As it stands today, the offseason transaction that has the best chance of delivering the most long-term smack is the Jesse Puljujarvi contract. Dylan Holloway in the first round, Kyle Turris and Tyler Ennis on value deals, and what may come in the days ahead, I think the big Finn is the big deal so far. That could change as early as today.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: Reconsidering Oilers’ offseason in light of Oscar Klefbom injury news
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
50-MAN (43)
Holland told us yesterday the team has no more plans to sign forwards, but I think a trade along the lines of ‘Alex Chiasson for Anders Bjork’ makes sense and brings balance to the wings.
I like both bets yesterday, they’re small but could pay off. Improves depth, gives Dave Tippett some options. He’ll need Haas or other to PK though, and that may mean Haas plays wing on Khaira’s line. Right wing is going to be an adventure next year, someone is going to get the squeeze.
I expect we’ll see a goalie signed today or soon (Thomas Greiss, Les Binkley) and possibly a defenseman (Tyson Barrie, Tom Bladon).
PROJECTED ROSTER
Edmonton has lots of money left, Klefbom goes on LTIR and the team can afford Tyson Barrie and a legit goalie. Or they could trade Zack Kassian for Petr Mrazek.
The roster above, with Klefbom on LTIR, has over $6,500,000 in cap room. It can be done.
I’m not sure the Oilers will get aggressive, because it’s unclear how long Klefbom will be out. Does Holland have a deal in his back pocket? I won’t make predictions but there are players I like.
GOALIES
1 Darcy Kuemper. He’s expensive ($4.5 million for two more seasons) and more expensive (the asset cost is going to hurt) but Edmonton has the cap room this morning and this guy is ideal. I wonder if Holland will reach out.
2 Thomas Greiss. He has a five on five save percentage of .922 (Koskinen finished .924) and at this point Holland might want to spend the extra dollars to get him, mindful of term. If he goes elsewhere it is not a disaster.
3 Anders Nilsson. This would be a trade with Ottawa, his five on five save percentage is .915 and he has one year left at $2.6 million. Former Oilers goalie.
4 Joonas Korpisalo. He has a .926 save percentage and is the best long term goalie bet on the list, but the price would be dear. Korpisalo makes $2.8 million for the next two seasons and then will be UFA.
5 Aaron Dell. He has a five on five percentage of .911, he has been solid if unspectacular in three of the last four seasons.
6 M-A Fleury. Helping out your competition is a damnable idea, so this is a ‘break glass in an emergency only’ option. Getting a good piece as a sweetener and forcing Vegas to retain also good ideas.
7 Petr Mrazek. He’s second-last because his resume isn’t strong and is also inconsistent.
8 Mike Smith. I’ve included him because he’ll be on Holland’s list.
DEFENSE
1 LD MacKenzie Weegar. This would be a trade with Florida and then a signing, but he’s worth it. He has a 53.3 goal share five on five and a 54.5 shot share. He plays 34 percent of his five on five time against elites, 58.40 DFF% and a GA/60 of 1.80. Crazy that he’s even reportedly available.
2 RD Tyson Barrie. He has a 49 percent goal share, 51 percent goal share, played 24 percent of his season five on five against Elites (Puck IQ) and had a poor run against them. I still like him for Edmonton, partly because some of the most recent season seems to be an anomaly based on his own past. He could help the power play.
3 RD Sami Vatanen. He had a 43 percent goal share and a 48.6 percent shot share for a struggling New Jersey Devils team in 2019-20. Puck IQ played 35 percent of his five on five season against elites, and had a 2.59 ga/60 verses elites at five on five.
4 RD Travis Hamonic. He had a 42.9 percent goal share and a 48 percent shot share. He played over 30 percent of his five on five time against elites, and actually had a decent possession number (DFF%: 48.3, with a plus Rel). He had a 3.16 GA/60 against elites, I think he might have been a little unlucky. Oilers only sign him if Adam Larsson is being dealt.
5 LD Erik Gustafsson. He would help the power play and can hold his own as a defenseman (27 percent of his five on five time versus elites), plus his price (cap hit) shouldn’t be overwhelming.
6 LD Slater Koekkoek. When smart people are suggesting a name, it’s worth looking at for sure. Chicago trusted him quite a bit, he played 30.5 of his minutes against elites and was in the black (that’s good) DFF Rel.
PULJUJARVI
Puljujarvi is in a great spot now. Look at that right wing depth chart, ladies. His centers this coming season will be Turris, McDavid and Draisaitl if things are going well, Khaira and Haas if things are crashing.
I know many will disagree, but for me getting this young man back on the roster is the biggest team building piece of this offseason and so far it isn’t close.
If JP emerges as a rambunctious winger who is a pain in the ass for opponents and scores 15 goals a year and plays a solid two-way game? Music!
If he figures out a way to emerge as a 25-goal winger? Better Music!
I know lots of people will pile on Jesse Puljuarvi between now and the season starting and this could turn out wrong, but Puljujarvi is a possible ‘decade solution’ and opposed to being a stopgap. Surely enough people understand this idea.
Yes
Bouchard with a bomb this morning:
https://twitter.com/cmoresport/status/1315294149705379841?s=21
^ meant to be in response to:
“As the guy who presented xAvg for data columns in 3D graphs of Team, Comp & ZS.
ZS start with or without pocession is a greater affect on Corsi results than Team, comp, or ZS.
That is why you need 4 seperate 3D team, comp, and ZS
Team, comp, Bench change ZS with pocession.
Team, comp Bench change ZS without
Team, comp, FO ZS % with pocession
Team, comp, FOZS% without pocession.”
hmm, i’ve found this to be untrue in my research. i’ve found the correlation between corsi/XGF% and on ice strength differential (team strength – opposition strength) is on average about twice as strong as it is between corsi/XGF% and OZ start %…
it varies a lot per player, but most players seem to be more affected by who they’re playing with/against than where they start…
This made my day! Thanks!
RT26,
Bouchard will be Barrie’s replacement when Barrie becomes too expensive (next year). It would be foolish to trade Bouchard.
I think Holland has done a very good job in the shortened off-season. I cringe whenever someone writes, “I wonder what Connor thinks about that?”, as if Connor is some sort of god who must be catered to like the most sensitive infant, and who must approve every move by management.
The problem with the Oilers is that they have not been playing, at all times, like a team, and they have lacked articulate leadership amongst the players. This problem can be corrected if we stop treating individual players as messiahs and start expecting the players to play as a team. All of the players have to recognize their individual deficits–even the best players on the team.
Holland did a remarkable job in bringing Puljujarvi back into the fold, and in acquiring a versatile right-shooting third line centre. The loss of Klefbom is a major blow, but also a major opportunity for Lagesson and perhaps Broberg. Effective deployment of Barrie will give the team another puck-moving defenceman; what he lacks on the defensive side of the puck will be compensated for by his igniting the offence of the rest of the team. Bouchard will have to earn his playing time, which is as it should be. He is close, but he needs to strengthen his defensive game in order to seize a spot on the team. I suspect that he will get his opportunities as other defencemen suffer injuries during the season to come. If he is ready, and he should be, he will take and keep another defenceman’s spot. While I am not a huge fan of Mike Smith on the ice, I think he probably gives the team some leadership in the locker-room, and that is an ingredient that the team requires, so I am at peace with the signing. Holland had to live within a budget; all in all, he did a great job.
Wonder if Florida would trade Weegar for Russell and Bouchard? Sign Weegar for Russell’s money and you’d have
Weegar. Barrie
Nurse. Bear
Jones. Larsson
Pretty good top 6. In a year, if Larsson continues to have back problems, bring in Broberg and move Jones to RD and they are a great third pair
Oh, yes, they will make transactions to get them cap compliant on day 1, if possible.
They need to have a 20 player NHL roster including 2 goalies though.
If a more material goalie was signed, this wouldn’t have been possible as I believe that Kailer is the only guy they could re-assign without waivers at this point. If $4M was spend on a goalie, either Barrie wouldn’t be signed, season LTIR would be used to get cap compliant or material money would need to be moved out another way.
Nurse and Larsson got hammered together in the past two years.
336 min. Gf= 36% .FF =45.6.
I know Nurse and his agent both think he’s a #1d.
Maybe if Tippett plays him with Larsson, he’ll wake up.
Part of the reason?
Scouting and forecheck systems.
Teams learn fast. Neither guy is a threat to make a long pass, so they can cheat.
Sort of like now. Watch Nurse and Bear.
Bear has like less than no time because teams know Nurse can’t move the puck (under pressure with a pass) so they cheat to Bear on their forecheck.
Normally, I’d torch Holland for the Smith signing.
Stylistically, watching players like Smith or Russell makes me cringe.
I look forward to the day I don’t have to watch either.
Russell is sort of an ironic player.
If you’re a slow shaking (can’t skate backwards d) who can’t move the puck, you should at least be big and strong.
If you’re a small d, you should be fast and capable of moving the puck.
Somehow, he manages a clear ledger despite his limitations (small, terrible at moving the puck, and slow)
Smith is also cringeworthy to watch.
Those playing the puck gaffes leave an indelible mark in our memory banks.
The Smith signing was okay because….
He didn’t sign Markstrom.
He didn’t trade for Murray.
He didn’t overpay for average goaltending….
Well, he did overpay for below average goaltending
But the contract length of one year was perfect because it lines up with the end of the Russell contract and the Pouliot buyout cap hit. Also next season we’ll only have one year left on Koskinen’s contract, so there’s more of an opportunity to upgrade our goaltending,
Also we can bury most of the contract…
Okay, I tried my best to stay positive.
I hate the Smith signing. He’s finished.
Too funny.
I hadn’t read the Barrie article by Lowetide at the Athletic until just now.
How can you tell I’ve been reading this blog for over ten years?
We don’t know if Holland is done tweaking the defence, but based on current conditions, I would suggest Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear on the top pair, Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson on the second pair and Barrie on the right side of the third pair with either Kris Russell or William Lagesson, another defence-first blueliner.
I really like the idea of Lagesson – Barrie pairing.
It fits the new mold of the big hair on the ass D / small speedy pick mover pairings that other teams employ with great success… Also a vet to mentor Lagesson.
These pairings are so effective because you have the small fast d for puck retrieval on the dump ins to carry / move out the puck. Also the cycle breaker / crease clearing hair on the ass d.
We’d need a “clean disposition of the Russell contract” or injury for that based upon Tippett’s use of Russell.
I’m not thrilled with the Smith signing, but $1.5 mill makes him an easily replaceable player. Signing someone like Crawford or Holtby to $4 mill for two years is a much bigger risk. If they struggle for whatever reason, you’re stuck with a $4 mill cap hit for two years. With the Smith signing, Holland has left the door open to pursue other options in season. As far as risk management is concerned, it’s a better option than many of the other goalie signings.
Cool. Flexibility. Thanks.
Hmmm.
Yamamoto is the only waiver eligible guy on the roster. But if (IF) the 20 player minimum applies for day 1 cap then you could waive/bury any other players you weren’t worried about losing to waivers (looking at you Chiasson, Neal, Russell(s)).
Is that’s how teams get up against the cap (but compliant) to milk the available LTIR? You hear about paper transactions for waiver eligibles but not this sort of thing generally though.
A quick google search found this on the NHL website
23-man Roster
There may be a maximum of 23 players on each Club’s playing roster at any one time from the commencement of the NHL regular season through the trade deadline. Prior to the start of the season, each Club must submit to the NHL its “Opening Day Playing Roster” which shall be comprised of not more than 23 players. Each Club must have a roster of at least 20 players, composed of 18 skaters and two goaltenders. Players on Injured Reserve do not count in the 23-man limit
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26377#:~:text=Each%20Club%20must%20have%20a,18%20skaters%20and%20two%20goaltenders.
It doesn’t appear to stipulate a minimum on the opening day roster, so yeah, a 22 man roster would work
Oh for sure
I’m pretty sure the minimum roster size during the season is 20
And an edit to this-
I guess it depends on what Bear’s contract looks like – if he’s in the $1M range I guess waiving Chiasson could work
You probably included the part about the chemical castration…?
Could be, I’m not sure. Teams certainly don’t have to run with 23 players through the season though.
What do you mean? Lagesson is Larsson, but a better skater and a better passer… um..
Yeah, he remains a fine enough prospect and #7D possibility. But it’s easy to forget he’s 24. 25 in February. He’s gotta make hay now to have a chance at a career. He’s a year younger than Nurse. More than a year older than Bear and Jones.
If he gets claimed, yeah, sure, you’re laughing
If he clears though, the math doesn’t quite work
You can only bury $1,000,075M of his deal in the AHL, and approx $1.1M of his cap would still count toward the NHL roster
One of my dream stats is battles won/lost. Pucks retrieved is another.
I would love to see this for Russell because I think it is difficult to suss out by memory whether he is defending a lot because the opposition gets over the blue line more frequently, or because once they do, Russell can’t deal with it.
Don’t conflate Lagesson with Bouchard. Please, don’t.
I saw Lagesson play last year. It will take a massive off-season move by him to leapfrog Russell. It’s not impossible, but it is so very unlikely that Heisenberg wouldn’t touch it with a 10 positron pole.
Sure – but instead of sending down Yamamoto put Chaisson on waivers and then send him down when he clears. Of course cross your fingers that he actually gets claimed but that is unlikely.
oh ffs
The above comment was a reply to JPs comment below
That’s a good question – I had to think about that for a minute and do the math
You’re right, the math works
I wonder if there is a league rule that you have to submit a 23 man roster on day 1…that’s interesting
And I agree, I doubt Kenny is done. He could be, but I doubt it
Great discussion tonight, lads. Thanks for putting up with me. And thanks to LT for all the work he puts into this place and providing a forum for our fandom. And a huge thank you to the Oilers and the staff at Rogers for giving us a playoffs this year.
May you all get a little gobble gobble this weekend.
I’m in the camp of:
the reason Russell has to defend so much is he struggles to get the puck moving in the right direction
I love him for his toughness and bravery but I can’t see past the aforementioned deficiency
I am unable to see past this with this player, i have watched it for far too long.
If he is my #6, I swap him in & out of the line up for Lagesson
until I am comfortable that Willy is ready for every day deployment
One last one.
October 10th 2019 Oilers vs. NJ Devils. (SO win)
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-Nuge-Jurco
Kharia-Sheahan-Russell (Archibald)
Nygard-Haas-Granlund
(Cave/Chiasson)
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Persson (Larsson)
Russell-Benning
(Manning)
Koskinen-Smith
The current Oilers:
Ennis-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Neal-Turris-Puljujarvi
Nygard-Haas-Archibald
(Khaira-Chiasson)
Nurse-Bear
Jones-Larsson (Klefbom)
Russell-Barrie
(Lagesson/Bouchard)
Koskinen-Smith
Present day sure looks better to me (and that other team should have made the playoffs).
I’m surprised this hasn’t been talked about more.
Barrie is decent on the PP but he’s even better at generating even strength offense.
Over the last 3 seasons Barrie is 6th among D in 5v5 points. Nurse is 8th (I know, I know, Nurse doesn’t have a clue).
But I think Barrie’s a great add. And I think he’s going to help the forwards score more. Turris too.
Maybe it doesn’t rhyme, but I think this years Oilers are improved. That could just be me though.
This season was the first since Barrie’s been a regular (7 seasons) that he had a negative GF% relative to his team.
He was -2 at 5v5 this year. The only other year he was outscored on ice was 16-17 when Colorado was the 2nd worst team of the last decade (only the Wings this year had a worst points%). Even that year he was better than his teammates in GF/GA.
He is not a tough minutes D but he’s been very much an outscorer for his career (on a team that’s been outscored overall).
Can’t they just send Yamamoto down and have 13F/22 total roster players on day 1?
Assuming no other moves (there will almost certainly be other moves, like a RW trade). But assuming no other moves, If Bear signs for $1.6M or less (actually $1,596,675) then subtracting Yamamoto would make the team compliant, no?
This relates a bit to the Smith signing, but I honestly don’t understand the rationale behind breaking out SV% in different game states (I’m agreeing with you OP, in case it’s not clear).
Goalies aren’t the same as forwards who each have very different special teams usage. All goalies play all game states. In my view the biggest sample (given a relatively homogeneous usage) is the most relevant.
Been a busy day but I was going to add my 2 cents.
I don’t agree on the D pairings you posted but beyond that you captured most of what I wanted to say.
This team added significant offense in the last 2 days. That’s a big deal, I think. I wouldn’t have signed Smith, but I can see why Holland did it (19-12-6 as DEFMN pointed out, similar last season, despite a poor SV%). I don’t like it but the other options weren’t so pretty either.
Everyone here aside from Ricki was happy with Holland’s work before the Smith signing. I like the moves as a whole. IMO it’s still been a good week, even with a bit of a bitter cherry on top.
That’s my guess too.
GordieHoweHatTrick,
Yep.
Based on Holland’s verbal, management sees Lags’ potential. I just hope Playfair sees it too and trusts the player with his deployment. There will be some wobble, but it’s about time to see what we have in the young man. He’s put in his time.
I agree with all that. Just think of the two, Lags is better Defensively than Barrie…and maybe Russell, it would be good to find out the extent of Lags potential with this team and I don’t see much point in signing him to be 7D the whole season when KRusty will be moving on at some point. Need more Lags sample time….
OriginalPouzar,
Is this the data point that bears out his higher GF% than MK?
Team was dynamite on special teams last season.
GordieHoweHatTrick,
I agree with this.
Also, with Barrie on PP1 playing Bear on PP2 helps balance out the heavily left-shooting forwards typically deployed (while acknowledging that PP2 usually sees an extra right shooting forward AND a left-right D-pair over PP1).
Further, I’d be remiss to not point out that Wild Bill is a better puck mover than he’s typically given credit. His 5v5 points in BAK are a good indicator of this, as are the multiple eye-test accounts by posters on this forum.
He’s not even blocking shots the same anymore. His blocks/60 are down over 2 in both of the last two years from his norms. Down about 25% two years running.
In 829 minutes in 2017/18, Nurse/Larsson were positive possession and almost 57% in goal share – they were great together that year (but not the following year).
For Larsson, that was apx 75% of his minutes and he played over 35% against elites that year.
The two have had success together in tough minutes.
He had a good season on the PK – 1st in the league in PK save percentage.
I don’t think that is sustainable and the rest of his game, that is even strength has been nearing the worst in the NHL for years now.
This would be ideal, except I would hope to see Bear on PP#2. I don’t think it would take away time from his other expected minutes b/c PP#2 barely plays…it would give him some experience for the following year, when there will most likely be some Bouch / Bear PP time.
I really hope the coaching staff would give it a go, biggest concern being the coach defaulting to playing the vet instead of Lags. I think Lags would be a very good partner for Barrie. Compared to Russell, Lags can stand up the zone better, stronger in front of the net and corners (cycle) and would allow Barrie to do what he does well…transition the puck, roam, contribute to offensive rushes, etc.
I feel like these be the most likely pairings. Almost common sense.
Nurse-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Russell-Barrie
Ryan,
I think Bear takes another step forward with more experience.
Nurse will lose a lot of his effectiveness if he doesn’t play with Bear for the outlets.
I think Tippett will play Barrie and Larsson more or less at evens based upon game state/comp/zone.
Obviously, he’ll try to play Barrie more for ozone starts and Larsson more d zone.
For game state, Larsson gets more minutes when leading and Barrie more when chasing.
My point being, Broberg is on the fast track, he won’t be left simmering.
I heard it the same way. If things work he wants to stay.
The Leafs were bereft of right shot d.
You ever hear of a site called Puckiq?
Codi Effin Ceci. Yeah, that guy. He played 35% against elites for the Leafs.
Justin Holl. Never heard of him you say? That guy played 36% against Elites.
Tyson Barrie? 24%
That’s like Matt Benning level of shelter.
Teams also tend to play guys like Barrie or Justin Schultz more when they’re chasing.
We have Larsson for the heavy lifting and Bear for same plus outlets.
Larsson played 34% against elites and Bear played 36%.
How do you see these guys lining up?