I Knew The Bride (When she used to rock n roll)

If it came down to one off-ice element of the game that I hold most dear, it would be the draft. It has always fascinated me, beginning in 1971. I had so many questions on draft day ’73, one of which took 20 years to answer: WHY did the Habs take Bob Gainey (22 goals in the OHA) while Rick Middleton (67 goals in the same league) was still on the board? Why?

And why, in the same draft, did the California Seals, the worst team on the planet, draft No. 34, while the Habs drafted four times before that spot in the draft? The draft has held my interest for a hockey lifetime and one of the joys of this spring, for me, is the progression toward another draft.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

CENTRAL

In the summer of 1975, the National Hockey League hired Jack Button as director of the Central Scouting Service. It has been called “bureau” from time to time and you often see CSS or CSB in print, but it’s all the same organization.

The July 1975 Hockey News: “NHL president Clarence Campbell said Button will be located in Montreal. Button, who is 36, will be preoccupied with developing and administering the NHL’s central scouting computer operation for all 18 teams. He will hire 8 scouts to work with him.”

Central’s list 2020

I always like to pick out a few players to discuss, my item at The Athletic this morning focuses on Jack Quinn. There are other interesting names.

Evan Vierling wasn’t ranked on the midterm, he was No. 66 on the final edition. He was traded (after requesting it) from Flint to Barrie and his NHLE with the Colts was 32.2. Playmaking center. I think the OHL has a strong crop this year.

Jack Finley is a 6.06 center who moved up to No. 38, he’s a player I’ve identified as being worth a second (have him at 50 on my list) and now I wonder if he could slide into the late second of the first round. Big centers are valuable, especially if there’s some skill.

Jake Neighbours of the Edmonton Oil Kings landed at No. 26, that suggests he’ll land 33-40 on draft day. Oilers don’t have a second round selection but his range and NHLE (27.1) puts him just a little ahead of Tyler Benson (23.1) on his draft day.

Anton Johannesson is a 5.09, 144 defenseman who plays in the Swedish juniors. He moved up from 49 to 31. He must be an exceptional talent.

PICKS

I think Holland will add a pick or two and expect two of the first three prospects will be forwards. In the coming days, I’ll be drilling down on these names and will have a top 100 for the draft by the end of April.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Long weekend straight ahead, nice day too, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports joins us to talk about the Oilers season and assessing it as a completion of the year (no playoffs, no Stanley). Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will pop in at 10:40 to talk Central list and the 2020 draft. Matt Iwanyk pops in to discuss NFL draft, CFL draft and how Alberta is doing in the battle against COVID-19. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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182 Responses to "I Knew The Bride (When she used to rock n roll)"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am not a big undrafted prospects guy – I love the prospects and keeping appraised on them etc. but once they are drafted. There is only so much one can keep up on, well, if hockey/sports isn’t his career and money-maker.

    Anyways, I can’t remember where I heard it – maybe it was on the Lowdown but it may have been on ON or the Gregor show but the host or guest mentioned he had talked to two scouts, independent of each other – one said there was a drop off after the top 23 and the other posited a drop off after 24.

    While of course there are tiers within that top 23/24 (top 3 better than 10-15, for example), it sounds like drafting in the top 23-24 will get a high tier high skill prospect. Oilers will be drafting 20th or 23rd depending on if they decide to go with Pts% or straight Pts accumulated. I’m a bit leary of giving up an asset to move up but, fo course, it depends on cost and if the tier improvement is material.

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    What are the chances Jack Quinn is available when the Oilers pick? I’m thinking not likely

  3. dustrock says:

    flyfish1168:
    What are the chances Jack Quinn is available when the Oilers pick? I’m thinking not likely

    Seriously doubt he’d be available.

    I always like risers in draft year.

  4. BONE207 says:

    Well according to this…very good.

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

    fingers crossed

  5. BONE207 says:

    Busy day yesterday…missed all the first round games which started on Wednesday.
    Has anyone got any updates? ☺

  6. BONE207 says:

    And why, in the same draft, did the California Seals, the worst team on the planet, draft No. 34, while the Habs drafted four times before that spot in the draft?

    Man, the California seals must have had a potato for a GM. What was that, a 3rd rounder for a first pick? Jesus H Christ, my first pair of skates could have done that…Montreal scouting staff probably took guitar cases to negotiations with other teams.

  7. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am not a big undrafted prospects guy – I love the prospects and keeping appraised on them etc. but once they are drafted. There is only so much one can keep up on, well, if hockey/sports isn’t his career and money-maker.

    Anyways, I can’t remember where I heard it – maybe it was on the Lowdown but it may have been on ON or the Gregor show but the host or guest mentioned he had talked to two scouts, independent of each other – one said there was a drop off after the top 23 and the other posited a drop off after 24.

    While of course there are tiers within that top 23/24 (top 3 better than 10-15, for example), it sounds like drafting in the top 23-24 will get a high tier high skill prospect.Oilers will be drafting 20th or 23rd depending on if they decide to go with Pts% or straight Pts accumulated.I’m a bit leary of giving up an asset to move up but, fo course, it depends on cost and if the tier improvement is material.

    Are you suggesting moving up to ensure not falling out of that top tier of players? 20 or 23 sound like good spots to me. A few teams always go off board, the Oilers are all but assured to have their pick of a few to tier guys left unless they go walkabout themselves.

  8. jp says:

    Thanks, as always, for the draft coverage LT.

    I hope Holland can find a way to add at least one 2nd. Yesterday’s suggestion of Puljujarvi and Benning for Ottawa’s two 2nds (by Armchair I think) would be a great result from where I sit.

  9. flyfish1168 says:

    Lets say there is a playoffs and Neal scores 2 more goals too reach 21. Is it in the trade memo that the 21 goals MUST in the regular season? If it doesn’t mention this, does this open a can of worms the phlegms can argue for the 3rd round pick.

  10. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168:
    Lets say there is a playoffs and Neal scores 2 more goals too reach 21. Is it in the trade memo that the 21 goals MUST in the regular season? If it doesn’t mention this,does this open a can of worms the phlegms can argue for the 3rd round pick.

    it would have nothing to do with playoffs.

  11. flyfish1168 says:

    jtblack: it would have nothing to do with playoffs.

    I’m bring it up since this maybe a grey area for them to argue for the 3rd round pick. All things can’t be assumed if its not in writing and signed for everyone to understand

  12. Oil2Oilers says:

    A small trade up for Jack Quinn would work for me. Toronto looks to be picking about 3 spots above the Oilers. Carolina owns that pick, flipping 1st’s with them for Puljujarvi and one of there two 2nd’s might be a win win.

  13. €√¥£€^$ says:

    flyfish1168,

    It’s in black & white:

    Milan Lucic ($750,000 retained – 12.5%) · $5,250,000
    2020 conditional 3rd round pick* (EDM – #85)
    *Conditions: Pick is transferred if James Neal scores 21 goals and Milan Lucic scores 10 or fewer goals than Neal in the 2019-20 season.

  14. Harpers Hair says:

    Slepyshev signs a two year contract in the KHL.

  15. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168: I’m bring it up since this maybe a grey area for them to argue for the 3rd round pick. All things can’t be assumed if its not in writing and signed for everyone to understand

    are they going to count pre season goals also? charity tournament goals?

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    jtblack: are they going to count pre season goals also?charity tournament goals?

    I Happy its that easy that we keep our pick

  17. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Well, shit.

  18. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Slepyshev signs a two year contract in the KHL.

    Unfortunate. Since he will be over 27 when that contract expires he is effectively no longer Oiler property.

  19. defmn says:

    jp:
    Thanks, as always, for the draft coverage LT.

    I hope Holland can find a way to add at least one 2nd. Yesterday’s suggestion of Puljujarvi and Benning for Ottawa’s two 2nds (by Armchair I think) would be a great result from where I sit.

    Is this because you don’t think Puljujarvi will ever amount to much in the NHL or because you have given up on him ever re-signing with the Oilers?

  20. dustrock says:

    Dang those enigmatic Russians.

    Sleppy’s just so enigmatic right now!

  21. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Slepyshev signs a two year contract in the KHL.

    Looks like it. Too bad.

    Not too surprising I guess if Oilers offer was $1M-$1.2M as reported. Supposedly he made more than that last year in the KHL (I heard $1.3M equivalent) and probably got an additional raise to stay closer to home.

  22. €√¥£€^$ says:

    flyfish1168,

    I’ve never understood this. It is very straight forward in my mind, he either achieved the 21 goal mark during regular season play or he didn’t. When the season is over, no one can debate that he achieved 21 goals. All this woulda, coulda, shoulda was created by a Calgary Flames writer, not based at all on any facts.

    Apparently so many of us have felt so burned by losing draft picks for the Chia and TMac signings,-what an absolutely idiotic rule btw, that we expect we will again, eh? Kinda how it used to go with video reviews. We have Connor and Leon, those days are so done.

  23. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Looks like it. Too bad.

    Not too surprising I guess if Oilers offer was $1M-$1.2M as reported. Supposedly he made more than that last year in the KHL (I heard $1.3M equivalent) and probably got an additional raise to stay closer to home.

    I have a feeling many European players may opt to play at home in the next few years as the world recovers from Covid. Too much uncertainty in the world.

  24. jp says:

    defmn: Is this because you don’t think Puljujarvi will ever amount to much in the NHL or because you have given up on him ever re-signing with the Oilers?

    I think he’ll most likely be a solid NHLer, so yes mostly about him not coming back to Edmonton.

    The proposed trade involved pick #33 from Ottawa which seems like relatively high market value for Puljujarvi (talk has been he’d be gone already if anyone were offering a 1st, so #33 is the next best thing).

    Also a factor is Benning for the other 2nd (suggested to be #52 or 53). I like Benning lots but Tippett does not. And since he’s only under control for 1 more year I think a 2nd would be great value for him (my guess is he likely doesn’t fetch a 2nd on his own, hope I’m wrong).

    Putting it all together, also with the Oilers present lack of a 2nd and neither player being particularly needed for the lineup spot they’d likely fill with the Oilers, #33 and #52/53 seems like a good return IMO.

  25. jp says:

    Certainly could be. And maybe many NA players that have been in Europe sticking closer to home too (maybe the book on MAP isn’t closed after all).

  26. geowal says:

    Not to mention that one could argue Lucic’s play had improved in the second half – maybe he goes on a year and lots four more goals! Unlikely, but it COULD have happened…

  27. jtblack says:

    LT: keep an eye on … Ridly Greig.  I am biased because I have watched him since he was 14, but bias aside, here is why Edmonton should consider Greig, even in the 1st round, but certainly in the 2nd round, assuming they obtain a pick.

    Greig is one of the youngest players in the draft.  He is a C, but can play W.

    Greig had 60 points in 56 games for Brandon.  But if you dig a little deeper, after January 1st he posted 30 points in 20 games.

    He finished the season on a 8 game point streak.  Averaged 4 shots per game.   He plays PP, PK and is good 5×5.  

    Greig may be a reach in Round 1, but I see value if Edm can pick him up in Round 2!

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Real disappointing news on Slepy – unlike the SHL, a KHL contract does preclude signing in the NHL and, given its two years, the Oilers will no longer have his rights when its over.

    I was excited to have him back in the mix – I think his floor was a solid bottom 6/middle 6 forward for the Oilers and there was the chance he could fit in the top 6.

    He would have been some solid additional depth – a big winger with speed, skill, a good shot and a mature game.

    Oh well!

  29. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Erik Haula has been a provisional 3C target of mine for a while.

    BornInAGretzkyJersey says:
    January 19, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    Is Erik Haula a good bet for a UFA signing as 3C next year?

    Haven’t dug into the fancies but I recall him being a good skater and gritty.

    While I’d prefer a right hand shot for the centre I don’t see much available as a UFA outside of Spezza, and I’d I prefer Sheahan as 4C anyways. Reason I’d like to get at least one righty centre is for strong side draws. But it’s not an absolute for team success, as we saw this year when Haas wasn’t playing.

    I think he’d be looking for a bit of a raise from his current $2.75M but he’s got a history of signing shorter term (2-3 year) contracts at modest increases, so I doubt a 2-3-year $3-3.25M pact would be out of the realm of possibility. Especially in this post-Covid contract climate. He’s generally durable too, so even at 29 (this year) I wouldn’t be terribly worried to go a bit longer at a similar (or lower) AAV.

    My amateurish takeaway on his PK fancies is he had been used a lot earlier in his career in MIN then less so in VGK, then saw a surge again after trade this year. Relative to PK minute leaders in MIN he performed well vis a vis shot rates and goals against with a higher rate of OTF shifts than say Koivu and Clutterbuck.

  30. Georgexs says:

    Best wedding song ever. So fun!

  31. Munny says:

    I’m winning my playoff draft!

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Agree to the above. I’d rather see JP flourish in Oilers silks but he does seem bound and determined to move on. Benning is a player I have plenty of time for but it would seem the recent coaching staffs would disagree.

    Not to mention the RHD depth chart in OTT is Zaitsev and 38 year old LHS Hainsey who is a UFA next year. Benning would be a boon to their team next year, on both the depth chart and accounting ledger.

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    I’ve said it before on this blog, but I’ll say it again: the Oilers have spent a LOT of draft capital on the RW position over the past 4 drafts, and that position is probably the strongest on the team after LHD. Moreso, if you’re only looking at the prospect pool. Puljujarvi (1st round), Yamamoto (1st) and Lavoie (2nd) represent a significant percentage of available draft capital. Add to that Safin (4th), Blumel (4th), Maksimov (5th) and the fact that Rasanen (6th) apparently moved to RW this season. So why target another RW? I get BPA, but within each tier where there are several interchangeable players, why not stock up on areas of need?

    LW is particularly weak, with just Benson (2nd), McPhee (5th) and Siikanen (7th) in the cupboard. And the odds are virtually nil that the latter two make it anywhere near the NHL.

    Even Center has been neglected, especially since Rasanen has been moved to wing. McLeod (2nd), Brind’Amour (6th) and Mazura (6th) make for a pretty weak lineup. I get that the Oilers have the 2 best centers in the world locked up long-term plus Nuge, but spending a high pick to acquire another good C should be a consideration if the Oilers ever want to be a truly elite team.

  34. jimmers2 says:

    I think this it is very likely that HH is right, at least for players on the margins of nhl rosters. Pandemic related problems could easily (probably) extend well into the next year, imagine living through that as a young man away from home and stuck in the AHL in some luckless place. I wondered if avoiding Bakersfield for these reasons might have been part of Berglund’s decision to sign at home, and there are worse places to be than Bakersfield. Then there is the economy.
    One has to think that Sleppy would have been a roster player but staying close to home and “safe” for a year or two doesn’t really seem like a crazy idea either.
    I would love to see Sleppy come back…

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Stauff, Holland offered Slep the choice of both a one year or a two year deal.

    My guess is the AAV was lower than his KHL offer – he may have received a raise on the 90MM rubles he made last year (which equates to apx $1.2M USD – give or take currency fluctuations).

  36. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Considering how sad Ma Kettle was to hear of John Prine’s passing when I read it from the blog, I played his Tiny Desk concert from a couple years ago for her. Also for me, because of the words I’d read here and her reaction. Quite an introduction.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/03/12/592266527/john-prine-tiny-desk-concert

    I quickly recognized his influence when I heard the third song, which immediately reminded me of “Home” by Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes. The music is a bit country for my typical rotation but man, could he write lyrics. I can see myself exploring more of his catalogue. The things you learn on a hockey blog 🙂

  37. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Slepyshev signs a two year contract in the KHL.

    This is probably the worst possible moment in time to propose travel and leaving one’s homeland and extended family for the same money.

  38. defmn says:

    jp: I think he’ll most likely be a solid NHLer, so yes mostly about him not coming back to Edmonton.

    The proposed trade involved pick #33 from Ottawa which seems like relatively high market value for Puljujarvi (talk has been he’d be gone already if anyone were offering a 1st, so #33 is the next best thing).

    Also a factor is Benning for the other 2nd (suggested to be #52 or 53). I like Benning lots but Tippett does not. And since he’s only under control for 1 more year I think a 2nd would be great value for him (my guess is he likely doesn’t fetch a 2nd on his own, hope I’m wrong).

    Putting it all together, also with the Oilers present lack of a 2nd and neither player being particularly needed for the lineup spot they’d likely fill with the Oilers, #33 and #52/53 seems like a good return IMO.

    Thanks for the response.

    There are many on this blog who seem to think Benning’s numbers make him a legit 2RD. I don’t see it myself but I think he is a plus 3RD. Is that not worth a late 2nd rounder?

    I don’t know, but if we drafted a third pairing dman in the late 2nd round after 3-4 years of development I think we would be pretty happy with that.

    Personally I don’t trade Puljujarvi for a draft pick. I let him play in Europe for the rest of his life if that is the best we can do.

    I know. It is the best draft year since 2012. We could get a good player at 33.

    I don’t care. I let him make his $200,000 a year in Finland for another year. If his value drops because of that I don’t care.

    So to sum up. I just don’t care.

    Puljujarvi is where he is because of decisions he made. He can get himself out of where he is the same way. I see no reason for the Oilers to help him out by agreeing to take 20 cents on the dollar. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than walk away from the 80.

    I say this without rancour. I hold no grudge over him doing what he thought was best for himself. Likewise I think the Oilers should do what is best for themselves without caring how it affects Puljujarvi.

    If I can’t get 80 cents on the dollar I just write him off and move forward.

  39. Munny says:

    defmn: Unfortunate. Since he will be over 27 when that contract expires he is effectively no longer Oiler property.

    Sad, but true. We’d probably still have the inside track though in two years, if he wants another crack at The Show and life has calmed down by then.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    jp:
    Thanks, as always, for the draft coverage LT.

    I hope Holland can find a way to add at least one 2nd. Yesterday’s suggestion of Puljujarvi and Benning for Ottawa’s two 2nds (by Armchair I think) would be a great result from where I sit.

    I was calling for a JP-for-high-2nd at the last draft too, if you recall. When Kaliyev didn’t get picked on Friday I was adamant that Holland should be all over Ottawa to get their #32 pick in order to grab the OHLer… and he’s followed up his 1.52 P/GP draft season with an impressive 1.72 P/GP draft+1. Scott Wheeler names him as one of the risers of the draft just a few weeks ago:

    https://theathletic.com/1664788/2020/03/11/wheeler-risers-and-fallers-since-the-2019-nhl-draft/

    This year I’m looking for a guy like Lukas Reichel to be available early in the 2nd. I would trade JP for this kid.

    https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2020-nhl-draft/2020-draft-profile-lw-lukas-reichel/

  41. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: Personally I don’t trade Puljujarvi for a draft pick. I let him play in Europe for the rest of his life if that is the best we can do.

    defmn: I don’t care. I let him make his $200,000 a year in Finland for another year. If his value drops because of that I don’t care.

    defmn: Puljujarvi is where he is because of decisions he made. He can get himself out of where he is the same way. I see no reason for the Oilers to help him out by agreeing to take 20 cents on the dollar. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than walk away from the 80.

    defmn: I say this without rancour. I hold no grudge over him doing what he thought was best for himself. Likewise I think the Oilers should do what is best for themselves without caring how it affects Puljujarvi.

    Yes, yes, yes, and yes.

  42. jeetz says:

    jp,

    I agree. Really, Holland could have offered 2.5 x 2 and I believe Slepyshev would have covered that bet. Too bad

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: Ridly Greig

    Excellent choice. It’s interesting to note that McKenzie has him ranked 31, so anywhere in the 2nd is a good spot to grab this player.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    jeetz:
    jp,

    I agree. Really, Holland could have offered 2.5 x 2 and I believe Slepyshev would have covered that bet. Too bad

    Holland can always cover any bet by offering more money – then the cap kicks in and he’s fucked lol

  45. yeraslob says:

    jeetz:
    jp,

    I agree. Really, Holland could have offered 2.5 x 2 and I believe Slepyshev would have covered that bet. Too bad

    This is where the Chaisson signing buggers things up.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    Are you also up for cutting off your nose to spite your face?

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: I think the Oilers should do what is best for themselves without caring how it affects Puljujarvi.

    Letting him play out his career in Europe does absolutely zero for the Oilers though. Trading him for an early 2nd brings something back, even if that something doesn’t turn into a top-6 NHLer.

  48. BONE207 says:

    Actually…I believe we are tied for top spot…ha

  49. yeraslob says:

    Re: John Prine
    The Speed of the Sound of Loneliness – although I prefer the Kim Carnes version

  50. BONE207 says:

    What??? HH being right is blasphemy!
    The smoking man said the Buffalo Bills can’t win a Stupor Bowl & Woodguy said HH can’t be right. Case closed…ha

  51. dustrock says:

    hunter1909: Holland can always cover any bet by offering more money – then the cap kicks in and he’s fucked lol

    This is where the Kassian type of contracts make it tough.

  52. BONE207 says:

    He’s just cutting off his nose In Spite of Ourselves…

  53. BONE207 says:

    Well if we would have saved a million on Leon, we would be way further ahead…ha

  54. godot10 says:

    jp: Looks like it. Too bad.

    Not too surprising I guess if Oilers offer was $1M-$1.2M as reported. Supposedly he made more than that last year in the KHL (I heard $1.3M equivalent) and probably got an additional raise to stay closer to home.

    Escrow is likely to be 50% in the NHL next year. An offer of $1.2 million in cap dollars is not remotely that in real dollars.

    The nominal cap dollars in contracts are phony dollars for the foreseeable future. Flat cap, high escrow for a long loing time.

  55. godot10 says:

    Munny: This is probably the worst possible moment in timeto propose travel and leaving one’s homeland andextended family for the same money.

    It is not the same money. Slepyshev’s agent probably asked what escrow was going to be. A contract offer of $1.2 million is not $1.2 million actual dollars. It is $1.2 million less escrow. What will escrow be if the NHL is playing in empty buildings, which is likely.

  56. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Are you also up for cutting off your nose to spite your face?

    I have never understood that peculiar aphorism. In what manner does removing your nose cause your face to be spited?

    On the other hand refusing to lose 80% value on an investment because of actions by the investment tends to serve as a cautionary tale to future investments as well as offer hope for recovery of investment value in the future so the two situations are in no way comparable even if the parable of the nose and the face in some manner made sense.

    Which it does not. 😉

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Are you suggesting moving up to ensure not falling out of that top tier of players? 20 or 23 sound like good spots to me. A few teams always go off board, the Oilers are all but assured to have their pick of a few to tier guys left unless they go walkabout themselves.

    No, I’m suggesting that they should stay where they are as they are positioned to get a very good prospect as is.

    Subject of course to a “knock your socks off” or “no-brainer” deal….

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    Lets say there is a playoffs and Neal scores 2 more goals too reach 21. Is it in the trade memo that the 21 goals MUST in the regular season? If it doesn’t mention this,does this open a can of worms the phlegms can argue for the 3rd round pick.

    Its only regular season goals that count.

  59. jp says:

    I imagine Slepyshev’s KHL contract is subject to similar issues. Unless you believe Putin that Russia has coronavirus under control.

  60. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: It is not the same money.Slepyshev’s agent probably asked what escrow was going to be.A contract offer of $1.2 million is not $1.2 million actual dollars.It is $1.2 million less escrow.What will escrow be if the NHL is playing in empty buildings, which is likely.

    Taxes are also much higher in Canada.

  61. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Erik Haula has been a provisional 3C target of mine for a while.

    While I’d prefer a right hand shot for the centre I don’t see much available as a UFA outside of Spezza, and I’d I prefer Sheahan as 4C anyways.Reason I’d like to get at least one righty centre is for strong side draws.But it’s not an absolute for team success, as we saw this year when Haas wasn’t playing.

    I think he’d be looking for a bit of a raise from his current $2.75M but he’s got a history of signing shorter term (2-3 year) contracts at modest increases, so I doubt a 2-3-year $3-3.25M pact would be out of the realm of possibility.Especially in this post-Covid contract climate.He’s generally durable too, so even at 29 (this year) I wouldn’t be terribly worried to go a bit longer at a similar (or lower) AAV.

    My amateurish takeaway on his PK fancies is he had been used a lot earlier in his career in MIN then less so in VGK, then saw a surge again after trade this year.Relative to PK minute leaders in MIN he performed well vis a vis shot rates and goals against with a higher rate of OTF shifts than say Koivu and Clutterbuck.

    He seems like a really good target as far as I can see, in many many ways. I looked at some stuff last night, I’ll see if i can compile and post it this evening.

    My concern is he’s too expensive for the Oilers, I’m quite worried 3 x $3.25M wouldn’t be enough to get him from the open market (this is continuing to use current salary structure as a guideline, since we can’t predict exactly how it will change).

    Also, durability would be a concern for me. He missed all but the 1st 15 games of 18-19 with a nasty knee injury and an extended period this past Nov/Dec with a knee injury (not certain if they’re related, but probably). He only played 48 games this season. Still, seems like a great target (RHC aside) depending on price point.

  62. jp says:

    OK, definitely agreed then.

  63. PennersPancakes says:

    defmn: If I can’t get 80 cents on the dollar I just write him off and move forward.

    An early 2nd is 80 cents or more. Yes he is young but his decision making is extremely questionable on and off the ice. I see him as a 3rd line winger who is always 1 year away from putting it together until he retires.

    What is a trade youd be happy with to offload Pulju?

  64. jp says:

    I don’t think I’d have offered that much, but yeah he’d have been a great bet for anything under $1.5M.

  65. godot10 says:

    The KHL has escrow? I don’t think so.

  66. jp says:

    Yeah Kaliyev would have been a nice add, no question. We don’t know if Ottawa was receptive though. And agreed, Reichel looks like a great pick in the 2nd round.

  67. jp says:

    On Benning I’d guess a plus 3RD would be worth a late 2nd or early 3rd. But as I said him being only 1 year from UFA may drop his value a little from there. I may also be wrong.

    And on Puljujarvi, I’m not suggesting doing him any favours. Nor do I avoid dealing him as a punitive measure.

    I don’t really know what his actual value is. He could still be a plus top 6 winger, but that likely won’t happen. Maybe pick #33 is less 80% of his value, but IMO it’s also lot more than 20% of his value. If it really was only 20% then I might agree with letting him to stay in Finland indefinitely.

    Legit, completely useful NHL players are traded for 2nd and 3rd round draft picks all the time so I think pick #33 is relatively fair value for him.

  68. jp says:

    Probably not, I don’t know. But as far as I know KHL owners/teams/players are as susceptible to external economic forces than those in the NHL. Quite possibly more. What am I missing?

  69. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: Letting him play out his career in Europe does absolutely zero for the Oilers though. Trading him for an early 2nd brings something back, even if that something doesn’t turn into a top-6 NHLer.

    Don’t care. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than close off any possibility of getting 80 later on. I can find 20 cent pieces pretty easily.

  70. defmn says:

    PennersPancakes: An early 2nd is 80 cents or more. Yes he is young but his decision making is extremely questionable on and off the ice. I see him as a 3rd line winger who is always 1 year away from putting it together until he retires.

    What is a trade youd be happy with to offload Pulju?

    An early second is not 80 cents on a 4th overall imo. And, yes, I know his value has plummeted but that is what the Oilers paid for him.

    The only way I am interested in trading young Jesse is for a prospect in his early 20’s that is blocked on his current team.

    Otherwise I just let him figure out his own life. Again. No recriminations, no anger, no blame on the kid. He did what he wanted and thought best for himself.

    I just don’t care. This is business and I don’t want Holland or the Oilers paying for his decision.

  71. wolf8888 says:

    What are the taxes like in Russia for this kind of income?

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: I have never understood that peculiar aphorism. In what manner does removing your nose cause your face to be spited?

    On the other hand refusing to lose 80% value on an investment because of actions by the investment tends to serve as a cautionary tale to future investments as well as offer hope for recovery of investment value in the future so the two situations are in no way comparable even if the parable of the nose and the face in some manner made sense.

    Which it does not.

    So you’d rather lose 100% of the investment instead of 80%? And anyway, pick #33 isn’t 20% of Jesse’s value, unless you think his value is a #4 pick. It isn’t, and hasn’t been for several years.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    wolf8888:
    What are the taxes like in Russia for this kind of income?

    Russians making this kind of money don’t pay taxes, fool.

    j/k.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: Don’t care. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than close off any possibility of getting 80 later on. I can find 20 cent pieces pretty easily.

    Nobody is talking about selling for 20 cents on the dollar though!

  75. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: So you’d rather lose 100% of the investment instead of 80%? And anyway, pick #33 isn’t 20% of Jesse’s value, unless you think his value is a #4 pick. It isn’t, and hasn’t been for several years.

    The 20% and 80% was based upon the original purchase price. What the Oilers paid. I know it has changed but that is what we paid.

    If you buy stock at a dollar and it slowly decreases over time to 20 cents and you sell, guess what? You sold at 20 cents on the dollar.

    And you never lose the whole investment until you sell.

  76. PennersPancakes says:

    defmn: Otherwise I just let him figure out his own life. Again. No recriminations, no anger, no blame on the kid. He did what he wanted and thought best for himself.

    Survey says…… thats a lie.

    What 20 year old prospect blocked by their team would you like in return for him?

  77. PennersPancakes says:

    defmn: The 20% and 80% was based upon the original purchase price. What the Oilers paid. I know it has changed but that is what we paid.

    Its been 4 years since he was drafted, clinging onto his #4 draft position is like coworkers bragging about their GPA. Sure its cool but doesn’t mean shit.

    But yeah hold on to your stocks, you never lose till you sell. Just ask everyone who had shares in Blockbuster and Sears.

  78. pts2pndr says:

    I would still look for right shot centre but second priority would be left centre/left winger followed by right D with last priority being right wing.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    flyfish1168,

    I’ve never understood this.It is very straight forward in my mind, he either achieved the 21 goal mark during regular season play or he didn’t.When the season is over, no one can debate that he achieved 21 goals.All this woulda, coulda, shoulda was created by a Calgary Flames writer, not based at all on any facts.

    Apparently so many of us have felt so burned by losing draft picks for the Chia and TMac signings,-what an absolutely idiotic rule btw, that we expect we will again, eh?Kinda how it used to go with video reviews.We have Connor and Leon, those days are so done.

    He didn’t achieve the 21 goal mark during the season but, of course, the season didn’t complete.

    Of course, on the cut and dry terms of the trade condition, it didn’t vest but, of course, there are extenuating circumstances.

    I’m not saying the league should, or will, just pro rate things – there are issues with that as well – but i certainly understand why there could be discussion around mechanics related to conditions – for both trade, performance bonuses, etc. Those contract and trade terms were based on the assumption of an 82 game season and that’s not the case.

    I can envision a pure pro-rate and the 3rd goes to Calgary but i do think there will be conversations and discussions at high levels.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    jimmers2:
    I think this it is very likely that HH is right, at least for players on the margins of nhl rosters. Pandemic related problems could easily (probably) extend well into the next year, imagine living through that as a young man away from home and stuck in the AHL in some luckless place. I wondered if avoiding Bakersfield for these reasons might have been part of Berglund’s decision to sign at home, and there are worse places to be than Bakersfield. Then there is the economy.
    One has to think that Sleppy would have been a roster player but staying close to home and “safe” for a year or two doesn’t really seem like a crazy idea either.
    I would love to see Sleppy come back…

    I think Berglund signed a new SHL contract as a standard part of the business part of his career – he now has a 2 year contract in hand that doesn’t preclude him from signing with the Oilers and playing in North America. No reason not to sign in the SHL.

    With that said, there is quite a bit of verbal out there of the possibility of signing his ELC but staying in Sweden for one more season.

    I would hope he’d come over to North America to develop his game here but he could prefer to stay one more year (a) on the premise that he’d likely spend most time in the AHL where the max salary on an ELC is $70K (although he could get the max ELC signing bonus of $92.5K on top) or (b) as you state above, new world issues and wanting to stay at home.

    Either way, I sure hope Holland gets him under contract prior to June 1, no matter where he ends up playing next season, assuming there is a next season.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I think he’ll most likely be a solid NHLer, so yes mostly about him not coming back to Edmonton.

    The proposed trade involved pick #33 from Ottawa which seems like relatively high market value for Puljujarvi (talk has been he’d be gone already if anyone were offering a 1st, so #33 is the next best thing).

    Also a factor is Benning for the other 2nd (suggested to be #52 or 53). I like Benning lots but Tippett does not. And since he’s only under control for 1 more year I think a 2nd would be great value for him (my guess is he likely doesn’t fetch a 2nd on his own, hope I’m wrong).

    Putting it all together, also with the Oilers present lack of a 2nd and neither player being particularly needed for the lineup spot they’d likely fill with the Oilers, #33 and #52/53 seems like a good return IMO.

    I agree that Puljujarvi is likely to be, at least, a solid middle six winger in the NHL right away and still has solid potential to develop in to a top 6 guy.

    Under normal circumstances, a 2nd round pick for that player (with his pedigree and at his age) wouldn’t be enough but, of course, Puljujarvi’s circumstances are not “normal”.

    Even with him being one of the best player’s in Liiga last year, as a kid, I think that a very high 2nd round pick in is about as much as we can hope for in a trade. At the same time, I do think that Holland still wants a warm body that is further developed that a non-first round pick.

    If the 33rd overall pick is actually offered, I wonder if Holland would take it if the info is the same – Jesse won’t sign his QO and come to camp.

    —————

    On Benning – yup, Tippett really didn’t seem to want to give him more than 10-12 minutes of ice and I think Matty deserved more leash from the coach. I wonder if they just wanted to keep his minutes down because “he takes a beating” or if the coach simply doesn’t like his play as much as some of us do?

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    PennersPancakes: Survey says…… thats a lie.

    What 20 year old prospect blocked by their team would you like in return for him?

    Doesn’t have to be 20.

    I’ll give you an example…not suggesting this is a recommended action but rather how this might work.

    Vancouver has too many forwards and a few more on the way.

    Jake Virtanen is a former first round pick who is an arbitration eligible RFA.

    He is big, fast and a 15-20 goal scorer.

    Word is the Canucks might not want to accept an arbitrators decision and would look to move him.

    They might take a chance on JP instead of losing Virtanen for nothing.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Thanks for the response.

    There are many on this blog who seem to think Benning’s numbers make him a legit 2RD. I don’t see it myself but I think he is a plus 3RD. Is that not worth a late 2nd rounder?

    I don’t know, but if we drafted a third pairing dman in the late 2nd round after 3-4 years of development I think we would be pretty happy with that.

    Personally I don’t trade Puljujarvi for a draft pick. I let him play in Europe for the rest of his life if that is the best we can do.

    I know. It is the best draft year since 2012. We could get a good player at 33.

    I don’t care. I let him make his $200,000 a year in Finland for another year. If his value drops because of that I don’t care.

    So to sum up. I just don’t care.

    Puljujarvi is where he is because of decisions he made. He can get himself out of where he is the same way. I see no reason for the Oilers to help him out by agreeing to take 20 cents on the dollar. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than walk away from the 80.

    I say this without rancour. I hold no grudge over him doing what he thought was best for himself. Likewise I think the Oilers should do what is best for themselves without caring how it affects Puljujarvi.

    If I can’t get 80 cents on the dollar I just write him off and move forward.

    Firstly, its not about “helping Puljujarvi”, its about doing what’s best for the Oilers, in the short and/or medium and/or long term.

    Holland made the decision that, so far, what’s best for the Oilers is to not trade Puljujarvi for any of the offers received.

    Secondly, I would propose that the 33rd overall pick is not 20 cents on the dollar but likely damn close to 100 cents on the dollar. The value of that dollar has changed since 2016. I don’t think there is much chance that the value raises above what it currently is.

    I’m not saying trade Jesse for a high 2nd, I’m just saying, that’s not 20 cents on the dollar – his value has decreased massively since draft day.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    This guy does seem to know what he’s talking about with respect to European stuff:

    Aivis Kalniņš
    @A_Kalnins
    ·
    51m
    Slepyshev did mention today that he’s staying in Russia because it’s better for his family.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    The Oilers lose either way with this player. The organizational people that are partially to blame for the situation are no longer here. I believe that Holland had high hopes that JP would give him a chance. That was not the case so there is nothing to be gained by keeping JP. You move him for the greatest value you can. My only caveat is that he does not get moved in your own division. Moved to Ottawa for a high second round pick is probably the best you can do given the circumstances.

  86. jimmers2 says:

    Weird, eh?

    I know that if I was someone like Berglund or Sleppy, and doing ok in known circumstances, I’d be reluctant to move (let alone on a 2 way contract) into an even more uncertain situation. Discretion is the better part of valour and all of that.
    It is unfortunate now however things will look a bit different in a year or two.

  87. jake70 says:

    Sportsnet rewind has the Oilers-Pens on from March 1986. Gretzky vs. Lemieux.

    Ages in this game.
    Gretzky – 25
    Coffey – 24
    Kurri – 25
    Anderson – 25
    Messier – 25

    2 cups and 3 finals appearance by this time.

    Man.

    By today’s reffing, Gretzky would have had about 4 hooking penalties in the 10 min I’ve been watching. Lol.

  88. defmn says:

    PennersPancakes: Survey says…… thats a lie.

    What 20 year old prospect blocked by their team would you like in return for him?

    Are you calling me a liar?

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    yeraslob: This is where the Chaisson signing buggers things up.

    Not really – a 2 X $2.5M contract gets buggered up because, well, its not reasonable.

    Most of us seem to like Slepy and think he was a better player than his offensive numbers represented and think he would have been a good depth add with some upside. On the other hand, his prior NHL career is indeed what it is and a 2 month KHL heater isn’t quite enough of sample size (or a sample size in the right league) to warrant a risk contract with term.

    I’m not defending Chiassor or his contract but even if the Oilers had $2M of extra cap and one less on the 50, that’s still not a reasonable contract – in my opinion.

  90. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, its not about “helping Puljujarvi”, its about doing what’s best for the Oilers, in the short and/or medium and/or long term.

    Holland made the decision that, so far, what’s best for the Oilers is to not trade Puljujarvi for any of the offers received.

    Secondly, I would propose that the 33rd overall pick is not 20 cents on the dollar but likely damn close to 100 cents on the dollar. The value of that dollar has changed since 2016. I don’t think there is much chance that the value raises above what it currently is.

    I’m not saying trade Jesse for a high 2nd, I’m just saying, that’s not 20 cents on the dollar – his value has decreased massively since draft day.

    Answered all of these comments in subsequent posts.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Letting him play out his career in Europe does absolutely zero for the Oilers though. Trading him for an early 2nd brings something back, even if that something doesn’t turn into a top-6 NHLer.

    pts2pndr:
    The Oilers lose either way with this player. The organizational people that are partially to blame for the situation are no longer here. I believe that Holland had high hopes that JP would give him a chance. That was not the case so there is nothing to be gained by keeping JP. You move him for the greatest value you can. My only caveat is that he does not get moved in your own division. Moved to Ottawa for a high second round pick is probably the best you can do given the circumstances.

    I agree that the Oilers gain nothing by “letting him rot” in Europe year after year and I don’t think that’s what Holland plans on doing. Holland is doing what he thinks is best for the Oilers not being vindictive towards the player.

    Holland has a disposition value in mind for Jesse and has held out for a year now trying to get that value. Now, the value that Holland has in his mind may have to change.

    We don’t know exactly what that value is but we do know he preferred a developing player over a draft pick – maybe that has or will change.

    I would think, even though he wants a warm body, that Holland would indeed take the 33rd overall in this draft but, of course, that trade offer is simply our speculation. For all we know, Ottawa would have zero interest in that deal.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Escrow is likely to be 50% in the NHL next year.An offer of $1.2 million in cap dollars is not remotely that in real dollars.

    The nominal cap dollars in contracts are phony dollars for the foreseeable future.Flat cap, high escrow for a long loing time.

    This is a very good point.

    The cap will likely be set at an amount in the $81M to $83M range for the next 3-5-7 years.

    It will be an artificial number than won’t reflect 50% of HRR and the players will be be paying large escrow and having a material amount clawed back to made up for the lost $550MM (owners’ share of the projected $1.1B in lost revenue from this season) and the very likely decreased revenue for the next few seasons.

    Hopefully the US TV deal comes in as expected and, eventually, that cap will be artificially low and the owners will finalize their clawback and we can get on with an increasing cap based on real revenue projections.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Probably not, I don’t know. But as far as I know KHL owners/teams/players are as susceptible to external economic forces than those in the NHL. Quite possibly more. What am I missing?

    Of course they are subject to external economic forces but that doesn’t mean that they have a similar agreement to what the NHLPA and the League has.

    The reason for the large escrow and clawback of salaries is because the owners and the players negotiated a 50/50 split of “Hockey Related Revenue”.

    The cap each year is set at a projection of 50% of HRR but the players have a certain percent of each paycheque held back in escrow. If the actual HRR comes in below the projection, they will owe the owners some of that money held in escrow.

    The players right now are going to be receiving a hell of alot more than 50% of this year’s HRR and what they have in escrow won’t cover it. That is without even taking in to account projected lower HRR in the next few years.

    In order to keep the cap around $82M, the players are going to have to give more of their chequest back to the owners – they will be making the owners “whole” for this past year as well as for the next few years (where the cap will represent higher than 50% of HRR).

  94. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I would think, even though he wants a warm body, that Holland would indeed take the 33rd overall in this draft but, of course, that trade offer is simply our speculation. For all we know, Ottawa would have zero interest in that deal.

    And if he does then he starts all over again hoping he has a player who can help in 3 years.

    I get the argument that says you try and reclaim some value from a bad investment but I just don’t see enough value in a high 2nd rounder to get all that excited.

    You say its not 20 cents on the dollar? Lowetide just posted the Oilers record drafting in the second round for the last ten years. And, yeah, I know, this is supposed to be a superior crop but even in a good scenario the answer is 3 years down the road. I hold my cards for another year at least.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    Word on TSN radio in Vancouver of massive layoffs at TSN radio and TV across the country.

    Can’t find any details.

  96. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Word on TSN radio in Vancouver of massive layoffs at TSN radio and TV across the country.

    Can’t find any details.

    How are you doing out there on the island?

  97. godot10 says:

    One would have thought that 75% salary subsidy plan would work for Bell.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Don’t care. I’d rather do without the 20 cents than close off any possibility of getting 80 later on. I can find 20 cent pieces pretty easily.

    A 2nd it not 20 cents – its 80 cents, if not 100 cents of more.

    His 2016 draft day value does not represent his current value.

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: How are you doing out there on the island?

    Doing okay.

    Spent a big part of the day marveling at the amazing philology of ants.

    An ant climbed up on to the patio table we have on the deck.

    I flicked it off and watched it land on its feet despite the drop being at least 400 times its body height and then it toddled off without a care in the world.

    How the fuck do they do that?

    Am I going insane?

    Maybe…but I do have a few bottles of Shelter Point in the larder to ease the pain.

    You?

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: A 2nd it not 20 cents – its 80 cents, if not 100 cents of more.

    His 2016 draft day value does not represent his current value.

    Good grief.

    A top four pick has more value than three second round picks,

    Look it up.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: The 20% and 80% was based upon the original purchase price. What the Oilers paid. I know it has changed but that is what we paid.

    If you buy stock at a dollar and it slowly decreases over time to 20 cents and you sell, guess what? You sold at 20 cents on the dollar.

    And you never lose the whole investment until you sell.

    This isn’t the stock market and that isn’t how the NHL trade market works.

    Look at what David Backes was traded for – should the Bruins have held out for a return of a 30 goal scorer based on his 2010 season?

    Should the Leafs have got a better return on Patrick Marleau?

    No – values of hockey players increase and decrease over time and a trade return that was 20 cents on the initial Puljujarvi investment is likely 90 cents or 100 cents on the current investment.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    I think the sports world needs to start thinking about no fans or minimal fans in the crowds for the foreseeable future and go from there. Pick cities like Fargo and Minneapolis that don’t have many cases and place a division there, or pick two nearby cities.
    I don’t see this going away by fall unless we all get exposed by then

  103. pts2pndr says:

    What you say is true but your cost of living is on Canadian dollars and your wage is in American dollars which is a 30 to 40 % more than Canadian dollar so tax vs dollar amount vs cost of living close to a wash.

  104. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is a very good point.

    The cap will likely be set at an amount in the $81M to $83M range for the next 3-5-7 years.

    It will be an artificial number than won’t reflect 50% of HRR and the players will be be paying large escrow and having a material amount clawed back to made up for the lost $550MM (owners’ share of the projected $1.1B in lost revenue from this season) and the very likely decreased revenue for the next few seasons.

    Hopefully the US TV deal comes in as expected and, eventually, that cap will be artificially low and the owners will finalize their clawback and we can get on with an increasing cap based on real revenue projections.

    You really see the owners fronting the players that money?
    I dont.

  105. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Anyone thinking that the Oil can get a high 2nd in this draft for JP is delusional. Think Kaliyev/Lavoie or better. A trade would have been made long ago if that had been available.

    JP and his agent have systematically and completely destroyed his trade value. You might be able to get a mid to low 3rd, so JP’s trade value would effectively be the throw in pick on the Lucic/Neal trade. Sad but true.

    So I am in the DEFM camp on this. JP is welcome to come back, try and make the team, and prove he can be a useful everyday NHL player. Otherwise, enjoy Europe and best wishes going forward.

  106. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Erik Haula has been a provisional 3C target of mine for a while.

    BornInAGretzkyJersey says:
    January 19, 2020 at 6:39 pm
    Is Erik Haula a good bet for a UFA signing as 3C next year?
    Haven’t dug into the fancies but I recall him being a good skater and gritty.

    I’m interested in the player as a target too. I looked at most of what I’m going to post last night and was surprised in many cases. As I said earlier my biggest concern with this player would be whether the Oilers can afford him.

    He’s a LHC, UFA, just turned 29 years old and is coming off a deal that paid him $2.75M X 3 (off seasons of 34 and 26 points.

    1) LHC, but he does play C and is quite good on FOs. (for all this stuff I decided to look at the last 5 seasons, he played 1.5 before that I’m not showing)
    15-16 3rd on Min 53.3%
    16-17 3rd on Min 53.9%
    17-18 1st on Veg 50.5%
    18-19 7th on Veg 51.3% (only 15GP)
    19-20 4th on Car 54.1% (% also includes time on Fla)
    Good to excellent on faceoffs.

    TOI – EV – PP – PK
    15-16 10:52 0:06 1:49 (also 2:10 in 14-15)
    16-17 12:32 0:12 1:04
    17-18 14:26 2:25 0:32
    18-19 14:04 2:21 0:09 (15GP)
    19-20 12:41 2:19 0:45 (41GP Car/7GP Fla)
    He’s been generally a 3C (I guess more in Vegas) and played more on the PP than PK in recent years. Was a regular penalty killer in Minnesota for a couple of years though, and getting spot duty otherwise.

    5on5 P/60
    15-16 1.92
    16-17 1.58
    17-18 1.72
    18-19 1.82
    19-20 1.67
    Pretty consistently solid scoring rates.

    Penalty killing. For his career he’s averaged 1:12 per game. In total he’s been on the ice for 4.93 4v5 GA/60. That would have been top 5 among regular penalty killers over the past 3 seasons. His on ice shots against rates would also have been top 20 over the past 3 years.

    Fancy stats. He’s been around team average in SF% and GF% generally. DFF% has also been around team average. He was sheltered in Carolina (maybe just by being behind Aho and Staal) but has been over 30% TOI vs elites otherwise. Gets >50% OZ starts, but not extreme.

    Injuries
    I’d say a significant concern. A major knee injury ended his 18-19 season way early. Then he missed 15 straight (and I think a few other) games this year due to the same knee (in Nov/Dec). Otherwise he’s been healthy through his career.

    So… he brings offense, maybe too much for the role as 3C in Edmonton. Consistent even strength scorer. Good on faceoffs. Doesn’t PK a lot these days but has a history of it with strong results. History of playing mid-level competition with solid results (Sheahan played less than 30% TOI vs elites this year so Haula would be fine in that role). Injuries are a concern, but a healthy history aside from one major injury.

  107. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jtblack,

    How is his skating? What is his best attribute, in your opinion?

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: And if he does then he starts all over again hoping he has a player who can help in 3 years.

    I get the argument that says you try and reclaim some value from a bad investment but I just don’t see enough value in a high 2nd rounder to get all that excited.

    You say its not 20 cents on the dollar? Lowetide just posted the Oilers record drafting in the second round for the last ten years. And, yeah, I know, this is supposed to be a superior crop but even in a good scenario the answer is 3 years down the road. I hold my cards for another year at least.

    I’d prefer that player, a Benson, McLeod, Lavoie type talent added to the organization over, well, nothing.

    The value is almost certainly not going to get higher.

  109. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    His 2016 draft day value does not represent his current value.

    Nobody said it did. What I said is that we paid 100 cents and the proposed re-sale value is, in my estimation, about one fifth of that.

    Look at who the Oilers have drafted in the top part of the 2nd round and tell me I am that far off.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief.

    A top four pick has more value than three second round picks,

    Look it up.

    Interesting that about 6 people have posted the same premise that I just did but for some reason you aggressively call out my post.

    Of course, you didn’t understand the post.

    Sure, a 4th overall is worth more than multiple 2nd round picks – I won’t dispute that.

    Of course, at the same time, Puljujarvi’s current value is nowhere near that of a 4th overall pick.

    His current value is likely quite close to a higher 2nd round pick and hence, trading Puljujarvi for a 2nd round pick would not be taking 20 cents on the dollar.

    His draft day value is all but irrelevant – well, its probably relevant in that its keeping his value at a 2nd rounder and not a 3rd rounder.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: You really see the owners fronting the players that money?
    I dont.

    Yes, I do.

    I don’t see a massive cut to the cap when hockey returns.

  112. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Doing okay.

    Spent a big part of the day marveling at the amazing philology of ants.

    An ant climbed up on to the patio table we have on the deck.

    I flicked it off and watched it land on its feet despite the drop being at least 400 times its body height and then it toddled off without a care in the world.

    How the fuck do they do that?

    Am I going insane?

    Maybe…but I do have a few bottles of Shelter Point in the larder to ease the pain.

    You?

    Downtown Calgary isn’t quite the same without access to all the restaurants – which at my age is really what I care most about compared to the shopping or arts etc.

    But life could be much worse and not much better. I have a great view of the Rockies from my 25th floor as well as the Bow RIver and I have books I have been meaning to read forever. The frozen dim sum supply is stocked up and I don’t have to go to work.

    BTW I finally ploughed through that book on the philosophy of physics. I think I even understood most of it. 😉

    Ants are amazing to watch but I have never heard of them being interested in philology.

    Sorry, couldn’t resist since you sent it right down the middle of the plate. 😉

  113. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: This isn’t the stock market and that isn’t how the NHL trade market works.

    Look at what David Backes was traded for – should the Bruins have held out for a return of a 30 goal scorer based on his 2010 season?

    Should the Leafs have got a better return on Patrick Marleau?

    No – values of hockey players increase and decrease over time and a trade return that was 20 cents on the initial Puljujarvi investment is likely 90 cents or 100 cents on the current investment.

    Puljujarvi is 22 – not 35.

  114. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Interesting that about 6 people have posted the same premise that I just did but for some reason you aggressively call out my post.

    Of course, you didn’t understand the post.

    Sure, a 4th overall is worth more than multiple 2nd round picks – I won’t dispute that.

    Of course, at the same time, Puljujarvi’s current value is nowhere near that of a 4th overall pick.

    His current value is likely quite close to a higher 2nd round pick and hence, trading Puljujarvi for a 2nd round pick would not be taking 20 cents on the dollar.

    His draft day value is all but irrelevant – well, its probably relevant in that its keeping his value at a 2nd rounder and not a 3rd rounder.

    His current value is zero.

    He and the team pissed his value away.

    Recouping anything is questionable.

    Until someone steps up, nothing will happen and almost every team has an equal prospect in the pipeline.

    For example, the Canucks drafted Nils Hoglander in the second round.

    Not a chance they would trade him for JP.

    His value will be in finding a team that needs to move on from a player for whatever reason.

  115. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d prefer that player, a Benson, McLeod, Lavoie type talent added to the organization over, well, nothing.

    The value is almost certainly not going to get higher.

    And that’s fair. I just don’t care and can’t get excited about it. Not every calculation that results in a short term seeming gain is the right move in business. Sometimes you have to wait and see what else develops.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I do.

    I don’t see a massive cut to the cap when hockey returns.

    I think there’s going to be some owners asking for some money back this year

  117. defmn says:

    leadfarmer: I think there’s going to be some owners asking for some money back this year

    Don’t you think this will be negotiated by Gary and Don Fehr?

  118. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguys phone.

  119. who says:

    PennersPancakes: Its been 4 years since he was drafted, clinging onto his #4 draft position is like coworkers bragging about their GPA. Sure its cool but doesn’t mean shit.

    But yeah hold on to your stocks, you never lose till you sell. Just ask everyone who had shares in Blockbuster and Sears.

    I’m kinda with defmn on this.
    I’m not sure we are going to get 80 cents on the dollar though.
    I am glad Holland held out this year, and I hope JPs value has increased enough to cash him in this summer. But if the values not there, I see no harm in waiting another year. Especially when you consider how fucked up NHL business will be this summer.

  120. €√¥£€^$ says:

    What is Puljujarvi’s value?

    How about:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

    Fair? Favourite target/package here or what you have in mind?

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Nobody said it did. What I said is that we paid 100 cents and the proposed re-sale value is, in my estimation, about one fifth of that.

    Look at who the Oilers have drafted in the top part of the 2nd round and tell me I am that far off.

    The fact that a 2nd round pick is 1/5th of original value is irrelevant though.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    defmn: Don’t you think this will be negotiated by Gary and Don Fehr?

    Yes that’s why I disagree with OPs assessment of the players paying the owners back over the course of the next few years

  123. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    defmn: The 20% and 80% was based upon the original purchase price. What the Oilers paid. I know it has changed but that is what we paid.

    If you buy stock at a dollar and it slowly decreases over time to 20 cents and you sell, guess what? You sold at 20 cents on the dollar.

    And you never lose the whole investment until you sell.

    – I says pardon. This is right up my alley. I have no insight into what is really worth. But I’d bet a lot that if he was traded in isolation the return will end up less successful than Pool was/is/will be

    – In the investment world however, many people get hung up on the notion that “you only lose when you sell”. Take any Oil Company today: say vermillion. It’s down 80%.

    – A stubborn investor stuck in dogma would say “only if I sell then I lose”

    – A smart informed investor would say: if I take the 80% hit and reinvest this money into a company in a different sector, I’m much more likely to do better than simply holding on to an oil company whose prospects going forward are awful.

    – So in the case of pool:while I don’t think you can sell him and his replacement has a better chance of being as good. But if I realize that Pool is going to 0 (ie never going to play on my team) then I sell and recoup what I can.

  124. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I think the open market is really the biggest impediment to signing him, to be honest.

    Before his major injury he’d been really steady in playing games during prior seasons.

    He’s 29 now, I’d be willing to up the term if the AAV was on the low side of the equation. To wit, a 5-year deal wouldn’t be horrible, and a nominal front loaded salary raise with no trade protection wouldn’t prohibit moving him toward the end of the contract (barring a Ericksson/Lucic-like cliff).

    Or maybe I haven’t seen enough of him to have a nuanced view and he’s the next Ericksson/Lucic waiting to happen. Don’t see it though, and he’s not up for a max term high dollar contract. Kept reasonable, he should be able to move for assets at a later date.

  125. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    defmn,

    I’m not happy with the situation, either. But…

    Your stance neglects the pipeline and development impacts on other prospects.

    Honest question, what you trade for Sam Bennett?

    Sunk cost fallacy.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Puljujarvi is 22 – not 35.

    Are you suggesting his value is going to materially increase?

    He was one of the best players in Liiga this past season – his value is about as high its going to be without an NHL return. If he’s going to continue to refuse to play for the Oilers, I don’t see his value increasing any more in Europe.

  127. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: The fact that a 2nd round pick is 1/5th of original value is irrelevant though.

    Not irrelevant to my argument. If all Holland can get is a 2nd round pick – and I think that is high to be honest – then I just wait to see if it gets better since the downside at that point is so small I just don’t care.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: His current value is zero.

    He and the team pissed his value away.

    Recouping anything is questionable.

    Until someone steps up, nothing will happen and almost every team has an equal prospect in the pipeline.

    For example, the Canucks drafted Nils Hoglander in the second round.

    Not a chance they would trade him for JP.

    His value will be in finding a team that needs to move on from a player for whatever reason.

    That’s nice, but is odd that you are aggressively responding to me. I’m the one having a conversation with another and positing that Puljujarvi’s value is low.

    Really odd these responses.

    Of course, his value is not zero considering there have been assets offered for him but that is beside the point of you responding to me with responses that have nothing to do with my position on the conversation you are attempting to come in to.

  129. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I says pardon. This is right up my alley. I have no insight into what is really worth. But I’d bet a lot that if he was traded in isolation the return will end up less successful than Pool was/is/will be

    – In the investment world however, many people get hung up on the notion that “you only lose when you sell”. Take any Oil Company today: say vermillion. It’s down 80%.

    – A stubborn investor stuck in dogma would say “only if I sell then I lose”

    – A smart informed investorwould say: if I take the 80% hit and reinvest this money into a company in a different sector, I’m much more likely to do better than simply holding on to an oil company whose prospects going forward are awful.

    – So in the case of pool:whileI don’t think you can sell him and his replacement has a better chance of being as good. But if I realize that Pool is going to 0 (ie never going to play on my team) then I sell and recoup what I can.

    Yup. But Puljujarvi doesn’t get to zero value until he turns 27 and his value is unlikely to ever go below a third so I hold. Little downside at this point.

  130. Munny says:

    defmn: And that’s fair. I just don’t care and can’t get excited about it. Not every calculation that results in a short term seeming gain is the right move in business. Sometimes you have to wait and see what else develops.

    Just read the thread. I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

    Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

    Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way. Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

    Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken, That flinch could have massive consequences going forward. And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

    And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

    Patience is the key here… maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime. I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

  131. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    What kind of salary will JV likely fetch on a one year show-me and/or a multi-year deal?

  132. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Are you suggesting his value is going to materially increase?

    He was one of the best players in Liiga this past season – his value is about as high its going to be without an NHL return.If he’s going to continue to refuse to play for the Oilers, I don’t see his value increasing any more in Europe.

    Well, other than that there are better leagues in Europe I don’t disagree with that.

    But 21-22 year olds change their minds all the time so I don’t really care that he is still saying he won’t play for the Oilers.

    Given his current value I just wait. I can see how others would feel differently but I don’t really consider my position all that far out. I’m ready to lose the remaining value for a chance that I can get more value by being patient.

  133. defmn says:

    Munny: Just read the thread.I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

    Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

    Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way.Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

    Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken,That flinch could have massive consequences going forward.And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

    And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

    Patience is the key here…maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime.I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

    I think you summed up my position better than I did.

    BTW you might enjoy this.

    https://newdiscourses.com/2020/04/french-intellectuals-ruined-west-postmodernism-impact/

  134. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Terminal velocity.

  135. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Had.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Not irrelevant to my argument. If all Holland can get is a 2nd round pick – and I think that is high to be honest – then I just wait to see if it gets better since the downside at that point is so small I just don’t care.

    OK, its irrelevant to your argument but your argument is that an NHL general manager should always keep acquisition cost in mind when disposing of an asset which is, in my opinion, a terrible way to manage an NHL hockey team.

    What would you hold out for in a Larsson trade?

    Don’t forget, no, Puljujarvi’s trade value will not increase any more unless he plays NHL games which won’t happen until a trade is made (it appears).

  137. N64 says:

    Munny: Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken, That flinch could have massive consequences going forward. And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

    I used to beat on that exact drum on this question. Some first move that would have been, when Kenny took station, selling and buying like an Oilers GM, not the Grinder from other parts.

    I still look at it exactly this way.

    Do the kid a favor. Let him keep building his complete game. Next year is going to be strange. No rush to drag him from home for all of that. Let him overbake. If he proves that the Kraken should grab him, great. Otherwise 2021-22 he’ll be ready to blow off the doors at the Oil training camp WHEREVER that takes him by year end.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Yup. But Puljujarvi doesn’t get to zero value until he turns 27 and his value is unlikely to ever go below a third so I hold. Little downside at this point.

    Little upside as his value is unlikely to go higher than it is now after the season he just had.

  139. wolf8888 says:

    Very interesting link HH. Thanks. I guess it also will depend on which way the ruble goes though.

  140. N64 says:

    I don’t agree. He can’t establish NHL value with his first year of recovery. But this guy is a going to be nothing or an NHL 2nd liner. He can prove it to himself and everyone around him and that will bring him ultimately to Oil Camp or as a shortcut to the Kraken camp if he does what needs to be done in a hurry. Finland will be the right place for him next year.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Just read the thread.I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

    Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

    Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way.Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

    Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken,That flinch could have massive consequences going forward.And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

    And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

    Patience is the key here…maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime.I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

    Your second last paragraph is the key though – if that pick is available then Holland pulls the trigger – that’s wouldn’t be showing a lack of patience or blinking first it would be obtaining good value for the asset on the date of the trade.

  142. Munny says:

    This isn’t about Pujo’s trade value increasing. That isn’t going to happen. It’s about waiting for the right/better opportunity to arise (including giving Pujo the opportunity to come to his senses). They’re few and far between on any given player in any season. Patience. Especially since there’s no cost to waiting in the near term.

    And secondarily, it’s also about damaging all future negotiations going forward. It’s a horrible aphorism itself, but sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war.

  143. N64 says:

    The other way round. One year in that league was only going to prove that he’s a big fish in that pond.

    This is his year to Blossom. His trade value is a 3rd rounder now. There is upside here. Kid can prove he’s ready for top 6 time even over there. Takes longer there but that’s the right place for him to ripen.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64:
    I don’t agree. He can’t establish NHL value with his first year of recovery. But this guy is a going to be nothing or an NHL 2nd liner. He can prove it to himself and everyone around him and that will bring him ultimately to Oil Camp or as a shortcut to the Kraken camp if he does what needs to be done in a hurry. Finland will be the right place for him next year.

    I’m assuming he will refuse to sign a QO and come to camp – he has shown not signs of changing his mind.

  145. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Your second last paragraph is the key though – if that pick is available then Holland pulls the trigger – that’s wouldn’t be showing a lack of patience or blinking first it would be obtaining good value for the asset on the date of the trade.

    If that pick is available at the draft, a better pick will be available after the draft. Not because Pujo’s value has changed, but because the value of draft picks do.

    Edit: and since that didn’t happen last summer, obviously trading Pujo cannot obtain a low 30s pick at, or immediately preceding, the draft.

  146. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Little upside as his value is unlikely to go higher than it is now after the season he just had.

    What makes you so certain his value won’t go up if he plays in Finland next year.
    What if his point totals increase by 50%?
    Or do you think he’s reached his ceiling at 21?

  147. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m assuming he will refuse to sign a QO and come to camp – he has shown not signs of changing his mind.

    Do people show signs of changing their mind a year before changing their mind?

  148. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    who,

    JP didn’t leave NA hockey in good standing. he has shown no interest in returning. Any performance improvement (assuming it occurs) will be more than canceled by the perceived “flake” factor.

  149. wolf8888 says:

    OP, you don’t think it is possible for this young man to have a better year next year? What if he scores 20 more points and develops a better in close game? Wouldn’t he have more value? Of course he could also regress but I don’t see that he has necessarily topped out.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: If that pick is available at the draft, a better pick will be available after the draft.Not because Pujo’s value has changed, but because the value of draft picks do.

    Edit: and since that didn’t happen last summer, obviously trading Pujo cannot obtain a low 30s pick at, or immediately preceding, the draft.

    A pick after the draft, for a draft a year away, is less valuable than a pick for the current draft. 33 in the 2020 draft is more valuable for the Oilers than 29 in the 2021 draft.

    Puljujarvi’s value now is likely higher than it was a year ago due to his very good season for Karpat. Not being able to obtain a 2nd round pick a year ago doesn’t mean that is the case now.

    If its not higher now then there is essentially nothing he can do to raise his value from this point on so they should trade for current value.

  151. wolf8888 says:

    Why do you keep saying that? What is that based on?

  152. N64 says:

    That’s the player who’s more comfortable in Finland. Kenny’s waiting on the player with upside that’s outgrown Finland. Let him ripen. If the kids does it in a hurry the Kraken await. And that too is good value for the Oil.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: What makes you so certain his value won’t go up if he plays in Finland next year.
    What if his point totals increase by 50%?
    Or do you think he’s reached his ceiling at 21?

    His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

    A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

    Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

  154. N64 says:

    No? How about another year? How about more consistency? How about the 180 foot game now that he’s confident. How about outgrowing his current stage? How about looking at the Oil camp as a place to shine not shun?

  155. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

    A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

    Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

    Lots of players in North America show marked improvement from 21 to 22. And from 22 to 23 for that matter.
    Why can’t JP?
    I don’t know if he will, but if he does, his trade value should go up.

  156. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: A pick after the draft, for a draft a year away, is less valuable than a pick for the current draft. 33 in the 2020 draft is more valuable for the Oilers than 29 in the 2021 draft.

    Puljujarvi’s value now is likely higher than it was a year ago due to his very good season for Karpat. Not being able to obtain a 2nd round pick a year ago doesn’t mean that is the case now.

    If its not higher now then there is essentially nothing he can do to raise his value from this point on so they should trade for current value.

    I don’t agree with any of this. And your examples strike me as attempts to frame the issue, ie not accurate.

  157. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

    A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

    Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

    Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

    He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

    JP has none of this.

  158. jp says:

    Just trying to say that we can’t be sure Slepyshev or the other KHL players contracts/salaries are assured to be safe through the current economic upheaval. It likely won’t be escrow, but if KHL revenues are affected similarly to NHL revenues something has to give.

  159. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Truth.

  160. pts2pndr says:

    Holland has no reason to move JP unless he gets the value he has set for him. The lack of said value rests with his predecessor and JP. If Holland moves JP for less than full value and JP becomes the player everyone thought he would on draft day then Holland takes the heat. It is a conundrum.

  161. oilersfan says:

    The Liiga and Ahl are pretty much the same quality of league

    How is a 21 year old all star getting a point per game in the liiga somehow much worse than a 25 year old all star in the ahl?

    The 21 year old all star is better each and every time

    Also, I don’t agree he wouldn’t fetch a second

    If he was drafted by, say, Columbus, fourth overall, got .7 PPG as a 18 and 19 year old in the ahl, 1 PPg as a 20 year old in the ahl,(admittedly small sample) then 1 ppg as a 21 year old as an all star in the liiga , and wouldn’t go back to Columbus for unknown reasons, I would 1000% be excited about the possibility of the oilers trading a second round pick to Columbus for him. Many college players who are 22 and scores 1.5 ppg don’t do as well in the ahl as he did as an 18 year old. The hate for Jesse here is unfounded and unfair. A case of over hating a fan base’s own player ala Justin Schultz .

    For the same reason many of us want him to come back so would many teams trade a second for A prospect with those credentials ready to play right now rather than wait 5 years for him like most second rounders

  162. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    I think the open market is really the biggest impediment to signing him, to be honest.

    Before his major injury he’d been really steady in playing games during prior seasons.

    He’s 29 now, I’d be willing to up the term if the AAV was on the low side of the equation.To wit, a 5-year deal wouldn’t be horrible, and at a nominal front loaded salary raise with no trade protection wouldn’t prohibit moving him toward the end of the contract barring a Lucic-like cliff.

    Or maybe I haven’t seen enough of him to have a nuanced view and he’s the next Neal/Ericksson/Lucic waiting to happen.Don’t see it though, and he’s not up for a max term high dollar contract.Kept reasonable he should be able to move for assets at a later date.

    Yes, clearly the market is the main impediment. Looking at his scoring it looks like he should be getting $4M X 4 or something, maybe more. 55 points in Vegas, then 2 injury shortened years at 0.5 PPG.

    I was thinking he’s not so different from Nyquist, who got $5.5M X 4 at the same age. Turns out their scoring rates over 3 years leading up to UFA are identical at 0.62 PPG. Nyquist also had his best season as he turned UFA, and avoided major injury like Haula. Still, Haula won’t be cheap.

    I’m not sure the Oilers can afford it, or how high they should go on this player even if they can.. He could fill the role and more though.

  163. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    Thanks for this.

    Injury is more of a concern than I’d gathered after first glance.

    The potential fit is very high though.

    Seems like a strong candidate to play 3C and put up 30+ points for ~$3M the next few seasons… for nothing but money. One who can log his fair share of elite QoC, plus PK and PP minutes.

  164. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Why go down with the ship when you can cast off on one of these sparsely filled 1st class life rafts?

  165. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Can I ask why you rated the NJ and NYI prospects higher than the rest?

  166. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Yakupov was probably better. And he barely got a 3rd plus a contract.

    With Pete at the helm.

  167. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    100%

  168. Genjutsu says:

    Have you seen Connor play?

    Orr had the same.

    They don’t call penalties against the very best.

    It’s insane but it always has been.

    Same as it ever was.

  169. €√¥£€^$ says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I don’t, I rate them as lower due to them being older than the others in this group and not having had much of an NHL impact, although they are knocking on the door…

    NJ doesn’t have a 3rd rounder in 2020, so I added a second pick to the 4th rounder to “even” it out

  170. hunter1909 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    who,

    JP didn’t leave NA hockey in good standing. he has shown no interest in returning. Any performance improvement (assuming it occurs) will be more than canceled by the perceived “flake” factor.

    Wonderful.

    Please explain how this “worthless” player is all of a sudden worth acquiring by other teams?

    Because he’s getting put in the bargain bin by a sucker GM?

    Just a very Oilers thing to do.

  171. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn: An early second is not 80 cents on a 4th overall imo. And, yes, I know his value has plummeted but that is what the Oilers paid for him.

    The only way I am interested in trading young Jesse is for a prospect in his early 20’s that is blocked on his current team.

    Otherwise I just let him figure out his own life. Again. No recriminations, no anger, no blame on the kid. He did what he wanted and thought best for himself.

    I just don’t care. This is business and I don’t want Holland or the Oilers paying for his decision.

    Agreed

    I was thinking why does a top end third pair young RD, a rare player being RD, have such little value?

    Other teams get much more for worse players.

    Maybe is the wrong currency as you said. Trade in a package where value can be maximized or for prospects who have more track record to judge them by.

    Even second round picks have such low odds it’s like giving a player away.

    It’s one thing to clear cap or sell a fading player to a GM who lacks judgement and get something back.

    But trading good or talented players for so little is a team equity killer to me.

    The Oilers haven’t suffered even close to as much from poor picks or no picks from 2nd round down, as from whiffing on 2 1st rounders, not having one, or giving the players away for diddly squat.

  172. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

    He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

    JP has none of this.

    Inflammatory

  173. russ99 says:

    Assuming Puljujarvi is worth anything close to his original draft spot at this point is foolish.

    Many GMs in the league want little to do with him due to the petulance, agent posturing and the fact that he needs to sign an RFA contract to play in the NHL, and I’m sure his agent is going to want more than his ELC.

    Not to mention the lack of hockey sense on the ice and the language barrier and friction with NHL players, leading to a selfish player rep.

    He put up a nice amount of goals this season, that helps, but the other two factors are still there.

    Step in the shoes of another GM for a sec. Why would you give up a quality asset to acquire a player that may give you problems in negotiation and is iffy in an NHL locker room. Especially when moving that asset can get you a more sure thing without contract issues.

    Jesse is a reclamation project at this point, we should get what we can get and cut bait. Leaving him in Europe another 2 years until he becomes a UFA does nothing for the Edmonton Oilers.

    If Holland can get a second rounder for him, that’s a good move.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Lots of players in North America show marked improvement from 21 to 22. And from 22 to 23 for that matter.
    Why can’t JP?
    I don’t know if he will, but if he does, his trade value should go up.

    I only went back 7 years I think but it confirmed what I thought – the top scorers in Liiga are generally around 1 – 1.1 PPG (the top i saw was 1.18).

    I simply don’t see Jesse just blowing away the league scoring 80 points in the 60 games. I would hope he would continue to develop his overall game, etc. but would anticipate similar production – sure, maybe it would go up a bit but I don’t think he’d put up historic scoring numbers for the era.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I don’t agree with any of this.And your examples strike me as attempts to frame the issue, ie not accurate.

    That’s fine – you don’t have to agree with me.

    I think Jesse had a great year in Liiga and, if that didn’t serve to increase his value, I don’t think subsequent great years will. I think it has raised his value, how much, I don’t know. I don’t think there is much potential to raise it any more playing in that league.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

    He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

    JP has none of this.

    Again, not understand the post you are responding in at all.

    Strawman after strawman.

  177. defmn says:

    russ99:
    Assuming Puljujarvi is worth anything close to his original draft spot at this point is foolish.

    Many GMs in the league want little to do with him due to the petulance, agent posturing and the fact that he needs to sign an RFA contract to play in the NHL, and I’m sure his agent is going to want more than his ELC.

    Not to mention the lack of hockey sense on the ice and the language barrier and friction with NHL players, leading to a selfish player rep.

    He put up a nice amount of goals this season, that helps, but the other two factors are still there.

    Step in the shoes of another GM for a sec. Why would you give up a quality asset to acquire a player that may give you problems in negotiation and is iffy in an NHL locker room. Especially when moving that asset can get you a more sure thing without contract issues.

    Jesse is a reclamation project at this point, we should get what we can get and cut bait. Leaving him in Europe another 2 years until he becomes a UFA does nothing for the Edmonton Oilers.

    If Holland can get a second rounder for him, that’s a good move.

    I basically agree with all of this except the last paragraph. You have laid out all the reasons why I just don’t care what Holland does because the way things are he just isn’t important enough to worry or think about.

    If something happens – like a GM has a similar player or blocked player or thinks he has the key to make Jesse close to what he was on draft day then great.

    If not, who cares. I know I don’t. I just leave him where he is and move on. People getting all excited that he might, maybe, possibly get a high 2nd round pick if we package him with a young high end 3RD for a low 2nd round pick need to take a longer look at how long 2nd round picks take to develop imo.

    What was originally proposed is that a good 3RD and a good 3RW who are young and RFA be traded for magic beans that might grow into something 4-5 years from now.

    I think all of those who think he should be traded for ‘something’ have fallen prey to the myth of ‘asset management’. Anybody who has run businesses knows that sometimes bad calls just end up taking space in the back of the warehouse or a ledger line and aren’t worth worrying about. That is Jesse today. Maybe patience improves the situation. Maybe it doesn’t. The value is pretty well lost.

    I wish Jesse well. I’m just not interested in his career aspirations until he is worth the trouble. As of this proposal he is worth half of Athanasiou. And many of us think that is optimistic.

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: all the reasons why I just don’t care what Holland does because the way things are he just isn’t important enough to worry or think about.

    If not, who cares. I know I don’t.

    …says the guy with 30 posts on the topic.

    ?

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