Call Me Lightning

by Lowetide

One of the barriers for Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and other AHL Bakersfield Condors hopefuls are men like Joakim Nygard. Older, more experienced, faster and ahead of the group in California on the depth chart. What if none of the kids can catch Nygard?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
  • Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
  • Jonathan Willis: Flashback: When ‘Oil Change’ revealed key details of Oilers’ 1979, 2010 drafts
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s Sports Hall of Fame should have 3 founding members
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option

LOWETIDE 61-80 NHLE 2020 DRAFT

We’ll see a lot of movement from this group in the ranking at the end of the month. Good arrows for Helge Grans, Sean Farrell, Carter Savoie. Down arrows for Tyler Kleven.

NYGARD VIA PUCK IQ

Puck IQ is the best. Fascinating information about five on five performance against differing levels of opposition. Nygard played very little against elites but the Oilers delivered when he was on the ice. He was 4-1 in 14 minutes with Connor McDavid, that’s a big part of it.

He played 52 minutes against the middle competition with Riley Sheahan. They were 61 percent DFF, 2-2 goals.

Nygard is going to make life more difficult for Benson in 2020-21, if he can stay healthy and add a little more offense. His DFF is impressive across the board. I think this is an astute signing and re-signing.

NUGE VIA PUCK IQ

This is Nuge. His Puck IQ player card is interesting, Dave Tippett rolled him over consistently among the three levels of competition. Nuge and his line outscored all three levels, but dominated only the gritensity group in possession. A full year with Leon and Yamamoto should improve that number. Overall, this is easily the best player card among the LW’s.

JAMES NEAL VIA PUCK IQ

Neal’s 220 minutes against elites went pretty well, you’d like the possession number to be a little higher but he was in the black rel and the goal differential is fine. Complete disaster against the middle, and then a strange number set against gritensity: Great in possession, disaster in goal differential. It’s over 211 minutes too, that’s a lot. We talk on this blog about buying Neal out, but has the organization contemplated it? General managers get attached to the idea that their acquisitions are successful.

AA VIA PUCK IQ

Small small sample size here but his Detroit numbers were beyond ghastly and not terribly useful when we’re examining the Oilers. I don’t think there’s enough here to comment but do believe we’ll have a lot more to discuss about Andreas Athanasiou a year from now.

JUJHAR KHAIRA VIA PUCK IQ

This is Khaira and he might be in real trouble despite impressive PK ability. There’s very little positive here. A year ago he performed well against elites and gritensity levels, this year his DFF against gritensity and his goal differential against middle opposition are the only positive signs. I’m stubborn, I’d keep him, but Nygard is going to eat his lunch at five on five.

Sincere thanks to Puck IQ, outstanding information freely available and extremely valuable. Question for the group: Would you like to see the other positions broken down like this? Let me know.

111 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
111 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
jp

ArmchairGM,

Cool. Kinda looks like Benson then if the injury is less likely to be career ending.

ArmchairGM

jp: I didn’t have time to read, one serious one can be just as concerning. Quite likely some team will get a steal though, agreed.

It wasn’t one serious concussion though. Try reading the article rather than assuming.

*********************

Symptoms persisted until mid-February when Lapierre realized his headaches were only happening for a brief time every morning. His agent and family looked to get more information.

Lapierre went for an MRI and X-ray and sought out three different specialists. The diagnosis was consistent from all three: Lapierre was actually dealing with a spinal injury. A few of his vertebrae were “twisted and stuck,” Lapierre said. He worked with a physiotherapist and chiropractor and the headaches soon disappeared.

Considering how hard it was to move the vertebrae, the belief from the specialists, Lapierre says, is the injury was sustained way back in February 2019 at the same time when he was first concussed.

While the experts can’t be 100 per cent certain, it’s possible that Lapierre only sustained one concussion and the other problems this season were the direct result of the vertebrae issue being re-aggravated.

“Being diagnosed with three concussions in 10 months was worrying for me, my family and my future in hockey,” Lapierre admits. “The new diagnosis is a really big relief and I feel confident going into next season that I’ll be able to have success. I’ve strengthened my neck a lot.”

jp

ArmchairGM: Yup. Feels pretty good to have the #1 scorer as the #35 paid guy this year though. McDavid is always full value for money, of course.

This is true. I feel good about Draisaitl remaining among the 35 best players for some time too 🙂

jp

ArmchairGM: Probably just one concussion, based on the tsn article I linked.

I didn’t have time to read, one serious one can be just as concerning. Quite likely some team will get a steal though, agreed.

ArmchairGM

jp:
My assumption was/is that the article was based on 17-18 salary (1st year of Draisaitl’s new deal while McDavid was still on ELC).

Also thinking it could be conceivable that Business Insider could be counting only base salary but not bonuses money (Draisaitl $9M salary, McDavid $2M salary+$13M bonus).

Just guessing where the article got its info.

Yup. Feels pretty good to have the #1 scorer as the #35 paid guy this year though. McDavid is always full value for money, of course.

ArmchairGM

jp:
Yeah I was underestimating how good ~1PPG in draft -1 is. I was remembering a number of Oilers picks being way ahead of that in in draft -1 but those guys were 1st overalls after all, so really not a fair comparison.

In hindsight, in range of 1PPG in draft -1 isn’t something you find often outside the top 5 so those Lapierre boxcars are impressive. The scouting reports are glowing too, no question. Man, I’d have a tough time pulling the trigger with those concussion though…

Probably just one concussion, based on the tsn article I linked.

OriginalPouzar

N64:
Completely surprised he’s highest paid. Who knew?

Of course, with his $13MM signing bonus, McDavid’s full comp for last season was $15MM.

He only “makes” $1MM this coming season in salary but has another $13MM signing bonus coming.

N64

LOL. Apply the same games to NHL owners private assets and private liabilities and that underscores exactly why you need take long a block of salt when encountering articles ranking financial capacity of owners.

jp

You’re very likely right in general but in this case I think it’s just out of date data (the article was published Mar 4th 2018 and uses data from the 2017-18 NHL season)

Examples of teams top salaries:
Oilers Draisaitl $9M (his new deal pays $9M in the early years and started in 17-18, McDavid was still on ELC)

Capitals list Ovechkin and Kuznetsov making $10M. Kuznetsov’s 17-18 and 18-19 salary was $5M bonus + $5M salary = $10M. This season it’s $8.4M total.

Senators Bobby Ryan listed at $7.3M. He made $7.25M in 17-18 and $7.5M in 18-19 and 19-20.

Rangers Lundqvist listed at $9M. He made $9M in 17-18 ($1M bonus + $8M salary), then $7.5M in 18-19 and $7M in 19-20.

There’s no leaving out of bonuses here, just 2 year old salary numbers.

ArmchairGM

jp: Why? Those guys had mad boxcars to back them. Nothing jumps off the page about Hendrix except maybe his name.

His draft -1 season was better than Kaliyev’s, and then the concussion trouble started. I think that this kid has top-10 talent yet he’ll drop at least into the twenties due to sustaining 3 concussions in 10 months. Here’s what Wheeler had to say in his mid-season report:

18. Hendrix Lapierre — C, Chicoutimi Sagueneens, 6-foot
A series of concussions have derailed Lapierre’s season (here’s hoping they don’t impact more than that) but I’m convinced he would’ve challenged for the top-10 range if healthy. This ranking was a tough one because of the uncertainty around his game. I settled on a small bump down the list due to the crucial time he has lost. But I still think if he can get back and stay healthy that he’s a worthwhile pick in the teens, even given the risk, on skill alone. Lapierre’s a puck-dominant, pass-first playmaker who can drive a line with his hands and craftiness, or run a power play with his playmaking ability through seams. He’s got top of the lineup upside that most others after him on this list lack.

https://theathletic.com/1598118/2020/02/19/wheeler-midseason-ranking-for-the-2020-nhl-drafts-top-62-prospects/

If he can re-gain his health (it sounds like he hasn’t had any headaches in months now), he has the potential to carve out a very good career in the NHL. DeBrincat dropped due to size (and Kaliyev due to work ethic and intangibles) but there’s no doubt that he should have been picked higher based on the results we’ve seen so far. I think Lapierre has the same potential.

ArmchairGM
jp

Yeah I was underestimating how good ~1PPG in draft -1 is. I was remembering a number of Oilers picks being way ahead of that in in draft -1 but those guys were 1st overalls after all, so really not a fair comparison.

In hindsight, in range of 1PPG in draft -1 isn’t something you find often outside the top 5 so those Lapierre boxcars are impressive. The scouting reports are glowing too, no question. Man, I’d have a tough time pulling the trigger with those concussion though…

N64

That site must be accurate on account of their care with numbers 😉

Highest-paid player: Oilers center Leon Draisaitl is paid $9 million a year

jp

I noticed that too, as well as a number of other players they listed.

Turns out Draisaitl actually did/does make $9M for the first 3 yrs of his contract. Seems Business Insider doesn’t use cap hit like we’re all so used to 🙂

N64

Completely surprised he’s highest paid. Who knew?

jp

LT said the article is 18 months old so I assume McDavid’s new deal hadn’t kicked in yet (though they could be counting only base salary which still puts Drai ahead of McDavid).

Did Chiarelli ever negotiate a deal with a ‘normal’ salary structure?

ArmchairGM

For the 2019-20 season, McDavid is the 5th highest paid while Draisaitl is 35th.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/salary

jp

My assumption was/is that the article was based on 17-18 salary (1st year of Draisaitl’s new deal while McDavid was still on ELC).

Also thinking it could be conceivable that Business Insider could be counting only base salary but not bonuses money (Draisaitl $9M salary, McDavid $2M salary+$13M bonus).

Just guessing where the article got its info.

OriginalPouzar

The value of the Canucks does not equate to the net worth of its owner – its one of many assets.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
That comment does not speak to the net worth of the owners.

Yes it does.

A quarter billion dollars is a big fucking deal.

OriginalPouzar

That comment does not speak to the net worth of the owners.

Harpers Hair

Genjutsu:
Yeah it’s still 3.3B each according to a quick google search.

None of the Aquilini’s individually top out over one billion.

Please show your work.

The last Forbes evaluation had the Canucks worth $740 million while the Oilers were worth $575 million.

That’s a lot of leverage.

OriginalPouzar

Yamamoto has always has great edges – he’s always been a plus skater, not a burner but a plus skater with great edges.

Benson won’t make it in the NHL as a center because, well, he’s a winger.

I think the kid has enough on his plate trying to work on his game and carve out a spot in the league – I don’t think changing positions, to a “tougher” position with more responsibility is the answer.

Glovjuice

jp:
I don’t recall ever hearing “poor skater”. Maybe “not amazing enough to overcome his size”, but not poor.

Yeah, I recall being more worried about his (at the time) lack of top gear thus making his size too much to overcome. His skating via an improved stride length has really improved – he is a player (if health holds up). Benson; I don’t see him as C material due to skating.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: There are degrees of wealth in the league.

For some a $6 million buyout is a trifle.

The Leafs have been paying out dead contracts for years.

I don’t disagree with any of that.

All I’m suggesting, and its just suggesting, is that even the wealthier of the owners may not be so apt to write those same chequest.

Daryl Katz has also spend truckloads of money for dead assets – paying multiple GMs and multiple coaches at the same time, retaining salary, buyouts, burying big salary players in the AHL (Fayne, Gagner, Manning, etc.).

Its not like Daryl Katz can’t afford to continue this way but I’m not positive he just agrees to buy out James Neal without hesitation. Similar, its not like MLSE can’t afford to take Lucic off the flames hands and buy him out but I’m not so certain it gets approved without hesitation either.

I’m just speculating – could be totally wrong.

jp

A little more on Nygard to add to the puckIQ numbers LT showed above (Nygard’s DFF% was 2nd best of all Oilers by the way).

Nygard played only 33 games and 330 minutes 5on5, so still a pretty small sample size. He also got 16:30 on the PP but only 22 sec on the PK all year. I thought he PKed in the SHL but he didn’t get a sniff this year. Not sure if he could be a PK option next year.

On ice numbers. 15 Oilers forwards played 200+ minutes at 5v5. How did Nygard do?
His CF% was bad, only 44.9% (12th/15)
SF% was much much better at 50.0% (6th/15)
GF% was 48.2% (13GF-14GA, 7th/15)
SCF% was 49.8% (130-131, 5th/15)
HDCF% was 59.8% (1st/15 by a wide margin. 2nd was Kassian at 53.7%)

He was pretty low event. His SF/SA rates were 26.9/60 (7th fewest SF and 3rd fewest SA among forwards)

He got 45.2% OZ starts and faced elites only 23.4% of the time (easiest comp of anyone who played 10+ games).

He scored 1.27 5v5 P/60 which was 6th on the team (the best after Yamamoto, McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Kassian).

His most common line mates were:
Sheahan- 122min 43.1SF% 4GF-4GA
Chiasson 102min 52.6SF% 5GA-3GA
Haas —— 83min 52.4SF% 2GF-3GA
Archibald- 74min 45.2SF% 3GF-3GA
McDavid– 54min 59.1SF% 6GF-2GA
Russell — 50min 33.3SF% 2GF-2GA

Scoring with those line mates:
Sheahan- 122min 1-3-4 1.97P/60
Chiasson 102min 0-2-2 1.18
Haas —— 83min 0-1-1 0.72
Archibald- 74min 0-2-2 1.62
McDavid– 54min 0-1-1 1.11
Russell — 50min 1-1-2 2.39

Still early to be sure what to expect but he looks pretty good from here. Glad to have him on the team for next year.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Even the wealthiest of owners may be remiss to pay to dispose of assets – that was kind of my point.

You could be right but, at the same time, we didn’t see that in the past and I think there is less likelihood now even of the Board of Governors approve compliance buyouts.

It is interesting that you have Vancouver on the there but not Edmonton – I believe that Katz’s net worth essentially mirrors that of Aquilini.

Not at all.

While the Acqulini family has a private company, it is known that they have massive real estate holdings in Vancouver, huge tracts of farmland in the Fraser Valley and multiple vineyards in Washington State and California as well as ownership of many golf courses on the west coast.

Genjutsu

Yeah it’s still 3.3B each according to a quick google search.

None of the Aquilini’s individually top out over one billion.

Please show your work.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Of course, that AHL player only played 23 minutes with McDavid (276 without).

I guess he was “around” McDavid although I would posit his plus play was because, well, he’s a skilled and smart player that was drafted in the first round and has developed over his two years of pro.

It’s ironic that he got way more McDavid minutes in his previous two tries where he failed to stick than this time around.

2017-18 121min / 67w/McDavid
2018-19 193min / 84w/McDavid
2019-20 418min / 26w/McDavid

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Even the wealthiest of owners may be remiss to pay to dispose of assets – that was kind of my point.

You could be right but, at the same time, we didn’t see that in the past and I think there is less likelihood now even of the Board of Governors approve compliance buyouts.

There are degrees of wealth in the league.

For some a $6 million buyout is a trifle.

The Leafs have been paying out dead contracts for years.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Well…you can look at what the wealthiest team owners might do.

Toronto, NYR, LAK, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, Boston might weaponize buyouts to gain a competitive advantage.

Even the wealthiest of owners may be remiss to pay to dispose of assets – that was kind of my point.

You could be right but, at the same time, we didn’t see that in the past and I think there is less likelihood now even of the Board of Governors approve compliance buyouts.

It is interesting that you have Vancouver on the there but not Edmonton – I believe that Katz’s net worth essentially mirrors that of Aquilini.

jp

defmn: Not just you. Yamomoto wasn’t on the team long enough to credit Draisaitl or McDavid with improving his play. He showed up and did it on his own. It is legitimate to ask if he can sustain it over a full season or his career but what he did this past season was all on him and his coaches in Bakersfield imo.

+1

Things won’t go THAT well again, but what he did was very impressive.

OriginalPouzar

Jaxon:
Throwing it out there: Benson is our future 3C.

I can’t remember a career winger through junior and early pro converting to a center in order to make the NHL.

jp

Glovjuice: Yeah, no. Can’t skate.

You also said Yamamoto was too small.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

jp,

I believe they also mentioned Yamfries being a poor skater.

jp

I don’t recall ever hearing “poor skater”. Maybe “not amazing enough to overcome his size”, but not poor.

jp

ArmchairGM: I think *this* guy will be this year’s Debrincat or Kaliyev.

Why? Those guys had mad boxcars to back them. Nothing jumps off the page about Hendrix except maybe his name.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Of course, that AHL player only played 23 minutes with McDavid (276 without).

I guess he was “around” McDavid although I would posit his plus play was because, well, he’s a skilled and smart player that was drafted in the first round and has developed over his two years of pro.

He’s not an “AHL player” but a developing 1st round pick in his early 20s.

Just me though.

Not just you. Yamomoto wasn’t on the team long enough to credit Draisaitl or McDavid with improving his play. He showed up and did it on his own. It is legitimate to ask if he can sustain it over a full season or his career but what he did this past season was all on him and his coaches in Bakersfield imo.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909: With superstars like McDavid you see AHLers emerge like Yamamoto. It’s what really separates the great from the good players. Orr took a moribund Boston team and made them contenders, so did Gretzky in Edmonton.

Good players suddenly turn elite around geniuses.

Of course, that AHL player only played 23 minutes with McDavid (276 without).

I guess he was “around” McDavid although I would posit his plus play was because, well, he’s a skilled and smart player that was drafted in the first round and has developed over his two years of pro.

He’s not an “AHL player” but a developing 1st round pick in his early 20s.

Just me though.

Glovjuice

Jaxon:
Throwing it out there: Benson is our future 3C.

Yeah, no. Can’t skate.

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
I expect Neal’s numbers crater vs middle and grit because that’s when he is mostly playing on a non McDavid line….do the numbers support that? His performance drops as his matchups change with his linemates.

I was going to suggest that maybe this general result (better with elites) was a result of playing those minutes with McDavid but, as posted, it doesn’t fly for Neal and Nygard only played 50 minutes with McDavid (276 without).

With that said, in those 50 minutes they went 6-2 in goals – maybe there is something there that I didn’t see with my eyes?

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: Love Taylor Hall,
Oilers need a 3C more than a 1LW don’t you think?
AA. – 97 – Kassian
93 – 29 – 56
That’s the best top 6 the Oilers have iced in a long time.
AA is the goods, just needs time to develop chemistry with the best center in the world.
It will happen, plus I believe that Athena-C-you was battling an injury at the end of the season.
Who has McDavid started the last 3 years on a line with?
Maroon,
Rattie,
Nygard?
AA is easily the best of the bunch, we just need to be patient.
Also, Yamamoto needs a new number
#27 seems about right or what’s 1/2 of #29?

I would love Taylor Hall on the Oilers. I have been very much against acquiring Taylor Hall either as a rental, as a UFA acquisition with the intent on re-signing or as a UFA signing.

My premise has always been contract and salary cap. I have always believed that he will be requesting (and will receive) an elite player type UFA contract – 7-8 years at $9M plus.

I believe that, generally, he is an elite player when on the ice. With that said, he has missed many games over many seasons due to injury and that, combined with the odd off season (like this year) makes him not worthy of that type of contract – its simply too risky, in particular given it will be for his 28-35 years – it seems unlikely he will produce more or be healthier in those years.

If he really wants that term and is willing to sign for a discount to get it, then I’d have time for it – I’m talking 3-4 years max and no more than $7M and that’s with a sense of the cap being no less than what it is now over the next few years.

Would still be tough to fit in and I’m not sure the other moves it would limit would make it worth it.

——————-

Shit, that whole novel above wasn’t the point, my point was that, yes, I agree, 3C is the one material external acquisition that I think should be prioritized this off-season.

I’m not sold that AA is the right LW for McDavid – that has nothing to do with his play here, that was my position prior to the trade – given styles of play and skill-sets.

With that said, I absolutely agree that AA should be better next season when he’s had a full off-season knowing he is on a team with lofty goals and, importantly, a training camp with Tippett and Gully to learn the systems and what the coaching staff demands. Also, Coach T will learn what AA needs and what motivates him – a plus skill of Coach T.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Compliance buyouts may be used with scarcity by the owners.

When they were last available essentially a third of the teams bought out 2, a third bought out 1 and a third bought out noone.

Owners in general are likely remiss to pay big dollars to dispose of an asset to pay a player big money not to play for them.I acknowledge the cost savings amortized over time but, at the end of the day, I think we can all agree that owners don’t like buying players out – the cost savings is also mitigated by the need to replace the bought out player on the 23 man roster – at min that’s $700K of cost savings reduced, per year.

I am not certain at all that Murray Edwards and partners would authorize a buyout for Lucic, even a compliance buyout.

Shit, I”m not in any way certain that Daryl Katz will authorize a buyout of James Neal, even a compliance one – and Katz is an owner that has been willing to spend every nickel requested to try and help the on-ice product (paying multiple head coaches and multiple GMs at the same time, burying players in the minors and paying them large NHL salaries, salary retention, etc).

I could be wrong but I’m not so sure we would see as many compliance buyouts as some think.

Well…you can look at what the wealthiest team owners might do.

Toronto, NYR, LAK, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, Boston might weaponize buyouts to gain a competitive advantage.

OriginalPouzar

PennersPancakes: Yeah it doesnt appear to make a lot of sense. Gaudreau has 2 years left after this season and Lucic 3. Cant see any playoff team taking in Lucic’s contract, I mean look at what Tampa gave up for Goodrow and Coleman because their caps were so little.

The only thing that could work is if a team like Ottawa took them both for near free. They have to field a team or could flip Gaudreau and eat Lucics contract I suppose. Funnily enough this mirrors Ottawa trying to package Ryan with any of the major players they dealt the last couple years. It makes more sense to have that trade as 2 separate transactions. Sell gaudreau for picks to a contender, use those picks to convince someone to take Lucic, THEN sign Hall (and his curse).

The icing on the cake is Lucic’s NMC. It changes into a modified NMC/NTC after next season but they would be asking him to waive again. With a wife and 3 young kids gotta imagine unless it was t Vancouver or California that wouldnt be appealing.

If we were in a normal economic environment, I could/would suggest a “rich team” would be willing to take on Lucic in a compliance buyout scenario.

Now, much much less of a possibility in a compliance buyout approved world.

OriginalPouzar

PennersPancakes:
I really hope there are compliance buyouts. It would help the Oilers and the Canucks obviously directly in getting rid of Neal and Eriksson (as well as most other teams) but it opens up the free agent pool drastically. Seems like the Canucks dont have any drastic holes its more so keeping the band together but for the Oilers wanting a 3C the pickings right now arent great.

Wonder if any of Henrique, Wennberg, Stepan, Turris, Little, Carter shake loose.

If Katz would agree to buyout James Neal.

Six months ago I wouldn’t have questioned his willingness, however, the world’s economy has changed….

Genjutsu

How’s his health?

Pretty sure he wants win now.

Everyone is going to have an altered way of seeing the world.

I guess we’ll find out in month or two.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
That would also assume there are no compliance buyouts which I think are almost a certainty.

Compliance buyouts may be used with scarcity by the owners.

When they were last available essentially a third of the teams bought out 2, a third bought out 1 and a third bought out noone.

Owners in general are likely remiss to pay big dollars to dispose of an asset to pay a player big money not to play for them. I acknowledge the cost savings amortized over time but, at the end of the day, I think we can all agree that owners don’t like buying players out – the cost savings is also mitigated by the need to replace the bought out player on the 23 man roster – at min that’s $700K of cost savings reduced, per year.

I am not certain at all that Murray Edwards and partners would authorize a buyout for Lucic, even a compliance buyout.

Shit, I”m not in any way certain that Daryl Katz will authorize a buyout of James Neal, even a compliance one – and Katz is an owner that has been willing to spend every nickel requested to try and help the on-ice product (paying multiple head coaches and multiple GMs at the same time, burying players in the minors and paying them large NHL salaries, salary retention, etc).

I could be wrong but I’m not so sure we would see as many compliance buyouts as some think.

OriginalPouzar

godot10:
I don’t think he has ever said that he is willing to play for free…er…a discount.

Anything less than $9 million is a discount.Anything less than $8 million is a severe discount.

While, of course, he won’t take 50 cents on the dollar to sign for term but it does seem like term is something he really wants and he’s very live to the economic situation.

————–
Hall seems to have a pretty mature outlook on potentially having to take less money:

“It’s certainly a weird time,” the 28-year-old said. “It’s a weird time to potentially go into free agency. But that’s life. There’s a lot of people that are in worse spots off than me. I’m not too flustered about that. Hopefully, I can play a lot more years in this league. We all get paid pretty handsomely for what we do. So, it’s not really stressful in that way, it’s just more so the timing of when everything is going to come together I guess.’’

It also seems like he doesn’t want to take a short term contract and wait for the salaries to rise again:

“I don’t really want to play through a contract year again,” he said. “Whether it was the reason I had an off-year or not, I’d rather get some security and try and sign a longer-term deal.’’

https://theathletic.com/1749235/2020/04 … -playoffs/

ArmchairGM

St Louis apparently just signed Scandella, a 30-year-old LHD, to a 4-year x $3.275M deal. What does this mean for Pietrangelo? Does this have any impact on Russell’s value?

N64

This one got mentioned by virologists in January likely because of MERS research:

https://sph.unc.edu/sph-news/gillings-research-on-broad-spectrum-antiviral-could-aid-public-health-response-to-coronavirus-outbreaks/

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/

Intesteresting basic research in Alberta on how it works:

https://www.folio.ca/u-of-a-virology-lab-finds-drug-originally-meant-for-ebola-is-effective-against-a-key-enzyme-of-coronavirus-that-causes-covid-19/

Will be intesteresting to see actual results to see if it makes a significant difference for some patient profiles

ArmchairGM

dustrock:
LT your thoughts on Hendrix Lapierre?

“23 (22) LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center who projects as a playmaker. The buzz on him entering the season was far more pronounced than it is now, so the second half of his season will be vital. Feb 2002.”

If he’s there for the Oilers, do you think they take him?He had top 10 buzz coming into the season and had a great Hlinka, but also had 3 concussions in a 10 month span.

Wonder which team pulls the trigger.

I think *this* guy will be this year’s Debrincat or Kaliyev.

dustrock

Fair enough, except 3 concussions in a year is a lot more of a real concern than Kaliyev’s rumored “attitude problems” or whatever. Debrincat I guess had size. Lapierre is probably closer to Galchenyuk.

godot10

dustrock:
LT your thoughts on Hendrix Lapierre?

“23 (22) LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center who projects as a playmaker. The buzz on him entering the season was far more pronounced than it is now, so the second half of his season will be vital. Feb 2002.”

If he’s there for the Oilers, do you think they take him?He had top 10 buzz coming into the season and had a great Hlinka, but also had 3 concussions in a 10 month span.

Wonder which team pulls the trigger.

Teams like Ottawa with a plethora of extra picks will take the 3-concussion in 10 month risk.

I don’t believe the OIlers can take the injury risk. They need singles and doubles (because of McDavid and Draisaitl) and don’t have to swing for the fences, or try to stretch a double into a triple.

When you trade two second round picks for Athanasiou’s, one has to draft within the white lines, stick to the asphalt, and not go off-roading.

Availability is an ability.

dustrock

Yes, this was my argument against Benson at the time as well.

Jaxon

Throwing it out there: Benson is our future 3C.

pts2pndr

About the time pigs learn how to fly

dustrock

LT your thoughts on Hendrix Lapierre?

“23 (22) LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center who projects as a playmaker. The buzz on him entering the season was far more pronounced than it is now, so the second half of his season will be vital. Feb 2002.”

If he’s there for the Oilers, do you think they take him? He had top 10 buzz coming into the season and had a great Hlinka, but also had 3 concussions in a 10 month span.

Wonder which team pulls the trigger.

hunter1909

JJS: Anyhow, not likely to happen.

With superstars like McDavid you see AHLers emerge like Yamamoto. It’s what really separates the great from the good players. Orr took a moribund Boston team and made them contenders, so did Gretzky in Edmonton.

Good players suddenly turn elite around geniuses.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: I doubt Taylor Hall is signing a long term contract at a discount this summer.He will just pull a Hossa and sign one year deals Cup hunting until he finds a fit and a permanent home.

I don’t think he will have to take a discount from Calgary once the Flames use Gaudreau to offload Lucic.Hall with Monahan should be dynamite.

He very well might sign a short term deal until the league economics recover/improve, however, there were direct quotes from Taylor put on by LeBrun yesterday when Taylor said he doesn’t want to sign a one year deal, he doesn’t want to go in to another “contract year”. At the end of the day, he may feel he needs to do just that if the market is severely depressed but he’s very clear that will be a last resort for him.

TheGreatBigMac

Taylor Hall on sale and possibly inclined toward a reunion? That could be something special.

Hall – McDavid – Kassian
Nuge – Draisaitl – Yamamoto

Now thats a top 6! 🙂

JJS

Yes – 3rd centre is top priority with the current line up. Completely agree.

And I am also really excited about AA finding his game.

But, theoretically, having 2 lines tilt the ice for 40 mins a game would be the most effective way to win championships

I may be wrong but having 2 elite lines should also dramatically reduce the need for a high end 3rd line centre

At the moment, McD drives play virtually by himself. Imagine what he would accomplish with a bonafide first line winger.

We would have the puck for 2/3 of the game – not including PP

As long as lines 3 and 4 don’t give much back, we would be elite

Anyhow, not likely to happen. Hopefully AA fills the role adequately and consistently for the next couple of years. McD needs some stability.

Pescador: Love Taylor Hall,
Oilers need a 3C more than a 1LW don’t you think?
AA. – 97 – Kassian
93 – 29 – 56
That’s the best top 6 the Oilers have iced in a long time.
AA is the goods, just needs time to develop chemistry with the best center in the world.
It will happen, plus I believe that Athena-C-you was battling an injury at the end of the season.
Who has McDavid started the last 3 years on a line with?
Maroon,
Rattie,
Nygard?
AA is easily the best of the bunch, we just need to be patient.
Also, Yamamoto needs a new number
#27 seems about right or what’s 1/2 of #29?

ArmchairGM

BONE207:
Imagine all the fun the Oilers could have if they had 2 M. Bennings. Both RD .

A little research shows that they are brothers. Who knew?

Here’s something else interesting about Michael Benning: his stats in AJHL.

Draft -1: 60, 10-51-61 (1.02 P/GP)
Draft year: 54, 12-63-75 (1.39)

You know who had similar stats in the AJHL? Cale Makar.

Draft -1: 54, 10-46-55 (1.02)
Draft year: 54, 24-51-75 (1.39)

This kid could be the steal of the draft if he’s available at #82. Draft and College, as they say.

jp

Those numbers are eerily similar. Weird. But yeah, looks like young Benning is worth a draft pick for sure.

jp

Do the Oilers pick Benning Jr with the pick they get for Benning Sr?

geowal

I expect Neal’s numbers crater vs middle and grit because that’s when he is mostly playing on a non McDavid line….do the numbers support that? His performance drops as his matchups change with his linemates.

jp

IIRC Neal was 8GF-11GA with McDavid, so that’s probably not it.

BONE207

Imagine all the fun the Oilers could have if they had 2 M. Bennings. Both RD .

A little research shows that they are brothers. Who knew?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Also interested in the player breakdowns via PuckIQ.

Bruce McCurdy

Yes, please, more on the PuckIQ data. Very useful.

Odd splits on the GF-GA stats this year, many Oilers did far better vs Elites than vs. Gritensity. Nygard & Neal above being two examples.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I wonder what some date splits would show? The beginning of the season was rough for the bottom-6, where nothing seemed to rhyme.

BONE207

Agreed on the PuckIQ data.

I wonder if the elite vs gritensity data only reveals that our bottom six is poor. Putting good players with weak players affects their outcomes. l learned that from Woodsomethingsomething…