The Edge of Night

by Lowetide

The Oilers 2016 entry draft rolls along like molasses in January. Not content to be framed as the most disappointing draft of the decade (yet), the prospects captured by the team that fateful weekend keep progressing like checkers on a checker board: One space at a time.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: If Oilers draft for skill, Seth Jarvis likely to be best available
  • New Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Taylor Hall this summer?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: The results are in: How you voted in our inaugural Oilers fan survey
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers are preparing for an NHL draft in June
  • Jonathan Willis: How Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Riley Sheahan draw calls that lead to goals
  • James Mirtle: Ranking every NHL team’s salary cap situation, from best to worst
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers find Connor McDavid’s ideal winger this summer?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The two coaches who had the biggest influence on Dave Tippett
  • Jonathan Willis: The 5 reasons why the Oilers re-signed Gaetan Haas
  • Jonathan Willis: Can (and should) the Oilers trade Kris Russell?
  • Jonathan Willis: How Edmonton could have left 2010 draft with both Taylor Hall and Ryan Johansen
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
  • Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
  • Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
  • Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft

A quick note to thank everyone for joining (or re-joining) this week, it means a lot. I’ll be writing two more in this series over the next two weeks and follow it with a “what I think we’ll see on draft day” piece for The Athletic leading into May long weekend.

50-MAN LIST (39)

Ken Holland is signing these guys one day at a time, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s doing it just so I have to do this graph every day and count to 39. Diabolical! I’ll know today, if he signs Filip Berglund.

The best scouting report I’ve read on Niemelainen came from Corey Pronman (this happens often): Niemelainen was a fine two-way player for Saginaw this season. He’s a fantastic skater for a defender of his size, moving effortlessly around the ice. His skill isn’t high-end, but he moves the puck at a solid-to-average level, showing good hands and coordination for a player his size, and decent offensive instincts.

He improved a great deal this season, increasing his ice time from 13:47 a night to 19:46 per game. It’s not certain to me that Niemelainen’s increased playing time came with corresponding effectiveness. I wrote about his season here.

PROJECTED CONDORS 2019-20

I’ll suggest Niemelainen (21) is behind Lennstrom (25) in terms of depth chart, important to keep in mind the age difference. Niemelainen was highly rated in 2016 (Craig Button had him No. 36, Bob McKenzie No. 38 and Corey Pronman: No. 68) and the Oilers judged him worthy of signing.

Much of what happened between his draft day and last season performance spike suggested he would not be signed, but he earned the deal and his future is going to play out in California over the next two seasons. It gives me great pleasure to say (clears throat) the depth chart in front of him, both NHL and AHL, is considerable.

HARVEST MOON 2011

This is a tweaked harvest moon, I always found this edition to be plodding so I juiced it with some lines from the ‘top 20 prospects’ item that always follows the day after the draft concludes.

The Edmonton Oilers drafted Ryan Nugent-Hopkins yesterday, giving the club a potential elite level center for the first time in a generation. Seventeen years ago this club boasted youth and skill in abundance at the position (Weight, Arnott) but the 2000’s were a tough time at C.

With RNH and a position switch among the gifted young wingers possible, the team could have impressive depth when those items are added to Gagner, Lander and others. It’s all projection at this point, but these young men are bona fide.

I think we should expect a much different draft one year from now. The first round pick in 2012 should have exceptional value and with the blue featured heavily it could dovetail nicely for the Oilers. After that, the cluster of picks that began with Jordan Eberle will begin getting paid in full and winning will become important for the first time in years.

#1 overall- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Immediately the best prospect in the system, RNH is a vital pick in the development of this cluster. If he is in fact an elite level playmaker, the Oilers have at least four outstanding candidates for chemistry on the top line and powerplay. One of the questions we can ponder over the summer is “which winger will he develop chemistry with?” come the fall. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle will certainly get the first few at-bats, but Omark and Pääjärvi are out there and the ridiculous Hemsky remains an option.

#19 overall- D Oscar Klefbom: I talk about a complete defender a lot because they’re really important to a team’s overall success. Klefbom’s numbers in the SEL don’t tell the whole offensive story, but when facing kids his own age the young man posted impressive crooked numbers. Red Line Report had him #11 in the entire draft, saying he was “the best pure passer” of the top end blue for this year’s entry. Red Line then shifts into overdrive: “At Red Line, we believe he might ultimately become the best all-around balance of offensive upside and physical strength in this year’s class.”

#31 overall- D David Musil: I’m a little surprised by the reaction to his selection. He was safely in my top 30, so getting him at thirty-one is a nice bonus to my way of thinking. I’m all for players with a nice range of skills, but defensemen who can make the safe play have value. Musil isn’t going to bring the O, but he appears to be plenty good enough to supply the D. A safe pick. Red Line Report ranked him as the 5th best defenseman in the entire draft, one behind Klefbom.

#62 overall- G Samu Perhonen: I expect Perhonen will open up a SAAB dealership with Tommy Salo by the end of the decade but Janeway found a wormhole for Voyager to save Tuvok so maybe Stu MacGregor can find a goalie to save Steve Tambellini. Have no idea about Perhonen.

#74 overall- C Travis Ewanyk: Future role player has a nice range of skills and therefore a few slots he could fill. PF size and style, he can win faceoffs and projects as a future checking center. I don’t know that he’s going to bring enough offense to make the NHL.

#92 overall- D Dillon Simpson: I have no idea if he or a Brandon Davidson type will end up winning the day, but I think that’s the race he’s going to be involved in. Red Line Report: Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Son of former longtime NHL’er Craig Simpson has very good hockey sense and understands game situations instinctively. Had trouble getting qualilty icetime as a 17-year-old true freshman on deep, veteran defence corps of top collegiate program, but did show steady progress adjusting to the pace of play against older, stronger opponents. Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility.

#114 overall- C Tobias Rieder: Red Line Report loves him, describing Rieder as an “undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity.” Rieder impressed as a rookie in a very good league. He was taken at the point in the draft where you shouldn’t expect anything, but it’s also true that Rieder is probably a better NHL prospect than a couple of the kids Edmonton picked before him.

#122 overall- D Martin Gernat: Huge kid (6.05, 187) and considered somewhat similar to Marincin (lower ceiling) in style. Raw prospect, will take time but he’s certainly a player of interest.

#182 overall- G Frans Tuohimaa: Oilers saw him good . Has a nice SP in junior.

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BornInAGretzkyJersey

rickithebear,

Ricki, have you found RED Gardens yet? Look it up on YouTube.

EDIT:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq9U-gJ1LtDCE4W5BhEDFSQ

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: The AHL is almost exclusively a gate driven league.

No fans in the stands…no games.

Ummmm, yes, I understand that.

I’ve been speculating on my own for about 3 weeks now that the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 as they may not play with no fans at all for the 2020/21 season – there are many factors in addition to straight NHL gate revenue – including AHL and CHL ability to play.

jp

ArmchairGM: He seems to have been the play driver of the bunch in his youth. But that’s not what the team is looking for at the moment – and I’m not sure he can drive play for 60 games per season through his mid-thirties anyhow.

You asked why Hall might be worth more $$. This is probably the biggest reason.

ArmchairGM

jp: I said earlier I wasn’t interested in a discussion but…

Here’s one good reason why Hall is worth more, I think.

GF% WOWYs from 13-14 to 15-16 (NST only allows 3 seasons and these are the most recent). I’ve included Jordan Eberle as well as a kind of control since the 3 played together quite a lot.

TH+RNH THnoRNH RNHnoTH
51.2 GF% 49.1GF% 42.6GF%

RNH+TH RNHnoTH THnoRNH (these of course are the same numbers rearranged)
51.2 GF% 42.6GF% 49.1GF%

TH+JE THnoJE JEnoTH
56.8GF% 46.9GF% 44.3GF%

RNH+JE RNHnoJE JEnoRNH
49.2GF% 39.7GF% 37.1GF%

And with the line tool, each player without either of the others:

Hall
47.5GF%

RNH
32.5GF%

Eberle
39.6GF%

None of them on:
35.8GF%

All of these guys benefited from playing with each other but I think it’s pretty clear Hall stands out.

He seems to have been the play driver of the bunch in his youth. But that’s not what the team is looking for at the moment – and I’m not sure he can drive play for 60 games per season through his mid-thirties anyhow.

rickithebear

RNH:
When I looked at best 18 yr old Center ppg seasons in modern era adjusted for lowest annual g per gm. (2.46) of any of top 40. ( minimum 45 gm)
Gretzky 79-80 (3.46) 1.73 ppg x (2.46/346) = 1.23 adjusted
Crosby 1.06 adj
Mcdavid 1.05
RNH .81
Hawerchuk .80
McKinnon .74
Francis .72
Yzerman .70
Carson .68
Muller 65
Quinn .62
S. Gagner .58
Bergeron .55
Stamkos.52
Dangle .48

RNH 12-13 had the 39th best 19 yr old ppg Center season of modern era.

Age 20 -25 13-14 to 17-18, PvP C. (Current rank position cap hit in bracket)

#41C 168 EVP (#41C 5.825M)
#77F 237 P (#77F 5.9M)

Age 26-27 18-19 to 19-20
#68F 77 EVP (#68F 6M)
#36F 130P (#36F 7.15M)

53PPP/130 = 40.8%
PP is 2.84 times easier to generate points than at even.

He is a 5.8 to 6M player driving a line.
But running PvP is a premium that is added to value.
I have no time in, looking to determine that premium.

He will be 28 on july1, 2021.
How long a contract?

Created a bit of a S. storm in Detroit lions analytic community.
Questioned the position of binary RB analysis.
PFF position is RB have limited value.

I looked at high % win affect from every position in a simplified multivariable way.
Looking at actions affect when: one team, 2 teams, 0 teams have the position affect.

Found that if a single team has a RB or Tandem that generates a high carry and yd/ carry game they win 84% of the time. 100% this yr in playoffs.

To get a top 25 (725 yd) RB; 80% are top 75 picks,
80% of top 10 are top 50 picks,
The top 2 RB are in top 15 100% of the time.
That life cycle of most RB in top 25 is 4 yrs.
The elite RB to go beyond 6+ yrs are usually first 2 taken.

So the best draft move you can make in NFL is take 1 of top 2 RB
Preferably in rd 2, or take one of the top 5 ranked RB by pick 75.
Plus 7 of the top 8 RB are 220+ lb and 3.1+ lb/in of height.

Just finishing up the cut & material sheet For the 2 green houses my wife wants.
She wanted to 2 Palram 8 x12 green houses, polycarbonate panels, with 2 manual vents.
Poly carb transmission is 60% down to 25% depending on angle of Incidence.
2 are 2500 to 5000 cdn depending on features.

Palram corrugated roof panels let in 90% transmission even with 65% variance in angle of incidence.
22 – 26” x 8ft. At $24 = 528
+
4 manual vents at $70 = 280
Ripping 2x 8 – 8ft and 12 ft into 5 1.5” x 1.27” studs.
35 – 8 ft, (cut into 5’ and 3’)
15 – 12 ft.

Already built 4 of my version of 10 medium veg trug raised beds.
Plus 150 starter plants.

The complexity of gardening is awesome!
Companion plants, pH, frost and Moon phase.
High compression planting with daily harvest and freezing and Canning.
I expect I am going to screw a bunch of it up!
And start to learn what is good and bad.
52 varieties.

I told my wife at the start of this, sheltering May reduce people’s ability to fight off infection when they return from Isolation.
I am nervous for everyone!

Be Well!
Go Oilers!

Munny

I have no idea what the criteria are, other than what’s been indicated here, but my shutdown line would be:

Tikkanut — Arnott — Pisani

The top 9 scoring forwards are a little more obvious. Mess played a lot of left wing for the Oil so I think that positioning should be allowed, and thus Weight can make the team.

defmn

Harpers Hair: Done deal I think.

The league needs an event.

That would be my reading as well and the NHL is not a democracy.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I posted about that one on Wednesday.

He does say talk about it in the context of no fans and not playing being the worst case scenario – that will have a massive effect on the NHL as well and another reason why I think the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 to as late as possible (to still get 82) to try and get fans in the stands.

The AHL is almost exclusively a gate driven league.

No fans in the stands…no games.

Harpers Hair

defmn:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/

Friday night, after teams received the NHL’s position paper on the possibility of a June draft, there were several reactions.

A couple were, “They’re really trying to convince us, aren’t they?”

Some wouldn’t change from an original opinion of, “This is terrible, and I don’t support it.”

But the biggest response was resignation: “It sure reads like, this is what we are doing… get used to it.”

That’s what it sounds like to me.

Done deal I think.

The league needs an event.

defmn

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/

Friday night, after teams received the NHL’s position paper on the possibility of a June draft, there were several reactions.

A couple were, “They’re really trying to convince us, aren’t they?”

Some wouldn’t change from an original opinion of, “This is terrible, and I don’t support it.”

But the biggest response was resignation: “It sure reads like, this is what we are doing… get used to it.”

That’s what it sounds like to me.

godot10

Tikkanen is one of the most underrated players in NHL history.

Gregg was a hell of a lot better player than many here are giving him credit for. Ditto Huddy. Kevin Lowe should be in the Hall of Fame.

LMHF#1

Mr DeBakey:
BornInAGretzkyJersey,

Guerin doesn’t have enough games.

Also, Tikkanen over Smyth?Don’t make me come down there.

Tikkanen was miles better than one of the most overrated Oilers ever who let us all down in the most important games of his career (he stunk in the ‘06 finals. STUNK).

There I said it.

And some of you going on about Steve Staios and such haven’t gone back and watched the older games.

Use the down time to YouTube how good those players were.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: I always assume Gary will get his way in the end.

Which is essentially almost always in the best interest of the league – he’s been a boon for the sport and business of hockey!

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
There’s a pretty good chance the AHL won’t play next season.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-best-case-scenario-resumption-nhl-season/

And OP weeps.

I posted about that one on Wednesday.

He does say talk about it in the context of no fans and not playing being the worst case scenario – that will have a massive effect on the NHL as well and another reason why I think the NHL will want to delay the start of 2020/21 to as late as possible (to still get 82) to try and get fans in the stands.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Its certaintly been trending towards this happening.While it seems there is quite a bit of push-back on the idea, the people that “matter the most” are for it.

To the conversation I had a few days/nights ago re: trades with players for picks happening but the player’s name kept confidential until after the playoffs so he could keep playing with his team – not on the agenda:

“Obviously, another concern is a June draft would prevent teams from trading players they’ll need if the season resumes. Daly indicated the league’s research of the last five draft days showed that there were 106 trades conducted and 64 would have been similarly permissible had the draft been staged prior to the end of the season.”

I would think it’s a pretty good bet rosters will be frozen until after the draft and perhaps into next season.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Those two were an artifact of their time. That MacT (a good coach in his own right) and Lowe (an okay GM for his tenure) thought the team needed more grits and crust is absolutely the origin of the nadir that led to the DoD. But they didn’t just try to stack the team with grittensity players. There were a number of soft skill players that just couldn’t cut the mustard when it mattered. Penner was talented, one of the best on the team when he wanted to be. Butter soft. Still, he was a country mile better suited and qualified than the detritus that surrounded the top lines/pairs during those years. O’Sullivan, Brule, Schremp, JFJ, Barker, Potulny, Petrell, Fraser, Belanger, et al. Too many players asked to play a role they weren’t suited for. Or the over the hill players like Whitney, Hordichuck, Eager, Sutton, Khabibulin, Bryzgalov, etc. acquired too late in their career to provide a positive impact. Too many Strudwicks, not enough Sourays. We needed more MPS+ for Perron or Gernat+ for Maroon trades from the likes of Lowe or Tambellini and they were focused on trying to get the next Lucic.

That doesn’t change the point that the All Time Oilers team would include some secondary players from the Dynasty era. Sather didn’t keep guys around because they were good in the room, or scored with Gretz. You had to know your role, and succeed in it to stick around. Huddy, Lowe, Gregg, S. Smith… they were excellent players who played against a murderer’s row on other teams and came out ahead on the balance. That has value. This thought exercise is as much about the character of the team/players as it is the skill and stats.

Or at least, that’s my take. YMMV.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Its certaintly been trending towards this happening. While it seems there is quite a bit of push-back on the idea, the people that “matter the most” are for it.

To the conversation I had a few days/nights ago re: trades with players for picks happening but the player’s name kept confidential until after the playoffs so he could keep playing with his team – not on the agenda:

“Obviously, another concern is a June draft would prevent teams from trading players they’ll need if the season resumes. Daly indicated the league’s research of the last five draft days showed that there were 106 trades conducted and 64 would have been similarly permissible had the draft been staged prior to the end of the season.”

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
OriginalPouzar,

Weight >>> Horcoff >> MacT

Weight is my favorite player of the generation but he doesn’t fill TSN’s criteria to play on the checking line. That’s not to say that Weight wasn’t fine defensively or that the line has to be full of “pluggers” but he was a skill center who’s primary role as an Oiler was top offensive producer – he doesn’t fill the spirit of the placement as per TSN.

defmn

Harpers Hair:
Looks like a June draft based on points percentage and negotiations over conditional picks…per Friedman.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I always assume Gary will get his way in the end.

defmn

OriginalPouzar:

I’m not sure I agree with the last sentence – they know what they have in Mike Green – I don’t see a few additional games as an Oiler making a difference in their thought-pattern on the veteran.

Team fit. Chemistry. Fit with Jones or Lagesson. There are things to learn.

Harpers Hair

There’s a pretty good chance the AHL won’t play next season.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-best-case-scenario-resumption-nhl-season/

And OP weeps.

Kinger_Oil.redux

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

– Good points. I just don’t think that Lowe, MacT, Smith, Huddy, Foligno, Gregg were exceptional players. Nor do I think they were the best in the history of our team.

– They fit well into the situations that were presented to them. Without Mess, Gretz, Anderson, Kurri, Coffey, Fuhr Moog in front of them in the depth charts, winning Cups, these are just guys, and their careers not exceptional.

– Give Steve Staois Steve Smith’s minutes and linemates, he is on the list IMO.

– But you are right, that isn’t the criteria of the TSN list. I was making a different point: truth

* and your bit about Lowe exemplifying the Oiler way despite his lack of talent was exactly the ethos that ran he team into the ground for a decade plus. Run by Lowe and MAcT: guys who didn’t have much hockey talent, but beleived their roles were critical on the cup winning teams, they looked at more talented players when they were in management, and got pissed off they didn’t play like they did. Those teams needed more talent, not more MacT’s and Lowes during the decade of darkness, overseen by those two.

Harpers Hair

Looks like a June draft based on points percentage and negotiations over conditional picks…per Friedman.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-daly-state-case-early-june-draft-memo-sent-teams/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

jp

defmn: If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

And until he has a better idea of the economic landscape going forward.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

OriginalPouzar,

Weight >>> Horcoff >> MacT

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Kinger_Oil.redux,

I don’t disagree with your initial point about secondary players looking like stars on HoF teams.

But to say a guy like “Petry way better than Lowe” ignores the context. Lowe wasn’t half the athlete, perhaps, and the talent might not have been the same but Lowe epitomized the exact characteristics that got Petry and Gilbert and Poti and Jultz run out of town. Bigger guys who don’t play the body don’t line up with the classic definition of Oilers players. He was a leader with a capital L even on those dynasty teams. I know I’d take Lowe over any of the above even if they may have had higher P/GP or were more flashy with the puck. If there was a more tenacious player than Vish, I’d like to hear. And don’t forget… back in those days they played pond hockey. A freewheeling style based on intuition and the ability of the players to read the game. Modern players play systems that get down to specific inches of ice. Much less creative.

Also, I which Smith are you talking about? I put Steve Smith and Staios together as the Steady Steves line. I really miss Staios. Guy rarely ever seemed to make a mistake, even if he just got the job done. Could block shots with the best of them, and put up some points too. Actually, come to think about it — Klefbom would look fantastic beside Staios. (Edited my all time lineup above to reflect that fact.)

By the way, Klefbom isn’t applying for the Foglin role, that would be Larsson (per John Short on Gregor’s show).

I do understand your points, but largely disagree. Also, I think you missed an important bullet point about the selection criteria:

“– Lines and pairs are put together because they fit together, not because they are necessarily the first, second and third best at their positions”

OriginalPouzar

defmn: If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

I agree that would be dumb.

I also agree that Holland won’t be looking at re-signing him, Smith, etc. until we are done with this season.

I’m not sure I agree with the last sentence – they know what they have in Mike Green – I don’t see a few additional games as an Oiler making a difference in their thought-pattern on the veteran.

Harpers Hair

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Harpers Hair,

– One of the recurring themes in your menus is rich cream-based sauces: approve and recommend!

– MSM is starting to twig into some of the things they ought to be investigating for awhile: obligations of the broadcasters to pay, sponsors, health concerns, gate, travel, etc.

Yes.

And yes.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: I have the two of the three best checking wingers of the last 50 years on a line with Gretzky.And Messier and Anderson on the 2nd line.That is the four of the twenty best defensive forwards in the NHL in the last 50 years.

Tikkanen and Kurri were an outscoring line with Mark Lamb as their centre.

1) what you state above may be true but the team does not comply with the rules as presented by TSN and even further clarified on LT’s show today

2) I was simply responding to your post of why MacT would ever be on the team – because he fits the criteria for the required checking line perfectly among Oilers history.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Harpers Hair,

– One recurring themes in your menus is rich cream-based sauces: approve and recommend!

– MSM is starting to twig into some of the things they ought to be investigating for awhile: obligations of the broadcasters to pay, sponsors, health concerns, gate, travel, etc.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– A lot of our All Star team is comprised of secondary players who played on teams that had incredible talent

– while Lowe MaCT smith Buchberger were all fine complimentary players, they were replaceable by many of their contemporaries.

– Fans conflate winning with good players. Those guys took advantage of the situation. Good for them. They are “great” by association. But our team had many forwards and D better than those: they just happened to play on shittier teams.

– For instance give Staois the same role as Smith he does same. Petry > Lowe. Hall v Anderson: discuss. Arnott where? Klef > Foligno. Weight/Nuge as shut down C way better than MacT

– Playing on cup winning teams with stud line mates, doens’t make a secondary player great IMO

Harpers Hair

So, it’s Friday night…steak night at the Hair household.

Steak with Creamy Garlic Parmesan Sauce.

The steak:

Place a 10-to-12-inch cast-iron skillet in the oven and heat the oven to 500 degrees F. Bring the steak to room temperature.

When the oven reaches temperature, remove the skillet and place on the stove over high heat for 5 minutes. Coat the steak lightly with butter and sprinkle both sides with a generous pinch of salt. Grind on black pepper. (we use Keg Steak Seasoning for this.)

Immediately place the steak in the middle of the hot, dry skillet. Cook 30 seconds without moving. Turn with tongs and cook another 30 seconds, then put the pan straight into the oven for 2 minutes.

Flip the steak and cook for another 2 minutes. (This time is for medium-rare steak. If you prefer medium, add a minute to both of the oven turns.)

Remove the steak from the skillet, cover loosely with foil and rest for 2 minutes. Serve whole or slice thin and fan onto plate.

The sauce:

2 Tbsp
oil

1 Tbsp
butter

3 – 4 cloves
garlic, minced

1 Tbsp
flour

1 c
heavy cream

1/2 c
Beef broth, for whichever meat you’re serving the sauce with

salt & cracked black pepper to taste

1/2 c
fresh grated parmesan

2 oz
cream cheese

In a medium saucepan, melt butter with oil. Add the garlic and saute for a minute or two. Add the flour and cook for about 1 more minute.

Pour in the broth and heavy cream and bring to a slow boil and whisk until thickened. Whisk in the cream cheese and Parmesan until smooth and creamy.

Pour over steak and…

Enjoy!

duct tape and foil

OriginalPouzar: How would that scenario lead to the owners as a group wanting to throw more money at the players, money that leaves the system?

But less money near term which is where the bigger problem may lie. Contracts are guaranteed so the money will be paid, where compliance buyout or escrow is better for owners is unclear until level of escrow is known. If things got really bad you could buy out Neal and run with 22 and save almost 4 million per year until the contract expires. Then it would cost you $1.95 for the duration of buy-out. You don’t necessarily have to replace Neal. Nobody talking about the impact of cap floor staying the same on low budget teams.

OriginalPouzar

NBA Update:

Silver and most high ranking officials want the season completed and the championship given out.

Las Vegas and Disney’s Wild World of Sports contemplated for quarantine locations.

15K tests required – manufacturers can guarantee those tests but not that they’d be available to the public

2020/21 could be delayed to December and go to August

Owners call talked about the delayed season – gives the NBA more time and more dates for fans in the arenas and they may want to delay the start of the season even if they don’t need to (i.e. if they cancel the rest of this season).

pdaouster

godot10: Are those players going to be playing any hockey this year.Can the CHL operate with empty buildings? The development pipeline will likely be significantly impacted by Covid.

What a great opportunity to skip this draft and move the draft year to 19 years old.

jp

ArmchairGM:
Lowetide:

Regarding your “sign Hall” article over at the Athletic, what I don’t get is why are you discussing the Hall contract at $8.5M x 7 and Nugent-Hopkins at $6.5M x 4? They have nearly equal production, Nuge is nearly 2 years younger, plays center if needed and is one of the best in the league on the PK.

Here’s what I mean about production. Since Hall tends to get injured more often, he doesn’t produce elite boxcars. For instance in the past 3 seasons combined Hall is 50 in the NHL in points, tied with Dadonov and Schenn. Here are his stats compared to Nuge’s:

Past 3 years
TH: 66-116-182
RNH: 74-104-178

Past 4 years
TH: 86-149-235
RNH: 92-129-221

Past 6 years
TH: 126-212-338
RNH: 128-183-311

So you might think you’re adding another Draisaitl-level player, but you aren’t. You’re adding a Nuge-level player who can’t play center and doesn’t PK.

I don’t understand why you think Hall is worth 30% more for 75% longer.

I said earlier I wasn’t interested in a discussion but…

Here’s one good reason why Hall is worth more, I think.

GF% WOWYs from 13-14 to 15-16 (NST only allows 3 seasons and these are the most recent). I’ve included Jordan Eberle as well as a kind of control since the 3 played together quite a lot.

TH+RNH THnoRNH RNHnoTH
51.2 GF% 49.1GF% 42.6GF%

RNH+TH RNHnoTH THnoRNH (these of course are the same numbers rearranged)
51.2 GF% 42.6GF% 49.1GF%

TH+JE THnoJE JEnoTH
56.8GF% 46.9GF% 44.3GF%

RNH+JE RNHnoJE JEnoRNH
49.2GF% 39.7GF% 37.1GF%

And with the line tool, each player without either of the others:

Hall
47.5GF%

RNH
32.5GF%

Eberle
39.6GF%

None of them on:
35.8GF%

All of these guys benefited from playing with each other but I think it’s pretty clear Hall stands out.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Mr DeBakey,

I noticed that about Guerin, so I added Ebs instead. At some point you’ve got to be a threat to score… EDIT: Perhaps Pisani is the better *fit on a more defensively minded line. I just think that Ebs is the threat on the line who opens up space for the other two that it would work well. And he didn’t always avoid the tough areas either, that was a trend that happened late in his tenure with the team. Unfortunately.

And as much as I loved Smytty — and I did (do) — I was always a big Tikkanen fan. I loved how he got under the opposition’s skin. Responsible without the puck. And he could score too. Big part of why I wanted Turtle in ’16.

OriginalPouzar

There is the end of the line: The Canadian Professional Chuckwagon Association has suspended its 2020 season – is nothing sacred?

Mr DeBakey

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

Guerin doesn’t have enough games.

Also, Tikkanen over Smyth? Don’t make me come down there.

Harpers Hair

PPS.

If multiple players succumb to the plague…we’re all set.

Good grief.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Using the TSN criteria. The first and fourth lines could individually or alternatively function as your shutdown line… all while putting the biscuit in the basket. I don’t see the need for pure grinders here… plenty of talented Oilers were adept at sawing off when the game was tight. To say guys like MacT and Bucky were better choices (than, say, Weight or Guerin) is like saying Kopitar, Bergeron or Datsyuk couldn’t play in a shutdown role because they’re talented scorers. My guess is that TSN added that criteria to handicap the dynasty teams so there’s an appearance of a bit more level playing field, or to account for different eras.

Nuge – Gretzky – Kurri
Hall – Messier – Anderson
Draisaitl – McDavid – Hemsky
Tikkanen – Weight – Eberle

Coffey – Huddy
Lowe – J. Smith
Klefbom – Staios

Fuhr
Ranford

Smyth

The Close But No Ciger Squad:
Simpson – Arnott – Guerin
Niinimaa – Visnovski
Joseph

pts2pndr

Yeti: How the hell are you going to fit that under the cap?

Use what they got payed during their prime.?

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Of course, its possible – for sure but, for now, I believe its intel in to their thought process and the circumstances at the time make that belief stronger:

I anticipated Green was acquired as a depth guy – to be 6/7 on the depth chart and injury cover for the stretch run and the playoffs but not only did he play right away after travelling to me the team (and Benning was healthy scratched) but he played on back to back nights and get 2nd pairing minutes on the 2nd game.

The useage was a tell to me – I could be totally wrong.

If the Oilers trade Larsson and try to play Green in the top 4 I would see that as a really dumb thing to do. I don’t imagine we’ll see any action on his contract until the Oilers’ season comes to a close one way or the other.

No reason for Holland to make any decision until they have seen more of him.

OriginalPouzar

This is interesting given the verbal out there that the Oilers were going to pick Sergachev:

NHL News
@puck_report2
Calgary #Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk tells OverDrive that he thought he would be picked 4th by the Edmonton Oilers in 2016, but once Pierre-Luc Dubois went 3rd overall he saw the #LetsGoOilers throw the jersey under the table and changed the nameplate… to Jesse Puljujarvi.

Either way, damn Tkachuk would make this team good……

Mr DeBakey

Honestly it’s difficult to imagine a better team being created than this one.

Gotta disagree with you there, Normie.
The selected defense is a gong show.
Fogolin was a middlin NHLer
Gregg was a 3rd pairing D [2nd PP unit]

Al Hamilton
Boris Mironov
Eric Brewer
Janne Niinimaa
Jeff Petry
Luke Richardson
Oscar Klefbom
Are ALL better than both, and about half of them better than Smith too.

Did I ever tell you about the time I watched Gregg pitch for he Alberta Junior Selects against a touring Japanese team?

Up front Hall has to be ahead of Simpson and Horcoff would eat MacTavish’s lunch [If Tikkanen can be considered shutdown, ditto for Horcoff.]

OriginalPouzar

Its interesting that Lennstrom got the max ELC contract (not including bonus structure) for $925K but Berglund came in a bit less.

Yes, I know UFA vs. RFA (essentially – they had his rights) but Berglund could have been a UFA in a month.

Good job Kenny the grinder!
—————
The #LetsGoOilers signed ’16 3rd Rnd Pick 22 y/o RD Filip Berglund to 2 year ELC.

Yr 1: $700K Base, $92.5K Signing Bonus, $132.5K GP Bonus
Yr 2: $750K Base, $92.5K SB, $82.5K GP Bonus

Cap Hit $815.7K, AAV 925K

20P in 52 SHL GP.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Because the rules required a “checking line”.

I have the two of the three best checking wingers of the last 50 years on a line with Gretzky. And Messier and Anderson on the 2nd line. That is the four of the twenty best defensive forwards in the NHL in the last 50 years.

Tikkanen and Kurri were an outscoring line with Mark Lamb as their centre.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Take a look at the depth chart.

He’s blocked for years.

and does that block Oilers fans from learning about their new asset?

P.S. the same reason Berglund wouldn’t sign – posted as fact, irrefutable fact, and doubled down on as fact.

P.S.S. the player is signed to an ELC which is, by definition a 2-way contact which, by definition, has a max AHL salary of $70K. I’m of the opinion that the player is coming across confident in his abilities and ready to compete.

He is highly likely solid depth on the left side so that Sammy doesn’t need to be rushed if multiple injuries happen and it should be presumed that Kris Russell is not on contract with the Oilers when the next season commences, whenever that may be.

OriginalPouzar

MushedPeas:
Took a stab:

Mess – Gretz – Kurri
Guerin – Weight – Anderson
Drai – McD – Hemmer
Tik – MacT – Rosie

Coffee – Huddy
S. Smith – Gator
Lowe – BoBo

Fuhr – Billy

Smyth

Almost took Rolli over Fuhr, Marchant over Mac T. Thought about Manson, and think there must be Oiler blue I’m forgetting.

Nice team but Guerin missed the games played cut-off.

Roli wouldn’t have qualified either and, if we are going with any non-qualified goalie, its got to be Cujo, no?

Not to mention, Roli is so far down the list of Oilers goalies – I don’t care about his .916 one year – he was the king of the awful goal at the worst time. I know many think the world of Roli but he was not a plus goalie – got damn hot for 3 rounds hough.

If we are replacing a D, I’d have to go with Mironov well before Charlie.

If we are replacing the checking center, I’d have to give Horc some love.

Woodguy v2.0

stephen sheps: Not much to argue with here, but as good as Hall is, I don’t think he makes my roster over Craig Simpson. Hard to leave the guy with the highest career sh% of all time off the list.

11-99-17
18-39-9
29-97-83
10-10-25

7-22
4-21 (either Gregg or Gator – they both wore 21!)
5-2

31
30

94 (Foundational)

I tweeted this in a convo with RiversQ:

It killed me not to get Simpson on there

Hall drove play and had good pts/gm

Simpson scored a ton. Net front on PP1

He played with 2 Hall of Fame in Messier and Anderson so he wasn’t driving the line.

High, high end player who I liked a lot.

If he played to 35 he’d be in the HOF too.