How often does a rookie NHL forward post a poor offensive season and then recover enough to play on a high skill line? Let’s use 1.50 even strength points per 60. Did Ales Hemsky post a low number early and then improve? Gagner? Hall? Or do the offensive forwards show themselves early, like right out of the box?
THE ATHLETIC!
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2000-01 (Oilers scored 243 goals)
- Mike Comrie 2.52
- Shawn Horcoff 2.24
- Dom Pittis 1.24
- Brian Swanson 0.82 (small sample)
- Michel Riesen 0.63 (small sample)
The two men who would enjoy careers of some length (over 500 games) showed up immediately and had an impact. Reminder, these are even strength totals.
2001-02 (Oilers scored 205 goals)
- Jason Chimera 1.65 (small sample)
- Brian Swanson 0.98 (small sample)
- Jani Rita 0 (small sample)
Chimera was not a promising scorer at 20 in the AHL but he got better every year. He was a burner too, and that helped.
2002-03 (Oilers scored 231 goals)
- Ales Hemsky 2.26
- Jani Rita 2.22 (small sample)
- Fernando Pisani 2.13
- Jarret Stoll 2.00 (small sample)
- Jason Chimera 1.90
Hemsky was a teenager but my God he had ridiculous skill. Pisani took about 50 games to find the range in the AHL and then he figured out how to score goals at the highest level. Stoll had early success and Chimera again unlocked enough offense to survive in the league.
2003-04 (Oilers scored 221 goals)
- Jarret Stoll 1.39
- Peter Sarno 1.19 (small sample)
- Mike Bishai 0.98
- Tony Salmelainen 0.51 (small sample)
- Jani Rita 0 (small sample)
Stoll is a little shy here but he grabbed a lot from his point shot on the power play so wasn’t in offensive jeopardy until later in his career.
2005-06 (Oilers scored 256 goals)
- Marc Pouliot 0.92 (small sample)
- Brad Winchester 0.54 (small sample)
- Kyle Brodziak 0.00 (small sample)
- Jean Francois Jacques 0.00 (small sample)
This is the season Edmonton had the Stanley run, not much room for rookies but Pouliot had a shot until mono derailed him.
2006-07 (Oilers scored 195 goals)
- Brad Winchester 1.19
- Marc Pouliot 1.17
- Patrick Thoresen 1.15
- Zach Stortini 0.31
- JF Jacques 0.00
That damnable points per 60 is the prospect separator alright, large pack of geese flying south here.
2007-08 (Oilers scored 220 goals)
- Curtis Glencross 2.93
- Andrew Cogliano 2.37
- Sam Gagner 1.97
A trio of men who could deliver offense as rookies, Cogliano has passed 1,000 games and Gagner is well over 800. None of the three worked out as hoped for the Oilers but they arrived with plenty of offensive ability.
2008-09 (Oilers scored 228 goals)
- Rob Schremp 4.19 (small sample)
- Liam Reddox 1.56
Reddox was a surprising player, he did some good things despite being undersized and a tweener. He got into 100 NHL games. Schremp had mad skills, but two strikes (he wasn’t fast and he wasn’t so gifted that the coach would overlook his indifferent checking) kept him out of the league save for a little over 100 games. In the right situation, he could have had an NHL career.
2009-10 (Oilers scored 206 goals)
- Ryan Stone 1.32
He was a trade pickup and had some good games, but wingers on the Oilers were about to get a lot of qualified competition.
2010-11 (Oilers scored 191 goals)
- Taylor Hall 1.85
- Jordan Eberle 1.81
- Linus Omark 1.76
- Magnus Paajarvi 1.39
- Ryan O’Marra 1.10
- Teemu Hartikainen 1.01
- Chris VandeVelde 0.70
Brilliant talents led by Hall and Eberle, the team overall was beyond terrible but the kids had all kinds of ability. Remain surprised at how Omark, Paajarvi, Hartikainen and VandeVelde’s careers rolled out, good and bad.
2011-12 (Oilers scored 207 goals)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.93
- Chris VandeVelde 1.51 (small sample)
- Teemu Hartikainen 1.36
- Ryan O’Marra 0.96
- Anton Lander 0.60
Nuge arrived with all kinds of talent and scored well at evens, better on the power play. VandeVelde showed well in a small sample size.
2012-13 (Oilers scored 123 goals)
- Nail Yakupov 2.18
He had a tremendous finish to his rookie season, missed a lot of appreciation because so much happened so late. Management and coaching change, erratic shot obscured a useful offensive weapon.
2013-14 (Oilers scored 199 goals)
- Mark Arcobello 1.79 (small sample)
- Tyler Pitlick 0.67 (small sample)
- Luke Gazdic 0.62
Arcobello signed a two-way (AHL-ECHL) contract coming out of college, he was below the Zamboni driver on the depth chart. He worked his way up and played extremely well in his NHL debut.
2014-15 (Oilers scored 193 goals)
- Andrew Miller 2.43 (small sample)
- Leon Draisaitl 1.05
- Tyler Pitlick 0.58
- Iiro Pakarinen 0.38
The Leon Draisaitl number is misleading, he played in bad luck and then got sent down. He’s an example of a player posting less than 1.50 per season and then blossoming. However, he’s innocent (with an explanation). He’s also the only true example of what I described at the beginning of this conversation on the entire list.
2015-16 (Oilers scored 192 goals)
- Connor McDavid 3.00
- Iiro Pakarinen 1.14
- Jujhar Khaira 0.78 (small sample)
- Anton Slepyshev 0.64 (small sample)
McDavid being the class of the group is the least surprising number on this list. Beyond reason as a hockey player. Pakarinen had a surprising shot, he beat goalies clean a few times.
2016-17 (Oilers scored 243 goals)
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.44
- Anton Slepyshev 1.33
- Drake Caggiula 1.10
- Jujhar Khaira 0.66
Notice the massive jump in goals by the team in McDavid’s first full season, and by this time Draisaitl is having a major impact. The Puljujarvi number is encouraging, not so far from 1.50 and remember he was a teenager.
2017-18 (Oilers scored 229 goals)
- Pontus Aberg 1.94
- Kailer Yamamoto 0.97
Aberg looked good but he couldn’t remain in the lineup due to off-ice issues, and Yamamoto was too young to be in the league.
2018-19 (Oilers scored 229 goals)
- Josh Currie 1.65
- Joe Gambardella 1.48
- Colby Cave 0.52
- Kailer Yamamoto 0.30
Currie looked good, always wondered if the team should have given him another shot. Gambardella showed well too, another guy who might be worth a long look.
2019-20 (Oilers scored 223 goals)
- Tyler Benson 0.87
He settled in after a few uneven games, I’m hopeful he finds a way to get a full season of NHL hockey in with the Oilers before they have to make a decision on him. Final year of waiver ineligibility is coming up. Is he established enough to clear that bar? I think he needs to show a few things before that point is reached.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
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Ya, the quote thing i messed up.
Ummm, maybe, in reference to?
OriginalPouzar,
Hey bro, could you shoot me you email, eclipseconsultingltd@live.com
Thanks bud
————————————
Never mind.
Wow. Opposite George. From all black to all white.
It will take a little getting used to (if this is the new format) but it looks good.
One thing I notice is there’s no distinction between a quoted comment and the reply.
I think I’m getting used to this already.
Warms the cockles of my heart.
Thanks for the link.
It would also be a fricking great result for the Oilers if Lagesson is the player Seattle selects.
Might I ask why you call it the AIK?
Sammy doing what he does best, stepping up to aggressively defend the blue line:
https://twitter.com/hccska/status/1321882906126618627?s=21
I don’t think that panned out quite as the Kniggits thought it would.
Trades are so sticky for most teams the narratives around them have changed, including drafting BPA, and it is because cap and Bettman’s successful equalization of the league. Cap and Bettman points have given every mook a Lloyd Christmas chance at the playoffs.
Also, I was giving you a jab. ?
He’ll be exposed in the expansion draft even if he signs a one-year deal – Seattle would be able to claim his RFA rights if they so chose.
Nope, no idea….
Of his own making, right?
He wasn’t the money but the cap contracts and players are him.
‘Landed on his feet’ is my point- climber.
Ambitious- selfish
Motivated and hard working- can be positive for everyone
That shit show was created because he’s absolutely clueless about forwards and then packaged up futures for a guy that told the world he wanted to be a free agent
I read young as in infant or toddler daughter and no mom in the home.
Given a ‘low’ paid player is still hundreds of thousands of US dollars a year, perhaps sympathy from coaches is low because obviously hired help is available to be had, unlike regular folks who truly can’t afford it.
It appears Chayka has landed on his feet and is according to reports going to get a senior position with the group that owns the Philadelphia 76ers and the New Jersey Devils.
After the ongoing shit show in Arizona I can’t say I blame him for abandoning ship.
Well put
If he signs a two year extension he will be exposed in the expansion draft which might be the best thing to happen to the young man.
It’s possible that Seattle will follow the Vegas model and hoover up a sparkle of defensemen since they are pretty easy to trade.
I feel vindicated in saying that I had no confidence in boy wonder GMs that had limited hockey background when the hoi polloi were touting the genius of it all.
Chaka, a climber who left a wake of conflict of interest destruction in his/ their wake.
We’ll see if the ‘Robin’ Dubas to his Batman survives.
Seems it takes more than big testes and a love of numbers to parse the human and experiential side of managing a team at the highest level of the sport.
Who would have guessed?
Surely you figured out what I’m asking for
Canucks or flames maybe?
Apparently forever
They could have handled it with inclusivity regarding the player and the person involved and made a far more important impact around this issue
When money and image come before people, bad outcomes result in the long run
The Oilers gave Alan Quine a one-way contract and gave Seth Griffith an AHL salary of $450K/$475K.
I’m highly confidant that the a 2-way deal is not part of the conversation for Lagesson.
Thanks for this – as always – but, wait, Lagesson doesn’t talk about exploring other options or staying in Sweden for the tax breaks…….
William Lagesson has taken step by step towards becoming an NHL defender. Last year, he got the chance in the Edmonton Oilers on eight occasions. With that experience behind him, he will now take the last, difficult step to become a regular in the world’s best league.
– It is important that I develop every day, says Lagesson to Hockeysverige.se.
On December 31, 2019, the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers offered a real New Year’s candy to match. The Oilers defeated the Rangers 7-5 after coming close to losing a 6-0 lead. One who made his NHL debut in that particular match was William Lagesson .
– It was damn fun to get the chance to play my first match. It felt like it was close right from the start of the season when I was with the team all the way to the season premiere. Then I was sent down and then called twice before I got the chance. So it was nice to get the first match and a win. It was cool, says Lagesson to Hockeysverige.se.
There were a total of eight NHL games last year, an important experience for the future.
– In the beginning you are expectant and do not know what is to come with level and so on. Now that you have played, you know what level it is at. Before, you were probably a little nervous that you would not keep up or that it would go too fast.
– Then you become more comfortable the more matches you play. That’s probably what I take with me. The experience is simply that you know what is to come next.
William Lagesson played eight NHL games last year.William Lagesson played eight NHL games last year.Photo: Larry MacDougal / Imago
Lagesson was also with the team during the playoff bubble in Edmonton, but was without ice time. The Oilers unexpectedly fell to the Chicago Blackhawks in the play-in series and Lagesson thinks he knows what it was due to.
– Maybe we relied a little too much on our top players. That they would make the whole team, it is after all a team sport and you need a whole team. Everyone should be up to speed. Then there are small coincidences as well.
“IT’S EXCITING TIMES NOW”
Slowly but surely, 24-year-old Lagesson has taken steps to become a regular defender in the NHL. The former JVM defender has played in college, been at home a turn with Djurgården in the SHL and then taken the step over to the Oilers’ grandfather team, Bakersfield Condors, where he developed into a key player in the 2018/19 season. Now he wants to take the next step.
– I feel ready to take that step and to be able to take a regular place. These are exciting times now and I’m on the border. It is important to be prepared, have self-confidence and have the little luck that you also need.
Do you feel stressed that there have been no more NHL games?
– I would not say stress but it was a bit frustrating when I was sent up and down all the time during the beginning of the season. When a few months had passed since the start of the season, I had barely played a game. It was tough and they were put to the test around the mental part of not giving up but continuing to rub. Believe that their chance will come too.
Lagesson has played two JVM for Sweden.Lagesson has played two JVM for Sweden.Photo: Joel Marklund / Bildbyrån
Lagesson thus got the chance in the end with a total of only 33 matches last season. That was one of the reasons why he signed for Vita Hästen just over a month ago this entire season.
– My last match was in February when I was up with Edmonton. I felt I had to play a few games given such a long break.
– I contacted the agent and he checked with some clubs in the Hockeyallsvenskan and Vita Hästen showed great interest. So it was just to grab it.
HAS STARTED THE SEASON GOOD
He has also had a great start in the club with a lot of ice time and points falling in. In eight matches, there have been three goals and three assists.
– Yes, but it is clear that it is good for self-confidence and the future. I know that many people stare blindly at points so it’s good that way.
– Then you should not put all the focus on it but you want to work on other pieces in the game as well. I have been given some powerplay time that helps and it is fun to be able to get better in that form of play as well.
Lagesson says that the goal is to be one of the top teams in the Hockeyallsvenskan and that you should be able to participate and fight for a place in the SHL if all the pieces fall into place.
The contact with the Oilers takes place a little now and then in the meantime at home in Sweden.
Since he was drafted in the fourth round in the summer of 2014, the organization has changed both general managers and coaches wildly. Since May 2019, however, Ken Holland has come in, something Lagesson sees as positive.
– I think so. Ken seems to be a good guy and it feels like he can put the team on the right track again.
Lagesson (far left) of the Oilers.Lagesson (far left) of the Oilers.Photo: Bildbyrån
“READY TO DO ANYTHING”
The team has also received a much broader set of slopes in recent years and is also sitting on several exciting slopes for the future, including Philip Broberg . However, Lagesson takes the competition calmly.
– I think it is the same in all teams, the competition is fierce. You probably have four stationary and then you have to fight for the last places. In that mix, I have been involved in miracles for at least one season. – It is important to show your front feet and show every day that you are prepared to do anything to take the last places and work your way into that bit.
You’re knocking on the NHL door. What do you think is required to take a regular place in the end?
– It is important that I develop as a player every day. Once I get the chance to take it and get a little better at everything. Then I think once you get the chance and do well it is that self-confidence and experience have a great importance. That’s probably the most important thing, I think.
What do you mean a deadline for rosters? Teams don’t need to submit their opening day/night roster until, well, that day.
That day is not known.
In cases like this I tend to believe very little of what is reported. Parents took other kids to a courtroom over this? What was the outcome? We know little. Reporters tend to report what they feel the story is, not always fairly.
I hold my opinion because I do not know.
If Arizona did thier homework and were comfortable I would rather they held thier position. Punishing a kid long after he’s already been punished can also be unfair. And folding your position not based on truth but based on perception is not a strong example. It’s rediculous to turn this into Arizona supports bullying, that’s simply not true.
As for kids young and old, we, meaning everybody on this blog have all made mistakes. Those that don’t admit it are not telling the truth. I don’t sit in judgement.
I’m even more convinced that OP and HH live together and are sitting on the same couch as we speak
The Oilers had Klefbom, Nurse and Russell on their left side depth chart for the entirety of Lagesson’s ELC. They has Sekera for parts of it as well.
“Mayhem on D” was simply not applicable to the left side and a potential lineup spot for Lagesson in his first few years of pro.
You can have your opinion on Lagesson looking for options but, of course, you were also adamant that there was zero chance Berglund would sign with the Oilers for similar reasons and, of course, your narrative is now switching, once again, to try and find something negative about the Oilers. You started off with something about staying in Sweden because of money – when that blew up in your face the narrative has changed to “exploring other options” because of opportunity. Maybe that point is valid, we don’t know and I don’t think so, but the point is your clear intent is to find something negative to about the Oilers to discuss.
His QO was league min of $700K. Technically its expired so the Oilers actually have no obligation to Lagesson even if the player was willing to sign for 1 X $700K.
I anticipate the player and management are working on a deal for a couple of years at a slightly higher rate – think just below the 2 X $850K Jones got. Pure speculation on my part.
In any even, Lagesson is playing in Europe right now but he’s not in the SHL, he’s in the AIK, the second tier league (along with Lavoie and Bouchard) because playing in the AIK allows him to come back to the NHL mid-season, whereas the SHL was not providing agreements with outs this year.
Given his pedigree, and success in the SHL in his one year in his early 20s, there is little doubt that he could have reached and agreement to play for an SHL team this year, at least in my opinion, and him played in the AIK shows a clear intent to come back to the Oilers, when the time comes.
Yes, your express attempt to call that out last night………..
My goodness.
Technically, the player has to leave the parent team promptly and travel to the AHL destination (obviously not a thing if its in the same city).
Other factors like his clear commitment to the NHL and becoming an NHL player?
He came over from Europe to North America at 18, and aside from one development season in the SHL, he has been in North America ever since.
I think he wants to be an NHL player, not an SHL player and I think he knows that coming back over, when its likely he will get material games in in the NHL, is the best path forward for his goals.
I believe he slept in one morning and missed practice – not sure if he ever got back in the good graces of the coaching staff after that.
Personally, and I’m mostly speculating here, but I had/have some questions about commitment to work ethic. I’m really just going by his social media from the off-season in Europe which is highly speculative but it jives with the fact that he returned to Edmonton for training camp like on the eve of it opening – all the other Europeans, Klef, Larsson, etc. were in Edmonton well before camp opened, taking part in the “unofficial” team skates, etc.
Harpers Hair,
The qualifying offers by Edmonton to both Bear and Lagesson were probably two way, since neither met the three criteria needed for only a one way being required in a qualifying offer. Every player should alway consider the options available to them at any point where they are required to sign a new contract. By making that minimum qualifying offer the Oilers maintain some leverage, but I agree if they insist on a two-way contract for Lagesson for this next deal, then Lagesstn’s alternatives have a better chance than if the OIlers are willing to sign him to a one way deal. If they offer him a one-way deal, I doubt he would not take it. He may still sign a deal with the OIlers that has a two way provision too, but that is less certain. I don’t know how much the key decision makers on the Oilers value Lagesson for the next year or so. We”ll see. But if they lose him, it would more likely be because they don’t have long term plans for him not because Lagesson wanted out.
I think you answered your own question. It is fully buryable so it doesn’t really matter to them. If they go to Maroon and give him the choice of a trade or a demotion do they really care which he chooses because I think Maroon would rather be in the NHL than on a bus.
Per CapFriendly:
Pat Maroon’s 2 year contract with Tampa Bay #Lightning includes a full No Trade Clause in 2020-21, and a Limited No Trade Clause (16 team trade list) in 2021-22.
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Now, I know it can be fully buried in the minors so there is no cap risk but, still, why? Trade protection on so much of their roster is killing them right now – would think they wouldn’t give it to a regressing player on a multi year deal on principle.
OriginalPouzar,
I liked him on the Oilers as well!
After a really good showing last season, I’m surprised he didn’t play a single game with this year’s Oilers. One of the few players who really seemed to have chemistry with Lucic.
Can’t see it for a second (and i would worry about such a poor defensive player even though he can score goals – the coaches quote I pasted sum up my thoughts):
Note: This is from LeBrun at The Athletic. Can’t post the link as it puts it in moderation due to a word in the URL
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And I think the reason to be patient has to do with some contending teams perhaps finding cap room for Hoffman later in the offseason depending on LTIR situations. Think of Boston with its injuries to David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, St. Louis with Vladimir Tarasenko and Edmonton with Oscar Klefbom. I think those teams have all been viewed by the Hoffman camp as potential landing spots depending on where those teams are roster-wise and LTIR-wise closer to puck drop.
“He’s one-dimensional, he’s a great scorer, he’s got a heck of a one-timer, but he’s really bad defensively,’’ offered another coach. “To me, he’s a specialist.’’
test.
Can’t see it for a second (and i would worry about such a poor defensive player even though he can score goals – the coaches quote I pasted sum up my thoughts):
https://theathletic.com/2168842/2020/10/29/lebrun-mike-hoffman-gamble-price/
And I think the reason to be patient has to do with some contending teams perhaps finding cap room for Hoffman later in the offseason depending on LTIR situations. Think of Boston with its injuries to David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, St. Louis with Vladimir Tarasenko and Edmonton with Oscar Klefbom. I think those teams have all been viewed by the Hoffman camp as potential landing spots depending on where those teams are roster-wise and LTIR-wise closer to puck drop.
“He’s one-dimensional, he’s a great scorer, he’s got a heck of a one-timer, but he’s really bad defensively,’’ offered another coach. “To me, he’s a specialist.’’
Currie is going to be a big loss for the Condors – from accounts, he was a fan favourite. He was an on-ice leader for that team that played with heart and energy and was a plus AHL goal scorer.
Yeah, it sounds like he apologized to everyone but the victim. Trash.
Good on the kid’s parents for getting the word out on this story.
Broberg over 20 minutes today in a 3-1 loss. He had a couple of shots and did take a minus (although that may have been on the EN goal, I’ll have to dig more). His TOI was second on the team.
I believe Sammy was plus 1 with 19 minutes in the 3-2 OTL but need to dig more again.
Well said, especially your last sentence.
It seems he (well, someone) managed to send a detailed letter to all 31 teams telling them how terrible he feels about bullying that poor kid. And that he’s grown up now, he’s learnt his lesson and they should still consider picking him.
If it’s true that he has never properly apologised to the other kid then not only is he a real piece of crap, but he’s also an idiot as well.
I believe Swedish Poster has provided some fairly detailed information regarding the compensation in Sweden and, no, even if he’s re-signed to an NHL minimum deal, even with 30% off the top and taxes, it will be more than he’d earn in Sweden.
Not to mention, he’s in AIK, not the SHL, 100% because it allows him to come back to North American (he played in the SHL for a year in his early 20s, I’m sure Djurgårdens would welcome him back).
Thanks for that. It was always the most likely scenario. I’ll wait for the weekend. Google translate is hard on the eyes.
I can’t imagine Bouchard will stay in Sweden.
Samorukov is committed to the KHL for the season.
We know Berglund is staying for the year and coming over next season, always the plan. I guess Lennstrom and Neimelainan could stay but both were excited to start their North American careers and I fully expect the two players, contracted to the Oilers and loaned to European teams to come back – even if they don’t, they aren’t anticipated to effect the NHL lineup this year.
The stated plan for Broberg is to spend the entire season in Skelefteea. Now, given how well he’s playing and that he’ll be in Edmonton for the World Juniors, there may be a chance they want him to stay at that point but, at this point, he’s not anticipated to be effecting Oilers depth.
I guess the only one is Lagesson as he doesn’t currently have a contract.
Fairly clear that to read this article and post about effecting the Oilers’ depth due to players loaned to Europe is just more of the same – trying to find an Oilers negative in anything and everything.
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In any event, the European seasons end in March (give or take) – the NHL season will be have plenty of road left – guys like Berglund and Broberg, scheduled for the year in Sweden will have a chance to get acclimated to North American hockey – likely with the Condors.
I’ll try to find the time to do a proper translation some time during the weekend but here’s a link to an interview with Lagesson from the other day if anyone feel like letting Google translate do its thing. Certainly seems like his focus is to play for the Oilers once the NHL kicks off.
https://hockeysverige.se/2020/10/28/william-lagesson-edmonton-oilers-nhl