He’s a real straight shooter

by Lowetide

Every Oilers general manager has his own style. Glen Sather was a grinder, and liked to tell stories. Trade acquisitions would be rumored for a long time (Garry Unger, the annual Reijo Ruotsalainen deal) and then Sather would have a story surrounding it that arrived in the days following. Those stories often involving Slats getting a better deal by waiting. He was smart, so I believed him pretty much always.

Lots of leaks, some true some not so much. He just said what he thought, traded with the same guys and won many times. No idea why Sinden, Nanne or Phil Esposito answered the phone.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

Kevin Lowe’s regime was similar, moves weren’t necessarily telegraphed but the Comrie story was quite public and the media avails were part Knots Landing, part Burn After Reading. Lowe had an uneven record, but the 2006 deadline was fantastic.

Steve Tambellini was the one general manager who didn’t leak a thing, that’s why I think the Lubo-Whitney trade was Lowe (we knew about it) pulling the trigger on a deal the GM probably didn’t want to make.

MacT was similar to Lowe, he did some good things and some things that baffle to this day but mostly we knew ahead of time. I genuinely believe he would have been a great general manager if he’d worked his way through the ranks instead of just being awarded the top job. It’s the curse of all those glory Oilers of the 1980’s.

Peter Chiarelli was using an outdated blue book and didn’t value the pieces gifted, and he telegraphed everything from the Hall trade to the Lucic signing.

Ken Holland? No secrets. He tells you where he’s going, does what he wants. Kind of a bookend to Slats.

Remember this tweet? Pedersen was right on the mark, had the story over a week before the media avail announcing Holland.

Holland’s arrival was followed by Philip Broberg’s name moving up the wordle usage chart almost immediately. We knew Milan Lucic could be traded to Vancouver but Holland calmly held out for another rumored deal to Calgary.

Even this offseason, we’re getting snippets of information rolling down the tracks. Anton Slepyshev (more in a minute) might be coming over, Broberg will remain in Sweden for another season and talks continue with Filip Berglund and Markus Niemelainen (via Bob with Ken yesterday, I didn’t hear it but believe those things were said).

It doesn’t really matter how Holland goes about his business, it’s just interesting to see his style. It’s a perfect match for Edmonton to be honest, a straight shooter in a town that still does a lot of business over lunch.

Holland has enjoyed a good year. We’re already getting early news about the next one.

SLEPYSHEV

Toronto signed a nice player today (Alexander Barabanov) two-way forward who is 25 and owns an NHLE of 30.7. I expect he’ll see plenty of playing time in the top nine for the Maple Leafs next season.

That’s exactly the kind of role we might see for Anton Slepyshev, who is also 25 and has an NHLE of 54.9 after a fine 2019-20 season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’ll be a busy show with more news breaking about plans to get the wide wide world of sports back in our living rooms. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will pop by to talk about possible wingers for Connor McDavid and the emergence of Jones/Bear and what it means to the veterans. Adam Stanley, who writes about the PGA Tour, will discuss the cancellation of The Open and what might be the first sport to return. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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NDOilersfan

barry.moore23,

Amazing song from an amazing band. My #1 band of all time.

barry.moore23

Harpers Hair: Phhhhtttt….
https://youtu.be/-mJt_T0N0mQ

I’m certain you accidentally pasted one of your old girlfriend’s favorite songs ? and that’s OK we still love you.

🙂

€√¥£€^$

ArmchairGM,

So why do you think he stopped producing with McDavid in 2020, is it because 97’s injury? Or because he no longer played with the top point producers in the NHL?

jp

ArmchairGM: 11 points and -34 in 50 games this year… we’re halfway down the cliff already.

Or not. His possession metrics have remained fine relative to team.

Many an athlete has been pronounced finished prematurely. No one here is talking about making him a top 4D or anything.

ArmchairGM

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jp,

Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much.At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh.One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry.He’s not the player he once was for WSH.We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

11 points and -34 in 50 games this year… we’re halfway down the cliff already.

ArmchairGM

€√¥£€^$: My concern with Kassian is that he is incredibly streaky.I recall the start of last season and even in the preseason his game was donkey snot.His play well was below that of JP, Yamamoto and Rattie, and it wasn’t even close.If his game was at anywhere near an NHL level in the pre-season, Chiasson likely would not have been signed to a contract off his PTO. Kassian honestly looked like an ECHL bench warmer for close to 4 months.

I also had noticed that Zack hasn’t done very much around the time he signed his contract/Tkachuk bullshit, etc, so I wanted to take a very superficial look at his results from the past 2 seasons.

2018:Oct 8 games, 1 goal,0 assists, 7 PIM,5 shots 0.13 Pt/game, 0.63 shot/game 2.0 Shot%

Nov 14 – 0–0 –39–16 –0.00 – 1.14 –0.0%

Dec 14–1–1– 28– 19 –0.14 – 1.36 – 5.0%

2019:43–13 – 9 –26 – 71–0.61 – 1.65– 18.3%

Oct 14 – 3 – 6–8 –17–0.64 – 1.21–17.7%

Nov 14– 6 – 4–21 – 30–0.71 – 2.14 –20.0%

Dec 11 –4 – 4 – 19–21 – 0.73–1.91 –19.1%

2020:20 –2 –5 – 21– 31–0.35–1.55–6.5%

Pre & Post: 50 – 4 –6 – 95 –71–0.20–1.42 – 5.6%

2019 Only: 82–26– 23 –74 – 139–0.72 – 1.70 – 18.7%

In conclusion, I think 2019 (the calendar year only) will likely be the pinnacle of Zack Kassian’s NHL career.He of course had his personal challenges, which definitely negatively impacted his early career, but I don’t that the Oilers will ever realize the value of this contract, unless they are able deal it away for good value fairly quickly..

Note that his shooting percentage prior to the 2018-19 season was 10.7%, his scoring rate 0.13 ppg and his shot rate was 1.26 shots per game.

2019 calendar is basically the sum total of Kassian’s time with McDavid. Check out who his linemates were the rest of the time for some additional context… and while you’re at it, check out who Kapanen and Johnsson get to play with on a nightly basis.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar: With that said, I think Green would likely come in more expensive and Benning is younger with more runway in his career……

Holland has engaged Green to mentor the young defence; seeing how he’s a former all star how you manage to compare him to the perpetual tweener Benning has got to be a miracle of some mental function that I do not want to have lol

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
In a way I’d rather keep Matty.He’s a good soldier.He’s more than covered his (Bruins) draft bet, and was one of the nice adds by Pete.Any time a local kid finds success with the Oil it’s a great story.

But, if he and Green are likely to be not much more than 3RD except for a shift/game or few at a time, then the player to move on from is the one who would return more in trade.Since Green isn’t signed, that’s obviously Benning, but assuming equal contracts I think Benning would return more.He’s younger, and his stats playing top-4 could entice a GM.

If Benning gets us a roster player that adds balance, or a decently high pick, I’d move him along to keep the pipeline flowing.Roll with Green until Bouchard takes his spot.

Fair enough and i have thought the same – Benning would return an asset in a trade and Green is a free signing.

With that said, I think Green would likely come in more expensive and Benning is younger with more runway in his career……

meanashell11

Any news on Colby Cave? I have looked around but no updates I can see?

€√¥£€^$

Nothing yet, might be a few days until we learn anything beyond he is stable and recovering. The cyst was in the middle of his brain, basically, so until he is conscious, they likely won’t know much regarding the impact of the surgery.

meanashell11

ugh….

I saw a quote the other day and I think of it a lot lately.

Dear 2020,
Wrong hole.

Sincerely, Everybody.

hunter1909

Hunter1909™ happily predicts the Holland/Tippett combination winning the Stanley Cup within the next 5 seasons, guaranteed. Possibly more than once is highly probable also.

They check every conceivable box for success; Holland’s Detroit model plus Tippett’s yet to win the big one ambition. Add McDraisaitl and instantly there is nothing in the way, almost.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jp,

Certainly not ancient.

But he’s nearing the cliff for non-elite players.At last viewing, Mike Green is not an elite player.

I’d like to have him around for the upcoming year, on a fair contract — something in the 1 year ~$2M range.But I’m not trading Larsson just because he’s an option.Benning, maybe, depending on return.

I would agree with this for sure.

He can play 3RD for me (although I’d almost prefer the more physical and defensively responsible Benning) for not 2RD with any regularity.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

In a way I’d rather keep Matty. He’s a good soldier. He’s more than covered his (Bruins) draft bet, and was one of the nice adds by Pete. Any time a local kid finds success with the Oil it’s a great story.

But, if he and Green are likely to be not much more than 3RD except for a shift/game or few at a time, then the player to move on from is the one who would return more in trade. Since Green isn’t signed, that’s obviously Benning, but assuming equal contracts I think Benning would return more. He’s younger, and his stats playing top-4 could entice a GM.

If Benning gets us a roster player that adds balance, or a decently high pick, I’d move him along to keep the pipeline flowing. Roll with Green until Bouchard takes his spot.

OriginalPouzar

jp: You mean 34 year old Mike Green? The 58th oldest player in the league? Holland shouldn’t be giving him a 4 year deal or anything, but contrary to what you might have heard he’s not ancient.

Nope, he’s not ancient and he’s a few months clear of his next contract being a “35 plus contract” but, at the same time, his play has dropped off severely over the last few years.

To me, he’ll likely be too expensive to be a 3RD (in replacement of Benning say) but not good enough to be an every day 2RD (in replacement of Larsson say).

Just doesn’t seem like the right fit for a re-sign to me but I think Holland likes him and, given deployment in the 2 games he played, Coach T. might think he’s got some 2nd pairing in him….

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jp,

Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much.At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh.One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry.He’s not the player he once was for WSH.We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

Holland shouldn’t break the bank for Green but I also believe he may have some left in the tank. I think he might have some surprising upside and I’m a little intrigued honestly. (I acknowledge he may also head off the cliff soon, or already have).

I’ve posted this before, but over the 3 seasons before the current one Green was 16th in the NHL in 5v5 P/60 for defensemen. In 18-19 he was 13th in the league at 1.36 P/60. He’d have placed 4th among all Oilers last season (behind Nuge and ahead of Kassian).

He’s brought high end even strength offense in the not so distant past. I’d love to see next season start with a Bear-Larsson-Green-Bouchard depth chart.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

OriginalPouzar,

That’s the same depth chart I have an eye towards starting next season with as well.

Green would be a good mentor for the younguns like Jones, Bear and Bouchard. Hell, even the ‘vets’ like Klef and Nurse could learn from Green I’m sure. He has a rep as a good leader and having someone like to learn from in practice can’t hurt.

Ryan

jp,

I miss this place. Fuck, I miss hockey.

I really miss the time in our collective lives where our biggest worry was over clean dispositions of bad Oiler contracts.

Hope you’re doing well JP. Since you’re living in Massachusetts, I’m going to call you Harvard from now on. 🙂

With every post you write, I read it with the “where do you park your car” accent.

Hope all of our Lowetidians in Merica are safe.

Anyone heard from Leadfarmer?

Jeebus, social safety nets serve a purpose at times.

Six million Americans filled for unemployment.

For Canadian folks, unemployment insurance doesn’t mean what you think it means in the States.

Tops off at something like 500 bucks for three months or so.

Here’s a food bank in Pittsburgh the other day.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixq5kCJYfPw

Hope everyone is well.

jp

Ha, maybe MIT instead?

Thanks though. And I haven’t been here long enough to pick up the accent (I don’t think).

Yeah, normal life is sorely missed. And not having hockey (I naively thought it might continue while we stayed home) is a kick in the junk on top of the rest.

My family and I are fine. I’m being paid to stay home and (mostly) not work so I can’t complain considering what a lot of others are facing. You’re right this is one of the times that a decent safety net comes in handy.

It sounds from a couple of people I know working in hospitals here that the health care system is feeling strain but not overwhelmed, at least yet. It seems things in NYC are on a completely different level unfortunately.

Leadfarmer posted earlier in this thread, a little time to read and post is a good sign for sure.

All the best to you and everyone else out there as well.

jp

OriginalPouzar: – the Kassian extension – the timing more than anything didn’t make a ton of sense and, at the end of the day, the best case scenario is that he’s worth $3.2M a year and year over year. There is essentially no chance he’ll out-perform the contract and its reasonable that he’ll under-perform. The team is better with Kass but the contract is “meh” at best.

I agree with most of what you’re saying but not this.

I absolutely think Kassian could out-perform his contract. It’s not particularly likely, so I agree the 4 year deal isn’t a good ‘bet’, but it’s not that unlikely either IMO.

A 50 point forward would be expected to earn around $5.5M, a 40 point forward about $4.5M and a 30 point forward about $3.0M.

(This is based on the league ranks of 50, 40 and 30 point scorers among all forwards from 18-19 [cause of less games this year] and the corresponding salary at that rank among NHL forwards this year. Example: Filip Forsberg ranked 98th in the NHL in 18-19 with 50 points. The 98th ranked cap hit among forwards this year was Jason Zucker at $5.5M)

So… if Kassian sticks in the top 6 for much of the remainder of his contract and scores 40 points per season he’ll be a significant value contract (relative to the expected ~$4.5M that one would pay a 40 point player).

He only needs to average 30-odd points per season to be fair value for the deal. That’s not including any intangibles he brings, which I’m giving him a little credit for.

I still don’t think he’s a great bet to bring value for the deal, but it’s not a terribly high bar to clear. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up being value either.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much. At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh. One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry. He’s not the player he once was for WSH. We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

Harpers Hair

In this precarious time, please remember that our elders are fighting for their lives and are facing unimaginable fear and many are forced to do it alone. Please hear them.

https://youtu.be/OVhA01J0Zsg

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

That’s completely fair, and sorry for the strong reply. I agree that replacing Larsson with Green at 2RD would be a bad decision. And moving Benning would be more about what Tippett thinks of Benning than Green (which isn’t much it seems).

I’d be very happy with Green as 3RD for 1 X $2M. My guess is that Holland gives him 2 X $2.5M, pending the cap collapsing (not that I think that’s a good idea, just a prediction).

teddyturnbuckle

“ Hey, it ain’t such a long drop don’t stammer don’t stutter
From the diamonds in the sidewalk to the dirt in the gutter
And you carry those bruises
To remind you wherever you go.”

-John Prine

Favourite lyrics from Prine. RIP This guy wrote lyrics for everybody.

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0: One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

Phhhhtttt….
https://youtu.be/-mJt_T0N0mQ

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

Certainly not ancient.

But he’s nearing the cliff for non-elite players. At last viewing, Mike Green is not an elite player.

I’d like to have him around for the upcoming year, on a fair contract — something in the 1 year ~$2M range. But I’m not trading Larsson just because he’s an option. Benning, maybe, depending on return.

€√¥£€^$

ArmchairGM:
There are a lot of people on this site who would trade good assets to Toronto for one of Kapanen or Johnsson. I’ve seen Oilers fans suggest that trading Nurse for Kapanen one-for-one would be a good move for Edmonton. I get there’s an age difference / intangibles, etc, but basically these guys are paid to score goals, and they usually get to play alongside superstar linemates while attempting to do just that.

5v5 goals, past 2 seasons:

Kassian: 27 goals, 0.84 G/60, $3.2M x 4
Kapanen: 24 goals, 0.75 G/60, $3.2M x 2
Johnsson: 19 goals, 0.80 G/60, $3.4M x 3

And yet, here we are talking about the Kassian contract as a “flat out failure” and a future buyout.

My concern with Kassian is that he is incredibly streaky. I recall the start of last season and even in the preseason his game was donkey snot. His play well was below that of JP, Yamamoto and Rattie, and it wasn’t even close. If his game was at anywhere near an NHL level in the pre-season, Chiasson likely would not have been signed to a contract off his PTO. Kassian honestly looked like an ECHL bench warmer for close to 4 months.

I also had noticed that Zack hasn’t done very much around the time he signed his contract/Tkachuk bullshit, etc, so I wanted to take a very superficial look at his results from the past 2 seasons.

2018: Oct 8 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 7 PIM, 5 shots 0.13 Pt/game, 0.63 shot/game 2.0 Shot%

Nov 14 – 0 – 0 – 39 – 16 – 0.00 – 1.14 – 0.0%

Dec 14 – 1 – 1 – 28 – 19 – 0.14 – 1.36 – 5.0%

2019: 43 – 13 – 9 – 26 – 71 – 0.61 – 1.65 – 18.3%

Oct 14 – 3 – 6 – 8 – 17 – 0.64 – 1.21 – 17.7%

Nov 14 – 6 – 4 – 21 – 30 – 0.71 – 2.14 – 20.0%

Dec 11 – 4 – 4 – 19 – 21 – 0.73 – 1.91 – 19.1%

2020: 20 – 2 – 5 – 21 – 31 – 0.35 – 1.55 – 6.5%

Pre & Post: 50 – 4 – 6 – 95 – 71 – 0.20 – 1.42 – 5.6%

2019 Only: 82 – 26 – 23 – 74 – 139 – 0.72 – 1.70 – 18.7%

In conclusion, I think 2019 (the calendar year only) will likely be the pinnacle of Zack Kassian’s NHL career. He of course had his personal challenges, which definitely negatively impacted his early career, but I don’t that the Oilers will ever realize the value of this contract, unless they are able deal it away for good value fairly quickly..

Note that his shooting percentage prior to the 2018-19 season was 10.7%, his scoring rate 0.13 ppg and his shot rate was 1.26 shots per game.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Bettman finally alluding to unlikelihood of hockey this season: 8 players known to have Covid-19

– Just haven’t seen a path for NHL hockey to finish season since this started

– Its funny that the NHL has “asked players to self-quarantine untill April 15th”. I’m guessing they will extend this. Seeing as its the law and stuff like public health

Harpers Hair

Ben: Ouch. Ow. Ugh. What a writer.

Perhaps the best short story writer of the century. Every song a classic.

TheTikk

Lowetide:
RIP John Prine.

Ouch. Ow. Ugh. What a writer.

Harpers Hair
Optimism is like heroin

Lowetide,

With both Chia and Kass I am all good with those contracts. Zack compliments McD and another scoring winger for a well balanced line. For Chia I think it’s important to look at his strengths. 12goals an hour on the pp i believe. despite the lower stat line the PP hums along and has better result than with Neal, who also specializes in the same areas.

3.2 is ok for a good complimentary winger in the top 6
2 is also ok for a 4th line player who plays pp min to good effect

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey: Wonder how the truncated season will affect the grey beards of the league, like Thornton and Marleau, Craig Anderson, The King and crucially, the Edmonton Mikes?

You mean 34 year old Mike Green? The 58th oldest player in the league? Holland shouldn’t be giving him a 4 year deal or anything, but contrary to what you might have heard he’s not ancient.

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
Gregor with a couple tidbits from Holland:

– its Holland’s understanding that, if the season isn’t completed, the Oilers will retain the 3rd round pick as Neal didn’t reach 21 goals

– Holland has made an offer to Slepyshev

I’m not sure if there is a Holland interview that can be listed to (Holland was on with Stauff yesterday and these quotes are not from there).

Listening to the verbal now, Holland’s “understanding” that the pick would not transfer is not based on anything other than a strict reading of the condition. That is, there hasn’t been any guidance/determination from the league on these types of conditional provisions.

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0: One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

I was at the Power Slave tour when it hit Edmonton.

On Jan 31st I tweeted this:

Maskguy55
@Woodguy55
·
Jan 31
First Concert – Helix/Kick Axe
Last Concert – Ghost
Best Concert – Iron Madien (Powerslave Tour)
Worst Concert – Helix/Headpins
Loudest Concert – AC/DC
Seen the Most – 54-40
Most Surprising – Myles Kennedy w/ Slash
Next Concert – TBA
Wish I Could’ve Seen – Ray Charles

LInk: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1223336972816547841

Owned the LIve After Death cassette.

Like most of everyone’s most played cassettes it lost pretty much all the writing on it and you recognized your tapes by unique markers of various origins on it.

Violent Femmes eponymous debut album, Judas Priest Screaming For Vengeance, U2 War, The Dead Milkman Big Lizard in my Backyard, Anthrax Fist Full of Metal.

None of them had factory printing on them.

Good times.

Edit: Metallica Ride The Lightning.

First heard of them on Mind Compression. A program on CJSR dedicated to metal.

A friend of mine I knew since I was 14 ended up hosting the same program years later. His name was John Kyle but was known as Metal John on CJSR.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack: does anybody know what caused it?terribly sad news …. praying for his recovery

I’m sure its been cited in the comments but I haven’t had a chance to look through – it was a cyst.

Woodguy v2.0

barry.moore23:
Is there a better song than Hallowed be Thy Name from ‘Live After Death’ ?? I know there is butwhat the hell it’s Tuesday Woot !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MtVM_6o2IE

?

One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

OriginalPouzar

Here is the Holland media avai – just starting to listen now (we already know the highlights re: Berglund, Slepy, etc):

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–holland-040720/t-277437406/c-5371909

OriginalPouzar

RonnieB: For what it’s worth,when Kassian got his extension Brian Burke said on TV that 30 other GMs would have signed that contract in a minute.
Kassian brings a lot more to the table than just his pretty smile.
Edit: Burke didn’t specify whether or not those GMs were still employed.

I actually like Brian Burke as an analyst and enjoy his spots with Stauff – he does know the game from various angles.

At the same time, I took that comment with a bit of a grain of salt – all it really means is that Burke liked the contract.

My main issue with the contract is there is no real upside and there is downside.

In my opinion, best case scenario is that he’s value for $3.2M in any given year. I don’t think there is much chance that his play in any year will exceed that value. I don’t think the chances are great that he provides $3.2M of value 4 years in a row.

It seems highly likely that he underperforms the contract over its term and almost impossible that he over-performs it.

Don’t get me wrong, the team is better with Kass than without and Holland was in a bit of a tough spot on this one.

I think Holland did panic a bit which seems a bit odd for him – I think he wanted to get it done by the deadline so that there was no argument about “selling Kass”.

OriginalPouzar

dustrock:
I think B+ is fair for Holland.The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long.It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

I agree – a key to the off-season is to avoid re-signing Mike Smith.

I think there are better/more consistent options out there for the price point Smith would in at again.

OriginalPouzar

jp:

Slepyshev and Caggiula were on the Oilers together for 2 season (2016-16 and 2017-18). Slepyshev played 91 games (1019 5v5 minutes, basically zero special teams time). Caggiula played 127 games (1416 minutes 5v5, plus secondary PP and PK minutes). I’m forgetting how much injury impacted Slepyshev’s GP, but for sure he was a regular healthy scratch while Caggiula was only rarely. TMac is responsible for some of that for sure.

Solid post and I apologize for only responding to one (minor) point.

If I recall correctly (and I may not), Slepy had a successful playoffs in 2017, playing much of the ANA series with Drai (and they outscored their possession metrics).

The fanbase was generally excited for him to be a solid part of the team in 2017/18 either on the 2nd line or middle 6 but he got hurt early and was out for a while and, well, never really got traction after that point.

I would say that one injury cratered his first NHL attempt.

jp

I do recall a lot of optimism for Slepyshev (and Draisaitl) after the playoff run (hell, the whole team).

They really didn’t play much together, or have particular success though. I checked, they played 37:13 minutes together 5v5 (over the whole playoff season). Goals were 3F-3A and they got a shade under 30% of the shots.

Overall Draisaitl had a nice playoffs, leading the team scoring 13-6-10-16 and running his own line with some success. He still played a large majority of his 5v5 minutes with McDavid (116) and Maroon (92) though vs only 37 min with Slepyshev.

In those 37 min with Slepyshev, Draisaitl did score 3-1-4 (6.45P/60) but Slepyshev didn’t get a single point.

Slepyshev scored 12-3-0-3 in those playoffs, earning a regular lineup spot. I do agree the expectation coming into 2017 was that he’d cement his lineup spot, and that the injury may have been very important in that not happening.

Maybe the Oilers need a Slepyshev to get back into the playoffs finally 🙂

OriginalPouzar

yeraslob:
Perhaps Haas could be a winger?His speed is noticeable.

For sure – I think that one of Sheahan or Haas will be brought back in addition to Khaira and we know that Tip liked Khaira at center for those couple of weeks. One of the two will be a winger or scratch (on the assumption that a legit 3C is acquired – or Marody pops).

Haas is “faster” but he doesn’t PK and he hasn’t shown to be able to “handle the grind” of being an every day NHL player.

At this point, I take Sheahan over Haas – he’s proven.

€√¥£€^$

If there is a CBO I target Jeff Carter as 3C 2 x $1.8 million (assuming there are 2 CBO’s per team and he and Quick are bought out; how about Quick as a back-up, lol) and then Alan Quine as 4C. He hasn’t shown well in a limited number of FO’s, but is an excellent PKer with good speed and good results in his recent limited NHL call-ups and would be very cheap.

I don’t watch Flames games, but I listen to The Fan 960 most mornings and I always hear every commentator, including their Play by Play man (who seems to give very honest assessments of players, IMO) rave about the guy, they all seem to believe he is the best 4C in the current org. He was 47.8% on the dot in 61 games with NYI 3 seasons ago. Not only is he an upgrade on Haas, at worst he is a high-level AHL vet.

Also, he was a Holland draft pick in 2011 (he didn’t sign with Detroit and was drafted by NJ in 2013), and a top, consistent scorer in Stockton the last 2 years.

Slepy – Connor – Kassian
Nuge – Drai – Yammo
AA – Carter – Chiasson (or JP)
Nygard – Quine – Archibald

xxx – xxx

Melvis

frjohnk: Iron Maiden is my favourite band.

I’m not sure if I’ve listened to that song more than“Rime of the Ancient Mariner”, but they are my two favourite live songs from Maiden.

Metallica’s Master of Puppets live Seattle 89 is on par with those two songs for me

Seeing as I was baptized in your house – and haven’t been back since – I might have to come over one of these days and remonstrate with you;-)

” My dear friends…I lieu of a sermon today…and for your listening pleasure, let me share my favorite band with you…Iron Maiden. Choir…take it away!

OriginalPouzar

Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
Oilers PR with an update on @cavemn12

“Edmonton Oilers forward Colby Cave is now out of emergency surgery at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto where doctors removed a colloid cyst that was causing pressure on his brain. Colby remains in a medically induced coma.”

€√¥£€^$

OriginalPouzar,

Colby is out of surgery, as of 35 minutes ago.

Colloid cyst was removed, which was putting pressure on his brain.

Munny

Thank you for this.

defmn

Thank you. Hoping for the best for him.

OriginalPouzar

yeraslob:
Yep, all aboard for Slepy to come back.Any love for Haas?I keep remembering his penalty shot goal and he definitely brings speed.

The Oilers have two confirmed centers going in to next season: McDavid and Drai.

The Oilers need a 3C and a 4C.

Riley Sheahan played 3C for most of the year but I think most would agree that he is a 4C and, to me, 3C is the one position to upgrade externally (materially).

I think 4C is a “battle” between Khaira, Haas and Sheahan. Two of those 3 will be on the team, in my opinion (one as 4C and one as the depth 4C/13th forward, etc.).

Khaira is signed and on the team and I think Holland re-signs one of Haas and Sheahan. I lean towards Riley for a one year term and less than what Archie re-signed for.

yeraslob

Perhaps Haas could be a winger? His speed is noticeable.

OriginalPouzar

Ben:
It’ll be fascinating to see what they do with contract expiration dates. I’m assuming the PA can just agree to some sort of blanket adjustment to all 19/20 SPCs on behalf of the players?

But the timing might throw out normal alignments around the draft and player movement leading up to free agency.

And for teams like Arizona, I wonder if there will still be a way to recoup a little value on a Taylor Hall by giving teams exclusive negation rights for a few days…

Wacky times!

Are you speaking about extending current contracts that expire at the end of June if they do end up playing hockey during the summer?

Yes, the NHLPA/League can certainly agree to extend those (along with insurance, etc.) but that are some related matters that aren’t so easy.

For example, “foreign players” are on what are called P-1 visas and they generally expire at the time an existing contract expires (in fact, I think in the US you can’t even apply for the visa unless a contract offer is in place and there requirements are firm and full).

Anyways, the league agreeing to extend a contract does not in itself extend the visa – that’s obviously a seperate matter to be approved by government.

For the Oilers, I assume the Haas is on one of these visas and I’m not sure he’d be able to play in July/August.

I’m not sure about Nygard – he has an extension in place but I wouldn’t be so sure his P-1 extension application has gone through.

Caveat: This “knowledge” came from one guest on an Oilers podcast a few weeks ago (can’t remember who it was or what show he was on: LT, ON, Gregor) and some follow up “internet research”.

OriginalPouzar

flea:
If the season is cancelled, I wonder if any consideration is given to teams like the Oilers who gave up picks to acquire players.

Theoretically those picks should generate more income in the form of playoff revenue. If I’m an owner I’m asking for some compensatory picks in the draft.

Thankfully the main picks the Oilers gave up were for a player under control (Athanasiou). Think about a team like Arizona who are getting completely burned by this.

I think keeping the 3rd rounder in this draft more than makes up for the 5th round and 4th rounder as payment on Green and Ennis.

OriginalPouzar

jp: I agree with this characterization. He showed flashes but was completely underwhelming to my eye 99% of the time. Still, he was a competent NHL player even last time we saw him with the Oilers.

He seems to have taken real strides with his game since then (that’s a real nice KHL season he just had). I’d be excited to give him another chance, worst case he’s a Granlund/Cave/Russell type depth option. I think 50/50 he’s more than that, probably just a solid 3rd liner but possibly more. Definitely a good bet for ~$1M if he’s interested IMO.

I agree with most of this.

He was a serviceable NHL player 2-3 years ago when he left and, from accounts, his game has matured. He’s now starting his prime years and has offensive confidence.

I don’t agree with the bottom though – I think, at the very least, he’s a VERY serviceable bottom six guy along the lines of Archie/Sheahan (above the Russell/Cave level – his skating and skill put him above those two as a floor, in my opinion).

jp

Sure, that’s probably true.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
Was it that you didn’t like the pick or you thought he should take a forward? Holland has had a long standing relationship with many people in the hockey know, in Sweden. My thinking is that he got the goods on Broberg from more than one of his trusted sources. Given the young mans size, skating and Holland’s people in Sweden I am of the belief that Broberg will be a special player. All that shines bright early is not necessarily gold.

Yup, I have to agree with this.

I’ve got to admit, in the second after the pick, I was a bit disappointed but, at the end of the day, Holland was in the know that (1) his team needed/needs top 6 wingers, (2) the defence prospect pipeline is vastly superior to the forward prospect pipeline and (3) the fans were looking for a scoring forward.

He knew all of the above and still took a d-man, and a d-man the he knew would be at last 2-3 development years away from the NHL.

Whether Broberg turns out to be BPA we won’t know for years and years but I’m confidant that Holland thought he was BPA and I admire the man for making the pick knowing it was his first major move and the fan-base would generally not like it.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack:
Ken gets an B+ for his work so far. He didn’t have much wiggle room, but seemed to get the most out of the roster.

Tippett turned out to be the right guy behind the bench.
Lucic trade was good before the ink was dry.

Lots of lower end bets on the roster, which created competition and ultimately gave the team a better (not good) supporting cast.

Mike Smith signing worked out well.

Didn’t like the Broberg pick. But we don’t know what we don’t know. If Broberg turns into an everyday NHL defenseman for a decade, that is a win.

Also, like the adds at the deadline.

Great work Ken. Keep it up.

As an outsider, its tough to “know” how much of an effect a coach and his staff has on the team but it really does seem that Coach T. did a fantastic job and was an important factor in team success – maybe the most important factor.

Huge credit to Holland as he seems to have knocked that one out of the park.

—————

Holland stated early what he wanted to do in the off-season – acquire more skill and speed for the bottom six and help the PK – he did exactly what he said he was going to do.

The speed and NHL ability of the bottom 6 and the huge uptick in the PK were massive for the season

The bottom six bets worked out well – sure Granlund and Jurco didn’t workout but they were buried for a combined hit of a couple hundred grand. Definitely off-set by the pay-off on the Archie and Sheahan bets.

—————

On the negatives:

– I saw (see) no reason for the second year on Chiasson – it Chiassor wouldn’t sign without it, I think Holland should have walked. The contract is not the end of the world, its just a couple of million for next year and he does produce on the PP but, at the end of the day, its simply tough to fit him in to the lineup

– the Kassian extension – the timing more than anything didn’t make a ton of sense and, at the end of the day, the best case scenario is that he’s worth $3.2M a year and year over year. There is essentially no chance he’ll out-perform the contract and its reasonable that he’ll under-perform. The team is better with Kass but the contract is “meh” at best.

———–

Now, this next off-season’s key’s assuming the cap will be essentially what it was this past year (which makes sense):

– dispose of Rusty either clean (or minimal retainment) or for a replacement player that is also overpaid for only 1 year but fills a position of need

– one material external acquisition (3C) whihc, of course, is contingent on the Rusty disposition

– sign Griess or trade for DeSmith or something along those lines – don’t break the bank on the 1B but don’t re-sign Mike Smith.

hungoverman

Hey LT. I was listening to your show as the news broke about Colby Cave. Thank you for being so compassionate and caring when you were reading it. That is the reason I listen every day!!!
PS…please write a book.

Harpers Hair
geowal

Brogan Rafferty must be coordinating the efforts!

Kidding, great news, hopefully Alberta follows suit

OriginalPouzar

Oilers tweeted a recent update from Colby’s wife (from IG) – noting he’s in surgery fighting for his life.

Geez….

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1247644780370132992