The Oilers played well enough to win in regulation Friday night, but the lead story is they endeavored to persevere and won it early in overtime. Mikko Koskinen was terrific, McDavid and Draisaitl were out of this world and some of the new hires pitched in with the chores. It was a fine Saturday night in Edmonton.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Some of the Oilers’ Russian prospects less than a year from the NHL
- Lowetide: 3 auditioning Oilers who should be given time to find their groove
- Lowetide: It’s time for the Oilers to play prospect Evan Bouchard in NHL games
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for his No. 1 line audition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ scoring wing prospects having an impact.
- Lowetide: Oilers Kailer Yamamoto is the real deal.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers risers and fallers: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones among those stumbling early
- Lowetide: Oilers goaltending depth in a state of flux.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 3 line has been a source of anxiety early this season
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: First impressions of Oilers after opener against the Canucks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers opening night roster: A player-by-player breakdown
- Lowetide: Oilers risers and fallers and how they impact the opening night roster
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland let it ride in goal for the Oilers this season?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies with a chance to stick after one week of training camp
- Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Early roster rumblings as Oilers open training camp
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers training camp: Forecasting the big roster battles
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway’s world juniors work offers clues about Oilers future
THE OILERS IN MONTH NO. 1
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-7-0, eight points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-3-1, 15 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in October 2017: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in October 2018: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in October 2019: 8-2-1, 17 points, goal differential +8
- Oilers in Month 1 2021: 4-6-0, eight points, goal differential -5
A big win last night makes this month look far better than it might have at this point in time. Oilers played the Maple Leafs pretty well in the first four games, perhaps they’ll have more of the lineup pushing the next time these two teams next meet.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MONTH NO. 1
- At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto, Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-5-1, 11 points in 11 games
- Current results: 4-6-0, 8 points after 10 games
A win tonight and the Oilers come in almost top dead center based on my prediction. The reason I projected them at 5-5-1 was a belief that the team would be late for the sky. There are still some holes, but coach Dave Tippett is finding the formula. You can see it coming together now, but it took 10 games. No preseason is a bitch.
LINES, LAST NIGHT
- Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 18:40 (!!), going 12-10 shots, 1-0 goals, 2-2 HDSC, 23-17 Corsi five on five. A big night for this line, they played over 30 percent of the game as a unit. Kahun scored his first goal of the season, a nice tally that combined skill, hard work and athleticism. Yamamoto took a penalty but also skated miles and was a pain in the ass all night. He’s in a bit of a scoring funk but did get a couple of good looks. Draisaitl posted two assists, both exceptional, and now has 15 points in 10 games. I thought he played a complete game, including some nice defensive moments. The penalty he took on a crosscheck to Auston Matthews, was iffy.
- Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 12:46, going 6-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 4-0 HDSC and 11-5 Corsi five on five. Another strong effort by this trio, the GA was a ridiculous shot by Auston Matthews. Nuge had a couple of strong looks and almost set up the winner with 9 seconds remaining (Archibald). 97 checked down to the Ennis/Archibald line for his assist and scored in OT off a feed from Draisaitl. Puljujarvi had a good shot in the first, set up McDavid for what looked like a sure goal in the second. Effective trio, need to shoot more and have some puck luck.
- Neal-Turris-Kassian played 7:21, going 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 2-2 HDSC, 8-5 Corsi five on five. The goal against was ghastly, Neal specifically looked bad on the play. Beyond that, the line posted just one shot on goal but did get a couple of good chances (Neal especially). I would keep them together, this trio has played well in the last few games.
- Ennis-Shore-Archibald played 5:43, 4-3 shots, no goals, 2-0 HDSC and 4-4 Corsi five on five. Ennis had an early penalty shot but Archibald scored on a nice feed from McDavid. Line didn’t play much but didn’t cost the team. Archibald damn near scored on a brilliant Nuge feed with 9 seconds left.
PAIRINGS, GOALIE
- Nurse-Bear played 16:55, going 7-8 shots, 1-0 goals, 3-3 HDSC and 14-12 Corsi five on five. Played 12:33 against the Matthews line, 1-0 goals and 6-6 shots. Effective pairing, Bear was injured early in the third period. If he misses time, the Oilers could be in some difficulty.
- Jones-Larsson played 14:19, 6-6 shots, 1-1 goals, 2-0 HDSC and 15-10 Corsi for five on five. Effective in five minutes with the 97 line, they’re settling in.
- Koekkoek-Barrie played 11:10, going 4-5 shots, 0-2 goals, 5-1 HDSC and 10-10 Corsi for five on five. Exposed on the Nylander goal (it was not good), a little unlucky on the Matthews goal (crazy angle), the duo did benefit from Barrie’s rambunctious play (he landed two assists on the night).
- Nurse-Barrie played 7:34, going 5-4 shots, no goals, 1-2 HDSC and 9-6 HDSC. Barrie played nine minutes in the third, Nurse 11. This pairing may return tonight if Bear can’t go.
- Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 29, .892. He was outstanding during important moments of this game, made several absolutely scintillating saves.
TONIGHT
A win tonight puts the Oilers in a good spot (tied for fourth, although the Jets will have three games in hand) despite the struggles during the first month of the season. Lots of talk about moving Archibald or Kassian back to the top line, and Puljujarvi down. The numbers (Natural Stat Trick’s line tool isn’t working today) suggest JP is contributing and the line is doing great things with him on it. Goals aren’t coming, but they will if the coach stays the course. If Puljujarvi lands on another line for a time, it is not the end of the world. This could take the whole year.
The Bear injury is a big damn worry, I think Bouchard sliding in to replace Bear is less than 70 percent. We might see Nurse-Barrie, Jones-Larsson and Russell-Koekkoek this evening. We may also see Troy Grosenick!
PULJUJARVI FOR BENNETT
Lots of discussion about a JP for Sam Bennett deal on my twitter time line last night and this morning. Kent Wilson and I tackled that issue in July 2019. At that time it was a trade that made some sense for me, but at this point, with Puljujarvi back in the fold and showing well, I would take my chances with the Finn.
Most useless update:
After 1 game vs senators I hereby declare the Oilers
are on fire.
In a rolling 1 game average scoring:
Mcdavid is now @ 4.0 P/60
Drai is now @ 6.0 P/60
stuart skinner has also never been defeated.
Look out world all signs pointing oilers.
Nice! The Oil need to get you under contract as their new fancy stats guy asap.
Oilers 5W-6L on the season.
McDavid 3GWG
Draisaitl 2 GWG
TheOthers 0GWG
Drai is getting all the glory tonight because Gretz-1. Well-deserved too.
But to me Connor was The Man.
Every time the game looked like it was slipping away tonight, McDavid got the team back on track. And thecaptainconnormcdavid had just put the team on his back last night.
If the Oil fail to make the playoffs this year it won’t be because McDavid didn’t do everything he possibly could to get us there. He will. And it will be a travesty if we don’t make’em.
Pretty rare that a guy pots a goal and four helpers, to bring his season total to 2 points per game, and is overshadowed by a teammate who didn’t even score a goal.
97 and 29 have 50% more points than the two yahoos tied for third place.
This could get ugly.
Toronto’s media is already bent into pretzels.
Smith skating, “should be good in another week or so, I’m hoping” says Tippett.
Post game from Skinner
There’s really only two problems for Holly to solve.. Net and 3C. Everything else is handled.
I liked the bet on Turris during the off-season given the price point and his offensive history… but because of the cheap price there’s no way out mid-season I don’t think, but you never know. Kassian and Neal are out-playing his ass even offensively and Turris’s defensive limitations are obvious to all.
But damn this team also deserves contender level netminding as presently constructed.
D isn’t perfect but that’s partly injury and partly youth.
Short term solution would be to cut his ice time back and let Drai and Connor take occasional shift’s centering that line. Hopefully Haas can settle in at 4C
Skinner! I have seven other goalers, and I’ve never yelled their names. Not even once.
– SuperNintendo Chalmers
Been waiting for you like all game lol
You yell at me for everything.
Well I cant yell at anyone else. Teachers have unions. Students have parents.
What about Willie?
I like Willie
Low Event vs. High Event
Lagesson on for zero goals either way at evens.
Barrie and Nurse on for 3GF and 2GA at evens.
———–
Side note, Barrie led the D in ice at 5 on 5 with over 18 minutes (about 30 second more than Nurse0.
That top pairing was very good. Barrie had an excellent game, not just the PP but at evens as well.
Defensively and on the breakout, I still consider Bear to be the better option (when healthy). Bear’s battle level is just off the charts in comparison, just by eye.
Lagesson was real solid. Tipp is going to love that he got into the lane for that Norris shot on the PK. I think his puck moving is fine. I would be interested to see him with a guy who could be the primary puck mover, someone like a Bear/Barrie/Bouchard.
I worry about Jones. He is an effective player, but he needs to pick his spots better or he’s going to have a hard time establishing himself.
He is not going to get the rope that some of the veterans have.
Yes, Jones is trying to establish himself with a pile up of prospects behind him looking for his job. All rookie D make silly mistakes, but he does not have the slack to be making them right now. I would not be surprised if he’s not in the lineup for a while. Lagesson’s steadiness probably appeals to Tip at this moment.
Haas 3:57 on the PK. 1 shot against.
He was know as a plus PK in Switzerland and I was surprised he didn’t get a bit more time last year when PK guys were hurt or in the box.
Yup. Never understood it. His defensive play 5v5 jumps off the screen.
I only saw about half the game but I felt like Haas almost looked like a different player. He seemed bigger, stronger, faster to me (but that could be on me). In any case he did look very good.
Haas was always fast but he looked even quicker tonight than I remember.
The encouraging thing is Tippett obviously recognizes his value too.
He got him into a game as quickly as he could.
Now, can he steal Turris’s lunch money?
Stole the PK part of it.
I think that one was to be expected though… Turris being a placeholder for whenever either JJ or Haas aren’t in the line-up.
I don’t think even Tippett expected Turris to be this bad defensively. 3C could be there for Haas sooner that later.
I don’t think anyone did. Turris is a non-hobbit Gamgee and his career is headed straight for Mt. Doom.
Haas is a better solution for 4C but agreed… he might have to be our 3C stopgap till either Condredge, or McLeod of the Clan McLeod get here.
lol @ Condredge…you ol ****er
In about 1 week
Having two big bodies like Kass and Neal on his wings might be just the answer too.
Tip should have more roster options next game.
Mikko will play on Tuesday so Skinner can go back to the taxi squad so they could activate Bouch (or Ennis).
If Bear is still out, I think they need to get Bouch in to next game.
————–
I wonder if Bear goes on IR if he’s going to miss Tuesday? I could be retroactive to yesterday – I’m not sure if he’d be available to come off for the game next Sat (or if that “seventh day” wouldn’t allow him to come off until Sunday.
Tippett actually preferred Wild Bill over Kowboy tonight by a solid two minutes.
Let that sink in for a second.
I support Dave’s decision! I think Willy has the potential to be a very solid 3LD. Good size and a mean streak..
Sorry, I like the guy, but if ever makes 2nd pairing I’ll be speechless.
He turns 25 in a month and hasn’t locked down a 3rd pairing spot yet. The odds are not in his favour.
And if he makes the 2nd pairing he’s a 4 not a 3. I.e. the defensive conscience, not the offensive sortie-runner.
Edit:
…if only I could read. 3LD, yes, that might be possible. I personally don’t think he’s good enough for more than journeyman, but he could be a 3LD
I think JP is saving all his goals for the Flames.
He made some nice passes but he’s gotta shoot the pill. It’ll go in for him. He has a heavy shot.
Very happy for Skinner getting into a NHL game and getting the win, but this might be his one and only.
Congratulations to Principal Skinner on his first NHL win.
No matter what else happens in your life you will always have tonight. Treasure it.
This. He’s just 22 and clawed his %pct back to mid .800’s so there’s potential there.
Archibald could have had two goals tonight.
It’s a shame he’s possessed by the ghost of Tobias Rieder.
Crazy, but Tobias has 3 goals this season.
Good for Skinner to get the win in his debut! Having said that not sure I want to see him back in Oilers net any time soon.
Yup, Grosenick should be up to speed the next time he’s needed.
Skinner will be on his way to the AHL with some extra money in his pocket and will carry the load for the Condors – hopefully a plus year and we’ll see him at camp in Sept.
Yea I just wonder how much better Grosenick is???? Hope Koski can stay healthy.
He seems to be a consistently VERY good goalie in the AHL – .920 last year (I believe) consistent year over year too. Also has a 50 save shut out on his NHL resume in his two games.
Either way, he won’t need to play for a while given the 3 day break coming up.
Smith may be ready by the time a back-up start is needed.
That Grosenick has a 50 save shutout in the NHL and only has two games to his career leaves me with more questions than answers.
Yup, it doesn’t’ make sense from looking at the numbers – great AHL goalie who has never been given the NHL shot except for what seems like a couple emergency starts (which he killed the one).
Maybe partially a function of playing behind Niemi and then Jones (when he was good) with Dell as a back-up and then Rinne/Saros.
Really really liked Haas’ game by eye tonight.
Agreed. I really like the speed on that line
Agreed, he was good. Very reliable player and great wheels. Was in on a few scoring chances as well. I’ll take that as 4C.
I wonder how long he stays at 4C if Turris continues to struggle. 10 games maybe?
I found myself wondering how Haas would look between Kassian and Neal by the 2nd period tonight.
Turris looks like he’s sleepwalking out there.
Same.
and I don’t think he fell down once!!!
Seriously, he looked faster AND stronger.
he did didn’t he. good first game. a couple of ‘interceptions’ too
Holy crap that’s right!
He’s seeing the smaller rink, playing the NA game… think he’s feeling it now.
That play by whatever D hopped on second makes me question the awareness of the player. Like how cant they have noticed that 1 came off and 2 hopped on?
Jones
Yup.
Big kill – can breath easier now.
Turris off the PK?
(is that new? haven’t watched all game)
He’s been on the PK since game 1.
Only 37 seconds thus far.
OK, so it was an all game thing, I’d figured it had only started later in the game.
Good on Tippett for getting Haas out there immediately (only 6 total PK minutes last season!). And good on Haas for being decent/good. And good on Turris for, ahh… ugh.
Oh, you said “off” – ya, Haas has taken most of his reps.
Glad I didn’t say “the dreaded 5-goal lead”.
The dreaded 3-goal lead!
Tippett is benching Jones next game
*prediction
He did not see much ice after the penalty he took. Lagesson took that spot next to Larsson, it looked like.
So if someone brings a 6 pack of Pil on the ice and everyone gets one and there isn’t one left someone get the hell off the ice!!
Good grief. Brutal turnover in the neutral zone, 3 on 2 heading back, thank goodness 2 guys jumped over the boards. Lol.
…It is a creative solution to solving an odd-man rush.
Sure is!
Back to the PK – its been better through the middle part of this game but, if it gives up one here….
Kinda disgusting actually…Just piss poor game management…
To be fair, everyone knows the toughest lead in hockey is 8-3…???
This game can’t end quick enough. Too many of the same mistakes are rearing their ugly heads….
Couple really nice defensive plays by Willy Lags tonight
As I’ve been saying, if he can get a string of games, the game will slow down for him and we’ll start to see a really reliable player that can move the puck.
At least that’s my projection – don’t know if he’ll get that string of games though.
I’ve like Wild Bill tonight as well, would like to see him get into more games. Preferably over KRusty.
Coach making them complete 3 passes before they can shoot
lots of time left to find a new way to lose.
can the Oilers play shut-down???
I think they are better off getting back to trying to score again.
Kailer and Kahun over-passing there – I think trying to get Drai in on the play…
8 goals should be enough to get this over the finish line
Oilers floating again. I wonder if it’s all that orange.
To be fair..
it is a lot of orange.
Is Skinner wearing a glove or…?
where the heck was Larsson going there? I mean that is at least the 3rd time Ive seen him do that this year. Each time its a goal against…. He leaves Stutzle to walk right in…Thats some sort of bad read. I dont get it….
how does a vet turn the wrong way on that?!
Larson pyloned again.
Germans now have eight points in this game.
8-5 meow. Time to bear down again.
Nice save by Skinner there; 1st period would have sent him spinning; much more solid, now.
Louie takes a shot at Matt Tkachuk with that comment!
If that was his brother he’d jump on his head
Hopefully this PK can be as good as the last two.
Have liked Haas’ work (eye test only) – very quick and smart anticipation.
We’ve gone 5 minutes without a goal. Jonesin’ for a hit…
If Puljujarvi was playing with a better finishing left winger than Nuge, he’d had 3 points tonight……. kidding, obviously, but he’s set Nuge up for two grade A chances and a grade A-.
Nice save Skinner – no rebound..
Settling in a bit for sure.
This didn’t age well.
If Nuge can’t larn to bury wide open chances like that, he’ll never score 50 points.
Nuge has never had a great shot. He has never had any clue where it’s going. But he gets it on the net enough to be successful, thank gord.
Can’t tell if you’re just one-upping my sarcasm?
His wrister and snapshot is deadly. Lots of torque.
Ya, I found that post describing Nuge’s shot, quite odd.
Do you think it’s as odd as the level of passive-aggressiveness you’re displaying here? Lol.
Are you still butthurt about the hearsay comment? Too funny.
All I did was say I found the comment odd.
Not sure what you are inferring but it seems wildly incorrect.
No.
What you did was say that to another person rather than saying it to me, the source of the “odd” comment. And you are quite aware of that. And it’s blatantly obvious to everyone reading. And yet you still cannot admit it.
That’s hilarious. Like the kid with chocolate all over his face denying he ate the cake.
Downplaying it as nothing without coming clean is yet another sign of passive-aggressiveness. And such behavior did not start with this comment or with me.
“wildly incorrect”. …Lol.
Must be why it keeps coming up then and by multiple posters. But maybe if you protest harder this will all go away…
Pfffffffffffffffffffftttt.
Everyone is free to have their own opinion but you are mistakenly inferring, well, everything that you state.
All i did was agree with BornIn’s opinion (as not agreeing with the original opinion, yours) and made a quick response to it. Responded to it as the last post I had read and as a quick agreement given, you know, I was in the middle of watching a hockey game and not looking to get in to a nuanced conversation about Nuge’s shot.
You can think what you want but you are assigning WAY too much meaning to a nothing post.
He did cost Jesse three assists last night though.
Plenty of torque, yes. Often completely misses the net from short range. Deadly if you’re an end board.
Huge has had a ton of open looks tonight.
NUGE!
Nuge not finishing has robbed Puljujarvi of two great assists.
No-momoto.
So is the “can Draisaitl drive his own line” talk still a thing er no????
There’s a rumour circulating the blog that he now needs Nuge to be successful
Wrong. My point is that the Oilers need Nuge with Draisaitl for the team to be successful
Gene with a Scott Oakward level question.
Goal differential is the third tie breaker at the end of the season after ROW and head to head record