Urge for Going

by Lowetide

Stan Gilbertson had been hanging around pro hockey forever (Oakland could have had him for nothing in 1967, I think they technically had a right to claim him as a San Fransisco Seal before Boston reclaimed their players) and caught on with the Seals when Tommy Williams got hurt for the 100th time. That was 1971.

Playing on a line with a dangerously slow Wayne Carleton and bullet-fast Bobby Sheehan, Gilbertson was apparently just fast enough for Sheehan and just slow enough for Carleton. His up and down, traditional style of LW suited both just right and he landed a career at age 27. He scored 16 goals as a rookie, and hung around for six NHL seasons.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

This is from late March, after the end of the regular season. You may not agree with the grades but it’s a good refresher for a season about to be rejoined.

JOE GAMBARDELLA AS A MODERN STAN GILBERTSON

In the two seasons before Gilbertson won an NHL job, he scored 55 goals in 132 regular season games (.417 goals-per-game). In Gambardella’s most recent AHL seasons, he has scored 43 goals in 100 games (.430 goals per game).

Gambardella has good two-way ability, he was part of a fantastic forechecking line in college and his time in the AHL saw impressive even strength results in his first two seasons:

  • 2017-18: 27-28 ES GF-GA (No. 2 among regular forwards)
  • 2018-19: 47-30 ES GF-GA (No. 4 among regular forwards)
  • 2019-20: 30-48 ES GA-GA (last among regular forwards)

I’ve been tracking Gambardella since he signed, this was a tough season for him. He’s signed for another year and I would estimate that signed LW’s ahead of him are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andreas Athanasiou, James Neal, Jujhar Khaira, Joakim Nygard, Tyler Benson. Not all of those players are exclusively left wingers and several are pushing to establish themselves along with Gambardella. A big season ahead.

ASKED AND ANSWERED

The following appeared on June 14, 2010. It was a call and response discussion of the 2010 draft in the days before.

Will the Oilers trade the #1 pick? No. They “might” make a side deal with the Bruins to stay away from Hall and select Seguin #1 but even that seems a stretch. Either way, the Oilers have a chance to pick #1 overall for the first time in their history and it is a major, historic and symbolic event. Kind of like the moon landing, that sort of thing. In the words of 20th century poet John Lydon: “getting rid of the albatross; I know you very well, you are unbearable.”

Who will they choose? Taylor Hall. These two are equal talents and the things that make Hall more attractive (track record of winning big games, championship resume, fame) are all things the Oilers can wrap themselves around in the darkest period of their NHL history. These are the Edmonton Oilers, not the Mobro 4000. The long haul doesn’t mean avoiding the NHL ready player, and the choice is so close that Hall gets the nod based on intangibles.

Intangibles? I thought you didn’t believe in that stuff? I don’t. However, when all things are equal and you have to decide between two talents, flipping a coin seems a little vague.

What else will happen on day one? The Oilers will trade into the first round (middle) and choose a defenseman. My guess is that the early 2nd rd pick and perhaps a selection from next year or an Andrew Cogliano will also be included, but they’re going to address the future blue at the draft. They have no choice.

What about day 2? The Nashville (Grebs) pick starts day 2 (if the Oilers trade up in rd 1) and one expects the Oilers will draft a forward with offensive skills. Maybe another Lander if available, but they could use more skill and this draft is deep.

Then what? Then it gets fun: The Oilers do unusual work in the third-fifth rounds. This is the place Edmonton drafts Coke Machines and obscure Euro’s; its kind of like being a Doors fan and listening to the Soft Parade for the first time. We could see a goalie or a coke machine or a Croatian. There’s no real way to predict the Edmonton Oilers outside the top 50 overall.

Which player on the Oilers list is most likely to be traded at the draft? Riley Nash. Moreau, Nilsson and O’Sullivan can be bought out, and the Oilers management group has mentioned it is an option. Why pay anything for struggling role players when you can wait until they’re bought out and are a bargain? Souray won’t be traded until after July 1.

RILEY NASH? HA-HA! He has no value! On the contrary, he’s going to be a bargain. The Oilers are either frustrated by his career path or his progress (or both) and because we know it other NHL teams know it. If I’m Boston, he’s a guy I trade for because the price is low at this time. Plus he’s closer to being NHL ready than most of the kids in this draft and might sign right away with another team.

You’re just making stuff up now. No. I’m not. Smart organizations never betray anything about their prospects but fans know the Oilers have soured on Nash without ever leaving our basements to buy Cheesies. Sam Pollock’s teams never did that kind of thing.

Will the Oilers do well at the draft? I think they will. Chances are we’ll know 4 or more of the Oilers picks by name as they are called. May not sound like a big deal, but in the last decade Oilers fans were sent running to their search engines for info on Mikhnov, Niinimaki and some other high picks.

NHL GAMES AFTER FIVE YEARS (2015 SUMMER)

The numbers and what I wrote about each man several years after the draft.

Taylor Hall 299, 118-157-275 [.920 points-per-game].  Splendid since his plane touched down at the International, Hall remains the human chance machine. The lack of playoff success in his Oilers career has many turning on him, which is a damned shame. Absolute winner, remain thrilled he is an Oilers player. All kinds of rumors—real or imagined—about his status, but the idea of Hall on one line and McDavid on the other is the best music imaginable. Hope he stays.

Martin Marincin 85, 1-10-11 [.129]. Chiarelli will have an opinion on him, but we already know MacT’s decision and his usually remain final. MM is in a tough spot as an Oiler, because the spot he’ll occupy on the team next season is easily duplicated.

Tyler Pitlick 27, 3-0-3 [.111]. Scored well in his one season junior (22 EV goals) but he didn’t resemble anything close to a top 9F in the AHL before season three. Part of that had to do with injuries, and he does look like he can play a crash and bang style when he’s in the NHL, but the offense is really a concern. I think the general view on Pitlick from the organization was positive under MacTavish, no idea where we go from here.

Brandon Davidson 12, 1-0-1 [.083]. The thing about Davidson is he does so many things that are useful. He skates well, he has decent size, he can pass the puck or skate it out of danger. He could be a real help.

Curtis Hamilton 1, 0-0-0. There was a considerable injury history for Hamilton before the draft and those issues have had considerable impact on his pro career.

Tyler Bunz 1, 0-0-0. Post SP’s of .919 and .921 in his final junior seasons but couldn’t crack .900 during most of his time in the organization. Got into one NHL game.

NHL GAMES YEAR SIX THROUGH 10 (2020)

Taylor Hall 328, 100-188-288 [.878 points-per-game]. He was dealt after six seasons, the last four have seen ups (Hart Trophy 2018) and downs (just five playoff games in his career, missed over 70 games). Free agent this summer, it would be a pretty cool reunion tour.

Tyler Pitlick 221, 38-32-70 [.317]. Finally! He has been in the lineup more often in later years and has found enough offense to avoid the pressbox if not injury. Averaging over 60 games a season now, he should get to 500 NHL games (he has time).

Brandon Davidson 147, 8-14-22 [.150]. There was a time when he looked lke he could not only survive in the NHL—that’s a big one, folks—but also potentially play a major role. Injuries have robbed him of that opportunity. He’s outperformed his draft number.

Martin Marincin 142, 4-19-21 [.148]. Unlike Pitlick and Davidson, Marincin has been healthy while also unable to establish himself as an NHL regular.

10-YEAR GRADES

Taylor Hall emerged as a difference maker early and has been pushing the river for years. In his first five seasons, he averaged 60 games, 24-31-55, quality numbers with about 20 games a season lost to injuries or lockout. In the second five years, he averaged 66 games, 20-38-58. Grade: A.

Brandon Davidson is the other clear success story from this draft, in spite of injury. When he was healthy, before the Tkachuk-Byfuglien shenanigans, Davidson’s underlying possession numbers were truly impressive. He spent 2.5 seasons as a regular, his draft grade accounts for his being chosen in the sixth round. First five seasons average: 2, 0-0-0. Second five seasons: 29, 1-3-4. Grade: B.

Tyler Pitlick took forever to find a way to stay healthy and did not emerge as a scorer. He has posted a career that will cover his draft bet should he continue to play at current levels for three of four more years. In his first five pro seasons, he averaged 5, 0-1-1 as injuries and AHL mediocrity delayed progress. In his second five season segment, Pitlick ran 44, 8-6-14. In his three most recent seasons, it’s 63, 10-10-20. Grade: C.

Martin Marincin spent most of the decade as a fringe NHL player, and is now over 200 career games. In only one season could he have been considered an NHL regular, so success was out of reach despite NHL appearances. In his first five years: 17, 0-2-2 average. Second five: 28, 1-3-4. Grade: D.

I was impressed with the 2010 draft weekend, but the injury assault on Pitlick and Davidson had an impact, and Marincin has never been able to establish himself as a top-six option over a prolonged period. Three men have played over 200 NHL games, with another approaching that number. Considering the Oilers had the No. 1 overall selection, and four picks inside the top 50, we cannot consider the 2010 draft a resounding success 10 years after. Grade: C.

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N64

leadfarmer: How quickly we forget we had two crises
The Coronavirus pandemic
And the complete collapse of medical supply chains caused by the closure of China.
The average US hospital had less than two weeks regular use equipment left and I can’t imagine Canada was much better off.
Even if the virus never crossed the Pacific, hospitals were going to be in crisis mode and shut down all elective procedures

Been away a few days and just saw this now. Yes. How quickly some forget.

If any one is arguing for the herd immunity approach going forward they should consider that
Sweden’s “herd immunity” approach had many restrictions including a 50 person limit for gatherings (same as BC) and that with 20-20 hindsight they would have done more. And if we are talking about going forward they were more restrictive than the long term health orders AB and BC will activate in June.

Fair comment about supplies. As per the following article AB was in a unique situation with supplies due to moves in mid-December, but yes replacement of supplies could have been a factor I missed with regards to not phasing out elective surgery:

https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/david-staples-masterminds-behind-albertas-medical-supplies-surge-to-meet-covid-19-crisis

defmn

OriginalPouzar: I think he has lived up to it, or pretty darn close, but I think that MacKinnon has exceed his draft day expecation.

That sounds right to me.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: No, you just confused me. Now that I understand what you were gettting at it makes sense. McDavid had so much hype it was pretty much impossible for him to live up to all of it.

I think he has lived up to it, or pretty darn close, but I think that MacKinnon has exceed his draft day expecation.

hunter1909

Harpers Hair: Well, here is a brilliant review of a movie that speaks to the subject of today’s thread.

https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/great-movie-being-there-1979

I once watched that movie 5X in a row in some hotel it was always entertaining,

who

defmn: I didn’t see the grade in relation to the organization but, of course, it would be whatever would reflect a 6/7 dman on a so so team. As I said I think it was meant to reflect his grade in comparison to his draft lineage.

I didn’t want t get too specific on my grade for Hall within those parameters since that tends to awaken a certain segment. Nobody is going to change their mind on that after all this time.

I looked at 1st overalls from 2010 to 2018 since those guys tend to “announce early” to use a favourite phrase from around here.

2010 – Hall
2011 – Nuge
2012 – Yakupov
2013 – MacKinnon
2014 – Ekblad
2015 – McDavid
2016 – Matthews
2017 – Hischier
2018 – Dahlin

How would you rank them in terms of 1st OV expectation?

McDavid
MacKinnon
Matthews
Hall
Ekblad
Nuge
Yakupov
Too early to tell on the last 2.

Harpers Hair

Munny:
Harpers Hair,

I’ve read three of his novels.I’d say brilliant is a stretch.competent yes, brilliant, no.

He’s no Nabokov.

Well, here is a brilliant review of a movie that speaks to the subject of today’s thread.

https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/great-movie-being-there-1979

Munny

Harpers Hair,

I’ve read three of his novels. I’d say brilliant is a stretch. competent yes, brilliant, no.

He’s no Nabokov.

Harpers Hair

N64: I’d guess de-audited.

Not at all.

After receiving three or four nines by parroting the prof more eloquently that he could manage himself, I ended the experiment.

At the time, I was a fan of Jerzy Kosiński, a brilliant writer….or was he?

defmn

Oz:
defmn,

Defmin my takeaway was that you plagiarized whenever possible for the remainder of your education, but my partner felt you were inspired by the review of your prof, who is closer to the truth?

I basically stopped buying or reading any textbooks and just listened to the lectures. That way I never made the mistake of confusing what the book really said with what the prof thought it said.

The exception was my major. I did my degrees in classical philosophy and was privileged to have one of the most brilliant men I have ever known as my thesis advisor.

I owe a huge debt to him. The rest was just high school all over again.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Yes, that is correct – maybe I didn’t answer the question (or play the game) correctly.

No, you just confused me. Now that I understand what you were gettting at it makes sense. McDavid had so much hype it was pretty much impossible for him to live up to all of it.

leadfarmer

N64: Already offered my opinion that too many elective surgery beds were cleared (in Western Canada for sure) . But back to the wider views

I expressed my ownviewthat public health restrictions were in Canada at least the smaller part of the economic and social contractionand that reopening is going to generally be a one way trip.

On your side are there any widely supported public restrictionsbeyond care of the vulnerable that you wouldaccept going forward?

How quickly we forget we had two crises
The Coronavirus pandemic
And the complete collapse of medical supply chains caused by the closure of China.
The average US hospital had less than two weeks regular use equipment left and I can’t imagine Canada was much better off.
Even if the virus never crossed the Pacific, hospitals were going to be in crisis mode and shut down all elective procedures

Oz

defmn,

defmn: A little humour regarding Shakespeare – one of the greatest political philosophers of all time.?

First year university English course. First paper on King Lear.

I really love this play so I put in some work. Offer a unique perspective on the final scene. Get a 7.

Second paper on Dickens. I’m in trouble. I’m having problems with my eyes due to prescription and have fallen behind. Does Dickens ever use 10 words when he can write a hundred?

I can get everything else done but I haven’t even started the bloody book. Time for innovation.

No dvd available anywhere in the city. Finally find an abridged animated version at some corner store west of WEM. 42 minutes long.

I watch, I write. At least I got something in on time.

“I never identify individual students in my class and I haven’t given a student a 9 in over 3 years but this effort is so exceptional that I want to mention (yes, me, he is talking about me) and what an excellent paper he has written.”

Shaped my attitude through both degrees going forward.

Defmin my takeaway was that you plagiarized whenever possible for the remainder of your education, but my partner felt you were inspired by the review of your prof, who is closer to the truth?

Harpers Hair

Georges: You didn’t give a lot to go on here… let’s see… you were handing in two papers to classes you were auditing. I’m going to guess that what happened next is you didn’t graduate.

Graduation was never a goal.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: I understand now. You are basing the ranking on verbal expectations prior to the draft. I was basing expectation simply on draft position.

Yes, that is correct – maybe I didn’t answer the question (or play the game) correctly.

OriginalPouzar

Eh Team: Here’s the stats for both (and Benning) since Jan 1, 2020 (all situations per puckiq):

NameEVTOI CF% DFF%GF%PDO

Kris Russell 174.7740.8646.4646.671004
Caleb Jones 338.5348.9949.8361.761049
Matt Benning 224.4249.7551.3750.00993

GF% is probably the least useful piece of info (small sample size and PDO reliant).But both Jones and Benning have been much better than Russell by CF and DFF.

And a material portion of Jones’ minutes were in the 2nd pairing facing tougher comp (although playing with the “good Larsson”).

N64

Georges: You didn’t give a lot to go on here… let’s see… you were handing in two papers to classes you were auditing. I’m going to guess that what happened next is you didn’t graduate.

I’d guess de-audited.

N64

Scungilli Slushy: I don’t agree with you completely, but it should be noted this has moved from an epidemiology issue to a policy issue.

It doesn’t matter whether Covid is worse than the flu or not. It’s come here from policy decisions. Now policy needs to take care of the majority of citizens.

Nature cannot be controlled by humans. Only reacted to. It can be disrupted. Has been. It’s a system. It can be explained with math, but we are nowhere near to having that ability.

The fact is Covid 19 is not widely dangerous to the population in Canada, where we live.

Time to return to normal and enact appropriate and far less costly measures.

This approach should not be done again for such a health issue. Few citizens are at risk in this case, few health systems in Canada were overwhelmed.

If Dr Henry is so wise, I don’t see how her SARS experience led to what B.C. is being subject to. There are almost no cases, few deaths overall and most in care homes, and the borders are closed. The virus came from abroad and obviously isn’t spreading in community to a degree that warrants what is still happened.

Why if employing an epidemiologist with experience in an outbreak didn’t the govt address the issue of greatest concern which is care of the elderly and the fiasco privatization of that care before it was devastated because of policy choices?

What is the imminent danger? What can’t the vacant hospitals handle? Is the goal no one gets it? What about all of the other diseases that cause death? Should people frightened by unclear messaging and the paternalistic govtapproach still avoid health care because they believe they can catch it from an interac terminal or at a doctor’s clinic or a hospital? Wait for a vaccine? What if it doesn’t come ever or for years?

Is there no acceptable and known therapy at this point? Of course there is. Perfect no, better yes.

This situation doesn’t stand up logically to the rigours we put hockey stats and analysis through here. And it is far more important.

Sorry LT. The other side needs airing as well though.

Already offered my opinion that too many elective surgery beds were cleared (in Western Canada for sure) . But back to the wider views

I expressed my own view that public health restrictions were in Canada at least the smaller part of the economic and social contraction and that reopening is going to generally be a one way trip.

On your side are there any widely supported public restrictions beyond care of the vulnerable that you would accept going forward?

Update: at the risk of praising Dr Henry eliminating part time work across multiple senior care sites was very quick. AB started fixing that at the same time but way more of that to fix. Edmonton only had 1 outbreak benefitting from hard lessons learned the first week that outbreaks hit multiple Calgary centres Sweden’s big goal was to build a firewall around seniors care. Short of robotics not sustainable with very high community spread

Georges

Harpers Hair: Haha.

I used to audit Political Science classes and would turn in two papers (it’s complicated).

The first would be based on my opinion of things and the second would be based entirely on what I thought the prof wanted to hear.

Guess what happened next.

You didn’t give a lot to go on here… let’s see… you were handing in two papers to classes you were auditing. I’m going to guess that what happened next is you didn’t graduate.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: I could have gone either way on that one but we are talking relative to draft-day expectations.

I think the gap between the two players is likely smaller than their draft day expectations.

I understand now. You are basing the ranking on verbal expectations prior to the draft. I was basing expectation simply on draft position.

Scungilli Slushy

N64: Actuallya wider lens would not credit or blame gov’t as much as people tend to for either the economic fallout or lives saved.

Most of the results in most places in health and economy are a result of what people did to protect their families. As I stated above.

Some govt’s overreacted. Others underreacted. Also stated above.

Knowing what they know now Sweden wishes they had done more to slow down Covid. BC and AB were far closer to Sweden than many US states. But also had a lot of luck including more cohesive public health authorities than e.g. Ontario. Both focused on mass gatherings and closing non essential retail and personal services where as Ontario and Quebec closed industry wholesale including construction

I stated there was overreaction. I don’t think AB needed to attach fines to the public health orders. Also AB could have reduced elective surgery in different hospitals in stages rather than emptying beds in all hospitals at once

Early on I objected to the idea that what we did in March was sustainable in the long term. There are things I would retain as long as neededspecifically 14 days quarantine arriving in Canada and restrictions on large gsaheriings.

Summer and outdoors will buy us some more time and then we’ll find out what we’ve all learned.

I don’t agree with you completely, but it should be noted this has moved from an epidemiology issue to a policy issue.

It doesn’t matter whether Covid is worse than the flu or not. It’s come here from policy decisions. Now policy needs to take care of the majority of citizens.

Nature cannot be controlled by humans. Only reacted to. It can be disrupted. Has been. It’s a system. It can be explained with math, but we are nowhere near to having that ability.

The fact is Covid 19 is not widely dangerous to the population in Canada, where we live.

Time to return to normal and enact appropriate and far less costly measures.

This approach should not be done again for such a health issue. Few citizens are at risk in this case, few health systems in Canada were overwhelmed.

If Dr Henry is so wise, I don’t see how her SARS experience led to what B.C. is being subject to. There are almost no cases, few deaths overall and most in care homes, and the borders are closed. The virus came from abroad and obviously isn’t spreading in community to a degree that warrants what is still happened.

Why if employing an epidemiologist with experience in an outbreak didn’t the govt address the issue of greatest concern which is care of the elderly and the fiasco privatization of that care before it was devastated because of policy choices?

What is the imminent danger? What can’t the vacant hospitals handle? Is the goal no one gets it? What about all of the other diseases that cause death? Should people frightened by unclear messaging and the paternalistic govt approach still avoid health care because they believe they can catch it from an interac terminal or at a doctor’s clinic or a hospital? Wait for a vaccine? What if it doesn’t come ever or for years?

Is there no acceptable and known therapy at this point? Of course there is. Perfect no, better yes.

This situation doesn’t stand up logically to the rigours we put hockey stats and analysis through here. And it is far more important.

Sorry LT. The other side needs airing as well though.

Eh Team

OriginalPouzar: jp: I agree there’s an argument for Jones. I just don’t see how anyone can reasonably say it’s clear cut (see above). I actually think they’ll both get games in the playoffs and I’m 100% cool with that.

I can’t disagree and I wasn’t one that said it was clear – the fact that one of them is going to be a healthy scratch shows really really good depth.

They have different skill-sets and, personally, for game 1, I like Jones and his puck-moving, skating skill-set.

100%, I agree, both will play.

Here’s the stats for both (and Benning) since Jan 1, 2020 (all situations per puckiq):

Name EVTOI CF% DFF% GF% PDO

Kris Russell 174.77 40.86 46.46 46.67 1004
Caleb Jones 338.53 48.99 49.83 61.76 1049
Matt Benning 224.42 49.75 51.37 50.00 993

GF% is probably the least useful piece of info (small sample size and PDO reliant). But both Jones and Benning have been much better than Russell by CF and DFF.

N64

defmn,

~Beef is fine. But did we really need to keep those work camps open to send them oil? ~

On a more serious note I’m amazed at only 2 outbreaks (both confined to dozens of cases) from hundreds of large scale work camps producing much of Canada’s Oil.

With apologies to our neighbors who imported some of those cases. Though we are still a net interprovincial importer of cases on account of the BC dental conference

Georges

defmn: I didn’t see the grade in relation to the organization but, of course, it would be whatever would reflect a 6/7 dman on a so so team. As I said I think it was meant to reflect his grade in comparison to his draft lineage.

I didn’t want t get too specific on my grade for Hall within those parameters since that tends to awaken a certain segment. Nobody is going to change their mind on that after all this time.

I looked at 1st overalls from 2010 to 2018 since those guys tend to “announce early” to use a favourite phrase from around here.

2010 – Hall
2011 – Nuge
2012 – Yakupov
2013 – MacKinnon
2014 – Ekblad
2015 – McDavid
2016 – Matthews
2017 – Hischier
2018 – Dahlin

How would you rank them in terms of 1st OV expectation?

It doesn’t really matter what grade the player gets. That’s just a distraction. What matters is the org. gets an F.

The point of the draft is to find players who will perform better than the typical NHL player. If you find better than typical players in the draft, you win. If you don’t, you lose. You can find lots of below typical players already playing in the NHL or playing on its fringes. They’re the bounty of all past drafts. Why go through the uncertainty of draft and develop over years and years to get JJ level performance, as an example. I think Holland gets this. And it’s why he didn’t go with Gambradella, Benson, Currie, Cave, Marody, Benson, Yamamoto or any of the other forwards who were part of the organization when he arrived. Because, by the time Holland arrived, none of them had shown they could perform as above typical NHL players. So he went with the safer bet of just below typical NHL vets and played the long odds with undrafted European players.

I don’t know how to convert the output of a forward and a defensemen to a common scale. I can only compare like to like. If I really feel compelled to compare them, I tend to think in terms of draft picks: how many draft picks would I have to use to find a player like this? The player who’s harder to find (i.e., costs more in terms of draft picks) is the more valuable player.

For Hall, as I said earlier, I would choose his comparison set as 1OV F picks from 2000 to 2019. Hall places 9th out of 15 players on Pts/GP. That can’t be an A for the player. Definitely an A for the organization.

OriginalPouzar

jp: I agree there’s an argument for Jones. I just don’t see how anyone can reasonably say it’s clear cut (see above). I actually think they’ll both get games in the playoffs and I’m 100% cool with that.

I can’t disagree and I wasn’t one that said it was clear – the fact that one of them is going to be a healthy scratch shows really really good depth.

They have different skill-sets and, personally, for game 1, I like Jones and his puck-moving, skating skill-set.

100%, I agree, both will play.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: MacKinnon over McDavid is interesting.

Care to elaborate?

I could have gone either way on that one but we are talking relative to draft-day expectations.

I think the gap between the two players is likely smaller than their draft day expectations.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

Ladies in the ladies restrooms?

N64

Scungilli Slushy: I think you care about this topic, but you don’t ever seem to take a broader perspective on the issue.

Actually a wider lens would not credit or blame gov’t as much as people tend to for either the economic fallout or lives saved.

Most of the results in most places in health and economy are a result of what people did to protect their families. As I stated above.

Some govt’s overreacted. Others underreacted. Also stated above.

Knowing what they know now Sweden wishes they had done more to slow down Covid. BC and AB were far closer to Sweden than many US states.

But AB and BC also had a lot of luck including more cohesive public health authorities than e.g. Ontario. Both focused on mass gatherings and closing non essential retail and personal services where as Ontario and Quebec closed industry wholesale including construction

I stated there was overreaction. I don’t think AB needed to attach fines to the public health orders. Also AB could have reduced elective surgery in different hospitals in stages rather than emptying beds in all hospitals at once

Early on I objected to the idea that what we did in March was sustainable in the long term. There are things I would retain as long as needed specifically 14 days quarantine arriving in Canada and restrictions on large gatherings.

That this is the flu. That govt’s caused MOST of the economic or social contraction. I’ll disagree with either proposition every time. But In a Canadian context I don’t see reopening as generally reversible.

Covid kills people. People reduce activity. Covid kills less people. They resume economic activity.

Summer and outdoors will buy us some more time and then we’ll find out what we’ve all learned.

jp

OriginalPouzar: In 2020, since the turn of the calendar, Jones played about a minute more than Rusty per game at 5 on 5 and his GF% was over 60% and Rusty was below 50%.

I haven’t gone to puckIQ and am not sure if one can use date range as a parameter but I believe that much of that time for Jones was in the top 4 playing with Larsson while Klefbom was hurt.

I agree there’s an argument for Jones. I just don’t see how anyone can reasonably say it’s clear cut (see above). I actually think they’ll both get games in the playoffs and I’m 100% cool with that.

jp

defmn: I think it is closer to say that Jones game aligns better with how the top two lines like to play compared to Russell’s game. The fit is better with McDavid, Nuge and Draisaitl.

Is that fair?

Yes that’s definitely closer to fair.

Though a PK role has kept Khaira and Sheahan and Archibald in the lineup essentially season despite far, far worse 5v5 results than Kris Russell’s. Russell was -1 on a team that was -16 at 5v5 after all. There kind of isn’t actually a problem with this player (salary aside).

I’d also like to reiterate that I like Jones. I’m not claiming Russell is the better player. But anyone claiming that Jones is a clearly superior option and the obvious right choice in the lineup isn’t looking at all the available information.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Interesting, I think I’d have to go:

MacKinnon
McDavid
Matthews
Dahlin
Hall
Ekblad
Nuge
Hischier
Yakupov

MacKinnon over McDavid is interesting.

Care to elaborate?

OriginalPouzar

Jaxon: Yup. And the funny thing is, a player he was traded for me be the other most underrated player. Peter Forsberg was one of the funnest players to watch. I remember watching him on a penalty kill once where he kept the puck for almost three entire kill. So skilled and so determined. One of my favorite players of all time whose career was also cut short by injuries.

I was just about to respond and mention it but you ended off with it – yup, another all-time great who’s career was shortened due to injuries.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Do you have anything to support this?

Russell played a bit more difficult 5 on 5 minutes than Jones this season (both zone starts and TOI vs elites). Russell was 20GF-21GA, Jones was 27GF-25GA. A slight advantage to Jones but way higher GF/GA rates (Russell played 776 minutes vs 586 for Jones). Russell was also a key penalty killer and played 2.5 minutes per game more than Jones overall.

I believe Jones may well be better than Russell today. But saying there’s a large and obvious gap between the two isn’t close to reality IMO.

In 2020, since the turn of the calendar, Jones played about a minute more than Rusty per game at 5 on 5 and his GF% was over 60% and Rusty was below 50%.

I haven’t gone to puckIQ and am not sure if one can use date range as a parameter but I believe that much of that time for Jones was in the top 4 playing with Larsson while Klefbom was hurt.

OriginalPouzar

defmn:

2010 – Hall
2011 – Nuge
2012 – Yakupov
2013 – MacKinnon
2014 – Ekblad
2015 – McDavid
2016 – Matthews
2017 – Hischier
2018 – Dahlin

How would you rank them in terms of 1st OV expectation?

Interesting, I think I’d have to go:

MacKinnon
McDavid
Matthews
Dahlin
Hall
Ekblad
Nuge
Hischier
Yakupov

defmn

jp: Do you have anything to support this?

Russell played a bit more difficult 5 on 5 minutes than Jones this season (both zone starts and TOI vs elites). Russell was 20GF-21GA, Jones was 27GF-25GA. A slight advantage to Jones but way higher GF/GA rates (Russell played 776 minutes vs 586 for Jones). Russell was also a key penalty killer and played 2.5 minutes per game more than Jones overall.

I believe Jones may well be better than Russell today. But saying there’s a large and obvious gap between the two isn’t close to reality IMO.

I think it is closer to say that Jones game aligns better with how the top two lines like to play compared to Russell’s game. The fit is better with McDavid, Nuge and Draisaitl.

Is that fair?

defmn

N64: And yet Covid per capita in AB was lower than BC until mid April.

~ Then we all started washing our hands at the High River abbatoir. ~

Somebody had to feed all those British Columbians. 😉

Scungilli Slushy

N64: Amazingly people understood that covid-19 could cause the destruction of people’s lives. All over the world mobility dropped dramatically. And surprise surprise reduced economic activity is the flip side of reduced social activity,

Some gov’ts underreacted, Others overreacted, But everywhere economies contracted dramatically. We can argue forever what could have been done differently where and when, but motivated reasoning is always going to get in the way of looking at reality:

Rondo (March 13): “The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu… What was different? (chuckles) What was different was we had a Democrat in the White House”

11 weeks later covid was barely breaking a sweat and the President had the US flag lowered to mark 100,000 deaths, EIGHT TIMES the official CDC swine flu estimate of 12,469 deaths found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Every region’s situation is different. The UK started with a plan for herd immunity and backed off because they saw it could not work for their demographics. Sweden had more favorable demographics for that experiment and continued. Last week admittedly still far from herd mentality they topped the global weekly death per capita chart. At which point the epidemiologist executing their plan offered the following:

Anders Tegnell (June 3): “If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sweden-coronavirus-reaction-1.5596235

I have no idea why Montana had stay at home orders while Alberta and BC were much closer to Swedish public health orders. But the economic results in those 3 places are fairly similar. On the downside because people stopped non-essential purchases and on the upside because of the resulting large drops in covid,

Non-motivated thinking goes beyond victimhood and imagining that things would be OK if everyone else wasn’t hysterical. If anything gov’ts get too much blame and credit. If people had reallybought the its just the seasonal flu nonsense, the personal, social, and economic consequences would be off the charts. Surprisingly less death is good business.

I think you care about this topic, but you don’t ever seem to take a broader perspective on the issue.

I think Rondo is trying to do that. I don’t agree with either of you completely.

The bottom line is that at this point things have moved beyond epidemiology to policy.

My view is that wherever possible life should return to normal, especially in the majority of Canada, because we are a democracy. Democratic rights are being suppressed for reasons that no longer make sense based on math. Many Canadian epidemiologists have been stating this publicly.

Talk of the new normal is ridiculous. What it amounts to is a sentiment that nature can be ultimately controlled and this is a lie.

It can be mitigated and that is it. Our governments failed in doing this. They decided that taking care of citizens was less important than right wing economics, and we see the results as 85% of deaths were in long term care homes.

This means the majority of Canadians aren’t at risk from Covid 19, and every measure to restore livelihood, a sense of well being and hope, and respect for future generations, as in our children, should be taken immediately and logically, which isn’t what I see happening now in Canada.

Ontario ams Quebec have bigger problems because of large cities, but that’s it. The rest of us don’t. And the spike flattens regardless as is widely known about Covid 19.

The lionized Dr Henry and her deferring Premiere is intimating that school won’t restart fully in the fall. I’ll skip the other garbage that Govt is advertising to people that live in BC.

Less than 200 deaths in BC, empty Covid wards province wide, and a tiny amount of active cases. I am concerned for my children’s education and future.

Way too far.

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar:
Eric Lindros is one of the most under-rated NHLers of the modern era, in my opinion.

Rarely have we seen such a dominant player in his prime – damn injuries (and, of course, his “personality” and “family personality” have hurt his “rep”).

Yup. And the funny thing is, a player he was traded for me be the other most underrated player. Peter Forsberg was one of the funnest players to watch. I remember watching him on a penalty kill once where he kept the puck for almost three entire kill. So skilled and so determined. One of my favorite players of all time whose career was also cut short by injuries.

jp

Eh Team: Jones is so much better than Russell. I guess if you if you want to go ‘veteran’ over ability, then knock yourself out. But if you want to win, play your best players.

Do you have anything to support this?

Russell played a bit more difficult 5 on 5 minutes than Jones this season (both zone starts and TOI vs elites). Russell was 20GF-21GA, Jones was 27GF-25GA. A slight advantage to Jones but way higher GF/GA rates (Russell played 776 minutes vs 586 for Jones). Russell was also a key penalty killer and played 2.5 minutes per game more than Jones overall.

I believe Jones may well be better than Russell today. But saying there’s a large and obvious gap between the two isn’t close to reality IMO.

Glovjuice

hunter1909: So. 500 years of Western Civilization has produced 1 Mozart, but the NHL Edmonton Oilers have 2 Mozarts?

This, ladies and gentlemen, is Frontier Bias at its most enthusiastic.

Well, no. I could include Beethoven, Brams, Bach, Paul, Miles and a few others.

N64

defmn: Sure. We are all dirty slobs here in Alberta.

Whoops. I’ve lived in B.C.

Land of the unwashed they like to call the homeless.

And yet Covid per capita in AB was lower than BC until mid April.

~ Then we all started washing our hands at the High River abbatoir. ~

defmn

Glovjuice: Hand hygiene is better in BC on average than AB – especially once the virus became global news.

Sure. We are all dirty slobs here in Alberta.

Whoops. I’ve lived in B.C.

Land of the unwashed they like to call the homeless.

defmn

Harpers Hair: Haha.

I used to audit Political Science classes and would turn in two papers (it’s complicated).

The first would be based on my opinion of things and the second would be based entirely on what I thought the prof wanted to hear.

Guess what happened next.

International politics wasn’t really of much interest to me but I had to take a course in it for my undergrad degree and the paper I chose was on the EU. This was about 45 years ago so you can look back on where that was at.

It was actually a little bit interesting because the EU evolved out of what was originally a cartel for marketing coal. OPEC used their same model when they formed some 50 years later.

Anyway, international politics isn’t really interested in imagination so I did the academic thing of documenting and footnoting etc. that passes for higher education but in my closing paragraph I made the mistake of speculating that given its trajectory and momentum it wasn’t out of the question that the EU would eventually move to a common currency.

“Excellent paper, ——, except for the concluding paragraph. This is political science, not science fiction.” 😉

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Glovjuice,

Source?

Harpers Hair

defmn: A little humour regarding Shakespeare – one of the greatest political philosophers of all time.

First year university English course. First paper on King Lear.

I really love this play so I put in some work. Offer a unique perspective on the final scene. Get a 7.

Second paper on Dickens. I’m in trouble. I’m having problems with my eyes due to prescription and have fallen behind. Does Dickens ever use 10 words when he can write a hundred?

I can get everything else done but I haven’t even started the bloody book. Time for innovation.

No dvd available anywhere in the city. Finally find an abridged animated version at some corner store west of WEM. 42 minutes long.

I watch, I write. At least I got something in on time.

“I never identify individual students in my class and I haven’t given a student a 9 in over 3 years but this effort is so exceptional that I want to mention (yes, me, he is talking about me) and what an excellent paper he has written.”

Shaped my attitude through both degrees going forward.

Haha.

I used to audit Political Science classes and would turn in two papers (it’s complicated).

The first would be based on my opinion of things and the second would be based entirely on what I thought the prof wanted to hear.

Guess what happened next.

Glovjuice

defmn: One last post on this from me.

Given the high level of traffic between China and Vancouver through the international airport and the period of time from it first appearing in Wuhan and when anybody in B.C. did anything whatsoever this virus should have been everywhere in the lower mainland and the island before anybody ever heard of Dr. Bonnie.

Testing in B.C. is about a third of what it has been in Alberta with just slightly more deaths even though I have read for months that testing was one of the major prongs in defeating this epidemic.

So to me ‘luck’ played a larger role than anything else.

Hand hygiene is better in BC on average than AB – especially once the virus became global news.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Georges,

How does the grading of the first overall players you mentioned account for quality of team/teammates?

defmn

Harpers Hair: And, of course, HE WAS WRONG.

A little humour regarding Shakespeare – one of the greatest political philosophers of all time. 😉

First year university English course. First paper on King Lear.

I really love this play so I put in some work. Offer a unique perspective on the final scene. Get a 7.

Second paper on Dickens. I’m in trouble. I’m having problems with my eyes due to prescription and have fallen behind. Does Dickens ever use 10 words when he can write a hundred?

I can get everything else done but I haven’t even started the bloody book. Time for innovation.

No dvd available anywhere in the city. Finally find an abridged animated version at some corner store west of WEM. 42 minutes long.

I watch, I write. At least I got something in on time.

“I never identify individual students in my class and I haven’t given a student a 9 in over 3 years but this effort is so exceptional that I want to mention (yes, me, he is talking about me) and what an excellent paper he has written.”

Shaped my attitude through both degrees going forward.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
Eric Lindros is one of the most under-rated NHLers of the modern era, in my opinion.

Rarely have we seen such a dominant player in his prime – damn injuries (and, of course, his “personality” and “family personality” have hurt his “rep”).

Him and Jagr were not far from each other in dominance in their prime but those injuries took it all away