Chinook Wind

by Lowetide

NHL executives rarely go public on disagreements, even years later. Fortunately, we are gifted with brain power, so when Todd McLellan kept excluding Reinhart from his starting lineup, and Peter Chiarelli kept talking about his being ready, it didn’t take a rocket surgeon to call Houston.

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THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

Reinhart scored the overtime winner but it was Laurent Brossoit and Jujhar Khaira who got the recall a few days later.

REINHART, CHIARELLI AND MCLELLAN

Peter ChiarelliWe’ve got 8 or 9 D who are challenging. I believe he is (ready), yeah. What I saw from him in the Memorial Cup. I know his year last year wasn’t great and there’s reasons behind that and that really is—not excuses—but there are reasons that explain it. But what I saw in the Memorial Cup is that you’ve got a player here who can dominate, that can lug the puck, and that can make plays. And for a bigger sized man, he can move well, and I would expect him to be in the top 4 at some point.” (To Bob McKenzie, summer 2015)

Todd McLellan“Griffin has to improve his game in every area to be a National Hockey Leaguer. He has to get stronger, his (defensive) reads. He has to get down into the American League and understand that because he’s got work to do to get back here. That was the message delivered to him and he accepted it, well.” Source (via Jim Matheson, October 2016)

RED LINE AND THE 2011 DRAFT

Red Line Report has been hammering home quality scouting reports since forever. A good report should have you agreeing five years after the draft, and all of those words from the original report should have color and shade and nuance. Here’s Red Line from 2011.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, No. 1 overall. Nugent-Hopkins has the highest offensive upside and is the most potent playmaker of the bunch. He’ll struggle to handle the physicality of the NHL over a grueling 82-game season since his current walking around weight is a slightly built 163 pounds. But he is gritty and willing to battle in traffic and stand up for himself, so he’ll eventually get there.

Oscar Klefbom, No. 19 overall. He’s the most overlooked of the top prospects. He already makes pro style passes — crisp and with touch — and excels at breaking the trap with tremendous stretch passes through the neutral zone, showing great vision. All this comes wrapped in a 6-3, 196-pound package, Klefbom has really stepped up the physical aspect of his game over the last 12 months.

David Musil, No. 31 overall. David has excellent size and strength and plays a rugged brand of hockey. He’s got good hockey sense in all three zones. Maintains great gap control, always squares up to the puckhandler. Good laterally, but first step and straightaway speed are average. Is not good as either a PP quarterback or trigger-man— has weak shot, makes poor decisions in puck distribution.

Samu Perhonen, No. 62 overall. He has the excellent size and athleticism NHL scouts crave, looks every bit the part of today’s modern butterfly goalie. But he plays way too hyper a style for our liking with a lot of wasted movement. He overcommits on everything near his crease. He also lacks any sense of anticipation for developing plays. We suspect he’ll be taken fairly high on his very projectable size/athleticism combination, but he’ll require years of refining and technique work with a good goalie coach to realize his potential.

Travis Ewanyk, No. 74 overall. The quintessential power checking centre. Plays with a mean, nasty, chippy edge. Understands the defensive side of game and positions himself between the puck and his check – very solid technically. Strong skater with excellent balance and power in his stride. Responsible in all his assignments. Key penalty killer. Not offensively creative.

Dillon Simpson, No. 92 overall. Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility. Tentative to do anything offensively and always has one foot back on defence. Doesn’t see the ice well and hurries to get the puck off his stick. Makes sharp defensive reads and is rarely out of position.

Tobias Rieder, No. 114 overall. Undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaker. Has decent speed, lacks the explosive first step burst. Super soft hands and slick with the puck in tight. Sees the ice very well and can saucer touch passes through traffic off either side of the blade. Average shot. Anticipates developing plays, stepping in to intercept passes and start quick counterattacks in transition.

That’s an accurate description of every player listed here, Red Line anticipated some of the future issues facing each player. RLR had Nuge No. 1, Klefbom No. 11, Musil No. 17, Perhonen No. 6 goalie, Ewanyk No. 64, Simpson No. 74, Rieder No. 58. Put another way, Red Line liked Edmonton’s 2011 draft picks earlier than the Oilers picked them.

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first five years: 313, 77-145-222 [.709]
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins next four years: 291, 92-129-221 [.759]

Puck IQ doesn’t go all the way back to Nuge’s rookie year, but by 2014-15 (age 21) he was facing more tough competition than other centers. In the period beginning 2016-17 (four years), he is averaging 73, 23-32-55 (compared to Hall’s 2015+ numbers mentioned yesterday, 66 games, 20-38-58). RLR’s point about size certainly had an impact. Grade: B.

  • Oscar Klefbom first five years: 107, 7-28-35 [.327]
  • Oscar Klefbom next four years: 271, 27-94-121 [.446]

Klefbom was either Edmonton’s best defenseman or trending that way since 2016. He’s a complete player and when he’s less than 100 percent the Oilers suffer no matter who replaces him. A home run pick where he was chosen. Offensively, his numbers over the last four seasons (average is 68, 7-24-31) are impressive. Defensively, he has faced elite competition successfully for many years. Grade: A.

  • Tobias Rieder first five years: 154, 27-31-58 [.377]
  • Tobias Rieder next four years: 280, 32-48-80 [.286]

Rieder’s first few years saw him facing elite competition while also delivering more offense than one might expect from a complementary player in this role. The most recent seasons have seen him fade offensively and struggle at times in his two-way role. He remains a tremendous fourth-round pick, Edmonton’s best since Shawn Horcoff (with Erik Gustafsson and Caleb Jones as recent challengers). Grade: A.

The 2011 draft was Edmonton’s second best of the decade (2015) and shines like a diamond. I would rank 2011 as the Oilers best draft since 1993 (Jason Arnott, Miro Satan, David Vyborny).

JOEL PERSSON

He has signed back in the SHL. It does impact the Oilers, who just dropped in to see what condition the conditional pick was in. So Edmonton’s conditional pick is now zero.

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LMHF#1

jp: I never watched him play as a Jr but he was a WHL all-star and the WHL playoff MVP in his last year.

I watched him. Many times.

He was massively overrated. Especially as an NHL prospect.

Thus – the accolades.

Go look at the numbers for his teams.

jp

LMHF#1:
Reinhart is the prototype for the classic, overrated, large WHL defenceman. The lower grade version is this guy: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116161 who has now had a better career than Reinhart.

If you watched him closely with the Oil Kings – he was constantly lazy and not improving. He also wasn’t even the best defenceman on his own team. The way people talked about this guy was absolutely ridiculous. If he measured up to what they said, he should have been far and away the star of that team. He wasn’t even close.

It didn’t help him to get the full Oilers coaching treatment afterward…but he was never going to be what NHL scouts thought. There’s still WAY too much old school in that group to properly grade a defenceman who grows early and can get by on the combination of size and playing for a good team in the WHL.

I never watched him play as a Jr but he was a WHL all-star and the WHL playoff MVP in his last year. It was a terrible trade but it seems he was quite a good defenseman in the WHL.

Clarkenstein

leadfarmer:
Mirtle is saying that playoffs in the summer may be the new normal?
What is he smoking
No one wants to watch hockey in the summer in the US

Or the Winter evidently.

LMHF#1

Reinhart is the prototype for the classic, overrated, large WHL defenceman. The lower grade version is this guy: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116161 who has now had a better career than Reinhart.

If you watched him closely with the Oil Kings – he was constantly lazy and not improving. He also wasn’t even the best defenceman on his own team. The way people talked about this guy was absolutely ridiculous. If he measured up to what they said, he should have been far and away the star of that team. He wasn’t even close.

It didn’t help him to get the full Oilers coaching treatment afterward…but he was never going to be what NHL scouts thought. There’s still WAY too much old school in that group to properly grade a defenceman who grows early and can get by on the combination of size and playing for a good team in the WHL.

PennersPancakes

OriginalPouzar:
We are repeatadly told that the jump from the CHL to the AHL is often bigger (and harder) than the jump from the AHL to the NHL.

To pay massive value for star WHL d-man who struggled mightily in his first year in the AHL – partially due to skating, well, the amateur and pro procurement teams should have heeded the above premise, as it turns out.

As an average, joe I was worried because of how far down the islanders depth chart he was AND by the extravagant pay.

As a hockey player, I remember a beer league teammate who played against Reinhart in the WHL (same potential draft year) who ripped into that trade. Kids arent perfect but to add fuel to the scouting fire how can scouts rave about a player and draft him 4th overall while fellow competitors laugh at the same thought.

OriginalPouzar

who: Great post.
I think a lot of posters like Benning and Archibald because they see them as underdogs. The little engines that could. Plus we got them for free.
I’m impressed by the careers they have carved out, given their skill sets. They are good players. But they are very replaceable.

Were they successful 6th round draft picks?

That’s the conversation.

OriginalPouzar

who: How about we leave Kassian where he is until JP actually earns a spot on the top line?
I’m rooting for him, but he’s got a ways to go.

Well of course given there is no reasonable likelihood of Jesse playing for the Oilers next season.

The conversation shifted to Jesse’s production with and without McDavid, etc. and, given the data, it was simply an hockey forum conversation about what if Jesse came back and showed that the 400 minute sample size of numbers with McDavid was not an aborage – having Jesse be able to fill 1RW would be a boon.

Noone says its going to happen.

Just talking in an online community.

OriginalPouzar

Georges: The missing variable in your thinking is competition. It doesn’t matter where you pick the player. They all play in the same league and get measured on the same scale. Sixth round picks don’t get handicaps.

I know the goings on in the AHL interest you and I believe you see the moves and developments as part of the larger story of our NHL team. And because you’re watching closely, you’re going to have a strong take on things, i.e., this call up is a good bet to do well and stick, this prospect is going to pop…

I’m focused on the thresholds a player has to meet to outperform his peers in the NHL. If he can outperform his peers, he’ll make his team better than a replacement level alternative. That seems straightforward. If he can’t outperform his peers, the best you can hope for is he treads water. If he treads water, then winning has to come from somewhere else.

Archibald, 27, has scored 0.31 Pts/GP in 183 GP for his career. He had a better than career average scoring year this season. In 19-20, 580 forwards played at least one game in the league. The median forward scored 0.35 Pts/GP. Archibald was close at 0.34.

But a quarter of those 580 forwards played 20 or fewer games. Either because of injury or because they weren’t good enough to take a regular job from someone else. If you check NST, you’ll see these guys play losing 5v5 minutes as a group. Regular players will win minutes playing against this group. HC’s know this, so these “irregulars” get short tryouts, not a lot of room to make mistakes, not a lot of time or opportunity to find their scoring touch.

If you take this group out of the equation, the median for the forwards who are left jumps up to 0.42 Pts/GP. So, as a regular himself, Archibald scored less than the typical regular forward. That means for him to come out even, the team had to play better than regular defense when he was on the ice. We know this didn’t happen; the team was outscored with Archibald on the ice.

I made a mistake when I said 0.4 Pts/GP is the threshold for hitting the top quartile. It’s actually 0.5 Pts/GP. That is, a quarter of the forwards who were drafted between 2000 and 2016 and who played at least 20 games in the NHL have reached that scoring mark for their career.

If Archibald is a hit, then around half the regular forwards playing in the league are hits. If that’s OK with you, that’s OK with me.

Benning is a great guy. His numbers are pure gold. I would happily make an exception for him because all he does is play (not a lot of) winning minutes. Not a clue how he does it. But he does.

I selected a TOI/GP threshold that only a quarter of defensemen in the 2000 to 2016 draft classes achieved (with the usual caveat about playing the minimum 20 games in the NHL). I also included defensemen who play fewer minutes but score at a typical forward pace, which is well above what typical defensemen produce.

If defensemen (other than Benning), don’t meet either threshold, I’m OK classifying them as a miss. Because, they’re not good enough to cover more than their fair share of minutes and they’re not good enough to boost the offense when they’re out there. Their minutes have to be carefully handled to make sure the team doesn’t give away an edge to its opponent. You’re covering up a weakness here.

I do like Benning. I wonder how he does it. I believe he’s under appreciated for what he does: win 5v5 minutes year in, year out. A lot of that comes from looking at the same numbers I’m using to define hit and miss. Doesn’t play enough minutes. Doesn’t boost offense. Why do we have this guy again? That heuristic works much more often than not.

THank you for your response.

I understand your premise on “a hit” but I don’t agree with it.

Draft position, or handicap, as you put it, is a huge factor in assessing if a draft (or a draft pick) end up being successful. Finding useful NHL players in the later round, given the minute chances that 6th/7th round picks become such a thing, equates to success in my opinion. Both Matt Benning and Josh Archibald are useful NHL players and they are “hits” in my mind notwithstanding they don’t meet the criteria you explained above. If they were drafted 26th and 42nd overall and not in the 6th round, the assessment, to me, would be different.

OriginalPouzar

As per Reid Wilkins, Oilers might not quite be ready to open up for voluntary skates today.

Lots of protocols to comply with and ensure are in place.

who

Georges: The missing variable in your thinking is competition. It doesn’t matter where you pick the player. They all play in the same league and get measured on the same scale. Sixth round picks don’t get handicaps.

I know the goings on in the AHL interest you and I believe you see the moves and developments as part of the larger story of our NHL team. And because you’re watching closely, you’re going to have a strong take on things, i.e., this call up is a good bet to do well and stick, this prospect is going to pop…

I’m focused on the thresholds a player has to meet to outperform his peers in the NHL. If he can outperform his peers, he’ll make his team better than a replacement level alternative. That seems straightforward. If he can’t outperform his peers, the best you can hope for is he treads water. If he treads water, then winning has to come from somewhere else.

Archibald, 27, has scored 0.31 Pts/GP in 183 GP for his career. He had a better than career average scoring year this season. In 19-20, 580 forwards played at least one game in the league. The median forward scored 0.35 Pts/GP. Archibald was close at 0.34.

But a quarter of those 580 forwards played 20 or fewer games. Either because of injury or because they weren’t good enough to take a regular job from someone else. If you check NST, you’ll see these guys play losing 5v5 minutes as a group. Regular players will win minutes playing against this group. HC’s know this, so these “irregulars” get short tryouts, not a lot of room to make mistakes, not a lot of time or opportunity to find their scoring touch.

If you take this group out of the equation, the median for the forwards who are left jumps up to 0.42 Pts/GP. So, as a regular himself, Archibald scored less than the typical regular forward. That means for him to come out even, the team had to play better than regular defense when he was on the ice. We know this didn’t happen; the team was outscored with Archibald on the ice.

I made a mistake when I said 0.4 Pts/GP is the threshold for hitting the top quartile. It’s actually 0.5 Pts/GP. That is, a quarter of the forwards who were drafted between 2000 and 2016 and who played at least 20 games in the NHL have reached that scoring mark for their career.

If Archibald is a hit, then around half the regular forwards playing in the league are hits. If that’s OK with you, that’s OK with me.

Benning is a great guy. His numbers are pure gold. I would happily make an exception for him because all he does is play (not a lot of) winning minutes. Not a clue how he does it. But he does.

I selected a TOI/GP threshold that only a quarter of defensemen in the 2000 to 2016 draft classes achieved (with the usual caveat about playing the minimum 20 games in the NHL). I also included defensemen who play fewer minutes but score at a typical forward pace, which is well above what typical defensemen produce.

If defensemen (other than Benning), don’t meet either threshold, I’m OK classifying them as a miss. Because, they’re not good enough to cover more than their fair share of minutes and they’re not good enough to boost the offense when they’re out there. Their minutes have to be carefully handled to make sure the team doesn’t give away an edge to its opponent. You’re covering up a weakness here.

I do like Benning. I wonder how he does it. I believe he’s under appreciated for what he does: win 5v5 minutes year in, year out. A lot of that comes from looking at the same numbers I’m using to define hit and miss. Doesn’t play enough minutes. Doesn’t boost offense. Why do we have this guy again? That heuristic works much more often than not.

Great post.
I think a lot of posters like Benning and Archibald because they see them as underdogs. The little engines that could. Plus we got them for free.
I’m impressed by the careers they have carved out, given their skill sets. They are good players. But they are very replaceable.

who

OriginalPouzar:
I can’t say with certainty that, if Jesse returned and was placed on 1RW, he’d mesh with McDavid and they’d win the goal share materially but 400 plus minutes with great metrics across the board is non meaningless and it shows there is a reasonable chance.

Man, the ability to move Kassian down to the middle/bottom six and add his size, speed and sill would be great for team depth.

Imagine being able to lock in Nuge, Yamamoto and a legit Puljujarvi as 3 of the top 4 wingers – Ennis, AA and options for the fourth spot, with Benson as a dark-horse and Lavoie down the road (shit, maybe even a Makismov “pops)”.

Kassian and Archie as the bottom 6 RWs and a combo of Nygard, Khaira, Ennis/AA, Benson, Neal on the left side (Chiasson only one year of term left).

How about we leave Kassian where he is until JP actually earns a spot on the top line?
I’m rooting for him, but he’s got a ways to go.

Freddy

defmn,

Fair enough. But I’m looking at it more from the perspective of “Did the Oilers make a good selection relative to who was available?” That’s how they should be graded. RHN was a good choice imo. It just wasn’t a really strong draft year relative to other years but that’s not the teams fault.

slopitch

€√¥£€^$: Jack Finley

Cant say I know much about him. Like the size/age combo. Seen some Martin Hanzal comps. I could get behind the pick and hope his offense pops!

OriginalPouzar

Georges:

From 2005 to 2016, teams have hit on about 6.5% of their skater picks in the second round or later, hit meaning they drafted a forward who scored at a 0.4 Pts/GP pace or better or they drafted a defenseman who averaged 20 minutes or more a night or scored at a typical forward pace: 0.35 Pts/GP. These are markers for top quartile performance in the NHL.

I will preface this by saying that you do fantastic work regarding the draft and related analysis – its informative and very valuable.

With that said, I don’t think I can agree with you on what constitutes “a hit” – there are too many variables and it changes as one goes deeper in the draft.

For example, Matt Benning hasn’t averaged 20 min/game (I don’t believe) but, to me, he’s absolutely a hit as a sixth round pick.

Similar, Josh Archibald has never hit 0.35 P/G but, to me, again, as a sixth round pick – a hit.

Shit, an argument can be made that if a sixth/seventh round pick ends up signing a pro contract and playing in an organization’s AHL affiliate, that’s a hit.

Death By Misadventure

€√¥£€^$,

Oh wow. A Sept 2, 2002 birthday. That makes him almost a full year younger than some of the top prospects in the draft.

Interesting prospect. Doubt he’ll be there in the third round. Considering he’s a C, right hander, late birthday, and 6.5″ suspect someone takes a shot in the first round.

Gerta Rauss
Kraz

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

I remember him always talking about how the Oilers needed to find the “straw that stirs the drink” to help them take an extra step. They seemed to have found that with Yamamoto.

Scungilli Slushy

I think JP had two problems.

One was he has a congenital hip issue that has been operated on.

The second is that he is used to freelancing which will not work in the NHL.

He doesn’t play positionally. That might work in lower leagues where a player with enough skill can dominate but JP isn’t that at the NHL level.

He has skills and hopefully feels better after surgery, but was unwilling to do what was asked.

So despite his scoring numbers, I’m not sure he’s a fit with Connor. I supported him in the past, but at some point a player without generational skill has to buck up to play in the show.

Go hard after a first or a quality G prospect or a good 3C or proper 1 RD and move on.

jp

Melman: That’s an interesting read. Based on nothing more than my Angela Landsbury sleuthing skills, until evidence to the contrary comes out I’m convinced McDavid has/had zero interest in playing with JP. We’ve known since the Ducks series Edm.’s best chance to win was running 97 & 29 on different lines. There were multiple seasons where they were out of the playoffs with a good chunk of the season left to play. Is seems bizarre that a coach would not use a 10-15 game stint at the end of a season to try and build chem with JP and 97 vs. hoping a late season zooming of Rattie by 97 is a better long term plan forthe following season. Past fancies showed they had success together. Alternatively, and equally odd is why would 97 not suggest to the coach “hey let me play with JP so we can get him Out of his funk and try and build some chem”. I get players don’t coach but a guy like 97 (or Sid, or Ovi) will have some influence over who they play with. Maybe 97 was frustrated with JP because JP pouted/stuck to himself/was too immature/dorky, who knows. Maybe JP didn’t play within the system and was not in position which irritated 97. I have no idea what it was, it just seems hard to imagine that if 97 wanted to help the team unlock JP they wouldn’t have played more together. There must be a disconnect between those 2 (and 97s pals). It would also explain JPs refusal to return even though there was a new GM and coach this past season.

I agree with you a fair bit here. I suspect that Puljujarvi has an issue with one or more of McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge/Nurse etc. Seems to be the most reasonable explanation for why he refused to return even with a new GM and coach in place.

In terms of not playing him with McDavid down the stretch each year though, I don’t think there’s much there.

In 16-17 he was sent down after 28 game (last game on Jan 5th).
In 17-18 Nuge and Rattie were mostly with McDavid as you mention. Puljujarvi was mostly with Strome plus secondary minutes with Draisaitl.
And in 18-19 Puljujarvi was injured and missed the end of the season (played his last game on Feb 15th).

So 2 of the 3 years Puljujarvi wasn’t even with the team down the stretch. The other year, sure maybe McLellan could/should have re-united them, or McDavid should have asked… I dunno. But it’s not something that happened 3 of 3 seasons.

OriginalPouzar

Also, everyone should listen to the OilCan from this past week – Strudy did a great job including talking about current issues.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t say with certainty that, if Jesse returned and was placed on 1RW, he’d mesh with McDavid and they’d win the goal share materially but 400 plus minutes with great metrics across the board is non meaningless and it shows there is a reasonable chance.

Man, the ability to move Kassian down to the middle/bottom six and add his size, speed and sill would be great for team depth.

Imagine being able to lock in Nuge, Yamamoto and a legit Puljujarvi as 3 of the top 4 wingers – Ennis, AA and options for the fourth spot, with Benson as a dark-horse and Lavoie down the road (shit, maybe even a Makismov “pops)”.

Kassian and Archie as the bottom 6 RWs and a combo of Nygard, Khaira, Ennis/AA, Benson, Neal on the left side (Chiasson only one year of term left).

jp

OriginalPouzar: If that is indeed the case then McDavid either doesn’t care about winning or needs to take a step back and think about that position.

Through three years, every metric goes up for McDavid when with Jesse as oppossed to without Jesse (CF%, FF%, GF%, xGF%, etc.).

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478402

Its only 407 minutes but that is a decent sample size and what if it is real?

If its real and JP can be added to McDavid’s RW for $1MM and Kassian can move down to play in the bottom six (over Chiasson or Neal):

Ennis (AA)/McDavid/JP
Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
Neal/Khaira/Kassian
AA (Ennis)/Sheahan/Archie

Nygard, Haas

Thanks for reminding about this. I’d forgotten how much McDavid benefitted from Puljujarvi and not just the other way around.

McDavid also scored 3.24 5v5 P/60 with Puljujarvi. Same as he scored with Draisaitl those 3 years and better than any forward aside from Caggiula with >200 minutes together (and the on ice numbers for McDavid-Caggiula were quite poor). (FWIW Benning was the only other Oiler >200 minutes that McDavid scored better with; their on ice numbers were quite good).

Yeah. A Puljujarvi return could be good.

OriginalPouzar

€√¥£€^$,

thanks.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I don’t think he’ll be a factor for NHL work in 2020-21. If he is, that’s going to be a pleasant surprise.

I agree 100% but you mentioned Broberg who also won’t be a factor – that’s why I thought the omission was a bit odd.

OriginalPouzar

Melman: That’s an interesting read. Based on nothing more than my Angela Landsbury sleuthing skills, until evidence to the contrary comes out I’m convinced McDavid has/had zero interest in playing with JP. We’ve known since the Ducks series Edm.’s best chance to win was running 97 & 29 on different lines. There were multiple seasons where they were out of the playoffs with a good chunk of the season left to play. Is seems bizarre that a coach would not use a 10-15 game stint at the end of a season to try and build chem with JP and 97 vs. hoping a late season zooming of Rattie by 97 is a better long term plan forthe following season. Past fancies showed they had success together. Alternatively, and equally odd is why would 97 not suggest to the coach “hey let me play with JP so we can get him Out of his funk and try and build some chem”. I get players don’t coach but a guy like 97 (or Sid, or Ovi) will have some influence over who they play with. Maybe 97 was frustrated with JP because JP pouted/stuck to himself/was too immature/dorky, who knows. Maybe JP didn’t play within the system and was not in position which irritated 97. I have no idea what it was, it just seems hard to imagine that if 97 wanted to help the team unlock JP they wouldn’t have played more together. There must be a disconnect between those 2 (and 97s pals). It would also explain JPs refusal to return even though there was a new GM and coach this past season.

If that is indeed the case then McDavid either doesn’t care about winning or needs to take a step back and think about that position.

Through three years, every metric goes up for McDavid when with Jesse as oppossed to without Jesse (CF%, FF%, GF%, xGF%, etc.).

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478402

Its only 407 minutes but that is a decent sample size and what if it is real?

If its real and JP can be added to McDavid’s RW for $1MM and Kassian can move down to play in the bottom six (over Chiasson or Neal):

Ennis (AA)/McDavid/JP
Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
Neal/Khaira/Kassian
AA (Ennis)/Sheahan/Archie

Nygard, Haas

€√¥£€^$

Brantford Boy:
LT on Persson: “He has signed back in the SHL. It does impact the Oilers, who just dropped in to see what condition the conditional pick was in. So Edmonton’s conditional pick is now zero.”

Considering Anaheim’s previous success and in my mind set the gold standard for developing young Defensemen this is curious, but probably as much the player’s decision as the club’s.

It is really odd that they signed 30 yr old Kodie Curran to a 2 yr contract. His most recent experience in North America was 2015-16 in the ECHL after 4 years in the AJHL and 5 seasons at USport.

If he plays a significant number of NHL games as a 30 year old, is that a testament to how far he has come or the lack of quality in the Duck organization?

€√¥£€^$

OriginalPouzar:
Edmonton and the Oilers one of only two Canadian team rinks opening for state 2 tomorrow (Toronto the other one).

From accounts 5 Oilers players are in the area and will be heading in to skate – not sure exactly who but I think Benning, Skinner, Ennis – I thought I read Chiasson as well but I might be making that up in my head.

From accounts, as of yesterday, the Oilers hadn’t had any requests from non-Oiler players in Edmonton to use the facilities.

Obviously no coaches or media but I’m thinking there will be some sort of video getting out – nothing important but it will be nice to see some of the boys on the ice together.

No Ennis, add Benson and KRussell.

Chiasson is correct.

€√¥£€^$

digger50: Of course bad trade and many knew it right then and there.

But many professionals were wrong in thier analysis. World juniors, memorial cup, made the islands out of camp in draft plus 2(?) number 4 overall. Most had him on thier draft list, hoping he would fall to them. After the trade, Willis looked at his numbers and had an encouraging article out.

As interested as I am in how we evaluate good prospects, I’m fascinated when so many scouts and professionals get it wrong. What did they miss? What was over valued or undervalued? What type of herd mentality is in play?

Same questions and similar discussion for Yak and Jo times 1000. Millions of dollars spent on evaluation, thousands of trained eyes, yet it happens to some degree every year.

I wonder what part his name played in all this.

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slopitch:
I was gonna object to Tobby Reider being an A due to lack of upside but I just spent 10 min looking at the 4th round since 2010 and there really arent a lot of hits. Ill still argue that you need to reserve A’s for a 4th rounder like Jacob Slavin and that a B is still a good result.

Now the Oilers need to convert the James Neal 3rd into a Cirelli or a Parayko ?

LT I do enjoy the draft rewind posts. Its something interesting to read while we wait of normal to return.

Jack Finley

OriginalPouzar

norm_klassen:
Speaking of buffalo saw one of those rumour sites saying the Canadians are going to trade for Eichel.
Not saying they would but man how screwed would Buffalo be ; no team has enough assets for him; you would lose that trade 100%
Buffalo management make it happen

There are assets that could make the trade work. Start with MTL’s 1st rounder this year and next, add a bit of Caufield, sprinkle in a Suzuki – not to mention the $10MM in cap space if MTL doesn’t send back any other material contract.

OriginalPouzar

Not getting the 2022 7th from Anaheim in the Persson trade is off-set by not having to give Toronto the Oilers’ 2020 7th in the Vessey trade.

OriginalPouzar

Edmonton and the Oilers one of only two Canadian team rinks opening for state 2 tomorrow (Toronto the other one).

From accounts 5 Oilers players are in the area and will be heading in to skate – not sure exactly who but I think Benning, Skinner, Ennis – I thought I read Chiasson as well but I might be making that up in my head.

From accounts, as of yesterday, the Oilers hadn’t had any requests from non-Oiler players in Edmonton to use the facilities.

Obviously no coaches or media but I’m thinking there will be some sort of video getting out – nothing important but it will be nice to see some of the boys on the ice together.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Just wanted to comment that VOR had often speculated the 2011 draft would stack up as one of the most potent drafts since 2003.

Miss that guy. Such a wealth of knowledge and a breath of fresh air with his approach to parsing data. Hope he’s okay.

defmn

Freddy:
Why a B for the selection of RNH?That suggests the Oilers could have done better. And while there are 5 or 6 pretty good other players from the first round I feel pretty comfortable that RHN is at least as good as any of them.

What are the expectations of a 1st overall pick? Does Nuge fulfill all of them?

Just my opinion but I think the ‘A’ for Hall was more suspect but maybe my expectations for a 1st overall are too high.

Freddy

Why a B for the selection of RNH? That suggests the Oilers could have done better. And while there are 5 or 6 pretty good other players from the first round I feel pretty comfortable that RHN is at least as good as any of them.

defmn

Munny: This is a great post and I often wonder the same things, including how do you evaluate how well the scouts did when failed picks are more common than successes and the difficulty of separating development from the process.Indeterminate variables are a bitch.

It would make a great question for somebody in the media to ask how individual scouts establish reputation around the league. I suspect it is all word of mouth and personal relations which seems pretty anachronistic these days for multi million dollar businesses.

Melman

ArmchairGM:
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/332985

Some comments might be of interest.

That’s an interesting read. Based on nothing more than my Angela Landsbury sleuthing skills, until evidence to the contrary comes out I’m convinced McDavid has/had zero interest in playing with JP. We’ve known since the Ducks series Edm.’s best chance to win was running 97 & 29 on different lines. There were multiple seasons where they were out of the playoffs with a good chunk of the season left to play. Is seems bizarre that a coach would not use a 10-15 game stint at the end of a season to try and build chem with JP and 97 vs. hoping a late season zooming of Rattie by 97 is a better long term plan for the following season. Past fancies showed they had success together. Alternatively, and equally odd is why would 97 not suggest to the coach “hey let me play with JP so we can get him Out of his funk and try and build some chem”. I get players don’t coach but a guy like 97 (or Sid, or Ovi) will have some influence over who they play with. Maybe 97 was frustrated with JP because JP pouted/stuck to himself/was too immature/dorky, who knows. Maybe JP didn’t play within the system and was not in position which irritated 97. I have no idea what it was, it just seems hard to imagine that if 97 wanted to help the team unlock JP they wouldn’t have played more together. There must be a disconnect between those 2 (and 97s pals). It would also explain JPs refusal to return even though there was a new GM and coach this past season.

ArmchairGM

digger50: As interested as I am in how we evaluate good prospects, I’m fascinated when so many scouts and professionals get it wrong. What did they miss? What was over valued or undervalued? What type of herd mentality is in play?

The herd mentality groupthink is why draft prospects change rankings drastically even well after their season is over. It never made sense to me, but it happens every year.

dustrock

Man I had issues with T-Mac but to suggest he’s the reason Reinhart didn’t progress is laughable to me.

The rage when the draft day trade was announced was real and justified. Reinhart was another Colton Teubert and might have been able to play in the dead puck era but he didn’t progress with the Isles and then the Knights dumped him too.

The issues about Reinhart having a tough previous year sounds like more frantic spin coming from Chiarelli, who wouldn’t have to be so defensive if he would just make an even trade once in a while.

Melman

norm_klassen:
Speaking of buffalo saw one of those rumour sites saying the Canadians are going to trade for Eichel.
Not saying they would but man how screwed would Buffalo be ; no team has enough assets for him; you would lose that trade 100%
Buffalo management make it happen

He must be highly frustrated that Buf is still spinning its tires

Munny

defmn: The question that I wonder about is how much time, money and thought is spent on evaluating who to hire as a scout.

Teams treat their lists like they are state secrets and nobody really knows their order of preference. We often commend a team for picking a guy in the third round that turned out without mentioning that the guy they took in the second round never played a game for them.

But as little as we know about the team’s preferences we usually know even less about the individuals who make up the group ofscouts. I know that when a 4th rounder makes it you hear an accolade like “Joe really pushed for him” but nothing about the duds and very little about the internal discussion and wrangling.

So how does a GM know who to hire? Is is all personal connections? Word of mouth? How does a scout prove that he told his GM or boss not to take that coke machine and that this other guy was the right pick? The team he works for knows but how does that information spread?

So while it is interesting how things go right or wrong on draft day I always wonder how a team decides who to hire in the first place when there is no record of their previous success or failure with another team?

This is a great post and I often wonder the same things, including how do you evaluate how well the scouts did when failed picks are more common than successes and the difficulty of separating development from the process. Indeterminate variables are a bitch.

leadfarmer

Mirtle is saying that playoffs in the summer may be the new normal?
What is he smoking
No one wants to watch hockey in the summer in the US

leadfarmer

norm_klassen:
Speaking of buffalo saw one of those rumour sites saying the Canadians are going to trade for Eichel.
Not saying they would but man how screwed would Buffalo be ; no team has enough assets for him; you would lose that trade 100%
Buffalo management make it happen

Unfortunately for them they no longer have Halak Ryder and a 2nd

ArmchairGM

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/332985

Some comments might be of interest.

defmn

digger50:

Millions of dollars spent on evaluation, thousands of trained eyes, yet it happens to some degree every year.

The question that I wonder about is how much time, money and thought is spent on evaluating who to hire as a scout.

Teams treat their lists like they are state secrets and nobody really knows their order of preference. We often commend a team for picking a guy in the third round that turned out without mentioning that the guy they took in the second round never played a game for them.

But as little as we know about the team’s preferences we usually know even less about the individuals who make up the group of scouts. I know that when a 4th rounder makes it you hear an accolade like “Joe really pushed for him” but nothing about the duds and very little about the internal discussion and wrangling.

So how does a GM know who to hire? Is is all personal connections? Word of mouth? How does a scout prove that he told his GM or boss not to take that coke machine and that this other guy was the right pick? The team he works for knows but how does that information spread?

So while it is interesting how things go right or wrong on draft day I always wonder how a team decides who to hire in the first place when there is no record of their previous success or failure with another team?

norm_klassen

Speaking of buffalo saw one of those rumour sites saying the Canadians are going to trade for Eichel.
Not saying they would but man how screwed would Buffalo be ; no team has enough assets for him; you would lose that trade 100%
Buffalo management make it happen