Fire

Remember when this blog was devoted to finding a No.1 center? It wasn’t that long ago (it was a long time ago). Then came Nuge, Leon and McDavid and now the position is stunning. A team does need four of them and this Oilers team is a little shy. Somehow.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
  • Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
  • Jonathan Willis: Flashback: When ‘Oil Change’ revealed key details of Oilers’ 1979, 2010 drafts
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s Sports Hall of Fame should have 3 founding members
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 20

LOWETIDE 2020 DRAFT 81-102 NHLE

This is the final group, I’ve published 93 names and there are nine more here. I’ll get to 120 in the coming weeks, the next update will probably be Top 100 and will arrive before the end of April. Expect a lot of change, there are no games to come and we’re dealing with final numbers.

From this group, Co, Gogolev and Wisdom probably move up. Kuznetsov is just outside Craig Button’s first round, and No. 102 on mine. That’s a player I may have artificially low (he’s very young in the NCAA).

MCDAVID VIA PUCK IQ

McDavid’s performance against elites is searing, majestic. He wins across the board against the gritensity bin, although you’d like to see more of a gap. Middle? Poor. Why?

My article at The Athletic today is about the most dynamic scoring lines in the Oilers 40-year history. McDavid’s best is near the top if you adjust for era, and that’s a damned tough list. I think the article also shows that Gretzky (and Messier) were blessed with two quality offensive wingers in their best seasons. Draisaitl is an impact partner in crime. The Oilers need to find a complete line for 97 and right soon.

DRAISAITL VIA PUCK IQ

Draisaitl’s numbers (like McDavid) against elite and gritensity bins are excellent and solid, respectfully. Middle opposition? Not so good although not the goal differential free fall we see with the captain. Wonderful player. Both of the top two centers outscored opponents at five on five in ’19-20, that’s progress. Both men outscored elites impressively, need the top two lines to dominate the middle and gritensity bins. My answers are a more substantial No. 3 line and an upgrade in net. Your answers?

SHEAHAN VIA PUCK IQ

Sheahan performed well against the middle bin but struggled agains the elites (expected) in a surprisingly large sample size. Against the gritensity group his group allowed too many goals while not scoring at all. Probably better suited to 4C duties. It’s also true it took some time to find the range for this player, I think he returns.

HAAS VIA PUCK IQ

Haas had a haappening season, with the only issue being how much offense he can bring to the NHL. His possession and outscoring numbers are good, this is a solid year. I don’t know if he’s a center but definitely worth a contract. HOW did he play with the group assigned to him and get these numbers? He’s Hooudini!

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65 Responses to "Fire"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    A question re: PuckIQ – how does it proceeds when the forwards faced and defensive pairing faced don’t line up? For example, lets say McDavid is out there against the Doughty pairing but the Lewis line as oppossed to the Kopitar or Brown line?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know that Nygard was 6-2 goals with McDavid in about 50 minutes.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A question re: PuckIQ – how does it proceeds when the forwards faced and defensive pairing faced don’t line up? For example, lets say McDavid is out there against the Doughty pairing but the Lewis line as oppossed to the Kopitar or Brown line?

    Puck IQ doesn’t track defensemen, only forwards. So, you mention Doughty, if you go to the WOWY page, you can see he plays 225 of his 440 elite minutes with Anze Kopitar

    http://www.puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8474563&teammate=8471685

    98 of the other minutes were spent with Jeff Carter, just 73 with Lizotte and 49 minutes with Amadio.

  4. Harpers Hair says:

    Dustin Byfugliens contract with the Jets has been terminated.

  5. andyz says:

    Remember when Strome had a happening season going but couldn’t find the offense? I do.

  6. Louis Levasseur says:

    Not related to this thread, but does anybody know how TSN or SportsNet chooses which classic games to air? I’m not complaining and I do like watching them, but what I really wonder is why we haven’t seen the ’72 Series or the old Canada Cups. Is it a rights holder thing? I think it would be cool to run that ’72 series in the time slots normally reserved for HNIC.

  7. Jaxon says:

    I was hoping the Oilers would pick Gogolev in the later rounds at the 2018 draft. I really don’t understand how he slipped through his projected 5×5 Primary Points was really good in his draft season. Now he’s coming off a strong 20-year-old season and will go straight into the AHL next year.

    He showed very well in the OHL coaches poll:
    Most Dangerous in Goal Area:

    Eastern Conference:
    1. Nick Robertson, Peterborough Petes (36)
    2. Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton Bulldogs (27) – finished second in 2018-19
    3. Jack Quinn, Ottawa 67’s (21)

    Western Conference:
    1. Connor McMichael, London Knights (36)
    2. Pavel Gogolev, Guelph Storm (35)
    3. Jonathan Yantsis, Kitchener Rangers (7) – finished third in 2018-19

    Most Dangerous in Goal Area:

    Eastern Conference:
    1. Nick Robertson, Peterborough Petes (36)
    2. Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton Bulldogs (27) – finished second in 2018-19
    3. Jack Quinn, Ottawa 67’s (21)

    Western Conference:
    1. Connor McMichael, London Knights (36)
    2. Pavel Gogolev, Guelph Storm (35)
    3. Jonathan Yantsis, Kitchener Rangers (7) – finished third in 2018-19

    Best Shootout Shooter:

    Eastern Conference:
    1. Marco Rossi, Ottawa 67’s (29)
    2. Nick Robertson, Peterborough Petes (23)
    3. Philip Tomasino, Oshawa Generals (12)

    Western Conference:
    1. Cole Perfetti, Saginaw Spirit (25)
    2. Liam Hawel, Kitchener Rangers (21)
    3. Pavel Gogolev, Guelph Storm (18)

    This is how he lined up with other Oiler picks in 2018 when I thought they should invite him to training camp:

    This is what I wrote in August of 2018 (Nielsen led the Vancouver Giants in scoring this season):

    “Canadian Junior and USHL forwards that have been in the Oilers system (or camp invites) since 2005 draft. McLeod does not show well here. This is their Projected (Age/Era/TOI Adjusted) 5v5 Primary Points from their draft season:

    YEAR Name Projected 5v5 P1 Pts
    2015 Connor McDavid 44
    2007 Sam Gagner 32
    2010 Taylor Hall 30
    2011 Ryan Strome 28
    2014 Leon Draisaitl 26
    2008 Jordan Eberle 25
    2018 Tristen Nielsen (last 39 GP) 25
    2005 Gilbert Brule 25
    2017 Kailer Yamamoto 24
    2005 Benoit Pouliot 23
    2012 Nail Yakupov 23
    2011 Ty Rattie 22
    2009 Taylor Beck 21
    2016 Tyler Benson 21
    2005 Ryan O’Marra 20
    2015 Tyler Soy 20
    2014 Rihards Bukarts 20
    2013 Greg Chase 19
    2018 Pavel Gogolev 19
    2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 19
    2014 Vladimir Tkachev 19
    2011 Tobias Rieder 19
    2012 Mitchell Moroz 18
    2012 Daniil Zharkov 18
    2009 Zack Kassian 18
    2017 Kirill Maksimov 17
    2013 Jackson Houck 17
    2013 Kyle Platzer 17
    2009 Mitchell Callahan 16
    2010 Curtis Hamilton 16
    2013 Marc-Olivier Roy 15
    2011 Mitch Holmberg 15
    2018 Ryan McLeod 15
    2007 C.J. Stretch 15
    2017 Trey Fix-Wolansky 14
    2006 Milan Lucic 13
    2002 Kyle Brodziak 13
    2014 Chad Butcher 13
    2011 Travis Ewanyk 12
    2015 Cameron Hebig 11
    2011 Joshua Winquist 11

    PS – added Tristen Nielsen and Pavel Gogolev as I think they should be training camp invites or signed to ELCs.

    PPS Here is my formula for Projected 5v5 Primary Points:
    (Estimated 5v5 Primary Points/60 (via prospect-stats.com) ) / (60 minutes) x (Median Forward 5v5 TOI for Top 6 in the NHL of 14.416667 via NHL.com) x (82 Games) x (Age Adjustment to 17.5 years old (1-(Draft Age on Sept.15 – 17.5) x 0.1672 via Rhys Jessop’s formula)) x (League Equivalency Adjustment Via Vollman’s Updated Numbers) x (League Specific Era Adjustment) x (Inflation Factor of 1.525 to bring Numbers in line with players who jumped directly into the NHL)”

  8. hunter1909 says:

    Shawn Horcoff

    Rob Schremp.

    *runs*

  9. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Dustin Byfugliens contract with the Jets has been terminated.

    Smart team the Jets.

  10. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: Smart team the Jets.

    They’re very well positioned to cope with a flat or reduced cap.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Seravalli:

    Dustin Byfuglien did not receive any money from #nhljets as part of agreeing to resolve his grievance and terminate his contract. He walked away from $14 million due to him over this season and next.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

  13. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

    Pretty much as expected. But is there any explanation as to how this will work with escrow or over time to lessen escrow?

  14. Gerta Rauss says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Dustin Byfugliens contract with the Jets has been terminated.

    Curious…I thought clearing unconditional waivers was part of the process of mutually terminating a contract but I guess these things are fluid

  15. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

    Just a guess, but probably no compliance buyouts if the cap isn’t actually shrinking. Gonna be tough for a lot of teams. Should be an interesting summer on many many levels.

  16. jp says:

    That was Nygard I think.

    Haas was 0-1 in 2:30 (minutes) with McDavid.

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Pretty much as expected. But is there any explanation as to how this will work with escrow or over time to lessen escrow?

    I imagine that will be subject to whether or not the current season is completed.

  18. PennersPancakes says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

    Lebrun already saying that is inaccurate. Could definitely be the result but nothing has been decided yet.

    https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1251199034620076034

  19. BONE207 says:

    LT: McDavid’s performance against elites is searing, majestic. He wins across the board against the gritensity bin, although you’d like to see more of a gap. Middle? Poor. Why?

    I’m pretty sure it’s because of the damn left wingers!!! Zack’s numbers are all 50% & above. Even he could be improved upon but certainly a left winger for CONNOR is imperative. Taylor Hall it is…

  20. PennersPancakes says:

    jp: Just a guess, but probably no compliance buyouts if the cap isn’t actually shrinking. Gonna be tough for a lot of teams. Should be an interesting summer on many many levels.

    I dont think a flat cap excludes the possibility of a compliance buyout, even though its not decreasing teams were planning for 84-88. Brian Burke hassaid hes already heard discussions about buyouts being a possibility.

    Also about half of the teams were over the cap last year using LTIR. Anything is possible.

  21. BONE207 says:

    LT: My answers are a more substantial No. 3 line and an upgrade in net. Your answers?

    Would CONNOR & Leon be playing too much, thus their numbers against the middle/gritensity drop off? When they get double shifted, playing with lesser capabilities & unfamiliar line-mates could also be a factor. Certainly this would cause trouble defensively & greater goals against. We have Anthanasiou in our basket of hope along with Nygard and perhaps some sprouting magic bean.

    Hopefully a magic bean can sprout throughout this pandemic & fill a role. Depending on when hockey resumes, that may allow for someone to graduate into the big club. If only the Oilers had some secret training location to develop these guys. Where did Molson have that mountain top ice rink for the shinny match for the winner & 11 friends? That would be perfect.

  22. jp says:

    PennersPancakes: I dont think a flat cap excludes the possibility of a compliance buyout, even though its not decreasing teams were planning for 84-88. Brian Burke hassaid hes already heard discussions about buyouts being a possibility.

    Also about half of the teams were over the cap last year using LTIR.Anything is possible.

    Just speculating, for sure they would still be possible.

    If the owners do push for buyouts I guess we can infer most are not hurting too badly financially.

  23. slopitch says:

    The Seattle money couldnt come at a better time…

  24. Harpers Hair says:

    slopitch:
    The Seattle money couldnt come at a better time…

    Not HRR.

  25. Victoria Oil says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks for all your analysis on prospects. Much appreciated.

  26. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Not HRR.

    But it does give the owners a little wiggle room to cap escrow over a period of years so as to smooth out the pain.

    It also gives Gary a bargaining chip should he choose to, say, persue a 10 year CBA.

    There is a lot of money at stake and you can’t expect 31 teams to all have the same take on things but having two professionals in Fehr and Bettman puts the league in better condition than a lot of years in the past when one or both sides were headed by bozos.

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: But it does give the owners a little wiggle room to cap escrow over a period of years so as to smooth out the pain.

    It also gives Gary a bargaining chip should he choose to, say, persue a 10 year CBA.

    There is a lot of money at stake and you can’t expect 31 teams to all have the same take on things but having two professionals in Fehr and Bettman puts the league in better condition than a lot of years in the past when one or both sides were headed by bozos.

    Agree completely.

    I keep thinking how the biggest beneficiary in all this might be Eugene Melnyk.

    Along with all those draft picks, the league in general is now coming back to him financially.

    Will have to do a deeper dive.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    BONE207: LT: My answers are a more substantial No. 3 line and an upgrade in net. Your answers?

    Would CONNOR & Leon be playing too much, thus their numbers against the middle/gritensity drop off? When they get double shifted, playing with lesser capabilities & unfamiliar line-mates could also be a factor. Certainly this would cause trouble defensively & greater goals against. We have Anthanasiou in our basket of hope along with Nygard and perhaps some sprouting magic bean.

    That’s pretty much solved by having a more substantial 3rd line, isn’t it?

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I still think Huge on 3rd line is ideal

    – Then again, I was all about CmD and Drai on differetn lines

    – The push back to that was: “its so important to have a dominante first line, Drai can’t C a 2nd line, they have so much chem” That was all wrong

    – RNH: they say: “you can’t put him there, he gets too little minutes, its not a good use of money”

    – I’d love to see it: that’s a team that the NHL hasn’t seen: 3 scoring lines:

    Nygard-McD-Kass
    Benson/etc-Drai-Kailer
    Jar/Archi/etc-RNH-Pool

    – Or something like that: dont’ know untill you try. Was so pleased with validation of the 2 C’s.

    – Massive torque with three C’s IMO. Fill in some of the W’s

  30. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

    Did they tell them the escrow number? i.e. the conversion rate of cap dollars to real dollars.

  31. godot10 says:

    defmn: But it does give the owners a little wiggle room to cap escrow over a period of years so as to smooth out the pain.

    It also gives Gary a bargaining chip should he choose to, say, persue a 10 year CBA.

    There is a lot of money at stake and you can’t expect 31 teams to all have the same take on things but having two professionals in Fehr and Bettman puts the league in better condition than a lot of years in the past when one or both sides were headed by bozos.

    HRR is going to collapse significantly. There is no real way to buffer the players from that collapse. They are likely playing in empty buildings next year.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    That was Nygard I think.

    Haas was 0-1 in 2:30 (minutes) with McDavid.

    Yes, sorry, I mixed my older European tweeners (although this blog may be succeeding in showing they are more than tweeners…….).

    Thank you.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Puck IQ doesn’t track defensemen, only forwards. So, you mention Doughty, if you go to the WOWY page, you can see he plays 225 of his 440 elite minutes with Anze Kopitar

    http://www.puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8474563&teammate=8471685

    98 of the other minutes were spent with Jeff Carter, just 73 with Lizotte and 49 minutes with Amadio.

    Interesting – thank you.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Andy Strickland reports that NHL players have been told via conference call that the cap will remain flat next season at $81.5 milllion.

    What some (many) anticipated – of course, all payments make in to escrow this year will be clawed back by the owners and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with escrow for next year and how long the owners are willing to take to be made “whole”.

    I anticipate a formal agreement (potentially via a short term CBA extension/amendment or a full on new CBA with term) to keep the cap essentially flat over a certain time period (3 years maybe) subject to, of course, revenues spiking massively.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Just a guess, but probably no compliance buyouts if the cap isn’t actually shrinking. Gonna be tough for a lot of teams. Should be an interesting summer on many many levels.

    I think you are probably right and, if this proceeds the way it looks like it might, was predicted/speculated by some. I just don’t think that the owners would have the appetite for massive buyouts like the past. Of course, there would be some but I don’t think 2/3 of the teams would use them like the past.

    I’m not sure that Katz would have agreed to buyout James Neal. I’m not sure that he wouldn’t either, of course, however, if you would have asked me a year ago, or even 2 months ago, I would opined that he would without batting a lash.

    Disposing of the K. Russell contract as clean as possible will become even more important (and even harder a task).

    Ethan Bear, welcome to your bridge deal of 2 X $2.75M – lets hope you get PAID in 2 years (i.e. major succes).

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE207:
    LT:McDavid’s performance against elites is searing, majestic. He wins across the board against the gritensity bin, although you’d like to see more of a gap. Middle? Poor. Why?

    I’m pretty sure it’s because of the damn left wingers!!! Zack’s numbers are all 50% & above. Even he could be improved upon but certainly a left winger for CONNOR is imperative. Taylor Hall it is…

    but, but, but, the LW issue doesn’t seem to be there against elites…….

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Not HRR.

    Very true but it is cash on the owners’ pockets which they may, or may not, put in to the system.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Very true but it is cash on the owners’ pockets which they may, or may not, put in to the system.

    Some will some won’t.

    Going forward, if games are played without fans, the teams with massive local TV revenues will have a huge advantage.

    Think NYR, TOR, MTL, NJD, CHI, VCR.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I still think Huge on 3rd line is ideal

    – Then again, I was all about CmD and Drai on differetn lines

    – The push back to that was: “its so important to have a dominante first line, Drai can’t C a 2nd line, they have so much chem”That was all wrong

    – RNH: they say: “you can’t put him there, he gets too little minutes, its not a good use of money”

    – I’d love to see it: that’s a team that the NHL hasn’t seen: 3 scoring lines:

    Nygard-McD-Kass
    Benson/etc-Drai-Kailer
    Jar/Archi/etc-RNH-Pool

    – Or something like that: dont’ know untill you try.Was so pleased with validation of the 2 C’s.

    – Massive torquewith three C’s IMO.Fill in some of the W’s

    I’ve generally been all for the 3 center split and don’t have a concern about Nuge’s overall minutes given PP1 and PK2 (sometimes PK1 if injuries).

    With that said, I’m coming to the conclusion that Nuge might just be better as a winger and skilled line. His defensive responsibilities are lowered but not entirely as he helps take some of the defensive pressure off his center (Drai) making his center better offensively.

    You lineup has Nuge with 2 fourth liners and Puljujarvi – taking away that Puljujarvi as an Oiler is very non-realistic, that doesn’t set up 3 scoring lines and inserting Nygard as 1LW and Benson as 2LW, well, both of those lines have massive question marks now.

    I’m as big a Benson supporter as there is out there but I don’t think its prudent to go in to the season counting on him as a top 6 left winger (in particular with the 1LW barely established as an NHL player himself and nowhere near established as an NHL top 6 player).

    I don’t think current organizational depth allow this at this time.

  40. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I still think Huge on 3rd line is ideal

    – Then again, I was all about CmD and Drai on differetn lines

    – The push back to that was: “its so important to have a dominante first line, Drai can’t C a 2nd line, they have so much chem”That was all wrong

    – RNH: they say: “you can’t put him there, he gets too little minutes, its not a good use of money”

    – I’d love to see it: that’s a team that the NHL hasn’t seen: 3 scoring lines:

    Nygard-McD-Kass
    Benson/etc-Drai-Kailer
    Jar/Archi/etc-RNH-Pool

    – Or something like that: dont’ know untill you try.Was so pleased with validation of the 2 C’s.

    – Massive torquewith three C’s IMO.Fill in some of the W’s

    I am leaning this way as well.
    It may be cheaper, and easier, to fill the holes on the wing than at 3C.
    I understand the ice time issue, but if Nuge remains on PP1 and PK2, I don’t really think ice time will be a problem.

  41. jp says:

    Jaxon: I was hoping the Oilers would pick Gogolev in the later rounds at the 2018 draft. I really don’t understand how he slipped through his projected 5×5 Primary Points was really good in his draft season. Now he’s coming off a strong 20-year-old season and will go straight into the AHL next year.

    Thanks, looks like a good target.

  42. jp says:

    BONE207:
    LT: My answers are a more substantial No. 3 line and an upgrade in net. Your answers?

    Would CONNOR & Leon be playing too much, thus their numbers against the middle/gritensity drop off? When they get double shifted, playing with lesser capabilities & unfamiliar line-mates could also be a factor. Certainly this would cause trouble defensively & greater goals against. We have Anthanasiou in our basket of hope along with Nygardand perhaps some sprouting magic bean.

    Hopefully a magic bean can sprout throughout this pandemic & fill a role. Depending on when hockey resumes, that may allow for someone to graduate into the big club. If only the Oilers had some secret training location to develop these guys. Where did Molson have that mountain top ice rink for the shinny match for the winner & 11 friends? That would be perfect.

    I actually feel pretty good with the LW depth chart as Nuge, Athanasiou, Neal, Nygard, Benson. Neal is too expensive but he’s not totally useless IMO. Benson is pushing…

  43. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, sorry, I mixed my older European tweeners (although this blog may be succeeding in showing they are more than tweeners…….).

    Thank you.

    Time will tell if they’re tweeners I guess. If they have staying power they’re not. Nygard has the leg up at this point.

  44. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think you are probably right and, if this proceeds the way it looks like it might, was predicted/speculated by some. I just don’t think that the owners would have the appetite for massive buyouts like the past. Of course, there would be some but I don’t think 2/3 of the teams would use them like the past.

    I’m not sure that Katz would have agreed to buyout James Neal. I’m not sure that he wouldn’t either, of course, however, if you would have asked me a year ago, or even 2 months ago, I would opined that he would without batting a lash.

    Disposing of the K. Russell contract as clean as possible will become even more important (and even harder a task).

    Ethan Bear, welcome to your bridge deal of 2 X $2.75M – lets hope you get PAID in 2 years (i.e. major succes).

    Yeah it definitely could be more difficult to move on from Neal and Russell. And if so we can say goodby to outside improvements.

    Bear for sure will be getting a bridge, maybe only 1 year. No new 3C (or not one making more than ~$1M). A lotta teams are going to face this stuff though.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Remember last summer, we were hoping/praying for Marody and/or Benson to “pop” and earn themselves roster spots. Shit, lets hope/pray again:

    AA/McDavid/Kass
    Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
    Nygard/Marody/Neal
    Khaira/Sheahan/Archbald

    Chiasson

    Maybe Nygard can see some 1LW time to see if that 75% (6-2) goal differential with McDavid has legs….

  46. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Remember last summer, we were hoping/praying for Marody and/or Benson to “pop” and earn themselves roster spots.Shit, lets hope/pray again:

    AA/McDavid/Kass
    Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
    Nygard/Marody/Neal
    Khaira/Sheahan/Archbald

    Chiasson

    Maybe Nygard can see some 1LW time to see if that 75% (6-2) goal differential with McDavid has legs….

    I was just doing that (and checking what the reality with a flat cap an no buyouts would look like). Mine looks much the same and honestly it’s not a bad lineup – should have made the playoffs this year.

    AA-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald
    Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
    Benson-Haas

    Substitute different $1M Cs for Haas/Sheahan if you like, but there won’t be any money for upgrades. Keeping most of the current band together would be very tough.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who,

    I forgot about AA: makes it easier

    AA-McD-Kass
    Nygard-Drai-Kailer
    Jar-RNH-Pool

    – Anyway some combo. It you out RNH on his own line it’s the same cascading effect as when they moved Drai amd CMD to different lines: other team can’t focus on shutting down one group. Wingers play better with good Cs and now you have a third line C who is elite playing against weaker competition and he gets even weaker competition

    – It was totally my argument for splitting up McD amd Drai: the wingers will suddenly be better. Put RNH on a third line his wingers will be suddenly really good relative to other teams third lines big time.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfortunately, in my opinion, that third line just doesn’t work.

    JJ and Nuge played about 118 minutes together this past season with just awful results – their being caved in possession was only dwarfed by the caving in goal share.

    In over 300 minutes together over the last 3 years, results for the two are similar.

    On the other side is a player that won’t sign a contract to play for the Oilers (and also has horrible numbers with Nuge over 3 years).

  49. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Unfortunately, in my opinion, that third line just doesn’t work.

    JJ and Nuge played about 118 minutes together this past season with just awful results – their being caved in possession was only dwarfed by the caving in goal share.

    In over 300 minutes together over the last 3 years, results for the two are similar.

    On the other side is a player that won’t sign a contract to play for the Oilers (and also has horrible numbers with Nuge over 3 years).

    Not to mention that putting Nuge in the 3C slot is pretty much guaranteed to see him walk after next season as a UFA.

    After all the years of failure in this city he finally gets some success playing with skill and ‘poof’ he’s relegated back to the 3rd line.

    Not sure that is going to make Nuge feel wanted enough that he wants to stay.

  50. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jp: I was just doing that (and checking what the reality with a flat cap an no buyouts would look like). Mine looks much the same and honestly it’s not a bad lineup – should have made the playoffs this year.

    AA-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald
    Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
    Benson-Haas

    Substitute different $1M Cs for Haas/Sheahan if you like, but there won’t be any money for upgrades. Keeping most of the current band together would be very tough.

    – the difference between my RNH and your Sheenan as 3C though is incredibly massive IMO

    – Suddenly all the wingers look better. Nygard and archi are meh with a 3C like Sheehan. RNH rises the tide so much IMO. Every winger is way better with elite Cs. And they are not as good with mediocre Cs.

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    defmn: Not to mention that putting Nuge in the 3C slot is pretty much guaranteed to see him walk after next season as a UFA.

    After all the years of failure in this city he finally gets some success playing with skill and ‘poof’ he’s relegated back to the 3rd line.

    Not sure that is going to make Nuge feel wanted enough that he wants to stay.

    – Or he makes hay on a third line crushing weaker opponents and lesser D than he’s ever faced in his career and still gets PP1 time and a few minutes of RNH-McD-Drai when team needs it,

    – Dont know untill you try. It was only speculation what McD and Drai looked line on different lines untill it happened.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge has been tried with “lesser wingers” and, god love him, as he’s not an elite C, it has shown not to work.

    He has shown to have very poor results with the wingers you propose for him.

  53. Georges says:

    “McDavid’s performance against elites is searing, majestic. He wins across the board against the gritensity bin, although you’d like to see more of a gap. Middle? Poor. Why?”

    Yeah, I don’t get it. It’s just like the Nurse numbers you shared from the other night.

    WG has this quote at the top of his post explaining WoodMoney:

    “The next big thing (in hockey analytics) will be to define the context of ice time … quality of competition. Who you play against matters a ton.” – Vic Ferrari (Tim Barnes)

    And yet the numbers you have up there show CMD and Drai doing better against the PuckIQ elites than against the non-elites. That kind of result isn’t… what’s the word… coherent. It doesn’t make sense against the background of “who you play against matters a ton”. How do you get better/worse results against tougher/weaker competition?

    Or maybe it does make sense. Maybe PuckIQ started with that premise, did a lot of work, and arrived in the exact opposite spot: “who you play against DOESN’T matter a ton” They disproved the hypothesis.

    It could be a problem with their methodology (how they define their tiers), it could be a problem of trying to apply that methodology to the results in one season. Not a lot of data to start with and then they partition it into smaller segments based on quality of competition. The samples get noisier and noisier.

    Doesn’t it give you some pause though? Do you think PuckIQ has shown that “who you play against matters a ton”?

  54. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    who,

    I forgot about AA: makes it easier

    AA-McD-Kass
    Nygard-Drai-Kailer
    Jar-RNH-Pool

    – Anyway some combo. It you out RNH on his own line it’s the same cascading effect as when they moved Drai amd CMD to different lines: other team can’t focus on shutting down one group. Wingers play better with good Cs and now you have a third line C who is elite playing against weaker competition and he gets even weaker competition

    – It was totally my argument for splitting up McD amd Drai: the wingers will suddenly be better. Put RNH on a third line his wingers will be suddenly really good relative to other teams third lines big time.

    Yeah I’m right there with you.
    And you haven’t spent 3 million on a 3rd line center so maybe you could add a 3 million dollar winger. Or even a Tyler Ennis type.

  55. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – the difference between my RNH and your Sheenan as 3C though is incredibly massive IMO

    – Suddenly all the wingers look better. Nygard and archi are meh witha 3C like Sheehan. RNH rises the tide so much IMO. Every winger is way better with elite Cs. And they are not as good with mediocre Cs.

    I see what you’re saying. And maybe it would work.

    What we do know is that Nuge has been exceptional as a top 6 winger. He’s also played 1113 minutes over the past 2 seasons without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice with him and the Oilers generated 43.5% of the shots and 43.4% of the goals in those minutes.

    I’m not sure Nuge is as big an upgrade as you think. And if he has his own line you also need to play it more than the 10:00 5v5 minutes a night that Sheahan was getting.

  56. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Or he makes hay on a third line crushing weaker opponents and lesser D than he’s ever faced in his career and still gets PP1 time and a few minutes of RNH-McD-Drai when team needs it,

    – Dont know untill you try. It was only speculation what McD and Drai looked line on different lines untill it happened.

    I’ve spent seasons insisting that Drai an Connor needed to be on separate lines if this team was ever to progress. For me it was as obvious as obvious can be so you don’t need to make that case for me. I was there the moment they signed their contracts that made it impossible to fill out a second line without splitting them.

    Nuge is different.

    For one thing the Oilers don’t have the wingers to fill out three scoring lines. Some would say they don’t have enough to fill two.

    But the most important thing for me is that Nuge is not built for the 3C position. He is mediocre on face offs at best, he can kill penalties but has never excelled at that job and he should be good for 25 goals on Leon’s wing whereas he would be lucky to get 15 playing on the 3rd line.

    I’d rather play Ennis there if Holland can’t find a better solution.

  57. BONE207 says:

    Yes, you are of course, correct. My point is that if the top lines are top quality players, the quality gets pushed down if we have good options for the top 2 lines. Thus the 3rd/4th lines get better. That’s where AA & Nygard filling some top 6 positions would be huge for the team. 2 different approaches…top down or bottom up. All hamstrung by CAP implications.

  58. jp says:

    I agree, but would note that Nuge has been quite good on the PK the past 2 years, and exceptional this season. He definitely struggled before that.

  59. Genjutsu says:

    Nuge Drai Yamamoto weren’t just one of the best lines in the league last year they were one of the best the league has seen in modern history.

    Why do people want to break that up?

    Why can’t we have nice things?

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Genjutsu:
    Nuge Drai Yamamoto weren’t just one of the best lines in the league last year they were one of the best the league has seen in modern history.

    Why do people want to break that up?

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    Tippett is the head coach, not Lowetide posters who run the gamut from rational to HH and his misguided trolling… exposed by the pandemic to be little more than a result of recency bias from living on that infernal island lol

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    BONE207:
    Yes, you are of course, correct. My point is that if the top lines are top quality players, the quality gets pushed down if we have good options for the top 2 lines. Thus the 3rd/4th lines get better. That’s where AA & Nygard filling some top 6 positions would be huge for the team. 2 different approaches…top down or bottom up. All hamstrung by CAP implications.

    Oh yes, that makes sense. Adding a true top-6 talent (Toffoli or Dadonov, say) gives Tippett more talent to choose from to fill out his bottom-6. I think that’s the best route to take if the cap allows.

  62. Genjutsu says:

    Yeah maybe, but I for one am enjoying his recipes.

    Keep them coming please and thank you.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    This. Times 1000.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I agree, but would note that Nuge has been quite good on the PK the past 2 years, and exceptional this season. He definitely struggled before that.

    I query if part of Nuge’s improvement this season on the PK (at least as far as GA/60 goes) was/is due to playing mostly PK2 as oppossed to PK1 (Sheahan and Archie as PK1).

    The PK forwards will generally change before the PP but I think there may be more PP2 being faced or at least a tired PP1.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Genjutsu:
    Nuge Drai Yamamoto weren’t just one of the best lines in the league last year they were one of the best the league has seen in modern history.

    Why do people want to break that up?

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    Nice things are great – nicer things (like the Stanley Cup are better).

    I don’t think that line should be broken up and, although I’ve been a proponent for the three centers over the years, I go in to this year’s training camp with that line together.

    At the same time, as dominant as that line was this past season, its not to say that there aren’t other arrangements that make the team more likely to win games (not saying there are)

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