He’s a real straight shooter

Every Oilers general manager has his own style. Glen Sather was a grinder, and liked to tell stories. Trade acquisitions would be rumored for a long time (Garry Unger, the annual Reijo Ruotsalainen deal) and then Sather would have a story surrounding it that arrived in the days following. Those stories often involving Slats getting a better deal by waiting. He was smart, so I believed him pretty much always.

Lots of leaks, some true some not so much. He just said what he thought, traded with the same guys and won many times. No idea why Sinden, Nanne or Phil Esposito answered the phone.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

Kevin Lowe’s regime was similar, moves weren’t necessarily telegraphed but the Comrie story was quite public and the media avails were part Knots Landing, part Burn After Reading. Lowe had an uneven record, but the 2006 deadline was fantastic.

Steve Tambellini was the one general manager who didn’t leak a thing, that’s why I think the Lubo-Whitney trade was Lowe (we knew about it) pulling the trigger on a deal the GM probably didn’t want to make.

MacT was similar to Lowe, he did some good things and some things that baffle to this day but mostly we knew ahead of time. I genuinely believe he would have been a great general manager if he’d worked his way through the ranks instead of just being awarded the top job. It’s the curse of all those glory Oilers of the 1980’s.

Peter Chiarelli was using an outdated blue book and didn’t value the pieces gifted, and he telegraphed everything from the Hall trade to the Lucic signing.

Ken Holland? No secrets. He tells you where he’s going, does what he wants. Kind of a bookend to Slats.

Remember this tweet? Pedersen was right on the mark, had the story over a week before the media avail announcing Holland.

Holland’s arrival was followed by Philip Broberg’s name moving up the wordle usage chart almost immediately. We knew Milan Lucic could be traded to Vancouver but Holland calmly held out for another rumored deal to Calgary.

Even this offseason, we’re getting snippets of information rolling down the tracks. Anton Slepyshev (more in a minute) might be coming over, Broberg will remain in Sweden for another season and talks continue with Filip Berglund and Markus Niemelainen (via Bob with Ken yesterday, I didn’t hear it but believe those things were said).

It doesn’t really matter how Holland goes about his business, it’s just interesting to see his style. It’s a perfect match for Edmonton to be honest, a straight shooter in a town that still does a lot of business over lunch.

Holland has enjoyed a good year. We’re already getting early news about the next one.

SLEPYSHEV

Toronto signed a nice player today (Alexander Barabanov) two-way forward who is 25 and owns an NHLE of 30.7. I expect he’ll see plenty of playing time in the top nine for the Maple Leafs next season.

That’s exactly the kind of role we might see for Anton Slepyshev, who is also 25 and has an NHLE of 54.9 after a fine 2019-20 season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’ll be a busy show with more news breaking about plans to get the wide wide world of sports back in our living rooms. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will pop by to talk about possible wingers for Connor McDavid and the emergence of Jones/Bear and what it means to the veterans. Adam Stanley, who writes about the PGA Tour, will discuss the cancellation of The Open and what might be the first sport to return. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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126 Responses to "He’s a real straight shooter"

  1. tileguy says:

    Sad day for us Tiger fans as Al Kaline has passed. What great memories I have sitting in the old tiger stadium watching him throw out batters at first base from right field.

  2. dustrock says:

    Definitely not opposed to Slepyshev coming back. Maybe he can unlock him better than McLellan.

    Thought Sleppy had a few games where he flattered to deceive and you thought he might be a guy that could play top 6 but most of the time he didn’t really move the needle for me.

  3. jtblack says:

    Ken gets an B+ for his work so far. He didn’t have much wiggle room, but seemed to get the most out of the roster.

    Tippett turned out to be the right guy behind the bench.
    Lucic trade was good before the ink was dry.

    Lots of lower end bets on the roster, which created competition and ultimately gave the team a better (not good) supporting cast.

    Mike Smith signing worked out well.

    Didn’t like the Broberg pick. But we don’t know what we don’t know. If Broberg turns into an everyday NHL defenseman for a decade, that is a win.

    Also, like the adds at the deadline.

    Great work Ken. Keep it up.

  4. jtblack says:

    Where would Slepyshev play? 3 RW? 1 RW?

  5. jp says:

    dustrock:

    Thought Sleppy had a few games where he flattered to deceive and you thought he might be a guy that could play top 6 but most of the time he didn’t really move the needle for me.

    I agree with this characterization. He showed flashes but was completely underwhelming to my eye 99% of the time. Still, he was a competent NHL player even last time we saw him with the Oilers.

    He seems to have taken real strides with his game since then (that’s a real nice KHL season he just had). I’d be excited to give him another chance, worst case he’s a Granlund/Cave/Russell type depth option. I think 50/50 he’s more than that, probably just a solid 3rd liner but possibly more. Definitely a good bet for ~$1M if he’s interested IMO.

  6. jp says:

    I’ve really enjoyed Holland’s style.

    And I know it’s a good mark, but B+ still feels low to me.

    Not too many expected the Oilers to be in a playoff position at the end of the year, major credit due to Holland and Tippett for that.

    I liked his deadline moves too, damn same we probably won’t get to see them in the playoffs.

    +1 on “Great work, keep it up”

  7. who says:

    jp: I agree with this characterization. He showed flashes but was completely underwhelming to my eye 99% of the time. Still, he was a competent NHL player even last time we saw him with the Oilers.

    He seems to have taken real strides with his game since then (that’s a real nice KHL season he just had). I’d be excited to give him another chance, worst case he’s a Granlund/Cave/Russell type depth option. I think 50/50 he’s more than that, probably just a solid 3rd liner but possibly more. Definitely a good bet for ~$1M if he’s interested IMO.

    I always liked Slepeshev. Thought there was untapped offensive potential there. Seemed like he got shafted by Tmac.
    I thought he was a better offensive player than Cagguila. But it was Cagguila who kept getting the PP and McDavid time.

  8. flea says:

    If the season is cancelled, I wonder if any consideration is given to teams like the Oilers who gave up picks to acquire players.

    Theoretically those picks should generate more income in the form of playoff revenue. If I’m an owner I’m asking for some compensatory picks in the draft.

    Thankfully the main picks the Oilers gave up were for a player under control (Athanasiou). Think about a team like Arizona who are getting completely burned by this.

  9. jp says:

    jtblack:
    Where would Slepyshev play?3 RW?1 RW?

    My guess is 3rd line LW/RW, but there’s going to be some kind of auditions for McDavid’s wingers going forward.

    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto aren’t set in stone (and were broken up at the end), so Draisaitl’s wingers too I guess. AA and Kassian are kind of the incumbents. If he’s not bought out or moved Neal is still in the conversation IMO. Ennis is likely to return (will be difficult if Neal isn’t moved though). And Slepyshev is definitely in that conversation too. Archibald, Nygard, Benson and Chiasson could be more long-shot possibilities. Maybe Holland can even swing a more expensive addition (though I doubt it).

    Should be fun once hockey returns!

  10. BONE207 says:

    Did he invent the battery?

  11. Ben says:

    It’ll be fascinating to see what they do with contract expiration dates. I’m assuming the PA can just agree to some sort of blanket adjustment to all 19/20 SPCs on behalf of the players?

    But the timing might throw out normal alignments around the draft and player movement leading up to free agency.

    And for teams like Arizona, I wonder if there will still be a way to recoup a little value on a Taylor Hall by giving teams exclusive negation rights for a few days…

    Wacky times!

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    You nailed it Al, Holland tells it how it is.

    From his very first press conference, he expressed his short and medium/long term plans for the team and even expressed the medium/longer term plan was paramount.

    He never strayed from either the short term or long term plan and made moves to help in the short term that didn’t materially diminish the chances for the medium/long term plan to succeed.

    Along the way he expressed nuances to the plan – how current and short term team performance will consequent in-season moves.

    He expressed the type of deal he wouldn’t make under any circumstances (for example 1st round pick for a rental).

    I am one that likes this style but that may be because I am on-board with his medium and long term plan – some (many) were/are hoping for more material short term acquisitions that may not be on board.

  13. Yeti says:

    Random stats question: has anyone tried to develop a more accurate NHL-E through analysis of consecutive years played in the same league? i.e. can we get a better read on Slepyshev’s true potential through an NHL-E2, which would look at two years of KHL results rather than one? That might help round out some outliers caused by a player going on a heater.

  14. yeraslob says:

    Yep, all aboard for Slepy to come back. Any love for Haas? I keep remembering his penalty shot goal and he definitely brings speed.

  15. jp says:

    who: I always liked Slepeshev. Thought there was untapped offensive potential there. Seemed like he got shafted by Tmac.
    I thought he was a better offensive player than Cagguila. But it was Cagguila who kept getting the PP and McDavid time.

    Well hopefully Slepyshev has found that potential now. Definitely would love to see him get another shot.

    As for Caggiula, his biggest issue was what he gave up. I wouldn’t argue he was better than Slepyshev but it’s not clear either way to me. Maybe TMac deserves some flack but I don’t know…

    Slepyshev and Caggiula were on the Oilers together for 2 season (2016-16 and 2017-18). Slepyshev played 91 games (1019 5v5 minutes, basically zero special teams time). Caggiula played 127 games (1416 minutes 5v5, plus secondary PP and PK minutes). I’m forgetting how much injury impacted Slepyshev’s GP, but for sure he was a regular healthy scratch while Caggiula was only rarely. TMac is responsible for some of that for sure.

    Looking at their most common linemates, funny that Caggiula was Slepyshev’s most common while Slepyshev was Caggiula’s 2nd most common (after Kassian). They were terrible together scoring just 0.22P/60 in 273 minutes (1GF-5GA together).

    Looking at their centers:
    Caggiula (1.14P/60 overall 5v5) with:
    Draisaitl 254min 1.18P/60
    Letestu 234min 0.51
    McDavid 213min 2.25
    Strome 207min 0.87
    Nuge 158min 1.90

    Slepyshev (1.29P/60 overall) with:
    Letestu 185min 1.63P/60
    Draisaitl 170min 1.71
    Strome 150min 0.80
    Nuge 117min 2.06
    McDavid 113min 2.03

    So I guess Caggiula did get slightly more minutes (proportion of) with better centres, but it’s not a huge difference. And Slepyshev was better also with most of those Cs. So maybe TMac deserves more credit than I’m giving him 🙂

    In any case, bring the big Russian back Ken!

    PS – fun fact I noticed looking this stuff up: Connor McDavid scored 2.33P/60 on the PK (in 200+ minutes) from 16-17 through 18-19.

    Edit: I didn’t look at how many McDavid/Draisaitl or McDavid/Nuge minutes may overlap.

  16. barry.moore23 says:

    Is there a better song than Hallowed be Thy Name from ‘Live After Death’ ?? I know there is but what the hell it’s Tuesday Woot !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MtVM_6o2IE

    🙂

  17. Oilpower says:

    How about packaging jp with the first round pick and moving up in the draft? How many spots would jp be worth?

  18. Ben says:

    I’m guessing you could trade JP for something like a 2nd ad a 4th.

    So if you’re trading, say, the 20th, 46th and 107th pics you’d want to move up more than a couple of spots, you’d think.

    I believe there are tables out there slotting pick values for trade–maybe someone has a link?

  19. dustrock says:

    I think B+ is fair for Holland. The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

    The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long. It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

  20. RonnieB says:

    dustrock:
    I think B+ is fair for Holland.The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

    The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long.It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

    For what it’s worth, when Kassian got his extension Brian Burke said on TV that 30 other GMs would have signed that contract in a minute.
    Kassian brings a lot more to the table than just his pretty smile.
    Edit: Burke didn’t specify whether or not those GMs were still employed.

  21. who says:

    jp: Well hopefully Slepyshev has found that potential now. Definitely would love to see him get another shot.

    As for Caggiula, his biggest issue was what he gave up. I wouldn’t argue he was better than Slepyshev but it’s not clear either way to me. Maybe TMac deserves some flack but I don’t know…

    Slepyshev and Caggiula were on the Oilers together for 2 season (2016-16 and 2017-18). Slepyshev played 91 games (1019 5v5 minutes, basically zero special teams time). Caggiula played 127 games (1416 minutes 5v5, plus secondary PP and PK minutes). I’m forgetting how much injury impacted Slepyshev’s GP, but for sure he was a regular healthy scratch while Caggiula was only rarely. TMac is responsible for some of that for sure.

    Looking at their most common linemates, funny that Caggiula was Slepyshev’s most common while Slepyshev was Caggiula’s 2nd most common (after Kassian). They were terrible together scoring just 0.22P/60 in 273 minutes (1GF-5GA together).

    Looking at their centers:
    Caggiula (1.14P/60 overall 5v5) with:
    Draisaitl 254min 1.18P/60
    Letestu 234min 0.51
    McDavid 213min 2.25
    Strome 207min 0.87
    Nuge 158min 1.90

    Slepyshev (1.29P/60 overall) with:
    Letestu 185min 1.63P/60
    Draisaitl 170min 1.71
    Strome 150min 0.80
    Nuge 117min 2.06
    McDavid 113min 2.03

    So I guess Caggiula did get slightly more minutes (proportion of) with better centres, but it’s not a huge difference. And Slepyshev was better also with most of those Cs. So maybe TMac deserves more credit than I’m giving him 🙂

    In any case, bring the big Russian back Ken!

    PS – fun fact I noticed looking this stuff up: Connor McDavid scored 2.33P/60 on the PK (in 200+ minutes) from 16-17 through 18-19.

    Edit: I didn’t look at how many McDavid/Draisaitl or McDavid/Nuge minutes may overlap.

    I was just going by memory and eye test, but your numbers clearly show that Slepeshev was more productive. With less opportunity with high end centers.
    IF, he signs with Edmonton he certainly could compete for a top 6 winger spot.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers &
    @Condors
    forward Colby Cave has been placed in a medically-induced coma & admitted to the critical care unit at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto after suffering a brain bleed overnight. Please keep Colby & his wife Emily in your thoughts & prayers at this time.

    That’s just awful news.

  23. jp says:

    Jesus that’s horrible. Best wishes to the young man and his family.

  24. Cahoon says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I came here to see if anyone knew the details to the awful news. Does anyone know what caused the brain bleed?

  25. meanashell11 says:

    Holy cow….. That is not good. Pray for the best.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holy shit, as per Reid Wilkins:

    Shocking news from the #Oilers: Colby Cave has been placed in a medically induced coma and is in critical care at Sunnybrook Hospital after suffering a brain bleed overnight.

  27. jp says:

    Yes, Slepyshev’s results were better, and linemates a bit weaker. Hope he signs, he definitely has a chance to earn a top 6 job.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kevin Woodly’s weekly spot on the Gregor show is a must-listen in my opinion.

    Just listened to his spot from yesterday and they were talking about Smith and the UFA goalie market.

    Some interesting high level data from Woodley indicates that the Oilers are still at near the bottom of the league in rush chances: 27th in the league in giving up high danger chances off the rush and 26th in medium danger chances off the rush.

    To noone’s surprise, Smith is quite poor stopping these types of chances off the rush (can’t recall exactly where he placed) – Mikko was quite a bit better.

    Thomas Griess was a name that came up that has been quite good with off the rush chances (although he didn’t face the same number of volume).

  29. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers &
    @Condorsforward Colby Cave has been placed in a medically-induced coma & admitted to the critical care unit at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto after suffering a brain bleed overnight. Please keep Colby & his wife Emily in your thoughts & prayers at this time.

    That’s just awful news.

    This put my heart right in my throat.

    Jesus H F… Christ.

    Thoughts and prayers to Colby and fam.

  30. fries n gravy says:

    Stay safe everyone! Call your kin to check in & trade poorly told jokes.

  31. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Holy shit, as per Reid Wilkins:

    Shocking news from the #Oilers:Colby Cave has been placed in a medically induced coma and is in critical care at Sunnybrook Hospital after suffering a brain bleed overnight.

    does anybody know what caused it? terribly sad news …. praying for his recovery

  32. defmn says:

    dustrock:
    I think B+ is fair for Holland.The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

    The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long.It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

    To me it is not a ‘flat out failure’ at all. I think that as fans we tend to look at contracts as done deals for their entirety and that we tend to think of value rather than negotiation.

    So for me I think an argument can be made that Kassian should be valuable to the team for at least two more years. Three with luck.

    If they have to buy him out after two the costs are $666,667 the first year, $1,866,667, $966,667, $966,667 so the second year hurts while the other three are mildly annoying. Or they can try to trade him and lose the trade to some degree through retaining or whatever.

    As for the $3.2 mil cap hit it is too high. But pretty much every sUFA contract that is signed in this league is too high. The only exceptions that spring to mind are last minute signings just as training camp is starting. Some of those work out to be value deals but I am not sure that is a winning strategy. More like luck that drops in your lap.

    So let’s say that because Kassian had a competent agent Holland had to overpay by $700,000 per season. In order to pass on signing Kassian Holland has to think he can find a similar player in the UFA pile who will sign for ‘reasonable money’. But UFA signings are pretty much all overpays so the amount he might or might not save is probably closer to $200,000 on a player who might or might not mesh with the current roster.

    So Holland has to make a judgement call. Overpay for one or two years too many – knowing that a trade or buyout can cut that loss if necessary – or let him walk.

    Looking at his farm system he sees nobody who can play that role – a role this blog tends to undervalue because the intangibles are not quantifiable and this is a blog that values math over those intangibles – so he has to go UFA in order to fill it if he thinks it needs to be filled.

    Add in to this that Connor obviously likes to have Kassian on his wing or doesn’t mind having him there because otherwise he wouldn’t be there. That is not a factor without some significance.

    There are GM’s who don’t value what Kassian brings but there are many others who do. Playoff hockey is one of the reasons for that. I think we tend to forget that not every GM in the league has the same evaluation criteria for players.

    So to sum up my ramble.

    An overpay because every UFA signing is an overpay but a bird in hand is worth more than a bird in the bush which is where Holland would have been looking if he let him walk.

    He did not give him a NMC which means he can cut his costs if the bet goes bad. Not an ideal player where he is slotted. Over paid by about $700,000 for where he should be slotted but replacement costs and possibilities are unknown. Brings an element that tends to have playoff value.

    Not a total failure imo.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor with a couple tidbits from Holland:

    – its Holland’s understanding that, if the season isn’t completed, the Oilers will retain the 3rd round pick as Neal didn’t reach 21 goals

    – Holland has made an offer to Slepyshev

    I’m not sure if there is a Holland interview that can be listed to (Holland was on with Stauff yesterday and these quotes are not from there).

  34. Glovjuice says:

    barry.moore23:
    Is there a better song than Hallowed be Thy Name from ‘Live After Death’ ?? I know there is butwhat the hell it’s Tuesday Woot !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MtVM_6o2IE

    Certainly one of my favourite live albums of all time – that tape got a LOT of plays.

  35. jp says:

    Tuesday! Solid.

  36. wolf8888 says:

    Prayers for Colby and his family. Let’s hope they caught it in time to prevent long term damage

  37. wolf8888 says:

    agreed

  38. wolf8888 says:

    and well said 🙂

  39. pts2pndr says:

    Was it that you didn’t like the pick or you thought he should take a forward? Holland has had a long standing relationship with many people in the hockey know, in Sweden. My thinking is that he got the goods on Broberg from more than one of his trusted sources. Given the young mans size, skating and Holland’s people in Sweden I am of the belief that Broberg will be a special player. All that shines bright early is not necessarily gold.

  40. v4ance says:

    Online harrassment of K’Andre Miller shows why the Rangers and NHL can’t stick to sports

    To combat individual acts of racism, hockey must first acknowledge and address its own role in fostering institutional inequity.

    https://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2020/4/7/21207708/online-harrassment-of-kandre-miller-shows-why-the-rangers-and-nhl-cant-stick-to-sports-racism-hockey

    “Stick to sports” is a common notion that media members and athletes alike have heard ad nauseam. “Shut up and dribble,” was the version of the saying impressed upon LeBron James. For some, the motivation is an avoidance of politics they do not like. For others, the problem may not even be the beliefs themselves, but the desire for sports to be a sanctuary away from the “real world.” The idea is that sports and real-world societal issues should not meet.

    This premise is flawed. It presupposes that sports are separable in nature from Everything Else. That we can eliminate societal implications from the events happening on stage.

    More specifically, it misconstrues what is and is not political. It supposes that action is political but that the lack of action isn’t. That a challenge to the status quo is any more political in nature than the standing precedent. That opposition to barriers in place is any more a distraction than the barriers themselves. It confuses the internalization of already existing institutional politics as an absence of politics. A fish has no concept for the water in which it has existed its entire life.

    Believing that we can keep societal issues separate from sports requires a metaphorical lack of object permanence. A belief that, as long as political, economic, or social issues aren’t right in front of our faces, then they don’t exist in sports.

    ***

    Hyped 2018 first-round pick K’Andre Miller had also signed recently, and the team was hosting a Zoom video conference call with Miller where he could answer light questions about hockey and his interests, letting the fanbase see the bright personality of an exciting player for the future. And it was interactive.

    Then, one idiot ruined everything. Zoom has been under fire for its lack of protection against breaches. In this instance someone was able to disrupt the conversation between the Rangers and Miller. We’re not going to link to the video, but an anonymous user spammed the chat with racial slurs directed at Miller, who is black.

    ***

    A request to “stick to sports” is privileged thinking because it indicates having a choice in the matter. K’Andre Miller logged onto a computer last Friday to make his first public appearance as a professional hockey player and within literal minutes was confronted with racial slurs. Chris Watkins, a black hockey fan who has been following the NHL for over a decade, says that Miller will never be able to stick to sports because his mere existence as a black man within a sport dominated by white males is inherently political.

    ***
    In his book How to Be an Antiracist, Ibram X. Kendi asserts that the opposite of “racist” isn’t “not racist,” but rather “antiracist.” It is not enough to not endorse racist language and action, but we must also actively and vigorously fight to tear down the forces that serve racist ideologies and ambitions. Kendi insists we must “focus on power instead of people” and “changing policy instead of groups of people.”

    In applying Kendi’s thesis to this situation, it is not enough to condemn the gross, prejudiced comments towards Miller. Rather, we — fans, the New York Rangers, and the NHL — must assess power dynamics and policy, both official and unofficial, which not only allowed this person to spew hate, but to feel empowered in doing so.

    Kendi writes that “the only way to undo racism is to consistently identify and describe it — and then dismantle it.”

    ***

    Making changes for the better will require a broadening of what we all understand “sticking to sports” to actually mean. Sports are the result of an amalgamation of factors that go beyond what the scoreboard dictates. Sports are socioeconomics. Sports are multiculturalism. Sports are physical and mental health. Sports are racial, gender, and LGBT rights. Sports are politics. We can either embrace that and confront it head-on, doing our part to make sure the pendulum swings towards justice and equity, or we can complain about the inconvenience of it and withdraw, leaving the burden exclusively to marginalized people who inherently lack that option.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reports are that the offer to Slep is one year between $1MM and $1.4MM – that makes sense given his KHL salary.

  42. tileguy says:

    Too hot.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    I was on the fence all season with Holland. The Lucic deal was spectacular and the small signings were all very intelligent. Those small signings are a big reason the PK improved so much. But I was frustrated he did nothing to bring in a top six forward. However, trading to 2nds for AA at the deadline was very impressive and really changed my mind about his grade. He brought in a proven goal scorer with term and didn’t give up a first round pick. Now AA might end up failing in the top six, but at the time the deal was made I thought it was a master stroke. I won’t criticize him if AA doesn’t pan out because that kinda stuff can happen. At the time the deal was made, I thought it was incredible value. I’m not sure what grade to give him, but so far he’s the best GM I’ve seen here since Sather. The big question remaining for me is free agent signings. Can he resist the urge to spend too much on his own guys?

  44. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack: does anybody know what caused it?terribly sad news …. praying for his recovery

    Probably an aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation.

  45. wolf8888 says:

    Thanks OP. I hope he signs. If he has improved as much as it seems then he could be a good get. Even his numbers from 2 years ago weren’t bad. Love to see what he can bring

  46. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Wonder how the truncated season will affect the grey beards of the league, like Thornton and Marleau, Craig Anderson, The King and crucially, the Edmonton Mikes?

    Will the lack of wear and tear help them push back the cliff for another year? Or will age finally catch up with them as it inevitably does for all?

    Does the covid delay make it any less risky to resign the Mikes for one more season?

    I think I’d be willing to bring Green back for one more year but would look to upgrade in net. Plenty of UFA talent available to settle on Smith.

  47. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Which is shrinking weekly.

  48. pts2pndr says:

    He can lay both sides.

  49. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    That’s a lot of quotes from an article published today that also happens to be almost entirely political in nature. No?

  50. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    I think B+ is fair for Holland.The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

    The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long.It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

    I gave him a B- and had lots of feedback about that grade being too lenient. I’m honestly not sure what people expected. I nicked him for Chiasson’s signing and a couple of minor things (Kassian numbers on the mid-season contract) but overall I think he posted a strong year.

    https://theathletic.com/1695141/2020/03/24/final-oilers-report-cards-second-half-impact-defines-a-successful-season/

  51. Munny says:

    There are people who think he should’ve gotten less than a B grade?

  52. Lowetide says:

    Yes

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr:
    He can lay both sides.

    I’m not sure this came out like you intended it to!

  54. defmn says:

    Lowetide:
    Yes

    I’m thinking those people would be ones who have never been in charge and had to make judgement calls where none of the choices available are ever exactly what you want but you still have to do something. 😉

  55. yeraslob says:

    Chaisson was an overpay that didn’t have to happen IMO since he was coming off league minimum and a PTO, Credit to him for cashing in. 1.5M, at the most, on a one year term would have kept him here. And if not, we had speedsters that could have taken his spot as he was one of a handful of players with slow boots. Hindsight though.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    There are a lot of people on this site who would trade good assets to Toronto for one of Kapanen or Johnsson. I’ve seen Oilers fans suggest that trading Nurse for Kapanen one-for-one would be a good move for Edmonton. I get there’s an age difference / intangibles, etc, but basically these guys are paid to score goals, and they usually get to play alongside superstar linemates while attempting to do just that.

    5v5 goals, past 2 seasons:

    Kassian: 27 goals, 0.84 G/60, $3.2M x 4
    Kapanen: 24 goals, 0.75 G/60, $3.2M x 2
    Johnsson: 19 goals, 0.80 G/60, $3.4M x 3

    And yet, here we are talking about the Kassian contract as a “flat out failure” and a future buyout.

  57. oilsnc79 says:

    v4ance,

    Here here.. + 1000

  58. frjohnk says:

    barry.moore23:
    Is there a better song than Hallowed be Thy Name from ‘Live After Death’ ?? I know there is butwhat the hell it’s Tuesday Woot !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MtVM_6o2IE

    🙂

    Iron Maiden is my favourite band.

    I’m not sure if I’ve listened to that song more than “Rime of the Ancient Mariner”, but they are my two favourite live songs from Maiden.

    Metallica’s Master of Puppets live Seattle 89 is on par with those two songs for me

  59. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I doubt that who ever did was a hockey fan, just a horrible human who thinks that this is funny.

    But more likely it is because there are a lot of young people with no life experience or concept of consequence who have nothing better to do than do some really stupid shit.

    What are the odds that whoever is doing this is over the age of 18?

  60. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I am right there with you

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Definitely not opposed to Slepyshev coming back.Maybe he can unlock him better than McLellan.

    Thought Sleppy had a few games where he flattered to deceive and you thought he might be a guy that could play top 6 but most of the time he didn’t really move the needle for me.

    Yup – I would agree with that general assessment.

    Of course, he is now 2-3 years older, priming, coming off an offensively productive season and likely fully confidant.

    Given he’s a more mature player, I don’t imagine his skill-set (speed, good shot, size, responsible) couldn’t do well somewhere in the Oilers bottom six if not the middle six, and there is a reasonably chance he could help in the top 6.

    At the very least, I imagine he’s a serviceable bottom 6 player that could move around – the Gagner replacement for cheaper and with some upside (and more built for the current game).

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers tweeted a recent update from Colby’s wife (from IG) – noting he’s in surgery fighting for his life.

    Geez….

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1247644780370132992

  63. hungoverman says:

    Hey LT. I was listening to your show as the news broke about Colby Cave. Thank you for being so compassionate and caring when you were reading it. That is the reason I listen every day!!!
    PS…please write a book.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Ken gets an B+ for his work so far. He didn’t have much wiggle room, but seemed to get the most out of the roster.

    Tippett turned out to be the right guy behind the bench.
    Lucic trade was good before the ink was dry.

    Lots of lower end bets on the roster, which created competition and ultimately gave the team a better (not good) supporting cast.

    Mike Smith signing worked out well.

    Didn’t like the Broberg pick. But we don’t know what we don’t know. If Broberg turns into an everyday NHL defenseman for a decade, that is a win.

    Also, like the adds at the deadline.

    Great work Ken. Keep it up.

    As an outsider, its tough to “know” how much of an effect a coach and his staff has on the team but it really does seem that Coach T. did a fantastic job and was an important factor in team success – maybe the most important factor.

    Huge credit to Holland as he seems to have knocked that one out of the park.

    —————

    Holland stated early what he wanted to do in the off-season – acquire more skill and speed for the bottom six and help the PK – he did exactly what he said he was going to do.

    The speed and NHL ability of the bottom 6 and the huge uptick in the PK were massive for the season

    The bottom six bets worked out well – sure Granlund and Jurco didn’t workout but they were buried for a combined hit of a couple hundred grand. Definitely off-set by the pay-off on the Archie and Sheahan bets.

    —————

    On the negatives:

    – I saw (see) no reason for the second year on Chiasson – it Chiassor wouldn’t sign without it, I think Holland should have walked. The contract is not the end of the world, its just a couple of million for next year and he does produce on the PP but, at the end of the day, its simply tough to fit him in to the lineup

    – the Kassian extension – the timing more than anything didn’t make a ton of sense and, at the end of the day, the best case scenario is that he’s worth $3.2M a year and year over year. There is essentially no chance he’ll out-perform the contract and its reasonable that he’ll under-perform. The team is better with Kass but the contract is “meh” at best.

    ———–

    Now, this next off-season’s key’s assuming the cap will be essentially what it was this past year (which makes sense):

    – dispose of Rusty either clean (or minimal retainment) or for a replacement player that is also overpaid for only 1 year but fills a position of need

    – one material external acquisition (3C) whihc, of course, is contingent on the Rusty disposition

    – sign Griess or trade for DeSmith or something along those lines – don’t break the bank on the 1B but don’t re-sign Mike Smith.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Was it that you didn’t like the pick or you thought he should take a forward? Holland has had a long standing relationship with many people in the hockey know, in Sweden. My thinking is that he got the goods on Broberg from more than one of his trusted sources. Given the young mans size, skating and Holland’s people in Sweden I am of the belief that Broberg will be a special player. All that shines bright early is not necessarily gold.

    Yup, I have to agree with this.

    I’ve got to admit, in the second after the pick, I was a bit disappointed but, at the end of the day, Holland was in the know that (1) his team needed/needs top 6 wingers, (2) the defence prospect pipeline is vastly superior to the forward prospect pipeline and (3) the fans were looking for a scoring forward.

    He knew all of the above and still took a d-man, and a d-man the he knew would be at last 2-3 development years away from the NHL.

    Whether Broberg turns out to be BPA we won’t know for years and years but I’m confidant that Holland thought he was BPA and I admire the man for making the pick knowing it was his first major move and the fan-base would generally not like it.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I agree with this characterization. He showed flashes but was completely underwhelming to my eye 99% of the time. Still, he was a competent NHL player even last time we saw him with the Oilers.

    He seems to have taken real strides with his game since then (that’s a real nice KHL season he just had). I’d be excited to give him another chance, worst case he’s a Granlund/Cave/Russell type depth option. I think 50/50 he’s more than that, probably just a solid 3rd liner but possibly more. Definitely a good bet for ~$1M if he’s interested IMO.

    I agree with most of this.

    He was a serviceable NHL player 2-3 years ago when he left and, from accounts, his game has matured. He’s now starting his prime years and has offensive confidence.

    I don’t agree with the bottom though – I think, at the very least, he’s a VERY serviceable bottom six guy along the lines of Archie/Sheahan (above the Russell/Cave level – his skating and skill put him above those two as a floor, in my opinion).

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    If the season is cancelled, I wonder if any consideration is given to teams like the Oilers who gave up picks to acquire players.

    Theoretically those picks should generate more income in the form of playoff revenue. If I’m an owner I’m asking for some compensatory picks in the draft.

    Thankfully the main picks the Oilers gave up were for a player under control (Athanasiou). Think about a team like Arizona who are getting completely burned by this.

    I think keeping the 3rd rounder in this draft more than makes up for the 5th round and 4th rounder as payment on Green and Ennis.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    It’ll be fascinating to see what they do with contract expiration dates. I’m assuming the PA can just agree to some sort of blanket adjustment to all 19/20 SPCs on behalf of the players?

    But the timing might throw out normal alignments around the draft and player movement leading up to free agency.

    And for teams like Arizona, I wonder if there will still be a way to recoup a little value on a Taylor Hall by giving teams exclusive negation rights for a few days…

    Wacky times!

    Are you speaking about extending current contracts that expire at the end of June if they do end up playing hockey during the summer?

    Yes, the NHLPA/League can certainly agree to extend those (along with insurance, etc.) but that are some related matters that aren’t so easy.

    For example, “foreign players” are on what are called P-1 visas and they generally expire at the time an existing contract expires (in fact, I think in the US you can’t even apply for the visa unless a contract offer is in place and there requirements are firm and full).

    Anyways, the league agreeing to extend a contract does not in itself extend the visa – that’s obviously a seperate matter to be approved by government.

    For the Oilers, I assume the Haas is on one of these visas and I’m not sure he’d be able to play in July/August.

    I’m not sure about Nygard – he has an extension in place but I wouldn’t be so sure his P-1 extension application has gone through.

    Caveat: This “knowledge” came from one guest on an Oilers podcast a few weeks ago (can’t remember who it was or what show he was on: LT, ON, Gregor) and some follow up “internet research”.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    yeraslob:
    Yep, all aboard for Slepy to come back.Any love for Haas?I keep remembering his penalty shot goal and he definitely brings speed.

    The Oilers have two confirmed centers going in to next season: McDavid and Drai.

    The Oilers need a 3C and a 4C.

    Riley Sheahan played 3C for most of the year but I think most would agree that he is a 4C and, to me, 3C is the one position to upgrade externally (materially).

    I think 4C is a “battle” between Khaira, Haas and Sheahan. Two of those 3 will be on the team, in my opinion (one as 4C and one as the depth 4C/13th forward, etc.).

    Khaira is signed and on the team and I think Holland re-signs one of Haas and Sheahan. I lean towards Riley for a one year term and less than what Archie re-signed for.

  70. jp says:

    Sure, that’s probably true.

  71. yeraslob says:

    Perhaps Haas could be a winger? His speed is noticeable.

  72. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Colby is out of surgery, as of 35 minutes ago.

    Colloid cyst was removed, which was putting pressure on his brain.

  73. Munny says:

    Agreed.

  74. Munny says:

    Thank you for this.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    Oilers PR with an update on @cavemn12

    “Edmonton Oilers forward Colby Cave is now out of emergency surgery at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto where doctors removed a colloid cyst that was causing pressure on his brain. Colby remains in a medically induced coma.”

  76. Melvis says:

    frjohnk: Iron Maiden is my favourite band.

    I’m not sure if I’ve listened to that song more than“Rime of the Ancient Mariner”, but they are my two favourite live songs from Maiden.

    Metallica’s Master of Puppets live Seattle 89 is on par with those two songs for me

    Seeing as I was baptized in your house – and haven’t been back since – I might have to come over one of these days and remonstrate with you;-)

    ” My dear friends…I lieu of a sermon today…and for your listening pleasure, let me share my favorite band with you…Iron Maiden. Choir…take it away!

  77. jp says:

    I like Broberg too, great tools. And Holland would have connections close to the player.

    My guess is Zegras is ~Eberle and Broberg is ~Nurse. I’ll take Broberg in that scenario.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    yeraslob:
    Perhaps Haas could be a winger?His speed is noticeable.

    For sure – I think that one of Sheahan or Haas will be brought back in addition to Khaira and we know that Tip liked Khaira at center for those couple of weeks. One of the two will be a winger or scratch (on the assumption that a legit 3C is acquired – or Marody pops).

    Haas is “faster” but he doesn’t PK and he hasn’t shown to be able to “handle the grind” of being an every day NHL player.

    At this point, I take Sheahan over Haas – he’s proven.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:

    Slepyshev and Caggiula were on the Oilers together for 2 season (2016-16 and 2017-18). Slepyshev played 91 games (1019 5v5 minutes, basically zero special teams time). Caggiula played 127 games (1416 minutes 5v5, plus secondary PP and PK minutes). I’m forgetting how much injury impacted Slepyshev’s GP, but for sure he was a regular healthy scratch while Caggiula was only rarely. TMac is responsible for some of that for sure.

    Solid post and I apologize for only responding to one (minor) point.

    If I recall correctly (and I may not), Slepy had a successful playoffs in 2017, playing much of the ANA series with Drai (and they outscored their possession metrics).

    The fanbase was generally excited for him to be a solid part of the team in 2017/18 either on the 2nd line or middle 6 but he got hurt early and was out for a while and, well, never really got traction after that point.

    I would say that one injury cratered his first NHL attempt.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    I think B+ is fair for Holland.The Mike Smith signing was a pretty big gamble which paid off, but now we’ll see if he’s smart enough not to re-sign Smith for a further contract.

    The only flat-out failure to me is signing Kassian for too much and too long.It’s not going to ruin the team, but there was just no call for it, particularly for the term.

    I agree – a key to the off-season is to avoid re-signing Mike Smith.

    I think there are better/more consistent options out there for the price point Smith would in at again.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: For what it’s worth,when Kassian got his extension Brian Burke said on TV that 30 other GMs would have signed that contract in a minute.
    Kassian brings a lot more to the table than just his pretty smile.
    Edit: Burke didn’t specify whether or not those GMs were still employed.

    I actually like Brian Burke as an analyst and enjoy his spots with Stauff – he does know the game from various angles.

    At the same time, I took that comment with a bit of a grain of salt – all it really means is that Burke liked the contract.

    My main issue with the contract is there is no real upside and there is downside.

    In my opinion, best case scenario is that he’s value for $3.2M in any given year. I don’t think there is much chance that his play in any year will exceed that value. I don’t think the chances are great that he provides $3.2M of value 4 years in a row.

    It seems highly likely that he underperforms the contract over its term and almost impossible that he over-performs it.

    Don’t get me wrong, the team is better with Kass than without and Holland was in a bit of a tough spot on this one.

    I think Holland did panic a bit which seems a bit odd for him – I think he wanted to get it done by the deadline so that there was no argument about “selling Kass”.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is the Holland media avai – just starting to listen now (we already know the highlights re: Berglund, Slepy, etc):

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–holland-040720/t-277437406/c-5371909

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    barry.moore23:
    Is there a better song than Hallowed be Thy Name from ‘Live After Death’ ?? I know there is butwhat the hell it’s Tuesday Woot !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MtVM_6o2IE

    🙂

    One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

  84. defmn says:

    Thank you. Hoping for the best for him.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: does anybody know what caused it?terribly sad news …. praying for his recovery

    I’m sure its been cited in the comments but I haven’t had a chance to look through – it was a cyst.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

    I was at the Power Slave tour when it hit Edmonton.

    On Jan 31st I tweeted this:

    Maskguy55
    @Woodguy55
    ·
    Jan 31
    First Concert – Helix/Kick Axe
    Last Concert – Ghost
    Best Concert – Iron Madien (Powerslave Tour)
    Worst Concert – Helix/Headpins
    Loudest Concert – AC/DC
    Seen the Most – 54-40
    Most Surprising – Myles Kennedy w/ Slash
    Next Concert – TBA
    Wish I Could’ve Seen – Ray Charles

    LInk: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1223336972816547841

    Owned the LIve After Death cassette.

    Like most of everyone’s most played cassettes it lost pretty much all the writing on it and you recognized your tapes by unique markers of various origins on it.

    Violent Femmes eponymous debut album, Judas Priest Screaming For Vengeance, U2 War, The Dead Milkman Big Lizard in my Backyard, Anthrax Fist Full of Metal.

    None of them had factory printing on them.

    Good times.

    Edit: Metallica Ride The Lightning.

    First heard of them on Mind Compression. A program on CJSR dedicated to metal.

    A friend of mine I knew since I was 14 ended up hosting the same program years later. His name was John Kyle but was known as Metal John on CJSR.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gregor with a couple tidbits from Holland:

    – its Holland’s understanding that, if the season isn’t completed, the Oilers will retain the 3rd round pick as Neal didn’t reach 21 goals

    – Holland has made an offer to Slepyshev

    I’m not sure if there is a Holland interview that can be listed to (Holland was on with Stauff yesterday and these quotes are not from there).

    Listening to the verbal now, Holland’s “understanding” that the pick would not transfer is not based on anything other than a strict reading of the condition. That is, there hasn’t been any guidance/determination from the league on these types of conditional provisions.

  88. geowal says:

    Brogan Rafferty must be coordinating the efforts!

    Kidding, great news, hopefully Alberta follows suit

  89. €√¥£€^$ says:

    If there is a CBO I target Jeff Carter as 3C 2 x $1.8 million (assuming there are 2 CBO’s per team and he and Quick are bought out; how about Quick as a back-up, lol) and then Alan Quine as 4C. He hasn’t shown well in a limited number of FO’s, but is an excellent PKer with good speed and good results in his recent limited NHL call-ups and would be very cheap.

    I don’t watch Flames games, but I listen to The Fan 960 most mornings and I always hear every commentator, including their Play by Play man (who seems to give very honest assessments of players, IMO) rave about the guy, they all seem to believe he is the best 4C in the current org. He was 47.8% on the dot in 61 games with NYI 3 seasons ago. Not only is he an upgrade on Haas, at worst he is a high-level AHL vet.

    Also, he was a Holland draft pick in 2011 (he didn’t sign with Detroit and was drafted by NJ in 2013), and a top, consistent scorer in Stockton the last 2 years.

    Slepy – Connor – Kassian
    Nuge – Drai – Yammo
    AA – Carter – Chiasson (or JP)
    Nygard – Quine – Archibald

    xxx – xxx

  90. jp says:

    I do recall a lot of optimism for Slepyshev (and Draisaitl) after the playoff run (hell, the whole team).

    They really didn’t play much together, or have particular success though. I checked, they played 37:13 minutes together 5v5 (over the whole playoff season). Goals were 3F-3A and they got a shade under 30% of the shots.

    Overall Draisaitl had a nice playoffs, leading the team scoring 13-6-10-16 and running his own line with some success. He still played a large majority of his 5v5 minutes with McDavid (116) and Maroon (92) though vs only 37 min with Slepyshev.

    In those 37 min with Slepyshev, Draisaitl did score 3-1-4 (6.45P/60) but Slepyshev didn’t get a single point.

    Slepyshev scored 12-3-0-3 in those playoffs, earning a regular lineup spot. I do agree the expectation coming into 2017 was that he’d cement his lineup spot, and that the injury may have been very important in that not happening.

    Maybe the Oilers need a Slepyshev to get back into the playoffs finally 🙂

  91. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Wonder how the truncated season will affect the grey beards of the league, like Thornton and Marleau, Craig Anderson, The King and crucially, the Edmonton Mikes?

    You mean 34 year old Mike Green? The 58th oldest player in the league? Holland shouldn’t be giving him a 4 year deal or anything, but contrary to what you might have heard he’s not ancient.

  92. Optimism is like heroin says:

    Lowetide,

    With both Chia and Kass I am all good with those contracts. Zack compliments McD and another scoring winger for a well balanced line. For Chia I think it’s important to look at his strengths. 12goals an hour on the pp i believe. despite the lower stat line the PP hums along and has better result than with Neal, who also specializes in the same areas.

    3.2 is ok for a good complimentary winger in the top 6
    2 is also ok for a 4th line player who plays pp min to good effect

  93. Lowetide says:

    RIP John Prine.

  94. Ben says:

    Lowetide:
    RIP John Prine.

    Ouch. Ow. Ugh. What a writer.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    Ben: Ouch. Ow. Ugh. What a writer.

    Perhaps the best short story writer of the century. Every song a classic.

  96. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Bettman finally alluding to unlikelihood of hockey this season: 8 players known to have Covid-19

    – Just haven’t seen a path for NHL hockey to finish season since this started

    – Its funny that the NHL has “asked players to self-quarantine untill April 15th”. I’m guessing they will extend this. Seeing as its the law and stuff like public health

  97. €√¥£€^$ says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There are a lot of people on this site who would trade good assets to Toronto for one of Kapanen or Johnsson. I’ve seen Oilers fans suggest that trading Nurse for Kapanen one-for-one would be a good move for Edmonton. I get there’s an age difference / intangibles, etc, but basically these guys are paid to score goals, and they usually get to play alongside superstar linemates while attempting to do just that.

    5v5 goals, past 2 seasons:

    Kassian: 27 goals, 0.84 G/60, $3.2M x 4
    Kapanen: 24 goals, 0.75 G/60, $3.2M x 2
    Johnsson: 19 goals, 0.80 G/60, $3.4M x 3

    And yet, here we are talking about the Kassian contract as a “flat out failure” and a future buyout.

    My concern with Kassian is that he is incredibly streaky. I recall the start of last season and even in the preseason his game was donkey snot. His play well was below that of JP, Yamamoto and Rattie, and it wasn’t even close. If his game was at anywhere near an NHL level in the pre-season, Chiasson likely would not have been signed to a contract off his PTO. Kassian honestly looked like an ECHL bench warmer for close to 4 months.

    I also had noticed that Zack hasn’t done very much around the time he signed his contract/Tkachuk bullshit, etc, so I wanted to take a very superficial look at his results from the past 2 seasons.

    2018: Oct 8 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 7 PIM, 5 shots 0.13 Pt/game, 0.63 shot/game 2.0 Shot%

    Nov 14 – 0 – 0 – 39 – 16 – 0.00 – 1.14 – 0.0%

    Dec 14 – 1 – 1 – 28 – 19 – 0.14 – 1.36 – 5.0%

    2019: 43 – 13 – 9 – 26 – 71 – 0.61 – 1.65 – 18.3%

    Oct 14 – 3 – 6 – 8 – 17 – 0.64 – 1.21 – 17.7%

    Nov 14 – 6 – 4 – 21 – 30 – 0.71 – 2.14 – 20.0%

    Dec 11 – 4 – 4 – 19 – 21 – 0.73 – 1.91 – 19.1%

    2020: 20 – 2 – 5 – 21 – 31 – 0.35 – 1.55 – 6.5%

    Pre & Post: 50 – 4 – 6 – 95 – 71 – 0.20 – 1.42 – 5.6%

    2019 Only: 82 – 26 – 23 – 74 – 139 – 0.72 – 1.70 – 18.7%

    In conclusion, I think 2019 (the calendar year only) will likely be the pinnacle of Zack Kassian’s NHL career. He of course had his personal challenges, which definitely negatively impacted his early career, but I don’t that the Oilers will ever realize the value of this contract, unless they are able deal it away for good value fairly quickly..

    Note that his shooting percentage prior to the 2018-19 season was 10.7%, his scoring rate 0.13 ppg and his shot rate was 1.26 shots per game.

  98. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    Certainly not ancient.

    But he’s nearing the cliff for non-elite players. At last viewing, Mike Green is not an elite player.

    I’d like to have him around for the upcoming year, on a fair contract — something in the 1 year ~$2M range. But I’m not trading Larsson just because he’s an option. Benning, maybe, depending on return.

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One of the best songs of all time and one of the best recordings of it.

    Phhhhtttt….
    https://youtu.be/-mJt_T0N0mQ

  100. teddyturnbuckle says:

    “ Hey, it ain’t such a long drop don’t stammer don’t stutter
    From the diamonds in the sidewalk to the dirt in the gutter
    And you carry those bruises
    To remind you wherever you go.”

    -John Prine

    Favourite lyrics from Prine. RIP This guy wrote lyrics for everybody.

  101. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    That’s completely fair, and sorry for the strong reply. I agree that replacing Larsson with Green at 2RD would be a bad decision. And moving Benning would be more about what Tippett thinks of Benning than Green (which isn’t much it seems).

    I’d be very happy with Green as 3RD for 1 X $2M. My guess is that Holland gives him 2 X $2.5M, pending the cap collapsing (not that I think that’s a good idea, just a prediction).

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    In this precarious time, please remember that our elders are fighting for their lives and are facing unimaginable fear and many are forced to do it alone. Please hear them.

    https://youtu.be/OVhA01J0Zsg

  103. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

    Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much. At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh. One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry. He’s not the player he once was for WSH. We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

  104. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: – the Kassian extension – the timing more than anything didn’t make a ton of sense and, at the end of the day, the best case scenario is that he’s worth $3.2M a year and year over year. There is essentially no chance he’ll out-perform the contract and its reasonable that he’ll under-perform. The team is better with Kass but the contract is “meh” at best.

    I agree with most of what you’re saying but not this.

    I absolutely think Kassian could out-perform his contract. It’s not particularly likely, so I agree the 4 year deal isn’t a good ‘bet’, but it’s not that unlikely either IMO.

    A 50 point forward would be expected to earn around $5.5M, a 40 point forward about $4.5M and a 30 point forward about $3.0M.

    (This is based on the league ranks of 50, 40 and 30 point scorers among all forwards from 18-19 [cause of less games this year] and the corresponding salary at that rank among NHL forwards this year. Example: Filip Forsberg ranked 98th in the NHL in 18-19 with 50 points. The 98th ranked cap hit among forwards this year was Jason Zucker at $5.5M)

    So… if Kassian sticks in the top 6 for much of the remainder of his contract and scores 40 points per season he’ll be a significant value contract (relative to the expected ~$4.5M that one would pay a 40 point player).

    He only needs to average 30-odd points per season to be fair value for the deal. That’s not including any intangibles he brings, which I’m giving him a little credit for.

    I still don’t think he’s a great bet to bring value for the deal, but it’s not a terribly high bar to clear. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up being value either.

  105. Ryan says:

    jp,

    I miss this place. Fuck, I miss hockey.

    I really miss the time in our collective lives where our biggest worry was over clean dispositions of bad Oiler contracts.

    Hope you’re doing well JP. Since you’re living in Massachusetts, I’m going to call you Harvard from now on. 🙂

    With every post you write, I read it with the “where do you park your car” accent.

    Hope all of our Lowetidians in Merica are safe.

    Anyone heard from Leadfarmer?

    Jeebus, social safety nets serve a purpose at times.

    Six million Americans filled for unemployment.

    For Canadian folks, unemployment insurance doesn’t mean what you think it means in the States.

    Tops off at something like 500 bucks for three months or so.

    Here’s a food bank in Pittsburgh the other day.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixq5kCJYfPw

    Hope everyone is well.

  106. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

    Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much.At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh.One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry.He’s not the player he once was for WSH.We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

    Holland shouldn’t break the bank for Green but I also believe he may have some left in the tank. I think he might have some surprising upside and I’m a little intrigued honestly. (I acknowledge he may also head off the cliff soon, or already have).

    I’ve posted this before, but over the 3 seasons before the current one Green was 16th in the NHL in 5v5 P/60 for defensemen. In 18-19 he was 13th in the league at 1.36 P/60. He’d have placed 4th among all Oilers last season (behind Nuge and ahead of Kassian).

    He’s brought high end even strength offense in the not so distant past. I’d love to see next season start with a Bear-Larsson-Green-Bouchard depth chart.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: You mean 34 year old Mike Green? The 58th oldest player in the league? Holland shouldn’t be giving him a 4 year deal or anything, but contrary to what you might have heard he’s not ancient.

    Nope, he’s not ancient and he’s a few months clear of his next contract being a “35 plus contract” but, at the same time, his play has dropped off severely over the last few years.

    To me, he’ll likely be too expensive to be a 3RD (in replacement of Benning say) but not good enough to be an every day 2RD (in replacement of Larsson say).

    Just doesn’t seem like the right fit for a re-sign to me but I think Holland likes him and, given deployment in the 2 games he played, Coach T. might think he’s got some 2nd pairing in him….

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    Certainly not ancient.

    But he’s nearing the cliff for non-elite players.At last viewing, Mike Green is not an elite player.

    I’d like to have him around for the upcoming year, on a fair contract — something in the 1 year ~$2M range.But I’m not trading Larsson just because he’s an option.Benning, maybe, depending on return.

    I would agree with this for sure.

    He can play 3RD for me (although I’d almost prefer the more physical and defensively responsible Benning) for not 2RD with any regularity.

  109. jp says:

    Ha, maybe MIT instead?

    Thanks though. And I haven’t been here long enough to pick up the accent (I don’t think).

    Yeah, normal life is sorely missed. And not having hockey (I naively thought it might continue while we stayed home) is a kick in the junk on top of the rest.

    My family and I are fine. I’m being paid to stay home and (mostly) not work so I can’t complain considering what a lot of others are facing. You’re right this is one of the times that a decent safety net comes in handy.

    It sounds from a couple of people I know working in hospitals here that the health care system is feeling strain but not overwhelmed, at least yet. It seems things in NYC are on a completely different level unfortunately.

    Leadfarmer posted earlier in this thread, a little time to read and post is a good sign for sure.

    All the best to you and everyone else out there as well.

  110. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That’s the same depth chart I have an eye towards starting next season with as well.

    Green would be a good mentor for the younguns like Jones, Bear and Bouchard. Hell, even the ‘vets’ like Klef and Nurse could learn from Green I’m sure. He has a rep as a good leader and having someone like to learn from in practice can’t hurt.

  111. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    In a way I’d rather keep Matty. He’s a good soldier. He’s more than covered his (Bruins) draft bet, and was one of the nice adds by Pete. Any time a local kid finds success with the Oil it’s a great story.

    But, if he and Green are likely to be not much more than 3RD except for a shift/game or few at a time, then the player to move on from is the one who would return more in trade. Since Green isn’t signed, that’s obviously Benning, but assuming equal contracts I think Benning would return more. He’s younger, and his stats playing top-4 could entice a GM.

    If Benning gets us a roster player that adds balance, or a decently high pick, I’d move him along to keep the pipeline flowing. Roll with Green until Bouchard takes his spot.

  112. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909™ happily predicts the Holland/Tippett combination winning the Stanley Cup within the next 5 seasons, guaranteed. Possibly more than once is highly probable also.

    They check every conceivable box for success; Holland’s Detroit model plus Tippett’s yet to win the big one ambition. Add McDraisaitl and instantly there is nothing in the way, almost.

  113. meanashell11 says:

    Any news on Colby Cave? I have looked around but no updates I can see?

  114. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Nothing yet, might be a few days until we learn anything beyond he is stable and recovering. The cyst was in the middle of his brain, basically, so until he is conscious, they likely won’t know much regarding the impact of the surgery.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    In a way I’d rather keep Matty.He’s a good soldier.He’s more than covered his (Bruins) draft bet, and was one of the nice adds by Pete.Any time a local kid finds success with the Oil it’s a great story.

    But, if he and Green are likely to be not much more than 3RD except for a shift/game or few at a time, then the player to move on from is the one who would return more in trade.Since Green isn’t signed, that’s obviously Benning, but assuming equal contracts I think Benning would return more.He’s younger, and his stats playing top-4 could entice a GM.

    If Benning gets us a roster player that adds balance, or a decently high pick, I’d move him along to keep the pipeline flowing.Roll with Green until Bouchard takes his spot.

    Fair enough and i have thought the same – Benning would return an asset in a trade and Green is a free signing.

    With that said, I think Green would likely come in more expensive and Benning is younger with more runway in his career……

  116. meanashell11 says:

    ugh….

    I saw a quote the other day and I think of it a lot lately.

    Dear 2020,
    Wrong hole.

    Sincerely, Everybody.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: With that said, I think Green would likely come in more expensive and Benning is younger with more runway in his career……

    Holland has engaged Green to mentor the young defence; seeing how he’s a former all star how you manage to compare him to the perpetual tweener Benning has got to be a miracle of some mental function that I do not want to have lol

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    €√¥£€^$: My concern with Kassian is that he is incredibly streaky.I recall the start of last season and even in the preseason his game was donkey snot.His play well was below that of JP, Yamamoto and Rattie, and it wasn’t even close.If his game was at anywhere near an NHL level in the pre-season, Chiasson likely would not have been signed to a contract off his PTO. Kassian honestly looked like an ECHL bench warmer for close to 4 months.

    I also had noticed that Zack hasn’t done very much around the time he signed his contract/Tkachuk bullshit, etc, so I wanted to take a very superficial look at his results from the past 2 seasons.

    2018:Oct 8 games, 1 goal,0 assists, 7 PIM,5 shots 0.13 Pt/game, 0.63 shot/game 2.0 Shot%

    Nov 14 – 0–0 –39–16 –0.00 – 1.14 –0.0%

    Dec 14–1–1– 28– 19 –0.14 – 1.36 – 5.0%

    2019:43–13 – 9 –26 – 71–0.61 – 1.65– 18.3%

    Oct 14 – 3 – 6–8 –17–0.64 – 1.21–17.7%

    Nov 14– 6 – 4–21 – 30–0.71 – 2.14 –20.0%

    Dec 11 –4 – 4 – 19–21 – 0.73–1.91 –19.1%

    2020:20 –2 –5 – 21– 31–0.35–1.55–6.5%

    Pre & Post: 50 – 4 –6 – 95 –71–0.20–1.42 – 5.6%

    2019 Only: 82–26– 23 –74 – 139–0.72 – 1.70 – 18.7%

    In conclusion, I think 2019 (the calendar year only) will likely be the pinnacle of Zack Kassian’s NHL career.He of course had his personal challenges, which definitely negatively impacted his early career, but I don’t that the Oilers will ever realize the value of this contract, unless they are able deal it away for good value fairly quickly..

    Note that his shooting percentage prior to the 2018-19 season was 10.7%, his scoring rate 0.13 ppg and his shot rate was 1.26 shots per game.

    2019 calendar is basically the sum total of Kassian’s time with McDavid. Check out who his linemates were the rest of the time for some additional context… and while you’re at it, check out who Kapanen and Johnsson get to play with on a nightly basis.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    Not to worry, I didn’t take your reply as a negative at all.

    Agree that anything >1 year and >$2M is too much.At his age, unless he’s an elite player, the cliff is nigh.One year deals reduce the risk to the team and keep the player hungry.He’s not the player he once was for WSH.We could do worse than letting him walk if his ask is too high, keep Benning and find a 7/8D off the farm, waiver wire or as a late UFA signing.

    11 points and -34 in 50 games this year… we’re halfway down the cliff already.

  120. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: 11 points and -34 in 50 games this year… we’re halfway down the cliff already.

    Or not. His possession metrics have remained fine relative to team.

    Many an athlete has been pronounced finished prematurely. No one here is talking about making him a top 4D or anything.

  121. €√¥£€^$ says:

    ArmchairGM,

    So why do you think he stopped producing with McDavid in 2020, is it because 97’s injury? Or because he no longer played with the top point producers in the NHL?

  122. barry.moore23 says:

    Harpers Hair: Phhhhtttt….
    https://youtu.be/-mJt_T0N0mQ

    I’m certain you accidentally pasted one of your old girlfriend’s favorite songs ? and that’s OK we still love you.

    🙂

  123. NDOilersfan says:

    barry.moore23,

    Amazing song from an amazing band. My #1 band of all time.

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