Time After Time

Cooper Marody knows better than anyone the opportunity missed in 2019-20. Edmonton spent the season looking for RH help up the middle, but Marody just couldn’t get healthy. This fall might be his last chance Texaco.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
  • Jonathan Willis: Flashback: When ‘Oil Change’ revealed key details of Oilers’ 1979, 2010 drafts
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s Sports Hall of Fame should have 3 founding members
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option

LT 41-60 NHLE FOR 2020 DRAFT

Now we get to a difficult area of my list and honestly one of the reasons I don’t normally post NHLE’s. I nick USHL numbers (Colangelo, Brisson) because I think the currently held wisdom on the league is aggressive.

Jack Hughes NHLE a year ago (44.3) wasn’t a strong predictor of his actual results (61, 7-14-21, about 28 points per 82 games) and we simply don’t have enough examples of USHL-to-NHL to make a strong estimate.

Later in the third round (above) leagues like the Allsvenskan and Finnish Junior leagues come into play. NHLE isn’t there yet in terms of projecting, but I do use some metrics (here) to find a ballpark for players. I’m not going to throw Veeti Miettenin into the first round but I do know he’s kicking ass in his current league.

MARODY

Marody was drafted the same year as Mason Appleton and has (mostly) been the superior player in each season despite being almost one full year younger. This past season was a tough one for Marody, whose offense was cut in half while playing in Bakersfield. Appleton spent most of the season in the NHL. Edmonton needs a RH center with skill. Marody missed a big opportunity.

When I followed baseball closely, a big worry was a beanball. If a hitter took a fastball to the head, the ramifications could be extensive and long term. Marody’s injury in the spring of 2019 had a major impact on his career. You can see the offensive impact above.

Consider that his on ice even strength goal differential went from 60-26 in ’18-19 to 15-23 this past season. That is a sensational (the bad type) drop in production. If Marody and Tyler Benson had been able to build on their ’18-19 success both men might be in the NHL now (Oilers needed an outscoring soft parade line). Benson went from 59-33 to 27-35.

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49 Responses to "Time After Time"

  1. dustrock says:

    Thanks, Kessy.

  2. Elgin R says:

    Opportunity is fleeting for most, if not all, AHL players who are described as tweeners. Injuries also have such an great impact on players trying to make the show. Marody lost what looks like a full year of development, as did Benson in junior.

    There is a clear opportunity for Marody at 3C with the Oilers. Can he win the job or is he just another in a long line of really good AHL players who did not make it. It may be interesting to play Benson – Marody – Archie as a third line in preseason and see what hey can do.

    Hoping the kid works as hard as possible this summer and gives it his best shot. As Holland has said: ‘Knock, Knock’.

  3. jtblack says:

    LT: Do you have your sites on this years Debrincat or Kailiyev?

  4. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    LT: Do you have your sites on this years Debrincat or Kailiyev?

    I think it’s Jack Quinn.

  5. jtblack says:

    APPLETON’S 21 yr old season and subsequent drop in production during his 22 year old season is very simliar to Marody.

    The next yr Appleton was in the NHL.

    I think Tippett should give Marody 20+ games and see if he is up to it.

    This coming year, more than ever, Cheap Labor matters.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve mentioned Marody a few times lately as a dark-horse for that 3C position. Of course, its not likely and the organization can’t go in to camp counting on it, not at all.

    Last year was a disappointing year for Cooper – he didn’t impress at camp and I think he was still feeling the effects of the Kessy shot in the playoffs – injured for much of the year and didn’t gain transaction.

    Here is hoping he gets a real off-season to work on his skating. More than Benson, I think it will hold him back.

    This may be his last chance, at least in this organization – there is a spot available.

  7. jtblack says:

    From the SCORE.

    ‐—————–

    Dr. Anthony Fauci sees a way back for sports this year.

    One of the leading medical experts for the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force believes the best way to resume North American sports is meticulously monitoring players and keeping fans out of arenas for the foreseeable future.

    “There’s a way of doing that,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Snapchat’s Peter Hamby when asked about starting up sports again. “Nobody comes to the stadium. Put (teams) in big hotels wherever you want to play. Keep them very well surveilled.

    “… But have them tested, like every week,” he added. “And make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family and just let them play the season out.”

  8. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Aside from the concussion last spring do you know what Marody’s ailments were this season?

    I’m forgetting if he had additional issues with concussions or other things (I think both?).

  9. Munny says:

    that’s a great question

  10. VanIsleOil says:

    When you say APPLETON’S 21 year old….this is what I think of….:)

    https://tinyurl.com/qw2l544

  11. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Hey LT. Missing you on the morning waves this week. Caught Matt E yesterday but turned the radio off when he told us he didn’t want to hear that golf is a rich mans sport. The last thing I need to hear these days is a sports guy telling me what I can or cannot say. So I am looking forward to you coming back next week. PS Golf is $50 a round at Victoria ($61 weekends). Pretty rich for common guys like me.

  12. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s Jack Quinn.

    Isn’t he a riser? I thought it would be a guy who math says is an outstanding goalscorer but people are down on for some reason.

    No way Quinn gets out of the first and I highly doubt he’s available for the Oilers.

  13. defmn says:

    Not exactly Oilers news but Steve’s son Jeff Tambellini hired by Tampa.

    https://www.trailsmokeeaters.com/tambellini-joins-tampa-bay-lightning

  14. Lowetide says:

    dustrock: Isn’t he a riser?I thought it would be a guy who math says is an outstanding goalscorer but people are down on for some reason.

    No way Quinn gets out of the first and I highly doubt he’s available for the Oilers.

    I don’t know, my definition of a DeBrincat type is a player who is drafted substantially lower than my numbers suggest.

    I had DeBrincat No. 15, with an NHLE of 44 points. He went No. 39
    https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/04/here-comes-the-sun-final-2016-draft-list/

    I had Kaliyev No. 5 with an NHLE of 40. He went No. 33
    https://lowetide.ca/2019/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2019/

    I have Quinn No. 10 with an NHLE of 38. I don’t know where he’s going to go.
    https://lowetide.ca/2020/03/29/the-93-best-players-in-the-2020-draft/

    If he goes No. 25, then he’ll have some things in common with DeBrincat. If he goes No. 12, then we may not have a DeBrincat this season.

    Mavrik Bourque, Connor Zary and Seth Jarvis are other players I have in the top 20 with really good math, perhaps they’ll be the match. I can’t tell you until the draft.

  15. Munny says:

    The Bob’s list would be really helpful here… ie to determine which players math loves but scouts don’t. We can see who the math loves but won’t know for sure on teams and scouts till we get the final list (which is also facing a unique situation and might be fairly discomBobulated).

  16. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The thing that annoys me about Marody is he was drafted in the 6th round, but when it became clear he wouldn’t sign in Philly they traded him to Edmonton for a 3rd rounder.

    Whereas John Marino was also drafted inhte 6th round, but when it became clear he wouldn’t sign in edmonton they traded him to Pittsburgh for a (wait for it) 6th rounder.

    One of these men is in the NHL.

    😡

  17. defmn says:

    Munny:
    The Bob’s list would be really helpful here… ie to determine which players math loves but scouts don’t.We can see who the math loves but won’t know for sure on teams and scouts till we get the final list (which is also facing a unique situation and might be fairly discomBobulated).

    Button has Quinn going 6th overall in his latest rankings I believe.

  18. Lowetide says:

    defmn: Button has Quinn going 6th overall in his latest rankings I believe.

    Button is a pure scout though. McKenzie’s is the consensus. That’s a list that gives us a better idea, although I don’t remember people quoting my ranking on DeBrincat until after he was drafted.

  19. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    The impacts of the dirty hit by Kessey were observable and sustained, unfortunately. One would hope that time and fewer games will put distance between the injury and Cooper’s recovery.

    One thing to not understate about this season for the Condors, however, is the impact of graduations of significant defensemen in Jones, Bear and Lagesson. Further, injury and poor performance of the goaltending had a marked impact on the GF-GA of the team as a whole, but especially the first line players who regularly face the other teams’ top lines.

    Slow boots and all, I’m rooting for a big year next season for Mr. Marody.

  20. Material Elvis says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Hey LT. Missing you on the morning waves this week. Caught Matt E yesterday but turned the radio off when he told us he didn’t want to hear that golf is a rich mans sport. The last thing I need to hear these days is a sports guy telling me what I can or cannot say. So I am looking forward to you coming back next week. PS Golf is $50 a round at Victoria ($61 weekends). Pretty rich for common guys like me.

    Seriously? You are complaining about *that* comment? He said he didn’t want to hear your complaint, not that you cannot say it. Besides, he’s right. There are a lot of people who enjoy golf who are not rich. You don’t have to be considered ‘rich’ to pay $50 for golf, $20 for a movie, or $200 for a hockey game at Roger’s Place. His entire point was that golf is something that could possibly be opened up because you can play it while practicing social distancing. When he heard the response of ‘golf should not be opened because it is a sport for rich people’ he called bullshit. If it can be done safely, what does cost have to do with anything?

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    · 27m
    President Trump’s call today with several sports leaders, including NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is believed to have focused in number of issues/possibilities. 1) restarting with no fans. 2) availability of testing. 3) travel concerns.

    Obviously, everyone agreed they want to bring sports back as soon as possible and as soon as it’s safe to do so. No timelines , yet.

    Bettman, Silver, Manfred and Goodell all on the call today as were owners Mark Cuban, Robert Kraft and Jerry Jones.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    · 27m
    President call today with several sports leaders, including NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is believed to have focused in number of issues/possibilities. 1) restarting with no fans. 2) availability of testing. 3) travel concerns.

    Obviously, everyone agreed they want to bring sports back as soon as possible and as soon as it’s safe to do so. No timelines , yet.

    Bettman, Silver, Manfred and Goodell all on the call today as were owners Mark Cuban, Robert Kraft and Jerry Jones.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Opportunity is fleeting for most, if not all, AHL players who are described as tweeners.Injuries also have such an great impact on players trying to make the show.Marody lost what looks like a full year of development, as did Benson in junior.

    There is a clear opportunity for Marody at 3C with the Oilers.Can he win the job or is he just another in a long line of really good AHL players who did not make it.It may be interesting to play Benson – Marody – Archie as a third line in preseason and see what hey can do.

    Hoping the kid works as hard as possible this summer and gives it his best shot.As Holland has said: ‘Knock, Knock’.

    I defended him on this point leading up to training camp last year but Marody didn’t really work on his skating last off-season – premise being its never held him back before and he’s got the skill and smarts to counter meh skating.

    Here is hoping that, once he’s permitted, he’s working his ass off on his skating as oppossed to his music and focusing on the career where he’s under an actual contract.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    APPLETON’S 21 yr old season and subsequent drop in production during his 22 year old season is very simliar to Marody.

    The next yr Appleton was in the NHL.

    I think Tippett should give Marody 20+ games and see if he is up to it.

    This coming year, more than ever, Cheap Labor matters.

    I wouldn’t be against giving Marody a shot if it looks like he’s worked hard in the off-season and shows well at camp.

    At the same time, that would be bonus and gravy as, really, the team and management can’t go in to the season counting on Marody being the 3C – they need to fill that position with a player that is more established (or else its a repeat of last season in that regard).

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Aside from the concussion last spring do you know what Marody’s ailments were this season?

    I’m forgetting if he had additional issues with concussions or other things (I think both?).

    You know what? At one time a few months ago I knew the answer to this question but it currently escapes me.

    I think his initial injuries this past season were related to the head but I think he had other ailments in the 2nd half.

    I could be wrong so don’t quote me on this one.

    Its REALLY tough to get any injury info on Bako players – ever.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    The impacts of the dirty hit by Kessey were observable and sustained, unfortunately.One would hope that time and fewer games will put distance between the injury and Cooper’s recovery.

    One thing to not understate about this season for the Condors, however, is the impact of graduations of significant defensemen in Jones, Bear and Lagesson.Further, injury and poor performance of the goaltending had a marked impact on the GF-GA of the team as a whole, but especially the first line players who regularly face the other teams’ top lines.

    Slow boots and all, I’m rooting for a big year next season for Mr. Marody.

    The crater in the Condors’ defensive depth was indeed massive.

    Bouchard and Samorukov were rookie pros and they lost their higher potential mentors – Keegan Lowe remained a solid mentor but, on the ice, he struggled big time and I think hurt Bouchard in the first half of the season when they were paired together quite a bit.

    Logan Day almost missed a large chunk. Samorukov himself hurt with a face injury just as his game was coming together.

    Bouchard’s spike in the 2nd half, in particular with Lagesson gone (although they did gain Persson), is even more impressive given how the team was gutted from net out.

  27. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Bouchard and Samorukov were rookie pros and they lost their higher potential mentors

    Samorukov himself hurt with a face injury just as his game was coming together.

    Any thoughts on how close Samorukov is to NHL ready? Another full year at least?

    With Klefbom, Nurse, Jones, KRussell (for now), and Legesson in front of him it seems like there is no hurry but, of course, players are ready when they’re ready.

    If KRussell is somehow moved I would think that Samorukov is 5th in line which isn’t out of the realm of possibility for him to get a call up at some point this coming season.

  28. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Re-jigging the draft lottery.

    https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiXmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNwb3J0c25ldC5jYS9ob2NrZXkvbmhsLzIwMjAtbmhsLWRyYWZ0LWxvdHRlcnktdGhyb3ctYmFjay0yMDA1LWNyb3NieS1zd2VlcHN0YWtlcy_SAWVodHRwczovL3d3dy5zcG9ydHNuZXQuY2EvaG9ja2V5L25obC8yMDIwLW5obC1kcmFmdC1sb3R0ZXJ5LXRocm93LWJhY2stMjAwNS1jcm9zYnktc3dlZXBzdGFrZXMvc24tYW1wLw?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

    Below is the part I have commented on a few times lately. How the PA and the league both having professionals at the helm has allowed the anger to subside and the league to prosper.

    “Any rejigging of the format would require the players’ approval, and the sides have been working amicably amidst this crisis.”

    “That’s been really unique in this period of time — the cooperation between the NHLPA, the teams, the players and the league,” Mayer notes.

  29. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Re-jigging the draft lottery.

    That would be good for the Oilers, and probably the Canucks.

  30. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: You know what?At one time a few months ago I knew the answer to this question but it currently escapes me.

    I think his initial injuries this past season were related to the head but I think he had other ailments in the 2nd half.

    I could be wrong so don’t quote me on this one.

    Its REALLY tough to get any injury info on Bako players – ever.

    Yeah I understand. That’s my general recollection too, probably from your reports through the year, but I don’t recall the details either.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Any thoughts on how close Samorukov is to NHL ready? Another full year at least?

    With Klefbom, Nurse, Jones, KRussell (for now), and Legesson in front of him it seems like there is no hurry but, of course, players are ready when they’re ready.

    If KRussell is somehow moved I would think that Samorukov is 5th in line which isn’t out of the realm of possibility for him to get a call up at some point this coming season.

    Yup, he had a solid development year last year but it was really and up and down year – his face injury was really bad timing.

    I expect a solid spike in his development in year 2, like we often see (see Caleb Jones who had a tough first year) with mainly top 4 minutes and special teams.

    Its too bad Berglund is going to be staying in Sweden (after he signs – come on, lets ink) – he’d be a good partner for Sammy I would think – great 2nd pairing in the AHL.

  32. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: That would be good for the Oilers, and probably the Canucks.

    If the rules were the same, the Oilers would get dinged for the McDavid draft and the 2017 playoff appearance.

    The Canucks would get three balls since they haven’t had a first overall pick and haven’t made the playoffs in the past three seasons.

  33. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I defended him on this point leading up to training camp last year but Marody didn’t really work on his skating last off-season – premise being its never held him back before and he’s got the skill and smarts to counter meh skating.

    Here is hoping that, once he’s permitted, he’s working his ass off on his skating as oppossed to his music and focusing on the career where he’s under an actual contract.

    That didn’t really look great on him last fall. It came off as a lack of commitment and/or cockiness, somewhat at least. We’re not inside the team so we can’t know, but I wonder if that played into how his fall played out (he and Benson not dominating rookie camp as expected, then not getting the preseason at bats you’d expect for a 3C candidate and ultimately not really being a candidate for the big club).

  34. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: If the rules were the same, the Oilers would get dinged for the McDavid draft and the 2017 playoff appearance.

    And I counted back 3 years including this one. Yeah.

    Well the average of 1/3 seasons in the playoffs vs picking ~#20 would still be an improvement.

  35. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: And I counted back 3 years including this one. Yeah.

    Well the average of 1/3 seasons in the playoffs vs picking ~#20 would still be an improvement.

    Likely the best outcome for the Oilers would be the snake draft where they would have a late first round pick and a high second round pick…if they have one.

  36. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Likely the best outcome for the Oilers would be the snake draft where they would have a late first round pick and a high second round pick…if they have one.

    Well the snake draft wouldn’t help since any 2nd the Oilers acquire wouldn’t be their own.

    The Canucks playoff drought and lack of lottery luck would definitely leave them holding more balls in that format.

  37. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Well the snake draft wouldn’t help since any 2nd the Oilers acquire wouldn’t be their own.

    The Canucks playoff drought and lack of lottery luck would definitely leave them holding more balls in that format.

    3 balls to 1.

  38. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: 3 balls to 1.

    We’ll see if the NHL decides to go that way.

    With 80+% of the games having been played there’s good reason not to throw out this seasons results completely.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: That didn’t really look great on him last fall. It came off as a lack of commitment and/or cockiness, somewhat at least. We’re not inside the team so we can’t know, but I wonder if that played into how his fall played out (he and Benson not dominating rookie camp as expected, then not getting the preseason at bats you’d expect for a 3C candidate and ultimately not really being a candidate for the big club).

    I took his word at face value regarding his type of training, that spending the off-season in Nashville recording didn’t interfere, etc. and, while I can’t prove cause and effect, well, things didn’t go well for him right off the start.

    Hopefully he saw what working your ass off like Ethan Bear can do for one’s career – a year ago, there were large question marks about Bear’s skating, his abilty to handle battles, etc. – Bear accepted that he had deficiencies and did everything in his power to change that.

  40. Genjutsu says:

    Golf is a rich man’s sport.

    So is hockey.

    Really anything you need equipment to play is.

  41. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I took his word at face value regarding his type of training, that spending the off-season in Nashville recording didn’t interfere, etc. and, while I can’t prove cause and effect, well, things didn’t go well for him right off the start.

    Hopefully he saw what working your ass off like Ethan Bear can do for one’s career – a year ago, there were large question marks about Bear’s skating, his abilty to handle battles, etc. – Bear accepted that he had deficiencies and did everything in his power to change that.

    I don’t want to be too negative, we don’t know what Holland, Tippett and the staff saw. But he sure didn’t come off sounding like a committed player in that interview. And things certainly didn’t go well from the get go. Hopefully he can rebound this year – he absolutely has skill and he looked like like a real prospect a year ago.

  42. geowal says:

    Just watched Paul Coffey score on Gilles Meloche in a 1986 game.
    Edit: make it two

  43. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft

    https://theathletic.com/1746624/2020/04/16/lowetide-why-jan-mysak-could-be-a-value-pick-for-the-oilers-at-the-2020-draft/

  44. Material Elvis says:

    I play lots of hockey on multiple teams. There are teachers, plumbers, military members, electricians, carpenters, construction workers……the list goes on and on. None of those guys are rich. You are quite wrong.

  45. Munny says:

    Lowetide: Button is a pure scout though. McKenzie’s is the consensus.

    It’s not even close to a consensus. There is no agreement even being attempted. It’s a simple poll and the end results are an average. How this keeps getting labelled a consensus is beyond me.

  46. WedgeAntilles says:

    Life is a rich man’s sport.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: It’s not even close to a consensus.There is no agreement even being attempted. It’s a simple poll and the end results are an average.How this keeps getting labelled a consensus is beyond me.

    I get what you’re pitching in regards to the actual tight definition of “consensus” but in this case using it as short hand for “the majority of scouts had him there or close” is reasonable.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yost with a piece on dominate lines.

    DraiNugAmoto shows up very well here:

    https://www.tsn.ca/yost-dominant-lines-on-full-display-this-nhl-season-1.1467127

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