Peter Chiarelli used two of his first-round draft picks (2016 and 2017) on right wingers with resumes that included offensive prowess. It’s reasonable to expect both to be pushing three or four years later but only Kailer Yamamoto is certain to be a big part of Edmonton’s future. It’s a mighty long way down rock and roll.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- New Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- New Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
RIGHT WING 2019-20
There were 372 regular forwards (31 x 12 players) in 2019-20, basically any forward who played 400 or more minutes. First-line Right Wingers would land in the top 93 scorers (Yamamoto was No. 3, Kassian No. 59) while Archibald (No. 288), Chiasson (No. 344) and Russell (No. 364) were fourth line level.
I think the right side, although it lacks a Nuge, has more depth than the left wingers. Kassian can score with McDavid, Yamamoto is an impressive rookie and Archibald probably scores at a third-line level with a more offensive center. Chiasson didn’t score much but he had good possession numbers, a rarity for the bottom six:
Huh. Maybe Archibald needs more than a productive offensive center. I think you could come back next season with Kassian-Yamamoto-Chiasson-Archibald if Puljujarvi won’t sign and be a playoff team. I will say that a two-way right winger like Jakob Silfverberg might be a solution, but as it is cap issues (the aforementioned four have a cap hit of $7.75 million) may force Chiasson down the line. I don’t know if the Oilers can afford Silfverberg.
OPTIONS VOLUME 1
This is sorted by points-60 and some also play center and the scorers are mixed in with the two-way types. I like every player on this list, Connor Brown looks good here.
OPTIONS VOLUME 2
Colin Blackwell is a 27-year old righty center from Lawrence, Kansas, the town where Bill James invented all his wonderful math toys that built the sports analytics industry. Nashville will sign him, but if they don’t, he is a perfect fit for Edmonton’s third line.
I am also a fan of Warren Foegele and the rest of this crew, although they are not as prominent or popular as the first list. Some of the bias against these men is silly (if Craig Smith’s name was Jocelyn Grooveremont he’d be making more money) and some of it comes from playing on a poor team (Alex Iafollo). I’ll have an item up on centers over the weekend and then we can start to drill down on these names.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend in grand style! Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will join us to talk Bob McKenzie, that crazy boom camera and the SC playoffs so far. Matt Iwanyk drops by at 11 to talk Raptors, MLB, Oilers and SC playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Well part of the clamor was that Burakovsky was being shopped more than AA. And the QO situation ($3.25M) was also present with Burakovsky as it is with AA.
I was not among those hoping for Burakovsky at the time so maybe that bias is still there. I still do believe the general feelings (maybe not yours) on the trades are being strongly colored by the results since.
Also, sign RNH this offseason.
Ryan,
Also, in terms of scoring you’re using boxcars to compare a guy who played 10 minutes and change per game with no power play time vs a guy who played over 13 at evens and over two minutes on the power play.
I guess that it’s 20/20 hindsight in the sort of way that many posters here were clamoring for a Burakovsky trade before Sakic got him…. Meanwhile, no one here, to my recollection, proposed an AA trade before it happened.
In that way, calling it 20/20 is disingenuous.
I still don’t think it was a completely terrible trade at the time.
In fairness, Sakic paid a 2nd and a 3rd, not two 2nd round picks. AA was playing poorly… had the green jacket on and even without COVID-19, there was still the looming issue of the qualifying offer situation.
Also Burakovsky was younger when the Avs traded for him. He’s a first rounder from 2013 while AA is a 4rth from 2012.
Exactly.
+1
Loving the recent Silfverberg push, LT. One of my very favourite players in this league.
I think he may be one of those expensive things that help you out in so many ways that it becomes more than worth it when you add everything up. He could possibly be more valuable to this team than Taylor Hall would be (and Taylor Hall is great). What would it take to get him? I am not sure. Anaheim looks a little lost. Maybe they do something bold/possibly stupid very soon, and he becomes available for a smaller price than imaginable.
Here’s hoping.
For COVID 19?
Wiki has the threshold at hit at 50 to 83%
Where are you getting your numbers?
Shutout. By Talbot, of course.
Just one story in the bestselling tome A Thousand and One Cautionary Tales.by the Edmonton Oilers.
How does Seguin not score there?
Cursed them. 2-0 Flames.
Stars really deserve a goal in this game but no luck so far.
Seksy gonna be seein that one on repeat later tonight
Eventually having to go from Dallas to Calgary on a B2B is going to start catching up with these guys…
Honestly, I would sooner rely on one more year of Nurse-Russell than rely on one more year of Klefbom-Larsson.
Klefbom-Larsson in 1714:45mins from 2017-20:
FF%: 51.0
GF%: 39.4 (!!!)
SCF%: 48.9
HDCF%: 52.1
At some point, I think we need to accept that these two aren’t a fit together. Bad luck can only explain so much and injuries don’t strike me as enough given they’re still winning chance shares. Something they’re doing is just fundamentally wrong as it’s not impacting the other pairings. A change to that pairing is necessary.
I don’t know what each would bring in return, but I imagine Klef would garner more in a trade and I think he would also be easier to replace. There are a lot of Dmen in the league who can produce above a 39% goal share in a top-4 role and his place on the PP may not be far from being taken away.
Assuming we’re stuck with Russell, maybe a 1-year bandaid solution where we trade Klefbom for F help, sign a guy like Jon Merrill, and then balance out the minutes given to each pairing Nurse-Russell/Benning, Merrill-Bear, Jones-Larsson to avoid overburdening as much as possible. I have no idea if this would work, but I don’t think any of those pairings would be hard-pressed to best a 39% goal share- hard to know for certain, though.
Of course, trading Larsson is also an option but I don’t imagine he brings back more than a Johnsson or maybe a Jarnkrok (Fabbro showed some wobble so insulation might be of interest to Poile).
So apparently The Turtle is “unfit to play”.
Could’ve told the NHL this a long time ago.
Yes. We call this “whack-a-mole” around these parts.
And is Starting Goalie a legitimate need? Enough of one to play some risky whack-a-mole?
I can maybe get behind it if you have a plan for divesting Kokkinen and replacing Larsson’s elite minutes, but you don’t seem to have any such plan.
Dal and Cal underway, hope from here Cal does as well as Van this aft. If the slack ass Oilers need some fire under their butts for motivation, maybe their geographic rivals will provide them a dose of encouragement.
K. I’m trying to understand. In a hypothetical world, would you favour trading let’s say Larsson and some other asset for Domi? This has the same expansion draft implications as if we traded the 14OV. Or am I missing something here?
And again, in my original comment I said I had no idea if we could do the Domi trade as far as it relates to the cap.
Also that it’s not like when the Oilers needed elite players, an entire D corp and two goalies.
There are only a few pieces missing now. Poor Holland had his plans squahed by Covid I’m sure – a flat cap and lottery draft make a weak trade market worse.
Still, as the foundation of this stats blog instructs, there are value players that aren’t yet widely seen. Find them.
For me, I wonder if Mr McLeod has any idea how close he is to his wildest NHL dreams. If he could play two ways, win enough faceoffs, and finish enough of the chances he would get, hmmmmmm.
That size and speed, and that he’s a naturally responsible player, pay his cover charge.
The odds of getting a “high end skilled forward prospect” at #15 in the draft is less than 50%,
And even if an average hit, his impact on team success is likely 3-5 years away.
Holland should be looking for the next JT Miller.
Connor won’t wait forever.
I thought he had a girlfriend.
Chiasson contract expires after next year as well. And Neal will be bought out at some point. Lots of cap room available after next season.
I don’t see a lot of changes coming this off season. The cap just won’t allow it, and moving salary out seems harder to do than ever.
But we have to remember this team finished comfortably in a playoff spot with the current roster. Give this group another year of development and we should be at least as good next year.
Next summer Poulliot is off the books, Sekera’s buyout drops by a million, Russell’s contract expires, and so does Larrsons. There will definitely be some cap space available.
Main problem is that first trade is highly unrealistic in my opinion.
That asset package likely doesn’t get Andersson let alone Kerfoot or AJ with him.
Yup, one more year of really tight cap issues and then starting to see some relief – as long as Holland doesn’t make any more Kassian type mistakes and doesn’t buyout players out of panic for immediate need.
I think an upgrade as 1B goalie (even Casey DeSmith is an upgrade for me while cheaper, but potentially Khudobin or Griess or Dell) and Russell for a similar contract at center or wing is about as much as we can hope for for external improvements this off-season.
Incremental improvements plus internal (i.e Jones replacing Russell, Bouchard eventually replacing Benning, Benson replacing Ennis/AA).
No, I’m saying the GM should only trade high value expansion draft exempt assets for non-exempt assets with great diligence and with the expansion draft parameters in mind.
A trade of the 14th overall for Domi, not only is a massive $5M plus hit to the cap and the loss of a high end skilled forward prospect that is cost-controlled for a number of years but has signifigant expansion draft ramifications, as I’ve laid out. Its not a trade I would be in favor of and the expansion draft is one of a few reasons (which I laid out).
Quinn Hughes just showed why defenseman HAVE to be able to pass effectively.
And defend of course. He’s learning, rapidly, as high end players do.
The question is a tough one for Holland around the Oilers D. He has the luxury of a full squad of NHL quality. Some recent GMs didn’t, but that’s partly on them for not finding them or valuing the wrong abilities.
You have to me Klefbom, who is the most rounded, but has only played 2/3rds of the last 3 seasons. He also has not become a reliable defender. Which is partly why Nurse plays more toughs. I would say only because he’s tougher, more of a problem for other top lines.
You have Nurse, who has been healthy and looks like the prototype of an NHL D, but has defensive read issues and is not a good passer or decision maker. He’s getting points, but plays a lot with the best forwards.
You have Bear who is taking his chance and running away with it. Rounded player.
You have Russell who is a game rooster, versatile, too small and not fast enough to compensate like Hughes. Plays both sides, can’t pass, misses coverage, has trouble with breaking cycles, and does nothing with the puck when he skates it out. Nough said.
Benning who seems to run great stats, is a game rooster, similar to Bear. BUT has has a coconut that hasn’t had a nice time. He can pass, shoot and has crust.
Larsson gives his all. He puts up top stats for the group, outside of points. He’s an enigma because he can move the puck, can make plays but can’t or won’t or is coached not to. I mentioned several years ago I was worried he would develop chronic back problems because of how he plays. Poor technique. The only hard D stopper on the team.
No easy choices here. If as media says Larsson is widely valued, the GM has to take that seriously. There is risk both ways, trade or keep, because of the wildcard of a troubled back. That is not going away. Until he retires.
He is also a mentor of how to play your own end properly. Poor Ken.
Seriously these teams are so good. Love the Oil but not even close to the same level. It’s OK. Enjoy the show.
Quite the playoff coming out party for Bo.
Won’t players be taking a haircut for 1 year deals this year (and next), given the pandemic?
there is not a lot of money in the league to go around so how would a massive 1 year deal even be feasible? if they go long term, the value would be far less given this year factored into the equation as well
Seems most players would take a big haircut this year and next to score a bigger long term afterwards
God damn Horvat – great pass by Hughes.
Nice to see the Blues finally realize they are in a playoff series.
Blues with some sensational chances in OT – unlucky that the series isn’t tied right now.
How I would improve the Oilers in 3 moves:
1) Trade Larsson, Lagesson & Chiasson to Toronto for Andersson and Kerfoot or Johnson. Leafs get $2M in cap relief this year, a young talent and cap Flexibility in 2021-22. We get a 1a goalie and some forward depth
2) Trade Puljujarvi and Russell to Ottawa for the rights to Connor Brown
3) Sign Benning to a 1 year deal, and sign a Cody Ceci type FA for 1 year to buy time until cap space re- emerges
Brown. McDavid. Kassian
Nuge. Draisaitl. Yamamoto
Neal. Kerfoot. Archibald
Nygard. Haas. Russell/ cheap FA
Nurse. Ceci
Klefbom. Bear
Jones. Benning
Andersson
Koskinen
Isn’t this mostly hindsight being 20/20 though (Burakovsky being a good acquisition vs AA being a bad one?).
Similar acquisition cost. Similar age and salary. Similar historical production (the nod would go to AA on that one IMO).
The one Holland added was in the midst of a terrible year (goal differential mainly, and not trying to minimize it) but AA actually scored more than Burakovsky (76-12-13-25) prior to the trades.
Burakovsky worked out as well as could be hoped. AA still could but early returns are obviously not promising.
I have a really hard time faulting Holland on the move though.
Goal stands!
OT coming up.
Its waived off on the ice – it’ll be reviewed.
Its really really close.
Blues tied it up with under 6 seconds left.
May review
The issue isn’t how many good players are exposed but the value of the extra player being exposed.
As of right now, they could go 4-4-1 and expose forwards of the ilk of AA, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Benson.
Add Domi and he’s a must protect so, unless you want to not protect Domi, Yamamoto, Nuge, McDavid or Connor you are forced to going 7-3-1 and, if Jones develops as expected one of Jones, Klef, Nurse or Bear are exposed.
The value of the player lost is vastly increased in this scenario (or a trade of one of those 4 D is forced).
The Oilers’ cap situation being dire is news to you?
This is why its imperative that Holland needs to find a way to dispose of that Rusty contract without retaining – without that $4M there is no external upgrade. There may not even be enough cash to re-sign the incumbent skates (Benning, Bear, AA) and a goalie.
Either Rusty needs to be disposed of clean or he needs to be flipped for a similar contract at a position of needs – Sutter, Bjorkstad, etc.
Sheahan was over 64% of the dot in the playoffs – 34-20.
A 3C has been needed for years (except for the month that Strome played it) but faceoffs by the 3C in this year’s playoffs weren’t a main issue.
The OIlers cap stiuation is pretty hopeless. I had to buyout Neal, and walk away from Athanasiou, and about the only move I could make was underpay Granlund on a free agent offer.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1843857
The Oilers really need a Kris Russell for Derek Ryan or Brandon Sutter swap.
It is basically impossible to get Granlund with a Neal for Turris swap, even with Nashville retaining $1 million to make up for the extra year.
Godot likes to compare everything to asses. It’s his best frame of reference when speaking to people
I can’t imagine getting Khudobin, a legit 3C, a 1RW and Pieterangelo by divesting of Russell, Larson, not qualifying AA and buying out Neal.
Pieterangelo, especially on a short 3 year deal, would costs Drai money.
Leafs have a year to extend Larsson or, perhaps, the organization allows the Leafs to talk extension with Larsson prior to the deal.
Turris isn’t the player he was half a decade ago but he had a bounce-back year this year as compared to the prior season and had almost double the points of James Neal at evens and scored at 1.64 P/60 at evens.
Neal is an asset on the PK, however, if Chiasson is still on the team and Yamamoto is an option on PP1 as well.
That trade would be FAR from ideal but Turris is a serviceable 3C right now and the cap change, for the next 3 seasons is nominal.
I’d prefer Craig Smith out of Nashville, personally.
Jones should not be considered an option to replace a top 4 RD.
Not surprising, he is proving how much better he is on his natural left side – as most d-men are. There is a material difference between being able to play the off-side in the AHL and NHL – speed of decision making is, of course, the key.
Lets allow Jones to be successful and play him in the position that maximizes his skills and helps the team the most – the left side of the defence.
I’d be surprised if Gudas isn’t a Leaf next year but, yes, you list some decent options – can’t say if many are “better than Larsson” but, if the trade return for Larsson is high and the replacement is someone in line….
You’re driving me nuts here. So in your opinion the GM should restrict any asset acquisition to players that are worse than Jones?
I 100% agree.
If he is overpaid at his required QO of $2M, its marginal and I don’t agree with many that its the right place to look for cap savings. Not with a sophomore Bear and and inconsistent (and potentially degrading) Larsson as the only other NHL-proven right show D in the org.
Benning is about to reach that age where d-man really settle in and he should provide some good minutes for this team over the next number of years and will be great injury cover when Bear, Larsson (or replacement) and Bouch are the main 3RD – give or take a Berglund.
I was SO HAPPY when Kadri nixed the trade to Calgary.
Kadri would have been perfect for this team as I was stating at the time.