The Edmonton Oilers 2019-20 deployed a 43-goal scorer (Leon Draisaitl), a 34-goal man (Connor McDavid) and a 22-goal winger (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins).
James Neal (19 goals), Zack Kassian (15 goals), Josh Archibald (12 goals), Alex Chiasson (11 goals) and Kailer Yamamoto (11 goals) gave the team eight forwards who scored in double digits.
If Edmonton is to win a Stanley Cup, the team will need more 20-goal men, along with the kind of depth scoring managed in 2019-20. How many can we reasonably project from the current roster to score? Where is the procurement focus going this summer?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers forward Colby Cave dies at age 25
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘The world needs more Colbys’: Teammates and coaches mourn Colby Cave
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’re all just praying’: Hockey community rallies around Colby Cave
- New Murat Ates: My favourite player: Ryan Smyth
- New Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
- New Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: My favourite player: Donovan Bailey
- Jonathan Willis: For one glorious fall, Alexander Selivanov was the NHL’s most dangerous scorer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hockey’s not that important right now’: Oilers minor-leaguer Colby Cave in coma
- Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors forward prospects might need a history lesson
- Lowetide: Craig MacTavish’s most important Oilers moment? Picking Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
TOP 20 NHLE’S
Someone asked the other day about publishing NHL equivalencies with my rankings, I will for the April edition but thought I might pass them along in three chapters this week. I can also explain a little about my rankings.
The hardest part of the rankings is Europeans. Holtz, Raymond and Gunler play in the SHL but in a feature role at evens or on the power play. Same with Lundell in the Liiga. Finding the right spot for those men is difficult.
Also, I have nicked Jarvis. He’ll land in the top 15 on my final list (in his last 10 games he posted 10-12-22) and is a late breaker. He’s been moving up steadily (No. 19 from No. 24 on my last list). However, Jarvis (and Perreault from the Q) have the numbers but not the scouting verbal. There’s a lag. Still figuring out the Euros and Jarvis among the top 20. We’ll do 21-40 tomorrow.
OILERS 2020-21 GOALIE DEPTH CHART
Heading into summer, the most likely scenario has Ken Holland signing Mike Smith to another one-year deal. It’s uncertain what will happen with Shane Starrett, there’s a full boat of goaltenders in the AHL and Konovalov is potentially a year away. Maybe we see a veteran AHL goalie added and one of the prospects traded.
OILERS 2020-21 DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART
I set it up this way because there are some trains of thought that need to be reset in the comments section. There are NINE players vying or seven NHL spots and I don’t think you can count on William Lagesson clearing waivers.
If you send Lagesson down, and are depending on him for AHL play, then losing him to waivers could send the minor league team sideways. NHL teams are always looking for bona fide defensemen, especially inexpensive ones who can play.
If you can’t count on Lagesson clearing waivers, you must either make room for him or deal him. I think Russell and Benning are most likely to be dealt and do believe Bouchard will make the team in the fall. Something like Nurse-Bear, Klefbom-Larsson, Jones-Bouchard and Lagesson. That’s a lot of youth, but it’s also some impressive value deals who can actually play.
Bakersfield will need some help. Samorukov is the only certainty to be on the opening night roster for the Condors.
OILERS 2020-21 CENTER DEPTH CHART
This position will need addressing in a big way, suspect Riley Sheahan gets signed for sure. After that, if Holland can find a No. 3 center my guess is Khaira will either come to camp on the roster bubble or will be dealt over summer. Erik Haula is the popular choice but every team needing a solution will be knocking on his agent’s door, so he’ll be expensive.
The AHL team boast two centers, Josh Currie and Brad Malone may get NHL deals but Holland may prefer to sign AHL contracts with minor league veterans.
OILERS 2020-21 WINGER DEPTH CHART
As upside down as it looks now, this is a better situation than a year ago. Yamamoto’s emergence was a major positive and Neal was more productive than Lucic. It’s also easier to buy out the Neal contract. I think we’ll see some movement, possibly Chiasson dealt. Benson will push but Nygard might delay the start of his career. That speed is attractive.
I think several RFA’s listed here won’t return but decided to keep them all on to make sure we’re not overlooking anyone. Lavoie is going to be the big prospect in Bakersfield this fall.
One thing we could discuss today: The big move of summer 2020 being Andreas Athanasiou’s acquisition. The big man has a 30-goal season, brings speed and size and won’t cost the moon. I think he might be the winger for 97’s line opening night.
I posted my opinion on what he is going to request as a pending UFA.
The response received told me, as a fact, that his value was half his current value and asked me why I think he gets more than market.
I responded and asked how that poster is so certain on the market.
I’ve been very clear that its my thought and speculation on what Green will require to sign. I’m not posting it as fact, based on any information or as a certainty.
The rights to many games are still held by CBC and I heard on the radio that CBC scrubbed many of their archives as a cost saving measure.
You literally just asked a poster how he could be so certain Green would sign for 2.5 million.
Soooooo…… what makes you so certain that he won’t sign for less than 3 million?
Amen to this.
Do they not have thousands of games on file?
I’m sure they’ve run the same games a dozen times so far. What the hell?
I don’t expect we’ll see him playing much 3C for the Oilers, but I’d give him a little more credit for that stretch than you are.
He scored well. His fancies were barely worse than the teams. He was 47% on faceoffs. He played ~1/3 of his minutes with Glendening and Helm (mostly not together btw). It wasn’t all bad.
But yeah, he hasn’t played C regularly in the NHL and he doesn’t seem like a great fit for that role on the next year Oilers. I don’t think he’s Holland’s solution for that spot.
Harpers Hair,
Of course they are. They keep playing the same 7-8 games over and over
Here’s a tip … show a classic series that a city fell in love with
In Calgary show the entire 2004 playoff run
In Edmonton show the entire 2006 playoff run
In Vancouver snow the entire 2011 playoff run
I know when they showed game five against San Jose from 2017 many here including me watched it. Why did they stop with one game?
Do they think there are any oilers fans who want to watch fleury score in game six 1991 even once, let alone 3 times a week? Do they not have a catalogue of thousands of games they could pick for nhl rewind or nhl classics? Even the Dallas oilers game 7 has gotten old after watching it twice.
Whoever is running that “ classics” department needs to be replaced. It could be so good and is so …
not
Nope, as I’ve said many times, its speculation but its what I feel he will be looking for.
Chiasson has size but his skating limits his ability to “hit back” I would say – he is 9th among Oilers forwards in Hits/60 this past season (i do acknowledge that tracking hits is quite subjective and varys per arena – however, the entire team is getting tracked by the same people on any particular night).
Recall, Chiasson was healthy scratched for the last two rounds when WSH won the cup.
Thanks for that.
Seems he has played for short stretches here or there.
The numbers, with the best linemates on the team, are underwhelming at best and his faceoff percentage is near young Nuge levels…..
May I ask how you are so certain you know his current market value?
I think he could come in higher than that and with a couple years of term – term is egregious for a depth d-man approaching 35.
The expansion draft rules require every team expose a D man that has played 40 games the previous year or 70 games the previous 2 years and has an NHL contract thru the 21/22 season
Nurse Klefbom Bear will meet this criteria but will be protected by the Oilers
Jones will meet the games played criteria, but I think he’ll be protected as well unless Kenny has bigger plans ie: trade
Lagesson may meet the games played criteria, we’ll see
Larsson and KRusty will not have contracts – maybe they extend Larsson and then expose him in the draft, we’ll see
And that brings us to Benning, or his replacement
I’m not a big fan of giving Green more than a 1 year deal but maybe they do for this very reason
He’s Merle Haggard!
Bogdan Blafferty is so old he already served a life sentence in prison followed by a life sentence in the Ahl
But that is what you have based all of your objections to signing him on and I have seen no indication anywhere that that is what is being considered. Have you seen somebody in the media or with the club suggest that is being contemplated?
Vancouver 2011 is the best example of this.
I think I have only mentioned about 27 times that I expect Neal to be gone so there is no duplication. Chiasson may have ‘poor skating’ in terms of the quick fast guys. As I pointed out I happen to prefer balance. Big and strong help win cups too. The playoffs are littered with teams that lost in the first round because when the hitting got serious there was nobody to hit back.
Not sure what issue you’re asking about.
He’s filled in at C sporadically throughout his career (FO by year – 129, 83, 255, 399, 103). He’s not great at it – 42.4% in just shy of 1000 faceoffs in his Detroit career.
The only real stretch I found where he played C was after the trade deadline in 2018-19 (starting Feb 26th, 2019). Seemed to stay at C through the end of the season (19 games).
Those 19 games:
2nd on the Wings with 236 FO, 47.0%.
19-8-7-15 boxcars. -2 and 18:56 per game TOI.
His main line mates in 297 5v5 minutes were:
Mantha (198 min)
Bertuzzi (145 min)
Glendenning (98 min)
Helm (60 min)
Mantha, AA and Bertuzzi were 1, 2, 3 in scoring.
The Wings managed to go 9-9-1 in those games, so fake .500.
The fancies were less kind. At 5v5 the team was:
43.3% CF, 41.0% SF, 37.0% GF.
Athanasiou himself went:
41.1% CF, 37.4% SF, 45.0% GF.
FWIW.
OriginalPouzar,
Green’s current market value is 0.5x of his current AAV.
Why would you posit that he’s going to sign for a pay raise on his present value?
He’s on the wrong side of the aging curve. There is relative team depth. He has a significant working relationship with the GM and an operational familiarity with the organization already in place.
I’d post his contract at a max of $2.5M x 1 or 2 year term, with no trade protection.
Fair enough.
A couple of points:
1) Goal scoring wasn’t an issue but goal scoring at 5 on 5 was. I don’t think a historic PP can be counted on year in and year out.
2) The team could win “now” (ish) – the time is now but I don’t agree that its just now – I agree with what Holland is trying to do which is build a team with “multiple chances” at the cup, that is, a team that will be in the playoffs year after year after year. In order for that to be build, drafting and development must be a focussed on as well as the the current team. Young players on value contracts are essential – they need to replace aging and high priced veterans. Sometimes a Benning or a Russell do need to be replaced with draft picks (in the case of Rusty, its cap savings move for current building as well).
Harpers Hair,
If you could just go ahead and provide some background or context on that… yeah, that’d be greaaaat.
I’m not surprised. I don’t think I’ve watched more than hour of the two networks put together in the entire month this has been going on.
Bob McCown
@FadooBobcat
·
9h
With almost everyone housebound, you would think that t.v. ratings would be pretty good. Well, not for TSN and Sportsnet. Their numbers are down about 75% so far this month!
Don’t fret.
I would imagine many, many players who are near their end of their careers and who have millions in the bank will decide their hockey careers are over.
They will be driven by the imperative that the risk is just not worth it.
I know I would,
Just watched the ESPN film story on Magic Johnson quite fitting for today. HIV virus was a death sentence in 1991 when he announced. he prospers today. We have hope, this too will pass.
I wouldn’t have organized the pairs as Godot did, but I think those will be the Oilers 6 main D to start the year.
I think Holland sees Green as a 2D candidate, but at the same time I’d be very surprised to see the job handed to him.
If RD is Bear-Larsson-Green (Bouchard) that’s quality depth. If Larsson struggles Green is there as cover. If he outplays Larsson (or Bear) he plays more. Nothing wrong with that IMO.
My guess has been Holland gives Green $2.5M X 2, which will be regarded as an overpay by many (this would also require most or all of Neal, Russell and Benning removed from the Oilers roster, so it’s no guarantee). I think Green has a good chance to cover that bet but I can also see the risks that others see.
If Larsson is traded and Green is the 2RD entering camp I’ll be with you thinking that’s very risky situation.
1.27 P/60 is a 3rd line rate. And 2 of those years were pre-Oilers.
From LT’s recent athletic article, Chiasson was 53.6 GF% without McDavid this season.
Maybe he sees the PB at points, but I don’t think he’s an issue at all. You play him on which ever bottom 6 line Archibald isn’t on IMO.
Not if the cap is lower in due to lower revenues.
I don’t see the cap going down mind you, however, at the same time, the majority of the league sill have the upper cap limit as their issue in building – there simply aren’t that many teams that can fit in $4M on their cap and are looking for lower outlay contracts. Throw in his NTC taking away half the league…..
Awesome post Klinger.
GODOT: Antibody tests are not “100 % enough” (the two critical pieces known as specificity and sensitivity won’t allow for what you are saying).
I did not say antibody testing is enough. Rapid PCR testing with results in under an hour, and daily testing is required.
This is dependant on what Green will sign for and I have a feeling that he’ll be looking for around $3M AAV and more than 1 year – could be totally off on that.
I can’t get on board with Green getting 18-22 even strength minutes per.
Chiasson is probably value for the money at the end of the day but the issue is where does he fit in the lineup?
You say the money is value for a 3rd liner but he isn’t really a 3rd liner – he’s replacement level at evens and a PP specialist. His P/60 was below 0.9 this season but the previous three seasons were 1.28, 1.27 1.27.
Lets not forget, he did get material minutes with each of McDavid and Drai, in particular last season.
Its tough to find room in the bottom six for a poor skating, meh defensive player that doesn’t PK.
One of him or Neal on the 23 can be dealt with but we have two players with similar placement issues.
Yeah, I know that is your concern. If that is what he wants I let him go see if he can get it elsewhere. Both of us are guessing but I think we have the top and bottom surrounded.
– Interesting. Too bad they didn’t listen. There are some tremendous sports writers: those who weave sport into life, politics, beauty, framing things in the context of time. Providing perspective. Given humanity (the good bad and ugly of athletes). Story tellers. I’m thinking about King, or Ryan, or Brunt, Fisher, Wallace (his Fed article is master-class), DeFord, Reilly, Shipnuk, Hewitt, Jenkins (father and daughter), Wind, and a bunch more, heck Mailer had great sports stuff as did Hemmingway, The best sports writers blend life into their prose, to create an identity, not just report the scores and results. They weave narratives. LT at his best is able to do this.
– There are some great opportunities in this environment for sports writers to so much more IMO.
– But if your just product driven, and event reporting, this is exposing you big-time. There was a great quote I read about Sports Writers being the best training ground for writing
– Anyway, just my two cents.
Thanks for the leads.
Agree that sports can tell us so much about the human condition but the opportunity is wasted so often.
Tomorrow we can discuss how Brogan Rafferty’s development was stunted because he shared the same name with a serial killer.
Stay tuned. ?
I just noticed the serial killer thing today. Ha! There can’t be a long list of Brogan Rafferty’s out there.
One is a serial killer…and the other is a stone cold killer. 🙂
SMH 🙂
I thought we acquired him as that 6/7 guy but useage (albeit two games) showed otherwise.
I have all the time in the world for Green to be that guy – unfortuantely, I think his contract demands will preclude a signing for that role.
Of course, I’m just speculating that he’ll be looking for something around $3M and maybe even a couple of years. I fear Holland will offer that type of contract believing Green can handle 2RD for stretches.
Until 18yo?? Well that’s junior high school for him
I have little doubt this is the case and I fear it will be closer to $3M per.
I initially thought the acquisition was solely veteran depth for the playoff run but Tip/Playfair showed us right away that the player was acquired to play and he played 2nd pairing minutes in his 2nd game.
My fear is a re-signing with a view to being able to handle top 4 minutes.
Sure, if they want him to replace Benning and he comes in close to $2M, sure, I’m OK with that but, if they want him to play top 4 (even in a potential Larsson trade) and he comes in closer to $3M, I will not be on board to start.
I could very well see Benning sign a deal with the Oilers that is reasonable for the team – not much higher than his $2M. I could see him signing for 3 years, $6.75M.
I believe that Edmonton-born Matt Benning really likes being an Oiler and has loyalty to the Oiler for signing him to his ELC and giving him his shot and for how they treated him through his injury issues.
I am curious to find out if his deployment in 2020 was b/c Tippett/Playfair don’t trust him/like his game or a function of keeping his minutes down given the tough head year he was having.
Benning was very good this year pre-injury and plays the game bigger than he is – I don’t see how Playfair/Tippett don’t like him.
In regard to leagues who can’t play, CFL may have a major issue. I’m sure more articles will follow and possible impact on the other leagues as we prepare for their seasons, that kind of article would likely come from the likes of Rick Westhead, etc.
https://3downnation.com/2020/04/06/all-cfl-players-could-become-free-agents-if-season-suspended/
This was an issue decades ago.
I told sports reporters who worked for me that they would need to be journalists, not just purveyors of hi lights and cliches.
They resisted massively and the Oilers, in particular, went on the warpath.
You reap what you sow.
Munny,
– Yeah I don’t get the whole refusal to discuss these things. I mean I get it: sports business all relies on games, and talking about the negatives, probably doesn’t help talk up ones book
– But it’s astonishing to me, as a finance guy, that these risks are rarely talked about, not even really mentioned. As if this down-time is merely a small inconvenience, and it’s going to be all good ASAP
– In-depth articles exploring these issues would have far more impact IMO. But sports writers aren’t equipped to have this kind of insight as a whole. It’s been interesting to see most of the media exposed as simply reciting last nights sporting games: they have nuthin’
– how bout that list of the best wingers from Manitoba from the 1980’s, or NBA players playing HORSE…
Well there’s a couple of things going on there.
Firstly MSM hockey writers don’t typically have the training/knowledge to report on complex economic issues. I don’t blame them for not sticking their necks out.
Secondly, the guys at Bloomberg or Forbes or WSJ or whatever media venue one trusts are probably not going to choose sports economics to write about when there are other crises far more pertinent to both Main Street and Wall Street.
Pretty tough to talk about hockey when say there’s a major pension fund watching its credit portfolio get blown to bits.
That said, Forbes has a massive blogging community that might have already tackled this issue.
– This year, the Oiler would have had 4 20 goal scorers, and perhaps 5 with Kassian, based on a 82 game season
– Last year the Blues had 3 20 goal scorers
– in 2017 the Capitals won the Cup with 3 20 goal scorers
– Pitts had 5 and 4 20 goal scorers in the B2B Cup wins
– Fianlly Chicago in the last of their glorious runs had 4 20 goal scorers
– If past history is any indication, the Oilers this year would have had the same or more 20 goal scorers than the Cup winning teams in recent history
– This team does not need more 20 goal scorers to win the cup on that basis: sure get more if you can, but scoring this year wasn’t their issue. They might have won the cup this year, based on 5 20 goal scorers, and the narrative would be different
– Trading away actual NHL players like Larsson or Benning or Russell or Pool or othe actual NHL players for 2nd rounders or worse though, under the guise of having more draft picks : that’s not what this team needs to win now or in the future
– Anchored by two elite players, and secondary scoring, as measured by 20 goal scorers: we tick that box big-time. Our time is now, not trading away NHL players for picks.
Genuinely asking, you or anyone else who actually knows, but has the government actually issued a shelter in place order that prohibits non-essential travel? At least in Alberta?
No stay at home order in Alberta unless you have symptoms or are an active case or came from outside country in last 2 weeks.
Of course many of the places you might want travel to including non-essential business and national/provincial parks and skating rinks were ordered closed by Alberta. Beyond that they *recommended* limiting contacts.
On the plus side:
Ottawa company’s portable cov tester approved and Alberta gets 100K from the early run.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/health-canada-approves-portable-covid-19-test-clearing-way-for-alberta-rollout/
Also Alberta expanded test availability today to include everyone with symptoms. Assessment tool takes them to a web form. No need to call 811.
Percent of tests positive flat at 2%
Thanks for this.
Has AA ever played center nightly at the NHL level?
I don’t see them bringing back both Haas and Sheahan, personally.
Granlund was one of my primary trade deadline targets – I imagine he’ll be priced out of Edmonton, even with a clean disposition of Rusty.
I agree with this. Although I’ve read the tweets/blogs using metrics that show what he provides on the PK does not make up for what he gave away at evens but, to me, he’s worth $1.2M for the PK alone, essentially.
From reading, many really thought he hurt the team at evens and I think that’s why some (many) want him gone. He did have a couple of stretches when he was making egregious mistakes game after game but he was better in February and started to show that he can play center potentially.
When he’s confidant he is a strong transitioner of the puck by skate and a plus to the team.
Right, i forgot that Haas was that old – I was thinking he was more 26 or so (but knew he wasn’t – duh).
I thought Sheahan was pushing 30 for some reason.
Thanks.
The NHL mandated player isolation is over on Wednesday – of course, government has prohibited gatherings and such.
I’m not saying it won’t happen, or that it shouldn’t happen, but going to skate/practice is not towing the government please to stay home and not leave unless required.
Yup, same page we are on it. I would add, in addition to “provide depth, play wing, etc.” – kill penalties – something else Haas doesn’t do (or at least didn’t in his one NHL season).
Kinger_Oil.redux,
I’ve been saying this since the crisis started: it doesn’t look good economically, even out to the medium term, for a lot of industries. Anything that requires gathering… airplane travel, cruises, restaurants, concerts, sports, university classes, symposiums, trade shows, whatever… will be seriously affected.
Bars might do okay because kids are dumb and immortal, but by no means is that a sure thing. Just takes losing one or two friends and attitudes will change fast.
Latest reports on the pathology of the virus are not encouraging w.r.t. vaccine creation, but these reports have been changing weekly, so never know. But I think we do need to be careful in our hopes for a Covid panacea.
Yes, but the teams that need this approach are also the teams likely to be on KRusty’s NT list.
Fair enough. I guess I thought with everyone hurting financially, the list of teams this would be attractive to would be growing.
If they grow beyond the length of KRusty’s list, and that’s not an impossibility by any means, well then we’re in business!