Brick House

by Lowetide

When it comes to finding linemates for Connor McDavid, I expect we’re in the “Mats Sundin lines up with Mikael Renberg and Jonas Hoglund” territory. It’s cool, and it’ll work to an extent, but you know Gary Roberts and Alex Mogilny are on the next line and there’s something tragic about the whole enterprise.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

MCDAVID’S LINE

Connor McDavid

Tyler Ennis

Zack Kassian

There’s a “one and done” aspect to a McDavid sortie, and that’s reflected in his possession numbers via Puck IQ. That isn’t fatal, but the Oilers need his line to dominate five on five (all of these numbers are five on five) and during 365 minutes against ‘middle’ competition the team was flailing. Part of that might have been his health, and I do think the line shuffling later in the year had a negative impact. A healthy McDavid will improve on these numbers no matter the linemates but if you see the Nuge on his line, the Puck IQ numbers will be the reason Tippett is doing a shuffle.

The Ennis numbers are from Ottawa, there wasn’t enough from the Edmonton games to post. It looks like he has pretty good possession numbers, and he can roar against middle and gritensity. That may mean he lands on the Turris line. He’s the winger not named Nuge or Yamamoto who can score 20 goals next season, so one imagines Ennis gets a long look in a skill position.

Zack Kassian had such a fine season going until he lost the plot, and I do think he’ll play a lot with McDavid when the season gets underway. There is competition, but one suspects that Yamamoto stays put and that Puljujarvi is brought along at a pace that sees plenty of time with Kyle Turris.

ILYA KONOVALOV

After a long layoff (26 days) Ilya Konovalov is back in net for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv. It’s in the first period at this moment, he has stopped all 10 shots faced.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us at 10:20 and we’ll talk Joey Moss, the World Series and a full moon Halloween night. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic pops by at 10:40 to discuss his latest look at Evan Bouchard and what he has improved upon in recent months. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will be on the radio at 11 to talk NFL week 7, college football’s unpredictability this fall and the World Series. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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813.52Ran

White serif font on black background is much too hard to read.

jp

OriginalPouzar: That is correct – a million dollar player can be signed and Nygard or Haas, for example, send to the AHL for a nominal difference in the cap.

I don’t imagine Kahun coming in under $2M – its a cap increase.

But as you agreed (I think) the other day, the Oilers could sign a $2M player.

If Kahun were willing to do that the Oilers could sign him today.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: I’m
OP for an optimist you are very defeatist

You post that signing bottom othe roster players does not inhibit signing other. better players. Then you post that better players cannot he signed as there is no room or money.

That is correct – a million dollar player can be signed and Nygard or Haas, for example, send to the AHL for a nominal difference in the cap.

I don’t imagine Kahun coming in under $2M – its a cap increase.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Not only is there pent up demand for hockey on TV but there is also pent up demand from advertisers who want to get their message out.

If a broadcaster has “the only game in town” and can deliver viewers, the cost of buying advertising will rise.

I would imagine companies like Tim Horton’s and Canadian Tire would be all over this.

I don’t believe the demand is what you do. That’s fine. Don’t have to agree.

I don’t see many in Bramptom tuning in to watch the Heat and Condors play on a Monday afternoon.

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss:
I don’t have a dog in this fight but if my current sports cable package can offer Cornhole and Korean baseball and find an audience, I would think AHL hockey in winter might have some value to a cable provider starved for content in the middle of a global pandemic

I’m out of market so I have to subscribe every year ($200 for an 82 game schedule) for Oilers games

We’ll see what they have to offer this winter with a abbreviated schedule but if they offered a $10 add on for whatever AHL product they could scrape together I might pay for that

Your cable provider is just picking up the signal though (paying for it) – not producing the game.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: So you are saying that the logical way to proceed is to break up a line that really worked well and create a new line of Nuge, McDavid and Kassian. What you have done is effectively destroyed a line that does work well and will now attempt to find a left wing for the Draisaitl line. How did this work for the play in. Bottom line is regardless of where you play Nuge the team still needs a top six left wing. Please explain how moving Nuge makes the team better?

I imagine that a combo of Drai/Yama and a decently skilled LW (Ennis, Benson, etc.) will continue to be dynamic and outscore the opposition at a 55%-60% goal share rates.

I imagine that a trio of Nuge/McDavid/Kassian (JP) will outscore opposition at material rates in the 55%-60% range.

Nope, don’t want to take Nuge off the Drai line as first option, and I’ve stated as such.

At the same time, if the McDavid line, without Nuge, continues to simply saw off the opposition or nominally outscore them, something has to give as that’s not sustainable for this team being a contender.

OriginalPouzar

Per McKenzie:

. @HockeyCanada is expected to today announce dates and players invited to what will essentially be a month-long national junior team selection camp in Red Deer, Alta. Forty-plus players will attend the camp that starts in mid-November in preparation for 2021 @IIHF_wjc in EDM.

I wonder if Holloway will be released by Wisconsin to attend? Quarantine issues as well but the pilot project will be on at the Calgary airport which may make it feasible (can shorten quarantine to 2-3 days).

jp

Bling: Great post.

I can’t argue with those WOWYs, other than to say 97 is 97. Is 53 or 55 GF% a good enough mark for the best player in the world? 97 was able to carry Lucic until it became impossible.

How do we know he isn’t carrying Kassian?

Kassian’s three year record defensively, prior to last year, was abysmal. This was predominantly playing against 3rd and 4th line comp. He was basically performing at the level of Drake Caggiula over that time period.

I don’t see a reason for that player to be on the first line, unless there has been some kind of metamorphosis. I didn’t see that last season, but I may be wrong.

Let’s put this another way. Would you make Caggiula McDavid’s RW in the 2021 season?

Caggiula has almost the same three year defensive record as Kassian (2016-2017 to 2018-2019) and he is currently unsigned.

I think McDavid is almost certainly carrying Kassian, to an extent. That’s the way things go when you’re the best player in the world (and FWIW McDavid actually did have quality results with Lucic, compared to other players he’s played with).

On Kassian, I’m really just trying to say that he hasn’t pulled McDavid down, in response to many who think Kassian as McDavid’s winger is a problem that needs solving.

Kassian’s defensive record (GA/60) wasn’t good those years but as you noted earlier, the Oilers better players gave up more goals. I went and checked, Kassian’s most common centers those 3 years were Letestu (717min), McDavid (513), Nuge (462), Draisaitl (448), Brodziak (404).

If you drop the minutes (to >600) to let Brodziak in, the GA/60 for the above players goes (worst to best):
Draisaitl (3.03)
McDavid
Brodziak
Kassian
Nuge
Letestu (2.50)

I’m not at all arguing Kassian is a plus defensive player, but he sure doesn’t stand out as a negative influence on the players he’s played with. He’s also meshed quite well offensively with McDavid and put up significant 5v5 points.

If we step back, by any objective measure Kassian has performed like a first line forward at 5v5 in the 1.5 years he’s been playing with McDavid. He’s above average in GF% (and better than most of this teammates, McDavid included) and has scored in the top 75 players in the NHL.

If he was a 28 year-old KHL free agent (Dadanov or Gusev) or a 2017 first rounder and performed like Kassian has. Well everyone would be happy with that player, no?

digger50

OriginalPouzar: Can’t “swipe from LTIR” until Klef is placed on LTIR on day 1 of the season – there will be PTO players that can be signed at that time but I don’t imagine Kahun will be one

Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season but, as we’ve discussed, there is no chance that Holland does it – it would be a nightmare scenario for the regular season day to day management of the team (or any intent on improving externally during the season)..

I’m
OP for an optimist you are very defeatist

You post that signing bottom othe roster players does not inhibit signing other. better players. Then you post that better players cannot he signed as there is no room or money.

Georgexs

John Chambers,

“In summary, Quality of Competition or Woodmomey stats are useful indicators…”

Why do you say useful indicator? From my closer look at the 16-17 numbers, either Woodmoney doesn’t do a good job of measuring QOC or it does and it turns out QOC isn’t correlated to winning or losing.

“… but in my amateur estimation it’s all part of a more complicated overall evaluation of the ever-changing game state (not to mention zonestart, shift length, and which team had the flu).”

Adding QOC definitely makes things more complicated. I’m not sure how the extra complexity is helping overall evaluation. QOC should matter. So why doesn’t it matter?

If you disagree, go over to PuckIQ and pay attention to the scatter plots. (Their site is quite well done btw, a pleasure to use, kudos to the development team.) Play around with the x-axis dropdown and the team and player filters. Tell me what you see.

digger50

Harpers Hair: True.

But just off the top of my head….

Operating the lighting, sound system operators.

Referees and linesmen.

Public address announcers.

Zamboni drivers.

Ice scrapers

Time keepers

Penalty box attendants

Stats keepers

Goal judges

Dressing room and washroom cleaners

DAILY COVID TESTING FOR EVERYONE INVOLVED.

Doesn’t seem like much until you extrapolate it over scores of games when it becomes a massive expense when no revenue is being produced.

Most people ple that are able to get back to work are back to work. We are not undergoing daily Covid testing.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: The production cost for a nationally televised game vs. the one in-house camera following the puck around for AHL TV are not in the same ball-park I don’t believe.

———————–

This is from a Globe & Mail article from 2012 – I’m going to guess costs are higher now.

To understand the inverse logic of the lockout and its victims, you need to consider that an average regular season broadcast in Canada can have production costs of about $60,000; typical advertising revenue for that game comes in anywhere from $15,000 to $20,000 short of production costs.

I dont think it costs much to have one regular definition camera following the puck around as per AHL TV – some of them with a single announcer (Ryan Holt for the Condors) and some with none.

In the “commercial breaks”, you can hear Ryan Holt talking and essentially producing his own broadcast.

Not only is there pent up demand for hockey on TV but there is also pent up demand from advertisers who want to get their message out.

If a broadcaster has “the only game in town” and can deliver viewers, the cost of buying advertising will rise.

I would imagine companies like Tim Horton’s and Canadian Tire would be all over this.

Gerta Rauss

I don’t have a dog in this fight but if my current sports cable package can offer Cornhole and Korean baseball and find an audience, I would think AHL hockey in winter might have some value to a cable provider starved for content in the middle of a global pandemic

I’m out of market so I have to subscribe every year ($200 for an 82 game schedule) for Oilers games

We’ll see what they have to offer this winter with a abbreviated schedule but if they offered a $10 add on for whatever AHL product they could scrape together I might pay for that

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: 57%
63%
53%
65%

Those are the GF% of that Bruins top line over the last 4 years – absolutely killing it – no doubt.The best line in hockey over the course of time.

Nothing even close to 77% goal share though. It goes to show exactly how unsustainable the production was from the Nuge/Drai/Yama line.

Do you honestly think those 3 players will continue to score at the rates they did in 2020 – all of a sudden Nuge is a 100 point player and Yama a PPG solely at evens?

I don’t see any way that line doesn’t regress.Don’t get me wrong, they should still be dynamic but not near the level they were for 2 months.

Even if the PP doesn’t come back down from historic levels (which it likely will), the regression of the Drai line would need to be made up.The 3rd line should be less of a black hole but, ultimately, McDavid and his linemates need to be well over 50%.

I would LOVE nothing more than to keep that Drai line together and find another LW that helps McDavid.I would like to see Benson and Nygard get real chances but, at the end of the day, so far, coach T. hasn’t been able to find a LW that allows McDavid to materially outscore opponents.

This is a primary need going forward.

So you are saying that the logical way to proceed is to break up a line that really worked well and create a new line of Nuge, McDavid and Kassian. What you have done is effectively destroyed a line that does work well and will now attempt to find a left wing for the Draisaitl line. How did this work for the play in. Bottom line is regardless of where you play Nuge the team still needs a top six left wing. Please explain how moving Nuge makes the team better?

jp

OriginalPouzar: The production cost for a nationally televised game vs. the one in-house camera following the puck around for AHL TV are not in the same ball-park I don’t believe.

———————–

This is from a Globe & Mail article from 2012 – I’m going to guess costs are higher now.

To understand the inverse logic of the lockout and its victims, you need to consider that an average regular season broadcast in Canada can have production costs of about $60,000; typical advertising revenue for that game comes in anywhere from $15,000 to $20,000 short of production costs.

I dont think it costs much to have one regular definition camera following the puck around as per AHL TV – some of them with a single announcer (Ryan Holt for the Condors) and some with none.

In the “commercial breaks”, you can hear Ryan Holt talking and essentially producing his own broadcast.

Interesting. Though that quote makes it sound like broadcasting an average NHL game is a losing proposition so part of the equation must be missing.

Anyway, with the suggestion earlier that NHL and AHL teams could travel together I wondered whether NHL/AHL double headers could become a thing. Would reduce basically all costs related to hosting a game (arena, staffing, broadcasts).

I have zero clue the actual costs or feasibility of any of the above, but there could well be a middle ground between theahl.com and a typical NHL broadcast that makes sense (or not).

OriginalPouzar

jp: What significant additional production costs would there be to broadcast it on TV, above what the AHL.com does already?

The production cost for a nationally televised game vs. the one in-house camera following the puck around for AHL TV are not in the same ball-park I don’t believe.

———————–

This is from a Globe & Mail article from 2012 – I’m going to guess costs are higher now.

To understand the inverse logic of the lockout and its victims, you need to consider that an average regular season broadcast in Canada can have production costs of about $60,000; typical advertising revenue for that game comes in anywhere from $15,000 to $20,000 short of production costs.

I dont think it costs much to have one regular definition camera following the puck around as per AHL TV – some of them with a single announcer (Ryan Holt for the Condors) and some with none.

In the “commercial breaks”, you can hear Ryan Holt talking and essentially producing his own broadcast.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine a seasons worth of Condors/Comets/Heat games being broadcast nationally.

There is no way there would be a market for that that would generate enough revenue.

What significant additional production costs would there be to broadcast it on TV, above what the AHL.com does already?

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Exactly why are you fully confident Katz will fund this?

Do you have inside information or are you just #toobin?

Well, yes, I do have inside information on some of his business ventures but that opinion has nothing to do with that information and is based on the fact that Daryl Katz continues to spend considerable funds on all things that could help the Oilers – the close to 20 players playing in Europe is at a material cost to Katz, the signing of players like Alan Quine to one-way contracts even though he’s almost assuredly to spend most (if not all) of the year in the AHL, even the two-way contracts he’s signed have guaranteed money close to $400K in some cases, etc.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: There is a huge difference between a national broadcast on television and a sketchy feed from amateurs in the AHL.

Advertising would easily cover the production costs.

I can’t imagine a seasons worth of Condors/Comets/Heat games being broadcast nationally.

There is no way there would be a market for that that would generate enough revenue.

unca miltie

defmn:
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/sam-gagner-joey-moss-edmonton-oilers-hockey

Thank you for sharing the link. Powerful story. We all saw the guy singing the anthem but only the players got to see what Sam shared. Joey was an incredible human being.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Who has been better in the past or present is meaningless.

I was basically saying that the idea won’t work because the Oilers organization would require that and the flames organization probably wouldn’t go for it.

Then again, I’m fully confidant that Daryl Katz will have no issue funding excess costs related to the Condors in full and have much less confidence in Murray Edwards and Co’s willingness to do the same and they very well could allow for such a deal if Katz is funding the costs.

Exactly why are you fully confident Katz will fund this?

Do you have inside information or are you just #toobin?

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: You can consider it worthless – I will consider it something worth exploring.

You knock yourself out
Go play with your small sample sizes

SVR

OriginalPouzar: Who has been better in the past or present is meaningless.

I was basically saying that the idea won’t work because the Oilers organization would require that and the flames organization probably wouldn’t go for it.

Then again, I’m fully confidant that Daryl Katz will have no issue funding excess costs related to the Condors in full and have much less confidence in Murray Edwards and Co’s willingness to do the same and they very well could allow for such a deal if Katz is funding the costs.

Squirrel

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Why would Calgary agree to that when the Heat have historically been better than the Condors?

Who has been better in the past or present is meaningless.

I was basically saying that the idea won’t work because the Oilers organization would require that and the flames organization probably wouldn’t go for it.

Then again, I’m fully confidant that Daryl Katz will have no issue funding excess costs related to the Condors in full and have much less confidence in Murray Edwards and Co’s willingness to do the same and they very well could allow for such a deal if Katz is funding the costs.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Given all the AHL games are available on AHL TV and the price being so nominal, I don’t think the demand will be nearly as high as you think and the profit vs. the cost of production would make that a non-starter.

Can’t see a TV contract for AHL games.

There is a huge difference between a national broadcast on television and a sketchy feed from amateurs in the AHL.

Advertising would easily cover the production costs.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Anything under 200 minutes should be considered small sample size
Anything under 100 minutes is almost worthless

You can consider it worthless – I will consider it something worth exploring.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Almost all the Canadian teams control their arenas in Canada.They would be paying rent to themselves.They can have a shadow schedule to the NHL teams in Canada, and share the charters.

Sportsnet and TSN will still likely be starved for content.A Canadian AHL division would probably attract a TV contract and an audience.

Given all the AHL games are available on AHL TV and the price being so nominal, I don’t think the demand will be nearly as high as you think and the profit vs. the cost of production would make that a non-starter.

Can’t see a TV contract for AHL games.

godot10

leadfarmer:
This is all so very tedious
There’s a decent chance that a vaccine will be available by February
And I’m sure professional athletes will be one of the first who find a way to get it

I doubt that there will be vaccines available for hockey players** in February.

**except for the Calgary Flames who will break into the front of the line again.

SVR

Harpers Hair: Why would Calgary agree to that when the Heat have historically been better than the Condors?

And here’s that comment right on cue. Lol

SVR

OriginalPouzar: 1) I’m not sure why you aren’t able to acknowledge that the rates those three were producing at is simply not sustainable – this will not create a trio of 100 point player I don’t imagine.I’m not posting my opinion as fact but you ignore posts talking about the assured drop in production and goal share (except for one reference to the Bergeron line which also went to prove how unsustainable this lines’ scoring rates are).

2) I thought playing with McDavid was most forward’s dream – now “covering on McDavid’s line” is Nuge being hard-done by?

3) Related to point 1, your suggestion is about maximizing points for a few players and not about winning. Winning on this team requires two material outscoring lines and, recently, in 2020, McDavid hasn’t been able to do that.I really hope that another LW can help McDavid get there but I do think that Yama/Drai with a 3rd skilled player can be a material outscoring line and Nuge/McDavid can as well if there – until another option is there for McDavid – it might just be Benson or Puljujarvi getting more NHL reps and “being ready”.

Something about a pot and a black kettle…

JP clearly showed that McDavid’s results have been good without Leon and should be expected to stay that way. You choose to blow that off and continue repeating that McDavid needs help on his line. Cause if you keep saying it, it has to be true.

You then finally acknowledge the numbers but counter that recent results havent been good. You use the same sample size as the “unsustainable” 93-29-56 line has playing together to “prove” your point. I’m sure if you repeat all this 5 or 10 more times, it will be cemented as gospel

Unless HH comments in the next little bit to squirrel you in a new direction…

leadfarmer

This is all so very tedious
There’s a decent chance that a vaccine will be available by February
And I’m sure professional athletes will be one of the first who find a way to get it

Harpers Hair

defmn: I doubt they would. Anymore than Edmonton would. Hard to make that work imo.

There must be a Sutter available 🙂

Harpers Hair

John Chambers: They’re hosting hockey games anyway. NHL games.

True.

But just off the top of my head….

Operating the lighting, sound system operators.

Referees and linesmen.

Public address announcers.

Zamboni drivers.

Ice scrapers

Time keepers

Penalty box attendants

Stats keepers

Goal judges

Dressing room and washroom cleaners

DAILY COVID TESTING FOR EVERYONE INVOLVED.

Doesn’t seem like much until you extrapolate it over scores of games when it becomes a massive expense when no revenue is being produced.

defmn

Harpers Hair: Why would Calgary agree to that when the Heat have historically been better than the Condors?

I doubt they would. Anymore than Edmonton would. Hard to make that work imo.

John Chambers

Harpers Hair: Perhaps…but I’m dubious.

Gearing up an arena to host a hockey game is far more expensive than having it sit idle.

While I’m sure they could work out a deal to cover their costs, it most certainly be free as some have suggested.

They’re hosting hockey games anyway. NHL games.

John Chambers

Georgexs,

We had a discussion a couple weeks back about QualComp and QualTeam. You had posted some interesting stats about various players GF%, DFF%, etc vs different caliber opposition (elites to 4th line), showing little variance in the player results when analyzing the “WoodMoney” measure of QualComp.

Based on the data you posed the question: Does QualComp matter, (or maybe does the WoodMoney stat matter), given the inconclusive results.

I suggested that Yes, it still did, maintaining that there’s a high correlation between QComp and QTeam, meaning that if “Darnell Nurse” was facing the other team’s top line then he was likely doing so with other of the Oilers top players on the ice with him. When Nurse plays against Pettersson or Mark Stone, he usually does so with McDavid or Draisaitl as his centre.

I like to think of the five skaters on the ice as an equation, multiplying the relative strengths of each player against a perfect 1.000, to arrive at an aggregate number. Kind of like NHL video games’ player rankings, then nerdified.

Observe:

The Oilers ice a fivesome of McDavid (0.97), Neal (0.72), Kassian (0.77), Nurse (0.82) and Bear (0.74). Collectively they have a team score of .97 x .72 x .77 x .82 x .74 = .326

They face off against Monahan .85 x Gaudreau .91 x Lindholm .84 x Kylington .69 x Stone .64 = .287

My back-of-the-napkin approach had the Oilers outshooting the Flames 32.6 – 28.7 over a period (say 60 mins). Makes sense – the Flames have a better overall forward group and would count in Nurse’s QComp or Woodmoney as facing “top opposition”, but those forwards are skating with the 3rd pair limiting their overall effectiveness.

In summary, Quality of Competition or Woodmomey stats are useful indicators but in my amateur estimation it’s all part of a more complicated overall evaluation of the ever-changing game state (not to mention zonestart, shift length, and which team had the flu).

Discuss …

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Not unless its run by, and coached by, the Oilers (Woody and company).

The no-AHL affiliate decision (and shared team with WB-Scranton) set the organization back big time, in my opinion.

Why would Calgary agree to that when the Heat have historically been better than the Condors?

Harpers Hair

John Chambers: Those venues planning to be hosting concerts or trade shows anytime this spring?

Nope.

The arena operators would be delighted to host an AHL schedule for cents on the dollar vs what they would charge promoters in normal times. They have to cover utility costs anyway, so any additional revenue to offset their large fixed costs would be welcome.

Perhaps…but I’m dubious.

Gearing up an arena to host a hockey game is far more expensive than having it sit idle.

While I’m sure they could work out a deal to cover their costs, it most certainly be free as some have suggested.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Nugent-Hopkins has been asked to cover for other players for most of his career.It is time to stop asking him to do that, especially since it is not in the interest of winning anymore.Maximizing Nugent-Hopkins full potential and creating a trinity of 100 point players will maximize winning.

Draisaitl has demonstrating that he is far better at maximizing Nugent-Hopkins than McDavid.

Crosby has realized this for years in Pittsburgh and deferred to Malkin getting the most talented wingers.

The Oilers are better if Nugent-Hopkins gets the easier road, and McDavid gets the harder one.

1) I’m not sure why you aren’t able to acknowledge that the rates those three were producing at is simply not sustainable – this will not create a trio of 100 point player I don’t imagine. I’m not posting my opinion as fact but you ignore posts talking about the assured drop in production and goal share (except for one reference to the Bergeron line which also went to prove how unsustainable this lines’ scoring rates are).

2) I thought playing with McDavid was most forward’s dream – now “covering on McDavid’s line” is Nuge being hard-done by?

3) Related to point 1, your suggestion is about maximizing points for a few players and not about winning. Winning on this team requires two material outscoring lines and, recently, in 2020, McDavid hasn’t been able to do that. I really hope that another LW can help McDavid get there but I do think that Yama/Drai with a 3rd skilled player can be a material outscoring line and Nuge/McDavid can as well if there – until another option is there for McDavid – it might just be Benson or Puljujarvi getting more NHL reps and “being ready”.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: The charters used by NHL teams do not have the capacity to handle two complete rosters, coaching, equipment managers and medical staffs.

Only the Canucks and Jets own their own arenas, while Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa do not so, while they may have some control over the arenas, those teams who do not would have to come to some agreement to use the arenas for AHL games.

In any event, staging AHL games in NHL arenas is not free as the other costs I mentioned above still have to be covered.

Does ownership matter or revenue dispersal?

John Chambers

Harpers Hair: The charters used by NHL teams do not have the capacity to handle two complete rosters, coaching, equipment managers and medical staffs.

Only the Canucks and Jets own their own arenas, while Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa do not so, while they may have some control over the arenas, those teams who do not would have to come to some agreement to use the arenas for AHL games.

In any event, staging AHL games in NHL arenas is not free as the other costs I mentioned above still have to be covered.

Those venues planning to be hosting concerts or trade shows anytime this spring?

Nope.

The arena operators would be delighted to host an AHL schedule for cents on the dollar vs what they would charge promoters in normal times. They have to cover utility costs anyway, so any additional revenue to offset their large fixed costs would be welcome.

OriginalPouzar

John Chambers:
Edmonton and Calgary should share a minor league club … in Red Deer.

Not unless its run by, and coached by, the Oilers (Woody and company).

The no-AHL affiliate decision (and shared team with WB-Scranton) set the organization back big time, in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

John Chambers:
I wonder if Holland has a deal cooked up for a UFA (Kahun, Duclair?) who will come to camp on a PTO but is in all likelihood going to receive a contract once Klef goes on LTIR.

There may be a few of those playing out when (if) camps start.

I do think there are likely to be many more players signing off PTOs than in most years but I don’t think the scenario listed above applies to those two guys. I’m sure both guys have legit offers right now from various teams and are weighing options or waiting for a more significant deal or fit. I don’t see either of them taking on that type of risk so that they can sign in Edmonton and do the team a solid timing wise.

oilsnc79

defmn,

Sam’s words, beautiful tribute to a fine man.

Georgexs

That’s six PuckIQ player cards in the past two days.

For these six, does player GF-GA vary in an understandable way with QOC as measured by PuckIQ?

I ran through the overall numbers with the 16-17 data. WG’s site has a link to a Google sheet with the players listings for each tier in that season.

The TL;DR is that I found the GF-GA results have no relation to PuckIQ QOC.

It was easier to make a case that the GF-GA results track the player tiers, i.e., it matters who PuckIQ thought you were, not who PuckIQ thought you played against.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: McDavid and Nygard certainly rhymed – 51 minutes but 6:1 goals is ridiculous (especially in 51 minutes).

Anything under 200 minutes should be considered small sample size
Anything under 100 minutes is almost worthless

Georgexs

KY was called up on 2019-12-31, I believe. And I think Drai-RNH-KY were put together the game after that.

Over the next 26 games, they went:

28-8 (GF-GA)
77.8 (GF%)
53.3 (SF%)
14.9 (SH%)
95.2 (SV%)
110.0 (PDO)

The Oilers went 16-8-5 for a P% of .638, outscoring their opponents 100-82.

Pointing out that this is unsustainable is one way of looking at it. That emphasizes the luck part, look at that super high PDO.

Another way of looking at it is that it is very, very hard for a combination of players to get those kind of results over 26 games in the NHL. Results like that are a good sign that the combination is probably pretty good, in the same way that very high individual offensive totals are a good sign that you’re probably dealing with a pretty good offensive player.

Here’s an example from another team.

From Dec. 23, 2019 to Feb. 17, 2020, TBL went 23-2-1 (.904), outscoring their opponents 96-49.

Totally unsustainable, but also a sign that the team was probably pretty good.

Here are the numbers for Kucherov-Point over that 25 game stretch

29-10 (GF-GA)
74.4 (GF%)
52.4 (SF%)
16.5 (SH%)
93.8 (SV%)
110.2 (PDO)

Again, completely unsustainable, and, again, also a sign that Kucherov-Point are pretty good and should continue to play together. Because they’ll continue to create success. (Their PDO settled down in the playoffs (102.4) but they cranked up their possession game and won 24-11 on goals.)

In TBL’s case, the team was loaded with talent and Kucherov-Point’s +19 on goals at 5v5 was less than half of the +47 on goals the team managed overall during their winning streak.

With EDM, Drai-RNH-KY’s +20 was all of EDM’s +18 overall during that time and then some.

I know people have offered their thoughts on what Tippett was thinking, but, really, what was Tippett thinking? You do things like break up a line that’s playing as well as the strongest combinations in the league in their best stretches and, well, you beat yourself. Then you let CHI finish you off.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: Exactly

Team is considered okay right now. Sign that one more player who can make a difference and suddenly it’s watch out for those Oilers.

Minus one roster player is 1m, swipe 1.5 from LTR and yes we can fit him under cap.

Can’t “swipe from LTIR” until Klef is placed on LTIR on day 1 of the season – there will be PTO players that can be signed at that time but I don’t imagine Kahun will be one

Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season but, as we’ve discussed, there is no chance that Holland does it – it would be a nightmare scenario for the regular season day to day management of the team (or any intent on improving externally during the season)..