Pipeline Progress

I love getting new math on prospects, especially far away players who we can’t see much. Around April-May of each year, some math genius drops the numbers and projections for various leagues. This year, it’s Pick224 math. The information isn’t perfect, and doesn’t resemble previous years, but it gives another angle all the same.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

PICK 224 AHL (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)

This is estimated points-per-60 in all game states, so that’s Bouchard, Benson, Currie, Yamamoto above, their power-play numbers are included here. It is primary points, so first assists and goals, and expressed in estimated 60-minutes format. The takeaway for me? Marody and McLeod. It’s go time for those two centers.

PICK 224 DISTANT LANDS (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)

I’m fascinated by the Russian, have to say. He’s an undersized skill center and he isn’t playing in the KHL, but that’s a fine number the young man posted. He’s a player to follow. Lavoie’s number is impressive in the QMJHL, Puljujarvi’s in the Liiga. Broberg has a pulse.

I’ve always felt the trade made sense, still do. Jesse Puljujarvi in Manhattan, where he could spend his early 20’s grinding his talents into a useful pain in the ass winger who scores 15-20 goals. I know a little about Rangers history and if I could give JP a gallon of Billy Fairbairn’s style he would flourish for 15 years. Fairbairn could score goals but was a fine checker and he could hit people without taking penalties. Genuine pain, effective player, Puljujarv has about half a foot in height and maybe 50 pounds on him. JP has all the tools to be a monster in Manhattan in a two-way role.

Lias Andersson had a good run in the SHL (12 points in 15 games) and he’s a center. Speed has been the issue, so there’s some Anton Lander in him, I think the Oilers would need to get a pick to make the deal close to even and I wouldn’t make it. That and a toonie gets you a coffee in Alberta today. Rangers have two first-round picks and a pair of third rounders, I’d keep Puljujarvi.

If the Rangers offered Andersson and a late first, would Holland pull the trigger?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun but difficult morning begins at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will join us to talk about Father’s Day, his podcast this week and a ghastly story involving all manner of abuse in the CHL. Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic has written a massive item on NHL free agency and Matt Iwanyk will tackle MLB’s latest. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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136 Responses to "Pipeline Progress"

  1. Todd Macallan says:

    Not a fan of Andersson by any stretch, but the addition of a 1st in a draft this deep would make me strongly consider that deal. That first could end up being a Jacob Perreault or JJ Peterka, among many other strong choices.

  2. Elgin R says:

    Lias Anderson – doesn’t score (9 pts in 66 games), takes penalties (33 pims in 66 games) and is not considered a great skater. Hard pass on this guy as he will probably not play in the NHL again. So, the deal would basically be JP for a late first. No, no, no!

    Maybe JP comes back and plays for the Oilers next year (which would be great) or you keep him for use as a sweetener for the Seattle (Krakken?) expansion draft. The Krakken select James Neal and the Oilers throw in JP. Would that be enough?

    Cooper ‘the song smith’ Marody is by his own account finally over his injury issues and is ready to play. He is most probably a tweener, but what he accomplished in 2018 / 2019 with the Condors makes you wonder if he could be a decent RC 3C. Internally the job opportunity is between him and Mcleod so one of them needs to step up.

  3. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Despite my initial warming to LA after watching highlights — his foot speed deficit is over rated — we should aim higher than him and a 1st round pick.

    Why not Georgiev, straight across?

  4. Harpers Hair says:

    The Canadian government has issued an executive order allowing the NHL to bypass the 14 day quarantine paving the way for a Canadian hub city.

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5618558?__twitter_impression=true

  5. JimmyV1965 says:

    I would be thrilled if the Oil could get a late first rounder for JP. I really doubt the Rangers are giving up Andersson and a first round pick. The Rangers second pick in the first round is 23 OV. There will be a very good prospect available then.

    Holland needs to have a quiet heart to heart with JP. If he’s willing to return to the team, that’s the best outcome for the team. If not, take the best deal you can get because the offers will almost certainly get worse next year.

    I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either. Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

  6. Eh Team says:

    JimmyV1965: I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either. Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

    Pretty sure Jones would be protected as Oilers will go 4 forwards and 4 d’men.

    As for a previous comment, why would Seattle take Neal to get JP when they could just select JP in the draft? Neal is just getting bought out this off season.

  7. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I would be thrilled if the Oil could get a late first rounder for JP.I really doubt the Rangers are giving up Andersson and a first round pick.The Rangers second pick in the first round is 23 OV.There will be a very good prospect available then.

    Holland needs to have a quiet heart to heart with JP. If he’s willing to return to the team, that’s the best outcome for the team. If not, take the best deal you can get because the offers will almost certainly get worse next year.

    I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either.Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

    Larsson’s contract expires. The Oilers protect 4-4-1. Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones Re-sign Larsson as a UFA.

    The OIlers might be able trade for a goaltender to protect, and expose Koskinen.

    Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto. I assume the Oilers will sign Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.

  8. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Larsson’s contract expires.The Oilers protect 4-4-1.Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones Re-sign Larsson as a UFA.

    The OIlers might be abletrade for a goaltender to protect, and expose Koskinen.

    Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto.I assume the Oilers will sign Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.

    Sure. Maybe they go 4-4-1. But if I’m Seattle, I would rather select AA than JP. The point I’m making is that it’s unlikely Seattle selects JP in the expansion draft. Hell, at this point Seattle would likely take Kassisn over JP.

  9. N64 says:

    godot10: The Oilers protect 4-4-1

    Concur. The extra 2 skaters with 7-3-1 is not a big deal. In all cases you only lose 1 players and should protect your best 8 skaters. If AA (or JP in Oilers jersey) makes a better case than Jones next year then you get 2 extra forwards, but that should be the afterthought not the driver.

  10. Todd Macallan says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Canadian government has issued an executive order allowing the NHL to bypass the 14 day quarantine paving the way for a Canadian hub city.

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5618558?__twitter_impression=true

    Interesting if not unexpected. Now we get to see where the NHLs priorities lie, either with player safety (Edm or Van) or media market (Tor).

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Not a fan of Anderson
    If that’s all we can get for JP just use him as Seattle bait

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping that Maxim Denezhkin can work his way up from the MHL/VHL to the KHL for Yaroslav this coming year. He did get in to one KHL game last year.

    A distant bell for sure but you never know how he develops as he matured in to an adult.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ya, I posted about Lias Andersson yesterday and his decision not to come back to join the Rangers for their “playoff run” even though he’s been asked.

    I did find it interesting that the organization asked him to come given he’s been suspended for refusing to report to the AHL and has been playing in Sweden.

    He did do well this past year in the SHL and I am intrigued about acquiring him (would need a big plus in a Jesse swap though) but am concerned that he would also refuse an AHL assignment in the Oilers organization.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andersson and a late first for Jesse? Pull the trigger. I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

    The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

    I’m not sure we need to be concerned with Andersson’s speed as a potential 3C – I mean look at Ryan Stome’s skating and his recent success as an NHL center.

  15. so polar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Andersson and a late first for Jesse?Pull the trigger.I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

    The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

    In addition to their own pick, NYR is receiving the later of Toronto/Carolina’s firsts as payment for Skjei. They’ll have one pick that makes it out of the play in round, you’d think. Although that’s by no means late – CF has them at 20&21 (Edm at 23) right now.
    I’d be overjoyed to get 20th overall for Jesse.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    Jim Matheson (@NHLbyMatty) Tweeted:
    Heard from a very reliable source that #Edmonton has been chosen as an @NHL playoffs hub city. Official announcement coming soon.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    so polar: In addition to their own pick, NYR is receiving the later of Toronto/Carolina’s firsts as payment for Skjei. They’ll have one pick that makes it out of the play in round, you’d think. Although that’s by no means late – CF has them at 20&21 (Edm at 23) right now.
    I’d be overjoyed to get 20th overall for Jesse.

    Good point – I forgot about their multiple picks.

    With that said, I think Jesse for a 1st is a long-shot let alone adding an intriguing prospect.

    I think the trade proposed by Kurt Leavins a while ago (what he “was hearing”) was indeed Andersson and first but for Jesse plus a prospect – we don’t know what level of prospect though.

  18. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Andersson and a late first for Jesse?Pull the trigger.I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

    The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

    I’m not sure we need to be concerned with Andersson’s speed as a potential 3C – I mean look at Ryan Stome’s skating and his recent success as an NHL center.

    I would be over the moon for LA and a 1st round pick ….

    I have never been in the “get the band back together” group. Don’t want Hall back. Didn’t want Yak back. Don’t want JP back.

    To me the JP situation is like dating the ex girlfriend again …. you start dating again and quickly realize why it didn’t work the first time ..

    We all blame the GM and coach for JP’s first “failed” foray into the NHL. But I believe there was some smoke around the fact the McDavid and Leon were not the biggest JP fans (playing style and personality) ….

    So I would suggest “SAIL ON JP” ….. let’s get a new prospect / picks and move forward ….

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

    Per McKenzie

  20. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

    Per McKenzie

    this is sort of expected, but at the same time, a large outbreak this quickly could jeopardize everything .. 🙁

  21. PennersPancakes says:

    Harpers Hair: Jim Matheson (@NHLbyMatty)

    Fake account with 61 followers. His handle is @nhl_by_matty with the 38 thousand followers.

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    No more slow boats for me. I like fast hockey. I think it leads to a better likelihood of sustaining contention as well. Connor needs a fast team.

  23. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

    Per McKenzie

    And that’s just phase 2 with only a few players back.

    What I’ll say next has nothing to do with the specific danger to player although obviously more dangerous to some coaches and other staff.

    One slip and you could have 10 cases inside a hub and at very best you have a long delay for competitive reasons or you’re all done, which the PA and NHL cannot afford.

    Let’s talk about that and we can call it the Benning effect. Not Matt. Fort.


    According to a release from U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, 640 new recruits arrived at Fort Benning and were medically screened and tested by medical professionals. At the time, four tested positive. All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.

    After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.

    All 640 recruits — which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment — were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.

    https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions

    To recap. Full 14 day quarantine missed one case. 22% attack rate a week later for cohort of 640. Not an isolated as the same thing happened at another location with a cohort of 500.

    The NHL host city plans will need to test way more than in this case and they’ll need to be wary of even one food service or room service or A/C or anything providing a single foothold. If you look at each series including staff and refs assigned to that series as one cohort each cohort needs to be protected and isolated from each other.

    Was ragging OP last night about Vegas being on the list if SAFETY really is first concern. It’s possible that Vegas can manage all of this, but you’d think the best chance is whoever presents the best plan with best isolation . A lower covid background is going to also be helpful when you realize even hotel staff (and the bus driver Edmonton won’t need) are still potential low frequency vectors. One slip and these guys are in close quarters #BenningEffect

  24. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    No more slow boats for me. I like fast hockey. I think it leads to a better likelihood of sustaining contention as well. Connor needs a fast team.

    so get rid of Benson?

  25. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

    Per McKenzie

    I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

  26. N64 says:

    Reja: I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

    ~ You can never thank any City of Florida enough ~ #greatgmmoments

  27. Reja says:

    N64: ~ You can never thank any City of Florida enough ~ #greatgmmoments

    When Dr. Fauci said he doesn’t think there will be a NFL season the other day because of a second wave outbreak I figured Gary’s goose was cooked right there.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Reja: I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

    Florida is going full Floridaman on the world. This is going to get ugly.
    But if they are thinking hockey they need to get every player and coach out of Florida Carolinas, Arizona and pretty much every southern state

  29. pts2pndr says:

    N64: Concur. The extra 2 skaters with 7-3-1 is not a big deal. In all cases you only lose 1 players and should protect your best 8 skaters. If AA (or JP in Oilers jersey) makes a better case than Jones next year then you get 2 extra forwards, but that should be the afterthought not the driver.

    So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

  30. N64 says:

    Reja: When Dr. Fauci said he doesn’t think there will be a NFL season the other day because of a second wave outbreak I figured Gary’s goose was cooked right there.

    The whole bubble thing gives them an excellent chance to complete the playoffs. But they absolutely need the best 2 plans they receive and then they need to improve them every day for maximum chances.

    Update: Right now US South is still working on the first wave peak. MLB can likely avoid 2nd wave if they finish before flu season provides cover for covid spread.

  31. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: Florida is going full Floridaman on the world.This is going to get ugly.
    But if they are thinking hockey they need to get every player and coach out of Florida Carolinas, Arizona and pretty much every southern state

    Good luck with that state sandwiched between Arizona and California.

  32. N64 says:

    pts2pndr: So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

    Nope. I’m saying you take your 8 best and Jones can prove he’s that next year. So can AA or Kass or JP or WL. (Age and cap factor in where it’s close, but potential is not enough)

  33. leadfarmer says:

    N64: Good luck with that state sandwiched between Arizona and California.

    It’s very obvious that Vegas will be a hotspot since they opened up their casinos.
    If they choose Vegas as a host city I don’t see the season completing.
    Pick unsexy cities with populations less than a million

  34. pts2pndr says:

    N64: Nope. I’m saying you take your 8 best and Jones can prove he’s that next year. So can AA or Kass or JP or WL. (Age and cap factor in where it’s close, but potential is not enough)

    That logic is why I say they go 7-3-1. Why not protect your best 10. I think our overall thought process is the same but my question is assuming Jones does progress as many think why would you not move a D for a position of need?

  35. N64 says:

    pts2pndr: That logic is why I say they go 7-3-1. Why not protect your best 10. I think our overall thought process is the same but my question is assuming Jones does progress as many think why would you not move a D for a position of need?

    Look at trading a D on its own merits. If you’d do it without the draft then of course you can execute that before the draft. One caution is that price for D might go down close to the draft.

    But the basic approach is still protect your best 8. At protection time it’s all about the 8th guy protected. If he’s a D then 9 & 10 are exposed. If he’s a F you get to protect 2 more forwards below 8. Main think is not to overthink this.

  36. jp says:

    Andersson and a 1st for Puljujarvi? Yes please.

  37. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

    One prays they take Kassian and the three years left on that contract, which is a over a million too much and two years too long for a 3rd line winger in his thirties.

    It is far easier to replace Kassian than it is to replace Jones.

  38. godot10 says:

    Adam Silver is taking the NBA into the heart of the Covid beast in Orlando as a courtesy to one of his biggest sponsors/broadcasters in Disney.

    #IamgoingtoCovidWorld

  39. N64 says:

    godot10:
    Adam Silver is taking the NBA into the heart of the Covid beast in Orlando as a courtesy to one of his biggest sponsors/broadcasters in Disney.

    #IamgoingtoCovidWorld

    NHL PA could still steer the convo away from Vegas, but I’d keep my on the NBA stars and see if they really sign off on that Disney cruise.

  40. jp says:

    Maxim Denezhkin 2.61.

    That’s a really impressive number indeed. I guess he’s getting only primary points? And not many goals are happening with him on the ice…

    I’m trying to figure it since he was only 4th on his team in scoring and pts/game. 52-19-25-44. He was +28 but the team seems to have been a powerhouse, he was only tied for 6th on his team (If he were suppressing GA he’d have a lower ETOI, but also a exceptional goal differential).

    Anyway, definitely an encouraging sign for a long long shot (drafted with pick 193).

  41. maudite says:

    JP or 2 x 2nd rounders lost in expansion (AA).

    options past that are Kass or JJ maybe?

    No doubt in my mind klef/nurse/bear/jones protected has more value in longer run than risking exposure of any of them to seatlle over forwards available. Decision on what 2 of those one LD might be best longer term isn’t a decision I’d let anyone else remove. Way more value in dealing quality D than any winger that remains available IMO.

    Coming out with
    Nurse – Bear
    Klef – Bouchard
    Jones – green/benning (pick your player 2 x under 2 M ish type level)

    Lag

    Is solid primary depth level.

    Figure it out from there as prospects push or cap concerns present themselves…seems obvious to me.

  42. jp says:

    Elgin R: Lias Anderson – doesn’t score (9 pts in 66 games), takes penalties (33 pims in 66 games) and is not considered a great skater. Hard pass on this guy as he will probably not play in the NHL again. So, the deal would basically be JP for a late first. No, no, no!

    Fun fact:

    Lias Andersson 5on5 P/60 – 0.77
    Jesse Puljujarvi 5on5 P/60 – 1.14
    Puljujarvi without McDavid P/60 – 0.84

    These are the career numbers for each player. All done in the 3 years after they were drafted (Andersson being picked the year after Puljujarvi).

    Most common 5on5 linemates for Andersson: Strome (129 minutes), Vesey, Lemieux, Fast, Nieves, Buchnevich, Chytil, Namestnikov (55 min). That’s everyone over 50 minutes (Andersson has played 624 minutes career). (only 7 minutes with Panarin if anyone’s wondering)
    Puljujarvi: Lucic (670), McDavid, Nuge, Strome, Khaira, Draisaitl, Caggiula, Maroon (154). That’s everyone over 100 minutes (Puljujarvi has played 1627 minutes total).

    I think Puljujarvi is the better player but I’m not certain the gap is a big as many want to believe. I don’t really know of course. But I found the above interesting.

  43. leadfarmer says:

    jp:
    Andersson and a 1st for Puljujarvi? Yes please.

    Add Georgiev too while they’re at it
    Koskinen and Georgiev would be a solid tandem

  44. jtblack says:

    PGA just announced a positive test from one of it’s players. Did not say if that player was in the Heritage Tourny this week.

    Nick Watney did WD after round 1. could be coincidence. Could be him …

    weird times. We wait

  45. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Andersson and 23OV for JP? Rangers would have to be desperate to make that trade. Even if you eventually flush Andersson, getting a late first for Jesse is a steal.

  46. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    I am firmly in the 7-3-1 camp if a pre-expansion draft deal can not be worked out. Protect your ten best. We just invested TWO second rounders to finally get Connor some help and you are going to give those up plus the asset acquired? Hell no. Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

  47. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Three in a row … I am coming for you OP.

  48. N64 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Protect your ten best.

    That’s a great idea — if it does not expose a D better than your 5th, 6th and 7th Forwards. Recall teams trying to move that one of 4 good D before the Vegas draft and getting weak offers by predatory GMs and then getting skinned alive making panicky deals with Vegas. Way too early to know what to do, but if its absolutely clear cut at the 8th spot you protect that guy.

    AA can certainly make the case that he needs to be protected.

  49. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Add Georgiev too while they’re at it
    Koskinen and Georgiev would be a solid tandem

    If Georgiev can be worked into a deal somehow that would be great.

  50. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Despite my initial warming to LA after watching highlights — his foot speed deficit is over rated — we should aim higher than him and a 1st round pick.

    Why not Georgiev, straight across?

    I know the ask on Georgiev has been high, but is he really all that? I’d think Andersson and a 1st would be a better return than Georgiev.

    (I may well be wrong but Georgiev strikes me as decent but likely not “the answer”)

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    I am firmly in the 7-3-1 camp if a pre-expansion draft deal can not be worked out. Protect your ten best. We just invested TWO second rounders to finally get Connor some help and you are going to give those up plus the asset acquired? Hell no. Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

    I don’t know if we should go 7-3-1 or 4-4 and I don’t think anyone will until this time next year. But if they do take AA, we are using those two second round picks to keep Jones or whoever else Seattle didn’t take. They are not wasted picks, even if they do take AA.

  52. godot10 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    I am firmly in the 7-3-1 camp if a pre-expansion draft deal can not be worked out. Protect your ten best. We just invested TWO second rounders to finally get Connor some help and you are going to give those up plus the asset acquired? Hell no. Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

    A teams 4th D plays way more hockey than a teams 5th forward. And they are much harder to find.

  53. jtblack says:

    Austin Matthews tests positive.

    could be bye bye playoffs for the NHL

  54. Reja says:

    godot10: A teams 4th D plays way more hockey than a teams 5th forward.And they are much harder to find.

    Young 4D’s on a dirt low contracts are very valuable If he solidifies himself next year no way they leave him exposed either he’s getting traded, protected or nurse or Kelfbom are gone.

  55. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: One prays they take Kassian and the three years left on that contract, which is a over a million too much and two years too long for a 3rd line winger in his thirties.

    It is far easier to replace Kassian than it is to replace Jones.

    We all have blind spots with certain players. Kassian, in my opinion has value at what he is payed. He would be a lot more difficult to replace than you might think!🙂

  56. Reja says:

    jtblack:
    Austin Matthews tests positive.

    could be bye bye playoffs for the NHL

    Either that are there’s going to be one hell of a lot of wavers being signed. Unless of course they deem NHL Hockey players essential workers.

  57. N64 says:

    Reja: Either that are there’s going to be one hell of a lot of wavers being signed. Unless of course they deem NHL Hockey players essential workers.

    ~ They could hire Jeff Probst to hand out the immunity cards to the recovered players ~

  58. who says:

    Elgin R:
    Lias Anderson – doesn’t score (9 pts in 66 games), takes penalties (33 pims in 66 games) and is not considered a great skater.Hard pass on this guy as he will probably not play in the NHL again.So, the deal would basically be JP for a late first.No, no, no!

    Maybe JP comes back and plays for the Oilers next year (which would be great) or you keep him for use as a sweetener for the Seattle (Krakken?) expansion draft.The Krakken select James Neal and the Oilers throw in JP.Would that be enough?

    Cooper ‘the song smith’ Marody is by his own account finally over his injury issues and is ready to play.He is most probably a tweener, but what he accomplished in 2018 / 2019 with the Condors makes you wonder if he could be a decent RC 3C.Internally the job opportunity is between him and Mcleod so one of them needs to step up.

    Why does Seattle have to take Neal to select JP?
    If the Oilers protect 4 and 4 JP will probably be exposed.

  59. godot10 says:

    Rondo: godot10,

    Again can you read charts?

    https://twitter.com/justin_hart

    Much of society can proceed with a low level of covid. (i.e. a level where hospital capacity is unstressed). A sports league cannot. Players are not really replaceable. A positive case means you likely lose several players for two weeks to month.

    Sports cannot really proceed unless their bubble has close to no covid. Any more than one case or two for the NHL and NBA in their bubble and they will be screwed.

  60. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: A teams 4th D plays way more hockey than a teams 5th forward.And they are much harder to find.

    But he will not be playing as a top four D! He is not better than either of Klefbom or Nurse. Because he played some games ( limited viewing ) and did okay as a injury replacement does not make him a top four D. He has value but only time will tell if his value is such that it warrant protecting Jones for the expansion draft.

  61. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: We all have blind spots with certain players. Kassian, in my opinion has value at what he is payed. He would be a lot more difficult to replace than you might think!🙂

    Depending on what I received from other teams I could see Francis (Seattle) possibly choosing Kassian as a veteran presence with good leader qualities.

  62. N64 says:

    godot10: Much of society can proceed with a low level of covid. (i.e. a level where hospital capacity is unstressed). A sports league cannot.Players are not really replaceable.A positive case means you likely lose several players for two weeks to month.

    Sports cannot really proceed unless their bubble has close to no covid.Any more than one case or two for the NHL and NBA in their bubble and they will be screwed.

    One case in the bubble has a good chance of going double digits as per the #BenningEffect. Hell getting through Stage 3 without losing players is going to be an issue for competitive balance. Training camp is going to need to tight too, so that the host city bubble quarantine process is your failsafe.

  63. jtblack says:

    Reja: Either that are there’s going to be one hell of a lot of wavers being signed. Unless of course they deem NHL Hockey players essential workers.

    TEAM – “I understand you have $35 million dollars in the bank, but we would like you to play, so we can make some money. Please this sign waiver that you won’t sue us if you die. Thank you.”

    PLAYER – “No.”

  64. Reja says:

    N64: ~ They could hire Jeff Probst to hand out the immunity cards to the recovered players ~

    The fat lady is tuning up her voice as we speak.

  65. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: But he will not be playing as a top four D! He is not better than either of Klefbom or Nurse. Because he played some games ( limited viewing ) and did okay as a injury replacement does not make him a top four D. He has value but only time will tell if his value is such that it warrant protecting Jones for the expansion draft.

    A teams 5th D will play way more hockey than a teams 5th forward.

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    N64: That’s a great idea — if it does not expose a D better than your 5th, 6th and 7th Forwards. Recall teams trying to move that one of 4 good D before the Vegas draft and getting weak offers by predatory GMs and then getting skinned alive making panicky deals with Vegas.Way too early to know what to do, but if its absolutely clear cut at the 8th spot you protect that guy.

    AA can certainly make the case that he needs to be protected.

    100%. To say “10 best” vs “8 best” is an oversimplification.

    Barring some sort of stupid deal like what Florida or Minnesota did with Vegas, a team will lose exactly ONE player. It’s not like they will lose #9 AND #10 if they protect 8.

    The question is actually dead simple. Would you rather lose your #4 D or your #5 F? If the former you go 7-3-1, if the latter 4-4-1.

    And as some have pointed out, it’s not just the player, it’s his contract. From a cap perspective, even if the Oilers think Kassian is “better than” Jones, his contract is not.

  67. jtblack says:

    Reja: The fat lady is tuning up her voice as we speak.

    made me laugh …

    I had dreamed of a Sunday in August with 6 NHL playoff games, starting at 11 a.m. MST and going through the night ….along with some PGA sprinkled in the afternoon …

    still hoping ….

  68. Reja says:

    jtblack: TEAM – “I understand you have $35 million dollars in the bank, but we would like you to play, so we can make some money.Please this sign waiver that you won’t sue us if you die.Thank you.”

    PLAYER – “No.”

    Totally different scenario but yesterday we seen a journeyman hockey player get the ball rolling on all of Junior hockey. I could see a case ( unless him and his bubble wife etc sign wavers) where a players family unit member dies of COVID that can be traced back to the player or bubble. This is the U.S.A if you have money you can sue, this is uncharted waters.

  69. Rondo says:

    Hockey Prospect final rankings

    https://hockeyprospect.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

    Some interesting rankings

  70. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: I could see Francis (Seattle) possibly choosing Kassian as a veteran presence with good leader qualities.

    LMAO

  71. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: TEAM – “I understand you have $35 million dollars in the bank, but we would like you to play, so we can make some money.Please this sign waiver that you won’t sue us if you die.Thank you.”

    PLAYER – “No.”

    TEAM – “No problem, we’re replacing you with an AHL player. Our business simply must survive. The NFL once used an entire league of scabs until the players returned.”

    PLAYER – “Where’s my agent…”

  72. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Hockey Prospect final rankings

    https://hockeyprospect.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

    Some interesting rankings

    I’ll say. The Robins ranking is fascinating.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Not a fan of Andersson by any stretch, but the addition of a 1st in a draft this deep would make me strongly consider that deal. That first could end up being a Jacob Perreault or JJ Peterka, among many other strong choices.

    Yup – not overly enthused by Andersson but, then again, high skill guy and a center – what if he fills that 3C spot? Ryan Strome isn’t a great skater either.

    I don’t think that the Oilers would be able to get a 1st rounder for Jesse let alone an intriguing prospect added to it.

    I would imagine the Rangers would want a Lagesson or Samorukov level prospect back.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    An update on the WHL.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/whl-teams-will-need-fans-seats-operate-next-season/sn-amp/

    Yes, I posted yesterday that the WHL said they are planning the October start and 68 games but they need at least half capacity fans.

    October seems aggressive.

    I think best case scenario – the CHL leagues and the AHL start along with the NHL in December.

  75. Reja says:

    hunter1909: LMAO

    He who laughs last… doesn’t get it.

  76. Reja says:

    hunter1909: TEAM – “No problem, we’re replacing you with an AHL player. Our business simply must survive. The NFL once used an entire league of scabs until the players returned.”

    PLAYER –“Where’s my agent…”

    In Alberta you have the right to refuse any job you deem unsafe under the labour laws. Big can of worms if this happens.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Canadian government has issued an executive order allowing the NHL to bypass the 14 day quarantine paving the way for a Canadian hub city.

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5618558?__twitter_impression=true

    We also talked about this article yesterday…..

    I know I repeat things so who am I to talk but…

  78. Rondo says:

    Lowetide: I’ll say. The Robins ranking is fascinating.

    We’ll see Monday what Bob McKenzie’s rankings look like.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Pretty sure Jones would be protected as Oilers will go 4 forwards and 4 d’men.

    As for a previous comment, why would Seattle take Neal to get JP when they could just select JP in the draft? Neal is just getting bought out this off season.

    Its fun to talk about it and speculate but its so hard to know this far in advance as there is so much in flux.

    If Jones solidifies himself as a legit 2nd pairing d-man, they will need to protect him (especially at $850k) leading to 4-4-1

    Nurse, Klef, Bear, Jones
    Drai, McDavid, Nuge, Yamamoto

    Sure, there is the potential to not re-sign Nuge but until after but I think that’s unlikely as too big of a risk.

    What is Benson pops? What is AA regains 30 goals.

    Yikes!

  80. jp says:

    jtblack: so get rid of Benson?

    Many thought Yamamoto wasn’t fast enough either.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Sure. Maybe they go 4-4-1. But if I’m Seattle, I would rather select AA than JP.The point I’m making is that it’s unlikely Seattle selects JP in the expansion draft.Hell, at this point Seattle would likely take Kassisn over JP.

    Don’t disagree.

    Here is hoping that things change in a year from now where Jesse has come back, put up 21G/52 points on McDavid’s right wing with AA putting up 33G/60 points on the left wing and Kassian is a great 3RW!

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan: Interesting if not unexpected. Now we get to see where the NHLs priorities lie, either with player safety (Edm or Van) or media market (Tor).

    If the bubble is created properly and the players adhere to the rules, the COVID situation in the city of the bubble shouldn’t really matters – noone in or out except under strict protocols.

    Of course, in practice, it won’t be quite as tight as it should be.

  83. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: We also talked about this article yesterday…..

    I know I repeat things so who am I to talk but…

    That’s odd.

    It was announced this morning.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: And that’s just phase 2 with only a few players back.

    What I’ll say next has nothing to do with the specific danger to player although obviously more dangerous to some coaches and other staff.

    One slip and you could have 10 cases inside a hub and at very best you have a long delay for competitive reasons or you’re all done, which the PA and NHL cannot afford.

    Let’s talk about that and we can call it the Benning effect. Not Matt. Fort.


    According to a release from U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, 640 new recruits arrived at Fort Benning and were medically screened and tested by medical professionals. At the time, four tested positive. All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.


    After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.

    All 640 recruits — which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment — were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.

    https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions

    To recap. Full 14 day quarantine missed one case. 22% attack rate a week later for cohort of 640. Not an isolated as the same thing happened at another location with a cohort of 500.

    The NHL host city plans will need to test way more than in this case and they’ll need to be wary of even one food service or room service or A/C or anything providing a single foothold. If you look at each series including staff and refs assigned to that series as one cohort each cohort needs to be protected and isolated from each other.

    Was ragging OP last night about Vegas being on the list if SAFETY really is first concern. It’s possible that Vegas can manage all of this, but you’d think the best chance is whoever presents the best plan with best isolation . A lower covid background is going to also be helpful when you realize even hotel staff (and the bus driver Edmonton won’t need) are still potential low frequency vectors. One slip and these guys are in close quarters #BenningEffect

    The likelihood of positive cases in stage 2 is MUCH higher than stage 4.

    In stage 2 – the players are out in regular society as they please, where the virus is clearly still doing its thing.

    In stage 4, the players (and others) will be in a bubble that is to be COVID-free and cut off from general society.

    I’m sure it won’t be as air-tight as in is in theory but cases now is 100% expected.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: When Dr. Fauci said he doesn’t think there will be a NFL season the other day because of a second wave outbreak I figured Gary’s goose was cooked right there.

    I believe his statement was because the NFL is not contemplating a hub-approach – a much different set-up.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

    As per my earlier post, its too early to be determinative on this as so much is in flux including how Jones’ game progresses.

    If Nurse or Klefbom miss substantial time and Jones proves to be a legit 2LD option – him at $850k as oppossed to one of AA or Kassian at over $3M is not that easy of a choice.

    What if Kassian is 3RW for most of the year at $3.2M?

  87. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Hockey Prospect in January didn’t have Seth Jarvis , Tristin Robins, and Ridley Greig ranked in the top 31 . Huge climbers .

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/2020/hockeyprospect.com

    https://hockeyprospect.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

  88. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Rondo:
    Hockey Prospect final rankings

    https://hockeyprospect.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

    Some interesting rankings

    Interesting indeed, thank you for the Link!

    I am having a hard time with their take on Drysdale as the number 3 D.

    Robbins is intriguing, but this is quite a take. I can see him as a late 1st.

    If Holloway is available when the Oil pick, which I doubt, he would be my pick. He will be a helluva player in 2 yrs.

    Also no Askarov in the 1st round is hmmmmm

  89. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I’m no Kevin Woodley but I believe he’s well regarded by close observers.

    I remember him making us look pathetic when we played NYR a year or two ago. And he’s coming from the Allaire Goalie Factory. I think at worst he’s a good replacement for Smith and has time to grow into the starters role or be a quality backup.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    NHL says 11 players have tested positive for COVID during stage 2 out of apx 200 players that have been tested multiple times.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    These positive tests are not unexpected – the players are out and about in general society which will not be the case in Phase 4 (hubs) and likely not the case for phase 3 (training camps):

    https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1274126142119837696/photo/1

  92. jp says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

    Would you consider trading Bear for Georgiev? I’m not at all sure…

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    PGA just announced a positive test from one of it’s players. Did not say if that player was in the Heritage Tourny this week.

    Nick Watney did WD after round 1. could be coincidence. Could be him …

    weird times. We wait

    PGA is more at risk than the NHL will be once they get to stage 3/4.

    PGA is flying all over the country and, I believe, the players can do what they want in society – much different that a quarantined hub cut off from society (once they get there).

  94. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe his statement was because the NFL is not contemplating a hub-approach – a much different set-up.

    Yes the NFL has 3 times as many players any approach ( a huge bubble) before the Vaccine is ready will be difficult for the NFL. With less people in the NHL I believe they are a lot tighter with the union than the NFL. The one thing the NFL has over the NHL is 20 times more clout money talks.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    I am firmly in the 7-3-1 camp if a pre-expansion draft deal can not be worked out. Protect your ten best. We just invested TWO second rounders to finally get Connor some help and you are going to give those up plus the asset acquired? Hell no. Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

    What if Jones is one of the ten best? Then 7-3-1 isn’t protected the best, no?

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: That’s a great idea — if it does not expose a D better than your 5th, 6th and 7th Forwards. Recall teams trying to move that one of 4 good D before the Vegas draft and getting weak offers by predatory GMs and then getting skinned alive making panicky deals with Vegas.Way too early to know what to do, but if its absolutely clear cut at the 8th spot you protect that guy.

    AA can certainly make the case that he needs to be protected.

    What if Jones proves to be a legit every day 2nd pairing d-man and AA rebounds to 25G?

    What a problem to have…..

    Shit, what if Benson proves to be a legit middle six NHL player in his first year in the NHL?

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: If Georgiev can be worked into a deal somehow that would be great.

    I’d be comfortable with him as a 1B with Mikko for the next two years while Rodrigue and Konovalov continue to develop (Skinner and even Wells too I guess – you never know who will “pop” with goalies).

    With that said, I wouldn’t give up too much for him – he seems like a solid 1B or high end back-up but that type of goalie does not generally warrant much on the trade market – of course, very young for a goalie still.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t know if we should go 7-3-1 or 4-4 and I don’t think anyone will until this time next year. But if they do take AA, we are using those two second round picks to keep Jones or whoever else Seattle didn’t take. They are not wasted picks, even if they do take AA.

    Pretty much agree – as per my earlier posts, way too many moving parts over the next year to really put any sort of pin in it – development of guys like Benson and Jones, potential bounce-back of guys like AA, re-signings of Nuge, potential acquisitions to add to protected list, etc.

    As of now, AA is an Oiler. It cost them 2 second round picks but that is now irrelevant going forward.

    If he has a shit year again, he’s exposed notwithstanding the acquisition cost.

    Look forward, not back.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Pretty much agree – as per my earlier posts, way too many moving parts over the next year to really put any sort of pin in it – development of guys like Benson and Jones, potential bounce-back of guys like AA, re-signings of Nuge, potential acquisitions to add to protected list, etc.

    As of now, AA is an Oiler. It cost them 2 second round picks but that is now irrelevant going forward.

    If he has a shit year again, he’s exposed notwithstanding the acquisition cost.

    Look forward, not back.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Austin Matthews tests positive.

    could be bye bye playoffs for the NHL

    Why would that signal “bye bye playoffs”.

    Players testing positive at this stage is fully expected – they are out and about in regular society along with the virus.

    That won’t be the case in phase 4 (and likely not phase 3).

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Either that are there’s going to be one hell of a lot of wavers being signed. Unless of course they deem NHL Hockey players essential workers.

    From accounts, the Return to Play agreement is likely to include an “opt out” clause for players.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Young 4D’s on a dirt low contractsare very valuable If he solidifies himself next year no way they leave him exposed either he’s getting traded, protected or nurse or Kelfbom are gone.

    Yup, if Jones continues to develop and is looking like a legit 2LD after the end of next season, they cannot expose him at $850k.

    We’ll see where we are in a year, however, Jones becoming a legit 2LD, if it happens, would “allow” for a trade of the Klefbom or Nurse.

    No, at this point, I don’t want to trade either and I’m not saying that Jones will be able to fill their shoes – there may be a drop off at 2LD if Jones fills in for one of them but the cap relief will be massive and, of course, the trade will be for value.

    Maybe Jones is the one to be traded at that point, however, at some point, if Jones keeps developing, something will need to give – without even taking in to account Samorukov or Broberg on the horizon and even Lagesson and maybe even Lennstrom – older pros.

  103. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    NHL says 11 players have tested positive for COVID during stage 2 out of apx 200 players that have been tested multiple times.

    That’s 5.5%

    For reference purposes last week Alberta’s voluntary surveillance centres in Edmonton and Calgary had 4 positives from 11,341 tests.

    That’s 0.035%.

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, in practice, it won’t be quite as tight as it should be

    That’s the point. it’s going to be very hard enough to continually weed out the covid that these players bring into stage 3 and stage 4 #benningeffect. Once you make progress you can’t afford ANY introductions from outside even the bus driver. These players are currently in high transmission backgrounds. The sooner they are looked after by staff from low transmission backgrounds the better.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: We all have blind spots with certain players. Kassian, in my opinion has value at what he is payed. He would be a lot more difficult to replace than you might think!

    Yup, Kassian has value on the ice – not sure of value for dollar if he’s bumped down to 3RW – don’t get me wrong, his speed and size with skill at 3RW will (would) be awesome but I’m not sure it will be $3.2M of value – it might be though – can he produce with Soderberg or Staal or Andersson or Marody or Sutter?

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Much of society can proceed with a low level of covid. (i.e. a level where hospital capacity is unstressed). A sports league cannot.Players are not really replaceable.A positive case means you likely lose several players for two weeks to month.

    Sports cannot really proceed unless their bubble has close to no covid.Any more than one case or two for the NHL and NBA in their bubble and they will be screwed.

    Agree but there shouldn’t be cases in the bubble.

    Participants in Phase 2 are not in a bubble – they are in society.

    They may need to make phase 3 bubble-like – player may not be able to go out and about town during training camp.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: TEAM – “I understand you have $35 million dollars in the bank, but we would like you to play, so we can make some money.Please this sign waiver that you won’t sue us if you die.Thank you.”

    PLAYER – “No.”

    Now do, say, Ethan Bear, with his career earnings of $1.2M (pre-escrow, pre-taxes) and who will be signing a contract in the new NHL economic landscape….

  107. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agree but there shouldn’t be cases in the bubble.

    Participants in Phase 2 are not in a bubble – they are in society.

    They may need to make phase 3 bubble-like – player may not be able to go out and about town during training camp.

    *Might* not in phase 3? In US cities and wherever else the players are managing 5.5% positivity?

    As you said no phase is perfect. Ft. Benning had one case transmit past 14 day quarantine and the 650 cohort then suffered a 22% attack rate.

    Once you get the rock rolled to the top of the hill last thing you want is hotel staff or the bus driver dropping a spark. These aren’t BSL3 labs. Background can matter.

    [Little know fact: On his off days Sisyphus empties the ocean one bucket at a time.]

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: A teams 5th D will play way more hockey than a teams 5th forward.

    This was indeed true for the Oilers this year as far as TOI/G (all situations):

    Rusty was 5th at 16:46
    Neal was 5th at 16:18

  109. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, Kassian has value on the ice – not sure of value for dollar if he’s bumped down to 3RW – don’t get me wrong, his speed and size with skill at 3RW will (would) be awesome but I’m not sure it will be $3.2M of value – it might be though – can he produce with Soderberg or Staal or Andersson or Marody or Sutter?

    What happens if Neal or Chase get hurt, bought or traded I believe Kass is next up for parking his ass in front of the net on the number 1 PP. If he’s effective which I believe he would be laugh all you want but he could easily score 23-25 goals next year.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 100%. To say “10 best” vs “8 best” is an oversimplification.

    Barring some sort of stupid deal like what Florida or Minnesota did with Vegas, a team will lose exactly ONE player. It’s not like they will lose #9 AND #10 if they protect 8.

    The question is actually dead simple. Would you rather lose your #4 D or your #5 F? If the former you go 7-3-1, if the latter 4-4-1.

    And as some have pointed out, it’s not just the player, it’s his contract. From a cap perspective, even if the Oilers think Kassian is “better than” Jones, his contract is not.

    I’m still astonished that Jones is at $850K for the next two years.

    Its like he signed that deal and then popped the very next day.

    More popping to come potentially as well.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: made me laugh …

    I had dreamed of a Sunday in August with 6 NHL playoff games, starting at 11 a.m. MST and going through the night ….along with some PGA sprinkled in the afternoon …

    still hoping ….

    Hockey may be more likely that golf – bubble/quarantine/hub vs. not.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: In Alberta you have the right to refuse any job you deem unsafe under the labour laws. Big can of worms if this happens.

    The Return to Play Agreement is likely to contain an player opt out option.

  113. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    I’m no Kevin Woodley but I believe he’s well regarded by close observers.

    I remember him making us look pathetic when we played NYR a year or two ago. And he’s coming from the Allaire Goalie Factory. I think at worst he’s a good replacement for Smith and has time to grow into the starters role or be a quality backup.

    There’s no question he’s a good replacement for Smith and has room for growth. He’s 24 though and his numbers are solid but I don’t see any of them popping off the page. Of course I’m no Kevin Woodley either…

    I don’t recall exactly what the Rangers ask for him was. But you kinda suggested he might be equivalent/preferable to Andersson and a 1st (maybe that wasn’t entirely intentional). And another poster mentioned Jones or Bear for Georgiev…

    I don’t know. Definitely would be nice to have him as 1B (with a chance to be more) but I’d want more for Bear or for the 2017 #7 and a first this year.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Many thought Yamamoto wasn’t fast enough either.

    Something about his lack of “pull away speed”…..

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: That’s odd.

    It was announced this morning.

    That’s odd given the link posted was to an article from yesterday….. which we talked about.

  116. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s odd given the link posted was to an article from yesterday….. which we talked about.

    ~ Ah but HH was waiting for Speeds to confirm ~

  117. jp says:

    pts2pndr: We all have blind spots with certain players. Kassian, in my opinion has value at what he is payed. He would be a lot more difficult to replace than you might think!🙂

    With respect, you’ve been consistently one of the most negative posters regarding Jones’ potential and what he’s actually shown at the NHL level. It’s possible the blind spot is somewhere other than you think it is.

    I say this while also agreeing that with the information we have today 7-3 is the best course forward for the Oilers (that is, AA over Jones, based on what we know today). Of course a lot can change in a year.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: What happens if Neal or Chase get hurt, bought or traded I believe Kass is next up for parking his ass in front of the net on the number 1 PP.If he’s effectivewhich I believe he would be laugh all you want buthe could easily score 23-25 goals next year.

    If Neal or Chiasson get hurt or bought out, well, then the other one gets all the PP1 reps.

    Yamamoto would get PP1 time before Zack, I would think as well (as he did this year).

    He’s had a few years with over 2 min/game on the PK – earlier in his career – he did not produce well.

    Zack had a great year but he’s never scored more than 15 goals – I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to be a 23-25 goal scorer in his 30s.

    I’m not bashing Kass – great team guy and I want him on the team – I just thing the above is a bit aggresive.

  119. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d be comfortable with him as a 1B with Mikko for the next two years while Rodrigue and Konovalov continue to develop (Skinner and even Wells too I guess – you never know who will “pop” with goalies).

    With that said, I wouldn’t give up too much for him – he seems like a solid 1B or high end back-up but that type of goalie does not generally warrant much on the trade market – of course, very young for a goalie still.

    That’s pretty much how I feel (though it’s a super long shot that Rodrigue or Konovalov will be as good as Georgiev is today…).

    I’d love to have Georgiev to pair with Koskinen. It would be great. And maybe he does turn out to be above average starter quality. But I wouldn’t pay too too much for him. I don’t see him being a better bet than Scrivens or Talbot were when they were acquired and the price tags were far less than Georgiev’s apparently..

  120. defmn says:

    jp: There’s no question he’s a good replacement for Smith and has room for growth. He’s 24 though and his numbers are solid but I don’t see any of them popping off the page. Of course I’m no Kevin Woodley either…

    I don’t recall exactly what the Rangers as for him was. But you kinda suggested he might be equivalent/preferable to Andersson and a 1st (maybe that wasn’t entirely intentional). And another poster mentioned Jones or Bear for Georgiev…

    I don’t know. Definitely would be nice to have him as 1B (with a chance to be more) but I’d want more for Bear or for the 2017 #7 and a first this year.

    Not sure how many better goalies will be available to Seattle but teams can only protect one and in NYR I believe that will be Shesterkin. Not sure what that says about the value of Georgiev to them but with Lundqvist under contract for one more year and him publicly saying he wants to play there Gorton has a decision to make.

    77 games in he has posted .918, .914, and .910.

    I have no idea what those numbers mean in terms of projection going forward.

  121. Reja says:

    jp: That’s pretty much how I feel (though it’s a super long shot that Rodrigue or Konovalov will be as good as Georgiev is today…).

    I’d love to have Georgiev to pair with Koskinen. It would be great. And maybe he does turn out to be above average starter quality. But I wouldn’t pay too too much for him. I don’t see him being a better bet than Scrivens or Talbot were when they were acquired and the price tags were far less than Georgiev’s apparently..

    How many goaltenders is Francis allowed to pick? If I’m Holland I target the goalie and do some horse trading with Francis. I was thumbs up with the Smith signing last year I knew he would calm the D and the team down in the rough patches starting with the Buffalo game and the make hay road trip after Christmas I believe. I also knew he would be a good mentor for Kosh but the best before date is coming due quickly. I’m still starting him in the first game against the Hawks and taking it from a there, of course all bets are off if he goes on a major heater and gets us to the final against Tampa.

  122. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I’d have a hard time sending away Bear for him as well.

    But I’d want more from JP than LA and a late first (especially if there’s a significant+ coming from us), so looking at their roster he’s most appealing and likely available if they don’t buy out King Henrik.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: That’s pretty much how I feel (though it’s a super long shot that Rodrigue or Konovalov will be as good as Georgiev is today…).

    I’d love to have Georgiev to pair with Koskinen. It would be great. And maybe he does turn out to be above average starter quality. But I wouldn’t pay too too much for him. I don’t see him being a better bet than Scrivens or Talbot were when they were acquired and the price tags were far less than Georgiev’s apparently..

    Sure, Konovalov may never reach Georgiev’s current level, but, of course, he very well may or may even surpass. Their numbers in their age 20 seasons were very similar, Konovalov in the KHL and Georgiev in Liiga – I don’t know how to reconcile between the two leagues though.

  124. jp says:

    defmn: Not sure how many better goalies will be available to Seattle but teams can only protect one and in NYR I believe that will be Shesterkin. Not sure what that says about the value of Georgiev to them but with Lundqvist under contract for one more year and him publicly saying he wants to play there Gorton has a decision to make.

    77 games in he has posted .918, .914, and .910.

    I have no idea what those numbers mean in terms of projection going forward.

    Well it’s no shame being rated behind Shestyorkov. His numbers do consistently pop off the page. You scan his history and a large majority of entries have something above .930 attached.

    Groton does need to make a difficult decision between between Lundqvist and Georgiev though. Reja mentions the expansion draft. Even if Groton chooses Georgiev there’s a decent chance he’s plucked. There should be some motivation to move him…

    What Georgiev’s number mean… I’ve already said I don’t really know either. There’s no .930 seasons on his resume though. His NHL numbers are absolutely fine. His AHL numbers are considerably worse (.909 and .883). His 2 recent NHL seasons where he actually played saw him 20th of 48 and 25th of 45 goalies in SV% (30+ games). I dunno..

  125. jp says:

    Reja: How many goaltenders is Francis allowed to pick? If I’m Holland I target the goalie and do some horse trading with Francis. I was thumbs up with the Smith signing last year I knew he would calm the D and the team down in the rough patches starting with the Buffalo game and the make hay road trip after Christmas I believe. I also knew he would be a good mentor for Kosh but the best before dateis coming due quickly. I’m still starting him inthe first game against the Hawks and taking it from a there, of course all bets are off ifhe goes on a major heater and gets us to the final against Tampa.

    Expansion draft wise, Koskinen has modified NTC (provides a 15-team list). Does he need to be protected in the Seattle draft? I guess that would make it difficult to trade for an heir of any note….

  126. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    I’d have a hard time sending away Bear for him as well.

    But I’d want more from JP than LA and a late first (especially if there’s a significant+ coming from us), so looking at their roster he’s most appealing and likely available if they don’t buy out King Henrik.

    I wouldn’t trade Bear for Georgiev in a million years.

    For Puljujarvi. I like him but I think Andersson AND a first is a great return. I’d add to Puljujarvi in that deal too but the plus matters obviously (Puljujarvi + Lagesson would be two thumbs up IMO, for instance).

    The valuation on Georgiev (by the Rangers also) just seems out of whack to me relative to his historical performance…

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Expansion draft wise, Koskinen has modified NTC (provides a 15-team list). Does he need to be protected in the Seattle draft? I guess that would make it difficult to trade for an heir of any note….

    No he does not need to be protected. A NTC restricts trades. A NMC restricts movement including AHL assignments, exposure in expansion draft, etc.

  128. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, Konovalov may never reach Georgiev’s current level, but, of course, he very well may or may even surpass.Their numbers in their age 20 seasons were very similar, Konovalov in the KHL and Georgiev in Liiga – I don’t know how to reconcile between the two leagues though.

    Yes, there’s virtually nothing we can rule out from being a possibility.

    And yes, they both had strong 20-year old seasons. Georgiev has gone on to establish himself as a decent NHL goalie. Konovalov followed it up by regressing badly.

    Reconciling the KHL/Liiga doesn’t really matter. You’ve got a guy who’s established himself as an NHL goalie and a guy who was an overage 3rd round draft pick who regressed post-draft.

    Konovalov really isn’t relevant to any discussions of the Oilers obtaining an NHL goalie, IMO.

  129. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: No he does not need to be protected.A NTC restricts trades.A NMC restricts movement including AHL assignments, exposure in expansion draft, etc.

    Thank you.

  130. Reja says:

    jp: Yes, there’s virtually nothing we can rule out from being a possibility.

    And yes, they both had strong 20-year old seasons. Georgiev has gone on to establish himself as a decent NHL goalie. Konovalov followed it up by regressing badly.

    Reconciling the KHL/Liiga doesn’t really matter. You’ve got a guy who’s established himself as an NHL goalie and a guy who was an overage 3rd round draft pick who regressed post-draft.

    Konovalov really isn’t relevant to any discussions of the Oilers obtaining an NHL goalie, IMO.

    If Linus Allmark is on the block I wonder what it would take with a fragile team like Buffalo. On the day the league was suspended Buffalo was scheduled to play the Habs If they would have won they were in and nobody would have been fired.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yes, there’s virtually nothing we can rule out from being a possibility.

    And yes, they both had strong 20-year old seasons. Georgiev has gone on to establish himself as a decent NHL goalie. Konovalov followed it up by regressing badly.

    Reconciling the KHL/Liiga doesn’t really matter. You’ve got a guy who’s established himself as an NHL goalie and a guy who was an overage 3rd round draft pick who regressed post-draft.

    Konovalov really isn’t relevant to any discussions of the Oilers obtaining an NHL goalie, IMO.

    Comparing their 20 year old seasons is relevant to the point that Konovlov will never be as good as G is today. He was arguably better at 20 and drafted. G was in drafted I believe. He regressed badly early under MacT and a struggling team and recovered through the year.

    He’s an early 20s goalie with a reasonably projection to become an NHL 1B as G is now.

    No, he’s not relevant to obtaining a current NHL goalie but that isn’t the point I was responding to.

  132. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s an early 20s goalie with a reasonably projection to become an NHL 1B as G is now.

    I don’t agree with that. It’s possible Konovalov becomes an NHL goalie but it’s not at all reasonable to expect IMO.

    He was worse under MacT for sure but even if he’d recovered to .925 that would have been average among 38 KHL goalies to play 20+ games. The full season reality was he finished 31st of those 38 goalies in SV%. Expectations should not be high.

  133. jp says:

    Reja: If Linus Allmark is on the block I wonder what it would take with a fragile team like Buffalo. On the day the league was suspended Buffalo was scheduled to play the Habs If they would have won they were in and nobody would have been fired.

    Hopefully Holland is calling. Ullmark looks to be to be a little bit better bet than Georgiev, and likely the price tag is lower than what the Rangers seem to be asking.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    When someone asked the other day who the Oilers should try and purge off of Buffalo, Ullmark was my answer. Solid bet if cheap.

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