Later this month, the NHL will run its draft lottery. Reading the tea leaves, I suspect late September will see the draft, as teams will want to pick these kids before junior games get underway. A high draft pick injured pre-draft isn’t going to help anyone. Today, I’ve decided to do a mock draft. A complete first-round followed by an Oilers mock. Let’s get started.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Deadline deal for Andreas Athanasiou looms large in Oilers’ offseason picture
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Does being an NHL hub city really benefit the local economy? Experts weigh in
- New Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
No. 1 DETROIT RED WINGS: LW Alexis Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL. An easy choice for Steve Yzerman in his second draft as DRW’s general manager. Potential to be a franchise player, NHL ready. I imagine he’ll take a few shifts with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha but it’s anyone’s guess how he is deployed in his first season.
No. 2 OTTAWA SENATORS: LC Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL. He’s a big man who has terrific skill, speed and a very bright future. He doesn’t get a lot of credit for goal scoring due to other skills, but he can rip it. Senators are building a fine group of forwards, Byfield and Brady Tkachuk on the same line is a scary thought.
No. 3 OTTAWA SENATORS: LC Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL. The Senators take a speedy, brilliant offensive force in Stutzle. Added to the other young forwards, and Byfield, the Sens are building a fantastic team of the future.
No. 4 LOS ANGELES KINGS: RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SHL. He is my favorite player in the draft and represents a perfect fit for the Kings. Tremendous sniper, he joins a growing list (Alex Turcotte, Alex Kaliyev, Gabriel Vilardi) of impressive offensive forwards on the coast.
No. 5 ANAHEIM DUCKS: LC Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL. Another ridiculous skill forward in a draft that has tremendous promise. His skill set includes stealth thefts via backchecks ala Nuge and intelligent two-way play. This is a fantastic player at this number.
No. 6 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: LC Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL. The final high skill OHL forward gives the Devils a future winger for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. He’s a shooter, great match of player and team.
No. 7 BUFFALO SABRES: LC Anton Lundell, Helsinki Liiga. He’s a big pivot with skill and two-way ability, plus he is a more mature player physically than some of the other players in the draft. Complete player.
NO. 8 MONTREAL CANADIENS: LHD Jake Sanderson, US National Team (USHL). After a long run on skilled forwards, Sanderson is the first defenseman off the board. He is big, strong, fast, and has a great shot.
NO. 9 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: LW Lucas Raymond, Frolunda (SHL). Creative winger is magic on the power play and owns great vision and passing ability. Falls because his SHL season wasn’t grand and he’s undersized, but he could make a lot of teams pay for passing on him.
NO. 10 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: RHD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL. Absolute steal at this point in the draft (I have him No. 5) but he’s 5.11, 175 and teams shy away from defenseman that small. I think he’s a home run.
NO. 11 MINNESOTA WILD: RC Seth Jarvis, Portland WHL. Great speed and skill, he also owns an impressive shot. Minnesota badly needs offensive punch, and even though Jarvis is a couple of years away, his potential makes him worth this pick.
NO. 12 WINNIPEG JETS: RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL. He spiked at the right time and at this point has enough positive indicators to go inside the top 10 overall. One of the best scorers in the draft, good speed and he’s a little bigger than some of the smaller wingers ahead of him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went top-10 overall.
NO. 13 NY RANGERS: LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL. One of the players I’m sure will go higher than I have him, Guhle is a mobile defender who can defend and play a complementary offensive role. His combination of speed, size (6.02, 186) and coverage makes him attractive to a team like New York. I bet Edmonton likes him, too.
NO. 14 FLORIDA PANTHERS: LW Dylan Holloway, Wisconsin NCAA. Big winger is a September 2001 who played college hockey and delivered enough offense to be considered here. It’s more likely he’ll have a career as a two-way winger, but he was 17 when he went to camp and scored 8 goals as a freshman. Intriguing player.
NO. 15: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL. I’d love to see him fall to Edmonton but creative righty centers are always in vogue. He’s a smart player and has the range of skills.
NO. 16 CALGARY FLAMES: RW Noel Gunler, Lulea (SHL). Another scoring winger and another good match if he falls to Edmonton. The Flames used to be miserable at the draft, now they’re brilliant. One of the best shots in the draft.
NO. 17 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: G Yaroslav Askarov, St. Petersburg VHL. The Devils have chosen a goalie in the first round three times, and I believe Askarov will represent too much value to pass on at this point.
NO. 18 NASHVILLE PREDATORS: LC Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL. A friend to his coach, Zary manages to deliver offense via creativity while also making safe plays with the puck consistently. He’s less dynamic than the other forwards in the top 20 but deadly effective.
NO. 19 CAROLINA HURRICANES: LHD Jeremie Poirer, Saint John QMJHL. A brilliant offensive defenseman with perhaps the most dynamic skill set among blue liners in this draft. His coverage and attention to defensive detail are the reason he isn’t a top-10 pick.
NO. 20 EDMONTON OILERS: RW Dawson Mercer, Chicoutimi QMJHL. Grabbing Mercer in the first round of the 2020 draft will give Edmonton three legit scoring prospects on RW (Kailer Yamamoto, Raphael Lavoie). Mercer’s draft year NHLE (31.8) is between Yamamoto’s (37.7) and Lavoie’s (27.4) in their respective draft seasons, and that seems right in terms of projection.
- No. 21: Ottawa Senators: RHD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL.
- No. 22: Dallas Stars: LHD Ryan O’Rourke, SS Marie OHL.
- No. 23: NY Rangers: LW Ridly Greig, Brandon WHL.
- No. 24: Minnesota Wild: LC Marat Khusnutdinov, St. Petersburg MHL.
- No. 25: Philadelphia Flyers: RW John Peterka, Munich DEL
- No. 26: San Jose Sharks: LC Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL
- No. 27: Colorado Avalanche: LW Rodion Amirov, Ufa KHL
- No. 28: Vegas Golden Knights: RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL.
- No. 29: Washington Capitals: LHD Shakir Mukhamadullin, Ufa KHL
- No. 30: St. Louis Blues: LW Brendan Brisson, Chicago USHL
- No. 31: Anaheim Ducks: LW Lukas Reichel, Berlin DEL
OILERS MOCK
No. 20: RW Dawson Mercer. Similar to Yamamoto in that Mercer should develop into a legit offensive threat if everything works out. He’s 6.0, 181, aggressive in puck pursuit and has a great release. Oilers fans should be thrilled if Mercer falls to Edmonton. He did have a wrist injury that ended his season but is a fantastic young player.
No. 82: RC Justin Sourdif. I don’t know when he’ll go but if he can play center in the NHL getting him at 82 would be a home run. Great skater, NHLE (23.5) suggests he might score enough to make the NHL and he’s got a great motor.
No. 144: LC Jakob Konecny. Last year’s draft put a great emphasis on speed and skill, and Konecny is a similar talent to Maxim Denezhkin a year ago. Undersized, fast and skilled.
No. 175 LC Elliot Ekmark. Great skater, skilled and can score off the rush with a quality shot. He’s 5.09, that’s the drag, but at No. 144 he’s good value.
No. 208 LW Pavel Gogolev. I have a good memory and have valued Gogolev since his first draft eligible season (2018) when he scored 30 in the OHL and slipped through. He is not fast but can score goals.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we talk hockey, soccer and more. At 10:20, Bruce McCurdy will swing by to discuss Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and James Neal. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will give his picks for the Blue-Emu 500 (Nascar) race tonight and we’ll chat about UFC Fight Island. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
defmn,
That is a wonderful story.
As a faith based person whose 10th anniversary is in a few weeks, I appreciate what they are doing. I will be grabbing this song tomorrow for sure.
Final 2020 draft ranking from thehockeywriters.com where the author of the article says he’s seen every player on the list play. One interesting thing I took note of before the actual list is the way he ranks tiers.
“Of course, you’re probably wondering about tiers. For me, it’s as follows:
Tier 1: 1-2
Tier 2: 3-6
Tier 3: 7-11
Tier 4: 12-21
Tier 5: 22-47
Tier 6: 47-86
Tier 7: 87+
If you checked out Larry Fisher’s top-500 final rankings (which you should if you haven’t), you would have read that his 21-45 tier was the hardest to nail down. My 22-47 tier is the same. These are all players that I think could go in the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did (well, nine of them). But it was tough to finalize which players to include in the first round and which were just outside.
Other than that, I could probably add a tier in between 87 and 155, but at that point, it’s a bit too nitpicky for me. I’m content with the giant final tier as it stands. At that point in the draft, it’s pretty wide open in my opinion.”
Source:
“2020 NHL Draft: Josh Bell’s Top 155 Final Rankings” https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-final-rankings-bell/
As is so often when you respond to one of my posts you either mischaracterize what I wrote or just plain miss the point. If this is the best you can do can you please just not respond in future because it has become more annoying than it is worth.
Thank you.
I’ve assumed consensus from NHL players might need to be as high as 90% up or down on the final proposal. Might be harder for NBA to get there than NHL.
As per Woj, lots of NBA player with uncertainty regarding the NBA’s return to play logistics.
Something to keep an eye on as the concerns may be similar across leagues:
Sources: Different players are expressing different concerns on restart, but consistent among them all: restrictions surrounding quarantine in Orlando. Players are talking on conference calls — and among each other. Both NBA and NBPA expected to further engage them on issues.
The sign of a bad organisation is reacting to others, always waiting for others to make the first move so the losers can react etc.
Oilers under Lowe/MacT through Chiarelli were the model of this appalling managerial style. Therefore what you say about JPs agent is substantially correct.
Now under Holland, the Oilers are no longer waiting for others to act, they have their own agenda and are following it. In other words the model of a well run business organisation.
Whatever transpires re JP, with Holland in charge am certain JP is not going to be getting dealt for a 2nd rounder like some of the more browbeaten folk around here think. Of course no browbeaten Oilers fan can understand this concept. Understanding this concept would mean they no longer think like losers.
When I’m wrong on something factual, absolutely.
Whether its a good idea or not to buy out Neal is an opinion and a subjective-based discussion. Noone is right or wrong at this point.
Whether an unsigned RFA can be claimed by Seattle in the expansion draft is a factual discussion and the the poster is wrong, double down on being wrong and remains wrong while disappearing.
He must be waiting for Speeds to confirm.
You mean like you do, all the time?
They do not have to have a contract to be claimed.
They need to claim 20 players under contract – out of 30 picks – hence 10 player that do not have contracts can be claimed.
If McDavid was an RFA and unprotected, they would take him because they want the player.
Of course that would never happen.
If Puljujarvi is an RFA and unprotected, he would be available to Seattle to take – noone has said they will take him but that he’s available.
You questioned the availability to take him, were proven wrong, dug in, were proven wrong again and continue to dig in.
Will you admit you were wrong on this one?
Edmonton or Vancouver would be logical if the federal government does not require players coming to Canada to quarantine at home for 14 days.
Klefbom, Larsson, Nygard, Haas, Koskinen have all been able to skate and train in Europe, Neal has been able to train and skate in Nashville – as of now, if they come to Canada, they can’t do any of that for 14 days – they need to stay home.
A reason why Holland is suggesting camp may be held in the US if the Oilers are placed in a US hub.
I believe a team cohort style quarantine will be allowed by the feds.
Yes, we can think about it logically and what we think is best for Jesse and his future but its been shown, time and time again, that he and his agent will make career path choices that don’t align with NHL success.
We can speculate as to his mind-set and and change therein all we want but, at this point, there has been nothing to show that there will be such a chance.
I hope you are right and there is.
I don’t agree with the first statement at all.
If Jesse simply repeats his last season, which was very very good – top 5 in scoring, leading the league in shots, top player on a good team, etc. – i think his value is likely to decrease from where it is this year – Jesse is a year older, a year closer to UFA, etc.
If he has a lesser year, which is entirely possible, value decreases.
He would have to have a materially better season in order for his value to increase in my opinion.
I think the chances of his value decreasing are much higher than increasing at this point.
In other words, upon fulfilling the minimum requirement Seattle would still be able to select players from up to 10 (Vegas exempted) other teams that are not under contract; eg. a qualified but unsigned Jesse P.
No, a minimum of 20 player under contract for the next season must be taken – implication that 10 unsigned players can be taken.
20 players with contracts out of 30 selections.
A qualifying offer is not a contract for the 20/21 season.
I missed this part earlier.
“Seattle will select one player from each team excluding the Golden Knights for a total of 30 (14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goalies)”
Ah but they can claim qualified RFA
Why would they?
The rules stipulate Seattle must pick 20 players who are under contract.
Those are the mandatory exposures to meet the minimal requirements for quality of players available. Seattle can choose anyone who is not protected or exempt. It doesn’t have to choose from the mandatory exposure list.
Private corridor in Edmonton. Integrated bubble.
Think this will be market driven. Likely all in US. Dys or Oil would be more logical but this is the NHL
Seems clear.
“Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season”
Vancouver’s hub city proposal has been approved provincially and the province has been in touch with the federal government.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-nhl-hub-city-plan-gets-approval-from-provincial-health-officer-pm-advised-1.4978531
As a result, I’ve written to the prime minister advising him that Vancouver and British Columbia would welcome the NHL as per the plan that was put together by the Vancouver Canucks, the NHL, and of course, public health officials,” he said.
Horgan said provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has reviewed the plan, and it involves a “modification” to the quarantine plan that would allow a team to be a family entity or a bubble.
“So those individuals within that organization would stay together in that one hotel. They would travel to Rogers Arena together in private transportation,” Horgan said. “Any testing would be the responsibility of the club. No interaction with the public would take place for the 14-day quarantine period.”
A year of experience. More confidence. Realizing waiting out Holland may be a slower track than going through training camp here if he’s ready to roll.
Players generally do not concede in advance that they will fold on the next call.
And even less chance that the value is going to drop significantly.
Once you are into 2nd round draft pick who might be worth something in 3-4 years just how far do you think the value can drop?
Nope.
Any player exposed must be under contract.
https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918
The value he may have on the ice for an acquiring team does not equate to his trade value.
No, Seattle can take his RFA rights if the Oilers don’t protect him.
Sure but there is zero intel to suggest that Jesse has new readiness to move forward in the Oiler organization. What makes you suggest he is?
I’m not suggesting that Holland trade him for less than Holland’s perceived value – if he can’t get what he wants, fine, another year.
My preference is Jesse signed and in camp – I just don’t see it.
With that said, he hasn’t re-signed in Karpat.
He does have KHL offers – that would preclude him from coming over during the term of a contract.
No. All the Oilers have to do is qualify Puljujarvi to retain his rights and make him eligible to be picked in the expansion draft.
There is all but zero chance the value is going to increase at any point in the future.
The only realistic way that happens is if the player plays for the Oilers and nothing points to that being a realistic option.
I hope it does, it would change the conversation completely.
.
Will look again, but at first blush not seeing references to contract in terms of who can be claimed.
For exposure equirements yes those have to be under contract
If Jesse turns out to be a plug and play third liner or better and Holland moves him for a second round pick history will not be kind to Holland. Many of the same posters saying the best he can expect should be a second round pick would be leading the pitchfork parade and calling for his head.
I believe Jesse would have to be under contract to be a factor in the expansion draft, no?
Holland contemplating holding camp in the US depending on the situation (and has discussed the same with upper management).
No decisions are being made now and he’ll wait until the hubs are confirmed but, if the team is playing in the US, why have the players not currently in Canada (many) subject to 14 day quarantine upon return of there are other options?
Sure. But the key thing for all parties is Jesse’s readiness to move forward. I’d suggest he’s closer to betting on himself. Hollands part is patience. We’ll see. If not let Jesse prove he belongs in Seattle instead of one of our D.
Every time an Oiler gets traded after a bad season this blog explodes with comments about selling low.
And yet here we are once again beating the drums to sell low.
Ha!
I am far from an expert on the non-drafted prospect but I’m intrigued by his ability to change league mid-season (shit, change continents, style of game, size of ice etc.) and pick right back up.
From what I understand, he did NOT play with the like of Kaliyev at evens so I don’t think the worry about his stats being zoomed is material.
but is it pennies on the dollar? The value of the dollar is not the same as it was in 2016 or 2017
I just don’t see any upside for Holland to do anything. I suppose if there is somebody available in the 2nd round that the Oilers have rated as a first round talent it might move him to make a phone call at the draft but that is not a likely scenario.
I think Holland is a “use all the time you have” kind of guy and if a 2nd rounder is your best play that is about 3-4 years of draft & development before you get your 30% chance the new guy is worth anything so I see Holland waiting at least that long.
I know I would. Business is business.
I don’t see it either and that’s just value between the assets and not even taking in to account expansion draft implications – which I’m sure all GMs will be very live to in any transaction prior to Seattle.
I get a funny feeling in mysack every time I watch Mysak highlights… can’t help but feel he’ll be a keeper.
Correct – it would have to be agreed upon – probably including in the vote that will be done at some point that sets out all the parameters, logistics and protocols for stage 3, stage 4, the off-season, and economic matters relating to both the current season and next season.
The number of matters currently being negotiated is massive.
Also, its not just the last 4 teams, all playoff teams are subject to re-seeded draft order.
If the Bruins lose in the first round, they’ll draft 24th.
I believe your thinking is spot on. The mistakes that brought Jesse and the Oilers to this impasse are not of Holland’s making. The only way he gets any dirt on his record is if he lets Jesse go for pennies on the dollar. Jesse’s agent should be feeling some pressure assuming he is even a little astute, as Holland is playing with house money. Jesse is betting an NHL career. Both Jesse and his agent are bleeding money each year this continues. I would think it is also not great for the agents career, earnings or reputation. On a a 1 to 10 scale of stupid this standoff is off the chart.
Lol. I’m more conservative on JP’s value. Suspect a second rounder will be the return.
jtblack,
Agree, a late 1st round or early second rounder would be a win for the oilers
I think that would be with The Edmonton organization. I do believe that there were mistakes made by both sides which is the norm with these sort of conflicts.
No, and this isn’t my list (that came out June 1) this is me guessing that Sanderson’s range of skills will see him rise.
How do you trade player’s for picks when they’re still playing, also draft pick implications like Mike Green games played can’t see the draft until a week after the Stanley Cup is won. If your a future high end draft pick or even a top 50 why would you risk Injury by playing and tumbling down the ranking by 10-15 spots. You’ll be rolling the dice you might improve your stock as well if you come shooting out of the gate in whatever league your playing in the fall.