There may be one or two additions to the roster, but Ken Holland’s 2020 offseason appears to be winding down. Sign Ethan Bear, bring in Slater Koekkoek (hockey teams need a Dutch guy) and then start finding lines and pairings with chem. Oilers fans are down on the roster (from what I see) but for me this year’s model is damn close to balanced. Only the goaltending keeps you from seeing the balance photo (it is beautiful).
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett has more options now thanks to versatile Oilers forwards
- Lowetide: 7 big questions facing the Oilers heading into next season
- Lowetide: Danger, heartbreak ahead for Oilers, Ethan Bear in contract situation
- Lowetide: Tyler Tullio is the latest Oilers draft pick to make an impression
- Lowetide: What if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t sign with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Left-side logjam will force the Oilers to make a choice, and perhaps a sacrifice
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s 2020 Oilers offseason report card
- Lowetide: Theodor Lennstrom is the Oilers’ latest European bet on defence
- Lowetide: Why Anton Forsberg could win the Oilers’ backup job in 2020-21
- Lowetide: The 2020-21 Oilers finally deploying elite talent in the right places
- Jonathan Willis: Team Draft vs. Team Trade: Which collection of all-time Oilers is better?
- Lowetide: Seattle Kraken expansion mock draft 5.0: Who could the Oilers lose?
- Lowetide: Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success
- Lowetide: Projected training camp roster for the 2020-21 Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Will the Oilers repeat their power play magic in 2021?
- Lowetide: How many ‘peak seasons’ can Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
LINES
I mentioned these lines on the Lowdown yesterday morning, suspect most of you will have a tweak or two but the personnel are basically the same.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
- Dominik Kahun—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
- Tyler Ennis—Kyle Turris—Jesse Puljujarvi
- James Neal—Jujhar Khaira—Alex Chiasson
- Extras: Josh Archibald, Gaetan Haas
That’s how I see the forwards, although a trade seems likely (Archibald is going to penalty kill, along with Khaira, Oil need two of three fourth liners who can PK) for special teams purposes. Kahun will get a long audition on the Draisaitl line and there’s a good chance that works. Some worry about Kassian but the potential replacements (Puljujarvi) need more time, perhaps half a season. I would be shocked to see Puljujarvi on a line with 29 or 97 to start the season. The only way it happens, imo, is if one of the two centers takes on a mentor role, and that didn’t seem to be possible last time these men played together.
PAIRINGS
If the club signs Koekkoek we might see a battle for third pair LH side between the Dutchman, Kris Russell and William Lagesson. For now here’s what I perceive the pairings might look like:
- Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
- Caleb Jones—Adam Larsson
- Kris Russell—Tyson Barrie
- Extra: William Lagesson
Tippett can run Nurse-Barrie but my guess is Tippett trusts Bear alongside Nurse enough to keep the pairing together. There’s an enormous negative placed on Nurse by many Oilers fans, but his 2019-20 season was rock solid with Bear.
Barrie’s ideal match might be Jones, but for me Larsson is a better partner for the young lefty, they played together down the stretch and had some success. Ideally, Edmonton signed Koekoeke and runs him with Barrie.
STARTER
Tippett is a fine coach (imo) but he can’t give Mike Smith too long a leash this season. I think Koskinen will get the lion’s share of the starts in 2020-21.
- Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)
Opening night for the Oilers is January 13 at Rogers Place against the Vancouver Canucks. I’ll bet Koskinen gets the call.
ACES
Four additional players will be part of a ‘mobile AHL unit’ and everyone has different opinions on who should make the list.
- Anton Forsberg
- Evan Bouchard
- Alan Quine
- Joakim Nygard
I don’t think there’s room for Patrick Russell or Tyler Benson, and do believe some of the aces will have to clear waivers. Your input welcome.
FESTIVUS!
Although I love the Festivus episode on Seinfeld and have laughed at it for years, running an Oilers blog means a day devoted to the airing of grievances tends to be fairly long and filled with multiple reasons for outrage.
If I had to list one grievance with the current team as it stands, the trade of Ryan Strome remains baffling. A solid two-way center who had chem with Jesse Puljujarvi, I expect the young Finn would be farther along by now if not for the Strome deal.
If I have one issue with current management, the signing of Mike Smith for another year would be it. It reminds me of Whitey Herzog, a man I respect a great deal, when he would pull his starter in the sixth inning because he wanted a lefty-lefty matchup. It’s brave, it might be the right move, but if you’re wrong it leaves one vulnerable to massive criticism. I do not believe Holland will die on this hill though. If Smith can’t deliver, the club will make a move.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s our second to last show before Christmas, and we’ll have a ball this morning 10-noon on TSN1260. At 10:20 Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will regale us with stories of Jupiter and Saturn, plus the value of Darnell Nurse in the coming year. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will chat about the NBA season and a little on the NFL, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Best of the season to you!
Leage will respond to the Provinces’ request for additional testing measures today.
New for The Athletic: Why fans should expect an Oilers playoff berth in Canadian division
https://theathletic.com/2279830/2020/12/24/oilers-playoff-berth-canadian-division/
I will be interested to see how you get the Oilers in the playoffs when they lose Forsberg on recall waivers…….
https://www.tsn.ca/report-ryan-miller-re-signs-one-year-deal-with-anaheim-ducks-1.1568309
https://www.tsn.ca/new-jersey-devils-sign-rfa-g-mackenzie-blackwood-to-three-year-deal-1.1567971
There is a lot to hate about the extra cash on smith’s deal. I just don’t get it…Is he worth remotely close to twice miller or 0.8 million less than blackwood at this point? These are the comparable type signings in time period.
So why did Peter Chiarelli, (born August 5, 1964) a former Canadian ice hockey executive and former player, trade him? What was the real reason? What do ppl think? Or know by now?
I always thought it was because Chiarelli had Spooner in Boston, and Spooner was pretty good there. What was the real reason?
Frank Seralli with a copy of the letter from health officials to the league.
https://www.tsn.ca/talent/provinces-provide-roadmap-to-potential-green-light-for-nhl-s-canadian-teams-1.1568375
@trollingbobby
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29m
Replying to @frank_seravalli
6000 cases in Canada today, were shutting hockey down
22000 cases in Texas today, were letting 5000 fans in to watch your @DallasStars
The medical officers of health are proposing protocols that could potentially “out” players by mandatory testing of cohabitants and/or close contacts.
Living out of a hotel in Edmonton is probably better than living out of a hotel in some random American city.
The players are going to have a tough decision to make.
The chief medical officers seem like they are going to hang together rather than get picked off one by one.
They’re union folk, tis the way. I’d expect nothing less.
Now they’re leveraging a mathematical peak that will eventually betray their position, but lucky for the CMOs the clock is on their side and it’s late in the third.
Of course if someone would just change the Cycle threshold standard that would solve the problem too.
The NHL announcement indicated flexibility.They may need it for the first month.
The cycle CMOs are focused on is the post Christmas peaks in a few weeks and seeing if hospitals will be ready 2 weeks from there. Right now Quebec growth is the biggest concern.
An interesting dynamic is Henry signing and Hinshaw as lead author. Ontario does not have the same unified CMO model as BC and AB and those 2 CMOs work together a lot. BC and AB may be on board or off board together this round.
Looking the roster over on CapFriendly (who are these guys again?)…
Damn we have an old roster compared to what I’m used to seeing. I mean I know it was up last year too but when was the last time we were this old? Gotta be at least ten years.
Looks like they need to start the season In the US and when Canada is ready the Canadian division can start an even shorter season
According to……?
Sounds like they are still discussing and negotiating agreeable protocols – at least from what I’ve read.
According to the start date that is fast approaching
I see almost zero chance of a staggered start.
The unknown bump from Christmas is approaching faster Let’s hope the worst is in the rear view mirror as the start date gets closer.
One of my favourites back in the day….
With travel daily testing isn’t automatically enough as MLB demonstrated. But I’m somewhat optimistic the league’s medical consultants and the PHOs can identify an overall approach that effectively connects layered testing to player movement.
If not, I can’t see players agree to a long bubble. But if the choice is to wait or shift South a one month bubble followed by a short break might look better.
There are 5 players currently signed past the 21/22 season. Holland will completely shape this team for the 2nd half of McDavids contract.
Unfortunately, Holland started by digging the cap hole deeper with the Kassian extension blunder. He started with an own goal.
Per Dreger:
Sources say the 5 provinces have requested additional testing procedures, or have asked the NHL to consider a “bubble” model. If bubble isn’t an option for NHL, sources say a delay to start of season has also been suggested. The NHL is working on a response. Ongoing discussions.
LeBrun responded that there is little interest in a bubble and more discussions
————————-
Not sure what the additional testing procedures would be – I thought it was out there that there would be daily testing but maybe I made that up in my head.
No update on Dach – needs more X-Rays says Tourigny (per Rishaug).
Oilers will play back to back games 11 times.
https://www.tsn.ca/condensed-schedule-comes-at-a-dangerous-time-for-edmonton-oilers-1.1568200?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true
Travis Yost…….
On a quick look, only 3 times is their travel between games which is helpful.
I bet the happiest moments of your week are when you find an article that is bad news for the Oilers that you can ‘share’ with us all.
Yost shows how much he knows about the Oilers by reporting that Rodrigue being overseas for the year really restricts our options for dealing with the back to backs. LOL
That was a pretty flat statement of fact, wasn’t it?
How many B2B for the Nucks? And other Cdn teams?
It’s all in the story I linked to.
Vancouver has 7.
?
Funny the Canucks were spared the B2Bs while all the other Cdn teams have between 9-11.
And oof, not having waiver exempt Olivier Rodrigue available is going to sting.
It actually might make a difference but it’s a long shot.
Koskinen pulls a groin…Smith comes in and shits the bed like he did in the play in.
The Oilers recall Forsberg but he’s claimed on waivers.
Who drives the Zamboni?
That scenario applies pretty much evenly to 31 teams. Is anyone going to carry 4 goalies?
And Forsberg being claimed on waivers on recall seems unlikely, since that’s not how the rules work.
Recall waivers are no longer a thing.
What was Holland thinking?
Balls were dropped. That much we know.
There’s really only one place Nicholson can go from here. Audit. I mean social media knows now. It’s over, his hands are tied. They have to audit. Hire KPMG, Oprah and Scotty Bowman and get the party started. Make sure these kinds of process errors never happen again.
It’s true, this all may force them to recall Rodrigue to NA. He’ll have to play in Wichita per the pre-Covid plan. 14 days away, but waivers exempt.
Seriously? If that’s the case I would immediately petition the League with “in the interests of reduced travel, and player protection, recalls from wherever they’re currently playing including Europe should be permitted without first returning to a minor N. American League for season’s start.” Which considering what normal humans are abiding seems asinine.
Apologies to the ECHL etc but f*ck you guys in this instance.
Holloway centering the 1st pk unit.
Not a great first impression for Holloway. 😉 4 seconds and in the penalty box.
Holloway takes a holding penalty about 4 seconds in to his first shift….. ha!
Ha, Edmonton plays Toronto four times in 11 days. Jan 20-30. Followed by 4 games vs Ottawa in two weeks.
This season is gonna be great
I see Bear starting as the 3 RHD this year. How many times did Holland say the word veteran in this weeks interview?
Each of Barrie, Larsson and Bear have shown to be able to play top 4 minutes/competition at even strength with some level of success. Bear with the least amount of success but, of course, he did so as a rookie NHLer.
Given three legit top 4 RD, Coaches T. and P. will have all sorts of options for 5 on 5 deployment.
If Neal is in fact on the 4th line, He should have been bought out. That 4 mil in cap would go a long way in bringing a top 6 f that we really need.
Since last season opener, they’ve added Kahun, Puljujarvi, Ennis and Yamamoto who can all possibly fit in the top 6.
I’m pretty happy with that group of forwards. Add in Nuge and Kassian and compare this team with last years.
If bought out, I would rather they got a better 1B goalie and signed Bear longer term. 2.5*3 or 3*4.
I would rather keep Neal this year than pay 6 years *2 mill plus the Lucic leftovers.
Maybe that was the plan if they got Markstrom?
The buyout window had already passed.
If they didn’t feel they could use that money effectively today, then it makes sense to burn another year off the buyout. You never know what opportunities could come up in the future. Could be the case that $2mil extra in 2023 is worth $4mil on the books today.
Heck this wouldn’t even be a thought if we had the $3.8 mil in already bought out money available to us right now.
No, no, no – in my opinion. I don’t want to extend that contract for 3 years with a substantial cap hit.
Just as we start to get out of dead cap money they start to add more?
Nope, no thank you.
Vastly overpaid is Neal but he’s still able to provide positive value to the team in certain areas.
His cap hit is dead whether you like it or not
The question isnt are we going to buy him out, but when are we going to buy him out
We disagree on both those points. Could $4M in savings buy more? Of course. Is it worth it to tack on 3 year of a $2M cap hit? That is definitely debatable and, given where the cap will be during those three years, I don’t think its is and, from his verbal, neither does the General Manger.
We’ve had this conversation before, we don’t agree and neither of us will change each other’s mind.
If I was Holland I would force Bear into one year at one million.
Then I’d throw Klefbom’s money at Sami Vatanen on a one year contract and see if he bites.
Vatanen would make a good partner for Larsson and make for a pairing you could count on to play second pairing minutes.
Vatanen is a right D.
He’s a right shot, but is listed on capfriendly at least as a LD/RD. He has played some LD, though a quick look suggests the results weren’t great.
Not ideal for sure, but I do think Vatanen could help the team (if he were willing to sign for $2M or less, as OP notes). Remember the bar is ‘probably better than Russell and/or Lagesson’.
They do not have “Klefbom’s money to spend” – they could spend a portion, maybe $2M or so but this does not provide them the ability to go sign a $4M player.
While I am dubious of Kassian’s ability to be an everyday top line player, and feel his contact was an over pay the moment it was signed…
Having perused the new schedule, with multiple 3 games in a week series against the Calgary Tkachuk-istans, I predict he will be king of the City this season.
Also, Puljujarvi will get top line minutes chances for games on end, with Kassian’s inevitable suspension(s).
If we are airing grievances today, we need to talk about Kassian’s contract, irrespective of the Battle of Alberta. It was an overpay pre-Covid and looks even worse now.
And Kassian will need to avoid undisciplined penalties if he wants to be King of the City.
I couldn’t agree more. Kassian gets exactly what he wanted this year…more opportunity to bury Tkachuk into the ice for trying to take his head off last year. And when Kass plays mad, he earns every penny of that contract.
I don’t think Tkachuk is looking forward to those two weeks…I think Kass is absolutely jacked for it.
Kass shouldn’t be playing RW1 on this team though…IMO it’s a position we still need to address. Ideally, Pool earns it this year and then the two switch places in the line-up. But we might be able to address RW1 in free agency next year or at the trade deadline….we saw Holland make aggressive moves to help his team last year at the deadline, maybe he does so again this year. The “covid factor” will make these types of moves more difficult during the year, but I’d like to see another highly skilled forward or high-end goalie addition before the 2021 season starts. It would take this team to a scary-good level.
I’m also a big fan of less guys taking liberties on McD while Kass patrols the ice…I saw way less of that last year and the big guy was the reason for it. Protecting our superstar can’t be overlooked and I’m sure McD loves having him watching his back. He adds an edge to the Oilers who are generally a very “polite” team. He brings emotion to the game, that’s very valuable.
Kass is still good for this team…for now.
Kassian playing mad does not necessarily lead to him earning his contract, in my opinion. Yes, we’ve seen “mad Kassian” be a plus but, more recently, we’ve seen “mad Kassian” hurt the team with bad penalties directly leading to GWG against, etc.
Nikita Kucherov is out for the season. He is getting hip surgery. Thats a huge loss
But comes pretty close to solving their cap situation.
In the worst possible way other than maybe if they lost Hedman for the season. I assume you were being sarcastic.
Half sarcastic. The Bolts don’t need Kucherov to make the playoffs and if I understand correctly he can return after the trade deadline without cap implications. I haven’t heard yet on recovery time or severity.
It seems there is always an injury waiting to rescue teams from cap hell. This year Boychuk in NYI and now Kucherov.
He would have to wait until the end of the regular season (not just the trade deadline) to return – well, unless they found $9.5M of cap space for him.
Yes, the are rescued from cap hell but, of course, they lose a top 5 player in the world. One would think the Bolts will still make the playoffs but, still, and you never know – not to mention, if he does come back for the playoffs, while he’ll be fresh, he won’t be game ready.
Thanks. For some reason I thought the TD marked the end of cap compliance.
You were probably thinking if you were Lou Lamoriello…
Out for the regular season. Not necessarily the playoffs. No cap in the playoffs.
That would assume his hip is good to go in only 6 months
I know we are high on Koskinen on this blog, but based on previous experience, neither Holland nor Tippett agree.
Smith is their man and seems unlikely to play an understudy role. LT, prepared to either be disappointed or pleasantly surprised depending on how he performs.
When a reporter asked Tippett if McDavid and Draisaitl would be happy playing on separate lines his response was something along the lines of “they like winning better”.
I suspect the same is true of Tippett. He likes winning more than he likes Smith.
Obviously, Tippett trusts Smith but lets not forget what Coach T did, or did not do, in the play-in. After pulling Smith in game 1, he never went back to him, even with Koskinen being “meh” at best. Coach T. never went back to “his guy” and he had every excuse to do so.
There was a fairly significant change in Coach T.’s deployment in the play-in..
Now, with the schedule released, lets hope that the NHL and provinces can come to an agreement so that they can use this schedule and have each team play in their home arenas. Noone wants to got to the hub city structure!
I doubt Holland went and signed Barrie for $3.75 million with the idea that he would be the 3rd pairing D. And I doubt Barrie signed with the Oilers at a discount with that idea in mind either. No promises would have been given, but they would have discussed expectations and Tippett was likely part of those discussions. Holland is constantly referencing competition and players having to earn their spots. This indicates he is unlikely to promise anybody anything in terms of usage so ultimately he would leave it to Tippett to decide who slots where in the line up
No question Bear did very well last year, but the evidence does not indicate he is a better defenseman right now than Barrie or even as good. Even if Bear has an edge over Barrie defensively it would not be by much. Bear shows promise as a solid puck mover but Barrie, however is a long established high end, if not elite puck mover. He’s likely to be the one that Tippett will want out with either McDavid or Draisaitl’s line 5 on 5, and I suspect it will be more often Barrie and Nurse out with the McDavid line. Given the indications coming from the Oilers, (mostly from Holland) that a) they are expecting Bear will have reduced ice time this coming season and b) Nurse is expected to really step up to be the key player to fill Klebom’s role, it seems reasonable to me to project that Barrie will get a lot of time with Nurse 5 on 5, Bear could play with Nurse on the PK and Barrie will get the lion’s share on the no. 1 PP. Overall for right D, I would see Barrie with around 21-22 mpg, Larsson with 20-21 mpg and Bear 18-19 MPG.
The Oilers will run three even pairings, with roles rather than hierarchy.
Nurse Bear is the shutdown pairing.
Jones Larsson
Russell Barrie
get less difficult minutes.
Deployment will be matchup dependent.
There will be no 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing.s
Might also see Russell – Larsson in a shutdown role or Nurse – Larsson. I expect to see a number of combinations over the season but agree the TOI will be pretty close most nights.
I believe we will see a number of permeations. Barrie is not in my opinion a top pairing D. The team needs Barrie to be in the top four.Jones is not a top two D man. Bear was able to hold his own as a top two. The other option would be Nurse with Larsson but Larsson would restrict the offence. The only logical way to pair the D and keep players at their appropriate levels would seem to be Nurse Bear, Jones with Barrie as second pair and Russel Larsson as a third pairing hard match pair for PK and for extra shifts when up latter part of games. I do believe that Lagesson will supplant Russel by season end. The whole thing is dependant on Jones being able to handle second pairing left D. Koekkoek would be nice insurance.
Every post should begin this way. 🙂
Tippett will run like you stated a D by committee and go with the hot hand that evening getting the extra minutes.
I am not sure a defensive pairing can be called shutdown when last season they were on the ice for 3.2 (Bear) and 3.1 (Nurse) goals against per 60, which was good (well actually bad) for 4th and 5th worst in the NHL among defenseman who played >1000 min. And their usage was relatively high against elites but that was probably mostly while they were on with Mcdavid. They were also the top 2 point producing d 5 on 5 on the team. When healthy, Larsson is unquestionably the shutdown right D on this team.
My other concern with the group of pairings is I don’t see Russell/Barrie being a particularly good match. Barrie’s not small but he is not physical so the combination doesn’t seem like it would be good at puck recovery in down low battles nor at clearing the front of the net. I do agree that however Tippett goes, the TOI splits are likely to be more even at least on the right side, but I am anticipating that Nurse will be the clear number 1 on the left.
Barrie needs to play with McDavid as much as possible to maximize his skill set. So, by definition, those will be against better competition. That means you can’t really roll Russell with Barrie (and by extension with McDavid).
Maybe you can run Russell and Bear as a 3rd pair against soft competition. The problem with any of the existing pairings is that they all include Russell and Russell can’t make a pass out of his own end.
I see Nurse and Barrie together too and have posted about it twice before, but no one seemed in favour.
While I agree that pairings will be fluid, I think the stock or default set-up will be
Nurse Barrie
Jones Larsson
Russell Bear
Which locates someone who can actually pass on each pairing coupled with a more defensive conscience.
Likely, Jones will face the easiest minutes and have the least TOI of the six.
I think those will be the pairings too. Did I speak up earlier? (I’ve also posted them to a lukewarm reception).
I’m not at all sure about the 2nd and 3rd pairs though. I’d love to see Jones-Bear get a chance and work themselves into being the #2 pair as the year progresses. We shall see…
I agree that Nurse/Barrie is a legit option – both are proven to be legit top 4 d-men capable of playing over 30% of their TOI against elites (Nurse over 35%).
Whether we (as individuals or as a group) agree with the way or the visual aspect of how he does it, Nurse produces at evens with McDavid (more than any other Oiler d-man) and helps create offensive zone scoring chances (more than any other Oiler d-man). I anticipate the coaching staff will continue to deploy him with McDavid and, of course, as an elite rush joiner, we all can be excited about Barrie playing with McDavid.
I do see some benefit of having them on separate pairs as well – spreading out McDavid deployment and, to be honest, I do see the coaching staff starting with their familiar Nurse/Bear pair – they stuck with it all year and during the play-in..
Jones/Larsson was aces for 8 games last season.
I see Rusty having the lease total TOI/G among the D and the least 5 on 5 TOI/G.
I don’t know what to think of a Russell/Bear pairing but managing Bear’s minutes may be a real thing and, of course, both will get material PP time.
LT, I’m curious why you are so high on Koekkoek? his doesn’t seem to have played many games and his numbers don’t jump out. Are his fancy stats really strong?
They’re pretty strong. I like his even strength offense too. Also ‘pretty strong’.
Another reason to start JP on the third line is you don’t want to run into a situation in which the player gets demoted after 5-10 games, in the event of an early season slump.
Start him low in the order, and play him there for at least half a season.
I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of demoting and promoting going on this season for any player. (Different maybe in places like TO)
Might even have been part of the pitch. “Look it’s Covid. Restricted travel. California… You’re going to have to do sumthin’ real bad like steal Andrew Ference’s bike to get sent down.”
I have the following on the six man taxi squad:
Forsberg
Lennstrom
Bouchard
Nygard
Benson
P. Russell
To the extent that the AHL season starts up in February and we are a month plus in to the season with limited injuries, guys like Bouchard and Benson can be assigned to the Condors to get some games in but I think they start with the big club.
Under current restrictions, players assigned to Bakersfield would likely stay there for the duration since they would require a 14 day quarantine to return. Of course that might change at some point.
Of course, they could fly in to Calgary under the pilot project and not be subject to 14 day quarantine (have to stay in Alberta though for, I believe 10 or 14 days) – with that said, they would be subject to the NHL protocol (which will likely be 4 negative tests in a 7-8 span or something along those lines).
With a 6-man taxi squad, this is not prohibitive.
If the d-group is fully healthy for a month, Bouchard can head down to get some games in and then be re-called – yup, his couldn’t be inserted in to the lineup right away but after a week or so probably. Similar for Benson.
Bakersfield could not be used for immediate re-call but there could definitely be some movement between taxi squad and the AHL depending on health of the roster.
Holland initiated as much on Monday.
I really don’t know what Tippett and Playfair have planned for the defensive pairings.
What I do see is three right shot d-men capable of playing top 4 minutes and comp and a solid 18 minutes of 5 on 5 per game. I can see fairly even deployment at evens among the three right D. Of course Larsson and Bear pick up PK time and Barrie PP time.
Actually the b2b starting goalie myth has been largely disproven. Its the total at bats over a season that is what you want to watch and keeping starters to around 50 games over the season. I’m more worried about the teams whose starter only gets 25 games then the teams whose starter gets 40
LT, I think you’ve got the opening night forward roster (and lines) surrounded.
I too have Nygard as 15F and on the taxi squad (along with Benson) if the forward group is healthy.
I too have time for that heavy fourth line we saw perform in March and again in August. At the same time, I do think the coach will have Archie in his opening night lineup which likely moves Chiasson to the press-box – camp battles notwithstanding..
For sure, task 1 is to bring in Bear.
I think I’m in the minority if not really thinking they need to bring in another bottom of the roster left D with experience and it really does sound like Holland will do exactly that – Gazzola seems convinced Ben Hutton is coming in.
I get it, both Slater K. and Ben Hutton and more established as 3rd pairing d-men then Lagesson and it does provide more cover and depth given Russell’s age and regression and Jones’ inexperience and Nurse’s, well, needing to take another step defensively to prove to me a legit first pairing guy.
I’m starting to think the org doesn’t really see a future for Lagesson and doesn’t trust that he can fill in at 3LD this year. I guess the two-way contract (in the first year) should have been a tell. He likely doesn’t get claimed on waivers but, personally, I would still like to see him get his opportunity when the first injury arrives. I get the more certain cover that the acquisition brings but I think Lagesson can perform in the role.
Not to mention Lennstrom in behind.
Going after bottom of the roster 3rd pairing types is a good strategy for all the reasons you mention.
If Lagesson wins a job, you will still use at least three additional D. One is Bouchard. Still need two others.
The Hutton types can always be put on waivers.
I get your point, and see the merit, but I think I agree with OP here.
Between Lagesson and Lennstrom we have enough depth at 4/5LD.
If we were to sign another D, it would almost make more sense to get Bowey to slide in as 5RD behind Bouchard.
Personally speaking, I’d rather go get a veteran forward or two who can skate, score some, PK, and ideally win faceoffs. Guys like Grabner, Brassard, Lewis or Wilson come to mind.
Unless we’re talking Chara for a year, then that’s a different story.
1st line RW, 4th line C and backup goalie are, for me, the positions I see as most in need of cover. 1st line RW is not possible to improve externally with our cap situation. Backup goalie probably requires a trade none of us will like.
4th line centre would be the one spot I think I would still be shopping for at under a million.
Soderberg?
Soda for one year at one mill would be a divine solution. And he has the offensive chops to cover if Turris doesn’t pan out.
I’m okay with giving Khaira one last chance. We’re not a true contender till net and 1RW are solidified in a positive manner so if mgmt wants to see if he can put it all together, that’s fine.
But tempt me with some store-brand Soda for cheap? Sign me up.
Might be the dreaded Ultra-vaunt: the Double Unicorn….
Picard: There are FOUR Lines!!!
There’s no way goaltending and defense could fuck that up, right? RIGHT??
IF I understand this rule correctly – which is always a question when parsing language lawyers have been involved in crafting – does it not mean that guys who are subject to waivers but have passed through and are now on the taxi squad can come up and play a game and go back on the taxi squad having only used up one day of their exemption?
Anybody know if those 30 days or 10 games fall under the pro-rating that was just negotiated for this season.
Elliotte Friedman on additional advertising initiatives.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-will-aggressive-trying-new-initiatives-amid-hunt-grow-revenues/
LT said,
I think Koskinen will get the lion’s share of the starts in 2020-21.
Sadly, this seems unlikely with the number of back-to-backs scheduled. Koskinen will get the bigger portion but I doubt it is lion-sized in comparison to Smith’s plate.
With a compressed schedule, goalie rest will be key.
when is the schedule released I wonder how many back to backs we have? I have no idea but I say 16.
Good choice. You’re going to be pleasantly surprised.
I pointed this out in an earlier thread that during the last 48 game strike season, which was similarly compressed, starters actually played a higher percentage of their teams games compared to the seasons before or after. Then like now, almost all players including goalies are coming into the season after a very lengthy break so they are all starting completely fresh which is not normally true especially for players that had deep playoff runs. And given the heightened importance of each game because the season is shorter and every game is against a division rival, the coach is likely going to want their top guy in the net more often. Vasilevskiy started 25 games in a row in this year’s playoffs over 56 days. The only reason he got any breaks is because they won their series in less than the max. Back in the strike year, guys like Niemi, Lundquist, Howard, Rinne and a few others started 41-43 of their teams 48 games. It is unlikely any starter hits 50 starts with backups generally now starting a higher percentage, but I expect several will play over 40. If Koskinen plays well, I can see him starting 36 to 40 of the Oilers games leaving 16-20 for Smith or Forsberg. Positive COVID tests could impact things but that can’t be reasonably predicted.
Agree with all of this. Smith could surprise by getting on a hot streak – which he has been known to do – but barring one of those I expect to see Koskinen in 30-35 games.
I think the narrative that Koskinen wore out at the end of his first season is a bit overblown. First years find all sorts of guys unprepared for how much of a grind an NHL season can be.
They adapt their conditioning as a rule.
Thank you for your thoughtful, considered reply.
While there’s good chance you are right, as you have noted this a different world today. The issues with goalie hydration and the effects of hydration on cognition are better known in Sports Medicine than they were then.
And of course every Coach is going to have a different philosophy, regardless.
I will point out though that right up to the playoffs, Tippett’s actions revealed that he trusted Smith as much as Koski, maybe more.
Has that trust changed enough that he will start giving Koski B2B starts? Personally, I think I would have to see it before I believe it. When it comes to Human Action, I’m from Missouri. I mean wasn’t there quite a few people predicting the lion’s share for Koski before — and during — last season? Never materialized, although they made strong cases for doing so.
But I can totally see why people would think (or hope, in some cases) otherwise this season.
It’s really nice to have the Oilers down to one big problem area (and a few little ones), rather than problems every where we look. Just wish the biggie wasn’t in net. But in a shortened season maybe one of these buggers gets hot…
The fact that these back to backs are played without any travel in between is a bit helpful. I think goalies are more able to play back to back games if they don’t have to travel at all in between.
Travel is a factor but it’s not a critical factor. Travel can hinder Water + Rest but Lack of Travel doesn’t provide it either.
And the question isn’t… what’s the best response to the conundrum of goal-tending and the schedule? It’s… what’s Tippett’s response.
I would presume that finishing up a game, heading to hotel or home to sleep and them waking up for the normal game time routine would be more restful than finishing up a game, head to the bus to the airport, flying to the a new city, perhaps clearing customs and then bussing to a hotel or ubering home at 3am, no?
NHL players have spoke about back to backs and 3 in 4 nights being a much different situation when travel is involved.
I think he saw a material shift in Coach T.’s mind-set with respect to Mike Smith in the play-in round.
You say “Bit helpful”
I say “Travel is a factor but not a critical factor”
Obvious agreement. Which obviously demands a two paragraph over-statement of how travel helps but not critically? Whatever. Par for the course. Lol, and why you trying to convince me of stuff I already know? I’m not the decision-maker we’re talking about.
The question of course is “What will Tipp do?”
Until there is evidence he no longer trusts Smith to the degree he has in the past, I will continue to insist there is no evidence he no longer trusts Smith to the degree he has in the past.
(I hope he doesn’t trust him but this isn’t about my hopes.)
And one thing’s for sure, when a player has been a known warrior throughout his career (and even more especially, for you the coach), the NHL always delivers second chances.
And to a certain degree ALL of this depends on how both goalies play and how their wins come (streaky or not). Not to mention health. But till I see Tippett give Koski free rein, I’m not going to assume it’s a lock to happen. The better Smith plays early on, the more even the deployment will be.
(For the purpose of clarity, I consider two-thirds of a gazelle to be a lion’s share.)
There is evidence of a shift in how the coach trusts Smith – this was seen by Smith being pulled in game 1 of the play-in and then never getting his net back, even with Koskinen’s game being “meh” at best – there was every opportunity to go back to Smith and Tippett never did. Evidence!
OP is still waiting for Spooner to get a chance with Mcdavid
and Ryan Strome……
Kassian will pull the chute early, just like he did in the summer. I expect he will be an extra forward for most of the season, probably starting in game 1.
TV show pitch: godot10, Dallas Eakins, and Zach Kassian are stranded on an island…
I’m putting my money on kassian…Ha
Kassian was terrible in the play ins, however I wonder how much a player like him feeds off the crowd? I think certain players thrive in a full building, and Kassian is one of those players. Alos wondering how much the changes to routine affected him. For a recovering addict, setting routines and consistency is important, and all that gets thrown out the window in a bubble. I don’t think he’ll be back to the old Kassian until the league gets back to normal with fans in the seats.
he’ll find himself on the taxi squad if he can’t or won’t play the style that got him his retirement package.
Pro Hockey Rumors (@prohockeyrumors) Tweeted:
Nashville Predators Sign Erik Haula https://t.co/ZvVOPNeY0H https://t.co/KrBaRxGv6I
https://twitter.com/prohockeyrumors/status/1341782473483665412?s=20
1 year @ $1.75 million.
I expect a busy day today for GM’s around the league.
Looks accurate.
Michael Frolik signed to 1 year $750K by Montreal.
Personally I have no qualms with the current lineup given the current lack of cap flexibility. I see LT is teasing us with the infamous balance photo again. Perhaps we should have a contest like the TSN Mystery Moment. He tipped his hand today suggesting it was “beautiful”. My old guess of an Abacus seems unlikely. Being happily married I doubt it’s Pamela Anderson’s Baywatch Season 2 upper half. I’ll guess it’s Ziggy with a treat balanced on her nose.
On the taxi squad situation – I’m wondering if the Oilers try and take advantage of the cap by running a 20 man roster and assigning players to the taxi squad. You lose out on the extra players at that point as they’re shuffled in and out of the taxi squad on paper.
I guess this is how teams like Tampa etc. might be able to get back closer to the Cap limit and re-sign the guys they’re hoping to sign.
I think with LTIR rules, they only get cap relief if they are at the cap. Any savings through these paper transactions would only reduce the LTIR savings, so it would be a wash. At least that is my understanding of LTIR
And I think the 14 day quarantine will be a big issue this year. If a player gets claimed off waivers, not only do they lose the player, but his replacement is 2 weeks away. It’s going to be a tricky year for Holland
Ah but will teams be less likely to claim if that player is 14 days away from that team?
That 14-day quarantine only applies with claims made by 7 teams though, right? It doesn’t apply to going to the US, does it? Also, if coming to Alberta, there is that ability to have a much shorter quarantine period.
With all that said, there will be strict NHL testing protocols – I’m not sure exactly what they are though (but will be less than 14 days I’m sure).
Trevor is right – the Oilers will have no benefit of running a reduced active roster if they are using LTIR relief – if they are over their accruable cap space limit (which will be slightly below $81.5M if they use LTIR) they accumulate zero cap space daily (even if they are below their ultimate cap overage cushion).
So many good players on this 1985 Cardinals team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PB0XoLbm8
Looking forward to tonight’s game to see how Dyan Halloway plays. Does anyone know if they have assigned his game jersey number yet?
He shares the same number as Pearl Jam’s debut album.