Three Hour Drive

by Lowetide
Linus Omark photo by Rob Ferguson

On March 4, 2012, the Edmonton Oilers owned a record of 25-33-6, sat in last place and were playing out the string.

On this blog that morning, I wrote “The Edmonton Oilers often talk about “3 scoring lines” but they clearly have no plans to follow through. The Oilers selection process under Tom Renney suggests they think of a 3rd scoring line the way the rest of us think about funeral pre-planning or booking passage to a Turkish prison. It is not, despite miles of verbal that’s been written, a priority for the organization. The Oilers are old school. They voted against the designated hitter, remember the 80s Oilers as the “team Dave Hunter put over the top” and secretly despise the forward pass.”

I think Dave Tippett and Ken Holland are headed in that direction.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

REMEMBRANCE DAY

I would like to thank our Canadian military past and present for the great sacrifices made on our behalf. My family enjoys great freedom and opportunity because of you and the brave men and women of our military.

All families have stories similar to my uncle Roy Babcook who died at age 27. That’s about my son’s age. What a tremendous loss, both World Wars and everything after.

Today is the one day we set aside time to honour, remember and reflect. If you are or have been military, God bless you and your families. You are the best of us.

FIVE ON FIVE PTS-60

Three scoring lines means nine forwards who can score enough to move the needle offensively. A player who can consistently deliver offense at five on five is a blessing. Here are the scoring totals for Edmonton’s prominent forwards over the last three seasons.

  1. Connor McDavid 75-110-185 in 3761:47 minutes (2.95)
  2. Leon Draisaitl 63-95-158 in 3668:30 minutes (2.58)
  3. Dominik Kahun 21-39-60 in 1707:09 minutes (2.11)
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 41-55-96 in 2933:41 minutes (1.96)
  5. Kailer Yamamoto 8-16-24 in 734:39 minutes (1.96)
  6. Tyler Ennis 27-31-58 in 2101:36 minutes (1.66)
  7. Zack Kassian 34-37-71 in 2662:09 minutes (1.60)
  8. James Neal 27-26-53 in 2479:52 minutes (1.28)
  9. Kyle Turris 18-43-51 in 2448:45 minutes (1.25)
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 14-17-31 in 1627:12 minutes (1.14)

In 2019-20, 372 forwards played 385 or more minutes. Using that as our pool of talent, the players and their numbers break down like this:

  • First Line (1.99 to 3.43): McDavid, Draisaitl, Kahun
  • Second Line (1.62 to 1.98): Nuge, Yamamoto, Ennis
  • Third Line (1.26 to 1.61): Kassian, Neal
  • Fourth Line (0.34 to 1.25): Turris, Puljujarvi

The next substantial offensive addition through the system (among forwards) will be Raphael Lavoie, and we’ll see about Dylan Holloway. Some will mention Kirill Maksimov as an option, but for me both Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie are more promising prospects while also being a little farther away from NHL-ready. If there’s a hidden gem in the system, now would be the time to bust a move.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on TSN1260 with the Lowdown. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to talk about Howie Meeker and Joe Benoit, two veterans who had fascinating lives. Joe Osborne will pop by at 11 from OddsShark and discuss betting units on inconsistent NFL teams and the possible effect of Covid-19 on results.

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digger50

Very well presented Lt.

In my opinion, Holland prematurely jammed up the roster with fourth liners again, instead of waiting to see what would be available. Although he can technically add better players and bump others off the roster, he won’t. You don’t just give away millions of dollars.

Thank goodness he landed Kahun, Im over the moon on that acquisition.

digger50

Now that I think about it, Im half expecting to hear news that Kassian is hurt. This is based on nothing substantial. If that was to occur, rather than bumping up the line up (we have enough wingers) I could see another addition of a player in the 1.6 – 1.8 pp60 range.

Almost forgot

Bag pipes here will be on at 11am, following 2 minutes of silence. Always brings a tear.

jp

Which of Holland’s adds this off season (Kahun, Ennis, Turris, Puljujarvi) are 4th liners though? I don’t see any myself.

McNulty

I feel exactly the same way about Kahun, and hope that this time I’m right about a German.

This signing feels eerily similar to the Reider signing to me. The team is a little more complete now and so it feels like less is riding on this signing, but I thought Reider was possibly the single best value signing the team had made in a decade or more and was an absolute steal and then Tobias promptly proceeded to go an entire season without scoring a goal.

I was also wrong with Leon. I never doubted him, per se, and even in 14/15 when he had that rough stretch that went on too long before being sent down I told my friends he’d be a solid NHL player. But I kept repeating the “solid NHL player” refrain for far too long. He kept getting better, and I kept expecting him to come back down to earth, to maybe a solid top six, fringe all-star level. Never been more glad to have been wrong about a player’s ceiling.

So 0/2 on my German scouting. Hoping I can say I’m 1/3 at the end of this year.

Harpers Hair

Ranking the NHL management teams.
Spoiler alert…Sakic wins in a walk.

2020 NHL front office confidence rankings: Fans weigh in on every team 
https://theathletic.com/2172112/2020/11/11/nhl-front-office-rankings-fans-2020/?source=user_shared_article

defmn

And yet it couldn’t be more than 2-3 years ago everybody was laughing at Sakic and speculating on when he would be fired.

It’s precarious work.

hungoverman

I thought HH is a Canuck’s fan? I have only had a few Bailey’s and coffee’s this morning so I may be confused.

OriginalPouzar

Vasili Podkolzin came back to the KHL from the tournament and was healthy scratched by St. Petersburg.

Brantford Boy

Lest We Forget

For anyone interested or unaware, this is an unbelievable story of a Canadian Soldier named Leo Major:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLk4F1thAp0

Or if you like to read:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9o_Major

godot10

Our societies are really no longer free. As nations, we have failed to preserve and improve upon what was earned by the sacrifices of previous generations. Things fall apart slowly, then all-at-once. The hollow men slouch towards Bethlehem.

Harpers Hair
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Love me some Gad Saad 🤙 There truly are ostriches everywhere!

defmn

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

dustrock

I think it is consistent throughout human history that entropy is hard to overcome, and progress in no wise has to be continual and in a straight line, ever-reaching for that rainbow. The last few years have been a good reminder of that.

I’ll continue to wait for the United Federation of Planets, until then, the beatings will continue until morale improves.

defmn

The disagreements, of course, are over what constitutes progress. 😉

dustrock

Oh I was talking about the Oilers, what were you talking about? 😀

defmn

The morale & the beatings?

Shane

Unfortunately I don’t think the UFP will be taking us in until we figure our shit out down here first..

defmn

So, like, never?

Shane

Ha! Yea pretty much, unless we find huge reserves of Beskar ore on one of Jupiter’s moons and become a galactic financial superpower..

OriginalPouzar

The Kahun signing seems to have served to balance that top 9 with nine players that can score at top 9 levels and many of them at top 6 levels.

I think Turris and Jesse should be able to score at higher than the rates listed because (a) Turris is a better offensive player than his recent regression and (b) Puljujuarvi is now 22 and healthy and not with shattered confidence and Hitchcock/McLellan

Is there any recover for James Neal at 5 on 5? I think most of us (including myself) have him on the 4th line – perhaps with Khaira/Haas and Chiasson but is there any chance he fills in on McDavid’s right wing? I know that is likely unpopular, and I’m not even sure I agree with it or am suggesting it, however, he did play very well in the play-in and I think a healthy and not tired James Neal is a better player. Don’t see it.

I look forward to adding Holloway, and maybe even Lavoie, to that top 6 over the next 2-3 years.

Harpers Hair

Adding Holloway who might help in 2-3 years is in stark contrast to what Joe Sakic has done this offseason.

Rather than wait on a prospect, he turned an excess of defensemen into Brandon Saad who will help right now.

He then turned around and plucked Devon Toews from the cap strapped Islanders so upgraded his D and top 6 in one fell swoop.

Thats a prime example of how a savvy GM builds around his superstar core. And he still has his first round picks.

wolf8888

As usual, not a relevant response. Sakic is a good GM. Holloway has a bright future and could be a great add to the Oilers. Those 2 things are not in competition

Scungilli Slushy

Joe has been really good.

He didn’t have to follow what Holland did, we’ll see how he goes when his cap space is gone in a bit.

The screaming deals are pretty hard to pull off when your good players have taken all the cap up.

And you’ve Sathered enough GMs that they become cautious when you call.

Harpers Hair

He’s in a position that he can “help” other teams with their problems.
He’s playing chess.

jp

Sakic’s cap space is gone now. He of course also has a very strong and very deep team, but the cap was leveraged to get there.

OriginalPouzar

We are talking about the Oilers and their projected top 9.

What the fuck does Joe Sakic and the Devon Toews have to do with anything?

Harpers Hair

Listen…I know you always try and control the narrative in your Pollyanna fashion.

What Sakic accomplished in adding a top six forward by moving a surplus D stands in stark contrast to Holland adding Kahun who is NOT an established top six forward and is a much inferior player to Saad.

That Sakic was able to get Chicago to retain $1 million gives Sakic that superior player at an effective cap hit of $2.8 allowing him to also acquire a better D than Zadorov….brilliant work.

In contrast Holland added an unproven winger who has never scored 15 goals while hanging on to a raft of middling defensemen many of whom have to no clear path to an NHL job.

Since this thread was already discussing Sakic being the most highly regarded GM in the league based on fan and non-fan votes with Holland languishing in the mushy middle, it’s absolutely fair play
to contrast the work of the two GMs.

That you demand everyone adhere to your narrow parameters is an affront to free discussion and a rather sad attempt at enforcing conformity which was also earlier discussed in this thread.

You, of course, always have the option of not reading or responding to any opinions that don’t stroke you in the right way…as have we all.

OriginalPouzar

The substance of the blog post was the Oilers and their top 9 scoring.

I made a post about the Oilers and their top 9 scoring.

You responded on some tangent about Sakic and what he has done – nothing to do with the substance LT provided us or the post you were responding to.

Feel free to discuss Sakic’s heroics all you want but your post but do not try an interlude your preferred conversation in to one that has absolutely zero to do with it.

If you are going to respond to a post, it would seem logical that the response is somewhat relevant but, nope, that’s not you I guess.

jp

Good Lord HH.

Kahun had 31 points this year to Saad’s 33.
Over the past 2 seasons Kahun scored 70 points vs. 80 for Saad.
Saad had 35 in a full slate the year previous.

Saad costs basically $4M more than Zadarov did last year, so the retained gets you down to $3M in difference on what what Sakic was spending for that roster spot last year. Sakic paid cap to add Saad.

Sakic also got Toews on a cap dump and is paying him $4.1M per. More cap.

Tyler Ennis outscored all of them (37 points) and Turris was *just* behind the other forwards with 31 points this year.

Holland signed all 3 Oiler forwards for about $3.6M while Sakic is spending more than $9M on 2 quality players. Sakic’s moves were quality but they used up all that excess cap he had (currently $1.8M left and 3 players shy of a full roster). Holland’s moves were also quality.

Harpers Hair

Saad is effectively costing Colorado $2.8 million.
$5 million in $3.2 million out.

I’ll take a consistent 20-30 goal scorer at that price point all day long.

Sakic is paying an established two way second pairing D with offensive upside $4.1 million and you have a problem with that?
can you imagine his offensive numbers playing on the high octane Colorado team?

You get what you pay for.

defmn

I thought finding value contracts was the holy grail in a capped league.

Getting ‘what you pay’ for sounds more like a mediocre result, no?

Sakic did a nice job this off season but you have to totally ignore the starting point of the two rosters in order to compare his season with Holland’s moves.

Sakic took years to maneuver his team to this point in time. Holland is still clearing up his predecessor’s mistakes.

OriginalPouzar

Devon Toews is a nice player and a good add by Sakic for sure – the verbal I just about him is a bit aggressive – established as a legit 2nd pairing d-man for just one year where he was fourth on his team in 5 on 5 TOI/G and didn’t kill penalties a lick.

Lots of on the fly starts, lots of offensive zone starts (slightly more than defensive), etc.

jp

The only time Saad scores more than 24 goals was 15-16.

You started out with the ‘stark contrast’ but Sakic paid $9M for what he added. Holland paid far less for some pretty quality players.

I said Sakic did well, Holland also did while paying less for it.

wolf8888

Funny math. 5 million in, 3.2 million out leaves 2.8? Sakic may be a genius but somebody is not a mathematical genius

Side

You’ve really increased the number of angry, unrelated posts lately.

Everything okay at home?

jp

I think it’s possible (though not particularly likely) we see Neal get time with McDavid.

There are too many bodies, but a more likely scenario for Neal playing higher than 4th line is he and Chiasson flanking Turris on the 3rd line. Neal did play well down the stretch and in the play-in, and he and Chiasson were good with a bunch of different Cs through the year.

Too many bodies, as I said, but Tippett will sure have options to fill out his lineup card.

theDjdj

I think Neal was a standout in the RTP. The injuries he played through aren’t considered enough in his decline in scoring. He’s losing a step for sure but I think he has enough skill and grit to score another 15

jp

I don’t think there’s any question he could score 15 if he can move up the lineup a little.

Actually it’s entirely possible he could from the 4th line as long as he holds onto a PP1 spot.

Reja

Bring back Kenny linseman I sure miss that player.

OriginalPouzar

SP mentioned Lavoie’s cut not being that serious – he’s got himself a first period goal a Vasby is up 1-0. Puljujuarvi with a first period assist as Karpat is up 2-0 in the 3rd.

SwedishPoster

And added a second goal late in the second with a PP marker. Smart shot recognizing the screen and placing the shot, which he’s done on a lot of his goals, just above the goalie’s pad. His shot placement is pure quality.
The comments from Modo fans watching the game are pretty much in agreement that it’s Modo vs Lavoie tonight. Sounds like he’s having himself a game, shame I don’t have time to watch it, highlights will have to do.

SwedishPoster
defmn

Thanks for all these SP. Any talk about his overall game?

SwedishPoster

In this game all I heard was how scary he was every time he hit the ice, this was the league’s two bottom teams facing off with the major difference that Modo was expected to be a top team while consensus was very strong that Väsby would finish last. Their budget is clearly at the bottom of the league so everyone, including themselves, knew they’d be in a tough spot. So this was a a crucial game for Modo, they had to win, and after two periods the sense was “we’re much better but this Lavoie kid might kill us”. As far as his defensive game I didn’t hear much, tough to play perfect defense on a struggling team as their only consistent offensive threat but from what I’ve heard before they like his effort at least. He played over 21 minutes tonight so the coach clearly feels he can use him a lot. He was -1 with one GA an empty netter.

Jeremias Lindewall was the 13th fwd tonight so only played about five minutes and didn’t make much of a mark. Will probably have a tough time getting ice the next few weeks since the team has picked up a couple of forwards lately. The U20 league was put on hold today until january due to the increase in covid cases so he’s probably looking forward to a period with lots of practice and maybe a handful of shifts per game with the men’s team.

As a side note Frank Corrado, who got some NHL games a few years ago for Canucks, Leafs and Pens, plays for Modo.

Bouchard had two primary helpers when his team won 9-1 tonight.

defmn

Thanks. Much appreciated.

jp

LT: Kyle Turris 18-43-51 in 2448:45 minutes (1.25)

I checked this because I was shocked.

Turris is actually 1.50/60 over the past 3 seasons, no? And 1.70, 1.10, 1.64 by season.
(https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=NSH&pos=F&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL)

I feel like ‘3 scoring lines’ finally actually materializing this season is plausible, if not probable. Especially considering Kassian has been up over 2.0/60 since he started playing with McDavid.

Archibald is 1.28/60 over the 3 years too for whatever that’s worth.

ArmchairGM

Yup, LT made a typo and then calculated from the incorrect sum. 18+43=61, not 51. That makes Turris’ P/60 1.4946, which is right in the heart of “3rd line”.

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie’s goal today – not a snipe but a lumber towards the net…

https://twitter.com/antonj85/status/1326587206711070720

defmn

It’s good to have more than one trick.

defmn

A lot of questions on here the past few weeks about LTIR etc. and what it means for the OIlers. I’m not sure Gregor has it exactly right in his conclusions but he does walk through the steps so that how it is done is clarified.

Scroll about half way down after the pizza eating contest details. 😉

https://oilersnation.com/2020/11/11/best-pizza-and-lti-oscar-klefbom-before-the-season/

jp

I’m certainly not an authority on this, but I still believe the Oilers can:
-sign Bear prior to the start of the season
-assign/waive 1-3 players to get compliant for opening day (with a 20-22 player roster)
-then place Klefbom on LTIR and have a salary cap of (effectively) about $84.5M for the season

I guess we’ll see.
I’m certainly not an authority on this, but I still believe the Oilers can:
-sign Bear prior to the start of the season
-assign/waive 1-3 players to get compliant for opening day (with a 20-22 player roster)
-then place Klefbom on in-season LTIR and have a salary cap of (effectively) $84.5M for the year

I guess we’ll see.

Last edited 16 days ago by jp
defmn

That’s what I think as well. If they send down Neal and Chiasson they pick up $2,050,000 in cap space I believe. If either of them is claimed, well, then you lose them but I think that is unlikely in a year when there are so many options still available.

Yamo can also have a day trip to California.

Then Holland just has to get Bear signed for the cap space those moves allow.

Last edited 16 days ago by defmn
ArmchairGM

The max they can bury is $1.075M per contract, so waiving Neal and Chiasson would save $2,150,000 cap.

defmn

Right. Thanks. Old memory fails me again.

Shane

Just want to thank SP and OP for the daily prospect updates!

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie ended up scoring both goals for Vasby in their 5-2 loss and Bouchard with a couple of assists in a 9-1 win….

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie’s second goal, a more standard snipe from the off-wing:

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1326624422728327168

theDjdj

Good use of screen here. Absolute snipe. His shoot first mentality is a desperate skill shortage on the team. Do we think this level of competition is below Lavoie?

ArmchairGM

https://theathletic.com/2166869/2020/11/06/nhl-teams-contract-efficiency-grade-2020/

Not sure what the thoughts are around here about Dom’s model, but at least one Oilers fan takes him to task for his findings. Search “David H.” for an interesting read.

Reja

The 465 pound Gorilla is off of Turris shoulders he’s on very friendly contract but he’s still making some fine cash. With him and Dave knowing each other I’m excited to see Turris playing loose on a bonifide 3rd line in the near future great signing by Holland.

Georgexs

For forwards, Pts/GP is a better predictor of future 5v5 P60 than 5v5 P60 itself.

Looking at forwards who played 200+ 5v5 minutes in two consecutive seasons, here’s the correlation between 5v5 P60 in season 1 and Pts/GP in season 1 with 5v5 P60 in season 2.

Season, 5v5 P60, Pts/GP

07-08, .49, .59
08-09, .54, .61
09-10, .53, .61
10-11, .54, .60
11-12, .54, .56
12-13, .48, .61
13-14, .52, .57
14-15, .50, .59
15-16, .49, .54
16-17, .44, .57
17-18, .51, .61
18-19, .51, .58

Last off-season, LT, we listed forwards we thought would “spike” on 5v5 P60 in 19-20. I, unfortunately, got my wires crossed on what you were after. You decided you weren’t interested in proceeding any further. (With a “haha” to boot!)

I went back to check. The results are a mixed bag, some hits, more misses for both of us. Both of us hit on less than 50% of our picks to break the 1.5 mark. Boo.

I thought we were predicting “spiking” on 5v5 P60 but I think you were more interested in finding forwards who would break the 1.5 mark after failing to do so in the prior season.

It turns out there’s a simple heuristic you can use to identify such forwards. If the forward plays 200+ 5v5 minutes in a season and posts 0.5 Pts/GP or better but fails to hit the 1.5 P60 mark, he’s a good bet to do so next year. From 07-08 to 18-19, there have been 229 forwards satisfying the initial condition. 144 of them (63%) broke 1.5 P60 in the following season. I found only 2 out of 12 seasons in which the accuracy of the predictions dropped below 50%. The worst it did was in 13-14, where it went 6 for 15. That blows my effort from last season to bits.

Here’s who the rule picks to break 1.5 P60 for next season:

Player, 19/20 Pts/GP, 19/20 5v5 P60

Kane, .73, 1.36
Krejci, .70, 1.34
Pageau, .63, 1.39
Nyquist, .60, 1.43
Suzuki, .58, 1.44
Radulov, .57, 1.35
Benn, .57, 1.37
Neal, .56, .94
Hintz, .55, 1.29
Kessel, .54, 1.12
Zadina, .54, 1.41
Stastny, .54, 1.44
Armia, .52, 1.43

The math clearly shows that Pts/GP for forwards is a better metric than 5v5 P60 for predicting future 5v5 P60. You might think that 5v5 is the fairest game condition to evaluate forwards and it’s a good idea to exclude non 5v5 game states. But it turns out that those non-5v5 minutes give useful information on how forwards will perform next season at 5v5. It might seem counterintuitive, especially for someone who’s “sold” on 5v5 P60. But if you think about it a bit, you can see why. It’s cool, actually.

OriginalPouzar

digger50

 November 11, 2020 8:55 am

Very well presented Lt.

In my opinion, Holland prematurely jammed up the roster with fourth liners again, instead of waiting to see what would be available. Although he can technically add better players and bump others off the roster, he won’t. You don’t just give away millions of dollars.

Thank goodness he landed Kahun, Im over the moon on that acquisition.

With the current roster, in addition to P. Russell, there will need to be one other forward re-assigned for the full 23 man roster – I anticipate that to be Nygard right now.

That really leaves Haas, Khaira, Neal, Chiasson, Archie fight for the 4th line positions nightly. I guess Neal could play higher (maybe even 1RW if he’s skating well and fresh) but, generally, I think that’s the fight for the bottom lineup spot nightly. Maybe Ennis or Jesse or Kass get thrown in that battle if they struggle.

I am quite comfortable with that competition for the bottom for the roster and I don’t see how the re-signings of guys like Haas, Nygard, P. Russell provides a jam I don’t think that the likes of Duclair or Haula are signing for that type of price and Holland made the adequate and cheaper acquisitions instead (Kahun instead of Duclair and Turris instead of Haula, for example).

I guess the likes of AA are precluded from signing due to the jam but I don’t want AA competing for those spots anyways.

OriginalPouzar

jp

I think it’s possible (though not particularly likely) we see Neal get time with McDavid.

There are too many bodies, but a more likely scenario for Neal playing higher than 4th line is he and Chiasson flanking Turris on the 3rd line. Neal did play well down the stretch and in the play-in, and he and Chiasson were good with a bunch of different Cs through the year.

Too many bodies, as I said, but Tippett will sure have options to fill out his lineup card.

I know that Neal and Chiasson were good as a pair along with Khaira but I gather from your post that they were good with other centers as well?

The only issue I have with that pair is how the heck does one get Archie in the lineup when they are together?

Unless he starts to struggle or regresses, I think Archie is in the lineup nightly – he add speed and tenacity.

Then again, with his style of play, he does get beat up – another potential for some load management.

Ryan

Georgexs

The math clearly shows that Pts/GP for forwards is a better metric than 5v5 P60 for predicting future 5v5 P60. You might think that 5v5 is the fairest game condition to evaluate forwards and it’s a good idea to exclude non 5v5 game states. But it turns out that those non-5v5 minutes give useful information on how forwards will perform next season at 5v5. It might seem counterintuitive, especially for someone who’s “sold” on 5v5 P60. But if you think about it a bit, you can see why. It’s cool, actually.

As I said previously, points/game subsumes TOI/game data which is probably the single largest reason for it being more predictive.

The context for this discussion was originally prompted by discussions surrounding Alex Chiasson.

Unfortunately for him, his 0.5 points per game season did not portend any future success at either 5v5 or pts/game.

Georgexs

Yikes. Bit of not seeing the forest for the trees here.

That 2-year contract still irks, hey?

I think Chiasson was a top-9 forward by his points total and points per game last year. Is that not success for a $2.15M forward? Did we not get our money’s worth with Chiasson last year?

defmn

I think we did.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, he probably provided value for that $2.1M or very close to. With that said, the main issue at the time of signing was the 2nd year and many thought there wasn’t a need to give the player any term.

$2.1M could buy more on the open market this off-season

defmn

I think, though, you could say that for every player in the league previously signed in that $2M range.

Everything changed this off season.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree but, even though the circumstances changes, the 2nd year of Chiasson’s contract was generally seen as the likely issue with the contract at the time of signing.

Even if the market didn’t change, given Jesse coming back, Yamamoto’s development, etc., well, as much as Chiasson was value last year and still could be, the money could likely best be used elsewhere.

OriginalPouzar

theDjdj

Good use of screen here. Absolute snipe. His shoot first mentality is a desperate skill shortage on the team. Do we think this level of competition is below Lavoie?

SwedishPoster would be better suited to answer that question but, possibly would be my answer.

Its below Bouchard and Lagesson but those are NHL players playing in the second tier league in Sweden.

Lavoie is a rookie pro – he’s likely best served in the AHL.

I’m not sure being the best offensive player on just an awful team, in the 2nd tier Swedish league is the best place for him to develop his game for the NHL. He needs to work on things like his shift to shift consistency and, of course, like most rookie pros, defensive awareness, etc.

OriginalPouzar

 Reply to  jp

 November 11, 2020 4:03 pm

I think Neal was a standout in the RTP. The injuries he played through aren’t considered enough in his decline in scoring. He’s losing a step for sure but I think he has enough skill and grit to score another 15

I’m sure exactly when he injured the foot and toe but he did have three 5 on 5 goals in October (in addition to his PP heater) – tied with McDavid for second behind Leon’s 9 and second on the team with 0.99G/60.

Perhaps there is something with a healthy Neal still able to score at 5 on 5?

I don’t think we’ll see him up the lineup that early but, if one injury hits or Kassian doesn’t recover early…..

leadfarmer

I do think this would be a good season to try multi game series against one opponent like MLB
go to Vancouver play 3 games come home play 3 games vs Calgary and such
i always wondered why the NHL insists on having such a very painful travel schedule of a different team every game

Sierra

I wonder if it has anything to do with how violent playoff games were “back in the day?”

OriginalPouzar

jp

I’m certainly not an authority on this, but I still believe the Oilers can:

-sign Bear prior to the start of the season

-assign/waive 1-3 players to get compliant for opening day (with a 20-22 player roster)

-then place Klefbom on LTIR and have a salary cap of (effectively) about $84.5M for the season

I guess we’ll see.

I’m certainly not an authority on this, but I still believe the Oilers can:

-sign Bear prior to the start of the season

-assign/waive 1-3 players to get compliant for opening day (with a 20-22 player roster)

-then place Klefbom on in-season LTIR and have a salary cap of (effectively) $84.5M for the year

I guess we’ll see.

We’ve been on the same page on this.

I was talking with Gregor and he mentioned an important nuance which I didn’t appreciate (if correct). If a player with performance bonuses is not on the roster to start the season, when they get added to the roster, their performance bonuses actually hit the cap.

For example, if Yamamoto is assigned for cap compliance reasons, when he’s recalled, his cap hit isn’t $894K, but add the, I believe, $250K in performance bonuses.

Same would apply when Bouchard is added to the roster (and his performance bonuses are more material).

If Jason is right on this, if they did want to make paper transactions on day one to get compliant prior to placing Klef on LTIR, it may make sense to not assign the players with bonuses – of course, that’s the easy guys that don’t need waivers (Bouch and Yama).

They could probably get cap compliant by sliding a few bloated contracts through waivers (Neal, Chiasson, etc.) but, as Jason mentions, Holland may not do that to a veteran – I know its just paper but its an ego and visual thing.

jp

Thanks for mentioning the bonus thing. I guess Gregor covered that in the article but i kinda glossed over the last part. Definitely don’t want to assign those guys if you don’t have to (though to access the LTIR it would be a small price to pay).

And yes, possible Holland would hesitate to waive Neal or Chiasson (though I think he would if it helped the team).

Depending what Bear signs for they may not even need to make any moves at all to get compliant. They have $242k today with 23 on the Capfriendly roster (15 F).

If Bear signs for $1M and they assign any forward (Nygard is most likely and makes the least) they’re compliant, barely. I imagine Kenny is grinding that 1 year bridge.

OriginalPouzar

Issue there is that the roster doesn’t include Lagesson either – no Lagesson or Bear.

jp

Well Bear isn’t signed so he’s not included on Capfriendly. I’m using their listed roster as a starting point that everyone (hopefully) can agree on (their roster currently shows 15F and 6 D, no Lagesson or Bear, and $242k in cap space).

My above post signs Bear and assigns a forward (assumed Nygard). So that’s 14F and 7D (including Klefbom before he hits LTIR). If Bear signs for $1M or less then waiving/assigning any forward to get to 14F gets the team cap compliant on day 1.

On Lagesson, I guess he’ll probably need to be waived on day 1 almost regardless, no? The Day 1 team would have to have 8 D and waive/assign another forward (beyond Nygard) to include Lagesson on the roster…

Seems unlikely. And I don’t think there’s a great risk that Lagesson gets claimed.

defmn

There is one other way that has not been mentioned.

If Bear signs at $1.5 M & Nygard is sent to Bakersfield & Lagesson is kept as the 8th dman they will be over the cap by $1,492,491.

The cap hit closest to that number most unlikely to be claimed is Smith. I can’t imagine anybody would claim him. Paper send him to Bakersfield and LTI Klefbom.

The team gets about $2.6 M in cap room as long as Klef is gone for the season I believe. Smith might not like it but I am sure he would understand the reason for doing it.

OriginalPouzar

I see Lagesson on the opening night roster on day 1. I don’t think they’ll expose him to waivers. I think two forwards will need to be assigned on day one for roster reasons, assuming they wait until day 1 to LTIR Klef – may need a third to get cap compliant depending on the Bear contract.

I don’t think there is a great chance Lagesson gets claimed but we don’t know. They didn’t want to risk it with P. Russell of all players…

jp

OriginalPouzar

I know that Neal and Chiasson were good as a pair along with Khaira but I gather from your post that they were good with other centers as well?

The only issue I have with that pair is how the heck does one get Archie in the lineup when they are together?

Unless he starts to struggle or regresses, I think Archie is in the lineup nightly – he add speed and tenacity.

Then again, with his style of play, he does get beat up – another potential for some load management.

Yeah, they were very good with Nuge and Gagner, also decent with Haas. The Nuge/Gagner minutes would have been as the 2nd line too, so they faced pretty difficult comp with success.

(Recall as well that Neal was among the top 6 Oilers forwards in TOI/game and %TOI vs elites this season. We like to call him a 4th liner but he wasn’t used like one by Tippett this past season).

Overall Neal and Chiasson played 227 minutes together during the season. The 5v5 on ice results were:
53.6%SF 64.2%GF 57.8%SCF 65.7%SCF

About half of those were with Nuge, plus 20-30 minutes with Gagner, Haas and Khaira.

They also played 30 minutes in the playoffs with Khaira that were every bit as good.

So 250 minutes total. Not a huge sample but also not tiny.

I have no idea how to fit Archibald in. But Tippett has some (good) problems since Holland gave him too many NHL forwards.

I’d like to pencil Neal and Chiasson in flanking Turris if if weren’t for all the other bottom 6 types around.

OriginalPouzar

Damn that Ennis and Puljujarvi, knocking the Chiasson/Neal pair down…..

OriginalPouzar

Nice!

OriginalPouzar

defmn

There is one other way that has not been mentioned.

If Bear signs at $1.5 M & Nygard is sent to Bakersfield & Lagesson is kept as the 8th dman they will be over the cap by $1,492,491.

The cap hit closest to that number most unlikely to be claimed is Smith. I can’t imagine anybody would claim him. Paper send him to Bakersfield and LTI Klefbom.

The team gets about $2.6 M in cap room as long as Klef is gone for the season I believe. Smith might not like it but I am sure he would understand the reason for doing it.

Assigning Smith only saves $1.075M off the cap – there will still be a $425K cap hit for him so it wouldn’t get us there.

I also believe the roster has to have at least 2 goalies on it.

Last edited 15 days ago by OriginalPouzar
defmn

Duh. Must have been past my bedtime when I came up with that.