Scouts

by Lowetide
Photo by Rob Ferguson

I keep everything. It’s both a curse and a giant pain in the ass. It’s also a gigantic pool of story ideas for me and helps me write every day. So, one week I’m reading about Pierre Jarry joining the Minnesota North Stars in November 1975 because they’ve traded all their draft picks and are getting old in a hurry, and the next week I’m reading about the Buffalo Sabres flushing their scouts and going with video in 2010. Guess what you’re going to read about today.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

Scouts

In the summer of 2010, The Hockey News hired a bunch of interesting writers who offered fresh views. It didn’t last but I loved it. One of them was a former hockey exec named Tom Thompson, who had a scouting background. Thompson had a conversational writing style and since he was an industry exec he was giving me valuable information about what hockey teams were doing during the draft season. Here’s a passage from just after the 2010 draft:

“This will not be a critical look at the first round of the 2010 Entry Draft for one important reason – never has the order of selection so closely followed my personal list. Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ. I will let you choose.” 

The Oilers had drafted pretty close to the McKenzie list and of course the McKenzie list was (and is) the industry standard. Here are the Oilers picks with the McKenzie numbers in brackets:

  • No. 1 Taylor Hall (BM 1)
  • No. 31 Tyler Pitlick (BM 25)
  • No. 46 Martin Marincin (BM 71)
  • No. 48 Curtis Hamilton (BM 57)
  • No. 61 Ryan Martindale (BM 58)
  • No. 91 Jeremie Blain
  • No. 121 Tyler Bunz
  • No. 162 Brandon Davidson
  • No. 166: Drew Czerwonka
  • No. 181: Kristians Pelss
  • No. 202: Kellen Jones

By 2010 I was also paying attention to Red Line report, who were delightful in that the verbal had an edge and that they didn’t give one tiny fur ball about consensus. Red Line was the 31st team and they made their list. Here’s how it looked run through the Oilers picks:

  • No. 1 Taylor Hall (Red Line 1)
  • No. 31 Tyler Pitlick (Red Line 30)
  • No. 46 Martin Marincin (Red Line 50)
  • No. 48 Curtis Hamilton (Red Line 121)
  • No. 61 Ryan Martindale (Red Line 100)
  • No. 91 Jeremie Blain (Red Line 156)
  • No. 121 Tyler Bunz (Red Line 178)
  • No. 162 Brandon Davidson (Red Line 204)
  • No. 166: Drew Czerwonka
  • No. 181: Kristians Pelss (Red Line 218)
  • No. 202: Kellen Jones

Eventually, I would graduate to NHLE and at this point I think an equivalency and a scouting staff who give their view on each prospect is the best route to go. Here are the NHLE’s for Oilers picks in 2010. Who would you put your money on?

  • No. 1 Taylor Hall 49.3
  • No. 31 Tyler Pitlick 18.0
  • No. 46 Martin Marincin 4.1
  • No. 48 Curtis Hamilton 15.2
  • No. 61 Ryan Martindale 26.1
  • No. 91 Jeremie Blain 13.8
  • No. 121 Tyler Bunz .898
  • No. 162 Brandon Davidson 14.3
  • No. 166: Drew Czerwonka 6.0
  • No. 181: Kristians Pelss 3.7
  • No. 202: Kellen Jones 13.8

Top forward (Hall) and top defensemen (Davidson) by NHLE made the NHL, plus Pitlick and Marincin. Pitlick remains shy offensively and no offensive measure was going to predict Marincin (who I believe is still early in his career. He’s a Pelagornis sandersi).

HARVEST MOON 2010

Here’s what I wrote in Harvest Moon 2010:

Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections.

Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.

SCOUTS

I truly believe math can help a draft. If you look at the players who will be available when Edmonton picks No. 14 overall (using Bob McKenzie’s list) math is screaming some names and not saying a word about others.

  • No. 12 BM Anton Lundell 23.6 NHLE
  • No. 13 BM Dawson Mercer 33.3 NHLE
  • No. 14 BM Kaiden Guhle 15.5 NHLE
  • No. 15 BM Hendrix Lapierre 20.8 NHLE
  • No. 16 BM Dylan Holloway 13.3 NHLE
  • No. 18 BM Seth Jarvis 41.8 NHLE
  • No. 19 Rodion Amirov 19.1 NHLE
  • No. 20 Lukas Reichel 24.4 NHLE
  • No. 21 Jacob Perreault 32.5 NHLE
  • No. 22 Connor Zary 37.4 NHLE
  • No. 23 John Peterka 11.2 NHLE
  • No. 24 Ridly Greig 26.5 NHLE
  • No. 26 Mavrik Bourque 33.7 NHLE

So there are five names here who are clearly identified by math. I think scouts are vital to the process, so it’s important to find out about each player. Maybe Jacob Perreault is such a good shooter that the decision is made to pass on Jarvis and the others. Math informs the decision, but has earned a seat at the table. I believe this to be true.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

NHL quarterfinals are underway and some eyebrow raising results in the early days of this round. At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we’ll discuss that and more. Jesse Granger of The Athletic is scheduled to join us at 10:20, NHL teams are doing morning avails now so that’s a moving target. RJ Anderson from CBS Sports will also join us at 11 to talk MLB deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Bohologo

Operating on the time-honoured principle that it’s better to seek forgiveness than permission, I’m reposting this from the last thread, I hope LT does not mind too much:

SwedishPoster:
Lavoie arrived in Ängelholm(where Rögle is playing, beautiful little town by the sea, less than 30000 inhabitants, summertown,not a lot going on during winter tbh, except hockey of course) yesterday and did a short interview before trying to sleep. Apparently I was wrong on Holland’s connections being the reason why he’s there, he himself had been looking at options in europe due to the uncertainty surrounding the AHL and he trains with Eric Gelinas who wears an A for Rögle in summer. Gelinas told Rögle GM Chris Abbott about him and he contacted the Oilers who liked the idea. So it’s pretty much Lavoie taking care of his own development, I like that.
When everything had been sorted out on friday Abbott asked Lavoie when he wanted to come over and he said as soon as possible so he pretty much got on the first flight over, I like that too, and hopes to be on ice with the team today. If his gear arrives, his luggage got stuck in Paris. Probably wanted to take a chance and check out how the restoration of Notre Dame is going.

He mentioned that he’s well aware about it being a tough transition from juniors,spoke about his strengths, shooting, take the puck to the net, physical when needed.

Seems to be a player with his focus in check. Hopefully he can transition well. As I’ve mentioned before, the SHL is a difficult league to play in for skill players, lots of skating, lots of checking, not a lot of time. Former Oiler Roman Horak has said in an interview that it was a much more difficult league to play in than the KHL due to the constant checking, the skill level clearly higher in Russia but the pace way higher in Sweden. Very very interesting to see how he adapts.

Harpers Hair

Kapanen traded to the Penguins.

More to come.

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair:
Kapanen traded to the Penguins.

More to come.

Marino?

GordieHoweHatTrick

Harpers Hair:
Kapanen traded to the Penguins.

More to come.

So it begins…some teams that are remarkably even MOAR desperate then the Oil are going to start moving bodies

Elgin R

Bohologo,

Thank you for the post – very good read. Seems to be the anti-JP at the age of 18. Mature, practical, dedicated. I was shocked that Lavoie and Kaliyev slipped to the 2nd round. Looks promising for the Oilers. Better to play against men in the SHL than boys in the CHL.

Harpers Hair

GordieHoweHatTrick: So it begins…some teams that are remarkably even MOAR desperate then the Oil are going to start moving bodies

Hearing it’s a first round pick.

Harpers Hair

Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) Tweeted:
Leafs turning Kapanen and fringes into a 1st and slightly better fringes, which is what I understand this deal to be, is some fantastic work. Lots of people thought a trade with PIT meant an incoming goalie, but the first alone is historically worth more than any non-elite goalie

Eh Team

JimmyV1965: Marino?

Not even Dubas is that good. A 3rd line winger for a #1 RD. SIgn me up.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Eh Team,

Marino isn’t THAT good. He had a strong rookie season as a 2RD; let’s keep perspective.

Rondo

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC

TOR D prospect Jesper Lindgren also going to PIT. Sounds like a first-rounder is key part of return. TOR clearing space

Harpers Hair

Rick (@Rick_City) Tweeted:
The Penguins just traded their first round pick in 2020 for their first round pick in 2014

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Rob Rossi
@Real_RobRossi
Details for Penguins:
RW Kasperi Kapanen
D Jesper Lindgren
LW Pontus Aberg

Maples Leafs getting:
2020 Rd 1 pick (15 overall)
LW Evan Rodrigues
C Filip Hallander
D David Warsofsky

Bohologo

Elgin R,

All credit to the legendary SwedishPoster for this one!

Elgin R

I wonder about the NHLe of Holloway given that rookies do not get prime ice-time usage in the NCAA. So, looking at centers listed in their 17-year old season may provide a different perspective.

NHLe During 2018 / 2019 Season (draft -1 season)
Zary (LC) = 26.3
Mercer (RC) = 21.9
Holloway (LC) = 20.4
Bourque (RC) = 19.6
Jarvis (RC) = 15.8

Jarvis zoomed it this year, but is the smallest player and listed as the poorest skater by DraftCenter.
Zary and Holloway are LC. Is that a negative for the Oilers? Although Holloway is listed as the best skater.
Mercer and Bourque may be the play at #14.

I would choose Holloway.

bsmart

Anyone know what the NHLE is for Jack Quinn?

Elgin R

bsmart,

Jack Quinn NHLe = 38.0

bsmart

Elgin R,

Thanks : )

Eh Team

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Marino isn’t THAT good. He had a strong rookie season as a 2RD; let’s keep perspective.

Actually he is. If he isn’t a #1RD, he is really close now and will be with any sort of progression. And he carried Jack Johnson around for most of the year.

Imagine the Oilers D with Marino and Petry.

Brantford Boy

I obviously fell asleep for awhile… I thought there was a trade freeze? When was this lifted? Isn’t it normal to not have trades during the playoffs? I hope Holland is working the phones…

Elgin R

bsmart,

https://nhlecalculator.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-nhle-calculator-updated-24052017.html.

Although it is listed as a 2017 model, the conversion factors were updated o4/11/2019.

Harpers Hair

Brantford Boy:
I obviously fell asleep for awhile… I thought there was a trade freeze?When was this lifted?Isn’t it normal to not have trades during the playoffs? I hope Holland is working the phones…

All teams out of the playoffs have been able to make trades since play resumed.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Eh Team,

Are you in the habit of anointing all 23 year old Dmen who have strong rookie seasons as 1RD? Because that’s pretty exclusive company in my estimation and should be reserved for players that prove they can replicate their initial successes.

Further, he didn’t spend most of the year w/ Johnson. He was shuffled around a bunch but spent the majority of his TOI w/ Pettersson:

375:42 w/ Pettersson (15-13 GD)
183:28 w/ Johnson (7-7 GD)
162:54 w/ Letang (9-7 GD)
147:13 w/ Dumoulin (13-6 GD)

Given the fluid nature of the Pens’ D corps, he saw mixed deployments against elites, too. In conclusion, he’s trending as a quality 2RD for now; where he goes from here is up for discussion.

Darth Tu

Bohologo:
Operating on the time-honoured principle that it’s better to seek forgiveness than permission, I’m reposting this from the last thread, I hope LT does not mind too much:

Thanks Bohologo, and even more thanks to SP.

I’m impressed with the young man. He’s making all the right noises. I liked the pick when we drafted him, now I like what I’m hearing as he’s heading towards being a full pro, this is a great attitude.

Onward and upwards Mr Lavoie!

OriginalPouzar

Wow, that seems like a massive win for Dubas and the Leafs:

15th overall, a very good prospect in Hallander and cap space for Kapanen.

I would have liked Kapanen but I don’t think he would be a great fit for the top 6 – listening to Bob Lawton a week ago or so and there are some similarities to AA in that he seems to have trouble playing and producing with higher end skill – kind of a lone wolf out there. Kapanen has other skills over AA (two ability, PK, etc.) but I don’t know if he would have been a fit in the top 6.

That would be akin to the 14th overall and Samorukov (or better) for Kapanen – no thank you.

Either way – great job by Dubas to get some legit assets and open up the cap space -they are going to try and make room for Pieterangelo.

Eh Team

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Are you in the habit of anointing all 23 year old Dmen who have strong rookie seasons as 1RD? Because that’s pretty exclusive company in my estimation and should be reserved for players that prove they can replicate their initial successes.

Fair enough. I’m saying his results in his rookie year were comparable to a 1st pairing d’man. Here’s a comparison to Quinn Hughes for example. Hard to say who was better.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&p1=8478507&p2=8480800&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

Here’s a comparison to Pietrengelo.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&p1=8478507&p2=8480800&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

Marino is a top 50 NHL defenceman right now, and probably better.

Darth Tu

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Rob Rossi
@Real_RobRossi
Details for Penguins:
RW Kasperi Kapanen
D Jesper Lindgren
LW Pontus Aberg

Maples Leafs getting:
2020 Rd 1 pick (15 overall)
LW Evan Rodrigues
C Filip Hallander
D David Warsofsky

This feels like an overpay to me. Someone please correct me.

I guess if Askarov is still floating there at 15 (if the Oil pass) that’s an easy grab for the Laffs. What was the deal with Pittsburgh having the option to send their pick this year to Minnesota? Do they have to send next years draft pick to them instead now?

OriginalPouzar

Dylan Holloway’s name being dropped by insiders close to the org (which has, in the past, been a legit sign) and Seth Jarvis on Oilers Now with Stauffer the other day.

The NHLe of the two are VASTLY different.

At the same time, I’m not necessarily full of trust in NHLe for non CHL leagues – NCAA one that I don’t necessarily trust. With that said, he was only a 0.5 PPG guy in his rookie college year. Many are still in the development program, pre-college but, then again, we’ve seen some PPG plus year for draft eligible rookie pros in the NCAA.

I don’t know what to think on Holloway.

dustrock

Holloway has the body, does he have the skill level?

Could he be Bill Guerin? God I’d love to have a winger like Guerin.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Darth Tu,

It’s an overpay for sure. Jim Rutherford showing his desperation.

fries n gravy

At least one Oiler scout hired when GM Chiarelli came in had an expiring contract this summer. I gathered that there were others in his situation but he didn’t give specifics. Holland retained the existing scouts when taking over. I gathered that as GMs move around the league, they gradually bring in their guys as the last GM’s guys’ contracts expire, but that’s half guesswork by me.

I don’t know what impact this would have on the Oilers, but it’s minimal if anything. Scouts tend to watch games early in the seasons, but typically the head scouts and execs start watching the main kids too as the list of kids shortens through the season. Thus this comment can be filed as “probably true, maybe interesting, and probably irrelevant.”

Younger Oil

What an absolutely terrible trade by Rutherford. That is an absolutely insane package to give up for a fairly average middle six winger. There’s a very good chance that Toronto got the best two players in the trade, AND Cap Space. Too bad we don’t have a single middle six winger, or Holland could have been all over that.

If I’m Holland, I’m sending in a low ball offer for Jarry, and seeing what happens.

RonnieB

Darth Tu: This feels like an overpay to me. Someone please correct me.

I guess if Askarov is still floating there at 15 (if the Oil pass) that’s an easy grab for the Laffs. What was the deal with Pittsburgh having the option to send their pick this year to Minnesota? Do they have to send next year’s draft pick to them instead now?

The answer about the pick is yes.
Pittsburg is cutting salary costs. Despite his $3.2 Cap hit, Kapanen’s salary cost to Pittsburg is just $1,86 in 2020-21 and $2.34 in 2021-22. I would expect somebody like Zucker or Rust or Tanev to become available from Pittsburg now.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
Dylan Holloway’s name being dropped by insiders close to the org (which has, in the past, been a legit sign) and Seth Jarvis on Oilers Now with Stauffer the other day.

The NHLe of the two are VASTLY different.

At the same time, I’m not necessarily full of trust in NHLe for non CHL leagues – NCAA one that I don’t necessarily trust.With that said, he was only a 0.5 PPG guy in his rookie college year.Many are still in the development program, pre-college but, then again, we’ve seen some PPG plus year for draft eligible rookie pros in the NCAA.

I don’t know what to think on Holloway.

Holloway has progression through his rookie season in Wisconsin. So he is a moving target ..different 2nd half of the season form the first. CHL draftees are usually in their 2nd season on the same team.

So it is a projection based scouting vs. NHLE over a young player (for US College hockey) whose numbers may be suppressed by acclimatization.

I haven’t seen him play so I have no opinion at this point,

DBO

RonnieB,

Just saying Kris Russell has a $4 mill cap hit but is only owed $1.5 mill in cash. Be a good solid gritty 3D Pittsburgh. You know you want to!!!

godot10

The Askarov talk will never stop now as the Leafs (who needs a goaltender) are drafting behind the OIlers and Carolina (who needs a goaltender) drafts in front of the Oilers.

#ThereWillBeMindGames
#ThereWillBeBloviating

#ShootMeNowAndPutMeOutOfTheMiseryIKnowIAmGoingToExperience

Darth Tu

godot10:
The Askarov talk will never stop now as the Leafs (who needs a goaltender) are drafting behind the OIlers and Carolina (who needs a goaltender) drafts in front of the Oilers.

#ThereWillBeMindGames
#ThereWillBeBloviating

#ShootMeNowAndPutMeOutOfTheMiseryIKnowIAmGoingToExperience

You know the goalie chat will never end until either Rodrigue or Konovalov are ready to step into the NHL.

Personally I’d be happy with Askarov as our first round selection.

Todd Macallan

I’d have time for Holloway, but only if Quinn and Jarvis are off the board and we trade back from 14 to acquire a 2nd rounder.

I tend to view him as a Chris Kreider type given his build and speed, but he appears to be a bit more versatile defensively and can also play center. Not a bad prospect in the early to mid 20s.

leadfarmer

Pitt already dont have their first rounder next year, now they dont have one this year

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer:
Pitt already dont have their first rounder next year, now they dont have one this year

Toronto didn’t have a first round pick this year and now they do.

Lots can change in a year.

Ranford.85

Another team looking for a 1st round pick would be Arizona. I read an article about the Coyotes wanting to shake things up and that they’re even open to trading OEL.
Would Nurse/Klefbom and our 1st rounder be enough? Is that crazy to contemplate? Pair that with a disposal of KRussell….

OEL – Larsson
Nurse/Klef – Bear
Jones – Benning/Bouch

That looks like a major upgrade to me.

Harpers Hair

godot10:
The Askarov talk will never stop now as the Leafs (who needs a goaltender) are drafting behind the OIlers and Carolina (who needs a goaltender) drafts in front of the Oilers.

#ThereWillBeMindGames
#ThereWillBeBloviating

#ShootMeNowAndPutMeOutOfTheMiseryIKnowIAmGoingToExperience

Pretty sure the Leafs would take a D at that spot if available.

RD Kaiden Guhle?

Todd Macallan

Harpers Hair: Pretty sure the Leafs would take a D at that spot if available.

RD Kaiden Guhle?

Shoots left.

Crazy Pedestrian

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Eh Team,

Are you in the habit of anointing all 23 year old Dmen who have strong rookie seasons as 1RD? Because that’s pretty exclusive company in my estimation and should be reserved for players that prove they can replicate their initial successes.

Further, he didn’t spend most of the year w/ Johnson. He was shuffled around a bunch but spent the majority of his TOI w/ Pettersson:

375:42 w/ Pettersson (15-13 GD)
183:28 w/ Johnson (7-7 GD)
162:54 w/ Letang (9-7 GD)
147:13 w/ Dumoulin (13-6 GD)

Given the fluid nature of the Pens’ D corps, he saw mixed deployments against elites, too. In conclusion, he’s trending as a quality 2RD for now; where he goes from here is up for discussion.

So, From what I’m reading, He’s essentially Trending to be Ethan Bear.

Darth Tu

Non hockey related – sounds like Messi is actually off.

Maybe join the old man Juve (known as “The Old Lady” which is somewhat ironic) and play alongside Ronaldo? I think I’d rather see him there rather than one of the financial doping teams (Man City/PSG).

Rondo

godot10:
The Askarov talk will never stop now as the Leafs (who needs a goaltender) are drafting behind the OIlers and Carolina (who needs a goaltender) drafts in front of the Oilers.

#ThereWillBeMindGames
#ThereWillBeBloviating

Nashville could take Askarov too.

#ShootMeNowAndPutMeOutOfTheMiseryIKnowIAmGoingToExperience

Tragikomix

godot10:
The Askarov talk will never stop now as the Leafs (who needs a goaltender) are drafting behind the OIlers and Carolina (who needs a goaltender) drafts in front of the Oilers.

#ThereWillBeMindGames
#ThereWillBeBloviating

#ShootMeNowAndPutMeOutOfTheMiseryIKnowIAmGoingToExperience

Canes drafted goalie last year with #36 pick. And they need better goalie now, not in 3-4 years.

Rondo

Nashville could take Askarov too.

Todd Macallan

Harpers Hair: Pretty sure the Leafs would take a D at that spot if available.

RD Kaiden Guhle?

Braden Schneider might be a RD the Leafs would consider if he’s there at 15. Great skater and defender but can also move the puck well. Quite physical. Not sure he fits the Dubas mold but would be a fan favourite.