Rough Trade

by Lowetide

Ken Holland did not have a great trade deadline. Finding the worst trade deadline in team history would involve several high profile disasters and ill-timed transactions. The best trade deadline? A short and fascinating list of choices.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

TRADE DEADLINE 1987

  • March 2, 1987—Oilers traded second-round pick (Link Gaetz) to the Minnesota North Stars for C Kent Nilsson. This was a fantastic pickup, Nilsson had a major impact on the team upon arrival. A ridiculous talent, he finally got with the right team. Magic man. Sather loaded up at least in part due to the disappointment of 1986.
  • March 6, 1987—Oilers trade D Lee Fogolin, Mark Napier and fourth-round pick (John Bradley) to the Buffalo Sabres for Normand Lacombe, a fourth-round pick (Peter Eriksson) and the rights to Wayne Van Dorp. Two of my favorites heading out, Lacombe a young prospect who the Oilers felt could provide them with that patented two-way grittiness that made up Slats best teams. Lacombe delivered, but was not here a long time. Fogolin was the heart and soul of the early Oilers, can’t begin to tell you how crestfallen I was on this day.
  • March 10, 1987—Oilers trade L Raimo Summanen to the Vancouver Canucks for L Moe Lemay. This was acknowledgement that Summanen—once highly touted—was not going to be part of the inner circle Oilers. I always liked him. Lemay was fun to watch.

TRADE DEADLINE 1988

  • March 8, 1988—Oilers trade G Andy Moog and L Moe Lemay to the Boston Bruins for G Bill Ranford, L Geoff Courtnall, F Alan May and a second-round selection (Petro Koivunen). This might be the best deadline trade in Oilers history, it’s certainly near the top. Courtnall played 19 games on the 1988 winner, Ranford won the 1990 Conn Smythe and emerged as the Oilers starter for the first half of the 1990s.

TRADE DEADLINE 2006

  • March 8, 2006—Oilers trade 2006 first-round pick (Trevor Lewis) and 2007 third-round pick (Spencer Machacek) to the Minnesota Wild for G Dwayne Roloson. Kevin Lowe’s best trade addressed weakness and sent a fine NHL soaring to new heights. Trading first-round picks should happen once in a very blue moon but this one paid enormous dividends.
  • March 9, 2006—Oilers trade C Marty Reasoner and C Yan Stastny plus 2006 second-round pick (Milan Lucic) to the Boston Bruins for LW Sergei Samsonov. Samsonov had electric offense and the club needed it, the second-round pick ended up being a home run but the deal was worth it for Edmonton. A monster.

Some of the memorable deadlines are bittersweet (dealing Bo Mironov three days before acquiring Jason Smith) and some seemed like a big deal and were but not in the way intended (Martin Rucinsky for Ron Tugnutt). Do you have a favourite deadline deal?

CARTER SAVOIE

Savoie played in his first NCAA game last night, based on OP’s reports (and we thank him) lots of events and some of them good. I think Savoie has a real chance but this first season will be a challenge. Not just Covid-19, but adjusting to new surroundings and lots of lifestyle changes. Emphasis will be on fitness and positioning one expects, the offensive part of his game is already brilliant (three shots on goal in his debut and it does look like he deflected the puck on the way to the net).

PHILIP BROBERG

He made the roster for Sweden’s WJ club, no surprise there. The World Juniors arrive at a good time for the young blue, he has struggled in recent weeks:

  • First 11 games: 1-4-5, -1
  • Last 10 games: 1-1-2, -6
  • Overall: 21 games, 2-5-7, -7

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Ryan

Georgexs

 Reply to  Ryan

 December 3, 2020 10:41 pm

Gee, thanks. You’re useful too but definitely not in a quant sense… you don’t appear to do actual modeling or analysis… more a management type… JP put together actual numbers and you gave him yeah buts and empty calories… very mid-managerial. No, it’s more when you cite your favorite fancy stats celebrities (who you’re apparently on a first name basis with; it’s cute you expect everyone to know your friends too; the only Dom I know doesn’t have friends). Your hand waving sometimes leads me to actual analysis work. That’s your useful part. Stumbleupon.

Now I have no idea what your friend Dom has done that’s won you over. I’m guessing you haven’t put it through the paces. Because, that’s, you know… eww… quant work. From what I’ve seen, you seem happy to accept anything as long as it comes from fancy stats brand names. Hey, also very mid-managerial. Back in the day, no one got fired for buying IBM. Maybe not so safe a move now. There’s a lot of noise in hockey fancy stats that passes for signal. Lots of junk in that fancy stats trunk. Hockey is tough to get a handle on. I’d have a look except for that pesky Athletic link.

I don’t know if Dom gets the final word on NHL contracts but here’s a list of signings from last year (the “what you could obtain on the free agent market” part during a regular free agent market):

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-free-agency-tracker-2019-signings-best-available-players/1viop7i2jdglk1uvswtiitsvah

Did Dom have ethnicity in his model? Was is_greek a strong predictor of hockey_player_value? Is that why AA was supposed to get much less than his peers? Or is the whole world crazy pants for paying people something other than Dom says they’re worth?

AA and this year’s crop of free agents had bad timing. Which led to just astonishing deals for the Oil (Barrie, Turris, Kahun, Ennis, hey maybe AA too down the road.)

Your description of AA in this thread is revealing. One dimensional. It’s his +/- that really bothers you, isn’t it? It’s really bad; also supposed to be really meaningless, no? Maybe every veteran of the fancy stats wars who fought with Tyler on the side of corsi reverts to +/- under duress. Losing your religion. I get it.

Wow, that’s quite a diatribe!

To reflect back to you, obviously I find the tone of your post to be quite offensive, but I come to this website for the discussion and stay for the insults. Perhaps I’m too old and your generation Z humour is going over my head.

Not that I want to start a pissing contest, because I’m certain that most people here can piss a lot farther than I can. Probably yourself included…

But in a past role (many years ago), I was involved with academic research. Yes, I have a small number of publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals (with very low impact factors. I’m not exactly on the path to a Nobel Prize). They even involved actual original scientific data and gee golly statistics… I used an ancient software program called SPSS. Yes, I did actual analysis with binomial logistic regression models etc. Me? really! Granted, we had programmers on the team to scrape data and create the database, so that’s never been my forte.

Gee, thanks. You’re useful too but definitely not in a quant sense… you don’t appear to do actual modeling or analysis… more a management type… JP put together actual numbers and you gave him yeah buts and empty calories… very mid-managerial. No, it’s more when you cite your favorite fancy stats celebrities (who you’re apparently on a first name basis with; it’s cute you expect everyone to know your friends too; the only Dom I know doesn’t have friends). Your hand waving sometimes leads me to actual analysis work. That’s your useful part. Stumbleupon.

As for the JP discussion, in cases where I’ve acknowledged something is difficult to measure, it was more expedient to simply state my option.

As for Dom, he’s fairly well-known and I included a link. I wasn’t name dropping as you’re implying. I have never had the occasion to meet nor have I had a single discussion with Dom. He does put his work out there for public scrutiny and consumption.

Regardless of whether or not you like his actual model, it’s hard not to like what his model attempts to do.

I just found this, and haven’t read anything yet…

Dom does have some posts available for public consumption at hockey graphs here.

Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
Georgexs

If I kept a blog for 15 years, posting a brand new article (two for a big stretch) bright and early every single day since and tending to the whims and vagaries of the opinionated community it spawned, I think I would understand a bit of where you’re coming from with your use of bullying in this context. Even though I haven’t walked in your shoes, and I don’t have your patience, perspective, or temperament, your use of that word still registers.

Honestly, I couldn’t put up with the guy who regularly shows up to parse what I write and chide and disagree for as long as you’ve put up with me. Who needs that? I would’ve banned that jackass a long time ago. You, otoh, have a very long fuse, not just for me but for other oddballs and their oddball ways.

I think I’ll follow your advice to those who step out of bounds and start my own blog. Get in the game, as it were. Feels like a healthier choice all around.

One last observation. Having the person you (I assume) rely on to maintain your site participate in the comments section may or may not cause issues. Danny was always a background figure on the old site, popping in mainly (solely?) for site status updates. That was wise.

My apologies for any and all unpleasantness over the past 4 years.

Cheers LT, to you and the Oilers community you’ve built! But especially to you…

defmn

If this is how you choose to proceed I wish you nothing but good luck. It is, after all, exactly the reason that our current host gave for starting this blog after a number of years on the HF board.

It is the path that Dellow followed that led to his being hired by two NHL franchises. And if you think you can be ascerbic & assholey you should have seen him in action in his years on HF. He was a complete dick.

I want to say one thing though just because I enjoy your level of analysis and will miss that if you leave.

Expertise is not the same thing as intelligence. Most of the posters here are very intelligent. It is one of the few common threads that marks this community. Many also have an expertise – one that has nothing to do with hockey or statistics but an expertise that allows them to feed their family, or understand how many levels there are to expertise, or just something that allows themselves to view life from a particular perspective.

It is important to respect the difference. Expertise narrows the field of those you can converse with on a regular basis unless you are also able or willing to respect their natural intelligence. You will soon enough find yourself talking only to yourself otherwise – and although that can be a satisfying way of spending your time it has a tendency to push towards peculiarity over time.

And the upside?

Explaining or teaching has the virtue of surprising us at how many assumptions our own analysis contains. Not because they are wrong so much as that having assumed they were correct you never felt the need to follow your own conclusions to their most basic reasoning level. Engaging intelligent people you disagree with on their conclusions is the most efficient way of discovering those reasoning jumps which is the quickest path to next level understanding of your own thought.

Snark has its attractions but they pale compared to the joy involved in discovering a new path of knowledge to explore. You do not make arguments in order to convert others but in order to sharpen your own understanding in the face of skepticism.

Whatever you decide I wish you well.

jp

I agree with this, FWIW. There’s no general problem Ryan.

I also very much appreciate George’s contributions and will miss them if he moves on.

Things escalated the other night and I’m sure both parties would prefer if it hadn’t gone the way it did.

N64

not the worst oil deadline trade but lest we forget the capstone on Tambi’s inert resume the Smithson smigeon.

jp

Perhaps ‘most disappointing’?

Georgexs

The flow of play during the playoffs in spite of the breakup of the DRY line still favored the Oilers. Goaltending was horrendous, unfortunately.

Wait, did the Oilers make the playoffs this year? Whaaat?

Last edited 4 months ago by Georgexs
defmn

I know you have to squint to make it true but in a weird covid shortened kind of way, yes.

Georgexs

… so Tippett (last time in 11-12) and Holland (15-16) made the playoffs again…

Mission… accomplished?

defmn

Somebody is on a mission?

I’m just saying they were in the playoffs according to every criteria of a normal NHL season.

Is that somehow in question?

Georgexs

Sorry… that came off as snarky toward you. My bad.

It was meant to be snarky toward the two Oilers head honchos… mostly toward the HC.

defmn

No problem.

OriginalPouzar

Technically, because they lost the made-up play-in, even though they finished 2nd in the division, they missed the playoffs but noone can really argue, without bias that, based on the regular season, they weren’t a playoff team.

Harpers Hair

Now up to 6 teams considering outdoor games with fans in the stands.

Carolina owner Tom Dundon apparently pushing hard and Bettman is encouraging other teams to chime in.

defmn

I was at the original Heritage Classic in Edmonton. You have to really, really want to watch hockey to sit outside in January and February in Alberta.

godot10

What about April, May, and June?

defmn

Mosquito season? 😉

Yeah, March, April & May could work. Good to know they are looking at everything.

pts2pndr

Golf weather. Time for fishing camping and golf. Did I mention golf!

Harpers Hair

I was there too…and it was packed.

I guess you have to balance the cost of staging outdoor games with the potential revenue.

Unfortunately Commonwealth Stadium with its running track makes it less than ideal for a hockey game although I suppose they could set up temporary seating on the track to make it more intimate.

I wonder if John Ducey Stadium, or whatever it’s called now, might be a better location.

Last edited 4 months ago by Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

The Jason Smith acquisition was one of the best trades in Oiler history and doesn’t get nearly enough talk in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

Lafreniere not being released for a World Juniors (nor Jack Hughes).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Sucks to see the talent pool diminish but those two not being released improves Holloway’s odds.

OriginalPouzar

Hughes doesn’t impact Holloway – US dude.

From accounts of guys like Button and Rishaug (who are covering the tourney for TSN), Holloway is all but a lock.

OriginalPouzar

Vasby lost 8-4 today.

Lavoie with a goal and an assist and actually finished plus 1 in the game.

Kemp had his first pro point with the assist on the Lavoie goal, had two shots on goal and was -1 – he played 18 minutes – was listed as LD (not RD) and 2nd in TOI among LD on the team.

—————.—–

Nygard with a goal and an assist today as he continues to find his offensive game

Broberg playing top pairing right side today and had 21 minutes of ice (2nd most ice on the team) – he had a shot but finished -2.

————

Samourkov played a shade under 19 minutes and was -1 in a 4-2 loss.

Ryan

Juolevi must be the only top five pick in the past 40 years who hasn’t seen an (*edit ‘regular season’) NHL game by his draft + 4 season.

Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
Harpers Hair

One game in last season’s playoffs.

Ryan

I had to edit my comment. I forgot about that.

OriginalPouzar

Does 6:16 of total ice time (5:10 at 5 on 5) with 6 out of 10 shifts started “on the fly” count as a game?

Harpers Hair

Yes, of course.

How many playoff games has Bouchard played?

defmn

Bouchard was a top 5 pick and in his +4 draft season already?

Good to know.

Harpers Hair

Has Bouchard missed most of two seasons due to injury and been unable to train in the offseason because he was re-habbing from the three surgeries he required?

As it stands, Juolevi seems to have now recovered and has regained his mobility.

That he is only a year older than Bouchard should make for an interesting comparison as the years pass.

OriginalPouzar

Nope, Bouchard hasn’t – he’s been spending his post draft seasons exceeding reasonable expectations (a) draft plus 1 – OHL D-man of the year, (b) draft plus 2 – AHL all-star as a 20 year old rookie pro, (c) draft plus 3 – second leading scorer in Allsvenskan and waiting for the NHL camp start date.

Harpers Hair

That’s nice.

But when the Oilers D was playing like dog shit against Chicago in the play in all he got was popcorn

Wonder why Tippet didn’t think he could help?

defmn

But nothing to do with the subject.

Nothing.

It’s just junior high level juvenile.

jp

It’s like you presaged the post directly above yours.

pts2pndr

Thought the discussion was about a Canuck D. Your reply was shall I say adolescent at best. Like to dish out a little weak on the return serves.

OriginalPouzar

There is real truth in the concept. We’ve seen many examples of Oilers that were more productive in the NHL the AHL – Klefbom and Yamamoto come to mind.

Eh Team

That’s too funny. Jim Benning- wise NHL hockey man. The reason the Canucks aren’t winning the Stanley Cup anytime soon.

OmJo

As for Holland’s trade deadline, I wouldn’t say it wasn’t great. I wouldn’t say it was great, either. It was a solid trade deadline if the season finished off normally. He was just unfortunate, more than anything.

It’s fitting that when the Oilers finally start looking like they’re on their way to being contenders, the world ends.

OmJo

Since we’re talking trades, I have to ask…

Has the NHL discussed how trading will work around current and/or future travel restrictions and quarantine regulations?

OriginalPouzar

I would think they have discussed that in the discussions they have had but have not disclosed anything publicly yet – it will be part of the return to play protocol – I can’t imagine how difficult it must be to sort through the countless issues they need to in order to formulate a plan for a season.

The logistics are immeasurably complicated.

OriginalPouzar

Kemp with the point shot and Lavoie ticks in the rebound. Congrats to Kemp on his first pro point.

I guess quarantine upon arrival to Sweden isn’t much of a thing – didn’t expect him in the lineup so quickly.

https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/1334579469370048512?s=21

OriginalPouzar

Savoie officially credited with the goal last night. I knew he tipped that!

Harpers Hair

How elite puck moving defensemen are changing the game.

https://www.tsn.ca/yost-defencemen-have-changed-the-nhl-s-offensive-landscape-1.1559412

Harpers Hair

How the Ottawa Senators are using UND as an unofficial NCAA farm team.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/senators-using-und-farm-team-top-prospects/sn-amp/

Shane

Hey OP,
A bit off topic here but I just wanted to address something you said yesterday with regards to Klefbom.

You were speaking of the Canadian division and how Klefbom may or may not miss the season.
Whereas in Spector’s article from Tuesday he’s quoted Holland as saying ‘we’re 99.9 percent sure Klefbom will miss the 20-21 season.

It seems we need to stick a fork in the idea that Klefbom will be back for 20-21 and possibly even longer..

PS Apologies for the clunky post, my original intention was to have quotes from you and the article but apparently I don’t know how to copy/paste in the new comments section..?

OriginalPouzar

To be honest, I missed that quote from Holland yesterday.

I was posting on the info that I thought was current where Holland had expressed they were planning on Klefbom not being available for the year but still weren’t certain.

I was operating on the previous info that Klef was still rehabbing and going to see how the shoulder was as camp approached – hence why surgery hadn’t happened yet.

This is the first I had heard of such certainty with reference to Klef looking to be healthy in September and not really focussing on this coming season any more – if that is indeed the correct interpretation of the Holland’s quote.

Thank you for pointing this out.

Harpers Hair

A great hockey story here.

The only hockey bar in Seattle is in danger of closing just as the Kraken are about to take the ice.

Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) Tweeted:
Thanks for reading (and discussing) my ESPN+ column on The Angry Beaver, Seattle’s only hockey bar. Fans are fundraising to make sure it’s around for when the @NHLSeattle_ Kraken arrive. Wild story (explosions! robberies!), honored to tell it. #NHL (1/3) 

https://t.co/PfrWxjPcqM

https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1334563786137759744?s=20

Kraz

I went there in 2017 to watch the Oilers season opener against Calgary. Was a fantastic atmosphere with fans from lots of different teams gathered. Felt like watching a game in a Canadian bar!

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

I’ve watched Carter Savoie play exactly one game in my life but I think 3 or so years in college is going to be great for him.

What I saw last night really lined up with the scouting reports. With the puck on his stick, he has clear talent, however, when the puck isn’t on his stick he really isn’t noticeable.

I can’t tell you from watching that his fitness and work ethic need developing but the type of game that I saw do line up with that narrative and where better to work on those “skills” then in college with plus coaching, lots of practice time, great facilities and, frankly, a longer runway to sign the player than if he was drafted out of the CHL.

I was heartened to see him on PP1 all night, I was heartened to see that he had a regular shift all game and I was heartened to see him get both PP and 5 on 5 shifts in the last 5 minutes with the team down and needing a goal. That was more material usage than I anticipated for the rookie.

Ryan

I really liked the Savoie selection.

I had previously compared his AJHL production to Holloway before the draft in a thread somewhere here.

If Savoie didn’t have some warts like defensive effort / fitness / lack of size, he wouldn’t have been a 4rth round pick.

He obviously has the talent. These are the types of picks with the potential to be home runs if he puts some work into the other aspects of his game.

OriginalPouzar

Holloway may not have the “puck on stick talent” of Savoie but that size and speed and athleticism and hockey IQ and worth ethic and character and aggressiveness and plus shot and advanced two-way play (for a teenager), etc. sets a first round pick apart for a 4th round pick based on talent alone.

Here is hoping Savoie can develop out of some of his stated deficiencies – if he does, that’s when 4th round picks become NHL players.

Ryan

I wasn’t trying to disparage Holloway with that comment. 🙂

Usually guys with that much talent (like Savoie) are picked far sooner than the 4rth round unless there’s an issue or two.

Brayden Point had the wonky stride and small size.

In other terms, we’re a little overdue for a 4rth round impact forward from the draft. I’m hoping that’s Savoie.

OriginalPouzar

The first thing I read is “Ken Holland did not have a great trade deadline” as, after the deadline came and went, most Oiler fans were happy with what Holland was able to do, acquiring 3 pieces for essentially just draft picks and no first round pick. The price for AA was thought to be, while not cheap, reasonable, given he was under team control.

Things didn’t work out great with Mike Green getting hurt, opting out and retiring and, of course, AA never really settling in (injury and then pause) and gaining traction and the financial landscape of the league changing meaning the team needed to walk from him, however, that is hindsight.

I guess, ultimately, GMs need to be assessed with how things work out, with the benefit of hindsight, and not necessarily on the reasonableness of the bet at the time of each transaction.

Ryan

I think it’s possible to do both.

I’ll get lambasted here for say this, but I don’t think that AA was a good player to target, in general, regardless of the acquisition price at the time or the Covid UFA market.

Cue GeorgeXs with his data table of 2nd round pick probability of success etc…

I think AA is a heavily flawed player despite his offensive ability and not the type of player you would see on a contending team.

Gagner, in his prime, was a vastly different player than AA, but still a player who’s net impact was to generally hurt a team despite consistently producing offense.

OriginalPouzar

I believe it was Willis that (pre-draft) had a write-up on “buyer beware” targets and AA was at the top of the list.

pts2pndr

While I don’t disagree that AA may not have been an ideal target given what was required, what was available and the cost to obtain I submit he was a reasonable bet. Had the cap increased as was going to be the case Holland could have re-signed and or traded AA. If economics had stayed as per normal it is absolutely possible Holland could have as a minimum been able to recoup one of the second rounders in a trade for AA. At the time the deal was made he was looking at first of all a continued run to the playoffs and also to reward the team for their efforts to that point in the season. I think his deals leading up to the deadline check all of the boxes of what a competent seasoned GM would do.

Ryan

Let’s create a hypothetical situation.

It’s the spring of 2014. You’re the GM of a playoff team.

Pretend Sam Gagner is an RFA with arb rights.

He had 38 points in 48 game one year prior. (65 points over an 82 game schedule).

That season, he had 37 points in 67 games. -29

Do you trade two second round picks for Sam Gagner (based on the info available at that time)?

Now looking at his career arc, with the benefit of that, do you trade two second round picks for Sam Ganger?

Remember the Blue Jackets season, he was 4rth line and plenty of PP time.

Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
jp

It’s an interesting question. If Gagner were making $3M in 2014 instead of $4.8M (that’s $6.1M adjusting to the current cap), then maybe.

Gagner (to that point in his career) hadn’t actually been a drag on GF/GA at all relative to team. By year his 5v5 GF%Rel was:
07-08 -4.4
08-09 +3.2
09-10 +4.2
10-11 -2.0
11-12 +8.9
12-13 -1.8
13-14 -5.9 (this is the season you highlighted)
——————
14-15 +5.7 (Arizona)
15-16 +6.5 (Philadelphia)
16-17 +3.7
On signing his UFA deal with the Canucks he promptly fell off the cliff. But to that point he’d been a bit better than his teams most often. (though he also benefited from quite strong linemates through his time with the Oilers)

Athanasiou is fairly similar in terms of on ice results. He’s been better than his team for the most part up until this past season.

I don’t agree he’s ‘generally hurt’ his team (like Gagner, he wasn’t good enough to elevate a poor team, but definitely not hurting that team).
In his first 4 years his GF%Rel was:
15-16 +8.6
16-17 +4.0
17-18 -4.3
18-19 +1.8
In that span he was -13 at 5v5 on a team that was -74.

This past season he was -31 at 5v5 on a historically bad team that was -76 overall. It wasn’t pretty for AA but his PDO was .916. His SF% was 45.0% vs 45.8% for the team.

AA owns some of it I’m sure, but ‘terrible team’ and ‘bad luck’ own more IMO. And he doesn’t really have a history of being outscored.

Another issue I have with the AA/Gagner comparison is that AA is actually a better scorer, and has scored his points with less help than Gagner did.

Gagner scored 1.99P/60 in his rookie year (and got over 2.0 in his year with Columbus). But for the rest of his Oilers career he scored between 1.44 and 1.94P/60 yearly. AA was 2.38, 1.95, 1.81, 1.97 before last season. Actually a better scoring rate than Gagner, and AA also scores more goals.

AA looks to be around 1.0G/60 for his career, Gagner was more like 0.6 during his Oilers years. In actual 5v5 goals Gagner had 11 in 11-12 and 10 in 08-09 but never hit double digits any other year. AA scored 15, 13, 21 in his full seasons (7 this year).

I think you can put AA on a 2nd or 3rd line with whoever and he’ll score ~15 goals, without hurting the goal differential. Gagner I think needed to play with better players to produce points, and with those players he also wasn’t hurting the team particularly (through his first stint with the Oilers).

Anyway that’s my 2 cents (more than 2 I guess).

Maybe AA is heavily flawed. He at least has some tools/skills that allow him to score goals in the NHL. And I don’t see much evidence of him hurting his team while doing it.

Ryan

While I think GF%Rel is a valiant attempt to examine whether or not a player is a drag on his team, it’s mostly a way to delineate who plays in the top six vs bottom six forwards on a given team.

I’ll agree that for a winger, it’s difficult to quantify the impact of defensive deficiency.

AA is empty calories.

Imagine living in a world in which food was priced solely on the caloric content.

In the NHL, teams always pay for offense. In the case of one-dimensional players who don’t create elite offense, that price is often too high.

jp

These are Athanasiou’s most common linemates 16-17 through 18-19 (everyone over 200 min with). Those years partly because I think this past season was an anomaly for AA and partly because NST only lets me do 3 year blocks.

Player/Minutes/GF%With/PlayerGF%Without
Larkin —— 705 46.0 45.2
Nielsen —- 658 54.4 43.9
Glendening 455 51.3 41.4
Helm ——- 408 40.6 45.2
Vanek —— 399 55.9 46.0
Abdelkader 360 42.9 41.6
Bertuzzi — 358 37.0 56.6
Mantha —- 325 44.4 57.1
Tatar ——- 298 54.6 51.3
Nyquist —- 246 57.9 54.0

Was AA playing top 6 or bottom 6? Was he a drag on his linemates?

I’m not seeing the empty calories.

Last edited 4 months ago by jp
Ryan

I’m not sure about the validity of wowy data over 3 seasons.

Ostensibly, it gives you more data, but there could be a variety of roster changes year over year. There are also player aging effects.

You could certainly end up with two players playing together during a successful campaign one year and apart mostly for two down years.

For example, at 5v5 I am getting Larkin and AA played 608:43 together vs Larkin playing 3015:43 away from AA.

That’s quite a gap.

For all of these, the players played far less apart than together.

My data seems to be quite different from what you’re pulling from NST.

Player / Minutes together / together / Player without AA/ AA without player (minutes)

Larkin / 608 / 44.83 / 49.2 / 38.6 (1929 min)
Nielsen / 510 / 50 / 42.7 / 38.3 (2027 min)
Glendening / 529 / 39 / 35.8 / 40. (2008 min)
Helm / 339 / 339 / 36 / 45 / 41 (2198 min)

I certainly don’t seen AA driving the bus.

Larkin was much better without him.

Nielsen fared better without AA than AA did without Nielsen.

Glendening sucked in any scenario.

Helm who’s been finished for awhile fared better without AA than AA did on his own without Helm.

jp

I was looking at 16-17, 17-18 and 18-19. Leaving out 19-20 because it was a freak show for the Wings (and AA in particular), and because I could only choose 3 seasons from NST. I think your numbers are 17-18, 18-19 and 19-20.

I’m not at all trying to claim that Athanasiou is a driver. I’m just arguing that he isn’t actually a drag, that has generally hurt his team (which I think is essentially what you’ve said).

I’m just looking for some tangible evidence of major defensive deficiency or hurting his team overall. I can’t see it.

OriginalPouzar

The change in economics led to the need to let AA walk but it also led to the ability to get his replacement (Kahun) at a fraction of the cost!

Georgexs

This is very touchy feely. I’ll leave my data table (how Lotus 1-2-3) out of it. You should bring your own.

Ryan

You’re a very useful quant and I do enjoy our discussions here.

At the same time, I think you sometimes reach erroneous conclusions based upon considering only a limited number of easily quantifiable parameters.

In the case of your wild proclamation of the success of trading two second round picks for AA, based solely upon his past offensive production against the probability of draft success in the second round…

You left out some considerations.

Dom’s model has its flaws, but I like that it attempts to provide some effort at quantifying a player’s overall contribution (as opposed solely to offensive contributions), as well as providing an age-based curve.

To really give an accurate assessment of the AA trade, you would have to have a weigh the lower bound of that projection against what you could obtain on the free agent market… then adjust for contract price…then factor in the value of the two second round picks.

To borrow Dom’s Game Score value added, are two second round picks really worth paying a minimum of $3 m/yr for (likely two years at $6 m+) for a GSVA of 0.5 and 0.4?

That’s if he would have taken the minimum qualifying offer without even considering the eligibility for arbitration.

Dom’s valuation had AA being worth $2.5m, $2.2m,and $1.8m over each of the next three years.

https://theathletic.com/2123801/2020/10/08/no-deal-analyzing-9-intriguing-players-who-werent-tendered-qualifying-offers/

Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
jp

I have to say some stuff in that article is a little puzzling.

The predictions appear based entirely off the most recent season. AA was 1.0, 0.9, 1.3, 0.5 over 4 seasons, so he’s predicted to decline from 0.5 onward.

Duclair was 0.9, 0.8, 0.5, 1.1 and so declines from 1.1 as he ages. And so is valued at $4.2M.

Sure, weight the most recent season, but completely ignore all previous performance?

Also, for some reason 26 year-old AAs value declines faster than 26 year-old Hinostroza’s from the same 0.5 in 2020.

I dunno.

Georgexs

Gee, thanks. You’re useful too but definitely not in a quant sense… you don’t appear to do actual modeling or analysis… more a management type… JP put together actual numbers and you gave him yeah buts and empty calories… very mid-managerial. No, it’s more when you cite your favorite fancy stats celebrities (who you’re apparently on a first name basis with; it’s cute you expect everyone to know your friends too; the only Dom I know doesn’t have friends). Your hand waving sometimes leads me to actual analysis work. That’s your useful part. Stumbleupon.

Now I have no idea what your friend Dom has done that’s won you over. I’m guessing you haven’t put it through the paces. Because, that’s, you know… eww… quant work. From what I’ve seen, you seem happy to accept anything as long as it comes from fancy stats brand names. Hey, also very mid-managerial. Back in the day, no one got fired for buying IBM. Maybe not so safe a move now. There’s a lot of noise in hockey fancy stats that passes for signal. Lots of junk in that fancy stats trunk. Hockey is tough to get a handle on. I’d have a look except for that pesky Athletic link.

I don’t know if Dom gets the final word on NHL contracts but here’s a list of signings from last year (the “what you could obtain on the free agent market” part during a regular free agent market):

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-free-agency-tracker-2019-signings-best-available-players/1viop7i2jdglk1uvswtiitsvah

Did Dom have ethnicity in his model? Was is_greek a strong predictor of hockey_player_value? Is that why AA was supposed to get much less than his peers? Or is the whole world crazy pants for paying people something other than Dom says they’re worth?

AA and this year’s crop of free agents had bad timing. Which led to just astonishing deals for the Oil (Barrie, Turris, Kahun, Ennis, hey maybe AA too down the road.)

Your description of AA in this thread is revealing. One dimensional. It’s his +/- that really bothers you, isn’t it? It’s really bad; also supposed to be really meaningless, no? Maybe every veteran of the fancy stats wars who fought with Tyler on the side of corsi reverts to +/- under duress. Losing your religion. I get it.

Harpers Hair

Reports this morning that at least 4 NHL teams are considering playing their games outdoors.

Ryan

That begs the question of which four teams.

None of the clubs would comment, but they are Anaheim, Boston, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh.

Harpers Hair
wolf8888

How are Anaheim and LA going to play outdoors with +20 degree weather?

defmn
wolf8888

That’s wild. Ive never seen that before. Welcome to the new Costa Rica women’s thong hockey league!

wolf8888

Thanks for that Defman

Harpers Hair

Evening games can be handled.

The He last Winter Classic was at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Ryan

I have a real knack for posting the last post in the old thread.

OriginalPouzar

 Reply to  Ryan

 December 2, 2020 6:26 pm

I played with this a tiny bit this morning (thank you for posting) and have yet to receive a clue on how to analyze it…. I’m lost.

It’s a new tool, so it takes some playing around with.

Like any new stat tool, I usually recommend kicking the tires and seeing if it passes the “smell test.” There are some wonky results that I’m seeing already.

There’s a twitter tread with some info:

Natural Stat Trick

@NatStatTrick

New feature – shift performance charts.

These charts take a look at the shot attempt or expected goal rate for the first 60 seconds of shifts that starts with a face-off in a given zone.

It uses expected goals, which is also what I had previously used in a reply to GeorgeXS, because it smooths out the data points (vs actual goals data which has a lot of zeros in it).

This has some limitations with players like 97. If you’re a magician like 97, there’s quite a discrepancy between expected goal data and actual results (which are much better for 97).
Also, there are wonky results if you don’t factor in what type of minutes a given defensemen is playing. As usual, playing 3rd pairing minutes gives a salubrious boost to a player’s metrics.

It shows why coaches like Russell, starfish notwithstanding, shows well as being effective at suppressing expected goals against /60 from defensive zone starts.

Georgexs

“… smooths out the data points…” ?

Smooths? You mean like a rolling average? Or kernel smoothing? Are you sure that’s what NST’s expected goals does?

Not sure what salubrious means, I’ll assume ‘boost’ works just as well. Pull 19-20’s NST on-ice 5v5 rates for D who played 400+ minutes and sort by TOI/GP. This should put the 3rd pair D near the bottom and the first pairing D near the top. Then check to see if either half has a higher rate of 50+ results for CF%, GF%, and xGF%. I’m not sure the boost works the way you think it does. The top half has more 50+ CF% (62-47) and xGF% (59-40) D. They have the same number of 50+ GF% D (56-56). Where’s the 3rd pair boost?

godot10

Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success?

Because it “worked” so well last time against Chicago! (-

Maximizing the Oilers will happen/happens when the Oilers are maximizing Nugent-Hopkins. We now know that maximizing Nugent-Hopkins happens when he plays with Draisaitl, not when he plays with McDavid.

It is time to stop using Nugent-Hopkins to paper over the problem areas of the Oilers roster.

Ryan

The flow of play during the playoffs in spite of the breakup of the DRY line still favored the Oilers. Goaltending was horrendous, unfortunately.

Reja

If they win game 3 they would have won the series the Hawks score 2 on deflections in the final 5 minutes that you can’t blame Kosh on. Bear and especially Nurse need to learn how to box out a man waiting to tip it. This was the Hawks game plan to get as many shots from the point hoping for a deflection past Herman muster and the plan worked.Tippett never adapted to put more pressure on the Hawks D and it cost us the series.

OriginalPouzar

Maximizing the Oilers will come when both the McDavid and Drai lines are rolling at 57% plus goal shares and the bottom six is not materially below 50%.

Brantford Boy

I was about to say the 2005 Peca – York trade but that wasn’t a deadline deal.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/in-depth-oilers-trade-deadline-history/c-755779

MARCH 23, 1999
At and leading up to the 1999 NHL Trade Deadline, The Oilers made a series of moves which really helped solidify the core of what would be a very good NHL team for the next seven years.

First, on March 20, the Oilers acquired Tommy Salo from the New York Islanders in exchange for Mats Lindgren and an eight-round pick (Radek Martinek). Then on the actual deadline day, the team acquired Daniel Cleary, Chad Kilger, Christian Laflamme and Ethan Moreau from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Jonas Elofsson, Dean McAmmond and Boris Mironov.

The Oilers followed up that move with acquiring future captain Jason Smith from Toronto for a fourth-round pick (Jonathan Zion) and a second-round pick (Kris Vernarsky).

From those moves, the team had added four key components in Cleary, Salo, Moreau and Smith.

Cleary played 220 games as an Oiler with 31 goals and 86 points and would go on to an NHL career of 934 regular season games, 165 goals and 387 points.

Moreau played 928 games in his NHL career, the majority with Edmonton over 10 seasons. He was also Oilers captain from 2007 until 2010.

Smith was with the Oilers for seven seasons and 682 regular season games. He captained them to Game 7 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final.

Salo played 334 games with a 2.44 goals-against average and a record of 147-128-51 with 23 shutouts. He remains the Oilers all-time leader in shutouts and goals-against average and is third in all-time games played among net minders.

for a third-round pick in August 1997.

This would be a second… although I really liked Tikkanen, his career was on the back nine, although he did have a reasonable season with NYR/STL and 2 with the Canucks… I loved Doug Weight as an Oiler.

The big trade came on March 17, 1993. With the Oilers on the road at Madison Square Gardens, Esa Tikkanen and Doug Weight swapped dressing rooms. Tikkanen remains eighth on the Oilers in all-time goals with 178 while Doug Weight finished his career ninth in goals at 157 and sixth in assists at 420.

Reja

Doug Weight was one of my all time favourites the man had heart.

Bling

The most heart-wrenching deadline day trade, for me, was Janne Niinimaa.

He loved Edmonton and was very emotional upon hearing of the (unexpected) trade.

I remember Bob McKenzie saying the return (Raffi Torres, Brad Isbister, and a pick that turned into Brad Winchester, I think) was not enough.

The trade worked out well, mostly because Janne was towards the end of his career, even though he was still young.

Kert

I think the trade was Niinima plus a second (Evgeny Tunik) for Torres and Isbister. The Winchester pick was part of the Hamrlik for Brewer trade a few years earlier.
But I do agree, it was a sad day. Janne was easy to cheer for.

The Trade Guy

If memory service Janne came to us on an slats dead line deal with Philly for Dan Mcgillis

jp

Ken Holland did not have a great trade deadline.“

I’ll go a step further than T MaC above. I liked Holland’s deadline moves, period.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Same. They were good bets at the time.

pts2pndr

Would it not be fair to say that in the cap world it is more difficult to win or even break even in a trade particularly in the case of a trade deadline deal to beef up for a playoff run. Holland had the added disadvantage of the COVID shutdown which made his moves look worse than they really were. Without the completed season Tippett never had the games to find a fit for AA and on top of that was his injury. Green who was meant as insurance for a playoff run never played. The two second rounders for AA were the going price or a slight discount at the time of the deal. It still may have worked out if the frozen cap hadn’t happened. He made what seemed reasonable bets but the timing bit him in the butt.

Todd Macallan

While I agree the most recent deadline was poor as a result of AA, the Ennis deal was full value, and continues to be.

Tarkus

I’m glad it had been us
To acquire Ennis
Though the returns were too few
For Athanasiou
And no one could have foreseen
What happened with Green
It might be early to grade
This past deadline of trade
But for our GM Ken
I give seven out of ten.

Last edited 4 months ago by Tarkus
flyfish1168

The trade deadline that brought both Dick Tarnstrom and Jaroslav Spacek has to rank pretty high for me.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t forget Samsanov – he was key to a few goals, in particular in the Detroit series, and general depth of skill.

A 2nd round pick to rent Samsanov was a beauty deal.

Of course, the Bruins used the pick on Lucic and the Oilers spend the next decade trying to draft the “next Lucic” – the coke machine era – until they decided to over pay to get him at the wrong time for the wrong term.

The Trade Guy

A little bit of trivia, but I believe Lowe also almost brought back Dean Mccammond for that cup run but the trade was in a couple minutes too late.