This Masquerade

This time a year ago, I would have told you that Kailer Yamamoto had the higher ceiling but that Tyler Benson was more of a sure bet to have an NHL career. I felt (still feel) Benson can find a role as a two-way winger while also having the talent to make it as a complementary player on a skill line. Is he on the verge of an NHL career?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Flashback: When ‘Oil Change’ revealed key details of Oilers’ 1979, 2010 drafts
  • New Lowetide: Edmonton’s Sports Hall of Fame should have 3 founding members
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
  • Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
  • Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option

LT 21-40 NHLE’S

Here we reach the annual ‘dazed and confused’ portion of my draft list. Players who were ranked high early and then struggled (Holloway) are mixed in with late breakers (Mysak) and I spend a couple of months figuring things out.

I’ve been moving Guhle down all year, now I think he’s too low. Neighbours could move up, but I think he’s going to have an Ethan Moreau career as opposed to being a consistent offensive contributor. Nothing wrong with that, but do you draft that player in the first round?

Ridly Greig will move up, Wallinder too, but the rest have issues and we could see several move down. Tomorrow: 41-63.

TYLER BENSON

Benson is tracking a little behind Dillon Dube, the two men were chosen in the same round of the same year and the numbers have been consistent over several years.

Benson has been a little behind each season, with age 19 seeing Dube spike and he arrived about six months (and counting) before Benson. Is it reasonable to suggest that Benson might play in 45 games next season? Post 14-20 points? I think that’s the range.

Ideally Benson gets an NHL center similar to Cooper Marody (RH, very skilled) although that player is not on the roster. He had limited minutes with Riley Sheahan as his pivot (45 minutes, 42.68 Corsi, 1-3 goals) and 11:52 with Gaetan Haas (82.35 Corsi, no goals).

  • Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
  • Nuge—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Tyler Benson—Colton Sissons—Josh Archibald
  • Joakim Nygard—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson
  • James Neal, Jujhar Khaira
  • Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard
  • Kris Russell
  • Mikko Koskinen, Anton Khudobin

Miles to go before we’re discussing nuts and bolts solutions as a reality, but I think the key additions to the roster will include rookies Benson and Bouchard.

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148 Responses to "This Masquerade"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Switch Scissons for Mikael Gralund and we’ve got something……. sail on Rusty, sail in Granny (the good one).

    If I remember correctly, last off-season we were thinking Benson could hopefully play 45 games and get 15 points. It seems we may be a year behind.

    I as well think he can be an NHL player, a middle six guy with some top 6 potential.

    The skating is what it is – I don’t think its as “bad” or prohibitive as some do but its not a positive and something he’ll have to battle through.

    WIth that skill, vision, work ethic and hockey IQ, there is a player here. He just turned 22 – this is a big season, he needs to take a few steps.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think most of us agree that Bouchard will be a material addition to the roster.

    LT, do you think Bouch is on the roster for Game 1 or via recall (which will be quite early I’m sure)?

    Do you have Rusty sailing on? A second d-man joining him (Benning)?

  3. geowal says:

    His roster looks like Benning is sailing but not Russell

  4. slopitch says:

    Ya I could see the Oilers keep it small. Move Russell, promote Benson, Lagesson and Bouchard. Find one more 4th liner and see how the team does. Move JP for 2 late 2nds to Ottawa and pocket some assets for the TDD if they are doing well.

    Katz might actually want to sit under the cap this year. Surely the team isnt selling out in this economy.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Switch Scissons for Mikael Gralund and we’ve got something……. sail on Rusty, sail in Granny (the good one).

    Granlund hasn’t played center since 2015-16. His stats took off in a big way when the Wild switched him to wing. I think that’s where he belongs.

    Nice player though… might be a good bet for a top-6 wing position in Edmonton, depending on the price.

  6. ArmchairGM says:

    I would imagine it’ll be a lot easier to move Benning than Russell in a flat cap world.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Granlund last played center consistently in 2015-16.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Bah. Sorry. Stated the same exact thing after you above. He has eroded a little offensively in the last couple of years, and of course that’s typical as a player exits his prime. Interesting addition for sure.

  9. Eh Team says:

    slopitch: Katz might actually want to sit under the cap this year. Surely the team isnt selling out in this economy

    If the next season starts on time, it might be with empty buildings. Even if not, a lot of people aren’t going to be comfortable sitting in a building with 15,000+ others.

  10. doritogrande says:

    Did Nygard kill penalties? If no, I can’t imagine he sees daily play over both Khaira and Neal who were mainstays of special teams.

  11. Munny says:

    The Edmonton Grads arrived in 1978? lol.

    If they’re not the first inductees into an Edmonton Sports Hall of Fame, there’s something wrong.

  12. PennersPancakes says:

    Looks like Nygard only played 6.2 minutes on the PK this season. Not sure if he played PK in the SHL but by the eye test he has decent positioning and his speed can help keep opposing PPs on their toes.

    Tough to know what TIppet’s thoughts are but this was Nygards first season in NA and he only got 33 games due to injury. His early extension after such a limited showing suggests to me that Holland and Tippet like what they saw.

  13. ArmchairGM says:

    I do that all the time, no worries. With Granlund, the key thing is the price. There might be some crazy GM out there willing to throw $5M x 5 at him, but if not, we could pick up a pretty nice winger for a decent dollar – something that doesn’t happen often in free agency. He’s a year younger than Zack Kassian… if he’d sign a 3-year deal for similar money I’d certainly have time for that conversation.

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    If we’re looking for a 3C, what about Stepan with 50% retained? What would that cost? He’s had a couple of bad years in a row, this one worse than the last, has one year left on his deal and might well rebound a bit. He’s good defensively, he PK’s and he’s a right shot – if that matters.

    Thoughts?

  15. defmn says:

    Money is the great unknown for next year, of course. It must be keeping GM’s awake at night not knowing what they can spend.

    The roster above is a playoff team, imo, but the money doesn’t work if the cap remains flat. The cap remaining flat is probably the optimistic view of how things will go.

    So we are all guessing but I like to know what things cost so I punched in the current roster’s tab, added Sisson’s salary, gave AA his qualifying offer of $3 mil, Sheahan signed for $1 mil as a guess and I lowballed Bear at $2.4 mil for one year just because of all the uncertainty. I don’t think that is what will happen but I wanted to see how much that left me for a 1B goalie on a $81.5 mil cap.

    The answer is $2.25 mil which might get Khudobin and might not.

    I think Holland has to do something with KRussell or Neal this summer and both of those look a lot tougher than they did just a month ago.

  16. Munny says:

    defmn: The answer is $2.25 mil which might get Khudobin and might not.

    Less than that even, because Holland will have to cover for injuries and the trade deadline. Needs about half a mill in cushion is my envelope estimate.

  17. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’ve been consulting worldometer quite a bit in the past month because reasons. Today I stumbled upon another of their web pages entirely by accident.

    Current World Population

    Does anyone else sometimes suffer from odometer thrall? Their extrapolated world-population odometer is going to roll over to 7,777,777,777 within the next half hour. Stay tuned. Fun times.

    But i had to kind of laugh out loud, because I’m not entirely sure they bothered to adjust the daily death rate with their own extensive tabulations of the recent mortality bubble.

    What’s kind of shocking is how linear the population increment has been over my lifetime. Somewhere around a consistent 80 million extra mouths to feed, year over year, year after year. Almost all of the present increase is driven by 20th-century life-expectancy improvements becoming more globally distributed.

  18. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we’re looking for a 3C, what about Stepan with 50% retained? What would that cost? He’s had a couple of bad years in a row, this one worse than the last, has one year left on his deal and might well rebound a bit. He’s good defensively, he PK’s and he’s a right shot – if that matters.

    Thoughts?

    Faceoff wise he’s about league average. Except in the neutral zone where he gets ate up… maybe he has only one strong move so saves it for when it matters more? Took 2.8 faceoffs per game on the PK which indicates regular usage to me.

    His offense is fine for a 3C and there’s some battle in his game. Having played up the line up earlier in his career, we know he has hands, vision, talent.

    Haven’t looked at his fancies.

    Not sure the Yotes would be willing to trade. They had to play Soderberg at 4C this past season due to a lack of depth up the middle, although Soderberg did well considering. Better than Stepan actually and with less minutes, but likely playing the chumps.

    ARI would also have to retain half salary, which I don’t see them doing… maybe at the deadline?

  19. jp says:

    Granlund is also going to cost more than $2.85M.

  20. New Improved Darkness says:

    Appears I eyeballed the rate wrong. But you will get 7777766666 within roughly that timeframe, one of the nicest odometer-thrall consolation prizes I’ve countenanced in my lifetime.

  21. jp says:

    I was going to ask if Sissons brings any more offsets than Sheahan. Ha! They have both scored 1.24 5v5/60 over the past 3 seasons. (Sheahan’s scoring is biased to 3 yrs ago though)

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nicholson on a conference call today:

    – asked about the season – of course he talks about the team being focussed on completing the current campaign (playoffs) and knows that Bettman and the league are putting plans together for any scenario including one that would have the 2020/21 season starting in November and ending late June (allowing some extra time to get this year’s playoffs done)

    – asked about the Hlinka/Gretzky – should have info in the next 7-10 days. Did allude to the main focus is on the NHL completion (if possible) so, if the NHL is playing in August……

    – asked about how long in to the summer/fall they can try and complete this season – Gary talks alot about starting next season at beginning of November – various options that include this season and the playoffs up to November 1

    – will make these types of decisions when its deemed safe to play

    – asked about the economy and if the Oilers will have to look at ticket prices – Nicholson essentially said yes – lots will have to be looked at to ensure a healthy business – both for the Oilers and the league.

    —————–

    Personally I still don’t see this season being continued but it seems the NHL still very much thinks it can happen and is willing to play late.

    I can see empty arenas for the completion of this season but I just can’t see that making sense economically for any portion of the 2020/21 (or future) season. Starting in November – can that be done with fans?

  23. jp says:

    Yeah I think it’s going to be very difficult to upgrade anything with a flat cap if Neal and/or Russell can’t be moved.

    It absolutely does look tougher to do now, unless there are compliance buyouts (and I think a regular buyout might be on the table for Neal regardless).

  24. geowal says:

    I still don’t think you’ll have to wait that long

  25. Munny says:

    Via the Washington Post:

    The US State Department received two cables from US Embassy officials in 2018 warning of inadequate safety at a Wuhan, China biolab conducting ‘risky studies’ on bat coronaviruses. The cables have “fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus.”

    I’ve mentioned a couple of times in passing that this virus is not presenting like a typical zoonotic transmission. These labs are by far and away the most likely source, which makes the Chinese cover-up even more reprehensible.

  26. fries n gravy says:

    If the options are “cancel 2019-20 season & playoffs” or “play in empty buildings”, I imagine they’ll choose Option B. Live revenue would be gone, but TV revenue would remain plus The Brand (critical to any non-essential business) would stay active.

    Bettman & NHLPA have to choose between poor options, but they still get to choose the best of the bunch. It’s much better to have a TV league in 2020-21 than no league at all.

  27. jtblack says:

    “Starting in November – can that be done with fans?”

    if that is the only alternative, then yes. **EDIT**

    I see with instead of without. I don’t see fans being in the buildings in November. I hope they are, but don’t see it happening.

    I don’t know what new normal is going to be ….. but we know it won’t be exactly the same as it was …

  28. dustrock says:

    Probably been mentioned in previous threads but I’m finally starting to look at draft prospects (in April! This is unheard of!) and Steve Kournianos at the Draft Analyst has Mavrik Bourque ranked at #11 back in January.

    https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2020-nhl-draft/2020-draft-profile-c-mavrik-bourque/

    Sounds like a great player but not sure if he’ll be available.

    Although to be fair in Steve’s mock from late February he has the Oilers taking Yannic’s son Perrault over both Bourque and Zary.

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/nhl-mock-draft-2020-red-wings-move-to-the-top-get-alexis-lafreniere-senators-select-forwards-back-to-back/1l6z5vk3tfl3a1o30ap4obcykb

    Jarvis at #15, Quinn at #16, Mysak at #20.

  29. dustrock says:

    I’ve seen Kournianos mention a couple of times this season that he thinks the defence and goaltending overall in the OHL the last couple of years has been pretty poor and it’s a real goal-scoring league right now.

    He said to look at backing off a bit with some of the NHLe ratings for some of these players.

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Via the Washington Post:


    The US State Department received two cables from US Embassy officials in 2018 warning of inadequate safety at a Wuhan, China biolab conducting ‘risky studies’ on bat coronaviruses.The cables have “fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus.”

    I’ve mentioned a couple of times in passing that this virus is not presenting like a typical zoonotic transmission.These labs are by far and away the most likely source, which makes the Chinese cover-up even more reprehensible.

    Now the question is was it accidental or deliberate.

  31. Munny says:

    I’ll go with Occam (which also indicates lab, not wet market) and say most likely accidental. Remember they did it to themselves first and are nowhere near being out of the woods.

  32. Munny says:

    The cover-up is more interesting, including the efforts by Twitter and Facebook to disallow any theories presented on their sites that aren’t wet market based, despite official sources saying we don’t know, and that the wet market is one possibility..

  33. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson

    https://theathletic.com/1740724/2020/04/14/lowetide-oilers-need-to-find-or-get-real-value-in-william-lagesson/

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    I’ve seen Kournianos mention a couple of times this season that he thinks the defence and goaltending overall in the OHL the last couple of years has been pretty poor and it’s a real goal-scoring league right now.

    He said to look at backing off a bit with some of the NHLe ratings for some of these players.

    I’ve read that too. I wonder if looking at all 3 CHL leagues as equals would be apropos.

  35. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair,

    The Senate has just introduced a bill that would strip China of its sovereign immunity and allow them to be sued by private entities over Covid-19.

    We’ll see where that goes…

  36. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Harpers Hair,

    The Senate has just introduced a bill that would strip China of its sovereign immunity and allow them to be sued by private entities over Covid-19.

    We’ll see where that goes…

    It’s going to be a very different world when this plays out.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s going to be a very different world when this plays out.

    It’s going to be exactly the same world.

    Overpopulated, economically hijacked by banking interests.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    One other thing to note on potential continuation of the 2019/20 campaign is that, on CNN yesterday afternoon, one of the things Bettman said as the players would need 2-3 weeks before games are played in order to get back up to speed. Aside from virus safety, they do need to make sure the players are ready to play the games.

    I’m not sure if that means 2-3 weeks from when they start skating on their own or in smaller groups or 2-3 weeks once allowed to be together.

    On that note, NHL extended the mandatory quarantine for players to April 30.

  39. Munny says:

    NHL extends self-quarantine recommendation to April 30 today as expected.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Granlund last played center consistently in 2015-16.

    Fair enough.

    He could play 2LW and have Nuge as 3C – ha, just kidding, not going there – Nuge is now a left winger and top line left winger.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Granlund is also going to cost more than $2.85M.

    Correct – hence the “sail on Rusty” in the same sentence where I suggested Granlund.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I would imagine it’ll be a lot easier to move Benning than Russell in a flat cap world.

    For sure but Holland’s primary task this off-season is to find a way to unload Rusty, in my opinion.

    Its a cap space move that’s required for the Oilers to make that one material external acquisition (3C).

    To me:

    – moving Benning: (1) doesn’t create the cap space and (2) requires a RD replacement in any event for depth

    – moving Rusty (1) creates the cap space for the external acquisition and (2) doesn’t require a replacement, Lagesson is the replacement

    Easier said than done, I get that.

  43. Munny says:

    Colby Cave Memorial Fund now accepting donations.

  44. Sunnyboy says:

    Colby Cave 1994-2020 We celebrate a life lived with purpose and passion and a great goal attained. RIP #12

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: If the next season starts on time, it might be with empty buildings.Even if not, a lot of people aren’t going to be comfortable sitting in a building with 15,000+ others.

    Some speculation that the league is willing to start 2020/21 in November in order to get a “finish” to the paused season in.

    Whether fans in the stands is “permitted/allowed” at that time, I don’t know.

    While I can see playing with no fans in the stands in order to get something done to complete 2019/20, I just can’t see them playing regular season games in the 2020/21 season without fans in the stands.

    Current economics have over 50% of revenue from gate.

    Sure, they can structure things like PPV but, at the end of the day, I think that will lose its appeal to many quite early.

    I think 2020/21 needs to start with people in the arenas.

    Whether people will be willing to go to arenas is another facet – if the health authorities say its safe, I’ll be fine to go but I may not be in the majority.

  46. Todd Macallan says:

    Thanks. Done.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    doritogrande:
    Did Nygard kill penalties? If no, I can’t imagine he sees daily play over both Khaira and Neal who were mainstays of special teams.

    Given the terms of the contract, I was fine with the re-signing but, at the same time, didn’t really see the need to do it so early. Like Haas, I’m not so sure Nygard is an every day NHL player – he seems to have lots of the tools, speed, some skill, decent brain but something wasn’t there this year. Not to mention his penchant for getting banged up with the more physical style of play.

    I think management may be betting on him being better in his second season in North America.

    You special terms point is a good one. To me Khaira plays every night. He’s a better 5 on 5 player than he showed this past year (and did start to “recover” in recent games) and his PK is high end.

    As far as Neal on the PP – well, we know that he and Chiasson split the time on PP1 and, while Neal himself had better numbers than Chiasson, PP1 itself produced better with Chiasson.

    I don’t know what the above statement really means except that, aside from moving Rusty and finding a 3C with the cap space, I think Holland needs to find a way to NOT have both Chiasson and Neal on the roster.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    fries n gravy:
    If the options are “cancel 2019-20 season & playoffs” or “play in empty buildings”, I imagine they’ll choose Option B.Live revenue would be gone, but TV revenue would remain plus The Brand (critical to any non-essential business) would stay active.

    Bettman & NHLPA have to choose between poor options, but they still get to choose the best of the bunch.It’s much better to have a TV league in 2020-21 than no league at all.

    I don’t see fans in their seats next year
    So I think the league has to start thinking about that and if that is the case why not finish this year
    Sure no gate revenue, but people are so starved for sports that people in the US would even watch hockey right now

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Kailer has seized the opportunity presented big time and ran with: there is no denying

    – That said, he’s the first winger given a decent opportunity to play beside RNH and Drai, on a “2nd line”, behind McD and his line

    – He’s also the first winger that played one a 2nd line that also had D that were capable of distributing the puck.

    – So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well

    – The story is more about the maturation of the team, the ability to split up Drai and McD, and have adequate scoring and competent distributors of the puck on 2 lines

    – Looking at different line match-ups and comparing them to this version of Kailer-Drai-RNH doesn’t give much IMO: as no other player was put in the set of circumstances outlined.

    – Without Drai and RNH, on a 2nd line, Kailer doesn’t make it IMO. But good for the organization for setting him up for success: they delivered, as did Kailer. Its just not all about Kailer though

  50. Victoria Oil says:

    Agreed.

    Move Krusty the Kowboy after his signing bonus is paid with 50% retained for a 7th round pick. Other team gets Russell for $750k actual salary and a $2 mln cap hit. Sign Lagesson for $800k x 2 years.

    Oilers effectively move from one year with Russell at $4 mln to (an upgrade? with) Lagesson at a net cost of $2.8 mln the first year and $800k the second year. Keep Benning until next year”s trade deadline at least.

    Easy peasy, Bob’s your uncle (assuming we can find a buyer for KRusty).

  51. dustrock says:

    I agree with this. The coaches see these guys in practice though, and I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that they would have to run different lineup combinations.

    So is Benson not given a chance to play with Nuge & Drai, or do they know Benson (for example) well enough that he wouldn’t be a good fit?

    It’s hard to parse sometimes what they can actually accomplish in practice with the schedule – you think it would be time to experiment with different looks, but it sounds like it’s more about working the systems.

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    The US Government cuts all funding to the WHO.

  53. Munny says:

    Good.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we’re looking for a 3C, what about Stepan with 50% retained? What would that cost? He’s had a couple of bad years in a row, this one worse than the last, has one year left on his deal and might well rebound a bit. He’s good defensively, he PK’s and he’s a right shot – if that matters.

    Thoughts?

    The key there is the 50% retained as, for a smidgen over $3M for one year, I’d have interest but not for double that.

  55. wolf8888 says:

    I’m not sure Drai agrees with you. He has stated that Yamo has brought a huge amount to the line with his smarts and tenaciousness. watch him play and then think of who else would bring what he does to the line.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Speaking of the Coyotes, I’ll be quite interested to see what their punishment is for physically testing prospects outside the rules.

    From what I hear, guilt is not in question.

    I hope the punishment is material and a high draft pick is lost.

    Not being invited to participate in the combine was a no-brainer but, given there will be no combine….

    Its interesting how little attention this seems to be getting.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    Money is the great unknown for next year, of course. It must be keeping GM’s awake at night not knowing what they can spend.

    The roster above is a playoff team, imo, but the money doesn’t work if the cap remains flat. The cap remaining flat is probably the optimistic view of how things will go.

    So we are all guessing but I like to know what things cost so I punched in the current roster’s tab, added Sisson’s salary, gave AA his qualifying offer of $3 mil, Sheahan signed for $1 mil as a guess and I lowballed Bear at $2.4 mil for one year just because of all the uncertainty. I don’t think that is what will happen but I wanted to see how much that left me for a 1B goalie on a $81.5 mil cap.

    The answer is $2.25 mil which might get Khudobin and might not.

    I think Holland has to do something with KRussell or Neal this summer and both of those look a lot tougher than they did just a month ago.

    Any material external acquisition is predicated on a Rusty disposition – even Scissons, let alone Granlund or better – at least in my opinion.

    Take out Rusty’s $4M and add in $1M for his roster replacement (be it Lagesson or Bouchard) and there is a bit more money.

    I like Greiss as a target but think he’ll be too expensive. Khuodobin would work just fine as well (and is on my target list) but, again, I think he’ll be too expensive.

    ————–

    Oh, and, I think your signings are reasonable – I don’t think AA gets much more than his QO and I do see Bear coming in under $3M on a one year deal (maybe two years even).

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Yeah I think it’s going to be very difficult to upgrade anything with a flat cap if Neal and/or Russell can’t be moved.

    It absolutely does look tougher to do now, unless there are compliance buyouts (and I think a regular buyout might be on the table for Neal regardless).

    I’m not 100% certain that Katz will agree to a buyout of Neal, even a compliance one.

    Of course, there is real money cost-savings (the amount of which depends on how much of the cap savings is spend on the replacement) but, at the end of the day, is still pay large sums to a player to no play and go away.

    Katz has always spend every penny that management has asked (seemingly) – multiple coaches and GMs, buyouts, burying NHL salaries in the AHL, etc., so I have nothing to go on to suggest that he won’t continue to except, well, real world issues.

  59. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    As a divisional rival I’d also like to see them lose a high pick. It would be nice to see more follow up on this matter as I’d all but forgotten about it until your post. I suppose it’s one of many (most) things to take a spot on the back burner.

    As an aside, I’d like to see better testing implemented into the combine. Measuring actual hockey skills would seem… prudent.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    fries n gravy:
    If the options are “cancel 2019-20 season & playoffs” or “play in empty buildings”, I imagine they’ll choose Option B.Live revenue would be gone, but TV revenue would remain plus The Brand (critical to any non-essential business) would stay active.

    Bettman & NHLPA have to choose between poor options, but they still get to choose the best of the bunch.It’s much better to have a TV league in 2020-21 than no league at all.

    I don’t disagree with that – as it relates to the 2019/20 season.

    As far as the 2020/21 season, I don’t see them playing in empty arenas.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson

    https://theathletic.com/1740724/2020/04/14/lowetide-oilers-need-to-find-or-get-real-value-in-william-lagesson/

    In my opinion he has significant value as the 7D on the roster out of camp (replacing Rusty on the roster at a cap savings of over $3M given he should re-sign in the Caleb Jones range).

    Sign him for two years, get him 40 games this year and he can be the d-man exposed in the expansion draft……

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    So, today’s recipe just in time for your brunch tomorrow.

    Korean Street Toast.

    Kind of like grilled cheese sandwiches on healthy steroids.

    Shred 1/2 cup cabbage, 1/2 cup carrots, 2 tablespoons green onions, crumbled cheese of your choice.

    Put shredded items in a small bowl and add an egg. Stir completely.

    Sauté with a tablespoon or more of butter in a skillet (cast iron works best) forming into a rectangle as it cooks.

    Cook on one side until crisp and then flip to crisp the other side,

    Meanwhile, add butter to the other side of the pan and grill two slices of bread.

    When all is crisp, place one slice of grilled bread on a plate and place your pattie on it.

    The Korean version says to sprinkle with sugar but you can add ketchup, mustard and mayonnaise to suit.

    I also added a lash of Nando’s Piri Piri sauce for some heat.

    Cover with second slice of bread and slice or roll up in aluminum foil and eat like a burrito.

    Enjoy!

  63. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can see empty arenas for the completion of this season but I just can’t see that making sense economically for any portion of the 2020/21 (or future) season. Starting in November – can that be done with fans?

    My take for any possible playoffs, and for next season, is a scenario with fans in arenas but respecting social distancing.

    Teams would play hockey as normal with the product on TV, plus reduced capacities at arenas (likely with the existing seats a more luxury item). Even if they can only fit 10% of the normal # of fans in the arena with safe distancing, those tickets at premium prices plus the TV audience (and maybe PPV as well) would bring in pretty significant revenue relative to no hockey at all.

    It would also take extensive testing of the players/staff to make sure the teams stay Covid-free, but I think the new normal will look like this for a while at least.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Why do so many posters look to outside expensive solutions that will create more problems than they solve. You will not get UFA players on short term contracts unless you are willing to wait. The players you can get on contracts the Oilers can afford due cap restraints will not be the ideal fit and will be gambles. Signing any UFA at market price for term is a recipe for disaster! Paying players for past performance is a fools play! I see a number of posters that bring up names that would have been ideal 3 to 5 years ago. If the team that they are on that know them best are unwilling to give them the money and the length of contract they want why the hell should we. End rant.

  65. godot10 says:

    jp:
    Yeah I think it’s going to be very difficult to upgrade anything with a flat cap if Neal and/or Russell can’t be moved.

    It absolutely does look tougher to do now, unless there are compliance buyouts (and I think a regular buyout might be on the table for Neal regardless).

    Buyouts are easy when they are with other peoples’ money.

    This year owners will be spending their own money on buyouts. The league is now cash poor. Buyouts will be scarce.

    If the owners want a slew of buyouts, they will ask for a league wide salary rollback first, and a much lower cap. If the cap is flat. and escrow is used to fudge the massive difference between cap dollars and HRR (actual dollars) buyouts are not going to happen.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well

    I don’t remember ever seeing any player come up from the AHL and do what Yamamoto did for his 20 or so games.

    He was starting to look tired, so maybe the lockdown is a good thing for him.

  67. geowal says:

    Sure is…this post is the first I’ve heard of it. So they did what now? Had their own private little combine or something?

  68. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    wolf8888:
    I’m not sure Drai agrees with you. He has stated that Yamo has brought a huge amount to the line with his smarts and tenaciousness. watch him play and then think of who else would bring what he does to the line.

    – I dont think my position and Drais are mutually exclusive.

    – For sure Drai likes what he sees in Kailer.

    – But he never had a winger on a line under the circumstances outlined.

    – Anyway I fawn less over Kailer per se than the consensus. I think the impact has more to do with the circumstances that Kailer ran with.

    – Without those linemates and being a 2nd line on a good team with good D Kailer doesn’t have the impact that Drai recognizes.

    – Kailer was the recipient and took advantage of the opportunity he was afforded. I’d bet a lot that a Pool or a Benson or any other talented winger with skill given the same opportunity excels

    – It’s exactly like the maroon or Kassian or Neal or RNH last year or whoever plays with McD: good for them. But it’s the situation they were given.

    – Onky Drai went super Nova with McD.

    – I think people falsely attribute things to Kailer much as they would to a Kassian or Maroon etc.

    – I don’t hate Kailer : I think though the praise is perhaps a little misguided.

    – I can’t think of a better situation in Hockey in years, afforded to one player: essentially a rookie who gets placed on a 2nd line with players as elite as Drai and RNH, on a winning team. It just such an outlier: that most fail to identify when giving mad props to Kailer, who to reiterate has been awesome.

    – Should Kailer get injured, and another player is given the exact same opportunity with Drai and RNH (with a healthy McD on another line, good D partners, and the team playing well), we will be able to test my thesis. I bet that guy does just as well if he gets 20 games…

  69. pts2pndr says:

    Neal scored 19 goals. How many teams would line up to acquire him with 50% retained.
    If the player has value the team he is with walks away laughing. If the team that has him under contract is willing to move said player all kinds of red flags should come up!

  70. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The US Government cuts all funding to the WHO.

    It’s a start. De-funding the entire U.N. would be better. Without doubt the most corrupt organization on the face of the planet and that is saying something.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Agreed.

    Move Krusty the Kowboy after his signing bonus is paid with 50% retained for a 7th round pick. Other team gets Russell for $750k actual salary and a $2 mln cap hit. Sign Lagesson for $800k x 2 years.

    Oilers effectively move from one year with Russell at $4 mln to (an upgrade? with) Lagesson at a net cost of $2.8 mln the first year and $800k the second year. Keep Benning until next year”s trade deadline at least.

    Easy peasy, Bob’s your uncle (assuming we can find a buyer for KRusty).

    Well, the issue with that is that you are only moving out $2M of cap commitment – we need the $4M.

    I know, easier said than done.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Kailer has seized the opportunity presented big time and ran with: there is no denying

    – That said, he’s the first winger given a decent opportunity to play beside RNH and Drai, on a “2nd line”, behind McD and his line

    – He’s also the first winger that played one a 2nd line that also had D that were capable of distributing the puck.

    – So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well

    – The story is more about the maturation of the team, the ability to split up Drai and McD, and have adequate scoring and competent distributors of the puck on 2 lines

    – Looking at different line match-ups and comparing them to this version of Kailer-Drai-RNH doesn’t give much IMO: as no other player was put in the set of circumstances outlined.

    – Without Drai and RNH, on a 2nd line, Kailer doesn’t make it IMO.But good for the organization for setting him up for success: they delivered, as did Kailer.Its just not all about Kailer though

    dustrock:
    I agree with this.The coaches see these guys in practice though, and I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that they would have to run different lineup combinations.

    So is Benson not given a chance to play with Nuge & Drai, or do they know Benson (for example) well enough that he wouldn’t be a good fit?

    It’s hard to parse sometimes what they can actually accomplish in practice with the schedule – you think it would be time to experiment with different looks, but it sounds like it’s more about working the systems.

    With respect to Kinger’s post, well, yes, Yamamoto did get the opportunity to play on a talented “2nd line” generally behind McDavid (I say generally because that line played together for a few games without McDavid in the lineup – successfully I might add).

    With that said, I think Kinger’s post doesn’t do justice to Yamamoto’s contribution to that line – he was not a passenger deferring to the other two but he was a material and consistent contributor to the line’s success – a few times being the best player in a game.

    I would also posit that he wasn’t necessarily the benefactor of a deeper team that was able to split McDavid and Drai but he materially created that depth that allowed them to split the two.

    ————

    With respect to line combos tried in practice, well, we essentially get advised of line rushes on game skates and lines as practice and, while there is some mixing and matching, they generally represent the game lines – I don’t recall (going by memory), Benson getting line rushes with McDavid or Drai in practice, for example.

  73. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Kailer has seized the opportunity presented big time and ran with: there is no denying

    – That said, he’s the first winger given a decent opportunity to play beside RNH and Drai, on a “2nd line”, behind McD and his line

    – He’s also the first winger that played one a 2nd line that also had D that were capable of distributing the puck.

    – So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well

    – The story is more about the maturation of the team, the ability to split up Drai and McD, and have adequate scoring and competent distributors of the puck on 2 lines

    – Looking at different line match-ups and comparing them to this version of Kailer-Drai-RNH doesn’t give much IMO: as no other player was put in the set of circumstances outlined.

    – Without Drai and RNH, on a 2nd line, Kailer doesn’t make it IMO.But good for the organization for setting him up for success: they delivered, as did Kailer.Its just not all about Kailer though

    “– So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well”

    Accessing memories of KY’s play this season… processing… processing…

    Hmm… does not compute… you must have totally different memories.

    My memories have KY playing like Dayum! What happened was the team found an all-star and put him on Drai and RNH’s line. Did you know they went 28-8 on goals together? What different line matchups were you looking at on our team that compared well to that? Drai and RNH have never had success together like they’ve had with KY this year, not even when they played with Hall. Heck, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen each of them play as well as they did with KY.

    There’s a simple reason for that. It’s not our fresh new competent puck distributors. KY played like a straight out all-star, unbelievable getting the puck, playing with the puck, playing without the puck… making plays, plays, plays. Genuinely special, way, way outside the expected result from “many wingers”.

    I wish there was a YT highlight reel I could point you to. Maybe when hockey comes back. Only us crusty hard cores paying any attention right now.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: It’s a start. De-funding the entire U.N. would be better. Without doubt the most corrupt organization on the face of the planet and that is saying something.

    Agree completely.

    Start a new organization that only admits Nations with a high degree of democracy and transparency.

    Let the authoritarians and despots stew in their own juices.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Sure is…this post is the first I’ve heard of it. So they did what now? Had their own private little combine or something?

    Ya, from reports they fitness tested a bunch before the 2019 draft.

    As per Dreger from February:

    Sources say it’s believed there are at least 20 incidents of the Arizona Coyotes fitness testing draft eligible players. NHL deputy commissioner, Bill Daly and NHL lawyers are now managing the case.

    1,569
    9:23 AM – Feb 8, 2020

  76. Glovjuice says:

    hunter1909: It’s going to be exactly the same world.

    Overpopulated, economically hijacked by banking interests.

    Seeing OP “pop up” (blam!!)(pow!!) with the next post after these last few posts is like a good SNL skit.

  77. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges: Should Kailer get injured, and another player is given the exact same opportunity with Drai and RNH (with a healthy McD on another line, good D partners, and the team playing well), we will be able to test my thesis. I bet that guy does just as well if he gets 20 games…

    – I don’t this view and mine as mutually exclusive. I’m effusive in his praise. Just a little more nuanced than most.

    – If that guy is given the same opportunity, and doesn’t do as well, so be it, but with the caveat:

    – Kailer was on a all-world heater to boot: 108 PDO and scoring on 1 of every 4 shots.

    – So upon further reflection, the next guy who comes up should Kailer go down to injury is unlikely to have the same stats (nor will Kailer):

    – Should Kailer get injured, and another player is given exact same opportunity with Drai and RNH (with a healthy McD on another line, good D partners, the team playing well), we will test my thesis. I bet that guy does pretty well if he gets 20 games, but won’t have a 25% sH%, or 108 PDO

    * and of course some of those guys didn’t do as well years ago: that was my point: those teams were sh$t, and they were playing on the first line. Anyway who knows if I’m right…

  78. Georges says:

    hunter1909: It’s going to be exactly the same world.

    Overpopulated, economically hijacked by banking interests.

    100% agree. The world has been completely hijacked by baking interests.

  79. Georges says:

    Heh

  80. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Agree completely.

    Start a new organization that only admits Nations with a high degree of democracy and transparency.

    Let the authoritarians and despots stew in their own juices.

    I have been pushing the ‘United Democracies’ idea for 30 years.

    The idea that dictatorships and democracies have similar objectives is dangerously delusional.

  81. jp says:

    Yes, buyouts will be harder too. Doesn’t mean they won’t happen but for sure owners will be less likely to throw away those real dollars.

    So, what $1M C does Neal get to play with? 🙂

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    Georges: 100% agree. The world has been completely hijacked by baking interests.

    Fucking Belgian bastards.

  83. who says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Agreed.

    Move Krusty the Kowboy after his signing bonus is paid with 50% retained for a 7th round pick. Other team gets Russell for $750k actual salary and a $2 mln cap hit. Sign Lagesson for $800k x 2 years.

    Oilers effectively move from one year with Russell at $4 mln to (an upgrade? with) Lagesson at a net cost of $2.8 mln the first year and $800k the second year. Keep Benning until next year”s trade deadline at least.

    Easy peasy, Bob’s your uncle (assuming we can find a buyer for KRusty).

    This doesn’t make any sense to me.
    If you are going to retain 2 million on Russell and get a 7th rounder, why not just trade Benning for a 3rd?
    The cap hit would be the same and you keep the dman the coach prefers.

  84. pts2pndr says:

    So what term do you expect the team can get Granlund on?

  85. Ben says:

    Theo?

  86. pts2pndr says:

    The golf course opens tomorrow. I like hockey a lot! I don’t think I am that different from most Canadians in that given summer is short I am not willing to give up summer to have twelve months of winter. There is no way that I will be inside watching TV at 4 PM pacific to watch an east coast game when there are so many other things I can be doing with the list too long to get into. Assuming that the NHL continues with their plans it will be interesting to see what CBC and other networks do when their expected ratings drop like the stock market. I will watch and or PVR Oiler games if it is convenient. If the league decides to delay the start of the the 20/21 season they will have to lure me back. The average North American will have a great deal of reconnecting to do and hockey may not be their number one priority. I like to believe that I have a life and that hockey is only a small part of that life.

  87. Munny says:

    100 percent agreed.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges: “– So while Kailer is to be applauded, my suspicion is that there would be many wingers who given a 20 game audition with the same set of circumstances, would do quite well”

    Accessing memories of KY’s play this season… processing… processing…

    Hmm… does not compute… you must have totally different memories.

    My memories have KY playing like Dayum! What happened was the team found an all-star and put him on Drai and RNH’s line. Did you know they went 28-8 on goals together? What different line matchups were you looking at on our team that compared well to that? Drai and RNH have never had success together like they’ve had with KY this year, not even when they played with Hall. Heck, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen each of them play as well as they did with KY.

    There’s a simple reason for that. It’s not our fresh new competent puck distributors. KY played like a straight out all-star,unbelievable getting the puck, playing with the puck, playing without the puck… making plays, plays, plays. Genuinely special, way, way outside the expected result from “many wingers”.

    I wish there was a YT highlight reel I could point you to. Maybe when hockey comes back. Only us crusty hard cores paying any attention right now.

    Leon and Nuge played over 300 minutes together over the last 3 seasons without Yamamoto and have a GF% of 45.95%.

    Leon and Nuge played 320 minutes together with Yamamoto and had a GF% of 77.78%.

    Sure, the xGF% was much closer and the trio greatly outshone their possession metrics but I think that is a function of the high danger chances they created as a trio.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477934&p2=8476454&p3=8479977&p4=0&p5=0

  89. godot10 says:

    defmn: I have been pushing the ‘United Democracies’ idea for 30 years.

    The idea that dictatorships and democracies have similar objectivesis dangerously delusional.

    Can you name any democracies? The End of History and the Last Man turned out to be completely wrong.

    Plutocratic neofeudalism is on the march everywhere.

  90. Munny says:

    I think this would be better than what we have, but not I’m sure it is what we need.

    W.r.t. HH’s comment, I don’t believe there is a nation on this earth that has a high degree of democracy and transparency. Relatively so, yes. On an absolute basis, not even close.

    I also would not want anything like the federalism of the European Union, which essentially looks like a smaller version of United Democracies. (The devil’s in the details I know and you’ve given none, so this isn’t a criticism of your ideas)

    I would be willing to get on board anything that takes us farther away from central planning (which is inherently undemocratic), rather than re-imagining it.

    But yes, end the UN. Please.

  91. Munny says:

    Can’t have political democracy unless you have economic democracy and that power of the people was lost decades ago.

  92. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: I like to believe that I have a life and that hockey is only a small part of that life.

    Please. Don’t be silly.

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Leon and Nuge played over 300 minutes together over the last 3 seasons without Yamamoto and have a GF% of 45.95%.

    Leon and Nuge played 320 minutes together with Yamamoto and had a GF% of 77.78%.

    Sure, the xGF% was much closer and the trio greatly outshone their possession metrics but I think that is a function of the high danger chances they created as a trio.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477934&p2=8476454&p3=8479977&p4=0&p5=0

    – To me that’s the fallacy in using numbers over different years to come to the conclusion that : see how good Kailer is compared to everyone else

    – Those stats are comparing apples to oranges. The minutes that Drai and RNH played together in the three previous years don’t resemble the ones they played with Kailer.

    – It’s the same as the conclusion that was made about Koski: he wasn’t a bad goalie, he just was playing on a bad team with bad and injured D. The trick is to look through the numbers IMO not rely on them as proof.

    – Anyway Kailer was injured at end of his run. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see his replacement on that line to test my thesis

  94. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Plutocratic neofeudalism is on the march everywhere.

    Yes but when the fiat fantasy finally crashes it’s going to be difficult to control certain populations grown somewhat temporarily docile, particularly once the bribe money evaporates lol

  95. defmn says:

    godot10: Can you name any democracies? The End of History and the Last Man turned out to be completely wrong.

    Plutocratic neofeudalism is on the march everywhere.

    I respectfully submit that you have misunderstood Fukuyama.

  96. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: I respectfully submit that you have misunderstood Fukiyama.

    What’s his position re without the cozy buffer of a democratic and prosperous USA lol

    ps: sorry Lowetide, merely furthering these maniac’s meatgrinder/discussion. Delete anytime : p

  97. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Can’t have political democracy unless you have economic democracy and that power of the people was lost decades ago.

    I’m more of a dictionary kind of guy. Words have a meaning. If you don’t like that meaning you need to come up with another word. 😉

    de•moc•ra•cy dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē►

    n.
    Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.

  98. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: Words have a meaning.

    Words: Are things.

    People who control words control everything. Which is why the decline of traditional media has been a particularly sad development.

  99. defmn says:

    hunter1909: What’s his position re without the cozy buffer of a democratic and prosperous USA lol

    ps: sorry Lowetide, merely furthering these maniac’s meatgrinder/discussion. Delete anytime : p

    And your misunderstanding seems to be waaaay out in left field. If you want to understand Fukuyama’s position go back and read Nietzsche’s objection to Hobbe’s.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    ps: Apologies for getting too far off hockey. I forget that everyone else is similarly locked down like I am. I hope everyone has enough of the basic necessities of life. It can be trying to be stuck inside which opens up all kinds…

    Watching YouTube clips of old Oilers is doing it for me at the moment, also postwar Russian war movies based on WW2 if you want to see astonishing non-CGI showing enough hardware to conquer Philadelphia those movies are where to go. Of particular interest are any movies made when Stalin was alive that have a character playing the Man of Steel.

  101. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: And your misunderstanding seems to be waaaay out in left field. If you want to understand Fukuyama’s position go back and read Nietzsche’s objection to Hobbe’s.

    Thank you for that enlightening opinion.

    Personally, I like to see things in the framework of Rome: plebs vs patricians. In the end it usually boils down to bread riots which really effect political change.

    I hope everyone reading this has access to basic necessities of life, some of which have become rare during the past few weeks.

  102. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Words: Are things.

    People who control words control everything. Which is why the decline of traditional media has been a particularly sad development.

    Words only control people who don’t know how to use dictionaries. 😉

  103. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Thank you for that enlightening opinion.

    Personally, I like to see things in the framework of Rome: plebs vs patricians. In the end it usually boils down to bread riots which really effect political change.

    I prefer Plato to Machiavelli to Bacon to Hobbes to Nietzsche.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: I prefer Plato to Machiavelli to Bacon to Hobbes to Nietzsche.

    If nothing else, you are fairly well read.

    I prefer George Orwell, Jack London, Daniel Defoe and Charles Dickens.

  105. wolf8888 says:

    its a bet!

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – To me that’s the fallacy in using numbers over different years to come to the conclusion that : see how good Kailer is compared to everyone else

    – Those stats are comparing apples to oranges. The minutes that Drai and RNH played together in the three previous years don’t resemble the ones they played with Kailer.

    – It’s the same as the conclusion that was made about Koski: he wasn’t a bad goalie, he just was playing on a bad team with bad and injured D.The trick is to look through the numbers IMO not rely on them as proof.

    – Anyway Kailer was injured at end of his run. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see his replacement on that line to test my thesis

    I guess is what you are saying is that your position is irrefutable.

    We can’t test it with “current” (or future”) data seeing Drai/Nuge with a separate winger and using the data we have of Nuge and Drai win a non-Kailer winger is, apparently, not relevant.

    I’m not sure why its not relevant, just because the team is different – its sets up with your criteria of what has made Kailer successful – a winger playing with Drai and Nuge with McDavid ahead of them on another line.

    To the extent McDavid was not taking tough match-ups on another line, well, he was probably the 3rd player with Nuge and Drai…..

    ———-

    To your point of good team vs bad team, well, I would posit that Yamamoto being added made the team much better.

    Recall the bad month of December – the team was bad, all over. Yamamoto gets called up and the team is better, much better.

    I can’t prove cause and effect but there seems to be a correlation between Drai/Nuge having success and the team having success and Kailer Yamamoto.

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    Cynism is the last thing needed now.

    There is an opportunity to change the world.

    Imagine a brighter future or STFU.

  108. wolf8888 says:

    Correct. Most of our current “democracies” are run by mega business and banks. I don’t actually see democracy in action

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    We’ve had some talk about having a d-man that meets the requirements for exposure in the expansion draft – even signing a soon to be 35 year old Mike Green for multiple years or hoping the current #8/9D (potentially #7 on opening night) Lagesson plays 40 games this year.

    How about keeping it simple and signing the good soldier and battler Matty Benning to 2 X $2.2M?

  110. Georges says:

    Man… is that what my voice really sounds like?

    Do I say stuff like that?

    I’d like to think I’d check myself before I wreck myself. Oh well, it’s out there.

    Also… “I bet that guy does pretty well if he gets 20 games” is equivalent to “I bet that guy gets 20 games if he does pretty well”… so I guess you’ve got this.

    I want to talk about your PDO comment too, people like to reach for that when it’s convenient to their thinking, but I don’t like this cramped little reply window.

    Maybe later.

  111. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Cynism is the last thing needed now.

    Considering you’re the biggest troll…lol

  112. Georges says:

    Yeah, Kinger thinks that once you combine Drai and RNH, you have Secret Ingredient Soup. No, no. That soup has no flavor. The secret ingredient to the Secret Ingredient Soup is Yams.

  113. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We’ve had some talk about having a d-man that meets the requirements for exposure in the expansion draft – even signing a soon to be 35 year old Mike Green for multiple years or hoping the current #8/9D (potentially #7 on opening night) Lagesson plays 40 games this year.

    How about keeping it simple and signing the good soldier and battler Matty Benning to 2 X $2.2M?

    Why is it that NHL history is rife with older former great defencemen who provide mentorship plus the rest to a young defence like what Holland is working with, and Lowetide groupthink states that any defenceman over 30 is halfway to the knackers yard?

  114. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: How about keeping it simple and signing the good soldier and battler Matty Benning to 2 X $2.2M?

    LOL also: What’s with the Lowetide obsession with “good soldier and battler” players who by definition are fringe at best, unlike Green who is a former star who commands respect?

  115. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – To me that’s the fallacy in using numbers over different years to come to the conclusion that : see how good Kailer is compared to everyone else

    – Those stats are comparing apples to oranges. The minutes that Drai and RNH played together in the three previous years don’t resemble the ones they played with Kailer.

    – It’s the same as the conclusion that was made about Koski: he wasn’t a bad goalie, he just was playing on a bad team with bad and injured D.The trick is to look through the numbers IMO not rely on them as proof.

    – Anyway Kailer was injured at end of his run. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see his replacement on that line to test my thesis

    “The minutes that Drai and RNH played together in the three previous years don’t resemble the ones they played with Kailer.”

    Exactly!

    “It’s the same as the conclusion that was made about Koski: he wasn’t a bad goalie, he just was playing on a bad team with bad and injured D.The trick is to look through the numbers IMO not rely on them as proof.”

    Sometimes numbers are useful (oh, look at his PDO of 1080), sometimes they’re not (OP’s take, apparently).

    And you said this in an earlier post:

    “– Without those linemates and being a 2nd line on a good team with good D Kailer doesn’t have the impact that Drai recognizes.”

    You may not realize this, but KY was playing on a terrible, non-playoff 5v5 team, a team that was -16 on goals in that discipline. Not a good team with good D. A weak ass team with weak ass D.

    Without KY, Drai went -10. That’s playing with CMD in front of that good D and good Koski (I know, bad Smith!) Without KY, RNH went -7.

    With KY, RNH and Drai went +20! If those guys never came together and the second line with Drai, RNH, and spare part broke even (which would have been overachieving given history), the team would have been -36 at 5v5. That’s NJD and SJS territory. No amount of special teams would have been special enough to dig us out of that hole.

    The team so obviously changed for the massive better when KY got here. Drai and RNH were spectacular with him in a way they’ve never been without him. Give the kid his due. It’s easy if you ignore the games and watch the numbers. It’s even easier if you ignore the numbers and watch the games.

    When players actually do something special, it’s important to notice.

    You know who does that: Tippett.

  116. Georges says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Cynism is the last thing needed now.

    There is an opportunity to change the world.

    Imagine a brighter future or STFU.

    Light and dark all at once. Also possible: Imagine a brighter future and STFU.

  117. godot10 says:

    defmn: I’m more of a dictionary kind of guy. Words have a meaning. If you don’t like that meaning you need to come up with another word.😉

    de•moc•ra•cy dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē►

    n. Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.

    All democracies have descended into kabuki theatre. Our countries and nations, hollowed out potemkin villages.

    It is an eminence front.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx6Zgz0TZuA

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Why is it that NHL history is rife with older former great defencemen who provide mentorship plus the rest to a young defence like what Holland is working with, and Lowetide groupthink states that any defenceman over 30 is halfway to the knackers yard?

    Mike Green is turning 35 and regressing – he was never great defensively and with Klef, Bear, Jones and, soon, Bouchard, I don’t see the need for his skillset.

    Not a player I want to sign to multiple years.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: LOL also: What’s with the Lowetide obsession with “good soldier and battler” players who by definition are fringe at best, unlike Green who is a former star who commands respect?

    Matt Benning isn’t “fringe” – he’s a legit upper end 3rd pairing d-man.

    The key word with Green is “former” – he’s not a current start. He’s a soon to be 35 year old regressing d-man. I’d actually prefer Benning’s skill set on the 3rd pairing. He’s got great numbers with RUssell (and, well, with everyone) and will be quite happy for a Jones/Benning 3rd pairing.

  120. defmn says:

    godot10: All democracies have descended into kabuki theatre.Our countries and nations, hollowed out potemkin villages.

    It is an eminence front.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx6Zgz0TZuA

    OK.

  121. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Cynism is the last thing needed now.

    There is an opportunity to change the world.

    Imagine a brighter future or STFU.

    Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.

    What is crooked cannot be straightened;
    what is lacking cannot be counted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOKu1Ftvs-U

  122. defmn says:

    godot10: Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.

    What is crooked cannot be straightened; what is lacking cannot be counted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOKu1Ftvs-U

    We are not a particularly attractive species without doubt.

    I just don’t think this is the place to have the length of discussion that such an important question merits.

    The observation that democracy is the most fragile of the possible regimes and that all regimes are subject to corruption is just a start to a discussion that has a 2,500 year chronology and history.

    I apologize for my earlier flippant responses. I shouldn’t have done that.

  123. jp says:

    hunter1909: LOL also: What’s with the Lowetide obsession with “good soldier and battler” players who by definition are fringe at best, unlike Green who is a former star who commands respect?

    Sigh.

    Tippett agrees with you so I’ve stopped arguing about Benning.

    But the “obsession” with this “fringe” player comes from stuff like the +/- leader board for Oiler regulars over the past 3 seasons.

    Benning +24
    McDavid +17
    Nurse +8
    ————–
    A bunch of guys who’ve gotten outscored.

  124. defmn says:

    jp: Sigh.

    Tippett agrees with you so I’ve stopped arguing about Benning.

    But the “obsession” with this “fringe” player comes from stuff like the +/- leader board for Oiler regulars over the past 3 seasons.

    Benning +24
    McDavid +17
    Nurse +8
    ————–
    A bunch of guys who’ve gotten outscored.

    Definitely a ‘math and eye test don’t mesh’ story. I don’t know which version comes closest but I do know that the coaching staff gets the last say and that isn’t working in Benning’s favour.

  125. hunter1909 says:

    jp: Sigh.

    Tippett agrees with you so I’ve stopped arguing about Benning.

    But the “obsession” with this “fringe” player comes from stuff like the +/- leader board for Oiler regulars over the past 3 seasons.

    Benning +24
    McDavid +17
    Nurse +8
    ————–
    A bunch of guys who’ve gotten outscored.

    Thank you for taking the time to explain that Benning is in fact a positive contributor. Hopefully they keep him.

  126. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: I don’t remember ever seeing any player come up from the AHL and do what Yamamoto did for his 20 or so games.

    He was starting to look tired, so maybe the lockdown is a good thing for him.

    Also, Yamamoto is going to play on a skill line, so that’s 97 or 29 at this point. I think we’ll see him with McDavid next season at some point. Skill plays well with skill. Yamamoto has a lot of natural talent. I wish the Oilers had a bunch of skill wingers with his natural talent who are close to NHL ready.

  127. Georges says:

    jp: Sigh.

    Tippett agrees with you so I’ve stopped arguing about Benning.

    But the “obsession” with this “fringe” player comes from stuff like the +/- leader board for Oiler regulars over the past 3 seasons.

    Benning +24
    McDavid +17
    Nurse +8
    ————–
    A bunch of guys who’ve gotten outscored.

    +/-? 5v5 numbers over the same period tell a similar story, except Nurse falls below that line. The only D that show up on the plus side besides Benning are Auvitu, Gryba, and Garrison. Not sure what to think there.

    I watch him play. It’s tricky. He’s a gamer, physical even after taking a lot of punishment in his young career. Not fast. Not great with his stick. Can’t say whether he anticipates the play or, in fact, makes a lot of defensive plays. His transition game doesn’t register. That could be me. Seems to take more chances than typical for our group in the offensive zone. And he does seem to get his shot through and on target a bit better.

    What do you think Benning does well? How does he personally contribute to on-ice success? Is it that his coaches play him against the weakest opponents? That’s it?

  128. jp says:

    defmn,

    hunter1909: Thank you for taking the time to explain that Benning is in fact a positive contributor. Hopefully they keep him.

    He’s definitely a positive contributor but I think everyone knows he’s not as good as that +/- says. I’m totally fine with moving him.

    I’m actually looking forward to seeing a Bear-Larsson-Green-Bouchard depth chart if Holland can swing the money. I think Green has some left in the tank with upside that Benning doesn’t.

  129. Lowetide says:

    Georges: +/-? 5v5 numbers over the same period tell a similar story, except Nurse falls below that line. The only D that show up on the plus side besides Benning are Auvitu, Gryba, and Garrison. Not sure what to think there.

    I watch him play. It’s tricky. He’s a gamer, physical even after taking a lot of punishment in his young career. Not fast. Not great with his stick. Can’t say whether he anticipates the play or, in fact, makes a lot of defensive plays. His transition game doesn’t register. That could be me. Seems to take more chances than typical for our group in the offensive zone. And he does seem to get his shot through and on target a bit better.

    What do you think Benning does well? How does he personally contribute to on-ice success? Is it that his coaches play him against the weakest opponents? That’s it?

    Third pairing guys aren’t playing tough opponents so their qual comp is often easier. Against elites this year, via Puck IQ, Nurse played 482 minutes, had a positive Rel (possession compared to other blue) and outscored elites 25-18.

    Benning played 124 minutes, was slightly in the red Rel, and outscored opposition 6-4.

    Both are good NHL defensemen. Different roles, making their numbers impossible to compare. Should mention Nurse playing with McDavid far more, which further complicates the comparison.

  130. Georges says:

    godot10: Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.

    What is crooked cannot be straightened; what is lacking cannot be counted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOKu1Ftvs-U

    Poetry/philosophy that convinces you of the awfulness of humanity will later convince you of its awesomeness. The poet/philosopher wants more. Wanting endures.

    It’s a small town Saturday night.

  131. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Third pairing guys aren’t playing tough opponents so their qual comp is often easier. Against elites this year, via Puck IQ, Nurse played 482 minutes, had a positive Rel (possession compared to other blue) and outscored elites 25-18.

    Benning played 124 minutes, was slightly in the red Rel, and outscored opposition 6-4.

    Both are good NHL defensemen. Different roles, making their numbers impossible to compare. Should mention Nurse playing with McDavid far more, which further complicates the comparison.

    Nurse outscored elites 25-18. Overall, Nurse was 64-71.

    That means non-elites outscored Nurse 53-39.

    That causes me a pang of disappointment. What am I to make of it? What’s Puck IQ telling me about Nurse?

  132. jp says:

    Georges: +/-? 5v5 numbers over the same period tell a similar story, except Nurse falls below that line. The only D that show up on the plus side besides Benning are Auvitu, Gryba, and Garrison. Not sure what to think there.

    I watch him play. It’s tricky. He’s a gamer, physical even after taking a lot of punishment in his young career. Not fast. Not great with his stick. Can’t say whether he anticipates the play or, in fact, makes a lot of defensive plays. His transition game doesn’t register. That could be me. Seems to take more chances than typical for our group in the offensive zone. And he does seem to get his shot through and on target a bit better.

    What do you think Benning does well? How does he personally contribute to on-ice success? Is it that his coaches play him against the weakest opponents? That’s it?

    You listed the bottom pairing guys who were positive, but Jones, Sekera, Gravel, Davidson, Manning, Persson and Petrovic were all negatives. Facing the weakest opponents is definitely helping Benning but I don’t think it’s the whole story.

    I think he does everything a little well. Not fast but not slow. Not great with his stick but not bad. He doesn’t wow his passing but he’s quite decent. He’s active and he isn’t clueless in the o-zone. As you say he’s a gamer.

  133. Munny says:

    defmn: I’m more of a dictionary kind of guy. Words have a meaning. If you don’t like that meaning you need to come up with another word.😉

    de•moc•ra•cy dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē►

    n. Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.

    It’s strictest meaning is “rule by the people”. If The People don’t have the rule in the economic world, it matters little what is offered to The People politically, unless it is to redress that particular wrong.

    Some day I will make the term “economic democracy” famous lol.

  134. defmn says:

    Munny: It’s strictest meaning is “rule by the people”.If The People don’t have the rule in the economic world, it matters little what is offered to The People politically, unless it is to redress that particular wrong.

    Some day I will make the term “economic democracy” famous lol.

    Actually it is a composite of “district” (see demotic), + kratos “rule, strength” (see -cracy). Athens districts were called demos.

    Atistotle has a great line about how both democrats and oligarchs are mistaken concerning their claims to rule because they both base them upon a single attribute rather than the whole of what makes us human.

    Democrats claim democracy is just because men, being free by nature, all have an equal claim to govern.

    Oligarchs claim that oligarchy is just because the rich and the poor are unequal because the former pay the bills that support the latter.

    Aristotle, following Plato’s lead, argues that the natural divisions between the diversity that constitutes humanity are to be found in the objects and strengths of our desires with those concerned with material goods occupying the lower strata of that hierarchical ranking.

    Marx, many centuries later, fails the test as a philosopher because he fails to account for those whose strongest desires transcend the material. 😉

  135. Lowetide says:

    Georges: Nurse outscored elites 25-18. Overall, Nurse was 64-71.

    That means non-elites outscored Nurse 53-39.

    That causes me a pang of disappointment. What am I to make of it? What’s Puck IQ telling me about Nurse?

    Nurse, Bear, Klefbom and Larsson were poor against mid-level and the soft parade. McDavid was 13-21 against mid-level competition. That should never happen, but it did.

    It was not an anomaly, Oilers haven’t hammered the soft and mid-level opposition like the should for a couple of years now.

    My guess is that the third and fourth line are getting outscored heavily, and that stumble by Leon’s line in December also contributed.

    Benning has been excellent at outscoring since he arrived in the NHL, every season. A lot of it has come against the mid and lower levels. I think that has value.

    I don’t think we can compare him to Nurse, Bear, Klefbom, Larsson because the four defenseman play so much in the most difficult game state.

  136. JimmyV1965 says:

    wolf8888:
    Correct. Most of our current “democracies” are run by mega business and banks. I don’t actually see democracy in action

    I bet Suncor, Husky, CNLR and the other big corps in the western Canadian oil patch have different thoughts on this notion.

  137. Jaxon says:

    I’ve mentioned this before, but it has always seemed a bit odd to me that Benson has never seen much time as a C. The reports of his leadership, his defensive responsibility, a team player, with grit, exceptional hockey IQ, and great passing ability all strike me as ideal qualities for playing C. Has anyone ever heard an explanation as to why he has been slotted as a winger for seemingly his whole young career? Maybe he’s the 3C solution some day. If Jesse comes back and Lavoie arrives in 21-22, that might be a pretty solid top 9. They talk a lot about his IQ, leadership and setup prowess. You’d think he’d be smart enough to make the transition.
    Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
    Athanasiou / McDavid / Lavoie
    Puljujarvi / Benson / Kassian

  138. buck yoakam says:

    calvin and hobbes?

  139. who says:

    jp:
    defmn,

    He’s definitely a positive contributor but I think everyone knows he’s not as good as that +/- says. I’m totally fine with moving him.

    I’m actually looking forward to seeing a Bear-Larsson-Green-Bouchard depth chart if Holland can swing the money. I think Green has some left in the tank with upside that Benning doesn’t.

    That would be the strongest right side defense the Oilers could make with the current pieces.
    But both Benning and Russell would have to get traded, with no salary retained, to make it fit under the cap.

  140. who says:

    jp: You listed the bottom pairing guys who were positive, but Jones, Sekera, Gravel, Davidson, Manning, Persson and Petrovic were all negatives. Facing the weakest opponents is definitely helping Benning but I don’t think it’s the whole story.

    I think he does everything a little well. Not fast but not slow. Not great with his stick but not bad. He doesn’t wow his passing but he’s quite decent. He’s active and he isn’t clueless in the o-zone. As you say he’s a gamer.

    I think you describe Benning pretty well here.
    The only thing I would differ on is his speed. He is a slow, awkward skater. This seems to show up mostly on puck retrievals. I think it also hurts him in 1 on 1 puck battles. He seems to lose his balance when engaging other players.
    I know he throws the occassional open ice big hit, but he also spends a lot of time on his ass in the dzone.

  141. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Good stuff on Kailer: its interesting to hear the other takes

    – An argument makes an impact, when others mock, or misrepresent a point of view that is different than what the consesnus holds.

    – In summary, I attribute much more of his amazing performance to the position he is in, and far less to simply Kailer’s presence. Consensus seems to be:” Kailer was sick, he made that line”

    – Only when Kailer is not playing on that 2nd line, might we be able to see his “impact”, controlling for the other factors. I think it was a circumstance that he ran with, and props more to team.

    – He’s been awesome, that line was revelation. Turned the team around. That’s how hockey narratives work. 108 PDO’s and 25% sh% don’t last. We will see. I hope he has a long career as a winger on a skilled line.

  142. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Good stuff on Kailer: its interesting to hear the other takes

    – An argument makes an impact, when others mock, or misrepresent a point of view that is different than what the consesnus holds.

    – In summary, I attribute much more of his amazing performance to the position he is in, and far less to simply Kailer’s presence.Consensus seems to be:” Kailer was sick, he made that line”

    – Only when Kailer is not playing on that 2nd line, might we be able to see his “impact”, controlling for the other factors.I think it was a circumstance that he ran with, and props more to team.

    – He’s been awesome, that line was revelation.Turned the team around.That’s how hockey narratives work.108 PDO’s and 25% sh% don’t last.We will see.I hope he has a long career as a winger on a skilled line.

    Yamamoto is likely to move from the Draisaitl line to the McDavid line. Not sure we can argue he’ll be more responsible for that line’s success if it works out well.

  143. wolf8888 says:

    Unfortunately for western Canada you are referencing a fading industry that hasn’t adapted and is experiencing a difficult period. In the democracy of Canada about a decade ago Shell oil paid less taxes that the gut pumping gas at a Shell gas station. That is one small example of “not economic Democracy”

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Good stuff on Kailer: its interesting to hear the other takes

    – An argument makes an impact, when others mock, or misrepresent a point of view that is different than what the consesnus holds.

    – In summary, I attribute much more of his amazing performance to the position he is in, and far less to simply Kailer’s presence.Consensus seems to be:” Kailer was sick, he made that line”

    – Only when Kailer is not playing on that 2nd line, might we be able to see his “impact”, controlling for the other factors.I think it was a circumstance that he ran with, and props more to team.

    – He’s been awesome, that line was revelation.Turned the team around.That’s how hockey narratives work.108 PDO’s and 25% sh% don’t last.We will see.I hope he has a long career as a winger on a skilled line.

    We don’t have meaningful data to control for Kailer on a non-Drai/Nuge line.

    We do have meaningful data to compare Drai/Nuge w/o Kailer vs. Drai/Nuge with Kailer and the data is quite stunning.

    WIth that said, you discount that data completely and I really struggle to understand why or how given the argument is that any player put in that position (with Drai/Nuge and with McDavid on another line) would succeed – the data seems to show otherwise.

  145. defmn says:

    Democracy is something totally separate from who pays taxes but just as a btw Shell – and every other large corporation – pays a huge amount in taxes.

    They are collected by the government under the heading of ‘personal income tax’ but as the old maxim goes ‘follow the money’ and you will see that it is the employer who pays the tax. The rest of it is just a shell game with words for political purposes.

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