Free agency is the empty calories of the hockey experience. It’s like dessert at a fancy restaurant. You’ve had wine, a fine meal, good company, and more wine. You’re content, this is good, we should do this more often. Suddenly, the dessert tray rolls by and your date notices a chocolate something-or-other.
That’s free agency day. Hard to say no to those empty calories.
The shopping and trading we see in the coming hours will inform us about the future, and about individual members of the department of youth. Some young prospects are going to get great news, others will see roadblocks appear that make NHL time next season difficult or impossible. Today, more than anything, is Ken Holland’s report card on his roster. What does he consider a priority? What impact will that have on the kids in the pipeline?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: As Oilers exit the system, the situation is fluid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s in a name? For NHL players, deciding on pronunciation can be a challenge
- Lowetide: Reconsidering Oilers’ offseason in light of Oscar Klefbom injury news
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
YOUNG BLOOD
RW Jesse Puljujarvi has a new contract and the Oilers will make room for him in the coming days by trading a veteran. This is a good time for him to return to the NHL. He has man strength (22 now), over a season of successful play in the Liiga and an organization that can use his range of skills. For those who have forgotten, he is 6.04, 201, skates well and drives to the net with abandon. Needs to make quicker decisions, learn to find quiet spaces in the offensive end and work on consistency. A lot of those words are a match for every kid at 22 who entered the NHL. Puljujarvi has real talent, he could be here for a decade if things rhyme.
RD Evan Bouchard got some good news this week, as the organization has cleared the way for him to begin his NHL career. Matt Benning’s exit means there’s an opening on RH side (third pair) for 2020-21. He will have competition, including Kris Russell and Caleb Jones, but Edmonton wants to add puck movers and Bouchard’s ability to pass the puck is exceptional.
LD William Lagesson is still hanging by a thread as a roster player for next season (I have him No. 8 on the depth chart) but the team qualified him so the two-way defender will get a second contract. We’re just beginning the roster tweaks, only Puljujarvi’s addition and the exits of Andreas Athanasiou and Benning represent significant change. Today and this coming month will tell us much about Lagesson’s future.
50-MAN LIST (38)
LW Tyler Benson sits No. 4 on the current depth chart and that’s good. What is bad? Edmonton is likely to add a left winger (maybe more) in the coming days. Benson’s final entry-level season is coming, I’m going to bet he plays in both the AHL and NHL this year.
LC Ryan McLeod sits No. 5 or 6 as we begin the process, but one of the priorities for Holland is a No. 3 center. Like Benson, he’ll likely split time between AHL and NHL in 2020-21.
Kris Russell is the only Oilers player on the list (No. 34), but I have heard Koskinen, Larsson, Neal, Khaira, Kassian and Chiasson mentioned in recent days.
As for possible acquisitions on the list, there are plenty who fit but I’m not sure if any are real options. Andreas Johnsson seems attainable, Jake DeBrusk would be ideal. Darcy Kuemper remains an option, although I had heard he was heading east before the draft.
I think the play here is to use some of Klefbom’s cap to address needs in free agency. I did some ciphering in my piece for The Athletic above and Holland may need it to make things go in free agency. Nurse-Jones-Russell on the LH side with Larsson-Bear-Bouchard (Lagesson No. 7) will definitely need some help, but the Klefbom status makes it impossible to throw any dollars at the problem. Maybe Philip Broberg saves the world.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the long weekend with a grand show! Free agency 2020 in the NHL begins right at 10 and we have you covered. Guests include Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast and BigMouthSports, we’ll chat about the NHL draft and free agency (coverage) and MLB playoffs. Corey Graham, Edmonton Oil Kings play by play man will pop by to talk about Jake Neighbours going in the first round of the 2020 draft and when we’ll hear his voice calling OK games. Matt Iwanyk will pop in at 11, we’ll talk about the Lakers winning another championship, and comparing this team to great LA basketball clubs of the past. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Hang on man, this free agency day is going to be wild!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nKfthKLSNo
I remember one play by Klef in 2017 against SJ Game 6 with a couple of minutes left in regulation.
I am glad the TJ types are disappointed with the Oilers FA results so far:
https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jones-oilers-fail-to-make-big-splash-on-free-agent-frenzy-day
I won’t try to argue any of this 🙂
That PP was pretty good with/despite him though.
In all honesty Klefbom I can barely come up with a single memorable game or even play he ever made. Coupled with his propensity for IR, I’d happily argue until the cows come home he’s an above average mediocre defenceman, on a hopeless team which fantasizes then renders everything hopeless when it incorporates poor Klefbom into the top pairing.
He’d look great anchoring Bobby Orr, or Paul Coffey I’ll give you that lol
What rock have you been crawling out from?
The Oilers have had one of the worst puck moving defence corpse’s since McDavid was drafted. You could argue any number of several mediocre hockey players with equal stats offensively to Nurse.
Of course, had you told me that Nurse stands up to the best in the NHL and you get my attention lol
Yeah definitely fair that it’s a long shot. But like you say a lot of things align. And I was surprised that Holland did not mention Broberg being in Sweden for the season in the same breath as saying Samorukov was in the KHL for the duration. We’ll see.
If he keeps scoring a PPG in the VHL they won’t be able to keep him down. Hopefully he can grab full time role with CSKA.
Data shows that a much greter percentage of Nurse’s zone entries have led to scoring chances than any other d-man on the team – he seems better in the offensive zone than the eye test shows.
Data shows he is top 10 in 5 on 5 points for d-men over the last 3 years. Seems like meaningful offence to me over a large sample size.
I don’t think anyone posits him a legit top pairing d-man in the NHL – well, not at the elite level, however, he can eat up minutes as a tireless and reliably healthy player and can play 35% of his TOI against elites with good results.
On your last point, I think its a long-shot but more of a chance than i would have thought a few months ago.
Partly is how the timing lines up.
Initial pre-covid plan was for him to attend training camp in Sept and then head over to Sweden for the season. That kind of got swapped with July training camp and being with the team for phase 4.
I wouldn’t think he’d come back over for training camp mid-SHL season but with him being in Edmonton for the World Juniors around the time that camps are likely to start, the timing kind of makes sense there.
I’m partly basing this off his start to the season – playing top pairing and through, what, 5 games now, being on the ice for 1GA. Then again, the sample size is about as big as the Oilers playoffs this past season.
Most think he’s ideal for the 2nd pair, no? But it’s pretty common for teams to play guys higher than you’d like to in an ideal world (see also Klefbom, Larsson).
Since you replied to this:
By mentioning Nurse as a hopeless passer….
I figured I’d look at how the Oilers PP did with Nurse vs Klefbom the last couple of seasons. I used minutes that each played with Nuge 5 on 4 (since McDavid and Draisaitl play lots of PP2 minutes at the end of their shifts).
18-19
Nuge with Klefbom 135min 8.45GF//60 7.57xGF/60
Nuge with Nurse — 118min 10.71GF/60 7.89xGF/60
19-20
Nuge with Klefbom 189min 11.78GF/60 8.06xGF/60
Nuge with Nurse —- 35min 8.52GF/60 7.72xGF/60
The team was considerably better in 18-19 with Nurse on the ice.
They were considerably better in 19-20 with Klefbom on the ice (though Nurse barely got any minutes). Also, there wasn’t much difference in expected goals scored with Nurse vs. Klefbom either season.
Nurse gets more PP2 time so his overall numbers look worse but I don’t personally think there’s a big gap in performance between Nurse and Klefbom on the PP.
Even though Nurse can’t make a pass he somehow seems to do things that create/support offense.
Maksimov back up to the KHL playing on the 4th line for CKSA Moscow right now.
Not sure if this is relating to Klefbom (who I wasn’t talking about last night). Guastafsson though was a bit better than his Chicago teammates in reducing 5v5 GA/60 over the past 3 seasons (they were all bad so I guess his league rank isn’t great).
And he scored 1.23 P/60 5v5. That was 3rd line forward production on Chicago during that time. Seems like a pretty useful player (more than I’d realized). I expect the main issue would be price as Munny mentioned.
Klefbom’s even strength offense scoring is quite poor, it’s true (even compared other Dmen).
JP:
Dmen who steal fwds off zone structure pocession must be compared to fwds.
Cause their abandonment of our own true defence zone High danger area ( homeplate) affect must be countered by them taking pocession away from the forwards.
Every yr all but 6-8 Dmen are 4 th line or PB, AHL evg and Evp production.
While being bottom half to worst def Dmen.
Their is no value to the offence from abandonment.
4Th option pocession from upper slot is most effect evg/evp production from Dmen.
Plus they are still in a position to be back to defend high danger area.
Last yr:
Ennis: 70gm 800K
16G 37P
11 evg 27 Evp
5 ppg 10PPP
Last 2 yr 28g/240 sh 11.67 SH%
20-21 1M
Hall 65gm 6M
16g 52P
12 evg 34evp
4 ppg 18 ppp
Last 2 yr 27g/345 SH 7.82 SH%
20-21 ???
Hall last yr was
7 extra evp
8 extra PPP for 5.2M more
Kassian
Last 2 yr
29 evg 59 evp, 1 SHG 30g/210 sh 14.29 sH%
20-21 3.2M
When you look at Kassians Career with top 6 forwards.
366gm 57 evg 4 ppg 61G/397 SH = 15.37 SH%, 1.08 SH/gm
You put him as #3 fwd on top 6 line he is
Leaving the pocession to the other 2 forwards and One of most efficient ( elite open shot) fwd delivering #26 RW (team #1RW) (#102 fwd) evg production.
#172 cap hit fwd (3.2M)
Nurse can rush with the puck yet is hopeless at passing it accurately in the offensive zone.
Nurse stopped fighting and intimidating the opposition about the time Lucic/Maroon joined the team. Since then he’s been neutered – which is something that no doubt suits certain liberalist hockey fans. Unfortunately it also suits the NHL opposition.
Nurse therefore, no longer fights or hits much and cannot be counted on in any meaningful way as an offensive force – so will someone please explain why he’s considered a future 1st pairing defenceman? Based on current development/play I can see he’s ideal for a 2nd pairing role at best… everything else is hype.
Naturally he will blossom into Chris Pronger 2.0 the moment he gets traded.
Replace the lost offence from Kbomb?
If a dman is stealing Zone structure pocession from fwds they better be Delivering.
Per Nat Stat 186 evmin (31 x14 fwd = 434), (243 D) (677 skaters)
Klefbom
.15 evg/60 #571 skater
.82 evp/60 #527 skater
Offence. Bahahahahaha
Meanwhile he abandons def of the high danger area and is a bottom 30 def dman.
Brutal!
Griess was a top 5 open shot Save% goalie,
Do not know his status last 2 yrs.
Cancer thing!
31 pts was #169 fwd last yr
Neal 19G 31P
Turris 9g 31P
Ennis has been a top 125 fwd in past.
Last yr:
#122 16G
#132 37P
Kassian – Mcdavid – JP
RNH – Drai – Yamamotto
Neal – Turris – Ennis
Khaira – xxx – Archibald
Chaisson
Something to be said for the benefits of veteran leadership as the Oilers seem to have a skew towards quieter types (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Larsson, and now Turris).
Not sure exactly what the locker room dynamics are like, but sparkplug-type guys that pump up the room bring value. At forward, Neal seems to be one, Kassian seems to have the element when he’s on, and Yamamoto has some energy. On the backend, Klefbom seems charismatic but he’s out and I’m not sure Nurse is all that vocal and none of Bouchard, Larsson, Russell, or Jones strike me as that type. Maybe Bear has it in him as he matures but I think they’d benefit from a mentor like Hainsey or Greene that I mentioned above.
Hell, maybe even Del Zotto could contribute in that respect while on a softer minute pairing with Bouchard.
I’m thinking he’ll add more of a veteran presence. Hainsey or Greene shouldn’t be too cheap, help replace Smtih’s locker room presence, and were both pretty solid last year. Given the youth of the blueline, I think that’s the right play.
Do you have any evidence, counsellor, of your “barely playable” claim? That seems pretty harsh. He averaged over 20 minutes a game, which not many of the UFA crop did, just the top ones like Pietrangelo.
He did well on a bad team, and can help replace some of the lost offense from KBomb. My only concern is he is in a position where he probably wants money and term (relatively so)… but the longer no one offers it to him, the cheaper he becomes.
I have a feeling Holland is thinking someone on more of a Gryba+ level, 6/7 dman, big and physical. Vet and cheap. Someone who can spell for Lagesson as he learns.
Injuries worry me and Gustafsson is likely the cheapest offense we can add. Hopefully traded out at the deadline with the imminent if not already return of Klef.
I’m all for replacing KBomb’s minutes as cheaply as possible. If the player is also an out-scorer…
If you could happen by and post this every night around midnight, that would be appreciated.
Don’t feel too bad. I think he might care a little bit since he decided to respond to your request for a source. I think it just might be nearing bed time.
e1
Right on.
You and Rick Dhaliwal both I guess.
A couple of things from the GM/player interviews today.
First, Turris is super excited about joining the team and where they’re headed. Very cool to see.
He also mentioned using the Oilers dressing room during the playoffs, sounded like it was an actual selling point lol.
Second, a little thing I noticed from Holland’s avail. He was talking about defensemen and depth in terms of replacing Klefbom (I think that was the context). Je mentioned Bouchard and Broberg and Samorukov. And then specifically mentioned Samorukov was committed to CSKA for the whole year. It didn’t sound like Broberg was necessarily expected to spend the whole year in Sweden though.
I wonder if OPs speculation on him joining the Oilers after Xmas is legit. My take on Holland’s words was, yeah, that could definitely happen.
Greiss is the best of the remaining UFAs but agree there’s concern there.
I’m not sure he’s worth 2x or 3x as much as Dell, for instance, which seems what it would likely cost.
I honestly don’t care even a little bit what you believe.
That’s some pretty huge hyperbole.
He’s been a bit sheltered but he’s been a positive GF% every season of his career.
He’s 9th among all defensemen in 5v5 P/60 over the past 3 seasons while also being 33rd in GF% (53.4%). Recall that Chicago is not a good team, play-in notwithsanding (49.1% 5v5 GF% over that span).
Damn, Gustafsson appears to be a far more useful player than I realized.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
Sorry for your loss. And yeah $1Mx1 was clearly attainable.
(I do feel pretty good about the Turris and Ennis adds for what they cost though)
I was trying to agree with you. I think Bouchard will be 3RD unless he blows hard in camp and likely also PP1. I don’t think Nurse or Bear would be terrible PP options either but it’s hard to imagine Bouchard being on the team and not getting a shot to show what he can do there.
I don’t get this gift thing of course Holland going to say that it’s window dressing. Bouchard has the pedigree and has earned his way to 3rd pairing gain confidence learn the ropes minutes. If Bouchard isn’t on PP1 get ready for some frustrated fans watching Nurse misplay and fumble the puck around like a hot loaf of bread when we have the perfect player on the bench. Before OP brings it up as for Bear on PP1 is he going to be able to handle all these minutes in a condensed shortened season.
I think it was reported that the Oil had spoken with him and the dollars weren’t in line. Doesn’t mean they can’t circle back as Greiss sees job opportunities vanish…..
A bit of a buyer beware, the Isles gave up the least amount of rush chances in the league last year and the Oil give up many rush chances. Greiss was “meh” on the rush chances he did face. As per Kevin Woodley.
Why?
The Oilers have $5.3M in space and 21 players signed, the Canucks have $7.9M and 20 players signed.
The Oilers actually improved today while the Canucks got worse.
Benning will have to pull off a Christmas miracle to leverage that tiny bit of extra cap into even keeping pace with the Oilers.
Fair?
Harpers Hair,
Stecher would be a great pick-up. Not big but works his ass off. Plus right handed.
jp,
I’m truly devastated. Especially at 1×1. Should’ve been easy to match.
Benson with a couple primary assists today in a 2-1 win – missed that earlier, sorry.
godot10,
HARD no to Colin Miller. Awful defender despite sheltered minutes at 3.8mil.
Think Greiss could be had for 2×2.5-3M?
I think he would be quality 1A/1B. He had good numbers before Trotz,,,
Of course a trade with Arizona would be okay too
Credible sources most often end up in a more verifiable form.
I googled and didn’t find anything on this one.
I should just take your word on where Dhaliwal said he thought Markstrom wouldn’t be willing to sign if he didn’t re-up in Vancouver?
likely because he’s not a good d-man. He’s barely playable at 5 on 5.
Why? It didn’t stop you when you initiated the conversation.
How much have you actually had to drink today?
You should watch Holland’s media avail today. Sounds pretty clear Bouchard is in the plans and Holland expect’s him on the team. He’s just isn’t going to hand him 3RD with zero cover.
Holland walked Benning because he was going to block Bouchard. But having a $1M guy with NHL experience (I realize Benning signed for $1M) is good business as cover for injuries and/or if Bouchard shits the bed.
You don’t need to worry at all about Bouchard being an Edmonton Oiler in 2021, IMO.
The Holland video:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/free-agency–ken-holland/t-277437406/c-6801110
The problem is you’ve been caught in so many fabrications that you have destroyed your presonal credibility. That’s the problem with living one’s on-line life the way you have chosen. you did this to yourself, no one did it to you, so don’t get all petulant when someone notes your story can’t be corroborated.
We have to corroborate your words because you have repeatedly proven to us that we have to.
2 goalies in CBJ and 2 goalies in ARI and, once PIT gets MAF back, DeSmith will hit the trade market.
With that said, we know that Holland doesn’t want to give up any assets…..
I think it may be Mrazek as he’ll come very cheap on asset acquisition (and hopefully at 2/3 of his contract).
Yes, that is what Bowman said today https://www.nhl.com/blackhawks/video/bowman-on-not-re-signing-crawford/t-277437096/c-6798207
So I guess it’s between Oil and Detroit for Greiss, seems like an obvious choice to me. Korpisalo would be great but he wouldn’t come cheap. Can’t see what we would trade for him, JP (don’t think I would do that).
Vancouver still has $8 million in cap space.
Might want to wait a day or two to start crowing.
I’ll see if he’ll write you a personal note.
I’m sure it’ll be right on top of his to do list.