(If left is right and right is wrong) You Better Decide Which Side You’re On

by Lowetide

Starting in 2015, I began ranking 120 players per draft based on math and a few other things I believed. Beginning that year, I started back drafting my list against the Oilers selections.

I wondered if my ‘math’ rankings would outshine Edmonton’s scouts, or at least hold its own. I decided to wait five years to give the prospects time to develop. We’re five years past the 2015 draft. How did the Lowetide list do against the Oilers scouts?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
  • New Murat Ates: My favourite player: Ryan Smyth
  • New Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season

THE 2015 DRAFT

Oilers scouts must have been beside themselves watching all those draft picks being dealt, but five years later there’s a lot to be proud of for the organization. McDavid is the franchise cornerstone but the lottery took care of that pick.

The scouts get credit for the Jones, Bear and Marino picks and that’s a lot of quality. The 2015 draft already has four NHL players, matching 2010 as the only year in the decade to manage it. The 2015 foursome will fly higher than 2010.

My selections included Bear and little else of note. He’s the only player my list picked who is on track for an NHL career (McDavid aside).

Decision: Major edge to the Oilers scouts.

THE 2016 DRAFT

Four years after and this draft went sideways in a hurry. Puljujarvi was the right pick but his handling by the organization was a comedy of errors. Benson looks like he might be able to help and the organization could be on the verge of signing Niemelainen and Berglund this summer. Wells turned pro with an NHL contract but this draft will cross the five-year finish line in trail position.

The Lowetide list also took Puljujarvi, but followed up with DeBrincat who was a second-round home run. I also like the fact Abramov got a cup of coffee and hope for a late ‘Marino’ spike from him in 2020-21.

Decision: Major edge for the Lowetide list, and unlikely to improve for the Oilers with one season left in the five-year window.

THE 2017 DRAFT

The Oilers have what looks like a solid draft developing. Yamamoto overcame injuries and some pedestrian AHL numbers with a fantastic run with the big club beginning January 2020. Samorukov is tracking like a future NHLer and Maksimov has promise. Skinner hasn’t emerged but has had some good months in a tough situation.

Tolvanen trails Yamamoto but both men have talent and could become productive players for the next several years. Reedy is tracking well enough to be considered a prospect, and Chmelveski has a chance too.

Decision: Edge Edmonton, Yamamoto looks more dynamic than Tolvanen and Samorukov is a quality prospect.

THE 2018 DRAFT

The Oilers have Bouchard, who has the resume of a successful offensive defenseman and appears ready. McLeod and Rodrigue had good seasons and Kesselring has a lot of fans who work in the hockey industry.

My list features several men who are pushing up depth charts. Smith had a terrific year, he’s going to be a fine defenseman. Fagemo and Hillis posted strong seasons and Olofsson is on track as a prospect. Nyman had a solid year in Finland.

Decision: Too soon to know, both lists are performing well.

THE 2019 DRAFT

One year in the Oilers have several prospects performing well. Broberg and Lavoie played at the WJ’s and did some good things in league games. Konovalov had an uneven year but remains the best goalie prospect in the system. Blumel, Mazura and Denezhkin are progression.

My list has Kaliyev, who is a quality scorer whose numbers improved only slightly in draft plus one. Matthew Robertson improved across the board and is emerging as a nice two-way defenseman. Blake Murray didn’t score 50 goals this season but did improve his points per game. Billy Constantinou had a solid year.

Decision: Much too soon to know, no player on either list spiked in a way that suggests an impact player is about to emerge.

CONCLUSION

Edmonton’s 2015 draft was exceptional, full value for procuring four NHL players without a second or a third-round selection. The team’s 2017 draft appears to have two handsome returns (Yamamoto, Samorukov) although those eggs aren’t fully hatched yet. The 2018 and 2019 drafts continue to matriculate.

Edmonton’s sore spot is the 2016 draft, there is time and Puljujarvi, Benson and possibly others have NHL talent. Important to salvage something from that draft summer.

The Lowetide list hit a big fly in 2016, DeBrincat is the kind of selection math uncovers annually. The difference is DeBrincat cashed big, so as opposed to being an astute selection the young man had a fairly immediate impact on the franchise (Chicago) smart enough to pick him. The 2018 draft is also tracking well for the Lowetide list.

On the downside, the LT 2015 list got very little compared to the Oilers. As much as I can trumpet the DeBrincat selection, Edmonton’s scouts grabbed four useful pieces to only two from my list.

The 2017 list is reliant on Tolvanen turning out, there’s no one who looks like Samorukov. The 2019 list doesn’t look inspiring one year later.

Bottom line: Despite the DeBrincat selection, the Oilers scouts did a better job in these five drafts based on what we know today.

140 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
140 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Harpers Hair

RIP Colby Cave.

Yeti

Oh no. That’s terrible. Sorry to hear this.

frjohnk

Absolutely gut wrenching.

Taken way too young

meanashell11

What a tragedy.

My heart goes out to his family.

Death By Misadventure

OriginalPouzar: Well, in 2015, they get a McDavid, a Bear and a Jones (and also a Marino but….).

In 2017 they got a Yamamoto and ______ – there are a couple or three legit NHL prospects.

In 2018, well, its too early to say but there is a Bouchard and a couple other legit NHL prospects.

Well when I posted my comment I was going a lot further back in my thoughts. Specifically 2006 and the gagner, plante, and nash draft. It was my great hope and it sucked. Opportunity missed. And that was followed by a lot of missed opportunities. Agreed though that drafts have gotten better.

Munny

Fuck.

so sad.

jp

That’s awful. RIP Colby.

defmn

Words fail. RIP Colby.

Yeti

2016- you would have taken Veini Vehviläinen in the 4th round. Would be a useful piece for the Oilers to have right now.

wchay

Harpers Hair,

Just crushing. Thoughts with his wife and family.

OriginalPouzar

This was fun to look at just like the Oilers List vs. McKenzie LIst was fun to look at a few days ago.

The DeBrincat pick hugely swings the 2016 draft but, if Benson does become a solid middle six player (let alone top 6) and Berglund becomes and NHL d-man…..

2017 has the potential for 4-5 legit NHL players, player of prominence as well – too soon to tell but it may be another 2015 (sans McDavid).

Todd Macallan

Colby and Kristians Pelss are somewhere forming 2/3rds of a heck of an energy line now.

doritogrande

So apt, but so tragic at the same time.

OriginalPouzar

Geezus – what awful news

25 years old.

flyfish1168

What sad news. RIP Colby Cave.

doritogrande

Sail on, son of Battleford.

OilClog

Rest in Peace Colby Cave

dustrock

Oh man that’s tragic. Rest in Peace.

jdhardy

Far, far too soon. RIP Colby.

unca miltie

crushing news. so sad

OilClog

Krakatoa is erupting, Chernobyl is burning, Aliens must be next.

slopitch

Heartbreaking news about Colby Cave. Man. RIP. Gone too soon.

geowal

Terrible news this AM

Pescador

Colby was one tough SOB,
https://youtu.be/8Id4ExV3mQI

unca miltie

I am right behind the Heat bench wearing my Oilers sweater in that clip. that will always be my memory of Colby even though he was well thought of for many other things.

Bruce McCurdy

Cave reached out to Pospisil by text after that by text, transcript in the CoH post that Staples wrote this morning. He was a class act & a solid citizen.

Silver Streak

I was at the Bruin game in mid February….one group of fans wearing Bruin sweaters had Cave on the back….I asked where they were from….Battleford was the reply….they were a great bunch who made their town and Province proud….and they loved Colby. RIP

BONE207
Victoria Oil

Thanks for posting. This will be my memory of him. RIP Colby.

defmn

I wouldn’t say that I agree with Staples on each and every individual call he makes on what constitutes a mistake using his visual scoring system but like all large numbers they tell a story that has merit.

This is why I like Larsson and will be sad when his time with the Oilers comes to an end.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/the-most-under-rated-edmonton-oilers-player-is-and-he-wins-by-a-long-shot/

jtblack

“DeBrincat is the kind of selection math uncovers annually. ”

This is why it would be wise for KH to acquire 1 or 2 picks in the upcoming draft … The more picks, the more opportunity scouts have to deliver ..

OriginalPouzar

Yeti:
2016- you would have taken Veini Vehviläinen in the 4th round. Would be a useful piece for the Oilers to have right now.

I ask what you see in this player in particular?

Sure, he had better numbers in the AHL that Stuart Skinner but they were still VERY middling numbers and he’s almost two years older than Skinner. I don’t see anything in his numbers that would suggest he’s NHL ready at 23.

I acknowledge his numbers in Liiga and internationally but based on his first year North American season, am I missing something?

defmn

jtblack:
“DeBrincat is the kind of selection math uncovers annually. ”

This is why it would be wise for KH to acquire 1 or 2 picks in the upcoming draft …The more picks, the more opportunity scouts have to deliver ..

I don’t think anybody would disagree that more draft picks is better than fewer draft picks.

How you acquire those picks is a more nuanced discussion. 😉

fries n gravy

Alas, such sad news.

Gerta Rauss

RIP Colby

Heartbreaking news

Someone

What a horrible thing, and for his family not to be able to be with him in his final moments must have been crushing.

jtblack

defmn: I don’t think anybody would disagree that more draft picks is better than fewer draft picks.

How you acquire those picks is a more nuanced discussion.?

100%. But I think we can agree that a team cannot go into draft after draft with 4 or 5 picks … If KH wants to build this out properly, they need as close to a full slate as possible for the next 2 – 3 years …

Harpers Hair

Nikolay Goldobin signs a two year contract in the KHL.

Just another European opting to play close to home.

jtblack

seems like more and more players are choosing that option …

pts2pndr

Batten the hatches the Vancouverites are filling the ferries and coming your way.Hunker down and be safe. Take care of Mrs Hair and be safe!
My best to you both!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jtblack,

There would seem to be a two year window to acquire surplus picks from teams who’ve gathered more picks then they can reasonably integrate into their farm systems. Here’s looking at you, OTT, MTL and LAK.

OTT: Round 1 (3x), Round 2 (4x), Round 3 (2x)
MTL: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (3x), Round 5 (2x)
LAK: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (2x)

Other teams with multiple mid round picks:
CAR: Round 2 (2x), Round 3 (2x)
TBL: Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (2x)
DET: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x)
NSH: Round 2 (2x), Round 3 (2x)

Of note, I find it interesting that some of these teams are rebuilding (DET, OTT, LAK), some are mid-stride (CAR, MTL, NSH) with TBL being the only team in a legitimate window to contend for the next few years. As such, TBL would probably be the hardest to pry surplus picks out of due to them needing talent percolating in the minors to replace skill leaving in a few years.

jtblack

Math or no Math. If you use the benefit of hindsight, it tells us that YES you can hit on an impact player in the 2nd Round.  But the numbers also clearly show that the odds of getting an impact player is between 6% – 13%. So let’s meet in the middle and call it 10%.  That’s 1 a decade.  

Impact players:
2006 – PETRY, LUCIC, ANISIMOV
2007 – SUBBAN, SIMMONDS
2008 – JOSI, STEPAN, HAMONIC, J SCHULTZ
2009 – O’REILLY, SILVERBERG, TATAR, ORLOV
2010 – J. FAULK, TOFFOLI, ZUCKER
2011 – JENNER, SAAD, W. KARLSSON, KUCHEROV
2012 – NONE (This is probably the worst Draft Class Ever)
2013 – NONE
2014 – NONE
2015 – AHO
2016 – DEBRINCAT, GIRARD

there are obviously quite a few other decent players. I tried to stick to impact players.

Harpers Hair

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jtblack,

There would seem to be a two year window to acquire surplus picks from teams who’ve gathered more picks then they can reasonably integrate into their farm systems.Here’s looking at you, OTT, MTL and LAK.

OTT: Round 1 (3x), Round 2 (4x), Round 3 (2x)
MTL: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (3x), Round 5 (2x)
LAK: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (2x)

Other teams with multiple mid round picks:
CAR: Round 2 (2x), Round 3 (2x)
TBL: Round 3 (2x), Round 4 (2x)
DET: Round 2 (3x), Round 3 (2x)
NSH: Round 2 (2x), Round 3 (2x)

Of note, I find it interesting that some of these teams are rebuilding (DET, OTT, LAK), some are mid-stride (CAR, MTL, NSH) with TBL being the only team in a legitimate window to contend for the next few years.As such, TBL would probably be the hardest to pry surplus picks out of due to them needing talent percolating in the minors to replace skill leaving in a few years.

Thing is, TB drafts so well that they end up trading drafted prospects for players who can help in the short term.

Tony DeAngelo – Rangers
Brett Howden – Rangers
Libor Hajek – Rangers
Adam Erne – Detroit
Connor Ingram – Nashville

And yet they still have former first round picks Cal and Nolan Foote as their top D prospects along with some promising prospects like Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddish in Syracuse.

Then, of course, their ability to hit on players in later rounds is just ridiculous.

Kucherov – 2nd round
Palat – 7th round
Paquette – 4th round
Point – 3rd round
Joseph – 4th round
Cirelli – 3rd round
Stephens – 2nd round

And those are just the players on the current NHL roster

jtblack

Tampa’s excellence is in big part to landing Kucherov and Point …

Both would be considered excellent value if they were chosen in the 1st round …

Harpers Hair

jtblack:
Tampa’s excellence is in big part to landing Kucherov and Point …

Both would be considered excellent value if they were chosen in the 1st round …

And the others named would have been value if picked in the second round.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harpers Hair,

Agreed, their ability to suss out and develop late round picks is reminiscent of DET in the 90s-00s.

That they trade strong prospects for roster players is a good point. That may be our best avenue to procuring some quality from them as they are loaded with draft picks. Wouldn’t blame them for wanting to make their own picks, if it ain’t broke and all. Although they’re going to be needing to dump salary rather than take it on.

Players like Maroon, Bogosian, Schenn and Shattenkirk are all UFAs and will need to be replaced if not resigned.

Pending RFAs of note include: Sergachev and Cirelli.

Perhaps we can fill a roster need for them and recoup a surplus pick for the trouble.

Yeti

OriginalPouzar: I ask what you see in this player in particular?

Sure, he had better numbers in the AHL that Stuart Skinner but they were still VERY middling numbers and he’s almost two years older than Skinner.I don’t see anything in his numbers that would suggest he’s NHL ready at 23.

I acknowledge his numbers in Liiga and internationally but based on his first year North American season, am I missing something?

Nothing more than:

(1) despite his down-arrows year in the AHL, prior to that he won the best SM Liiga goaltender trophy in consecutive years and – in 2019 – led the league in goals-against average at 1.58 and in save percentage at .933

(2) he’d be more useful than Matt Cairns by some margin

Not saying he’s going to make it at the NHL, but he’d be a very useful addition to our goalie pool.

OriginalPouzar

Goldobin joining Slepy:

Rick Dhaliwal@DhaliwalSports

Just had a brief talk with Nikolay Goldobin about signing in Russia for the next 2 years.

“The #Canucks did not want to sign me, I was disappointed how it turned out in VAN but I am happy to sign in KHL and will try NHL again in 2 years.”

327
9:20 AM – Apr 11, 2020

Munny

Harpers Hair:
Nikolay Goldobin signs a two year contract in the KHL.

Just another European opting to play close to home.

I don’t blame him. He had nothing left to learn in the A… at least with regards to offense.

Harpers Hair

Munny: I don’t blame him. He had nothing left to learn in the A… at least with regards to offense.

His problem in both San Jose and Vancouver was consistent effort.

It caught up to him.

Bruce McCurdy

Hear, hear. This has been hard to accept. By all accounts Colby was a first-class individual. 25-year-old athlete goes to bed, never wakes up.

Devastated for his young wife in particular. Married less than a year.

London Jon

Very sad to hear the news about Colby Cave.

It’s front page on the BBC website, which hockey NEVER is.

Strange to find out the news that way as it’s such a surprise. And I also thought the procedure sounded relatively straightforward despite the induced coma.

RIP Colby. Far, far too soon. Although what a battler to fight through being undrafted to make the NHL. A man who absolutely made the most of his opportunities and scrapped for every inch of progress.

jtblack

Lowetide:
One thing we need to remember is luck, good and bad. Barry Fraser was skilled but also lucky, and spent 15 years in a job without getting enough done.

Tampa Bay is enjoying great returns from the 2011 and 2012 drafts, with three nice kickers from 2014 and 2015. History tells us sustain is the most difficult skill, tougher years are ahead. Consistent success at the draft table is elusive.

IMO it has more to it than just luck. Tampa did very well for 6 years in a row .. 2010-2015.

rickithebear

RIP!

I was worried they were not at his bed side.
But they were!

jtblack

Lowetide: Sure. Barry Fraser drafted better than anyone in history 1979-83. He drafted a baker’s dozen worth of good players, several great and a few made the HHOF.

If the Lightning draft brilliantly 2016-20 that’ll be 10 great years of drafting. How many organizations have had 10 years straight of great drafting?

Not even Pollock did it and he was drafting kids who were 20.

2008- They had 1 pick (Stamkos) in the top 115 and stil had 4 players play 100 games
2009 – Hedman & Panik
2016 – Howden was chosen 5 picks before Benson. Traded in the McDonaugh deal, Howden has 2 full seasons in the NHL. Hajek also had a cup of coffee with NYR last year. 2 Good arrows already (although they won’t play for Tampa).

Prob different scouts during those years, but really Tampa has already done well from 2008 – 2016 (which is 9 years) …

jtblack

would be interesting to see which organization has put together the best 10 year run …

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: Sure. Barry Fraser drafted better than anyone in history 1979-83. He drafted a baker’s dozen worth of good players, several great and a few made the HHOF.

If the Lightning draft brilliantly 2016-20 that’ll be 10 great years of drafting. How many organizations have had 10 years straight of great drafting?

Not even Pollock did it and he was drafting kids who were 20.

Pollock for the most part was drafting in a six team league and was able to bend the rules often.

Bruce McCurdy

If not actually write the rules…

godot10

We applaud Captain Kirk for doing this.

We smirked at Spock for trying to follow the pre-ordained rules in the Kobyashi Maru scenario.

pts2pndr

Curious but wasn’t that through the time that Montreal had first pick of the kids from Quebec and then picked in order from the rest of players available.

jtblack

how about the best 1 year draft?

AVALANCHE 2009

#3 – DUCHENE
#33 – O’REILLY
#64 – BARRIE

Ok then.

godot10

1) Lowe, Messier, Anderson (and signing Huddy as a undrafted free agent).
2) Coffey, Kurri, Moog.

jtblack

Yah, those would be near or at the Top … Holy Crap … I knew they were good but forgot how good …

jp

Also Walt Poddubny (468-184-238-422 career) in 1980.

Just remarkable stuff.

Add in Fuhr and Smith in 1981 and that might be a good enough 3 year run to beat any other teams 10 years (maybe not). 6 Hall of Famers drafted in 3 years.

jp

Looking at the 72-81 Islanders as LT mentioned. Damn. That beats those 3 Oiler years I think. Only 5 HOFers though 🙂

jtblack

DUCKS 2003

#19- GETZLAF
#28 – PERRY
#186 – DREW MILLER (571 gms played)
#250 – SHANE O’BRIEN (537 gms played)

SwedishPoster

Terrible news about Colby Cave. Real gutpunch when I saw the news. My deepest to his family and loved ones. Way too young.

Long interview with Filip Berglund in swedish media today, don’t have time for a full translation, maybe tomorrow, but the biggest takeaway was that him and the Oilers has ”a good contact” but nothing signed yet. He also said he doesn’t feel ready to come over next season, he wants to take another step in the SHL before giving the NHL a try. Feels he has things he needs to develop before he can make an impact. To me it sounds like he’ll sign but then be loaned back to Sweden where he’ll be reunited with his former coach. If I’m reading between the lines correctly the reason he signed with a new SHL team is because he wants to be used as a true #1D in the SHL before coming over. Don’t think his ambition is to end up as depth NHL D, he wants to give himself a proper chance to be a top 4 NHL D down the line and thus don’t want to risk coming over too quickly.

Harpers Hair

Bruce McCurdy:
If not actually write the rules…

Amen.

defmn

jtblack: 100%.But I think we can agree that a team cannot go into draft after draft with 4 or 5 picks … If KH wants to build this out properly, they need as close to a full slate as possible for the next 2 – 3 years …

Long term success in a capped league is obviously tied to drafting and I fully expect Holland to try and grab a pick for Benning. If he gets a 6th for KRussell I will call that a win as well.

But the thing about draft picks after the 1st round is that you are almost always looking at 4 years before they are a help to an NHL team so they are very much in the ‘long term success’ column. There are exceptions, of course, but they are more in the ‘I found a ten dollar bill on the floor of the bus’ category.

But while long term success is tied to good drafting you have to have short term success first so that it can grow into long term.

This team has holes. We all know where they are and more or less agree on the urgency of filling them so while I agree that drafting has to be the path to success year over year you have to get those 12 ‘core’ positions filled first so that we don’t waste more McDavid and Draisaitl years.

Right now I am in the ‘3rd line centre is the biggest need’ camp. I don’t for a minute think the Oilers have an asset in the minors that can get that player by himself but there are some pieces that might help if they can find a team that has a different set of needs or scenarios.

Is Jones blocked by Nurse and Klefbom with top 4 potential? I can see an argument for that. Samoroukov and Broberg are also in any conversation about future LD’s.

Does Jones (who I really like – even more than most) plus Puljujarvi get you a 22-23 year old centre in the AHL built to play 3rd line minutes within the next year? Is Puljujarvi even necessary to that discussion?

I don’t know the answer to those questions and I am as reluctant as anybody to trade one of our young dmen because they all look so shiny and bright right now but I want a young defensively minded centre for that spot and I have limited purchasing power so I am reluctant to spend any of it on draft picks until my current roster is filled in.

And that is why I don’t trade young Jesse this summer for a promise that is 4 years in the future. I hold all my chips until I see the prize I want.

Other than that I don’t care if Jesse stays in Europe for another year. The Oilers own his rights until he is 27, I believe, and his value can go down some but not enough that I am willing to move him until I see if he can help me fill the current roster with a prospect rather than a draft pick.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The fLames got a 4th from BUF for Frolik. Same salary, less valuable player.

The NTC adds a layer of difficulty, however.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

JP+ for Domi would solve a lot of problems, salary aside to reup Max for term.

Haula is one of my top 3C targets. Fooling around with the ArmchairGM feature on CapFriendly has him as a viable acquisition target in the UFA market for <$3.5M (pending minor raises to reup other current roster players like AA, pEnnis, Green, Bear etc). Whether that's realistic/doable or not is another matter entirely.