My City Was Gone

Later this month, the NHL will run its draft lottery. Reading the tea leaves, I suspect late September will see the draft, as teams will want to pick these kids before junior games get underway. A high draft pick injured pre-draft isn’t going to help anyone. Today, I’ve decided to do a mock draft. A complete first-round followed by an Oilers mock. Let’s get started.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

No. 1 DETROIT RED WINGS: LW Alexis Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL. An easy choice for Steve Yzerman in his second draft as DRW’s general manager. Potential to be a franchise player, NHL ready. I imagine he’ll take a few shifts with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha but it’s anyone’s guess how he is deployed in his first season.

No. 2 OTTAWA SENATORS: LC Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL. He’s a big man who has terrific skill, speed and a very bright future. He doesn’t get a lot of credit for goal scoring due to other skills, but he can rip it. Senators are building a fine group of forwards, Byfield and Brady Tkachuk on the same line is a scary thought.

No. 3 OTTAWA SENATORS: LC Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL. The Senators take a speedy, brilliant offensive force in Stutzle. Added to the other young forwards, and Byfield, the Sens are building a fantastic team of the future.

No. 4 LOS ANGELES KINGS: RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SHL. He is my favorite player in the draft and represents a perfect fit for the Kings. Tremendous sniper, he joins a growing list (Alex Turcotte, Alex Kaliyev, Gabriel Vilardi) of impressive offensive forwards on the coast.

No. 5 ANAHEIM DUCKS: LC Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL. Another ridiculous skill forward in a draft that has tremendous promise. His skill set includes stealth thefts via backchecks ala Nuge and intelligent two-way play. This is a fantastic player at this number.

No. 6 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: LC Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL. The final high skill OHL forward gives the Devils a future winger for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. He’s a shooter, great match of player and team.

No. 7 BUFFALO SABRES: LC Anton Lundell, Helsinki Liiga. He’s a big pivot with skill and two-way ability, plus he is a more mature player physically than some of the other players in the draft. Complete player.

NO. 8 MONTREAL CANADIENS: LHD Jake Sanderson, US National Team (USHL). After a long run on skilled forwards, Sanderson is the first defenseman off the board. He is big, strong, fast, and has a great shot.

NO. 9 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: LW Lucas Raymond, Frolunda (SHL). Creative winger is magic on the power play and owns great vision and passing ability. Falls because his SHL season wasn’t grand and he’s undersized, but he could make a lot of teams pay for passing on him.

NO. 10 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: RHD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL. Absolute steal at this point in the draft (I have him No. 5) but he’s 5.11, 175 and teams shy away from defenseman that small. I think he’s a home run.

NO. 11 MINNESOTA WILD: RC Seth Jarvis, Portland WHL. Great speed and skill, he also owns an impressive shot. Minnesota badly needs offensive punch, and even though Jarvis is a couple of years away, his potential makes him worth this pick.

NO. 12 WINNIPEG JETS: RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL. He spiked at the right time and at this point has enough positive indicators to go inside the top 10 overall. One of the best scorers in the draft, good speed and he’s a little bigger than some of the smaller wingers ahead of him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went top-10 overall.

NO. 13 NY RANGERS: LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL. One of the players I’m sure will go higher than I have him, Guhle is a mobile defender who can defend and play a complementary offensive role. His combination of speed, size (6.02, 186) and coverage makes him attractive to a team like New York. I bet Edmonton likes him, too.

NO. 14 FLORIDA PANTHERS: LW Dylan Holloway, Wisconsin NCAA. Big winger is a September 2001 who played college hockey and delivered enough offense to be considered here. It’s more likely he’ll have a career as a two-way winger, but he was 17 when he went to camp and scored 8 goals as a freshman. Intriguing player.

NO. 15: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL. I’d love to see him fall to Edmonton but creative righty centers are always in vogue. He’s a smart player and has the range of skills.

NO. 16 CALGARY FLAMES: RW Noel Gunler, Lulea (SHL). Another scoring winger and another good match if he falls to Edmonton. The Flames used to be miserable at the draft, now they’re brilliant. One of the best shots in the draft.

NO. 17 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: G Yaroslav Askarov, St. Petersburg VHL. The Devils have chosen a goalie in the first round three times, and I believe Askarov will represent too much value to pass on at this point.

NO. 18 NASHVILLE PREDATORS: LC Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL. A friend to his coach, Zary manages to deliver offense via creativity while also making safe plays with the puck consistently. He’s less dynamic than the other forwards in the top 20 but deadly effective.

NO. 19 CAROLINA HURRICANES: LHD Jeremie Poirer, Saint John QMJHL. A brilliant offensive defenseman with perhaps the most dynamic skill set among blue liners in this draft. His coverage and attention to defensive detail are the reason he isn’t a top-10 pick.

NO. 20 EDMONTON OILERS: RW Dawson Mercer, Chicoutimi QMJHL. Grabbing Mercer in the first round of the 2020 draft will give Edmonton three legit scoring prospects on RW (Kailer Yamamoto, Raphael Lavoie). Mercer’s draft year NHLE (31.8) is between Yamamoto’s (37.7) and Lavoie’s (27.4) in their respective draft seasons, and that seems right in terms of projection.

  • No. 21: Ottawa Senators: RHD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL.
  • No. 22: Dallas Stars: LHD Ryan O’Rourke, SS Marie OHL.
  • No. 23: NY Rangers: LW Ridly Greig, Brandon WHL.
  • No. 24: Minnesota Wild: LC Marat Khusnutdinov, St. Petersburg MHL.
  • No. 25: Philadelphia Flyers: RW John Peterka, Munich DEL
  • No. 26: San Jose Sharks: LC Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL
  • No. 27: Colorado Avalanche: LW Rodion Amirov, Ufa KHL
  • No. 28: Vegas Golden Knights: RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL.
  • No. 29: Washington Capitals: LHD Shakir Mukhamadullin, Ufa KHL
  • No. 30: St. Louis Blues: LW Brendan Brisson, Chicago USHL
  • No. 31: Anaheim Ducks: LW Lukas Reichel, Berlin DEL

OILERS MOCK

No. 20: RW Dawson Mercer. Similar to Yamamoto in that Mercer should develop into a legit offensive threat if everything works out. He’s 6.0, 181, aggressive in puck pursuit and has a great release. Oilers fans should be thrilled if Mercer falls to Edmonton. He did have a wrist injury that ended his season but is a fantastic young player.

No. 82: RC Justin Sourdif. I don’t know when he’ll go but if he can play center in the NHL getting him at 82 would be a home run. Great skater, NHLE (23.5) suggests he might score enough to make the NHL and he’s got a great motor.

No. 144: LC Jakob Konecny. Last year’s draft put a great emphasis on speed and skill, and Konecny is a similar talent to Maxim Denezhkin a year ago. Undersized, fast and skilled.

No. 175 LC Elliot Ekmark. Great skater, skilled and can score off the rush with a quality shot. He’s 5.09, that’s the drag, but at No. 144 he’s good value.

No. 208 LW Pavel Gogolev. I have a good memory and have valued Gogolev since his first draft eligible season (2018) when he scored 30 in the OHL and slipped through. He is not fast but can score goals.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we talk hockey, soccer and more. At 10:20, Bruce McCurdy will swing by to discuss Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and James Neal. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will give his picks for the Blue-Emu 500 (Nascar) race tonight and we’ll chat about UFC Fight Island. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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96 Responses to "My City Was Gone"

  1. ArmchairGM says:

    Looking at this list and thinking Holland is going to try to pick up another 1st using Puljujarvi – if Jesse still won’t sign. Here are likely targets:

    #19 – Carolina (from Toronto)
    #21 – Ottawa (from NYI)
    #23 – NYR (from Carolina)
    #25 – Minnesota (from Pittsburgh)

    Some of these teams have been linked to JP before, now they have an extra pick right in the heart of the 1st round. How convenient.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, you think they will do the draft before the season ends?

    They will then be back to figuring out how to determine draft order for the 16 real playoff teams, no?

    I understand it will be weird for a guy like Lafreniere to head back to the CHL when he’s likely to be NHL ready and playing in the NHL come January but I think they will work out logistics with the CHL on those types of matters.

    Also a chance for the top end junior guys to may go and play in Europe in the fall – not the KHL but places with out clauses available – I think the European leagues have a better chance of starting up in the fall in any event.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, you think they will do the draft before the season ends?

    They will then be back to figuring out how to determine draft order for the 16 real playoff teams, no?

    I understand it will be weird for a guy like Lafreniere to head back to the CHL when he’s likely to be NHL ready and playing in the NHL come January but I think they will work out logistics with the CHL on those types of matters.

    Also a chance for the top end junior guys to may go and play in Europe in the fall – not the KHL but places with out clauses available – I think the European leagues have a better chance of starting up in the fall in any event.

    I think they’ll hold the rest of the lottery after the play-in is over, and then possibly hold the draft on a day or two that hockey playoffs are at rest. jmo.

  4. cowboy bill says:

    How about New Jersey with 3 picks , 6 10 &17 .
    JP to the Devils for that 17th pick would be tremendous .

  5. Darth Tu says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll hold the rest of the lottery after the play-in is over, and then possibly hold the draft on a day or two that hockey playoffs are at rest. jmo.

    I’ve not been reading too much into what the rumours are re: draft. Is there any rush from a player perspective to have the draft before the end of the playoffs due to college or junior teams training camps getting underway? Would that even have an impact?

  6. Darth Tu says:

    cowboy bill:
    How about New Jersey with 3 picks , 6 10 &17 .
    JP to the Devils for that 17th pick would be tremendous .

    I’d love that, but as it stands is he worth the 17th pick overall in a deep draft? I’d love to say yes.

    I’m holding out hope for a second round pick + prospect that can ripen in Bakersfield. Anything above that is music. A late first round pick would also be music at this point.

    I’d still rather Jesse had worked out here though. Damn frustrating.

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, you think they will do the draft before the season ends?

    They will then be back to figuring out how to determine draft order for the 16 real playoff teams, no?

    I understand it will be weird for a guy like Lafreniere to head back to the CHL when he’s likely to be NHL ready and playing in the NHL come January but I think they will work out logistics with the CHL on those types of matters.

    Also a chance for the top end junior guys to may go and play in Europe in the fall – not the KHL but places with out clauses available – I think the European leagues have a better chance of starting up in the fall in any event.

    Lowetide: I think they’ll hold the rest of the lottery after the play-in is over, and then possibly hold the draft on a day or two that hockey playoffs are at rest. jmo.

    Why not hold the draft in November, after the Cup has been awarded? I find it rather doubtful that the CHL seasons will start before Christmas.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    does JP have any more value than Yak did in 2016?

    I hope they can convince him to stick

  9. Lowetide says:

    https://www.thetelegram.com/sports/regional-sports/qmjhl-targeting-an-oct-1-start-date-for-the-2020-21-season-456890/

    That’s October 1. If Lafreniere were to suffer a major injury it would have massive impact on his value. More likely draft eligibles sit out, which may be the solution.

  10. ArmchairGM says:

    cowboy bill:
    How about New Jersey with 3 picks , 6 10 &17 .
    JP to the Devils for that 17th pick would be tremendous .

    Yes. Yes, that would be tremendous. Maybe Jarvis falls that far. Getting Jarvis and Khusnutdinov this draft would be a huge boost for the system. Now we just need to find a way to get an early 2nd in order to land Ponomarev… maybe Holland would trade #20 to San Jose for #26 + #34? Assuming Khusnutdinov is still available at 26, of course, that would result in an ideal draft in my eyes.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    https://www.thetelegram.com/sports/regional-sports/qmjhl-targeting-an-oct-1-start-date-for-the-2020-21-season-456890/

    That’s October 1. If Lafreniere were to suffer a major injury it would have massive impact on his value. More likely draft eligibles sit out, which may be the solution.

    Fair point.

  12. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    https://www.thetelegram.com/sports/regional-sports/qmjhl-targeting-an-oct-1-start-date-for-the-2020-21-season-456890/

    That’s October 1. If Lafreniere were to suffer a major injury it would have massive impact on his value. More likely draft eligibles sit out, which may be the solution.

    I doubt Lafreniere is going to report to his junior team. Why would he? He might practice with them, but he won’t play (until he has signed his ELC).

  13. Hitman77 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    does JP have any more value than Yak did in 2016?

    I hope they can convince him to stick

    I’m thinking Jesse is worth a late second/early third. If Holland can squeeze out a first, he’s a miracle worker.

  14. Jordan says:

    How much value does Jesse and the 21st Overall have this year?

    If you look at Jesse as a 4th OV and ad the 21st pick, does that move you up to 3rd OV that Ottawa has?

    Could you get an earlier 1st rounder than our pick and a second? Or a later 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd?

    There have been so many draft picks traded this year, some of the teams picking will have multiple extra picks in the first 3 rounds. Gotta be an opportunity to get value for JP here.

    Very curious to see how it plays out, which draft picks move, for what, and who we draft with them.

  15. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand it will be weird for a guy like Lafreniere to head back to the CHL when he’s likely to be NHL ready and playing in the NHL come January but I think they will work out logistics with the CHL on those types of matters.

    The CHL won’t be playing in the fall. Perhaps January, but that depends. Without fans in attendance, how many teams are viable?

  16. Hitman77 says:

    LT, you had Sanderson being the first d-man off the board over Drysdale. Did his size give him the advantage?

  17. defmn says:

    Hitman77:
    LT, you had Sanderson being the first d-man off the board over Drysdale.Did his size give him the advantage?

    And Mercer ranked 10th but going 20th to the Oilers.

  18. Eh Team says:

    Jordan: If you look at Jesse as a 4th OV and ad the 21st pick, does that move you up to 3rd OV that Ottawa has?

    You can’t look at Jesse as a 4th OV anymore. The value in picking that high up in the draft is that you can expect to hit on an impact player that has immediate impact. Maybe you get a 2nd rounder for him. But teams will also look at Edmonton’s situation, where the player refuses to play for them. No team should offer equal value but they should expect a further discount.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Imagine if Kaiden Guhle drops and the Oilers take another left shot D……

  20. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Looking at this list and thinking Holland is going to try to pick up another 1st using Puljujarvi – if Jesse still won’t sign. Here are likely targets:

    #19 – Carolina (from Toronto)
    #21 – Ottawa (from NYI)
    #23 – NYR (from Carolina)
    #25 – Minnesota (from Pittsburgh)

    Some of these teams have been linked to JP before, now they have an extra pick right in the heart of the 1st round. How convenient.

    Yes please!

  21. Hitman77 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Imagine if Kaiden Guhle drops and the Oilers take another left shot D……

    Perhaps Holland is run out of town then. Lol.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Looking at this list and thinking Holland is going to try to pick up another 1st using Puljujarvi – if Jesse still won’t sign. Here are likely targets:

    #19 – Carolina (from Toronto)
    #21 – Ottawa (from NYI)
    #23 – NYR (from Carolina)
    #25 – Minnesota (from Pittsburgh)

    Some of these teams have been linked to JP before, now they have an extra pick right in the heart of the 1st round. How convenient.

    Do you think any would be willing to give up that pick straight up or would there be more pieces?

    WIthout going through their rosters, I would imagine that any GM would be hesitant to give up a large-value expansion draft exempt asset (i.e. first round pick) for an asset that would need to be protected at this stage – unless they thing the trade “puts them over the top”.

  23. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Imagine if Kaiden Guhle drops and the Oilers take another left shot D……

    Another Darnell Nurse?

  24. N64 says:

    Hitman77: I’m thinking Jesse is worth a late second/early third.If Holland can squeeze out a first, he’s a miracle worker.

    The miracle I expect from Holland is Jesse at Oilers camp . He’s not worth as much until he’s ready to bet on himself.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you think any would be willing to give up that pick straight up or would there be more pieces?

    WIthout going through their rosters, I would imagine that any GM would be hesitant to give up a large-value expansion draft exempt asset (i.e. first round pick) for an asset that would need to be protected at this stage – unless they thing the trade “puts them over the top”.

    A pick around the 19-25 range seems reasonable value, I think. I posted the link to this the other day but not the text so I’m not sure how many have seen it:

    Here’s an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

    https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

    Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #19 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

    So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi’s chances of becoming a top player? I’ll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I’m not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn’t written yet), and I’m ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

    As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old’s who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

    Beauvillier
    Boedker
    PM Bouchard
    Josefson
    Latendresse
    Lindholm
    Couterier
    Lucic
    O’Reilly
    Jost
    J Staal
    Zacha
    Turris
    Johansen
    Puljujarvi
    Seguin
    Tlusty
    Burmistrov
    Smith-Pelly
    Weiss
    McCann

    Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became “top” players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you’re left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

    Now we turn to Jesse’s 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I’m not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

    How many of them became “top” NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 – 7 pick in an average draft. I’m not going to say he’s worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don’t think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There’s a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

    If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he’s far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1756148

  26. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: A pick around the 19-25 range seems reasonable value, I think.I posted the link to this the other day but not the text so I’m not sure how many have seen it:

    Here’s an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

    https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

    Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #19 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

    So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi’s chances of becoming a top player? I’ll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I’m not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn’t written yet), and I’m ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

    As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old’s who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

    Beauvillier
    Boedker
    PM Bouchard
    Josefson
    Latendresse
    Lindholm
    Couterier
    Lucic
    O’Reilly
    Jost
    J Staal
    Zacha
    Turris
    Johansen
    Puljujarvi
    Seguin
    Tlusty
    Burmistrov
    Smith-Pelly
    Weiss
    McCann

    Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became “top” players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you’re left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

    Now we turn to Jesse’s 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I’m not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

    How many of them became “top” NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 – 7 pick in an average draft. I’m not going to say he’s worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don’t think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There’s a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

    If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he’s far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1756148

    How many spots in the draft does baggage cost him?

  27. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you think any would be willing to give up that pick straight up or would there be more pieces?

    WIthout going through their rosters, I would imagine that any GM would be hesitant to give up a large-value expansion draft exempt asset (i.e. first round pick) for an asset that would need to be protected at this stage – unless they thing the trade “puts them over the top”.

    Without looking either, most teams will be protecting 7F/3D. So it would be easier for them to protect Jesse than the Oilers if they do protect 4F/4D.

  28. jp says:

    Rondo: Another Darnell Nurse?

    Not that the Oilers need another D, but Nurse would be great value at 21, no?

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: How many spots in the draft does baggage cost him?

    I’m not sure he’s taking any baggage with him. All his beefs are in Edmonton, right?

  30. defmn says:

    N64: The miracle I expect from Holland is Jesse at Oilers camp . He’s not worth as much until he’s ready to bet on himself.

    Or he leaves him in Finland to think about things for another year.

    I guess I am one of the people here who wonders how there is so much complaining about value loss when it comes to – say – Kassian or Chiasson’s contracts to take contemporary examples; or complaints about value lost in the Hall trade to take an issue that never ends – but are more than happy to turn a 3OV into a second round draft pick “because something is better than nothing”.

    If I am Holland I hold and wait unless there is something tangible coming back. If there is nothing tangible coming back the majority of the loss is already gone.

  31. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not sure he’s taking any baggage with him. All his beefs are in Edmonton,right?

    I think he ends up in Carolina with his close buddy Aho and the deal happens on the draft table. Could be a hell of a deal for both teams.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: I think he ends up in Carolina with his closebuddy Aho and the deal happens on the draft table. Could be a hell of a deal for both teams.

    I agree with this. Carolina is the most likely destination IMO.

  33. N64 says:

    defmn: Or he leaves him in Finland to think about things for another year.

    I guess I am one of the people here who wonders how there is so much complaining about value loss when it comes to – say – Kassian or Chiasson’s contracts to take contemporary examples; or complaints about value lost in the Hall trade to take an issue that never ends – but are more than happy to turn a 3OV into a second round draft pick “because something is better than nothing”.

    If I am Holland I hold and wait unless there is something tangible coming back. If there is nothing tangible coming back the majority of the loss is already gone.

    There is a weird notion out their that NHL trading is an efficient market and that you can sell at best offer without consequences.

    NHL GMs are in one big shark tank. You pay according to your reputation and no GM is going to undercut their reputation, especially when they move to an overpay location.

    When JP is ready to be on himself in Edmonton his trade value will go up and he can be moved once he’s shown he’s got NHL game. Or he might want to stay here by then.

    Or he spends another year in Finland and sends the highlight reel to Seattle.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LT: Very good guess on where Askarov might go. 17th overall, but already NJD’s 3rd pick. He’s widely hyped as first-round talent, but a team that already has picked two skaters might be more willing to invest in a goalie. 6-10-17 F-D-G is a realistic scenario.

    On the other hand they really should trade that #17 for a young RW who could play with Hischier or Hughes, amirite?

  35. RonnieB says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll hold the rest of the lottery after the play-in is over, and then possibly hold the draft on a day or two that hockey playoffs are at rest. jmo.

    Wouldn’t that require another change in the draft rules? I thought picks 28 thru 31 are decided based on results of the Conference and Cup Finals.

  36. jtblack says:

    IMO, no way KH gets a 1st for JP inside the Top 21 for JP.

    Would love if he did, bit don’t see it

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll hold the rest of the lottery after the play-in is over, and then possibly hold the draft on a day or two that hockey playoffs are at rest. jmo.

    Could be – I think (and hope) you are wrong about the draft date – I think they’ll wait until completion – 2nd lottery, if there is one, definitely before the last two real rounds.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: I’ve not been reading too much into what the rumours are re: draft. Is there any rush from a player perspective to have the draft before the end of the playoffs due to college or junior teams training camps getting underway? Would that even have an impact?

    Its going to be interesting to hear what they settle on.

    Logistically, assuming camps mid-July so the play-in about a week in to August, it’ll be done around the end of August.

    The 2nd lottery, if there is one, will be around that point – I don’t suspect they’ll have the actual draft until October when all is complete.

    I would assume most draft eligible players would go to their junior camps and start their junior seasons (if the can start on time) but there will be an arrangement in place that they can leave for NHL camps (and stay in the NHL team wants to keep them).

    I mean, Lafreniere will likely head to his NHL camp and stay but Drysdale and Rosi will likely head to NHL camps and then back to their junior teams.

    Europe is an option for these top players as well.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Why not hold the draft in November, after the Cup has been awarded? I find it rather doubtful that the CHL seasons will start before Christmas.

    I agree with this – even though the president of the QMJHL has expressed their intent to start in October.

    As per my previous posts, there will be some interesting logistics if the CHL does start prior to the NHL draft but they can be worked around.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Fair point.

    It is a fair point although I’m not sure many will sit out – Lafreniere and some of the other higher ends very well may but I would think most would report to their junior teams.

    There is always major injury risk, sure, but the vast majority are going to head back to junior after NHL camps and will be unsigned and the injury risk is exactly the same, no?

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: The CHL won’t be playing in the fall.Perhaps January, but that depends.Without fans in attendance, how many teams are viable?

    You are potentially right but, as of now, the junior leagues are aiming for a full 68 games starting in October.

    I don’t know the economics, and it might not be viable without fans, but we don’t know right now – also, October is a ways away, there could be a limited amount of “fans in the stands” permitted in many jurisdictions by then.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: The miracle I expect from Holland is Jesse at Oilers camp . He’s not worth as much until he’s ready to bet on himself.

    That would definitely be ideal.

    Of course, he wasn’t able to create that miracle last season.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Without looking either, most teams will be protecting 7F/3D. So it would be easier for them to protect Jesse than the Oilers if they do protect 4F/4D.

    Sure but the point is that, in my opinion, any team trading a very high-value asset that is expansion exempt for an asset that isn’t expansion exempt would only do so with great caution – Jesse isn’t a “sure bet” – sure, neither is the 1st round pick but the exempt status and the years of team control, etc.

    I don’t see it.

  44. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: A pick around the 19-25 range seems reasonable value, I think.I posted the link to this the other day but not the text so I’m not sure how many have seen it:

    Here’s an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

    https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

    Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #19 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

    So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi’s chances of becoming a top player? I’ll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I’m not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn’t written yet), and I’m ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

    As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old’s who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

    Beauvillier
    Boedker
    PM Bouchard
    Josefson
    Latendresse
    Lindholm
    Couterier
    Lucic
    O’Reilly
    Jost
    J Staal
    Zacha
    Turris
    Johansen
    Puljujarvi
    Seguin
    Tlusty
    Burmistrov
    Smith-Pelly
    Weiss
    McCann

    Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became “top” players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you’re left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

    Now we turn to Jesse’s 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I’m not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

    How many of them became “top” NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 – 7 pick in an average draft. I’m not going to say he’s worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don’t think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There’s a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

    If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he’s far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1756148

    Very well thought out and layed out for us to see. I believe he is a plug and play third line winger with all the tools to be a top six player for ten plus years.

  45. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Could be – I think (and hope) you are wrong about the draft date – I think they’ll wait until completion – 2nd lottery, if there is one, definitely before the last two real rounds.

    How do you trade player’s for picks when they’re still playing, also draft pick implications like Mike Green games played can’t see the draft until a week after the Stanley Cup is won. If your a future high end draft pick or even a top 50 why would you risk Injury by playing and tumbling down the ranking by 10-15 spots. You’ll be rolling the dice you might improve your stock as well if you come shooting out of the gate in whatever league your playing in the fall.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Hitman77:
    LT, you had Sanderson being the first d-man off the board over Drysdale.Did his size give him the advantage?

    No, and this isn’t my list (that came out June 1) this is me guessing that Sanderson’s range of skills will see him rise.

  47. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not sure he’s taking any baggage with him. All his beefs are in Edmonton,right?

    I think that would be with The Edmonton organization. I do believe that there were mistakes made by both sides which is the norm with these sort of conflicts.

  48. McNuge93 says:

    jtblack,

    Agree, a late 1st round or early second rounder would be a win for the oilers

  49. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    LT: Very good guess on where Askarov might go. 17th overall, but already NJD’s 3rd pick. He’s widely hyped as first-round talent, but a team that already has picked two skaters might be more willing to invest in a goalie. 6-10-17 F-D-G is a realistic scenario.

    On the other hand they really should trade that #17 for a young RW who could play with Hischier or Hughes, amirite?

    Lol. I’m more conservative on JP’s value. Suspect a second rounder will be the return.

  50. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: Or he leaves him in Finland to think about things for another year.

    I guess I am one of the people here who wonders how there is so much complaining about value loss when it comes to – say – Kassian or Chiasson’s contracts to take contemporary examples; or complaints about value lost in the Hall trade to take an issue that never ends – but are more than happy to turn a 3OV into a second round draft pick “because something is better than nothing”.

    If I am Holland I hold and wait unless there is something tangible coming back. If there is nothing tangible coming back the majority of the loss is already gone.

    I believe your thinking is spot on. The mistakes that brought Jesse and the Oilers to this impasse are not of Holland’s making. The only way he gets any dirt on his record is if he lets Jesse go for pennies on the dollar. Jesse’s agent should be feeling some pressure assuming he is even a little astute, as Holland is playing with house money. Jesse is betting an NHL career. Both Jesse and his agent are bleeding money each year this continues. I would think it is also not great for the agents career, earnings or reputation. On a a 1 to 10 scale of stupid this standoff is off the chart.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: Wouldn’t that require another change in the draft rules? I thought picks 28 thru 31 are decided based on results of the Conference and Cup Finals.

    Correct – it would have to be agreed upon – probably including in the vote that will be done at some point that sets out all the parameters, logistics and protocols for stage 3, stage 4, the off-season, and economic matters relating to both the current season and next season.

    The number of matters currently being negotiated is massive.

    Also, its not just the last 4 teams, all playoff teams are subject to re-seeded draft order.

    If the Bruins lose in the first round, they’ll draft 24th.

  52. theWaxCollector says:

    I get a funny feeling in mysack every time I watch Mysak highlights… can’t help but feel he’ll be a keeper.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    IMO, no way KH gets a 1st for JP inside the Top 21 for JP.

    Would love if he did, bit don’t see it

    I don’t see it either and that’s just value between the assets and not even taking in to account expansion draft implications – which I’m sure all GMs will be very live to in any transaction prior to Seattle.

  54. defmn says:

    pts2pndr: I believe your thinking is spot on. The mistakes that brought Jesse and the Oilers to this impasse are not of Holland’s making. The only way he gets any dirt on his record is if he lets Jesse go for pennies on the dollar. Jesse’s agent should be feeling some pressure assuming he is even a little astute, as Holland is playing with house money. Jesse is betting an NHL career. Both Jesse and his agent are bleeding money each year this continues. I would think it is also not great for the agents career, earnings or reputation. On a a 1 to 10 scale of stupid this standoff is off the chart.

    I just don’t see any upside for Holland to do anything. I suppose if there is somebody available in the 2nd round that the Oilers have rated as a first round talent it might move him to make a phone call at the draft but that is not a likely scenario.

    I think Holland is a “use all the time you have” kind of guy and if a 2nd rounder is your best play that is about 3-4 years of draft & development before you get your 30% chance the new guy is worth anything so I see Holland waiting at least that long.

    I know I would. Business is business.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I believe your thinking is spot on. The mistakes that brought Jesse and the Oilers to this impasse are not of Holland’s making. The only way he gets any dirt on his record is if he lets Jesse go for pennies on the dollar. Jesse’s agent should be feeling some pressure assuming he is even a little astute, as Holland is playing with house money. Jesse is betting an NHL career. Both Jesse and his agent are bleeding money each year this continues. I would think it is also not great for the agents career, earnings or reputation. On a a 1 to 10 scale of stupid this standoff is off the chart.

    but is it pennies on the dollar? The value of the dollar is not the same as it was in 2016 or 2017

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    theWaxCollector:
    I get a funny feeling in mysack every time I watch Mysak highlights… can’t help but feel he’ll be a keeper.

    Ha!

    I am far from an expert on the non-drafted prospect but I’m intrigued by his ability to change league mid-season (shit, change continents, style of game, size of ice etc.) and pick right back up.

    From what I understand, he did NOT play with the like of Kaliyev at evens so I don’t think the worry about his stats being zoomed is material.

  57. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: but is it pennies on the dollar?The value of the dollar is not the same as it was in 2016 or 2017

    Every time an Oiler gets traded after a bad season this blog explodes with comments about selling low.

    And yet here we are once again beating the drums to sell low.

  58. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That would definitely be ideal.

    Of course, he wasn’t able to create that miracle last season.

    Sure. But the key thing for all parties is Jesse’s readiness to move forward. I’d suggest he’s closer to betting on himself. Hollands part is patience. We’ll see. If not let Jesse prove he belongs in Seattle instead of one of our D.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland contemplating holding camp in the US depending on the situation (and has discussed the same with upper management).

    No decisions are being made now and he’ll wait until the hubs are confirmed but, if the team is playing in the US, why have the players not currently in Canada (many) subject to 14 day quarantine upon return of there are other options?

  60. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: Sure. But the key thing for all parties is Jesse’s readiness to move forward. I’d suggest he’s closer to betting on himself. Hollands part is patience. We’ll see. If not let Jesse prove he belongs in Seattle instead of one of our D.

    I believe Jesse would have to be under contract to be a factor in the expansion draft, no?

  61. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: but is it pennies on the dollar?The value of the dollar is not the same as it was in 2016 or 2017

    If Jesse turns out to be a plug and play third liner or better and Holland moves him for a second round pick history will not be kind to Holland. Many of the same posters saying the best he can expect should be a second round pick would be leading the pitchfork parade and calling for his head.

  62. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: I believe Jesse would have to be under contract to be a factor in the expansion draft, no?

    .

    Will look again, but at first blush not seeing references to contract in terms of who can be claimed.

    For exposure equirements yes those have to be under contract

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Every time an Oiler gets traded after a bad season this blog explodes with comments about selling low.

    And yet here we are once again beating the drums to sell low.

    There is all but zero chance the value is going to increase at any point in the future.

    The only realistic way that happens is if the player plays for the Oilers and nothing points to that being a realistic option.

    I hope it does, it would change the conversation completely.

  64. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: I believe Jesse would have to be under contract to be a factor in the expansion draft, no?

    No. All the Oilers have to do is qualify Puljujarvi to retain his rights and make him eligible to be picked in the expansion draft.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Sure. But the key thing for all parties is Jesse’s readiness to move forward. I’d suggest he’s closer to betting on himself. Hollands part is patience. We’ll see. If not let Jesse prove he belongs in Seattle instead of one of our D.

    Sure but there is zero intel to suggest that Jesse has new readiness to move forward in the Oiler organization. What makes you suggest he is?

    I’m not suggesting that Holland trade him for less than Holland’s perceived value – if he can’t get what he wants, fine, another year.

    My preference is Jesse signed and in camp – I just don’t see it.

    With that said, he hasn’t re-signed in Karpat.

    He does have KHL offers – that would preclude him from coming over during the term of a contract.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I believe Jesse would have to be under contract to be a factor in the expansion draft, no?

    No, Seattle can take his RFA rights if the Oilers don’t protect him.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: If Jesse turns out to be a plug and play third liner or better and Holland moves him for a second round pick history will not be kind to Holland. Many of the same posters saying the best he can expect should be a second round pick would be leading the pitchfork parade and calling for his head.

    The value he may have on the ice for an acquiring team does not equate to his trade value.

  68. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: No, Seattle can take his RFA rights if the Oilers don’t protect him.

    Nope.

    Any player exposed must be under contract.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

  69. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is all but zero chance the value is going to increase at any point in the future.

    The only realistic way that happens is if the player plays for the Oilers and nothing points to that being a realistic option.

    I hope it does, it would change the conversation completely.

    And even less chance that the value is going to drop significantly.

    Once you are into 2nd round draft pick who might be worth something in 3-4 years just how far do you think the value can drop?

  70. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure but there is zero intel to suggest that Jesse has new readiness to move forward in the Oiler organization. What makes you suggest he is?

    I’m not suggesting that Holland trade him for less than Holland’s perceived value – if he can’t get what he wants, fine, another year.

    My preference is Jesse signed and in camp – I just don’t see it.

    With that said, he hasn’t re-signed in Karpat.

    He does have KHL offers – that would preclude him from coming over during the term of a contract.

    A year of experience. More confidence. Realizing waiting out Holland may be a slower track than going through training camp here if he’s ready to roll.

    Players generally do not concede in advance that they will fold on the next call.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Vancouver’s hub city proposal has been approved provincially and the province has been in touch with the federal government.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-nhl-hub-city-plan-gets-approval-from-provincial-health-officer-pm-advised-1.4978531

    As a result, I’ve written to the prime minister advising him that Vancouver and British Columbia would welcome the NHL as per the plan that was put together by the Vancouver Canucks, the NHL, and of course, public health officials,” he said.
    Horgan said provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has reviewed the plan, and it involves a “modification” to the quarantine plan that would allow a team to be a family entity or a bubble.
    “So those individuals within that organization would stay together in that one hotel. They would travel to Rogers Arena together in private transportation,” Horgan said. “Any testing would be the responsibility of the club. No interaction with the public would take place for the 14-day quarantine period.”

  72. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Nope.

    Any player exposed must be under contract.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

    Seems clear.

    “Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season”

  73. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Vancouver’s hub city proposal has been approved provincially and the province has been in touch with the federal government.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-nhl-hub-city-plan-gets-approval-from-provincial-health-officer-pm-advised-1.4978531

    As a result, I’ve written to the prime minister advising him that Vancouver and British Columbia would welcome the NHL as per the plan that was put together by the Vancouver Canucks, the NHL, and of course, public health officials,” he said.
    Horgan said provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has reviewed the plan, and it involves a “modification” to the quarantine plan that would allow a team to be a family entity or a bubble.
    “So those individuals within that organization would stay together in that one hotel. They would travel to Rogers Arena together in private transportation,” Horgan said. “Any testing would be the responsibility of the club. No interaction with the public would take place for the 14-day quarantine period.”

    Private corridor in Edmonton. Integrated bubble.

    Think this will be market driven. Likely all in US. Dys or Oil would be more logical but this is the NHL

  74. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Nope.

    Any player exposed must be under contract.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

    Those are the mandatory exposures to meet the minimal requirements for quality of players available. Seattle can choose anyone who is not protected or exempt. It doesn’t have to choose from the mandatory exposure list.

  75. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Those are the mandatory exposures to meet the minimal requirements for quality of players available.Seattle can choose anyone who is not protected or exempt.It doesn’t have to choose from the mandatory exposure list.

    Why would they?

    The rules stipulate Seattle must pick 20 players who are under contract.

  76. N64 says:

    defmn: Seems clear.

    “Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season”

    Ah but they can claim qualified RFA

  77. defmn says:

    godot10: Those are the mandatory exposures to meet the minimal requirements for quality of players available.Seattle can choose anyone who is not protected or exempt.It doesn’t have to choose from the mandatory exposure list.

    I missed this part earlier.

    “Seattle will select one player from each team excluding the Golden Knights for a total of 30 (14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goalies)”

  78. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: Ah but they can claim qualified RFA

    A qualifying offer is not a contract for the 20/21 season.

  79. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Why would they?

    The rules stipulate Seattle must pick 20 players who are under contract.

    20 players with contracts out of 30 selections.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Nope.

    Any player exposed must be under contract.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

    No, a minimum of 20 player under contract for the next season must be taken – implication that 10 unsigned players can be taken.

  81. RonnieB says:

    defmn: Harpers Hair: Nope.

    Any player exposed must be under contract.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

    Seems clear.

    “Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season”

    In other words, upon fulfilling the minimum requirement Seattle would still be able to select players from up to 10 (Vegas exempted) other teams that are not under contract; eg. a qualified but unsigned Jesse P.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: And even less chance that the value is going to drop significantly.

    Once you are into 2nd round draft pick who might be worth something in 3-4 years just how far do you think the value can drop?

    I don’t agree with the first statement at all.

    If Jesse simply repeats his last season, which was very very good – top 5 in scoring, leading the league in shots, top player on a good team, etc. – i think his value is likely to decrease from where it is this year – Jesse is a year older, a year closer to UFA, etc.

    If he has a lesser year, which is entirely possible, value decreases.

    He would have to have a materially better season in order for his value to increase in my opinion.

    I think the chances of his value decreasing are much higher than increasing at this point.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: A year of experience. More confidence. Realizing waiting out Holland may be a slower track than going through training camp here if he’sready to roll.

    Players generally do not concede in advance that they will fold on the next call.

    Yes, we can think about it logically and what we think is best for Jesse and his future but its been shown, time and time again, that he and his agent will make career path choices that don’t align with NHL success.

    We can speculate as to his mind-set and and change therein all we want but, at this point, there has been nothing to show that there will be such a chance.

    I hope you are right and there is.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Private corridor in Edmonton. Integrated bubble.

    Think this will be market driven. Likely all in US. Dys or Oil would be more logical but this is the NHL

    Edmonton or Vancouver would be logical if the federal government does not require players coming to Canada to quarantine at home for 14 days.

    Klefbom, Larsson, Nygard, Haas, Koskinen have all been able to skate and train in Europe, Neal has been able to train and skate in Nashville – as of now, if they come to Canada, they can’t do any of that for 14 days – they need to stay home.

    A reason why Holland is suggesting camp may be held in the US if the Oilers are placed in a US hub.

    I believe a team cohort style quarantine will be allowed by the feds.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Why would they?

    The rules stipulate Seattle must pick 20 players who are under contract.

    If McDavid was an RFA and unprotected, they would take him because they want the player.

    Of course that would never happen.

    If Puljujarvi is an RFA and unprotected, he would be available to Seattle to take – noone has said they will take him but that he’s available.

    You questioned the availability to take him, were proven wrong, dug in, were proven wrong again and continue to dig in.

    Will you admit you were wrong on this one?

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: A qualifying offer is not a contract for the 20/21 season.

    They do not have to have a contract to be claimed.

    They need to claim 20 players under contract – out of 30 picks – hence 10 player that do not have contracts can be claimed.

  87. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: If McDavid was an RFA and unprotected, they would take him because they want the player.

    Of course that would never happen.

    If Puljujarvi is an RFA and unprotected, he would be available to Seattle to take – noone has said they will take him but that he’s available.

    You questioned the availability to take him, were proven wrong, dug in, were proven wrong again and continue to dig in.

    Will you admit you were wrong on this one?

    You mean like you do, all the time?

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    When I’m wrong on something factual, absolutely.

    Whether its a good idea or not to buy out Neal is an opinion and a subjective-based discussion. Noone is right or wrong at this point.

    Whether an unsigned RFA can be claimed by Seattle in the expansion draft is a factual discussion and the the poster is wrong, double down on being wrong and remains wrong while disappearing.

    He must be waiting for Speeds to confirm.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, we can think about it logically and what we think is best for Jesse and his future but its been shown, time and time again, that he and his agent will make career path choices that don’t align with NHL success.

    The sign of a bad organisation is reacting to others, always waiting for others to make the first move so the losers can react etc.

    Oilers under Lowe/MacT through Chiarelli were the model of this appalling managerial style. Therefore what you say about JPs agent is substantially correct.

    Now under Holland, the Oilers are no longer waiting for others to act, they have their own agenda and are following it. In other words the model of a well run business organisation.

    Whatever transpires re JP, with Holland in charge am certain JP is not going to be getting dealt for a 2nd rounder like some of the more browbeaten folk around here think. Of course no browbeaten Oilers fan can understand this concept. Understanding this concept would mean they no longer think like losers.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Woj, lots of NBA player with uncertainty regarding the NBA’s return to play logistics.

    Something to keep an eye on as the concerns may be similar across leagues:

    Sources: Different players are expressing different concerns on restart, but consistent among them all: restrictions surrounding quarantine in Orlando. Players are talking on conference calls — and among each other. Both NBA and NBPA expected to further engage them on issues.

  91. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Woj, lots of NBA player with uncertainty regarding the NBA’s return to play logistics.

    Something to keep an eye on as the concerns may be similar across leagues:

    Sources: Different players are expressing different concerns on restart, but consistent among them all: restrictions surrounding quarantine in Orlando. Players are talking on conference calls — and among each other. Both NBA and NBPA expected to further engage them on issues.

    I’ve assumed consensus from NHL players might need to be as high as 90% up or down on the final proposal. Might be harder for NBA to get there than NHL.

  92. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t agree with the first statement at all.

    If Jesse simply repeats his last season, which was very very good – top 5 in scoring, leading the league in shots, top player on a good team, etc. – i think his value is likely to decrease from where it is this year – Jesse is a year older, a year closer to UFA, etc.

    If he has a lesser year, which is entirely possible, value decreases.

    He would have to have a materially better season in order for his value to increase in my opinion.

    I think the chances of his value decreasing are much higher than increasing at this point.

    As is so often when you respond to one of my posts you either mischaracterize what I wrote or just plain miss the point. If this is the best you can do can you please just not respond in future because it has become more annoying than it is worth.

    Thank you.

  93. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Final 2020 draft ranking from thehockeywriters.com where the author of the article says he’s seen every player on the list play. One interesting thing I took note of before the actual list is the way he ranks tiers.

    “Of course, you’re probably wondering about tiers. For me, it’s as follows:

    Tier 1: 1-2
    Tier 2: 3-6
    Tier 3: 7-11
    Tier 4: 12-21
    Tier 5: 22-47
    Tier 6: 47-86
    Tier 7: 87+

    If you checked out Larry Fisher’s top-500 final rankings (which you should if you haven’t), you would have read that his 21-45 tier was the hardest to nail down. My 22-47 tier is the same. These are all players that I think could go in the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did (well, nine of them). But it was tough to finalize which players to include in the first round and which were just outside.

    Other than that, I could probably add a tier in between 87 and 155, but at that point, it’s a bit too nitpicky for me. I’m content with the giant final tier as it stands. At that point in the draft, it’s pretty wide open in my opinion.”

    Source:
    “2020 NHL Draft: Josh Bell’s Top 155 Final Rankings” https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-final-rankings-bell/

  94. OilSafety says:

    defmn,

    That is a wonderful story.
    As a faith based person whose 10th anniversary is in a few weeks, I appreciate what they are doing. I will be grabbing this song tomorrow for sure.

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