Waste Not, Want Not

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers signed defenseman William Lagesson to a two-year contract yesterday, $725,000 cap is about $100,000 less than I’d estimated. Two-way deal first year, one-year deal the next. Lagesson is waiver eligible , but I think it’s wise to keep him in the NHL all year. We’ll see.

You can never have too many defensemen, and an NHL team should be damn good and sure about a young blue before sending him away. History has been teaching that fact forever.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

LAGESSON

He’s rocking the Allsvenskan currently, and that’s a good thing. I was impressed with his numbers when a member of the Bakersfield Condors. In 92 AHL games, Lagesson’s on-ice even strength goal differential was 82-58, +24. In the same two year period, Ethan Bear (43-29, +14 playing just 2018-19) and Caleb Jones (59-46, +13 in a year and 14 games 2019-20) flourished and found NHL employment. His offense is (imo) underrated, at even strength in Bakersfield Lagesson kept pace with his two more famous teammates. He is NHL-ready and NHL-calibre. Now, he just needs to fly some sorties and find the range.

PROJECTED ROSTER ($2.5M CAP ROOM)

No. 7 defensemen play a lot and there are several injury possibilities among the top-six as listed. He could get into 50 games and might be the expansion player lost to the Kraken. You might think that’s a waste of development but every team will lose a player. Lagesson’s value would need to increase this season in order for him to be a viable expansion possibility for Seattle. I can’t imagine his value will increase enough for Edmonton to protect him.

As it stands now, my expansion list is (1-8) Mikko Koskinen, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi. If Ryan Nugent-Hopkins signs, or if Dominik Kahun has a breakout season, JP might not be protected. That leaves Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris, Dominik Kahun and possibly Puljujarvi in the mix with Lagesson for selection.

BLEEDING BLUE

I’ve mentioned this countless times, but the best example of running through useful defensemen at breakneck speed without getting full value was the 1968-72 Toronto Maple Leafs.

In 1968-69, the rookie defensemen who played for the Leafs were Jim Dorey (a talented wild man), Rick Ley (undersized but tough and strong), Pat Quinn (a horse, big hitter), Mike Pelyk (great skater, defense first) and Jim McKenny (chaos blue, talented offensively).

In 1969-70, Brian Glennie (hard hitter, defensive defenseman) was the only rookie of note. In 1970-71, Brad Selwood (rugged two-way type) completed the group (seven men).

They traded some, lost others to the WHA and by 1973 the team’s shining lights were two brilliant rookies (Borje Salming, Ian Turnbull) and a very few holdovers (Pelyk, McKenny, Glennie).

Ballard didn’t want to pay Dorey (who would have six quality seasons in the WHA, two for the Toronto Toros) so dealt him to the New York Rangers for Pierre Jarry. The Rangers took a chance and lost (Dorey was an early jumper to the new league) but I’d rather do that than trade a player for 10 cents on the dollar.

STYLE

Lagesson is an important player because has his defensive, shutdown ability. Edmonton’s current shutdown gem Adam Larsson is a year away from free agency. Lagesson joins young Dmitri Samorukov as the great hopes of the future in this area and there’s a possibility Philip Broberg grows into that role (although probably as a ‘two-way’ defender based on his current numbers in the SHL). We don’t know that Lagesson could play the Larsson minutes but it’s worth investing some 2020-21 minutes in this player.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning we are live on TSN1260 with two fabulous guests. Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show joins us at 10:20 to talk about the WHL lending quality players to the AJHL and what it means. We’ll also chat World Juniors. At 11, Frank Seravalli pops in and we’ll chat offer sheets and Mathew Barzal. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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LadiesloveSmid

Just not sure Lagesson has the NHL boots, more at-bats will tell.

I’m glad Edmonton isn’t paying Strome $9M over 2 years (wow, that was the Nikitin contract).

GordieHoweHatTrick

yes but it would have been quite nice to have him here the past few years at 3.1M instead of the Ghost of Ryan Spooner

OriginalPouzar

Trurth be told – over the course of the remainder of their contracts, Strome was more value at $3.1M than Eberle was at $6M.

Strome may have been more valuable straight up, without even taking contract in to account.

JJS

It will be fascinating watching teams position for the Seattle expansion draft

GMs outsmarted themselves last time and Vegas played it perfectly

I can’t see the same thing happening this time round

Seattle will not be nearly as competitive

And thankfully, we won’t have a Griffin Reinhart to worry about

ArmchairGM

I wonder if it’s possible to leave Seattle only options that we WANT to get rid of. What if the only players exposed were Neal, Kassian, Russell and (say) Smith? Would they bite or would they select one of our UFA’s even if they knew they couldn’t sign them?

ArmchairGM

I don’t see the wisdom in protecting 3 lefty blue in next summer’s expansion draft (and leaving some decent young forwards exposed to do it) when Broberg and Samorukov will arrive imminently. It just seems illogical to me.

pts2pndr

Totally agree especially given our difficulty in acquiring cost effective wingers for the top six. We also have good young left shot D close in the pipeline.

defmn

I’m so old I can remember when it was common knowledge here that wing was the easiest position to fill. 😉

OriginalPouzar

In the last few months the GM acquired Puljujarvi and Kahun – both with top 6 potential for very cheap. Throw Ennis in there.

Clearly we have more real organizational depth in LD but Holland seemingly did what has been a stated issue.

Elgin R

Still unsure why Tippet played Manning instead of Lagesson – but water under the bridge I guess. During the upcoming compressed season (more back-to-back and less days off), both Lagesson and Bouchard will be required to play for the Oilers. Both are ready for 3rd pairing at bats in the NHL.

If Lagesson impresses and is taken by the Kraken, that is the best case (other than them selecting Neal, which they won’t) for the Oilers. Kraken taking from a position of strength will not hurt the Oil. Where will Lagesson be slotted on the team in 21/22. Broberg will have arrived and pushed him out.

On ‘Bleeding Blue’ the Oilers are the modern poster boy for this: Petry, Shultz, Gustafson, Surray, Osterle, Davidson etc. The team always needed RD – so they got rid of some!

OmJo

I’m still unsure why Manning was even an Oiler to begin with.

Last edited 28 days ago by OmJo
rickithebear

#1 open shot (can actually go in) reduction dman in NHL 14/15 to 15/16.
just ahead of #2 Larsson.
but Manning 3rd comp vs Larsson 1st comp capable d.
#4 rate in 19/20.

19/20:
Sekera #1 1.15 (2nd comp capable)
Manning #4; 1.24 (3rd comp)
russell #6 1.60 (1st/2nd comp)
Benning #11 1.79 (2nd/3rd comp)

Reja

Pete was trolling Mcdavid and Oiler fans.

flyfish1168

I prefer they take K Russell. Young Wm has a place in my line up as a 3rd LHD.Even with Broberg waiting. I see Kelfbom not ever being reliable to play full season again and prefer to move him. His nice contract will be needed to improve his trade value since his injury reputation will hurt it.

defmn

A year is a lifetime in a hockey player’s career so speculating on the Kraken draft is just for fun with so many things that could or couldn’t happen.

Klef could be out the entire season or show up to camp.

Puljujarvi could show signs of the guy everybody thought he would be.

Nuge might decide to test free agency.

But the outlier that I haven’t heard mentioned is Koskinen. From all reports Holland tried to land Markstrom last month. That is not a strong endorsement for a GM that won a Stanley with Osgood in net.

Does it make sense to dangle Koskinen in the hopes of freeing up his $4.5 M to protect more coveted players and turn his contract into shopping money for a replacement in free agency or via trade?

It might if Holland sees an opportunity.

OmJo

Nuge would never do that to us!

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Assuming Jones fares well this season, I expose Klefbom. His injuries and the consistent discrepancy between goal share and expected goal share in conjunction with the host of LD around/behind him lead me to be comfortable moving on. On account of his current injury, he’s the most likely to not get picked if exposed and if they take the risk, that’s an additional 4.1mil in space to put towards improving the team.

Many disagree, but that’s fine.

defmn

I agree with this. The cavalry is arriving & Klef’s injury history is beyond worrisome at this point.

You hate to lose a good player but that is what is going to happen.

We are going to lose a good player.

Cassandra

I also agree with this, it is the same argument I made yesterday regarding Nurse.

The only difference is I think that 2 years of Klefbom at a lower salary is worth more than 1 year of Nurse. However, as you say, we are a year away from making that determination. Without the injuries it is an easy call, but the injuries are real.

My objection is to the idea that either of these players must be protected. That is the kind of veteran bias that should be avoided. This is the untold story of the last expansion draft, many teams began with assumptions on who they had to protect and made mistakes because of it. They protected players rather than contracts and ended up losing on both.

It is an easy call to leave either Klefbom or Nurse unprotected. You are going to lose a player no matter what. You are going to lose a good player no matter what. So lose the older, more expensive, player with fewer years on their contract. That’s the plan.

pts2pndr

The problem with your rationale is the fact that Klefbom has a bad shoulder and is rumoured to be considering retirement. He has also not been healthy for a full season for some time. An injury prone D verjsus healthy minute munching D is a no contest decision.

Yeti

We’ll see how Klef pans out this coming year, but presuming the injury isn’t entirely resolved Holland should definitely look to capitalize on that sense of risk with Klef. It would be a brave Kraken to select a player rumoured to have been considering retirement on account of chronic pain…

Pechetr

Klef is done. He has been broken for years. Has played 1 full season out of 7. Can’t have a our number one D man missing 20 games a year. I like him as a player but need to be prepared to move on without him. Kbom has 435 games under his bely in 7 seasons. By comparison, the “oft injured” Adam Larsson has played 479 over the same span.

defmn

You are preaching to the choir. I have gone on and on and on over the years about how it is illegal to trade human beings. 😉

Professional sports leagues trade contracts. The value represented by those contracts should be the primary determining factor in any trade discussion in a capped league.

Not how good the player is but how good is the player in relation to the % of the cap that he occupies.

It is part of balancing the team.

who

Wouldn’t you try and trade him for a forward rather than just expose him to Seattle?

OmJo

You can make a reasonable assumption that Kahun will have a breakout year, regardless if his C is McDavid or Draisaitl. So I think he should be considered for expansion protection. The strength of the prospect pool skews heavily towards defencemen so maybe that’s where the sacrifice should be made.

Cassandra

Exactly. Protecting 4 D could be a big mistake.

OriginalPouzar

I could argue that, even with a similar type season to his last two, protecting Kahun could be considered.

Sierra

would sure be nice to not have a $9M fourth line
(using our gracious host’s projected line-up)

defmn

How about the 6th line of Lucic, Sekera & Pouliot at $4.6 M? 😉

Sierra

Haha, that’s awesome.

GordieHoweHatTrick

The Lagesson signing is good news and the contract is ideal. It is team friendly (not unexpected) and is structured to possibly scare away some that may consider him on waivers should he need to be put on…

OmJo

OP,

To the extent the decision is made that there are three more valuable d-men to protect than Klef then I can’t imagine any scenario where a trade doesn’t make more sense than exposing him. Even if that trade is at low value, that value is likely better than losing him for nothing.

He can be traded for picks or expansion exempt assets. His cap hit is low enough that there should be plenty of teams that can take it on without needing to give cap back. Thinking about it further, the asset return doesn’t even need to be exempt as its likely a forward and I don’t imagine 7 non-exempt forwards to protect ahead of a Klefbom return, even at low value.

What kind of return are you expecting for Klefbom, considering he could very well miss the entire season, is coming off surgery (?), and any team acquiring him will need to value him as one of their top 3 D enough to give up a valuable asset to get him and another to retain him?

Is getting “low value” for Klefbom in a trade and then losing one of Puljujarvi or Kahun (assuming they both have very successful years – this team needs wingers) worth more than losing Klefbom for “nothing” and retaining both of them? Or maybe you trade him to Seattle in exchange for them picking Neal *hides*

JimmyV1965

I think if you trade Klef, the rationale is to protect 7-3. You wouldn’t lose those forwards.

rickithebear

2 way defender?

Fwds initiate Oz/NZ transition defence.
The 2nd most critical Zone entry affect. (Coaches decision #1)
Transition def dictates how Dmen defend.
A. Press the blue.
B. Collapse to perimeter of HD SH density area.

The true DZone is the HD SH density area.
Area were, I established, Open shots go in above the league average. (Shots into a wall, the goalie, have 0% success density)

The Only + ve goal differential affect of any Dman is to provide 2D -1G defence of the path to true Dzone. (HD SH density area)

You Never provide a free path to HD area to their defensive side.
As we know the game is 100% based on open shots. (Bio Evo targeting)

Dmen stop defending the instant you abandon def of free path to chase offence.

Fwd
Rover
dman
Goalie.

Video evidence does not care about opinion.
Blocked Corsi, Missed Corsi, Hit goalie (Wall) are 0% success density Corsi.
Video shows Rovers yeild disgustingly high open shot (>0% success) counts to their def side.

Remember!
LT taught us Pennants are the true measure of an org.
Being in final 4 team means you are the 13% that has a shot at being a 2.00 to .50 GAA average team in their 4 wins in a final 4 series.
1 of 2 teams that win Championships.

Teams win Championships as the #28 reg ssn or worse GF team.
Dal did it this yr.

Being an Elite GA depth (2D -1G) def sys ( Coach) structure.
A. Elite HD Open SH def sys coach.
B. Top 10 +ve Open SH Save% goalie
C. 4+ Top 60 HD open SH reduction (High xSave% baseline) dmen
F. Elite PK Fwd and Dmen.
4 of the 6 parts of 26 yrs of 3+ repeat final 4 teams that are top Champ Core Roster Structure Proof.

Woogie63

If the NHL builds a taxi squad into this year’s league, i.e. team’s can carry 26 players. I think Klefbom plays this season. Klefbom, Russell, Jones, Lagesson splitting 2 roster spots across 48-60 games is going to be to opportunist for 77 to pass up.

Yeti

In terms of lines, we have long pined for the appearance of unicorns: that mythical beast composed of three scoring lines. But what – for the sake of discussion – if we were setting our sights too low, searching for the wrong mythical beast? What if we should have been aiming for yetis, not unicorns: the ultimate four scoring lines team. Yetis – as you likely know – pose a threat wherever you look at even strength and then follow up with stunningly top heavy special team units…

e.g.
Ennis – McDavid – Kassian
Kahun – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Archibald – Nuge – Puljujarvi
Neal – Turris – Chiasson

(N.B. Granted, there may be a reason that no-one has proof that yetis exist).

BONE207

Please let there be a substantial season so that all the forward & defensive question marks can be evaluated for the coming expansion details & future seasons. That’s all I want for Christmas…🌲. Gord knows I’ve had enough for 1 year…🖕

Ryan

Cassandra

Reply to  defmn

November 5, 2020 9:47 am

My objection is to the idea that either of these players must be protected. That is the kind of veteran bias that should be avoided. This is the untold story of the last expansion draft, many teams began with assumptions on who they had to protect and made mistakes because of it. They protected players rather than contracts and ended up losing on both.

Looking back, veteran bias was a prominent theme in expansion protection. It was also a costly mistake. That along with being forced to protect certain vets due to contract status.

Boston protected Kevin Millar instead of Collin Miller… the end result was that it was Miller time for the Vegas Golden Knights.

Anaheim was stuck because they had too many players that they were forced to protect and didn’t want to lose Rakell or Silfverberg, so they were pushed to a 7-3.. Not getting Bieksa to waive or buying him out cost them Theordore.

Washington lost Nate Schmidt.

Florida was a huge loser of the expansion draft. They went with a 4-4 and protected bottom pairing defensemen Petrovic and Pysyk…

Most teams (about 23 iirc) went with the 7-3 protection scheme. It’s likely most teams go in that direction again.

This means many teams will lose a good defenseman.

Having too many good defensemen to protect is a product of having good roster construction.

Ideal players to protect are either star players or those under 26.

Last edited 28 days ago by Ryan
jp

ArmchairGM

 Reply to  JJS

 November 5, 2020 8:57 am

I wonder if it’s possible to leave Seattle only options that we WANT to get rid of. What if the only players exposed were Neal, Kassian, Russell and (say) Smith? Would they bite or would they select one of our UFA’s even if they knew they couldn’t sign them?

How would you achieve that though? Trade Puljujarvi, Kahun, Jones, other?

If you leave Seattle nothing worth picking what’s left on the Oilers roster post-draft?

ArmchairGM

This idea was actually mentioned on LT’s show this morning. Going 4-4-1 in order to protect 3 LHD’s is silly with Broberg and Samorukov pushing, so the thing to do is to trade one of the LHD for a forward at the end of the season and protect 7-3-1, like this:

F:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nugent-Hopkins
Yamamoto
Kahun
Puljujarvi
New forward

D:
Nurse
Klefbom / Jones (assuming one of these is traded)
Bear

This leaves Neal, Kassian, Turris, Archibald, Khaira and K Russell as the only NHLers left exposed. None of whom can’t be replaced with better players for less money.

Last edited 28 days ago by ArmchairGM
defmn

Now all you have to do is find a team that only has two dmen of its own that they want to protect & offer them a better deal than all the other teams that want to trade their fourth dman for a forward or draft pick.

Not that it can’t be done but not that easy.

jp

This is exactly what I was getting at. You’re trying to trade one of your D for decent value at the literally the worst time to do so.

If Jones has a season like Bear just had, and Klefbom is back playing and healthy then you might find a team willing to trade and protect them.

But if Jones/Klefbom’s seasons go like that then maybe you accept losing Puljujarvi or Kahun and trade Klefbom/Jones AFTER the expansion draft when you can get actual fair value for them.

What you’re proposing is great in theory, just extremely difficult to pull off.

Last edited 27 days ago by jp
ArmchairGM

You’re missing the flip side though: I’d rather trade Klefbom for 75 cents and then lose Neal/Kassian to Seattle then trade him later for 100 cents and lose a valuable young winger like Puljujarvi or Kahun to the expansion draft. You have to look at the whole picture.

rickithebear

It is pretty interesting the on the fly changes per 60 range from 217 evmin Dmen (7 x 31)
Carlson 33.3/60
Bortuzzo 61.0/60
some have
-very controlled matchup risk potential
Carlson #217 33.3
Nurse #206 37.9
bear #203 38.3
Klefbom #197 38.8
Barrie #183 40.6
Larsson #172 41.5

-some have middle of the curve
Russell #91 46.7

-Some get told go get them.
Bortuzzo #1 61.0
Manning #2 59.3
Lagesson #7 56.9
Benning #9 55.7
jones #58 49.0

Sheltering is more about
A. controlled bench change volume (high greater risk) and
with possession (high xCF) or without possession ( high xCA)
B. Then FOZS. FA off wins by zone that creates xCF and xCA.
C. Then Team/ comp combined ( has to be both)

Yes my 3D player situation graphs establish a baseline (expected = x) for every data value. (07-08)

Ryan

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

November 5, 2020 9:10 am

Assuming Jones fares well this season, I expose Klefbom. His injuries and the consistent discrepancy between goal share and expected goal share in conjunction with the host of LD around/behind him lead me to be comfortable moving on. On account of his current injury, he’s the most likely to not get picked if exposed and if they take the risk, that’s an additional 4.1mil in space to put towards improving the team.

Many disagree, but that’s fine.

I read the comments backwards (from newest to oldest, always have) … which is why I was disappointed that having the newest comments at the top wasn’t popular. I can click to sort them that way anyway.

I was thinking about the very question that you framed here.

By the expansion draft, Klefbom will be around 28 years of age with 2 years left on his contract. A healthy Klefbom at that age and contract status would have extreme value.

On the other hand, it’s always hard to predict how defensemen will age out.

For every Jeff Petry, there’s a Drew Doughty or PK Subban or more.

Age 30 is a concern for NHL defensemen, even mobile defensemen like Subban and Doughty.

We’ll see this year, but injuries to Klefbom aside, it Jones shows he can play top four minutes well, a healthy, mobile, 24-year-old top who can play effective top four d has extreme value.

If Jones shows well this year… and Klefbom recovers from his shoulder injury (that’s a big if), it will be interesting to see where things go for the expansion draft.

Most GM’s in this scenario would chose the 28-year-old more proven vet… Given the value of having the heart of his career still ahead of him (Jones), I am not sure that would be the right answer. It will depend, of course, on Klefbom’s injury recovery and Jones’ performance this year.

Last edited 28 days ago by Ryan
GordieHoweHatTrick

Agree. Generally see Klef as the potential bait, but lots of road between now and then.
Ryan, why is your Oil pressure so low?? And how do I get one of those fancy red “Admin” boxes next to my name? 😉 Thx again on the site “re-fresh”.

Ryan

Ha, thanks! Looks like it’s time for a Gravatar refresh too. https://en.gravatar.com/
I have had this Gravatar here forever since the DOD.

I haven’t asked Allan how he feels about the admin box. I am sure he isn’t thrilled about it. It’s an unfortunate consequence of the comment system we’re using.

Primetime

Needless to say, this is a huge year for Jones in shaping the future of his NHL career. He needs to be outstanding in order to convince the Oilers to protect him in the expansion draft, or if they chose not to, that Seattle sees enough in him to take him to play on the NHL roster.

If that doesn’t happen, and Klef comes back healthy, he is suddenly behind Nurse and Klefbom, and potentially Broberg and Samurokov…ie, no longer on an NHL roster…

OriginalPouzar

Tough to find anything negative about signing an NHL ready player to a two year contract that has a cap hit less than the NHL minimum in the 2nd year (although there was an attempt for the west coast yesterday….).

I don’t think another d-man will be added to the organization (Mattheson intimated that Holland told him he isn’t looking at another d-man) and I don’t imagine they will expose Lagesson to waivers.

If the D-corp is healthy, I imagine he’s essentially locked in as #7 although I guess Bouchard (or even Broberg) blowing the doors off at camp could change that.

I see Bouchard assigned at the end of camp but a recall will happen at some point during the season. Broberg, if he is here for camp, I anticipate finishes his season in Skelefteea and then we see him when the snow melts but there is a chance he joins Bouchard in the AHL.

Lagesson will get his NHL games this year, injuries happen and he should be the 1st one in. Even if its an injury on the right side, Lagesson may get in (with Jones or Rusty shifting over).

There is even a chance he gets in without injury either by surpassing Russell or perhaps with some load management and giving the likes of Russell the odd night off.

Willie has a chance to be a real NHL player – he is a better skater and puck mover than Larsson (well, puck moving in theory, he hasn’t done it at the NHL level yet). He is Adam Larsson light in the defensive zone – a solid and aggressive defender – not as tough or dirty a Larsson but the man can defend.

OriginalPouzar

LadiesloveSmid

Just not sure Lagesson has the NHL boots, more at-bats will tell.

I’m glad Edmonton isn’t paying Strome $9M over 2 years (wow, that was the Nikitin contract).

Lagesson is not a poor skater though – he skates better than Larsson, for example.

Ryan

I watched him play live once. It was the New Year’s Eve game.

He had a slightly awkward stride, maybe that’s why people think he’s a slow skater. His skating overall was quite good though… not amazing edge work or feet, but he got around the rink fine.

Mostly it seemed that his processor wasn’t quite up to NHL speed yet. I’m sure the game will slow down for him.

Melman

I hate to be that guy, but Broberg scored 1-2 in his first game of the season and has only 2 apples in the next 12. Yes he is young and yes he can skate, but this year’s stats have to be viewed in the correct context, so let’s not start thinking he can come in and move the needle next September.

OriginalPouzar

Not sure where Matty heard/read this from Granato but, frankly, I wish that he could get in to more than a couple of games for Wisconsin prior to being away from the team (for potentially like 7 weeks):

comment image
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl

U of Wisconsin coach Tony Granato sounds like guy who would like Dylan Holloway to play more than opening Nov. 13-14 Big 10 series vs Notre Dame before flying to Alberta for world junior team camp opening Nov. 16 in Red Deer.

OriginalPouzar

Its probably from the article with one of these two headlines (which I don’t have access to):

Big Ten coaches aren’t sold on sending players for all of Canada’s long World Juniors evaluation camp

Badgers’ Dylan Holloway picked for Canada’s World Juniors camp, setting up potential scheduling quandary

Last edited 27 days ago by Ryan
defmn

Not sure if I am allowed to post the whole thing but something tells me this is not an article that generates revenue so hoping it is alright.

Hockey Canada wants its prospects for the World Junior Championship to be in Alberta for an evaluation camp starting Nov. 16.

A pair of Big Ten Conference hockey coaches don’t sound convinced that’s the best option for their invited players, who could miss most of the first half of the NCAA season.

Michigan’s Mel Pearson drew some heat on social media this week for saying in a Michigan Daily story that he’s not sure he’ll let freshman defenseman Owen Power attend the camp.

University of Wisconsin coach Tony Granato, who’s in a similar situation with sophomore forward Dylan Holloway, said Wednesday that he didn’t think Pearson was off base.

Pearson said he has to weigh Power’s development and academics in deciding on sending one of the top 2021 NHL draft prospects away for as long as 51 days.

“I would like to let Owen experience it and go there,” Pearson told the Michigan Daily. “But at the same time, I’ve got to look at the overall picture and what’s right for Owen going forward, overall, not just for a two-week camp that’s played at Christmas time, but for his overall growth and development and academic interest.”

When he heard about Pearson’s comments Wednesday, Granato offered some backup for his counterpart.

“I don’t think Mel said anything wrong there that should offend anybody,” Granato said. “It’s the truth.”

Hockey Canada’s evaluation camp is so long because most Canadian major junior leagues — a primary source of the country’s World Juniors roster — aren’t playing until 2021. Big Ten teams, meanwhile, could fit in 12 games before the tournament begins Dec. 25, Granato said.

Holloway and Power are two of four NCAA players invited to Canada’s evaluation camp, joining Boston College forward Alex Newhook and Northeastern goalie Devon Levi.

While Granato said a decision hasn’t been finalized yet, one possibility is that Holloway will leave for the Canada camp after UW’s opening games of the season on Nov. 13-14. The Big Ten schedule hasn’t been released while the conference works out TV arrangements but Granato said the Badgers will play two games that weekend.

“If we can keep him for a few other series and get him there in early December like the original plan was, that would be good for everybody, including Dylan,” Granato said.

TSN reporter Darren Dreger tweeted Tuesday that Pearson’s comments reflected an “interesting position by Michigan. Don’t think I’ve seen this before. Great development opportunity for every young player to compete on the world stage.”

Granato said he understood how important the World Junior Championship, set to be held in a bubble in Edmonton during the COVID-19 pandemic, is to Canada and Canadian players.

The Badgers have good reason to want Holloway, a first-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers this year, around for as long as possible, too. Not only is he expected to be a top-six forward for UW, a long absence would test the team’s depth in a year where there are already concerns about the impact the coronavirus will have on rosters.

“You’re asking a lot of a young man to leave school for that length of time for an 11-day tournament,” Granato said. “I know it’s a unique situation. I know it’s a unique year. It’s a unique year for all of us. That’s why we’re playing a lot of games before Christmas, because we’re squeezed as far as the length of our season.”

He added that UW, Michigan and Minnesota tried to get a lot of games on the schedule before the middle of December, when a dozen Big Ten players could be trying to make World Junior rosters.

Badgers forward Cole Caufield, the Big Ten’s leading scorer last year, likely is a lock to make the U.S. team. Teammates Owen Lindmark and Sam Stange, both forwards, attended the American evaluation camp last month.

The U.S. team is planning to bring its players together around Dec. 9, closer to when the final camps have begun in past seasons.

“For us to be able to play 28 league games, you want your best rosters,” Granato said. “You don’t want to have eight games over Christmas when you’re missing the best players in your league because they’re playing in a different tournament. So we structured our schedule. Our athletic directors and administrators were very conscious and made a big commitment to us as coaches of starting earlier like we are. We’re starting earlier than basketball.

“And the reason we thought we were able to do that was because of their understanding of the fact that we were going to lose a lot of players from the Dec. 10 through Jan. 5 timeline for that tournament. And that’s obviously been extended.”

Last edited 28 days ago by defmn
Ryan

You seem to have an affiliate link to subscribe to the Washington State Journal in your comment.

You might want to edit your comment to remove that.

godot10

Holloway should stay at Wisconsin and play there.

defmn

That is probably better for Wisconsin but I am not sure it is better for Holloway.

Opportunities like this build memories that last a life time.

That might seem of non-hockey value but I don’t think it is right to rob a kid of a dream he has probably had for years.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM

I wonder if it’s possible to leave Seattle only options that we WANT to get rid of. What if the only players exposed were Neal, Kassian, Russell and (say) Smith? Would they bite or would they select one of our UFA’s even if they knew they couldn’t sign them?

That would be great but how would you create this scenario?

Even if a d-man like Klefbom was traded – that would leave Lagesson exposed.

I will continue to operate on the basis that Nuge will be resigned as I think that is by far the most likely sceanrio. That mean, they would probably protect: McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Kahun, Turris and perhaps Turris doesn’t get protected if the asset back in the d-man trade needs protection. That leaves the likes of Benson, Kassian, Archibald, Turris, etc. available.

Last edited 28 days ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

Kahun has been loaned to the Munich RedBull in the DEL.

Its almost exactly a year from my wife attending a RedBull game in Munich!

Harpers Hair

Did she post any topless selfies on Twitter like her husband did? 🙂

defmn

This is a new level of tastelessness even for you.

Side

Wow, you’re hitting the bottle early tonight. It’s been getting earlier and earlier for you lately.

Sierra

that should earn you a timeout.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM

I don’t see the wisdom in protecting 3 lefty blue in next summer’s expansion draft (and leaving some decent young forwards exposed to do it) when Broberg and Samorukov will arrive imminently. It just seems illogical to me.

Doesn’t it depend on the value of the LD that would be exposed vs. the value of the non-LD that would be lost if the LD was protected? For example the value of Jones vs. Puljujarvi or Kahun?

Exposing a more valuable player because of the depth at the position is akin to taking a lesser player in the draft due to position/area of need.

The simple fact here is that we just don’t have the information we need right now to really make this decision and we will have much more at the end of the truncated system. We don’t know (but will know):

  • the status of Klef’s health for the last two years of his contract
  • if Jones takes another step to become a legit 2LD or maybe even pops like Bear (or does not grasp the opportunity in front of him)
  • how close Broberg and Sammy are to the NHL – do they project to be NHL options for 2021/22 and, if so with what type of realistic deployment
  • does Jesse re-establish himself as an NHL player and, if so, does he look like a 3rd line 2-way guy or did he show legit top 6 production/upside?
  • Similar with Kahun
  • Did Benson pop and become a legit NHL player?
  • Did Turris re-find his top 6 production
OriginalPouzar

Thank you to defmn for posting the Wisconsin article in full.

Right after the date of the 5 week camp was announced I expressed some potential concern and wondered what was/is best for Holloway and his development.

I mean, I really want him to play in the tournament – its a great experience and likely a life-long dream of his.

At the same time, is a 5-week camp, playing intra-squad games and a 6 against the likes of the Bears and Dinos and being away from his school team for 5-7 weeks really the best for him? He is a bubble player and could be at camp for 5 weeks and then not make the team.

I’m pasting a small piece of the article again below. I would anticipate that if Dylan only attends the later portion of camp, his chances of making the team will be pretty low (unless he’s killing it at school….):

————

While Granato said a decision hasn’t been finalized yet, one possibility is that Holloway will leave for the Canada camp after UW’s opening games of the season on Nov. 13-14. The Big Ten schedule hasn’t been released while the conference works out TV arrangements but Granato said the Badgers will play two games that weekend.

“If we can keep him for a few other series and get him there in early December like the original plan was, that would be good for everybody, including Dylan,” Granato said.

rickithebear

It is clear on hear that people have diffrent standards of what is successful theory.

I have found that current academics is distorting what success is.
I was trained by individuals who could not afford 1 single error to occur.
Space Shuttle failures.

We see rehabilitation success standard of 15-30% being considered great by academia.

Yet we now see identification of Bio Evo drivers of criminals being eliminated thru Chemistry having a 95% success rate.

I cannot consider 25-60% accurate Corsi values usefull.
Especially with the ability to sort the data and create individual xValues for things like CF and CA based on the 3 factors I listed.

look At OZstart% range:
Fatenburg 29.3% (toughest) and Krug 74.1% easiest.

19/20 top 217 evmin Dmen:
Benning 41.7 #32 hardest.
Larsson 42.50 #36 hardest
Russell 42.9 #40 hardest
Jones 46.7 #71 hardest
Klefbom 52.5% #150 hardest (187 starting d)
bear 55.2 #169 hardest
Nurse 55.4 #170 hardest
Barrie 61.5 #205 hardest

So we have know seen 5 of our Dmen get lower on the fly/60.
then you add in FO zone sheltering.
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Barrie are given easy time in both situations.
Soft bench change volume and soft def zone FO starts.
the evidence is clear.
you may not like it but Facts are Facts.

Now if we seperated Bench change by with or without pocession.
We track teamates WOWY.

Ryan

Couple of things.

Zone starts are controversial. Some fancy stats analysts suggest that they don’t matter as much as we thought. A portion of the bad zone starts are earned by icing the puck, for example.

Also, you have to make sure that you’re using true zone starts that include on the fly shifts as some sites don’t include those in their calculations.

Given that Benning has led the Oilers in OTF shifts, I suspect you might not be using true zone starts though I am pressed for time at the moment.

Last edited 28 days ago by Ryan
Ryan

Also, I would appreciate it if you would spell “pocession” as “possession.”

OriginalPouzar

Cassandra

 Reply to  OmJo

 November 5, 2020 9:48 am

Exactly. Protecting 4 D could be a big mistake.

Exposing a d-man like Nurse or Klebom could also be a bit mistake.

I started the conversation in yesterday’s piece that the Kahun acquisition and Jesse coming back may lead to them needing to go 7-3-1 but, subject to Klefbom not being ready to play hockey in 2021/22, I can’t get on board with exposing a player as valuable as Klef, Nurse or what I anticipate Jones will be after this season.

A trade would be much more prudent even if the value is diminished due to circumstance.

There are way too many unknowns at this point (which I posted in an earlier post) to make a determination either way.

OriginalPouzar

Sierra

would sure be nice to not have a $9M fourth line

(using our gracious host’s projected line-up)

Sure is nice to have a super skilled 3rd line for under $4M……

Sierra

What does one have to do with the other?

OriginalPouzar

GordieHoweHatTrick

The Lagesson signing is good news and the contract is ideal. It is team friendly (not unexpected) and is structured to possibly scare away some that may consider him on waivers should he need to be put on…

I agree that contract is great but how would its structure scare an org from claiming him on waivers?

Harpers Hair

Not at all but nearly all teams have a prospect of equal value.

OriginalPouzar

Of course they do but what in the world does that have to do with the conversation you are injecting yourself in to? Like less than nothing.

Harpers Hair

Interesting discussion on TSN 1040 on the 25th anniversary of Pavel Bure’s debut in the league.

Craig Button draws a direct comparison between Bure and McDavid.

Both able to torch the D whenever they get the puck.

Both able to handle the puck at high speed with incredible edge work.

Both somewhat indifferent to defensive play.

Think they found a direct comparable.

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

OmJo

What kind of return are you expecting for Klefbom, considering he could very well miss the entire season, is coming off surgery (?), and any team acquiring him will need to value him as one of their top 3 D enough to give up a valuable asset to get him and another to retain him?

Is getting “low value” for Klefbom in a trade and then losing one of Puljujarvi or Kahun (assuming they both have very successful years – this team needs wingers) worth more than losing Klefbom for “nothing” and retaining both of them? Or maybe you trade him to Seattle in exchange for them picking Neal *hides*

I don’t know what the return would be but missing the season, recovering from surgery, etc. those are all highly speculative at this point. He very well may be trending to be fully healthy for 2021/22, we don’t know.

In any event, your second paragraph does not ring true as, with the d-man traded (whether it be Klef or Nurse or Jones), it leads to the ability to protect 7 forwards and the Kraken will have their choice between Russell, Lagesson and the 8th plus most valuable forward available

OriginalPouzar

Woogie63

 November 5, 2020 10:10 am

If the NHL builds a taxi squad into this year’s league, i.e. team’s can carry 26 players. I think Klefbom plays this season. Klefbom, Russell, Jones, Lagesson splitting 2 roster spots across 48-60 games is going to be to opportunist for 77 to pass up.

I don’t see how that would have any bearing on Klefbom’s decision.

The extended taxi squad wouldn’t be players on the active roster – it would be akin to having those players in AHL, they are simply with the team and practicing with the team. They would still be subject to normal cap implications and assignment protocols such as waivers etc.

It would only happen if the AHL isn’t playing and I am confidant that it will be.

At least that’s how I see a potential taxi squad working and the split you anticipate wouldn’t work for cap reasons.

OriginalPouzar

Things can change over time (and this could given training camp is likely to happen when Broberg happens to be in, not only the continent, but the city) but, as anticipated, plan is still clearly to have him finish his season in Sweden.

Quote from Holland in Matty’s new piece:

“As for Philip Broberg, my thought is he’ll stay in Skelleftea until their Swedish season is over. Our NHL season will go way beyond that (so he can come to Edmonton). We’ve got some young defencemen.”

OriginalPouzar

As an aside, Matty also saying that Klefbom on LTIR would get him off the cap.

SIGH – this is why so many people get LTIR relief wrong. Matty is just wrong and he’s well read and this is spreading bad and wrong information.

ughhh – drives me crazy!

OriginalPouzar

Melman

 November 5, 2020 1:13 pm

I hate to be that guy, but Broberg scored 1-2 in his first game of the season and has only 2 apples in the next 12. Yes he is young and yes he can skate, but this year’s stats have to be viewed in the correct context, so let’s not start thinking he can come in and move the needle next September.

Personally I’m not gifting him a roster spot in pencil in for 2021/22 let alone thinking he’ll realistically impact the lineup this coming season (some do). With that said, I really couldn’t care less about his box-cars – they are nothing but gravy. He could finish the season with 10 points and that would be a fine number and certainly in line with teenage production in the SHL from many top 4, and even top pairing, NHL d-men.

His 19 plus minutes per game, 6 more than last year and the skill and confidence his is playing with – showing more “offensive and transition type instincts” than his draft day scouting reports – that’s where the huge up arrow comes for me.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to  OriginalPouzar

 November 5, 2020 5:23 pm

Did she post any topless selfies on Twitter like her husband did? 

If you had an 8-pack with apx 7.5% body fat at 43 years old, I’m pretty sure your social media would include pictures from your tropical vacations as well.

My dedication to fitness and nutrition is only matched by your dedication to trolling and the size of your resentments.

Smiley face in your post notwithstanding.

Harpers Hair

If I had an 8 pack, I would not under any circumstances try to aggrandize myself on social media with a link from a hockey website.
#narcissismisahelluvadrug

Scungilli Slushy

To me the Oilers need to receive value for any and all players , especially drafted players.

Losing a player of Klefbom’s stature clean is a bad outcome. Loads of players have injuries and recover and get traded or signed.

Part of the DoD was selling low on solid NHL players.

To keep the team and system strong good players that need to be moved age to bring back fair value.

Ideally the players exposed are bottom roster players. Every team will lose someone, but losing a quality established player is a fail.

Cap space is worth something, but losing a valuable player with no return is a depth drain.

it’s unfortunate that yet again an injury has hampered the team from being able to do what they want.

In a perfect world you would trade Klef because he has player value and contract value, will be covered by similar type players.

Broberg is coming hard as the next 3LD in the system.

Which means something has to give.

Nobody close enough covers Nurse’s skill set. But injury throws another slider.

I also hope Nuge agrees to a fair deal BUT waits to take it after the expansion draft.

Having a choice of expired contracts to bring back and exposing lesser players would be a breath of fresh air for a team trying to build depth and better quality.

OriginalPouzar

Small point – not every team will lose a player – Vegas won’t.

With full knowledge of the expansion draft ramifications, the sooner Nuge is extended the better – it provides cost certainty on an important piece and I don’t think either the team nor the player want to risk the wait.

Georgexs

I’m wondering about Ethan Bear.

Of D who played at least 400 5v5 minutes during the regular season, Bear posted a 3.21 GA60, ranking 11th worst out of 215 players. His main partner, Nurse, posted a 3.11 and ranked 14th worst.

Here’s Nurse’s GA60 in the past 5 seasons.

Season, GA60

15-16, 2.82
16-17, 2.49
17-18, 2.17
18-19, 2.81
19-20, 3.11

19-20 was Nurse’s worst year for the stat. I’m inclined to give him a pass.

I’m more suspicious of Bear, a younger, less experienced player the HC asked to play 21:58 a night in his first full season in the NHL. (In his 18 games in 17-18, Bear played 16:14 a night and posted a 3.49 GA60.)

3.21 really stinks. The Oilers were 2.72 overall. To put 3.21 in context, the Stanley Cup champs had the best 5v5 offense last season. They scored 2.95 GF60.

Brayden Point had a GF60 of 4.2, Kucherov was at 3.7. Bear’s numbers are thankfully better than that of a defenseman who played all of his 5v5 minutes against Kucherov and Point. That’s something.

What’s a better comparable?

Start by selecting forwards who played at least 400 5v5 minutes last season and rank them in descending order on GF60. Use the top 93 forwards as a proxy for first line talent. The median first line forward, ranked 47th, is Max Pacioretty, who scored 3.27 GF60.

Bear’s GA60, then, is about what you’d expect from a defenseman who played against typical top line competition for every single minute of his 5v5 ice time. Did Bear in fact play against top line competition all season long? Don’t think so.

And yet, and yet… Tippett believed in him all season long. He played him 21:58 overall a night and used Bear for about 37% of the team’s 5v5 minutes. I don’t think Tippett ever eased up on him.

Was Tippett rewarded?

In the four games against CHI, Bear went 6.14 5v5 GA60 and Nurse went 5.69, ranking 3rd and 6th worst out of 156 D who played at least 30 5v5 minutes in the playoffs.

Did that result come out of nowhere? Or was it consistent with what came before?

If you’re an opposing forward, don’t you want to play against Bear? If you’re an opposing coach, don’t you want to match up against Bear? A young defenseman playing big minutes, minutes during which opposing forwards score a lot of goals.

The only reason Bear’s GA60 didn’t ring alarms is because of the high number of minutes he got with CMD, with the resulting offense covering up the shaky defense.

Situation, TOI, GF60, GA60

Bear w/ CMD, 585, 3.79, 3.49
Bear w/o CMD, 723, 2.24, 2.99

CMD w/o Bear, 470, 3.19, 3.06
Neither, 1685, 1.85, 2.24

Bear’s results seem to be a classic case of a young D being asked to play well above his limits.

In 15-16, Nurse played 17:15 5v5 minutes a night (Bear played 18:25 this season) and recorded a 2.82 GA60, 9th worst that year out of D who played 400+ 5v5 minutes.

In 16-17, the Oilers brought in Larsson and Russell. Nurse was pushed back to the third pair with Benning. He played 15:19 5v5 minutes a night and posted an improved 2.49 GA60.

Methinks the Oilers (ahem, Tippett) would do right by Bear by dropping him to the third pair next season. He’s not ready for more than that.

OriginalPouzar

Brady Skeji
Brent Burns
Jacob Truba
Anton Sralman
John Calrsson
Matt Dumba
Damon Severson
Kris Letang
Mattias Elkholm

All of them near the top of the league in GA/60.

Harpers Hair

How were their GF/60?

Georgexs

Defensemen don’t control GA60. It takes lots of years of data to spot when goals seem to go in at a higher or lower rate with a specific defenseman on the ice. (Almost always, you find defensemen have no statistical impact.) But when you don’t have a lot of data on a player, the data that you do have carries more weight. If your limited data produces an extreme result, as in this case, you should take a closer look and see if there’s anything to contradict or balance the extreme result.

Nurse is near the bottom too, by the way. But, like Nurse, your list includes experienced defensemen who’ve posted lower GA60 in prior seasons. They have a track record that includes typical or better than typical defensive numbers along with worse than typical numbers. This year should be one of their worst, given you’ve identified they’re near the bottom. But it’s one reading in a series of readings that should convince you that individual defensemen doesn’t affect GA60 relative to their team.

But that’s not a good group to compare to Bear. Bear doesn’t have the experience nor the track record. He’s just breaking in to the league, and yet, he was asked to play more 5v5 minutes than a bunch of the experienced guys in your list. You have to pay more attention to the results.

It didn’t work out, did it? Bear couldn’t handle those minutes. Or we could say that he did and slot him into top pair minutes. I don’t think that’s putting the player in a position where he can succeed, a Tippett mantra.

OriginalPouzar

Sierra

 Reply to  OriginalPouzar

 November 5, 2020 8:26 pm

What does one have to do with the other?

Holland will provide Tip with a cap compliant 23 man roster which Tip will deploy in a manner that he thinks is best to win the game that night. There may be a $6M player on a fourth line and $850K player on the first line and three less than $2M players on a third line.

If we point out cap inefficiencies in the deployment isn’t it fair to also point out cap efficiencies?

Ryan

Georgexs

 November 5, 2020 8:44 pm

I’m wondering about Ethan Bear.

Of D who played at least 400 5v5 minutes during the regular season, Bear posted a 3.21 GA60, ranking 11th worst out of 215 players. His main partner, Nurse, posted a 3.11 and ranked 14th worst.

Here’s Nurse’s GA60 in the past 5 seasons.

Season, GA60

15-16, 2.82

16-17, 2.49

17-18, 2.17

18-19, 2.81

19-20, 3.11

19-20 was Nurse’s worst year for the stat. I’m inclined to give him a pass.

I’m more suspicious of Bear, a younger, less experienced player the HC asked to play 21:58 a night in his first full season in the NHL. (In his 18 games in 17-18, Bear played 16:14 a night and posted a 3.49 GA60.)

3.21 really stinks. The Oilers were 2.72 overall. To put 3.21 in context, the Stanley Cup champs had the best 5v5 offense last season. They scored 2.95 GF60.

Brayden Point had a GF60 of 4.2, Kucherov was at 3.7. Bear’s numbers are thankfully better than that of a defenseman who played all of his 5v5 minutes against Kucherov and Point. That’s something.

What’s a better comparable?

Start by selecting forwards who played at least 400 5v5 minutes last season and rank them in descending order on GF60. Use the top 93 forwards as a proxy for first line talent. The median first line forward, ranked 47th, is Max Pacioretty, who scored 3.27 GF60.

Bear’s GA60, then, is about what you’d expect from a defenseman who played against typical top line competition for every single minute of his 5v5 ice time. Did Bear in fact play against top line competition all season long? Don’t think so.

And yet, and yet… Tippett believed in him all season long. He played him 21:58 overall a night and used Bear for about 37% of the team’s 5v5 minutes. I don’t think Tippett ever eased up on him.

Was Tippett rewarded?

In the four games against CHI, Bear went 6.14 5v5 GA60 and Nurse went 5.69, ranking 3rd and 6th worst out of 156 D who played at least 30 5v5 minutes in the playoffs.

Did that result come out of nowhere? Or was it consistent with what came before?

If you’re an opposing forward, don’t you want to play against Bear? If you’re an opposing coach, don’t you want to match up against Bear? A young defenseman playing big minutes, minutes during which opposing forwards score a lot of goals.

The only reason Bear’s GA60 didn’t ring alarms is because of the high number of minutes he got with CMD, with the resulting offense covering up the shaky defense.

Situation, TOI, GF60, GA60

Bear w/ CMD, 585, 3.79, 3.49

Bear w/o CMD, 723, 2.24, 2.99

CMD w/o Bear, 470, 3.19, 3.06

Neither, 1685, 1.85, 2.24

Bear’s results seem to be a classic case of a young D being asked to play well above his limits.

In 15-16, Nurse played 17:15 5v5 minutes a night (Bear played 18:25 this season) and recorded a 2.82 GA60, 9th worst that year out of D who played 400+ 5v5 minutes.

In 16-17, the Oilers brought in Larsson and Russell. Nurse was pushed back to the third pair with Benning. He played 15:19 5v5 minutes a night and posted an improved 2.49 GA60.

Methinks the Oilers (ahem, Tippett) would do right by Bear by dropping him to the third pair next season. He’s not ready for more than that.

Georgexs.

You’re obviously a really smart person.

Questions.

Bear’s on ice save percentage at 5v5 was .902

League median for teams last year was .918.

How much influence did Bear have on the team’s on ice SV%?

Can you prove the NHL defensemen influence on ice SV%?

What would Bear’s GA/60 be with league median on ice SV%?

Last edited 27 days ago by Ryan
Georgexs

It’s hard to say what impact defensemen have on a hockey game. You’d have to watch a really good player like Pronger or Chara or Lidstrom to pick up on all the little things they do to help their teammates and frustrate their opponents, things that don’t show up in the counting stats. Things that involve their brains, their hands, their sticks, their skates, etc.

Counting stats only help so much.

With Bear, it’s simple. He’s young. In his second season in the NHL, he was asked to play 21:58 minutes a night, 53rd among defensemen. That’s unusual, particularly for a 5th round pick with 18 games of prior experience. Quinn Hughes, a player with a much better pedigree, played just a little less. To my eye, Hughes impacts the game much, much more in that je ne sais quoi way.

Goals went in at a higher rate with Bear on the ice, a high enough rate to make him stand out. Even on his team.

League median 5v5 sv% was .918.

Oilers overall 5v5 sv% was .912.

With Bear on the ice, it was .902.

With Bear off the ice, it was .919.

That’s not a big enough difference to be statistically significant. But you can’t pass over it either. One reason (apart from randomness) that there’s very little season-to-season correlation in numbers like GA60, and on ice sv% is that GM’s, HC’s, teams, and players don’t pass over them. They make changes. They adjust. If they didn’t adjust, players with past bad results would predictably get future bad results. But that’s not how the league works. Players with consistently bad results get dropped from the sample. Everyone is always trying to get better.

Bear doesn’t have a good result yet to offset the bad result. So, if you’re the Oilers, you don’t assume that he can handle the situation you put him in before if you just put him back in there again. You adjust. The Oilers adjusted with Nurse. They adjusted with Klefbom. Barrie coming to the Oilers is a sign the team intends to adjust with Bear too. That’s a good sign.

Btw, you keep using the word prove. I remember that from before. I’m not sure any one has proved anything with hockey stats. I could be wrong. Do you know someone? Dellow? Tulsky?

Go the Howie Meeker route. Roll the video back. Watch some YT highlights and see if the way Bear plays defense makes you confident that he has no influence on sv%. It’s not fair because defensive plays don’t make the highlights, such is the defenseman’s lot. But watch his ability to read the play, to make a play, and his ability to react. Tell me if his athleticism and level of play is high enough, impactful enough, consistent enough that it makes you comfortable with sending him out next season for 22 minutes a night.

who

Well hell, I can tell you what you want to know.
Bears read and react skills were very good last year. He broke up a lot of plays by reading the play and using a very active stick.
I think it’s fair to question his athleticism. He is not overly big, and his skating is average at best. But there’s nothing wrong with his brain or his hands.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to  OriginalPouzar

 November 5, 2020 9:21 pm

How were their GF/60?

I would encourage you to do your own research in particular when the answer is one that will blow up in your face.

Bear and Nurse would be 3rd and 4th in GF/60 on that list behind only Letang and Calrsson and they would be 24th and 26th in the league in that category.

defmn

Speculation on how an all Canadian division would work out.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-favourites-finish-atop-canadian-division/

jp

Georgexs

 Reply to  Ryan

 November 5, 2020 11:15 pm

Bear doesn’t have a good result yet to offset the bad result. So, if you’re the Oilers, you don’t assume that he can handle the situation you put him in before if you just put him back in there again. You adjust. The Oilers adjusted with Nurse. They adjusted with Klefbom. Barrie coming to the Oilers is a sign the team intends to adjust with Bear too. That’s a good sign.

I feel like this is much ado about nothing.

Bear was -6 in 5v5 minutes for a team that was -16 at 5v5.

He played 37.0% of his teams minutes and incurred 37.5% of the teams negative goal differential.

He played more than almost anyone on his team against the best players in the league, and more with the best players on his team.

And you mentioned his time with McDavid:

The only reason Bear’s GA60 didn’t ring alarms is because of the high number of minutes he got with CMD, with the resulting offense covering up the shaky defense.”

You showed that Bear scored more and gave up more in minutes with McDavid. You also showed that McDavid scored more and gave up more in minutes with Bear.

The sum of all that, which you didn’t really mention, was that McDavid outscored more with Bear than without. On the season McDavid was +3 with Bear, +1 without Bear.

From there I have a difficult time arguing Bear only got a pass on the season because he played lots with McDavid (who you must be aware was on the ice for 3.30GA/60 in each of the last 2 years).

Ryan

Georgexs

 Reply to  Ryan

 November 5, 2020 11:15 pm

It’s hard to say what impact defensemen have on a hockey game. You’d have to watch a really good player like Pronger or Chara or Lidstrom to pick up on all the little things they do to help their teammates and frustrate their opponents, things that don’t show up in the counting stats. Things that involve their brains, their hands, their sticks, their skates, etc.

Counting stats only help so much.

You’ve always been a mostly math person here (from my perception), so it’s good to see you looking at the game from an observational point of view too.

With Bear, it’s simple. He’s young. In his second season in the NHL, he was asked to play 21:58 minutes a night, 53rd among defensemen. That’s unusual, particularly for a 5th round pick with 18 games of prior experience. Quinn Hughes, a player with a much better pedigree, played just a little less. To my eye, Hughes impacts the game much, much more in that je ne sais quoi way.

Goals went in at a higher rate with Bear on the ice, a high enough rate to make him stand out. Even on his team.

League median 5v5 sv% was .918.

Oilers overall 5v5 sv% was .912.

With Bear on the ice, it was .902.

With Bear off the ice, it was .919.

The Oilers had Mike Smith and his .900 SV%, so there’s that.

Bear had the most toi vs elite on the Oilers.

One of the most robust effects for GA/60 will be playing the most against the league’s best players.

Doing so with Mike Smith behind you is going to lead to predictable results.

That’s not a big enough difference to be statistically significant. But you can’t pass over it either. One reason (apart from randomness) that there’s very little season-to-season correlation in numbers like GA60, and on ice sv% is that GM’s, HC’s, teams, and players don’t pass over them. They make changes. They adjust. If they didn’t adjust, players with past bad results would predictably get future bad results. But that’s not how the league works. Players with consistently bad results get dropped from the sample. Everyone is always trying to get better.

The bold text just sounds like something I’ve typed here a few times. 🙂

For defensemen, here are the factors that influence their GA/60

  1. Where they play in the lineup. i.e. percentage of type against elites
  2. The goalie on their team
  3. Their defensive parter
  4. How good of a team they play on. Crappy teams get caved at 5v5

1 and 2 are repeatable measures. Elite players score at predictable rates year over year. Goalie stats are probably more variable but still quite repeatable.

Year-over-year, teams will try to improve goaltending or add more top four defensemen if possible.

Other factors would include player age. Younger players presumably will improve with more experience while they’re a variable decay for older players. Injuries are important too.

Bear doesn’t have a good result yet to offset the bad result. So, if you’re the Oilers, you don’t assume that he can handle the situation you put him in before if you just put him back in there again. You adjust. The Oilers adjusted with Nurse. They adjusted with Klefbom. Barrie coming to the Oilers is a sign the team intends to adjust with Bear too. That’s a good sign.

Well, there’s also the issue of injuries. Larsson is not very reliable for 82 games. At the beginning of last season, we had Bear and a Persson of interest as the top four RHD. Persson was heavily sheltered with favourable zone starts. In the playoffs, we lost Larsson again, so Russell was elevated to the top four. Barrie was added for multiple reasons including the above and to replace the injured Klefbom on the PP

Btw, you keep using the word prove. I remember that from before. I’m not sure any one has proved anything with hockey stats. I could be wrong. Do you know someone? Dellow? Tulsky?

I’m just messing with you. I know that it annoys you and motivates you at the same time. I’ll stop.

I wasn’t sure what you might come up with, so I wanted to motivate you to find out.

I think the correlations for on ice SV% and ga/60 are more repeatable at the within team vs league level, for example, in terms of analysis.

Go the Howie Meeker route. Roll the video back. Watch some YT highlights and see if the way Bear plays defense makes you confident that he has no influence on sv%. It’s not fair because defensive plays don’t make the highlights, such is the defenseman’s lot. But watch his ability to read the play, to make a play, and his ability to react. Tell me if his athleticism and level of play is high enough, impactful enough, consistent enough that it makes you comfortable with sending him out next season for 22 minutes a night.

My opinion, which I’ve mentioned here, is that league has an archetype of an ideal defensive pair that teams strive to replicate. This would be to pair the small, speedy, puck movers/transporters with a large stay at home type.

The Oilers have several players that don’t quite fit that mold

Bear has many of the elements, of the puck mover/transporter type, but he’s not fast.

Nurse while strong, has trouble boxing out players without taking penalties.

Also teams have learned to focus their forecheck on Bear since Nurse isn’t very good or much of a threat to make an outlet pass.

Last edited 27 days ago by Ryan