Connor McDavid’s decision to re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers at $12.5M AAV was a gift and a challenge. McDavid, who took a discount on his previous deal, doubled down on taking less money in an effort to help the team over the top. If the Oilers win a Stanley Cup in the next three seasons, McDavid should get some consideration from the Hockey Hall of Fame in the Builders category. I kid, he’ll get in as a player.
Where does that leave ownership? Most certainly grateful, this is a gesture beyond what any man or company could hope for from their franchise player. The deal comes with a shorter term, and that should give ownership pause. It is time for some solemn reflection, on the past, on the roster mistakes made, the wastage, and how to guide management in spending the newfound cap dollars. If I’m Daryl Katz, I stay out of management’s way. He hired them, management turnover always bites this team in the ass (St. Louis offer sheets) and there aren’t that many chances left to shoot the moon and bring back Stanley to the land of ice and snow.
What should Stan Bowman do? I can’t believe I’m saying this about an Oilers general manager not named Glen Sather, but he should stay the course. Bowman has done a fine job in procurement in his time with the team, and there are many signs he’s using all avenues availalble (including analytics) to guide this team to glory.
I’ve been especially impressed with the procurement work in Europe. Bowman helped the Chicago Blackhawks immeasurably with his Euro free-agent signings, and appears on the way to something similar with the Oilers.
From what I can tell, the Oilers procurement process involves Kalle Larsson (senior director of player development) and Tobias Salmelainen (European player acquisition and development) and Bowman. The impact of their work is already showing up on the Oilers roster (David Tomasek) and the Condors are going to have a full boat (Josh Samanski, Atro Leppanen, Viljami Marjala) in time for opening night.
I expect Bowman and Larsson are also responsible for the procurement of Damien Carfagna and Quinn Hutson, but there may be others involved.
Bottom line: The Oilers are in a good place this October, made ideal by McDavid’s incredible gesture that should gift the future Oilers teams an extra impact player. What an incredible, unprobable, turn.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll hear from Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic about how things went down and what it means for the future. It’s also roundtable day with Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson, Josh Fenwick and Sam Willness. It’s going to be two hours of chaos! Stay tuned! Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 radio and You Tube.
edit
Well McDavid has provided some interest in the next few years. Him signing a huge contract or leaving both produce a downward spiral – but instead – we have money to keep at the top. Defense is fine (have not said that in forever) but goal is still a vexing problem unless Skinner takes another step.
The only pending UFA that makes sense is Markstrom who may or may not be good this year and may or may not be available. If TBL is out of the running this spring and looking to rebuild – would they deal Vasilevsky – would he come? Probably unlikely but you can bet he’d like to beat FLA and he only has 2 years left on this contract after this year just like McDavid. Lots of interesting options thanks to McDavid.
Summarizing!
The German engineered three more points tonight, assisting twice before scoring at ES. Lewandowski was named 2nd star for his efforts.
Prospecting takes a break until Freitag.
So Barger drops a pop up allowing Judge to hit a 3 run homer to tie the game. Yikes….
Rough
No one sweeps the Yankees.
Only 4 times in 100+ years. Plus a series with a tie game.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Heading home from Winnipeg, where we did some feature work today
Hearing Jets and Kyle Connor have made progress on a long-term extension.
Team opens Thursday and everyone working to close it beforehand.
Expecting AAV will be in the 12s
Big for team and player to get it done
I know the Jets really have to re-sign their own guys….but $12M+ is crazy.
Even last year, if his on-ice shooting percentage is normalized, he finishes 14th instead of 7th in league scoring.
I thought Scheifele was an overpay at $8.5, now this.
But I guess the Peg gotta do what they gotta do, especially with American players.
Not sure what you’re going on about.
His shooting percentage last season was 15.4% the same as the previous season.
His career shooting percentage is 14.7%
He’s a perennial 30+ goal scorer and has hit 41 and 47.
12 is pretty much ion the same ballpark as Rantanen.
On-ice shooting percentage is different from individual shooting percentage.
For an accurate estimate of assists, you need to adjust it to career oiSH%, just as you would adjust goals to career SH%. That reduces his assists by 9.
Less than 10 minutes in, Lewandowski already has another multi-point game.
What does this mean?
Is the league watered down due to (a) some top players not yet arrived from late NHL team cuts and/or (b) movement to NCAA?
I suspect (b) more than (a), but it could also be chemistry with linemates Petr and Laing. Unsure whether he played with Laing before, but Petr was acquired in the off-season. He definitely seems to have taken a big step this season.
I say this with the caveat that I don’t actually watch these games.
Plenty of 2025 draft first round picks playing in the NHL to start the season.
Watching the NYR/PIT game and 18 year old Ben Kindel is taking a regular shift after being selected 11th by the Penguins.
Matthew Shaefer (Islanders)
Michael Misa (Sharks)
Brady Martin (Predators)
Braeden Coates (Canucks)
..have all made NHL rosters for now.
The league continues to get younger.
Worth noting…Arturs Silovs is pitching a shutout in the 3rd period against the Rangers.
Silovs with a 25 save shutout.
That would have been one of the routes to try this season, even if it required letting the Canucks move him first.
The Canucks moved on from him when they acquired Lankinen.
I’m pretty sure the Oilers could have grabbed him for a late round pick.
I highly doubt this. The Oilers likely have to pay a premium to take the promising young goaltender from a divisional rival after a well reported and excellent (AHL) playoff run.
Speaking of which, that playoff run is about the only thing in his recent track record indicating he is developing into a starter. His numbers aren’t exactly stellar outside of that run, which was in the AHL, no less.
I wouldn’t have opposed the bet, pending acquisition cost, but to act like this was a sure fire upgrade on Skinner or even Pickard is disingenuous at best. But I’m sure you know that.
The Canucks traded Podkholzin to the Oilers for a 4th round pick…no premium.
Who suggested he was a sure fire upgrade?
I didn’t.
Well, Lawson Crouse also played a full NHL season at age 18. Didn’t exactly prefigure stardom. 18 points last year.
Per Friedman, the Canes were tendering an offer sheet to Bouchard for 1 year at greater than the AAV McDavid just got (i.e. over $12.5MM) – that would also provide a QO at that number (and he’d still have arb rights).
Wow. Good info thanks. Interesting
Everybody wants to pilfer once we get good!
Maybe good the Offer doesn’t come in after one of Bouchards famous flubs. Fans would be buying him a ticket! Kidding of course. But I do expect some contract criticism after those gaffs
Vladdy with a 2 run homer! Jays up 2-0 bottom of the 1 st.
Unreal. Been a while since I whooped at the TV watching baseball.
Yep! Yankees roughing up Bieber though.
Only due to that IKF error – of note….. the 2nd inning!
Liking the 6-1 lead now!!
Blue Jays’ small ball is chef’s kiss.
Yesveyev ranked the 9th best U23 player in the KHL in September.
Berezkin next summer and Yesveyev the year after? That would be nice but we’ll see.
Oilers recent history with Russians has been pretty bad. Hopefully Podz starts to change that.
Anatoli Semenov scored a crucial playoff Goal against the Flames.
Yea and the Berlin wall was still in place!!
Yakapov needed a teacher not a hard ass like Eakins.
Yea hard to know if Yak would have turned out with different coaching??? Eakins truly was an ass and not ready to coach in the NHL. Bad hiring decision.
What’s most galling to me is they seemed to have found that mentor in Derek Roy, only to let him go.
Was he a Mentor or did Roy Frankenbrain Yak?
Move there, stand there, wait for the pass send it to the other winger….
I liked the player a lot, but he wasn’t able to process the fast play at real time speeds. scouts would say no hockey sense.
In my experience the more micromanaging the coach dictates over the player the more they turn their brain off.
Given his personal context, I think we should keep our expectations low for Podz this year.
I’m feeling the “music”…so aside from Rush fans giddy about the new drummer, Anika Nilles is a mofo. The ads make me nuts, but…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lowk0E2_dAM&list=RDEMhuQUZS7AAOlZWIEflh7EOA&start_radio=1
You, sir, have made my day with this news.
Hoping this wakes up the Tragically Hip.
You’d think they’d start game one with the right goalie one of these years…but here we are again…
Here YOU go again.. blaming Stu before a minute has even been played.
I just want them to play their #1 goalie.
Sir. Welcome to the Skinner show. Sit down and enjoy.
How soon before Ingram up and running? I feel bad for Pickard who’s going to lose his job through no fault of his own.
Putting aside liking the person, Pick’s numbers are as bad really. They won games but it wasn’t him stealing games. Small sample size. If Ingram can find his game given ages you keep Stu and his next contract reflects not that the team did what it did, but what he did
If they’re dumb enough to replace the wrong goalie, he’ll catch on elsewhere. Guys who can do what he does have a place in the league somewhere at all times.
Yes, Pickard has always had a place in the league, except for the various seasons where he didn’t and was in the AHL, right?
Per Ryan Holt:
Oh, man, am I excited for this team.
My initial thought is I want Jarventie up on the “2nd line” but, with that said, Hamblin is a good offensive player in that league.
Nothing Akey injured, sigh.
Unfortunately, this game is at the exact same time as the Oilers game, sigh.
This is the home opener in San Jose?
Its game one, in SJ.
I just realized that its an afternoon game – lovely (my wife disagrees).
Do you mind giving your comprehensive updates as I’m not the only one that enjoys and appreciates hearing about the Baby Oilers game details in the moment.
Sure but I’m not sure everyone loves 14 straight posts from me with random play description from late night Condors’ game…….
Ha ha no issue with me! Enjoy hearing how Condors are playing.
Please do.
I’m in.
Me too
My preference is to run the kids so they aren’t kids by the time playoffs hits but they go big game hunting once it’s time to get serious and push those kids down the lineup. No egos in playoffs.
With what assets is a great question.
I’d love Kempe if LA blew it and get him re-signed before July 1 but thats unlikely.
Pastrnak apparently has some knee arthritis so that’s not getting any better.
Kyle Connor would be ideal if he wants to trade one tundra for another.
Jason Robertson is allegedly on the block.
There will be no shortage of names to check in on. They were in on Rantanen but didn’t have the assets, so those saying those names would be insane, you never know.
The predatory offer sheets are almost impossible over the next few years. Offer sheet Holloway back.
3 straight 100+ point seasons, 4 straight 40+ goal seasons. Doesn’t appear that any rumored anything is affecting Pastrnak negatively.
Chiclets guys are saying he’s dealing with knee arthritis. They don’t know anything but are pretty dialed in with the Bruins/Boston kids and do have some connections
The fact he’s doing this in spite of it is insane but not good for longevity.
Pasta is too old for the program. Stan needs to find the guy who’s 23-24. A Mark Stone type deal. Otherwise back to what Holland did, a few good years and fizzle
Marek, who I generally think is bit of a blowhard, had some interesting stuff when it came to the negotiation. We had heard 3 years was the preference and what most were reporting, but he was allegedly talked down from it down to 2.
Moldaver has Matthews, Werenski, 97, all coming due the same year.
Tidy business for Wasserman if its 3 stars all are UFA’s when the cap is unknown but on a sharp trajectory up. Agent’s have a level of self interest too.
McDavid believes this team can win in the next three years
He desperately wants to win with these guys (his friends) who he’s played with for years and also for the new guys but especially the core that’s been around for a while and gone through some tough times. For them to win together would be….just amazing, the culmination of the story/journey, the mountain climbed, the war won, together.
He also said that it gives management a few years to “build something” and talked about the importance of young players and how it’s no secret the team has traded away prospects and draft picks.
We’ll see where we are after another two seasons (when he can re-sign if he chooses to). If he thinks he can (continue to) win here I would think that he would be inclined to re-sign and has the option of taking a lot more $$. Or not.
Also with the cap going up, maybe we can sign a good youngish free agent that contributes a lot.
There is also every possibility that, more than anything else, the term was tied almost solely to being able to keep the AAV down for to help in the next few years and nothing to do with wanting to re-evaluate in 2 years.
Am I the only one who did not know that Carolina was ready to offer sheet Bouch? Big news, and makes me more OK with his contract.
Friedman:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-mcdavid-giving-oilers-every-chance-to-win-stanley-cup/
Knew it, that’s why it was a 4 year deal allegedly, and bumped to 10.5. Panic move.
Considering what Hughes, Dobson, and Lacombe signed for, Bouchard’s contract is not unreasonable if one ignores October’s, and then blinks at the right time for the rest of the season.
Once Makar and Q. Hughes get new contracts Bouchard’s will be peanuts.
Bouchard’s contract was reasonable on the date it was signed and looks better before he even plays a minute of it.
Here is hoping he starts the season on time, not his MO to this point.
It’s a great contract. I wanted 8×8 after his season with Keith. It is alleged 10×8 was on the table until the Hurricane rumours.
I keep thinking: this allows Edmonton to add an extra 8 million dollar player, when in reality, by the virtue of McDavid leadership magic, what it ought to mean is two 8 million dollar players at half price, each looking to become key figures in a legendary narrative.
Walman and Hyman injured, those are two big pieces out of the lineup.
We didn’t have Walman to start last year though, so that’s one way to look at it.
In the reg season if they play their system and play together it shouldn’t mean that much. One forward and the rest of the D are vets except Emberson and Regula who doesn’t have to play if need be. Would be a big blow in playoffs
I really like this deal because 1) SB did a really good job of retrofitting this team over last 12 months for this years run and he will even have a little cap pace come trade deadline 2) with the cap increase and Conners gift SB will have the room to retro this team for a potential longer SCF window. I bet Conner thought that one thru and is giving Mgmt the room to succeed in achieving that goal before they talk renewal again….. OR ….Mgmt can hang themselves by doing more Holland/ Chiarelli type deals next summer .
Personal opinion is that SB will achieve the transition over the next couple of years to Conners satisfaction.
Samuel Jonsson assigned to ECHL. Day stays in AHL on merit. He was exceptional in two half games.
Grubbe, Stonehouse and Stefan also assigned to ECHL. The last two were never real prospects and Grubbe is pretty much there.
This is how the NHL article (Derek Van Diest) titled “McDavid puts Oilers on notice with 2-year, $25 million contract“ introduces the signing, and it is the prevailing narrative surrounding the contract:
“EDMONTON — Connor McDavid put to rest any questions regarding his commitment to winning the Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
The 28-year-old center also put the Oilers on notice in the process”
…. And it makes no sense. It’s two contradictory sentiments.
Our captain has faced immense pressure to leave Edmonton. And now that he hasn’t, that subtext is about to rise to the surface. This franchise and city need to prepare for information warfare now that the superstar has bucked conventions.
Clickbait. They have to do it to keep a job, incite the Laughs fans, their biggest market
To be fair to DVD:
The author of the article rarely writes the headlines. In the old days of “printing” news on “paper” headline writing typically fell to the Copy Editor. Once the article’s column inches / placement had been determined providing a rough character count then the headline was written — even then, something catchy was the rule of the day.
With digital news things have only gotten worse as headlines will often only by the thinnest of threads reflect the actual article. So something spectacular, and will grab the attention of a fan of any team is the goal.
Kinda crazy to me that authors have article titles attached to them that they never even authored.
I was once employed by the Edmonton Sun to write headlines.
Had a blast.
Your like Rodney Dangerfield around here. “No Respect”
The Edmonton Sun was like the Wild West in the early days.
David Bailey and the gang were a real treat.
I still remember the 1st Sunday Sun and how excited I was to view it especially the extended sports and entertainment sections.
Putting it together was a lot of fun…although the hangovers were legendary.
With Mangiapane-Frederic-Savoie-Howard-Philip-Kap I think our forecheck improves enough that we see a spike in goals. Last year I thought we had the best forward group since the mid-eighties but it never materialized in the regular season. This new group will add some fresh blood to the core who may recieve a bump to begin the long grind after 2 short off-seasons.
As recently as 2022 the Oilers’ bottom-6 was effectively two 4th lines.
You could make the argument that over the past 18 months our bottom-6 is now two 3rd lines.
Well, I would say “was now two 3rd lines.” Especially in the playoffs, with Kane and Frederic added.
We’ve lost a lot of depth: Kane, Perry, Brown, Arvidsson. All four of those guys scored at a 40-point pace in the playoffs. Perry scored at a 40-goal pace in the playoffs.
We only got Mangiapane as a replacement. Expecting Savoie and Howard to pick up the slack is unpredictable. Frederic might bring something, but he only scored 15 points last year.
I think we have done well, considering that we had to pay Drai and Bouch. But I’m not as bullish on our forward depth as some.
Bowman is like Sather bringing new personal every year. The Oilers will play faster this year drawing way more penalties with more Goals. Boook it……….
Last year there was talent, but not a good mix. Kane was out, and a lot of pretty mild mannered forwards. Those guys get owned too often, it’s the NHL. This group has more legs, and mojo overall, I think
Being fighting tough doesn’t matter, doesn’t come into play often in playoffs. It’s about being assertive. Unless you are going to directly counter the Panthers (bad idea, what the Flames tried in the 80’s), how you play teams like that is fast players that always battle (and can win battles). ‘Eventually’ they will draw penalties and don’t get intimidated
They got beat to too many pucks last finals, and were late in coverage. Too old and not quick
Speed and agrressive forecheck draws more penalties as the opposition makes more mistakes with infraction results.
Yuppers
RE McDavid contract duration – probably been said 1000 times but for me the duration is a direct result of a rising cap. Going short term results in lower incremental cap hits (I.e. if he signs 4 x 2 year contracts the AAV has a lower incremental cap hit the first two contracts and higher in the second two as compared against 1 x 8 year contract).
I remember the Bruins in 1977 I think it was Saskatchewan boy Bob Miller who was the Eleventh player on the team to register 20 goals. Bruce would know what the record for us is I would say 9 at the most. The reason I’m bringing this up is I believe we see 7-8 players register at least 20 goals for us this Olympic year.
97, 29, 18, 93, 2 (88, 22…53?)… what’s the path to 8?
Yes Sir. This McDavid signing must give his teammates a real bump. It’s a Olympic year so it’ll be condensed schedule which leads to more injuries as well as more Goals, As long as K.K doesn’t Coach the offence out of Savoie-Tomasek-Howard these 3 will surprise.
My gut feeling is that if both Howard and Savoie get to 20, one of them (Howard) will have had significant PP1 time.
I don’t think that they have the centre depth to do that. Nuge, if they use him at C, might hold his own, but doesn’t drive play, totally complimentary. Henri is too old now, Frederic also not a play driver. They don’t have a good two way (can also drive scoring) 3C unless we get surprised
For me another better than average centre and a better goalie are top of the list. Wingers need quality centres to do their thing. No Kucherovs I see sitting on the bench
Any news on the Walman injury? He’s only surprisingly played 267 regular season games with the Playoffs he’s still under 300 games played. Hopefully the 2nd half of his career brings better health.
Coach confirms Howard is playing tomorrow – with Henrique and Tomasek (Lazar out it seems, as it should).
What about Philp?
Philp is playing with Podz and Kap.
Paying 3 million for a 4th liner is putrid, especially when some say paying half that price for a 4th liner is awful and mismanagement.
Henrique better have himself one hell of an October and beyond.
So its confirmed you’ve moved from Foegele on to Henrique.
He’s not wrong on either front
Really? The VERY strong position that Foegele only scored because of Drai doesn’t seem “not wrong” given he scored 22 5 on 5 goals playing for LA last season…..
Foegele was terrible for the Oilers in playoffs. I’m glad he had a good season for LA, but that is moot for the Oilers. He couldn’t do it for them. Curlock wrote lots on his poor overall play when in blue and orange
I mean, don’t you think there are players on every team who are making more than they would be if the contract was renegotiated? Can we actually call each one of these cases “mismanagement”. Or is there a reality that exists where “management” involves taking educated risks, navigating ever changing landscapes and sometimes paying a little more than you would have liked to a player. (Which is probably almost every new contract?).
Who would that be on Florida?
Pretty sure if he went down on waivers, he’s getting claimed.
I never understood the narrative that McDavid was out if we don’t win this year. For one thing, I think most competetive players want to build a winner more than just show up on one. For another, there aren’t really any teams that can afford to pay the trade value or free agent contract McDavid would command that would be more competitive than a back to back finals appearance.
McDavid is not putting the team on notice.
Hes not asking “what can you do for me?”
Hes saying “what can I do for this team?”
This is a leader.
I think it can be both putting the team on notice and doing what he can to help.
Another interpretation that hasn’t been mentioned much. If taking a team-friendly salary helps the Oilers, perhaps this means McDavid will be willing to take an even lower salary in the next negotiation, if he believes it could help the team more. Set a lower-salary standard for the team to ensure the people who choose to come to the Oilers have winning as a priority rather than cashing-in.
McDavid is acting in his own self-interest, just like Kaprisov did. (There is nothing wrong with acting in one’s own best interest, directly or indirectly.) And in this case, McDavid’s self-interest is also in the best interests of the Oilers, his teammates, and the fans, but not in the best interests of the NHLPA, but McDavid took note of the NHLPA by not impacting the Kaprisov negotiation.
Kaprisov’s legacy does not depend on how many Stanley Cups he wins. McDavid’s legacy does, since he is amongst the best players of all time, and the number of Stanley Cups won impacts his standing amongst the best of the best.
The criteria for McDavid in evaluating his self-interest is different from every other player not amongst the best of all time.
Very well said!
He is essentially following the Crosby template with the proviso that the Oilers need to win the cup this season or next.
For some reason, sanity maybe, I read any of your comments hearing the voice of the teacher in the Peanuts cartoon. It definitely helps.
I get a Walter Brennan vibe from you.
I get a sad, mentally vulnerable, & easily confused vibe from you!
Yeah or an insufferable coffee aficionado!
I love Walter Brennan. You, not so much.
Incorrect.
You are devaluing his contribution.
Everything you allude to is secondary.
This is about how I thought McDavid’s contract negotiations would go. I had a little worry he’d ask for the moon but not much.
Can’t say I told you so, because I didn’t. But I was getting tired of the idiotic TORONTO media narrative. That town is such a burden on this country.
I may be an optimist but I don’t think McDavid signing two years = “putting the team on notice” or “we better win or I’m out in 3 years” etc.
I think the simplest explanation is that McDavid REALLY wants to win and, as of right now, he is only willing to sacrifice an extra two years at 50% discount on his contract to win. In two years, he will be able to evaluate how much money he wants to take and how long versus how much he needs to win
This. I think he’s a really thoughtful person, and in two years will go through a similar exercise of soul searching and evaluation (or whatever he was thinking about last couple months) and decide what his next move is. And it may or may not be perfectly tied to whether he wins in the next 2 years.
Gregor with some good intel: They can’t send Hamblin down until 3 eastern so don’t have another roster spot to call Howard up until then.
I presume they will make that switch this afternoon.
He’s got 10 games I hope to see at least 3 goals from the Iceman.
10 games for what? or what?
If he doesn’t have multiple Goals after 10 games then it’s off to the AHL. If he’s the real deal he will show early I do not take Hobey Baker winners lightly even though there’s the odd dud that wins it. The kid has a cannon if he’s a fast learner he’s going to light it up.
I think it involves management, the scouting staff a firing squad sans blindfolds and last cigarettes, tar, feathering and perhaps getting drawn and quartered for good measure.
I keep getting the service unavailable message this morning. Anyone else have trouble accessing site?
Yes happens quite often for me maybe I just can’t take a hint.
Couldn’t be more impressed with our capitán. What an exemplary athlete. One of the better days for our organization.
On another note, would Blumel have been an improvement on the wing?
?? Not sure Blumel has proven himself as an NHL player or better than current Oiler wingers. Great AHL player for sure.
Dallas waived Blumel and signed Adam Erne off a PTO…….
Wonder what a certain someone thinks of this!!
Oilers have placed Hyman on LTIR and recalled Tomasek.
Of note, they have NOT re-called Howard and, currently, Hamblin remains as the extra forward and Howard in the AHL.
Interesting.
I’m not totally against that but I hope it doesn’t last long and Howard forces his way back up (if this is how they start the season).
Gregor just tweeted the lines and said Howard not on the ice bc he technically can’t be recalled until 3pm.
I think Tomasek is going to be sneaky good out of the gate. Nobody has a book on him yet.
Per Tony B:
I would say that Howard isn’t there because technically he’s been assigned to Bako but, well, so has Tomasek.
I am very hopeful that Lazar is NOT in the lineup tomorrow…..
Maybe Lazar is just a better fourth liner & Howard could use some seasoning in Bakersfield.
The marinating days are over. Bowman unlike Holland gives opportunities to younger players. If you want to see teams marinate view L.A that has the oldest team in the league and that’s not by mistake. I heard Bernie Nicholls may get a contract from Holland.
With the season kicking off today..we’re seeing projections for playoff standings.
Dom at the Athletic
Pacific Division
EDM 108.5
VGK 104.0
LAK 93.5
Central Division
COL 105
DAL 103.1
WPG 99.7
WC
MIN 93.1
STL 91.8
EDM wins the Presidents Trophy
DOM has EDM and TBL meeting the Stanley Cup final with TBL favoured at 9.0% and EDM at 6.6%
Moneypuck
Pacific Division
VGK 110
LAK 105
EDM 101
Central Division
WPG 116
DAL 106
COL 102
WC
MIN 97
STL 96
WPG repeats as President’s Trophy winner.
Moneypuck has EDM and FLA meeting in the cup final with FLA winning again.
https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
https://x.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1975563221529747919
The 2025-26 NHL Season is here!
Here are Western Conference standings points projections from betting odds, fans, and eight analytical models:
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1975583664462246299
The 2025-26 NHL Season is here!
Here are Eastern Conference standings points projections from betting odds, fans, and eight analytical models:
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1975582700841869811
So Moneypuck predicts the exact same thing that happened last year, bold, refreshing, game-changing analysis.
That site uses Mad Minute math in an Advanced Statistics world.
The Athletic staff also weighing in.
Win the Cup:
DAL 28.6%
VGK 22.9%
EDM 17.1%
TBL 11.4%
COL 8.6%
CAR 8.6%
TML 2.9%
No love for FLA.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6690057/2025/10/07/nhl-predictions-stanley-cup-stars-connor-mcdavid/
I’m preparing my disappointment for the cap savings from McDavid’s contract being blown to overpay some old or poor player.
Oiler me once, shame on them, Oiler me twice, shame on me……..Oiler me three hundred and twenty seven times, shame on me.
Maybe you could just consider it already spent on Walman.
Holland is gone and doing his thing to LA, which is awesome. Bowman has been doing the opposite
Do we have to rag on Holland, maybe not the best GM but he made some good moves and toiled rummaging through the bargain bin and solved problems to get us to the finals.
I have always said that Holland was a steady hand on the rudder, after many years of turbulent waters.
Holland did a nice job and was compensated well for it. Bottom line is he would still be here with his Kid if he had made a couple of better moves.
I don’t believe Holland was ever in consideration after his contract expired.
I believe he was setting it up his Son to take over. I wish Keith Gretzky would of been given a opportunity he’s poured his heart and soul into this organization but the younger crowd that missed out on the greatest team ever would not allow this.
As he shouldn’t have been. You have two of the world’s best players in prime and a stud offensive D, and couldn’t solve the easy part. He also didn’t operate under the cap well, kept using it as an excuse. When Staios left he said soon after the cap isn’t a problem, Bowman has as well
As I mentioned elsewhere, other teams set up like that won multiple Cups in the cap era, and I don’t even count the Panthers as they have one world class player. Good team but it’s a group effort for them
I don’t think the two-year term changes a single thing for management (or ownership).
I believe the owner has always been committed to giving his manager the resources to do what is needed to win.
Is there any doubt that all of Bowman’s moves transactions (and non-transactions) have been made with a primary view to trying to win a Stanley Cup in the here an now? None of that should change in any respect, right?
Bowman knows that he will likely continue trading draft picks and has done yeoman’s work bringing in European and college free agents that “have a chance to play” and help this team in the next few years – all of Samanski, Hutson, Leppanen (and even Marjala and Carfagna) have a chance (in additition to Tomaske).
That’s a draft class of players, already developed, that he brough in. Maybe none make it, maybe one or two are medium impact players
I don’t fully agree. Or I partially agree.
GMs are always looking at the here and now but with one eye on the future. I feel this forces Bowman to pull the trigger on an elite goalie and a top 6 winger this deadline/summer.
Much different than an eight year window IMO.
— the owners NPV on his investment with 2 more years is a big change though
— Jaxon made a great point yesterday : the GM has opportunities to look smarter in a rising cap world and a “free” 5-8 mm player with McD @$12.5mm…
It certainly make life easier for the entire organization moving forward with their goals in mind.
I suppose it could be true, but I see no evidence that this 2×12.5 is necessarily 97 putting the team in a corner.
This explanation is just as likely to be copium out of Toronto, a media base which still cannot compute that anyone would choose to live in Edmonton. This, lets be clear, is the primary motivation for their hatred of the Oilers: a self-loathing related to their own mediocrity as a city and an organization. Toronto is a place with all the components of a global city but is completely hamstrung by its ineffectiveness in putting those parts together into a greater whole. Just like the team. So the entire culture is for losers. (Unlike in Florida, where the entire political geography and culture is for cheaters.)
2×12.5 is also just that. And there is no reason McDavid can’t sign this deal again until they do win a cup. He may as well bet on it in short-term increments, giving himself and his legacy the flexibility it needs. If anything, there’s an argument to be made that the chances of 97 re-signing again increase after this contract, because he’s sunk so much of his legacy into this one event: Edmonton Winning the Stanley Cup. the only way it would make sense, again, for him to leave in a couple years is if there’s another team even better positioned to win. How likely is that now?
Because it is highly unlikely the Oilers are positioned worse in three years time than they are now, and now they are already odds-on favourites.
Anyway, just some observations after forcing myself to listen to Nick Kyprios et al.s’ brain dead takes on this matter.
I think people underestimate how loyal drafted players are to that team. It’s their NHL identity. If they are traded, after the shock they are more business oriented, more like a mercenary. Sid should have left Pitts long ago if he wanted to win more Cups, but it’s not an easy thing. Pitts should have sold Malkin and Letang if they were serious about staying competitive. Marchand said he was surprised to be moved, they get over it of course
I think with McDavid this is true but also can be qualified around two other deeply important historical convergences: 1) not making the mistake Gretzky made and 2) bringing the cup back to Canada. These are two mountains unto themselves that others, including Crosby, weren’t born into. I keep saying it: if Edmonton wins and brings it home (Edmonton / Canada) it will be a more important cup than any, possibly ever. I think McDavid also knows this and knows the reward and legacy is that much more tempting in Edmonton.
Yes, except Gretzky didn’t make a mistake. He was sold, had brought 4 Cups to Canada. He made his choices in a different scenario
If Connor can bring a Cup (or two) home it would be a thing of all time NHL legend. It would be the greatest thing to his legacy that would not be the same elsewhere. Although I don’t think he thinks about his legacy, beyond wanting to win championships
If he brings home a Gold Medal with a Stanley Cup he vaults into arguably the top 5 all-time and still has 8 years to climb the ladder.
Agreed, to me that makes him four behind only 99, 66, and 4. He might get there anyway. But your scenario, it could be argued, may be the single greatest season all time.
Hockey players are a different breed then most sports. They seem to be a very humble universal group.
“Unlike in Florida, where the entire political geography… is for cheaters”
Huh? Get this shit outta here, weirdo.
Does leaving $15M on the table, even though you’ve made over a hundred mil in the last ten years and will probably make 100 mil more in the near future matter? I don’t understand greed (not 97) but guys like Vladdy, Krill,
That’s why Tom Brady was so successful.
.
There is some speculation that the cap will go up even more than announced for next season. Like a potential extra $3MM.
He’s likely $11MM but…… Kempe.
I like that idea
Does Draisaitl twist some nips and push the Oilers to go for his best buddy not an Oiler, Pastranak?
Friedman thinks the next focus is an Ekholm extension. Thinks he really wants to re-sign. Says he is getting mixed messages as some say it will be short term and others say it may be modelled off of Tanev to spread out and lower the cap hit.
I hope they wait a few months.
I really hope they wait as well. Ekholm from last year was not helping the team win. He starts again on first pairing based on previous years evidence (excepting last season). Time will tell if that is the correct placement. Team needs to know conclusively before they extend. They have depth on d from Bowman searching high and low. Can’t afford to lose young cheaper replacements as the old guys lose a step or two. It’s a cruel business.
” Ekholm from last year was not helping the team win.”
Do you like PuckIQ? They have him as Edmonton’s best Defenceman last year.
Extending Ekholm now would be a massive mistake, because you don’t know what you’re getting.
I absolutely love the player, but we need to know that his injuries haven’t caused him to fall off a cliff.
Even if the injuries aren’t an issue, he’s already in the latter half of his 30s.
I wouldn’t be against trading Ek if it gave us a stud goalie this season. If extending him it has to be for very small dollars.
With the Walman signing and if Regula keeps getting better then the play is pump and dump Ekholm for ?
For me it only makes sense if he’s capped so that he can play in Kulak’s slot and not be a cap anchor. They need to be able to pay his replacement, and a rising cap doesn’t mean free money. Young guys will get paid as we go
I suspect Ekholm likes Edmonton and would probably sign a short term home town discount worth lower than expected money. He wants to win a cup or two before he retires.
Hate listen on drive to work today in Toronto:
— “He’s put team on notice”
— “if they don’t win next year he’s gone”
— “really had him slotted in as a leaf with Matthews next year”
Never change leaf nation …
— what a stunning “Tom Brady” discount. Just a shocking outcome no one could see.
— it’s interesting: had to dial back excitement as this year his signature on contract doesn’t improve their chances : lots of issues with team now but next year wow can they alter the roster a lot : bring two or 3 6-8mm players with discount to market plus growth of cap
— Thanks CmD. We are so lucky to have you
LFGOILERS!!!
Toronto media is also spinning it in a funny direction though.
Matthews was asked his thoughts about McDavid’s contract and Matthews said
“I think for him, it’s all about winning”
Que the pitchforks towards Matthews saying for him, it’s all about money since he makes more than McDavid but is not as good.
Didn’t like the Bowman hire but so far he’s been the best since Lowes early days. Not sure that’s much of an accomplishment.
I think it is. Walman vs Ceci is enough for me
Harder for me to handicap the GMs that had Peak McDavid and Draisaitl on their rosters.
I find it easier. When you have those 3 players the team will go far. The GM doesn’t get them anywhere, the job is to get enough help. That is supposed to be the easy part when you have 3 world class players in prime. Those teams usually win multiple Cups – Hawks, Kings, Pens, Bolts
I absolutely loved the Walman trade. It really helped to make up for losing Broberg. Honestly, in June 2025 SCF, would you rather have Walman or Broberg as 2RD? I think most would say Walman. I still remember the massive goal he scored for us.
But is Walman worth $7M through age 37?
I hate to be that guy, on a morning where we should all be thrilled for the franchise. But McDavid takes a massive discount…yet we can’t convince Walman to take a discount on the same day?
Florida and Tampa became powerhouses by convincing everybody to take a discount. We should be at that stage.
Walman hasn’t had a sniff of McDavid’s career earnings. This will be his only ‘big’ contract so it’s hard to fault him for wanting a bigger deal
Maybe Walman was pushing for a few extra bucks, and then saw MCD, and said. Ok. I’ll sign your offer of 7, instead of my ask of 7.5.
Or maybe fine, let’s do 7×7 instead of my ask of 7×8.
Walman hasn’t made much money yet. I think the players would support him getting a fair contract
It is go time and Im excited about this years team but Im telling my self to be patience.. New players new coaches and new systems will take time to get up and running on all 8 cylinders
-5 on 5 we are much quicker and the coaches have introduced a new system to reflect us having Savoie, Howard , Philip and Manjiapane vs the system they had to implement to accommodate the likes of old and slow J Skinner ,Perry and Ardvisson
-penalty kill system is new with new players
-power play is being tweaked with new players and more use of a second PP unit
It is going to take a few months to work out the kinks but I think this could be a fun year to watch this team.
Agreed. Do you know what changes they have made, haven’t seen anything.
-5 on 5 they are much quicker in transition .Last year they came up ice as a group much more maybe because Skinner and Perry could not keep up ( my opinion)
– new PP coach who has said he will tweak the PP so they have a different look as other teams seem to be keying on . i.e always Dri from his office
-https://www.hockeylatest.com/nhl-team/edmonton-oilers/kris-knoblauch-confirms-one-major-strategic-change-the-edmonton-oilers-plan-to-make-for-next-season
Thanks
I think it helps that Stan seems to genuinely enjoy the procurement side of the job. He’s quoted as saying he likes finding those hidden gems and building them up. He must’ve played NHL GM mode growing up.
It helps when you’re actually excited to go to Scandinavia over breaks to speak in person to the players. It seems some GM’s pack it up whenever they get the chance, although less common.
Embracing any new techniques available to improve a roster, adding staff and expertise, leaving no rock unturned, that’s how you build and maintain a contender. Feels like it’s taken this franchise twice as long to come to this point, but progress!!
Sometimes the ole Winchester is correct. I had 2 years at 12.5 prediction out months ago.
Putting myself in his shoes, how can he do the most to guide the team to Stanley? He knows top heavy teams have failed. He knows the bottom of the roster is critical. He knows even the best player can be minimized with playoff tactics.
Besides scoring goals, he knows this is the number one thing he can do to help. But not forever. Three year window now. After that he still may not leave, but only fair he gets a big raise.
Wonderful, wonderful commitment and sacrifice for his team and teammates. I really want him and this group to win, they have worked so hard for it.
Such great news yesterday.
Good points. If he stays, I think he will continue to take lower contracts. Every season is a shot at a Cup on a well run team, and it is now methinks. I didn’t think Connor was about money, and he’s already made more than he’ll ever need
I firmly believe he did this to help the team win, and I also believe he didn’t want to make tons more than Leon career wise, as Leon is as important as he is to their success. Looking at it if I’m right Leon should catch up some but not all the way
Leon delivered the first high value contract, Connor the second