One of the best things about living in Edmonton is seeing the passion of the fan base up close and personal. Yesterday reminded me of the McDavid draft/Reinhart trade.
Why? Oilers fans were rockin’ the casbah when Tyson Barrie signed, walking on sunshine. When Mike Smith signed, the old rugged cross played across the miles. Edmonton loves the Oilers. If you’re the general manager, the fans are behind you, win or tie!
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
50-MAN ROSTER (45)
This isn’t the team I thought Holland would construct at the beginning of free agency. Kyle Turris brings more offense at No. 3 center but he’s also less of a checker/penalty killer. Tyson Barrie is more of an offensive defenseman than I thought we’d see. Mike Smith is not the goaltender I thought we’d see based on Holland’s recent comments.
Back in August, Ken Holland was interviewed by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic and talked about his goal to improve the team:
- Holland: “I’m about goal differential. You don’t have to score as much if you give up less. But if you give up a lot, you’ve gotta score more. Everybody wants to focus on goals and secondary scoring. Certainly, those are areas we’d like to improve upon. How do we improve our differential compared to the other 30 teams? Those are the things we’ve gotta figure out.“
I think the Oilers are going to score more goals, and probably give up more too.
In 2018-19, the average NHL team scored and allowed 244 goals. Edmonton scored 229, off the pace but in the range. However, the team’s goals against total was 271, making the goal differential -42.
In 2019-20, the average NHL team scored and allowed 208 goals. Edmonton played an extra game, so if you take away one game the Oilers landed at 220-212, +8. That’s a lot of improvement in one season.
I think the Oilers are going to score more often in the coming season. I think the passes from defense to offense are going to be outstanding. I think the Oilers are going to be adding a goalie at some point in 2020-21.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
This October doesn’t resemble any in my lifetime. I’ll never forget 2020, it has been memorable from beginning to end. My Dad used to tell me stories about the Depression and the Second World War, and polio and how it impacted his family randomly. I didn’t have a life event to compare, but Covid-19 changed all of that in an instant.
About a month ago, my daughter didn’t feel well and went to the doctor, who was alarmed at her breathing. We rushed her to the Sturgeon, where she stayed for several days making sure she didn’t have the virus (it was pneumonia). She’s fine and back working, but it scared the living hell out of me. I will never forget it. That night, we had my wife’s brother and friend over, and I burned four steaks so badly the fire department had to rush over! I’m kidding, but that poor cow deserved better.
We’re all being extra careful and there’s a spike in cases so wear your masks, wash your hands and if they call you for choir practice don’t answer your phone. I’m thankful for this group who shows up at my blog, thankful for my family and my dog and for an economy that is fighting hard to gain back what was lost.
I think that’s the lesson of 2020. We’re not going to be able to maintain life as it was before, but if we hold our families close, stay safe, recognize the things that are important and let everything else go, it might be a long overdue reset for all of us. If we reach out to the homeless, the food bank and those in need, maybe there’s some good that can come out of this difficult time. Happy Thanksgiving!
LOWETIDE VERSUS THE MACHINE!
Every year, after the draft, I take my list and compare it to the Oilers draft. I pick the top player still available on my list at each stop, and compare that player to the one Edmonton chose. My math list wins some and loses some, but it’s an interesting exercise.
The 2015 draft: Oilers rock it!
Oilers scouts hit three times after the third round on a weekend when picks were being pulled out from under them every hour on the hour. My final four picks are not matriculating. Already a win for the Oilers, this race is over.
The 2016 draft: DeBrincat the difference
Edmonton’s draft looked stalled not long ago, but the return of Jesse Puljujarvi will help and Benson may carve out a role in the next two seasons. My list wins because DeBrincat. I think the Oilers should value math more than they do, and I expect the Oilers consider math a valuable tool but they don’t use it as much as they should use it. Or at least that was the case in 2016.
The 2017 draft: Yamamoto pick key for Oilers
Edmonton wins the 2017 race, courtesy a truly inspired choice in the first round. Oilers’ Samorukov looks like he’ll add to the haul in the coming years and several others are trying to gain traction. From my list, Tolvanen is having a good start in the KHL but he didn’t play in the NHL at all last year. Scott Reedy is matriculating and we’ll see. Edmonton had a much better draft than my model in 2017, I think that’s clear now.
The 2018 draft: Too soon to know
This is going to be a helluva race, perhaps the most interesting in the group. Bouchard, McLeod, Rodrigue and Kesselring are all worth of following, that’s a solid Edmonton list and I do think two NHL players from that group is reasonable. My list is headlined by Ty Smith, I think he is a better prospect than Bouchard but we’ll see how it plays out. Samuel Fagemo wasn’t drafted in 2018 but he’s a fine prospect. Cannot wait to see how this plays out.
The 2019 draft: Broberg may tip the scales
Broberg appears to be improving by the day, I think this season might be his final one outside the NHL. Lavoie and Konovalov are also prominent and pushing. My list features Kaliyev, who remains a fantastic pure scorer, Robertson who is a nice two-way defender, and scoring winger Blake Murray. I think Edmonton has the edge here.
The 2020 draft: Brand new
This is a brand new draft so there isn’t much to say yet. I like my list a ton but everyone says that. I will say this about the Oilers draft: If you look at the skill drafted by Edmonton, and compare it to the 2012 list, it’s very clear the mathletes have had an impact on the industry.
A player is measured by their performance in each of the 3 phases.
Getting Goals and preventing Goals is the only way to win.
For Dmen preventing GA is the largest influence they can have when you look at all players on the ice.
Fwds at even and on PP the largest influence is getting goals.
FWDS on Penalty kill the largest influences is reducing goals.
The top 20 Dmen can have top 6 fwd looking evp.
But with their large even minutes their production per 60 rates are much lower standard.
Looking at evg/60; Evp/60 skater ranks Last 2 yrs, minimum ( 830 evmin 217 D, 370 fwds
Drai #16 sk 1.27 evg/60; #8 sk 3.04 evp/60
Mcd #17 sk 1.26 evg/60; #4 sk 3.12 evp/60
Ennis #84 .97 evg/60; #168 1.85 evg/609
Yamamotto #100 .93 evg/60; #63 2.33 evp/60
RNH #101 .92 evg/60; #101 2.09 evp/60
Archibald #111 .90 evg/60; #225 1.59 evp/60
Kassian #115 .89 evg/60; #175 1.81 evp/60
We have 7 forwards who are all top 4 Fwd (124 fwd) in evg/60
Xxx – Mcdavid – Kassian
Xxx – Drai – Yamamotto
Xxx – TNH – archibald
JP 19 yr season (17-18) he had a better evg/gm rate than M. Tkachuk, 19 yr season (16/17)
.73 evg/60 #168 ( top 6 fwd)
Next yr mgmt gave 9 other fwds more even minutes with Mcdavid,
T. Johnson #17 1.26; #139 1.94
A.A. # 36 1.06; #144 1.52
Caggulia #84 .97; #183 1.7
Hall #121 .86 ; #64 2.30
Strome #133 .84 evg/60; #127 1.97 evg/60
When we look at Players best evg and all WOWY.
Mcdavid
w/ Archibald 1.66 evg/60; 3.19 evp/60
W/ RNH 2.11 evg/60; 2.81 evp/60
w/ Kassian 1.15 evg/60; 2.84 evp/60
W/ Drai .98 evg/60; 2.74 evp/60
Drai
w/ RNH 1.64/60; 4.03 evp/60
W/ Yam 1.35/60; 3.61 evp/60
w/ Kassian 1.40/60; 3.39 evp/60
W/ Mcdavid 1.27/60; 3.34 evp/60
RNH
w/ yam 1.77/60; 4.03 evp/60; FOZS 54.25%
w/ Drai 1.51/60; 3.65 evp/60; FOZS 55.26%
w/ Mcdavid .71/60; 3.51 evp/60; FOZS 88.00%
Kassian
W/ Mcdavid 1.24 /60; 2.66 evp/60; FOZS 67.69%
w/ Archibald .95/60; 2.84 evp/60; FOZS 60.71%
w/ Drai .94/60; 2.46 evp/60; FOZS 61.90%
w/ RNH .48/60; 2.41 evp/60; FOZS 74.42%
Archibald
w/ Mcdavid 1.60/60; 3.19 evp/60; FOZS 73.68%
w/ Kassian .95/60; 2.85 evp/60; FOZS 62.96%
w/ Sheahan .74/60; 1.49 evp/60; FOZS 32.68%
It is clear that Khaira, Archibald and Sheahan ate a lot of DZ FO, but Archibalsvseason average looked softer with 88% OZ FO% with Mcdavid.
4 – Centers: Mcd, Drai, RNH, Turris Put does RNH roll more as a Wing.
4 – top 6 fwd evg/60 wingers Yamamotto, Kassian, Ennis, Archibald
1 – Returning Prospect
Right now I am having 10 a.m. to 7 a.m. awake phase since about 2015.
Which is about 1-2 yrs after they think I had the cancer.
4 coin flips is 4 actions.
How many human machine actions does a player have in a shift?
How many shifts in a game.
What are the outcomes of each action.
When I was killing time watching lots of human machine action outcomes on video from 10pm to 4a.m. From 05-06 to 15-16.
Trends become apparent.
Sample size is a low resolution scientific term.
Rickisbox and Open shot theories are what was used to identify 26 yrs of at least 3 of the top Champ core roster theory teams making final 4.
Some unusual occurance prevents a top Cup Roster team from making the final 4
(16-17) 2 failed goalie interference calls cost a team a final 4 and likely shot at the cup.
(18-19) 4 goals from a phantom Major Cost a team a shot at 3 consecutive yrs of final 4.
Talbot, Holtby, Murray have all been top 5 open shot save% goalies.
All Total shot save% tells you is the likely xSave% baseline the teams hD Opensh defence gave the goalies.
Barrie and Nurse have been quality even off Dmen
Barrie #16D 16 evg #10 dman 61 evp
NuRose #23 D 14 evg #16 D 59 evp
But with the extensive EVTOI it is sub standard skater evg/60 and evp/60
These 2 must be played apart.
Larsson is a top 1st comp def dman to his side.
Russell can anchor any 2nd comp def Dpair
Nurse – Larsson
Russel – Barrie
Xxx – Bear
Hainsey is a strong def cover for Rovers.
OTT 2.46 evga/60,
#1 min Chabot (Rover) 3.16; together 2.53
#3 min Goulebouf 3.19; together 1.20
2yrs in Toronto:
TOR 2.66 evga/60;
#1 min Partner Rielly 3.16; together 2.50
# 3 min partner Gardiner 2.37; Together 2.14
PIT 1.87 evga/60
#1min Partner Doumolin 2.63, together 1.42
A repetative theme with Hainsey
Just would like him as a safety! For bear.
Harpers Hair,
Hahaha the old 4 game sample size. This isn’t how statistics works. Your error bars would be *literally* off the charts.
If you flipped a coin 4 times and they all came up heads would you conclude that coin flips always come up heads?
I had to add 4+3 to post my last comment and got the wrong answer. I’m just happy my phone has a calculator.
In what alternative universe is a $1.5 mill, one year contract the worst signing of the season? I’m sure Willis would want to walk back that statement. The Talbot, Holtby, Murray and Crawford signings all have the potential to inflict serious damage to their teams.
I wouldn’t agree it’s the worst signing of free agency. But we do all agree Smith isn’t good. I said yesterday I wouldn’t have re-signed him.
Reasons for giving him more than league min could include his 42-28-8 record over the past 2 seasons. If you can believe it that’s a better win% than Demko or Markstrom, and only a hair worse than Holtby had on the #3 team in the league.
But as I said, I still wouldn’t have done it.
I entered the conversation after these comments:
I pointed out that Forsberg is not in fact awful for a #3 goalie (and that his SV% was in line with Holtby’s over the past couple of seasons).
Also that it was a bit like the pot calling the kettle black for a Canucks follower to cry horror over the Oilers goaltending situation:
What if (top 10 SV%) Koskinen were to get injured?? Well, then the Canucks *might* have better goaltending than the Oilers.
Across the 2 most recent seasons the Oilers #3 has essentially the same SV% as the guy the Canucks just signed to be their starter. The #3 also played more NHL games than the Canucks 2nd goalie.
If we’re talking about poor decisions, what reason could the Canucks possibly have for paying a guy with a worse SV% than Smith 3 times as much for twice as long? My goodness.
Young players don’t develop in a straight line, though. I like Demko and believe he’ll improve a lot from .905SP in 2019-20, but his four brilliant playoff games don’t make him Ken Dryden. Canucks made the correct decision walking Markstrom, Holtby is an interesting replacement.
I don’t recall a bunch of Krueger deniers. There were some who pointed out he got too much credit for the power play but the blog as a whole was pro-Ralph.
Pro tip:
Young players get better.
Old players don’t.
The Sabres currently have $13,645,000 in free cap space.
That includes 9 D of which 5 are RHD.
They can acquire pretty much anyone they want.
This is nonsense.
Holtby’s save percentage in the last three seasons:
.907
.911
.897
Koskinen’s save percentage in the last three seasons:
Did not play.
.906
.917
In the playoffs this season:
Holtby .906 GAA 2.49
Koskinen .889 GAA 3.16
Smith .783 GAA 11.31
So, what we see is Koskinen had one decent seasons but absolutely shit the bed when the games matter most.
And, for the record, Demko was .985 GAA 0.64
Pete DeBoer was quoted after the loss to the Stars saying he believed the major reason his team lost was that Demko was still in their heads.
You might want to bet on that Oiler duo…but I certainly wouldn’t.
Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
This might be the worst signing of free agency.
Leaning on a 38-year-old who has spent the past two seasons hovering around the .900 SV% mark is a bad idea.
Having made that poor decision, what reason could a team possibly have for paying him more than the league minimum?
When you had Markstrom in front the pressure is off. 2nd time around the NHL is often the tell. Shooters will know and Demko will crater.
What the hell is a “Krueger denier”?
Moving Chiasson has to be Holland’s primary move right now – even if its just for some cushion (propping R. Russell to the 5RW.
Russell is the tweener and ahead of him are 5 legit NHL RW’s – Yamamoto, Puljuajarvi, Kassian, Archibald, Chiasson.
The Oilers don’t have the luxury of having an expensive 5RW in the press box.
Although……. doesn’t Jesse have a pre-draft history of playing his off wing?????
All you Krueger deniers are going to be surprised.
$2M.
I think Dahlin is about to pop – his rookie and sophomore years were off the charts for a teenage d-man.
Turns out all the talk he was doing in the media about wanting to win first and foremost wasn’t what it seemed.
Just max dollars, that’s what is truly important.
No commitment from either side, just a head scratcher all around
He’s definitely got a better shot at some more draft lottery magic with the Sabres.
I’d certainly bet on Holtby over Smith too but it’s apples to oranges. Holtby is being paid 3 times as much as Smith. And you’re not honestly suggesting Benning paid Holtby $4.3M to be the backup are you? It’s an absurd suggestion.
I acknowledged Demko is a better backup than Smith. And yeah, he had 4 good playoff games. Benning spending $4M+ on a “backup” in his only notable FA move tells you how he feels about Demko.
Koskinen’s been clearly superior to all of them. And in Forsberg the Oilers actually do have a #3 who’s had comparable recent results to Holtby and Smith, and more NHL experience than Demko.
Those poor Oilers though, in such a tough spot with their goaltending.
Maybe Hall has some form of Stockholm Syndrome; he only knows losing teams and feels comfortable in that setting…..
QO was $2M. Barrie signed for $3.75M.
Sounds like Granlund will probably sign with Cbus
Can someone tell me what Bennings QO would have been and compare it to what we signed Barrie for?
Sabres don’t have the cap space for Kane
They still have to sign Reinhart and need a goalie
He’s a Cup winner so he gets an overpriced contract. Matt Murray is a Cup winner so he gets an overpriced contract. GM’s love that stuff.
Most family doctors will do a telephone appointment and provide prescriptions over the phone. Stay home and continue to isolate. Strep throat is often diagnosed based on the appearance of white striations on the anterior tonsils (the tissue on either side of the throat); the tonsils might be swollen and look like a couple of meatballs.
I think there are some opportunities for modest upgrades in LD and LW, but I don’t think they could make an upgrade for both if the expected LTIR is going to be ~3-4M.
I hope KH is looking for a new home for Chiasson. I would also like to see KRusty moved to free up some cap space and find a cheaper alternative in the 5-7 D range, but I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that is going to happen.
Holtby has had three poor season in a row culminating in wishing he could bouce back to Anton Forsberg levels this past season.
Yup, in there he won a Stanley Cup – he bounced back from a cliff season where he lost his starter’s job (didn’t start game 1 of the playoffs) and was solid in the playoffs.
He then found that cliff and another for the following two years – if anything it shows the dangers of putting too much in to a playoff sample size – even 20 plus games, let alone 4….
I’m not liking the Sabres chances at much more than making the playoffs, which will mean no deadline deal.
Their roster looks better, but until and unless Dahlin emerges as a Norris type I’m don’t see final 4.
They trade Pat Kane and their fan base will go nuts. I don’t see that happening at all.
You’re ignoring playoff save percentage which, of course, counts even more than regular season.
Holtby certainly had an off year but was well above that save percentage the past two seasons which of course included a Stanley Cup win.
No guarantee he’ll recover but I’d sure bet on him at 31 years of age rather than a 39 year old who is under .900 in his last 81 starts.
Benning is dithering away
Last year all strengths GSAA per natural stat trick
Holtby -17
Demko -4
Mike Smith -8
Koskinen +9
Are or were they in on Nate Schmidt?
What is a team that has Kuemper Raanta and Hill wanting Demko for??
I think you need new sources
Like the Holtby signing that was completely off your sources radar
David Pagnotta
@TheFourthPeriod
·
1h
So… in other news (some updates):
• CHI has been in the market for a mid-6 F
• PHI has been exploring the D market
• VAN has reached out to Hamonic, Vatanen, Gustafsson
• NAS is believed to be among the teams in mix for Hoffman
• Multiple teams eyeing Melker Karlsson
I’m just using simple old SV%.
Koskinen .917
Smith .902
Forsberg .897 (3GP, but .908 in 35GP last season)
Holtby .897
Demko .905
DiPietro .857 (1GP, and .708 in his only other NHL appearance)
The only canard here is that Holtby is the backup.
Agreed. Exceptional opportunities this off season.
Canucks looking at Gustafson
Yes please sign him to a long long contract
Yep.
The pursuit of OEL paralyzed him and has cost his team.
He had hoped he could move Eriksson in the deal but the Coyotes were insisting that Demko be included in the deal and Benning wouldn’t budge.
While he shouldn’t have gone max on Markstrom or Tanev like Calgary did, the Canucks are demonstrably weaker than last season.
He has a small window to redeem himself somewhat because they are going to arbitration with Virtanen so they can execute some buyouts (likely Sutter and Baertschi) but other than that, I would think the team will take a step back next season.
Well the post said “pretty much done”. I’d take that (assuming it was Holland’s exact wording) as no more *big* additions.
There’s tons of room for tinkering. I did use a $3M player as an example of how far the LTIR could be pushed but I don’t actually expect that’s likely (the LTIR limitation being the Oilers roster can’t go below 20 players, so only about $3M can be temporarily be assigned on day 1).
Tinkering is what I’m expecting too. Once prices come down, if a player is still out there who’s better than what’s currently on the roster (and can be had for $1.5 or $2M), it seems that Holland has the flexibility to pursue.
I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make a value add or two from the bargain bin from here on out.
Not sure what numbers you’re using to support that canard.
Demko had a better save percentage, has a better career save percentage and had a Quality Start % of .600 while Mike Smith was at .459 and Koskinen was at .515
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020_goalies.html
While Demko is young and still has lots to prove, I would certainly bet on him at 24 years of age rather than a goaltender who will turn 39 next season.
I would suggest he contact the provincial health authority and ask the questions.
Someone needs to tell Benning that free agency started
Looks like he’s still trying to figure out how the hell he was the only one that could get OEL and couldn’t seal the deal
One way to look at Smith in a positive lens is
how many points did the Oilers get in all the games he started?
And how do these points compare with other backups?
Don’t get me wrong. I had hoped for an upgrade here. But now it is what it is. If I was Tippet, I’d tie a bungee cord to Smith so he can only leave the net for up to 4 feet away.
Of note, the Canucks 2nd string goalie, signed for 4 year for over $4M per had worse NHL numbers last year than the Oilers’ awful 3rd stringer – and on a contending team, not a team with the following projected defence:
hughes myers
edler Juolev (wrong side)
Benn rafferty
Rathborne
Not to mention the Canucks starter’s number’s weren’t all that much better and MUCH worse than Koskinen’s