The Fourth Round

by Lowetide

As luck would have it, the last decade’s worth of fourth round picks have been more productive for the Edmonton Oilers than the second rounds. The gap will grow, as the fourth round in 2015 saw Caleb Jones taken, he is going to be a productive player for a long time. Are there any other gems coming down the pipe?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Murat Ates: My favourite player: Ryan Smyth
  • New Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

THE FOURTH ROUND

  • 2010: Jeremie Blain (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Dillon Simpson (3) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Tobias Rieder (434) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Erik Gustafsson (221) (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Jackson Houck (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Kyle Platzer (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Aidan Muir (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: William Lagesson (8) (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: Zach Nagelvoort (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2015: Caleb Jones (60) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Ostap Safin (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2019: Matej Blumel (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)

Oilers second-round picks in the 2010’s played fewer NHL games than the fourth rounders.

More important is that Rieder, Gustafsson and Jones are better players than Pitlick and Marincin. Here are NHL games played by round in the years 2010-11 through 2019-20:

  • First Round: 3,281
  • Second Round: 487
  • Third Round: 321
  • Fourth Round: 718

Now that’s some crazy draft lists, ladies and men. It’ll continue for years into the next decade. Caleb Jones is a better hockey player than all the second-round picks in the 2010’s. How do the Oilers set up their draft lists?

I’m about to spend some time on the forwards drafted in the second and fourth rounds, but want to spend just a moment on the key fourth-round pick over the decade: Caleb Jones. Rieder and Gustafsson got away, but Jones signed and is a top flight young defenseman. Speed, skill, intelligence. If you grab one thought from today’s discussion, let it be Caleb Jones is a fantastic fourth-round pick.

OILERS SECOND ROUND PICKS (FORWARDS)

Edmonton chose a forward in the second round seven times, and the early picks weren’t close to value in terms of NHLE. Recent seasons have seen an improvement and as always I’m flummoxed that the organization didn’t invest more time in Marco Roy.

The most recent picks are on a higher trajectory than Pitlick, Hamilton and Moroz from earlier in the decade. The Moroz pick was 2012, the Roy pick 2013.

What changed? MacTavish became general manager.

OILERS FOURTH ROUND PICKS (FORWARDS)

Tobias Rieder, chosen in the fourth round in 2011, had a better NHLE than Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton, who were second round picks in 2010.

Early days but both of Holland’s 2019 picks (Lavoie and Blumel) posted strong NHLE’s. I don’t believe Holland or Tyler Wright track prospects using NHLE but there’s more than one way to use math and NHLE isn’t perfect. Here are the NHLE’s for the final 10 forwards drafted by Detroit before Holland’s exit:

  1. Filip Zadina (first round, 2018): 33.5
  2. Jonatan Berggren (second round, 2018): 30.8
  3. Joe Veleno (first round, 2018): 28.7
  4. Michael Rasumussen (first round, 2017) 27.2
  5. Jack Adams (sixth round, 2017): 23.6
  6. Otto Kivenmaki (seventh round, 2018): 21.3
  7. Lane Zablocki (third round, 2017): 20.9
  8. Zachary Gallant (third round, 2017): 20.8
  9. Brady Gilmour (seventh round, 2017): 19.2
  10. Ryan O’Reilly (fourth round, 2018): 16.7

The first three names on the list are genuinely good prospects and their NHLE reflects it. Michael Rasmussen was a No. 9 overall pick, his NHLE was not a strong one (Kailer Yamamoto was taken No. 22 overall in the same draft and owned a 37.7 NHLE) and it does appear offense will be an issue. Berggren was a strong pick in the second round based on NHLE, Veleno a quality pick late in the first round. I don’t see any poor selections here, Jack Adams and Kivenmaki are quite reasonable bets.

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wintoon

For those who are not aware, Colby Cave has passed away.

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair:
It’s a long way from second pairing D in the AHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

But dream on.

FTFY

hunter1909

Harpers Hair: Bouchard…meh.

Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

Okay time for you to simply take off the mask and start peddling McDavid for players, prospects and picks.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Bouchard…meh.

Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

Bouchard = meh

Rafferty = huge value 2nd pairing NHL d-man

Of course this is posited by a poster than would trade Rafferty for any of Klefbom, Bear or Bouchard.

Bouchard likely goes 3rd in a re-draft for d-men – still ahead of Dobson and ahead of Boquist – only reason they were in the NHL is they weren’t eligible for the AHL – they wouldn’t have cracked the Oilers lineup and would have been healthy scratched just like they were for their current teams.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
It’s a long way from second pairing D in the NHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

But dream on.

Who is a 2nd pairing NHL d-man?

I doubt Holland would trade Puljujarvi for Rafferty but I think Benning would make that swap!

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: As it would be for McDavid, Drai, Bouchard

Rafferty has less value that Puljujarvi I would reckon.

Bouchard…meh.

Based on early results he’s likely the 5th or 6th defenseman in the 2018 draft but I’m sure he would fetch a low first round pick.

Munny

jp: How do you know they’re not on the market? (I will acknowledge the return for Rafferty would surely be massive)

I’m thinking Draisaitl, Nurse, a first rounder and a second rounder, the rights to the Star Wars franchise, a bottle of 1940 Macallan “M”… and a date with Jennifer Lawrence.

Not sure if it’d be enough to outbid the field though.

BONE207

You forgot the machine that goes: PING

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: None of those players is on the market.

If they were, the return would be massive.

As it would be for McDavid, Drai, Bouchard

Rafferty has less value that Puljujarvi I would reckon.

Harpers Hair

It’s a long way from second pairing D in the NHL to the frozen steppes of Lapland.

But dream on.

jp

Harpers Hair: None of those players is on the market.

If they were, the return would be massive.

How do you know they’re not on the market? (I will acknowledge the return for Rafferty would surely be massive)

Harpers Hair

jp: Hehe, so Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and… Brogan Rafferty have zero value?

None of those players is on the market.

If they were, the return would be massive.

BONE207

The return would be … like your dreams.

jp

Harpers Hair: What offers?
Be specific.

Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

Hehe, so Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and… Brogan Rafferty have zero value?

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: What offers?
Be specific.

Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

How the hell am I supposed to know the specifics? Am I the general manager of the Oilers?

The GM of the Oilers has stated he has received offers. McKenzie, Friedman and the like have stated the same.

So, yes, given other teams and their managers are willing to pay assets to acquire him, his value is not zero and you are simply wrong – again.

Harpers Hair

I start every hand of poker with pocket aces…..until proven otherwise.

BONE207

I think he’s starting to crack…let the easter egg hunt begin…

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Due to dollars. JP (or Benson) are going to cost far less than AA. I also think Athanasiou would have enough trade value if it came to moving him (say) at the deadline. Puljujarvi is a unique asset losing him for an expansion draft pick is a possible outcome, I don’t see it as a preferable one.

Your mileage may vary.

I don’t think its a preferable option either.

Do you see Puljujarvi equally as valuable as AA, as a player and/or a trade piece?

jp

N64: You’ve stated that more points can’t do that. And I’ve agreed. He can show lots more in his game this coming year besides more points

I’m not trying to disagree, but didn’t he have an incredible corsi or SF%? I’m remembering someone (Wilde?) was posting some form of possession metric from Finland through the year. That seemed to indicate a truly dominant 2-way player. It’s also possible I’ve made this up…

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I write a weekly financial commentary for my clients (its not as good at LT’s to be sure, but I try to keep it real as does LT. Subject not as exciting as the Oil. Writing a weekly gives me some appreciation of the effort and discipline that LT has had for more than a decade

– I’ve included my last paragraph from this week’s commentary: Have a great long-weekend:

It will be a challenging weekend in terms of the implication of social distancing on what is traditionally a significant weekend for our family and friends. This week many celebrate Easter, or Passover, or Ramadan. Collectively, we all have traditions that we look forward to, especially this long weekend. Speaking of mastering new practices, I will be one of the many, using these virtual video chat rooms to celebrate with the rest our family and friends some of our traditions. We will all be very grateful for the next time we can celebrate as we have always had. I found this article interesting: talking about how different groups will handle their customs:

vox.com/identities/2020/4/8/21210114/easter-passover-ramandan-coronavirus

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Holland has received offers for Puljujarvi – assets have been offered for him hence his value is not zero – this has been explained to you numerous times.

What offers?
Be specific.

Like any commodity, his value is what someone is willing to pay to acquire him.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I don’t recall saying that about Puljujarvi, so am unable to respond to your comment. Perhaps you’ve confused me with another poster.

Puljujarvi was in your protected list and AA was not.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I believe JP is a year from arb rights, so he would not be a free agent in any way.

He’s an RFA – he can sign offer sheets and what not.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: He played 862 even strength minutes, scoring 16-22-38. That’s about 2.64 points per 60. He had 222 shots and 24 goals, that’s a 10.8 percent shooting percentage. He went 8-7-15 in 173 minutes, 5.19 points per 60.

Thanks, I didn’t know his per 60 rates.

I assume the 2nd rate is 5 on 4?

Either way, I still don’t know how much his value increased and if its increased enough to meet what Holland is holding out for (and will likely continue to hold out for) and I don’t know if that increased value, or required value, equate to a high 2nd rounder in either case.

Todd Macallan

€√¥£€^$:
JP is still a substantial talent and points aside, he still led Liiga by almost 100 total shots.I don’t know about you, but anyone who averages 6.7 shots per game gets my attention.

Assuming he gets dealt at the draft, what does JP’s value look like to you?

I posted this last night, but I think his value is in this ballpark:

NJ – Janne Kuokkanen + NJ 2020 4th & 2020 6th
Bos – Jack Studnicka + Bos 2020 3rd
Car – Morgan Geekie + Buf 2020 3rd
Chi – MacKenzie Entwistle + Chi 2020 3rd
Fla – Aleksi Saarela + Fla 2020 3rd
NYI – Otto Koivula + NYI 2020 3rd + 6th
NYI – Kiefer Bellows + NYI 2020 3rd + 7th
Phi – Isaac Ratcliffe + Phi 2020 2nd
Ott – Jonathan Gruden + NYI 2020 2nd

My ideal JP trade to Carolina is Jamieson Rees + a 2nd, suspect that is too rich for their blood but may over pay for the chance to reunite him with Aho.

I like many of your suggestions, Geekie in particular is intriguing.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

Holland has received offers for Puljujarvi – assets have been offered for him hence his value is not zero – this has been explained to you numerous times.

godot10

Lowetide: I believe JP is a year from arb rights, so he would not be a free agent in any way.

He doesn’t have arbitration rights. But he is stilll a RFA coming off of his entry level contract free to talk to anyone.

You know, like Sebastian Aho, who was offersheeted after he talked to Montreal coming off of his entry level contract.

And the massive speculation about whether someone was going to offer sheet Marner or Draisaitl.

OriginalPouzar

jp: I also don’t want to continue the Jesse Puljujarvi/draft pick discussion from yesterday but wanted add a little to this point. Yesterday I thought it was bs that Jesse couldn’t improve much on his SM-Liiga performancefrom what he did this year. I had a quick look just now and was shocked that the highest point total in the past 8 seasons in that league is 60 points, done 3 times in those 8 years. Damn tough league to score in. So yeah, hard to see Jesse scoring 80 or something next season.

Yes, this is what I was getting at – I went back and checked 7 years worth of scoring leaders and the leader is generally in the 0.95-1.1 PPG category (tops in the 7 years was 1.18 P/G)

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
I don’t hate him but I wouldn’t protect him today. He turns 26 in August and will make at least $3 million next season.

Things could change but he doesn’t warrant the commitment past 2020-21 imo.

Absolutely, things can change – we don’t know if the likes of AA or Benson will require a protected slot.

WIth that said, its interesting that you would protect the player than likely can’t warrant a highish 2nd rounder in a trade and leave the player that just cost two 2nd rounders unprotected!

Woodguy v2.0

blainer:
Another team KH could be talking with in a trade for JP is Montreal. The Habs have 8 picks in the first 105 selections with three in the 2nd round and two of those are fairly high in the 2nd.

This is also a team that always has pressure to compete and might just make a trade for JP. Plus IMO they still have a GM that is as incompetent as our last GM.

I could see that guy trading the 40th pick and a third for JP. I could also see Ottawa as a partner with all their pics and they have a lot in the first two rounds. They might just take a chance.

Carolina is another possible team with a couple of picks in the 2nd round as well.

Could be wishful thinking. At the end of the day nobody knows for sure how this player will turn out but for me I would at least try to get something for him.

Man did Ottawa ever fleece San Jose on the Karlsson deal. Love the fact the Sharks gave up sooo much of their future on that trade.

I agree with this, but I think JP just gets a decent 2nd, not a decent 2nd+.

The only trade other than for a pick that I see for JP is a 3C, but a brief survey of the league says it’s not probable.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: If you go 8 skaters and one goalie:

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, JP, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Plus a goalie.

I don’t think it’s a worry. Sign Nuge after expansion. I might prefer Benson over Puljujarvi but it’s fairly easy to protect the Finn with the current expansion draft scenario.

They may want to protect the likes of Benson, AA and, if they can get Nuge signed to a reasonably priced extension as early as this July 1, they need to ink it.

I understand best case scenario with Nuge is to have a hand-shake deal and wait to ink it until after the expansion draft but that comes with massive risk, in particular is he’s willing to sign early.

Also, lets not forget about the potential 3C or top 6 W acquired.

€√¥£€^$

Not much response to my notional JP trade scenarios, I am glad folks are finding ways to keep themselves busy, just thought this would created a bit more conversation. Just like my Kassian post the other day, where I also spent some time compiling info on this blasted phone and present it in this forum where I’d expect it would be of interest to people. I am just surprised that HH gets more responses from his mostly inane posts.

I suppose being cooped up is getting to me, but it is annoying. I will be back, but not sure when.

Stay safe all.

N64

OriginalPouzar: I don’t think that he can increase his value that much more in Liiga

You’ve stated that more points can’t do that. And I’ve agreed. He can show lots more in his game this coming year besides more points

Seismic Source

Carolina has Uber young talent and 5 picks in the first 100. I’m sure they’d entertain having JP back together with Aho.

buck yoakam

I have to add this one John Prine thing …I am not savvy enough to put the thread or the link I guess but please take the time to watch this !…it is heartbreaking and so worth it…as our host here on lowetide is such a great story teller …”John Prine/ House Of Srombo ” from 2016…magic

Seismic Source

Harpers Hair: When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

Unless there’s a shortage of used cars and potential buyers have a history with the particular used car you are selling.

OriginalPouzar

blainer:

Man did Ottawa ever fleece San Jose on the Karlsson deal. Love the fact the Sharks gave up sooo much of their future on that trade.

Sharks gave up a ton in that trade and then also re-signed the man to one of the worst contracts in the NHL.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: 1) I thought he had zero value – I was told that last night by a non-Oiler fan in this community

2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?

When you sell your used car it has zero value until someone wants to buy it.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:

2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?

Sure, but trading Jesse for exempt assets would also free up a protected slot, with the added bonus of adding those assets to the organization.

OriginalPouzar

I agree. Even if one of the picks do pan out they are several years off. Jesse should be ready to roll if he ever will be. People seem to forget that he had double hip surgery last offseason as well which isn’t a simple thing. I hope some of his Oiler teammates are sending him texts occasionally to let him know they haven’t forgotten about him. It would also be helpful if he found a different agent. Any move with him has risk involved but getting him into camp whenever that is has the most upside.

Bryan:

I think most (many) on here would love to see Jesse sign and come to camp and think he’s an NHL player.

The issue is the player’s refusal to do so.

To me, I’m all for Holland waiting for the right time to maximize the value on a Jesse trade – I just don’t know if his value is going to get any higher than it is coming off an elite season in Liiga – repeating that doesn’t do much except make him a year older.

This Jesse conversation over the last 24 has really started off a made up trade suggestion around the 33rd overall pick. I don’t think Holland could get that for Jesse but, if he could, I think he would take it and run (even though he’d prefer the equivalent value with an older/developed player).

OriginalPouzar

RT26:
I would not shut the door on JP playing in Edmonton. He is young and you will never get fair value for him in a trade.

If he could be coaxed back, I would love to see:

Athanasiou McD Puljujarvi
Kassian DraiYamamoto
Benson/ EnnisNuge Archibald
Khaira Sheahan P. Russell

I would love to have him sign his QO and come to camp trained up and raring to battle for a spot.

There doesn’t really seem to be any indication that he is about to change his stance on being a part of the Oilers organization.

I will also hold out a tiny semblance of hope but I haven’t seen/heard/read any indication, unfortunately.

————

Also, may I ask how you are magically getting rid of Neal and Chiasson. Oh, and Nygard re-signed for next year. I also think Nuge will remain a top 6 winger in his contract year, not a 3C.

godot10

SVR:
Sorry about bringing yesterday’s topic into this thread, but I’m curious about the possibility of JP and the expansion draft. It was mentioned a couple of times by N64.

Is Jesse eligible to be picked if he is unsigned? If so, that would be a great result imo. If not, would Seattle be allowed to speak with him and. make a “deal” where he signs with Edmonton then Seattle picks him in the draft? Or maybe that’s not allowed.

Puljujarvi is a free agent. He can talk to anybody at any time. The Oilers don’t have to sign Puljujarvi for him to be made available in the expansion draft. They just have to retain his rights by qualifying him.

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
It seems like a no brainer. I know it’s nice for kids to walk the podium and be given a jersey but it’s not really essential. More important is the timing. The draft is always before the signing deadline. Which is always after the playoffs. Teams that have just won the cup do things differently than first round sweeps. I don’t see how they can hold the draft until the playoffs are either held (in August) or cancelled outright.

By virtual, if that means not live with fans, I think that’s a certainty.

It’s also a certainty that the draft won’t be held until after the completion or cancellation of the 2019/20 campaign.

I assume that somewhere near the end of April, it will be officially cancelled and then dates for the off-season can be set with a view to a full and normal 2020/21 season starting in October (which is far from a certainty).

With the end of April cancellation, they can pretty much keep the off-season dates are normal:

– QO deadline mid June
– draft last week of June
– cap set end of June
– free agency starting July 1
– development camps (although these may not be do-able)
– rookie camp (fingers crossed – Penticton tournament was coming back but that’s likely gone)
– Mid-Sept training camp
– October season starts

The actual physical hockey stuff may need to be pushed back but, even if its pushed back by close to a month and they start in November, they can extend the playoffs/cup in to late June and that’s not overly egregious.

That is my hope – for a full 2020/21 season.

I anticipate that we may see a truncated 2020/21 season starting some time in early 2021.

Over half of the NHL’s revenue is gate – they need fans in the stands.

supernova

Sometimes I wonder if GM’s use say their first 2 picks to select off their compiled scouts list.

Then on their 3rd pick they “take a risk”. Then circle back to value.

Each GM is probably different but they certainly seem to have “walk about” picks.

OriginalPouzar

N64:
I was referring to the scenario where JP proves to himself and everyone next year that Finland is way too small a stage and that he’s ready for top 6 in the NHL. That’s not just about scoring a little more than last year. That’s about the whole 180 foot game and some beast mode.

That road most likely goes through Oil training camp and perhaps elsewhere after a year if he still desires.

But I also referred to the extreme scenario where the Kraken claim him and not Jones. In other words if he’s ready to stride into the Oil or Kraken camp it’s a win either way.

Jesse proved he is a dominant Liiga player at a young age.

I assume that increased his value somewhat, how much I/we don’t know.

I don’t think that he can increase his value that much more in Liiga and the only way to do so would be in the NHL – I just don’t see Jesse and the Oilers training camp being a realistic outcome.

If we moves to Russia and proves to be a top end KHL player in his early 20s, that would also serve to increase his value but I’m not sure that’s any more realistic than him playing for the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I think that would be a poor result. JP has value and the Oilers need to extract it and turn the asset returned into something useful. Second-round pick and a lesser prospect is my guess.

1) I thought he had zero value – I was told that last night by a non-Oiler fan in this community

2) Would Jesse being taken, allowing the team to keep someone like Jones or Benson (if he takes the next step) or AA, etc. not equate to some value?