Ken Holland can go to training camp with the roster as it currently stands and have competition in the uncertain spots. There is room to add on the 50-man list and I do think a right-wing will be dealt for a left-wing. There are some great value contracts out there, one imagines the team at least ponders on or two additions. The next two moves will likely be signing RFA’s Ethan Bear and William Lagesson. The weekend’s work gives us our first chance to construct next year’s roster and estimate the numbers. Let’s go.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
July 8, 2019
On the date above, I wrote the following:
Looking long and hard for volume shooters to elevate to a skill line is damned difficult for the current Oilers. Tyler Benson (2.54 shots per game in the AHL), Joakim Nygard (2.94 shots per game in the SHL) and Sam Gagner (8.13 five-on-five shots per 60) are candidates for feature roles, but it’s a moving target for this Oilers team. He’s my first attempt at RE for 2019-20, understanding changes will come.
Leon Draisaitl [41]—Connor McDavid [44]—Zack Kassian [13]
Milan Lucic [9]—RNH [23]—Alex Chiasson [12]
Markus Granlund [11]—Gaetan Haas [7]—Joakim Nygard [10]
Jujhar Khaira [7]—Colby Cave [4]—Sam Gagner [10]
Tomas Jurco [7]—Cooper Marody [4]
Oscar Klefbom [8]—Adam Larsson [3]
Darnell Nurse [8]—Kris Russell [2]
Caleb Jones [2]—Matt Benning [5]
Brandon Manning [0]
Mikko Koskinen [.912]—Mike Smith [.905]
My estimate has Edmonton scoring 230 goals, allowing 252. That’s a massive year over year improvement, most of it defensively. In 2018-19, the Oilers were 229-271 (-42) and my initial 2019-20 RE has the team -22, owing mostly to a massive improvement in goals against (+19 season over season). How will they get it done? I’m giving a lot of credit to Dave Tippett and shot suppression. In the Coyotes final season before Tippett, the team allowed 2591 shots. The following year? 2427. He also increased shots for by 200, but the Oilers currently employ a group who are unlikely to take full advantage. We’ll see what the summer brings in terms of roster improvement.
As it turns out, the Oilers in 2019-20 did better than my 230-252 estimate, going 223-215 +8 in 71 games. The shots for and against don’t rhyme because of fewer games, but if I pump up the 2019-20 season to 82 games, we can get a reasonable idea about whether Tippett managed any kind of shot suppression. Remember, in 2018-19, the totals were 2392-2599 (-207 shots). This year, extrapolating 71 games to 82, the numbers would be 2425-2626 (-201 shots). So why did they improve? Part of it is in save percentage, improved from .896 to .905. Part of it is special teams. How will things look in 2020-21? Here’s my first look at RE.
RE 2020-21 FIRST BLUSH
Tyler Ennis [16]—Connor McDavid [38]—Zack Kassian [15]
RNH [25]—Leon Draisaitl [42]—Kailer Yamamoto [20]
James Neal [11]—Kyle Turris [14]—Jesse Puljujarvi [10]
Alex Chiasson [8]—Jujhar Khaira [5]—Josh Achibald [7]
Joakim Nygard [4]—Gaetan Haas [5]
Darnell Nurse [7]—Ethan Bear [5]
Caleb Jones [5]—Adam Larsson [2]
Kris Russell [1]—Tyson Barrie [14]
William Lagesson [0]
Mikko Koskinen [.918]—Mike Smith [.898]
That gives us (based on a slight increase in shots for and against) a goal differential of 254-246, +8. That is identical to the +8 differential of a year ago. I don’t think this team is better, and the kids who are going to be regulars (Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear) have a wide range of possible outcomes to their seasons. I think this is a playoff team, but Vegas has nothing to worry about, Calgary has improved and I’m sure Vancouver has plans, too.
If you’re playing along at home, no I don’t hate anyone on the list and yes there will be more players added to my final RE. This is the first blush, and Tyler Benson’s minutes are represented by Nygard’s presence, etc.
IS HOLLAND DONE?
Of course not. We’ll see a trade and probably a waiver pickup somewhere in the preseason. For the second year in a row, Holland is leaving enormous opportunities for the youth of today to break on through. I didn’t expect it a year after clearing the deck for Bear, Jones and Lagesson, plus recalling Yamamoto over making a trade after Christmas. Ken Holland’s answers are coming from Bakersfield, friends.
What are you questioning? If free agency contracts have dropped or if we should buy out Neil next year.
You are right and wrong. There are unequivocally 62 top pairing defensemen in the NHL. It does not necessarily mean that every team has 2 of them though. Defining who is and who is not a top pairing defenseman is purely based on opinion. Take a poll of 100 knowledgeable hockey people asking them who are the 62 top pairing defensemen in the league and you would get a list of more than 62 defensemen. It’s opinion, but some players will be on every list. Darnell Nurse may be on 20 of the lists, while Victor Hedman would certainly be on everyone’s list.
In the same sense, there are 31 first line centremen in the league. It doesn’t mean every team has one.
The Oilers may not have one single top pairing D on this roster. You could make an argument for Nurse or Klefbom in either direction. What is a certainty however, is that the Oilers are fortunate enoguh to have 2 of the 31 first line centrement in the league.
But you are correct, the terms “top pairing D” or “number 1 centre” are useless.
I’m not sure that ‘hockey players’ ought to follow a normal distribution. Even if they do, I expect the meaty part of the bell curve falls outside the NHL.
If we’re seeing only one extreme of the curve then the top 90 forwards in the NHL is a fully reasonable definition of top line forwards, I think.
That is only a reasonable definition in the most mechanical of senses, one which does not reflect what happens on the ice, or the usage of the term in any meaningful way.
Likewise, calling the top 90 forwards in the league, “first line forwards” makes nonsense of the term.
Now, I think the terms are meaningless to begin with, however if people insist on using the term it should reflect some kind of bell curve of distribution. It makes much more sense to use a criteria that leaves you with more third line players in the league than first line players.
This also leaves you with a large number of 4th line players with significant overlap with the AHL. There is no reason to pay more than 1 M for a 4th line player when there are dozens of players in the AHL just as good.
There are going to be even better players available next year. The Oilers will be in a better place to make the correct decisions for the team moving forward. They will also have more money available without having to sacrifice the future. Timing is everything!
Have you really thought this through? Asking for a friend.
Keep dreaming in technicolor!
I’ve been arguing for weeks that we should buy out Neil. We knew this round of free agency would be different than anything we’ve seen before. On the positive side, it won’t be changing in the near future. We can buy him out next year too.
I took his putting Nuge with McDavid vs Chicago as a response to the Hawks taking it to McDavid in their regular season games.
I’d forgotten Ennis had been put with Draisaitl (and Nuge with McDavid) even before the shutdown. Still, that could have been ‘we’re gearing up for the playoffs in another few weeks here, I should get these new guys (Ennis, AA) familiar with all their potential linemates in case the need arises later’.
We can’t know Tippett’s motivation but tinkering with lines and getting the deadline additions comfortable with more of your team is good business. As is giving McDavid extra help with a matchup he lost cleanly during the season.
Could also have been Dave’s use of spreadsheets more generally. I’m not terribly concerned on that one. (If a spreadsheet told Dave to start Mike Smith in game 1, well then I’d be concerned again).
What happened to all the posters who said it would be a huge mistake to buyout Neal?
Suddenly everyone thinks it was a good idea?
If the Oilers wanted the money to be players in this down market they should have done it. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The only reason not to do it is because this coming season may be completely fucked up anyways.
I’ve posted about this before, Podkolsin seems never to have put up boxcars to match the scouting reports. I think his offense is just shy for a top 10 pick.
Maybe the production catches up to the tools at some point but I don’t see any examples of high end offense even in the small sample tournaments. At least Holloway posted big numbers in his draft -1 (and slightly better offense at the U18s).
I’m way late to the party, and if Ennis-Draisaitl-Yamamoto can keep up what they were doing then zero question Nuge-McDavid-X makes great sense.
I’m not seeing how McDavid’s 2nd half performance was the worst of his career though. He was 21GF-20GA in 23 games. +1.
McDavid **should** be better than that but that’s who he’s been the past 2 seasons: +2 in 78 games in 18-19 and +3 in the first 41 games of 19-20. And those 119 games as a +5 player came playing with Draisaitl. I don’t see how we can blame McDavid only being +1 on middling wingers.
I actually think McDavid did quite well without any help in the 2nd half. If you can give him Nuge that’s great too obviously, but I’d argue McDavid’s outscoring ability barely suffered by playing him with neither of Nuge or Draisaitl. And while you’re correct that Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto won’t score 75+ GF going forward i believe it’s literally the first time Draisaitl has managed to outscore without McDavid (maybe he and Hall did way back, but he sure hasn’t done that for any extended period since then).
I’ll also add, among the 16 skaters that McDavid played 60 5v5 minutes with this season, the guy he had with the best xGF% was Neal. And in more than 200 minutes.
I know it’s not an acceptable thing to say, but I really do believe Neal would most probably have better results if he were to find himself on McDavid’s wing again.
You don’t think top pairing meaning top 62 could make sense? #1D meaning top 31? Even if they’re not equally distributed, surely that would also be a reasonable definition.
If the Oilers bought out Neil, the extra cap space would have covered almost 100% of Toffoli’s contract. I am no fan of free agent signings, but we knew this world be a very different year.
Oh wait, duh, Vegas isn’t part of the Seattle Expansion draft (although the premise stands – players with NTCs to not have to be protected, only players with NMCs – it seems many are unaware of the nuance).
Yeah, KH should have pulled the trigger when he had the chance. I would do it next off-season in a heartbeat.
No trade clauses do not mandate protection in the expansion draft (they only apply to trades). No Movement Clauses mandate protection.
Obviously they will expose MAF and protect Lehner.
Hey I’ve been on the front of the buy him out wagon, but I don’t get to make that decision
At least the leagues cap situation is only going to get tighter next year
A few teams may get lucky to lose a player with a 4-5 mil cap hit in the expansion draft
We will be sitting on over 20 mil cap space in a year and that’s if we give Nuge 7 per
I believe that is right. Even if it isn’t, players with NTC don’t have to be protected so they could simply protect Lehner and expose Fleury.
The Oilers can no longer execute a buyout.
Only teams that are going to player elected arbitration can use the second buyout window.
I believe Vegas is exempt from having to give up a player in the expansion draft.
leadfarmer,
Yes, but not every player that’s available in this flat cap world has a NTC. Not only that, but late UFA market is going to present some excellent value that 3.9mil extra cap space would be PERFECT for.
With Vegas saying they are keeping Fleury this season, if they are unable to offload him next offseason what can they do in the expansion draft? Both Fleury and Lehner have modified no trade clauses (Fleury’s is bigger). What is the outcome there?
It’s not that hard in today’s flat cap world to turn a 10 team no trade into a one team wish list
I was on the buyout bandwagon too. That $3.8M this off-season is more than twice as valuable as the $1.9M dead cap 4-6 years from now.
I would do whatever it takes to land Cirelli.
That Schmidt trade is an example of why Neal should’ve been bought out this year of all years. Amazed no one out of the division matched that offer.
Yeah, for sure. I figured that Hart Trophy meant nothing to him. It’s probably collecting dust in a cardboard box in a storage container somewhere out by Scarborough.
Damn – Schmidt better not delay Rafferty’s inexorable era of domination
“The year that I had him as a head coach was probably my most successful year, even though it was a shortened season, other than my MVP year.”
Well, I consider that basically agreeing with me.
I heard the Oilers replaced Mike Smith with a year older Mike Smith.
Oh the humanity!
I’d would guess most of it.
Ok, I’ll bite. “Legit #1D” is a term lacking definition, so I’ll ask where would you rank him?
To me, legit #1 D means top 15 in the league. Top pairing means top 30. Those are the only definitions that make sense.
In any event, I have a hard time believing Schmidt is top 15, he might be in the conversation for top 30. Maybe.
Harpers Hair,
Canucks got better today and in the future. Great move by the dys as much as I don’t like admitting it. Healthy Klefbom could be part of a number 1 pair on any team, downplaying the Oiler players doesn’t add to your point it just reinforces your biases and makes others read all your posts with a grain (or block) of salt.
Harpers Hair,
How much of that 20 Million do you think Sneaky Pete and Huggy Bear will eat up?
When did Nate Schmidt become so good?
Before or after Vegas?
“top 4”.
Heh.
He’s a legit #1D who plays and wins against elites.
With Hughes, he will be part of an elite top pairing.
Worth noting, the Oilers don’t have even one D who would be considered a top pairing D on a good team.
Next season, the Canucks have $20 million coming off the cap and could reap even more if they buy out Eriksson and Beagle.
If you’re worrying about paying a top pairing D $5.95 million, you’re doing it wrong.
Darnell Nurse makes almost the same amount and he’s no top pairing D.
I’m finding it extremely hard to figure out how Tampa is going to get out of cap hell.
They have $2.9M to sign 5 players including Sergachev and Cirelli. Even if they trade them away for picks, they will still only have $2.9M to sign 7 players. They have to trade away quite a lot of cap away and the only players not on a NTC/NMC that are signed for more than $1.8M are Point ($6.75M) and Vasilevskiy ($9.5M). Both of which I’m sure they do not want to part with.
That’s a pretty big conundrum.
The Canucks just got better.
Nate Schmidt is a good top 4 d-man who plays a shit-ton against elites, plays special teams and helps offence.
On the other hand, his contract, big money for his 30s, when the cap isn’t going up over $82.5M for 4-5 years (likely) and with some big players to sign next off-season, make it arguable if it was a “good move”.
Its weighing the current benefit vs. the potential future issues the contract creates.
Today, the Canucks are better than they were yesterday.
Under current circumstances, not being tied to long term contracts is a huge advantage.
If they were going to upgrade in goal that likely would have happened already and Reinhart won’t cost a fortune.
You’ve posted this twice without stating which situations you think Barrie will mainly be deployed?
They have Olofsson and Reinhart as RFA’s, and Cozens ready to break in.
They need to trade a rightie D for a leftie D.
Still need to sign Reinhart and need a goaler upgrade and only have a year left on Dahlin
And don’t have a single defenseman signed 2 years
So other than another 1 year contract to a guy like Hoffman. Don’t see many options
After signing Hall, the Sabres still have $13.6 million in cap space and have 8 D on their roster.
They are in a prime position to move a RD (Ristolainen?) and pick up another impact forward or upgrade on LD.
Sounds right. The list of teams with room to take on cap is shrinking pretty quickly now.
Predictions of internal caps for a lot of teams don’t appear to be coming true.
Buffalo should be all over that.
First rounder for Patrick Kane please.?
I’m still waiting for Yzerman to create a masterpiece
Like Zadina for Sergachev
Scouting and analytics are very different beasts.
Colorado also has scouts but, as far as I know, the Oilers don’t even have an analytics department.
Colorado has two outstanding “nerds”.
Not speaking to the Mike Smith demotion point but, even if there is no AHL (and I think they will be trying to start up in some sort of manner along with the NHL, with the help of the NHL), there will be some sort of “taxi squad” where the “AHL assignments” are with the team and practicing with the team, etc. but not on the roster.
Definitely not ideal for the likes of Bouchard, Benson, McLeod, etc. but they need to have players available for “call-up”.
Ghostofsson does not sound like a very good defenseman