Five Long Years in Bakersfield and OKC

It’s been five years now in Bakersfield, and before that the Oilers had a five-year window sending their new pro players to the farm in Oklahoma City. Five years of Barons, five years of Condors. How you doin’? It’s a good time (five years from now will be a better time) to see if the organization is making progress.

The Barons, you may recall, produced a large number of useful (or very useful) NHL defensemen. Are the Condors delivering similar quality blue? More important is Bakersfield going to deliver more forwards? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

OKLAHOMA CITY BLUE 2010-15

I’m running only players who were rookies in Oklahoma City and the results are spectacular. Over a five-year period, the system delivered handsome returns on the blue. My goodness that’s a quality group. Petry, Schultz and Klefbom play big and important minutes, all three destined to enjoy signifant careers and possibly impressive totals like 1,000 career games. That’s massive. Added to the trio are four men who have contributed at least two seasons worth of NHL duty, Marincin coming up on three.

BAKERSFIELD BLUE 2015-20

The Condors group has fewer years to compile NHL games, but the trend is good to very good. I’m not sure Nurse, Bear and Bouchard will reach the heights of Petry, Klefbom and Schultz, but this cluster is going to be playing in the vital parts of big games for years to come.

OKLAHOMA CITY FORWARDS 2010-15

Important to keep in mind that forwards Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Leon Draisaitl went straight to the NHL. That said, this is not a strong crop for five AHL seasons. None of these men has played even a full season on a skill line in the NHL, minor league grads are at times good enough to play part of their careers in prominent roles. This is, as it always is when I look at it, disappointing.

BAKERSFIELD FORWARDS 2015-20

This is where the Condors will shine, it’s already obvious. Much of the reason is first-round picks Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, but names like Slepyshev and Benson have or will spent time on skill units. I’ll guess that JP and Yamamoto tower over both lists by the time this thing rolls out another five seasons.

CONCLUSION

Edmonton wasn’t sending Oklahoma City talent like Puljujarvi or Yamamoto but there was also a disconnect going on down there. Tyler Pitlick had some injury issues and was slow played in 2011-12, and then got run over in 2012-13 because Hall, Eberle, Nuge and others played there during the lockout. The Condors are a different team, especially under Jay Woodcroft. I believe in Tyler Benson’s talent. I also believe he is lucky to have arrived in pro hockey in 2018 instead of 2012.

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107 Responses to "Five Long Years in Bakersfield and OKC"

  1. jake70 says:

    When they left Springfield (Hunter, still have Schremp’s Falcons jersey?? No? maybe MacT has one for you.. lol), I thought they were really going to establish a solid pipeline of NHL players, not stars but solid role players. Little fuzzy in memory but it seemed the non-Oiler drafted AHL guys were getting all the ice time.

  2. godot10 says:

    Marc Arcobello?
    Magnus Paajarvi?

  3. SVR says:

    Was Jschultz’ stint in the minors the lock out year? We can’t know for sure, but I’d be willing to bet he wouldn’t have seen any time down there in a normal year

    It’s telling that even being forced to do the right thing, the Oilers still were able to mess up his development as soon as they got their hands on him in Edmonton

    The biggest difference to me now besides Holland’s over ripen philosophy, is we have guys like Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, to mentor the kids, and guys like Benning, and Russell that are real NHL defensemen who will compete with these kids for jobs in the line up

    Progress!

  4. defmn says:

    I’m going to be stubborn and once again state that I am not yet convinced that putting Bear in a different category than Jones is a known fact.

    Opportunity has played a more significant role in the apparent discrepancy this past season than talent imo.

  5. pts2pndr says:

    I would strongly disagree. Bear is a much better defender and thinks the game at a higher level. Jones has better skating but is less physical and gets beaten back door. Given that going into last year Jones had more NHL experience, when you watched them on the ice Bear routinely made better choices on where to put the puck when under pressure. I believe they will both have very good careers as top four D. I think Bear will be bonafide top three able to play top pairing for short periods. Jones on the other hand will top out out as a bonafide second pairing D.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klefbom, Petry and Shultz is one hell of a group that graduated from the Barons but all three of them were high picks/touted and “supposed to make it”.

    Bear and Jones being 4th and 5th round picks is an absolute boon. Bear has “popped” and solidified himself as a legit top 4 RD at 22. Jones has solidified himself as an every day NHL d-man at 22 and has shown signs that he may very solidify himself as a top 4 in the next 6-12 months (not sure thing there but reasonable to think).

    Bouchard will join the group, of that we are almost assured, but he’s in the “supposed to make it” group.

    Lagesson still has time but he may be in the Marincin, Davidson, Osterle camp when all is said and done.

    Samorukov – future will tell.

  7. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr:
    I would strongly disagree. Bear is a much better defender and thinks the game at a higher level. Jones has better skating but is less physical and gets beaten back door. Given that going into last year Jones had more NHL experience, when you watched them on the ice Bear routinely made better choices on where to put the puck when under pressure. I believe they will both have very good careers as top four D. I think Bear will bebonafide top three able to play top pairingfor short periods. Jones on the other hand will top out out as a bonafide second pairing D.

    I agree with DEFMN. While Bear will likely end up being the better player, nothing is written in stone. Jones was considered the better prospect one year ago and development doesn’t usually move forward in a straight line. I’m not sure Jones was beat back door a bunch of times and even if he was, this seems like something that can be rectified with experience and situational awareness. While it’s unlikely that Jones will have the better career, I certainly won’t be shocked if he does.

  8. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Klefbom, Petry and Shultz is one hell of a group that graduated from the Barons but all three of them were high picks/touted and “supposed to make it”.

    Petry wasn’t all that highly touted. He was about the first defensemen drafted that high (in the 2nd round) out of the USHL, and he was destined to college. The flood of players (and particularly D) being drafted high out of the USHL followed in subsequent years.

    After 3 years at Michigan State, then Petry was more highly touted, but not when he was drafted.

  9. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Omark
    Hartikainen
    Miller
    Hamilton
    Pakarinen
    Petrell
    Simpson
    Musil

  10. defmn says:

    We are probably the only two on this one but I think it is too soon to call given how they have gone back and forth between them as to which is the better prospect for the first few years of their young careers.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

  12. Munny says:

    You’re thinking about contract, I’m guessing.

  13. jp says:

    Well, I guess us Oiler fans are lucky this Covid thing came along and saved us from certain heartbreak.

  14. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    In spite of increased speculation to the contrary by those who have fallen prey to the siren call of quantum mechanics we do not live in a simulation. 😉

  15. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    What’s the simulation on the scoring race?

  16. defmn says:

    Munny:
    You’re thinking about contract, I’m guessing.

    That. But I just think Jones has more to give. Unfortunately for him the same opportunities were not available on the left side as Bear found on the right.

    And this is not meant to diminish anything about Bear’s game. I am just not ready to proclaim their degree of separation as that wide as this past season suggested to many.

  17. jp says:

    Was he even highly touted coming out of college? I seem to remember LT having him very low on his prospect lists until he settled in to OKC, and few arguing he should be ranked higher.

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    Simulated heartbreak hurts too.

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    Well that’s heartbreaking for sure. 😐

    I’d suggest that would mean I will pay even less attention to simulated post season games than I did to their regular season counterparts, but that would be less than zero, so nevermind.

    I did have sadness at 8pm last night that the season finale simply did not happen. Just another shitty detail among the many in this new reality.

    Best wishes to you, HH, and to all the regulars here.

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: In spite of increased speculation to the contrary by those who have fallen prey to the siren call of quantum mechanics we do not live in a simulation.

    Many scientists believe otherwise.

    Was wondering this morning while listening to CKUA if you know Tom Coxworth?

  21. MushedPeas says:

    +1

  22. MushedPeas says:

    I’d agree we’re nowhere near peak Jones. That said, dude does not see the ice way Bear does. Jones might close the gap, but I don’t award the same outer marker.

    Just to confuse the issue, next year Jones will push and Bear will regress and we can rehash this ad nasuem 😉

  23. godot10 says:

    Lowetide grouped him with the three college amigos, Chorney, Petry, and Wild.

    He dinged Petry, particularly in his sophomore year for lack of offense. (Turns out he was learning to play defense, something the other two didn’t)

    Not until Petry’s strong junior year, and Chorney’s struggles in the AHL, didn’t Petry begin receiving more Lowetide blog love.

    How good he was out of the box in OKC (compared to Chorney) was somewhat of a surprise to most.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Petry wasn’t all that highly touted.He was about the first defensemen drafted that high (in the 2nd round) out of the USHL, and he was destined to college.The flood of players (and particularly D) being drafted high out of the USHL followed in subsequent years.

    After 3 years at Michigan State, then Petry was more highly touted, but not when he was drafted.

    As you mention, Petry was a 2nd round pick so he was “supposed to make it”.

    Klefbom was a 1st round pick.

    Shultz was highly touted when acquired.

    I put all three of them well ahead of the likes of Bear and Jones are far as pedigree on the date they became Oilers property.

  25. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Many scientists believe otherwise.

    Was wondering this morning while listening to CKUA if you know Tom Coxworth?

    Yes I do although not well. Perky kind of guy.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    SVR:
    Was Jschultz’ stint in the minors the lock out year?We can’t know for sure, but I’d be willing to bet he wouldn’t have seen any time down there in a normal year

    It’s telling that even being forced to do the right thing, the Oilers still were able to mess up his development as soon as they got their hands on him in Edmonton

    The biggest difference to me now besides Holland’s over ripen philosophy, is we have guys like Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, to mentor the kids, and guys like Benning, and Russell that are real NHL defensemen who will compete with these kids for jobs in the line up

    Progress!

    Yup, Justin was only in the AHL due to the lockout.

    He was ready for the NHL but the issue was not the usage within the NHL – 1RD.

    I anticipate Bouchard starting next season in the AHL – it may not be longer than a few games but, unless one of Larsson or Benning are not returning, I think he gets a few more AHL games.

  27. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Many scientists believe otherwise.

    Was wondering this morning while listening to CKUA if you know Tom Coxworth?

    Many scientists believe all sorts of nonsense. Science is, after all, a type of metaphysics designed for the useful manipulation of information rather than for the more difficult task of understanding ‘what is’.

  28. geowal says:

    I wouldn’t give the Condors any credit for JP. If he comes back, I’d be crediting his Swedish league development and grouping him with our other overseas players.

  29. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Yes it was, and his numbers were historical for a rookie D in that league, but he was also surrounded by very high end talent who could finish.

  30. defmn says:

    geowal:
    I wouldn’t give the Condors any credit for JP. If he comes back, I’d be crediting his Swedish league development and grouping him with our other overseas players.

    Didn’t he play in a Finnish league this past season?

  31. geowal says:

    Watched game 3 of the 1992 World Series this morning. Had no recollection of Manuel Lee. Crazy almost triple play. Kelly Gruber homer. And since it’s so long ago and I only really remember the ‘93 series and not ‘92 I didn’t actually know what would happen it wasn’t strictly a trip down memory lane but a ‘new viewing’.

    Most sports I’ve watched since the sports world ended.

  32. N64 says:

    ~ if so you need your organs checked ~

  33. geowal says:

    Lol. I had thought the S in SM-Liiga meant Swedish…and I don’t know where Karpat is!
    Point stands, I wouldn’t be considering him a Condor development product anymore.

    Edit: and it turns out karpat isn’t a place but a club name, he’s in Oulu. The struggle is real this morning…er…afternoon.

  34. €√¥£€^$ says:

    JP’s fnishing touches are happening in Finland.

    Did you know he is AVERAGING 6.7 shots per game, close to 100 shots taken than the next guy in the league (less than a 7% shooting percentage though).

  35. geowal says:

    I do normally have good geography skills I swear…

  36. €√¥£€^$ says:

    The AHL single season scoring record is 96 pts (Chris Snell 75 games).

    If Schultz had kept same pace over a full season, he would have had 104 pts in 74 games. He was the first rookie to lead AHL Dmen in scoring (55 yrs).

  37. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Lol, I was wondering about that with your handle’s first 3 letters and all….

  38. defmn says:

    MushedPeas:

    Just to confuse the issue, next year Jones will push and Bear will regress and we can rehash this ad nasuem

    That is my expectation, actually. 😉

  39. jp says:

    Haha, thank you for doing your best to spread virtual heartbreak to Oiler land. Certainly it would feel good for a Canuck fan to celebrate things that never actually happened.

  40. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Speaking of Petry always makes me think of Marino….

    I had high, high hopes for him. You’d think he would have been a better focus for Chiarelli than Persson. Persson being older, a late late bloomer making huge leaps, then been asked to take another really big leap into a new culture and new kind of game never made sense to me.

    As well, with Bouchard and Bear in the fold as RH PP QB’s, it just seemed dumb. Why not focus and cultivate a relationship with a player already in North America? They also once had Auvitu, who was a superior player to Persson (I know an older LHD), but they FUBAR’d that situation too.

    You can find my many comments on this blog around here somewhere about it, but I thought Marino would become a “better defending Petry”, given his brutal Dzone minutes at Harvard.

    That I am concerned about Kemp and Kesselring being fellow New Englanders passing on the Oil would be an understatement. Are we destined to lose these RH Dmen for conditional 6th round picks in the next few years as well?

  41. Ryan says:

    godot10: Petry wasn’t all that highly touted.He was about the first defensemen drafted that high (in the 2nd round) out of the USHL, and he was destined to college.The flood of players (and particularly D) being drafted high out of the USHL followed in subsequent years.

    After 3 years at Michigan State, then Petry was more highly touted, but not when he was drafted.

    Petry was ready for the NHL right out of the box when he finally arrived.

  42. Genjutsu says:

    That was a triple play.

    Gruber made the tag the umps missed that call.

    What a team they had.

  43. RonnieB says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    I would have a very difficult time trusting any simulation that has Vancouver making up an 8 point deficit on Vegas over the balance of this season.

  44. Lowetide says:

    As I mentioned in the piece, each man needed to be an AHL rookie. I also used OKC players who played 100 games, because Curtis Hamilton isn’t a positive result.

  45. Lowetide says:

    defmn:
    I’m going to be stubborn and once again state that I am not yet convinced that putting Bear in a different category than Jones is a known fact.

    Opportunity has played a more significant role in the apparent discrepancy this past season than talent imo.

    Defensemen break your heart. Bear has elevated status because of the most recent season. Doing it again is going to be difficult.

  46. BONE207 says:

    LT: More important pergoing to deliver more forwards? Let’s have a look.

    Google must be failing me today. I’m sure that there is some obscure reference to this term that is a remnant from an old hockey bible that resides in LT’s basement or some song lyric or perhaps he picked up in one of those bars we spoke of the other day.

    As for the heights that Nurse won’t be able to achieve, I’m not so sure that he lags that far behind Petry or Jultz. Physically he may be the best. His head sure could use some infusion of something at times. Maybe it’s coming but overall, is he not a top 4 defender?

  47. defmn says:

    Lowetide: Defensemen break your heart. Bear has elevated status because of the most recent season. Doing it again is going to be difficult.

    That is fair. I guess my comment was more about a future yet to be played out. I expect Jones to continue to improve but he is blocked on the left side for the time being and Broberg will be moving up once he gets to the quarter mile marker.

    What Holland decides to do with his LD two years from now will be a major story for this team imo.

  48. BONE207 says:

    Didn’t Dustin Neilson also do a play by play of his own video playoffs?

  49. buck yoakam says:

    hard to simulate injuries and hot and cold streaks me thinks….wasn’t your goaltender a little tender there for a spell?…

  50. geowal says:

    Agreed

  51. BONE207 says:

    I thought he came from the Paul Coffey school of skating. I loved him in the first game I saw him play. I think it was an end to end game against Anaheim.

  52. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson if they’re going to flourish in the NHL.

    https://theathletic.com/1724610/2020/04/05/lowetide-bakersfield-condors-forward-prospects-might-need-a-history-lesson/

  53. BONE207 says:

    He’ll have them practicing picking up Stanley Cups & hoisting it over their head, of course. It weighs about 50 lbs. and balance is important. At least LT seems to think…

  54. OilClog says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    Weird, in my NHL20 simulation Oilers just won the cup 👌
    Vancouver doesn’t make the show
    Calgary is out 1st round
    Vegas out 2nd round
    Avalanche fall in the western finals
    Boston watches Oilers lift the Stanley at the end of game 6.
    NHL20 laughs at a team making up 8pts on Vegas with so little time left. Does Dom realize there’s a thing called the Gary extra, doesn’t seem like it.

  55. Munny says:

    BONE207: LT: More important pergoing to deliver more forwards? Let’s have a look.

    lol. it’s fixed above now.

  56. godot10 says:

    How was Arcobello NOT an AHL rookie?

    Paajarvi was on his entry level contract.

  57. jp says:

    I remember LT having Petry ranked ~10th among Oilers prospects coming out of college (I may be mistaken and can’t find the old lists to confirm). If true, I’d argue that’s not highly touted. Agreed otherwise.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    I would strongly disagree. Bear is a much better defender and thinks the game at a higher level. Jones has better skating but is less physical and gets beaten back door. Given that going into last year Jones had more NHL experience, when you watched them on the ice Bear routinely made better choices on where to put the puck when under pressure. I believe they will both have very good careers as top four D. I think Bear will bebonafide top three able to play top pairingfor short periods. Jones on the other hand will top out out as a bonafide second pairing D.

    I agree that Bear is ahead of Jones at this point and I’m not sure it was purely a function of opportunity – Jones did get ample time in the top 4 during Klef’s injury and he proved to 100% be an every day NHL d-man with legit potential to be a legit top 4 guy but he hasn’t quite proven to be that legit top 4 guy like Bear has.

    Its tough to compare the two a bit as, despite the fact we can label both of them “puck moving D”, they have different skil-sets.

    I’m not 100% sure Bear is a better defender in all respects – I absolutely agree that he is in defensive zone battles, he really upped his game mid-way through the year with between the blueline and faceoff dot battle. At the same time, Bear is prone to getting beat with a stretch pass and with speed. On the stretch pass he often mis-angles and on the rush can be beat.

    Bear is “calmer” with the puck on his stick and is able to take the extra second and make the extra move to create space and a lane for a pass. On the other hand, I think Jones has the stronger stretch pass for length.

    Bear has a plus shot but Jones is WAY better at actually getting a shot off and his shot through an on net (I think the best on the team).

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    I’m pretty sure Dom’s sim has the “better” team winning *every* game through the regular season. We all know real life doesn’t work that way.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    Since December 31st the Oilers are the 5th or 6th best team in the entire league (depending on whether you look at points or winning percentage). Vancouver is 18th or 20th. Something tells me Dom’s simulator needs a tune-up.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Speaking of Petry always makes me think of Marino….

    I had high, high hopes for him.You’d think he would have been a better focus for Chiarelli than Persson.Persson being older, a late late bloomer making huge leaps, then been asked to take another really big leap into a new culture and new kind of game never made sense to me.

    As well, with Bouchard and Bear in the fold as RH PP QB’s, it just seemed dumb. Why not focus and cultivate a relationship with a player already in North America?They also once had Auvitu, who was a superior player to Persson (I know an older LHD), but they FUBAR’d that situation too.

    You can find my many comments on this blog around here somewhere about it, but I thought Marino would become a “better defending Petry”, given his brutal Dzone minutes at Harvard.

    That I am concerned about Kemp and Kesselring being fellow New Englanders passing on the Oil would be an understatement.Are we destined to lose these RH Dmen for conditional 6th round picks in the next few years as well?

    I’m not sure i understand the reference to Chiarelli not focussing on Marino.

    Chiarelli no longer being with the organization was the main reason the door closed on signing Marino.

    Signing Marino before his last college season wasn’t really an option, he wasn’t ready to turn pro, and during that season, Chiarelli was dismissed from the organization.

    Here is hoping that Kemp wants to sign with the Oilers after his up coming senior season. I know Howson, in his current role, has indeed been in touch with Kemp and his camp and I would presume his successor will this year.

    Kesserling is 3-4 years away from being signed.

  62. buck yoakam says:

    Just heard Barry Allen passed….man we were just recalling all the incredible musicians and friends who were instrumental in building our core of culture in our early years…respect always

  63. jp says:

    It doesn’t sound like even that.

    He notes that Edmonton’s probability of making the playoffs beginning the simulation was 95%, “as it should’ve been” (his words).

    Basically the simulation handed the Oilers a terrible run of bad luck “95 percent of the time it doesn’t happen. This is what a very unlucky five percent looks like.”

    The Canucks, who he says are “equal on paper” before running the sim, went 11-1-1 vs the Oilers 4-6-1. Blind damn (fantasy) luck lol.

    https://theathletic.com/1676721/2020/04/05/by-the-numbers-what-if-the-nhl-season-wasnt-suspended/

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    How is Auvitu better than Persson?

    I’m not saying that he isn’t but he’s been in the KHL and SHL the last two years, not producing offensive numbers…..

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    MushedPeas:
    I’d agree we’re nowhere near peak Jones. That said, dude does not see the ice way Bear does. Jones might close the gap, but I don’t award the same outer marker.

    Just to confuse the issue, next year Jones will push and Bear will regress and we can rehash this ad nasuem

    I don’t know about closing the gap – maybe, maybe not, however, I am highly confident that Jones’ $850K cap hit for the next two years is going to be a massive value contract.

    He signed that extension and then, bam, took off and soldified himself as an every day NHL d-man and took steps to show he may solidify himself as an every day NHL top 4 guy.

    The timing of the signing was amazing for the Oilers.

  66. bassguy says:

    Colin James song…I met colin when he was very young as he had moved to vancouver from sask..we met at the yale listening to jim byrnes I think..anyways he hit our table up for some bread to buy a 6 pack..dont think he has drunk booze for years..he is definitely the loudest guitar player I have ever played with though..haha..we did the flood aid in calgary and I was part of the house band…I was playing with a great band and he had another guitar player with him as well, so 3 guitar players with the amps set back at least 15 feet from all of them.set up basically in front of the drums and bass..I was playing an svt of course as loud as I could possibly manage?..and then he comes back to me and says hey — could you turn up a bit?…the bass was vibrating out of my arms it was so loud plus it didnt hurt that the drummer was also a extremely loud and intense great rock drummer who played on bryan adams cut like a knife..great player and singer

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    I wouldn’t give the Condors any credit for JP. If he comes back, I’d be crediting his Swedish league development and grouping him with our other overseas players.

    Fair enough but I would note that I don’t think Jesse’s 18 year old season in the AHL (after he was finally sent down) gets enough credit. His production as an 18 year old was very very very good – he was the youngest player in North American pro hockey (major leagues) and playing as an 18 year old in a league most aren’t allowed in until 20.

    We should have been pumped with his draft plus 1 sason in the AHL.

  68. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Yes it was, and his numbers were historical for a rookie D in that league, but he was also surrounded by very high end talent who could finish.

    – a big tell for me from that lockout year was if I recall correctly the team results were actually better once jultz hall and ebs went back after the lockout than when they were on the team.

    – I midget be recalling incorrectly however. I can’t be bothered to look it up: I’d rather keep my narrative unless proven otherwise.

  69. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t know about closing the gap – maybe, maybe not, however, I am highly confident that Jones’ $850K cap hit for the next two years is going to be a massive value contract.

    He signed that extension and then, bam, took off and soldified himself as an every day NHL d-man and took steps to show he may solidify himself as an every day NHL top 4 guy.

    The timing of the signing was amazing for the Oilers.

    Just speculating but both Holland and Tippett really had no reason to know much about Bear or Jones when they arrived in Edmonton.

    After watching what Bear did from the start of camp and then Jones did for a few games in Edmonton I would think a smart GM would talk to Tippett and phone Woodcroft to see how they thought the two compared.

    With that info in hand offering a pretty small bet to sign Jones before he ramps up his value like Bear did is smart GM’ing in my opinion.

  70. buck yoakam says:

    I heard one of coins favourite bands to see live in edmonton was the Lent bros…not really a surprise

  71. pts2pndr says:

    By that time Samorukov may have eaten Jones lunch as well, better tool box. Holland wii definitely have riches abounding at left D. Jones may be the sacrificial lamb foe expansion.

  72. pts2pndr says:

    Some very good points. I do believe Jones is in way tougher on the left side due to the Oilers left side talent. Depending on the cap and because of his left side right side versatility he would make a great seventh D.

  73. Lowetide says:

    buck yoakam:
    Just heard Barry Allen passed….man we were just recalling all the incredible musicians and friends who were instrumental in building our core of culture in our early years…respect always

    Can you confirm? I heard same but cannot confirm? Will leave it up for an hour then delete if we can’t find confirmation.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure i understand the reference to Chiarelli not focussing on Marino.

    Chiarelli no longer being with the organization was the main reason the door closed on signing Marino.

    Signing Marino before his last college season wasn’t really an option, he wasn’t ready to turn pro, and during that season, Chiarelli was dismissed from the organization.

    Here is hoping that Kemp wants to sign with the Oilers after his up coming senior season. I know Howson, in his current role, has indeed been in touch with Kemp and his camp and I would presume his successor will this year.

    Kesserling is 3-4 years away from being signed.

    Is Kemp like “Forever 19”Bouchard?

    Looks to me like he would need at least a year in the AHL after his senior year.

    Wouldn’t that make him too old to be a prospect in your world?

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: I would have a very difficult time trusting any simulation that has Vancouver making up an 8 point deficit on Vegas over the balance of this season.

    Simulation probably including a Rafferty call-up!

  76. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – a big tell for me from that lockout year was if I recall correctly the team results were actually better once jultz hall and ebs went back after the lockout than when they were on the team.

    – I midget be recalling incorrectly however. I can’t be bothered to look it up: I’d rather keep my narrative unless proven otherwise.

    To start that season in OKC, it was four AHL rookies, and two vets, Plante and Teubert, But Plante and Teubert sucked hind banana out of the gate. So it was four AHL rookies carrying the load, and they couldn’t hold a lead. Schultz, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson.

    After the NHL season started, OKC acquired two NHL tweeners in Brett Clark and Randy Jones to stabilized things, and Nelson worked his magic. Teubert also played a bit better. And the rookies established themselves. Lander and Arcobello took off. Hartikainen was beastly, Pitlick got healthy, and Rajala rocked and rolled.

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Simulation probably including a Rafferty call-up!

    Might win the Conn Smith.

  78. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: Since December 31st the Oilers are the 5th or 6th best team in the entire league (depending on whether you look at points or winning percentage). Vancouver is 18th or 20th. Something tells me Dom’s simulator needs a tune-up.

    Remember last season when the Blues were last in the league and went on to win the cup?

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: That is fair. I guess my comment was more about a future yet to be played out. I expect Jones to continue to improve but he is blocked on the left side for the time being and Broberg will be moving up once he gets to the quarter mile marker.

    What Holland decides to do with his LD two years from now will be a major story for this team imo.

    Development is generally not in a straight line and I do expect the pre-prime Bear to have some struggles and tough stretches next season but I also do expect/anticipate that, overall, he’ll be even better.

    For one, that is the natural progression for 22-23 year old players (progression as opposed to stagnation or regression) and, importantly, he is likely to have more help in the top 4. He played 1RD most of the season (and may do that again) playing the most TOI vs. elites of the group and he did that with his back-up in the top 4 being Joel Persson or off-side Kris Russell for most of the year. Having a healthy Adam Larsson for the year will help Bear out (including taking PK minutes).

    With respect to Jones being blocked, well, yes, Klef/Nurse surely do that but I don’t think Broberg factors in over the next 2 years. As we know, he’ll be in Sweden for next season and then, presumably, will need a full AHL season before the NHL is a realistic option.

    The timing is interesting – Broberg should be ready for real NHL at bats at the same time Jones 2 year deal is done and Nurse’s 2-year, UFA-expiry, deal is up…..

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Some very good points. I do believe Jones is in way tougher on the left side due to the Oilers left side talent. Depending on the cap and because of his left side right side versatility he would make a great seventh D.

    Can’t disagree with the opportunity comment in general.

    Bear doesn’t have the likes of Klefbom and Nurse ahead of him and is clearly top 2 on the right side depth chart (and probably #1 in the minds of most).

    What’s amazing is that, in my opinion, both players can buy real estate in Edmonton – they are done with the minors!

  81. unca miltie says:

    was just announced on CFRN

  82. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    The timing is interesting – Broberg should be ready for real NHL at bats at the same time Jones 2 year deal is done and Nurse’s 2-year, UFA-expiry, deal is up…..

    Yup.

  83. yeraslob says:

    “Calgary is out in 1st round”

    Sounds about right.

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Remember last season when the Blues were last in the league and went on to win the cup?

    So the Oilers were more likely than Vancouver to win the Cup? Makes sense.

  85. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    How is Auvitu better than Persson?

    I’m not saying that he isn’t but he’s been in the KHL and SHL the last two years, not producing offensive numbers…..

    He sure has struggled since heading back to Europe (looks like injuries also based on GP). But I’d forgotten how mediocre his offense was even before coming to NA (his best season, right before joining Jersey, was 48-6-15-21 in Finland). His scoring with the Oilers seems to be the anomaly more than anything.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Is Kemp like “Forever 19”Bouchard?

    Looks to me like he would need at least a year in the AHL after his senior year.

    Wouldn’t that make him too old to be a prospect in your world?

    I like Phil Kemp – he was really good for the Americans and the 2018/19 World Juniors.

    He has progressed well and in being likely that he will sign a pro contract after his senior year makes it so that he’s already covered his bet as a 7th rounder.

    I do think he has some potential for the NHL but the odds are against him making it or playing more than a handful of games. Time will tell.

    Of course, he’s currently 21 years old, will have just turned 22 when he finishes his college career and I’m not propping him up to be a sure-fire 2nd pairing d-man next year that is more valuable that Evan Bouchard, Oscar Klefbom and Ethan Bear despite being a month shy of 25 and non an NHLer…..

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Might win the Conn Smith.

    Given how realistic the sim has been, its quite likely!

  88. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Is Kemp like “Forever 19”Bouchard?

    Looks to me like he would need at least a year in the AHL after his senior year.

    Wouldn’t that make him too old to be a prospect in your world?

    FWIW Kemp just turned 21 and completed his Jr year. So he’ll graduate and begin pro at age 22. He’ll have a 3 pro seasons to try to get where Rafferty is now.

  89. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Development is generally not in a straight line and I do expect the pre-prime Bear to have some struggles and tough stretches next season but I also do expect/anticipate that, overall, he’ll be even better.

    I agree Bear is likely to struggle at some point. And agree with the general sentiment being discussed that we just don’t know what Jones is (so we can’t say with complete certainty that Bear is the better player).

    But what Bear did this year as a rookie was really extremely impressive (even aside from how unexpected it was). Minor blips, but he played the entire year in the top 4 (a majority as clear 1RD) on a playoff team. He maintained that performance all year, and as you point out without much cover behind him.

    A hell of a season and a great arrow for his future.

  90. Yeti says:

    jp: FWIW Kemp just turned 21 and completed his Jr year. So he’ll graduate and begin pro at age 22. He’ll have a 3 pro seasons to try to get where Rafferty is now.

    Don’t place such lofty expectations on the poor guy.

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: FWIW Kemp just turned 21 and completed his Jr year. So he’ll graduate and begin pro at age 22. He’ll have a 3 pro seasons to try to get where Rafferty is now.

    Of course, the most likely scenario is that Kemp plays his senior year and doesn’t sign with a team that has a brace of middling D blocking his way in Nurse, Jones, Broberg, Samurokov and Laggesson.

  92. hungoverman says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season ended last night with the Flames beating the Oilers and knocking them out of the playoffs.

    Vancouver wins the Pacific and faces the Wild in the first round while Calgary faces VGK.

    Harpers Hair,

    The Undertaker won at WRESTLEMANIA last night and it is also simulated.
    Oh…this is a whiskey blog sorry.

  93. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course, the most likely scenario is that Kemp plays his senior year and doesn’t sign with a team that has a brace of middling D blocking his way in Nurse, Jones, Broberg, Samurokov and Laggesson.

    Well, Kemp is a RD so he’d be walking into a depth chart of Bear, Larsson, Benning, Bouchard and Logan Day. Only 3 of those have contracts, and Larsson is UFA next summer. Almost the ideal landing spot, no?

    Depth chart aside, how many times have the Oilers had a college player walk to FA?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course, the most likely scenario is that Kemp plays his senior year and doesn’t sign with a team that has a brace of middling D blocking his way in Nurse, Jones, Broberg, Samurokov and Laggesson.

    Kemp is a right shot D and all the listed d-man are left shot.

  95. yeraslob says:

    jp,

    Bam!
    Foot in mouth disease? This plays out like spillies on Sportsnet almost every time!

  96. yeraslob says:

    Raffletree hopes he can get to middling status.

  97. RonnieB says:

    jp: Well, Kemp is a RD so he’d be walking into a depth chart of Bear, Larsson, Benning, Bouchard and Logan Day. Only 3 of those have contracts, and Larsson is UFA next summer. Almost the ideal landing spot, no?

    Depth chart aside, how many times have the Oilers had a college player walk to FA?

    How quickly one forgets Marino who had to be traded or he would have walked.

  98. Lowetide says:

    RonnieB: How quickly one forgets Marino who had to be traded or he would have walked.

    Riley Nash as well.

  99. jp says:

    RonnieB: How quickly one forgets Marino who had to be traded or he would have walked.

    It was meant as a rhetorical question, thinking Marino was the only one.

    Lowetide: Riley Nash as well.

    I did forget about Nash. And Comrie threatened to.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Riley Nash as well.

    Riley Nash didn’t want his career derailed by Lowe+MacT’s competence, the weird part is it made me mad at Nash for the longest time for not wanting to join the shiteshow lol

    Smart player, evidently.

  101. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The Chiarelli point is in reference to the signing of Persson and the failure to cultivate a relationship with Marino. Perhaps they could have hired his twin brother with the Oilers as a video assistant (he is the Harvard video guy) or something of that nature. I think it was quite clear that Marino had the confidence of his coach, but his offensive opportunities were blocked by Adam Fox in his Freshman season, Fox and Rielly Walsh (NJ 3rd Rounder) in his sophomore season and then Fox, Walsh and Jack Rathbone (Van 4th Rounder) in his Junior season.

    If you just look at Marino’s stats you’d be underwhelmed and think he’d regressed, but by what I’ve read he was getting over 70% dzone starts against the elites. Chiarelli had a big part to play in this draft pick and the decisions about how to persuade them (Chia was also a Harvard alumni) so this is what I am trying to say.

    I’ve been following NCAA basketball quite closely for 30 years, so I understand the rules, but hockey is a different animal compared to the 2 sports and clearly there are opportunities to cultivate relationships with players. You’d think if this was a priority, bringing in Paul Coffey, Mark Messier, Wayne Gretzky and even current players could be a tactic that could be deployed. If I ran an NHL team I certainly would be doing these sorts of things. Otherwise you are just wasting your draft picks.

  102. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Foot speed and resume.

    He had a positive impact when he played in the NHL. He was a good player, but not deployed properly.

  103. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I am very confident that if healthy Kemp will be a solid 3rd pairing NHL Dman within 3 yrs

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The Chiarelli point is in reference to the signing of Persson and the failure to cultivate a relationship with Marino.Perhaps they could have hired his twin brother with the Oilers as a video assistant (he is the Harvard video guy) or something of that nature.I think it was quite clear that Marino had the confidence of his coach, but his offensive opportunities were blocked by Adam Fox in his Freshman season, Fox and Rielly Walsh (NJ 3rd Rounder) in his sophomore season and then Fox, Walsh and Jack Rathbone (Van 4th Rounder) in his Junior season.

    If you just look at Marino’s stats you’d be underwhelmed and think he’d regressed, but by what I’ve read he was getting over 70% dzone starts against the elites.Chiarelli had a big part to play in this draft pick and the decisions about how to persuade them (Chia was also a Harvard alumni) so this is what I am trying to say.

    I’ve been following NCAA basketball quite closely for 30 years, so I understand the rules, but hockey is a different animal compared to the 2 sports and clearly there are opportunities to cultivate relationships with players.You’d think if this was a priority, bringing in Paul Coffey, Mark Messier, Wayne Gretzky and even current players could be a tactic that could be deployed.If I ran an NHL team I certainly would be doing these sorts of things.Otherwise you are just wasting your draft picks.

    My point was that Chiarelli did have a relationship with Marino – it was cultivated.

    It was when Chiarelli was fired that the door closed on the ability of the Oilers to sign the player after his senior year.

    If Chiarelli was still the GM, there would have been a reasonable likelihood that Marino would have signed in Edmonton – not for sure, I don’t know, but he did have a relationship with Chiarelli.

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