I Knew The Bride (When she used to rock n roll)

by Lowetide

If it came down to one off-ice element of the game that I hold most dear, it would be the draft. It has always fascinated me, beginning in 1971. I had so many questions on draft day ’73, one of which took 20 years to answer: WHY did the Habs take Bob Gainey (22 goals in the OHA) while Rick Middleton (67 goals in the same league) was still on the board? Why?

And why, in the same draft, did the California Seals, the worst team on the planet, draft No. 34, while the Habs drafted four times before that spot in the draft? The draft has held my interest for a hockey lifetime and one of the joys of this spring, for me, is the progression toward another draft.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

CENTRAL

In the summer of 1975, the National Hockey League hired Jack Button as director of the Central Scouting Service. It has been called “bureau” from time to time and you often see CSS or CSB in print, but it’s all the same organization.

The July 1975 Hockey News: “NHL president Clarence Campbell said Button will be located in Montreal. Button, who is 36, will be preoccupied with developing and administering the NHL’s central scouting computer operation for all 18 teams. He will hire 8 scouts to work with him.”

Central’s list 2020

I always like to pick out a few players to discuss, my item at The Athletic this morning focuses on Jack Quinn. There are other interesting names.

Evan Vierling wasn’t ranked on the midterm, he was No. 66 on the final edition. He was traded (after requesting it) from Flint to Barrie and his NHLE with the Colts was 32.2. Playmaking center. I think the OHL has a strong crop this year.

Jack Finley is a 6.06 center who moved up to No. 38, he’s a player I’ve identified as being worth a second (have him at 50 on my list) and now I wonder if he could slide into the late second of the first round. Big centers are valuable, especially if there’s some skill.

Jake Neighbours of the Edmonton Oil Kings landed at No. 26, that suggests he’ll land 33-40 on draft day. Oilers don’t have a second round selection but his range and NHLE (27.1) puts him just a little ahead of Tyler Benson (23.1) on his draft day.

Anton Johannesson is a 5.09, 144 defenseman who plays in the Swedish juniors. He moved up from 49 to 31. He must be an exceptional talent.

PICKS

I think Holland will add a pick or two and expect two of the first three prospects will be forwards. In the coming days, I’ll be drilling down on these names and will have a top 100 for the draft by the end of April.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Long weekend straight ahead, nice day too, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports joins us to talk about the Oilers season and assessing it as a completion of the year (no playoffs, no Stanley). Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will pop in at 10:40 to talk Central list and the 2020 draft. Matt Iwanyk pops in to discuss NFL draft, CFL draft and how Alberta is doing in the battle against COVID-19. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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ArmchairGM

defmn: all the reasons why I just don’t care what Holland does because the way things are he just isn’t important enough to worry or think about.

If not, who cares. I know I don’t.

…says the guy with 30 posts on the topic.

?

defmn

russ99:
Assuming Puljujarvi is worth anything close to his original draft spot at this point is foolish.

Many GMs in the league want little to do with him due to the petulance, agent posturing and the fact that he needs to sign an RFA contract to play in the NHL, and I’m sure his agent is going to want more than his ELC.

Not to mention the lack of hockey sense on the ice and the language barrier and friction with NHL players, leading to a selfish player rep.

He put up a nice amount of goals this season, that helps, but the other two factors are still there.

Step in the shoes of another GM for a sec. Why would you give up a quality asset to acquire a player that may give you problems in negotiation and is iffy in an NHL locker room. Especially when moving that asset can get you a more sure thing without contract issues.

Jesse is a reclamation project at this point, we should get what we can get and cut bait. Leaving him in Europe another 2 years until he becomes a UFA does nothing for the Edmonton Oilers.

If Holland can get a second rounder for him, that’s a good move.

I basically agree with all of this except the last paragraph. You have laid out all the reasons why I just don’t care what Holland does because the way things are he just isn’t important enough to worry or think about.

If something happens – like a GM has a similar player or blocked player or thinks he has the key to make Jesse close to what he was on draft day then great.

If not, who cares. I know I don’t. I just leave him where he is and move on. People getting all excited that he might, maybe, possibly get a high 2nd round pick if we package him with a young high end 3RD for a low 2nd round pick need to take a longer look at how long 2nd round picks take to develop imo.

What was originally proposed is that a good 3RD and a good 3RW who are young and RFA be traded for magic beans that might grow into something 4-5 years from now.

I think all of those who think he should be traded for ‘something’ have fallen prey to the myth of ‘asset management’. Anybody who has run businesses knows that sometimes bad calls just end up taking space in the back of the warehouse or a ledger line and aren’t worth worrying about. That is Jesse today. Maybe patience improves the situation. Maybe it doesn’t. The value is pretty well lost.

I wish Jesse well. I’m just not interested in his career aspirations until he is worth the trouble. As of this proposal he is worth half of Athanasiou. And many of us think that is optimistic.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

JP has none of this.

Again, not understand the post you are responding in at all.

Strawman after strawman.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: I don’t agree with any of this.And your examples strike me as attempts to frame the issue, ie not accurate.

That’s fine – you don’t have to agree with me.

I think Jesse had a great year in Liiga and, if that didn’t serve to increase his value, I don’t think subsequent great years will. I think it has raised his value, how much, I don’t know. I don’t think there is much potential to raise it any more playing in that league.

OriginalPouzar

who: Lots of players in North America show marked improvement from 21 to 22. And from 22 to 23 for that matter.
Why can’t JP?
I don’t know if he will, but if he does, his trade value should go up.

I only went back 7 years I think but it confirmed what I thought – the top scorers in Liiga are generally around 1 – 1.1 PPG (the top i saw was 1.18).

I simply don’t see Jesse just blowing away the league scoring 80 points in the 60 games. I would hope he would continue to develop his overall game, etc. but would anticipate similar production – sure, maybe it would go up a bit but I don’t think he’d put up historic scoring numbers for the era.

russ99

Assuming Puljujarvi is worth anything close to his original draft spot at this point is foolish.

Many GMs in the league want little to do with him due to the petulance, agent posturing and the fact that he needs to sign an RFA contract to play in the NHL, and I’m sure his agent is going to want more than his ELC.

Not to mention the lack of hockey sense on the ice and the language barrier and friction with NHL players, leading to a selfish player rep.

He put up a nice amount of goals this season, that helps, but the other two factors are still there.

Step in the shoes of another GM for a sec. Why would you give up a quality asset to acquire a player that may give you problems in negotiation and is iffy in an NHL locker room. Especially when moving that asset can get you a more sure thing without contract issues.

Jesse is a reclamation project at this point, we should get what we can get and cut bait. Leaving him in Europe another 2 years until he becomes a UFA does nothing for the Edmonton Oilers.

If Holland can get a second rounder for him, that’s a good move.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

JP has none of this.

Inflammatory

Scungilli Slushy

defmn: An early second is not 80 cents on a 4th overall imo. And, yes, I know his value has plummeted but that is what the Oilers paid for him.

The only way I am interested in trading young Jesse is for a prospect in his early 20’s that is blocked on his current team.

Otherwise I just let him figure out his own life. Again. No recriminations, no anger, no blame on the kid. He did what he wanted and thought best for himself.

I just don’t care. This is business and I don’t want Holland or the Oilers paying for his decision.

Agreed

I was thinking why does a top end third pair young RD, a rare player being RD, have such little value?

Other teams get much more for worse players.

Maybe is the wrong currency as you said. Trade in a package where value can be maximized or for prospects who have more track record to judge them by.

Even second round picks have such low odds it’s like giving a player away.

It’s one thing to clear cap or sell a fading player to a GM who lacks judgement and get something back.

But trading good or talented players for so little is a team equity killer to me.

The Oilers haven’t suffered even close to as much from poor picks or no picks from 2nd round down, as from whiffing on 2 1st rounders, not having one, or giving the players away for diddly squat.

hunter1909

Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
who,

JP didn’t leave NA hockey in good standing. he has shown no interest in returning. Any performance improvement (assuming it occurs) will be more than canceled by the perceived “flake” factor.

Wonderful.

Please explain how this “worthless” player is all of a sudden worth acquiring by other teams?

Because he’s getting put in the bargain bin by a sucker GM?

Just a very Oilers thing to do.

€√¥£€^$

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

I don’t, I rate them as lower due to them being older than the others in this group and not having had much of an NHL impact, although they are knocking on the door…

NJ doesn’t have a 3rd rounder in 2020, so I added a second pick to the 4th rounder to “even” it out

BornInAGretzkyJersey

€√¥£€^$,

Can I ask why you rated the NJ and NYI prospects higher than the rest?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

Thanks for this.

Injury is more of a concern than I’d gathered after first glance.

The potential fit is very high though.

Seems like a strong candidate to play 3C and put up 30+ points for ~$3M the next few seasons… for nothing but money. One who can log his fair share of elite QoC, plus PK and PP minutes.

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jp,

I think the open market is really the biggest impediment to signing him, to be honest.

Before his major injury he’d been really steady in playing games during prior seasons.

He’s 29 now, I’d be willing to up the term if the AAV was on the low side of the equation.To wit, a 5-year deal wouldn’t be horrible, and at a nominal front loaded salary raise with no trade protection wouldn’t prohibit moving him toward the end of the contract barring a Lucic-like cliff.

Or maybe I haven’t seen enough of him to have a nuanced view and he’s the next Neal/Ericksson/Lucic waiting to happen.Don’t see it though, and he’s not up for a max term high dollar contract.Kept reasonable he should be able to move for assets at a later date.

Yes, clearly the market is the main impediment. Looking at his scoring it looks like he should be getting $4M X 4 or something, maybe more. 55 points in Vegas, then 2 injury shortened years at 0.5 PPG.

I was thinking he’s not so different from Nyquist, who got $5.5M X 4 at the same age. Turns out their scoring rates over 3 years leading up to UFA are identical at 0.62 PPG. Nyquist also had his best season as he turned UFA, and avoided major injury like Haula. Still, Haula won’t be cheap.

I’m not sure the Oilers can afford it, or how high they should go on this player even if they can.. He could fill the role and more though.

oilersfan

The Liiga and Ahl are pretty much the same quality of league

How is a 21 year old all star getting a point per game in the liiga somehow much worse than a 25 year old all star in the ahl?

The 21 year old all star is better each and every time

Also, I don’t agree he wouldn’t fetch a second

If he was drafted by, say, Columbus, fourth overall, got .7 PPG as a 18 and 19 year old in the ahl, 1 PPg as a 20 year old in the ahl,(admittedly small sample) then 1 ppg as a 21 year old as an all star in the liiga , and wouldn’t go back to Columbus for unknown reasons, I would 1000% be excited about the possibility of the oilers trading a second round pick to Columbus for him. Many college players who are 22 and scores 1.5 ppg don’t do as well in the ahl as he did as an 18 year old. The hate for Jesse here is unfounded and unfair. A case of over hating a fan base’s own player ala Justin Schultz .

For the same reason many of us want him to come back so would many teams trade a second for A prospect with those credentials ready to play right now rather than wait 5 years for him like most second rounders

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

Brogan Rafferty doesn’t have “potential”

He’s an AHL All Star with a clear path to an NHL job.

JP has none of this.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Truth.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: A pick after the draft, for a draft a year away, is less valuable than a pick for the current draft. 33 in the 2020 draft is more valuable for the Oilers than 29 in the 2021 draft.

Puljujarvi’s value now is likely higher than it was a year ago due to his very good season for Karpat. Not being able to obtain a 2nd round pick a year ago doesn’t mean that is the case now.

If its not higher now then there is essentially nothing he can do to raise his value from this point on so they should trade for current value.

I don’t agree with any of this. And your examples strike me as attempts to frame the issue, ie not accurate.

who

OriginalPouzar: His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

Lots of players in North America show marked improvement from 21 to 22. And from 22 to 23 for that matter.
Why can’t JP?
I don’t know if he will, but if he does, his trade value should go up.

OriginalPouzar

who: What makes you so certain his value won’t go up if he plays in Finland next year.
What if his point totals increase by 50%?
Or do you think he’s reached his ceiling at 21?

His point totals could go up but I wouldn’t think they would spike markedly and i think any sort of increase in points would be mitigated by the fact the he’s a year older.

A 22 year old being a top scorer isn’t quite a good as a 21 year old being a top scorer, for example.

Pretty soon we’re talking Brogan Rafferty potential.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: If that pick is available at the draft, a better pick will be available after the draft.Not because Pujo’s value has changed, but because the value of draft picks do.

Edit: and since that didn’t happen last summer, obviously trading Pujo cannot obtain a low 30s pick at, or immediately preceding, the draft.

A pick after the draft, for a draft a year away, is less valuable than a pick for the current draft. 33 in the 2020 draft is more valuable for the Oilers than 29 in the 2021 draft.

Puljujarvi’s value now is likely higher than it was a year ago due to his very good season for Karpat. Not being able to obtain a 2nd round pick a year ago doesn’t mean that is the case now.

If its not higher now then there is essentially nothing he can do to raise his value from this point on so they should trade for current value.

N64

No? How about another year? How about more consistency? How about the 180 foot game now that he’s confident. How about outgrowing his current stage? How about looking at the Oil camp as a place to shine not shun?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

who,

JP didn’t leave NA hockey in good standing. he has shown no interest in returning. Any performance improvement (assuming it occurs) will be more than canceled by the perceived “flake” factor.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: I’m assuming he will refuse to sign a QO and come to camp – he has shown not signs of changing his mind.

Do people show signs of changing their mind a year before changing their mind?

who

OriginalPouzar: Little upside as his value is unlikely to go higher than it is now after the season he just had.

What makes you so certain his value won’t go up if he plays in Finland next year.
What if his point totals increase by 50%?
Or do you think he’s reached his ceiling at 21?

Munny

OriginalPouzar: Your second last paragraph is the key though – if that pick is available then Holland pulls the trigger – that’s wouldn’t be showing a lack of patience or blinking first it would be obtaining good value for the asset on the date of the trade.

If that pick is available at the draft, a better pick will be available after the draft. Not because Pujo’s value has changed, but because the value of draft picks do.

Edit: and since that didn’t happen last summer, obviously trading Pujo cannot obtain a low 30s pick at, or immediately preceding, the draft.

OriginalPouzar

N64:
I don’t agree. He can’t establish NHL value with his first year of recovery. But this guy is a going to be nothing or an NHL 2nd liner. He can prove it to himself and everyone around him and that will bring him ultimately to Oil Camp or as a shortcut to the Kraken camp if he does what needs to be done in a hurry. Finland will be the right place for him next year.

I’m assuming he will refuse to sign a QO and come to camp – he has shown not signs of changing his mind.

N64

That’s the player who’s more comfortable in Finland. Kenny’s waiting on the player with upside that’s outgrown Finland. Let him ripen. If the kids does it in a hurry the Kraken await. And that too is good value for the Oil.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: Just read the thread.I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way.Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken,That flinch could have massive consequences going forward.And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

Patience is the key here…maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime.I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

Your second last paragraph is the key though – if that pick is available then Holland pulls the trigger – that’s wouldn’t be showing a lack of patience or blinking first it would be obtaining good value for the asset on the date of the trade.

pts2pndr

Holland has no reason to move JP unless he gets the value he has set for him. The lack of said value rests with his predecessor and JP. If Holland moves JP for less than full value and JP becomes the player everyone thought he would on draft day then Holland takes the heat. It is a conundrum.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Yup. But Puljujarvi doesn’t get to zero value until he turns 27 and his value is unlikely to ever go below a third so I hold. Little downside at this point.

Little upside as his value is unlikely to go higher than it is now after the season he just had.

N64

The other way round. One year in that league was only going to prove that he’s a big fish in that pond.

This is his year to Blossom. His trade value is a 3rd rounder now. There is upside here. Kid can prove he’s ready for top 6 time even over there. Takes longer there but that’s the right place for him to ripen.

wolf8888

Why do you keep saying that? What is that based on?

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Not irrelevant to my argument. If all Holland can get is a 2nd round pick – and I think that is high to be honest – then I just wait to see if it gets better since the downside at that point is so small I just don’t care.

OK, its irrelevant to your argument but your argument is that an NHL general manager should always keep acquisition cost in mind when disposing of an asset which is, in my opinion, a terrible way to manage an NHL hockey team.

What would you hold out for in a Larsson trade?

Don’t forget, no, Puljujarvi’s trade value will not increase any more unless he plays NHL games which won’t happen until a trade is made (it appears).

N64

I don’t agree. He can’t establish NHL value with his first year of recovery. But this guy is a going to be nothing or an NHL 2nd liner. He can prove it to himself and everyone around him and that will bring him ultimately to Oil Camp or as a shortcut to the Kraken camp if he does what needs to be done in a hurry. Finland will be the right place for him next year.

Munny

This isn’t about Pujo’s trade value increasing. That isn’t going to happen. It’s about waiting for the right/better opportunity to arise (including giving Pujo the opportunity to come to his senses). They’re few and far between on any given player in any season. Patience. Especially since there’s no cost to waiting in the near term.

And secondarily, it’s also about damaging all future negotiations going forward. It’s a horrible aphorism itself, but sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harpers Hair,

Terminal velocity.

defmn

Munny: Just read the thread.I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way.Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken,That flinch could have massive consequences going forward.And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

Patience is the key here…maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime.I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

I think you summed up my position better than I did.

BTW you might enjoy this.

https://newdiscourses.com/2020/04/french-intellectuals-ruined-west-postmodernism-impact/

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Are you suggesting his value is going to materially increase?

He was one of the best players in Liiga this past season – his value is about as high its going to be without an NHL return.If he’s going to continue to refuse to play for the Oilers, I don’t see his value increasing any more in Europe.

Well, other than that there are better leagues in Europe I don’t disagree with that.

But 21-22 year olds change their minds all the time so I don’t really care that he is still saying he won’t play for the Oilers.

Given his current value I just wait. I can see how others would feel differently but I don’t really consider my position all that far out. I’m ready to lose the remaining value for a chance that I can get more value by being patient.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harpers Hair,

What kind of salary will JV likely fetch on a one year show-me and/or a multi-year deal?

Munny

defmn: And that’s fair. I just don’t care and can’t get excited about it. Not every calculation that results in a short term seeming gain is the right move in business. Sometimes you have to wait and see what else develops.

Just read the thread. I’m with your POV on this one and it has been my stance since the get-go.

Fans are famously more impatient than organizations, unsurprisingly so of course… who doesn’t like a shiny new toy when one’s missing from the box?

Fortunately, thus far Holland has been seeing things the same patient way. Trading an actual NHL player who is still young and an RFA for a lottery ticket is not the right play.

Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken, That flinch could have massive consequences going forward. And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

And finally I think those that think Pujo can garner a pick in the low 30s at the exact time of the year when draft picks are over-valued are smoking something.

Patience is the key here… maintain ties and openness with the Pujo camp…. see if you can fit him into a larger deal or find a fit with a team in a similar situation in the meantime. I don’t know if he could pull better than a 3rd right now and I personally just wouldn’t be interested in that action.

N64

Munny: Nor does Holland want to be known as the guy who will blink first in a game of chicken, That flinch could have massive consequences going forward. And exactly the kind of behaviour the org is trying to move away from.

I used to beat on that exact drum on this question. Some first move that would have been, when Kenny took station, selling and buying like an Oilers GM, not the Grinder from other parts.

I still look at it exactly this way.

Do the kid a favor. Let him keep building his complete game. Next year is going to be strange. No rush to drag him from home for all of that. Let him overbake. If he proves that the Kraken should grab him, great. Otherwise 2021-22 he’ll be ready to blow off the doors at the Oil training camp WHEREVER that takes him by year end.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

100%

defmn

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I says pardon. This is right up my alley. I have no insight into what is really worth. But I’d bet a lot that if he was traded in isolation the return will end up less successful than Pool was/is/will be

– In the investment world however, many people get hung up on the notion that “you only lose when you sell”. Take any Oil Company today: say vermillion. It’s down 80%.

– A stubborn investor stuck in dogma would say “only if I sell then I lose”

– A smart informed investorwould say: if I take the 80% hit and reinvest this money into a company in a different sector, I’m much more likely to do better than simply holding on to an oil company whose prospects going forward are awful.

– So in the case of pool:whileI don’t think you can sell him and his replacement has a better chance of being as good. But if I realize that Pool is going to 0 (ie never going to play on my team) then I sell and recoup what I can.

Yup. But Puljujarvi doesn’t get to zero value until he turns 27 and his value is unlikely to ever go below a third so I hold. Little downside at this point.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yakupov was probably better. And he barely got a 3rd plus a contract.

With Pete at the helm.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: His current value is zero.

He and the team pissed his value away.

Recouping anything is questionable.

Until someone steps up, nothing will happen and almost every team has an equal prospect in the pipeline.

For example, the Canucks drafted Nils Hoglander in the second round.

Not a chance they would trade him for JP.

His value will be in finding a team that needs to move on from a player for whatever reason.

That’s nice, but is odd that you are aggressively responding to me. I’m the one having a conversation with another and positing that Puljujarvi’s value is low.

Really odd these responses.

Of course, his value is not zero considering there have been assets offered for him but that is beside the point of you responding to me with responses that have nothing to do with my position on the conversation you are attempting to come in to.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: The fact that a 2nd round pick is 1/5th of original value is irrelevant though.

Not irrelevant to my argument. If all Holland can get is a 2nd round pick – and I think that is high to be honest – then I just wait to see if it gets better since the downside at that point is so small I just don’t care.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Puljujarvi is 22 – not 35.

Are you suggesting his value is going to materially increase?

He was one of the best players in Liiga this past season – his value is about as high its going to be without an NHL return. If he’s going to continue to refuse to play for the Oilers, I don’t see his value increasing any more in Europe.

wolf8888

OP, you don’t think it is possible for this young man to have a better year next year? What if he scores 20 more points and develops a better in close game? Wouldn’t he have more value? Of course he could also regress but I don’t see that he has necessarily topped out.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

defmn,

I’m not happy with the situation, either. But…

Your stance neglects the pipeline and development impacts on other prospects.

Honest question, what you trade for Sam Bennett?

Sunk cost fallacy.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

I think the open market is really the biggest impediment to signing him, to be honest.

Before his major injury he’d been really steady in playing games during prior seasons.

He’s 29 now, I’d be willing to up the term if the AAV was on the low side of the equation. To wit, a 5-year deal wouldn’t be horrible, and a nominal front loaded salary raise with no trade protection wouldn’t prohibit moving him toward the end of the contract (barring a Ericksson/Lucic-like cliff).

Or maybe I haven’t seen enough of him to have a nuanced view and he’s the next Ericksson/Lucic waiting to happen. Don’t see it though, and he’s not up for a max term high dollar contract. Kept reasonable, he should be able to move for assets at a later date.

Kinger_Oil.redux

defmn: The 20% and 80% was based upon the original purchase price. What the Oilers paid. I know it has changed but that is what we paid.

If you buy stock at a dollar and it slowly decreases over time to 20 cents and you sell, guess what? You sold at 20 cents on the dollar.

And you never lose the whole investment until you sell.

– I says pardon. This is right up my alley. I have no insight into what is really worth. But I’d bet a lot that if he was traded in isolation the return will end up less successful than Pool was/is/will be

– In the investment world however, many people get hung up on the notion that “you only lose when you sell”. Take any Oil Company today: say vermillion. It’s down 80%.

– A stubborn investor stuck in dogma would say “only if I sell then I lose”

– A smart informed investor would say: if I take the 80% hit and reinvest this money into a company in a different sector, I’m much more likely to do better than simply holding on to an oil company whose prospects going forward are awful.

– So in the case of pool:while I don’t think you can sell him and his replacement has a better chance of being as good. But if I realize that Pool is going to 0 (ie never going to play on my team) then I sell and recoup what I can.

leadfarmer

defmn: Don’t you think this will be negotiated by Gary and Don Fehr?

Yes that’s why I disagree with OPs assessment of the players paying the owners back over the course of the next few years

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Nobody said it did. What I said is that we paid 100 cents and the proposed re-sale value is, in my estimation, about one fifth of that.

Look at who the Oilers have drafted in the top part of the 2nd round and tell me I am that far off.

The fact that a 2nd round pick is 1/5th of original value is irrelevant though.

€√¥£€^$

What is Puljujarvi’s value?

How about:

NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

Fair? Favourite target/package here or what you have in mind?

who

PennersPancakes: Its been 4 years since he was drafted, clinging onto his #4 draft position is like coworkers bragging about their GPA. Sure its cool but doesn’t mean shit.

But yeah hold on to your stocks, you never lose till you sell. Just ask everyone who had shares in Blockbuster and Sears.

I’m kinda with defmn on this.
I’m not sure we are going to get 80 cents on the dollar though.
I am glad Holland held out this year, and I hope JPs value has increased enough to cash him in this summer. But if the values not there, I see no harm in waiting another year. Especially when you consider how fucked up NHL business will be this summer.

defmn

leadfarmer: I think there’s going to be some owners asking for some money back this year

Don’t you think this will be negotiated by Gary and Don Fehr?

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Yes, I do.

I don’t see a massive cut to the cap when hockey returns.

I think there’s going to be some owners asking for some money back this year

defmn

OriginalPouzar: I’d prefer that player, a Benson, McLeod, Lavoie type talent added to the organization over, well, nothing.

The value is almost certainly not going to get higher.

And that’s fair. I just don’t care and can’t get excited about it. Not every calculation that results in a short term seeming gain is the right move in business. Sometimes you have to wait and see what else develops.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Interesting that about 6 people have posted the same premise that I just did but for some reason you aggressively call out my post.

Of course, you didn’t understand the post.

Sure, a 4th overall is worth more than multiple 2nd round picks – I won’t dispute that.

Of course, at the same time, Puljujarvi’s current value is nowhere near that of a 4th overall pick.

His current value is likely quite close to a higher 2nd round pick and hence, trading Puljujarvi for a 2nd round pick would not be taking 20 cents on the dollar.

His draft day value is all but irrelevant – well, its probably relevant in that its keeping his value at a 2nd rounder and not a 3rd rounder.

His current value is zero.

He and the team pissed his value away.

Recouping anything is questionable.

Until someone steps up, nothing will happen and almost every team has an equal prospect in the pipeline.

For example, the Canucks drafted Nils Hoglander in the second round.

Not a chance they would trade him for JP.

His value will be in finding a team that needs to move on from a player for whatever reason.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: This isn’t the stock market and that isn’t how the NHL trade market works.

Look at what David Backes was traded for – should the Bruins have held out for a return of a 30 goal scorer based on his 2010 season?

Should the Leafs have got a better return on Patrick Marleau?

No – values of hockey players increase and decrease over time and a trade return that was 20 cents on the initial Puljujarvi investment is likely 90 cents or 100 cents on the current investment.

Puljujarvi is 22 – not 35.

defmn

Harpers Hair: Doing okay.

Spent a big part of the day marveling at the amazing philology of ants.

An ant climbed up on to the patio table we have on the deck.

I flicked it off and watched it land on its feet despite the drop being at least 400 times its body height and then it toddled off without a care in the world.

How the fuck do they do that?

Am I going insane?

Maybe…but I do have a few bottles of Shelter Point in the larder to ease the pain.

You?

Downtown Calgary isn’t quite the same without access to all the restaurants – which at my age is really what I care most about compared to the shopping or arts etc.

But life could be much worse and not much better. I have a great view of the Rockies from my 25th floor as well as the Bow RIver and I have books I have been meaning to read forever. The frozen dim sum supply is stocked up and I don’t have to go to work.

BTW I finally ploughed through that book on the philosophy of physics. I think I even understood most of it. 😉

Ants are amazing to watch but I have never heard of them being interested in philology.

Sorry, couldn’t resist since you sent it right down the middle of the plate. 😉

Harpers Hair

Woodguys phone.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: You really see the owners fronting the players that money?
I dont.

Yes, I do.

I don’t see a massive cut to the cap when hockey returns.