For many years I’ve looked at AHL even-strength numbers as a possible guide to future NHL success. Conclusion: Doesn’t work. Now, it doesn’t work for boxcar numbers that include all game states either, but we are missing some key pieces of information. It’s a damnable life when you exist in the dark ages, without AHL time-on-ice or minor-league foot speed metrics. Please read this.
In recent years, we have started to see NHL speed numbers posted and that can inform us about prospects who did and did not make it. Here are the even-strength numbers for the last 20-ish years (rookie forwards):
Ike Howard tops the list, followed by Tyler Benson because of course. Cooper Marody isn’t on this list because he was 21 as a rookie, and the only older freshman are Howard and Hutson this season. What are the speed numbers for these men, and do those speed numbers identify the men who did not make it as NHL players? Here’s the same list with max skating speed as a percentile (where available):
This is the group above 50 percent. Leon Draisaitl is at the 93rd percentile and he isn’t carrying around Matt Savoie’s body weight. Leon is an actual unicorn. Ike Howard performs well, as does Savoie. I’m a little surprised Ryan McLeod isn’t higher, and Tyler Pitlick’s foot speed is being tracked later in his career. We can conclude he was much higher than 55th percentile in his early 20’s.
Now for the group who are under 50 percent, and there are some surprises. I’ll give you my opinion on why some of these fellows are slow trains (according to NHL Edge):
So explanation is needed here. Kailer Yamamoto is basically league average and was 71st percentile in 2021-22. The league has punished him over these five seasons. That could be a tell for other young forwards who are undersized.
Dylan Holloway is also just shy of average, and we know that high ankle sprains impact max speed. He was in the 81st percentile in 2023-24. I don’t know how much erosion takes place naturally, but would guess Holloway’s pace is much slower than it should be for an athlete his age with this resume.
Tyler Benson missed out on the NHL due to injuries that impacted his foot speed. I don’t know if that’s applicable for Quinn Hutson, and I don’t know if Hutson’s small sample size represents true speed. I do know that Connor Clattenburg’s speed now is a match for a healthy Jujhar Khaira so there is an avenue to the NHL for him.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will drop in to talk about the Oilers transactions (Savoie to Bakersfield, goodness knows what else) and we’ll talk Olympics, too. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Oilers lines after the break: The real ones and four re-imagined trios.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7052616/2026/02/18/edmonton-oilers-forward-lines-olympics/
Jarventie just huge in the Condors comeback from down 3-0 to a 4-3 regulation win.
After being all over the opposition for a full period, Jarventie gets one that counts, banging home a rebound of a Carfagna shot that was put back in the cease by Poulin and 3 third period goals tie the game up.
A goal of the year candidate by Jarventie wiped out by a phantom goalie interference call.
More offence off a defensive risk still, Griffith with the transition, over to Hamblin even with the defender, blows by him wide, in alone. Snipe.
Down 3-2
Forward PK goals against/60
23-24
Player GA/60
Warren Foegele 3.3
Ryan McLeod 4.2
Connor Brown 6.7
Mattias Janmark 7.6
Derek Ryan 9.2
Ryan Nuge 10.0
24-25
Vasily Podkolzin 5
Adam Henrique 6.8
Mattias Janmark 8.1
Ryan Nuge 8.4
Connor Brown 8.8
25-26
Connor McDavid 3.9
Adam Henrique 6.8
Matt Savoie 8.0
Mattias Janmark 9.4
Vasily Podkolzin 10.6
Ryan Nuge 10.9
as rev.hans pointed out below, Henrique is still a good penalty killer it appears. He was leading the forwards in PK TOI/GP. Actually probably a pretty good reason to have him in the lineup somewhere maybe on the 4th line if he can’t handle 3line.
Savoie 2nd in PK TOI/GP. I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Janmark struggling.
As a benchmark, the league average ga/60 this year on the PK is 7.2.
Great goal, defensive rush stop, could quick transition passes, Jarventie leads the 3 on 2, slick cross pass to Poilin, back to middle for Leppanen who buries it.
Down 3-1 (flow of play even).
Rewatched the 3rd period and OT with Mrs Buddy after she got home from work. I can’t recall ever seeing a too many men incident as bad as the Czechs’ 3rd goal.
And it wasn’t just the refs who missed it, nobody on the Team Canada bench seemed to have picked it up either. Crazy.
I was kind of nervous before today’s game because I think Czechia (and Slovakia for that matter) are underrated and Dostal has the ability to steal a game.
Then I got even more nervous last night when that Craig Button guy implied that Czechia had almost no chance of winning.
Thankfully the hockey gods smiled upon us in the end. But some people don’t realize that a winner take-all game is not the same as a best of seven.
Go Canada!
I had a look at our PK stats as rates which involves some manual work. Someone pointed out on Twitter how Nurse’s goals allowed on the PK are much worse than anyone else’s so I looked into it.
This is a list for defencemen goals against/60 at 4 on 5 – I included anyone over 40 minutes of TOI on the PK.
2023-24
Player GA/60
Darnell Nurse 10.0
Vincent Desharnais 8.2
Cody Ceci 7.2
Brett Kulak 6.6
Mattias Ekholm 5.4
2024-25
Darnell Nurse 11.9
Mattias Ekholm 9.3
Brett Kulak 7.1
Ty Emberson 6.3
Troy Stecher 4.0
2025-26
Darnell Nurse 10.0
Ty Emberson 9.1
Mattias Ekholm 7.9
Evan Bouchard 7.6
Brett Kulak 5.6
Nurse and his partner lead the team in GA/60 every season on the PK, and the three highest values in the dataset all belong to him. It is too bad we lost Kulak and Stecher as, especially Kulak had excellent results on the PK. Our PK also dipped significantly after he was traded this year. I am using actual goals instead of expected as I don’t really see a reason not to with fairly large samples and I have no idea if xG would capture the quality of chances just by looking at shot location.
For reference, the worst PKs in the league this year (VAN and SEA) are allowing 10.35 and 10.60 ga/60 on the PK.
I will post the forwards later if anyone is interested. But in summary – Vasily (10.6), Nuge (10.9) and Janmark (9.4) are struggling on the PK this year. McDavid is other worldy good (3.9 ga/60) but is surprisingly not the best forward in the sample – that would be Warren Foegele in 23-24 with 3.33 ga/60.
Notable RD that have good PK stats this year – note these probably aren’t great to compare team to team as there are a lot of variables – but these all have > 50 TOI on the PK this year:
-Stecher (2.3 GA/60)
-Connor Murphy (4.9)
-Vinny Desharnais (5.1)
-Zach Whitecloud (6.1)
-John Marino (6.7)
-Neal Pionk (7.3)
-Dylan DeMelo (7.4)
They should probably ease off the minutes for Darnell as much as they can – hopefully the 2RD they bring in can do that. Walman also does not have great PK stats but they could also try giving him some of Nurse’s minutes. Nurse is also 4th amongst D in PK TOI/GP so they must understand he is part of the problem.
Henrique? My quick gloss on PK before/after he got hurt shows a much better PK before and much worse after. But I didn’t dig too deep.
Yes good eye – he has the best results this year after McDavid – 6.8 ga/60. Same with 24-25 he was second (6.8) best (after Podz).
the combination of him being out and Kulak being traded probably explains some of the decline.
I looked at this a bit over the beak and the GA/60 difference with him on the PK is materially better, I think it was like 3 GA/60 better, or in that range.
Regula on a conditioning stint does not take his cap away (or his roster spot).
Canada will battle Finland on Friday at 8:40 a.m. Provost time.
My dear recently-departed mother was a Provostonian.
I am sorry for your loss.
Condolences
Condolences to you and yours.
Sigh. Good game, Sweden. Just not enough.
Markstrom losing in Overtime in a do-or-die situation where have I seen that before.
That was one hell of a shot off the post straight down broadway. Sometimes you have to give credit when credit is due.
I think that’s his point – similar goal to McD’s in ’23
Was my exact thought. The ping off the post and all.
Finland it is.
It’s been a good day to watch hockey – all the ‘rested’ teams pulled off wins.
They may take our lives, but they’ll never take our freedom! For Greenland! For Denmark! Woot!
Awesome. Sweden has a real chance.
Woot!
My American wife was not pleased with my cheering.🤣🤣🤣
*she does however understand my disdain for the classless Tkachidiots though, she can’t stand them either.
What else but a late tie-ing goal? More OT???
Team Canada kind of reminds me of the Oilers. Obvious talent, but at times overpassing and looking for the perfect goal. But I am glad they survived that game and hoping they come out better for the final two. Maybe it will be good for them – some tight games are coming up. All these teams are good at this stage. Even with a superteam you can’t play everyone all the time. So the team is only as good as the line that’s on the ice. Depth still wins games – it won the game for Canada today.
Go Sweden! Still in it. The US jerseys look off to me, the giant striping makes them look like candy canes.
Completely agree. I also see similarities with Oilers. The Czech team also played a hard nosed thug type game with enough talent to capitalize – also reminiscent of the Panthers.
With this type of match up, and top line being bloked, once again we see the win coming from the depth.
Bowman can only supply the coach with a good competitive roster. Coach has to maximize them from there. In this case, all the attention needs to go into developing useful youth, and developing a strong and contributing bottom six.
For Canada in the parts I was able to watch, I thought that they weren’t making plays to players in front, and no one was finding soft ice to be set up. So lots of low percentage solo efforts, some of which went back the other way
Gudas said it simply, they took away the middle ice, so Connor couldn’t get wheeling (no mention of MacKinnon interestingly). Very reminiscent of the panthers playing the Oilers, as was the Canadians response and difficulty dealing with it
I think breaking that type of defense requires a plan. Just relying on great plays leaves far too much to luck and bounces for me. Almost every team plays the Oilers like that now, and that the coaches haven’t come up with a working counter means we get to hear a lot that we got ‘goalied’ again
I think that part of the over passing comes from it being hard to penetrate 5 players in front. Having a plan of attack I think would reduce that as players would know what they are trying to do. When something comes open then they can use skill, like Marner did when he saw what he called a hole I think
In the Czech game once Marner got a great true high danger shot off, Dostal didn’t look like Tretiak. Many of his saves were not that hard to make I thought
It’s pretty unusual for Sweden to be this disjointed. They’re usually a team I think of as being stronger than the sum of its parts. They haven’t shown that so-far.
C’mon show us your big juicy meatballs, Sweden!
They need Ekholm! Lol
Missing Hedman is big, but yeah, they’re usually so buttery and precise, disjointed is a good way of putting it for sure.
When Sweden gets their chances they’re making one too many passes. That was awful, a moment ago.
Savoie is on the ice with the Condors this morning but won’t ply tonight.
Tomkins starts. Ungar backs-up. Pickard chills and watches
Do they want him to ply his trade elsewhere?
McAvoy would look awfully good on the Oilers, can we exchange him for Nurse and their same cap hits? Lol
Is that Victor Hedman stapled to the Swedes bench? Anyone know the story?
Commentators said he ‘tweaked something in warmup’?!?
Sweden looking like they could use any help available
I really hope McDavid breaks out of his slump for the next game, bad timing to stop averaging a point per period.
Has anyone asked him if he’s injured yet?
Matt Porter
@mattyports
2h
Stone asked abt Marner’s rep for not coming up big.
“As a teammate, I haven’t experienced that. 4Nations, gets a huge OT goal for us, makes an incredible play for the winner. Then tonight, when we need him the most, he makes the play.
“So, um … I think it’s a Toronto thing.”
Feb 18, 2026 · 6:58 PM UTC
The Czech Republic was playing 7 on 6 hockey when they got their 3-2 goal. They had the extra player on the ice for it looks like 20 seconds or so, end-to-end.
With Finland vs. Switzerland I was almost ambivalent about who won. My heart is more aligned with the Finns, but I like how plucky the Swiss are.
But for near-any team vs. the USA, I think I’d be cheering for the other team. Only Belorussia, Russia or China vs. USA would give me pause.
I keep hearing talk of re-seeding before setting the matchups for the semis. Does that mean that the US moves into the #1 seed if they beat Sweden in regulation?
No, I think the seeding is fixed.
Yes, crystallized after the preliminary games.
Even the Sportsnet page says Canada plays whomever is 4th ranked from the seeding round.
Thanks! Yeah, I read a bit deeper and it seems you’re right. “Re-seeding” seems to be the wrong word for it, but the US broadcast keeps using it in intermissions.
Right, it’s not re-seeding but they’re ordered 1 through 4 from the initial seeding rankings. It’s as if you had the original ordered list, and you just remove the teams that lost, keeping the former order.
US is the 2nd seed, Canada is the 1st see and will play Finland or Sweden
and then the Slovaks in the final 😉
The Swiss and the Danes were the biggest surprise in this tourney, for me.
The Ritas triumph over the Riesens.
If USA wins, Canada vs. Finland.
If Sweden wins, Canada vs. Sweden.
For the next few hours, we are all Swedes.
Finland Finland Finland, the country where I quite want to be! Your mountains so lovely! Your treetops, so tall!
Fudge.
These quarterfinal games are high drama!
Intense, dramatic hockey to watch… so fun.
— organization behaviour fascinates me
— we can only speculate what prompted and the decision process behind coffeys departure and now his return
— the noise seemed to be that he had disagreements with the approach of the rest of the coaching staff.
— what would prompt him to come back? Whose decision was it. Who was involved?
— it’s just weird full stop. Hope it works out. I wonder what power politics dynamic manifested behind the scenes.
— regardless KK is done unless they win the cup. Thats as good a guarantee in business.
The owner made a phone call.
Yeah, doesn’t beget confidence that the organization knows what it is doing. Same as it ever was.
If Canada wins I could see a three team trade where the Oil get Binnington, Parayko and Doughty for everything they have of value and we’re told how they are winners and it’s a no brainer.
— to the extent that coffey is his own man (vs a trad assistant coach who is just happy to be one, it’s reasonable to assume after last year he just said “yeah I’m done here”
— how does he get convinced that he should come back. Did KK have input ?
— probably never in NHL history (or any professional sport) has an assistant coach left at end of a season then comes back well into a season.
— it’s just not “professional”. Hints at other things. Just hope it works out The power dynamics at play are interesting
Yeah, it’s not anything you’d normally see in any organization. Feels like a panic move and likely means new coaches next season.
Save to say the players wanted him back, he’s the most respected coach on the bench.
It appears dysfunctional organizationally. I’ve said before that if they brought Coffey back, KK should be gone. Who knows – he hasn’t left the organization so mabye him and KK have sorted out their differences too. But in my experience, people coming back to old roles rarely works out well. There is a reason they moved on, and that reason is likely going to come up again.
Weird situation – I think KK is on the hot seat and could be gone – potentially this year but in the offseason if they don’t get a cup this year.
Coach confirms at practice yesterday that they will be introducing some system changes. He mentioned this before the break as well.
Didn’t we hear the same comment from Coach KK a month or two ago?
Nope, but, at mentioned, he did say this a few games before the break.
Switzerland showing us that Group A was the toughest, after all.
Finland with something to say about that…..
tied up.
And they win it, just like Canada, when skill prevails in 3:3.
Still, Czechs and Swiss gave 2 of the ‘big 4’ all they could handle. My point was towards those who thought Canada had an easy ride in preliminary play – they made it look easy. No more, though!
Binnington is the goods in clutch games. Say what you want about the season but he is and has proven it. Just like the 4 nations robbery.
Those 2 saves were HUGE in the moment.
Do I think he is the best tender out there, no. Could Thompson have won that game? Of course he could of.
Bottom line, Binnington did the job, he made the saves at the right times. CLUTCH
Insane game, TENSE. lol
What a goal by Marner…He is proving some things since 4 nations.
GO CANADA!
No point in rehashing but that breakaway save in a Stanley Cup final wouldve cemented legacies in the last 2 years.
🙂
The Marchand OT winner was as ugly and deflating goal as you’ll ever see.
Roberto Luongo, don’t ever change.
lol so gooood.
I do like Nate MacKinnon, but he’s not even in the same ballpark as McDavid. Makar, on the other hand, is an absolute freak. Good Lord is he good. His edge work in traffic is a masterpiece.
I have the impression MacKinnon is injured.
Mack is definitely hurt. He can’t push off with the one foot.. Happened last game. You could see it in OT
He is hurt I think. Looked lumpy right at the end of the game. But he is not MacDavid
I think MacKinnon is the second best forward in the world with Drai being a very close third, that being said, and it could just be me, but I felt it in the 4 nations as well, that too my eye sometimes I feel he can be a bit “puck hoggy”, almost like he’s trying to prove he’s s good as McD and so sometimes tries to do to much instead of deferring and making a smarter play. Could also be that he’s just used to being the “it” player and it’s wired that way though.
He always plays that way.
It has nothing to do with McDavid and everything about trying to win.
He’s been playing that way since I first saw him around age 9. Just the way he’s wired, always stood out, always intense with one focus.
This game keeps me thinking about the next step in McDavid’s game. I think he needs to work on making weaker players better. Like Draisaitl. Give him some pylons and Draisaitl turns them into top-6 players.
McDavid has this tendency to draw only the best players to his line. Gretzky could turn players like McSorley and Semenko into serious threats.
He dragged around Rattie, Chaisson, Maroon, Lucic, Puljujarvi all in years he won the Art Ross.
I would suggest it isn’t Mcdavid who needs to do the elevating.
But Draisaitl makes more with what’s he’s given. It probably has to do with their style. Draisaitl plays a more predictable and slower-paced game, so players have an easier time fitting into it. McDavid’s game is so quick it can feel more like chaos for a player that can’t handle playing at that pace.
I’m confused. Podkolzin has a career high 14 goals and with Drai currently has 12 goals after 8 goals the previous year. Roslovic (next highest minutes by NST) would be on pace for 27 after getting 22 the year before. Its elevation sure, lets look at 97.
Hyman had a career high 21 goals before moving to 97’s line and has put up 27, 36, 54, 27 with some injury sprinkled in there.
Maroon hit 27 goals and never sniffed 15 again without 97.
Mcdavid takes what he’s given and elevates players to the point you think they’re more substantial than they are imo.
There’s a template for playing with 97 and its put your stick on the damn ice in front of the net and separate man from puck behind the net.
I can only imagine how annoying the Tkachuk brothers would be if Canada lost this game and the US went on to win gold
They would be even more annoying if they beat Canada in the final.
Almost as annoying as you will be if the US beats Canada in the final.
Coffey coming back is a move in the right direction, removing Stuart from the staff altogether would be another one.
Maybe Stuart will be better now that he can focus on the PK as he did before. He was basically doing the job of two people this year in charge of D and PK.
we were 15th in PK in 23-24 and 16th in 24-25, which is about where I would expect us to be given the personnel.
Last post season the Oilers rolled out the worst pk eyes have ever seen. Knoblauch then promoted the man that crafted it, failing upwards does not inspire confidence.
Yeah. A big part of the problem on the PK is Darnell. In the 25 playoffs he was on for 12 PK goals against. Walman, BOUCH, and Kulak were on for 7 or less in the same amount of time.
This season everyone seems to be struggling on PK but especially Nurse and Emberson. It looks like Kulak was one of our best penalty killers. In 24-25 regular season Nurse was on for 25 goals against on the PK – Kulak was on for 16 against in 10 more minutes.
that Kulak trade might have had a huge impact on the PK this year.
Was he not also the architect of the playoff PK the year before that that didn’t get scored on at all? Wonder what changed. Personnel likely.
Ceci and Vinny were both very good penalty killers. As were Foegele/McLeod. I’m digging into the numbers and it certainly looks like losing guys like Ceci, Vinny, and Kulak has led to more minutes for Nurse on the PK which seems to go badly every year.
Personnel will be an issue again. Hoping for some improvement with the Coffey add but I truly feel we need a D add, there is that rumour. so fingers crossed. It feels like a retool year but then again its the oil so…
They ran the systems with slight tweaks that were already in place, then in their first summer is when they implemented their systems fully.
The oilers top pk in the 24 run was an entirely different system than it is now.
The system used then was relatively new to the league with only a few teams running it. Basically an I formation with the two forwards. Worked extremely well till teams adjusted.
Florida just destroyed it last year with a few tweaks. The oilers had no answer. Now no team uses that pk anymore including the oilers.
Certainly they need to tweak their new system. Flames have a good pk using a similar set up but they are far more aggressive…. That said personal could be a factor. Henrique is a proven pk guy but unlikely to be successful being super aggressive.
The spring before, Stuart rolled out the best PK your eyes have likely ever seen, right?
Nope.
That’s odd given the PK in that playoff run was historic.
Sure, so which year is the anomaly?
Pretty sure a lot of it can be explained by personnel. They keep losing some of their top penalty killers.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-coffey-to-rejoin-oilers-coaching-staff
After watching the Canadian D, no way Bouch shouldn’t be on that team. Parrayko in particular a train wreck.
Harley on for all 3 goals against, and Doughty for two (not sure if it was 3). With the exception on the hit on Pasta, Doughty is virtually unplayable, he has looked so poor.
If only there was a suitable replacement… Possibly someone with a proven track record in big games and that also leads the league in points for a defenceman.
(Chychrun should be there as well.)
Brain farts are very costly when it comes to short tournaments.
Wait, I am being told it’s only costly when Bouchard has brain farts. Other D get a pass.
Hell, I would of brought Schaefer.
Why not both
I think speed, mobility and puck moving are more important in the Olympics than being a gronk. Czechia isn’t that big a team (a few guys are), they just played the body hard, which is a choice
Bouch’s ability to get hard shots thru traffic and finding the low man net side would be quite helpful.
Parayko should not be on this team.
Dughty still made some nice plays and had a few big hits.
Harley had a tough game.
But besides that top line, the rest of the team was not good in the 1st and up to when Crosby got hurt, then it was like a switch went off.
Binnington is so clutch in Big OT games
Looks like Czechia had 6 players on the ice when they scored against Canada and the refs missed it. Imagine if that was the go ahead goal.
Crazy , I just saw that
Correction: Czechia had 8 players on the ice when they scored on Canada.
Canada may have to win another round robin rematch unless Finland makes a great comeback or Sweden upsets USA (entirely possible).
Group A definitely displaying its strength in the QF
Phew! Bit more tension than I need to start my day on Wednesday!
Binnington gets better as the game goes on and the pressure increases. Great goal by Marner.
But man, what a play by Nick Suzuki. At the end of his shift gets the puck in, battles to get it deeper, battles to get it back, makes the play back to the point, goes out front and tips it home. Unreal.
I will humbly take my criticism back on Binnington. Dostal incredible but Binnington did the job, again, made some huge saves at the end, and they are going to ride or die with him.
29 and 97 wisely got off ice even though another rush was possible. Trusting your teammates is a thing…
Holy that was stressful. Wow! Character building, getting some other players involved in it. Macklin again excellent. McDavid 8-0 GF-GA at 5v5.
We need Bennett next game it’s obvious teams know that that you need to goon Canada to win.
Yeah, Czechia was kind of thuggish today. Great win. Let’s go Canada
Big reason the Oilers lost 2 years running was the unwillingness for K.K to get in the gutter with Maurice. In a do or die game the refs usually swallow the whistle unless it’s a clear high stick or delay of game.
And definitely need Bennett in against US if that’s the gold medal game.
They say he’s a bit banged up. But his scoring chance stats are good, and much of Canada’s bottom 6 isn’t. Maybe take out Jarvis or Marchand. (Honestly, I thought Marner was terrible until his heroic OT goal, just like he was 4 Nations.)
I think he is banged up. Bit. But yes if he is good to go, And put Morrisey in for Parayko if he can go.
I would say they need Josh M. more than anyone.
This is exactly the type of game Canada needed. Good wakeup call.
Hope Crosby makes it back for the semi.
I don’t think so it looked like a knee but then again Poulin looked cooked as well.
I think it was his groin
UGH, agree knee or groin. I HOPE he is good but looked rough.
Binnington came up big late today – gotta eat crow for now.
Also guilty of being critical of Binnington but he sure rose to the occasion today. Give the man his dues!!
Binnington seems to L ways come up huge in these OT games. Same as last year
lol I like the ‘for now’ add. Amazing.
I did say, yesterday, no doubt he can come up with a big game at anytime but will he be able to put three solid games together?
I’m not sure and I’m still not sure.
I hope so though.
Huge props to Binnington with 2 massive clutch saves when Team Canada needed them.