Stay Free

by Lowetide
Photo treatment by Darcy Mcleod

There are two development seasons that are the most important markers for a prospect: His draft season, and his age 20 season. The classic Oilers draft pick plays in the CHL or Europe in his draft year, plays in the AHL at 20 and we can pick him apart based on what happened to other comparable prospects in the past.

Tyler Benson’s draft season was injury riddled and just below one point per game. His first AHL season, age 20, was a home run and just below a point per game.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

BENSON’S COMPS

Dillon Dube, drafted after Tyler Benson in the same draft year, is an excellent draft day comp for Benson. Go figure. Dube’s NHLE arc is just a little higher than Benson’s, as you can see, and the Flames have an NHL player (45, 6-10-16 in 2019-20). Even in his best season, 2018-19, Benson can’t catch Dube.

Benson is a fantastic passer (the photo above is evidence) and plays a gritty game (he can win a corner battle). He isn’t fast and he doesn’t shoot the puck enough, and that means there’s a bit of a worry about his goal-scoring ability. Here are his (and Dube’s) NHL goals equivalencies:

Dube’s ahead of Benson by about one NHL season (70 games to 7) and that gap is probably going to get wider. It doesn’t mean Benson won’t have a career, in fact I think he’s a good bet to play 200+ NHL games. Dube is going to have a better career. Pretty sure.

I posted the complete ‘reasonable expectations’ numbers yesterday at The Athletic, there is a fabulous deal on subscriptions today so click on the link above if you’re intereseted. Anyway, Benson is going to need an injury or two this season to see the NHL. That doesn’t mean he won’t make it, but there’s a chance it’ll be 2021-22 and he might do it as a Kraken.

AHL 2-YEAR COMPS

Benson has now played two seasons in the AHL and his comparables are an interesting list.

  • Dillon Dube 50 games, 19-33-52 (1.04)
  • Tyler Benson 120 games, 24-81-105 (.88)
  • Rob Schremp 147 games, 40-89-129 (.88)
  • Logan Brown 81 games, 21-49-70 (.86)
  • Andrew Mangiapane 105 games, 41-46-87 (.83)
  • Connor Brown 110 games, 32-58-90 (.82)
  • Nikolay Goldobin 108 games, 36-49-85 (.80)
  • Marc Pouliot 98 games, 29-47-76 (.78)

There are some successful names on there, and some who did not make the NHL for any length of time. Based on his current resume, I do believe Benson will have a career that involves NHL seasons of 50 or more games. What has changed, and we should acknowledge, is that it may not be in Edmonton. Whenever there’s a change in management, there’s a distance that occurs with unproven talent. Sons become cousins, and it does change the equation. Same as it ever was.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

There is one helluva lot to discuss today on the Lowdown, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Michael Hurley, from CBS Boston, will talk NFL weekend and set us up for the Monday nighter. Jason Gregor will pop in at 11 to chat Alex Trebek, Howie Meeker, the goal on the weekend by Evan Bouchard, and word this morning of a vaccine for Covid-19 (Pfizer) that could be ready by the end of the year. Game. Changer. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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RumBurgundy

“Sons become cousins”. Fantastic.

Woogie63

Sometime we need to step back a bit.

This team is playing 3rd/4th liners as 1st and 2nd line wingers because our 97 and 29 can carry that load.

Nuge is a very good top 6 winger. However Ennis, Nygard, JJK, Kahun and now Neal are not an inspiring set of wingers. Benson has the chops to play in the top 6 until it is confirmed in the NHL that he can’t.

Before we trade away or lose another young player he needs to play 50 NHL games to know what we have, if Tyler Ennis (insert name here) is not in the line up is that a big deal?

jp

Woogie63

November 9, 2020 9:10 am

Sometime we need to step back a bit.

This team is playing 3rd/4th liners as 1st and 2nd line wingers because our 97 and 29 can carry that load.

Nuge is a very good top 6 winger. However Ennis, Nygard, JJK, Kahun and now Neal are not an inspiring set of wingers. Benson has the chops to play in the top 6 until it is confirmed in the NHL that he can’t.

Before we trade away or lose another young player he needs to play 50 NHL games to know what we have, if Tyler Ennis (insert name here) is not in the line up is that a big deal?

We can agree that these are not particularly inspiring names.

I’ll note though that Ennis and Kahun both scored as you’d expect top 6 NHL wingers to score last season without being propped up by McDavid or Draisaitl. I’m not sure you’re giving them their due.

Also, most of those players you mention ARE going to be 3rd and 4th line wingers for the Oilers this season (not 1st or 2nd line).

I see your point on Benson. I guess I’m just not in the group that sees him as having more than a very outside shot at being a top 6 player. The gap between Benson and Ennis today is pretty significant IMO.

pts2pndr

It is very difficult to compare Benson and Ennis.Benson by my limited viewing is better on the boards and in the corners and is more of a passer than shooter. Ennis is a more complete player partially due to his added experience. He is more of a shooter and not as good on the boards or in the corners. The key is which player fits the team best. Both players have value. I think that the job they are applying for is Ennis’s to lose due to the experience factor.

jp

Lowetide:

Benson indeed has talent but the equation changed on him in the offseason with the addition of names like Kahun and Ennis.

Likely before that, based on his TC last fall, his AHL season, his August camp.

Last edited 24 days ago by jp
Woodguy v2.0

@draglikepull finds that Corsi predicts future goals better than xGF% (looked at 3 models), but Natural Stat Trick’s Scoring Chance predicts future goals better than Corsi.

Interestingly all of SC% is the predicting Goals For. Corsi Against/60 (CA/60) is still better at predicting goals against than SCA/60.

Cool read:

http://hockey.greatapes.ca/index.php/2020/11/09/corsi-is-better-at-predicting-future-goals-than-expected-goals-is/

theDjdj

I do wonder if Corsi’s broader lens better allows for the inherit randomness built into hockey.

wolf8888

LT, given the serious challenges Benson has faced with regards to his training and development due to the long term injury he struggled with do you not think it is possible he could catch up this year or next if he stays healthy and improves his skating?

OriginalPouzar

I had mentioned yesterday that Rodrigues got his 3rd win in his 3rd start, a 4-2 victory.

I now see that he stopped 39 of 41 so he is 3-0 with a 1.99 GAA and a league leading .942 save percentage.

Good start to his pro career.

ArmchairGM

https://lowetide.ca/2020/11/09/stay-free/#comment-961327
Scoring pace over the past 2 seasons, per 82:

1LW Nuge: 28-45-73
2LW Kahun: 15-26-41
3LW Ennis, 19-18-37

I’m not seeing the issue here, TBH. Both Ennis and Kahun are threats to score 20+ given enough time in the top-6, which both will get.

Benson needs to push his way into the lineup, and so far he hasn’t done that. He has some time still, but the clock is ticking. Are you suggesting Tippett run Benson for 50 games when there are better options on the bench?

OriginalPouzar

There is a chance that the Kraken choose Benson in the expansion draft – predicated on:

– the Oilers moving legit d-man out between now and the expansion draft and going 7-3-1

– Benson taking a step and looking like a legit NHL 3rd liner with top 6 upside but not necessarily “popping” to require protection ahead of a Jesse or a Kahun

I think Benson will play NHL games this year and will look more comfortable than he did last year (similar to how he looked more comfortable in his second cup of coffee than his first).

pts2pndr

I believe the 7-3-1 is a given. If Jones proves able to handle the second pairing left D the three D protected will be Nurse Bear and ?? . The third D to be protected to be determined by the upcoming season.

Darth Tu

After attempting a mock Kraken expansion draft I’d agree. It’s not just a case of the Kraken going for “best player available” from each team. I tried that and ended up $86 mill – a good chunk over the cap. With the whole flat cap world in play, and being a new team that’s coming into the league when there’s likely to be no/limited fan numbers I could see the Kraken erring further on the side of caution and taking a few lower cap hit players.

Granted I have no idea who’s actually going to be available, there’s more than a few teams that don’t have enough players signed that are expansion draft eligible at the moment (Holland seems to be ahead of the curve here with the Russell extension). A proper Kraken draft can’t really happen until teams have more players committed beyond the end of this season, or have declared their actual protection lists (not just me wild ass guessing at who teams value).

Still, point is, it’s not as easy as going – who’s the best exposed player going to be? There has to be some give and take contract wise at each position. Benson could go – but so could Lagesson (if either of them plays enough games to be eligible). Maybe we throw in a pick so that Russell is the one selected.

Harpers Hair

I would think it is quite plausible that Seattle is very parsimonious with the players they elect in the expansion draft.

They could limit the financial exposure to a few key pieces, many cheap fillers for their AHL team and then go poaching UFAs from cap strapped teams that can’t re-sign them.

This offseason we’ve seen many players accepting very low short term deals and many of those will be available next year plus another bumper crop as teams are forced to re-sign their RFAs.

If you can imagine Seattle being in business this year, they could have walked away with a large number of talented players at zero acquisition cost.

For example, they would have had the cap room to sign the following players if they so chose:

Jacob Markstrom

Anton Khudobin

Alex Pietrangelo

TJ Brodie

Tyson Barrie

Taylor Hall

Tyler Toffoli

Dominik Kahun

Evgenii Dadanov

And, of course, they would have been an ideal landing spot for the players TBL are trying to move and the Kraken could extract a heavy price for helping the Lightning solve their cap space.

Stamkos anyone?

Darth Tu

Great point – and Stamkos was a guy that I took in the draft – I looked at the Lightning and figured he was going (probably also a good reason I flew over the 81.5 mill limit pretty easy.

And don’t worry, I protected Brogan (no idea if he need protection or not, but I had the option!). I selected Holtby from the Canucks.

Harpers Hair

Yeah..Holtby’s contract was specifically designed for expansion. He would be a great backup/mentor for whomever they select as a starter.

Last edited 24 days ago by Harpers Hair
Reja

Francis is not selecting a washed up Holtby.

Oilman99

Based on the current depth chart, I don’t see how Benson gets a chance at the nhl level this season unless there are a boatload of injuries.

Woogie63

my opinion – it is easy to love the Ennis, Kahun story. We have found great people who are a “diamond” in the rough. Ennis is a 31 year old undersized forward on his fifth team, Kahun is a 25 year old on his 4 team in 4 years.
I absolutely think on this team at this moment they can play a role and can play higher in the line up for a portion of the season.
The entire league values them around $1M on a one year contract.

Yeti

https://lowetide.ca/2020/11/09/stay-free/#comment-961337

With a condensed schedule, injuries are likely to be even more prevalent than normal. Benson should get his (next) chance.

Last edited 24 days ago by Yeti
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Looks like I’m not the only one who’s seen the Reply and Quote buttons disappear?

Ryan

In life, we are often faced with choosing between two imperfect choices.

Last night, there was a litany of complaints about the threaded comments.

If you turn off the comment threading, then you lose the reply button.

So we are here.

We can have no threaded comments… also no quote or reply buttons

or

We can have a reply button with threaded comments. I can decrease it to two from five, if that helps.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yes, it’s a predicament to be sure. Can’t have it all with the WP styles, as I recall. I appreciate the work you’re doing. I’m fine with either, my personal preferences aside. I’ll adapt, as I’m sure others will too.

Numenius

Thanks for your work, Ryan. If people do decide on threaded comments, I’d prefer two threads rather than five.

Ryan

So far, I like the two threads vs 5. This seems like the best compromise.

Harpers Hair

Much better this way.

defmn

No complaints here. I’ll adapt whichever way it ends up.

Sierra

Thanks for all your efforts.

I believe you are referring to my comment, and subsequent replies. If there is no way to force “threaded only” or “flat only” then we as the users should ALL try to follow this group”s discussion norm. Too often there is a threaded discussion and 3 hours later a poster chimes in using the “flat” approach, for whatever reason. I my opinion this does not facilitate the best discussion.

norm.

PokeCheck

It seems that the ‘you need to login to see the latest post’ issue is back? Pity.

OriginalPouzar

Matt Blumel assisted on both Pardubice goals in a 5-2 loss.

OriginalPouzar

As per Tiny Tommy G., a group of Oilers (and Gagner) have started voluntary skates at the arena.

Interesting that its not just the local guys like Skinner and Ennis but Nurse (who resides out east) and Drai who has come in from Europe.

Well, if the season is going to start January 1, camps will need to get started in about 5 weeks…..

Of course, I personally don’t see that happening and I think camps will start in early January after the World Juniors are complete with a late January or early Feb start.

Either way, great to see the guys out skating in the group.

Darth Tu

Did Drai get to do the 2 day quarantine in Calgary? Being an “essential worker” and all that?

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure he qualifies for the program unless he’s a “permanent resident” which I’m not sure he is….. maybe though.

leadfarmer

If the expansion draft only costs us Benson that would be huge.

godot10

The expansion draft is not going to cost us Benson. If the Oilers go 4x4x1, Yamamoto or Puljuvarvi will be available. (Unless Nuge agrees to wait for his contract). If the Oilers go 7x3x1, then Klefbom or Jones (and Lagesson and Russell) will be available (Or both, if the OIlers extend Barrie before the draft)

One has to drink some funny tasting koolaid to believe that Benson is going to be chosen.

Darth Tu

Remember there’s factors for minimum games played to be exposed as well. Lags needs to play 40 games minimum this season to be in the reckoning. Same with Benson.

Like I say above, trying to predict the expansion draft is less than easy at this time.

godot10

This is a mischaracterization.

There is no minimum games requirement for an individual player. A team has minimum games played requirements for the players it is required to make available.

Benson and Lagesson are eligible to be taken regardless of how many games they play.

Russell meets the team requirement for D that must be made available for the Oilers, and Kassian and others meet the team requirement for forwards.

The expansion team is NOT limited to the players made available to meet mandatory team requirements.

Last edited 24 days ago by godot10
Darth Tu

Ah got you – I completely misread how that works.

You have to think that Seattle take a pass on Kassian even if he is up there. His contract is likely too high for them to bite.

digger50

The AA trade is not looking like one of Hollands better trades, not by a long shot.

At the time I believed it to be reasonable, given the situation. Now the situation changed with Covid, flat cap ect and you can’t fault him for that as well.

It is good he managed to walk away.

What is not good, is that no other GM in the league would have paid two second rounders for AA. They could have him for free at half the price (likely) yet still no takers. Ouch.

wolf8888

2 different worlds, Pre and Post Covid. There is no relevance to what the demand and price is now as opposed to when the trade was made

OriginalPouzar

Dylan Holloway with an “honourable mention” for the preseason “All Big-10 Hockey Team”.

https://bigten.org/news/2020/11/9/mens-ice-hockey-big-ten-hockey-preseason-honors.aspx

I kinda wish he was staying in Wisconsin for more than a couple of games. If he makes the team, he’ll be away for almost two months.

The 5 week camp is kinda messing things up but it is what it is.

defmn

OriginalPouzar

As per Tiny Tommy G., a group of Oilers (and Gagner) have started voluntary skates at the arena.

Who is Tiny Tommy G.?

Last edited 24 days ago by defmn
OriginalPouzar

Gazzola…..

defmn

Thanks. I have never heard him called that.

OriginalPouzar

Its really just Struds (on the Gregor Show and related shows).

OriginalPouzar

One of Blumel’s assists today – a beauty cross seem pass on the PP:

https://twitter.com/czprospects/status/1325904082524049409?s=21

wolf8888

Good vision, great pass. Thanks OP. Love these updates on the boys overseas

OriginalPouzar

You are welcome!

OriginalPouzar

Woogie63

Sometime we need to step back a bit.

This team is playing 3rd/4th liners as 1st and 2nd line wingers because our 97 and 29 can carry that load.

Nuge is a very good top 6 winger. However Ennis, Nygard, JJK, Kahun and now Neal are not an inspiring set of wingers. Benson has the chops to play in the top 6 until it is confirmed in the NHL that he can’t.

Before we trade away or lose another young player he needs to play 50 NHL games to know what we have, if Tyler Ennis (insert name here) is not in the line up is that a big deal?

I agree that the current roster has two “legit top 6 wingers” in Nuge and Yamamoto. I guess the sample on Kailer isn’t quite bit enough yet but he was one of the top 5 on 5 producers in the entire league for almost 30 games – i don’t imagine his regression will be so far as to take him out of being a legit top 6 winger.

Kassian may have recent scoring rates that have him as a “top 6 winger” but I think most of us agree he’s a stretch up there and best suited for the 3rd line or bottom 6.

Khanun has the scoring rates of a top 6 winger over the last few years but I’d have to caution and “label” him a middle six winger that may prove to be a legit top 6 winger in his 3rd NHL season – I’m hopeful.

In any event, I agree with your premise but I don’t think most are wanting to move on from Benson but are mostly guarded on his top 6 upside due to some of his deficiencies.

I agree with you, I haven’t given up on his top 6 upside and I do anticipate him to get some real NHL games this year – injuries happen and he has the ability to move past the likes of Nygard on the 5 on 5 depth chart if he takes another step.

He has many skills that could very well mesh with McDavid – ability to win battles and the hockey IQ and skillset to get McDavid the puck in the right places. His one NHL assist shows that type of vision, soft hands and offensive intellect.

There is really only one other player that’s an NHL option this year that has legit top 6 upside (and that is Jesse).

I think the likes of Lavoie and Holloway clearly have top 6 winger upside but aren’t roster options this year.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide

The Oilers top skill wingers are Nuge, Yamamoto, Kahun, Ennis. Tippett is going to use veterans like Kassian, Neal, Chiasson, Nygard in those roles at times. After that, men like Jesse Puljujarvi are ‘next up’ in my opinion. After THAT comes Benson, Marody and others. PUSHING toward them is Raphael Lavoie. Benson indeed has talent but the equation changed on him in the offseason with the addition of names like Kahun and Ennis.

I agree that the Kahun signing set up a substantial block for Benson. At the same time, if Benson has a good camp and start to the AHL season, I think he’ll definitely be in the conversation for injury replacement on the left side. He’s competing with the likes of Nygard and Khaira in that regard and, while Khaira brings some PK and Nygard brings speed, Benson brings skill and upside.

With respect to Marody, he needed (needs) to have a healthy year and bounce-back – of course, one game in Europe and he’s injured, back in the states and hasn’t played since…..

Harpers Hair

If you were to honestly create a LW depth chart for the Oilers, it would look like this:

RNH
Ennis
Kahun
Neal
Khaira
Archibald
Nygaard
Benson

It would likely take a bout of the plague to get Benson on the roster.

Last edited 24 days ago by Harpers Hair
defmn

Point taken but Archibald shoots right and plays RW just to keep things accurate.

Khaira most likely plays centre or PB & Nygaard looks to be in the AHL with Benson or stays in Europe.

Not that it matters for this discussion but I think we both figure Kahun to line up with Draisaitl & Ennis with Turris.

Last edited 23 days ago by defmn
Harpers Hair

Unless Benson can penalty kill, he would be last on the list.

defmn

The point being that your list was not correct.

“Point taken” was my agreement with your conclusion while correcting your reasoning.

jp

This is *almost* like that “under 22” prospect list with 25 year olds on it for only one team.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr

I believe the 7-3-1 is a given. If Jones proves able to handle the second pairing left D the three D protected will be Nurse Bear and ?? . The third D to be protected to be determined by the upcoming season.

I agree that its likely but I think it will require the trade of one of Nurse, Bear or Klefbom (or Jones not taking a step this season).

I simply don’t see a protected spot not being used on Klefbom unless he is deemed exempt which, not out of the realm of possibility, I don’t think is likely. In addition to missing 60 games (could be pro-rated for next year) and the injury being deemed career threatening there is additional league discretion given the player MAY be deemed exempt.

I simply don’t see them exposing Klefbom unless they truly know he’ll never be back and, of course, Neither Nurse nor Bear will be exposed.

I imagine, with another step forward this season, Jones puts himself in the same category and, assuming at least one of Kahun, Puljujarvi or even Turris or Benson prove to require protection, they’ll need to go 7-3-1 and move a d-man.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

GMs talk all the time. I’ve heard/read about GMs knowing who team favourites are at the draft and messing around with teams for kicks (a story about OEL comes to mind). If Kenny gets a sense Ronnie’s not interested in Klefbom, for performance or attendance or otherwise, I imagine it would be plausible that Kenny opts to not protect Klefbom in favour of one of the younger D who project to be with the team long term — or more valuable in a trade.

Not that that’s what I would (or wouldn’t) do but it’s a plausible scenario.

Harpers Hair

It’s also naive to think that agents don’t have “informal” discussions with teams and their GMs..they do it all the time.

if, for example, Seattle was interested in Nuge, his agent would know that well ahead of time.

Some folks ignore this, insisting its tampering, but still we see UFA signings mere minutes after free agency kicks off.

Not possible if there wasn’t previous contact.

defmn

Of course agents and GM’s have these conversations all the time. They would both be incompetent if they didn’t.

wolf8888

and…?

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think its plausible that Francis wouldn’t be interested in Klefbom to the extent there is a semblance of health going in to the 2021/22 season and we are a LONG ways from Klefbom not being available for two seasons in a row. He might be at training camp – likely not but it hasn’t been ruled out as, from accounts, he’s currently rehabbing and re-evaluating closer to the season – hence the “delay”.

pts2pndr

Nurse and Bear are safe in my opinion. Nurse gets a bad rap that in my opinion is unwarranted. I believe that Nurse will continue to get to be more complete over the next few years. Nurse’s natural talent has been both a blessing and a curse. With more experience he will learn to rely more on his hockey IQ and less on his high end talent to get the job done. He is currently the most complete D on the team. Jones to this point does most things well but has no one special talent. It is my belief that Klefbom will be left unprotected and it will be interesting to see who the third protected D will be.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t imagine a Klefbom that is ready to play for 2021/22 being left unprotected.

wolf8888

That’s the big question though, right? No one knows at this point, likely not even Klef has any idea yet.

wolf8888

Do you really think that if Klefbom is out all season and the Kraken have no idea if he”ll ever play again that they would select him? Seems illogical to me

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99

 November 9, 2020 11:47 am

Based on the current depth chart, I don’t see how Benson gets a chance at the nhl level this season unless there are a boatload of injuries.

There are often a boat-load of injuries though. With that said, even one injury may be enough depending on how Benson is playing in, presumably, the AHL. I mean, if Tyler Ennis is playing 3LW and gets hurt, Benson could be a great fill-in there – he’s competing with the likes of Nygard and Khaira (and I guess James Neal).

Harpers Hair

He’s 8th on the LW depth chart.
Not a chance.

OriginalPouzar

He very well could be the first injury call-up for a LW despite your chosen depth chart.

wolf8888

Your depth chart

OriginalPouzar

godot10

The expansion draft is not going to cost us Benson. If the Oilers go 4x4x1, Yamamoto or Puljuvarvi will be available. (Unless Nuge agrees to wait for his contract). If the Oilers go 7x3x1, then Klefbom or Jones (and Lagesson and Russell) will be available (Or both, if the OIlers extend Barrie before the draft)

One has to drink some funny tasting koolaid to believe that Benson is going to be chosen.

The 7-3-1 scenario, for me, has one of Nurse, Klefbom or Jones traded (for value) and I can’t imagine Holland making a Barrie re-sign official prior the expansion draft – he’s smarter than that.

He may re-sign one or both of Larsson and Barrie but I can’t imagine it happening prior to the expansion draft – they are not Nuge type re-signings.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

A handshake deal being okay with one of the RHD and not Nuge is a position that is logically at odds with itself.

If Kenny can negotiate in good faith with one or more players but not another, then one is assuming the GM is the trustworthy party and the forward is the outlier.

I know you believe in Nuge’s character from your many posts over the years. But not being able to have a handshake deal with respect to the expansion draft is…daft.

I guess what I’m saying here is that it appears your strategy and tactics are in opposition to one another.

Harpers Hair

Of course all of Nuge, Barrie and Larsson would be UFAs at that point and Seattle could pick them up for free while outbidding the Oilers.

You can run…but you can’t hide.

defmn

You, of course, ignore the fact that not all decisions come down to ‘outbidding’ or that not everybody wants to play for an expansion team or even to move. Seattle cannot “pick them up”. The two parties each have an equal say when it comes to UFA’s.

It may not be an example that makes Oilers’ fan happy to recall but Montreal outbid Edmonton for Lucic according to Lucic.

But he had given his word to Chiarelli and he felt as a man of honour that he should keep it.

I’m not sure why you always choose the simplistic explanation rather than offer nuance.

Try harder.

Harpers Hair

I fully understand that player preference is the major factor in these decisions but often the team can’t or won’t match a better offer in the cap world.

The most recent example is Markstrom who said repeatedly he wanted to stay in Vancouver but the team wouldn’t commit to the compensation or term he was looking for.

Seattle is an unique historical position in that the Covid drag on salaries for UFAs allows them to set the market.

You can bet their leading edge analytics team is already identifying the opportunities.

defmn

What the team wants will be one thing and it could go that way but as I said the player has an equal say and Holland has a lot of experience. I am pretty confident that Nuge wants to stay there is a way to make that happen.

Now we will probably read about the extension tomorrow.

teamblue

If they do the same as they did for the LV x-draft, the x-draft was the 22nd if I recall, and the courting period was the 25th. Without the courting period, that’s even longer between the x-draft and free agency. If the Kraken don’t take the chance of taking an UFA, like Nuge, the Oilers can re-sign him before the Kraken even have a chance to give him an offer. They could have the x-draft, and Nuge re-signs the next day. Or, the Kraken could take the chance of taking an UFA like Nuge, and lose him once free agency opens if he doesn’t want to sign there.

OriginalPouzar

Darth Tu

Remember there’s factors for minimum games played to be exposed as well. Lags needs to play 40 games minimum this season to be in the reckoning. Same with Benson.

Like I say above, trying to predict the expansion draft is less than easy at this time.

With respect, this is not true and a GIANT misconception.

People are equating (1) the minimum exposure requirement with (2) exposure itself.

Lagesson, Benson, Puljujarvi, Russell, etc. – if not protected they will all be available to be selected by the Kraken even if they play zero games this year.

Any player that is not exempt (i.e. has played more than two years of pro) is available to the Kraken if not protected – the games played threshold is a non-factor.

The games played threshold only relates to minimum exposure requirement where each team has to expose at least one d-man that’s played 40 games the previous season or 70 over the last two.

That’s why Russell was re-signed, in order to ensure that they have one d-man that meets this requirement.

That doesn’t mean that Lagesson, for example, isn’t available to the Kraken is he doesn’t play the games.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey

A handshake deal being okay with one of the RHD and not Nuge is a position that is logically at odds with itself.

If Kenny can negotiate in good faith with one or more players but not another, then one is assuming the GM is the trustworthy party and the forward is the outlier.

I know you believe in Nuge’s character from your many posts over the years. But not being able to have a handshake deal with respect to the expansion draft is…daft.

I guess what I’m saying here is that it appears your strategy and tactics are in opposition to one another.

I see a myriad of differences between a potential Nuge re-sign and a Tyson Barrie re-sign.

First and foremost, Nuge is a core piece of the team, a glue guy (in my opinion) and a player that Holland has already determined is a re-sign priority for a long term deal.

Tyson Barrie is a recently acquired player that is coming off an “uneven” season and looking to re-establish his value. He hasn’t played a game for the Oilers and, at this point, we (Holland) don’t even know if we want to re-sign.

Nugent-Hopkins can be re-signed tomorrow – a long term deal for a core player well in advance of his contract expiring is common.

Tyson Barrie can’t even be re-signed until, well, we don’t know when – normally its January 1 for one-year deals so I would anticipate sometime in April or so – the off-season will be short and the expansion draft fast-tracked shortly after the season ends I’m sure.

Nuge is player Holland knows he wants locked up for term. Barrie and his future with the Oilers is something unknown at this point.

Yup, I have different standards in respect of the negotiations and re-signings of these two players.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

It’s also naive to think that agents don’t have “informal” discussions with teams and their GMs..they do it all the time.

if, for example, Seattle was interested in Nuge, his agent would know that well ahead of time.

Some folks ignore this, insisting its tampering, but still we see UFA signings mere minutes after free agency kicks off.

Not possible if there wasn’t previous contact.

l don’t doubt that these discussions do happen but don’t believe they are quite as rampant or obvious as posited.

Yup, over the last number of years we saw many signing right after free agency opened – of course, there was the “talking period” allowing for discussions ahead of time (although I believe they weren’t supposed to talk contract details).

As we saw this year, without the courting period, there were very few deals signed right away and there were a few days where the higher end free agents were going around meeting with teams.

Seattle may be interested in Nuge but that will be a non-issue if he’s signed months in advance (which seems to be something both the player and the Oilers organization covet).

Harpers Hair

This is all nonsense.

For decades…free agent deals came fast and furious in the first few minutes of free agent frenzy.

As for Nuge…why hasn’t the dog barked?

OriginalPouzar

Why hasn’t the dog barked on the extensions of Hughes and Petterson?

It is heartening to know that the the last two times you balked at an Oilers’ property player signing with the org, they signed within a few hours….

Your opinions on players signing with the Oilers have repeatedly been wrong, even when you post them as fact.

Harpers Hair

Hughes and Pettersson are RFAs without arbitration rights.

Nuge will be a UFA in 6 months.

Oilers signing cannon fodder is great for them but not so good for the players who are buried on the depth chart.

I guess hope springs eternal.

wolf8888

Not for you it seems. Is there any hope that you can participate in a rational discussion?

jp

Likewise all the significant players who wanted to stay in Vancouver but ultimately walked.

jp

Harpers Hair

 Reply to  OriginalPouzar

 November 9, 2020 9:43 pm

For decades…free agent deals came fast and furious in the first few minutes of free agent frenzy. 

As for Nuge…why hasn’t the dog barked?

This is all nonsense.

I think there was a glitch when you originally posted this.