The Third Round

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers amateur scouting department sent five second-round picks since 2010 (Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Curtis Hamilton, David Musil, Tyler Benson) to the NHL over the last decade. The third round has not been as successful. Photo by Rob Ferguson.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • New Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

THE THIRD ROUND

  • 2010: Ryan Martindale (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Samu Perhonen (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Travis Ewanyk (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Jujhar Khaira (218) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Daniil Zharkov (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Bogdan Yakimov (1) (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Anton Slepyshev (102) (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2016: Markus Niemelainen (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Matt Cairns (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Filip Berglund (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Stuart Skinner (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Dmitri Samorukov (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2019: Ilya Konovalov (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)

Martindale was a good math bet, Ewanyk a poor one. Khaira was a top-10 in the BCHL scorer in his draft year, that isn’t elite but he was a reasonable pick where they got him. Yakimov and Slepyshev were part of that MacT innovation trade string and I still think it was a fine idea. The 2016 draft looks poor now, maybe Berglund saves it. Samorukov looks plenty good so far and we’ll see about Konovalov.

If Slepyshev returns, and there’s been plenty of smoke, both the 2013 draft and the third round in the 2010’s might have a more impressive conclusion. As of this writing, my guess is Samorukov is the biggest hope among the group to play in 500 NHL games. Many miles of blacktop to go before we know much at all about this player but he is trending well.

Shot volume, foot speed and opportunity combined to move Jason Chimera from a distant bell as an AHL rookie to a point-per-game winger in the league in the final season of his entry deal. Edmonton has several hopefuls on the farm and viewing their performances through the Chimera lens is quite revealing.

This is a fascinating read from Pronman, he drills down on what scouts look for and I do believe trends have changed in the last several years. Analytics is making progress! The specific stuff about teams that draft well is also compelling.

I expect some who will read this blog were connected in some way to the tragic bus crash two years ago. It is such a difficult moment to comprehend and I won’t pretend to know the pain suffered by Moms and Dads who were impacted. I had no one directly connected to the crash and cried the weekend it happened, many times in the days that followed and while watching the Humboldt community’s memorial several days later.

All the words we use when someone suffers a loss came up short, and do through today. Yet it is important that we express our sorrow to those directly impacted. That’s community, that’s caring, that’s doing what we can to help in a small way.

Today, families and friends will mark the second anniversary quietly. I don’t know if that’s good or bad for those involved. I can tell you it remains with all of us, and our hearts go out to you. We are sorry for your loss, our thoughts are with you today.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have a packed show. The NHL is talking about playing in North Dakota (isolated area) as a possible solution, the EPL is talking about getting back to work and we’ll see how it goes. Guests today include John Sigler of The Saints Wire. We’ll chat about the legendary Tom Dempsey, who was an amazing kicker for the New Orleans Saints and a few draft items about the club. Jason Gregor will join us at 10:20 to chat about this possible return the NHL (and other leagues are discussing).

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Brantford Boy

Thanks LT! Cheers!

hunter1909

Oilers 2nd round drafting is atrocious.

Oilers 3rd round drafting + developing is criminally incompetent.

ArmchairGM

*has been. I don’t think you can say it still is.

BONE207

Wait till you see rounds 4 & 5…lol

defmn

For the years 2010 to 2015 inclusive 43 players drafted in the 3rd round have played more than a hundred games in the NHL.

Khaira and Slepyshev mean the Oilers have more than their share of this group.

Of those 43 only 13 have played more than 300 games. 3 from 2010, 3 from 2011, 5 from 2012, and 2 from 2013. Many of those totals will continue to grow, of course.

The Oilers have none of these.

meanashell11

My cousin’s son died in that crash.

And this weekend the Covid-19 got real as several of our friends who are nurses just called out of the blue. Wanting to catch up. They said they were scared and wanted to speak in case they never get the chance again. It was sad and very chilling at the same time. They are so brave. Knowing they go into the lion’s den every day just doing their job. Scared they will bring it home to their families at the end of their day.

It must be so hard.

As for my cousin, Toby, I’m thinking of you today.

pts2pndr

As I recall the Oilers brought both Martindale and Hamilton up the farm team when the had one year of junior remaining. They received minimal ice time which cost them their confidence. There was also an injury to Hamilton in the second year that didn’t help. The farm team priority was to win games not develop players which was wrong way thinking in my opinion.

godot10

This is not true. If Hamilton and Martindale had returned to junior, they would have been playing their overage seasons.

They are fall birthdays, like Bouchard and McLeod, who had one year of junior eligibility (apart from an overage season) left when drafted.

Highly prospective players essentially never return to junior for their overage seasons.

Yeti

I love the third round. It’s such a cool point in the draft with really intriguing high-risk, high-reward players still on the board and lots of obscure picks with interesting backstories that can be made… of course, I haven’t always loved Oiler picks in the 3rd round but the last couple are exactly the kind that I’d make. Berglund also.

OriginalPouzar

Samorukov and Skinner will both be prominent members of the Condors next year and both have legit NHL aspirations.

Berlgund is also a real prospect as we know and could be in the group above (and could even see NHL time next season) – with that said, Howson has mentioned that they could sign him and leave him in Sweden for one more year – I’m not sure why they’d do that.

Konovalov may be the prize of the group – years to tell on that one but he is a plus KHL goalie and his KHL deal is up after next season (interestingly, he’ll be able to sign with the Oilers at the same time the ELCs for Skinner and Wells expire).

Niemelainen is in the conversation for an NHL contract – he had a good development year and is now really a one-way defensive guy. Long shot for NHL games.

Slepy may be an 82 game Oiler next year – he may play on all lines.

OriginalPouzar

LT – how accurate are Eric Rogers TOI estimates for the Condors? If I’m not mistaken, he basis the estimates on “events”? Is that right?

I’m asking b/c I read your blog at The Athletic last night and both McLeod and Maksi has nominal PK TOI/G and I recall them been staples on the PK most of the year.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hat tip to Leadfarmer for the tip top suggestion of McMillion$. Fantastic viewing. Highly recommend.

Bank Shot

You have to go back to 1996 to find a quality pick in the third round for the Oilers.

Mind blowing. We talk a lot about bad decisions made by managers here over the years, but they’ve but continuously forced into taking knives to gun fights with the poor quality of scouting over the last 30 years.

Until the Oilers can start to occasionally nail real talent outside the top 3 in the draft they will always be an also ran.

Hopefully Holland is the one to finally get them on the right track there.

jp

BONE207:
Wait till you see rounds 4 & 5…lol

Those rounds have actually been better. I imagine LT will get to it in the coming days, but the Oilers 4th and 5th Rds this decade have produced Toby Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, Willy Lagesson, Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear.

jtblack

Bank Shot: Until the Oilers can start to occasionally nail real talent outside the top 3 in the draft they will always be an also ran.

Jones and Bear are the beginning of that ….. Bear playing Top 4 minutes is a game changer for the Org .. now hopefully they can keep doing it …

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Konovalov may be the prize of the group – years to tell on that one but he is a plus KHL goalie and his KHL deal is up after next season (interestingly, he’ll be able to sign with the Oilers at the same time the ELCs for Skinner and Wells expire).

Konovalov remains a strong prospect for sure, but this past season was a pretty big down arrow IMO.

He got drafted in the 3rd after being named KHL top rookie with a .930 SV% (7th of goalies with 30+ games).

This season he lost his starting job temporarily and finished with a .912 SV% (23rd of 26 KHL goalies with 30+ games).

Hopefully he gets back on track, but his numbers were not strong this year when placed in league context.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Wouldn’t that sort of be expected, though?

A .930 SV% would be unsustainable year-over-year in most any league.

What was the KHL league average SV% amongst starters?

Oil2Oilers

I was compiling some resources last night to aid my sister home schooling her son in math using hockey fancy stats. Wow, the decimation of seminal works and great resources is heartbreaking.

I was able to provide an old volume of Vollman’s hockey abstract, a link to the Athletic’s stats primer article, PuckIQ’s wonderful glossary and a few articles on score effects.

Any suggestions on further resources that are still live and available would be appreciated. Video explainers, about the stats themselves or the game state they are explaining would be especially welcome. Like the wonderful ones Dellow use to produce. As it allows for self directed study, my sister has the math and stats thing in the bag, but as a Health Canada Epidemiologist is using those skills elsewhere at moment.

JJS

Lokomotiv weren’t as strong this year either. They had 6 fewer wins and gave up more goals than last year (151-118).

May have been a factor

Oh, and MacT! Ha

jp: Konovalov remains a strong prospect for sure, but this past season was a pretty big down arrow IMO.

He got drafted in the 3rd after being named KHL top rookie with a .930 SV% (7th of goalies with 30+ games).

This season he lost his starting job temporarily and finished with a .912 SV% (23rd of 26 KHL goalies with 30+ games).

Hopefully he gets back on track, but his numbers were not strong this year when placed in league context.

Yeti

JJS:
Lokomotiv weren’t as strong this year either.They had 6 fewer wins and gave up more goals than last year (151-118).

May have been a factor

Oh, and MacT!Ha

MacT’s account of his time at Lokomotiv is definitely worth a read … not only for the Denis Grebeshkov sighting…
https://www.tsn.ca/craig-mactavish-inside-my-three-month-whirlwind-stint-in-the-khl-1.1393997

TheGreatBigMac

Thanks that was an interesting read.

Victoria Oil

meanashell11,

Sorry to hear about your cousin, my friend.

We all need to show our support and gratitude to the nurses and doctors on the front lines.

Stay safe and healthy.

meanashell11

You as well. Seems we are getting some better numbers out of NYC. Small sample and all and I know what that means around here! But hoping it’s either the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning!

I’ve been watching some games from this season on Center Ice, a nice distraction!

Gerta Rauss

TSN is replaying the 2003 Masters final round (Mike Weir) at 3pm PST if anyone is interested

OriginalPouzar

Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsportsOilers D Darnell Nurse just finished up a video conference call. The highlights:

– He’s keeping busy by cooking, mixing at his DJ station, lifting dumbbells, going for runs, watching ‘Tiger King’.
– He’s the team’s NHLPA rep; said no decision has been made re: last paycheque.

Re: the report about the possibility of the NHL playing games in North Dakota, Darnell Nurse said it’s “conflicting” for him. He’d ideally want to play in front of Oilers fans. However …
“I’d play in front of no fans in a heartbeat if someone told me I could keep playing.”

Named an alternate captain at the start of the season, Darnell Nurse said his place as a leader on the Oilers has grown over the years as his role has increased. “You wanna walk before you can talk.”

jp

OriginalPouzar:
LT – how accurate are Eric Rogers TOI estimates for the Condors?If I’m not mistaken, he basis the estimates on “events”?Is that right?

I’m asking b/c I read your blog at The Athletic last night and both McLeod and Maksi has nominal PK TOI/G and I recall them been staples on the PK most of the year.

The flip side: if they did in fact play more minutes than their eTOI suggests, that means they performed really well, no?

Munny

Not necessarily.

jp

How so?

Isn’t eTOI just calculating the number of goals (GF+GA) scored with a player on the ice vs total goals for the team to figure the proportion of minutes the individual played?

Munny

Dunno, but if actual TOI is greater than its proxy, then that means the player’s rates are lower than average. I don’t think we can infer from this adjustment a better or worse player. While I might be comforted by the lower event defense, the lower event offense is worrisome.

jp

Oh yeah, I absolutely agree overall. It would simply mean “high” or “low” event player which isn’t better/worse per se.

This was about PK TOI specifically though, so I think lower even pretty much has to be better, in this case.

hunter1909

Yeti: MacT’s account of his time at Lokomotiv is definitely worth a read … not only for the Denis Grebeshkov sighting…
https://www.tsn.ca/craig-mactavish-inside-my-three-month-whirlwind-stint-in-the-khl-1.1393997

I guess MacT is trying to tell us how life blows when your friend Kevin Lowe isn’t running the team you coach for lol

OriginalPouzar

Hollland was on Oilers Now this afternoon – just about to listen now while I blast out my treadmill sprints but he did confirm that Broberg will officially be back in Skelfeeta next season and he’s in contract talks with both Berglund and Niemeläinen.

Nothing we didn’t know but “news” I guess.

I’ll be curious where Berglund will play as Howson intimated that they may sign him but keep him in Sweden for another year. I would hope they bring him over.

defmn

OriginalPouzar:
Hollland was on Oilers Now this afternoon – just about to listen now while I blast out my treadmill sprints but he did confirm that Broberg will officially be back in Skelfeeta next season and he’s in contract talks with both Berglund and Niemeläinen.

Nothing we didn’t know but “news” I guess.

I’ll be curious where Berglund will play as Howson intimated that they may sign him but keep him in Sweden for another year.I would hope they bring him over.

Thanks OP. Really happy to hear the Berglund news confirmed from a second source. I’ll worry about where he plays after I hear for sure that he has been signed. 😉

RonnieB

Berglund will be 23 in May and has played about 200 SHL games. If he’s not ready to come over next season when there will be no competition on the RHD side in Bakersfield, will he ever be ready ?

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
Hollland was on Oilers Now this afternoon – just about to listen now while I blast out my treadmill sprints but he did confirm that Broberg will officially be back in Skelfeeta next season and he’s in contract talks with both Berglund and Niemeläinen.

Nothing we didn’t know but “news” I guess.

I’ll be curious where Berglund will play as Howson intimated that they may sign him but keep him in Sweden for another year.I would hope they bring him over.

Good spot on Oilers Now – nothing earth shattering but a couple points that caught my ear:

– lots of conference calls – weekly conference calls with pro scouts who are looking at tons of video – call with the Bakersfield staff, etc.

– still doing his modelling based off the cap projection earlier advised – acknowledges they need direction from the league at some point on that.

– Bob asked specifically about signing some higher end AHL guys to real (NHL contracts) and Holland did say that would like to spend some more down there. Team success is important for the development of the prospects (cited Bouchard playing in the playoff games the previous year) and some high end AHL players to help out the likes of Lavoie, McLeod, etc.

Now, I’m not sure if he’s talking about the Malone level (and I’m all-for bringing Malone back) but there could be a couple spots on the 50 eaten up by players in the AHL again (similar to Currie, etc.). I’m cool with this and don’t think he’s talking about “failed NHL experiments” like Granlund and Manning.

Munny

RonnieB:
Berglund will be 23 in May and has played about 200 SHL games. If he’s not ready to come over next season when there will be no competition on the RHD side in Bakersfield, will he ever be ready ?

The time is ripe for Berglund. I expect him to play 20-40 in Bako and then make the leap. Expect a Brogan Rafferty level career… if BR ever successfully makes the leap, that is.

Benning”s likely gone once Bergie shows he can play NA Hockey…. if not sooner.

Too bad, I’ve always liked the Matt Bennings and Brandon Davidsons of the hockey world. Been a lot of quality young 3rd pairing guys on the Oil over the decades. They always see to price themselves off the team.

OriginalPouzar

godot10:
This is not true. If Hamilton and Martindale had returned to junior, they would have been playing their overage seasons.

They are fall birthdays, like Bouchard and McLeod, who had one year of junior eligibility (apart from an overage season) left when drafted.

Highly prospective players essentially never return to junior for their overage seasons.

Yup – Ive read opinions on here that both Rodrigue and Lavoie should spend another year in junior and I see no reason for either to spend an over-age season in the Q.

I was somewhat on-board with maybe Safin spending another season in the Q as he lost essentially all of his last junior year to injury but with he would grind both the import and the over-age baskets so it wasn’t really a great option for the team.

pts2pndr

The problem was that the AHL coach didn’t play the kids. His priority was winning not development of the young players. Young players have to play. They would have been better served in junior than riding the bus and the bench in the A unless someone got hurt.

OilTastic

hunter1909,

the thing i didn’t like about Stu and his staff was though they were bang on with most of the 1st round picks, they fumbled the ball after that in draft after draft, though credit where it’s due in finding Khaira, Rieder, Gustafsson and Slepyshev, who’ll get another look and hopefully be better this time around. i was never all that impressed with Stu MacGregor as our head scout and was not sorry to see him go !!

OriginalPouzar

Bank Shot:
You have to go back to 1996 to find a quality pick in the third round for the Oilers.

Mind blowing. We talk a lot about bad decisions made by managers here over the years, but they’ve but continuously forced into taking knives to gun fights with the poor quality of scouting over the last 30 years.

Until the Oilers can start to occasionally nail real talent outside the top 3 in the draft they will always be an also ran.

Hopefully Holland is the one to finally get them on the right track there.

JJ Khaira has outperformed the expectations of a third rounder.

As far as the recet drafting by the Oilers, your post reads like its the same that its always been.

Bear and Jones are two mid-late round picks – one is already a huge part of the team at 22 and the other is now a legit NHL player that may be a huge part of the team.

The last 4 3rd round picks all have good or great arrows.

Nurse, Klefbom, Bouchard – all drafted out of the top 3 (or did you mean first 3 rounds?).

leadfarmer

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Hat tip to Leadfarmer for the tip top suggestion of McMillion$.Fantastic viewing.Highly recommend.

Glad you enjoyed it!!

Kinger_Oil.redux

Yeti: MacT’s account of his time at Lokomotiv is definitely worth a read … not only for the Denis Grebeshkov sighting…
https://www.tsn.ca/craig-mactavish-inside-my-three-month-whirlwind-stint-in-the-khl-1.1393997

– Is that the one where he says : pardon me , I spent sick $ on my MBA so I know a few things you likely don’t so listen and learn as I teach you stuff from my online tier-3 MBA

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: They’re estimates for sure but one thing that we have to remember is that there are limitations. A player can PK for the second half of the season (as an example) and his per game total will seem low.

As a guideline it is imperfect but has value imo.

Oh for sure it has value – I am not in any way trying to discredit the info Rogers provides – its highly useful and I thank him for it.

I’m just not sure they are accurate with those two and the PK.

I think they were used quite consistently on the PK through the season but maybe I am not remembering correctly.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Konovalov remains a strong prospect for sure, but this past season was a pretty big down arrow IMO.

He got drafted in the 3rd after being named KHL top rookie with a .930 SV% (7th of goalies with 30+ games).

This season he lost his starting job temporarily and finished with a .912 SV% (23rd of 26 KHL goalies with 30+ games).

Hopefully he gets back on track, but his numbers were not strong this year when placed in league context.

Nothing you say is incorrect but you glossed over an important point – his terrible start.

He really picked up his game after MacT was fired and, in particular around mid-season.

No, we can’t discount the bad start completely but, if we delved in to it, I think we’d find his splits encouraging.

We are encouraged by Bouchard’s splits aren’t we?

OriginalPouzar

Oil2Oilers:
I was compiling some resources last night to aid my sister home schooling her son in math using hockey fancy stats. Wow, the decimation of seminal works and great resources is heartbreaking.

I was able to provide an old volume of Vollman’s hockey abstract, a link to the Athletic’s stats primer article, PuckIQ’s wonderful glossary and a few articles on score effects.

Any suggestions on further resources that are still live and available would be appreciated. Video explainers, about the stats themselves or the game state they are explaining would be especially welcome. Like the wonderful ones Dellow use to produce. As it allows for self directed study, my sister has the math and stats thing in the bag, but as a Health Canada Epidemiologist is using those skills elsewhere at moment.

Natural Stat Trick is my go to for so much (although I am no fancies guru).

OriginalPouzar

Munny: The time is ripe for Berglund.I expect him to play 20-40 in Bako and then make the leap.Expect a Brogan Rafferty level career… if BR ever successfully makes the leap, that is.

Benning”s likely gone once Bergie shows he can play NA Hockey…. if not sooner.

Too bad, I’ve always liked the Matt Bennings and Brandon Davidsons of the hockey world.Been a lot of quality young 3rd pairing guys on the Oil over the decades.They always see to price themselves off the team.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Berglund make the NHL roster as 7D – probably not expected but it wouldn’t surprise me. Being a legit top 4 guy on a deep D in the SHL at 22 is significant – that is a good league and he’s played against men for a few years now.

Lets assume that Rusty is gone (please) but the rest are back:

Klefbom/Larsson
Nurse/Bear
Jones/Benning

Lagesson

One injury and I think Berglund could be #7 if they want to give Bouchard some last AHL reps – which I think its in line with Holland’s MO.

hunter1909

OilTastic:
hunter1909,

the thing i didn’t like about Stu and his staff was though they were bang on with most of the 1st round picks, they fumbled the ball after that in draft after draft, though credit where it’s due in finding Khaira, Rieder,Gustafsson and Slepyshev, who’ll get another look and hopefully be better this time around. i was never all that impressed with Stu MacGregor as our head scout and was not sorry to see him go !!

Methinks on this Stu McGregor, the blog in general suffered some kind of general breakdown. So hyped. So little results. So “Generation of Darkness” Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

OK, so they are looking for:

– baseball all in Arizona
– hockey in N. Dakota
– basketball in Vegas

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Wouldn’t that sort of be expected, though?

A .930 SV% would be unsustainable year-over-year in most any league.

What was the KHL league average SV% amongst starters?

In 18-19 (his draft year) his .930 was 7th of 29 goalies with at least 30 GP. The median was .922, so he was above average.

In 19-20 his .912 was 23rd of 26 goalies. The median was .928 so he was well below average.

Another thing to remember is that Konovalov was drafted as an overager, he turns 22 this summer. He needs to be an above average KHL goalie, considering his age, to be a strong prospect IMO.

The book is far from written but another season like the one he just had and he may not get a deal from the Oilers.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

Yeah I know he was drafted in his final year of eligibility, but even Price, Bob and The King have a tough time replicating stellar SV% year-over-year due to personal peaks, team performance, luck, injury, etc.

Being able to see his position in relation to the league median is informative though. Thanks for that.

Any chance you have the numbers relative to his peers in the late season period where his performance surged? He and Lokomotiv had a, um, rocky start to the year and that would (as OP mentions above) have an impact on his overall numbers.

jp

Your point about variability year to year is definitely fair, but I feel like his 2 year “average” ends up as a slightly below average KHL starter still. At his age that’s not a super exciting prospect (though his numbers last year give hope).

Unfortunately I don’t have any splits through the season. He definitely did have some recovery after a bad start, I don’t know exactly how much.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Nothing you say is incorrect but you glossed over an important point – his terrible start.

He really picked up his game after MacT was fired and, in particular around mid-season.

No, we can’t discount the bad start completely but, if we delved in to it, I think we’d find his splits encouraging.

We are encouraged by Bouchard’s splits aren’t we?

That’s a fair point. He did have a terrible start and recovered some. My memory is that he’d recovered (SV%) by mid-season and then continued at about the same level through the 2nd half. I don’t have the splits though, so not sure my memory is accurate here (if my recollection is accurate he was still below average in the 2nd half).

So yes, there was recovery, and it’s somewhat encouraging (though I’d also note this is kind of the situation with Mike Smith, where the overall body of work is not good enough despite a strong 2nd half. And most are not giving Mike Smith the benefit of the doubt).

jp

OriginalPouzar: I’ll be curious where Berglund will play as Howson intimated that they may sign him but keep him in Sweden for another year. I would hope they bring him over.

Munny: The time is ripe for Berglund. I expect him to play 20-40 in Bako and then make the leap. Expect a Brogan Rafferty level career… if BR ever successfully makes the leap, that is.

It would be interesting to know if the decision to stay another year in Sweden is the player or GMs (assuming it’s true).

It’s hard to imagine Holland not wanting Berglund in Bakersfield in the fall, so my guess is the player wants to stay in Sweden another year (he did already sign a new SHL contract after all).

If it’s Holland’s decision he must have some big plans for the RD depth chart!

OriginalPouzar

jp: That’s a fair point. He did have a terrible start and recovered some. My memory is that he’d recovered (SV%) by mid-season and then continued at about the same level through the 2nd half. I don’t have the splits though, so not sure my memory is accurate here (if my recollection is accurate he was still below average in the 2nd half).

So yes, there was recovery, and it’s somewhat encouraging (though I’d also note this is kind of the situation with Mike Smith, where the overall body of work is not good enough despite a strong 2nd half. And most are not giving Mike Smith the benefit of the doubt).

The big difference between Kovovalov and Smith is 16 years.

Konovalov is a developing prospect and inconsistency should be expected, no?

I know he’s an “older prospect” but we are talking about tenders here and developing tenders.

I give him a bit of rope in particular given his second half recovery.

OriginalPouzar

jp:
It would be interesting to know if the decision to stay another year in Sweden is the player or GMs (assuming it’s true).

It’s hard to imagine Holland not wanting Berglund in Bakersfield in the fall, so my guess is the player wants to stay in Sweden another year (he did already sign a new SHL contract after all).

If it’s Holland’s decision he must have some big plans for the RD depth chart!

I would think the org wants him to come over but this could be financially motivated by the player.

We are talking an ELC here so a 2-way deal and, while he could see NHL time, its reasonably likely most of the season would be spent in the AHL. I know some high AHL salaries and “guaranteed compensation” arrangements are available but I’m not sure they are for ELCs.

This could be a Joel Persson type arrangement where he signs his ELC with the Oilers but is loaned back to the SHL where his NHL contract year one burns and he can make his SHL salary.

jp

OriginalPouzar: – Bob asked specifically about signing some higher end AHL guys to real (NHL contracts) and Holland did say that would like to spend some more down there. Team success is important for the development of the prospects (cited Bouchard playing in the playoff games the previous year) and some high end AHL players to help out the likes of Lavoie, McLeod, etc.
Now, I’m not sure if he’s talking about the Malone level (and I’m all-for bringing Malone back) but there could be a couple spots on the 50 eaten up by players in the AHL again (similar to Currie, etc.). I’m cool with this and don’t think he’s talking about “failed NHL experiments” like Granlund and Manning.

Thanks for passing this stuff on by the way.

I guess these guys won’t be Granlund’s or Manning’s, but I’d guess if he’s giving them NHL contracts they’ll be legitimate NHL depth options. Guys that could realistically play some games, as Malone did in past years. They surely won’t be getting $1M on the NHL end of their deals though.

The Condors struggled this year. A few high end vets to help out is fine so long as the team isn’t filled with them. Tough to complain about Holland’s development pipeline in Detroit…

jp

OriginalPouzar: The big difference between Kovovalov and Smith is 16 years.

Konovalov is a developing prospect and inconsistency should be expected, no?

I know he’s an “older prospect” but we are talking about tenders here and developing tenders.

I give him a bit of rope in particular given his second half recovery.

If Smith had had a .910 or .915 SV% on the year I don’t think any would be opposed to bringing him back on a 1 year deal. He had a strong 2nd half, yet most ARE (rightfully IMO) against bringing him back.

I’m absolutely giving Konovalov some rope. All I said initially was his season wasn’t a good arrow, and I don’t think his 2nd half rebound was good enough to change that.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I would think the org wants him to come over but this could be financially motivated by the player.

We are talking an ELC here so a 2-way deal and, while he could see NHL time, its reasonably likely most of the season would be spent in the AHL. I know some high AHL salaries and “guaranteed compensation” arrangements are available but I’m not sure they are for ELCs.

This could be a Joel Persson type arrangement where he signs his ELC with the Oilers but is loaned back to the SHL where his NHL contract year one burns and he can make his SHL salary.

That’s a good point, I hadn’t thought about how his salary might suffer on an ELC vs in Sweden. I think the base AHL salary on ELC is always 70k or thereabouts (could be wrong). I’m not sure how much of a true signing bonus they can give on top of that. It wouldn’t take a ton to get him to his SHL contract though I wouldn’t think. The speculation was that Puljujarvi might be making 200k or something this year, right?

For sure this could be a situation like Persson’s though IIRC he was on record saying he felt he needed/wanted the extra development time since he was just coming off his first SHL season (so that may not have been at all about money). In any case, it will be interesting to see.

N64

OriginalPouzar: Re: the report about the possibility of the NHL playing games in North Dakota, Darnell Nurse said it’s “conflicting” for him. He’d ideally want to play in front of Oilers fans. However …
“I’d play in front of no fans in a heartbeat if someone told me I could keep playing.”

I see the 4 regional sites idea is also out there. Thought about both of these options as soon as Sharks fans got banned. Buried it between tildes, but if anything I was too optimistic. Missed the obvious fact that players would really want to get back home to families before this hit their cities and dressing rooms. But post peak and with some months to set up and do quarantine and training and with easy POC test kits (that do not steal lab capacity) this might be doable for August.


N64says:
March 9, 2020 at 8:52 pm
~ Any one have a remote arena complex with at least 4 good sheets where we can broadcast the Stanley Cup Hockalypse tournament from for a few months. No travel between games. ~
March 10, 2020 at 9:16 am
~ how about 4 neutral remote sites for the first 2 rounds and 1 site for the last 2 rounds. March Madness style without fans. ~

OriginalPouzar

jp: That’s a good point, I hadn’t thought about how his salary might suffer on an ELC vs in Sweden. I think the base AHL salary on ELC is always 70k or thereabouts (could be wrong). I’m not sure how much of a true signing bonus they can give on top of that. It wouldn’t take a ton to get him to his SHL contract though I wouldn’t think. The speculation was that Puljujarvi might be making 200k or something this year, right?

For sure this could be a situation like Persson’s though IIRC he was on record saying he felt he needed/wanted the extra development time since he was just coming off his first SHL season (so that may not have been at all about money). In any case, it will be interesting to see.

Maximum signing bonus is 10% of the max comp of $925K so $92.5K and, yes, I just checked the CBA and maximum AHL salary is $70K.

Ya, Persson could have had some financial motivation as well as, given his age, his ELC was just one year and it burnt while in Europe allowing him to sign a one-way deal for last season – He made his cool $1M even though he spent half the year in the minors.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Maximum signing bonus is 10% of the max comp of $925K so $92.5K and, yes, I just checked the CBA and maximum AHL salary is $70K.

Ya, Persson could have had some financial motivation as well as, given his age, his ELC was just one year and it burnt while in Europe allowing him to sign a one-way deal for last season – He made his cool $1M even though he spent half the year in the minors.

The Persson case makes some sense since he had the ability to wait a year then have a big NHL payday (while also getting a 2nd year of SHL experience).

Would he or Berglund make any more in Sweden though than on an ELC with max bonus ($162.5k)? Maybe they would. And I guess playing at home for the same money would be pretty appealing in a lot of cases.

A Berglund ELC would need to be for 2 years though, so it’d be a 2 year wait before he could sign a one way deal. And as noted the Oilers depth chart looks like a pretty nice landing spot for him right now…