These are NHL draft-year equivalencies for Oilers prospects going back 20 years. The top names (McDavid, Gagner, Hall, Draisaitl, Bouchard) all had (or are having) long careers in the NHL. We don’t need draft day NHLEs to know those men were on a high trajectory. It’s also true that, at the time, Jordan Eberle was valued way beyond 27 NHLE.
What NHLE can do is point out players who we can project into specific roles even as teenagers. Reid Schaefer was a first-round pick, but NHLE suggested a middle-six winger was his best match for an NHL future.
Dylan Holloway’s NHLE was hampered due to lack of playing time (NCAA freshman are faded in this way, traditionally) so we didn’t get a good view of him. Xavier Bourgault didn’t work out, but he had talent, and Jesse Puljujarvi’s NHLE was accurate we just didn’t want to believe it.
What can we say about the current group of prospects? Well, Ike Howard is an above average prospect, with a draft-year NHLE of 30 points. He isn’t at the top level, though, this isn’t a guaranteed success. Matt Savoie’s draft NHLE was 34 points, so he’s in the range. Savoie’s prediction for his rookie season (using my reasonable expectaions) was .50 points-game, and he posted .45 points-game. That is an accurate prediction.
Howard’s projection is less certain because playing time is going to be fluid because new coach. Nothing downbeat about the prospect but he does have a different scenario developing than Savoie one year ago. We should acknowledge it.
Quinn Hutson, (20 NHLE), Josh Samanski (10), Tommy Lareniere (20) and the rest of the prospects are destined to either miss the NHL or make it as complementary offensive players who bring enough in the other parts of the game to warrant a roster spot.
These are the 1992-93 Cape Breton Oilers. Do you see all of the scoring numbers? Dan Currie had 223 AHL goals by 24! And Kirk Maltby played 1,072 NHL games. Maltby’s draft-day NHLE was 38, Dan Currie’s 17.
When evaluating prospects, the age they can play well at a certain level is a key element. What does that mean for Oilers fans? It means that we should pay close attention to William Nicholl in Bakersfield this winter. He is 20. He had an NHLE of 8 in his draft year, but he has emerged as a real NHL prospect after his ‘draft and follow’ selection by Edmonton in 2024. Nicholl is a player of interest.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Kevin McCurdy. We’ll talk about the Oilers roster and what tweaks could be made, and about the fallout from the Leo Carlsson offer sheet. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
