Ken Holland’s offseason thrifting reached new heights on the weekend, as news arrived that Dominik Kahun had agreed to a one-year, $975,000 deal (source: Elliotte Friedman). There’s no downside to this contract for the Oilers, and there’s big potential for Kahun.
There are some fantastic story lines here, including this one: Wouldn’t it be insane if, after spending five years in search of McDavid’s winger, we find Leon’s six months after Dave Tippett successfully moves the big man to center?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers pick up an intriguing addition in free agent Dominik Kahun
- New Lowetide: Will massive free-agent pool give Oilers a late offseason lift?
- Lowetide: How close is Ryan McLeod to an Oilers roster spot?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft oversees a spike in Oilers prospect development
- Lowetide: The 2020-21 Oilers and value contracts: Career opportunities
- Eric Duhatschek: For one season only, bring on the NHL’s Canada Division
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ organizational depth chart: Where does Edmonton stand today?
- Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov’s KHL impact and what it means to the Oilers
- Lowetide: How many goals will Tyler Ennis score in 2020-21?
- Lowetide: Oilers extend Kris Russell, solve expansion issue
- Lowetide: Can Kyle Turris centre an outscoring No. 3 line in Edmonton?
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s skills and how Oilers coach Dave Tippett will deploy him
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers unlock James Neal’s scoring potential at five on five?
- Lowetide: Why is Ilya Konovalov no longer starting in the KHL?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
- Lowetide: Finding Connor McDavid’s optimal linemates among 2020-21 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: A cautious free agent period boosts an Oilers team still on the upswing
- Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
PROJECTED ROSTER 2020-21
There’s $2.47 million in cap room here, and only Joakim Nygard had to be waived. Man this was a good signing. I imagine we’ll see a veteran forward moved out, the beauty of this situation is the cap is so small there’s no need to trade a $2 million player. It gives Holland all kinds of options. I chose Nygard but he’ll get a full shot at winning a job on the roster and we could see a preseason deal involving a winger.
The word “balance” arrives at our doorstep this morning, friends. It’s been a long, long time. May I show you balance? Some of these names may not be familiar to the youngers, if that is the case we’ll need the elders to fill them in. Oh people, walking in darkness, a light shall shine upon you. Here’s the 2005-06 postseason lines and pairings:
L1: Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
L2: Torres-Peca-Pisani
L3: Samsonov-Stoll-Dvorak
L4: Moreau-Rem Murray-Laraque
D1: Pronger-Jason Smith
D2: Jaroslav Spacek-Steve Staios
D3: Dick Tarnstrom-Matt Greene
G1: Dwayne Roloson (Jussi Markkanen)
Extra players were Ty Conklin, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Igor Ulanov, Brad Winchester, Toby Petersen, Jean-Francois Jacques, Todd Harvey. Marc Pouliot was unable to play.
I loved that team, still do. Up the middle they were golden, the giant Paul Bunyan with his earthly name (Chris Pronger) and Dwayne Roloson to thwart all comers. I can’t tell you how good Pisani and Peca and Hemsky and Horcoff and Dvorak were, you had to be there. Part of my heart remains in Game 7 postgame, suspect it always will.
Balance. It’s a thing.
Tyler Benson
If you’re Benson this morning, there’s no way to make the Oilers opening night failing injury. I’m not going to suggest the organization has soured on him, but the management team who drafted him no longer owns the keys to the executive washroom. He’s going to be on the outside, at least for a time, this coming season.
Is Holland done?
Balance eludes the current roster, partly because Oscar Klefbom is injured and partly because the goaltending did not improve. There’s work to be done, but one suspects adding Mike Hoffman is unlikely. Maybe Madison Bowey or other, and then I’d look for an Adin Hill waiver pickup in preseason.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun and very busy show thing morning, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will join us at 10:20 to talk NFL football and another fun weekend of games, plus the Monday Nighter. Bill Hoppe, who covers the Buffalo Sabres for the Times Herald, will drop by to give us a scouting report on Dominik Kahun. Jason Gregor pops in at 11 and we’ll chat Oilers and Ken Holland’s offseason. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s going to be a great day!
An astute signing by Mr. Holland. I’ve heard that because Buffalo didn’t qualify him then at the end of his contract with Edmonton he becomes an RFA, not a full FA. Which is a huuuge plus to this organization and it’s balancing act come expansion time.
Through all of this hooopla about Kahun, I’m sort of curious to know why Buffalo stiffed him. He’s bounced between a few teams now in a relatively short period of time….makes you wonder, no?
The only problem with the Kahun, Barrie and Turris et. al. signings is that they leave the Oilers extremely exposed to an RFA offer sheet for Ethan Bear. Smooth skating, play-making, RH-shot D-man who still has a lot of upside. Even a $4.3m AAV deal plunges the Oilers into a pile of cap trouble and would only return a second round pick in compensation. Squeaky bum time!
I don’t imagine any team is offering Bear over $4M in the current market.
I’d be shocked to see any qualifying offers this offseason.
Go Get Haula!
Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Puljujarvi
Kahun / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Ennis / Turris / Kassian
Benson / Haula / Neal
Nygard / Khaira / Haas / Archibald / Chiasson
I know this is very unlikely. I doubt Haula would come here with Turris already taking up 3C, but 4C would be a pretty nice spot with Benson and Neal. I bet they could really clean up on soft competition. And I think it’s getting to the point that Haula might take around $1M too. The musical chairs are disappearing fast.
GeorgeXS showed us a while back that points/game is a pretty damn repeatable statistic for NHL forwards.
Convinced me that it’s probably the single best number to measure offensive ability for a forward in the NHL.
0.5 points/game is a rough cutoff for top 6 forwards in the NHL. This past season the cutoff for top 6 was 0.47 points per game (that’s what Athanasiou scored, in his worst season).
Actually only 172 NHL forwards who played 35+ games scored 0.5 points/game this past season. That’s 5.5 per team.
Somehow the Oilers currently have 9 of them on their roster. And as I mentioned earlier, 3 of them (Yamamoto, Ennis, Kahun) are earning under $1M this season, with another (Turris) under $2M.
That’s some damned impressive work by Holland.
What about the Dmen that actually produce points at even strength though? They do exist. The Oilers have 2 of them.
Past 2 seasons:
The #93 NHL forward (1st/2nd line cutoff) scored 70 even strength points.
The #186 forward (2nd/3rd line cutoff) scored 48 points.
Tyson Barrie scored 61 even strength points.
Darnell Nurse scored 59 even strength points.
That would have tied them for 124th and 142nd among NHL forwards in even strength scoring. Solidly among 2nd line NHL forwards in points at even strength.
Why don’t you care?
It’s fun to stay at the YMCA.
He played 39.4% of his minutes in Chicago vs elites. 2nd on the team.
i think this talk about Kahun being a sheltered 3rd liner is greatly exaggerated. Didn’t HH start it FFS?
We’ll see how he does when the rubber hits the road.
He’s a third line player until he proves otherwise.
But you’re the one who labeled him a 3rd line player. An objective view would put him as a top 6.
It’s like calling Elias Pettersson a third line player until he proves otherwise.
Pettersson played 4th line comp in 18-19, and Pettersson/Miller played borderline 2nd/3rd line comp this past season.
Kahun played 1st line comp in 18-19 and 3rd/4th line comp this past season.
Kahun played 39.4% and 26.1% TOI vs elites.
Pettersson played 26.4% and 30.4% TOI vs elites.
Who needs to prove what now?
I asked a good friend who is a big Hawks fan what he thought about the Oilers signing Kahun and he replied: “Smart move. You will love his hustle. He never takes a shift off; can play all three forward positions. Is defensively responsible”.
Roster is good LT! Now goalies need to be better balanced? These two guys damn near split the games down the middle and they didn’t know who to start in the playoffs. So balanced those two. And Klef is still on the roster, so.
Stop your running. We want the photo!
Memeko Koskidaddy Stan
@koskidaddy
· Oct 20
Elliotte Friedman: “I’ve heard some rumblings about the Jets potentially being interested in Mackenzie Weegar … Kyle Connor is probably gonna get moved … I heard the Minnesota Wild have some interest in Ryan-Nugent Hopkins too.” #GoJetsGo #LetsGoOilers #MNWild
If any of you put in the effort to see what GAA is needed in final 4 series wins.
Team have to give up less than 2.00 GAA.
That is 48 minutes of Even and 6 minutes of PK.
The median is 7.16 pkga/60 so 6 min is .72 pkg in a gm
means we need to have d that only give up 1.28 evg/48 Min
that is 1.60 evga/60.
Russell – Benning 0.79/60
Jones – Benning 1.22/60
————————————— Holland you fool
Russell – Klefbom 1.50/60
Nurse – Larsson 1.66/60
Russell – Larsson 1.77/60
Jones – Russell 1.95/60
Jones – Larsson 1.96/60
Nurse – Russell 2.02/60
————————————— Rovers let you get crushed.
Klefbom – Larsson 2.65/60
Nurse – Bear 3.23/60
Dmen generate even production at a #10 to PB fwd rate.
Do not care about their even offence.
PP points are 3 times easier to generate than Evp.
we only need one PP QB.
Leadfarmer & I agree Barrie is that guy.
#15 1st assists/60
#17 total assists/60
#18 ppp/60
top 45 Ppg/60;
Quality of competition?
Show some effort in your response.
Of course, the only effort that counts for Rikki is what he has determined as the metric that matters and stated so as law.
Quality of competition on PP?
5×4, 4×3, 5×3.
it is an advantage situation.
if you are referring to Quality of comp at even.
you want your 2 elite evga/60 pairs the most even minutes possible against the highest comp they can generate those numbers at.
Giving the brutal pair as low as minutes as possible at whatever comp they face.
Larsson was the #1 1st comp HD open sh reduction dman from 14/15 to 16/17.
Larrson is are 1st comp RD.
It is a choice between Russell and Nurse as a partner.
Russell has been a 2nd comp anchor playing Left or right D.
Our 4 best available def D pairs all involve.
Larsson (3 pairs)
Russell (3 pairs)
Nurse (2 pairs)
Jones (2pairs)
Of note, Wheeler has Holloway as 4LW on the opening night Team Canada roster (and Hendrix L. as the 14th forward).
Nice. Very nice.
Kahun (.975M) 111fwd have 23 evg and 64 evp in the last 2 seasons.
#111 fwd cap hit is 5.3M
Archibald (1.5M) 179 fwds have 22 evg 38 Evp last 2 seasons
#179 fwd cap hit is 3.35M
Ennis (1M) 185 fwds had 21 evg 40 Evp last 2 seasons
#185 fwd cap hit is 3.2M
Kassian (3.2M) 103 fwds had 29 evg 58 Evp last 2 seasons
#103 fwd cap hit 5.5M
RNH (5M) 52 fwds had 34 evg 77 Evp last 2 seasons
#52 fwd cap hit 6.75M ( Gaudreau)
Draisaitl (8.5M) 2 fwds had 58 evg 139 Evp last 2 seasons
#2 fwd cap hit 11.643M (Panarin)
Mcdavid (14M) 4 fwds had 54 evg 135 Evp last 2 seasons
#4 fwd cap hit 11M (Tavares)
he has the ability to increase both wingers summed cap value by 3-7M
Yamamotto (1.124M) 10 fwds had 9 evg 24 Evp in teams last 30 games.
#10 fwd cap hit. 9.85M (Seguin)
that is 8 top 186 ( top 6) even production fwd depth.
I identified this the day it was pointed out on HF boards he was following the oilers.
Serious depth before we mention JP.
We are all excited about the increased balance, depth and talent of the roster, as we should be. At the same time, I would posit that a main issue last year was not only depth scoring but leaking goals against at 5 on 5. The Oilers have increased skill through the lineup but, when looking at it, most of the adds (save Kahun) are really offensive minded players with various and questionable levels of defensive acumen.
Its almost impossible to say that Hoffman over Neal wouldn’t make the team better, i get that, but, at the same time, I’m not sure adding a totally one-dimensional offensive player (and really mainly a PP guy) that is known to be well below average defensively, is what the forward group needs. Frankly, I would almost rather have Neal as its less risk than Hoffman leading to more goals against than goals for.
Lots of money saved for sure, you are correct. Just a few thoughts on this:
1) Larsson and Barrie open up $10M but that’s two 20-23 minute per night right shot D that need to be replaced with that money – subject to Bouchad being full time 3RD at that time.
2) Not sure Kassian is tradeable straight up with the current market – I don’t see next off-season any different than this one. Cap will likely still be $81.5M. $3.2M will buy alot in next year’s free agency.
3) Don’t see any way Seattle takes Neal unless he has an even better season than last year and even then. There will be alot of teams exposing good players with high cap hits – cap space will be kind next off-season, just like this one. Good players with high cap hits that are closer to value for their cap hit will be available, I presume – could be wrong.
I was meaning to respond to Kinger on this as well but got distracted and forgot.
It is a fun exercise & I agree with you on Neal & Kassian.
Unless Bouchard gets traded (not given away but traded for value) I agree he is on the team full time next season after this. I have a feeling that Barrie is the one retained with Larsson moving on.
RD will be the B’s – Barrie, Bear & Bouchard.
There are 8 UFA contracts set to expire after this coming season. I would be surprised by re-signs for any but Nuge & Barrie. Ennis maybe depending on how this year goes.
Well, the other “no-brainer UFA re-sign” has already been taken care of….. the essential Kris Russell extension.
I’m just kidding, I have no issue with his extension.
At the time of signing there was a wide variety of thoughts on the contract. Many thought it was egregious, some happy with it and many in between. I did read/hear some of the “talking heads” saying that any team in the league would sign that contract.
Maybe that contract was “claimable” in February but is it now with the market re-set?
$3M X 4 can buy alot in the current market it seems (well, next off-season, maybe only Hoffman is left that will get that type of money or more – kind of the point, i guess).
I think you can make this argument for any contract signed pre-covid, though, OP. It changed the entire economic market across the league.
Maybe not for the very top end but for the middle in particular.
They are getting the treatment the lower end got when the cap first started to impact line ups.
Oh, for sure, that’s the reality we are in now though, post-Covid and I’m not so sure that the Kassian contract could be traded at all or even “disposed of on waivers”.
See Tyler Johnson as loose comparison.
There were many that thought the contract was essentially untradeable prior to the market re-set. I wouldn’t have gone quite that far, I didn’t like the contract but I understood why and that there were GMs that value the player and would be amenable to acquiring it. Now though? I’m not so sure there would be many, if any, takers.
To reply to this and the original post by Woogie, I heard something recently (I think it was from Holland but I can’t say for certain), the implied (or at least I inferred) that Klef might be trying to rehab it and will see how it is when a camp date is set and will likely make his ultimate decision around that time.
I inferred there was/is indeed a chance that he is at camp ready to play the season but it was definitely not expressly stated.
Ha – for me, he’s gone from “the numbers show that Nygard/McDavid should be explored as an option” to potentially in the AHL, not even on the roster let alone in the lineup.
Wow, the AJHL is going to be a different league for a while.
We know Dylan Guenther was loaned to Sherwood Park a few days ago and now Jake Neighbours has been loaned to Brooks.
He should be heading to Edmonton in a week for the World Juniors camp but, well, Hockey Canada and some of their decisions….
I missed that news. Holy shit Guenther is going to napalm the AJHL — that kid is legit.
With respect, I couldn’t disagree more on the Neal buyout. Holland seems to be doing a great job improving the team year over year with smaller bets with little term risk (Kassian aside) and setting himself up to be able to make more substantial bets in the future. There were very few goalie contracts signed that didn’t come with term risk for older tenders. He could have cleared space with the buyout and signed the Khudobin or Griess contracts but he is adding term risk for older tenders, a position where swings upon arrival on a new team is common, and then adding 3 years of dead cap hit pain on an iffy bet.
Yes, goalie is a potential issue but we know that Mikko won’t be a complete sieve and goalie is an areas where in-season acquisitions are generally cheaper.
For sure, I think Staples was advising his rate was right there with Hall’s…..
Of course, producing against the softs (after Crosby/Malkin take on the toughs) isn’t quite the same as doing it with increase TOI (fatigue) and playing against top comp. Of course, playing with better linemates should help.
I do note, he played 127 minutes with Malkin (and had a much better goal share without Malkin – don’t know about his individual scoring rate).
We’ll see if it translates to playing those tough minutes with better linemates. I think it will.
Putting Turris on McD’s LW with Nuge Centering that 3rd line holds some intrigue for me as well, or even Nygaard with McD, Nuge on 3C and Turris centering the 4th line. If you squint you can almost see 4(FOUR!) scoring lines.
Imagine if we could somehow offload Neal and replace him with Hoffman? ???
Thinking about my earlier post and how there are so many “legit options for the “4th line”, maybe, there is the potential here to do some “load management” and give guys like Neal some night’s off – we’ve seen Neal at his best, and a positive contributor, when fresh and healthy.
He spent more of the season (before he went on IR) playing with a broken toe. We saw in the play-in how much better he can be at 5 on 5 when fully healthy (and fresh).
Also constructing a 4th line for tactical need. Playing a team with some big smashy lines? Throw out Khaira-Neal-Chiasson.
Playing a team that has speed top to bottom? Haas-Archie-Nygaard.
Obviously with some tweaking to make sure you have enough PK players in the lineup etc.
For sure.
I would think that its tough for a veteran coach like Tip to healthy scratch a guy like Neal or Chiasson for load management and/or construction reasons but, then again, he did healthy scratch Russell a few times in favor of Jones.
If they are “good vets” they should be fine with it – in particular if the schedule is uber-condensed.
What games did he scratch Russell “a few times” for Jones? There was one, the last game against Winnipeg, after Russell played 4 games after returning from over a month off from injury that I remember. Other than that, refresh my memory, which other ones did he scratch Russell for Jones?
Looks like polling -48 every time he posts has sent our resident Troll scurrying back under his bridge. What a joy to read a whole comments section that is positive and funny – just like the good old days.
I think Holland has done a stellar job so far – playing the long game with Jesse gives us all of his considerable potential (for peanuts) and he has also signed 3 solid third line+ forwards for substantially less than market value (Ennis, Kahun, Turris).
Barrie is also a v good contract although I think we will miss Oscar more than we seem to collectively be thinking.
although….what if Oscar heals well and we can slip him back in the lineup 10 games before the playoffs start (by trading Russell at the deadline?).
Exciting times
The consensus of a mob holds no interest to me.
I don’t think ‘mob’ means what you seem to think it means.
I’ve been a student of mob behavior for decades.
its pretty easy to spot.
I took a logic class over a decade ago, and I think they covered the appeal to authority fallacy.
It is pretty easy to spot.
Back to school for you.
“A mob is only as smart as the stupidest person in it”
Non sequiter. I merely pointed out that you used the word ‘mob’ incorrectly. The dictionary definition I supplied (Merriam Webster) corroborated my assessment.
I believe you were trying to say that you have no interest in the consensus of the majority.
That is a legitimate opinion in general. One I happen to share.
I am not sure it is applicable to the motley crew that hangs around here, though, since there is quite a diversity of opinion on most matters; but the general sentiment has merit.
None of this, of course, addresses the issue that I referred to which is that you used the word ‘mob’ incorrectly.
How sad.. you have to label people correcting or educating you as “the mob”.
Ahahahaha.
How sad you are at the bottom of the food chain.
That doesn’t even make any sense.
Is this you not being liquored up and angry?
Ahahahaha
Has anyone noted that it’s DomeniKKahun?? I forget whose comment it was originally, but here’s hoping the double consonant rule holds!
Signing Kahun proves Holland is a genius manager.
Kevin Lowe would be getting MacT to put on a face mask before the Zoom call.
We were robbed of seeing the Drai/Nuge Yamo buzzsaw in the playoffs. They ‘earned’ the right to start the season together. Kahun sounds like exactly who we’ve been pining for service with Him, past with Drai not withstanding. Put him up there and tell Wild Eyes he better show up shredded and chomping on the bit.
It’s gonna be a crazy season. What’s the chances teams are allowed to carry extra players? I think it’s pretty good and I think Holland is getting ahead of it with all these bargain signings. For a season of uncertainty, he’s trying to provide both a competitive team and flexibility going forward. He’s done a hell of a job – maybe other than the goaltending but I think once Markstrom was gone he took a cautious, low risk approach there.
I just hope Kahun isn’t stuck to Drai and pulls down the Art Ross, Hart winning player. That is one of the best players in the league so Kahun has gotta be the goods to stick with him.
I think if the AHL doesn’t return this year, which remains a distinct possibility with no gate revenue, then the NHL would probably consider an extended roster.
Stupid Pasquale indeed. He’s been on fire! Still, I don’t think that takes away from Konovalov as a prospect for the Oilers. In a way I wonder if Pasquale being on a prolonged heater and taking away game time from Konavalov helps push him towards signing the ELC before next season? I.e. not getting KHL time might make it really easy for him to come and try out the NHL for a bit.
If the Oilers have as good a year as I’m hoping (I’m trying not to get carried away), the chance to win big can override the whole desire for more cash in more than a few cases.
Good points and can’t disagree. I’ve been assuming that Konovalov will be looking to sign his ELC once his current KHL deal is up in May but it is just an assumption – for all I know he has little interest in the NHL (I doubt it though or the org would know).
Either way, just hopeful he’ll get his string of games some time soon – he’s done very well himself – just hope it continues once he gets the opportunity.
Yeah, I’ve wondered if he might want to stick it out in the KHL – some guys do. You’d think the org would have carried out enough homework to know that there was a good chance he’d come over for at least a few years to try it out. Or at least kicked his tires a bit before using the draft pick on him.
The prospect is percolating well either way, and I like to think that the opportunity to play with McDavid and Draisatl is now a huge selling point for players in any league.
https://youtu.be/-mofKJlHuEM
Half of these goals are McCann (that boy can shoot the biscuit, tell ya what) but it does show Kahun’s real skill which is offensive awareness. And speed. What I like about this is I think he can set up Draisaitl nicely. My concern is Kahun’s primary playmaking ability doesn’t gel with McDavid’s needs. Draisaitl has the trigger, I could see a lot of tic-tac-toe between the two of them with Yamamoto fighting in the dirty areas for the Smyth goals. Move RNH up with Connor to provide defensive acumen and the goal scorer, both of which have really solidified in RNH game last few seasons.
Yamo with Connor and Nuge, Kahun, Drai and Puljujarvi
Listening to Stauff and he cited an Oilers lineup against the Red Wings last year about a year ago. Archie and Nygard were hurt and the lineup was:
Drai/McDavid/Kass
Khaira/Nuge/Gagner
Neal/Haas/Chiasson
Jurco/Sheahan/P. Russell
Take a look at that and then take a look at:
Nuge/McDavid/Kass
Kahun/Drai/Yamamoto
Ennis/Turris/Puljuarvi
Neal/Khaira/Archie
Chiasson/Haas/Nygard
Just, wow!
If Benson shows up to play, none of the guys ahead of him are so proven or sufficiently established to block him (except Nugent-Hopkins) if he is perceived to be ready.
Do I think he is going to take a job? Unlikely. But how many of us expected Bear to in a similar situation.
100% I agree with this sentiment. The Oilers didn’t have a ton of cap space but they have still been able to use the owners willingness (and ability) to spend to their advantage.
You mention one-way contract sand at least three will be buried in the AHL (P. Russell, Alan Quine plus whoever Kahun has kicked off the opening night roster).
Not to mention, even a guy like Seth Griffith, who is on a 2-way deal, has an AHL salary of $450K and $475K for the two years.
I was one that was willing to qualify AA at $3M – although worried about a higher award in arbitration, I thought the bet at $3M would be worth it.
I was CLEARLY wrong – I knew the market would be different this off-season but didn’t appreciate the magnitude of the reset for the middle tier players.
I would take Kahun over AA and he’s coming in a third of the price I originally was OK with on AA.
Great work by Holland this off-season.
Holland has added Ennis-Turris-JP-Kahun for about $5m. Given the bargain prices for useable players, he should have bought Neal out and used the $3.8m in savings to add to the roster also. He could have used part of that money to get a real NHL goalie to share the load with Koskinen.
Kahun’s signing probably saves a few $ against the salary cap if someone like Khaira is sent to the AHL. And at least we aren’t having to play our AHL level players on the 4th line if they aren’t producing.
I have to agree with the premise that the tending remains a bit of a risk and question mark but, at the same time, Mikko Koskinen had a solid year last year – his traditional numbers were almost identical to Markstrom – yes, he played less games, different teams in front of the tenders, etc., however, his traditional numbers were solid and his advanced numbers were even better.
As long as he doesn’t regress and is able to perform at that level with an increase workload – 65% of the games, if not a bit more, then the tending should be fine.
The question is can he do that? Its reasonable to suggest he could be its also reasonable to suggest he might not be able to.
As LT has alluded, there will be tenders available during the season if they need more from Mike Smith and he isn’t able to provide it and Forsberg isn’t either.
It’s Kosh third season him and his family are settled in. I predict he goes on a heater early which allows the team to relax and with Barrie push for more offence from the backend. If the Hawks in game 3 don’t score those two fluky goals in the last 5 minutes we win the series and who knows how far Kosh could have taken us.
Can’t really disagree here – Holland has put in a blocker for Benson not too dis-similar to what he did for Bouchard (although Bouchard is the clear 1st injury replacement on right defence, Benson will need to battle with the likes of Nygard and Khaira to get that injury opportunity).
Here is hoping that the org and Benson do agree that he returns from Europe for camp and a potential AHL assignment – he is a big long shot for opening night but injuries do happen and he can still be the first injury replacement if he has a good camp and start to the AHL.
LoL
Really detailed article from Wyshynski and Kaplan on what 2020/21 may (or may not) look like:
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/30240929/nhl-2020-21-season-plans-latest-format-line-challenges
For me, a big takeaway is that, obviously, trying to get some sort of fans in the stands for at least some portion of the season (and the playoffs) is important for the NHL, even if that isn’t really possible and season may be played “at a loss”, not playing at all is not an option in Bettman’s mind.
Inferring from the article, a short-terms loss is a better option than the long term ramifications of cancelling and entire season. As Brian Burke says: “people find other things to do”.
Getting 31 owners on board with potentially playing knowing a financial loss is likely may be a a bit tougher but Gary will get er’ done.
– NEXT year: there is a lot of potential new salary at disposal of this team:
– Larsson contract expires: $4.2MM
– Russell contract savings : $2.75MM
– Chiasson contract expires: $$2.2MM
– RNH contract expires: $6MM
– Barrie contract expires: $3.8MM
– Smith contract expires: $1.5MM
– Neal to Seattle: $5.7MM
– Trade Kassian: $3.2MM
– Sure some get resigned/reupped, but thats well over $30MM of contracts that allow the team to reconfigure in a best case scenario.
-The moves made in the next 24 months determines the outcome of the team for the rest of CmD/Drai’s contracts. Holland has had some good small-ball moves net, wonder what he does when he’s got a big pot to play with: that’s the opportunity and risk
Neal to Seattle? Ha ha Kinger….you’re allllllright!
The more time stretches on – the more likely it is that the remaining players will take 1-year deals in the hope of things being better next offseason.
The Oilers are an ideal landing spot for this sort of player. Go get another one. This squad isn’t championship-good yet – which is the only thing that matters.
The Kahun signing, to me, really puts the opening night healthy lineup in to focus.
I think the top 6 forwards and 3rd line is really clear.
The only real potential decision as far as who is in the top 6 is Kass vs. Jesse on Connor’s right wing and I think the pencilled in lineup subject to camp is Jesse.
The only lineup deployment question is really which of Kahun or Nuge is with Leon and which is with Connor.
At the end of the day, the top 6 is set.
The Kahun signing allows Ennis to be all put officially penned in at 3LW and a 3rd line of Ennis/Turris/Puljujarvi all but set.
The real question is how to deploy the 4th line – how does coach get each of Neal, Archie and Chiasson in the lineup as, obviously they need one of Khaira or Haas to center.
Nygard looks like he’s on the outside looking in, not only for the lineup but potentially for the roster as there are too many forwards.
Its absolutely amazing that, to me, this team has a legit 1st, 2nd and 3rd line and many options for a legit 4th line.
Connor’s right wing maybe is a stretch for a legit top line player (and maybe his left wing as well) but there will be skill there and the line will produce – McDavid is on it.
Just my opinion but because of the flat cap that will probably last for several years now McDavid will always have to deal with either an ELC or a sub-optimal skilled player on his line.
It is the cost of his contract.
When he signed it it was probably calculated that by the mid point the cap would have risen enough that it would allow for true 1st line help on the wings but here we are.
And I agree that it will always produce because McDavid is that good but it will probably always have at least one complementary player who viewed objectively is more suited to 3rd line competition.
Puljujarvi is a wild card. Do we get back the guy who left or the guy we drafted or somebody in between – which is my guess.
Kahun – McDavid – Puljujarvi by mid season is a nice daydream to contemplate.
Can’t disagree with you on any of this.
We know that Kassian isn’t a “legit top line winger” (while he does a solid job when he’s playing well and confidant – just too inconsistent, in particular with 2-way effort and board battle).
We don’t know that Jesse Puljujarvi isn’t a “legit top line winger” – he’s 22 with pedigree. He very well may not be that guy but the dream of a fit in the top 6 on merit is not a pure fantasy – its got a chance.
Come on Jesse – you can do it.
I’d still like Erik Haula on the team. And Madison Bowey, and Ben Hutton. Greedy? At $1M each? Seems anything is possible this year.
My only worry going into this season is goaltending. With a possible shortened season and possibly some form of bubbles, there may be a lot of double header weekends and back-to-back games as they travel to one town and play 3 or 4 games in a row. This will mean that Smith may get a lot more starts than he would otherwise. That scares me. If his high PK SV% was an anomaly, then his SV% might be in the 890 area. Yikes! That means losses. What is the schedule is compressed such that they almost have to split the games 50/50?!?! Greiss would have been nice, and he could have joined the German crew building in Edmonton. I wonder if he was ever offered something lower than he got from Edmonton and if he would have considered it.
Was stuck in a trial all last week so did not get a chance to see the new look of the site until now. Swanky.
Love, love, love the Kahun signing. Don’t know if he’s the piece that allows Nuge-McDavid to become a season-long thing but sure hope so.
Now to patch the hole in net…
OMG, THIS IS SO EXCITING!
I love that Kahun has outscored Draisaitl on almost every team they played together on.
Of the seasons when they played on the same team, here are their stats:
Regular Season
Draisaitl
GP – G – A – PTS – PIM – +/-
254-221-294-515-285-18
Kahun
GP – G – A – PTS – PIM – +/-
269-185-325-510-48-21
Playoffs
Draisaitl
GP – G – A – PTS – PIM – +/-
18-30-24-54-6-7
Kahun
GP – G – A – PTS – PIM – +/-
18-18-36-54-2-6
If he can keep up to Draisaitl, maybe they can unlock a star player.
Hi 5v5 Points/60 certainly are promising.
They’ve possibly played nearly 270 games together, and likely as linemates the whole time. And I’ve really like Draisaitl’s interviews when he speaks about his fondness of Yamamoto and his game. I’m very optimistic about that line. And I’m also optimistic about Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid playing together (eventually with Puljujarvi?)
Can’t wait for camp!
Wow Drai was goon– 285 PIMs in 254 games haha
He looks like a total bum compared to Leon. Less points in more games. What a terrible signing, fire Ken Holland
It will be really nice not having to actually have the “two 4th lines” in the lineup at the same time!!
“Part of my heart remains in Game 7 postgame, suspect it always will.“
LT, as someone who was too young to remember the 90 cup win, this line really resonated with me.
Extra spring in my step this morning folks. Great pickup in Kahun. Holland is tuning this roster nicely 🙂
That 06 playoff lineup brings back memories.
Love the new website design LT. Well done Ryan; Looks sleek. And comments with a timestamp no less!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB2yiIoEtXw
Definitely think Kahun needs a few developmental decades in Utica, gotta slow cook these superstars.
My goodness this forward lineup looks so pretty this morning. Kahun may not be a “legit top 6 2-way forward” but, then again, he’s scored at top 6 rates through his career and had positive goal share with middle six line mates. Sure, producing against tougher competition is a thing but having elite line mates is also a thing.
At worst, Kahun is a legit middle six left winger and a legit option to play up with skill. Between him, Ennis and Benson (and even Nygard), there are options for a 2nd top 6 left winger with Nuge and that is huge.
As far as which of Nuge and Kahun play with McDavid or Drai, I put zero stock in Kahun’s history or friendship with Drai. Production together at 16 in a junior German league has no value right now, in my opinion.
My first thought is that this signing should allow Tip to keep Nuge on 2020’s top line in the league and see if Kahun fits with McDavid.
with that said, I think we all know that Tip wants Nuge with Connor so I think we’ll see Kahun lineup with Drai to start camp.
This is so exciting – it allows Ennis to fill out a really offensively skilled third line and provides left wing injury cover.
The list of guys neighbouring Kahun in EV P/60 scoring the last two seasons are legit, legit top 6 forwards and some of them are legit first liners.
This is a fantastic signing.
I wonder if the Kahun and JP signing light a fire under Kassian, if not could he be disposed of as easily as putting on waivers and having somebody claim him?