The Edge of Night

The Oilers 2016 entry draft rolls along like molasses in January. Not content to be framed as the most disappointing draft of the decade (yet), the prospects captured by the team that fateful weekend keep progressing like checkers on a checker board: One space at a time.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: If Oilers draft for skill, Seth Jarvis likely to be best available
  • New Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Taylor Hall this summer?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: The results are in: How you voted in our inaugural Oilers fan survey
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers are preparing for an NHL draft in June
  • Jonathan Willis: How Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Riley Sheahan draw calls that lead to goals
  • James Mirtle: Ranking every NHL team’s salary cap situation, from best to worst
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers find Connor McDavid’s ideal winger this summer?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The two coaches who had the biggest influence on Dave Tippett
  • Jonathan Willis: The 5 reasons why the Oilers re-signed Gaetan Haas
  • Jonathan Willis: Can (and should) the Oilers trade Kris Russell?
  • Jonathan Willis: How Edmonton could have left 2010 draft with both Taylor Hall and Ryan Johansen
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
  • Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
  • Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
  • Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft

A quick note to thank everyone for joining (or re-joining) this week, it means a lot. I’ll be writing two more in this series over the next two weeks and follow it with a “what I think we’ll see on draft day” piece for The Athletic leading into May long weekend.

50-MAN LIST (39)

Ken Holland is signing these guys one day at a time, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s doing it just so I have to do this graph every day and count to 39. Diabolical! I’ll know today, if he signs Filip Berglund.

The best scouting report I’ve read on Niemelainen came from Corey Pronman (this happens often): Niemelainen was a fine two-way player for Saginaw this season. He’s a fantastic skater for a defender of his size, moving effortlessly around the ice. His skill isn’t high-end, but he moves the puck at a solid-to-average level, showing good hands and coordination for a player his size, and decent offensive instincts.

He improved a great deal this season, increasing his ice time from 13:47 a night to 19:46 per game. It’s not certain to me that Niemelainen’s increased playing time came with corresponding effectiveness. I wrote about his season here.

PROJECTED CONDORS 2019-20

I’ll suggest Niemelainen (21) is behind Lennstrom (25) in terms of depth chart, important to keep in mind the age difference. Niemelainen was highly rated in 2016 (Craig Button had him No. 36, Bob McKenzie No. 38 and Corey Pronman: No. 68) and the Oilers judged him worthy of signing.

Much of what happened between his draft day and last season performance spike suggested he would not be signed, but he earned the deal and his future is going to play out in California over the next two seasons. It gives me great pleasure to say (clears throat) the depth chart in front of him, both NHL and AHL, is considerable.

HARVEST MOON 2011

This is a tweaked harvest moon, I always found this edition to be plodding so I juiced it with some lines from the ‘top 20 prospects’ item that always follows the day after the draft concludes.

The Edmonton Oilers drafted Ryan Nugent-Hopkins yesterday, giving the club a potential elite level center for the first time in a generation. Seventeen years ago this club boasted youth and skill in abundance at the position (Weight, Arnott) but the 2000’s were a tough time at C.

With RNH and a position switch among the gifted young wingers possible, the team could have impressive depth when those items are added to Gagner, Lander and others. It’s all projection at this point, but these young men are bona fide.

I think we should expect a much different draft one year from now. The first round pick in 2012 should have exceptional value and with the blue featured heavily it could dovetail nicely for the Oilers. After that, the cluster of picks that began with Jordan Eberle will begin getting paid in full and winning will become important for the first time in years.

#1 overall- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Immediately the best prospect in the system, RNH is a vital pick in the development of this cluster. If he is in fact an elite level playmaker, the Oilers have at least four outstanding candidates for chemistry on the top line and powerplay. One of the questions we can ponder over the summer is “which winger will he develop chemistry with?” come the fall. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle will certainly get the first few at-bats, but Omark and Pääjärvi are out there and the ridiculous Hemsky remains an option.

#19 overall- D Oscar Klefbom: I talk about a complete defender a lot because they’re really important to a team’s overall success. Klefbom’s numbers in the SEL don’t tell the whole offensive story, but when facing kids his own age the young man posted impressive crooked numbers. Red Line Report had him #11 in the entire draft, saying he was “the best pure passer” of the top end blue for this year’s entry. Red Line then shifts into overdrive: “At Red Line, we believe he might ultimately become the best all-around balance of offensive upside and physical strength in this year’s class.”

#31 overall- D David Musil: I’m a little surprised by the reaction to his selection. He was safely in my top 30, so getting him at thirty-one is a nice bonus to my way of thinking. I’m all for players with a nice range of skills, but defensemen who can make the safe play have value. Musil isn’t going to bring the O, but he appears to be plenty good enough to supply the D. A safe pick. Red Line Report ranked him as the 5th best defenseman in the entire draft, one behind Klefbom.

#62 overall- G Samu Perhonen: I expect Perhonen will open up a SAAB dealership with Tommy Salo by the end of the decade but Janeway found a wormhole for Voyager to save Tuvok so maybe Stu MacGregor can find a goalie to save Steve Tambellini. Have no idea about Perhonen.

#74 overall- C Travis Ewanyk: Future role player has a nice range of skills and therefore a few slots he could fill. PF size and style, he can win faceoffs and projects as a future checking center. I don’t know that he’s going to bring enough offense to make the NHL.

#92 overall- D Dillon Simpson: I have no idea if he or a Brandon Davidson type will end up winning the day, but I think that’s the race he’s going to be involved in. Red Line Report: Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Son of former longtime NHL’er Craig Simpson has very good hockey sense and understands game situations instinctively. Had trouble getting qualilty icetime as a 17-year-old true freshman on deep, veteran defence corps of top collegiate program, but did show steady progress adjusting to the pace of play against older, stronger opponents. Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility.

#114 overall- C Tobias Rieder: Red Line Report loves him, describing Rieder as an “undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity.” Rieder impressed as a rookie in a very good league. He was taken at the point in the draft where you shouldn’t expect anything, but it’s also true that Rieder is probably a better NHL prospect than a couple of the kids Edmonton picked before him.

#122 overall- D Martin Gernat: Huge kid (6.05, 187) and considered somewhat similar to Marincin (lower ceiling) in style. Raw prospect, will take time but he’s certainly a player of interest.

#182 overall- G Frans Tuohimaa: Oilers saw him good . Has a nice SP in junior.

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167 Responses to "The Edge of Night"

  1. Brantford Boy says:

    NUGE!!!

    So realistically, what’s he worth moving “forward”?

    I’ll suggest we start the bidding at 6x7M per.

    What’s the number we have to let him walk? I’ll suggest 8M per.

    Is he protected in the expansion?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would love to get Nuge signed to 5 X $6.75M but would go as high as $7.5M.

    Don’t want to go past 5 years unless it really reduces the AAV.

    Caveat: The above is s/t Nuge essentially having a similar year to this year and league cap economics not shifting materially.

    —————————-

    Nuge is a pending UFA whent he expansion draft is scheduled.

    If he’s not re-signed prior to the draft, they can leave him unprotected – sure Seattle can take him with their Oiers’ pick but he’s not forced to sign with Seattle and can still become a UFA.

    Best case scenario is to leave him exposed (and unsigned) with a verbal deal in place and sign after the expansion draft.

    With that said, changing league economics aside, I’d be just fine with signing him early, starting this July 1 if he’s willing to give a few years and a bit of a home town discount (under $7MM).

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its a bit odd that Berglund hasn’t been made official. I mean, did Matty just make up that buried one-liner that he’s signed? Matty has put out some, well, not correct, tweets and such over the last few years but still…….

    They’ve got exactly a month to make the Berglund signing official – get er’ done Kenny!

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its been great radio listening to Yaremchuk and Iwanyk discuss the all-time team on the show this week (with Jamieson popping in at the end).

    I really like what they did with putting Messier as 1LW – it fits the criteria as he did play LW for the team (and was an all-star as a winger) – it allows them to get Dougie Weight in as the third line center.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Condors’ D is starting to fill in but I would suggest that, in reality, Laggeson isn’t on the team.

    I do think there is a chance he could sneak through waivers but I doubt the team wants to take that chance and, well, Rusty does need to go.

    Looking at the right side depth chart for the Condors should be some good reason to NOT trade Matty Benning. With Berglund staying in Sweden, the AHL depth is thin on the right side.

    Yes, Bouchard is NHL ready, there is the first injury call-up – if he’s on the team (in replacement of Benning or even Larsson) injury risk is massive.

    Yes, they could re-sign Mike Green and I’m all for that if its in the $1.5M range for one year but I don’t think he signs that contract.

    Lets me ask – would anyone be suggesting signing Mike Green if he wasn’t acquired at the deadline and play two games for the Oilers?

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge never developed in to an “elite level center” but did he cover the bet for a 1st overall?

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    That Klefbom pick was wonderful – developed great by the organization as well.

    He’s not an elite offensive producer but a great example of why production, or lack thereof, as a teenager in Sweden is often meaningless.

    Would we be happy if Broberg follows a Klefbom development path and “tops out” at a Klefbom level?

  8. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets me ask – would anyone be suggesting signing Mike Green if he wasn’t acquired at the deadline and play two games for the Oilers?

    Although I’ve always liked the player, I’ll say no… a UFA right shot D is going to cost more than 1.5M for one year on the open market, and he may well take that route anyway. Surely Minnesota or more likely Florida would offer more, and he can take his money tax free in the sun. The only other side is Holland knows the player well, and as LT often says likes his vet D men.

  9. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    YES! Yes he did… he’s the NUGE!

  10. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Lets me ask – would anyone be suggesting signing Mike Green if he wasn’t acquired at the deadline and play two games for the Oilers?

    I think the better question is “Would anybody be suggesting Mike Green if the coaching staff had shown more faith in Matt Benning.”

    I think Green fits with Holland’s/Tippett’s template of liking a couple of older players on the team for reasons that are not primariiy on ice related.

    I agree with you that Green is not the player he used to be, that the AAV has to be reasonable – I started at $2 mil and have talked myself up to $2.4 if Neal is bought out – and he is seen as the 6/7 dman and mentor for Bear, Jones and Bouchard when he arrives.

    I say this because I am hoping that KRussell, Smith and maybe even Neal are gone as those veteran voices; replaced by Ennis and Green.

    There are no math related numbers I am aware of to support the idea that having older, character mentors on the team in support positions is important and yet I have a sneaking suspicion that every old guy thinks that it is important for a team to have a couple.

  11. defmn says:

    That Musil pick at 31 pretty much stands out as Exhibit #1 of how much the role of defence changed in this game once the league decided that sticks were primarily for use in moving the puck rather than for cross checking guys standing in front of the net.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets me ask – would anyone be suggesting signing Mike Green if he wasn’t acquired at the deadline and play two games for the Oilers?

    Yes. I don’t think those 2 games have made any difference in my assessment of the player. One year at $1.5M or less and I’d seriously consider it – but only after Russell is moved.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Looking at the right side depth chart for the Condors should be some good reason to NOT trade Matty Benning. With Berglund staying in Sweden, the AHL depth is thin on the right side.

    I don’t see Benning and Russell both being traded in the summer unless Green is signed. I don’t sign Green unless Russell is traded. If Green is then signed it means either Benning or Lagesson are also getting traded.

    We need some depth on the right side, as you say. I’d prefer the 3RD to be Benning and have Bouchard and him go head-to-head in TC to see who wins the job… I’d love to bring Benning back on a multi-year deal for $1.5M per. I know that’s below his QO, but with Bear’s emergence and Bouchard breathing down his neck, Benning might prefer to have the stability of a 3 year contract vs a 1 year deal with $500k attached.

    Benning at 2 x $1.5M left would be eminently tradeable in the summer of 2021 when Bouchard has displaced him full time – and it gives Holland the option of not re-signing Larsson that summer if Bouchard has shown the ability to play with Klefbom by then.

  15. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Nuge never developed in to an “elite level center” but did he cover the bet for a 1st overall?

    I’d rather have Nuge than Hall right now, if that answers your question.

  16. Darth Tu says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The NHL pivoting away from centralized games after pushback from the NHLPA.

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/01/nhl-pivoting-coronavirus-return-plans-after-players-likely-balked/amp/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons&__twitter_impression=true

    I kind of stayed away from getting into the nitty gritty details with the 4 sites plan. How was that meant to work fixture wise? I’m hazarding a guess that teams just played the remaining games to get to 82 against divisional rivals?

    I wonder how many teams would have voted that down due to them having an easy run in under the former NHL schedule, but now having to play their divisional rivals it might put playoff hopes in jeopardy.

  17. Darth Tu says:

    Darth Tu,

    and sorry if you guys already talked this to death a month ago – I was buried with work for a while there so missed out on reading the comments for while.

  18. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM,

    yup

  19. kavy says:

    The 2011 draft is one of the more interesting to try and re-draft, with a lot of similar-quality players at the top and number of players who took quite a while to reach their potential. I’d go:

    1. Nikita Kucherov
    2. Dougie Hamilton
    3. Mark Scheifele
    4. Sean Couturier
    5. Johnny Gaudreau
    6. Jonathan Huberdeau
    7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    8. Gabriel Landeskog
    9. Mika Zibanejad
    10. Oscar Klefbom

    2-10 could be argued in a lot of different ways though. Then there is a bit of a drop to the next tier (which also has a lot of quality players, i.e. Willy Karlsson, J.T. Miller, Adam Larsson, Rakell, Trochek, Saad, Palat). Klefbom is probably the bridge between those two tiers but I think makes it into the top 10 in a re-draft.

  20. OilClog says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

    TSN should have to retire for not including Dougie.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilClog: TSN should have to retire for not including Dougie.

    They said they felt they couldn’t move Messier to the wing, but according to their rules they can.

  22. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, they could re-sign Mike Green and I’m all for that if its in the $1.5M range for one year but I don’t think he signs that contract.

    The Cap is going to be flat for a couple of years and players are going to be hit with huge escrow even at a flat cap. Many teams will be in a cap crunch. Green’s not a core player anymore (3rd pairing d’man) and he’s 34. He’s the type of player that gets a contract with max $1.5. That’s probably generous for him as a one-year stop gap player.

  23. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: LOL. Holland is trolling LT!

    Or is LT trolling Kenny? 😉

  24. Darth Tu says:

    defmn: Or is LT trolling Kenny?

    OR is LT actually Kenny….

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    YES!!!!!

    2 year ELC for Berglund confirmed.

    He’ll burn the first year of the contract in Sweden this year (unless the plan changes) but the key was to sign him before June to keep his rights!

    Shockingly, he was able to look past all the “middling depth” and sign with the team that has supported his development.

  26. meanashell11 says:
  27. defmn says:

    meanashell11: I was assured this would not happen.

    You know you can’t believe anything you read on the internet. 😉

  28. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

    Mironov was a beaut. My season tickets were centre ice just up a row from the terrace but I got picked one night in the contest where they move you down to centre ice about 7 rows off the ice.

    My brother and I were just getting settled in when ‘boom’ Mironov unloaded on some poor bugger whose name I no longer remember right in front of us.

    Stopped the game for almost 5 minutes before he finally got up off the ice and skated off under his own steam.

    I can still close my eyes and watch it in slow motion.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    meanashell11: I was assured this would not happen.

    Holy cow…we have a lot of defensemen.

    Famous last words.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They said they felt they couldn’t move Messier to the wing, but according to their rules they can.

    Nice to see you’re still around!

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:


    @MikeKellyNHL
    Berglund had good puck moving numbers in SHL this season..

    *10th in controlled zone exits, 14th in entries.

    Good defensive stick and accurate passer. All situations player with Skellefteå who played well on the PK.

    *ES, per-game among 82 D with min. 500 minutes.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Nice to see you’re still around!

    Thanks AGM.

    Not much to talk about these days, but usually check the thread.

    I decided not to talk about the pandemic here as it occupies me outside of it.

    This is where I go to get away from it.

    Good to have something to talk about here.

  33. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

    Not much to argue with here, but as good as Hall is, I don’t think he makes my roster over Craig Simpson. Hard to leave the guy with the highest career sh% of all time off the list.

    11-99-17
    18-39-9
    29-97-83
    10-10-25

    7-22
    4-21 (either Gregg or Gator – they both wore 21!)
    5-2

    31
    30

    94 (Foundational)

  34. OilClog says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They said they felt they couldn’t move Messier to the wing, but according to their rules they can.

    Messier on wing with Gretz and Kurri would of caused TSN to internally combust.

    My only problem with your lines and I love me some pop my shoulder back in Mike Grier, I’d have Hall as a 4th line RW, there’s no way I can’t find a spot for him, not only did he make Eakins look like the POS that he is, he also stood up for Ales Smooth Stride Hemsky when everyone was trying to exile the Prince out. And it would probably set OP off so badly he’d need to quarantine till 2033 to recover from such a suggestion.

  35. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Holy cow…we have a lot of defensemen.

    Famous last words.

    Are you leaving us?

  36. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    stephen sheps,

    10 – 10 on your shutdown line… you didn’t add your son Yak onto the all time list and go so far as to include him on the shutdown line with comrade Horcov, did you?

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Larry Brooks reporting that players don’t want to go in to 4 play-down sites which could lead to them being “away” for 3-4 months.

    Friedman on Oilers Now kind of confirms.

    League is looking at cost to quarantining families with the players – just considering it as an option – they are considering all the options.

    Brooks also suggesting a “playing at home” type scenario but Friedman says that’s been determined to be a non-starter.
    ————————–

    A key is testing – NBA has said they require 15,000 tests – NHL rosters are bigger so they will probably need more.

    To the extent there is still a lack of testing in the public – that will “look” really bad.

    ———————

    Bill Daly will be on Oilers Now in a bit so that will be some good info I’m sure.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Friedman “expects” a location for a divisional play down site for each division.

    The GMs that Friedman has spoken to expects the above.

    Stauffer will ask Bill Daly about it when he’s on later this afternoon.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Friedman on Oilers Now again states that, generally, the owners as a group are against compliance buyouts.

  40. OilClog says:

    381games 328pts 132g 196a
    419games 365pts 185g 180a

    One guy did this as a rookie straight out the gate with next to no help in a dead puck Era compared to that of the 80’s. The other guy did this on a cup or bust team, even rookie Hall on those Oilers team in place of Simpson would of been bananas, the talent isn’t the same.

    Halls a driver, Simpson is shotgun. All time teams should be filled with drivers 1st imo. While Simpson has the better shot, that’s it that’s all. Hall would of been dishing so many spicy passes to Anderson and Mess driving to the net. His speed and play making abilities with the puck are superior.

    Mess/Gretz/Kurri
    Smyth/Weight/Anderson
    Hall/McDavid/Drai
    Simp/Nuge/Hemsky

    Coffey/Pronger
    Lowe/Huddy
    Gator/Gregg
    Bobo

    Fuhr/Ranford

    Cigar Slats

    That’s my all time, this has been the most fun sports have been since the before time, feels good.

    I’ll take my talent driven roster over anyone sliding in checkers because of good feelings. I respect the Hell out of all the MacTs and Buckys there has been but putting the puck in the basket is always the hardest part to do, my 4 horn unicorn of basket filling talent will rule the day!

    Also, fuck Chris Pronger but I can’t deny. So double fuck Chris Pronger.

  41. jp says:

    defmn:
    That Musil pick at 31 pretty much stands out as Exhibit #1 of how much the role of defence changed in this game once the league decided that sticks were primarily for use in moving the puck rather than for cross checking guys standing in front of the net.

    No question that role has changed but I always thought the Musil pick got more flack than it deserved.

    Musil was very highly ranked coming into his draft year IIRC and had 32 points in his draft -1 season. He ran in place in his draft year but it’s not like he was devoid of offense.

    He wasn’t going to be a point producer but it was a bad pick more because he didn’t develop than because of who he was on draft day. IMO.

  42. OilClog says:

    defmn,

    I’m still chasing the high of when Bobo snatched the soul out of Sam’s Dad.

    https://youtu.be/L3GPjF4tl6Q

  43. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Friedman on Oilers Now again states that, generally, the owners as a group are against compliance buyouts.

    Ugh.

    Never mind Tyler Johnson, the Oilers are likely looking at spending only $2M or so on their 3C unless Holland can work some magical Neal-Turris type trade. Or a straight buyout.. In any case $$ will be tight again this summer.

  44. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    @MikeKellyNHL
    Berglund had good puck moving numbers in SHL this season..


    *10th in controlled zone exits, 14th in entries.

    Good defensive stick and accurate passer. All situations player with Skellefteå who played well on the PK.

    *ES, per-game among 82 D with min. 500 minutes.

    Damn, very nice. Do we have to wait a year?

    (and thank you)

  45. geowal says:

    Well Lt, with Berglund signing today you’re getting daily relevant content, so that’s good Even if you have to update your charts, again.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Damn, very nice. Do we have to wait a year?

    (and thank you)

    Probably two.

  47. krakman says:

    Maybe not following the “official” rules but my team

    McDavid Gretz Kurri
    Hall Mess Anderson
    Simpson Drai Hemsky
    Smyth Weight Nuge

    Pronger Coffey
    Lowe Huddy
    Gator Mironov

    Fuhr Ranford

  48. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Probably two.

    How so?

  49. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

    How the hell are you going to fit that under the cap?

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bill Daly on Oilers Now:

    – Health and Safety is first and primary but if they can do that and play hockey, they will marry the two – may not be able to happen but are exhausting all options

    – On reports of playdown sites: Lots of relevant factors:

    -COVID situation in the local (incident numbers, testing numbers, ability/access to test) – will not be
    in a situation where there is a lack of general testing in the local – will not test asymptomatic NHL
    players if there are the need for tests generally

    – General ability to host

    – Edmonton is on the list and interested

    – Divisional sites is one option but its not a “for sure”

    – On concern that players don’t want to be seperated for too long and potential for players to have family visits: issue is a fair one. Allowing players to go back to family is likely not feasible but they will be able to figure this out. Understand family interaction is important and will find a way to accommodate it

    – 2020/21 – can teams function without fans due to gate driven: league is being hit hard but is financially secure. If they need to play in empty buildings to start, they will find a way to do it and make the fan experience as great as possible.

    – NHL draft: What are benefits to doing it in June prior to season potentially finished: No perfect solution. Think there are benefits to draft in June – its important and needs to happen at some point and teams are prepared for it. Don’t want to plug it in to a short window. A fan engagement opportunity. So, lots of benefits but there are complications such as conditional picks. Those can be dealt with. A decision will be made soon.

  51. PennersPancakes says:

    krakman: Lowe Huddy

    This is really showing my age and this seems crazy to ask about a dman who put up 20 goals and +60 in a season. Was Huddy actually good?

    All i remember are some lowlights ins L.A. Either way he had an amazing career especially for being undrafted.

  52. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Interesting article about 2022 draft potentially being even better than this year’s. Says it could reach 2003 and doesn’t even mention 2015. Thoughts?

    http://stevenpellis.com/the-2022-nhl-draft-is-going-to-be-wicked/

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes. I don’t think those 2 games have made any difference in my assessment of the player. One year at $1.5M or less and I’d seriously consider it – but only after Russell is moved.

    Fair enough – I query if the player would even be on your radar if he wasn’t acquired by the Oilers?

    Sure, at $1.5M, I’d be happy to have him as a depth 6/7 guy – I’m not confidant he signs in that range though.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Using TSN’s criteria, here is my line up:

    Hall-Gretzky-Kurri
    Messier-Weight-Anderson
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Hemsky
    Tikkanen-Horcoff-Grier (checking)

    Coffey-Huddy
    Lowe-J. Smith (shut down)
    S. Smith-Mironov

    Fuhr-Ranford

    Foundational: Smyth

    I was on board with Messier on the left wing providing for the ability to bring Dougie Weight in as 3C (Yaremchuk and Iwanyk sold me on that earlier this week).

    With that said, Steve Dryden from TSN was on the show today and said that, yes, while “technically” that move would be allowed, its really against the “spirit” of the exercise and Messier “is a center”.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: On concern that players don’t want to be seperated for too long and potential for players to have family visits: issue is a fair one. Allowing players to go back to family is likely not feasible but they will be able to figure this out. Understand family interaction is important and will find a way to accommodate it

    Aren’t all the hotels in Edmonton empty? Bring the family along for a 3-4 month vacay! (and give the YEG economy a boost.)

  56. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Larry Brooks reporting that players don’t want to go in to 4 play-down sites which could lead to them being “away” for 3-4 months.

    Friedman on Oilers Now kind of confirms.

    League is looking at cost to quarantining families with the players – just considering it as an option – they are considering all the options.

    Brooks also suggesting a “playing at home” type scenario but Friedman says that’s been determined to be a non-starter.
    ————————–

    A key is testing – NBA has said they require 15,000 tests – NHL rosters are bigger so they will probably need more.

    To the extent there is still a lack of testing in the public – that will “look” really bad.

    ———————

    Bill Daly will be on Oilers Now in a bit so that will be some good info I’m sure.

    I’m not sure what to make of the Larry Brooks comments. The vast majority of players will be gone after the first round of playoffs. Only a small percentage of players would be away from their families for the entire duration. Every player will be there for training camp and possibly a handful of games to determine playoff positioning, but after that most players will be gone. And I won’t be surprised if only the top 24 teams are invited back. I could envision a scenario where only eight teams remain after six weeks.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t see Benning and Russell both being traded in the summer unless Green is signed. I don’t sign Green unless Russell is traded. If Green is then signed it means either Benning or Lagesson are also getting traded.

    We need some depth on the right side, as you say. I’d prefer the 3RD to be Benning and have Bouchard and him go head-to-head in TC to see who wins the job… I’d love to bring Benning back on a multi-year deal for $1.5M per. I know that’s below his QO, but with Bear’s emergence and Bouchard breathing down his neck, Benning might prefer to have the stability of a 3 year contract vs a 1 year deal with $500k attached.

    Benning at 2 x $1.5M left would be eminently tradeable in the summer of 2021 when Bouchard has displaced him full time – and it gives Holland the option of not re-signing Larsson that summer if Bouchard has shown the ability to play with Klefbom by then.

    I don’t disagree with any of this except for the reality of the Green re-sign. I agree that it very well could happen but I am not confidant it will be in the $1.5M range that we would hope for. I think both Holland and Tip (and Green himself) see him as more than a depth guy and I fear the analysis that he’s a legit 2RD for term option. Yes, a a fill in for a few games here or there, not for term.

    Agree on Benning – I am very happy with Benning at 3RD. $2M is almost not affordable but the player is worth it if the coach would just play the guy. He showed in the first half of the season that he is worth that money and why Tip/Playfair cut his ice so drastically in the 2nd half must be injury related.

    It would be great if Matty would take the term you mentioned on a deal below his QO requirement. There is a decent chance of that.

    I can see Matty doing that (as oppossed to AA, I don’t see him doing that – a bit different as a one year deal leads to an RFA expiry still on AA).

  58. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The NHL pivoting away from centralized games after pushback from the NHLPA.

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/01/nhl-pivoting-coronavirus-return-plans-after-players-likely-balked/amp/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons&__twitter_impression=true

    If you cross the border into Canada, you face a 14-day quarantine. An NHL player does not provide an essential service that warrants an exception, like a truck driver carrying food.

    I don’t think ordinary people will accept entitlled millionaires avoiding quarantine.

  59. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Aren’t all the hotels in Edmonton empty? Bring the family along for a 3-4 month vacay! (and give the YEG economy a boost.)

    Absolutely. So long as the family wants to come along (not a given!).

  60. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bill Daly on Oilers Now:

    Thanks for passing all that along.

  61. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They said they felt they couldn’t move Messier to the wing, but according to their rules they can.

    But why would MacT be on the all Oilers team.

  62. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks AGM.

    Not much to talk about these days, but usually check the thread.

    I decided not to talk about the pandemic here as it occupies me outside of it.

    This is where I go to get away from it.

    Good to have something to talk about here.

    How are your Chinese suppliers doing?

  63. jp says:

    godot10:
    I don’t think ordinary people will accept entitlled millionaires avoiding quarantine.

    When have ordinary people ever prevented entitled millionaires from doing anything lol?

    That aside, most discussion seem to involve 1) the players self-quarentining before crossing the border, and 2) those players remaining in quarentine (together) on arrival.

    There are many ways this could work that shouldn’t raise the ire of the ordinary person.

  64. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Interesting article about 2022 draft potentially being even better than this year’s.Says it could reach 2003 and doesn’t even mention 2015.Thoughts?

    http://stevenpellis.com/the-2022-nhl-draft-is-going-to-be-wicked/

    Are those players going to be playing any hockey this year. Can the CHL operate with empty buildings? The development pipeline will likely be significantly impacted by Covid.

  65. godot10 says:

    Tikkanen Gretzky Kurri
    Simpson Messier Anderson
    Smyth Weight Hemsky
    Hall McDavid Draisaitl

    Fuhr, Ranford

    Coffey, Huddy
    Lowe, Gregg
    S. Smith J. Smith

    I believe all four lines qualify as checking lines and each one would outscore the opposition.

    I’d really like to get Horcoff on the team.

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:

    Regarding your “sign Hall” article over at the Athletic, what I don’t get is why are you discussing the Hall contract at $8.5M x 7 and Nugent-Hopkins at $6.5M x 4? They have nearly equal production, Nuge is nearly 2 years younger, plays center if needed and is one of the best in the league on the PK.

    Here’s what I mean about production. Since Hall tends to get injured more often, he doesn’t produce elite boxcars. For instance in the past 3 seasons combined Hall is 50 in the NHL in points, tied with Dadonov and Schenn. Here are his stats compared to Nuge’s:

    Past 3 years
    TH: 66-116-182
    RNH: 74-104-178

    Past 4 years
    TH: 86-149-235
    RNH: 92-129-221

    Past 6 years
    TH: 126-212-338
    RNH: 128-183-311

    So you might think you’re adding another Draisaitl-level player, but you aren’t. You’re adding a Nuge-level player who can’t play center and doesn’t PK.

    I don’t understand why you think Hall is worth 30% more for 75% longer.

  67. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Wholeheartedly agree. I liked the helmet-less one as much as anyone, but including him and ol’ stonehands Bucky is puzzling. Weight and Guerin are instant upgrades, and could have fit the bill of a checking line as they were defensively competent players who could actually score.

    godot10,

    Indeed, that is an interesting wrinkle worth following. Any leagues able to resume before others will have a marked advantage, wonder if that will see a corresponding spike in rankings.

  68. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Lowetide:
    Regarding your “sign Hall” article over at the Athletic, what I don’t get is why are you discussing the Hall contract at $8.5M x 7 and Nugent-Hopkins at $6.5M x 4? They have nearly equal production, Nuge is nearly 2 years younger, plays center if needed and is one of the best in the league on the PK.

    I don’t really want to get into a Hall/Nuge discussion today but would note one thing.

    Hall is 1 year and 5 months older than Nuge (shy a couple of days). If you’re rounding off the difference is 1 year rather than 2.

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I don’t really want to get into a Hall/Nuge discussion today but would note one thing.

    Hall is 1 year and 5 months older than Nuge (shy a couple of days). If you’re rounding off the difference is 1 year rather than 2.

    I was looking at “season age”, next year is Hall’s 29-year-old season and Nuge’s 27-year-old season.

  70. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    So they were drafted two years apart?

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    ArmchairGM,

    So they were drafted two years apart?

    One year, but Hall was a late birthday. Similar to Bouchard and Broberg: drafted in consecutive years, but next season will be Bouchard’s 21-year-old season and Broberg’s 19-year-old season.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: I kind of stayed away from getting into the nitty gritty details with the 4 sites plan.How was that meant to work fixture wise? I’m hazarding a guess that teams just played the remaining games to get to 82 against divisional rivals?

    I wonder how many teams would have voted that down due to them having an easy run in under the former NHL schedule, but now having to play their divisional rivals it might put playoff hopes in jeopardy.

    It seems the NHL is still looking to get to 82 games if at all possible (and I think they want the current season to go a bit longer to delay the start of 2020/21 until December to give themselves a better chance at “fans in the stands”).

    To do so, its clear that they will need to re-gig the remaining games completely – it will not be completely fair – “toughness of schedule” will change for most teams but, at the end of the day, all parties with vested interest realize that compromises will need to be made to make it work.

  73. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I didnt read the athletic article but I would argue another point for Nuge is the style of game played. Hall definitely relies on his speed more than Nuge who has a more well rounded game. Have to think Nuge’s style has a better chance of aging gracefully.

    Youve already said it but PK and C swing it for me. If you take Hall over Nuge and one of Drai/McD go down do you have one of Sheahan/Haas/Khaira as 2C? Might as well write off the season.

  74. duct tape and foil says:

    I like Benning but he has a delicate melon and has shown no ability to play higher than 3rd pairing. Not my opinion, the coaches clearly think that as well. His cap hit is too high for 3rd pair. So he’s a guy I trade to re-coup a draft pick without regret if a deal is there, or in a package for a 3C or 1bG.

    Green is a veteran presence for the 3rd pair and will have to accept some PB time given his age. He will be a darn good mentor for Bouchard. I think he knows all this and he obviously has a good relationship with Holland since he waived to accept the trade. Cap room is one thing, budget is another, and NHL team budgets are going to be severely constrained. Players know that, and at his age, Green knows that accepting the 1 year bird in hand that Holland is likely offering is smart. About $1.5 is my guess as well but it might be less given the circumstances. Teams are going to fill their rosters with sub-million dollar players (like Nygard, Haas, and Jones) and older guys who have misjudged their value will miss the season and that’s the end of their career.

    Klef Bear
    Jones Larsson
    Nurse Bouchard
    Lagesson/Green

    I like 8 dmen ready to go and the above pairs have compatible skills. Nurse did a good job with Bear last year and I’d give him Bouchard to start next season.

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with any of this except for the reality of the Green re-sign.I agree that it very well could happen but I am not confidant it will be in the $1.5M range that we would hope for. I think both Holland and Tip (and Green himself) see him as more than a depth guy and I fear the analysis that he’s a legit 2RD for term option.Yes, a a fill in for a few games here or there, not for term.

    Agree on Benning – I am very happy with Benning at 3RD. $2M is almost not affordable but the player is worth it if the coach would just play the guy.He showed in the first half of the season that he is worth that money and why Tip/Playfair cut his ice so drastically in the 2nd half must be injury related.

    It would be great if Matty would take the term you mentioned on a deal below his QO requirement.There is a decent chance of that.

    I can see Matty doing that (as oppossed to AA, I don’t see him doing that– a bit different as a one year deal leads to an RFA expiry still on AA).

  75. duct tape and foil says:

    They will be whistling a different tune in 6 months after the hoped for V recovery shows itself to entirely L shaped.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Friedman on Oilers Now again states that, generally, the owners as a group are against compliance buyouts.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    kavy:
    The 2011 draft is one of the more interesting to try and re-draft, with a lot of similar-quality players at the top and number of players who took quite a while to reach their potential. I’d go:

    1. Nikita Kucherov
    2. Dougie Hamilton
    3. Mark Scheifele
    4. Sean Couturier
    5. Johnny Gaudreau
    6. Jonathan Huberdeau
    7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    8. Gabriel Landeskog
    9. Mika Zibanejad
    10. Oscar Klefbom

    2-10 could be argued in a lot of different ways though. Then there is a bit of a drop to the next tier (which also has a lot of quality players, i.e. Willy Karlsson, J.T. Miller, Adam Larsson, Rakell, Trochek, Saad, Palat). Klefbom is probably the bridge between those two tiers but I think makes it into the top 10 in a re-draft.

    Fun exercise.

    If i was going to nit-pick, I think I’d move Huburdeau up to the Schieffle range. I think he’s taken over from Barkov as the most under-rated player in the league and put him ahead of Coturier (even though he’s a center) – the offensive gap is too high to ignore.

    Also, as an aside, some of the best value contracts in the league on that list – starting with Huburdeau, Couturier and Schieffele.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: The Cap is going to be flat for a couple of years and players are going to be hit with huge escrow even at a flat cap.Many teams will be in a cap crunch.Green’s not a core player anymore (3rd pairing d’man) and he’s 34.He’s the type of player that gets a contract with max $1.5.That’s probably generous for him as a one-year stop gap player.

    I don’t disagree with the premise but it seems the Oilers coaching staff valued him as a top 4 d-man (based on usage and verbal) and the player likely does himself.

    There is a big gap between where I place the player’s proper deployment and that of the coaching staff. I don’t know where the GM’s head is at but its likely more in line with the coaching staff than mine.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog: Messier on wing with Gretz and Kurri would of caused TSN to internally combust.

    My only problem with your lines and I love me some pop my shoulder back in Mike Grier, I’d have Hall as a 4th line RW, there’s no way I can’t find a spot for him, not only did he make Eakins look like the POS that he is, he also stood up for Ales Smooth Stride Hemsky when everyone was trying to exile the Prince out. And it would probably set OP off so badly he’d need to quarantine till 2033 to recover from such a suggestion.

    Hall as 4W wasn’t do-able under the criteria. There needed to be a legit checking line and Hall doesn’t fit the criteria as 4th liner on th team.

    Hey, I’d love me some Taylor Hall added to the Oilers top 6. My issue is long term cap implications and the short term moves needed to make it happen. With no cap – sign the man and put him on McDavid’s left wing!

  79. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil,

    You make an important point: the real financial crunch for the league is likely next off-season, not this one.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog:
    381games 328pts 132g 196a
    419games 365pts185g 180a

    One guy did this as a rookie straight out the gate with next to no help in a dead puck Era compared to that of the 80’s. The other guy did this on a cup or bust team, even rookie Hall on those Oilers team in place of Simpson would of been bananas, the talent isn’t the same.

    Halls a driver, Simpson is shotgun. All time teams should be filled with drivers 1st imo. While Simpson has the better shot, that’s it that’s all. Hall would of been dishing so many spicy passes to Anderson and Mess driving to the net. His speed and play making abilities with the puck are superior.

    Mess/Gretz/Kurri
    Smyth/Weight/Anderson
    Hall/McDavid/Drai
    Simp/Nuge/Hemsky

    Coffey/Pronger
    Lowe/Huddy
    Gator/Gregg
    Bobo

    Fuhr/Ranford

    Cigar Slats

    That’s my all time, this has been the most fun sports have been since the before time, feels good.

    I’ll take my talent driven roster over anyone sliding in checkers because of good feelings. I respect the Hell out of all the MacTs and Buckys there has been but putting the puck in the basket is always the hardest part to do, my 4 horn unicorn of basket filling talent will rule the day!

    Also, fuck Chris Pronger but I can’t deny. So double fuck Chris Pronger.

    Great team but doesn’t fit the criteria

    – Pronger not allowed for example (not enough games played)
    – that 4th line isn’t a “checking line” and that was a mandated part of the criteria

  81. godot10 says:

    duct tape and foil:
    They will be whistling a different tune in 6 months after the hoped for V recovery shows itself to entirely L shaped.

    Compliance buyouts cost real dollars. They will keep the cap flat and use 50% escrow. Compliance buyouts with empty building or half full buildings is effectively a capital call. The owners didn’t get rich spending their own money.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Ugh.

    Never mind Tyler Johnson, the Oilers are likely looking at spending only $2M or so on their 3C unless Holland can work some magical Neal-Turris type trade. Or a straight buyout.. In any case $$ will be tight again this summer.

    I’ve been stating the entire time that I don’t think compliance buyouts are anywhere near a certainty.

    The players are already going to “owe the owners money” and this just is more money to the players that goes out of the system.

    This doesn’t mean that it won’t happen – I don’t know the politics on how the board of governors “vote” on things but my guess is, in practice (as oppossed to technically) its not quite “one vote per member”. Sure Jacobs (through his kids) only has one technical vote but I think his vote “is larger”.

    I think Rusty out for cap space, if possible, or, if not possible, Rusty for a make-shift 3C/overpaid contract like Perrault is the option for 3C. Yes, I know Perrault isn’t a full time center any more but he’s more of a 3C than Sheahan, in my opinion.

    I think Rusty plus for Bonino is a strong option as well- the plus won’t be a small asset but it may be workable.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruins re-sign Halak for 1 X $2.25M.

    One potential tender off the market – didn’t think we’d get him (not for that price) but he was high on the list of “reasonable wants” for me.

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bruins re-sign Halak for 1 X $2.25M.

    One potential tender off the market – didn’t think we’d get him (not for that price) but he was high on the list of “reasonable wants” for me.

    That’s a steal. The best we can hope for is it helps set the bar for goalie contracts this summer.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    $1.25M performance bonus for 10 games for Halak as well (its a 35 plus contract).

    I’m not positive but I think that’s in addition to the $2.25M (which is the base).

    That’s more in line with the comp I thought he’d get.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bruins re-sign Halak for 1 X $2.25M.

    One potential tender off the market – didn’t think we’d get him (not for that price) but he was high on the list of “reasonable wants” for me.

    ArmchairGM: That’s a steal. The best we can hope for is it helps set the bar for goalie contracts this summer.

    Ah, maybe that was too hasty. Looks like he has a performance bonus of $1.25M that triggers if he plays 10 games (not confirmed yet though).

  87. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with the premise but it seems the Oilers coaching staff valued him as a top 4 d-man (based on usage and verbal) and the player likely does himself.

    There is a big gap between where I place the player’s proper deployment and that of the coaching staff.I don’t know where the GM’s head is at but its likely more in line with the coaching staff than mine.

    Green played two games with the Oilers. Is it possible that you are reading too much into that tiny sample as to how the coaching staff sees Green?

  88. Munny says:

    LT,

    I was expecting a photo of Adam and Nicole Drake with this article title, lol.

  89. duct tape and foil says:

    godot10: Compliance buyouts cost real dollars.They will keep the cap flat and use 50% escrow.Compliance buyouts with empty building or half full buildings is effectively a capital call.The owners didn’t get rich spending their own money.

    Yes but you have to consider the time scales. Near term costs are reduced if the buy-out candidate is replaced by minimum salary player. Let’s use Neal as an example if bought out before next season. His total buyout would be $11,500,000 stretched out over 6 years ($17,250,000 * 67% buyout multiplier) for a savings of $5,750,000 million. Add on a minimum salary replacement cost player and the overall savings are modest, but costs are stretched out over a longer period (less than 3 million over 6 years instead of Neal’s existing salary that would cost almost 6 million over 3 years). The real budget killer will be the next 1-3 years, and buying out Neal saves 3 million over those years. That is not insignificant during the likely period of maximum budget impact. Replacement player would also be subject to escrow.

    Hard to say what escrow will be to do a real comparison but remember if they keep the cap flat then the cap floor also stays flat and that could really hurt low salary teams. Russell’s contract (low salary with high cap) may be very desirable after July 1.

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    So, Matt Sekeres from TSN 1040 has dropped the bomb.

    He says the reason Bettman is so eager to finish the season is a clause in the regional Fox broadcasts stipulates that, if this season is not finished, the contracts roll over to next season and Fox doesn’t have to pay ANYTHING to broadcast the games.

    This affects 12 US teams including several of the weak sisters including ARZ, CAR and FLA.

    It would devastate their bottom lines and be a massive hit to HRR.

  91. defmn says:

    duct tape and foil: Yes but you have to consider the time scales. Near term costs are reduced if the buy-out candidate is replaced by minimum salary player. Let’s use Neal as an example if bought out before next season. His total buyout would be $11,500,000 stretched out over 6 years ($17,250,000 * 67% buyout multiplier) for a savings of $5,750,000 million. Add on a minimum salary replacement cost player and the overall savings are modest, but costs are stretched out over a longer period (less than 3 million over 6 years instead of Neal’s existing salary that would cost almost 6 million over 3 years). The real budget killer will be the next 1-3 years, and buying out Neal saves 3 million over those years. That is not insignificant during the likely period of maximum budget impact. Replacement player would also be subject to escrow.

    Do compliance buyouts work on the same time scale as normal buyouts? I posted this same math the other day for a normal buyout but I am not sure how they did the compliance ones last time.

  92. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So, Matt Sekeres from TSN 1040 has dropped the bomb.

    He says the reason Bettman is so eager to finish the season is a clause in the regional Fox broadcasts stipulates that, if this season is not finished, the contracts roll over to next season and Fox doesn’t have to pay ANYTHING to broadcast the games.

    This affects 12 US teams including several of the weak sisters including ARZ, CAR and FLA.

    It would devastate their bottom lines and be a massive hit to HRR.

    KaBoom if true. Any idea what the FOX contract pays to the league per season?

  93. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    LT,

    I was expecting a photo of Adam and Nicole Drake with this article title, lol.

    Haha! I tell you, I was tempted!

  94. duct tape and foil says:

    I think it was the same last time

    defmn: Do compliance buyouts work on the same time scale as normal buyouts? I posted this same math the other day for a normal buyout but I am not sure how they did the compliance ones last time.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: KaBoom if true. Any idea what the FOX contract pays to the league per season?

    I can’t find a breakout but Sinclair Broadcasting purchased the Fox Regional channels for $9.8 billion last year and you can bet they want a ROI.

    Those channels also broadcast MLB & NBA games and I’m sure the NHL is third wheel but the dollars sure ain’t nothing.

    One of the teams affected is STL and I would think the dollars involved are considerable.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Aren’t all the hotels in Edmonton empty? Bring the family along for a 3-4 month vacay! (and give the YEG economy a boost.)

    I don’t think the families will want to quarantine in a hotel room for 3-4 months and, although the NHL is assesing cost, its not really a viable option

  97. MushedPeas says:

    Took a stab:

    Mess – Gretz – Kurri
    Guerin – Weight – Anderson
    Drai – McD – Hemmer
    Tik – MacT – Rosie

    Coffee – Huddy
    S. Smith – Gator
    Lowe – BoBo

    Fuhr – Billy

    Smyth

    Almost took Rolli over Fuhr, Marchant over Mac T. Thought about Manson, and think there must be Oiler blue I’m forgetting.

  98. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: I can’t find a breakout but Sinclair Broadcasting purchased the Fox Regional channels for $9.8 billion last year and you can bet they want a ROI.

    Those channels also broadcast MLB & NBA games and I’m sure the NHL is third wheel but the dollars sure ain’t nothing.

    One of the teams affected is STL and I would think the dollars involved are considerable.

    It is Gary’s primary job to make sure the owners make money so I have no doubt every clause of every contract has been subjected to intense study so that everybody knows where the league stands.

    Sure seems like a strange clause to be in there without some kind of qualifier such as lockout or player strike but if true it is another layer of complication to keep Gary awake nights.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: But why would MacT be on the all Oilers team.

    Because the rules required a “checking line”.

  100. MushedPeas says:

    All time Flames lineup formidable straight through.

    Check out that blue line.

  101. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: It is Gary’s primary job to make sure the owners make money so I have no doubt every clause of every contract has been subjected to intense study so that everybody knows where the league stands.

    Sure seems like a strange clause to be in there without some kind of qualifier such as lockout or player strike but if true it is another layer of complication to keep Gary awake nights.

    Wait..there’s more.

    Greg (Alphabet Soup) the former Puck Daddy has also weighed in by saying many national advertisers have minimum games played in their contracts and the threshold has not been met.

    Millions at stake.

    Bettman is hoping that rink board advertising can meet those thresholds in TV games without fans

    Remember, many of these companies also have high priced lawyers drafting these contracts.

  102. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Horcoff or Weight instead of MacT would have been both suited to a “checking” role and more skilled. Same for Guerin over Bucky. Loved his heart but let’s not kid ourselves… an all-time Oiler great, he is not.

    Remember, this exercise is akin to the Team Canada Olympic model, where you have first line / franchise players playing checking roles they’re not typically tasked with on their club teams.

  103. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Wait..there’s more.

    Greg (Alphabet Soup) the former Puck Daddy has also weighed inby saying many national advertisers have minimum games played in their contracts and the threshold has not been met.

    Millions at stake.

    Bettman is hoping that rink board advertising can meet those thresholds in TV games without fans

    Remember, many of these companies also have high priced lawyers drafting these contracts.

    No doubt. When they first shut the league down my first thought was the media rights holders and how they would react. These are all large corporate entities, of course, with no desire to extract a pound of flesh or destroy future business relationships but they will all have to be made whole or close to it. The negotiations, I would think, will be over how close to 100% and what time line.

    As you say, it is going to cost. And both the PA and the league should be thankful that Fehr and Bettman are both professionals. With some of the yahoos that have been in those positions over the decades the potential for disaster would be higher.

  104. norm_klassen says:

    The Fox Deal is exactly why the WWE is performing with empty arenas. They have a contract to withhold to

  105. MushedPeas says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    K. Horcov probably best checking centre available (I’d swap him into my lineup).

    Weight could pivot any kind of line but according to TSN they want players known for checking and/or shutdown roles?

  106. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: No doubt. When they first shut the league down my first thought was the media rights holders and how they would react. These are all large corporate entities, of course, with no desire to extract a pound of flesh or destroy future business relationships but they will all have to be made whole or close to it. The negotiations, I would think, will be over how close to 100% and what time line.

    As you say, it is going to cost. And both the PA and the league should be thankful that Fehr and Bettman are both professionals. With some of the yahoos that have been in those positions over the decades the potential for disaster would be higher.

    One would have to assume there have already been high level negotiations in New York where most of these entities are based and the consensus is to finish the regular season.

    The remaining questions are how, where and when.

    Every stakeholder wins if this can happen.

  107. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: One would have to assume there have already been high level negotiations in New York where most of these entities are based and the consensus is to finish the regular season.

    The remaining questions are how, where and when.

    Every stakeholder wins if this can happen.

    And it will be up to Fehr to explain it to his constituency in terms they understand.

  108. defmn says:

    norm_klassen:
    The Fox Deal is exactly why the WWE is performing with empty arenas. They have a contract to withhold to

    Makes sense.

  109. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: And it will be up to Fehr to explain it to his constituency in terms they understand.

    Yep.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dylan Griffing
    @Dylan_Griffing
    #LetsGoOilers – Theodor Lennström (Frölunda HC, SHL)
    A strong contender for best signing, Lennström is incredibly well rounded. His team heavily dominates offense when he’s on the ice, and he really helps with that. His CF% led all defensemen (min. 15 GP) and was second overall in the league. Although he isn’t at a high level of converting his shots to goals, he gets the puck on net often to create offense. He ranked 16th for all SHL defensemen in S/GP with 2.00. Lennström has the ability to make an instant impact for Edmonton.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    They will be whistling a different tune in 6 months after the hoped for V recovery shows itself to entirely L shaped.

    How would that scenario lead to the owners as a group wanting to throw more money at the players, money that leaves the system?

  112. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Dylan Griffing
    @Dylan_Griffing
    #LetsGoOilers – Theodor Lennström (Frölunda HC, SHL)
    A strong contender for best signing, Lennström is incredibly well rounded. His team heavily dominates offense when he’s on the ice, and he really helps with that. His CF% led all defensemen (min. 15 GP) and was second overall in the league. Although he isn’t at a high level of converting his shots to goals, he gets the puck on net often to create offense. He ranked 16th for all SHL defensemen in S/GP with 2.00. Lennström has the ability to make an instant impact for Edmonton.

    Take a look at the depth chart.

    He’s blocked for years.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Green played two games with the Oilers. Is it possible that you are reading too much into that tiny sample as to how the coaching staff sees Green?

    Of course, its possible – for sure but, for now, I believe its intel in to their thought process and the circumstances at the time make that belief stronger:

    I anticipated Green was acquired as a depth guy – to be 6/7 on the depth chart and injury cover for the stretch run and the playoffs but not only did he play right away after travelling to me the team (and Benning was healthy scratched) but he played on back to back nights and get 2nd pairing minutes on the 2nd game.

    The useage was a tell to me – I could be totally wrong.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps: Not much to argue with here, but as good as Hall is, I don’t think he makes my roster over Craig Simpson. Hard to leave the guy with the highest career sh% of all time off the list.

    11-99-17
    18-39-9
    29-97-83
    10-10-25

    7-22
    4-21 (either Gregg or Gator – they both wore 21!)
    5-2

    31
    30

    94 (Foundational)

    I tweeted this in a convo with RiversQ:

    It killed me not to get Simpson on there

    Hall drove play and had good pts/gm

    Simpson scored a ton. Net front on PP1

    He played with 2 Hall of Fame in Messier and Anderson so he wasn’t driving the line.

    High, high end player who I liked a lot.

    If he played to 35 he’d be in the HOF too.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    MushedPeas:
    Took a stab:

    Mess – Gretz – Kurri
    Guerin – Weight – Anderson
    Drai – McD – Hemmer
    Tik – MacT – Rosie

    Coffee – Huddy
    S. Smith – Gator
    Lowe – BoBo

    Fuhr – Billy

    Smyth

    Almost took Rolli over Fuhr, Marchant over Mac T. Thought about Manson, and think there must be Oiler blue I’m forgetting.

    Nice team but Guerin missed the games played cut-off.

    Roli wouldn’t have qualified either and, if we are going with any non-qualified goalie, its got to be Cujo, no?

    Not to mention, Roli is so far down the list of Oilers goalies – I don’t care about his .916 one year – he was the king of the awful goal at the worst time. I know many think the world of Roli but he was not a plus goalie – got damn hot for 3 rounds hough.

    If we are replacing a D, I’d have to go with Mironov well before Charlie.

    If we are replacing the checking center, I’d have to give Horc some love.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Take a look at the depth chart.

    He’s blocked for years.

    and does that block Oilers fans from learning about their new asset?

    P.S. the same reason Berglund wouldn’t sign – posted as fact, irrefutable fact, and doubled down on as fact.

    P.S.S. the player is signed to an ELC which is, by definition a 2-way contact which, by definition, has a max AHL salary of $70K. I’m of the opinion that the player is coming across confident in his abilities and ready to compete.

    He is highly likely solid depth on the left side so that Sammy doesn’t need to be rushed if multiple injuries happen and it should be presumed that Kris Russell is not on contract with the Oilers when the next season commences, whenever that may be.

  117. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Because the rules required a “checking line”.

    I have the two of the three best checking wingers of the last 50 years on a line with Gretzky. And Messier and Anderson on the 2nd line. That is the four of the twenty best defensive forwards in the NHL in the last 50 years.

    Tikkanen and Kurri were an outscoring line with Mark Lamb as their centre.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting that Lennstrom got the max ELC contract (not including bonus structure) for $925K but Berglund came in a bit less.

    Yes, I know UFA vs. RFA (essentially – they had his rights) but Berglund could have been a UFA in a month.

    Good job Kenny the grinder!
    —————
    The #LetsGoOilers signed ’16 3rd Rnd Pick 22 y/o RD Filip Berglund to 2 year ELC.

    Yr 1: $700K Base, $92.5K Signing Bonus, $132.5K GP Bonus
    Yr 2: $750K Base, $92.5K SB, $82.5K GP Bonus

    Cap Hit $815.7K, AAV 925K

    20P in 52 SHL GP.

  119. Mr DeBakey says:

    Honestly it’s difficult to imagine a better team being created than this one.

    Gotta disagree with you there, Normie.
    The selected defense is a gong show.
    Fogolin was a middlin NHLer
    Gregg was a 3rd pairing D [2nd PP unit]

    Al Hamilton
    Boris Mironov
    Eric Brewer
    Janne Niinimaa
    Jeff Petry
    Luke Richardson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Are ALL better than both, and about half of them better than Smith too.

    Did I ever tell you about the time I watched Gregg pitch for he Alberta Junior Selects against a touring Japanese team?

    Up front Hall has to be ahead of Simpson and Horcoff would eat MacTavish’s lunch [If Tikkanen can be considered shutdown, ditto for Horcoff.]

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    This is interesting given the verbal out there that the Oilers were going to pick Sergachev:

    NHL News
    @puck_report2
    Calgary #Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk tells OverDrive that he thought he would be picked 4th by the Edmonton Oilers in 2016, but once Pierre-Luc Dubois went 3rd overall he saw the #LetsGoOilers throw the jersey under the table and changed the nameplate… to Jesse Puljujarvi.

    Either way, damn Tkachuk would make this team good……

  121. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, its possible – for sure but, for now, I believe its intel in to their thought process and the circumstances at the time make that belief stronger:

    I anticipated Green was acquired as a depth guy – to be 6/7 on the depth chart and injury cover for the stretch run and the playoffs but not only did he play right away after travelling to me the team (and Benning was healthy scratched) but he played on back to back nights and get 2nd pairing minutes on the 2nd game.

    The useage was a tell to me – I could be totally wrong.

    If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

    No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

  122. pts2pndr says:

    Yeti: How the hell are you going to fit that under the cap?

    Use what they got payed during their prime.?

  123. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Using the TSN criteria. The first and fourth lines could individually or alternatively function as your shutdown line… all while putting the biscuit in the basket. I don’t see the need for pure grinders here… plenty of talented Oilers were adept at sawing off when the game was tight. To say guys like MacT and Bucky were better choices (than, say, Weight or Guerin) is like saying Kopitar, Bergeron or Datsyuk couldn’t play in a shutdown role because they’re talented scorers. My guess is that TSN added that criteria to handicap the dynasty teams so there’s an appearance of a bit more level playing field, or to account for different eras.

    Nuge – Gretzky – Kurri
    Hall – Messier – Anderson
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Hemsky
    Tikkanen – Weight – Eberle

    Coffey – Huddy
    Lowe – J. Smith
    Klefbom – Staios

    Fuhr
    Ranford

    Smyth

    The Close But No Ciger Squad:
    Simpson – Arnott – Guerin
    Niinimaa – Visnovski
    Joseph

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    PPS.

    If multiple players succumb to the plague…we’re all set.

    Good grief.

  125. Mr DeBakey says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Guerin doesn’t have enough games.

    Also, Tikkanen over Smyth? Don’t make me come down there.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is the end of the line: The Canadian Professional Chuckwagon Association has suspended its 2020 season – is nothing sacred?

  127. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I noticed that about Guerin, so I added Ebs instead. At some point you’ve got to be a threat to score… EDIT: Perhaps Pisani is the better *fit on a more defensively minded line. I just think that Ebs is the threat on the line who opens up space for the other two that it would work well. And he didn’t always avoid the tough areas either, that was a trend that happened late in his tenure with the team. Unfortunately.

    And as much as I loved Smytty — and I did (do) — I was always a big Tikkanen fan. I loved how he got under the opposition’s skin. Responsible without the puck. And he could score too. Big part of why I wanted Turtle in ’16.

  128. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lowetide:

    Regarding your “sign Hall” article over at the Athletic, what I don’t get is why are you discussing the Hall contract at $8.5M x 7 and Nugent-Hopkins at $6.5M x 4? They have nearly equal production, Nuge is nearly 2 years younger, plays center if needed and is one of the best in the league on the PK.

    Here’s what I mean about production. Since Hall tends to get injured more often, he doesn’t produce elite boxcars. For instance in the past 3 seasons combined Hall is 50 in the NHL in points, tied with Dadonov and Schenn. Here are his stats compared to Nuge’s:

    Past 3 years
    TH: 66-116-182
    RNH: 74-104-178

    Past 4 years
    TH: 86-149-235
    RNH: 92-129-221

    Past 6 years
    TH: 126-212-338
    RNH: 128-183-311

    So you might think you’re adding another Draisaitl-level player, but you aren’t. You’re adding a Nuge-level player who can’t play center and doesn’t PK.

    I don’t understand why you think Hall is worth 30% more for 75% longer.

    I said earlier I wasn’t interested in a discussion but…

    Here’s one good reason why Hall is worth more, I think.

    GF% WOWYs from 13-14 to 15-16 (NST only allows 3 seasons and these are the most recent). I’ve included Jordan Eberle as well as a kind of control since the 3 played together quite a lot.

    TH+RNH THnoRNH RNHnoTH
    51.2 GF% 49.1GF% 42.6GF%

    RNH+TH RNHnoTH THnoRNH (these of course are the same numbers rearranged)
    51.2 GF% 42.6GF% 49.1GF%

    TH+JE THnoJE JEnoTH
    56.8GF% 46.9GF% 44.3GF%

    RNH+JE RNHnoJE JEnoRNH
    49.2GF% 39.7GF% 37.1GF%

    And with the line tool, each player without either of the others:

    Hall
    47.5GF%

    RNH
    32.5GF%

    Eberle
    39.6GF%

    None of them on:
    35.8GF%

    All of these guys benefited from playing with each other but I think it’s pretty clear Hall stands out.

  129. pdaouster says:

    godot10: Are those players going to be playing any hockey this year.Can the CHL operate with empty buildings? The development pipeline will likely be significantly impacted by Covid.

    What a great opportunity to skip this draft and move the draft year to 19 years old.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    NBA Update:

    Silver and most high ranking officials want the season completed and the championship given out.

    Las Vegas and Disney’s Wild World of Sports contemplated for quarantine locations.

    15K tests required – manufacturers can guarantee those tests but not that they’d be available to the public

    2020/21 could be delayed to December and go to August

    Owners call talked about the delayed season – gives the NBA more time and more dates for fans in the arenas and they may want to delay the start of the season even if they don’t need to (i.e. if they cancel the rest of this season).

  131. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar: How would that scenario lead to the owners as a group wanting to throw more money at the players, money that leaves the system?

    But less money near term which is where the bigger problem may lie. Contracts are guaranteed so the money will be paid, where compliance buyout or escrow is better for owners is unclear until level of escrow is known. If things got really bad you could buy out Neal and run with 22 and save almost 4 million per year until the contract expires. Then it would cost you $1.95 for the duration of buy-out. You don’t necessarily have to replace Neal. Nobody talking about the impact of cap floor staying the same on low budget teams.

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    So, it’s Friday night…steak night at the Hair household.

    Steak with Creamy Garlic Parmesan Sauce.

    The steak:

    Place a 10-to-12-inch cast-iron skillet in the oven and heat the oven to 500 degrees F. Bring the steak to room temperature.

    When the oven reaches temperature, remove the skillet and place on the stove over high heat for 5 minutes. Coat the steak lightly with butter and sprinkle both sides with a generous pinch of salt. Grind on black pepper. (we use Keg Steak Seasoning for this.)

    Immediately place the steak in the middle of the hot, dry skillet. Cook 30 seconds without moving. Turn with tongs and cook another 30 seconds, then put the pan straight into the oven for 2 minutes.

    Flip the steak and cook for another 2 minutes. (This time is for medium-rare steak. If you prefer medium, add a minute to both of the oven turns.)

    Remove the steak from the skillet, cover loosely with foil and rest for 2 minutes. Serve whole or slice thin and fan onto plate.

    The sauce:

    2 Tbsp
    oil

    1 Tbsp
    butter

    3 – 4 cloves
    garlic, minced

    1 Tbsp
    flour

    1 c
    heavy cream

    1/2 c
    Beef broth, for whichever meat you’re serving the sauce with

    salt & cracked black pepper to taste

    1/2 c
    fresh grated parmesan

    2 oz
    cream cheese

    In a medium saucepan, melt butter with oil. Add the garlic and saute for a minute or two. Add the flour and cook for about 1 more minute.

    Pour in the broth and heavy cream and bring to a slow boil and whisk until thickened. Whisk in the cream cheese and Parmesan until smooth and creamy.

    Pour over steak and…

    Enjoy!

  133. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – A lot of our All Star team is comprised of secondary players who played on teams that had incredible talent

    – while Lowe MaCT smith Buchberger were all fine complimentary players, they were replaceable by many of their contemporaries.

    – Fans conflate winning with good players. Those guys took advantage of the situation. Good for them. They are “great” by association. But our team had many forwards and D better than those: they just happened to play on shittier teams.

    – For instance give Staois the same role as Smith he does same. Petry > Lowe. Hall v Anderson: discuss. Arnott where? Klef > Foligno. Weight/Nuge as shut down C way better than MacT

    – Playing on cup winning teams with stud line mates, doens’t make a secondary player great IMO

  134. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Harpers Hair,

    – One recurring themes in your menus is rich cream-based sauces: approve and recommend!

    – MSM is starting to twig into some of the things they ought to be investigating for awhile: obligations of the broadcasters to pay, sponsors, health concerns, gate, travel, etc.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I have the two of the three best checking wingers of the last 50 years on a line with Gretzky.And Messier and Anderson on the 2nd line.That is the four of the twenty best defensive forwards in the NHL in the last 50 years.

    Tikkanen and Kurri were an outscoring line with Mark Lamb as their centre.

    1) what you state above may be true but the team does not comply with the rules as presented by TSN and even further clarified on LT’s show today

    2) I was simply responding to your post of why MacT would ever be on the team – because he fits the criteria for the required checking line perfectly among Oilers history.

  136. Harpers Hair says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Harpers Hair,

    – One of the recurring themes in your menus is rich cream-based sauces: approve and recommend!

    – MSM is starting to twig into some of the things they ought to be investigating for awhile: obligations of the broadcasters to pay, sponsors, health concerns, gate, travel, etc.

    Yes.

    And yes.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

    No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

    I agree that would be dumb.

    I also agree that Holland won’t be looking at re-signing him, Smith, etc. until we are done with this season.

    I’m not sure I agree with the last sentence – they know what they have in Mike Green – I don’t see a few additional games as an Oiler making a difference in their thought-pattern on the veteran.

  138. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t disagree with your initial point about secondary players looking like stars on HoF teams.

    But to say a guy like “Petry way better than Lowe” ignores the context. Lowe wasn’t half the athlete, perhaps, and the talent might not have been the same but Lowe epitomized the exact characteristics that got Petry and Gilbert and Poti and Jultz run out of town. Bigger guys who don’t play the body don’t line up with the classic definition of Oilers players. He was a leader with a capital L even on those dynasty teams. I know I’d take Lowe over any of the above even if they may have had higher P/GP or were more flashy with the puck. If there was a more tenacious player than Vish, I’d like to hear. And don’t forget… back in those days they played pond hockey. A freewheeling style based on intuition and the ability of the players to read the game. Modern players play systems that get down to specific inches of ice. Much less creative.

    Also, I which Smith are you talking about? I put Steve Smith and Staios together as the Steady Steves line. I really miss Staios. Guy rarely ever seemed to make a mistake, even if he just got the job done. Could block shots with the best of them, and put up some points too. Actually, come to think about it — Klefbom would look fantastic beside Staios. (Edited my all time lineup above to reflect that fact.)

    By the way, Klefbom isn’t applying for the Foglin role, that would be Larsson (per John Short on Gregor’s show).

    I do understand your points, but largely disagree. Also, I think you missed an important bullet point about the selection criteria:

    “– Lines and pairs are put together because they fit together, not because they are necessarily the first, second and third best at their positions”

  139. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Weight >>> Horcoff >> MacT

  140. jp says:

    defmn: If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

    No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

    And until he has a better idea of the economic landscape going forward.

  141. Harpers Hair says:

    Looks like a June draft based on points percentage and negotiations over conditional picks…per Friedman.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

  142. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    – Good points. I just don’t think that Lowe, MacT, Smith, Huddy, Foligno, Gregg were exceptional players. Nor do I think they were the best in the history of our team.

    – They fit well into the situations that were presented to them. Without Mess, Gretz, Anderson, Kurri, Coffey, Fuhr Moog in front of them in the depth charts, winning Cups, these are just guys, and their careers not exceptional.

    – Give Steve Staois Steve Smith’s minutes and linemates, he is on the list IMO.

    – But you are right, that isn’t the criteria of the TSN list. I was making a different point: truth

    * and your bit about Lowe exemplifying the Oiler way despite his lack of talent was exactly the ethos that ran he team into the ground for a decade plus. Run by Lowe and MAcT: guys who didn’t have much hockey talent, but beleived their roles were critical on the cup winning teams, they looked at more talented players when they were in management, and got pissed off they didn’t play like they did. Those teams needed more talent, not more MacT’s and Lowes during the decade of darkness, overseen by those two.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    There’s a pretty good chance the AHL won’t play next season.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-best-case-scenario-resumption-nhl-season/

    And OP weeps.

  144. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I’m not sure I agree with the last sentence – they know what they have in Mike Green – I don’t see a few additional games as an Oiler making a difference in their thought-pattern on the veteran.

    Team fit. Chemistry. Fit with Jones or Lagesson. There are things to learn.

  145. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like a June draft based on points percentage and negotiations over conditional picks…per Friedman.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    I always assume Gary will get his way in the end.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Weight >>> Horcoff >> MacT

    Weight is my favorite player of the generation but he doesn’t fill TSN’s criteria to play on the checking line. That’s not to say that Weight wasn’t fine defensively or that the line has to be full of “pluggers” but he was a skill center who’s primary role as an Oiler was top offensive producer – he doesn’t fill the spirit of the placement as per TSN.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Its certaintly been trending towards this happening. While it seems there is quite a bit of push-back on the idea, the people that “matter the most” are for it.

    To the conversation I had a few days/nights ago re: trades with players for picks happening but the player’s name kept confidential until after the playoffs so he could keep playing with his team – not on the agenda:

    “Obviously, another concern is a June draft would prevent teams from trading players they’ll need if the season resumes. Daly indicated the league’s research of the last five draft days showed that there were 106 trades conducted and 64 would have been similarly permissible had the draft been staged prior to the end of the season.”

  148. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Those two were an artifact of their time. That MacT (a good coach in his own right) and Lowe (an okay GM for his tenure) thought the team needed more grits and crust is absolutely the origin of the nadir that led to the DoD. But they didn’t just try to stack the team with grittensity players. There were a number of soft skill players that just couldn’t cut the mustard when it mattered. Penner was talented, one of the best on the team when he wanted to be. Butter soft. Still, he was a country mile better suited and qualified than the detritus that surrounded the top lines/pairs during those years. O’Sullivan, Brule, Schremp, JFJ, Barker, Potulny, Petrell, Fraser, Belanger, et al. Too many players asked to play a role they weren’t suited for. Or the over the hill players like Whitney, Hordichuck, Eager, Sutton, Khabibulin, Bryzgalov, etc. acquired too late in their career to provide a positive impact. Too many Strudwicks, not enough Sourays. We needed more MPS+ for Perron or Gernat+ for Maroon trades from the likes of Lowe or Tambellini and they were focused on trying to get the next Lucic.

    That doesn’t change the point that the All Time Oilers team would include some secondary players from the Dynasty era. Sather didn’t keep guys around because they were good in the room, or scored with Gretz. You had to know your role, and succeed in it to stick around. Huddy, Lowe, Gregg, S. Smith… they were excellent players who played against a murderer’s row on other teams and came out ahead on the balance. That has value. This thought exercise is as much about the character of the team/players as it is the skill and stats.

    Or at least, that’s my take. YMMV.

  149. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its certaintly been trending towards this happening.While it seems there is quite a bit of push-back on the idea, the people that “matter the most” are for it.

    To the conversation I had a few days/nights ago re: trades with players for picks happening but the player’s name kept confidential until after the playoffs so he could keep playing with his team – not on the agenda:

    “Obviously, another concern is a June draft would prevent teams from trading players they’ll need if the season resumes. Daly indicated the league’s research of the last five draft days showed that there were 106 trades conducted and 64 would have been similarly permissible had the draft been staged prior to the end of the season.”

    I would think it’s a pretty good bet rosters will be frozen until after the draft and perhaps into next season.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    There’s a pretty good chance the AHL won’t play next season.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-best-case-scenario-resumption-nhl-season/

    And OP weeps.

    I posted about that one on Wednesday.

    He does say talk about it in the context of no fans and not playing being the worst case scenario – that will have a massive effect on the NHL as well and another reason why I think the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 to as late as possible (to still get 82) to try and get fans in the stands.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: I always assume Gary will get his way in the end.

    Which is essentially almost always in the best interest of the league – he’s been a boon for the sport and business of hockey!

  152. LMHF#1 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Guerin doesn’t have enough games.

    Also, Tikkanen over Smyth?Don’t make me come down there.

    Tikkanen was miles better than one of the most overrated Oilers ever who let us all down in the most important games of his career (he stunk in the ‘06 finals. STUNK).

    There I said it.

    And some of you going on about Steve Staios and such haven’t gone back and watched the older games.

    Use the down time to YouTube how good those players were.

  153. godot10 says:

    Tikkanen is one of the most underrated players in NHL history.

    Gregg was a hell of a lot better player than many here are giving him credit for. Ditto Huddy. Kevin Lowe should be in the Hall of Fame.

  154. defmn says:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/

    Friday night, after teams received the NHL’s position paper on the possibility of a June draft, there were several reactions.

    A couple were, “They’re really trying to convince us, aren’t they?”

    Some wouldn’t change from an original opinion of, “This is terrible, and I don’t support it.”

    But the biggest response was resignation: “It sure reads like, this is what we are doing… get used to it.”

    That’s what it sounds like to me.

  155. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn:
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/

    Friday night, after teams received the NHL’s position paper on the possibility of a June draft, there were several reactions.

    A couple were, “They’re really trying to convince us, aren’t they?”

    Some wouldn’t change from an original opinion of, “This is terrible, and I don’t support it.”

    But the biggest response was resignation: “It sure reads like, this is what we are doing… get used to it.”

    That’s what it sounds like to me.

    Done deal I think.

    The league needs an event.

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I posted about that one on Wednesday.

    He does say talk about it in the context of no fans and not playing being the worst case scenario – that will have a massive effect on the NHL as well and another reason why I think the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 to as late as possible (to still get 82) to try and get fans in the stands.

    The AHL is almost exclusively a gate driven league.

    No fans in the stands…no games.

  157. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Done deal I think.

    The league needs an event.

    That would be my reading as well and the NHL is not a democracy.

  158. Munny says:

    I have no idea what the criteria are, other than what’s been indicated here, but my shutdown line would be:

    Tikkanut — Arnott — Pisani

    The top 9 scoring forwards are a little more obvious. Mess played a lot of left wing for the Oil so I think that positioning should be allowed, and thus Weight can make the team.

  159. rickithebear says:

    RNH:
    When I looked at best 18 yr old Center ppg seasons in modern era adjusted for lowest annual g per gm. (2.46) of any of top 40. ( minimum 45 gm)
    Gretzky 79-80 (3.46) 1.73 ppg x (2.46/346) = 1.23 adjusted
    Crosby 1.06 adj
    Mcdavid 1.05
    RNH .81
    Hawerchuk .80
    McKinnon .74
    Francis .72
    Yzerman .70
    Carson .68
    Muller 65
    Quinn .62
    S. Gagner .58
    Bergeron .55
    Stamkos.52
    Dangle .48

    RNH 12-13 had the 39th best 19 yr old ppg Center season of modern era.

    Age 20 -25 13-14 to 17-18, PvP C. (Current rank position cap hit in bracket)

    #41C 168 EVP (#41C 5.825M)
    #77F 237 P (#77F 5.9M)

    Age 26-27 18-19 to 19-20
    #68F 77 EVP (#68F 6M)
    #36F 130P (#36F 7.15M)

    53PPP/130 = 40.8%
    PP is 2.84 times easier to generate points than at even.

    He is a 5.8 to 6M player driving a line.
    But running PvP is a premium that is added to value.
    I have no time in, looking to determine that premium.

    He will be 28 on july1, 2021.
    How long a contract?

    Created a bit of a S. storm in Detroit lions analytic community.
    Questioned the position of binary RB analysis.
    PFF position is RB have limited value.

    I looked at high % win affect from every position in a simplified multivariable way.
    Looking at actions affect when: one team, 2 teams, 0 teams have the position affect.

    Found that if a single team has a RB or Tandem that generates a high carry and yd/ carry game they win 84% of the time. 100% this yr in playoffs.

    To get a top 25 (725 yd) RB; 80% are top 75 picks,
    80% of top 10 are top 50 picks,
    The top 2 RB are in top 15 100% of the time.
    That life cycle of most RB in top 25 is 4 yrs.
    The elite RB to go beyond 6+ yrs are usually first 2 taken.

    So the best draft move you can make in NFL is take 1 of top 2 RB
    Preferably in rd 2, or take one of the top 5 ranked RB by pick 75.
    Plus 7 of the top 8 RB are 220+ lb and 3.1+ lb/in of height.

    Just finishing up the cut & material sheet For the 2 green houses my wife wants.
    She wanted to 2 Palram 8 x12 green houses, polycarbonate panels, with 2 manual vents.
    Poly carb transmission is 60% down to 25% depending on angle of Incidence.
    2 are 2500 to 5000 cdn depending on features.

    Palram corrugated roof panels let in 90% transmission even with 65% variance in angle of incidence.
    22 – 26” x 8ft. At $24 = 528
    +
    4 manual vents at $70 = 280
    Ripping 2x 8 – 8ft and 12 ft into 5 1.5” x 1.27” studs.
    35 – 8 ft, (cut into 5’ and 3’)
    15 – 12 ft.

    Already built 4 of my version of 10 medium veg trug raised beds.
    Plus 150 starter plants.

    The complexity of gardening is awesome!
    Companion plants, pH, frost and Moon phase.
    High compression planting with daily harvest and freezing and Canning.
    I expect I am going to screw a bunch of it up!
    And start to learn what is good and bad.
    52 varieties.

    I told my wife at the start of this, sheltering May reduce people’s ability to fight off infection when they return from Isolation.
    I am nervous for everyone!

    Be Well!
    Go Oilers!

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I said earlier I wasn’t interested in a discussion but…

    Here’s one good reason why Hall is worth more, I think.

    GF% WOWYs from 13-14 to 15-16 (NST only allows 3 seasons and these are the most recent). I’ve included Jordan Eberle as well as a kind of control since the 3 played together quite a lot.

    TH+RNH THnoRNH RNHnoTH
    51.2 GF% 49.1GF% 42.6GF%

    RNH+TH RNHnoTH THnoRNH (these of course are the same numbers rearranged)
    51.2 GF% 42.6GF% 49.1GF%

    TH+JE THnoJE JEnoTH
    56.8GF% 46.9GF% 44.3GF%

    RNH+JE RNHnoJE JEnoRNH
    49.2GF% 39.7GF% 37.1GF%

    And with the line tool, each player without either of the others:

    Hall
    47.5GF%

    RNH
    32.5GF%

    Eberle
    39.6GF%

    None of them on:
    35.8GF%

    All of these guys benefited from playing with each other but I think it’s pretty clear Hall stands out.

    He seems to have been the play driver of the bunch in his youth. But that’s not what the team is looking for at the moment – and I’m not sure he can drive play for 60 games per season through his mid-thirties anyhow.

  161. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He seems to have been the play driver of the bunch in his youth. But that’s not what the team is looking for at the moment – and I’m not sure he can drive play for 60 games per season through his mid-thirties anyhow.

    You asked why Hall might be worth more $$. This is probably the biggest reason.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The AHL is almost exclusively a gate driven league.

    No fans in the stands…no games.

    Ummmm, yes, I understand that.

    I’ve been speculating on my own for about 3 weeks now that the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 as they may not play with no fans at all for the 2020/21 season – there are many factors in addition to straight NHL gate revenue – including AHL and CHL ability to play.

  163. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, have you found RED Gardens yet? Look it up on YouTube.

    EDIT:
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq9U-gJ1LtDCE4W5BhEDFSQ

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