The Fourth Round

As luck would have it, the last decade’s worth of fourth round picks have been more productive for the Edmonton Oilers than the second rounds. The gap will grow, as the fourth round in 2015 saw Caleb Jones taken, he is going to be a productive player for a long time. Are there any other gems coming down the pipe?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Murat Ates: My favourite player: Ryan Smyth
  • New Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

THE FOURTH ROUND

  • 2010: Jeremie Blain (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Dillon Simpson (3) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Tobias Rieder (434) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Erik Gustafsson (221) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Jackson Houck (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Kyle Platzer (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Aidan Muir (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: William Lagesson (8) (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: Zach Nagelvoort (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2015: Caleb Jones (60) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Ostap Safin (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2019: Matej Blumel (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)

Oilers second-round picks in the 2010’s played fewer NHL games than the fourth rounders.

More important is that Rieder, Gustafsson and Jones are better players than Pitlick and Marincin. Here are NHL games played by round in the years 2010-11 through 2019-20:

  • First Round: 3,281
  • Second Round: 487
  • Third Round: 321
  • Fourth Round: 718

Now that’s some crazy draft lists, ladies and men. It’ll continue for years into the next decade. Caleb Jones is a better hockey player than all the second-round picks in the 2010’s. How do the Oilers set up their draft lists?

I’m about to spend some time on the forwards drafted in the second and fourth rounds, but want to spend just a moment on the key fourth-round pick over the decade: Caleb Jones. Rieder and Gustafsson got away, but Jones signed and is a top flight young defenseman. Speed, skill, intelligence. If you grab one thought from today’s discussion, let it be Caleb Jones is a fantastic fourth-round pick.

OILERS SECOND ROUND PICKS (FORWARDS)

Edmonton chose a forward in the second round seven times, and the early picks weren’t close to value in terms of NHLE. Recent seasons have seen an improvement and as always I’m flummoxed that the organization didn’t invest more time in Marco Roy.

The most recent picks are on a higher trajectory than Pitlick, Hamilton and Moroz from earlier in the decade. The Moroz pick was 2012, the Roy pick 2013.

What changed? MacTavish became general manager.

OILERS FOURTH ROUND PICKS (FORWARDS)

Tobias Rieder, chosen in the fourth round in 2011, had a better NHLE than Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton, who were second round picks in 2010.

Early days but both of Holland’s 2019 picks (Lavoie and Blumel) posted strong NHLE’s. I don’t believe Holland or Tyler Wright track prospects using NHLE but there’s more than one way to use math and NHLE isn’t perfect. Here are the NHLE’s for the final 10 forwards drafted by Detroit before Holland’s exit:

  1. Filip Zadina (first round, 2018): 33.5
  2. Jonatan Berggren (second round, 2018): 30.8
  3. Joe Veleno (first round, 2018): 28.7
  4. Michael Rasumussen (first round, 2017) 27.2
  5. Jack Adams (sixth round, 2017): 23.6
  6. Otto Kivenmaki (seventh round, 2018): 21.3
  7. Lane Zablocki (third round, 2017): 20.9
  8. Zachary Gallant (third round, 2017): 20.8
  9. Brady Gilmour (seventh round, 2017): 19.2
  10. Ryan O’Reilly (fourth round, 2018): 16.7

The first three names on the list are genuinely good prospects and their NHLE reflects it. Michael Rasmussen was a No. 9 overall pick, his NHLE was not a strong one (Kailer Yamamoto was taken No. 22 overall in the same draft and owned a 37.7 NHLE) and it does appear offense will be an issue. Berggren was a strong pick in the second round based on NHLE, Veleno a quality pick late in the first round. I don’t see any poor selections here, Jack Adams and Kivenmaki are quite reasonable bets.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

119 Responses to "The Fourth Round"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Caleb Jones re-signing signing was impeccable in both term and timing.

    The contract is barely over the league minimum (and for a couple of years) and it was signed essentially right before Jones solidified himself as “an NHL player” – an every day NHL d-man. He then took the Klefbom injury and showed that, more likely than not, he will be a legit every day top 4 puck moving d-man. He hasn’t quite solidified that label but, assuming an 82 game 2020/21 season, I believe he will within 6-12 months.

    This is a massive value contract.

  2. Munny says:

    LT said:

    Jones signed and is a top flight young defenseman.

    Woah, horsey!

    I think this comes across as a stronger statement than intended.

    Kid played 43 games last year and had 9 points. Beauty arrow, but he has some ways to go yet—sure he’s blue chip, but a” top flight young defenseman” doesn’t leave room for the Makars, Hughes, Heiskanens of this world.

    /nitpick

  3. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    LT said:

    Jones signed and is a top flight young defenseman.

    Woah, horsey!

    I think this comes across as a stronger statement than intended.

    Kid played 43 games last year and had 9 points.Beauty arrow, but he has some ways to go yet—sure he’s blue chip, but a” top flight young defenseman” doesn’t leave room for the Makars, Hughes, Heiskanens of this world.

    /nitpick

    Jones’ WOWY numbers and performance after January 1 represent a fairly complete 25-game sample and splendid results. We can nitpick about ‘top flight’ as I could have said ’emerging’ but Jones is the real thing. Info is here:

    https://theathletic.com/1727603/2020/04/07/lowetide-oilers-five-on-five-with-and-without-connor-mcdavid-is-improving/

  4. SVR says:

    Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

    Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

  5. Lowetide says:

    SVR:
    Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

    Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

    I think that would be a poor result. JP has value and the Oilers need to extract it and turn the asset returned into something useful. Second-round pick and a lesser prospect is my guess.

  6. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    Lol, well I’m not doubting his bona fides, but 25 games is far too small a sample for me to place him in the top echelon of young defenseman (the names mentioned above). Your mileage may vary.

  7. Munny says:

    SVR:
    Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

    Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

    Expansion is the first real crunch time for the way Holland is playing his hand. I can’t see him wasting a protected slot on the young man.

    That said, I’m also not certain the Krak would take him. But there would certainly be peril.

  8. €√¥£€^$ says:

    JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots. I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

    Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

    I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    LT said:

    Jones signed and is a top flight young defenseman.

    Woah, horsey!

    I think this comes across as a stronger statement than intended.

    Kid played 43 games last year and had 9 points.Beauty arrow, but he has some ways to go yet—sure he’s blue chip, but a” top flight young defenseman” doesn’t leave room for the Makars, Hughes, Heiskanens of this world.

    /nitpick

    Well he does use the term pisscutter for bottom 6 players

  10. Lowetide says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots.I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

    Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

    I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

    One of the strange things about the Liiga is their shots totals. If you click here:

    https://liiga.fi/en/tilastot/2019-2020/runkosarja/pelaajat/?team=&position=all&home_away=&player_stats=shots&sort=T#stats-wrapper

    and identify “Shots stopped by goalie” Puljujarvi still leads by a wide margin (222 to 155 for second place player) but his shooting percentage is 10.8.

    As his NHL shooting percentage is 7.4 in 230 shots, and 10.8 in a lesser league isn’t mind boggling and does not imply 2019-20 is an outlier, I think JP’s goal scoring ability is coming into view.

  11. Munny says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots.I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

    Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

    I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

    I would consider the BOS and PHA deals. Would prefer a wayward NHLer though.

  12. jtblack says:

    wonder if the NHL will host a virtual draft like the NFL …. ??

  13. Munny says:

    Hey, when you played through Witcher 3 on your second run, LF, did you do it as New Game+ or start fresh (upped to Death march for eg)?

  14. geowal says:

    Could you expand on the Craig MacTavish comment? I’m not sure what you’re suggesting here.

    As for the 4th round, it seems like that’s the point where prior, interfering GMs stopped meddling and making organizational need picks based on things like shoe size and stead just let the scouts make the best pick available, trust the list, etc.

  15. SVR says:

    Lowetide: I think that would be a poor result. JP has value and the Oilers need to extract it and turn the asset returned into something useful. Second-round pick and a lesser prospect is my guess.

    I agree, there could be some trade value in JP, most likely a draft pick like you say. I just think that it would be better to lose a player to Seattle that isn’t going to play fur you, than losing a Caleb Jones, or Tyler Benson.

  16. geowal says:

    It seems like a no brainer. I know it’s nice for kids to walk the podium and be given a jersey but it’s not really essential. More important is the timing. The draft is always before the signing deadline. Which is always after the playoffs. Teams that have just won the cup do things differently than first round sweeps. I don’t see how they can hold the draft until the playoffs are either held (in August) or cancelled outright.

  17. RT26 says:

    I would not shut the door on JP playing in Edmonton. He is young and you will never get fair value for him in a trade.

    If he could be coaxed back, I would love to see:

    Athanasiou McD Puljujarvi
    Kassian Drai Yamamoto
    Benson/ Ennis Nuge Archibald
    Khaira Sheahan P. Russell

  18. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    Could you expand on the Craig MacTavish comment? I’m not sure what you’re suggesting here.

    As for the 4th round, it seems like that’s the point where prior, interfering GMs stopped meddling and making organizational need picks based on things like shoe size and stead just let the scouts make the best pick available, trust the list, etc.

    I think MacT, as general manager, brought some real innovation. The draft is one area. He presided over 2013 and 2014, and the only flaw I see (from a strategy pov) is two goalies and several prospects headed for college (no forwards looking to sign in 2016).

    The Roy pick was part of a dizzying pair of trades that landed several players for one pick. It didn’t work out but I applaud the thinking.

    MacT should have spent some time learning the job. He could have been a good GM imo.

  19. defmn says:

    /// If you grab one thought from today’s discussion, let it be Caleb Jones is a fantastic fourth-round pick. ///

    I would go so far as to claim that Caleb Jones would qualify as a fantastic second round pick. I think he and Bear are going to make Oilers’ fans smile for quite a few years.

  20. N64 says:

    I was referring to the scenario where JP proves to himself and everyone next year that Finland is way too small a stage and that he’s ready for top 6 in the NHL. That’s not just about scoring a little more than last year. That’s about the whole 180 foot game and some beast mode.

    That road most likely goes through Oil training camp and perhaps elsewhere after a year if he still desires.

    But I also referred to the extreme scenario where the Kraken claim him and not Jones. In other words if he’s ready to stride into the Oil or Kraken camp it’s a win either way.

  21. N64 says:

    If he’s worth the Kraken claiming over Jones but still won’t report here that can still be a win. Only player we’d lose is the one who won’t report.

  22. Bryan says:

    RT26:
    I would not shut the door on JP playing in Edmonton. He is young and you will never get fair value for him in a trade.

    If he could be coaxed back, I would love to see:

    Athanasiou McD Puljujarvi
    Kassian DraiYamamoto
    Benson/ EnnisNuge Archibald
    Khaira Sheahan P. Russell

    I agree. Even if one of the picks do pan out they are several years off. Jesse should be ready to roll if he ever will be. People seem to forget that he had double hip surgery last offseason as well which isn’t a simple thing. I hope some of his Oiler teammates are sending him texts occasionally to let him know they haven’t forgotten about him. It would also be helpful if he found a different agent. Any move with him has risk involved but getting him into camp whenever that is has the most upside.

  23. Material Elvis says:

    RT26:
    I would not shut the door on JP playing in Edmonton. He is young and you will never get fair value for him in a trade.

    If he could be coaxed back, I would love to see:

    Athanasiou McD Puljujarvi
    Kassian DraiYamamoto
    Benson/ EnnisNuge Archibald
    Khaira Sheahan P. Russell

    Why would you want to take RNH off the second line? He’s an excellent winger with Draisaitl; he doesn’t drive his own line offensively. And that McDavid line…. when is the best player going to touch the puck playing with those two? AA wants to carry it himself and JP wants to fire wrist shots from the blue line.

  24. jtblack says:

    thanks. have to agree. The NHL probably already has a deadline that they are considering to determine if the playoffs can be played this year.

    My guess would be that IF they are not allowed to play games until September, there will be no 2020 Cup champion. They would just start the new season as normal.

    Now they may a different opinion (Start playoffs Sept and crown a champion by Mid October; reset for 2 or 3 weeks and then start the new season)??

    It’s going to be so interesting to see how it plays out …

  25. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    Hey, when you played through Witcher 3 on your second run, LF, did you do it as New Game+ or start fresh (upped to Death march for eg)?

    I just started a new game on higher difficulty.
    You’re replaying it already? Impressive
    I’m occupying my time playing total war 3 kingdoms which if you like turned based strategy games with military strategy it’s very addicting. Think civilization games but you control the actual fight

  26. leadfarmer says:

    With the likely reopening of the US economy in May we probably should come to the realization that this virus is not going away any time soon. I don’t see sporting events with fans in the foreseeable future including next season until one by one most of us get the virus
    I would like to see the NHL work on a plan of putting divisions in one or two cities and have intradivision games and decrease the amount of games that if players start getting infected you can put games on hold for that division . Let’s say 50 games season

  27. BONE207 says:

    I hope all the draft picks develop much more systematically than under previous regimes. I wonder how much of it can be attributed to some solid work done with the coaches on the farm or was it the entire philosophy from the top down. It will be something to keep track of for the next few years should the entire structure remain fairly intact.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t know about others but, heck ya, I’d prefer to have a high 2nd round pick than not have a high 2nd round pick.

    Our last three 2nd round picks are Benson, McLeod, Lavoie – I’m quite happy that each and every one of them are in the org.

    Of course, if its reasonable to think that an asset greater than a 2nd round pick could be obtained for Jesse by holding out longer then, yes, absolutely, I’m in no rush. I just don’t see his value increasing from where it is today. He was just one of the better players in a good European men’s league at 21. Him doing that again at 22 doesn’t really move the needle any higher, in my opinion, unless he spikes huge with I don’t think is likely.

  29. Munny says:

    I do like Civilization and turn-based strat. Bought Stellaris at Xmas but was disappointed. Almost bought Civilization: Revolution on sale at Walmart this morning while getting groceries.

    As for Witcher… not really all that impressive on my part, I was already halfway through the last expansion pak so had little of the main story left. I was thinking I should go kill/investigate all those question marks on the map that I’ve been avoiding because I didn’t want to level too fast (reduces XP on existing quests).

    I’ve been playing a sign build (which has been pretty OP the last 20 levels) and was thinking I should try an alchemy build but have been reading they’re even more OPed.

  30. €√¥£€^$ says:

    LT,

    Oh wow, I didn’t see this, I do everything on my phone and didn’t see the entire stat line, until I turned my phone for a wider view. I didn’t realize “S” is actually “SA” on this site.
    Man, even at my advanced middle age you teach me something new almost every day 🙂

    I know he is not a natural goal scorer, he definitely has shown to have a fairly good shot, but in Liiga it seemed to me that he takes a lot of shots from distance. I think he is a superior passer and forechecker, along with his skating and reach, these are his above-average attributes. But a superior shot total, IMO is a testament to a player that can get open and/make space for themselves, which speaks to the possibility of being a dominant player.

  31. blainer says:

    Another team KH could be talking with in a trade for JP is Montreal. The Habs have 8 picks in the first 105 selections with three in the 2nd round and two of those are fairly high in the 2nd.

    This is also a team that always has pressure to compete and might just make a trade for JP. Plus IMO they still have a GM that is as incompetent as our last GM.

    I could see that guy trading the 40th pick and a third for JP. I could also see Ottawa as a partner with all their pics and they have a lot in the first two rounds. They might just take a chance.

    Carolina is another possible team with a couple of picks in the 2nd round as well.

    Could be wishful thinking. At the end of the day nobody knows for sure how this player will turn out but for me I would at least try to get something for him.

    Man did Ottawa ever fleece San Jose on the Karlsson deal. Love the fact the Sharks gave up sooo much of their future on that trade.

  32. Munny says:

    blainer: Could be wishful thinking. At the end of the day nobody knows for sure how this player will turn out but for me I would at least try to get something for him.

    Is it imperative to get something for him now?

  33. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t know about others but, heck ya, I’d prefer to have a high 2nd round pick than not have a high 2nd round pick.

    Our last three 2nd round picks are Benson, McLeod, Lavoie – I’m quite happy that each and every one of them are in the org.

    Of course, if its reasonable to think that an asset greater than a 2nd round pick could be obtained for Jesse by holding out longer then, yes, absolutely, I’m in no rush.I just don’t see his value increasing from where it is today.He was just one of the better players in a good European men’s league at 21. Him doing that again at 22 doesn’t really move the needle any higher, in my opinion, unless he spikes huge with I don’t think is likely.

    Not to rehash the entire discussion from yesterday – which is where I think Lowetide would prefer it to take place – but every time you repeat your opinion that you don’t see Puljujarvi’s value increasing you base it upon his performance. I agree that is a reasonable, if unknowable assumption.

    What I don’t think you are taking into account is that circumstances not directly related to Jesse’s on ice performance can also take place. A GM might have a similar player with slightly different issues he wants to move on from. A player could be blocked so that he can’t rise in that particular system because of the position he plays. Cap considerations might factor in if Jesse’s agent indicates to a GM that he will play for cheap just to get back.

    There is nobody who would rather not have a high second round pick than have one. But that is only stating one half of the dynamic. I would rather have a 1956 Porsche 356A (T1) than my current vehicle but I can’t find anybody who wants to swap at a price I am willing to pay. It is what I am willing to pay for that 2nd rounder that is the disagreement. Not that I don’t want a high 2nd rounder.

    And now that I have blatantly broken our hosts expressed desire to not have topics travel from the previous day’s topic I wish to apologize to him for doing so and promise I will not return to this subject today.

    I think everything that could be said from both sides of the discussion has been pretty much beaten to death.

  34. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I think one measure we can use is how does Jones compare to other young Oiler D from recent history, both by stat and by eye. I think, for example he is superior to Marincin in most facets and MM has carved a modest career for himself. If MM is a 6-7, Jones certainly is trending, IMO to becoming a 3-4.

    Still early, I know, but I’ve seen Peckham, et al and can see Jones’ is clearly set up for the possibility of long NHL career with what skills he has shown and I am confident he will only improve.

  35. blainer says:

    Munny: Is it imperative to get something for him now?


    IMO I would take what I could get for him now just because he may have some value left. It’s risky either way as he could turn out to be a great player.

    For me though I just don’t see it. I doubt he has been working on his English and just don’t think he gets how to play at the NHL level but that’s JMO.

    I would trade him for sure if I could get a high 2nd rounder in this draft simply because this draft is soo good it could be like having a first rounder in most drafts.

    Risky move whatever way you look at it . If he plays in the KHL next year he could end up being worth two first rounders in 2021 .. or could just as likely only fetch a fourth rounder.

    Staying in Finland won’t do much for his value IMO.

  36. defmn says:

    Here are NHL games played by round in the years 2010-11 through 2019-20:

    First Round: 3,281
    Second Round: 487
    Third Round: 321
    Fourth Round: 718

    I’m curious if anybody know what a ‘healthier’ distribution would look like. Should we expect something close to 1/3 of the games played by 2nd rounders to 1st rounders? Half as many?

    Something south of 15% seems almost willfully pathetic.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    I would rather just use JP for the expansion draft than sell him for a second rounder. I Would rather not lose a roster player in a year than have a pick that may end up a roster player in a few years.
    BTW I would still keep JP over Benson and McLeod who both probably top out as third liners

  38. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Material Elvis,

    I agree, I don’t see a good fit with either JP and AA with 97, but I see AA and JP good fits together on a line. I keep saying it, but if there is a compliances buy-out, well more like 2 per team, Jeff Carter with those 2 would be an almost perfect fit on a 3rd line deployment.

    Nuge, Drai & Yamo should stay together as long as they are all on this team.

    CMD needs guys like Gallagher and Maroon on his wings.

  39. Munny says:

    blainer,

    Fair enough.

    But while his value isn’t likely to increase from here, it’s also unlikely to decrease. So there really isn’t much cost to waiting.

    Plus I seriously doubt a good 2nd in this draft is obtainable.

    But patience might lead to eventually finding a deal Holland can live with, while leaving room for Pujo to change his mind in the interim.

    And you never know… he might actually have a record year next season in Finland, giving him some fame… and/or he might start doing and saying the right things off the ice. All unlikely, to be sure, but possible.

  40. yeraslob says:

    leadfarmer:
    With the likely reopening of the US economy in May we probably should come to the realization that this virus is not going away any time soon.

    The only way this virus dies is if it has dirt on the Clintons

  41. pts2pndr says:

    You need a snickers bar🙄

  42. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t know about others but, heck ya, I’d prefer to have a high 2nd round pick than not have a high 2nd round pick.

    Our last three 2nd round picks are Benson, McLeod, Lavoie – I’m quite happy that each and every one of them are in the org.

    Of course, if its reasonable to think that an asset greater than a 2nd round pick could be obtained for Jesse by holding out longer then, yes, absolutely, I’m in no rush.I just don’t see his value increasing from where it is today.He was just one of the better players in a good European men’s league at 21. Him doing that again at 22 doesn’t really move the needle any higher, in my opinion, unless he spikes huge with I don’t think is likely.

    +1. get 2 – 2nds. that would be great. The more 2nd rounders Edm keeps drafting, eventually they are going to hit on a impact player.

  43. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I would rather just use JP for the expansion draft than sell him for a second rounder.I Would rather not lose a roster player in a year than have a pick that may end up a roster player in a few years.
    BTW I would still keep JP over Benson and McLeod who both probably top out as third liners

    If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:

    Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie.

    I don’t think it’s a worry. Sign Nuge after expansion. I might prefer Benson over Puljujarvi but it’s fairly easy to protect the Finn with the current expansion draft scenario.

  44. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Why do you hate AA?

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:

    Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie.

    I don’t think it’s a worry. Sign Nuge after expansion. I might prefer Benson over Puljujarvi but it’s fairly easy to protect the Finn with the current expansion draft scenario.

    You don’t think Nuge would be tempted to sign with Seattle?

    Close to home and his horse racing stable.

  46. Lowetide says:

    I don’t hate him but I wouldn’t protect him today. He turns 26 in August and will make at least $3 million next season.

    Things could change but he doesn’t warrant the commitment past 2020-21 imo.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: You don’t think Nuge would be tempted to sign with Seattle?

    Close to home and his horse racing stable.

    He might want to sign with the Canucks. Oilers can only control so many things.

  48. BONE207 says:

    I’d prefer to have a car than not have a car.

  49. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: He might want to sign with the Canucks. Oilers can only control so many things.

    I’m thinking that with so much lead time, Seattle will assemble a very good team right out of the box.

    Ron Francis is no dummy and they have already assembled a formidable analytics team as well as having Ray Ferraro as unofficial advisor through Cammi.

    It should be a very attractive destination for free agents.

    Unlikely Vancouver would sign him given their abundance of centres and their lack of cap space.

  50. jtblack says:

    “If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:
    Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie. ”

    def get an asset(s) for JP at the draft … you move on and build … it just didn’t work out with JP. Happens.

    Then you can protect one more forward and should have 1 or 2 good prospects from the JP trade.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    SVR:
    Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

    Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

    As an RFA, if not protected by the Oilers, he would be available to be selected by Seattle I believe.

    Settle will be given a window prior to the expansion draft to speak with UFAs, i’m not sure if this applies to RFAs as well but I believe they could select an unsigned RFA.

  52. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    “If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:
    Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie. ”

    def get an asset(s) for JP at the draft … you move on and build … it just didn’t work out with JP.Happens.

    Then you can protect one more forward and should have 1 or 2 good prospects from the JP trade.

    Well if I’m not protecting JP, then signing Nuge first makes more sense. Although I like Benson a lot. That’s an interesting scenario. What if Benson pops this season?

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: He might want to sign with the Canucks. Oilers can only control so many things.

    Yeah I mean if it was that important to him why isn’t he playing for the Canucks.
    HH is getting really desperate with his trolling

  54. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    I sign Nuge. Keep building this thing out …. they are close to balance and Nuge is part of that … He might even be shaving by then ….

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: I think MacT, as general manager, brought some real innovation.

    Lowetide: MacT should have spent some time learning the job. He could have been a good GM imo.

    I agree. MacT “challenging” upcoming UFA Petry bordered on pure genius.

    His innovative use of Skype re Ralph Krueger is another example.

  56. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Thread winner!

  57. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    He was just one of the better players in a good European men’s league at 21. Him doing that again at 22 doesn’t really move the needle any higher, in my opinion, unless he spikes huge with I don’t think is likely.

    I also don’t want to continue the Jesse Puljujarvi/draft pick discussion from yesterday but wanted add a little to this point. Yesterday I thought it was bs that Jesse couldn’t improve much on his SM-Liiga performance from what he did this year. I had a quick look just now and was shocked that the highest point total in the past 8 seasons in that league is 60 points, done 3 times in those 8 years. Damn tough league to score in. So yeah, hard to see Jesse scoring 80 or something next season.

  58. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    I would rather just use JP for the expansion draft than sell him for a second rounder.I Would rather not lose a roster player in a year than have a pick that may end up a roster player in a few years.
    BTW I would still keep JP over Benson and McLeod who both probably top out as third liners

    Completely agree.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    jp: I also don’t want to continue the Jesse Puljujarvi/draft pick discussion from yesterday but wanted add a little to this point. Yesterday I thought it was bs that Jesse couldn’t improve much on his SM-Liiga performancefrom what he did this year. I had a quick look just now and was shocked that the highest point total in the past 8 seasons in that league is 60 points, done 3 times in those 8 years. Damn tough league to score in. So yeah, hard to see Jesse scoring 80 or something next season.

    Seems to me he just had a great season in Finland. But to some Lowetide posters that’s simply never going to be good enough – “second round trade the bum” etc

  60. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Seems to me he just had a great season in Finland. But to some Lowetide posters that’s simply never going to be good enough – “second round trade the bum” etc

    A little different than just a straight ‘trade the bum’ though. JP has stated he’s not playing in Edmonton and that changes the conversation.

  61. wolf8888 says:

    What if he scores 10 more and becomes the only player to score over 60 in the last 9 years? Do you think that would get more attention from other clubs?

  62. jp says:

    Probably not. I don’t think 63 points would impress them overly.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: A little different than just a straight ‘trade the bum’ though. JP has stated he’s not playing in Edmonton and that changes the conversation.

    True, dat.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think that would be a poor result. JP has value and the Oilers need to extract it and turn the asset returned into something useful. Second-round pick and a lesser prospect is my guess.

    1) I thought he had zero value – I was told that last night by a non-Oiler fan in this community

    2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64:
    I was referring to the scenario where JP proves to himself and everyone next year that Finland is way too small a stage and that he’s ready for top 6 in the NHL. That’s not just about scoring a little more than last year. That’s about the whole 180 foot game and some beast mode.

    That road most likely goes through Oil training camp and perhaps elsewhere after a year if he still desires.

    But I also referred to the extreme scenario where the Kraken claim him and not Jones. In other words if he’s ready to stride into the Oil or Kraken camp it’s a win either way.

    Jesse proved he is a dominant Liiga player at a young age.

    I assume that increased his value somewhat, how much I/we don’t know.

    I don’t think that he can increase his value that much more in Liiga and the only way to do so would be in the NHL – I just don’t see Jesse and the Oilers training camp being a realistic outcome.

    If we moves to Russia and proves to be a top end KHL player in his early 20s, that would also serve to increase his value but I’m not sure that’s any more realistic than him playing for the Oilers.

  66. supernova says:

    Sometimes I wonder if GM’s use say their first 2 picks to select off their compiled scouts list.

    Then on their 3rd pick they “take a risk”. Then circle back to value.

    Each GM is probably different but they certainly seem to have “walk about” picks.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    It seems like a no brainer. I know it’s nice for kids to walk the podium and be given a jersey but it’s not really essential. More important is the timing. The draft is always before the signing deadline. Which is always after the playoffs. Teams that have just won the cup do things differently than first round sweeps. I don’t see how they can hold the draft until the playoffs are either held (in August) or cancelled outright.

    By virtual, if that means not live with fans, I think that’s a certainty.

    It’s also a certainty that the draft won’t be held until after the completion or cancellation of the 2019/20 campaign.

    I assume that somewhere near the end of April, it will be officially cancelled and then dates for the off-season can be set with a view to a full and normal 2020/21 season starting in October (which is far from a certainty).

    With the end of April cancellation, they can pretty much keep the off-season dates are normal:

    – QO deadline mid June
    – draft last week of June
    – cap set end of June
    – free agency starting July 1
    – development camps (although these may not be do-able)
    – rookie camp (fingers crossed – Penticton tournament was coming back but that’s likely gone)
    – Mid-Sept training camp
    – October season starts

    The actual physical hockey stuff may need to be pushed back but, even if its pushed back by close to a month and they start in November, they can extend the playoffs/cup in to late June and that’s not overly egregious.

    That is my hope – for a full 2020/21 season.

    I anticipate that we may see a truncated 2020/21 season starting some time in early 2021.

    Over half of the NHL’s revenue is gate – they need fans in the stands.

  68. godot10 says:

    SVR:
    Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

    Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

    Puljujarvi is a free agent. He can talk to anybody at any time. The Oilers don’t have to sign Puljujarvi for him to be made available in the expansion draft. They just have to retain his rights by qualifying him.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    RT26:
    I would not shut the door on JP playing in Edmonton. He is young and you will never get fair value for him in a trade.

    If he could be coaxed back, I would love to see:

    Athanasiou McD Puljujarvi
    Kassian DraiYamamoto
    Benson/ EnnisNuge Archibald
    Khaira Sheahan P. Russell

    I would love to have him sign his QO and come to camp trained up and raring to battle for a spot.

    There doesn’t really seem to be any indication that he is about to change his stance on being a part of the Oilers organization.

    I will also hold out a tiny semblance of hope but I haven’t seen/heard/read any indication, unfortunately.

    ————

    Also, may I ask how you are magically getting rid of Neal and Chiasson. Oh, and Nygard re-signed for next year. I also think Nuge will remain a top 6 winger in his contract year, not a 3C.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree. Even if one of the picks do pan out they are several years off. Jesse should be ready to roll if he ever will be. People seem to forget that he had double hip surgery last offseason as well which isn’t a simple thing. I hope some of his Oiler teammates are sending him texts occasionally to let him know they haven’t forgotten about him. It would also be helpful if he found a different agent. Any move with him has risk involved but getting him into camp whenever that is has the most upside.

    Bryan:

    I think most (many) on here would love to see Jesse sign and come to camp and think he’s an NHL player.

    The issue is the player’s refusal to do so.

    To me, I’m all for Holland waiting for the right time to maximize the value on a Jesse trade – I just don’t know if his value is going to get any higher than it is coming off an elite season in Liiga – repeating that doesn’t do much except make him a year older.

    This Jesse conversation over the last 24 has really started off a made up trade suggestion around the 33rd overall pick. I don’t think Holland could get that for Jesse but, if he could, I think he would take it and run (even though he’d prefer the equivalent value with an older/developed player).

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?

    Sure, but trading Jesse for exempt assets would also free up a protected slot, with the added bonus of adding those assets to the organization.

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I thought he had zero value – I was told that last night by a non-Oiler fan in this community

    2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?

    When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:

    Man did Ottawa ever fleece San Jose on the Karlsson deal. Love the fact the Sharks gave up sooo much of their future on that trade.

    Sharks gave up a ton in that trade and then also re-signed the man to one of the worst contracts in the NHL.

  74. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jesse proved he is a dominant Liiga player at a young age.

    I assume that increased his value somewhat, how much I/we don’t know.

    He played 862 even strength minutes, scoring 16-22-38. That’s about 2.64 points per 60. He had 222 shots and 24 goals, that’s a 10.8 percent shooting percentage. He went 8-7-15 in 173 minutes, 5.19 points per 60.

  75. Seismic Source says:

    Harpers Hair: When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

    Unless there’s a shortage of used cars and potential buyers have a history with the particular used car you are selling.

  76. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Puljujarvi is a free agent.He can talk to anybody at any time.The Oilers don’t have to sign Puljujarvi for him to be made available in the expansion draft.They just have to retain his rights by qualifying him.

    I believe JP is a year from arb rights, so he would not be a free agent in any way.

  77. buck yoakam says:

    I have to add this one John Prine thing …I am not savvy enough to put the thread or the link I guess but please take the time to watch this !…it is heartbreaking and so worth it…as our host here on lowetide is such a great story teller …”John Prine/ House Of Srombo ” from 2016…magic

  78. Seismic Source says:

    Carolina has Uber young talent and 5 picks in the first 100. I’m sure they’d entertain having JP back together with Aho.

  79. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think that he can increase his value that much more in Liiga

    You’ve stated that more points can’t do that. And I’ve agreed. He can show lots more in his game this coming year besides more points

  80. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Not much response to my notional JP trade scenarios, I am glad folks are finding ways to keep themselves busy, just thought this would created a bit more conversation. Just like my Kassian post the other day, where I also spent some time compiling info on this blasted phone and present it in this forum where I’d expect it would be of interest to people. I am just surprised that HH gets more responses from his mostly inane posts.

    I suppose being cooped up is getting to me, but it is annoying. I will be back, but not sure when.

    Stay safe all.

  81. Lowetide says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots.I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

    Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

    I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

    I like Geekie, did before his spike. I think that’s a good deal. Studnicka is RH so has extra value, his offense is about the same as Geekie.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:

    Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie.

    I don’t think it’s a worry. Sign Nuge after expansion. I might prefer Benson over Puljujarvi but it’s fairly easy to protect the Finn with the current expansion draft scenario.

    They may want to protect the likes of Benson, AA and, if they can get Nuge signed to a reasonably priced extension as early as this July 1, they need to ink it.

    I understand best case scenario with Nuge is to have a hand-shake deal and wait to ink it until after the expansion draft but that comes with massive risk, in particular is he’s willing to sign early.

    Also, lets not forget about the potential 3C or top 6 W acquired.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    blainer:
    Another team KH could be talking with in a trade for JP is Montreal. The Habs have 8 picks in the first 105 selections with three in the 2nd round and two of those are fairly high in the 2nd.

    This is also a team that always has pressure to compete and might just make a trade for JP. Plus IMO they still have a GM that is as incompetent as our last GM.

    I could see that guy trading the 40th pick and a third for JP. I could also see Ottawa as a partner with all their pics and they have a lot in the first two rounds. They might just take a chance.

    Carolina is another possible team with a couple of picks in the 2nd round as well.

    Could be wishful thinking. At the end of the day nobody knows for sure how this player will turn out but for me I would at least try to get something for him.

    Man did Ottawa ever fleece San Jose on the Karlsson deal. Love the fact the Sharks gave up sooo much of their future on that trade.

    I agree with this, but I think JP just gets a decent 2nd, not a decent 2nd+.

    The only trade other than for a pick that I see for JP is a 3C, but a brief survey of the league says it’s not probable.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t hate him but I wouldn’t protect him today. He turns 26 in August and will make at least $3 million next season.

    Things could change but he doesn’t warrant the commitment past 2020-21 imo.

    Absolutely, things can change – we don’t know if the likes of AA or Benson will require a protected slot.

    WIth that said, its interesting that you would protect the player than likely can’t warrant a highish 2nd rounder in a trade and leave the player that just cost two 2nd rounders unprotected!

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I also don’t want to continue the Jesse Puljujarvi/draft pick discussion from yesterday but wanted add a little to this point. Yesterday I thought it was bs that Jesse couldn’t improve much on his SM-Liiga performancefrom what he did this year. I had a quick look just now and was shocked that the highest point total in the past 8 seasons in that league is 60 points, done 3 times in those 8 years. Damn tough league to score in. So yeah, hard to see Jesse scoring 80 or something next season.

    Yes, this is what I was getting at – I went back and checked 7 years worth of scoring leaders and the leader is generally in the 0.95-1.1 PPG category (tops in the 7 years was 1.18 P/G)

  86. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: its interesting that you would protect the player than likely can’t warrant a highish 2nd rounder in a trade and leave the player that just cost two 2nd rounders unprotected!

    I don’t recall saying that about Puljujarvi, so am unable to respond to your comment. Perhaps you’ve confused me with another poster.

  87. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I believe JP is a year from arb rights, so he would not be a free agent in any way.

    He doesn’t have arbitration rights. But he is stilll a RFA coming off of his entry level contract free to talk to anyone.

    You know, like Sebastian Aho, who was offersheeted after he talked to Montreal coming off of his entry level contract.

    And the massive speculation about whether someone was going to offer sheet Marner or Draisaitl.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

    Holland has received offers for Puljujarvi – assets have been offered for him hence his value is not zero – this has been explained to you numerous times.

  89. Todd Macallan says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots.I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

    Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

    I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

    NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
    Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
    Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
    Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
    Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
    NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
    NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
    Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
    Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

    My ideal JP trade to Carolina is Jamieson Rees + a 2nd, suspect that is too rich for their blood but may over pay for the chance to reunite him with Aho.

    I like many of your suggestions, Geekie in particular is intriguing.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: He played 862 even strength minutes, scoring 16-22-38. That’s about 2.64 points per 60. He had 222 shots and 24 goals, that’s a 10.8 percent shooting percentage. He went 8-7-15 in 173 minutes, 5.19 points per 60.

    Thanks, I didn’t know his per 60 rates.

    I assume the 2nd rate is 5 on 4?

    Either way, I still don’t know how much his value increased and if its increased enough to meet what Holland is holding out for (and will likely continue to hold out for) and I don’t know if that increased value, or required value, equate to a high 2nd rounder in either case.

  91. Lowetide says:

    godot10: He doesn’t have arbitration rights.But he is stilll a RFA coming off of his entry level contract free to talk to anyone.

    You know, like Sebastian Aho, who was offersheeted after he talked to Montreal coming off of his entry level contract.

    And the massive speculation about whether someone was going to offer sheet Marner or Draisaitl.

    You’re right, I thought his not signing with Edmonton meant the player owed the Oilers a year. I stand corrected and thank you.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I believe JP is a year from arb rights, so he would not be a free agent in any way.

    He’s an RFA – he can sign offer sheets and what not.

  93. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks, I didn’t know his per 60 rates.

    I assume the 2nd rate is 5 on 4?

    Either way, I still don’t know how much his value increased and if its increased enough to meet what Holland is holding out for (and will likely continue to hold out for) and I don’t know if that increased value, or required value, equate to a high 2nd rounder in either case.

    I believe you have the situation surrounded. 🙂

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t recall saying that about Puljujarvi, so am unable to respond to your comment. Perhaps you’ve confused me with another poster.

    Puljujarvi was in your protected list and AA was not.

  95. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Puljujarvi was in your protected list and AA was not.

    Due to dollars. JP (or Benson) are going to cost far less than AA. I also think Athanasiou would have enough trade value if it came to moving him (say) at the deadline. Puljujarvi is a unique asset losing him for an expansion draft pick is a possible outcome, I don’t see it as a preferable one.

    Your mileage may vary.

  96. oilsnc79 says:

    Lmao… Good one LT

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Holland has received offers for Puljujarvi – assets have been offered for him hence his value is not zero – this has been explained to you numerous times.

    What offers?
    Be specific.

    Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

  98. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I write a weekly financial commentary for my clients (its not as good at LT’s to be sure, but I try to keep it real as does LT. Subject not as exciting as the Oil. Writing a weekly gives me some appreciation of the effort and discipline that LT has had for more than a decade

    – I’ve included my last paragraph from this week’s commentary: Have a great long-weekend:

    It will be a challenging weekend in terms of the implication of social distancing on what is traditionally a significant weekend for our family and friends. This week many celebrate Easter, or Passover, or Ramadan. Collectively, we all have traditions that we look forward to, especially this long weekend. Speaking of mastering new practices, I will be one of the many, using these virtual video chat rooms to celebrate with the rest our family and friends some of our traditions. We will all be very grateful for the next time we can celebrate as we have always had. I found this article interesting: talking about how different groups will handle their customs:

    vox.com/identities/2020/4/8/21210114/easter-passover-ramandan-coronavirus

  99. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I write a weekly financial commentary for my clients (its not as good at LT’s to be sure, but I try to keep it real as does LT. Subject not as exciting as the Oil.Writing a weekly gives me some appreciation of the effort and discipline that LT has had for more than a decade

    – I’ve included my last paragraph from this week’s commentary:Have a great long-weekend:

    It will be a challenging weekend in terms of the implication of social distancing on what is traditionally a significant weekend for our family and friends. This week many celebrate Easter, or Passover, or Ramadan. Collectively, we all have traditions that we look forward to, especially this long weekend. Speaking of mastering new practices, I will be one of the many, using these virtual video chat rooms to celebrate with the rest our family and friends some of our traditions.We will all be very grateful for the next time we can celebrate as we have always had.I found this article interesting: talking about how different groups will handle their customs:

    vox.com/identities/2020/4/8/21210114/easter-passover-ramandan-coronavirus

    That’s awesome. Thanks for sharing and it’s so true about the customs. I’m sitting next to a woman who is slightly heartbroken because her family Easter Sunday dinner won’t have the same feel. Appreciate the words and the link.

  100. jp says:

    N64: You’ve stated that more points can’t do that. And I’ve agreed. He can show lots more in his game this coming year besides more points

    I’m not trying to disagree, but didn’t he have an incredible corsi or SF%? I’m remembering someone (Wilde?) was posting some form of possession metric from Finland through the year. That seemed to indicate a truly dominant 2-way player. It’s also possible I’ve made this up…

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Due to dollars. JP (or Benson) are going to cost far less than AA. I also think Athanasiou would have enough trade value if it came to moving him (say) at the deadline. Puljujarvi is a unique asset losing him for an expansion draft pick is a possible outcome, I don’t see it as a preferable one.

    Your mileage may vary.

    I don’t think its a preferable option either.

    Do you see Puljujarvi equally as valuable as AA, as a player and/or a trade piece?

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: What offers?
    Be specific.

    Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

    How the hell am I supposed to know the specifics? Am I the general manager of the Oilers?

    The GM of the Oilers has stated he has received offers. McKenzie, Friedman and the like have stated the same.

    So, yes, given other teams and their managers are willing to pay assets to acquire him, his value is not zero and you are simply wrong – again.

  103. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: What offers?
    Be specific.

    Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

    Hehe, so Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and… Brogan Rafferty have zero value?

  104. Harpers Hair says:

    I start every hand of poker with pocket aces…..until proven otherwise.

  105. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think its a preferable option either.

    Do you see Puljujarvi equally as valuable as AA, as a player and/or a trade piece?

    If they both made $1 million a year, I would take Athanasiou. He’s older but has scored 30 goals in the NHL. I don’t think Puljujarvi’s resume suggests he is likely to score 30 in an NHL season.

  106. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Hehe, so Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and… Brogan Rafferty have zero value?

    None of those players is on the market.

    If they were, the return would be massive.

  107. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: None of those players is on the market.

    If they were, the return would be massive.

    How do you know they’re not on the market? (I will acknowledge the return for Rafferty would surely be massive)

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: None of those players is on the market.

    If they were, the return would be massive.

    As it would be for McDavid, Drai, Bouchard

    Rafferty has less value that Puljujarvi I would reckon.

  109. Munny says:

    jp: How do you know they’re not on the market? (I will acknowledge the return for Rafferty would surely be massive)

    I’m thinking Draisaitl, Nurse, a first rounder and a second rounder, the rights to the Star Wars franchise, a bottle of 1940 Macallan “M”… and a date with Jennifer Lawrence.

    Not sure if it’d be enough to outbid the field though.

  110. BONE207 says:

    I think he’s starting to crack…let the easter egg hunt begin…

  111. BONE207 says:

    The return would be … like your dreams.

  112. BONE207 says:

    You forgot the machine that goes: PING

  113. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: As it would be for McDavid, Drai, Bouchard

    Rafferty has less value that Puljujarvi I would reckon.

    Bouchard…meh.

    Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

  114. Harpers Hair says:

    It’s a long way from second pairing D in the NHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

    But dream on.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    It’s a long way from second pairing D in the NHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

    But dream on.

    Who is a 2nd pairing NHL d-man?

    I doubt Holland would trade Puljujarvi for Rafferty but I think Benning would make that swap!

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard…meh.

    Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

    Bouchard = meh

    Rafferty = huge value 2nd pairing NHL d-man

    Of course this is posited by a poster than would trade Rafferty for any of Klefbom, Bear or Bouchard.

    Bouchard likely goes 3rd in a re-draft for d-men – still ahead of Dobson and ahead of Boquist – only reason they were in the NHL is they weren’t eligible for the AHL – they wouldn’t have cracked the Oilers lineup and would have been healthy scratched just like they were for their current teams.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard…meh.

    Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

    Okay time for you to simply take off the mask and start peddling McDavid for players, prospects and picks.

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    It’s a long way from second pairing D in the AHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

    But dream on.

    FTFY

  119. Old Timer says:

    For those who are not aware, Colby Cave has passed away.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca