The 50-man Haircut

by Lowetide
Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson. Photo by Mark Williams

Ken Holland made an interesting move yesterday, qualifying Cooper Marody (among others) thus retaining his rights. What does that mean? Marody could be part of a trade in the next few days, or he could get a real shot at making the roster in the fall. Edmonton needs skill in the bottom six, Marody and Tyler Benson (also qualified) could be part of the solution. The team declined to qualify Jujhar Khaira and Dominik Kahun, one wonders if a contract for one or both gets signed in the coming days.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (38)

  • Goalies (6): Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
  • Left Defense (8): Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, Kris Russell, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Oscar Klefbom (inj)
  • Right Defense (5): Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
  • Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Tim Soderlund, Seth Griffith
  • Left Wing (7): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Devin Shore, Tyler Benson, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing (7): Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris, Josh Archibald, Cooper Marody, Kirill Maksimov

Theodor Lennstrom, Dominik Kahun and Jujhar Khaira were not qualified, my guess is player and team may circle back to see if there’s a match later in free agency.

50-MAN ON HOLLAND’S FIRST DAY (35)

  • Goalies (3): Mikko Koskinen, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner
  • Left Defense (8): Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Manning, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Keegan Lowe, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Right Defense (7): Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Joel Persson, Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Ryan Mantha
  • Center (6): Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kyle Brodziak, Colby Cave, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod
  • Left Wing (5): Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Tyler Benson, Nolan Vesey, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing (6): Zack Kassian, Sam Gagner, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Currie, Cameron Hebig, Kirill Maksimov

Olivier Rodrigue would be signed two weeks after Holland’s arrival, fair to call that deal to have been in the works previous to arrival. RFA’s were Tobias Rieder, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ty Rattie, Robin Norell and Shane Starrett.

UFA’s were Alex Chiasson, Kevin Gravel, Alex Petrovic, Anthony Stolarz, Brad Malone, Patrick Russell and Mitch Callahan.

We can discuss if or how much Holland has improved the roster, but Oilers fans these days have baked in opinions on everything so doubt we’ll move the chains.

For me, I think Holland’s big progress was watching over kids who emerged as solutions. Ethan Bear, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and now Bouchard, McLeod and possibly Benson and Marody represent good usage of the prospect pipeline. However, the big story in all of this is about to happen. In the coming hours:

  • James Neal buyout
  • Zach Hyman signing
  • Tyson Barrie signing
  • No. 1 goalie trade or signing (Linus Ullmark?)
  • RHD signing for second pair
  • No. 3 center trade or signing

Holland waited out several contracts and filled with low-cap solutions for two seasons, getting himself to free agency. He spent a substantial amount in assets and cap on Duncan Keith and that was an unusual decision based on Keith’s age and recent resume. I do think Keith will perform better than many expect, and would place him with Ethan Bear. Nurse and Bear may be the top pairing, with (say) Russell-Bouchard third pair. Who plays with Keith?

That is the question. Nick Jensen has been suggested, but I believe Holland would be looking for more of a shutdown type. Could Josh Manson be pried away from the Anaheim Ducks? And how about those Ryan Getzlaf rumours? Oilers are going to have 10 guys who qualify for the pension if this keeps going, but Getzlaf is the best available No. 3 center if he in fact would fly northeast.

I’m a fan of this move because it brings in a skilled player at no cost. Burns is a small playmaking center with great passing skills, he can also score goals. If Edmonton had chosen him in the seventh round no one would have flinched, so maybe they get him next draft. Either way, Edmonton is shopping in skill aisles consistently in procurement. That’s a good thing.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s going to be a massive day in the wide world of sports, we get only a two hour slice on the Lowdown but we get our swings in starting at 10, TSN1260. Gerry Moddejonge from PostMedia will talk Edmonton Elks and the CFL’s coming season, and Jason Gregor from TSN1260’s Jason Gregor Show will talk about all the loud noises that should be happening by 11 when he pops in. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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ArmchairGM

On Tatar, Bunting, Mike Reilly and Bernier.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/four-undervalued-ufas-bargains-free-agency-opens/

Bunting looks like a great buy-low candidate for 3LW. Reilly too, might be a good 3LD / cover for Keith on the cheap.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been mentioning Riley for a month plus now – figures he’s priced out of Edmonton with Keith.

LMHF#1

Random Nick Foligno possibly signing in Edmonton rumor today but I can’t find out more – anyone heard anything?

Last edited 2 months ago by LMHF#1
OriginalPouzar

That was a fake Pagnotta account.

leadfarmer

I would be shocked if he doesn’t return to Cbus
although Dubas may overpay to try to cover up his mistake

Sierra

Hey LT why is my post awaiting approval?

Last edited 2 months ago by Sierra
Harpers Hair

Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) Tweeted:
Hearing Luke Schenn connected to the Vancouver #Canucks on a two-year deal.

https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1419831376749244428?s=20

OriginalPouzar

As an Oiler fan, I approve.

Harpers Hair

Schenn can’t hear you..he has his 2 cup rings in his ears.

He’s a perfect partner for Jack Rathbone on the third pairing…6’2” 220 and a mean cuss.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, being the 8th in the regular season in d-men TOI at evens with 13.1% of his TOI vs. elites and then only making it in to 8 playoff games while his TOI/G at 5 on 5 was reduced to under 9 minutes….. I’ll take the champion on my rival. I look forward to him finding that form he had in 2018/19 in Vancouver – I’m sure he’s “better now”.

Harpers Hair

He was fine in his last short time in Vancouver.

David Quadrelli (@QuadreIli) Tweeted:
Mark me down as very much here for the #Canucks bringing back Luke Schenn. On a third pairing with Rathbone he’s going to provide similar stability that he provided Hughes early on in his career.

https://twitter.com/QuadreIli/status/1419868261018050560?s=20

Stick with your 38 year old dude at $5.5 million.

I’m sure that will work out fine with Kris Russell as a partner.

McNuge93

Thought Ekman Larson was the 3rd pairing D.

Harpers Hair

Hughes
OEL
Rathbone

OriginalPouzar

That is a lot of minuses…..

Ranford.85

I can’t wait to hear your excuses when the ‘$8.25 million for 6 more years’ 2LD gets overwhelmed and exposed yet again. You know, the defenseman that openly said he hasn’t been playing well for the past four years? Haha.

Harpers Hair

Actually, $7.25 million.

Very often, a player has much more success playing in a system that plays to their strengths.

The Canucks play a fast transition style while the Coyotes have been pretty much a trap style team.

Remember when so many of you derided the Canucks traded a first round pick for JT Miller who was playing on Tampa’s 3rd line and then exploded in Vancouver?

Likely the same result here.

jp

Remember when so many of you derided the Canucks traded a first round pick for JT Miller who was playing on Tampa’s 3rd line and then exploded in Vancouver?

I thought folks derided that because the Canucks weren’t close to contending. So throwing 1st round picks in a ‘win now’ move was totally pointless.

Judging from the OEL move I guess Jim Benning thinks the Canucks are still in their ‘window’ for contention. 🤷

leadfarmer

Fast transition style with no actual defense is his strength

jp

Thought Ekman Larson was the 3rd pairing D.

Man, that is one massive bet on a rebound from OEL.

Sending high picks in exchange for 6 years at $7.25M for a guy who’s slipped to playing 2nd pairing TOI and comp, and was at the absolute bottom of the list in pretty much every performance measure for the Coyotes 2 years running.

Looks like the Sedins are already having a positive impact in their new roles.

Bank Shot

Where is Rafferty going to fit in?

Harpers Hair

Mannheim.

jp

Mannheim.

ROY?

Harpers Hair

Scott Billeck (@ScottBilleck) Tweeted:
Paul Stastny not the only ball in the air tonight for the #NHLJets. Hearing the Jets are working on a deal with the #Caps for D Brenden Dillon.

Dillon, a LHD, played with Dylan DeMelo in San Jose.

https://twitter.com/ScottBilleck/status/1419822611823923206?s=20

Harpers Hair

Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) Tweeted:
Brenden Dillon traded to the Winnipeg Jets for two 2nd round picks.

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1419833677186576385?s=20

Harpers Hair

PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) Tweeted:
@DarrenDreger Brenden Dillon is a 30 y/o LD on Year 2/4 $3.9M Cap Hit Deal. His contract included a $2M Signing Bonus this year, so he has $1.1M of Salary left this year, followed by $5.5M 22-23 and $4M 23-24.

2G 19P in 56GP

Rep’d by Craig Oster @TheHockeyAgency 

https://t.co/82P5YYlpPm

https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1419834684582764546?s=20

leadfarmer

2 2nds to a team that had to dump cap. Ouch

Harpers Hair

Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) Tweeted:
Washington just serving as a temporary placeholder for those two Jets 2nd round picks until the Coyotes somehow acquire them

https://twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/1419836766756896768?s=20

OriginalPouzar

Dillon would have been a great get for the Oilers but that is an expensive price.

Dillon is a good player and, from Gregor’s accounts, absolutely loved in the room.

Jets got better today – they paid for it though.

Groggie

Haven’t heard. Who’s on waivers for buyout. Neil? Koskinen? Anyone else?

OriginalPouzar

Noone – the deadline is actually tomorrow.

They are actively trying to trade Neal.

Crazy Pedestrian

Deadline was extended due to Marody filing for arbitration

Last edited 2 months ago by Crazy Pedestrian
OriginalPouzar

Has Marody actually filed? I don’t think he has.

If he has/does, it doesn’t extend the deadline but it will create a second buyout window later in the summer.

leadfarmer

So how much are we offering Ryan Getzlaf?

OriginalPouzar

I hope not enough for him to leave the southwest USA.

Can’t imagine he comes for 1 X $2M and that’s the ceiling of my offers.

Randle McMurphy

How much do you think he’s asking for?

leadfarmer

Absolutely no idea

Harpers Hair

I’ve been meaning to mention this.

leadfarmer

Dang
Arizona is stealing Krakens lunch

Darth Tu

I drink your milkshake.

N64

Move players to reduce the expansion draft haul. Require a discount to assist Seattle reducing their D pile. Shop cap moves elsewhere more aggressively

You’d think Kraken are in everyone’s division the way GMs approach them. They learned something from the way they elevated Vegas.

leadfarmer

Also reportedly Francis ridiculous prices pissed off the other GMs

theWaxCollector

It would cost damn near $1500 to cut 50 men’s hair nowadays

PokeCheck

Arizona continues to be the Island of Misfit Toys:

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC

FLA/ARIZ deal is Stralman, Vladislav Kolyachonok (52nd in 2019), and a 2nd in 2024 for a 7th in 2023

leadfarmer

And sell him at trade deadline for another pick
Chayka did a number on that team

McSorley33

Florida going to make a run for Hamilton?

Last edited 2 months ago by McSorley33
leadfarmer

Looks that way

YKOil

Good deal for Arizona, as someone else mentioned – they are eating Seattle’s lunch.

godot10

What bad contract are we getting for Neal speculation.

Neal and Koskinen for Matt Duchene (50% retained) (I’d prefer Ryan Johansen to Duchene, but expect Poile wouldn’t go for that).

Elgin R

Duchene has 5 years left @ $8m per. Even at $4m he is not worth the money. Hopefully RNH will be 3C in a few years so where do you slot in Duchene. Run away from this.

JimmyV1965

Nick Ritchie not being qualified by the Bruins. The guy scored 15 goals last year. He’s never scored under 10. I would be very very interested

Randle McMurphy

Nick Ritchie might be a nice Kassian replacement.

godot10

How many Kassians does one team need? He is better than Kassian. Basically a more consistent Kassian.

Tampa has told us that these types of players, Patrick Maroon types, (when they are playing well) are 4th line players worth under $2 million per season.

JimmyV1965

That’s the thing. You can probably get him under $2 mill. Maybe not. Maybe the rangers offer stupid money.

Last edited 2 months ago by JimmyV1965
Reja

Rangers need someone can’t have another embarrassment like at the end of last year. Drury knows this as he has played the game if Holland wants to get out from under the Kassian contract now is the time

jp

Tampa has told us that these types of players, Patrick Maroon types,

Sorry, Maroon is a Kassian type player?

On some level, sure, but not really at all in the way you typically criticize Kassian…

SoCaloil

Rags have a Kassian. His name is Sammy Blais and he brings more every single night!

Darth Tu

Pius Suter – no qualifying offer from the Blackhawks (as per Charlie Roumeliotis). Surely there will be a bit of interest in him? 14 goals, 13 assists in 55 games last season. He was a dash 5, but it was the Blackhawks.

Harpers Hair

EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) Tweeted:
We have very exciting news to share with all of you! This past Friday was the last day at our respective day jobs. We are now full-time employees of Evolving Hockey! Going forward, maintaining, improving, and creating things for EH will be our full-time job. A thread…

https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1419753960924139529?s=20

MADOIL

Regarding the Hyman signing, must say that I am glad Holland didn’t give in to Dubas’s ask for a 2nd rounder for the signing rights. By being overly greedy, now he is not even getting a 5th / 6th rounder since from all reports Hyman will sign with the Oil on Wednesday.
Its funny how the eastern media says Dubas won’t bend a knee. Under these circumstance, I’d argue it is Holland who isn’t bending…

leadfarmer

and weren’t we told just a couple days ago that Dubas holds all the cards.

Harpers Hair

He still does.

Forcing Oilers to take on an extra $500K for 7 years.

leadfarmer

it makes the contract less expensive over the length and less risky

leadfarmer

And now he got greedy and will get nothing 🤷‍♂️

Harpers Hair

Name the last 7th round pick that played in the NHL.

leadfarmer

Olofsson
and you can get anywhere between 5th and 7th rounder for rights
while not amazing it’s sure better than nothing

leadfarmer

Especially for a Toronto team that has thrown away most of its picks already

Material Elvis

You can use those picks to trade up in the draft and/or acquire players at the deadline, too.

Reja

Doug Glimour

jp

Name the last 7th round pick that played in the NHL.

39 7th round picks played in the NHL last season. The most recent ones were drafted in 2017 (4 of them).

Notable 7th rounders currently in the league include Pavelski, Palat, Kubalik, Weegar, Hornqvist, Olofsson, Haula. Roy, Stralman, Braun, Khudobin. So yeah, pretty much worthless.

Rich M

Patrick Hornquist says hi.

€√¥£€^$

Anton Stralman, Palat, Justin Braun, are still viable NHL players and all were 7th rounders… and there several more.

I could list about 40 6th rounders.

Last edited 2 months ago by €√¥£€^$
maudite

far from last pick…but a quite notable one missing -> zetterburg

Darth Tu

This makes no logical sense.

pts2pndr

Check you meds!

Side

I recall you justifying rich contracts signed by other teams by saying “the cap will go up so it’s irrelevant”

And now you are acting as if $500k is going to be the end of the Oilers.

Sad.

Sierra

It’s laughable to suggest that Dubas has no leverage after so many championing “Cap Space is King” for so long. Narratives, eh?

TSN reporting that Dubas has interest in Mrazek. If true, it makes sense that Dubas wants the Oilers to take on more annual cap with the Hyman contract if he thinks he might be bidding against them for Mrazek.

Rich M

This is certainly the long game. Dubas may possibly be bidding against KH for another player and so if he feels this weakens his game he’s going to hold out.

Thing is, Holland may then be forced to buy out 2 bad contracts instead of one to create the necessary space so it may not be that big of a deal here, but it all goes back to GM’s are not going to do favors for each other.

YKOil

Yeah, I may have offered a 5th in 2022 and a 7th in 2024 but nothing higher than a 5th.

OriginalPouzar

Dubas has no cards – he either gets an asset (the 6th) or he gets nothing.

The Oilers are getting the player either way and, while the 8th year is preferred to get the cap down a bit, its not that material.

YKOil

Going to go further and say Dubas overplayed his hand.

Maybe that 2nd rounder happens if he offers up a 3rd?

There were ways to ‘win’ this for Toronto, imo, too bad that wasn’t his interest.

JimmyV1965

I’d rather go seven than eight. I’d rather just say no, but Holland.

Reja

Dubas embarrassed himself asking for a 2nd with him being a smart ass he put a big kick me sign on his back for the GM’s across the league.

OriginalPouzar

Markus Nutivaara, a recent 7th round pick, has played almost 250 NHL games – drafted in 2015.

The 2015 draft also had Marino, Appelton, Mangiapane and Gavrikov – all every day NHL players – legit players.

A 6th round pick is an asset and if Dubas gives up an opportunity to get one for free, he should be critisized.

treevojo

Dubas seems awfully angry lately.

I am pretty sure he recognizes that his teams best chance just went by and he is going to be looking for another job before 2023.

It all started when Marner’s agent made him bend the knee.

He seems like a bright guy and probably will do better with another shot in another organization.

But his anger has more to do with his own mistakes then anything else.

Toronto is hooped.

OriginalPouzar

I think it all started when he signed John Tavares who, of course, is a great player but he threw off their structure.

The Matthews and Marner contracts were awful – 5 year term for Matthews walking him right to UFA and not getting the AAV down for that? Geebus.

The panic Kadri trade on top.

treevojo

Lou will have the last laugh with regards to that contract.

In fairness to Kyle no one could have anticipated a pandemic to bring the salary cap to a screeching halt for 3 years.

The Mathews contract I can understand because of his star power.

But he got absolutely steam rolled by marner and his agent.

JimmyV1965

I was at a jays game in Toronto when they announced the signing, The 50,000 fans erupted with cheers. And all I could think is you’ve screwed up your contract negotiations with Mathews and Marner.

OriginalPouzar

Holland likely working hard to trade Neal.

Of course a trade would likely be much better than a buyout but a trade would almost certainly bring back or include “pain” – in the form of assets out to move the contract (look at what it cost to get rid of Leddy and Ghost), bad cap back (similar to taking the negative value Neal contract in the first place to get rid of Lucic) and/or retainment (including some sort of combo of the three).

An analysis will be made by Holland if the pain described above is more than the pain of $1.9M X 4 of pure dead cap.

YKOil

Given the timeframes involved, retaining half on Neal is worthwhile. Hell, I would even take back another 1 year Turris type deal (as long as I could bury it).

Having the Cap penalties all end as of the 2022-23 off-season would be worth it.

Amadeus

What happens if we retain half on Neal and then the other team buys him out? Would we still get hit with half the buyout?

OriginalPouzar

Yes.

Harpers Hair

Rick Dhaliwal (@DhaliwalSports) Tweeted:
Epp on UFA Hamonic – I am talking with the Canucks, the team likes the player and the player likes the team, we will see where it goes.

https://twitter.com/DhaliwalSports/status/1419740353121243137?s=20

jp

He’s not offended they brought in OEL?

Harpers Hair

Why would he be?

jp

Same reason you think Larsson was offended by Keith being brought in.

Harpers Hair

Very different situations.

Hamonic only spent one season with the Canucks who didn’t trade a 1st overall pick to acquire him.

Spartacus

What a putz.

OriginalPouzar

Whooosh…..

Randle McMurphy

Bob Stauffer pumping the tires of Cody Ceci.

John Chambers

Ceci had a good year in Pitt.

Of all the 2RD options, he might be best suited for the shut-down role amongst a group that may include Demers, Savard, Hjalmarsson, Hamonic, and weaker defensive options such as Barrie or Vatanen.

Good age. Good health. Good size. He’s just still trying to get rid of some of the stink from those putrid Ottawa years.

Ryan

Scratch Hjalmarsson off your list. He’s retired.

godot10

All the Oilers need is a big stay at home #3RD who can PK. Ceci should be able to fill that role.

Adding Ceci and McIlRath wouldn’t be a bad option.

Harpers Hair

Bouchard on the second pairing?

leadfarmer

the pairings will be more situation dependent than TOI
Keith would be a good mentor for Bouchard

godot10

Bouchard is the goods.

Reja

He should of been 3rd pairing 2nd PP minutes last year and possibly top 4 by the end of the year. For some reason he was benched for most of the year. I like Tippett but this is a close to a firing offence. Would he have made a difference in the Jets series, you damn rights he would have.

OriginalPouzar

Why don’t you ever acknowledge the actual reasons? You may not agree with their validity, and that can be discussed, but you simply ignore the completely obvious reasons for last year’s deployment.

Reja

He should of rotated the 4D Barrie, Larsson and Bear but Tippett never took the foot off the gas pedal and we got caved by a listless Jets team. Does Bouchard have a higher ceiling than Bear, yes he does in my opinion Bouchard is our best RD and it’s not even close. Sign Barrie and a thug to kill penalties and clear the front of the net. Mikko should of been in the Keith trade anyhow Bear and Mikko in a package deal. I’ll be happy to escort them both to the airport no charge.

jojonoshow

Should have*

McSorley33

McIlrath is not even an NHL player. Why do you keep pumping his tires?

He is 29 years old and has 66 NHL games played.

Drafted well over a decade ago – and even *then* he was considered slow.

JimmyV1965

That’s actually the best option I’ve heard so far

MADOIL

Is Ceci a UFA? if not, why would Pitt trade him? Aren’t they also in a win now mode?

ArmchairGM

He’s a UFA.

YKOil

Pending a review of the fancies I would have no big issues with Ceci.

Let’s face it folks, with

– the loss of Larsson and Klefbom,
– the price of UFA assets, and
– the lack of assets easily available for trade in the Oilers system

Just getting back to even on the roster AND adding in one more good player, will represent a victory for the Oil this year.

leadfarmer

We need a 20 min a night D that can PK and play defensive minutes

OriginalPouzar

So was Gregor on with LT this morning.

Coiler

Ugh…saw him play consistently in Ottawa and Toronto. In the words of Obi Wan, this is not the defenceman you’re looking for.
Very soft and his gaffes are telegraphed from the edges of the galaxy. Stay away from Ceci.

Tarkus

If the Oilers sign Ceci, I hope he wears #10–I enjoy that band.

SoCaloil

I’m ok w/ Ceci. He played reasonably well last year

Spartacus

Good stuff.

Dreadlock Holiday, mon.

Bobcaygeon

Manson would be fantastic on the 2nd pairing or even playing with Nurse.

Randle McMurphy

What an important year this is for Ethan Bear.

His 24 year old season. RFA next season.

Was tracking beautifully before getting injured. Had a down season.

I’d be excited to see him paired with either Keith or Nurse.

Todd Macallan

Tyler Wright on w/ Bob now reviewing the picks. Sounds like they thought about Wallstedt (said something like “we spent more time talking about goalies in our meetings than ever”), stated they had a group of 3 at 19 so they knew they’d get 1 they like at 21 w/ the trade down.

Also of interest, Shane Lachance will be playing this season in the USHL w/ Youngstown before joining BU next year. Good news, did not think he’d develop as much playing prep another year.

Ryan

Friedman is predicting Forbort ends up in Boston.

That’s too bad, if so.

We could use a Forbort.

Oil2Oilers

Free agent signings I would like the Oilers to make;

Tartar 1 X $4M
Galchenyuk 2 X $2M

Erik Gudbranson 3 X $4M

Bring up Holloway in the playoffs to cover Tartar’s perceived weakness.

And for Gords sake find a Goalie even though money is to tight to mention.

If Keith and Smith retire to the Okanagan next summer the Oilers might have the cap room to sign the $8M to $9M in combined raises likely needed to keep Nurse, Bear and Puljujarvi. Locking in some of these #s this summer seems prudent.

JimmyV1965

I would be okay with any of those guys, but for one year only. There’s other options. In fact, the only guy I would even consider at two years is Tatar.

ArmchairGM

Neal buyout + Koskinen contract expiring + Keith retirement + Smith retirement equals something like $17M in cap space I think. In this scenario the Oilers could be big buyers in 2022 as well…

Alpine

Big overpay for Gudbranson. Didn’t even play top four last year.

Oil2Oilers

Agreed, I would prefer 1/2 that but the RHD market is bananas this summer

McSorley33

In general, I have not been a fan – at all of Gudbranson – but would entertain the idea of him as a very short term – 3rd pairing / PK role.

Might tick that team toughness box as well.

Problem is he gets crushed against elites. Might be tough to hide
on the road.

OriginalPouzar

Smith makes more money than Keith next season.

I dont think Smith is retiring.

With respect to Keith, retiring after this season opens up apx $9.5M in cap space and he only makes $1.5M next season.

There is a non-zero chance of a Keith retirement but it would also screw the Hawks and I doubt he wants to do that to them.

Harpers Hair

KHL DIARIES (@vorkywh24) Tweeted:
According to @hockey_se & @Artur_Khairul, former @Canucks F Jake Virtanen has #KHL offers. #Canucks #NHL #HockeyTwitter

https://twitter.com/vorkywh24/status/1419716612119203850?s=20

Spartacus

Breaking News: DSF is a dipshit.

Details at 11.

Randle McMurphy

Lot’s of goalies available. Good year to plug that hole. But they will go fast. We are at a disadvantage compared to many teams as we are handcuffed by Koskinen.

It’s not ideal or popular. But keeping Neal and Koskinen, you still make the playoffs and you don’t give up any assets to move these contracts.

Neal buyout next year pays for raises for two players.

Smith Koskinen tandem, is above average for the regular season. Try and get Skinner or Konovalov some games this year.

Fiveinatrailer

Even though Smith is scheduled to be the backup according to salary and age, I can’t understand why they didn’t just pencil in koski as the backup and save the 2m from smiths contract and go after a better starter?

if koski is just a bit less than smith in ability, does it really matter THAT much for backup games?

the Smith signing tells me that they are going to do the exact same thing as last year if they can’t trade koski.

Randle McMurphy

As it stands now, Mike Smith is scheduled to be the starter.

Top 10 goalie last season by several metrics.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Fiveinatrailer

True and if he can also stop old man time then it’s a great bet.

but I wonder how he would feel if we manage to trade koski and then sign a younger starter?

(if you have to ask the question…)

jp

He sort of talked about that (not fully directly) in his interview after signing. Seemed pretty clear he was willing to do whatever he needed to to help the team, including backing up if the team brings in someone else (which seems pretty certain whether it’s this season or next).

Todd Macallan

Bourgault on w/ Bob just now. GREAT kid. Has already gotten texts from McD, Leon and Nurse to welcome him to the team.

Bob also just answered my earlier question and the Rookie camp is starting in mid-Sept. No mention of an earlier Dev’t. Camp tho.

McSorley33

Thanks – I was wondering on the rookie thing as well.

OriginalPouzar

Development camp is normally like days after the draft so I presume its not happening this year.

Alpine

Im hoping Heinen doesn’t get qualified by the Ducks. Would be a nice third liner to have, and the Oilers were rumoured to have liked him before.

I’m cautiously looking forward to see what small-medium moves this team makes, even if I’m skeptical of their target selection. After a few years without cap space, I wonder if they can actually fix the bottom six to some extent.

Alpine

And now one of Tyler Wright’s first round picks has gone unqualified by Yzerman…

Svechnikov did have a decent 20 game cameo last season.

Last edited 2 months ago by Alpine
JimmyV1965

To be fair, he’s had multiple injuries that have totally derailed his career. Scored 20 his first year in the AHL and has never been the same since.

€√¥£€^$

I can see Holland signing him ala Jurco.

OriginalPouzar

I still can’t get on board with a Tyson Barrie re-sign even if the AAV isn’t egregious (i.e. under $5M). Something needs to happen on the right side but that’s not the right player for the now or the next 2-3 years. Taking away “at bats” from Bouchard to keep his 2nd contract cheaper does not jive for me. Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard can be the main PP d-men. Lets not forget, Ethan Bear scored many PP goals in junior.

Josh Mason, on his current one-year contract would be an ideal acquisition for me. Yes, I know, he’s had recent struggles away from Lindholm but I would make the bet – much better than David Savard in my opinion (even taking away he’ll require term to sign). Main issue is acquisition cost – Seravelli reporting a a few days ago that the Ducks are looking for a 1st rounder for Manson. No thank you without an extension and I don’t want an extension at this point.

Harpers Hair

Savard likely to sign in Montreal from various reports.

leadfarmer

Good good

TheGreatBigMac

My biggest worry is that things will move fast in free agency and there won’t be anything resembling a reasonable option when the music stops. Something like goalies last year but without the Smith fallback.

Hamonic 2.5×2 seems like the fallback but maybe he goes quickly too.

godot10

If Hamonic wants to stay in Western Canada, he doesn’t have many options level, other than Edmonton.

Harpers Hair

Hamonic has said he’s open to other markets.

Reja

If they sign Barrie on a deal then package Bear and Mikko for a a goalie or 3C then sign a stay a home D with some chops I’ll be happy. Bear just doesn’t bring enough offensive creativity and muscle. With the Caleb trade Bear is one of the few players that have any trade value on this team.

godot10

With similar deployment, the team scores as much with Bear on the ice as with Barrie.

Why play $3 million more per season for mere illusions of offense?

ArmchairGM

McDavid with Barrie: 4.09 GF/60 – 3.34 GA/60 = +0.75 GD/60
McDavid w/o Barrie: 4.10 GF/60 – 2.68 GA/60 = +1.42 GD/60

Barrie doesn’t improve McDavid’s output while dragging him down defensively.

McDavid with Bear: 4.38 GF/60 – 3.03 GA/60 = +1.35 GD/60
McDavid w/o Bear: 4.03 GF/60 – 3.08 GA/60 = +0.95 GD/60

McDavid does better with Bear offensively and is about the same defensively. Maybe that was just luck though – lets check xG to see.

McDavid with Barrie: 2.71 xGF/60 – 2.60 xGA/60 = +0.11 xGD/60
McDavid w/o Barrie: 3.38 xGF/60 – 1.83 xGA/60 = +1.55 xGD/60

McDavid with Bear: 4.12 xGF/60 – 1.67 xGA/60 = +2.45 xGD/60
McDavid w/o Bear: 2.71 xGF/60 – 2.43 xGA/60 = +0.28 xGD/60

Ouch.

Last edited 2 months ago by ArmchairGM
jm363561

Great post. As you say .. ouch. Are the Bear figures for last season only?

ArmchairGM

Yes, all figures are 20-21.

McSorley33

Barrie is 30 and cannot be much of a solution.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t qualify Marody.

There is zero “arbitration risk” given he hasn’t even been playing in the NHL so there is no reason to let him walk to UFA unless they are just doing a favor to a player that has zero future. He is likely a reach to play for the Oilers but, you never know, he could have a great camp and stick as some RW depth with skill. If nothing else, subject to being claimed on waivers, he is an elite AHL player that helps that team and provides a linemate for the likes of Lavoie, Holloway, Maksimov, etc.

I think Holland will continue to try and get JJ signed for $1M or under but I presume the player may want to move on and will likely get some offers – I assume he sails on which will disappoint me slightly.

Harpers Hair

Rick Dhaliwal (@DhaliwalSports) Tweeted:
Friedman on Holtby – They are having a tough time moving him because they wont give something up. There is interest in Holtby – Col, Tor, Phill, Buf.

https://twitter.com/DhaliwalSports/status/1419721613411450881?s=20

Harpers Hair
leadfarmer

I must have missed the 3 mil a year contract for Grubauer in there

Harpers Hair

Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) Tweeted:
Former #mnwild defenseman Ryan Suter still mulling over multiple opportunities and is expected to make decision on his next team by early Wednesday morning. He’s got multiple multi-year options; 4 years seems likely. Believed Dallas, FLA, others, still in the mix

https://twitter.com/RussoHockey/status/1419704352776744964?s=20

leadfarmer

a 35+ contract taking a player well into 41
Gonna have to take Spurgeon out for dinner

OriginalPouzar

I sure hope its front-loaded so that its almost impossible to receive cap relief.

McSorley33

We will see how it works out but this is how you add to your top 9 forward group.

Panthers added Sam Bennett
Panthers added Sam Reinhart
Panthers appear to pencil in Anton Lundell at 3C next year.
( some think he has upside to become a 1C- 2020 – #12 overall pick)

Of course, their D core does not really look great – especially if
Ekblad is not 100% healthy

Also, you draft Spencer Knight – but you sign Goalie Bob to an outrageous contract that goes for another half decade.

Harpers Hair

And Duclair and Verhage a bit earlier.

McSorley33

Good points.

Holland needs to fix the bottom 6 here this summer. Or at the very least
make meaningful improvements.

Harpers Hair
Durag

Dougie Hamilton to New Jersey? Seems like an odd move at his age to sign a big deal with a team that far away from contention.

Reja

He seems to beat to his own drum.

leadfarmer

Anti Raanta as Carolina starter?
oh boy

Randle McMurphy

With Nurse, JP, McLeod, Bear all needing raises in 2022, at some point it might become prudent to hang on to James Neal for one more year.

Buy him out next year, and use the cap savings to pay for the raises of two players.

Randle McMurphy

Would James Neal accept a bottom 6 (possibly 4th line) mentorship role with some minimal PP time? Ala Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza etc

OldschoolAlpines

Sure but they make league minimum doing it

Randle McMurphy

They didn’t trade for Milan Lucic.

flea

Yeah that is the issue, the Oilers could have 3 veteran mentors for the bottom 6 for the buyout savings on James Neal.

With that said, Neal has struggled with injuries. He’s been decent for this team when healthy. If they don’t buy him out,
my guess is LTIR is a possibility. The Oilers just won’t accrue any cap space in that scenario. (no way to get day 1 complaint with Neal and Klefbom on the LTIR)

That really limits their deadline options (we’ve heard money in/money out before)

Kraz

Marody filed for arbitration so another buyout window will open according to Gregor

Moonlight Overthrow

*wipes sweat from brow*

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think this has happened. I think Gregor was putting out the potential – he’s weeks late on the concept though as I had proposed the ideal of qualifying Khaira but having a deal done – telling him to file for arb and then “settling” prior to the case – even posted that on one of Gregor’s blogs.

Spartacus

Yes. You invented the idea.

OriginalPouzar

Neal not on waivers this morning which means he can’t be bought out. Gregor was stating they were working on trading him over the weekend. Interesting.

McNuge93

Wow, that’s really concerning. If a trade cant be worked out then we are stuck him another year and less cap room to maneuver this year.

leadfarmer

Wonder if they try to burn another year

JOFA

Ugly contract coming back if that’s the case. Buckle up!

Last edited 2 months ago by JOFA
JOFA

Tomorrow still an option apparently.

Todd Macallan

LT just mentioned on air that Marody has arb rights which in theory could open up another buy out window.

godot10

Deleted post

Last edited 2 months ago by godot10
Trevor457

Would a Neal for Tyler Johnson trade make sense? Tampa benefits from a more favourable buy out, and Edmonton saves a little off the cap, and gets a potentially useful 3rd liner.

Elgin R

Johnson showed in the playoffs that he is still a useful player. The 3rd year of his contract is a concern though and the Neal vs Johnson buyout would be a benefit to Tampa. If Hollands does this then Turris is in the minors or traded which may not be a bad thing. Johnson is basically a career 50% faceoff guy who won almost 55% last year. The problem is that he does not PK – just 1.12 minutes per game in a 589 game career. If Tampa adds a sweetener then would have to consider it.

MushedPeas

definitely, imo.

ArmchairGM

Is the Neal buyout more favorable than a Johnson buyout though? Neal is $1.9M next year and an average of $1.9M x 4 years, Johnson is $1.1M next year and an average of $1.72M x 6 years. Other than 2022-23, Johnson’s buyout is cheaper every year (although longer).

Moonlight Overthrow

It would be an unexpected turn of events. Is 50% retention for 2 years (trade) better than a $1.9M cap hit for 4 years (buyout)? Likely a bad contract coming back the other way as well.

OriginalPouzar

It would be an unexpected turn of events. Is 50% retention for 2 years (trade) better than a $1.9M cap hit for 4 years (buyout)? Likely a bad contract coming back the other way as well.

100% that’s way better but I don’t think he’s tradeable straight up with 50% retained – I think assets would have to go with (or bad cap back).

Mikko “might” be tradeable with 50% retained but I don’t think Neal is – it would take more.

Eh Team
Gerta Rauss

thanks for that..I get that mixed up every year LoL

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I had bad info when I posted – I apologize and I feel shame.

leadfarmer

Martinez sounds like staying put 5 mil per x 3
this is gonna be a thin free agent pool

Harpers Hair

David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) Tweeted:
It’s a 4-year, $17.6M deal for Bennett and Florida. Up from what was first put on the table from FLA. Solid deal for Bennett

https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1419688112456876036?s=20

ArmchairGM

If Holland signs Barrie on top of the rumored Hyman deal, he doesn’t have room to bring in a starting goalie like Ullmark.

I could see:

1) Neal buyout
2) Hyman $5.5M x 7
3) cheap defense additions like Hamonic ($2M) and a 3LD ($1M)
4) cheap 3C addition like Haula ($2M)

This leaves about $6M in cap space, not enough to sign Barrie AND an upgrade in another area. Saad, Barrie, Ullmark etc are mutually exclusive IMO.

Spend wisely, Ken.

Durag

I wonder if a goalie comes via trade. Something around Kassian for Georgiev saves about a million in cap, which then likely gets retained in a Koskinen trade.

TheGreatBigMac

Most likely scenario, Koski stays.

leadfarmer

I would rather up the AAV and shave a year off the buyout at the end

jp

If Holland signs Barrie on top of the rumored Hyman deal, he doesn’t have room to bring in a starting goalie like Ullmark.

I disagree.

Even in your scenario Barrie instead of Hamonic only costs $2.5M (?) more. So you’ve got $3.5M left.

Being able to move Koskinen at 50% retained or not adding Haula opens up enough to sign Ullmark (if he’s willing) for $4-4.5M in addition to Barrie.

ArmchairGM

And then who plays center in the bottom-6? They need to sign someone for that position.

You can’t just “not add” Haula or similar.

Last edited 2 months ago by ArmchairGM
jp

Koskinen moved OR ‘not add’ a 3C, as I said.

I built a capfriendly roster (23 players, cap compliant) with:
Hyman at $5.5
Barrie at $4.5
Ullmark at $4.5
Haula at $2.0

Neal was bought out and Koskinen moved at 50% (attaching a 4th round pick). IMO that’s realistic.

There’s also other possible moves that could reduce cap (Kassian trade, Turris with a pick attached).

Beyond that, yeah I think you could just ‘not add’ a 3C add. When Holland has talked about offseason priorities it’s been top 6 forward and top 4 D. Not much mention about 3C (or G for that matter).

In fact he’s talked about internal growth multiple times when asked about the bottom 6.

I think everyone (us, Holland, Tippett, the players) would love to add all of top 6F, top 4D, 1A goalie and 3C. But they might not all happen. Seems like 3C is towards the bottom of Holland’s list.

I still think it’s possible to add Haula or similar for around $2M, but it’s also possible the bottom 6 is again duct tape and twine, and kids.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
ArmchairGM

If they don’t add a bottom-6 center then the center depth chart is

McDavid
Draisaitl
McLeod

That’s just 3 guys for 4 spots. Unless you think Marody or Holloway get this roster spot by default, a signing is necessary.

OriginalPouzar

I wouldn’t discount the possibility of adding another top 6 winger and having Nuge place 3C. Something like a Tatar if he is indeed willing to do the very short term deal for apx $3.5M.

No, I’m not concerned about Nuge’s ice time as a 3C – he plays on both special teams. I’m also not concerned about a $5M player on the “third line” – its all about roster construction and deployment within the overall cap.

With that said, I don’t think this happens.

jp

In both of my comments I said I believe the Oilers can sign all of Barrie, Ullmark (goalie for $4-4.5M) and Haula (3C around $2M). That’s the reason I replied and the main point of my posts.

You seem hung up on the suggestion that Oilers might not add a 3C. On that,

1) I think it’s almost certain they add some sort of C this summer. Whether that player will make $2M(+?) or $1M is less clear. Obviously I’m not suggesting they start the season with only 3 centers. The guys in the $1M pile are unlikely to be decent 3Cs, but they also cost (essentially) nothing over the 23 that are penciled into the current roster so there is zero issue adding another Khaira type center who can help.

2) The Oilers have more internal options than you’re listing. Shore plays C. As OP mentioned, Nuge is also a conceivable option. And while both are long shots, it is possible that Holloway or Marody do end up playing C in the bottom 6.

So yeah, I think the team likely CAN afford a Haula type 3C, even if they sign Barrie. If not there will surely be a cheaper C added. And just maybe (by far the least likely IMO) Holland actually wants to let more than one of McLeod, Marody, Holloway get to learning how to play hockey in the NHL.

Even in that final scenario, adding a 3C during the year is a fall-back. The Oilers don’t need their bottom 6 to break even to make the post season, though they clearly need for it to be better to have success once they get there.

OriginalPouzar

Also, Kyle Turris….. I only partially jest.

I don’t see him as a center going forward but I wouldn’t rule out a good camp and a partial rebound. He’s stayed in Edmonton and, from accounts, training hard (along with Samorukov, also in Edmonton).

We should not discount the effect of the Covid-season on any particular player (restrictions, away from family, etc.), in particular, those that actually got Covid like Turris.

Holland can’t go in to camp counting on Turris with a roster or lineup spot but I think the player is motivated and could be an option on the wing.

jp

Yeah I almost mentioned him. Unlikely, but you never know.

Darth Tu

For the social media peeps, the Oilers instagram account has shared a “happy birthday” post for Tyson Barrie on their main grid. Guess that means the deal is done or close to done.

koskidaddy

He’s technically still an Oiler until July 28, so they still have to wish him a happy birthday. That doesn’t mean anything, the social media admin doesn’t have sources.

Darth Tu

I’m just excited to see him re-signed I guess. Let’s get moving here.

leadfarmer

How dare they wish someone happy birthday

Darth Tu

And not say congratulations on the birth of his kid as well. How rude.

OriginalPouzar

Just wait until the happy b-day message to Blumel…….

Darth Tu

Too soon for the Oilers fan base!

Todd Macallan

Does anyone know if there will be some form or rookie or dev’t camp sometime this summer for the Oilers? I believe I’ve already heard there will be no summer rookie tourney.

Last edited 2 months ago by Todd Macallan
McSorley33

Good question…..

YYCOil

Was told by Harper’s Hair last week there was no Penticton rookie tournament … I booed him 🙂

€√¥£€^$

No Development camps, possibly rookie tourneys in the US, nothing for the Oilers yutes scheduled.

buck yoakam

I find it very encouraging that some of our prospects (short and longer term) are going to have a legitimate chance to prove they are nhl ready this season!…it seems we are always looking at the other teams kids and wondering why not us…this is the time for Morody and Benson to make their move and I hope with this in mind these kids have been working their tails off in preparation…nice to have a full camp with lots of competition for positions…lets go oilers!

McNuge93

Are Benson and Marody still considered ‘kids’? I kid. More so encouraged by McLeod, Lavoie, Holloway, Sammy and Broberg as our kids.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, Benson is still considered a prospect for sure – he’s just off his ELC. Really the only reason he wasn’t able to crack the roster last year was damn Covid-complications – 1 week camp and no exhibition games so no ability to have “training camp battles” and no access to timely recalls.

Benson should be given every opportunity at camp this September/October.

YYCOil

Holland’s plan is coming into better light – and many of the insiders got it very wrong – what is the percentage these guys have it right?

1.Keith trade probably was a much more competitive trade than we were told;

a. July 13 – Edm. signs Keith for $5.5×2, which is a high AAV –
b. July 21 -Calgary lost a 37 year, $6.75M x1 LHD Gio in the expansion draft – Keith would have been cheaper than Gio and would make the Flames defense much better.
c. July 21 – lose Larsson to Kraken
d. July 23- Vancouver signs OEL a 30 year, $7.2Mx6 LHD defenseman, they would have been exploring Keith much cheaper and only 2 years
e.4-6 defenseman are signed or trade for NEW high water mark prices

2.Shore signing was to replace JJK and ensure they save $.350M in AAV

3.Marody get a QO, give McDavid and Draisaitl with Cover 35 of 60 minutes, There is 10 minutes of specialty team plan McLeod and Marody can cover the balance of TOI and be additive

pts2pndr

You are forgetting that Chicago needed to move him before the expansion draft and they wanted Jones to aid in getting his brother. While Holland’s deal may look better in hindsight you have neglected some of the underlying pressures on Chicago to get the deal done early!

OriginalPouzar

The expansion draft was really a non-factor. Their rest of their protected list doesn’t change with or without the trade – they protected Jones. If the trade wasn’t made, they just protect Keith and the rest remains the same. Hawks could have made the trade after.

YYCOil

Why did Chicago NEED this deal done before expansion draft? Given the all the expensive Dman deals since the Keith trade, maybe Chicago could have secured an “A” prospect or 2 second round pick, If they waited.
If Caleb was an Oiler today and not in Chicago so you really think the Jones camp turns down the offer from Bowman.

Darth Tu

Great news on Marody. I’d like to see him stick for camp rather than be traded out, maybe there’s a home for him with Benson and McLeod…. I did really enjoy those players in Bakersfield the last couple of years.

I’d love for us to get Ullmark, but if not he, then Mrazek would be fine (injuries are a concern though). I’m also not sure that the Hurricanes don’t circle back for him now that Nedel has been moved to Detroit. Reimer and Bernier as a goalie tandem doesn’t seem like a very Carolina like decision…

Hyman, I’ve resigned myself to that’s who we’re getting. The term will be too long and that stings. But, he is a good player and I’m betting we get a good 3 years out of him. What we need is the contract to be moveable either in trade or buyout once it turns into a boat anchor. Please no NMC or NTCs – if we’re giving him term and dollars those should be off the table.

Foligno instead of Getzlaf? There seems to be some noise about that on the old twitter. Pricier contract wise and would likely involve something going back out.

Todd Macallan

There was a confirmed fake Fourth Period twitter acct that mentioned Foligno to Oilers at 4 yrs x 4-4.5 mil if that’s what you’re referring to.

Last edited 2 months ago by Todd Macallan
Darth Tu

K – must have been that that I saw people talking about.

McNuge93

Must have been HH setting up that fake account.

meanashell11

He’s really good at setting up several accounts under different names.

OriginalPouzar

I think the Canes are in discussion with Mrazek and Bernier and are letting Reimer go to market.

I’m not adverse to kicking tires on Frederick A. – I think he’s a good goalie that had a tough year while dealing with injuries. Maybe he’d be willing to sign a one-year deal for $3M-$4M to try and re-establish himself.

koskidaddy

Per Seravalli, Coleman is looking for $5M x 6 years. That dream might be dead.

It seems that every player that won a Cup is looking for really long term and more money that they’re worth. I’m calling it the cup tax.

ArmchairGM

After seeing that horrible Goodrow contract, he should be asking for $5M. I wouldn’t pay it, but perhaps someone will.

Todd Macallan

Huh, it’s close but I think I may prefer the reported 7 x 5.5 we will soon be giving Hyman.

cowboy bill

I’m ok with Hyman at $5.5M x7 . But Coleman at $5M x6 , that would be even better and they are very similar players . The other thing is Hyman seems to want to be an Oiler and that is what this is all about ,

Randle McMurphy

Define similar.

OriginalPouzar

I think that dream was replaced with a Hyman reality.

As I said previously:

Goodrow got the Coleman contract
Coleman will get the Hyman contract
Hyman is going to get the Landeskog contract