Up Around the Bend

by Lowetide

In the late summer of 2016, Travis Yost made an appearance on the Lowdown. After an especially awful food take, Yost said “the thing about this Oilers team is they have McDavid and that combined with goaltending might get you into the playoffs.”

It happened just that way in 2016-17. Or did it? What about the defense that season? How good was it? Who did the hard work? How far is the current team away from having the same calibre defense?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

2016-17 VERSUS ELITES (PUCK IQ)

This is the defensive group Todd McLellan used during the 2016-17 season. There is a clear top 4-D, veterans all and the minutes are divided basically even between the top two pairings.

Benning, Davidson, Gryba and Nurse all played a significant amount against elites at five on five.

Terrific goal differential at the top here, Klefbom-Larsson are on a romp. Notice Russell’s line here, he was fourth among the top-four in DFF% but first in GA/60. Russell defends too much but he and Sekera were an effective tandem in 2016-17.

2019-20 VERSUS ELITES (PUCK IQ)

Unlike the 2016-17 team, led at the top by veterans, this group pushed rookie Ethan Bear into a feature role. He performed admirably, but trying it two years in a row—and that will happen with Klefbom’s injury—is unwise. Coach Tippett didn’t trust his third pair like McLellan did in 2016-17, the No. 5 man here played one minute less than in the playoff year. That may be a reason for Benning’s exit.

THE 2020-21 PAIRINGS

I’ve been thinking about the best way to deploy this defense next year, and have decided Caleb Jones should play with the veteran Adam Larsson. If you have Nurse—Bear and get the results above, you can live with them. Jones—Larsson will rely on the veteran’s savvy and the young man’s skating and passing skills. That leaves Russell—Barrie as the third pairing, and hopefully they can close the gap and take on more of the load. I don’t believe Russell can play big minutes anymore. Jones is the key, pretty sure.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BRUCE

I’ve made many friends since starting this blog, some of you are many miles away and my mind’s eye conjures up the image of you. Leadfarmer types his comments into this section of the internet from a rich and beautiful study, with books lining each wall and a massive photo of Queen Elizabeth behind him. Original Pouzar writes on his phone while waiting for his next client. DSF wears a captain’s hat and owns a pipe, looks into the lagoon for a few minutes before typing. Bendelson is wise and humble, and one of two people on this blog who know what CanCon is. Godot plays chess in the park.

Then there’s a group who I have met, and know enough about to have an educated guess when it comes to typing comments into this section. Woodguy types from his phone hurriedly, which explains his spelling and his baffling inability to know the handedness of all living creatures. Clarkenstein owns a mountain and has 400 cars parked in his cave. PDO brings passion to everything.

Then there’s Bruce McCurdy. There are over 10,000 “McCurdy” references in the comments section of this blog. That isn’t Bruce commenting 10,000 times, a lot of those hits are people responding to what he wrote. Bruce is insightful, funny and has a tremendous memory, so he informs and inspires with his presence. I picked a random post from 2012:

This is Bruce’s birthday. He is a gift to all of us, an Oilers and hockey Smithsonian brought to life, and a funny, caring person too. We have met some great people in the course of this blog’s existence, and Bruce is a dear one. Happy birthday, Bruce! You are now legal everywhere!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, as we hit the ground running at 10, TSN1260. Tom Gazzola from TSN and NHL network will join me to piece together the Oilers 2020-21. Paul Sir from The Basketball Show and Basketball Canada will join us at 11 to discuss Lebron’s place in NBA history. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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defmn

SwedishPoster: There are a couple of routes you can go with arthritis and one is surgery. You first try with anti-inflammatory drugs, sometimes cortison injections and physio. If it’s due to wear, tear and old age the arthritis can be located in a couple of places in the shoulder and depending on where there are different surgeries, one being arthroplasty which isn’t really an option for an athlete at least to my knowledge.

In athletes the first step is similar but the surgical route is different. Arthritis in the shoulder of an athlete tends to be secondary to an earlier shoulder injury, just like Klef had in his D+1 season, it’s usually the AC-joint in the shoulder that’s affected and what you do is you remove a part of the clavicle to avoid bones grinding against each other causing pain. It can either be done via arthroscopy, which is less invasive and allows for quicker recovery but you might not be able to remove enough bone. Or you can do open surgery which allows you to remove more bone but the rehab process is longer. I assume the surgery he did a few years ago was arthroscopic and they are now contemplating open surgery.

I’m not an orthopedic surgeon, a mere ER doc who dabbles in sports medicine with my own sports team, so not completely updated on the different surgical methods but I think those are the options available. Lot happening in the field of sports medicine and they’re developing more efficient methods all the time. Injuries that were career ending just a few years ago can be treated with great results today so maybe they have something completely different in mind for Klef.

I’m always amazed at the amount of non-hockey related expertise on this board. I had no idea you were a medical doctor.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Cassandra

Georgexs:
Look, it’s hard to argue against “Who you play against matters a ton”. We can all picture the results if 4th line players were hard matched against Nathan MacKinnons each and every night. (Coaches probably have some pact against this kind of mutually assured destruction.)

The problem is, you look through PuckIQ, and you get the opposite impression, that who you play against doesn’t matter. Players’ results don’t track the quality of their competition.

Doesn’t that make anyone else hesitate?

Your question may be rhetorical because I think you know the answer already. Anyway, many years ago I did a regression analysis between QoC and shots and found that QoC had a positive effect on shot differentials. Surely, a counterintuitive result.

The reason is that quality of competition is not independent of quality of teammates. The players who play the toughest competition do so with the best teammates. Moreover, they only play the toughest competition about 30 % of the time but they play with the best teammates all the time (especially forwards).

Now this is in general, of course, which means the only way to use QoC is on an individual and contextual basis.

Even then, though, it is hard to know whether you are measuring talent or teammates.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of Benson, he had a primary assist in the GCK Lions 2-1 loss yesterday.

SwedishPoster

I also ofc don’t know it’s his AC-joint that’s the issue it’s just the most common spot in athletes.

SwedishPoster

defmn: I don’t think Gregor would put it out there without info either but we keep hearing surgery/no surgery and maybe there is something I don’t understand about arthritis but I don’t know that surgery is an option if that is the problem.

Maybe somebody with more of a medical background can correct me on that but I have known a few people with arthritis & have never heard of surgery as as option.

There are a couple of routes you can go with arthritis and one is surgery. You first try with anti-inflammatory drugs, sometimes cortison injections and physio. If it’s due to wear, tear and old age the arthritis can be located in a couple of places in the shoulder and depending on where there are different surgeries, one being arthroplasty which isn’t really an option for an athlete at least to my knowledge.

In athletes the first step is similar but the surgical route is different. Arthritis in the shoulder of an athlete tends to be secondary to an earlier shoulder injury, just like Klef had in his D+1 season, it’s usually the AC-joint in the shoulder that’s affected and what you do is you remove a part of the clavicle to avoid bones grinding against each other causing pain. It can either be done via arthroscopy, which is less invasive and allows for quicker recovery but you might not be able to remove enough bone. Or you can do open surgery which allows you to remove more bone but the rehab process is longer. I assume the surgery he did a few years ago was arthroscopic and they are now contemplating open surgery.

I’m not an orthopedic surgeon, a mere ER doc who dabbles in sports medicine with my own sports team, so not completely updated on the different surgical methods but I think those are the options available. Lot happening in the field of sports medicine and they’re developing more efficient methods all the time. Injuries that were career ending just a few years ago can be treated with great results today so maybe they have something completely different in mind for Klef.

Bruce McCurdy

SoCaloil:
Glad you’re enjoying it Bruce. Given LT’s close coupling of music and hockey, you really have to tell us the new record!

An album from 1980 called Smallcreep’s Day by Mike Rutherford. The then newly-reduced trio that remained in Genesis all did solo albums around that time, with Phil Collins’ Face Value hitting it big.

jp

Georgexs:
Look, it’s hard to argue against “Who you play against matters a ton”. We can all picture the results if 4th line players were hard matched against Nathan MacKinnons each and every night. (Coaches probably have some pact against this kind of mutually assured destruction.)

The problem is, you look through PuckIQ, and you get the opposite impression, that who you play against doesn’t matter. Players’ results don’t track the quality of their competition.

Doesn’t that make anyone else hesitate?

Yes.

Personally, I like to use %TOI vs Elites from PuckIQ and then look at overall DFF% and other results through that lens.

jp

Bruce McCurdy,

All the best to you Bruce. Very much appreciate your comments here and your writing at CoH.

I don’t recall if you’ve ever said whether you’re a townie or a bayman but I also appreciate our shared roots.

Cheers and happy birthday to you.

jp

Elgin R: JP even spoke about doing PK in one interview I saw. Playfairs mission if he chooses to accept it!

Cool, I didn’t know that. Any idea if he’s been a PKer in Karpat?

If so then it might make sense. If not, well DSF (the decidedly skeptical one) is probably right.

That said, I’m kinda expecting more PK out of Draisaitl and Yamamoto (if Nuge is playing PP1, PK1/2 and 5v5 with Draisaitl/Yamamoto, I don’t see why the other 2 can’t PK as well). Not saying I like it, but maybe that would allow a bottom 6 that is >45%GF at 5v5?

jp

Doug McLachlan: Ratings on Sportsnet would be insane enough that they might lobby to make it permanent.

The travel (for the Western teams at least) wouldn’t be much worse than the Pacific Division either.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Nuge, Yamamoto, Kassian and ___ (likely Neal or Nygard (has had success with McDavid).

At the end of the day, Coach T. is the coach, not Holland and Coach T. may very well put Puljujarvi and/or Ennis up there for day 1. I would imagine that, with current roster construction, Ennis and Nuge are the top 6 LWs.

Well most of us have assumed it’ll be Ennis joining the top 6 (Nuge, Yamamoto and Kassian are close to givens, though some will argue Kassian). I’ve certainly expected Ennis there as well, that’s why I took notice.

Absolutely Tippett is the coach but he and Holland seem to be on the same page for the most part. At the very least they have a good understanding of what the other is thinking. So maybe there’s something to this.

Is it Neal? (or Nygard, or Benson, though I think those 2 are very unlikely).
Is Holland expecting a trade for a top 6? (Kassian for a LW?)
Is Holland still expecting to sign a cheaper UFA? (Kahun, AA, Kovalchuk, Granlund. Heck, maybe Holland like Leivo half as much as LT does). A modest UFA could work using Klefbom’s LTIR, but that might be tempered by not knowing Klefbom’s plans.

Anyway, maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something.

SoCaloil

Glad you’re enjoying it Bruce. Given LT’s close coupling of music and hockey, you really have to tell us the new record!

defmn

ashley: There aren’t any quick fixes for osteoarthritis in a 28 yo athlete.There is physio and injections.Cartilage research is in it’s infancy.He’s too young for a joint replacement and I’m not sure a pro athlete has ever played with a shoulder arthroplasty?I’m not sure it would stand up to the impact taken in the game.

However, there are many pro athletes who have played with severe shoulder OA and had lengthy careers after the diagnosis.One famous Oiler is Mike Grier.Terrible shoulders right from the beginning.Gritty and quality player until the end.

It doesn’t have to be the end of his career.

Thanks. That was helpful.

flyfish1168

Bruce McCurdy:
A quick & entirely inadequate thank you to our eminent host & to so many commenters for your kind words. Officially a senior citizen today & apparently the whole world knows it. I have received well wishes by telephone, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, Messenger, text messages, DM, email, this comments section, & even one actual person who had to drop something off & passed along his socially distant bon mots & a gift (a vinyl record!). Otherwise I received many GIFs. So many ways to make contact these days, even as in COVID times the virtual has largely overwhelmed the visceral.

Received messages via other media from longtime Lowetide commenters Shepso & Raven Talon 40. Awesome to hear from them, & from all of you. Thank you.

HBD Bruce. Enjoy all your comments here

defmn

OriginalPouzar: From listening to Holland the other day, he spoke about planning on not having Klef but that wasn’t a certainty and he could very well show up for camp ready to go (or words to that effect).

I got the feeling, that Klef was maybe going to give the shoulder a good long stretch of rest and healing time to see how it feels (prior to deciding on surgery) and maybe, as camp nears, if its feeling as good as ever, boom, he’s there.

Of course (a) that’s just what I sensed and could be way off and (b) that could lead to cap issues depending on if Holland spends more cap this off-season predicated on off-season LTIR usage (which is unlikely).

Thanks. A lot of moving parts this off season all around the league. In a normal off season I would think Holland is pretty much done other than a nibble around the edges but too many unsigned guys and teams in cap trouble to know how close we are to seeing the finished product.

ashley

defmn: Well, I learned something today. I googled ‘surgery for arthritis’ and it is definitely a thing. I did not know that- maybe because everybody I know that has arthritis is old.

So it makes sense now and from a quick read it is a difficult call and not without danger of making things worse so I understand Klef wanting to take his time if this is what he is dealing with.

Way too young to have to deal with this.

There aren’t any quick fixes for osteoarthritis in a 28 yo athlete. There is physio and injections. Cartilage research is in it’s infancy. He’s too young for a joint replacement and I’m not sure a pro athlete has ever played with a shoulder arthroplasty? I’m not sure it would stand up to the impact taken in the game.

However, there are many pro athletes who have played with severe shoulder OA and had lengthy careers after the diagnosis. One famous Oiler is Mike Grier. Terrible shoulders right from the beginning. Gritty and quality player until the end.

It doesn’t have to be the end of his career.

McSorley33

digger50: This is getting old

So is Tyler

Georgexs

Look, it’s hard to argue against “Who you play against matters a ton”. We can all picture the results if 4th line players were hard matched against Nathan MacKinnons each and every night. (Coaches probably have some pact against this kind of mutually assured destruction.)

The problem is, you look through PuckIQ, and you get the opposite impression, that who you play against doesn’t matter. Players’ results don’t track the quality of their competition.

Doesn’t that make anyone else hesitate?

OriginalPouzar

jp: Thanks for passing on what Holland’s saying.

So if Ennis and Puljujarvi are in the bottom 6, who are the top 6 wingers?

Nuge, Yamamoto, Kassian and ___ (likely Neal or Nygard (has had success with McDavid).

At the end of the day, Coach T. is the coach, not Holland and Coach T. may very well put Puljujarvi and/or Ennis up there for day 1. I would imagine that, with current roster construction, Ennis and Nuge are the top 6 LWs.

Bruce McCurdy

A quick & entirely inadequate thank you to our eminent host & to so many commenters for your kind words. Officially a senior citizen today & apparently the whole world knows it. I have received well wishes by telephone, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, Messenger, text messages, email, this comments section, & even one actual person who had to drop something off & passed along his socially distant bon mots & a gift (a vinyl record!). Otherwise I received many GIFs. So many ways to make contact these days, even as in COVID times the virtual has largely overwhelmed the visceral.

Received messages via other media from longtime Lowetide commenters Shepso & Raven Talon 40. Awesome to hear from them, & from all of you. Thank you.

Bruce McCurdy

A quick & entirely inadequate thank you to our eminent host & to so many commenters for your kind words. Officially a senior citizen today & apparently the whole world knows it. I have received well wishes by telephone, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, Messenger, text messages, DM, email, this comments section, & even one actual person who had to drop something off & passed along his socially distant bon mots & a gift (a vinyl record!). Otherwise I received many GIFs. So many ways to make contact these days, even as in COVID times the virtual has largely overwhelmed the visceral.

Received messages via other media from longtime Lowetide commenters Shepso & Raven Talon 40. Awesome to hear from them, & from all of you. Thank you.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: You are deliberately skipping the point
You said earlier that they can simply buy those two out
Buyout window is closed
The only way you can still buy players out is having a player go through arbitration which they are actively trying to avoid

Not quite – having a player file for arbitration opens up the 2nd buyout window even if a contract is agreed to prior to arbitration.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: The cap implications are pretty easy to work around in this case because Gallagher’s cap hit is so low.

You have correctly identified acquisition cost as the real issue.

If reports are true that negotiations between Gallagher and the Habs have been acrimonious and have broken off, Montreal might be very motivated to move him since they have just acquired two right wingers who would likely slot above him the lineup.

I wonder if Jake Virtanen and a pick would get it done.

Not necessarily as, when the dead cap hit of apx $2M hits is when BG’s new contract would kick in – unless this is a one year rental….

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Well, I learned something today. I googled ‘surgery for arthritis’ and it is definitely a thing. I did not know that- maybe because everybody I know that has arthritis is old.

So it makes sense now and from a quick read it is a difficult call and not without danger of making things worse so I understand Klef wanting to take his time if this is what he is dealing with.

Way too young to have to deal with this.

From listening to Holland the other day, he spoke about planning on not having Klef but that wasn’t a certainty and he could very well show up for camp ready to go (or words to that effect).

I got the feeling, that Klef was maybe going to give the shoulder a good long stretch of rest and healing time to see how it feels (prior to deciding on surgery) and maybe, as camp nears, if its feeling as good as ever, boom, he’s there.

Of course (a) that’s just what I sensed and could be way off and (b) that could lead to cap issues depending on if Holland spends more cap this off-season predicated on off-season LTIR usage (which is unlikely).

Georgexs

John Chambers:
Georgexs,

Of course it matters. It matters a great deal.

What you’re proving is that defensemen don’t drive GF% based on who they’re playing against. This is interesting but hardly a shocking revelation.

Show me a defenseman who plays big minutes on a crap team, and I’ll show you a defenseman whose GF% turns on a dime when they join a better club. Who you play WITH is just as vital, and you can’t explore one stat without the other.

“Of course it matters. It matters a great deal.”

How does it matter a great deal? Help me see.

“What you’re proving is that defensemen don’t drive GF% based on who they’re playing against.”

Go to PuckIQ and do the same exercise for the SCF forwards. Let me know what you think.

“This is interesting but hardly a shocking revelation.”

Hardly shocking? Hmm. How do defensemen drive GF% then, if not based on who they’re playing against?

“Show me a defenseman who plays big minutes on a crap team, and I’ll show you a defenseman whose GF% turns on a dime when they join a better club. Who you play WITH is just as vital, and you can’t explore one stat without the other.”

Put a player on a better team and you get a better player. Sure. How is this evidence for who you play against matters “a great deal”? Why, if it matters “a great deal” do you need to explore who you play WITH as well? Things that matter a great deal usually announce themselves more forcefully, do they not?

Material Elvis

Georgexs:
Here are the 19-20 regular season results for the defensemen on the SCF teams:

Heiskanen GF-GA (GF%)

Overall 45-33 (58)
vs. Elite 15-9 (63)
vs. Middle 16-14 (53)
vs. Gritensity 14-10 (58)

Lindell

Overall 41-49 (46)
vs. Elite 11-13 (46)
vs. Middle 15-14 (52)
vs. Gritensity 15-22 (41)

Klingberg

Overall 33-39 (46)
vs. Elite 12-13 (48)
vs. Middle 11-13 (46)
vs. Gritensity 10-13 (44)

Oleksiak

Overall 30-35 (46)
vs. Elite 9-8 (53)
vs. Middle 11-16 (41)
vs. Gritensity 10-11 (48)

Sekera

Overall 20-14 (59)
vs. Elite 7-3 (70)
vs. Middle 8-4 (67)
vs. Gritensity 5-7 (42)

Shattenkirk

Overall 55-31 (64)
vs. Elite 20-9 (69)
vs. Middle 16-8 (67)
vs. Gritensity 19-14 (58)

Sergachev

Overall 49-36 (58)
vs. Elite 15-11 (58)
vs. Middle 18-11 (62)
vs. Gritensity 16-14 (53)

Hedman

Overall 63-36 (64)
vs. Elite 17-8 (68)
vs. Middle 26-12 (68)
vs. Gritensity 20-16 (56)

Cernak

Overall 43-36 (54)
vs. Elite 13-11 (54)
vs. Middle 20-12 (63)
vs. Gritensity 10-13 (44)

McDonagh

Overall 34-29 (54)
vs. Elite 10-13 (44)
vs. Middle 16-10 (62)
vs. Gritensity 8-6 (57)

Question to the math blog:

Does that look like “Who you play against matters a ton”?

These numbers tell me that who you play with is waaay more influential than who you play against, unless your name is Hedman. Also that goalies have the most impact on GA numbers.

jp

OriginalPouzar:

– Added, with the additions of Puljujarvi and Ennis and Turris we’ve added some people to the bottom part of the roster.

Thanks for passing on what Holland’s saying.

So if Ennis and Puljujarvi are in the bottom 6, who are the top 6 wingers?

Rich M

Happy Birthday Bruce.

And thank you to all the contributors here that make this the best blog in hockey. Have learned much thru the years following the writers here.

John Chambers

Georgexs,

Of course it matters. It matters a great deal.

What you’re proving is that defensemen don’t drive GF% based on who they’re playing against. This is interesting but hardly a shocking revelation.

Show me a defenseman who plays big minutes on a crap team, and I’ll show you a defenseman whose GF% turns on a dime when they join a better club. Who you play WITH is just as vital, and you can’t explore one stat without the other.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: You are deliberately skipping the point
You said earlier that they can simply buy those two out
Buyout window is closed
The only way you can still buy players out is having a player go through arbitration which they are actively trying to avoid

Things can change in a heartbeat.

Remember when you were laughing at Benning yesterday and then he got Schmidt for a third round pick three years from now?

Calm your tits.

Georgexs

leadfarmer: I think he’s going to pull him off the pk pretty quick
Hopefully the 4th line is all high end pkers.I don’t care if they don’t score a single goal 5v5 as long as they give us top 5 pk again
Klefs pk absence will hurt but I think Nurse Russell Larsson Bear will survive
Pp will probably be Barrie.And Bear on 2
Will be interesting who the second pp will be.Turris (need a center). Yamamoto JP and probably Neal/chiasson so nurse loses pp time

What’s a high end pker?

Also, if they don’t score a single goal 5v5, we would give back everything they get by being a top 5 pk (and probably more). So here’s to them being top 5 pk and scoring some goals 5v5.

But, really, who is a high end PKer?

Sheahan? But we know he had really, really bad 5v5 results, giving up goals at a higher rate than even CMD, without CMD’s high end GF. I still don’t get that. Is Sheahan great at defense? It’s like YES!! and NO!! all in one. Bizarre.

It’s too bad the PK cracked against CHI. But, I think, it’s suggestive of we may not have been quite as good in that discipline as we thought we were. Unless I’m cross-eyed, of the top 10 PK teams from 18-19, just 3 cracked the top 10 in 19-20. Sure, we should aim for top 5 PK, but we should cross our fingers and toes for average and not be at all angry if we get there.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Also, The Canucks really don’t need Sutter as they already have four centres.
He’s become a very expensive third line winger…easy to cut bait.

You are deliberately skipping the point
You said earlier that they can simply buy those two out
Buyout window is closed
The only way you can still buy players out is having a player go through arbitration which they are actively trying to avoid

Georgexs

Here are the 19-20 regular season results for the defensemen on the SCF teams:

Heiskanen GF-GA (GF%)

Overall 45-33 (58)
vs. Elite 15-9 (63)
vs. Middle 16-14 (53)
vs. Gritensity 14-10 (58)

Lindell

Overall 41-49 (46)
vs. Elite 11-13 (46)
vs. Middle 15-14 (52)
vs. Gritensity 15-22 (41)

Klingberg

Overall 33-39 (46)
vs. Elite 12-13 (48)
vs. Middle 11-13 (46)
vs. Gritensity 10-13 (44)

Oleksiak

Overall 30-35 (46)
vs. Elite 9-8 (53)
vs. Middle 11-16 (41)
vs. Gritensity 10-11 (48)

Sekera

Overall 20-14 (59)
vs. Elite 7-3 (70)
vs. Middle 8-4 (67)
vs. Gritensity 5-7 (42)

Shattenkirk

Overall 55-31 (64)
vs. Elite 20-9 (69)
vs. Middle 16-8 (67)
vs. Gritensity 19-14 (58)

Sergachev

Overall 49-36 (58)
vs. Elite 15-11 (58)
vs. Middle 18-11 (62)
vs. Gritensity 16-14 (53)

Hedman

Overall 63-36 (64)
vs. Elite 17-8 (68)
vs. Middle 26-12 (68)
vs. Gritensity 20-16 (56)

Cernak

Overall 43-36 (54)
vs. Elite 13-11 (54)
vs. Middle 20-12 (63)
vs. Gritensity 10-13 (44)

McDonagh

Overall 34-29 (54)
vs. Elite 10-13 (44)
vs. Middle 16-10 (62)
vs. Gritensity 8-6 (57)

Question to the math blog:

Does that look like “Who you play against matters a ton”?

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs:
PuckIQ starts with the assumption that “Who you play against matters a ton” and then generates results like this:

Darnell Nurse (GF-GA)

vs. Elite 25-18
vs. Middle 14-22
vs. Gritensity 22-31

Miro Heiskanen

vs. Elite 15-9
vs. Middle 16-14
vs. Gritensity 14-10

Nate Schmidt

vs. Elite 10-7
vs. Middle 18-16
vs. Gritensity 15-18

Aaron Ekblad

vs. Elite 23-8
vs. Middle 24-27
vs. Gritensity 19-16

I can’t consistently see a pattern where a player’s results vary in the expected way based on the quality of competition the player faces, i.e., a player should get better results as the QOC decreases. That was the whole point, wasn’t it?

Quality of line-mates also matter – perhaps Nurse is on against the elites with McDavid or Drai and company but on against the Grits with Sheahan and company?

OriginalPouzar

rocket:
rocket,

Only improvement that is expected is our GF vs GA for our 3rd forward line.

I would expect an improvement in goal share for McDavid – hovering in and around 50% can’t be sustainable for him. The coach is clearly live to this and will work to ensure that both the top two lines are material outscoring lines.

Harpers Hair

Harpers Hair: Neither Baertschi or Eriksson were integral parts of the team last season so buying them out is only dependent on whether or not the owner wants to pay for it.

Also, The Canucks really don’t need Sutter as they already have four centres.
He’s become a very expensive third line winger…easy to cut bait.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: If they don’t how the heck do they buy anyone out to fit Gallagher?

Neither Baertschi or Eriksson were integral parts of the team last season so buying them out is only dependent on whether or not the owner wants to pay for it.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Latest word is that Virtanen and the Canucks are trying to avoid arbitration and working on a contract.

Apparently both teams and players are really hoping to avoid arbitration this year because absolutely no one knows what the outcome might be and whether or not the arbitrators will take the Covid economy into account.

If they don’t how the heck do they buy anyone out to fit Gallagher?

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair: The cap implications are pretty easy to work around in this case because Gallagher’s cap hit is so low.

You have correctly identified acquisition cost as the real issue.

If reports are true that negotiations between Gallagher and the Habs have been acrimonious and have broken off, Montreal might be very motivated to move him since they have just acquired two right wingers who would likely slot above him the lineup.

I wonder if Jake Virtanen and a pick would get it done.

Who slots in where?

82 24-23-47
82 13-21-34
68 24-20-44

82 31-23-54
82 33-19-42
59 22-21-43

63 19-11-30
82 27-20-47
26 1-3-4

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I am not convinced the PP will be better.

For sure it has the potential to be better but Klef did a great job distributing the puck this past season and, importantly, what changed from previous years, was that the PP 100% ran through the 3 elite forwards and there was MUCH less of a reliance on shots from the point and threats of shots from the point.

Now, Barrie can and should open up more options from the top – his shot (and right hand shot) is a weapon and he is a better offensive distributor than Klef.

It can and should work as long as they don’t revert to more reliance on shots from the point, etc. Yes, its an option and should be used to create even more issues for the defence but it shouldn’t be a primary focus of the PP.

Well it won’t be better or the same because it was running at historical rates
Even with Klefbom back it would shave a few percentage points

Harpers Hair

defmn: It might get it done but Montreal has the same problem that Vancouver has.

No idea what the arbitration award will be and cap is too tight to be guessing.

Latest word is that Virtanen and the Canucks are trying to avoid arbitration and working on a contract.

Apparently both teams and players are really hoping to avoid arbitration this year because absolutely no one knows what the outcome might be and whether or not the arbitrators will take the Covid economy into account.

OriginalPouzar

rocket:
Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

I am also skeptical that the Oilers have improved especially give that Klefbom is likely out.Klefbom plays the most minutes including 5-on-5, PP and PK.Oilers had best PP in league with Klefbom – chemistry on PP over 2 years – everyone expects our PP to be better with Barrie – maybe, maybe not.Which defensemen will replace Klefbom’s PK minutes?Everyones expecting that Jones and Bear will get better in their 2nd year (i.e. no sophmore slump).Hopefully they will get better.Oilers had the number 2 best PK in league.Sheahan was the number 1 PK forward.I don’t believe Turris will be able to be as effective as Sheahan was on the PK.Oilers did not bring anyone that is an effective penalty killer.Are Bear and Nurse bonafided 1st pairing defensemen???Goaltending stays the same.Only improvement that is expected is our GF vs GA for our 3rd pairing line.

I am not convinced the PP will be better.

For sure it has the potential to be better but Klef did a great job distributing the puck this past season and, importantly, what changed from previous years, was that the PP 100% ran through the 3 elite forwards and there was MUCH less of a reliance on shots from the point and threats of shots from the point.

Now, Barrie can and should open up more options from the top – his shot (and right hand shot) is a weapon and he is a better offensive distributor than Klef.

It can and should work as long as they don’t revert to more reliance on shots from the point, etc. Yes, its an option and should be used to create even more issues for the defence but it shouldn’t be a primary focus of the PP.

defmn

Harpers Hair: The cap implications are pretty easy to work around in this case because Gallagher’s cap hit is so low.

You have correctly identified acquisition cost as the real issue.

If reports are true that negotiations between Gallagher and the Habs have been acrimonious and have broken off, Montreal might be very motivated to move him since they have just acquired two right wingers who would likely slot above him the lineup.

I wonder if Jake Virtanen and a pick would get it done.

It might get it done but Montreal has the same problem that Vancouver has.

No idea what the arbitration award will be and cap is too tight to be guessing.

OriginalPouzar

Dell to the Leafs for $800K.

I can’t imagine he wouldn’t sign for that to be #2 on the Oilers as oppossed to #3 on the Leafs.

Seems Holland had no interest.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: He’d be a great add on a value contract – acquisition cost, of course, we don’t know and we don’t know if it would be a one-year rental, etc.).

What are the ramifications of these buyouts, adding some pain to 2021/22.

The buyouts would add apx $2M of dead cap to the following current situation:

Apx $27M of cap space next year with current commitments but that’s with a roster of 13 so 10 players to add (for a standard roster) including, of course, Petersson and Hughes but also an Edler replacement (may be internal) and Demko.

Of course the two big ones will cost plenty but there does seem to be some wiggle room for next year (on a quick review).

Edler may be replaced on the roster with the likes of Rathborne/Juolevi.

A few of the forwards (Pearson, Sutter) potentially replaced by Hoglander and Podkolzin

—————

Note, the numbers that doesn’t take in to account the implication of the Gallagher acquisition and buyout on next years cap.

The cap implications are pretty easy to work around in this case because Gallagher’s cap hit is so low.

You have correctly identified acquisition cost as the real issue.

If reports are true that negotiations between Gallagher and the Habs have been acrimonious and have broken off, Montreal might be very motivated to move him since they have just acquired two right wingers who would likely slot above him the lineup.

I wonder if Jake Virtanen and a pick would get it done.

defmn

Brogan Rafferty’s Uncle Steve: I am not a doctor but my partner has arthritis. I think surgery is more a bandaid solution to repair soft tissue/joints that has been damaged from prolonged arthritic inflammation and from overuse of the inflamed area. I could be wrong. It also likely depends on the type of arthritis.

Thanks for that.

Harpers Hair

Indy:
Where the f**k isBendelsen???
John Fogerty,..man. Thanks LT
Enjoy your day Bruce.

Ran off to Bali with bookje.

Harpers Hair

John Chambers:
Georgexs,

Interesting point.

There’s undoubtedly a correlation between QualComp and QualTeam, as those D probably play with top-line players against other top-line players, and play with bottom-6’ers against other bottom-6.

And then there are players like Matt Benning who don’t look anything special but outscore the competition…

In the end there are too many moving parts in hockey to have any single stat explain anything conclusively.

This is the correct answer.

And, of course, you have to see what the TOI was against those opposing cohorts.