Pipeline Progress

by Lowetide

I love getting new math on prospects, especially far away players who we can’t see much. Around April-May of each year, some math genius drops the numbers and projections for various leagues. This year, it’s Pick224 math. The information isn’t perfect, and doesn’t resemble previous years, but it gives another angle all the same.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

PICK 224 AHL (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)

This is estimated points-per-60 in all game states, so that’s Bouchard, Benson, Currie, Yamamoto above, their power-play numbers are included here. It is primary points, so first assists and goals, and expressed in estimated 60-minutes format. The takeaway for me? Marody and McLeod. It’s go time for those two centers.

PICK 224 DISTANT LANDS (PRIMARY POINTS-60 ESTIMATE ALL GAME STATES)

I’m fascinated by the Russian, have to say. He’s an undersized skill center and he isn’t playing in the KHL, but that’s a fine number the young man posted. He’s a player to follow. Lavoie’s number is impressive in the QMJHL, Puljujarvi’s in the Liiga. Broberg has a pulse.

I’ve always felt the trade made sense, still do. Jesse Puljujarvi in Manhattan, where he could spend his early 20’s grinding his talents into a useful pain in the ass winger who scores 15-20 goals. I know a little about Rangers history and if I could give JP a gallon of Billy Fairbairn’s style he would flourish for 15 years. Fairbairn could score goals but was a fine checker and he could hit people without taking penalties. Genuine pain, effective player, Puljujarv has about half a foot in height and maybe 50 pounds on him. JP has all the tools to be a monster in Manhattan in a two-way role.

Lias Andersson had a good run in the SHL (12 points in 15 games) and he’s a center. Speed has been the issue, so there’s some Anton Lander in him, I think the Oilers would need to get a pick to make the deal close to even and I wouldn’t make it. That and a toonie gets you a coffee in Alberta today. Rangers have two first-round picks and a pair of third rounders, I’d keep Puljujarvi.

If the Rangers offered Andersson and a late first, would Holland pull the trigger?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun but difficult morning begins at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will join us to talk about Father’s Day, his podcast this week and a ghastly story involving all manner of abuse in the CHL. Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic has written a massive item on NHL free agency and Matt Iwanyk will tackle MLB’s latest. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Todd Macallan

Not a fan of Andersson by any stretch, but the addition of a 1st in a draft this deep would make me strongly consider that deal. That first could end up being a Jacob Perreault or JJ Peterka, among many other strong choices.

Elgin R

Lias Anderson – doesn’t score (9 pts in 66 games), takes penalties (33 pims in 66 games) and is not considered a great skater. Hard pass on this guy as he will probably not play in the NHL again. So, the deal would basically be JP for a late first. No, no, no!

Maybe JP comes back and plays for the Oilers next year (which would be great) or you keep him for use as a sweetener for the Seattle (Krakken?) expansion draft. The Krakken select James Neal and the Oilers throw in JP. Would that be enough?

Cooper ‘the song smith’ Marody is by his own account finally over his injury issues and is ready to play. He is most probably a tweener, but what he accomplished in 2018 / 2019 with the Condors makes you wonder if he could be a decent RC 3C. Internally the job opportunity is between him and Mcleod so one of them needs to step up.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Despite my initial warming to LA after watching highlights — his foot speed deficit is over rated — we should aim higher than him and a 1st round pick.

Why not Georgiev, straight across?

Harpers Hair

The Canadian government has issued an executive order allowing the NHL to bypass the 14 day quarantine paving the way for a Canadian hub city.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5618558?__twitter_impression=true

JimmyV1965

I would be thrilled if the Oil could get a late first rounder for JP. I really doubt the Rangers are giving up Andersson and a first round pick. The Rangers second pick in the first round is 23 OV. There will be a very good prospect available then.

Holland needs to have a quiet heart to heart with JP. If he’s willing to return to the team, that’s the best outcome for the team. If not, take the best deal you can get because the offers will almost certainly get worse next year.

I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either. Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

Eh Team

JimmyV1965: I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either. Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

Pretty sure Jones would be protected as Oilers will go 4 forwards and 4 d’men.

As for a previous comment, why would Seattle take Neal to get JP when they could just select JP in the draft? Neal is just getting bought out this off season.

godot10

JimmyV1965:
I would be thrilled if the Oil could get a late first rounder for JP.I really doubt the Rangers are giving up Andersson and a first round pick.The Rangers second pick in the first round is 23 OV.There will be a very good prospect available then.

Holland needs to have a quiet heart to heart with JP. If he’s willing to return to the team, that’s the best outcome for the team. If not, take the best deal you can get because the offers will almost certainly get worse next year.

I would be stunned if Seattle would have any interest in him either.Right now, it’s looking like the Oil will have to expose Caleb Jones. I would think he would be the much more attractive option.

Larsson’s contract expires. The Oilers protect 4-4-1. Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones Re-sign Larsson as a UFA.

The OIlers might be able trade for a goaltender to protect, and expose Koskinen.

Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto. I assume the Oilers will sign Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.

JimmyV1965

godot10: Larsson’s contract expires.The Oilers protect 4-4-1.Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones Re-sign Larsson as a UFA.

The OIlers might be abletrade for a goaltender to protect, and expose Koskinen.

Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto.I assume the Oilers will sign Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.

Sure. Maybe they go 4-4-1. But if I’m Seattle, I would rather select AA than JP. The point I’m making is that it’s unlikely Seattle selects JP in the expansion draft. Hell, at this point Seattle would likely take Kassisn over JP.

N64

godot10: The Oilers protect 4-4-1

Concur. The extra 2 skaters with 7-3-1 is not a big deal. In all cases you only lose 1 players and should protect your best 8 skaters. If AA (or JP in Oilers jersey) makes a better case than Jones next year then you get 2 extra forwards, but that should be the afterthought not the driver.

Todd Macallan

Harpers Hair:
The Canadian government has issued an executive order allowing the NHL to bypass the 14 day quarantine paving the way for a Canadian hub city.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5618558?__twitter_impression=true

Interesting if not unexpected. Now we get to see where the NHLs priorities lie, either with player safety (Edm or Van) or media market (Tor).

leadfarmer

Not a fan of Anderson
If that’s all we can get for JP just use him as Seattle bait

OriginalPouzar

Here is hoping that Maxim Denezhkin can work his way up from the MHL/VHL to the KHL for Yaroslav this coming year. He did get in to one KHL game last year.

A distant bell for sure but you never know how he develops as he matured in to an adult.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, I posted about Lias Andersson yesterday and his decision not to come back to join the Rangers for their “playoff run” even though he’s been asked.

I did find it interesting that the organization asked him to come given he’s been suspended for refusing to report to the AHL and has been playing in Sweden.

He did do well this past year in the SHL and I am intrigued about acquiring him (would need a big plus in a Jesse swap though) but am concerned that he would also refuse an AHL assignment in the Oilers organization.

OriginalPouzar

Andersson and a late first for Jesse? Pull the trigger. I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

I’m not sure we need to be concerned with Andersson’s speed as a potential 3C – I mean look at Ryan Stome’s skating and his recent success as an NHL center.

so polar

OriginalPouzar:
Andersson and a late first for Jesse?Pull the trigger.I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

In addition to their own pick, NYR is receiving the later of Toronto/Carolina’s firsts as payment for Skjei. They’ll have one pick that makes it out of the play in round, you’d think. Although that’s by no means late – CF has them at 20&21 (Edm at 23) right now.
I’d be overjoyed to get 20th overall for Jesse.

Harpers Hair

Jim Matheson (@NHLbyMatty) Tweeted:
Heard from a very reliable source that #Edmonton has been chosen as an @NHL playoffs hub city. Official announcement coming soon.

OriginalPouzar

so polar: In addition to their own pick, NYR is receiving the later of Toronto/Carolina’s firsts as payment for Skjei. They’ll have one pick that makes it out of the play in round, you’d think. Although that’s by no means late – CF has them at 20&21 (Edm at 23) right now.
I’d be overjoyed to get 20th overall for Jesse.

Good point – I forgot about their multiple picks.

With that said, I think Jesse for a 1st is a long-shot let alone adding an intriguing prospect.

I think the trade proposed by Kurt Leavins a while ago (what he “was hearing”) was indeed Andersson and first but for Jesse plus a prospect – we don’t know what level of prospect though.

jtblack

OriginalPouzar:
Andersson and a late first for Jesse?Pull the trigger.I don’t think the Oilers could get a late first for Jesse alone let alone an intriguing prospect.

The Rangers 1st rounder might not be that late either…..

I’m not sure we need to be concerned with Andersson’s speed as a potential 3C – I mean look at Ryan Stome’s skating and his recent success as an NHL center.

I would be over the moon for LA and a 1st round pick ….

I have never been in the “get the band back together” group. Don’t want Hall back. Didn’t want Yak back. Don’t want JP back.

To me the JP situation is like dating the ex girlfriend again …. you start dating again and quickly realize why it didn’t work the first time ..

We all blame the GM and coach for JP’s first “failed” foray into the NHL. But I believe there was some smoke around the fact the McDavid and Leon were not the biggest JP fans (playing style and personality) ….

So I would suggest “SAIL ON JP” ….. let’s get a new prospect / picks and move forward ….

OriginalPouzar

Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

Per McKenzie

jtblack

OriginalPouzar:
Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

Per McKenzie

this is sort of expected, but at the same time, a large outbreak this quickly could jeopardize everything .. 🙁

PennersPancakes

Harpers Hair: Jim Matheson (@NHLbyMatty)

Fake account with 61 followers. His handle is @nhl_by_matty with the 38 thousand followers.

Scungilli Slushy

No more slow boats for me. I like fast hockey. I think it leads to a better likelihood of sustaining contention as well. Connor needs a fast team.

N64

OriginalPouzar:
Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

Per McKenzie

And that’s just phase 2 with only a few players back.

What I’ll say next has nothing to do with the specific danger to player although obviously more dangerous to some coaches and other staff.

One slip and you could have 10 cases inside a hub and at very best you have a long delay for competitive reasons or you’re all done, which the PA and NHL cannot afford.

Let’s talk about that and we can call it the Benning effect. Not Matt. Fort.


According to a release from U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, 640 new recruits arrived at Fort Benning and were medically screened and tested by medical professionals. At the time, four tested positive. All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.

After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.

All 640 recruits — which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment — were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.

https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions

To recap. Full 14 day quarantine missed one case. 22% attack rate a week later for cohort of 640. Not an isolated as the same thing happened at another location with a cohort of 500.

The NHL host city plans will need to test way more than in this case and they’ll need to be wary of even one food service or room service or A/C or anything providing a single foothold. If you look at each series including staff and refs assigned to that series as one cohort each cohort needs to be protected and isolated from each other.

Was ragging OP last night about Vegas being on the list if SAFETY really is first concern. It’s possible that Vegas can manage all of this, but you’d think the best chance is whoever presents the best plan with best isolation . A lower covid background is going to also be helpful when you realize even hotel staff (and the bus driver Edmonton won’t need) are still potential low frequency vectors. One slip and these guys are in close quarters #BenningEffect

jtblack

Scungilli Slushy:
No more slow boats for me. I like fast hockey. I think it leads to a better likelihood of sustaining contention as well. Connor needs a fast team.

so get rid of Benson?

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
Ugh oh – Tampa Bay has shut down their facility as 3 players and 2 staff have tested positive for COVID.

Per McKenzie

I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

N64

Reja: I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

~ You can never thank any City of Florida enough ~ #greatgmmoments

Reja

N64: ~ You can never thank any City of Florida enough ~ #greatgmmoments

When Dr. Fauci said he doesn’t think there will be a NFL season the other day because of a second wave outbreak I figured Gary’s goose was cooked right there.

leadfarmer

Reja: I can see Gary Bettman one eye just twitching up a storm right about now.

Florida is going full Floridaman on the world. This is going to get ugly.
But if they are thinking hockey they need to get every player and coach out of Florida Carolinas, Arizona and pretty much every southern state

pts2pndr

N64: Concur. The extra 2 skaters with 7-3-1 is not a big deal. In all cases you only lose 1 players and should protect your best 8 skaters. If AA (or JP in Oilers jersey) makes a better case than Jones next year then you get 2 extra forwards, but that should be the afterthought not the driver.

So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

N64

Reja: When Dr. Fauci said he doesn’t think there will be a NFL season the other day because of a second wave outbreak I figured Gary’s goose was cooked right there.

The whole bubble thing gives them an excellent chance to complete the playoffs. But they absolutely need the best 2 plans they receive and then they need to improve them every day for maximum chances.

Update: Right now US South is still working on the first wave peak. MLB can likely avoid 2nd wave if they finish before flu season provides cover for covid spread.

N64

leadfarmer: Florida is going full Floridaman on the world.This is going to get ugly.
But if they are thinking hockey they need to get every player and coach out of Florida Carolinas, Arizona and pretty much every southern state

Good luck with that state sandwiched between Arizona and California.

N64

pts2pndr: So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

Nope. I’m saying you take your 8 best and Jones can prove he’s that next year. So can AA or Kass or JP or WL. (Age and cap factor in where it’s close, but potential is not enough)

leadfarmer

N64: Good luck with that state sandwiched between Arizona and California.

It’s very obvious that Vegas will be a hotspot since they opened up their casinos.
If they choose Vegas as a host city I don’t see the season completing.
Pick unsexy cities with populations less than a million

pts2pndr

N64: Nope. I’m saying you take your 8 best and Jones can prove he’s that next year. So can AA or Kass or JP or WL. (Age and cap factor in where it’s close, but potential is not enough)

That logic is why I say they go 7-3-1. Why not protect your best 10. I think our overall thought process is the same but my question is assuming Jones does progress as many think why would you not move a D for a position of need?

N64

pts2pndr: That logic is why I say they go 7-3-1. Why not protect your best 10. I think our overall thought process is the same but my question is assuming Jones does progress as many think why would you not move a D for a position of need?

Look at trading a D on its own merits. If you’d do it without the draft then of course you can execute that before the draft. One caution is that price for D might go down close to the draft.

But the basic approach is still protect your best 8. At protection time it’s all about the 8th guy protected. If he’s a D then 9 & 10 are exposed. If he’s a F you get to protect 2 more forwards below 8. Main think is not to overthink this.

jp

Andersson and a 1st for Puljujarvi? Yes please.

godot10

pts2pndr: So what you are saying is that Jones who is not in our top four D and with the team having backfill at third pairing Left D this is the prudent move even if you lose a Kassian or AA. Losing Jones while leaving the balance of the roster intact seems like a much wiser move. I do not see any way that the Oilers do this. They will go 7-3-1 as even if they lose Jones the impact on the overall team would not be that great.

One prays they take Kassian and the three years left on that contract, which is a over a million too much and two years too long for a 3rd line winger in his thirties.

It is far easier to replace Kassian than it is to replace Jones.

godot10

Adam Silver is taking the NBA into the heart of the Covid beast in Orlando as a courtesy to one of his biggest sponsors/broadcasters in Disney.

#IamgoingtoCovidWorld

N64

godot10:
Adam Silver is taking the NBA into the heart of the Covid beast in Orlando as a courtesy to one of his biggest sponsors/broadcasters in Disney.

#IamgoingtoCovidWorld

NHL PA could still steer the convo away from Vegas, but I’d keep my on the NBA stars and see if they really sign off on that Disney cruise.

jp

Maxim Denezhkin 2.61.

That’s a really impressive number indeed. I guess he’s getting only primary points? And not many goals are happening with him on the ice…

I’m trying to figure it since he was only 4th on his team in scoring and pts/game. 52-19-25-44. He was +28 but the team seems to have been a powerhouse, he was only tied for 6th on his team (If he were suppressing GA he’d have a lower ETOI, but also a exceptional goal differential).

Anyway, definitely an encouraging sign for a long long shot (drafted with pick 193).

maudite

JP or 2 x 2nd rounders lost in expansion (AA).

options past that are Kass or JJ maybe?

No doubt in my mind klef/nurse/bear/jones protected has more value in longer run than risking exposure of any of them to seatlle over forwards available. Decision on what 2 of those one LD might be best longer term isn’t a decision I’d let anyone else remove. Way more value in dealing quality D than any winger that remains available IMO.

Coming out with
Nurse – Bear
Klef – Bouchard
Jones – green/benning (pick your player 2 x under 2 M ish type level)

Lag

Is solid primary depth level.

Figure it out from there as prospects push or cap concerns present themselves…seems obvious to me.

jp

Elgin R: Lias Anderson – doesn’t score (9 pts in 66 games), takes penalties (33 pims in 66 games) and is not considered a great skater. Hard pass on this guy as he will probably not play in the NHL again. So, the deal would basically be JP for a late first. No, no, no!

Fun fact:

Lias Andersson 5on5 P/60 – 0.77
Jesse Puljujarvi 5on5 P/60 – 1.14
Puljujarvi without McDavid P/60 – 0.84

These are the career numbers for each player. All done in the 3 years after they were drafted (Andersson being picked the year after Puljujarvi).

Most common 5on5 linemates for Andersson: Strome (129 minutes), Vesey, Lemieux, Fast, Nieves, Buchnevich, Chytil, Namestnikov (55 min). That’s everyone over 50 minutes (Andersson has played 624 minutes career). (only 7 minutes with Panarin if anyone’s wondering)
Puljujarvi: Lucic (670), McDavid, Nuge, Strome, Khaira, Draisaitl, Caggiula, Maroon (154). That’s everyone over 100 minutes (Puljujarvi has played 1627 minutes total).

I think Puljujarvi is the better player but I’m not certain the gap is a big as many want to believe. I don’t really know of course. But I found the above interesting.

leadfarmer

jp:
Andersson and a 1st for Puljujarvi? Yes please.

Add Georgiev too while they’re at it
Koskinen and Georgiev would be a solid tandem

jtblack

PGA just announced a positive test from one of it’s players. Did not say if that player was in the Heritage Tourny this week.

Nick Watney did WD after round 1. could be coincidence. Could be him …

weird times. We wait

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Andersson and 23OV for JP? Rangers would have to be desperate to make that trade. Even if you eventually flush Andersson, getting a late first for Jesse is a steal.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

I am firmly in the 7-3-1 camp if a pre-expansion draft deal can not be worked out. Protect your ten best. We just invested TWO second rounders to finally get Connor some help and you are going to give those up plus the asset acquired? Hell no. Trade Jones or Bear for Georgiev while you are on the phone with the NYR and go 7-3-1.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Three in a row … I am coming for you OP.

N64

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Protect your ten best.

That’s a great idea — if it does not expose a D better than your 5th, 6th and 7th Forwards. Recall teams trying to move that one of 4 good D before the Vegas draft and getting weak offers by predatory GMs and then getting skinned alive making panicky deals with Vegas. Way too early to know what to do, but if its absolutely clear cut at the 8th spot you protect that guy.

AA can certainly make the case that he needs to be protected.

jp

leadfarmer: Add Georgiev too while they’re at it
Koskinen and Georgiev would be a solid tandem

If Georgiev can be worked into a deal somehow that would be great.