Lake Marie

So John Prine passed away and we found out about it yesterday. First time I ever heard of him was the day I bought his debut album at a second-hand store. Great luck, finding brilliance in a bargain bin. I will tell you the songs spoke to me the minute the vinyl saw the needle, and have been part of my life every day since. Just give me one thing that I can hold on to, to believe in this living is just a hard way to go.

I learned about Muhlenberg County and found songs of desperation and melancholy that matched my own. In a way, I went about collecting life experiences and then those life moments found a home between the grooves. Angel from Montgomery. Six O’Clock News. Paradise. Lake Marie. John Prine made this misfit feel like he belonged somewhere worthwhile.

People use words like ‘connect’ and ‘chemistry’ but John Prine’s music was more than those things. The best songwriters pull emotion out of the air, capture them in words and rhyme. The listener comes along later to match their experience to the song that speaks to them.

John Prine spoke to me, he was a gift from above. I hope he’s in heaven today with Wanda and James Lewis, with Elizabeth and Marie and the girl in the Appalachian Greyhound station. Stranger in the closet, lock the diary. The past is running faster, singing harmony.

The cuckoo clock has died of shock, and the windows feel no pane. The air’s as still as the throttle on a funeral train. RIP John Prine.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

We’ve talked about Slepyshev a lot recently, good to see the club is progressing and perhaps we’ll see an announcement in the coming days. Where does he fit? If he plays RW, I think the depth chart might be Kassian-Yamamoto-Slepyshev-Archibald, meaning Alex Chiasson is on the outside. Slepyshev over Chiasson adds speed and a shooter, Chiasson’s size, rugged play and skill have value but are duplicated elsewhere (Kassian).

If he plays LW, Athanasiou-Nuge-Nygard-Slepyshev might be the depth chart, meaning Jujhar Khaira and James Neal are down the line. I like the idea of bringing back players who didn’t get a full lash at an NHL job (Teemu Hartikainen photo via Rob Ferguson).

I like Slepyshev, per 82 NHL games he scored 8-11-19 and that’s in 11:12 a night. He also scored three even-strength goals during the 2017 playoffs, tied for second on the Oilers.

This is good news for draft aficionados. Edmonton would draft No. 20, No. 82, No. 144, No. 175 and No. 206 based on winning percentage. I think we’ll see at least one pick added.

COLBY CAVE

What a terrible turn for a gifted athlete and suddenly none of this sports stuff matters at all. Fans everywhere praying for he and his family and good news. The suddenness of the event (as I understand it) reminded me of Normand Léveillé and his shortened career. Please get better Colby Cave, we’re all worried about you. Godspeed.

This is my list, I’ll have another one up late April, here is the March edition. There are some outstanding players on this list.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have much to discuss. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss Ken Holland’s avail (Slepyshev, draft pick from Neal trade, negotiating with Filip Berglund and Markus Niemelainen) and Colby Cave’s situation. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk UFC Island and undervalued MLB pitchers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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90 Responses to "Lake Marie"

  1. Ben says:

    I guess that love is like a Christmas card
    You decorate a tree, you throw it in the yard
    It decays and dies and the snowmen melt
    Well, I once knew love, I knew how love felt

  2. McNuge93 says:

    So is it fair to say Barabanov and Slepyshev are pretty comparable? Sleppy with the edge because of North American experience? Certainly would be a nice depth add to the Oilers.

  3. ArmchairGM says:

    “This is good news for draft aficionados. Edmonton would draft No. 20, No. 82, No. 144, No. 175 and No. 206 based on winning percentage. I think we’ll see at least one pick added.”

    Something interesting I’ve been seeing on capfriendly is JP and Benning to Ottawa for their 2nd (#33) and one of their later 2nds (NYI #52 or DAL #53). It seems pretty even and knowledgeable Sens fans agree that the price is fair and the premise reasonable. They’ll still have 5 picks in the 1st 2 rounds and 8 in the top-100. There’s only so much room in their system for prospects, at some point they’ll have to actually field an NHL team.

  4. ArmchairGM says:

    McNuge93:
    So is it fair to say Barabanov and Slepyshev are pretty comparable? Sleppy with the edge because of North American experience? Certainly would be a nice depth add to the Oilers.

    Here’s what LT wrote the other day:

    “Toronto signed a nice player today (Alexander Barabanov) two-way forward who is 25 and owns an NHLE of 30.7. I expect he’ll see plenty of playing time in the top nine for the Maple Leafs next season.

    That’s exactly the kind of role we might see for Anton Slepyshev, who is also 25 and has an NHLE of 54.9 after a fine 2019-20 season.”

    It’s worth noting that Barabanov is 5’10 while Slepyshev is 6’2. Having nearly double the scoring rate is significant.

  5. Oil2Oilers says:

    John Prine for me is like an American Robbie Burns a chronicler of life as it was/is and a great empathy for it all. Reflecting beauty, love and sorrow in the everyday. His work will live on as both an inspiration and connection for generations to come.

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    John Prine for me is like an American Robbie Burns a chronicler of life as it was/is and a great empathy for it all. Reflecting beauty, love and sorrow in the everyday. His work will live on as both an inspiration and connection for generations to come.

    A great tribute here:
    https://time.com/5812629/john-prine-dies-coronavirus/?amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

  7. albertaboundedmonton says:

    “So if you’re walking down the street sometime
    And you spot some hollow ancient eyes
    Please don’t just pass ‘em by and stare
    As if you don’t care, say, hello in there, hello.

    Goodbye and thank you John

  8. defmn says:

    I was under the impression that Slepyshev was under contract until the end of April.

    Has this changed?

  9. BONE207 says:

    Crazy times…until yesterday I had never heard of John Prine. I followed some of the links here & became a fan. In Spite of Ourselves is hilarious. Lyrics I can understand.

    That picture at the top of Hartikainen is classic. It’s the same look I have when watching CONNOR not draw penalties during hockey games. Wtf ref???

  10. Oil2Oilers says:

    Thanks for sharing this, it is a great tribute

  11. jdhardy says:

    I appreciate the thoughts & prayers for Colby, He’s my wife cousin and just a great guy. We always met up with him when the Broncos were visiting the Thunderbirds. Everyone was so excited when he was drafted, getting his first games in Boston, and then getting picked up by the Oilers and checking to see if he would be in the lineup so we could watch for #12.

    25 is getting into middle age in hockey years, but in the grand scheme of things he’s barely getting started. All we can do now as wait and hope that he comes out of this as healthy as possible.

    Hug those that you can, don’t take the days and the people you have for granted, and stay healthy.

  12. jp says:

    McNuge93:
    So is it fair to say Barabanov and Slepyshev are pretty comparable? Sleppy with the edge because of North American experience? Certainly would be a nice depth add to the Oilers.

    ArmchairGM: Here’s what LT wrote the other day:

    “Toronto signed a nice player today (Alexander Barabanov) two-way forward who is 25 and owns an NHLE of 30.7. I expect he’ll see plenty of playing time in the top nine for the Maple Leafs next season.

    That’s exactly the kind of role we might see for Anton Slepyshev, who is also 25 and has an NHLE of 54.9 after a fine 2019-20 season.”

    It’s worth noting that Barabanov is 5’10 while Slepyshev is 6’2. Having nearly double the scoring rate is significant.

    Their KHL scoring was reversed last season though.

    Barabanov scored 46 points in 18-19, 2nd on his team to Gusev (who lead the KHL with 82!). This season he scored 20, 7th on his team (which was lead by old Oilers camp invite Slava Tkachov’s 42 Pts).

    Slepyshev scored 25 in 18-19, tied for 5th on his team (lead by Grigorenko with 52). This year he scored 45, 3rd on his team (lead by Kaprizov with 62).

    Their scoring over 2 seasons is basically a wash. I agree you’d think Slepyshev’s size and prior NHL experience would give him an edge (plus the more recent strong season). Slepyshev was also the #1 pick for the KHL draft back in the day FWIW.

  13. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “This is good news for draft aficionados. Edmonton would draft No. 20, No. 82, No. 144, No. 175 and No. 206 based on winning percentage. I think we’ll see at least one pick added.”

    Something interesting I’ve been seeing on capfriendly is JP and Benning to Ottawa for their 2nd (#33) and one of their later 2nds (NYI #52 or DAL #53). It seems pretty even and knowledgeable Sens fans agree that the price is fair and the premise reasonable. They’ll still have 5 picks in the 1st 2 rounds and 8 in the top-100. There’s only so much room in their system for prospects, at some point they’ll have to actually field an NHL team.

    That would be a nice return IMO. I’m worried Benning alone might not even fetch a 2nd since he’s UFA a year from now…

  14. N64 says:

    / local cov models warning

    Today Alberta is starting to publish covid19 models which will estimate infections and death ranges for different scenarios Naturally, curious Albertans will compare them to other places at different places on the curve forecasting with different time frames, assumptions, and scenarios.

    The Alberta models will have a wide range of possible outcomes for 2 specific scenarios: a flatter mid-May peak and a steeper early May peak. They will also estimate the required hospital capacity to avoid soaring fatality rates experienced elsewhere when hospitals are crushed.

    After the pandemic excess deaths can be examined in detail to estimate deaths caused by the virus. Likewise, serology can be used to estimate the infected population to calculate the Infection Fatality Rates (IFR).

    But during an outbreak, you are mostly blind. The only way to reduce infections is to change human behavior and those changes take weeks to materialize in various *measurements* of infections, symptoms, suspect cases, tested cases, confirmed cases, hospitalization, ICU, ventilator use, deaths, and finally confirmed deaths. And of course, human behavior and social and economic interactions change in real-time based on people’s expectations (with and without public health advisories).

    Over the season all events on the ice lead to the pucks in the net you care about. Similarly, covid19 models estimate future infections and deaths in real-time. These models leverage prior models measured against other regions’ experiences. Because this is being done in real-time modelers must expect and benefit from model predictions being falsifiable within days and weeks. The accuracy and under/over-reporting of all inputs here and elsewhere must continually be assessed while comparing results and building, comparing and revising models.

    Goals matter. Deaths matter. The rest is forecasting. As with hurricanes you hope to change deaths by changes in behaviour before impact, but exact impact is unknown until very close and changes are needed weeks earlier.

    UPDATE (released):
    https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

  15. jp says:

    Thanks for sharing.

    Wishing all the best to Colby, his family and yours.

  16. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jdhardy,

    Colby was an interesting player. The fancies always presented a strong case, but the boxcars didn’t follow which is a shame. I always appreciated his rugged style. He displayed high character with his trips up and down between the show and the farm. That he wore #12 (my favourite number) and has the same first and last initials (as do I) meant I always kept an eye on him.

    Give him our collective best from the blog; we’re all pulling for him to fully recover.

    Thanks for checking in.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I read the piece at The Athletic last night and it was great, as always.

    Of course, the McDavid off forward GF% was driven mainly by the Drai line in 2020 and I am curious about the number from, say, December through the end of the 71 games.

    Recall that, for the first month or so of the season, outside of 3-4 players, noone on the team could piss a drop, like not a single little drop – it was like my Greyhound after an hour jaunt in the park – the leg would go up, nothing would come out.

    The McDavid off GF number at the end of October and in to November was abysmal.

    The recovery by the bottom 6-9 in this regard was phenomenal.

  18. N64 says:

    / local cov easing timeframe warning

    The other thing Albertans want to know is what should expect after this wave peaks. From last night’s talk:

    “we may have to leave our current public health orders in place until the end of May…I hope that the tough measures we have taken already will allow us to begin gradually returning to normal sooner than that. But that all depends on how Albertans act in the weeks to come.

    Once we are past the peak and can begin relaxing these rules, we will implement our Relaunch Strategy, our plan gradually to open up our economy while preventing a second wave of the virus.

    In this we will look to the example of countries like Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea that have managed to keep most of their economies functioning with a low level of viral spread.

    Here are the key elements of our Relaunch Strategy, that we are developing right now:

    1. An aggressive system of mass testing, using new tests that are being developed and approved, to identify positive cases and those with immunity more quickly, so we can get people back to work. Our plan is for Alberta to turn around as many as 20,000 tests a day. We are determined to continue leading the world in testing, the foundation of our Relaunch Strategy.

    2. More precise tracing of close contacts of those who are infected. We have done this better than other Canadian provinces to date, and we will expand those efforts.

    3. Strong border screening. I believe it was a mistake for Canada to wait so long to close our borders, especially from countries with high levels of infection. While Alberta does not control who can fly here, we will deploy a much more rigorous approach than the federal government has in screening and quarantining international arrivals.

    4. We will strictly enforce quarantine orders to ensure compliance, including using technology like smart phone apps when appropriate.

    5. We will encourage and facilitate the use of masks in crowded public spaces, like mass transit.

    These and other smart, focussed measures will allow us to relaunch our economy once the worst is over, while protecting ourselves from future outbreaks.

    We will closely study successful countries as our guide.

    Ultimately this virus will pose a great threat to human health until a vaccine or effective drug treatments are widely available.

    AHS is already participating in trials, and we will do everything we can to accelerate development of effective tests, drugs and vaccines”.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-action-plan-against-covid-19-1.5526026

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Bringing Slepyshev back under a competent HC, and with the more-proper group of talented players around now is a recipe for success. He’s a legit talent with NHL size and instincts. Potential for a huge win for both player and organization here. Get it done. And put the man on the powerplay already. That shot from the off-wing is a beauty.

  20. N64 says:

    / local cov drug trial warning

    India has increased export of the anti-malarial drug in the WHO Solidarity Drug Trials. Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec will be included in the McGill study (with U of A and U of M participation) :

    https://www.covid-19research.ca/home (info)
    https://cv19rct.idtrials.com/ (application form)

    “We are recruiting adults in Quebec, Alberta and Manitoba who have have a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, or are a household member exposed to a person who has COVID-19, or are a healthcare worker who had a high risk exposure to a COVID-19 case.

    This study is comparing the drug hydroxychloroquine to placebo to determine if it is effective in preventing the onset or progression of COVID-19 disease. Hydroxychloroquine is approved by Health Canada for the treatment of diseases like rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and acute attacks of malaria. There is some evidence that hydroxychloroquine may be helpful to reduce the symptoms of COVID-19 disease, but we don’t really know at this time. An urgent clinical trial is needed so we know if this drug should be used routinely or not.”

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1:
    Bringing Slepyshev back under a competent HC, and with the more-proper group of talented players around now is a recipe for success. He’s a legit talent with NHL size and instincts. Potential for a huge win for both player and organization here. Get it done. And put the man on the powerplay already. That shot from the off-wing is a beauty.

    We might want to pump the brakes on Schleppy a bit. While he’s likely a decent bottom six player, not sure where he fits on the PP. With the roster as it stands now, there is one spot available on PP1. That’s the net front presence role and we have a bunch of guys who can do that.

  22. dustrock says:

    Thanks for the insight N64.

  23. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Give my stomach to Milwaukee if they run out of beer
    Put my socks in a cedar box just get ’em outta here
    Venus de Milo can have my arms look out, I got your nose
    Sell my heart to the Junk man but give my love to Rose

    But Please don’t bury me down in that cold cold ground
    No I druther have ’em cut me up and pass me all around
    Throw my brain to a hurricane the blind can have my eyes
    The deaf can take both my ears if they don’t mind the size

    RIP John, wherever you are

  24. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: We might want to pump the brakes on Schleppy a bit. While he’s likely a decent bottom six player, not sure where he fits on the PP. With the roster as it stands now, there is one spot available onPP1.That’sthe net front presence role and we have a bunch of guys who can do that.

    Well, the good thing about having a first class head coach like Tippett is…

    You can be sure, certain that whatever new player joins the team will be getting a proper butcher’s hook.

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    The first review of John Prine penned by Roger Elbert.

    https://www.rogerebert.com/features/john-prine-american-legend

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    A proposal to decide the NHL standings by rolling back games played to 68.
    Sets up a Battle of Alberta in the first round.

    https://www.tsn.ca/seravalli-how-a-68-game-rollback-might-be-nhl-s-most-fair-standings-format-1.1464422?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A proposal to decide the NHL standings by rolling back games played to 68.
    Sets up a Battle of Alberta in the first round.

    https://www.tsn.ca/seravalli-how-a-68-game-rollback-might-be-nhl-s-most-fair-standings-format-1.1464422?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Oilers fans used to measure the season by regular finals appearances. First round matchups are for squirts.

  28. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: Oilers fans used to measure the season by regular finals appearances. First round matchups are for squirts.

    Used to.

  29. N64 says:

    Looked at that and there is an ever fairer approach.

    Not only do pts% and 68 games have the same 16 playoff teams they have the same 8 home teams.

    So let’s exploit the matchup differences between the options. By pts% let the home teams draft their road team opponents within conference.

    Mind you I’m happy to play the Dys round 1. Flames are fine too but I’d prefer to win with fewer injuries.

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    How do you think that would change the WC matchups?

  31. pts2pndr says:

    Used to is better than never for forever!?

  32. yeraslob says:

    hunter1909: Oilers fans used to measure the season by regular finals appearances. First round matchups are for squirts.

    See Calgary Flames, aka first round fodder.. Playoff participation ribbon record holders. Only 3 times beyond the first round in the last 30 years, fun fact that. Bunch of squirts!

  33. N64 says:

    I’d guess St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas would pick from Nashville, Flames and Dys and Oil would get another Star studded 1st round.

    As above I’d prefer std seeding by pts% and the Dys matchup.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Very much look foward to hearing about the signing of Slepyshev (1 year @ $1.2M) and Berglund (max ELC of $925K, maybe some performance bonuses for $300K).

    Maybe even Niemalainen – would be great to get him under an AHL contract to not count on the 50 but probably unlikely.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to the Holland quote on the Neal 3rd round pick, I was excited when I read Rishaug’s tweet but, after I listened to the verbal, I realized that Holland was just speculating and this wasn’t based on any direction or information from the league.

    Holland was asked about the pick, thought about it as he does, stated that terms of the condition and based his comment on that. I would think he is right but his assumption wasn’t/isn’t based on any directive from the league – I think its unlikely but the league could so some sort of pro-rating or something unique with respect to conditions.

    The book isn’t closed on that one in my opinion (but mostly shut I would think).

  36. hunter1909 says:

    yeraslob: See Calgary Flames, aka first round fodder..Playoff participation ribbon record holders.Only 3 times beyond the first round in the last 30 years, fun fact that.Bunch of squirts!

    One of my fave memories – listening to Calgary post game radio after a regularly administered humiliating loss.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to where Slepy might fit, in my opinion, he was a serviceable bottom 6 player with some upside when he left for Russia.

    Given he’s, from accounts, matured, his offence has spiked and he’ll come with offensive confidence, and he’s starting his prime years, I can’t imagine he’s not at least a serviceable bottom 6 player – that is his floor in my opinion.

    I think he also has a chance to play some top 6 wing – he’ get size, speed, skill and a good shot, he very well could mesh with one of Drai or McDavid.

    I think he can be slotted in as the Gagner-replaement – a player that can move around the lineup and even fill in with some skill in the top 6.

    Maybe we hit lightning again and he has a Kailer-like effect and solidifies a top 6 spot? Not likely but not totally out of the question.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge93:
    So is it fair to say Barabanov and Slepyshev are pretty comparable? Sleppy with the edge because of North American experience? Certainly would be a nice depth add to the Oilers.

    I would say they are comparable – I don’t know a ton about Barabanov but Slepy did have the much better offensive season (opposite to 2018/19) and has the higher pedigree.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    I was under the impression that Slepyshev was under contract until the end of April.

    Has this changed?

    I was under the same impression – I swear I read after the KHL officially cancelled their season that the KHL contracts would expire at the end of the month.

    I was surprised by the news of the signing yesterday.

    Maybe its one of those “unofficial things” that will get made official on May 1 (I think the Oilers had something similar with one of Nygard or Haas – the signing was reported in advance of it being official).

  40. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Holland specifically mentioned the trade notes filed with the league and said he didn’t believe there were any conditions relating to pro-rating. I’d like to see the trade notes but by the sounds of it, the condition won’t vest (assuming end of regular season).

  41. N64 says:

    NHLPA and CBA interpretation won’t be involved with this. So I’d expect no vesting unless somehow the BOG wades in with close to unanimity. That’s less likely than more games being played. YMMV.

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    N64:
    NHLPA and CBA interpretation won’t be involved with this. So I’d expect no vesting unless somehow the BOG wades in with close to unanimity.That’s less likely than more games being played. YMMV.

    I expect the BOG will be ruling on a great many issues and this will be one of them.

  43. N64 says:

    Exactly. Unless it’s something where the PA has a CBA interest it’s all about the BOG. Gary and the BOG change status quo defaults only with strong consensus. It would only take a few owners to object to reinterpreting those vesting clauses. Very surprised if vesting terms on conditional picks change from literal counts in original terms. Possible that that a change gets buried in a big package and BOG does not touch line items. But Gary in the past has avoided retouching details.

  44. Greenberg says:

    Didn’t know who Prine was but now I see why you’re all so sad. Your trolling is forgiven.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Their KHL scoring was reversed last season though.

    Barabanov scored 46 points in 18-19, 2nd on his team to Gusev (who lead the KHL with 82!). This season he scored 20, 7th on his team (which was lead by old Oilers camp invite Slava Tkachov’s 42 Pts).

    Slepyshev scored 25 in 18-19, tied for 5th on his team (lead by Grigorenko with 52). This year he scored 45, 3rd on his team (lead by Kaprizov with 62).

    Their scoring over 2 seasons is basically a wash. I agree you’d think Slepyshev’s size and prior NHL experience would give him an edge (plus the more recent strong season). Slepyshev was also the #1 pick for the KHL draft back in the day FWIW.

    Ya, I mentioned this earlier this afternoon (or this morning) – after your post but without reading it yet.

    I take Slepy has he had the better season this past season, is the bigger player and has the better pedigree (drafted in the 3rd round of the NHL after the top pick in the KHL draft previously, etc.).

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: That would be a nice return IMO. I’m worried Benning alone might not even fetch a 2nd since he’s UFA a year from now…

    I’ve read that premise a few times but its not like his current contract walks him to UFA.

    He’s currently an RFA so the Oilers or any acquiring team can sign him for 2, 3, 4 years.

    He could be signed any day for, say, 3 X $2.2M, for example.

    Its not like Nuge or Larsson who have current contracts that expire after one more year (and they can’t sign new contracts until July).

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    Bringing Slepyshev back under a competent HC, and with the more-proper group of talented players around now is a recipe for success. He’s a legit talent with NHL size and instincts. Potential for a huge win for both player and organization here. Get it done. And put the man on the powerplay already. That shot from the off-wing is a beauty.

    Tough to make material changes to PP1.

    I have no issue with Chiasson or Neal being replaced by Slepy but the “right shot from the off-side” isn’t the role he’d be replacing.

    Its Nuge over there that would be replaced by Slepy if we are setting up the one-timer.

    I have time for Nuge being QB of PP2 but only if it gets a real shot.

    WIth that said, maybe PP2 gets a real shot if Mc/Drai stay:

    PP1: McDavid, Drai, Slep, Neal (Chiasson), Klef

    PP2: McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Bear, X

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A proposal to decide the NHL standings by rolling back games played to 68.
    Sets up a Battle of Alberta in the first round.

    https://www.tsn.ca/seravalli-how-a-68-game-rollback-might-be-nhl-s-most-fair-standings-format-1.1464422?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

    At the end of the day, if they do happen to have a playoffs (which seems all but impossible to me at this point) its simply not going to be fair for all teams.

    They aren’t going to finish off the regular season schedule so, no matter what they do, it won’t be equal and fair among all 31 teams.

    – If they go with current standings points – not fair to some such as those with a higher points percentage

    – if they go with points percentage – not fair to a team that has actually accumulated more points.

    – if they make is so that all teams play a equal games (be it 72, 76 or back to 68) – not fair to some teams that have played more on the road or more against higher end teams, etc.

    I look forward to the official cancellation with a focus on starting the new season in full in early October.

    Lets get a “normal off-season” with QO deadline, draft, buyout deadline, draft, cap set, free agency, development camps, training camps and regular season.

    Starting a new season in early October may not even be do-able but, for me, that should be the current focus.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Holland specifically mentioned the trade notes filed with the league and said he didn’t believe there were any conditions relating to pro-rating.I’d like to see the trade notes but by the sounds of it, the condition won’t vest (assuming end of regular season).

    What i heard was he was talking about the strict conditions of the trade – 21 goals and 10 more than Lucic – that didn’t happen so no pick.

    I anticipate that will be the final analysis but this is an unprecedented situation and, for all we know, the league will do something with these types of conditions – its unlikely but we don’t know.

  50. Harpers Hair says:

    Who turned on the fire hose?

  51. gn68 says:

    LT
    Thanks for the tribute to John Prine
    He was a great songwriter who wrote a lot of profound words
    Also had a sense of humour
    Just listened to “In Spite of Ourselves” and said thanks John for the laughs as well as the serious stuff

  52. yeraslob says:

    yeraslob: See Calgary Flames, aka first round fodder..Playoff participation ribbon record holders.Only 3 times beyond the first round in the last 30 years, fun fact that.Bunch of squirts!

    I just looked this up and it’s even more pathetic than I first posted. It’s actually only TWICE beyond the first round in the last 30 years.
    Another fun fact: Cup winners in ’89, then they rested on their laurels never winning a round for the next 15 years!

  53. godot10 says:

    Benning can opt for arbitration. i.e. He has a pathway to UFA status that he himself controls.

  54. jp says:

    It sure is. Man.

  55. €√¥£€^$ says:

    My heart hurts for the young lady and their families and close friends.

  56. Harpers Hair says:
  57. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Tough to make material changes to PP1.

    I have no issue with Chiasson or Neal being replaced by Slepy but the “right shot from the off-side” isn’t the role he’d be replacing.

    Its Nuge over there that would be replaced by Slepy if we are setting up the one-timer.

    I have time for Nuge being QB of PP2 but only if it gets a real shot.

    WIth that said, maybe PP2 gets a real shot if Mc/Drai stay:

    PP1: McDavid, Drai, Slep, Neal (Chiasson), Klef

    PP2: McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Bear, X

    I don’t think it makes any sense to put Nuge on PP2. The team had an historically good PP this year and Nuge was a critical piece of the puzzle. In fact, I think you can argue the PP is the strongest part of his game. The team proved this year that you don’t need two PP units. It’s weird, in your examples PP2 is better than PP1.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Who turned on the fire hose?

    Pardon?

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think it makes any sense to put Nuge on PP2. The team had an historically good PP this year and Nuge was a critical piece of the puzzle. In fact, I think you can argue the PP is the strongest part of his game.The team proved this year that you don’t need two PP units.It’s weird, in your examples PP2 is better than PP1.

    I don’t disagree at all – just trying to go with the flow and find a way to fit Slepy in to PP1.

    Just for the sake of Oilers conversation – not a ton to talk about.

  60. jp says:

    And, he’s Oilers property.

    But yeah, I agree with Slepyshev over Barabanov if given the choice.

    One related point. Both players have been surrounded with excellent teammates, but the numbers suggest Barabanov was linemates with Gusev when he scored 46 points in 18-19, with Gusev scoring 82 to lead the KHL. I think Gusev pumped Barabanov more that season than any of Slepyshev’s teammates this season.

  61. who says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think it makes any sense to put Nuge on PP2. The team had an historically good PP this year and Nuge was a critical piece of the puzzle. In fact, I think you can argue the PP is the strongest part of his game.The team proved this year that you don’t need two PP units.It’s weird, in your examples PP2 is better than PP1.

    Amen brother.
    Why are we even talking about moving Nuge off PP1?
    Is a 30% success rate not good enough?

  62. jp says:

    He’s not a pending UFA but him being under control for only 1 year I’m sure affects his value some. Arbitration eligible, as Godot notes doesn’t help either. Nuge and Larsson also wouldn’t bring as much in return with only 1 year left as if they had 3 years to UFA. We’ll see I guess, I hope some GM thinks highly of Benning.

  63. jp says:

    Erik Haula.

    How much would he cost as a UFA? And what is he worth? Still a significant injury risk?

    Looks like a really great 3C option to me, likely not attainable (this assumes a compliance buyout for Neal is available). Would be curious what folks think.

  64. meanashell11 says:

    I cannot imagine the situation.

    Right now emotions are running very high in my household.

    I cannot imagine.

  65. v4ance says:

    Ryan Pike @RyanNPike

    @reporterchris appearance on @Steve_Dangle podcast: sounds like salary cap will probably be stuck around $81.5m for next few seasons.

    Just a rumor but if so it means the NHL and the PA will try spread the pain of this lost season over multiple years so the escrow won’t hurt as bad.

    ***

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to the Holland quote on the Neal 3rd round pick, I was excited when I read Rishaug’s tweet but, after I listened to the verbal, I realized that Holland was just speculating and this wasn’t based on any direction or information from the league.

    Holland was asked about the pick, thought about it as he does, stated that terms of the condition and based his comment on that.I would think he is right but his assumption wasn’t/isn’t based on any directive from the league – I think its unlikely but the league could so some sort of pro-rating or something unique with respect to conditions.

    The book isn’t closed on that one in my opinion (but mostly shut I would think).

    If the league was to pro-rate any results, it would affect all manner of rookie bonus clauses as well as this particular Oilers trade clause. If the NHL and the PA are looking to “shave” some money to decrease the escrow going forwaard, not having to pay as many rookie bonuses would be one area they would easily agree on. Those ELC guys would have very little leverage to protest.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    v4ance:
    Ryan Pike @RyanNPike

    @reporterchris appearance on @Steve_Dangle podcast: sounds like salary cap will probably be stuck around $81.5m for next few seasons.

    Just a rumor but if so it means the NHL and the PA will try spread the pain of this lost season over multiple years so the escrow won’t hurt as bad.

    Yup, I see them setting the cap around $82M for the next 3-4 years.

  67. jp says:

    I was also thinking about rookie and other player bonuses. The Players Assoc. would have a strong interest and argument for pushing those to be pro-rated. It would be kinda unfair if they weren’t. Though at the same time, things like Mike Smith’s playoff bonuses get dicey real fast. How do you pro-rate rounds won and stuff like that?

    Anyway, I can see games played, points and other performance bonuses getting pro-rated, but so many of the trade-related bonuses involve playoff performance that it would be incredibly difficult territory to get into mediating. Who knows, but my guess is that trade/draft pick related clauses wouldn’t be pro-rated for that reason.

  68. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, I see them setting the cap around $82M for the next 3-4 years.

    The one thing the league has going for it that hasn’t always been the case is that I think Fehr & Bettman respect each other’s professionalism.

    You don’t hear the constant sniping that used to characterize the relationship.

  69. Mr DeBakey says:

    I’m trying to remember my Prine viewings today
    – twice at the Folk Festival, one 85/86 with guitar only, and a few years later with a band
    – 1984 at the Jubilee with Steve Goodman
    – I’m sure once more but…. the old noodle is, in fact, an old noodle.

    At that 84 gig, Goodman was dying.
    He had leukemia and passed away in September.
    Goodman’s songs were full of life, a celebration.
    Prine’s songs were a dirge [grammar!], very sad.

    I remember being really happy to see the Folkfest gig with the band – a joyous concert compared to the first time I saw him.

  70. Munny says:

    jp: Looks like a really great 3C option to me, likely not attainable (this assumes a compliance buyout for Neal is available). Would be curious what folks think.

    His name has been bandied about this site quite a bit these past two months, so I’d say such a signing would have a lot of support. I haven’t looked into his numbers personally… deep hockey analysis seems kind of pointless right now.

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Pardon?

    Side eye

  72. Munny says:

    v4ance: Ryan Pike @RyanNPike

    @reporterchris appearance on @Steve_Dangle podcast: sounds like salary cap will probably be stuck around $81.5m for next few seasons.

    Just a rumor but if so it means the NHL and the PA will try spread the pain of this lost season over multiple years so the escrow won’t hurt as bad.

    Hmm. One wonders what years they will spread the pain of next season over?

  73. Munny says:

    Munny: Hmm.One wonders what years they will spread the pain of next season over?

    Let’s say they get 82 games in next year… (could happen lol)

    Over the course of those 82 games, if attendance, jersey sales etc are 16 percent lower than pre-Covid this year, HRR will actually be less next year than it was this year.

    What then?

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Let’s say they get 82 games in next year… (could happen lol)

    Over the course of those 82 games, if attendance, jersey sales etc are 16 percent lower than pre-Covid this year, HRR will actually be less next year than it was this year.

    What then?

    Important to remember that Seattle expansion money and the new US television deal will be in play.

    The TV deal may take a hit but it will almost assuredly be higher.

  75. jp says:

    Munny: Let’s say they get 82 games in next year… (could happen lol)

    Over the course of those 82 games, if attendance, jersey sales etc are 16 percent lower than pre-Covid this year, HRR will actually be less next year than it was this year.

    What then?

    I have no idea, but does it really matter?

    On some level of course it does, but NHL hockey will continue. Life more broadly will go on.

    If HRR goes down substantially likely everyone will have to take a haircut. And maybe there will be hundreds of compliance buyouts on the market that will have to settle for 500k or 300k deals. I’ll still watch.

  76. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Important to remember that Seattle expansion money and the new US television deal will be in play.

    The TV deal may take a hit but it will almost assuredly be higher.

    Seattle expansion money is not in the HRR.

    The TV contract is the only thing that can possibly save this strategy being proposed, and it is by no means a sure saviour.

  77. jp says:

    Munny: His name has been bandied about this site quite a bit these past two months, so I’d say such a signing would have a lot of support.I haven’t looked into his numbers personally…deep hockey analysis seems kind of pointless right now.

    Haula does seem like a good option, I’m more having trouble pricing him. What’s reasonable, what’s he likely to get paid? (continuing to use the current NHL salary structure since we can’t predict what changes might come).

    In terms of hockey analysis right now, people need to live their lives how they’re going to live them. For me, distraction is sometimes useful, especially when a problem isn’t something I can easily control. I completely understand if others can’t or don’t want to do the same, and likewise if they aren’t interested so much in hockey talk now. These certainly are strange times.

  78. Munny says:

    Let’s say they try to muddle through as the strategy proposes by keeping the cap flat for 3 years.

    And then lets say HRR is actually poorer next year then it was this year and despite the cap freeze, there’s murderous escrow.

    That may lead to a work stoppage, ie no CBA and no hockey till there is one.

    Or rather than having a 15 percent rollback and buyouts over three years, because they kept it flat originally, they’re forced into bigger rollbacks in the future.

    As a fan, seeing our up and coming org stymied by a stupid League strategy won’t be a pleasurable experience.

    What happens if they lose a franchise? What happens if some owners want to sell, for eg Katz? He’s already afflicted by a locally deflationary economy sans Covid, which, given that he’s likely leveraged in some way, is a killer on the pocketbook.

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Seattle expansion money is not in the HRR.

    The TV contract is the only thing that can possibly save this strategy being proposed, and it is by no means a sure saviour.

    Seattle revenue…no matter the expansion fee will be part of HHR.

    Remember they have already sold out season tickets and will have merchandise sales etc..

  80. Munny says:

    Well the thing is, any present analysis is merely going to echo in empty canyons right now and will have to be revived and rehashed once the League is good to go and fans return their attention to hockey… so why waste effort now is my opinion.

    But I would say the starting point is asking the community, fro the POV of Holland… what attributes must the 3C have, what attributes would they like to see, but aren’t critical, and what attributes are luxuries, but great if you can get them. And then based on how much of all of that one can get, what would be a good price point.

    For me a big one is RH shot and ability to take PK FOs. Haula, for eg, doesn’t fit either of those requirements.

  81. Munny says:

    Ahh, so you misstated your premise. 😉

    That would mitigate some effects, IF the status quo in Seattle remains the same (Boeing is waving hello). By itself, it is nowhere near enough.

    The point is… in Economics avoiding short term deep pain in return for medium term somewhat lesser pain is rarely a good strategy. I can’t actually think of an exception off the top of my head… but to play it safe, I will say, “rarely”.

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Well the thing is, any present analysis is merely going to echo in empty canyons right now and will have to be revived and rehashed once the League is good to go and fans return their attention to hockey… so why waste effort now is my opinion.

    But I would say the starting point is asking the community, fro the POV of Holland… what attributes must the 3C have, what attributes would they like to see, but aren’t critical, and what attributes are luxuries, but great if you can get them.And then based on how much of all of that one can get, what would be a good price point.

    For me a big one is RH shot and ability to take PK FOs.Haula, for eg, doesn’t fit either of those requirements.

    Why is being a RHS important?

  83. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers

    https://theathletic.com/1730612/2020/04/09/lowetide-why-jack-quinn-is-a-perfect-2020-draft-fit-for-the-oilers/

  84. jp says:

    I took the progression from “deep hockey analysis seems kind of pointless” to “what if sales are down 16%… what then” to mean something close to “it’s pointless to talk about anything hockey related until we know what the fallout will be from this”.

    It absolutely does matter what the fallout is and how it’s dealt with (maybe more so than I realize). And it’s fair to worry whether this, and the AB economy, will affect the Oilers more than the average team. Still, most probably in the big picture NHL hockey will continue much as it has (on the surface level at least).

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Hmm.One wonders what years they will spread the pain of next season over?

    I anticipate the cap will be essentially flat around that level (maybe nominal increases) for a good 3-6 years – they will be making up the lost $1.1B in revenue this year (well, I guess $550MM on the cap) and then the cap number being artificial next year with projected revenues. Hopefully revenues increase after next year in the normal course plus the US TV deal still comes in as expected and the cap will then be less than 50% of HRR and the owners will claw back what’s owed.

  86. jp says:

    Yes, certainly there will be less of an audience for hockey talk or analysis these days than there might normally be. I look this stuff up for myself and my own understanding of a player. If others find it interesting that’s great too, but I honestly would do the same most of the time even if I wasn’t going to post it on Lowetide. So there’s no wasted effort in this case.

    On Haula, he has a lot of attributes Holland would want in a 3C. I agree RH would be ideal but I don’t view it as a dealbreaker. And on PK face-offs, Haula is an exceptional FO guy (53-55% generally) and actually has a decent PK history. He was a regular PKer in Minnesota, and a secondary one in Vegas and Carolina. I was surprised to find his results on the PK have been excellent, so I do think he’d be able to fill that role.

  87. Munny says:

    Balance.

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