I’ll be interested to see how Stan Bowman handles the Darnell Nurse trade. It feels like the ship has sailed and the veteran defenseman is gone, but what if the return is inadequate? I suspect the team is too far along now, it’s going to happen.
You know, there was a time when the Oilers could find good players who didn’t destroy the cap. Steve Staios and Jan Hejda were good players who had NHL careers of note after signing in Edmonton. Hejda didn’t last long with the Oilers, but was one of several inexpensive additions over the past 25 years.
Here’s a quick list: Staois, Hejda, Marc-Andre Bergerson, Curtis Glencross, Brad Hunt, Jordan Oesterle, Mark Arcobello, Iiro Pakarinen, Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Ty Rattie, Klim Kostin, James Hamblin, Vincent Desharnais, Troy Stecher, Max Jones.
I think Damien Carfagna might be the next one, or maybe Atro Leppanen or Owen Michaels. The point is that with Nurse, you want room to wheel under the cap. So, when we’re talking about dealing him to the Pittsburgh Penguins, I think the pro scouting staff needs to identify a Staios, Hejda or Desharnais. What is his name? Hell if I know, but I’d be interested in reading the scouting report on Finn Harding. He’s 6.02, 192, RH and had a strong AHL season in 2025-26. He’s 21. Can he skate? Move the puck? The Oilers have never won a Stanley without a Finn on the roster, and this guy’s name is Finn!
I think Stan Bowman should try to trade all of the Nurse cap hit, and if the team gets an unknown prospect then the pro scouts better have gotten it right. That gives Bowman a chance to deal for Jordan Kyrou or sign both Connor Mutphy and Jason Dickinson.
If Finn isn’t the Oilers huckleberry, the cost is merely a line in the guide and record book. The key is the cap, try to grab a Klim slow slider if you can and then spend the money wisely. That’s the play here.
Despite 90% or so of the players being right handed there is a dearth of right handed players 😀
Stan needs to have Philly and Pitts in an auction against each other driving the price up. No retain, good young player in return.
Ryan Shea …
Was drafted in 2015 by Stan Bowman’s Chicago Blackhawks.
Shea went onto play 4 years at Northeastern before turning pro. His climb through the AHL to the NHL has been slow, with only 70 GP up until this past season.
This past season however, 80 GP 6-29-35 and +30!!! This guy literally came out of nowhere.
Plenty of flags though: Shea averaged about 18 mins / game and was limited in the playoffs. He is not a minute-munching 2nd pairing, more of a 3rd pair guy who can move the puck well. Think Brad Hunt.
This is not a Darnell Nurse replacement. There are no off-the-shelf second-pair LD options. This both improves the trade market for Nurse and also makes the prospect of trading him risky for 2026 Stan Bowman.
It needs to be said again: The Oiler’s braintrust has proven to be well below championship level in their trades, signings and roster construction. It won’t magically change, we fans just have to accept it. Another DOD isn’t far away. The Nurse trade will most likely be a head scratcher, Babcock doesn’t have the horses to ‘save’ the team and the goaltending is chaos. I agree with you, we need elite level goaltending to be a true contender. Problem is the management appears to be incapable of drafting, developing or trading for one. I have really low expectations for the offseason.
That is an opinion – not a fact – not shoes by all.
It can be said but saying it does not make it true, nor does it means its wrong.
It could be argued that it’s fact based on the fact they haven’t won anything despite being gifted one of the greatest players of all time and many lottery wins.
The Athletic lists Dickinson as one of the top UFAs to avoid:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7374272/2026/06/19/nhl-free-agency-players-to-avoid-2026-offseason/
Good . Edmonton might be able to sign him for cheap.
Paying a guy that produces at Dickinson’s rates while the last few years has been unable to stay healthy is a poison pill.
Anything over 2.5 is a severe overpay imo, there’s no reason to entertain his asks.
What Would Dellow Do?
Not sign him
Noel Acciari might be a decent alternative to Dickinson. RW with good PK stats, decent at faceoffs, some offense, not expensive.
Regarding a potential Nurse trade I see only 2 options. You either trade him with no retention and get a very marginal asset back, or you retain 3 million or more and get a significant addition (eg: Spencer Knight and a first). If those deals aren’t out there I would just hang on to him.
Regarding the coaching soap opera. This team does not, nor did they have, a coaching problem. They have an ongoing management problem. The loss of Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets was just the latest in a long line of talent depleting moves and bad contract bets that this organization has made. Worrying about who the next coach is going to be is a bit like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Knoblauck had a poor season – questionable decisions from train camp to game 6 against the Ducks – deployment, structure, adjustments, ability to get his player to play near their top games.
This isn’t to say that roster couldn’t have been better or that Knob is not a good coach but he did not have a good season.
KK being in control of his bench and how he went about the season was a monumental problem.
I see the point you are trying to make. But I must agree with others here, the coach or at least the coaching was a big part of the problem. With what we now know today, this is well confirmed.
They most certainly had a coaching problem. Any other issues doesn’t change this.
Urban Legend: If you say Jordan Kyrou three times into the mirror he will appear and waive his NTC.
fixation
nounUK /fɪkˈseɪ.ʃən/ US /fɪkˈseɪ.ʃən/
fixation noun
the state of being unable to stop thinking about something or someone, or an unnaturally strong interest in something or someone
I haven’t written in a while. I’m so disillusioned with this team and its choices. Mike Babcock. Really? Am I in a nightmare?
Anyway, if the rumoured Nurse to Pittsburgh trade is true (no talk about the return) I am worried. Bowman got taken to the shed in his last trade with Pittsburgh. Does it happen again or does he say you take all the cap hit and give me a decent return because you owe me massively after the Jarry trade.
I have absolutely zero belief in-actually less than zero- this team and its management to do something good with its decision making.
Stauffer and Rishaug were saying that there is a chance we keep Nurse yesterday on Stauffers show. Said it’s not like when they felt they needed to move Skinner. Im guessing that is because they aren’t getting offers they like or are being asked to retain too much.
I agree on Carfagna. If he was a strong summer and picks up where he left off last year and continues to develop, he could be legit call up option. He’s the type of “find, develop, plug and play” that we are sometimes pop on other teams.
Far from a sure thing but he has a strong skill set and is a very smart player and under-rated transitionor of the puck. If only he had 2 more inches.
Maybe he can pack on 8 more pounds or add 7% to his skating.
The reality is Carfagna will be an option this year. With injuries/illness, you realistically have to think the Oilers will play 10 d-men (conservatively) and that puts him in range for a call-up.
For sure but he still could open the season as 8th/9th on the depth chart right, even with a Nurse trade, right?
Bouchard
Ekholm
Walman
Murphy
Emberson
3LD upgrade with Nurse trade
Stastney
Regula
Carfagna/Leppanen
Also, Riley Stilman is signed for next season and do we have any idea what this Tomas Cibulka guy could be – I presume he’s a full time AHL guy but I don’t know anything about him.
All depends on what they get back in a Nurse trade, or if they sign one of the FA’s this summer.
Even if they trade Nurse and get no-one back on D and sign Murphy, that still puts him 8/9, right? Maybe 10 depending on Stilman.
I think he works his way up but I don’t think he’s “guaranteed games” due to lack of depth necessarily.
Roalovic, Podkolzin, Brown, Perry, Samanski, Savoie, Emberson, Ingram, Perry
You listed perry twice, probably by mistake or is it forshadowing to him coming back
Definitely mistake – I make many.
Pickard.
Your writing never ceases to amaze me LT! Cheers!
Sounding more and more like Nurse to the Pens. Some interesting options. The Pens have three young RWers they may be trying to make room for in Chinakhov, McGroarty, and Hayes. Plus they have Rust, Rakell, Brazeau, and may try to bring Mantha back. Appears to be a log jam on the right side there while the Oilers have vacancy.
Doubt they move Novak or Acciari as they both huge parts of the Pens success last year. Not to say some of the RWer mentioned above weren’t, but if they’re trying to make space for youth then one of Rust, Rakell, or Brazeau should shake loose.
Rust and Rakell have nearly identical contracts at ~$5M with 2yrs remaining. They’re almost exactly one year apart with Rakell being 1yr younger. Rakell is 6’1 194lbs, Rust is 5’11 202lbs.
Rust has played less games, despite being older, 710 versus 862 GP. Both play 19 to 20 minutes per game all strenghts. Over their careers, Rakell has 0.66pts/g pace, Rust 0.71pts/g.
Zooming in on their last 3 seasons Rakell is 211gp and 0.73 pts/g, Rust is 204gp and 0.91 pts/g. Rakell with 74 goals, Rust with 88 goals. In 2025-2026 at 5v5 Rust with 1.02 g/60, Rakell with 0.94 g/60.
Digging a bit deeper into the fancies I find they have nearly the same oZS% and dZS% at 5v5 and very similar CF%, Rakell 1% higher at 49.8%. For GF% / xGF%, Rakell 55% / 52.2%, Rust 53.6% / 49.9%.
(As an aside Ryan Shea led in GF% at 58%, while Novak led in xGF% at 54%)
In the playoffs, not much to differentiate either. Rakell a 0.43% pt/g, Rust 0.44 pt/g.
The biggest differentiating stat I could find was on the PK. Rust played 115min versus Rakell 35min in 25-26.
Not a lot to choose from between the two. Rust perhaps has a slight edge due to goal scoring and PK.
I just hope Bowman doesn’t convince himself that taking Graves back in this deal is worth it. If he does there better be some draft capital coming back, a 2nd minimum.
Knowing Bowman I can see the deal being Nurse $1.25M retained for Rakell, Graves, and a 2nd.
My preference would be Nurse $2.25M retained for Rust (would still prefer Rakell instead of the deal above).
Nice breakdown. If they went this way it’s a drain on the team overall, they are too old. Nurse is a significant NHL player, and the return should be a younger player that can do enough now
That is how you avoid ‘windows’ by trading older established players for younger ones. They may not be able to move him with such a small list of teams and get a satisfactory return as they see it
Good point and agree not ideal. Perhaps one of the young wingers is the target. Suspect Chinakhov or McGroarty would increase the odds of a Graves coming back.
For one of those two wingers and $0 retained (or very little) would you consider taking Graves back if that was the Pens best offer?
Find it hard to believe that Dubas would be willing deal youth for an older d-man given the same point you make above about “windows”, if you can still even call it that for the Pens.
True, which is why the short list might make it not possible to move him
Following most of the Pens post-season interviews and coverage, it seems likely Mantha will not be re-signing there. He had a great comeback regular season for the Pens, but Dubas indicated they are looking for “mid-late 20’s difference making players”. Dubas said something in his end of season presser about “Mantha’s intentions are clear”. He’s likely going to free agency to try to capitalize on that. So that gives them flexibility.
In spite of no longer having a NMC (per Puckpedia), I get the impression Rust is an important piece to that room, and plays a big role in speaking for the team in the media – like every game, and is one of those clutch players for them. He could be in play due to his age, but I’d be a bit surprised if he gets traded.
Thanks for info on Mantha and agree on Rust. Think that would likely disrupt the leadership group too much. That said, even without including Mantha there still seems to be a log jam on RW for those younger players. Which leads me to believe Rakell has a high likelihood of being moved.
Thanks for the breakdown. Novak looks like Nuge-light from a distance, and imo they don’t need to shop in that aisle.
I’d rather see Tippett come back than what Pitt seems to have to offer fit wise
Nuge who was the 3rd highest scoring forward on the team while being a complete fall off the ledge bum.
I’d take more Nuge’s.
I have 2 chapters of “The Game of Our Lives”. Man I miss Slats!!
Great points LT. A lot of discussion around here is around what players are the right ones to ‘fix’ problems. I see it more like a rising tide floats all boats. It is different for top offensive players, they are rare, most fall into the regular NHL player category, the ones that will contribute in the right structure, and aren’t highly paid as you said – depth. The OIlers can’t afford much more for high paid players, even with a rising cap. Bouch and Connor will eat that soon enough
Raddysh had a great season less because he finally figured it out, and more that he plays on an established, organized team with a strong coaching staff, and he got opportunity and took it. He is a good player, but he’s not a top tier player, or he would have pushed his way up before he was 30. It’s likely he doesn’t do as well on the Leafs. There is an outside chance he is the next Giordano, but that is rare
Murphy had an impact on the Oilers, and he’s a basic solid player that goes hard and has NHL skill sets – can skate and pass well enough, and can think the game. The guys that are tempting are the Stastneys and Roslovics, but the holes in their games cause problems especially in the playoffs. The pro scouts need to find players that have rounded their games out, even if they are a little less flashy. Guys the coaches aren’t afraid to play or have to shelter. It’s so often those players that have an outsized impact in the playoffs
Finn Harding is a right-handed, two-way defenseman drafted 223rd overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. Known for his smart, defense-first approach, the 6’2″, 192-lb blueliner steadily improved his offensive game, recording 57 points in 67 games for the OHL’s Brampton Steelheads before signing his entry-level contract.
Scouts have noted that his foot speed and skating stride require continued development to keep up with the professional pace. He can also improve by taking more initiative in the offensive transition rather than waiting for the play to come to him.
Sounds like another Ty Emberson at best.
The name Owen Pickering peaks my interest in a deal with the Pens.
The Raddysh contract gives me hope the Oilers can dispose of the entire Nurse contract and get a decent return. Same with the Seth Jones trade
A similar return to Jones would be fantastic, but Chicago did retain 2.5M in the Jones trade to get that strong return.
The cap was significantly lower then
It likely does the opposite.
Raddysh is a right shot D which demands a premium. 7 of the highest paid D in the league are right shot.
He has one of the hardest point shots in the NHL and despite breaking out much later than Nurse, he has actually out scored Nurse for the past 3 seasons despite playing fewer minutes.
Perhaps the return the Leafs get for Morgan Rielly whose cap hit is $7.5 million will be more instructive.
Cool story bro.
I would recommend taking a logical reasoning or symbolic logic class. I think you would learn a lot.
He probably already has.
I would recommend you figure out why the Oilers need to trade Nurse and then what the impediments to the transaction might be.
At this point, neither Rielly or Nurse are top pairing D although Nurse is paid like one.
In the past season in which Rielly was heavily criticized for his play, he actually out performed Nurse
Nurse – GF% – 44.4
Rielly – GF% – 46.2
Nurse – P/60 – 0.82
Rielly – P/60 – 1.16
Nurse – EVP – 22
Rielly – EVP – 30
Nurse – PPP – 0
Rielly – PPP – 6
Nurse – TOI/G – 20:58
Rielly – TOI/G – 21:08
Cap Hit:
Nurse – $9.25M X 4
Rielly – $7.5M X 4
So, logically, a GM looking to add a second pairing LD is much more likely to opt for Rielly than Nurse thus the return for Rielly should be instructive.
What the return is for Nurse is no way to connected to a right shot PP quarterback since Nurse is neither of those things.
Oops. Sorry. I didn’t mean to upset you. I should have added a trigger warning to my post.
Many important stats missing in this:
Nurse PP TOI- 19.4
Reilly PP TOI- 178
Nurse PK TOI- 122.5
Reilly PK TOI- 55
Evens Ozone Starts
Nurse- 52.3%
Reilly- 65.4%
Expected goals for- expected goals against
Nurse- 65.6-65.9=-0.3
Reilly- 63.1-71.5= -8.4
I don’t have quality of competition metrics but I’d suggest Nurses was higher.
Raddysh contract takes him to 38. He popped this year at age 30. Nurse contract goes to age ~34.
Nurse gets d-zone starts, Raddysh doesn’t. Nurse is a defensive player. Points don’t matter so much for his player type
This is the only person outside of Toronto, fan or media or blogger, that brings this opinion – at least that I’ve seen.
Not everyone things its a terrible, or even bad, contract but almost no-one discounts the risk of a one-year pop at 30 with circumstances unless, of course, one is looking or any way to provide a negative viewpoint towards the Oilers and decides to build a narrative that this contract makes Nurse look worse.
Morgan Reilly cant skate. Important trait in the NHL
Binnington, Bobrovsky and similar – why am I continuing to hear these names as suggestions for the Oilers. The two listed were both awful last season and old and expensive. Jarry is no worse than them as far as reasonable expectations for this coming season.
Team commits to structured hockey, and during the regular season, and most goalies will perform just fine behind a more predicable game in front – including Jarry, including Ingram, including Cossa (I think) and incident Stuart Skinner.
And Montenbault? Why commit to $3MM plus? Go spend the 2nd and Leppanen and get Cossa – he’s likely as good, or better, with legit top 10 upside.
Can they go into the season with Jarry and Cossa? That seems high risk no?
Any higher risk than Jarry and Bobrovsky or Binnington or Fredie Anderson or Montenbault or UPL? All of those goalies can be very good or awful (well, Anderson has never been awful but he’s always hurt).
My premise is fully on team play improving in front of the goalies and creating an envronemtn where Tristan Jarry will be able to bounce back and have a solid season – like he’s done 7 or so times in his career and like he was doing pre-trade last season.
If the team does that, I think Jarry and whoever will be fine. If the team can’t do that, I think Jarry and whoever will be terrible.
Yes, I agree that Ingram provides a certain floor and established consistency, and I’m fine with Jarry/Ingram (or Ingram/Jarry) but I’ll take the bet on a top 10 goalie upside in Cossa if its in the 2nd round pick range – that’s a reasonable bet for me, with legit upside if it hits.
It is not, and hasn’t in recent years, been a “goalie problem.” It’s a “team won’t play 200 feet problem.”
But always, blame the goalie (or coach) when things fall apart.
Last season, goalies fired. Didn’t help.
Post season, coaches fired. “We wait.”
I would suggest thats also a coaching problem.
Leaders feel they are paid to score. Coach can’t real them in because in fact, they are paid to score. He needs goals, will not sacrifice any of their ice time for another responsible player.
Sub-leaders follow the leaders in helping them score, they are also not responsible defensively. Coach cannot hold them accountable to defence.
Next teir of player sits on the bench and watches. Coach cannot involve them or motivate them. Scoring goals is the top lines problem.
Oversimplified of course. But reason I was out on the coach after 30 games.
I’m with you on that. Shopping in the Guide and Record book rarely works. Find the next version of those guys, Don’t overpay for the OG expiring version
Because Daryl may like Binn or Bob.
I understand there is lots of talk about the owner being involved (leading) the Babcock thing, and I get that. I don’t believe the owner is/will be instructing on the goalie and that is full on Bowman.
Stauff saying last night it’s not a foregone conclusion that Nurse gets moved.
MacT thought it will take a while. Could be in season or deadline
Sure, fair enough.
I would suggest that MacT is providing simple personal opinion and, while Stauff does provide some personal opinion his speculation on things like this have more teeth and fact behind them.
I wouldn’t be against a full season of the Nurse-Murphy pairing. But….
Their underlying numbers weren’t as good but their actual goal share together was fantastic, both regular season and playoffs. I think they were 7-3 in goals in the playoffs.
I wouldn’t be against seeing it – it MAY be a better option that would happen with a Nurse trade (there are so many ways that could go) or it may not.
I think we are probably to far gone to not see the trade though, right?
Was there any underlying numbers with a Walman-Murphy pair? I don’t believe so.
I wouldn’t be against that pair either.
Is this Babcock’s first personnel decision?
sounds like tide is turning. Maybe:
all the quiet fanes spoke up, counterweight to all the vocal fans
leadership group wants Nurse , if you are going to piss them off. you better find help
Nurse trade is not easily winnable
Nurse – Murphy pairing is re-assessed
Babcock looking at physicality of club, his veteran anchor dmen
Maybe someone like Walmans health is still questionable
Murphy and/or Dickinson ask is higher than expected
9.25 suddenly not looking like much of an overpay