Whole Lotta Shakin’ Going On

by Lowetide

A week ago, Edmonton’s shopping list was clear. The assumptions, including Nuge and Adam Larsson back in-house, involved a left-wing for Connor McDavid’s line, a replacement for Mikko Koskinen (who would be traded), a No. 3 center and a small upgrade on No. 3 LHD.

Things have changed. We’re now looking at the same goalie combination as one year ago, a No. 3 center, Zach Hyman and a RH defender for Duncan Keith. If there’s extra walking around money, maybe you bring in a shutdown LH blue to play with Evan Bouchard on the third pair and to push Kris Russell down the lineup. What would that look like?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

There’s $600,000 unspent and Oscar Klefbom is on LTIR, Neal bought out. Oilers are replacing Larsson with Murray, Bear with Vatanen and Barrie with Bear on defense, while kicking the goalie replacement can down the road to the deadline. It’s a reasonable change in course, and allows the goalies in Bakersfield to surprise and solve a problem like Bear did in 2019 and Yamamoto did in 2020.

Recall options are Ilya Konovalov and Stuart Skinner (goalie), Dmitri Samorukov and Philip Broberg (LHD and RHD), Dylan Holloway (left wing and center) and Kyle Turris on right wing.

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING

Let’s say for argument’s sake the Oilers need $15 million in order to add four men (my examples above are Hyman, Getzlaf, Murray and Vatanen) to the heart of the team. There are tweaks available to close the gap (about $5 million), including a James Neal buyout (the path I chose) or trade, plus a Mikko Koskinen buyout or trade.

The trade route is going to require a sweetener, the Koskinen buyout makes no sense at all. The rumours running around town currently are fairly wild and include a complete turnover of the right side of the defense (only Evan Bouchard returning).

Pierre Lebrun has Edmonton interested in Darcy Kuemper, but the Koskinen contract needs to be offloaded first and that’s going to take a sweetener. Holland needs a sweetener and the media is telling you what is being contemplated. I’ve seen all kinds of rage directed at media members for mentioning specific names, but that’s them telling you what they’re hearing.

The Oilers are turning over a bunch of this roster in an effort to add experience and to improve overall quality and depth. I don’t believe trading any of the young players on the roster currently (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bear, McLeod) is a good idea, as those represent both the future and the bulk of the value deals. This is about to get interesting.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we have a plan for the Lowdown on TSN1260 but I have a sense the news of the morning will carry the conversation of the day. Tyler Yarmechuk will join us at 10:20 to talk about what may come/has happened and we’ll talk Packers/Rodgers if time permits. The next three days are going to be Lowdown on speed, stay tuned! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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rickithebear

19/20 CHI 3gm 13 GA. 4.33GAA
20/21 WPG 4gm 14 GA 3.50 GAA
20/21 Final 4 3 series team 4 wins GAA: .75, 1.25, 1.75

1980’s Goaltending avg .865
Ron Gunville table hockey goalie movement position (PH1 of tracking) comes to NHL. JVB, ROY
More shots now hit the goalie rather than open space in net elevation.
A move to .912 – .916 approx. .048 jump.
way more than doubling range of bad to good starting goalies.

Jaxon

Cap Friendly has Ceci on the Oilers roster, but they don’t show how long or for how much. They don’t usually make moves without some confirmation, do they?

Jaxon

Holy crap… looks like Bear traded to Car for Foegele, Ceci signed, Hyman signed. I haven’t seen anything official on Barrie yet.

Jaxon

That sucks, Bear was one of my favourite Oilers. I think he was also a great draw and source of inspiration for the First Nations community in Western Canada. I think it sucks all around. I don’t think Ceci is an upgrade either.

Fuhrious

Friedman just retweeted this:
There’s a strong market for veteran ‘D’ in free agency: Word is that both Ian Cole and Cody Ceci will get north of $3M annually on their new contracts.

Ceci is leaning towards Edmonton, as @FriedgeHNIC
and others have reported, on what’s believed to be a four-year term.

Jaxon

If Koskinen can be dumped with 2 – to 2.5 retained, who would you try to sign in his place?

My preferences:

  1. Ullmark
  2. Mrazek
  3. Brossoit
  4. Bernier
  5. Reimer

But, really, I’m not sure Brossoit, Bernier or Reimer are much of an upgrade, especially when the price (with the retained money will be basically the same as just keeping Koskinen).

doritogrande

I’ll take the Barrie deal over Chiarelli’s long term Russell deal all day long.

Ryan

I actually don’t mind Barrie at 3×4.5.

leadfarmer

Hyman deal don’t
NMC first 5 years

me no likey

Ryan

Also the signing bonuses on the last three years to make it buyout proof.

TheGreatBigMac

Buyout proof?!! I’m onboard with Hyman but that hurts.

Jaxon

JFC! Why do they keep doing this?!

Jaxon

I would love to see Hamilton, but I know it is pretty much zero chance. Still crossing my fingers though.

Coiler

As good as Hamilton is, I personally think there are some skeletons in his closet which don’t always translate well for a team. Not that I wouldn’t want the team to get him but;

1) Why does he seem to have a 3 year shelf life with each of his teams?
2) Despite being a major part of the team, why did Carolina tell him to go explore free agency and come back if he didn’t find something?
3) And lastly, why has the term ‘laissez-faire’ followed the guy like a dark cloud everywhere he’s gone?

Maybe there are some solid answers to those questions out there. I’d be curious to find out.

Either way, I think New Jersey is getting him.

Last edited 1 month ago by Coiler
Jaxon

Yeah, but his performance doesn’t lie. I don’t really want to speculate about his personal life and whether that fits into the narrow idea of what is okay for a hockey player lifestyle. I don’t care if a player wants to go home and read a book or go to a museum rather than a pub That’s the type of thing I’ve heard about Hamilton, which is f’ing ridiculous to me, and it makes me wonder if it is coded talk for something else. I’ve never heard anything ‘bad’ about him except he doesn’t ‘fit in’ sometimes. This isn’t DeAngelo type stuff, or Sean Avery, or anything like that. OR Virtanen or a number of other players with real issues. This is all nonsense as far as I can tell. Again, I have no idea and don’t want to speculate. I just know his on-ice performance is elite #1D.

But, as you say, he’s probably not coming to Edmonton.

Jaxon

I don’t really want Barrie or Hyman. I’d prefer Wennberg to Hyman. He’s more versatile (can play C or W), numbers are pretty much as good with lesser linemates, he’s 4 years younger and will be cheaper.

TheGreatBigMac

Hyman is versatile, plays LW and RW effectively. Is Wennberg a physical presence? How is he on the forecheck and defense. The Hyman contract may not be the best but he brings a lot more than just points but he brings points too. That’s why he gets the big bucks, he’s a complete package.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac
Jaxon

He’s also missed games due to injury last 2 seasons and isn’t getting younger at 29. Almost every winger can play both wings. He has scored points while playing with Matthews and Marner. Kassian scored at a 21 goal and 47 point pace playing with McDavid. Would you be happy giving Kassian big bucks? No, we’d be saying, please don’t pay Kassian for his play while playing with McDavid. I think we’re paying Hyman for his play with Matthews and Marner. And he’s on the downside of his career with an injury history. Fills me with a lot of dread. Wennberg does have some physicality to his game and some decent defensive play.

OriginalPouzar

Looks like the Barrie deal is $4.5M X 3 (various).

Looks like the Hyman deal, in a few hours, will be $5.5M X 7 (Mirtle).

MADOIL

That is 10 Million gone from the cap space. How much do we have for the backup goalie, a 3rd line center and other depth signings?

jp

That is 10 Million gone from the cap space. How much do we have for the backup goalie, a 3rd line center and other depth signings?

Penciling in Yamamoto at $2M and Benson at $800k, plus Lagesson as 7D (so 12F/7D/2G accounted for) there’s about $5.8M cap remaining.

jp

$5.8M to add to the following:

Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Benson-McLeod-Kassian
Shore-Turris-Archibald

Nurse-Barrie
Keith-Bear
Russell-Bouchard
Lagesson

Smith/Koskinen

ArmchairGM

With Turris and Stalock buried and Klefbom on LTIR, the Oilers have $9.778M in cap space (with Hyman and Barrie accounted for at $10M). That’s with 18 players signed: 9 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies.

Some of those holes will be filled with RFA’s, certainly Yamamoto and probably Benson.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArmchairGM
TheGreatBigMac

Cap for a backup goalie? None unless we get rid of Koski. A Kuemper swap is best case. I hope Arizona is interested in a 2023 2nd.

leadfarmer

Dang many will hate the Barrie signing but that is half the length of 40 point forwards and for even cheaper

jp

Highest scoring UFA on the market, half the deal that many others are going to get. Kinda crazy.

OriginalPouzar

Unless I missed something, Ethan Bear hasn’t actually been traded…..

leadfarmer

Well too late
pitchforks have already been sharpened

godot10

Well, you know, the proverbial writing is on the wall, as it was with Petry.

TheGreatBigMac

Seems like Holland is going to take his chances with the mighty B’s and go for a deadline upgrade if needed.

leadfarmer

1 month ago we were told that Sakic is too smart to sign Landeskog to 8 years
and now his 8 year signing is considered brilliant

Coiler

No kidding eh?
I think both parties gave a little on the deal. Sakic with term and Landeskog for money.

MADOIL

Really? I feel Sakic gave up more if the initial figure of 5.125 or 5.5 x 8 was true. Landeskog went from getting 44 million to 56 million by pushing back and threatening to go to free agency. Glad that RNH did not do that to the Oilers.

Cwadams81

At the risk of getting run out of the blog, isn’t it really Bouchard that becomes expendable with a Barrie signing rather than Bear? Would Bouchard also theoretically yield a higher trade return?

Coiler

I really hope not as I personally think Bouchard has way more upside than Bear (who I think is a fine player). In terms of a possible trade I would think Bouchard would get you more but the way this org is proceeding with things, all you can do is shrug, cross your fingers, and pray that Holland can squeeze something credible.

I have my doubts but remain cautiously optimistic.

ArmchairGM

GET OUT!!

Bling

Ethan Bear: 132 GP
Caleb Jones: 93 GP

This organization is completely nuts if they think these guys are fully formed. How many D are you going to develop if you jettison them this quickly? The answer is zero.

As a frame of reference, how many games did Nurse have to play before Holland started to trip over himself trying to sign him long term? How long did Klef take?

Holland is the mad king and Tippett is right there with him.

I’m furious with Tippett. Just livid. Between Barrie, Bear, and Jones he is batting 0 for 3.

Woodcroft can’t get here soon enough.

godot10

Well at least we know when the next rebuild starts. 4 years from now. When the Oilers have to monetize McDavid. Maybe even three, when they have to monetize Draisaitl. They may decide to do both.

The window is three years, and they start with a lineup that is still flawed, likely fatally flawed.

Every GM becomes certifiable in Edmonton.

Holland on tilt after the bad beats on Klefbom and Larsson, pushing all his chips in with Barrie and Kassian in the hole, and Hyman and Keith on the flop.

I don’t think Broberg and Holloway can fix this.

Bling

The darkness before the dawn really just turned out to be more darkness.

Last edited 1 month ago by Bling
Reja

If we can get a Goalie that changes everything.

godot10

The coach is Dave Tippett. The goaltender is Mike Smith.

razor

This is the Larsson-Hall trade, Lucic free agent signing vs keep Hall and just sign Demers scenario all over again. Better to just keep Bear, don’t sign Barrie, and sign one of the many goaltender options in Free Agency rather than trade Bear for Keumper. Bury Koskinen if you have to. Oil brass once again identifying the wrong assets to pursue.

Last edited 1 month ago by razor
Bling

The entire org is just rotten and non-sensical.

The moves on D are clearly being orchestrated by Tippett. He completely mismanaged the D all season, to the point he only had 3 D that he trusted in the overtime of an elimination game. For that, he gets to dictate the future direction of this team’s defence. Get him out of here.

To think that D was becoming an organizational strength. Good bye Caleb Jones, and soon good bye to Ethan Bear. The MSM is eating it up because it has always been them, and very rarely the fans, that have run D out of this town. The fans are a good scapegoat for when they are wrong, which happens to be frequently.

I really hope Bouchard can babysit Keith and that Nurse can get even better at covering for Barrie. Isn’t that backwards? Yet it seems to be exactly what Tippett and Holland are thinking.

Bouchard is going to pass Barrie next season. Book it. Bear is already a better all round player than Barrie and the gap is only going to increase.

Meanwhile, only as an Oiler fan do you have to wonder who they are going to sign to play the third pair, and whether both those guys are capable of stepping into the top 4 in defensive situations.

This is so completely, absurdly stupid.

GordieHoweHatTrick

It really is mind blowingly stupid

dessert1111

If the Oilers pick up both Barrie and Ceci, in a way I like that better than just Barrie if Ceci comes cheap. It does mean Bear becomes tradeable, which I don’t want to do, but if they see Ceci as more of a depth option it could work. It would have to be for not much more than the Russell contract though, and I’m skeptical Ceci would sign for that amount and for a depth role, but maybe he does.

Nurse-Barrie
Keith-Bear
Lagesson-Bouchard
Russell-Ceci

Not a great top end but very good depth, and there will be injuries.

Bling

Bringing back Barrie is stone cold, peak Chiarelli crazy. Completely idiotic.

Bouchard can replace him (his EV scoring was in the same neighbourhood), and is unlikely to be the same liability 5v5. Bouchard’s skill at getting pucks through is now also wasted, as he will be the third option for the power play.

Now the talk is you need to deal Bear to get the right “mix” on RHD. Only this organization has a thought process this twisted. If that comes to fruition, you now have 2 D that Holland and Tippett are praying on (Barrie and Keith) in terms of defensive ability, plus whoever the new RHD is.

Of all the people in the room, Tippett should know Bear is more valuable because when the chips were down and it was an important defensive situation, it was Bear out there, not Barrie. Why in the world would you want a 1 RHD that can’t play in defensive situations?

These guys don’t want 20 somethings making mistakes, but they feel better when it’s older higher paid guys who need to be babysat. If you liked Tippett playing 3 D in OT in the playoffs, wait until next season when each top 4 pairing has a guy that can’t be trusted.

Obviously Tippett has some say in what is going on with the D and between Jones and this, I’m completely done with him. I’m late to this bandwagon but Godot et al were bang on. Tippett’s management of the D this season completely screwed up everything, and his talent assessment in terms of what is happening this off-season is completely bogus.

There is so much stupid flying around, I am legitimately terrified of how much of it will stick.

JimmyV1965

I noticed the Hawks didn’t give up any assets to in their trade for Fleury. Funny how that works. 

Reja

Hawks wanted the Caleb Carrot to entice Seth and it worked.

Ryan

What did you think Kelly Mccrimmon could smoke out Stan Bowman? Apparently only Jarmo can do that.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I loath the idea of trading Bear. What would an ideal return look like for a Bear trade? What young forwards are available?

John Chambers

I really like the player. Not sure why we’d want to get rid of a cost-controlled RD who plays competent minutes and PK’s.

I doubt we win the trade.

PokeCheck

An ideal return would be a new GM.

judgedrude

Historically, a good, young RHD that should be cost controlled for many years would fetch something in the neighbourhood of pre-Hart Taylor Hall.

Harpers Hair

Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) Tweeted:
$6m appears to be the magic number several free agents. How many of these guys will get there? Schwartz, Coleman, Palmieri, Saad…Hear Coleman is looking at $6-plus.

https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1420245598876356617?s=20

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Who the F*&^ would pay 6M per season for a player that has never scored more than 40 points in a season.

OriginalPouzar

LeBrun says Oilers and Barrie will finalize a 3-year deal in the morn.

GordieHoweHatTrick

So Bouch is going to PK?
Or wait, maybe Keith on his offside.

Ken Holland you are a fool.

jp

So Bouch is going to PK?

You won’t like this any better, but I think it will be Nurse-Russell, Keith-Bear (or Ceci??).

Randle McMurphy

Whew! No 8 yrs and I can go to bed.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Serious suggestion: reverse Brent Burns Barrie and play him at wing.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Or maybe just Brent Burns Barrie. I don’t remember if Burns played forward first and then went to D or if he went D -F -D.

Tarkus

I think Burns was a F first.

He basically pulled a reverse Wendel Clark.

Genjutsu

Burns was a D then to forward then back to D.

Well he’s was always a forward he just lined up back there most of the time.

Bling

This is bad news in terms of what comes next.

Coiler

So yesterday I read Barrie was going to test free agency as he was looking for a 4-5 year deal. This morning I’m reading he’s signing for 3 with the oil.

I’m really failing to see the logic in this signing at all or the speculation on Ceci. This is getting ugly folks.

Rondo

Bear looked slow last year, maybe because he wasn’t working out as much. Last year was definitely a step back for him. Maybe that is the way for young D-men

Prairie_Sentinel

I’m not getting the Barrie in/Bear out thinking from the Oilers brass. I watched Bear play AAA back in the day…..the kid is a battler, he’s smart, he’s growing as a player, he’s cheap(er than Barrie will be), and he’s got upside. Seeing as how he’s from the area where I live, I tend to keep an eye on him during shifts. He seems to play his best when he’s reading and reacting to the play without much thought. At least to me, you can kind of tell when he’s struggling because away from the puck, you can see him looking around and seemingly thinking “am I in the right spot?” Whereas, when he’s clicking, it’s all reaction and it’s fun to watch. You can see the patience with the puck, that pond hockey mentality that tells you to wait just a touch longer and make that nice 1st pass out of the zone. He’s only going to get better.

Is Bear perfect? Of course not. He’s smaller than we’d probably like, he’s not as physical (although he can be effective at using body positioning), and he’s a bit overmatched strength-wise at times. But he’s homegrown, cheap, a good passer, and cost-controlled. Get Bear back onto the offseason fitness program he used two years ago, and watch your 5th round tree grow for years to come.

Compare to Tyson Barrie, who is exactly what he is at this stage – all offence, and very little defence. Watching Barrie in his own zone is sometimes cringe-inducing. Barrie is about the same size as Bear, and he’s at the top of the hill in terms of his career. I know the Oilers are in “win now” mode, but you’ve got Bouchard coming in a real hurry, and I think Bouch is going to make Barrie redundant in a year+.

Run this to start the season:
Nurse – Bear
Keith – RHD free agent
Sammy/Russell/LHD free agent – Bouchard

I guess a lot of it depends on terms and AAV, but to me, “win now” has to be tempered with a bit of “win for a long time”. The more homegrown talent that we have pay off, the better the cap situation will be for the team. A one trick pony like Barrie can and will be replaced by Bouchard in short order.

Can’t help but wonder if some of the online hate launched at Bear by some troll “fans” may be at play here too.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Well said. I’m with you on this…

Pescador

To be fair, Barrie In/Bear out is just media & fan speculation at this point.
Isn’t it?

Prairie_Sentinel

I don’t think you can enter next season with the Killer B’s on the right side. With Barrie signed and Bouchard there, something has to give.

Pescador

Right (no pun intended)
Need some D that excel at playing D

Randle McMurphy

Bear for Merzlikins ?

Pescador

Kuemper?

Reja

I agree this endorsement 99%

Pescador

Ha
It’s not an endorsement
Just speculation

jp

I’d prefer Merzkilins by quite a lot (mostly because of the 4 years younger thing).

flea

If the Oilers sign Barrie tonight I think that might put the Ceci rumour to bed. I’m surprised they would cash out Bear, Oilers have a large indigenous fan base and Bear is part of that reason. Just appears they weren’t happy with his conditioning, seems to be an ongoing problem in his career aside from his 1 season two years ago.

Return better be good. I predict Merzlinkins

Reja

I could be wrong but I don’t believe most GM’s in the NHL are handcuffed by identity politics.

flea

I tend to agree with you but I bet this discussion still occurs. It’s a hockey decision for sure. I actually think it’s the right time to move him. His arrows have been decent but uneven, if the return is good, you have to go for it.

this is the Oilers though so prepared to be underwhelmed.

Reja

It’s all about winning when it counts if you preform well when the spotlight is on you. This usually allows you to have more rope when it comes to the less meaningful regular season games.

godot10

Bear performed better than Barrie, even last year.

Reja

Bear was on the wrong side of his man which allowed a couple of big goals against Chi-Town and he had a bad 3rd and 4th game against the Jets. Tippett and Holland are old school…. Playoff performances matter!!!

jp

I predict Merzlinkins

If Bear were to go for Merzlikins, well you won’t hear me complain.

I like Bear lots, but IMO Merzlikins is probably the best G available.

I think I’d even embrace a Barrie/Bouchard/Ceci RD in exchange for Merzlikins.

Reja

If he packages Bear and Mikko plus for Merzilikins I would be even happier. I don’t think I can take the sieve Mikko shitting the bed for another year.

OriginalPouzar

Landeskog signs with the Avs: $7M X 8

Harpers Hair

Perfect.

Joe does it again.

Ice Sage

That’s not really a spectacular deal for either side, but it keeps their core together – if anything I’d say Gabe ground out Burnaby Joe on the term but they could have a cup or 2 by then and that’s what it’s all about. Bye bye Saad, maybe Grubauer.

OriginalPouzar

“an EIGHT year contract. What could go wrong?”

Diablo

Over paid by more than 1.8 million on the same term that Nuge got. You keep worshipping at that altar HH.

Randle McMurphy

In other news, Jim Benning places Jim Benning on waivers for the purpose of a buyout

Diablo

^^^This wins the comment section tonight

Randle McMurphy

Landeskog….always one step ahead of Nuge.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Makes the already peachy extension for Nuge look better.

jp

Makes the already peachy extension for Nuge look better.

I think Landeskog is the better player, but I’m not at all sure he’s 37% better. I’m hoping/expecting Nuge ages more gracefully as well.

I don’t think I’d trade those contracts.

LoDog

#remindme5years
Nuge
Hyman
Landeskog

Scungilli Slushy

Barrie is far better than Bear.

And I don’t like D of that style.

MushedPeas

at what? at D?

Redbird62

Skating, shooting, passing and stick handling for sure.

Reja

Bear just doesn’t show enough on offence for the style he plays .

Kert

I’m pretty sure Bear isn’t worse at skating or passing.

Scungilli Slushy

29 year old players aren’t about to peak.

They might find a few hot seasons.

Why do players tail off?

First of all few players have the drive to stay at the top. It means obsessing.

Injuries. Personal (off ice).

I get why they look for good guys. Less off ice issues.

But you need edge in a physical game.

Old failing goalies are a pass.

Harpers Hair

Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
Plenty of speculation on what a Barrie signing means for Ethan Bear. I believe the organization will explore the trade market for him if they feel they have solid options available in free agency that provide a more shut-down style…/

https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1420223327482744834?s=20

Harpers Hair

Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
Not sure on what a return would look like, but the Oilers have plenty of needs up front for top 9 f’s, and potentially in net as well. Bear is a good young player with a bright future, but from a style standpoint, Barrie, Bear,Bouchard on the right isn’t an ideal fit…/

https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1420223329605091330?s=20

Jethro Tull

Why are teams falling over themselves to help Chicago?

Scungilli Slushy

They send them real deep dish.

Diablo

That’s worth the trip to Chicago alone!

Scungilli Slushy

Never had the chance!

Reja

Bowman must of had a real shindig with all the GM’s present years ago. He managed to get some juicy photos for later use.

YKOil

Nice bit of business by Tampa there. Just like that they are fine with the Cap. Enough room to sign all/most of the RFA’s and a cheap goalie.

I predict another LTIR trade to give them room to maneuver. Get enough LTIR space and the world is your oyster.

Will have lost Goodrow, Gourde, Johnson, and (probably both) Coleman and Savard. Gourde, Coleman, and Goodrow represent real losses but that is still a VERY deep team.

Harpers Hair

PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) Tweeted:
The #GoBolts traded Tyler Johnson (3 years @ $5M) & ’23 2nd to #Blackhawks for Brent Seabrook (3 years @ $6.875M).

The #GoBolts add $1.875M in Cap Hit, but with Seabrook on LTIR, they can exceed the cap by up to his $6.875M Cap Hit.

https://t.co/Kio5pnmZzU

https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1420208615227490305?s=20

misfit

When I see how the organization seems to view Ethan Bear, I can’t help but be reminded of Jeff Petry. This team really has a way of mishandling/under-appreciating good young defensemen.

Let’s hope there’s no truth to the rumour of Barrie in, Bear out. Especially since it would likely be Bear for a pick based on Holland’s trade history.

Bill Clinternet

Bear and Petry are not comparable. Petry is 6’3 and an elite skater for a defenseman. Bear is closer to Matt Benning than he is to Petry

MushedPeas

I had time for Benning at the right Av. Bear is no Benning.

Pescador

I miss Matt Benning

Bill Clinternet

Me too. He’s a good 3rd pairing player. But nobody was mistaking him as a 1st pairing guy who can replace a .75ppg defenseman

misfit

It wasn’t a comparison of the two players, it was a comparison of their situations. The fact that Petry and Bear have different styles and physical attributes is irrelevant.

Bill Clinternet

I’ve heard a lot of “trading Bear is just Petry 2.0 again” from Oilers fans.

Ryan

If Holland trades Bear to Yzerman for a second rounder and conditional fifth….

Kert

It is all about the return. What is a return you’d be comfortable with for Bear? Two 2nds? A 2nd and a Samorukov-esq player on track to make it, but hasn’t yet?

OriginalPouzar

There hasn’t been anything from the organization that shows they don’t value Bear but for playoff deployment and that was based off a player that was struggling to not make mistakes at the time.

The coach gave him top pairing and PK minutes for almost an entire season and started him there in next season.

The Bear trade talk seems like more speculation than anything.

OriginalPouzar

Rishaug suggesting its likely a 3-year deal with Barrie.

Randle McMurphy

That’s the best we could hope for on term.

Diablo

Just long enough to keep Bouchard off PP1 and extended at a lower amount on his next contract.

I know everyone here is down on Barrie … but he was excellent on PP1 last year. First time in a long time that we’ve had a PP QB who can make a pass and take a pass. Love watching that PP unit work … don’t fix what ain’t broke.

OriginalPouzar

Was he?

I justed used “McDavid” as a proxy for PP.

Oilers PP scored at half a goal/60 higher with Nurse/McDavid than Barrie/McDavid this year and the goals/60 with McDavid went up slightly when he was without Barrie.

Also, in 2019/20, McDavid/Nurse nd McDavid/Klef both produced higher G/60 at 5 on 4 than McDavid/Barrie this season.

Last edited 1 month ago by OriginalPouzar
TheGreatBigMac

Hmm, not taking away from Barrie but Klef was a pretty good qb the year before if memory serves.

Diablo

Nurse can’t play ever single minute though, and Klef may not be coming back ever.

Bouchard would have been the default option, but I’d prefer to ease him into the role, rather than burden him with expectation that he may not be ready for.

OriginalPouzar

The PP may be Bouch’s best game state and where his skills shine the most.

I would presume he would excel on the Oilers PP1 and, if anything, give him confidence for the 5 on 5 game state.

Ethan Bear also scored many PP goals in junior.

Redbird62

So did Kris Russell. He scored 22 in fact, the season he won Whl defenseman of the year (also won by both Barrie and Bear – Bouchard won that award in Ontario). Caleb Jones was a PP guru in the WHL.

Bear may do some things better than Barrie on the defensive side of things, but at the NHL level, Barrie shoots better, passes better, skates better and stick handles better and that’s not really debatable.

Reja

Kelfbom done he has been for 2 years if we’re living is the past let’s bring back Coffey

godot10

The power play was better with Barrie off it.

Redbird62

Based on what?

OriginalPouzar

Based on the stats I posted above?

OriginalPouzar

Of note, if. theOilers get the Barrie deal done in the next half hour, it can still be 8 years.

Randle McMurphy

is that a joke?

disturbing but funny

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

Well, the info is true, but, yes, the post was made in jest.

Bill

*reads this and walks into oncoming traffic*

Pescador

Oh man, he can’t give everyone an 8 year deal.
Ken Holland is GMing like the 2022 off-season will be canceled

Last edited 1 month ago by Pescador
Todd Macallan

Bobby Mac comes out of retirement to tweet that the Oilers and Barrie are close to a new deal.

Reja

Barrie in Bear out.

OriginalPouzar

No need to trade Bear:

Nurse/Barrie
Keith/Bear
Sammy/Bouchard

Reja

Where does Ceci play because Bouchard isn’t sitting in the hotel room all year. Bear and Mikko for a Goalie or 3C if Getzlaf doesn’t sign

Last edited 1 month ago by Reja
OriginalPouzar

I don’t see Barrie and Ceci as a package deal.

Sierra

I don’t love that grouping, I’m not sure I even like it, but that may be the best we can hope for?

Harpers Hair

WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) Tweeted:
My friends, if the Oilers bring in two RHD in Barrie and Ceci, they’re not going to keep Bear AND Bouchard. And Bear’s been in all the trade rumours.

I hate it. But if Ceci and Barrie do come in, Bear is gone for a G or a winger. My guess is a G.

https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/1420219222219575296?s=20

OriginalPouzar

WheatNOil is a fantastic follow and, if Oilers fans want his opinion, they should (and probably do) follow him on twitter.

Harpers Hair

So are Bob McKenzie and Ryan Rishaug…and yet…here you are.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, fan opinion and information from top insiders…… the same.

Asshole.

Ryan

I predicted a Bear trade at the end of the season.

It’s unfortunate.

Obviously, If Holland does Barrie in Bear out, he’s just trying to live another day (aka season).

I hope it’s a winger which means that it will be a goalie.

Diablo

If Larsson’s money goes to Barrie, then I’m fine with that. Just don’t overpay.

Randle McMurphy

McKenzie sounds pretty casual but pretty certain as well.

Damn. Gonna have to stay up late now.

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

Ya, don’t see McKenzie tweeting that unless it’s pretty much done. Multi-year deal for Barrie coming up.

I just don’t see how this is going to work over the course of 3-4 years. When he’s passed by Bouch on the PP and even at 5 on 5, where does Barrie play?

How long until Sammy is ready to cover for him on a non-Nurse pairing?

Randle McMurphy

If it’s going to happen I’m hoping for 3yrs x $4.5m

YKOil

Not a fan of a Barrie signing at all.

The Summer of Chia’s Ghost.

Scungilli Slushy

Better get that right.

Ryan

As much as I want to hate using a shoehorn to put Codi Ceci into our top four, I find myself hating the idea less and less.

Don’t get me wrong, Ceci’s a #5 which is a kind way of calling him a bottom pairing defenseman.

But if the price is right, you could make it work. It’s not ideal and it’s not Douggie Hamilton…

You’re really betting on Bouchard in this scenario. You’re also betting that Keith isn’t bottom pairing yet. You also need a lot of minutes out of Bear.

Remember that thing Eakins did with Schultz’s minutes? Basically, he deployed Schultz based on game state. If the Oilers were down, he played the hell out of him… easing up his minutes proportionately when the Oilers were defending a lead. Okay, so it didn’t exactly work then, but there’s merit to the premise.

Last year, the Codi Ceci minutes at evens weren’t too far off Larson’s. About a minute at 5v5 with slightly worse defensive metrics and better offensive metrics.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476879&p2=8476457&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

Randle McMurphy

Good Work. Thank You.

jp

Huh. Yeah, pretty comparable.

Larsson has some excuses (partners, lack of McDavid minutes) and a much better history (all the underlying stuff, less so actual goals the last few year).

And this year for Ceci was a high water mark in everything but actual goals (his relative fenwick, shots, xGoals were the best since 14-15), while being still negative relative to team almost across the board.

Still, not much to choose this past year.

As you say, if Ceci is the best RD added it would be a huge bet on Bouchard, and Bear. I’d have no issue adding him, but really hope the deal is closer to the 1x$1.25M one he signed with Pittsburgh last fall than the $4M+ he was being paid before (by both the Sens AND Leafs).

Honestly I’d hope he gets 1 or 2 years at that AAV to be the 4RD. But that’s not the kind of deal anyone hears rumours about on the even of FA. He does seem to have a bit of offense in his game at least.

Ryan

comment image

PuckPedia

@PuckPedia

·

7h

Let’s fix this.

He’ll be 31 after a 4-year deal as he still has 1 year left on his current deal. A 4-year extension has the contract expire at the same time as the current CBA (unless the automatic 1-year extension kicks in).

Quote Tweet

comment image

PuckPedia

@PuckPedia

· 7h

A 4-year deal puts Nurse at 30 for his next deal at a time when the Salary cap is likely to make its first meaningful jump in many years.

Same agency represents Taylor Hall who also signed for 4 years.

https://puckpedia.com/agents?a=Quartexx%20Management

Ryan

Basically, an explanation for the 4-year Nurse contract.

leadfarmer

2020 Canucks post-draft offseason: resign Virtanen, sign Holtby, trade a 3rd for Schmidt 

2021 Canucks post-draft offseason: buyout Virtanen, buyout Holtby, trade Schmidt for a 3rd 

legitimately hilarious

MADOIL

Lol!!

Crazy Pedestrian

😂🤣😂🤣

Reja

Why would they buy out Holtby he must of had a pissing match with Coach or GM.

leadfarmer

He’s been awful for years now

Reja

I know but Canucks aren’t going anywhere this year why buyout.

OriginalPouzar

With the acquisition of OEL, Benning is building for the now.

Sierra

vancouver media saying the Nucks need cap space.

N64

busy GM

Pescador

Benning is like George Costanza with the Penski file

Gerta Rauss

Mr. Tuttle: [looks through the file] What HAVE you been doing all week?
George: Well, you missed a lovely little party that we had for Grace.
Mr. Tuttle: You haven’t done anything with this.
George: Well, bear in mind that I am in the smaller office.

Last edited 1 month ago by Gerta Rauss
Harpers Hair

Of course you forgot:

2021:

Acquire top 6 forward Conor Garland and sign him to a steal of a contract at under $5 million for 5 years of prime production.

Move out $20 million in dead cap space.

Aquire OEL and take the risk he will rebound in a more uptempo playing style.

Spend a draft pick to acquire a legit #3C.

By way of contrast…Oilers 2021.

Sign Nuge to an EIGHT year contract. What could go wrong?

Trade an NHL D AND a draft pick to take on the contract of a declining 38 year old D.

Lose #2RD to free agency because you lowballed him.

Hang on to Kassian and Koskinen.

Buyout Neal and pay Lucic effectively $2 million a year not to play for the Oilers.

Potentially pay a 29 year old winger with an injury history $5.5 million for 7 years…what could go wrong?

Sign a 39 year old goaltender to a 2 year contract. What could go wrong?

The Canucks have effectively balanced their forward group but need two defensive D and a backup goaltender.

The Oilers still do not have a credible bottom 6 and need two defensive D and a backup goaltender.

Benning is way ahead at this point. We’ll see how it looks when the dust settles.

Perspective.

Side

This is a very, very bad post.

I feel bad for whoever takes the time to point out why.

Ice Sage

I feel bad for all Vcr ‘fans’, stuck with Jim Bennillini… the flailing is churning English Bay!

Harpers Hair

What calamity are you expecting a year from now?

The OEL risk is known but every other move is solid and with $30 million in cap space, including Ferland on LTIR, Benning has maximum flexibility unless he dies something stupid.

Messier11

HH you have to read the first part again. That is funny. No comparison to other teams needed. Too funny

McNuge93

So then Bennings 2022 off season must be:

buyout OEL
trade Conor Garland for a third round pick

fishman

Say good night DICK!

Reja

When’s the last time that someone that signed for 2 years being bought out after year 1? Oilers probably would have bought out Turris if Mikko and Neal weren’t in front of him in the buyout line-up.

OriginalPouzar

A Turris buyout make almost zero sense – 2/3 of his existing contract can be buried in the AHL (only a less than $500K cap hit would exist and there would be zero dead cap for next season).

I predict Turris plays NHL games for the Oilers this season – he’s in Edmonton, training hard and, presumably, knows he’s playing for another contract.

I also assume he won’t have Covid leading up to the season.

Reja

I really thought Turris would do well here maybe he was way out of shape to start the year. He did play a few nice games at the end of the regular season.

OriginalPouzar

I just don’t think we can discount the effect the Covid-season had on any particular player – even just dealing with the restrictions and stresses on life, let alone those that actually had to deal with Covid and its symptoms.

Material Elvis

I can sum up your post quite succinctly: The Oilers are a playoff team and the Canucks suck and will miss the playoffs again.

Rich M

Hi Art!

€√¥£€^$

What an Art-Full post!

MushedPeas

🙄

leadfarmer

so as expected this huge amount of defensemen available has dwindled down to a small handful

Randle McMurphy

Montreal without Danault and Weber…hmmmmm

Man it’s hard to be good in the cap era.

pts2pndr

Excellent article!

OriginalPouzar

No mention of the #9 pick going out (the prospect taken ranked top 5 by many).

Mentions the $20 of cap moved out but no mention the $7.25M X 6 in for a 30 year old regressing d-man.

Nuge’s contract is described as “what could go wrong” but OEL’s as a bounce-back candidate in this fancy up tempo style.

All spin – as always.

Sierra

LT’s article at The Athletic is “all spin – as always”?

OriginalPouzar

No, HH’s post.

Pescador

HH had a post in Lowetides article?
This is very confusing

OriginalPouzar

My response was in the wrong thread – don’t know how that happened.

MushedPeas

Demon Liquor

Harpers Hair

Tracy Lane (@TreenasOil) Tweeted:
Oilers offered Koekkoek a 1 yr contract but he decides to test free agency….as per Garfield

https://twitter.com/TreenasOil/status/1420184228336078853?s=20

OriginalPouzar

This account has the same amount of inside info that I do – none.

Harpers Hair

But her rare posts are interesting and not repetitive.

leadfarmer

So why do you follow her?

pts2pndr

Very unlike yours that are tired an repetitive!

Messier11

Burn

Lucinius

So, looks like Danault will be signing in Vegas; 6 years, 6.5 mil per is what’s on twitter from a large number of blue check-marks.

Like the player, but.. seems like more money than is reasonable, imo.

Randle McMurphy

Vegas is definitely managed by some high rollers.

If I was Danault I’d ask for a comp on the penthouse suite and a casino credit.

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
leadfarmer

VGK GM Kelly McCrimmon says that Mikael Hakkarainen, who was acquired for Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury, will continue to play in Chicago’s organization despite the @GoldenKnights owning his contract.

I guess this is what comes after future considerations in negotiations

TheGreatBigMac

Chicago looks a little tight on number of contracts so this seems to just be manuvering to keep them from running into issues there. You’ll recall we took a minor contract for Keith too. Probably nobody cares too much about Hakkarainen either way.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac
Harpers Hair

Shane O’Brien (@ShaneOBrien55) Tweeted:
@MontourBrandon is staying in south Florida. @FlaPanthers It’s a 3 year deal. @MissinCurfew @SiriusXMNHL @stevekouleas

https://twitter.com/ShaneOBrien55/status/1420170769242353665?s=20

Harpers Hair

$3.6M AAV.

leadfarmer

We went from me wondering if we may make a play for Getzlaf yesterday to us being favorites to sign Getzlaf per Lebrun
please let the contract be short and small

Randle McMurphy

As per Zach Laing,

“According to Evolving Hockey contract projections, Getzlaf’s most likely contract (48% chance) is a one-year deal paying him $2.182-million. His second most likely deal is a two-year contract (22%) which would pay him an AAV of $3.43-million.”

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

OK Duncan. Get on the phone to Corey Perry

Scungilli Slushy

Dubas lesson should be learned.

You can’t sign more than one.

Getzlaf OR Perry.

Perry wants to party on St Catherine’s St as he said essentially.

Or wherever NHL players do that.

Somebody has to skate, to be a fast skilled aggressive team as KG said was the goal.

€√¥£€^$

It will be $2 million AAV Max

Randle McMurphy

If he’s signing with us, let’s hope his goal is to win the Stanley Cup. (low AVV)

If he’s signing anywhere else, let’s hope he’s just greedy 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Could have performance bonuses on top (won’t lower the cap space this season but, given the team will be in to LTIR relief, vested bonuses will create a penalty for next season).

Of course, performance bonuses can only be attached to one-year 35 plus contracts.

OriginalPouzar

EW is so weird sometimes – the AAV would be lower with more term.

Material Elvis

Spector thinks Getzlaf is still an Olympic caliber top center. His performance on ON today was classic ‘this guy is great because he was great in the past’ rhetoric.

Bob: Chandler Stephenson put up 35 points in 51 games for Vegas this season. Those are second line center numbers.

Spector: (meh) They’re okay but those aren’t second line numbers on a *good* team.

Poor Spector was so caught up in his narrative, he failed to see the irony in his statement.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The classically myopic Spector spectacle.

JimmyV1965

I would think the Getzlaf deal would be very similar to the Statsny contract – one year at $3.75 mill.

Harpers Hair

Friedman reporting Nate Schmidt to Winnipeg for a 3rd round pick.

Apparently, Paul Stastny talked him into it.

Canucks now with $25 million in cap space.

leadfarmer

Only a year ago you were planning the parade and now he’s gone

Harpers Hair

CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) Tweeted:
Vancouver #Canucks update after trading D Nate Schmidt:

Cap space: $26,089,341
Roster size: 13 (9F – 3D – 1G)
LTIR candidate – Ferland $3.5M

RFAs:
F Pettersson
F Dickinson
F Jasek
D Hughes
D Juolevi
D Brisebois

https://t.co/xW2MYNLbt3

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1420180866219786243?s=20

pts2pndr

So Nate Smith only slightly more competent than Brogan Rafferty! You sure know how to call them I am surprised you haven’t been asked to scout for the Canucks with your innate instincts!

Scungilli Slushy

Benning can now make historically best bad decisions!!!!!!!

This blog is such a bizarre place.

buck yoakam

going into free agent frenzy with dough in the bank seems very weird…I have a feeling (don’t we all) that holland is going to surround our guys with some serious experience and fill the edges with our young prospects …that is exciting…lets go oilers!!

leadfarmer

I thought Mrazek would be a star
turned into a dud

OriginalPouzar

Seems like a solid tender most of the time – doesn’t quite seem like a dud to me.

He’s also only 29 – seems to me that its not out of the ordinary for goalies to play their bet hockey in their 30s.

Last edited 1 month ago by OriginalPouzar
leadfarmer

Well a dud may be too harsh but has definitely not been able to replicate that 23 year old season

pts2pndr

It is an extremely fine line between success and failure with health and being in the right place at the right time sometimes making the difference!

pts2pndr

I’m not sure. Would bet on that!😉

Darth Tu

I don’t think he’s a dud, he’s just been unlucky with injuries.