Bakersfield Condors 2020-21

The role of a farm team is to produce NHL players for the parent team. That’s a simple statement and it’s universally understood. Until the first puck drops. Then the prospect goalie needs to be replaced and the kid blue is blind and that scorer your brought in from St. Walburg in the junior league never saw a hockey stick in his life I swear to God!

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

THE 2020-21 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

There is one substantial NHL draft pick and plenty of potential, but this will be a year of pushing for the playoffs instead of trying to win the Calder Cup. Good things coming. Consider this an educated guess, AHL contracts where noted.

1 G Stuart Skinner. He delivered some strong outings in Bakersfield in his first full AHL season, including a truly impressive November. He isn’t certain to be the starter but will get a chance to audition.

2 G Dylan Wells. He is two seasons into a pro career that looks like it’s peaking at this level. He has played 19 AHL games, only seven this year when the club badly needed solutions. That’s a tell.

3 G Olivier Rodrigue. I’m serious when saying Rodrigue could win the starter’s job in Bakersfield. He ended his QMJHL career with a .918 save percentage (Skinner was .905 his final junior season, Wells .896) and there’s every chance he shows he can stop more pucks than the competition in California.

4 RD Evan Bouchard. A fine puck-moving defenseman whose coverage and urgency improved during his rookie pro season in Bakersfield. He won’t be in California long, if at all, in 2020-21, but every day he’s a Condor Bouchard will be the team’s best player.

5 LD William Lagesson. I don’t think he clears waivers but if he does Lagesson should be a big piece of the Bakersfield defense. He is a shutdown type but can move the puck and posts crooked numbers at this level. I think he has an NHL future.

6 LD Theodor Lennstrom. Always difficult to project hands across the water (water), but Lennstrom is a bona fide SHL veteran so should be able to slide easily into the top-four on the Condors back line. Great speed, great passer, likely to get playing time in all disciplines.

7 RD Logan Day. He’s an impressive player at this level with the puck on his stick, Day’s skills are less effective on a team with Bouchard playing the power-play minutes. His defending isn’t getting better (25-41 even strength goal differential) so he’s going to need a strong defender alongside. RFA this summer.

8. LD Markus Niemelainen. Big defender with good mobility and a shutdown style, my guess is he patrols on the third pairing for his first AHL season.

9. RD Yanni Kaldis. AHL contract. Four years at Cornell for a solid two-way defenseman should have prepared him well for the AHL. He was captain of the team and his NHLE is 19.0 and I would bet on him having some success with the Condors.

10. RD Janis Jaks. AHL contract. Righty puck moving defenseman, he was in the Washington Capitals development camp in the summer of 2019. He has skill and he is righthanded.

11 RC Cooper Marody. His offense year over year was cut in half due to injuries. If healthy, Marody is an impact player at the AHL level. Should Marody recover, he may land in the NHL during the season.

12 LC Ryan McLeod. He’s a rising prospect in the system, that speed could be useful in the NHL starting now. His even strength goal differential (27-27) was strong on a team underwater. His even strength points (5-14-19 in 56 games) is about level with Filip Chlapik, who was 57, 8-12-20 as an AHL rookie age 20 in 2016-17. This young man is a legit prospect.

13 LC Brad Malone. AHL contract. The NHL portion of his career over, Malone no doubt received a handsome contract to play exclusively in the AHL. Center is a tough spot to play and the Oilers need to develop wingers about four at a time next season. He’ll be as valuable in Bakersfield as he was a year ago.

14 LC Luke Esposito. AHL contract, plays a utility role on the team. He doesn’t have enough offense in his game to play with skill, so if you see him playing center or wing with prospects of promise, someone is injured or in the pressbox.

15 LC Devin Brosseau. AHL contract. He’s 24 and just out of college, has plenty of skill (NHLE 23.8) and he’s 6.01, 203. You never know with college kids entering pro hockey, he has some things a coach will find valuable. Could see more playing time than I believe.

16 RC Liam Folkes. AHL contract. Similar bio to Brosseau, he’s 24 and from Penn State with an NHLE of 20.3. Skilled and looked for an opportunity.

17 LW Tyler Benson. Entering the 2020-21 season, he is likely to be either in Edmonton or on the top skill line in Bakersfield. When I begin my reasonable expectations ciphering, Benson will probably see half of his time in Edmonton next year.

18 LW Joe Gambardella. He is a solid two-way player in the AHL, and may be in line for a recall (although Benson now blocks his path). I like his forechecking utility.

19 LW Ryan Kuffner. He’s RFA and did not score as hoped as a rookie pro, but he filled the net in college and Ken Holland gave him a bonus-laden contract with the DRW. One of the more anticipated seasons from an AHL acquisition in recent memory.

20 LW Jakob Stukel. AHL contract, he has experience in the league (three goals in 15 games) and enough skill to be considered for regular work. He’s 23, younger than most of the college men who he’ll compete with for time.

21 LW James Hamblin. AHL contract. This is an interesting player. Hamblin was on the radar of this blog back in 2017 (Wolfpack wrote an excellent scouting report) and now he’s gone pro with an AHL deal. In four WHL seasons he scored 113 goals. Watch for this player.

22 LW Blake Christensen. AHL contract. He’s 24, just out of college and has played in every tier 2 league in Christendom. He didn’t get much ice time in the USHL, plenty in the USHL and had a nice run at AIC (American International College).

23 RW Kirill Maksimov. I’m not certain who to list here, so will go with the fellow who has played in the league for a year. He’s a good prospect, he might be able to make the grade in more than one way, but he has to score some.

24 RW Raphael Lavoie. He scored 38 goals on 310 shots in just 55 games during his final QMJHL season. Oilers badly need to have him fly past the other wingers on the team as a scorer. I think he will.

25 LW Ostap Safin. I like the fact they left him in the ECHL to play a lot, but it’ll be time to push into a regular job with the Condors in 2020-21. We should remember he was ranked No. 51 by Bob McKenzie in 2017. There’s talent here.

26 RW Cam Hebig. He’s RFA and unlikely to return but I’ll list him because Hebig began his AHL career by scoring nine goals in his first 15 games.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260 beginning at 10. Maybe something breaks on the NHL front, Edmonton looks more promising as a hub city each passing hour. How do we feel about that? Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will talk Blue Jays and baseball at 10:20, Ryan Rishaug from TSN gives the latest NHL and Oilers news, Michael Hurley from WBZ Boston to chat New England Patriots, Cam Newton and another fine. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

125 Responses to "Bakersfield Condors 2020-21"

  1. Brantford Boy says:

    I wonder which of these ‘legit prospects’ will actually play an extensive role in the NHL… some may have to reinvent there game to play on a checking line as the offense won’t translate in the big league (Khaira). We badly need another Captain Grinder on this team (3C)… which will more than likely come via trade. Are there any present Condors (not necessarily a centre) that can fill that role moving forward?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    First and foremost, here is hoping there is an AHL season.

    I know they are “planning” to start in October but the league has also stated they cannot play without some semblance of fans in the stands.

    I don’t think the AHL starts until the NHL starts in December/January as I also don’t think the NHL will start without fans in the stands.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know you are serious when you say that Rodrigue may win the starters’ role in the Bake and, for sure, you could be right – Personally, I think its unlikely. A sparkling end to his junior career but, then again, Stuart Skinner had a sparkling end to his junior career out-deuling Carter Hart in a great run.

    Is the jump from the CHL to AHL greater than the AHL to NHL for goalies just like it is for skaters (often)? I would posit, yes.

    Solid prospect Rodrigue – hopefully there are games for him to play in this fall.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Brantford Boy:
    I wonder which of these ‘legit prospects’ will actually play an extensive role in the NHL… some may have to reinvent there game to play on a checking line as the offense won’t translate in the big league (Khaira).We badly need another Captain Grinder on this team (3C)… which will more than likely come via trade.Are there any present Condors (not necessarily a centre) that can fill that role moving forward?

    I think Bouchard, Lagesson and McLeod are the best bets among the group who played in Bakersfield last season and Lavoie plus Rodrigue are the most intriguing newcomers. Dont know where Lennstrom lands, we’ll have to see.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson and Bouchard would be an enormous first pairing but, LT, I think you are right, neither is likely to spend much, if any, time in the AHL.

    Depending on Green/Benning and potential training camp injuries, I think Bouch is 4RD heading in to the season and ear-marked for Bakersfield. I don’t imagine he is there longer than 10 games or so.

    So many moving parts on the left side but I think the plan would be for Jones to play 3LD, WIllie to be cover 7D with Rusty in another org.

    If they do have to waive Willy, I would be extremely nervous but I think he may clear – lots of “good names” get exposed on the eve of the season and clear. Is Willie a known-commodity?

    I think all Willie needs is the chance to play every day and he will prove he’s ready – injury will provide that this year.

  6. Ben says:

    Gotta feel for Safin. I liked that pick, but kids that endure complex injuries between 16-20 just seem to have a helluva time getting momentum back. Benson might be an exception.

    I’m always torn about G development. You’d like to see more consistency bubbling under in the system, but you’re more likely to find a ready-made solution in a 26 year-old UFA than by pouring 7 years of resources and prayer into a guy.

    They should push the goalie draft age to 20 (and skaters to 19).

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Lennstrom and Niemelainen will sign back in the SHL and Liiga to have a place to play in the fall – on the understanding that they will come back over when training camp fires up?

    When Lennstrom signed, I thought he was nothing more than a depth AHL guy but, from what I’ve read and heard about him (including on LTs show), he’s got a chance at the NHL. Could be a stealth signing if the injury depth is tested and he gets the call and proves to be able to play at the NHL level.

    Hopefully they have enough cover to allow Niemelainen to adjust back to North American hockey with a bit of shelter. Love his size and ability to move – a long shot for the NHL I would think but, hey, you never know.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Last year at this time we were hopeful that Marody could maybe win that 3C spot (or a bottom 6 winger).

    He never came close.

    As it turns out, he felt the effect of the Kessey attack (and other ailments) all year long. From his own mouth, he is finally 100% and I look for a rebound year which likely includes NHL games – maybe not out of camp.

    If he’s going to “make it”, his time is now.

    Skate more and sing less Coop!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve read a number for pieces, comments, etc. thinking that McLeod could potentially play a post-season game this year and could be the 3C next year.

    You never know but, personally, my goal for Ryan is to become a full time center at the AHL level and be a top 6 center at the AHL level by the end of the season – with both special teams.

  10. jp says:

    LT: “this will be a year of pushing for the playoffs instead of trying to win the Calder Cup.”

    I think that captures it. But there’s a surprising amount of skill in those AHL signings. Definitely more than we’re accustomed to. Pretty sure a few of them will make a real contribution. I expect Holland will add a few veterans to the lineup as well once we reach the off season.

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide,

    Those are definitely higher end prospects, which answers the first portion of my badly framed question… I suppose Gambardella and Marody would be my selections for bottom six line duties with PK time… Benson looked great in the last few games with Archibald and Sheahan… just not sure he can “reinvent” his body for a bottom six forechecking/PK role if he’s not on a skill line…

  12. jp says:

    I’ve been thinking about Askarov and goalie draft picks more generally. He’s unlikely to be there when the Oilers pick, but what if he was? Lots of voices saying “goalies are voodoo” and similar. Also, that a goalie pick will take 4-5 years whereas a forward will contribute much sooner.

    Willis showed that goalies are harder to predict, and that teams shy away from picking them early. At the same time, hockey is “mostly goalie” and it’s clear their influence is disproportionate (when they work out) to where NHL teams draft them.

    So, how likely/unlikely are goalie draft picks to succeed vs to forward picks? (knowing that goalies get picked early in the draft less often) And how much longer do goalie picks actually take than forwards?

    Given the importance of goaltending, I thought it would be fair to value a decent NHL goalie about equal to a top 6 forward. So, I’ll use the following as roughly equal criteria for “success” in a season:
    Goalies >20GP >.910SV%
    Forwards >40GP >0.5PPG

    I looked at 5 draft years, from Vasilevskiy at #19 in 2012 to Hart at #48 in 2016 (30 draft slots later). Vasilevskiy was the earliest drafted goalie in that time at #19. I’ll admit those boundaries weren’t entirely arbitrary since they exactly include both Vasilevskiy and Hart. But they also make some nice round numbers (5 years X 30 picks).

    How have the goalies, and forwards, picked between 19th and 48th in the 2012 to 2016 drafts fared? How many became ‘decent’ goalies or ‘top 6’ forwards? How long did it take? How many times did they do it?

    I’ll do the goalies first.
    Draft year, each player’s draft slot, first season they qualified as ‘decent’ (draft +?), how many ‘decent’ seasons they’ve had.

    2012
    19th Vasilevskiy D+4 (5)
    24th Subban D+6 (1) (I didn’t include him as ‘decent’ because he just barely met the criteria one time and has regressed since)
    31st Dansk –
    45th Stolarz –

    2013
    36th Fucale –
    44th Jarry D+7 (1)

    2014
    34th McDonald –
    36th Demko –
    37th Nedeljkovic –
    39th Vanecek –

    2015
    22nd Samsonov D+5 (1)
    42nd Blackwood D+4 (2)

    2016
    48th Hart D+3 (2)

    13 goalies drafted. 5 are decent (not including Subban). So, a 38% “success” rate. But they made it in D+3, D+4, D+4, D+5, D+7. It’s true, they’re taking a long time to contribute in the NHL.

    What about forwards?

    2012
    Failed to meet criteria 13
    Pearson D+5 (2)
    Laughton D+8 (1)

    2013
    Failed to meet criteria 19
    Mantha D+4 (4)
    Burakovsky D+4 (2)

    2014
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Pastrnak D+2 (6)
    Fabbri D+2 (3)
    Schmaltz D+4 (3)
    Kapanen D+5 (2)
    McCann D+6 (1)

    2015
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Aho D+2 (4)
    Beauvalier D+3 (2)
    Konecky D+3 (3)
    Boeser D+3 (3)
    White D+4 (1)

    2016
    Failed to meet criteria 22
    DeBrincat D+2 (3)

    So, 15/97 forwards have reached the ‘top 6’ criteria at least once. 15% success (way less than the 38% of goalies who had success).

    And to summarize how long the players took to make an impact.

    0/13 drafted goalies had emerged by D+2, 1/13 (8%) by D+3, 3/13 (23%) by D+4, 4/13 (31%) by D+5.

    4/97 drafted forwards (4%) had emerged by D+2, 7/97 (7%) by D+3, 11/97 (11%) by D+4, 13/97 (13%) by D+5.

    I didn’t expect that. There are a couple of exceptions, but teams should not be expecting to get a forward who’ll contribute in 2 or 3 or 4 years with picks 19-48. The proportion of goalie picks that turn out successful (by my criteria) is way higher, AND it’s not clear they take longer than forwards.

    Seems that goalie ARE harder to predict, but teams are already avoiding spending picks on them. When teams do pick goalies, they’re having great (spectacular?) success with it. Pretty sure that’s true. And if the league has already over-corrected on the ‘goalies are voodoo’ wisdom, there might be a market inefficiency to exploit there.

    I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying sign me up for Askarov if he’s available at #20.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp:
    I’ve been thinking about Askarov and goalie draft picks more generally. He’s unlikely to be there when the Oilers pick, but what if he was? Lots of voices saying “goalies are voodoo” and similar. Also, that a goalie pick will take 4-5 years whereas a forward will contribute much sooner.

    Willis showed that goalies are harder to predict, and that teams shy away from picking them early. At the same time, hockey is “mostly goalie” and it’s clear their influence is disproportionate (when they work out) to where NHL teams draft them.

    So, how likely/unlikely are goalie draft picks to succeed vs to forward picks? (knowing that goalies get picked less earlier in the draft) And how much longer do goalie picks take than forwards?

    Given the importance of goaltending, I thought it would be fair to value a decent NHL goalie about equal to a top 6 forward. So, I’ll use the following as roughly equal criteria for “success” in a season:
    Goalies >20GP >.910SV%
    Forwards >40GP >0.5PPG

    I looked at 5 draft years, from Vasilevskiy at #19 in 2012 to Hart at #48 in 2016 (30 draft slots later). Vasilevskiy was the earliest drafted goalie in that time at #19. I’ll admit those boundaries weren’t entirely arbitrary since they exactly include both Vasilevskiy and Hart. But they also make some nice round numbers (5 years X 30 picks).

    How have the goalies, and forwards, picked between 19th and 48th in the 2012 to 2016 drafts fared? How many became ‘decent’ goalies or ‘top 6’ forwards? How long did it take? How many times did they do it?

    I’ll do the goalies first.
    Draft year, each player’s draft slot, first season they qualified as ‘decent’ (draft +?), how many ‘decent’ seasons they’ve had.

    2012
    19th Vasilevskiy D+4 (5)
    24th Subban D+6 (1) (I didn’t include him as ‘decent’ because he just barely met the criteria one time and has regressed since)
    31st Dansk –
    45th Stolarz –

    2013
    36th Fucale –
    44th Jarry D+7 (1)

    2014
    34th McDonald –
    36th Demko –
    37th Nedeljkovic –
    39th Vanecek –

    2015
    22nd Samsonov D+5 (1)
    42nd Blackwood D+4 (2)

    2016
    48th Hart D+3 (2)

    13 goalies drafted. 5 are decent (not including Subban). So, a 38% “success” rate. But they made it in D+3, D+4, D+4, D+5, D+7. It’s true, they’re taking a long time to contribute in the NHL.

    What about forwards?

    2012
    Failed to meet criteria 13
    Pearson D+5 (2)
    Laughton D+8 (1)

    2013
    Failed to meet criteria 19
    Mantha D+4 (4)
    Burakovsky D+4 (2)

    2014
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Pastrnak D+2 (6)
    Fabbri D+2 (3)
    Schmaltz D+4 (3)
    Kapanen D+5 (2)
    McCann D+6 (1)

    2015
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Aho D+2 (4)
    Beauvalier D+3 (2)
    Konecky D+3 (3)
    Boeser D+3 (3)
    White D+4 (1)

    2016
    Failed to meet criteria 22
    DeBrincat D+2 (3)

    So, 15/97 forwards have reached the ‘top 6’ criteria at least once. 15% success (way less than the 38% of goalies who had success).

    And to summarize how long the players took to make an impact.

    0/13 drafted goalies had emerged by D+2, 1/13 (8%) by D+3, 3/13 (23%) by D+4, 4/13 (31%) by D+5.

    4/97 drafted forwards (4%) had emerged by D+2, 7/97 (7%) by D+3, 11/97 (11%) by D+4, 13/97 (13%) by D+5.

    I didn’t expect that. There are a couple of exceptions, but teams should not be expecting to get a forward who’ll contribute in 2 or 3 or 4 years with picks 19-48. The proportion of goalie picks that turn out successful (by my criteria) is way higher, and it’s not clear they take longer than forwards.

    Seems that goalie ARE harder to predict, but teams are already avoiding spending picks on them. When teams do pick goalies, they’re having great (spectacular?) success with it. Pretty sure that’s true. And if the league has already over-corrected on the ‘goalies are voodoo’ wisdom, there might be a market inefficiency to exploit there.

    I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying sign me up for Askarov if he’s available at #20.

    Excellent post.

  14. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: First and foremost, here is hoping there is an AHL season.

    I know they are “planning” to start in October but the league has also stated they cannot play without some semblance of fans in the stands.

    I don’t think the AHL starts until the NHL starts in December/January as I also don’t think the NHL will start without fans in the stands.

    Well, the border is closed, covid is out of control in many part of the USA and it’s going to get worse there before it gets better. I’d say the AHL (and NHL) season for 2021 is danger unless the situation changes markedly for the better.

    We will see how baseball and the NFL play out but it’s hard to see everything working out as planned.

  15. slopitch says:

    jp,

    Good post.

    Given the impact of a goaltender, it’s a justifiable bet. Edmonton is a tough hockey market though. I remember Dubnyk taking a while and it wasn’t till he mentally matured that he was able to make a difference. A Russian kid who barely knows English might get chewed up and spit out. But ultimately he’s an elite prospect and we could use one of those. Overall Id probably still prefer to spend the pick on a F. But Askarov would be a fine choice.

  16. Oil2Oilers says:

    jp,

    Excellent post.

  17. Oil2Oilers says:

    With Puljujarvi going all Romeo Void and saying Never Say Never. I hope the big lug comes back to Edmonton. Returning to Edmonton in mid season form as Liiga is restarting in September plus a full Tippet training camp could be just the restart all parties need. The player, team and team mates are all more mature now. Puljujarvi still has a higher up side, and is ready now, compared to any draft pick likely acquired by trading him.

  18. jtblack says:

    slopitch:
    jp,

    Good post.

    Given the impact of a goaltender, it’s a justifiable bet. Edmonton is a tough hockey market though. I remember Dubnyk taking a while and it wasn’t till he mentally matured that he was able to make a difference. A Russian kid who barely knows English might get chewed up and spit out. But ultimately he’s an elite prospect and we could use one of those. Overall Id probably still prefer to spend the pick on a F. But Askarov would be a fine choice.

    if the Oilers did pick Askarov, I would hope they follow the Ilya Samsonov development track. Samsonov stayed in Russia 3 more years. Followed by 1 in the AHL. Then ready for NHL duty.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp:
    I’ve been thinking about Askarov and goalie draft picks more generally. He’s unlikely to be there when the Oilers pick, but what if he was? Lots of voices saying “goalies are voodoo” and similar. Also, that a goalie pick will take 4-5 years whereas a forward will contribute much sooner.

    Willis showed that goalies are harder to predict, and that teams shy away from picking them early. At the same time, hockey is “mostly goalie” and it’s clear their influence is disproportionate (when they work out) to where NHL teams draft them.

    So, how likely/unlikely are goalie draft picks to succeed vs to forward picks? (knowing that goalies get picked early in the draft less often) And how much longer do goalie picks actually take than forwards?

    Given the importance of goaltending, I thought it would be fair to value a decent NHL goalie about equal to a top 6 forward. So, I’ll use the following as roughly equal criteria for “success” in a season:
    Goalies >20GP >.910SV%
    Forwards >40GP >0.5PPG

    I looked at 5 draft years, from Vasilevskiy at #19 in 2012 to Hart at #48 in 2016 (30 draft slots later). Vasilevskiy was the earliest drafted goalie in that time at #19. I’ll admit those boundaries weren’t entirely arbitrary since they exactly include both Vasilevskiy and Hart. But they also make some nice round numbers (5 years X 30 picks).

    How have the goalies, and forwards, picked between 19th and 48th in the 2012 to 2016 drafts fared? How many became ‘decent’ goalies or ‘top 6’ forwards? How long did it take? How many times did they do it?

    I’ll do the goalies first.
    Draft year, each player’s draft slot, first season they qualified as ‘decent’ (draft +?), how many ‘decent’ seasons they’ve had.

    2012
    19th Vasilevskiy D+4 (5)
    24th Subban D+6 (1) (I didn’t include him as ‘decent’ because he just barely met the criteria one time and has regressed since)
    31st Dansk –
    45th Stolarz –

    2013
    36th Fucale –
    44th Jarry D+7 (1)

    2014
    34th McDonald –
    36th Demko –
    37th Nedeljkovic –
    39th Vanecek –

    2015
    22nd Samsonov D+5 (1)
    42nd Blackwood D+4 (2)

    2016
    48th Hart D+3 (2)

    13 goalies drafted. 5 are decent (not including Subban). So, a 38% “success” rate. But they made it in D+3, D+4, D+4, D+5, D+7. It’s true, they’re taking a long time to contribute in the NHL.

    What about forwards?

    2012
    Failed to meet criteria 13
    Pearson D+5 (2)
    Laughton D+8 (1)

    2013
    Failed to meet criteria 19
    Mantha D+4 (4)
    Burakovsky D+4 (2)

    2014
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Pastrnak D+2 (6)
    Fabbri D+2 (3)
    Schmaltz D+4 (3)
    Kapanen D+5 (2)
    McCann D+6 (1)

    2015
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Aho D+2 (4)
    Beauvalier D+3 (2)
    Konecky D+3 (3)
    Boeser D+3 (3)
    White D+4 (1)

    2016
    Failed to meet criteria 22
    DeBrincat D+2 (3)

    So, 15/97 forwards have reached the ‘top 6’ criteria at least once. 15% success (way less than the 38% of goalies who had success).

    And to summarize how long the players took to make an impact.

    0/13 drafted goalies had emerged by D+2, 1/13 (8%) by D+3, 3/13 (23%) by D+4, 4/13 (31%) by D+5.

    4/97 drafted forwards (4%) had emerged by D+2, 7/97 (7%) by D+3, 11/97 (11%) by D+4, 13/97 (13%) by D+5.

    I didn’t expect that. There are a couple of exceptions, but teams should not be expecting to get a forward who’ll contribute in 2 or 3 or 4 years with picks 19-48. The proportion of goalie picks that turn out successful (by my criteria) is way higher, AND it’s not clear they take longer than forwards.

    Seems that goalie ARE harder to predict, but teams are already avoiding spending picks on them. When teams do pick goalies, they’re having great (spectacular?) success with it. Pretty sure that’s true. And if the league has already over-corrected on the ‘goalies are voodoo’ wisdom, there might be a market inefficiency to exploit there.

    I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying sign me up for Askarov if he’s available at #20.

    Nice one.

    A few months ago I made a similar less mathy comment.

    My conclusion was elite players are elite at every position including goaler compared for their youthful peers.

    Given that G is the most important position on the team it actually doesn’t make sense so few resources are applied towards it.

    The question is are the correct assessments being made? Yes there is a failure rate but as you pointed out it is a lower % at G. I think it’s more visible because it’s a binary position so it’s magnified. Other positions are as bad or worse, it just isn’t as visible.

  20. Scungilli Slushy says:

    My goal for prospects is that the ones with the best shot and the newest/youngest ones spike early and sharply and contribute soon.

    But if they don’t have that top end ability and need time I hope the team gives it fo them with full supports to help them maximize their potential.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting stuff here:

    Eric Engels

    @EricEngels

    Over the last 2 days, I’ve been speaking with players from around the NHL who are quite concerned about a return to play. I’m going to paraphrase some of those sentiments over a few tweets here. I want to stress every player I spoke with requested anonymity for obv reasons 1/

    One player said a majority of the players do not want to return to play this summer. Estimated 75%. Though they’re concerned with financial pitfalls of that decision, they’re more concerned about risking contracting the virus/serious injury before cramming in the 2021 season 2/

    Another player said that calls with the NHLPA have been “a joke” and that they have only revolved around the financial situation. 3/

    All players I spoke with are frustrated about being kept largely in the dark about how they’ll safely be able to resume play. 5/5

  22. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Interesting stuff here:

    Eric Engels

    @EricEngels

    Over the last 2 days, I’ve been speaking with players from around the NHL who are quite concerned about a return to play. I’m going to paraphrase some of those sentiments over a few tweets here. I want to stress every player I spoke with requested anonymity for obv reasons 1/

    One player said a majority of the players do not want to return to play this summer. Estimated 75%. Though they’re concerned with financial pitfalls of that decision, they’re more concerned about risking contracting the virus/serious injury before cramming in the 2021 season 2/

    Another player said that calls with the NHLPA have been “a joke” and that they have only revolved around the financial situation. 3/

    All players I spoke with are frustrated about being kept largely in the dark about how they’ll safely be able to resume play. 5/5

    It seems like old Kevin Bieska knew what he was talking about a few weeks ago when he said the exact same thing.

  23. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Interesting stuff here:

    Eric Engels

    @EricEngels

    Over the last 2 days, I’ve been speaking with players from around the NHL who are quite concerned about a return to play. I’m going to paraphrase some of those sentiments over a few tweets here. I want to stress every player I spoke with requested anonymity for obv reasons 1/

    One player said a majority of the players do not want to return to play this summer. Estimated 75%. Though they’re concerned with financial pitfalls of that decision, they’re more concerned about risking contracting the virus/serious injury before cramming in the 2021 season 2/

    Another player said that calls with the NHLPA have been “a joke” and that they have only revolved around the financial situation. 3/

    All players I spoke with are frustrated about being kept largely in the dark about how they’ll safely be able to resume play. 5/5

    So, if the players do vote against a return to play, where does that leave the draft lottery?

    I.e. do all the all the play in teams still get a shot at number 1 overall? Or would they scrap everything they did before and revert to a traditional lottery?

  24. defmn says:

    Reja: It seemslike old Kevin Bieska knew what he was talking about a few weeks agowhen he said the exact same thing.

    I would suggest that no matter what is decided you will read media reports about unhappiness. Unhappiness is the bread and butter of journalism.

  25. defmn says:

    Every time somebody mentions that politicians should listen to experts this should pop up on their screen.

    https://twitter.com/Tony__Heller/status/1278026745661161474/photo/1

  26. Side says:

    defmn:
    Every time somebody mentions that politicians should listen to experts this should pop up on their screen.

    https://twitter.com/Tony__Heller/status/1278026745661161474/photo/1

    Or how about people take the time to actually read/listen to what the experts say for context, and not cherry pick sentences:

    “On Jan. 21 – the day the first COVID-19 case in the U.S. was confirmed – Fauci appeared on conservative Newsmax TV. “Bottom line, we don’t have to worry about this one, right?” asked Greg Kelly, the host.

    Fauci said, “Obviously, you need to take it seriously and do the kind of things the (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and the Department of Homeland Security is doing. But this is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.””

    January 26

    ” “The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.””

    He also repeated ad nauseum that it was an evolving situation that needed to be looked at daily.

    On the flip side, if he did say it was very serious and out of control, politicians would gladly reduce it down to being a hoax or overblown (oh wait that happened anyway).

  27. Side says:

    oops, forgot what site I was on here.

    Are people still citing Rush Limbaugh as an authority on the US’ response to COVID around here?

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reports of Bouchard and Nurse on their way back to Edmonton today.

    Here is hoping all those from out of country (i.e. all the Europeans, Neal, Yamamoto, etc.) have made their way back as well.

    Lets do this – time to circulate the plan and vote!

  29. hunter1909 says:

    Side: Are people still citing Rush Limbaugh as an authority on the US’ response to COVID around here?

    Are you trying to say he isn’t!?

  30. Side says:

    hunter1909: Are you trying to say he isn’t!?

    I lol’d.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    slopitch: Edmonton is a tough hockey market though.

    Not so long as management ensures a reasonable rate of on ice success.

    Tough for 3rd liners and 2nd pair defencemen pouting over their status in the 1984-90 dynasty they toiled for perhaps.

  32. defmn says:

    Side: Or how about people take the time to actually read/listen to what the experts say for context, and not cherry pick sentences:

    “On Jan. 21 – the day the first COVID-19 case in the U.S. was confirmed – Fauci appeared on conservative Newsmax TV. “Bottom line, we don’t have to worry about this one, right?” asked Greg Kelly, the host.

    Fauci said, “Obviously, you need to take it seriously and do the kind of things the (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and the Department of Homeland Security is doing. But this is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.””

    January 26

    ” “The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.””

    He also repeated ad nauseum that it was an evolving situation that needed to be looked at daily.

    On the flip side, if he did say it was very serious and out of control, politicians would gladly reduce it down to being a hoax or overblown (oh wait that happened anyway).

    Cherry picking? The “added context” is subordinate to the quote as it was delivered to the general public.

    The problem with listening to experts is that you can find any opinion you want in that group.

    I’m sorry that you don’t like an expert being pointed out for being 100% wrong but

    “The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.”

    was an expert opinion that was completely wrong and there is no cherry picking in that assertion.

  33. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Interesting stuff here:

    Eric Engels

    @EricEngels

    Over the last 2 days, I’ve been speaking with players from around the NHL who are quite concerned about a return to play. I’m going to paraphrase some of those sentiments over a few tweets here. I want to stress every player I spoke with requested anonymity for obv reasons 1/

    One player said a majority of the players do not want to return to play this summer. Estimated 75%. Though they’re concerned with financial pitfalls of that decision, they’re more concerned about risking contracting the virus/serious injury before cramming in the 2021 season 2/

    Another player said that calls with the NHLPA have been “a joke” and that they have only revolved around the financial situation. 3/

    All players I spoke with are frustrated about being kept largely in the dark about how they’ll safely be able to resume play. 5/5

    I think he pulled 75% out of his ass. The players who are adamantly opposed to playing will speak like most guys want that, too (build their narrative). However, I don’t believe that to be true. The guys with young families will be more opposed and the guys without kids would likely want to play for a Stanley Cup. We will see when they hold the PA vote, but if there was that much opposition, the vote would not pass, even with the financial ramifications. Engels is talking to Canadiens who a) don’t think they have a chance and b) are a vocalizing their resistance more than the guys who truly want to play again.

  34. Darth Tu says:

    Material Elvis: I think he pulled 75% out of his ass.The players who are adamantly opposed to playing will speak like most guys want that, too (build their narrative). However, I don’t believe that to be true.The guys with young families will be more opposed and the guys without kids would likely want to play for a Stanley Cup.We will see when they hold the PA vote, but if there was that much opposition, the vote would not pass, even with the financial ramifications.Engels is talking to Canadiens who a) don’t think they have a chance and b) are a vocalizing their resistance more than the guys who truly want to play again.

    I wonder about the escrow thing too. If they opt not to play, how hard does that hit Toews’ pocket this year? He’s a grumpy boy every post season already.

    Not that I’m saying money should be the deciding factor, and I do want hockey back, however I’m very much in the camp of only wanting this to go ahead if it’s as safe as possible for all involved.

  35. Side says:

    defmn: Cherry picking? The “added context” is subordinate to the quote as it was delivered to the general public.

    The problem with listening to experts is that you can find any opinion you want in that group.

    I’m sorry that you don’t like an expert being pointed out for being 100% wrong but

    “The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously.”

    was an expert opinion that was completely wrong and there is no cherry picking in that assertion.

    Are you suggesting that experts have to be prophets or refuse to change their opinion or stance based on changing or new information? Fauci was an expert that qualified his statements with “this could change though” meaning, well, things can change. And they have. And his response did change.

    Trump is a very good example of a politician who thinks he knows more than experts. He seems to think that COVID will go away on its own, despite what his “experts” say. How is that going for the US right now?

    You are right when you say you can find an expert with any opinion you want. I’m just not sure why this is the hill you are choosing. Are you trying to say that currently there are a lot of experts who disagree with the severity of COVID and it’s impact on the world? That it’s all overblown or something?

    From where I sit, most experts have changed their views on COVID but.. can’t really say the same about politicians. Who, oddly, your comment seems to be in support of.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some solid stuff here from Matty:

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/ethan-bear-and-patrick-russell-join-edmonton-oilers-voluntary-skate

    – 10 Oilers are currently self-quarantining

    – The extras from Bakersfield for main camp will likely be goalie Stuart Skinner, defencemen Evan Bouchard, William Lagesson and forwards Tyler Benson, Markus Granlund, Ryan McLeod and Cooper Marody.

    – Add Broberg and Rodrigue to the above list

    ———————

    No real surprises at all.

    Some may be surprised to see Granlund given he’s been in Europe and already agreed to go to the KHL for next season. Good on him to agree to come back.

    Marody over Jurco (who is healthy now).

    It’ll be good for Coop to continue his healthy recovery.

  37. defmn says:

    Material Elvis: Eric Engels

    Two follow up tweets.

    Eric Engels
    @EricEngels
    ·
    3h
    As a follow up to my thread, my opinion is the players I spoke with, and many more who have spoken publicly, just want some clarity to emerge in short order. They want to be able to say they feel assured they’ll be protected. Too many of them don’t have enough details yet. 1/2
    Eric Engels
    @EricEngels
    ·
    3h
    I know that’s by design—to ensure ideas that are being considered but not necessarily tabled don’t leak/ cause mayhem. It’s understandable some players are concerned+ frustrated. They stopped in March and are expected to be in camp in 2 weeks and still don’t have answers. 2/2

  38. godot10 says:

    Eh Team: Well, the border is closed, covid is out of control in many part of the USA and it’s going to get worse there before it gets better. I’d say the AHL (and NHL) season for 2021 is danger unless the situation changes markedly for the better.

    We will see how baseball and the NFL play out but it’s hard to see everything working out as planned.

    The NHL Pacific Division can move the California division of the AHL to Western Canada.

  39. defmn says:

    Darth Tu:

    Not that I’m saying money should be the deciding factor, and I do want hockey back, however I’m very much in the camp of only wanting this to go ahead if it’s as safe as possible for all involved.

    I think it is the same conversation that is going on at kitchen tables everywhere in North America right now except that is more public and for big bucks. There is no good answer so everybody is trying to find the best compromise.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Well, the border is closed, covid is out of control in many part of the USA and it’s going to get worse there before it gets better. I’d say the AHL (and NHL) season for 2021 is danger unless the situation changes markedly for the better.

    We will see how baseball and the NFL play out but it’s hard to see everything working out as planned.

    Well, end of December (when next season is likely to start) is a LONG time away and alot can change (and get better) in that time.

    I mean, think about it. It feels like we’ve been “in this pandemic” for sooooo long, doesn’t it?

    Well, its been 4 months. End of December is 6 months away.

  41. godot10 says:

    jp:
    I’ve been thinking about Askarov and goalie draft picks more generally. He’s unlikely to be there when the Oilers pick, but what if he was? Lots of voices saying “goalies are voodoo” and similar. Also, that a goalie pick will take 4-5 years whereas a forward will contribute much sooner.

    Willis showed that goalies are harder to predict, and that teams shy away from picking them early. At the same time, hockey is “mostly goalie” and it’s clear their influence is disproportionate (when they work out) to where NHL teams draft them.

    So, how likely/unlikely are goalie draft picks to succeed vs to forward picks? (knowing that goalies get picked early in the draft less often) And how much longer do goalie picks actually take than forwards?

    Given the importance of goaltending, I thought it would be fair to value a decent NHL goalie about equal to a top 6 forward. So, I’ll use the following as roughly equal criteria for “success” in a season:
    Goalies >20GP >.910SV%
    Forwards >40GP >0.5PPG

    I looked at 5 draft years, from Vasilevskiy at #19 in 2012 to Hart at #48 in 2016 (30 draft slots later). Vasilevskiy was the earliest drafted goalie in that time at #19. I’ll admit those boundaries weren’t entirely arbitrary since they exactly include both Vasilevskiy and Hart. But they also make some nice round numbers (5 years X 30 picks).

    How have the goalies, and forwards, picked between 19th and 48th in the 2012 to 2016 drafts fared? How many became ‘decent’ goalies or ‘top 6’ forwards? How long did it take? How many times did they do it?

    I’ll do the goalies first.
    Draft year, each player’s draft slot, first season they qualified as ‘decent’ (draft +?), how many ‘decent’ seasons they’ve had.

    2012
    19th Vasilevskiy D+4 (5)
    24th Subban D+6 (1) (I didn’t include him as ‘decent’ because he just barely met the criteria one time and has regressed since)
    31st Dansk –
    45th Stolarz –

    2013
    36th Fucale –
    44th Jarry D+7 (1)

    2014
    34th McDonald –
    36th Demko –
    37th Nedeljkovic –
    39th Vanecek –

    2015
    22nd Samsonov D+5 (1)
    42nd Blackwood D+4 (2)

    2016
    48th Hart D+3 (2)

    13 goalies drafted. 5 are decent (not including Subban). So, a 38% “success” rate. But they made it in D+3, D+4, D+4, D+5, D+7. It’s true, they’re taking a long time to contribute in the NHL.

    What about forwards?

    2012
    Failed to meet criteria 13
    Pearson D+5 (2)
    Laughton D+8 (1)

    2013
    Failed to meet criteria 19
    Mantha D+4 (4)
    Burakovsky D+4 (2)

    2014
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Pastrnak D+2 (6)
    Fabbri D+2 (3)
    Schmaltz D+4 (3)
    Kapanen D+5 (2)
    McCann D+6 (1)

    2015
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Aho D+2 (4)
    Beauvalier D+3 (2)
    Konecky D+3 (3)
    Boeser D+3 (3)
    White D+4 (1)

    2016
    Failed to meet criteria 22
    DeBrincat D+2 (3)

    So, 15/97 forwards have reached the ‘top 6’ criteria at least once. 15% success (way less than the 38% of goalies who had success).

    And to summarize how long the players took to make an impact.

    0/13 drafted goalies had emerged by D+2, 1/13 (8%) by D+3, 3/13 (23%) by D+4, 4/13 (31%) by D+5.

    4/97 drafted forwards (4%) had emerged by D+2, 7/97 (7%) by D+3, 11/97 (11%) by D+4, 13/97 (13%) by D+5.

    I didn’t expect that. There are a couple of exceptions, but teams should not be expecting to get a forward who’ll contribute in 2 or 3 or 4 years with picks 19-48. The proportion of goalie picks that turn out successful (by my criteria) is way higher, AND it’s not clear they take longer than forwards.

    Seems that goalie ARE harder to predict, but teams are already avoiding spending picks on them. When teams do pick goalies, they’re having great (spectacular?) success with it. Pretty sure that’s true. And if the league has already over-corrected on the ‘goalies are voodoo’ wisdom, there might be a market inefficiency to exploit there.

    I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying sign me up for Askarov if he’s available at #20.

    There is a massive difference between drafting a goaltender in the 1st round and drafting one in the middle of the 2nd round (Jarry, Hart).

    Take a longer historic sample an only include players and goaltenders in the 1st round.

    The debate has never been whether one should pick a goaltender in the middle of the 2nd round. The debate is whether one should pick a goaltender in the first round, And one is obfuscating the analysis by including players selected in the 2nd round.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: So, if the players do vote against a return to play, where does that leave the draft lottery?

    I.e. do all the all the play in teams still get a shot at number 1 overall? Or would they scrap everything they did before and revert to a traditional lottery?

    The league has ruled on this.

    If there is no Return to Play, the lottery results continue and teams 8-15 are in the 2nd lottery to determine the 1st overall – Oilers not included. Terrible scenario for the Oilers.

  43. Jordan says:

    NBA got this right – let the individual players decide if they want to play.

    Let the NHL / NHLPA build the structure, and then let the players choose if they want to participate or not.

    If 50% of the NHLers opt out, then the teams can call up their prospects / AHLers as required.

    Great opportunity for some depth guys to get a shot on the biggest stage in hockey.

    Let everyone make a choice about their priorities and let it play out from there.

  44. Darth Tu says:

    defmn: I think it is the same conversation that is going on at kitchen tables everywhere in North America right now except that is more public and for big bucks. There is no good answer so everybody is trying to find the best compromise.

    Of course. The difference with elite sports is that a lot of the players are able to at least consider not playing/striking for a year or two and still be doing well financially. The rest of us average people are more tied in to actually working, even if we don’t feel fully safe doing so.

  45. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: The league has ruled on this.

    If there is no Return to Play, the lottery results continue and teams 8-15 are in the 2nd lottery to determine the 1st overall – Oilers not included.Terrible scenario for the Oilers.

    Excellent. So Taylor still has a shot at winning the 1st overall pick for Arizona.

  46. Side says:

    Hmm, my reply to Defmn is awaiting moderation.

    I will take this as a sign to return to periodic visits and lurking.

    Be well all!

  47. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Interesting stuff here:

    Eric Engels

    @EricEngels

    Over the last 2 days, I’ve been speaking with players from around the NHL who are quite concerned about a return to play. I’m going to paraphrase some of those sentiments over a few tweets here. I want to stress every player I spoke with requested anonymity for obv reasons 1/

    One player said a majority of the players do not want to return to play this summer. Estimated 75%. Though they’re concerned with financial pitfalls of that decision, they’re more concerned about risking contracting the virus/serious injury before cramming in the 2021 season 2/

    Another player said that calls with the NHLPA have been “a joke” and that they have only revolved around the financial situation. 3/

    All players I spoke with are frustrated about being kept largely in the dark about how they’ll safely be able to resume play. 5/5

    Each player indiviually is reportedly being given an opt out. Anyone who doesn’t want to play doesn’t have to.

    So what are they complaining about.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Side:
    Hmm, my reply to Defmn is awaiting moderation.

    I will take this as a sign to return to periodic visits and lurking.

    Be well all!

    It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

  49. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar: If there is no Return to Play, the lottery results continue and teams 8-15 are in the 2nd lottery to determine the 1st overall – Oilers not included. Terrible scenario for the Oilers.

    I wouldn’t call it terrible for the Oilers; they would be drafting at the same position (20) they would have if the season was canceled in March. The real loser would be Winnipeg which was in the 12th position that won the #1 pick last week; they would go from having the 1st pick to having a 12.5% chance at it.

  50. Material Elvis says:

    Darth Tu: I wonder about the escrow thing too. If they opt not to play, how hard does that hit Toews’ pocket this year? He’s a grumpy boy every post season already.

    Not that I’m saying money should be the deciding factor, and I do want hockey back, however I’m very much in the camp of only wanting this to go ahead if it’s as safe as possible for all involved.

    If they decide not to play, it will be a mess. The players will take it on the chin financially for some time (all of next year and beyond). If they want to be safe, announce the Hub cities ASAP and get these guys into a bubble. Phase two training in the US will only lead to more infections. Time to announce Toronto and Edmonton as the two hubs and get the show on the road.

  51. Material Elvis says:

    Lowetide: It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

    Viagra is flagged?! What about Cialis, LT? The stuff is amazing…

  52. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

    Bahahahaha …. there will be a baby boom in 2021 …. Viagra prob been a big part of that 🙂

  53. Side says:

    Lowetide: It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

    This is bullshit. Talking about Trump, Trudeau and their Viagra usage is one of my favourite topics!

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per David Pagnotta;

    CBA negotiations & hub city talks are still very ongoing, as both sides anticipate a long night ahead. Some key items must be addressed by midnight, such as contracts expiring (extending that) & bonuses payable July 1. If extension isn’t done, bonuses must still be paid tmrw

    On hubs… Told Edmonton has gained significant traction, as recent concerns over Vegas have been discussed. Toronto still considered a favourite in a very fluid environment – as we’ve all seen. But no final decisions, still.

    It’s likely the preference to have all matter (CBA & RTP language) all together in one full vote before anything is revealed publicly, in terms of being final. But some items, if agreed to tonight, could come in interim deals regarding contract date extension, bonus payouts, etc.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: I wouldn’t call it terrible for the Oilers; they would be drafting at the same position (20) they would have if the season was canceled in March. The real loser would be Winnipeg which was in the 12th position that won the #1 pick last week; they would go from having the 1st pick to having a 12.5% chance at it.

    Well, they don’t get a chance to play in the playoffs and win the cup and they don’t get a chance to move up to 1st in the draft……

  56. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

    I assume the quote getting caught was something along the lines “who needs viagra when you can look at seminude pictures of Trump and Trudeau”

  57. jp says:

    godot10: There is a massive difference between drafting a goaltender in the 1st round and drafting one in the middle of the 2nd round (Jarry, Hart).

    Take a longer historic sample an only include players and goaltenders in the 1st round.

    The debate has never been whether one should pick a goaltender in the middle of the 2nd round.The debate is whether one should pick a goaltender in the first round,And one is obfuscating the analysis by including players selected in the 2nd round.

    I mean… you can feel free to repeat this with just first rounders and more years if you believe it will change the conclusion.

    The best goaltenders in each draft class are generally being selected in the late first or 2nd round so that seems a reasonable sample to look at.

    FWIW 3 of 3 1st round goalies 2012-16 were successes by my criteria (though I didn’t originally include Subban because he hasn’t sustained, so far).

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Shannon
    @JShannonhl
    ·
    9m
    All indications pointing to a “Made in Canada” for the Hubs.

    Amongst other things, the increased virus cases in 36 states, have Edmonton and Toronto has the hub cities for the NHL.

  59. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    John Shannon
    @JShannonhl
    ·
    9m
    All indications pointing to a “Made in Canada” for the Hubs.

    Amongst other things, the increased virus cases in 36 states, have Edmonton and Toronto has the hub cities for the NHL.

    Very interesting ..

  60. defmn says:

    Side: Are you suggesting that experts have to be prophets or refuse to change their opinion or stance based on changing or new information? Fauci was an expert that qualified his statements with “this could change though” meaning, well, things can change. And they have. And his response did change.

    Trump is a very good example of a politician who thinks he knows more than experts. He seems to think that COVID will go away on its own, despite what his “experts” say. How is that going for the US right now?

    You are right when you say you can find an expert with any opinion you want. I’m just not sure why this is the hill you are choosing. Are you trying to say that currently there are a lot of experts who disagree with the severity of COVID and it’s impact on the world? That it’s all overblown or something?

    From where I sit, most experts have changed their views on COVID but.. can’t really say the same about politicians. Who, oddly, your comment seems to be in support of.

    I think your own bias is showing.

    I was simply making the observation that there is a reason why expert opinion should not be taken as gospel.

    No more, no less.

    This goes back to a lot of discussions here where blame was ascribed to certain politicians – which is why I mentioned them – and I pointed out that having worked for politicians I know for a fact that they do not arrive at decisions without being advised by numerous experts on the subject under discussion but that the problem is that expert opinions are never unanimous. They are often coloured by those expert’s own political views.

    That was all.

    All the rest was you thinking you can read my mind and being a jerk about what you thought I meant.

  61. defmn says:

    Lowetide: It has cleared spam filter caught it because the word Trump and Trudeau are now flagged, along with Viagra.

    An interesting trifecta.

    Probably a short story could be constructed out of those three ideas for somebody with a slightly malicious sense of humour. 😉

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    I wonder which of these ‘legit prospects’ will actually play an extensive role in the NHL… some may have to reinvent there game to play on a checking line as the offense won’t translate in the big league (Khaira).We badly need another Captain Grinder on this team (3C)… which will more than likely come via trade.Are there any present Condors (not necessarily a centre) that can fill that role moving forward?

    Bouchard is as close to a lock to play an extensive role in the future as we have – it would be shocking if he didn’t.

    I would suggest that both Ryan McLeod and Kril Maksimov could develop in to that bottom 6 “grinder” you suggest – both have skill and 2-way acumen. Kril should improve his skating over the next few years (hopefully) and could take him to the next level.

  63. Harpers Hair says:

    Some baseball news…

    All minor league baseball…AAA, AA and short season leagues will not play in 2020.

  64. Reja says:

    defmn: I would suggest that no matter what is decided you will read media reports about unhappiness. Unhappiness is the bread and butter of journalism.

    Bieksa knows what he’s talking about when he made this statements I figured 60% 40% they won’t be able to pull this off now I’m saying 80% 20%. I say Gary and his henchmen cant pull this charade off playing Stanley Cup hockey after a couple of practices with no fans in August with the 2nd wave coming.

  65. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    John Shannon
    @JShannonhl
    ·
    9m
    All indications pointing to a “Made in Canada” for the Hubs.

    Amongst other things, the increased virus cases in 36 states, have Edmonton and Toronto has the hub cities for the NHL.

    Perhaps just picking up Canadian sports twitter, but this afternoon local Vegas twitter accounts with tens of thousand of followers in the sports media and hotel biz are sounding as negative on Vegas as Van media was positive before the impasse.

    I’ve been extremely negative about the chances of Gary risking being a twitter target if they fled the U.S. But the outbreak noise is getting loud enough he might be able to slip away without painting a target on the NHL.

    But Chicago is not out of the running.

    local Edmonton updates:

    outdoor seated audience events: increasing to 200.
    indoor seated audience events OR outdoor social remain at 100.
    indoor social remain at 100.
    tracing from the 4 Edmonton bar cases from last week is at 40 cases total.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: Bieksa knows what he’s talking about when he made this statements I figured 60% 40% they won’t be able to pull this off now I’m saying 80% 20%. I say Gary and his henchmen cant pull this charade off playing Stanley Cup hockey after a couple of practices with no fans in August with the 2nd wave coming.

    I’ll bet you’re fun at parties too.

  67. N64 says:

    hunter1909: I’ll bet you’re fun at parties too.

    ~ being the life of the party is so pre-covid ~

  68. leadfarmer says:

    As I’ve been saying if the NHL wants to finish the season they need to put both hubs in Canada. The players of course would much rather be in Vegas or LA but I would run from the south US.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Gotta feel for Safin. I liked that pick, but kids that endure complex injuries between 16-20 just seem to have a helluva time getting momentum back. Benson might be an exception.

    I’m always torn about G development. You’d like to see more consistency bubbling under in the system, but you’re more likely to find a ready-made solution in a 26 year-old UFA than by pouring 7 years of resources and prayer into a guy.

    They should push the goalie draft age to 20 (and skaters to 19).

    Man, everything was set up for Safin after that trade to Halifax – going to play on a powerhouse that was hosting the M. Cup but, then, boom, essentially a lost season and it seems he hasn’t recovered yet.

    Here is hoping he gains traction in his 2nd year pro.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I’ve been thinking about Askarov and goalie draft picks more generally. He’s unlikely to be there when the Oilers pick, but what if he was? Lots of voices saying “goalies are voodoo” and similar. Also, that a goalie pick will take 4-5 years whereas a forward will contribute much sooner.

    Willis showed that goalies are harder to predict, and that teams shy away from picking them early. At the same time, hockey is “mostly goalie” and it’s clear their influence is disproportionate (when they work out) to where NHL teams draft them.

    So, how likely/unlikely are goalie draft picks to succeed vs to forward picks? (knowing that goalies get picked early in the draft less often) And how much longer do goalie picks actually take than forwards?

    Given the importance of goaltending, I thought it would be fair to value a decent NHL goalie about equal to a top 6 forward. So, I’ll use the following as roughly equal criteria for “success” in a season:
    Goalies >20GP >.910SV%
    Forwards >40GP >0.5PPG

    I looked at 5 draft years, from Vasilevskiy at #19 in 2012 to Hart at #48 in 2016 (30 draft slots later). Vasilevskiy was the earliest drafted goalie in that time at #19. I’ll admit those boundaries weren’t entirely arbitrary since they exactly include both Vasilevskiy and Hart. But they also make some nice round numbers (5 years X 30 picks).

    How have the goalies, and forwards, picked between 19th and 48th in the 2012 to 2016 drafts fared? How many became ‘decent’ goalies or ‘top 6’ forwards? How long did it take? How many times did they do it?

    I’ll do the goalies first.
    Draft year, each player’s draft slot, first season they qualified as ‘decent’ (draft +?), how many ‘decent’ seasons they’ve had.

    2012
    19th Vasilevskiy D+4 (5)
    24th Subban D+6 (1) (I didn’t include him as ‘decent’ because he just barely met the criteria one time and has regressed since)
    31st Dansk –
    45th Stolarz –

    2013
    36th Fucale –
    44th Jarry D+7 (1)

    2014
    34th McDonald –
    36th Demko –
    37th Nedeljkovic –
    39th Vanecek –

    2015
    22nd Samsonov D+5 (1)
    42nd Blackwood D+4 (2)

    2016
    48th Hart D+3 (2)

    13 goalies drafted. 5 are decent (not including Subban). So, a 38% “success” rate. But they made it in D+3, D+4, D+4, D+5, D+7. It’s true, they’re taking a long time to contribute in the NHL.

    What about forwards?

    2012
    Failed to meet criteria 13
    Pearson D+5 (2)
    Laughton D+8 (1)

    2013
    Failed to meet criteria 19
    Mantha D+4 (4)
    Burakovsky D+4 (2)

    2014
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Pastrnak D+2 (6)
    Fabbri D+2 (3)
    Schmaltz D+4 (3)
    Kapanen D+5 (2)
    McCann D+6 (1)

    2015
    Failed to meet criteria 14
    Aho D+2 (4)
    Beauvalier D+3 (2)
    Konecky D+3 (3)
    Boeser D+3 (3)
    White D+4 (1)

    2016
    Failed to meet criteria 22
    DeBrincat D+2 (3)

    So, 15/97 forwards have reached the ‘top 6’ criteria at least once. 15% success (way less than the 38% of goalies who had success).

    And to summarize how long the players took to make an impact.

    0/13 drafted goalies had emerged by D+2, 1/13 (8%) by D+3, 3/13 (23%) by D+4, 4/13 (31%) by D+5.

    4/97 drafted forwards (4%) had emerged by D+2, 7/97 (7%) by D+3, 11/97 (11%) by D+4, 13/97 (13%) by D+5.

    I didn’t expect that. There are a couple of exceptions, but teams should not be expecting to get a forward who’ll contribute in 2 or 3 or 4 years with picks 19-48. The proportion of goalie picks that turn out successful (by my criteria) is way higher, AND it’s not clear they take longer than forwards.

    Seems that goalie ARE harder to predict, but teams are already avoiding spending picks on them. When teams do pick goalies, they’re having great (spectacular?) success with it. Pretty sure that’s true. And if the league has already over-corrected on the ‘goalies are voodoo’ wisdom, there might be a market inefficiency to exploit there.

    I guess that’s a long-winded way of saying sign me up for Askarov if he’s available at #20.

    Excellent post, as others have mentioned.

    As a bit of Devils’ Advocate, it seems to me that there are generally good-great goalies available pretty much every off-season either by free agency or trade without a massive acquisition cost. No, the elite one’s don’t come available but there are always solid options, or at least it seems that way.

    I wonder how many of the tier B starters in the league (or even the tier A) was drafted and developed by their current teams and how many were acquired (and at what cost).

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    With Puljujarvi going all Romeo Void and saying Never Say Never. I hope the big lug comes back to Edmonton. Returning to Edmonton in mid season form as Liiga is restarting in September plus a full Tippet training camp could be just the restart all parties need. The player, team and team mates are all more mature now. Puljujarvi still has a higher up side, and is ready now, compared to any draft pick likely acquired by trading him.

    100% agree – sign with Karpat, start the year and then come on over for training camp – feel free to sign with the Oilers first and get loaned to Karpat on the understanding you’ll come back over for camp.

    One nitpick: Liiga starts Oct 1 this year – the latest of the European leagues.

  72. N64 says:

    leadfarmer:
    As I’ve been saying if the NHL wants to finish the season they need to put both hubs in Canada.The players of course would much rather be in Vegas or LA but I would run from the south US.

    Wonder what the Euro players would vote if phase 3 moved directly into 2 Canadian hubs and they could skip entering the US right now

  73. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: 100% agree – sign with Karpat, start the year and then come on over for training camp – feel free to sign with the Oilers first and get loaned to Karpat on the understanding you’ll come back over for camp.

    One nitpick: Liiga starts Oct 1 this year – the latest of the European leagues.

    Does either or both cases (loan or the contract exit ) allow players that play a game in the Euro season to come over without waivers?

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: I wonder about the escrow thing too. If they opt not to play, how hard does that hit Toews’ pocket this year? He’s a grumpy boy every post season already.

    Not that I’m saying money should be the deciding factor, and I do want hockey back, however I’m very much in the camp of only wanting this to go ahead if it’s as safe as possible for all involved.

    Taking aside the likely Return to Play and related MOU for an extended CBA that is dealing with short term financial matters (setting an arbitrary cap for a few years, caping escrow at 20% for next year and decreasing from there, etc.), from earlier accounts, playing vs. not playing this summer would have about a 7-8% effect on escrow.

    I think they were talking about the difference between 27% and 35% escrow.

    Of course, no portion of the escrow would ever go back to the players – the owners would be entitled to it all.

    Essentially, agreeing to play in conjunction with a new CBA extension and financial metrics for the next few years will be massive to the players in the short term – essentially the owners are agreeing to be made whole over a number of years.

    To be fair, the plan includes a one-time 10% salary deferral for next season, however, its a deferral/hold-back that will be 100% payable to the players at some point – its just to help the owners with short term operating expenses.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Two follow uptweets.

    Eric Engels
    @EricEngels
    ·
    3h
    As a follow up to my thread, my opinion is the players I spoke with, and many more who have spoken publicly, just want some clarity to emerge in short order. They want to be able to say they feel assured they’ll be protected. Too many of them don’t have enough details yet. 1/2
    Eric Engels
    @EricEngels
    ·
    3h
    I know that’s by design—to ensure ideas that are being considered but not necessarily tabled don’t leak/ cause mayhem. It’s understandable some players are concerned+ frustrated. They stopped in March and are expected to be in camp in 2 weeks and still don’t have answers. 2/2

    That’s an interesting follow up as Brian Lawton had a differing view today when on with Stauff.

    Bob asked him if players were generally “in the know” or “educated” about things like Covid numbers in the potential destinations and Lawton said (to paraphrase, not quote), not really – he wished they were educating themselves more as he believes most are just waiting for the decision on when and where – just waiting for instruction.

    I think its best to take all these types of information pieces with a grain of salt – no one player, agent, insider, etc. seems to know what the union overall thinks – there are various different pockets with different levels of concern and desire, it seems.

  76. Reja says:

    hunter1909: I’ll bet you’re fun at parties too.

    What parties the no fun steal your pension and life savings virus is just getting started. I just feel sorry for the younger generation they’ll never see every lounge packed with folks during happy hour, live music free chicken wings and potato skins and the sweet smell of racy woman.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    NBA got this right – let the individual players decide if they want to play.

    Let the NHL / NHLPA build the structure, and then let the players choose if they want to participate or not.

    If 50% of the NHLers opt out, then the teams can call up their prospects / AHLers as required.

    Great opportunity for some depth guys to get a shot on the biggest stage in hockey.

    Let everyone make a choice about their priorities and let it play out from there.

    From accounts, the Return to Play will indeed have an opt out option.

    While I would think a couple players will use the opt out I don’t think it will be more than a handful.

    Shit, Markus Granlund is joining the Oilers – he has all but zero chance of making the opening night lineup, he isn’t getting paid, he’s not coming back to the team next year but he’s heading over from Europe to join the team.

    I know the players have concerns but they also want to compete – as a generality.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side:
    Hmm, my reply to Defmn is awaiting moderation.

    I will take this as a sign to return to periodic visits and lurking.

    Be well all!

    I would suggest that would be due to a word (or words) included in it that automatically subject posts to moderation – for example naming the US president is one.

  79. defmn says:

    jp:

    Thanks for a really interesting post. Lots of info to think about.

    I went to NHL.com to take a look at which goalies have been posting what kind of numbers. It doesn’t directly address your look at whether or not to draft a goalie in the 1st round but it offers a perspective on the subject.

    I looked at the last 3 seasons and goalies who had played a minimum of 75 games over those 3 seasons – so an average of 25 per season.

    The best Sv% belonged to Raanta at .923 and there were 39 goalies who averaged .910 or better with Mike Smith being one of those. Koskinen at .911 BTW.

    So if you assume 30 shots per game and a 50 game per season starting goalie scenario – just to keep the math tidy – you get 1,500 shots per season on that goalie.

    At a .923 save % that means that he let in 115.5 goals in those 50 games.

    At a .910 save % he let in 135 goals.

    There is a whole cluster of goalies whose save% is around .915. Seventeen goalies of the 39 had Sv% between .917 and .913. At .915 the team has been scored on 127.5 times over those 50 games or 12 more goals than the goalie with the best average over the 3 year span.

    Now there are all sorts of contextual details to explain these numbers but the reason I post them is that it raises a question for me.

    Elite goalies tend to get paid a lot of money. Price heads the list at $10.5 M and the 39th highest paid goalie makes $2.5 M (Khudobin).

    They aren’t the same 39 names but close enough for my point – and, of course, they don’t appear in the same order for Sv% and cap hit either.

    If you are a GM and you can sign a middle of the road goalie who can get you a .915 Sv% for 4 to 5 million per season does it make sense to draft the guy who is going to cost you $8M if he lives up to his draft potential in order to save those 12 goals or does it make more sense to go with the average guy and spend the extra 3-4M on a top six winger or dman?

    I don’t know the answer but I do think that this has to go into the thinking when GM’s are sitting on the draft floor mulling over their budget in their heads.

    And thanks again for the post. It made me think about the question you asked.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis: If they decide not to play, it will be a mess.The players will take it on the chin financially for some time (all of next year and beyond).If they want to be safe, announce the Hub cities ASAP and get these guys into a bubble.Phase two training in the US will only lead to more infections.Time to announce Toronto and Edmonton as the two hubs and get the show on the road.

    They need to have a fairly strict bubble for stage 3 – training camps – rink and home quarantine for the players (and hopefully even anyone they are in contact with – yes their families or they stay elsewhere during camp).

    Players should be very protective of themselves right now – not in two weeks when camp starts and not in 4 weeks when they head to the hub – right now.

    Phases 3 and 4 need to be essentially Covid free

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Wonder what the Euro players would vote if phase 3 moved directly into 2 Canadian hubs and they could skip entering the US right now

    I think they are all essentially back…….

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Does either or both cases (loan or the contract exit ) allow players that play a game in the Euro season to come over without waivers?

    I think its fine as the provision doesn’t apply to player on Loan or RFAs:

    13.23 In the event a professional or former professional Player plays in a league outside North
    America after the start of the NHL Regular Season, other than on Loan from his Club, he may
    thereafter play in the NHL during that Playing Season (including Playoffs) only if he has first
    either cleared or been obtained via Waivers. For the balance of the Playing Season, any such
    Player who has been obtained via Waivers may be Traded or Loaned only after again clearing
    Waivers or through Waiver claim. This section shall not apply to a Player on the Reserve List or
    Restricted Free Agent List of an NHL Club with whom the Player is signing an NHL SPC or is
    party to an existing SPC with such NHL Club.

  83. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Some solid stuff here from Matty:

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/ethan-bear-and-patrick-russell-join-edmonton-oilers-voluntary-skate

    – 10 Oilers are currently self-quarantining

    – The extras from Bakersfield for main camp will likely be goalie Stuart Skinner, defencemen Evan Bouchard, William Lagesson and forwards Tyler Benson, Markus Granlund, Ryan McLeod and Cooper Marody.

    – Add Broberg and Rodrigue to the above list

    ———————

    No real surprises at all.

    Some may be surprised to see Granlund given he’s been in Europe and already agreed to go to the KHL for next season.Good on him to agree to come back.

    Marody over Jurco (who is healthy now).

    It’ll be good for Coop to continue his healthy recovery.

    Marody is a bit of a surprise, great news that he’s healthy. And it’s really nice to see the team invite the future over the present tweener vets IMO (Marody, McLeod, Broberg, Rodrigue over Currie, Jurco, Gambardella).

  84. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Excellent post, as others have mentioned.

    As a bit of Devils’ Advocate, it seems to me that there are generally good-great goalies available pretty much every off-season either by free agency or trade without a massive acquisition cost.No, the elite one’s don’t come available but there are always solid options, or at least it seems that way.

    I wonder how many of the tier B starters in the league (or even the tier A) was drafted and developed by their current teams and how many were acquired (and at what cost).

    Yes, tier B goalies are pretty available and relatively easy to acquire (I’m not sure I’d agree with ‘good-great’, ‘without massive acquisition cost’). Then you’ve got guys like Bobrovsky getting $10M for his age 31-37 seasons… You’re certainly not getting much certainty for $3M and minimal assets out.

    Agree it would be interesting to see how many of the A/B starters were homegrown vs acquired from outside, and for what. The B guys I’m sure were often not homegrown.

  85. jp says:

    N64: Wonder what the Euro players would vote if phase 3 moved directly into 2 Canadian hubs and they could skip entering the US right now

    FWIW, cases in Sweden are virtually the same per capita as the US these days. (the rest of Europe very much lower though)

  86. N64 says:

    jp: FWIW, cases in Sweden are virtually the same per capita as the US these days. (the rest of Europe very much lower though)

    Don’t know about Sweden direction, but US South is just starting to go supernova. Next the fast growing younger segment seeds the older cohort and by 8/1 yikes.

    The road behind was rocky
    But now you’re feeling cocky
    You look at me and you see your past
    Is that the reason why you’re runnin’ so fast
    And she said
    Ain’t nothin’ gonna break-a my stride
    Nobody gonna slow me down, oh no
    I got to keep on moving

  87. jp says:

    defmn,

    Lots to think about there too.

    I don’t think a GM can avoid trying to find the best players at the draft though. I’d suggest there’s a similar pattern with forwards getting paid a lot more for a little more production. It could be a bigger discrepancy for goalies but I’d expect the phenomenon still occurs with forwards (and you don’t avoid drafting Kopitar at #11 because he might eventually get paid $10M for instance).

    The law of diminishing returns is definitely something to think about here though.

  88. jp says:

    N64: Don’t know about Sweden direction, but US South is just starting to go supernova. Next the fast growing younger segment seeds the older cohort and by 8/1 yikes.

    The road behind was rocky
    But now you’re feeling cocky
    You look at me and you see your past
    Is that the reason why you’re runnin’ so fast
    And she said
    Ain’t nothin’ gonna break-a my stride
    Nobody gonna slow me down, oh no
    I got to keep on moving

    Yeah, no question the trajectory in much of the US isn’t good (understatement). Just saying that things in Sweden aren’t so different and I’d be surprised if those players would have a particular issue setting foot in the US (cases in Sweden are still rising and their overall deaths per capita remain well ahead of the US, for the time being).

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like the NHL and NHLPA won’t announce the hub cities until everything is finalized – hub cities, protocols for stages 3 and 4 and the MOU for the extended CBA.

    Not sure if McKenzie meant they won’t announce until the agreement is finalized and voted on/approved or just finalized an put out to vote.

    The hope is for it to be issued for a vote by the end of the week but I think the voting takes a good 72 hours.

    Sounds like one vote on the whole package – not separate for RTP and CBA which makes sense given their linkage.

  90. N64 says:

    jp: Yeah, no question the trajectory in much of the US isn’t good (understatement). Just saying that things in Sweden aren’t so different and I’d be surprised if those players would have a particular issue setting foot in the US (cases in Sweden are still rising and their overall deaths per capita remain well ahead of the US, for the time being).

    Sure but if they’re being asked to report to some cities they might be asking more questions about phase 3.

    NHL to the side, that lag on death counts is a trap. Usually lags by half a month behind cases, but with the huge drop in avg. case ages the lag will be about a month
    to loop in the folks that do the dying.

  91. Ben says:

    As a rejoinder to JP,

    Current NHL starters / draft position:

    Gibson / 39
    Kuemper / 160
    Rask / 21
    Ullmark / 163
    Rittich / ND
    Mrazek / 141
    Crawford / 52
    Grubauer / 112
    Merzlikins / 76
    Bishop / 85
    Howard / 64
    Koskinen / 31
    Bobrovski / ND
    Quick / 72
    Dubnyk / 14
    Price / 5
    Rinne / 31
    Blackwood / 42
    Varlamov / 23
    Lundqvist / 205
    Anderson / 73
    Hart / 48
    Murray / 83
    Binnington / 88
    Jones / ND
    Vasilevskiy / 19
    Andersen / 87
    Markstrom / 31
    Fleury / 1
    Holtby / 93
    Hellebuyk / 130

    5 from the 1st round.
    7 from the 2nd round.
    8 from the 3rd round.
    1 from the 4th round.
    8 from the rest.
    3 not drafted.

    So about two-thirds of starters were top-90 picks.

    Small sample size (necessarily), but the draft is a lot better at picking goalies than I would have thought. Obvs didn’t look at the overall volume of goalies selected in each round either, but it *feels* reasonable to assume that more G go in rounds 2/3 than in the first, accounting for higher contribution to the starter list.

    Each G pick is a swing for the fences. A depth goalie probably doesn’t help you win, whereas depth F and D can give your roster quality minutes.

  92. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like the NHL and NHLPA won’t announce the hub cities until everything is finalized – hub cities, protocols for stages 3 and 4 and the MOU for the extended CBA.

    Not sure if McKenzie meant they won’t announce until the agreement is finalized and voted on/approved or just finalized an put out to vote.

    The hope is for it to be issued for a vote by the end of the week but I think the voting takes a good 72 hours.

    Sounds like one vote on the whole package – not separate for RTP and CBA which makes sense given their linkage.

    Doubt they keep cities under wrap during the vote. But it appears that city selection shelved completely during CBA push.

    Discussions can take interesting turns. We might look back at the report that Edmonton and Toronto were very close at the first head to head discussion and realize the closeness made it easier to shelve and increase the chance they adopt both when they circle back

  93. Side says:

    defmn: I think your own bias is showing.

    I was simply making the observation that there is a reason why expert opinion should not be taken as gospel.

    No more, no less.

    This goes back to a lot of discussions here where blame was ascribed to certain politicians – which is why I mentioned them – and I pointed out that having worked for politicians I know for a fact that they do not arrive at decisions without being advised by numerous experts on the subject under discussion but that the problem is that expert opinions are never unanimous. They are often coloured by those expert’s own political views.

    That was all.

    All the rest was you thinking you can read my mind and being a jerk about what you thought I meant.

    Sorry, I didn’t realize I had comments and discussions to read prior to yours.

    Because this comment you initially made seems to imply that politicians should not listen to experts. Seemingly at all.

    “Every time somebody mentions that politicians should listen to experts this should pop up on their screen”

    And then you changed it to “should not be taken as gospel”.

    I don’t think my bias is showing, I just think you went strolling down troll lane with your first comment.

  94. N64 says:

    Hearing out experts is going to beat ignoring them everytime.

    Even with great expertise sometimes it’s also about asking the right question.

    When this thing showed up on our shores they asked the experts if masks provide strong protection for wearers. Not proven they said. Which was a great answer for pols worried about hospital gear shortfalls.

    But the slightly different question many are asking now with perhaps 60% of spread being from currently symptomless is do masks protect people around the wearer? And the answer to that question leads to very different decisions.

  95. OilFire says:

    defmn,

    I don’t follow you. Seems like his quote displays the most logical conclusion for that immediate timeframe given the information known on that date.

    It would’ve been crazy to suggest everyone start panicking about it on Jan. 26th. when there was only 2 known cases in the US and China was hiding the high R factor (and pretending only 1k cases existed in the entire world). It looked very much like SARS or MERS with that fake data and hindsight shows the world was exactly right to monitor;y hotspots for SARS, MERS.

  96. OilFire says:

    As a side note, was on a conference call (well… conference Zoom) with an Ontario Public Health official tasked with COVID response on Sunday. He mentioned that he’d just gotten off a call with an ER doc in Arizona who said “WE’RE FUCKED HERE.” Wife is the physician not me, but that doesn’t seem great news for a Vegas hub to me.

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I wonder if any weighting to age or development or where a prospect plays this draft

    – If we assume no AHL, and no college Hockey, where are draft picks going to play next season?

    – A 18 year old that can’t play, get coaching, work on his skills: that’s basically a lost year vs KHL, or other places in Europe where draft picks can play.

    – Or you trade your picks this year because prospects aren’t going to develop and you load up the year after type thing. Or trade down and load up on over-agers, who are more fully formed, where lack of further developemnt isn’t a hindrance type thing

    – Wonder if teams think this way, or have strategies, or can factor in the importance of develpment

    Happy Canada Day tmrw: I couldn’t buy fireworks for our annual thing at cottage which sucks…

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – McKenzie tweeting that the $300M plus of signing bonuses due tomorrow are expected to be paid.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: What parties the no fun steal your pension and life savings virus is just getting started. I just feel sorry for the younger generation they’ll never see every lounge packed with folks during happy hour, live music free chicken wings and potato skins and the sweet smell of racy woman.

    When politicians are in the pockets of the banks…

  100. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow – McKenzie tweeting that the $300M plus of signing bonuses due tomorrow are expected to be paid.

    I wonder what escrow they are using? 20%? And if the 10% deferral is being added?

  101. defmn says:

    jp:
    defmn,

    Lots to think about there too.

    I don’t think a GM can avoid trying to find the best players at the draft though. I’d suggest there’s a similar pattern with forwards getting paid a lot more for a little more production. It could be a bigger discrepancy for goalies but I’d expect the phenomenon still occurs with forwards (and you don’t avoid drafting Kopitar at #11 because he might eventually get paid $10M for instance).

    The law of diminishing returns is definitely something to think about here though.

    Yup. I’m still mulling.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I wonder if any weighting to age or development or where a prospect plays this draft

    – If we assume no AHL, and no college Hockey, where are draft picks going to play next season?

    – A 18 year old that can’t play, get coaching, work on his skills: that’s basically a lost year vs KHL, or other places in Europe where draft picks can play.

    – Or you trade your picks this year because prospects aren’t going to develop and you load up the year after type thing.Or trade down and load up on over-agers, who are more fully formed, where lack of further developemnt isn’t a hindrance type thing

    – Wonder if teams think this way, or have strategies, or can factor in the importance of develpment

    Happy Canada Day tmrw: I couldn’t buy fireworks for our annual thing at cottage which sucks…

    This is a interesting point.

    I am absolutely concerned about where our prospects are going to play this fall – I do think the AHL starts up on a similar time line to the NHL (both will want/need fans) which I don’t anticipate until December/January.

    I have no idea about the CHL – all leagues are planning for October but all have stated they require fans and the WHL has stated they need all 6 jurisdictions beings able to play. I don’t know when that might be.

    I”m not sure if this will change any sort of drafting strategy but, ya, I guess it could – prime development time.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I wonder what escrow they are using? 20%?And if the 10% deferral is being added?

    I would have to think so, yes, even though those parameters haven’t been voted on and agreed to.

    Wild times.

  104. jp says:

    N64: Sure but if they’re being asked to report to some cities they might be asking more questions about phase 3.

    NHL to the side, that lag on death counts is a trap. Usually lags by half a month behind cases, but with the huge drop in avg. case ages the lag will be about a month
    to loop in the folks that do the dying.

    For sure, there will absolutely be an increase in American deaths due to the current spike. I agree and never suggested otherwise.

    My point was much narrower, that Sweden isn’t in much better a spot than the US, thus Swedish NHL players likely aren’t as scared of setting foot in the US as players from Canada/Finland/Russia might be.

    The US needs just shy of 45k more deaths to catch Sweden’s per capita number (35% more than they have now). And cases in Sweden are still rising as they are in the US, though not quite at the same rate. 1.1 per 1000 people per day have been diagnosed with Covid in Sweden over the past week. It’s 1.4 per 1000 people in the US in the past week. Neither country is looking great.

    But yes, I’m sure many players will prefer to resume play in a relative Covid sanctuary like Edmonton or Toronto.

  105. defmn says:

    Side: Sorry, I didn’t realize I had comments and discussions to read prior to yours.

    Because this comment you initially made seems to imply that politicians should not listen to experts. Seemingly at all.

    “Every time somebody mentions that politicians should listen to experts this should pop up on their screen”

    And then you changed it to “should not be taken as gospel”.

    I don’t think my bias is showing, I just think you went strolling down troll lane with your first comment.

    This conversation has been going on for months. I suppose that I could have written a long preamble reiterating my position that experts are always involved and consulted by politicians before making policy decisions but that that doesn’t always result in correct decisions because different experts have different perspectives and the questions are complicated which means it is highly unlikely that anybody is right all the time or that everybody will be happy even if it is gotten right.

    I suppose I could have done all that but I thought that the conversation had been going on long enough with a pretty small community posting here these days that I would just jump to one of many examples of how even experts can be wrong when facing unprecedented events. My bad.

    On the other hand you could have done me the courtesy of asking me the point of my post before jumping to outrage and snark.

  106. Jaxon says:

    Ben:
    As a rejoinder to JP,

    Current NHL starters / draft position:

    Gibson / 39
    Kuemper / 160
    Rask / 21
    Ullmark / 163
    Rittich / ND
    Mrazek / 141
    Crawford / 52
    Grubauer / 112
    Merzlikins / 76
    Bishop / 85
    Howard / 64
    Koskinen / 31
    Bobrovski / ND
    Quick / 72
    Dubnyk / 14
    Price / 5
    Rinne / 31
    Blackwood / 42
    Varlamov / 23
    Lundqvist / 205
    Anderson / 73
    Hart / 48
    Murray / 83
    Binnington / 88
    Jones / ND
    Vasilevskiy / 19
    Andersen / 87
    Markstrom / 31
    Fleury / 1
    Holtby / 93
    Hellebuyk / 130

    5 from the 1st round.
    7 from the 2nd round.
    8 from the 3rd round.
    1 from the 4th round.
    8 from the rest.
    3 not drafted.

    So about two-thirds of starters were top-90 picks.

    Small sample size (necessarily), but the draft is a lot better at picking goalies than I would have thought. Obvs didn’t look at the overall volume of goalies selected in each round either, but it *feels* reasonable to assume that more G go in rounds 2/3 than in the first, accounting for higher contribution to the starter list.

    Each G pick is a swing for the fences. A depth goalie probably doesn’t help you win, whereas depth F and D can give your roster quality minutes.

    When analyzing picks I’ve already moved to a 32 team model and I make that retroactive. For instance if someone was picked 31st before Vegas entered the league I would still count them as a first round pick. That would mean that 9 of the 31 starters are first round picks, and 14 of the 31 starters were picked in the top 64 ( first 2 round).

  107. N64 says:

    jp: The US needs just shy of 45k more deaths to catch Sweden’s per capita number (35% more than they have now). And cases in Sweden are still rising as they are in the US, though not quite at the same rate. 1.1 per 1000 people per day have been diagnosed with Covid in Sweden over the past week. It’s 1.4 per 1000 people in the US in the past week. Neither country is looking great.

    Hi,

    I would only compare last 2 weeks of cases as most before that are not active. Based only on the covid wikipedia pages for US and Sweden a quick check (hope the copying and math is correct) has opposite trends for the 2 countries. But definitely get your specific point that thought processes could be similar.

    Weekly new cases PER million
    USA Date SWE
    6,346 16-Jun 5,190
    609 last week 953
    6,955 23-Jun 6,143
    864 this week 634
    7,819 30-Jun 6,777

    Weekly new cases
    USA Date SWE
    2,100,402 16-Jun 52,423
    201,564 last week 9,626
    2,301,966 23-Jun 62,049
    286,051 this week 6,402
    2,588,017 30-Jun 68,451

  108. jp says:

    Ben:
    As a rejoinder to JP,

    Current NHL starters / draft position:

    Gibson / 39
    Kuemper / 160
    Rask / 21
    Ullmark / 163
    Rittich / ND
    Mrazek / 141
    Crawford / 52
    Grubauer / 112
    Merzlikins / 76
    Bishop / 85
    Howard / 64
    Koskinen / 31
    Bobrovski / ND
    Quick / 72
    Dubnyk / 14
    Price / 5
    Rinne / 31
    Blackwood / 42
    Varlamov / 23
    Lundqvist / 205
    Anderson / 73
    Hart / 48
    Murray / 83
    Binnington / 88
    Jones / ND
    Vasilevskiy / 19
    Andersen / 87
    Markstrom / 31
    Fleury / 1
    Holtby / 93
    Hellebuyk / 130

    5 from the 1st round.
    7 from the 2nd round.
    8 from the 3rd round.
    1 from the 4th round.
    8 from the rest.
    3 not drafted.

    So about two-thirds of starters were top-90 picks.

    Small sample size (necessarily), but the draft is a lot better at picking goalies than I would have thought. Obvs didn’t look at the overall volume of goalies selected in each round either, but it *feels* reasonable to assume that more G go in rounds 2/3 than in the first, accounting for higher contribution to the starter list.

    Each G pick is a swing for the fences. A depth goalie probably doesn’t help you win, whereas depth F and D can give your roster quality minutes.

    Jaxon: When analyzing picks I’ve already moved to a 32 team model and I make that retroactive. For instance if someone was picked 31st before Vegas entered the league I would still count them as a first round pick. That would mean that 9 of the 31 starters are first round picks, and 14 of the 31 starters were picked in the top 64 ( first 2 round).

    That’s good info. Thank you.

  109. Side says:

    defmn: This conversation has been going on for months. I suppose that I could have written a long preamble reiterating my position that experts are always involved and consulted by politicians before making policy decisions but that that doesn’t always result in correct decisions because different experts have different perspectives and the questions are complicated which means it is highly unlikely that anybody is right all the time or that everybody will be happy even if it is gotten right.

    I suppose I could have done all that but I thought that the conversation had been going on long enough with a pretty small community posting here these days that I would just jump to one of many examples of how even experts can be wrong when facing unprecedented events.My bad.

    On the other hand you could have done me the courtesy of asking me the point of my post before jumping to outrage and snark.

    Outrage and snark is what I do. Do you ask a scorpion to stop being a scorpion?!

    I get your point and what you are saying.

    I just think you chose the wrong twitter post, written by a moron and that moron was targetting someone he really shouldn’t be (Fauci), to make a point.

    There are very impressionable people on the internet, unfortunately. And there are people who read a tweet like the one you linked and they genuinely think not to trust experts and only believe politicians.

    And like I said, people on this site have had some questionable takes and cited questionable people as an authority figures on the COVID response so, I took it at face value.

    My bad.

  110. Material Elvis says:

    jp: FWIW, cases in Sweden are virtually the same per capita as the US these days. (the rest of Europe very much lower though)

    Poor Sweden. It used to be nothing but glam metal bands, bikini teams and IKEA factories. Now it has devolved into COVID run amok and street bombings.

  111. SwedishPoster says:

    jp: For sure, there will absolutely be an increase in American deaths due to the current spike. I agree and never suggested otherwise.

    My point was much narrower, that Sweden isn’t in much better a spot than the US, thus Swedish NHL players likely aren’t as scared of setting foot in the US as players from Canada/Finland/Russia might be.

    The US needs just shy of 45k more deaths to catch Sweden’s per capita number (35% more than they have now). And cases in Sweden are still rising as they are in the US, though not quite at the same rate. 1.1 per 1000 people per day have been diagnosed with Covid in Sweden over the past week. It’s 1.4 per 1000 people in the US in the past week. Neither country is looking great.

    But yes, I’m sure many players will prefer to resume play in a relative Covid sanctuary like Edmonton or Toronto.

    Numbers in Sweden are rising but actual cases aren’t and hasn’t for well over a month(or probably well over two months really). We’ve gone from pretty much only testing people admitted to hospitals to anyone who wants getting tested for free, symptoms or not. As for deaths we no longer have a higher than normal all cause mortality the last few weeks(which will be the only way to get a reasonably correct count in the end) . Things have been pretty tough, trust me I’m very well aware, but atm things are very much on the decline.

  112. JimmyV1965 says:

    N64:
    Hearing out experts is going to beat ignoring them everytime.

    Even with great expertise sometimes it’s also about asking the right question.

    When this thing showed up on our shores they asked the experts if masks provide strong protection for wearers. Not proven they said. Which was a great answer for pols worried about hospital gear shortfalls.

    But the slightly different question many areasking now with perhaps 60% of spread being from currently symptomless is do masks protect people around the wearer? And the answer to that question leads to very different decisions.

    I think the experts and governments flat out lied to us. It doesn’t take an expert to realize masks are a good thing. It’s common sense. But we were told masks were not only unnecessary, but could cause more harm because people tend to touch their face more. At the same time they told us not to buy masks so there would be more for health care workers. Once the supply of masks were secure, we were suddenly told to wear masks. They flat out lied. IMO it’s always wise to seek out differing expert opinions and judge for yourself.

  113. jp says:

    SwedishPoster: Numbers in Sweden are rising but actual cases aren’t and hasn’t for well over a month(or probably well over two months really). We’ve gone from pretty much only testing people admitted to hospitals to anyone who wants getting tested for free, symptoms or not. As for deaths we no longer have a higher than normal all cause mortality the last few weeks(which will be the only way to get a reasonably correct count in the end) . Things have been pretty tough, trust me I’m very well aware, but atm things are very much on the decline.

    Thanks for the context and very good to hear things are better rather than worse.

  114. N64 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think the experts and governments flat out lied to us. It doesn’t take an expert to realize masks are a good thing. It’s common sense.But we were told masks were not only unnecessary, but could cause more harm because people tend to touch their face more. At the same time they told us not to buy masks so there would be more for health care workers. Once the supply of masks were secure, we were suddenly told to wear masks.They flat out lied.IMO it’s always wise to seek out differing expert opinions and judge for yourself.

    It still can comes back to the right question. Catching and spreading are not necessarily symmetric.

    Am I personally protected from catching it if I wear a mask in a room where no one else does? That may actually depend on using it correctly and even then the effect may be weak especially with a cloth mask.

    But reverse the question and ask if I wear a mask significantly reduces my unknowingly spreading it? While touching it and then my eyes might be bad for me are others are still being protected from me?

    When they all believed the early China numbers about little non-smptomatic spread the questions focused on personal protection. But when solid numbers on non-symptomatic spread emerged the question shifted to how not to be a spreader.

    Not a fan of the early motivated reasoning to pooh pah masks to try to avoid a run on them. Simpler to remove them from retail. But zero tolerance for politicizing mask wearing. Glad to see the attempts this week in the US to remove partisanship from mask wearing.

  115. Genjutsu says:

    N64: ~ being the life of the party is so pre-covid ~

    What about catch covid parties?

    I think you just have to have it?

  116. oilersfan says:

    – if we don’t draft another goalie for a few years that’s fine with me

    – is there a way for all these teams in the south to have their training camp in canada? Are they all going to quarantine during training camp? Seems that is a big question not being discussed …

  117. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think the experts and governments flat out lied to us.

    Some stopped trusting experts and governments before any of this and got mocked.

  118. Todd Macallan says:

    https://www.tsn.ca/edmonton-and-toronto-set-to-be-nhl-hub-cities-1.1491108

    Sounds like good progress made not just on hub cities but return to play protocols and cba extension.

  119. N64 says:

    hunter1909: Some stopped trusting experts and governments before any of this and got mocked.

    ~You’ll always be right not trusting experts ~

  120. N64 says:

    Genjutsu: What about catch covid parties?

    yes I was referring to covid parties – the unintended ones that are driving most of the spread here the last month . .Lose the plot and the life of the party can go all Opposite George

  121. N64 says:

    oilersfan:
    – if we don’tdraft another goalie for a few years that’s fine with me

    – is there a way for all these teams in the south to have their training camp in canada? Are they all going to quarantine during training camp? Seems that is a big question not being discussed …

    That’s my big question too. Players currently outside Canada need 14 days quarantine bit that’s self isolation without an approved bubble. Wonder if any training camps will ask to enter any Canadian hubs in middle of phase 3? Or in other locations in Ontario or Alberta.?

  122. N64 says:

    SwedishPoster: Numbers in Sweden are rising but actual cases aren’t and hasn’t for well over a month(or probably well over two months really). We’ve gone from pretty much only testing people admitted to hospitals to anyone who wants getting tested for free, symptoms or not. As for deaths we no longer have a higher than normal all cause mortality the last few weeks(which will be the only way to get a reasonably correct count in the end) . Things have been pretty tough, trust me I’m very well aware, but atm things are very much on the decline.

    Thanks. How much has the test positivity rate dropped in june? In the US it dropped with increased testing but then spiked in the US South

  123. jp says:

    N64: Thanks. How much has the test positivity rate dropped in june? In the US it dropped with increased testing but then spikedin the US South

    Seems to be some info here.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=SWE~USA

  124. N64 says:

    jp: Seems to be some info here.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=SWE~USA

    Thanks. Very thorough

    Answers the question there is an inverse of positivity graph. it reflects the recent drop in test positivity rate in Sweden from increased testing and the recent increase in the us in spite of incr increased testing

  125. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Some stopped trusting experts and governments before any of this and got mocked.

    Mocking is the default position of the indoctrinated.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca