The Finnish Line

by Lowetide

Anton Slepyshev’s first NHL season was 2016-17. Edmonton was having a good season but needed some inexpensive scoring wingers to emerge. Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula hung around that season as candidates, both scoring three goals in the playoffs. Four years later, both are long gone.

Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and other youngsters are trying to make the NHL grade in 2020-21, what is the scoring ‘line in the sand’ for future success?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

THE LINE IN THE SAND

All numbers five on five per 60 via NST and this is rookie seasons or first full season (some rookies didn’t play enough to register). Your line in the sand may be different than mine, I’m looking for the group of forwards who scored enough in their first NHL look to project as a productive top-nine forward.

  1. Kailer Yamamoto (2019-20) 3.16
  2. Connor McDavid (2015-16) 2.73
  3. Leon Draisaitl (2015-16) 2.17
  4. Nail Yakupov (2012-13) 2.14
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011-12) 1.96
  6. Mark Arcobello (2013-14) 1.84
  7. Jordan Eberle (2010-11) 1.82
  8. Linus Omark (2010-11) 1.73
  9. Taylor Hall (2010-11) 1.57
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi (2016-17) 1.45
  11. Jujhar Khaira (2017-18) 1.38
  12. Anton Slepyshev (2016-17) 1.34
  13. Magnus Paajarvi (2010-11) 1.32
  14. Joakim Nygard (2019-20) 1.27
  15. Iiro Pakarinen (2015-16) 1.15
  16. Drake Caggiula (2016-17) 1.13
  17. Lennart Petrell (2011-12) 0.84
  18. Gaetan Haas (2019-20) 0.81
  19. Anton Lander (2011-12) 0.62
  20. Tyler Pitlick (2014-15) 0.58

That’s my line in the sand, your mileage may vary. This doesn’t mean Puljujarvi is guaranteed to score 1.75+ points per game for the next decade, nor does it pronounce sentence on Nygard or Haas.

If Puljujarvi can win the No. 3 right wing job and elevate to top-six in time for 2021-22, that would represent one of Holland’s best moves to date and give Edmonton five of six homegrown options on the top two lines. Even with the McDavid head start, that’s some good drafting were it true.

A year from now, we could be looking at Kahun, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi as wingers for most or all of the coming decade on Edmonton’s skill lines. Cap will be an issue but that’s always an issue. Of course, Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway and Carter Savoie may have something to say about the future.

LENNSTROM OVER THE ATLANTIC

I’m not sure we’ll get a training camp roster before the first morning camp actually opens but it’s worth paying attention to the men who are in or out currently. Evan Bouchard and Theodor Lennstrom are either in Edmonton or on their way, while William Lagesson remains overseas and Philip Broberg is bubble bound in Edmonton for the World Juniors. Ethan Bear is unsigned, Oscar Klefbom is injured. The current confirmed or assumed depth chart for training camp on defense looks like this:

  • Darnell Nurse-Tyson Barrie
  • Caleb Jones-Adam Larsson
  • Kris Russell-Evan Bouchard
  • Theodor Lennstrom

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re off and running for another week at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bundle up and stay tuned for Daniel Valente from The Score at 10:20. He’ll talk NFL weekend and the Monday Nighter. Corey Graham from the Corey Graham Show on TSN1260 will give us an update on the World Juniors, and Jason Gregor will pop in at 11 to discuss the Oilers training camp to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Savoie was awarded co-rookie of the week honors by the National College Hockey Conference – and this was just for his first 3 games. He was MUCH more dynamic in his 3rd and 4th gams – at 5 on 5.

Too bad he’s diminishing!

OriginalPouzar

Look forward to this read – thank you sir.

OriginalPouzar

I feel guilty for not watching this but after watching 2 Wisconsin games and 5 Denver games and then about 2/3 of two NorthEastern games, with Skyler being such a distant bell, I’m going to give myself a night off.

wolf8888

Slacker! 🙂

Harpers Hair

How about that Aidan McDough guy at Northeastern.

Scoring at a 2PPG pace!

OriginalPouzar

What a troll post – made solely to encite.

I am confident no one else the reads or comments could care less about that 21 year old’s performance through two games.

Of note, Savoie’s performance is by an 18 year old, not a 21 year old

Harpers Hair

Encite is not a word.
Don’t they teach spelling in law school?

OriginalPouzar

Cool value add.

Honestly, why do you take so much enjoyment in decreasing the enjoyment of others?

Sometimes you engage in real hockey discussion and add value but at least half the time you are just trolling and intentionally decreasing the enjoyment of others. I don’t understand why.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

He’s just trying to *intice you into his small world of trolldom. Stop taking the bait.

*I know. 😂😂😂

Last edited 2 months ago by Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville
Harpers Hair

If you’re interested in value…watch the following clip.

You’ll have to scroll down to the bottom to watch McDonough, who is 6’3″ 190, start about 20 feet behind the Merrimack D and race to to beat him to the puck, outraces him and scores into the empty net.

Big men who have wheels and can score like this have tremendous value.

https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-prospects-tracker-hoglanders-sweet-sendoff

Harpers Hair

While you’re there…stay for the Hoglander between the legs goal…magic!

Last edited 2 months ago by Harpers Hair
Material Elvis

Reminds me of Linus Omark a bit. Great hands and high skill. Lack of defensive ability will be an issue with Travis Green. Hoglander’s coach called him out in that article for two neutral zone turnovers and a need to improve defensive play. Fancy goal, though.

Harpers Hair

Hoglander ends his SHL career with a +7.

Savoie is currently +1 playing at a much lower level.

jp

Is Hoglander heading to play in Utica after the Jrs?

teamblue

What did Hoglander’s +/- in his 18 year old season end up at? 21 games vs 6 games if you want to compare apples to oranges.
I’ve seen my grandma troll her crib club better than that attempt. Be better man

OriginalPouzar

So now we are comparing the plus minutes of 19 year old (days from 20) 2019 2nd round picks vs. 18 year old 2020 4th round picks in across leagues?

Wild stuff and a bigger fail than my front squat form.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Material Elvis

Maybe he’s the next Brogan Rafferty, maybe not. But that highlight was just an empty net goal scored on a defenseman who got caught flat footed at the offensive blue line. Nothing special. The defenseman likely got an earful from the coach back on the bench (they were screaming at him to get moving).

tsunami

Big men who have wheels and score… like Colborne you mean ???

pts2pndr

He may have made a keystroke error ie incite but you knew that. Obviously your parents never taught you manners or you were a slow learner!

Harpers Hair

He has been so busy pumping the tires of Kessetlerumble, I thought he needed some perspective.

His boy is exactly two months younger than McDonough but then he moves the goalposts to Savoie who plays on a different team and in a different conference.

Savoie is looking very good but he’s scoring at a diminished rate.

jp

Savoie is looking very good but he’s scoring at a diminished rate.

Huh?

tsunami

strange indeed… Oilers fan discussing Oilers prospects on an Oilers blog… outrageous

OriginalPouzar

Its tough to figure out what the Oilers may do with the extra potential 7 spots without the league and players having finalized the cap (and related implications).

This may also effect Bear and what he signs for – and Holland is like waiting for some sort of intel on the final cap mechanics of the RTP to finalize the Bear contract.

Unless there is cap relief in connection with the 3 potential expanded roster spots, I don’t think the Oilers will be able to take advantage of those spots.

Depending on how much Bear signs for and how Holland is able to manage the cap pre-LTIR for Klef, the Oilers are essentially at the cap. They don’t have room for 24, 25, 26 players on the roster unless there is cap relief for the expanded spots and I’m not sure there will be.

Now, the taxi squad would be extra players that don’t effect the cap but will the NHL allow teams to fill a taxi squad, cap-free, if they don’t fill the expanded roster spots? I would guess that answer would be yes but lets not forget that these players will, essentially, be in the AHL for the purposes of having to clear waivers, etc.

If I presume that Lagesson is 7D and Haas and Chiasson are 13/14F (which keeps Khaira, Neal, Archie on the roster), I would say the taxi squad would be:

– Bouchard
– Benson
– Lennstrom
– Nygard

Bouchard and Benson don’t have to clear waiver and are definitely NHL roster options (Bouchard will for sure play)

Nygard would need to clear waivers.

The team will 100% need access to both Lagesson and Bouchard – they are 4LD and 4RD and I have no doubt in my mind that Bouchard will play many NHL games this year.

In the normal course, Bouchard would be assigned to the Bake and called up when the injury on the right side occurs but, of course, that’s not an option and I see him on the taxi squad waiting for that opportunity. Not playing games is not idea but he’s been playing the last few months so I’m not overly concerned.

What this set-up should allow for is some load management – even with a fully healthy d-corp, the could give Larsson the odd night off and insert Bouchard.

The issue there would be, if Bouchard is on the taxi squad, in order for him to play, he’d need to be added to the active roster and his cap would be included – they may need to remove someone from the active roster to fit that in – would likely require waiving someone….

OriginalPouzar

Nygard and Lennstrom on their way back to Canada.

No Jesse or Laggeson yet.

I think Lavoie is staying and am not sure what their plan is with McLeod (as per my earlier post, with him not really being an roster/expanded roster/taxi squad option).

Of course, Berglund is staying and Kemp is staying and Sammy is committed for the season in the KHL.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Any updates on Kemp since he’s joined Lavoie?

OriginalPouzar

As far as performance or return to Canada?

On the second point, he’s committed to the year in Vasby (which is just fine as the AHL isn’t starting until Feburary, if it does).

As far as performance, I know he had a great first game, played like 23 minutes and got an assist on a Lavoie goal.

Haven’t really kept up on him over the last week as the team has been gettingkilled.

Looks like he was 2nd pairing yesterday with apx 16 minutes, -2 in a 6-2 loss.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Was thinking about recent results. Thanks!

OriginalPouzar

As far a training camp roster, I’m confident that Bear will be signed and can’t imagine Lagesson not being there.

I wonder if McLeod will be at camp or if he’ll stay in Europe. He’s not really a legit NHL option quite yet and the AHL if February at the earliest.

OriginalPouzar

I remember the Slepy vs. Caggiula battle quite clearly – a definite thought among this community that Caggiula was given the greater opportunity by Coach McLellan – moved up the lineup to play with McDavid whereas Slepy toiled in the bottom six.

If I remember correctly, the verbal on Slepy was solid coming off the playoff run and he was in the discussion for a top six winger spot but he got hurt in camp and missed the beginning of the season – the opportunity closed and door never really opened again.

It would have been nice to be able to re-sign Anton this off-season – he is an elite KHL player but who knows if it would translate at all to the NHL as a 3LW or middle six LW.

Slepy or Ennis?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I liked me some Sleppy, but I’d take Ennis if that were the proposal.

Ennis plays more of a well rounded game. He’s a veteran who knows where to go, and when, and consistently scores points. Both boxcars and rates. It’s actually a little surprising his salary is “only” $1M, considering his production.

Elgin R

Data from QuantHockey for the last full season (2018/19) for ESP/60 scoring (approximate values):

46th (1st line player) – 2.39
140th (2nd line player) – 1.51
233rd (3rd line player) – 1.07

Yamamoto: even with regression, should cover first-line usage of 2.39
Kahun: ESP/60 (2018/19) = 1.97 (119th), so should cover 2nd line
JP: maybe exceed average 2nd-line output playing on the 3rd line
Nygard: When does he get in, and on what line?

Quality options for Tippet to mix and match

wolf8888

Sir Lowetide, do you really not expect Bear at training camp or is he just omitted because his contract is not signed yet? Has anyone heard any updates at all regarding his contract?

defmn

He’s been gifted to the Kraken to take on Neal’s contract, Sekera’s buyout & Lucic’s retained salary.

Did you miss yesterday’s comment section? 😉

wolf8888

haha. Unfortunately I did read that!

Harpers Hair

It may be too late for that.
I saw some speculation yesterday that Milan Lucic has agreed to waive his NMC to allow the Kraken to select him with the Flames retaining salary and including a draft pick to get rid of the contract.

jp

I speculate the Kraken will do the same with Neal, except the draft pick will be 2 rounds lower than the Flames give up. You saw it here first.

Harpers Hair

The Lucic contract would be much more palatable for the Kraken.

It was front loaded so he is only owed $5M and $4M in the final two years.

If Calgary retains, say $2M and Edmonton picks up $750K, the actual cost to the Kraken is much reduced as is the cap hit.

Neal is owed the full $5.75 for the same two seasons.

jp

But Neal is the better player.

And I did say ‘do the same with Neal’ regarding retained salary.

Harpers Hair

To make it “the same” from the Kraken’s point of view, the Oilers would need to retain the maximum of $2.875M.

Considering they are already paying $750K to Lucic, that’s a cap hit of $3.625 to two players who are not playing for them while Calgary is only incurring a $2M cap hit.

defmn

Neal or Lucic to Seattle is a long, long shot imo. More fan based hope than reality.

jp

“To make it “the same” from the Kraken’s point of view, the Oilers would need to retain the maximum of $2.875M.

Considering they are already paying $750K to Lucic, that’s a cap hit of $3.625 to two players who are not playing for them while Calgary is only incurring a $2M cap hit.”

I meant the same from the Oilers/Flames perspective, you forgot the ‘Neal is a better player’ part. And sunk cost (Oilers retained $ on Lucic) has literally no bearing on any move going forward.

The Flames would be retaining $2M and adding a 2nd (say) to move Lucic. The Oilers would be retaining $2M and adding a 4th to move Neal. If course as others have noted it’s extremely unlikely the Kraken would be interested in either of those players/deals.

Which is where the real advantage, Oilers, comes in. If/when Neal stops scoring at a 25 goal pace Holland can buy him out. Lucic is extremely likely to continue costing the Flames $6M in cap space for the full duration of his deal.

Cassandra

Why would the Kraken take on either Lucic or Neal?

The cost of one year of Marleau was a first round draft pick. Given the flat cap, the cost will have only gone up.

The floor for the Kraken to take Lucic or Neal is a first round pick per year of remaining contract.

And it doesn’t matter which is the better player, neither is going to be playing in the NHL next season.

Harpers Hair

Very different situations.

Marleau had a cap hit of $6.25M and the Leafs couldn’t retain any because they needed the cap space to sign Marner.

If Calgary retains $2M the cap hit of Lucic is only $3.25 million for Seattle and the cash only $4M over two years.

Obviously the Flames would need to send a significant sweetener but it would be nowhere near a first round pick.

How do you expect both Lucic and Neal to be out of the league next season?

Cassandra

This is plum crazy. The cost of taking Lucic would be multiple first round picks.

Not only do you get Lucic, you don’t get whomever you would have taken instead. So you need to pay Seattle to take Lucic and you have to pay Seattle to not take another player.

Seattle’s cap space is a huge asset. There is no reason for them to waste it on Lucic without getting something significant in return. And taking Lucic as part of the expansion draft is wasting the cap space and the expansion pick.

defmn

Yup. I fully expect Lucic to waive his NMC in order to help out the Flames but I cannot envision why Seattle would choose him.

Darth Tu

Cassandra, you’re completely correct. Even with retention, the Flames would have to give up at least 2 years first round draft picks to make taking Lucic worth their while.

Seattle will have watched what Vegas did and look for ways to maximise their ability right out the gate. Especially walking into a flat cap situation. The Kraken would be completely insane if they started taking on every bad contract each team has. Heck, they hit the cap limit pretty quickly if they do that.

defmn

Nothing is too late until the day of the expansion draft. Until then everything is rumours.

flyfish1168

Phlegms can’t protect all 3 bennet,mangiapane, or dube. I would tell phlegms the only way we take lucic is if you retain salary to equal the one you want to lose and we get your 1st rounder. Case closed Look at Vegas they are in cap hell. So there is no good reason to take lucic when there is a skill and a cheaper player to take.

jp

I’d expect Bear signed but Holland does appear to be playing some hardball with him. And it’s true, the team doesn’t really *need* him with Barrie and Larsson there and Bouchard pushing..

wolf8888

I think that’s debatable. Bear has proven he can do the job. Bouchard hasn’t yet.

jp

Oh no question. I’m not saying there wouldn’t be a drop off from Bear, just that there are other options so his position is weakened.

wolf8888

It’s possible but it seems it’s just a matter of time. I guess we’ll see soon!

jp

A Bear signing? Yes, I agree he’ll be signed soon, but his bargaining position isn’t particularly strong depending what kind of money he’s asking for.

pts2pndr

That would very much be the way past management would have looked at it. Going into the season even with Bear was iffy without him I would think it would be downright scary.

jp

I don’t know. Barrie/Larsson/Bear sounds like a strong RH side to me. The LH side is the scary part. And I agree there’s not much cover if it’s just Barrie/Larsson/Bouchard, but the first 2 are established top 4 D and the 3rd looks by all accounts ready for a full time job. Just saying that Holland has the hammer here.

pts2pndr

I would agree but there is the Larsson shoulder thing and the fact that Bear doesn’t have a lot of experience. I am of the belief that the coach will run Barrie with Jones and Bear with Nurse thus leaving the most experienced duo of Russel and Larsson for Pk and Hard minutes matchup. There is a lot to like about this group but in my mind a lot of uncertainties as well. Bouchard and Lagesson as cover are also lacking experience. It will be an interesting year and go a long way to determining the D moving forward.

jp

Yes, sure. I hope, and fully expect, all of Bear, Barrie, Larsson and Bouchard are available to Tippett this season.

And agreed, this season will have a huge impact on who stays and goes among Oilers D going forward.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t agree at all that the team doesn’t need Bear because of Bouchard’s premise.

Barrie helps a bit with top four 5 on 5 minutes but Bear played apx 36% of his TOI against elites last season, he was the 1RD for the year, and Bouchard won’t help in that regard.

Not to mention the PK – already lost Klefbom’s PK minutes, don’t want to lose Bear’s PK minutes on top.

Of course, injury cover – without Bear, there wouldn’t be a single RD available to fill in with injury. Either Jones or Russell would be moving over and both have shown to be far less effective on their off-sides.

jp

I’m sorry that you and apparently many others took the ‘doesn’t really need him’ part of

‘I’d expect Bear signed but Holland does appear to be playing some hardball with him. And it’s true, the team doesn’t really *need* him with Barrie and Larsson there and Bouchard pushing…’

so literally, in a comment about Holland squeezing him on a contract.

It was simply intending to reflect how much less critical Bear is to the team since Barrie has been added (while clearly still very important). Holland has a pretty good argument that “the team could get by without you” if Bear’s contract expectations don’t line up with his own.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
teamblue

It’s one way to avoid a sophomore slump.

jp

Ha, I suppose so.

€√¥£€^$

This is just the confirmed training camp roster. Bear doesn’t have a contract yet, so can’t be at camp. It is possible that he is in E-town skating with the group though.

Not sure how that plays out, he may have to wait for the 1st day of the season when Klefbom is placed on LTIR so they are cap compliant.

jp

“Not sure how that plays out, he may have to wait for the 1st day of the season when Klefbom is placed on LTIR so they are cap compliant.”

That’s funny, I was just thinking this morning how the Oilers could still sign someone for up to $2.5M (in addition to Bear for the assumed $1.5M).

I know many don’t agree, but I don’t think cap is so much of an issue for Holland.

It’s also possible Holland is waiting on some other signing(s) to see how much he can comfortably give Bear.

slopitch

The Klefbom contract is really a wildcard at the moment. I wonder if we see a trade in the next bit followed by a report that his shoulder has improved in the last 4 months. As an asset Klefbom doesnt have a lot of value when injured and given there is likely a cheaper option available via UFA.

All hard to say, I wish we knew more about his injury. I do think one more signing is coming and Bear gets say 1-1.2.

jp

Do you mean a Klefbom trade? I agree he wouldn’t have much trade value since he’s injured with an uncertain recovery.

I really don’t expect him back this season though. Holland said “99.9%” he’s out for the season. My take from that is the player said “I will not play this season” and Holland is leaving the 0.1% in case the player unexpectedly changes his mind.

Klefbom’s long-term prognosis is uncertain but I don’t think Holland or anyone should be expecting or planning for him coming back this season.

We’ll see if any other shoes drop before the season starts though!

OriginalPouzar

The recent report from Holland (I can’t remember if it was through Matheson or Spector) was that the shoulder is feeling better but Klefbom is targeting a September return.

defmn

I believe you are correct. With Bear signed at $1.4 M (arbitrary # I picked out of the aether) the Oilers are $1,492,491 over the cap with Klef still on the books.

If the team sent Yamomoto and any other player they don’t think will get claimed on waivers (or hope they do get claimed on waivers 😉 ) that will make them compliant on Day One at which time they put Klef on LTIR freeing up his $4,167,000. That gives them about $2.6 M of which I think Holland wants to hold on to at least a $1 M. for all sorts of good and prudent reasons. Signing a guy for $2.6 M only adds $1.6M though since he would presumably replace somebody making around $1 M.

I think what Holland and the other GM’s are waiting for is clarification on how the proposed expanded rosters would affect all of this.

jp

“I believe you are correct. With Bear signed at $1.4 M (arbitrary # I picked out of the aether) the Oilers are $1,492,491 over the cap with Klef still on the books.”

I think you’re missing one small point. The Oilers roster (Capfriendly) lists them with $242k in cap but with already 23 players (15F/6D). Signing Bear puts them at 24, so sending Nygard (say) down gets them back to 23 players (14F and 7D). So only Yamamoto (rather than Yamamoto + one other) would need to be assigned to get compliant for day 1, assuming no other moves.

Given the above, I think the Oilers could actually sign a player for about $3.1M and still get compliant for day 1 (the signing would knock 1 player (Haas?) off the roster and then 2 passed through waivers to get compliant (Chiasson and Neal?).

The problem with going up above $3M on a signing is that eats into the cap cushion that Holland clearly wants/needs. OP has been adamant that $1.5M is needed, based on Holland mentioning that number.

But accounting for 15Fs on the current ‘roster’, and assuming Bear at $1.4 or $1.5M AND a $1.5M cushion, the Oilers could still spend $2.6M on another player. Pretty sure!

That’s a chunk of dough in the current environment. It’s conceivable that gets a guy like Granlund for the top of the lineup. I’d more expect part of it to go to another C (Haula, Soderberg) or maybe a LD (possibly Vatanen who’s RH but listed as LD/RD, I have no idea how much LD he’s actually played). Or maybe a trade for 4C or 2/3LD? Or to Bear for a multi-year extension?

Obviously ‘nothing’ is also a possibility 🙂

Crazy Pedestrian

Actually, the oilers are currently $242k OVER the cap. So they may need to still trade away someone to fit Bear into the cap, even if they send someone down.

jp

You are correct. I made a typo but I think my calculations were correct.

On Capfriendly: 23 players today without Bear and $242 over.
-Sign Bear at $1.4M – $1.642M over the cap (and 24 players).
-Remove Nygard from the roster list to get back to 23 players – $767k over.
-Assign Yamamoto to get compliant for day 1 – $127k in cap. Compliant with a 22 man roster.

From there you could make a signing:
-Granlund at $3M (for argument’s sake), replaces Haas ($915K). Basically a $2.1M difference in salary.
-Passing 2 of Neal and Chiasson (or Khaira) through waivers for day 1 opens up $2.15M to get compliant. (with 20 players on the roster)
-Klefbom to LTIR – $4.167M (ish) opens up.
-Bring Yamamoto, Neal and Chiasson back up ($3.05M in total) and there is $1 to $1.1M in cap remaining.

That’s why I only signed someone for $2.6M above, to leave the full $1.5M cap cushion.

I did make one mistake, I forgot that Klefbom will need to be replaced (Lagesson or Bouchard) for a full 23 man roster. So if Holland wants to run with 23 players AND keep a $1.5M cap cushion, a signing would need to be max $1.8 or $1.9M.

But, there is no need to trade anyone, pretty sure.

defmn

Yup. That will work as well.

What we don’t know is how much reserve Holland is truly comfortable with?

What, if any, weakness he sees needing a significant upgrade?

Does he have a goalie trade in his back pocket for later in the season?

What I don’t think Holland knows – and is waiting to find out – are the details of how extra players or taxi squad affects all of this. I suspect most GM’s are waiting for that and then we will see some signings.

jp

Yeah all this is true. And in particular the nature of the extra players/taxi squad will likely have a huge impact on how Holland proceeds.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I managed to get compliant for day one on CF by simply sending down Lagesson, Nygard and Haas.

Sign Bear for $1.4M and there’s $147k in cap space, running a 21 man roster (Klef on IR and Archibald scratched).

That leaves basically $4M to work with after assigning Klef to LTIR.

Call up Lagesson, that’s aprox $3.3M remaining.

So that means a free agent signing (or trade where we take on salary) tops out at about $1.8-2M.

Taking a stab at potential UFAs around that range:
– Athanasiou
– Haula
– Brassard
– Grabner
– Duclair
– Goalie?

Granlund would be an absolute steal, but not likely.

defmn

I don’t think you want to send down Lagesson,Haas or Nygard unless you don’t want them anymore.

Send down players you would be happy to lose but unlikely to be taken like Neal, for example.

But you still have to think about where you would play those guys. To me the suspect spots are 1RW, 2LD, 2G & 4C.

We might be alright but we don’t know.

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
pts2pndr

actually putting Neal on waivers would be perfect. It should allow any other player and it would give him a break. That way you get a fresh Neal back in the lineup. Neal has value when used with some scheduled games off. Win win the way I see it.

OriginalPouzar

Lagesson, Nygard and Haas are all subject to waivers. I expect Nygard is 15F heading in to camp and likely waived/assigned subject to him winning a battle or an injury but I’m not sure that Holland wants to expose and risk each of those guys.

He might and/or maybe there is little chance of any of them being taken but we don’t know.

I don’t think he’d “do it to the veterans” but I’d prefer he waive Chiasson and Neal – of course there is no risk of losing Neal on waivers and highly unlikely Chiasson gets taken and, in any event, given the cap space a claim would open up, that would be a coveted situation (even though both can have a role in this team – their contracts are bloated – Chiasson’s in the current market is bloated, Neal is just bloated).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Also @defmn

Yes, that’s all fair.

JJ, Neal, Chaisson and Smith could all be sent down with nominal salary replacements coming back for a paper transaction. Of course KY is exempt so would be another option if necessary.

My main point is that its doable without requiring a trade.

And, pending walking around money requirements, we could be in the mix for a decent roster addition (assuming Kelf doesn’t play this season).

Adding the likes of Brassard, Grabner or Haula would look pretty enticing on paper.

Last edited 2 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Further to this, I sent down Neal/JJ/Chaisson and brought McLeod back with the Euro three (WL/GH/JN) to fill out the roster to 22 bodies. Had $23k in space which makes LTIR compliance on day one theoretically doable.

It does get messy after Klefbom is moved to LTIR and the paper transactions are undone.

Knowing more about the provisions for potentially expanded rosters and the resulting cap implications will settle a lot of questions.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not so sure that McLeod doesn’t stay overseas for the season (or at least until the AHL starts) – he isn’t a legit lineup option.

jp

Yup, that’s essentially what I did too, except I sent Yamamoto down to get compliant instead of Haas.

$2M could certainly buy you a player that could help this team, I don’t think there’s much question of that.

defmn

I didn’t go by CapFriendly’s list. I have my own. 😉

Assuming a full 23 man roster (which is still an open question) of

Nuge, McDavid, Kassian, Kahun, Draisaitl, Yamomoto, Ennis, Turris, Puljujarvi, Neal, Khaira, Haas, Chiasson, & Archibald (14 players) that totals $47,409,166 – no bonuses.

Nurse, Jones, KRussell, Lagesson, Barrie, Larsson & Bear at $1.4 plus Klefbom comes to $24,658,666 (no bonuses included).

Koskine and Neal add another $6,000,000 plus $4,583,333 plus half of last years overage at $341,326 all adds up to $82,992,491 according to my spreadsheet.

That puts them $1,492,491 over the cap.

Cap friendly has an extra forward but no Lagesson and no Bear so that is how I did my calculation.

jp

Hmmm, I don’t like discrepancies 🙂

After some thinking I guess the difference is you’re including Lagesson. I wasn’t accounting for him in the final number either but I think that’s the only difference in your numbers and mine.

You’re listing a full 23 plus Klefbom, so the Oilers could potentially assign 4 bodies to get compliant for opening day, I believe.

I think we’re certainly getting to almost the same place in the end.

defmn

Bad luck for Bear. Remember when suggestions of a bridge deal for $3.5 M were met with derision as too low?

jp

Yup, tough pill to swallow for quite a few players I imagine (of course that extends well beyond the hockey world too).

Harpers Hair

Are you taking potential performance bonuses into account?

defmn

You’re funny.

Harpers Hair

Yamamoto and Bouchard are eligible for performance bonuses.

If OP is right, Bouchard will easily win the Calder Trophy.

defmn

Which is what I indicated in my original post. That I knew that but didn’t include them since they are not necessarily part of what Holland needs to calculate to start the season.

OriginalPouzar

There is absolutely nothing that I have ever posted the implied Bouchard will win the Calder this year. Stop spewing crap solely to encite.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Crazy Pedestrian

Actually, I was wondering this too. Didn’t someone mention that if Yamamoto was “paper transactioned” to attempt to clear cap space, that when he is put back onto the roster his potential- full bonus amount is automatically counted against the cap? Meaning that Yamamoto can’t really be sent down to clear cap if you’re planning on bringing him back onto the roster.

Last edited 2 months ago by Crazy Pedestrian
defmn

Don’t know but Neal, Chiasson get the job done.

Yeti

Sir Lowetide? Wow, that’s some long overdue royal recognition for you LT. I hope the Queen was gentle with that sword.

wolf8888

Thank you SIR! 🙂