A Disagreeable Evening In Calgary

by Lowetide

As we discussed yesterday, the Oilers haven’t been a major success against the Calgary Flames over the years. Since Connor McDavid arrived in the fall of 2015, Edmonton’s won loss record is 12-10-1. That’s an improvement over the previous 25 seasons, but in a year where there’s a real chance just one Alberta team makes the playoffs, banking points against the provincial rival is vital. Last night: Opportunity missed.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AFTER 13 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-165-8-0, 10 points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 9-3-1, 19 points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 4-8-1, nine points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 8-4-1, 17 points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 8-4-1, 17 points, goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 6-7-0, 12 points, goal differential -2

A disappointing result overall but it is not a catastrophe. Edmonton lets Calgary into the fourth-place conversation (bad) but the Canucks are free falling (good) with no apparent Ottawa in sight. In fact, Calgary and Vancouver play each other four times in the next 10 days, so we could be soon talking Flames-Oilers in a battle for the final playoff spot over the rest of the winter.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Ottawa (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Ottawa, Ottawa, Montreal (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Toronto (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
  • Current results: 1-1-0, 2 points in 2 game

I had the Oilers grabbing a Bettman (I don’t normally bet on Edmonton to beat the Flames in Calgary, even in the McDavid era) last night, so there’s a good chance the team finishes shy of my prediction. The Ottawa games should be wins but as the Habs showed last week nothing is certain.

LINES, LAST NIGHT

  • Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 10:37, 6-4 shots, 1-1 goals, 2-2 HDSC and 10-8 Corsi five on five. All numbers NST. It was another night of growth for Puljujarvi, who is emerging as the most dynamic winger on the line. JP’s give and go on his goal was veteran stuff and when he took the return pass he was a rocket on a rail to the net. Flames’ sphincters were tighter than Motown drums by the time he got the shot away. The penalty hurt but was a nothing burger so not sure how much blame to lay on the winger. McDavid replayed his injury play so he could trigger fans worst nightmares, that play is to Oilers fans what Mary Hart’s voice is to Kramer. Pretty clear Calgary defensemen are never going to get a penalty on that play. Nuge had an assist on four shots, McDavid 1-1-2 and JP 1-0-1 but sent several brilliant passes to linemates. I’m absolutely enthralled by the possibilities here.
  • Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 10:01, 3-8 shots, 0-2 goals, 1-4 HDSC and 7-15 Corsi five on five. This line is stale, and as you may know I’m a fan of the trio. For the season the line has just a 48 percent shot share but are 7-3 goals. Need to improve their share of chances. Draisaitl had one assist on the night, Kahun too, a dandy pass on the Nurse goal. Not sure how much to blame the line for the two GA. Backlund goal involved Tyson Barrie trying to leap to catch a puck and Koskinen making a nice stop but not securing the rebound. On the Bennett goal, Yamamoto was late to enter the zone and Bouchard covered the right point, that set off all kinds of events, including Kahun trailing the goal scorer and Russell ignoring him. So, some fault on the second goal. This line needs a tweak.
  • Neal-Turris-Kassian played 7:16, 2-5 shots, 0-1 goals, no high dangers and 3-7 Corsi. Neal was most noticeable on the PP but didn’t cash, he needs to be around the puck more. Turris didn’t get a lot done and I think the organization is going to make a change here. Kassian had one decent look but not much, he looked like a man who had been told to stay out of the penalty box and turned that into a sleeper of a game. The line also needs a tweak.
  • Jujhar Khaira had his best game of the year, out of nowhere. Scored a goal, 4-1 shots, he was rockin’ in the free world mostly with Archibald and McDavid.
  • Josh Archibald played 8:19, most noticeable on the PK where he played 2:31 clean.

PAIRINGS, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Barrie played 14:21, going 8-9 shots, 1-3 goals, 2-3 HDSC and 16-15 Corsi five on five. I don’t think we’ll see this pair Monday if Ethan Bear is healthy. Nurse scored a nice goal, Barrie had an assist. Your mileage may vary, but for me Barrie has too much chaos in his game to play this far up the lineup. His play on the Gaudreau goal both turned over the puck and left him completely out of the play with no help from Calgary. As mentioned above, his Backlund goal reach for the sky was not effective and showed how far out of position he was at the time. This pairing needs a tweak.
  • Russell-Bouchard played 9:28, 6-5 shots, 0-2 goals, 0-1 HDSC and 10-8 Corsi. On the Lucic goal Bouchard chased behind the net and Russell was France in World War 2 (pointed in the wrong direction). That one hurt. I described the Bennett goal above. Bouchard needs a new partner, don’t know who it might be. Russell can be effective, this blog doesn’t shoot at him every chance. However, the big part of his game is defense, so a dash 2 night, even in an evening where the goalie was from the 80’s, isn’t good enough.
  • Lagesson-Larsson were 7:54, 3-5 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-2 HDSC and 6-9 HDSC. Both picked up assists on the Khaira goal and played well in their minutes. Larsson is now settling in with Lagesson, I still think Caleb Jones is a better partner for the veteran. Lagesson earned fan points with his sparring punches on Tkachuk.
  • Slater Koekkoeke played very little, did get some PK time.
  • Mikko Koskinen hasn’t stolen a game this year and this team needed him to be far better on a night when structure went adrift. He wasn’t good enough on several goals and will need to play better. Stopped 22 of 28, .786. Reminded me a little of that Laurent Brossoit Saturday night a few years ago.

MIKE SMITH

If you’ve come here for a rant about the goaltending, prepare to be disappointed. I’ve said in the past it was surprising that Holland didn’t upgrade, although in fairness he did try. Now, in the middle of a pandemic season, the play for Holland and coach Dave Tippett will surely be giving Mike Smith two of the remaining three starts on the road. Beginning Monday in Ottawa. Koskinen’s SP is .889, Stuart Skinner’s is .868. If Smith can roll a number over .900 he’ll be a Godsend.

FIVE ON FIVE GF-GA CENTERS

  1. Leon Draisaitl 10-3 [+7]
  2. Connor McDavid 13-12 [+1]
  3. Kyle Turris 3-12 [-9]
  4. Jujhar Khaira 1-3 [-2]
  5. Devin Shore 0-2 [-2]
  6. Gaetan Haas 0-1 [-1]
  7. Overall 27-33, -6

No need to overthink this, Turris is absolutely not getting it done.

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hunter1909

Only 3 days and 8 hours left for Hunter1909’s Death March™

Then…

It’s all over(until the playoffs)

Harpers Hair

Another great one gone…Ralph Backstrom passes away.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/02/07/ralph-backstrom-nest-plus

Munny

Pretty sure he gets a few mentions in Chapter 2 of LT’s forthcoming book: Sam le Flambeur. Aka That Plundering Pollock.

Although, how could Sam have known?

Backstrom demands the trade… I think it was due to no ice time, so Sam sends him to last place LA where Ralph plays so well, he lifts the team out of last place. Maybe no big deal, but that meant the Seals finished last, and Sam, holder of the Seals’ now #1 overall, drafts The Flower.

Habs fans spend the next 8 years in nirvana.

Last edited 8 months ago by Munny
hunter1909

Back then the new expansion teams, desperate for fans would toss away their draft picks until Philadelphia started building their team properly and another beating was in the cards for the Boston Bruins lol

Munny

Oh great, we’re downvoting memorial posts too. We are so classy here now.

Sierra

Lol, and this receives down votes too.

Munny

I was totally expecting that, it’s pretty predictable.

I don’t care about me, but I do care about my fellow man, and I do care about this place and how it and Mr. Mitchell are perceived by outsiders. Especially in the current political climate.

We used to be the classiest hockey site on the net. Now we’re ON or HF.

I know I know, I’m nuthin but a dead parrot pining for the fjords lol. But at least we got the lead post back into the green.

Last edited 8 months ago by Munny
Fuge Udvar

What perception are you worried people will have?

Cassandra

That lowetide is just another site read by anonymous strangers who lack intelligence and integrity. It didn’t used to be that way, but it has become that. The downvoting is just the most obvious marker of this.

jtblack

What are RNH’s 5×5 numbers?

Keeping in mind he is playing with the best Offensive player in the NHL

Munny
BornInAGretzkyJersey

His 2020/21 numbers are:
13gp 5g 6a 11p 0.85ppg

If you’re into those kinds of things.

OriginalPouzar

Of course, the suggestion would be to perhaps make a change at 5 on 5 but keep them together on the PP.

If I’m not mistaken, wasn’t there a “lack of chemistry” between Nuge/Jesse back during Jesse’s ELC? I think there were a lot of Lucic minutes in that though.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Not sure. It’s been a while though.

I seem to remember JJ – RNH – JP doing well at evens for a time before Lucic – Strome – JP looked okay together but got nothing done.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I don’t put much weight into xMetrics, personally. Too much variance for my liking, and I’m either not interested enough or don’t have the time to suss out the delta between which specific source determined what was a high danger shot in certain circumstances.

UnjustEnrichment

As I recall, there was some chemistry for a while with the Nuge-Khaira-Puljujarvi combination.

jp

His 2020/21 numbers are:

13gp 5g 6a 11p 0.85ppg

If you’re into those kinds of things.

Other things folks may or may not be into:

Nuge with McDavid in 650 minutes prior to this season scored 2.31P/60 (McDavid scored 3.05/60). Their GF% was 57.1%

(Just for comparison, in those same 3 seasons McDavid with Draisaitl scored 3.23/60 in 1860 minutes with a GF% of 54.2%. (Draisaitl scored more in his McDavid minutes than Nuge did though)).

Those numbers mean as much to me as the numbers from 167 minutes this year (with a .949 PDO).

I’d be A-OK to see the lines shuffled all the same.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yeah that’s kind of been my underlying point all along.

Nuge has a history of results that don’t have me reaching for the panic button yet.

But I have time for seeing DRY back together, KY up with Nuge and Connor, or some combination of unicorns.

Just win, baby.

jp

Yeah there’s very clearly no need to push the panic button on Nuge specifically. He’s 1 point off last years career best points/game rate after all.

It does feel like time for a shakeup though. That was a tough loss to the Flames.

It’s weird to think though that the team had won 3 in a row before that (2 vs Ottawa I know), and they had a truly dominant first period vs the Flames before they collapsed.

Part of me wants to commend Tippett for keeping Nuge-McDavid together (because 57% shot share or whatever it is). Plus he had Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto at 7GF-1GA entering the game last night. (Why on earth would he have broken up the KYD line anyway? maybe that’s the super simple answer to why Nuge is still with McDavid?)

Anyway, I guess I’m fine with pretty much any line arrangement for Tuesday. That includes all of DRY, Nuge at 3C and the status quo.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yeah I think you’ve got it surrounded.

We know Tippett values metrics.

What we don’t know are the expectations he’s laid out for players and the team in general and how they are or aren’t meeting those expectations.

I do think no shakeup would be surprising but also not the end of the world. It’s not like they just rolled over after the first period and meekly gave away the game.

Bear can’t get back soon enough, and if he could find Turris along the way, that’d be great. The ghost who’s been showing up in his stead is not doing the team any favours. At some point you’d think Tippett will have to try 3C if KT can’t get any traction.

jp

Agreed that no shakeup seems unlikely. Having Bear back should help, and something has to give on that 3rd line at some point (whether it’s Haas there, Nuge there, recovery from Turris, or something else).

Harpers Hair

Well…that was immensely profitable.

Thanks Tom.

Munny

I’m not a fan, and Montana was My Main Man, but there’s no doubt in my mind that #12 Tom Wilkinson Brady is the greatest of all-time

Harpers Hair

He has more Super Bowl wins than any franchise.

greenshifter

Pretty amazing! Can he play net?

Sierra

That’s insane!

Bulging Twine

Bridget was better looking than Giselle

PerryK

Really, we need the 7 d set up. Nurse Bear, Koekook (Jones) Larsson, Lagesson Barrie. With Bouchard filling in as required primarily for Bear and Larsson. Seat Turks, and plug in Haas. Of course everyone is thinking this, so I’ll say that maybe Kahun switching with RNH may be a decent experiment that can be undone easily if it doesn’t work. Also, Jesse is a stud! Any questions?

PerryK

Turris not Turks! Darn autocorrect!

OriginalPouzar

McDavid and Drai were both close to 30 minutes last night – in the 1st of 3 games in 4 nights with travel east included.

These guys are playing too much.

7D isn’t sustainable in my opinion and they need to go 6D for the next two games.

OriginalPouzar

Lots and lots of talk about the top 6 and where Nuge should play.

The Oilers are 10th in the NHL at scoring at 5 on 5 (GF/60) and 5th in all situations.

Goal scoring is not an issue for this team.

I’m not sure switching Nuge and Kahun would make a marked difference.

I can see the argument for moving Nuge to 3C given they are giving everything back.

Of course, Nuge can’t move off of McDavid’s wing without Drai going there….. or so it seems.

Scungilli Slushy

Yes but better play is an issue.

The Oilers with these two should be blowing the NHL out of the water in scoring.

Connor needs his Kurri and Nuge isn’t that as good as he is. Connor needs a defensively responsible finisher. JP is a chance generating beast but he also isn’t a finisher.

He’ll get his points, but his role for Connor is being a gigantic fast playmaking distraction, especially if he develops some edge.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Connor and JP developing some chemistry could be what simultaneously saves the top six, and stems the bleeding in the bottom six by allowing RNH to shift to 3C.

Nygard looked excellent in a small sample on Connor’s port side — as I know you are well aware of — and could be a good fit if given the opportunity.

Perhaps someone in the org. needs to highlight that part of Tipp’s spreadsheet in his morning report.

A somewhat balanced deployment of three offensive lines and a 5-6 minute at 5v5 line of PK players could do some damage. Would open up chances to get Connor or Leon some clean air on the road too.

OriginalPouzar

I am far from convinced that its Tippett that has the requirement that either Nuge or Drai play with McDavid.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If you don’t want to reply to the substance of my post that’s fine, but please don’t use my post as a pulpit to propagate your new hobby horse.

I’m having a difficult time sussing out your intentions behind this recent angle you’ve been spamming. Whether it’s having a lark or trying to frame a new narrative I’m unsure, but either way I have yet to see any indication it’s even a rumour other than your increasingly frequent posts suggesting as such.

Last edited 8 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
SVR

Why are you trying to spin this as McDavid is selfishly dictating who he plays with? You have no idea.

OriginalPouzar

Because I think that, given all the info we have, its a definite reasonable possibility.

Of course I have no way of being sure and it very well could be wrong – hence why I keep putting the “speculation” caveat.

SVR

I’d suggest sticking to critiquing the hockey skills. Leave the character slandering alone.

OriginalPouzar

I’ll take your suggestion under advisement but I have the right to provide my opinion and I’m very clear that its just a speculative opinion and not a fact and very well could be wrong.

All sorts of players, coaches and managers have their “character questioned” daily — I know its essentially a sin to question anything about the captain but critique and criticism are not off-limits.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Sure. You are of course entirely factual in your assertion of providing your personal opinion. And in maintaining your right to do so.

But dozens of times a day, daily, becomes distasteful, no? A handful or so would suffice. Lots to talk about without constantly repeating speculation of Captain’s requirements. In my opinion.

Munny

There is also a well-known effect… one of repeating things that aren’t true… which makes them seem as if they are, or simply gains validity of some sort, through sheer repetition.

jp

I’ll take your suggestion under advisement but I have the right to provide my opinion and I’m very clear that its just a speculative opinion and not a fact and very well could be wrong.

Not that it matters, but your repeating this every time McDavid’s linemates are discussed has been bothering me also. What purpose does it serve?

Justthestatsman

I guess your speculation is a possibility, but I’m not sure what information we have that would make it a reasonable possibility.

I’m more inclined to think, given a choice between winning games and winning a scoring championship or MVP award, Connor would pick winning 10 times out of 10. There’s nothing I’ve seen in his character or demeanour that would see him specifically demanding either playing with or without certain team mates.

Munny

I guess we should be happy that Connor didn’t stamp his feet and insist on his way last season while DRY was ripping through schedule like hot butter. He was smart to wait for the playoffs…

And then Tippett defending his line change through the short-lived play-ins probably never happened either.

Last edited 8 months ago by Munny
OriginalPouzar

Of course, the change pre-dated the play-in and was made shortly after McDavid returned from injury.

Munny

~~Oh well then it has to be Connor~~

OriginalPouzar

Doing a little digging and I was actually surprised that McDavid has 41 minutes of 5 on 5 ice without Nuge this season.

Digging a little further and he’s got 20 minutes with Drai and without Nuge so, really, 20 minutes all season long without Drai or Nuge and I would suggest that almost all of that is via (a) line changes and (b) when he subs in for the 4C (or plays with the two extra forwards if they have 11D).

McDavid doesn’t play without Nuge or Drai – permission should be requested.

Sierra

McDavid doesn’t play without Nuge or Drai – permission should be requested.

what are you talking about? Requesting permission from who?

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Brady v Mahomes. I’m wracking my brain for a similar type matchup up in the finals of a sport: Would be like Jordon v a young Lebron.

– Whats a similar match-up: an all-time great vs the current great? Happened sometimes in Boxing, where this is a passing of the guard in a fight, like Ali v Liston

– We never got a Lemieux v Gretz for instance.

greenshifter

Magic vs. Bird comes to mind

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Yeah: I thought of that, but doens’t fit the criteria: They had a rivarly for a number of years, its wasn’t a “passing of the torch” type thing. Magic was a little older, but they battled for most of the 80s: two great teams: and both retired early: Aids and injuries

– That was peak sports for me: 49ers, Lakers v Celtics, Oilers, Ben Johnson, Expos then Jays emerged, some great Baseball teams, heck, even the Grey Cup mattered!

greenshifter

My bad, I missed that part of your comment. What a great rivalry those two had!

Reg Dunlop

A couple bones to pick; Bird is 3 years older than Magic who left school early to turn pro, Sonny Liston hardly qualifies as an all-time great and the Grey Cup ceased to matter when the first NFL game reached Canadian television and fans actually saw players who could tackle.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hey Kinger, please forgive the off topic question, but I’ve been dying to ask you this since your post about Gamestop. (Also interested in the opinions of others in this realm.)

The vibe I get from the news coverage and commentary is that the Feds may try to put a limit on speculative trading to prevent a short squeeze like this from repeating.

How is this situation any different — in practice or result — from the short squeeze on VW in 2008, or when Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn duked it out over Herbalife? Both situations were highly speculative and public.

Would any SEC action likely be some kind of refinement of codes placing a limit on available options to the number of existing shares? Surely this squeeze couldn’t have reached such heights if there wasn’t such high leverage on shares that didn’t exist?

Munny

Naked short-selling is already illegal. They could start with actually enforcing that reg.

With everything now ultra-politicized, yet with the Dems beholden to Wall Street, it’s going to be interesting to see what comes out of the hearings.

But you can bet it will be neither free nor enterprising…

And dammit, we’re still trying to sell tickets to this impeachment sideshow.
Naked short-selling is already illegal. They could start with actually enforcing that reg.

With everything now ultra-politicized, yet with the Dems beholden to Wall Street, it’s going to be interesting to see what comes out of the hearings.

But you can bet it will be neither free nor enterprising…

And dammit, we’re still trying to sell tickets to this impeachment sideshow.

(“Step this way and try not to get your mink caught on the barbed wire…”)

Last edited 8 months ago by Munny
BornInAGretzkyJersey

That makes sense. Doubly so 😉 Thanks.

Nothing like creating new laws to enforce the ones already on the books, especially if you can spin it to control the undesirables.

Bulging Twine

I am of the belief that the Nuge is tired
Too many games, too much ice time. Getting worn down.
1.3 5×5 pts/60 and playing with McDavid
22:20 average ice time is too much for him and especially in this condensed schedule
It’s risking injury

Last edited 8 months ago by Bulging Twine
Munny

They need to get his — and Draisaitl’s — ass off the PK.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

100%

The last few seconds off a face off or on an OTF shift I’m fine with, but not material time. Reeks of suboptimal deployment, and as I recall when #flattop did it the results weren’t the best.

OriginalPouzar

Nuge’s PK TOI was vastly reduced when Haas was in the lineup and I expect that to continue (here is hoping he’s back tomorrow).

I think Drai is generally just used for faceoffs and, if he wins and they get a clear, he changes. That and when a PK forward is in the box.

They’ve got Haas (when he plays), Khaira (when he plays) and Archibald.

Turris, Shore, Yamamoto haven’t had much success killing penalties to my recollection.

Another way to help reduce ice time – play 12 forwards.

Another way – actually change the PP half 3/5 of the way through – Drai and McDavid can stay sometimes, I guess, but Nuge can change along with Neal/Puljujarvi/Chiasson and Barrie. I know the PP minutes aren’t as taxing (in theory) but still.

Bulging Twine

Can anyone come up with an Adam Larsson comparable?
around 28 years old when signing

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I tried to dial in a list of comps for you using the 28 year age for defensemen signing a UFA contract. It’s been caught in moderation for some reason.

I used this tool:
https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables

Bulging Twine

thanks man, i’ll definitely have a look

OriginalPouzar

Just did the research, Holloway’s ELC will not be subject to slide.

If he signed in the 2021 calendar year, he will have a signing age of 19 but the slide doesn’t apply to him because he turns 20 between Sept 15 and December 31 of the year.

If he signs this spring and plays for the Condors (or Oilers of course), that will burn his first year and 2021/22 will be the 2nd year of his ELC.

If he signs but doesn’t play for the Condors (or Oilers) until 2021/22 that will be the first year of his ELC.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Thanks for this.

McSorley33

Can KC’s offence be stopped?

Probably not.

With this understanding, I blitz Mahomes* all day * and make him pay for every throw. ( Starting LT out for Chiefs)

Would I give up a few big plays? Yep.

But, I Cant have Mahomes just sit there and pick which weapon to use.

leadfarmer

Wow and I thought we got screwed by refs
Columbus got royally screwed
this is embarrassing for the league

fishman

Oh what happened? Wasn’t watching game.

Kert

Canes scored, CBJ challenged for offside. Goal stands but should not have. CBJ keeps talking with the refs, they retract the penalty for a failed challenge, but leave the goal…? Something like that.

godot10

The most I would go for Gibson is the 1st, Samorukov, Lavoie, and Koskinen. I’m not trading Bouchard or Broberg.

There would be free to consider guys like Jones, Berglund, etc.

They could take Barrie and Chiasson instead of Koskinen.

OriginalPouzar

It needs to be Koskinen to get rid of the 2021/22 season.

Some of these suggestions for Gibson are crazy to me: like Bouchard/Broberg, Holloway and a 1st? Crazy talk.

Goalies can be so all over the place and the trade value for goalies is generally lower.

With that said, given his age and how good he is, Gibson is one of the very few I would pay material value for.

I could be convinced to give up the 1st rounder for him but not much more – less than a Sammy level prospect.

If they want Sammy, I’d add another good piece but not a 1st rounder – Lavoie or Savoie.

Holloway and Bouchard/Broberg are not on the table.

Munny

I’m just impressed you hung onto Mama Kass while doin yer California Dreamin.

OriginalPouzar

One of the biggest advancements in Jesse is, not his own confidence, but the confidence his linemates have in him, in particular, McDavid.

They are looking for Jesse with space knowing he can and will make plays.

Perfect example was, I believe late in the game when the Oilers needed a goal, McDavid was circling in the offensive zone from low to high and dropped for Jesse at the blue – a situation showing trust that Jesse could make a smart offensive play and keep the pressure going – and he didn/

McSorley33

Agreed.

You can just see the confidence in JP growing.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I see the same.

But make no mistake, the external confidence in him is because of material improvements in play on his part. He’s more predictable or consistent. He still occasionally skates to the wrong spots and bumps into line mates but so much less frequently.

He’s playing more within the game plan while remaining an unpredictable wildcard (which is taxing for the opposition).

OriginalPouzar

Oh, for sure – the confidence from his linemates in him is earned.

I’ve just noticed a marked change not only from the beginning his time on the 1st line until now but over the last 2-3 games.

It was very noticeable last night.

Early on, when he got the puck, its was generally due to him winning a battle or finding a loose puck. Now, he often received the puck from his linemates, in particular from Connor last night.

Obviously that give and go beauty goal will do nothing but further ingrain in his linemates that this player can, and will, make plays.

The original play that I was talking about, where McDavid looped from low to high, left if for Jesse at the blue, well, Jesse made a fantastic pass to a streaking Barrie that was almost one of the goals of the year.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yeah, JP can be a load when he’s got a head of steam.

I like how he’s showing up in and around a lot more skill plays now that he’s brimming with confidence.

Long may it continue!

OriginalPouzar

For 2021/22, I wouldn’t be adverse to this starting lineup:

Nurse/Bear
Klefbom/Bouchard
Samorukov/Larsson

Laggeson (if Jones is lost in expansion).

Larsson to a 2-3 year deal at apx $2.5M AAV

Russell waived to the AHL (although he may be claimed for $1.2M)

Given, Klef can’t get to Cleveland for his surgery, he’ll likely not be ready to start the season.

McSorley33

This is the way.

Bulging Twine

The Larsson deal will be interesting.
Do you think Larsson would sign that deal?

In contract negotiations they look at comparables, who is a Larsson comparable?

pts2pndr

With his injury history and lack of offence given the flat cap era OP is definitely in the ball park salary wise.

OriginalPouzar

No, I’m not confident Larsson will sign that deal. I don’t think its out of the realm of possibility but he may want longer term to get quite that low.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

First player that comes to mind is Savard.

It’s an interesting question.

Bulging Twine

One of the things that will make it interesting is I would imagine that his reputation is greater than his level of play (imo) or his usage.

OriginalPouzar

I would posit that:

1) external reputation > play
2) internal reputation < play

I would suggest that Adam Larsson has been quite good the last few games (again) and doing so with a rookie that is finding his way.

I anticipate that he’ll get beat by speed or talent in the next game or two and all many will remember is the one play and calls for his benching will ring loud.

Bulging Twine

Savard hey? Yeah, at first impression that would seem to be a pretty similar player (haven’t looked at the numbers of course).

He got 5 years / 4.25 aav and that included at least one rfa year, maybe two. oof He signed that when he was 25 or 26

Last edited 8 months ago by Bulging Twine
BornInAGretzkyJersey

According to CapFriendly, mostly filtered for RHD and cut off at less than 80% comparable (variable sliders left at default):

  • Olli Maatta (LD, but similar Rickibox dman)
  • David Savard
  • Damon Severson
  • Connor Murphy
  • Brett Pesce
  • Oscar Klefbom (LD but, still relevant)
  • Chris Tanev
  • Slava Voynov
  • Simon Despres
  • Travis Hamonic
  • John Klingberg
  • Justin Faulk
  • Rasmus Ristolainen
  • Rasmus Andersson
  • Seth Jones
  • Dougie Hamilton
  • Nakita Zaitsev
  • Josh Manson (79.8%)
Bulging Twine

okay, thanks for that. I’ve never played around with that cap comparable tool.
well that is quite the spread of players. Requires a deeper dive I suppose

BornInAGretzkyJersey

No problem.

It is an interesting exercise.

I tried replying to your other request with the signing age of 28 but the list was caught in moderation. Not sure why. Maybe something to do with the names I copy/pasted from CF’s site which were just links to their player pages.

It was a different list so definitely worth some more time using the tool.

OriginalPouzar

Smith has been activated and Skinner loaned to the Condors.

Ummmm, does that mean Dylan Wells is on the taxi squad? He isn’t in Bakersfield.

This would actually make sense as it will allow Skinner to get AHL development time and Wells is emergency only.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

According to CapFriendly, the taxi squad is down to five players. Which means we could see someone new waived. My bet would be KK.

Ennis
Nygard
Wells
Shore
Russell

Wonder if we get a look at Lennstrom once guys in Europe start to trickle back to BAK?

Last edited 8 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
OriginalPouzar

Wells in on the taxi squad.

Remember, the NHL mandates 3 goalies on the active roster/taxi squad.

They couldn’t add another skater to that group (well, unless Wells was added to the active roster).

With that said, the next player waived has to be Koekkoek – it doesn’t have to happen now but, at some point, they need to be able to put another d-man, other than Bouchard, on the taxi squad.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Wells was listed in my post above.

The taxi squad is currently listed at five players, of a possible six.

Ergo, KK could be waived without other transactions.

OriginalPouzar

Forgot to comment on Lennstrom – by far the best Oilers d-man over the two games this weekend. Mark me as very impressed – I saw exactly what those the watched him play in Sweden said – translate very well to the AHL.

I could see him be a potential recall, yes.

Moreso, he’s an RFA this off-season, if he plays this was in Bakersfield consistently this season, he will be in the conversation (along with Sammy and Broberg) for Oilers roster next season.

He’s on the map.

No exhibition cratered any chance he had for the current roster.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Before JP moved to the first line I had been toying with the idea of a Euro and NA top-6. Wonder if maybe that would provide a spark and a different look as far as match ups are concerned.

RNH – CMD – Yamamoto
Kahun – Draisaitl – JP

I know Tippett talked in TC about pairs, and this ignores LD/KY as initially set out, but he also mentioned the pairs would stay together until injury or they went stale. He seems to have 93-97 as a hill to die on, possibly even the Deutschland Duo, so this could keep them linked and still present a fresh look.

Primetime

I think it would be worth a try, but I also think JP brings the size to Line 1A that Drai does to Line 1B

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Agreed. That was something I’d considered. But it would be an enticing mix of speed, skill and at least marginal size on each line.

Last edited 8 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
Trevor457

Is it time to talk about RNH on the third line? He’s not putting up points playing with McDavid, and the 3rd line is bleeding. Problem is who replaces him on 1LW. Maybe give Neal another shot?

OriginalPouzar

There are about 200 posts in this thread talking about that…..

Of course, moving Nuge to center another line seemingly forces Drai on to McDavid’s line – Nuge or Drai seems to be a requirement…… (speculation).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Since when is 11 points in 13 games not putting up points?

Nuge’s career average p/gm is 0.74, so his current pace of 0.85 is a handsome increase over his historical production.

Should he maintain this pace, he may finally flirt with 50 points.

In all seriousness I truly believe the notion that Nuge isn’t producing is overblown. Seems based on narrow angles such as his 5v5 scoring or p/60 isn’t at some magical marker. But his actual boxcars suggest he’s ahead of his traditional production. Nuge can be a sneaky player who goes on a heater and racks up points. Plenty of games left to pump his stats.

Forced to be critical, I’d say he could do with a bit more engagement without the puck lately. I’m sure it will come around, he’s traditionally been good or better in this regard.

Regarding the RNH to 3C, I’ve posted a couple variations on flavours I’d try earlier today. Be interested to hear your thoughts. And no, I’d rather see Neal used sparingly at 5v5, even benched a game or few in favour of other options. He’d be more suited in the bottom six, and wouldn’t be horrible with Nuge and Kassian if his play improved. Looks too slow, unfortunately.

OriginalPouzar

Neal was absolutely awful last night – both on the PP and at evens. I’d be tempted to give Chiasson a game over him (with Jesse on PP1 – Chiasson’s 2019/20 success is a distant memory – like the PP year of Letestu).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yes, he was.

And neither are really included in my initial unicorn lineups.

leadfarmer

Korpisalo obviously never played outfield
that’s quite a goal to give up

leadfarmer

I think there’s a lot of teams that are not getting quality goaltending

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Weren’t there a lot of people and beat reporters predicting this before the season began? Sloppy play early due to long layoff and no exhibition?

Primetime

Am I the only one that didn’t know Dylan Wells was on our taxi squad?

OriginalPouzar

He wasn’t until today.

Skinner was assigned to the AHL.

I was wondering why there was no sign of Wells in Bakersfield – I believe he was hanging around Edmonton as management had the plan to make him the taxi squad goalie once Smith was activated (unless Grosenick cleared).

This makes sense as it gets the higher valued prospect, Skinner, to the AHL where he needs to be to develop.

Wells is a non-option and, if a real injury occurred to one of Smith or Mikko, I assume that Skinner will be called up (yes, there will be quarantine but the other goalie would “hold the first for a couple of weeks).

godot10

A balanced top six would be each line composed of a big player, an average sized player, and a hobbit.

Kahun, McDavid, Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Yamamoto.

Kahun would play the Yamamoto role on the McDavid line. He is a hard work, pretty diligent in two-way play.

Draisaitl and the two hobbits doesn’t work. Nugent-Hopkins adds nothing to McDavid’s game compared to what he add to Draisaitl’s game. And Draisaitl amplifies Nugent-Hopkins far more than McDavid.

jake70

In captain Picard voice….make it so.

ArmchairGM

When does Holloway’s season end? I.e. how soon can he come and help out the Oilers at 1LW or 3C? The kid’s on FIRE.

€√¥£€^$

If they make it all the way 10 April.

They have 8 games left in their regular season.

Last edited 8 months ago by €√¥£€^$
bmclav

Enough with these lines Tip! Put your best foot forward for a change and do what fans are asking

Nuge-Drai-Yamo
Kahun-MCD-Pulju
Neal-Haas-Kass
Nygard-Khaira-Archi

Nurse-Bear
Larsson-Bouchard
Laggesson-Barrie

Smith

***Turris, Russell take a seat

need two wins vs OTT next 2 games. Holland time to get on the horn and get this team a 3 Center, and a goalie before the season is gone. Hell I’d call up McLeod for 3C if haas trial doesn’t work but god damnit turris is done. Waive him. Don’t let him bleed another goal/game any longer for our 3rd line. Hopefully Smith plays like he did last year around this time when he went on that heater. Not looking good but 2 wins VS Ottawa and we’re above .500… cmon Oilers cmon Holland make a move at least to fix the 3rd line Center hole

Mr.Snrub

Terry Jones – Time for all involved to admit that Mikko Koskinen is not an NHL goalie.
General manager Ken Holland has to admit it to himself and get on with it.
Mikko Koskinen is not a National Hockey League goalie.
Once again. Slowly. Mikko. Koskinen. Is. Not. A. National. Hockey. League. Goaltender.

Tell us how you really feel Large.

Reja

Same as Terry after last nights game I lost faith in him. Is this team really s 6-7 team it’s time Kosh handed the keys back to Dad and Smith goes on a 10 game heater and gets us back in the race.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Hot take Mr Burns
I know its you under that fake mustache

Mr.Snrub

But it isn’t my take at all! It’s Terry Jones which i felt was somewhat newsworthy since he’s in the Hockey Hall of Fame and all. Don’t know why i’m getting down voted so harshly.

Munny

That’s because you’re a better person than those doing the voting. Kind of like none of us can understand serial killers, or it takes a liar to know one, etc etc.

Munny

I would have been more comfortable with his take if he had qualified his epithet with NHL “starter”. He is a tad effusive in his criticism, but hasn’t he always been that way?

SwedishPoster

Koskinen had a bad game. I maintain he’s a middle of the road starter but he needs a backup, as do all non elite goalies, who can a) give him a more reasonable workload and b)cover for stretches when he’s not finding his rythm. Ideally you have an above average backup when you’re #1 is average but Mike Smith will have to do. At least you have the chance to catch either goalie on a hot streak.

Having said that whoever is in net he’s going to have a rough time when only one of the top 4 D decides to show up defensively for 60 minutes. Tippett is still figuring out the best mix on D. I think it’s time for my four righty idea from before the season. Nurse-Bear, let Larsson babysit Barrie, for all his flaws Larsson at least bothers with coverage, and let whoever is feeling it out of Lagesson/Jones play with Bouchard. Didn’t love Bouchard’s game last night but there’s just too much quality there to not let him play through some early rookie-ing.
I think you can cobble together a decent group, a couple of these guys should grow as the season rolls on.
Russell can be the vet who fills in when the injury bug hits, I’ve never been on the Russell is always terrible train but when you can’t even trust him to cover the middle of the ice and get in passing/shooting lanes anymore he just can’t play.
Koekkoek is fading. Injury coverage at this point and if they need to send a D to the taxi squad he’s it atm.

Overall last night wasn’t half bad tbh. Puljujärvi looked like the player he was as a prospect and you could see some of the stuff that had people compare him to guys like Mats Sundin and Marian Hossa. If he can play like that more nights than not that’s a massive add to the top 6. Nuge back with Drai makes even more sense if Jesse can bring that game every night.
Or as been mentioned it’s a chance to go with the three big C setup.
It certainly creates a lot more options up front if McDavid and Puljujärvi can be that good together going forward.

OriginalPouzar

100% Koekkoek is at the bottom of that depth chart.

He was quite good in his first couple of games and showed heart and battle.

Unfortunately, I believe that was above his general level of abilities.

He only played 5 minutes or so last night and was directly responsible for two firedrills in the defensive zone – not with “egregious errors” but slight bobbles of the puck for turnovers.

He is definitely good 7D cover but, yes, given Russell can’t be waived because of his NMC, when they finally waive a d-man, its got to be Slater over Lagesson (and, of course, Jones).

dmjkrash

I would do what others in here suggest first. Switch Nuge and Kahun for a few games and see how Kahun fits with Connor and Puli.
if that doesn’t work, move Nuge to Centre his own third line. Could throw Archibald up there with Connor maybe or Neal in the role that someone not playing much for Tampa filled so well. I still feel Benson could fit with Nuge or Connor well too on the wing. Has strong hockey sense and might be enough to overcome his speed issues.
Bouchard is the real deal. He needs to stay in the line up somehow.
Arch-Connor-Jesse
Kahun-Drai-Yama
Nygard-Nuge-Turris
Khaira-Haas-Kassian

Nurse-Bear
Lagesson-Larson
Jones-Bouchard
Koekkoek-Barrie

OriginalPouzar

I would MUCH rather have Nygard on the 1LW than Archibald.

Not that Nygard is a “true first line player” but at least he’s a legit LW and has had success with McDavid (small sample). Archie is a fourth liner and that is where he can be effective.

Munny

VGK using the Oiler storyline from last night… should have copyrighted it lol.

€√¥£€^$
leadfarmer

and Lehner reportedly came to camp weighing 300 lbs

Fuge Udvar

If they are going to move Nuge off of the top line then he needs to move to 3C. The Draisaitl line is not costing us games. They are winning their goal share by more than a 2-1 margin. Asking more than that is unreasonable.

That black hole of a 3rd line is giving it all away again. Just like last year.

€√¥£€^$

I’d like to see this if Nuge is moved to 3C:

Neal-CMD-JP
Ennis-Drai-Yamo
Kahun-RNH-Turris
Nygard-Haas-Arch

I have more time for Turris as an RW than Kassian right now…

Foege Foegele Torpe

Khaira gets another game after last night’s performance no?

pts2pndr

Not sure Ennis is an NHL player anymore. He has not regained his speed and seems to be playing cautious since last years injury.

Bling

This x 100.

Reuniting DYN is not going to make Barrie and Russell better defenders, nor does it help the bottom six.

I would argue the top line is very unlucky. Nuge is completely snakebit evens, 97 and JP would have even more points if not for that. JP was also extremely snakebit up until two games ago.

Bling

Another thing:

Woodguy polling people asking if they would do

Bouchard/Bear/Broberg + Holloway/Savoie + 1st + Koski for Gibson.

My answer, based on below, is a huge no. Not even close.

Gibson is a great goalie, but that kind of trade is decade of darkness type stuff.

MushedPeas

This isn’t the Lindros trade ffs.

David

No no no a thousand times no. I know that everyone wants success now because of how long we have sucked and because with McDavid and Draisaitl, and four first overalls we should be great now but we are on the cusp.

Our competitive years were always going to be the back half of McDavid’s contract. Our strength will come from our homegrown defence if we keep them, and we finally have some good support cast pieces coming up front as well.

Let the bad contracts continue to come off the books, find a decent goalie and ride the pipeline that is starting to flow.

DieHard

Bear, Savoie, Koski and 2022 1st for Gibson.

pts2pndr

Exchange Barrie for Bear and I would do that deal. We still might regret that if Savoie continues to progress because he really knows how to put the biscuit in the oven!

Bling

Ashley:

I don’t know anything about goalies and you may be correct, that the book is out on Koskinen.

Let’s look at the last 3 seasons (including this one):

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-3-nhl-seasons-goalies-stats.html

Koskinen is at a career .908 save percentage as of now. I copied the data into excel and played with some different cut offs for number of appearances (i.e. at least 60, 70, 80, etc.). I have put Koski’s rank where he is relative to the number of goalies in that cohort.

Number of appearances cut-off | Rank

60 | 25/44
70 | 27/41
80 | 21/32
90 | 15/20
100 | 9/13

Solidly in the mid-to-lower rank.

Who is ahead of him in that 100 appearance cut-off?

Here are the names (in order of high save percentage to low save percentage):

Vasilevsky, 0.922
Hellebuyck, 0.917
Markstrom, 0.915
Price, 0.913
Andersson, 0.913
Varlamov, 0.912
Gibson, 0.912
Fleury, 0.910
Koskinen, 0.908

Summary: 8 guys ahead of Koskinen who have made at least 100 starts. Three have won Vezinas. Fleury has won multiple cups. One of them Holland tried to sign and wasn’t able to.

Caveat: Crude analysis, not accounting for quality of team, some good goalies who haven’t played as much as Koskinen, blah blah blah.

I have a difficult time believing that Koskinen is a problem based on these numbers.

While not elite, considering how cruddy and porous the Oiler D is in general, however, he may be quite good, and certainly better than we think.

Last edited 8 months ago by Bling
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Strong post.

My initial take on the goalies who rank above Koskinen is they often played behind stronger teams, and are known for being reliable at making big saves at key moments.

I kind of see some of this as being similar to what we saw with Talbot. Pretty good goalie who lets us down with some weak goals at inopportune times. Tasked with too heavy a workload and play suffers as a result.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Would very much like to see just how bad the Over-work-load is.
What are Koskinen’s
Amount of shots faced per game vs. other goalies on your list.
High Danger Shots faced per game?
I bet it’s high.
Gregor ran the #’s last year & did a piece, basic conclusion was Koskinen is an league avg Goaler getting paid a league avg salary.
Its the defense people & the forwards are a large part of the problem

Foege Foegele Torpe

Caveat:
When posters suggest that the Oilers need a top 5 goalie to compete.
This is 100% true,
But then again what was Vasilevskiy last season?

Reja

I wished the Oilers would have kept Maroon at least he didn’t need a 3 page written letter specifying in detail what his job was. I bet Connor misses him as well. Every championship caliber team needs a couple of likeable dickheads and I don’t think the Oilers have any at the moment. Bring on Smith to again save the season.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Patty played a simple game. Played heavy, went to the right areas at the right time with his stick on the ice. For a guy so maligned for skating too slow, he was often in the right spots at the right time. Could sustain a cycle on the boards or behind the net. And perhaps, most crucially, took issue with liberties taken by players — from Manning to Chara — in a timely manner.

Was he worth the rumoured contract extension? No. But for what he signed with after firing his agent, two seasons and two teams running, he’d be a bargain here.

Reja

I can’t remember what the asking price was but were they ever really going to resign him to a fair contract with Lucic and Kass already on the team.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

It was something like $3.5M or more with moderate term.

Word is, they shipped Maroon out because Lucic didn’t get along with him (per Burke, multiple times on OilersNow).

Oilman99

The Oiler’s weakness’s were exposed again last night. Dresssed 7 d-men and not one is a #1 or #2 quality player, and subpar starter goal tending. There is way too much helter skelter in the defensive zone. They will not be a true contender until they can assemble a true shutdown defence core. If you look at the previous cup winners and recent finalists it becomes clear they have miles to go. Dallas got all the way to the final because of solid defence, and goal tending, Tampa Bay won its solid goaltending, and defence. St Louis won with the best four defence in the league, and goaltending. The Oilers got killed earlier this season by Montreal because they have a solid d-core that didn’t give the OIlers a sniff in front of the net, and solid goaltending. This next week could be disaster, Ottawa beat the Canadiens, and only lost by one goal yesterday. This trip won’t be the cakewalk they had last week, and then they play Montreal again.

McSorley33

Trevor Zegras with a slow start to his pro career.

5 points in 2 games.

Granted, against the Condors.

OriginalPouzar

Tippett said last night that Haas was “unfit to play” and is day to day. I hope I’m not overthinking this and there isn’t meaning behind the term used.

He can’t be Covid sick again, can he? I don’t think that’s it or else there would have been players on the Covid-list due to close contacts.

Sierra

i don’t recall Haas being injured in a game. I’m wondering if there are lingering ailments from his Covid infection.

OriginalPouzar

If I’m not mistaken, any player that tests positive has to go through a VERY thorough medical before they are cleared to play including higher level heart analysis, etc.

Presumably Haas cleared all that last month.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Here’s hoping Haas isn’t a long-hauler.

Munny

There’s a couple of players last night that made me wonder whether or not they were sick…

I think we would have heard something by now though, if it was the Vid.

OriginalPouzar

and, of course, the NHL does make public those on the Covid list.

OriginalPouzar

The LD depth chart, in my opinion needs to be:

Nurse
Jones
Lagesson
Russell
Keokkoek

I just don’t know how to deal with the 4 right shot D –

Bouchard needs to play, that is obvious.

Larsson needs to play, he and Laggeson are playing well and he’s needed on the PK (in particular if no Russell).

Barrie needs to play – he is dynamic offensively and, if he can play his risk game if not playing against the top comp.

Bear clearly needs to play.

They have 7D that should play ever game (excludes Russell and Koekkoek) but they can’t run 7D/11F. McDavid and Drai each played almost 30 minutes last night and they are 3 games in 4 nights with travel east. This is not good.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Agree with your LD depth chart.

Big part of the problem is we’ve got Bear in the air.

Having Ethan back in the fold will help the defense immensely, as difficult a decision him being back will present to the RH mix.

GordieHoweHatTrick

I think they keep trying D by committee until Tipp is finally convinced that Bouchard can play in the NHL and accept a bit of wobble. Then you move Barrie and find a bit of RD coverage that is cheaper. They also have several LSD that can play 3rd pairing RD IF critically needed due to injury.

pts2pndr

Thanks! You see what I see. Barrie is not the answer.

quade

I feel like it might be hard to play even third pairing RD on LSD in the NHL…but you never know maybe we’ll get a Dock Ellis thing going for us… 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Bruce’s “number” on the Cults post-game pod was 0-1 – the number of combined hits and shots for Kassian and Neal last night.

Not good enough – not even close.

Neal even did his best Lucic-PP imintation – on that McDavid shot, Neal was NOT screening the tender but allowing Markstrom to see the puck and was standing in the shooting lane to the actual open part of the the net. If Neal is a foot to his left, he is screening Markstrom and that shot likely goes in (it was labelled and, with a screen, Markstrom likely doesn’t stop in).

In any event, Puljujarvi is earning that PP1 opportunity and neither Chiasson, Kassian nor Neal should be in the lineup next game. Ennis, Nygard, Haas.

Neal should join Chiasson on the waivers list and be available for assignment to the taxi squad.

Not good enough.

tileguy

With that lineup people will be asking “where’s the beef”

Elgin R

Time for the following:

  1. Sit Turris
  2. Sit KRusty
  3. Reunite the DRY line.

Tippet needs to quit playing vets in the hope that it is 2010. It is not so pressbox them.

Holland needs to quit losing goalies – put Turris on waivers.

OriginalPouzar

Have yourself a night Dylan Holloway.

Have yourself a weekend Dylan Holloway.

Have yourself a season Dylan Holloway.

Arrows directly up!!!!

Munny

Holloway Arrows…

comment image

hunter1909

Only days to go before the deadline

Hunter’s 1909’s 2020-21 Death March™ is back for another season

You can register and vote here:

https://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

Hurry! Regular Season Deadline is Approaching!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Who’s the winner from last season, Hunter?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Honest question for the group:

If Tippett were to reunite the DRY line and fireworks didn’t follow… what then?

Time for an attempt unicorns?

Scungilli Slushy

They will work better than how it is, they don’t have to be what they were to be better than this.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Yes. The current bar is surprisingly low, Leon’s fireworks notwithstanding.

McSorley33

Turris has 3 goals for and 12 against.

RNH at 3C would make this very close to even.

McDavid with JP
Drai with Yammo

They will outscore the opposition

RNH would ensure the 3rd line does not give it all back.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If the players “prefer winning,” as Tip quipped, they might have to accept that’s the optimal deployment. Some thin gruel on the wings at that point but the alternative is stark.

Here’s a quick stab at a potential unicorn alignment:

Nygard – CMD – JP
Kahun – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Ennis – RNH – Kassian
JJ – Haas – Archibald

Seems to be an okay mix of speed, skill and grits on each line while largely keeping pairs intact and the role players on the bottom line for limited deployment at evens. I’d have time for Kahun with Connor and whomever with Leon to jump start some momentum, whether that’s Neal or Nygard or X.

What I find perplexing is that Tipp will reunite 97 & 29 when he needs a late goal but not the DRY line mid-game, even just for a look.

McSorley33

Funny, I was going to suggest the same top 6.

I would like to see Nygard on the top line. Nygard needs to play with skill to be unlocked.

Reja

Would Ryan be happy with that in a contract year?

McSorley33

Well, his agent can’t be too happy now.

Nuge is not exactly setting the world on fire now.

But point taken…I would imagine both Nuge and his agent may want to play with McD

Scungilli Slushy

Should we care. The team needs to win. Nuge is not finishing.

I think he’s a bigger person than that anyway, but if he isn’t, too bad.

Of all Oilers he should the sickest of what we are re-experiencing.

Fuge Udvar

The weird thing to me is that the Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line is 7-3 in goals. People talk about the line like they have a 30 percent goal share when they are running at 70 percent!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Eye test vs the numbers, probably.

It’s like how people are bemoaning Nuge’s production vis a vis 5v5 p/60 where he’s got nearly one point per game (11p/13g, 0.85ppg).

My hunch is the focus has become too micro, not enough macro assessment.

Harpers Hair

Woodguy has a poll up on Twitter to take the temperature of the appetite of fans for a trade for the best goaltender in the league.

Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
Assume ANA had decided to go full Tambellini style re-build and would trade Gibson for good futures.

You are GM of EDM and they offer to do the deal for 2021 1st, their choice of Bear/Bouchard/Broberg + their choice of Lavoie/Holloway. (assume they take Kosi+ to make $ work)

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1358461888644829187?s=20

Harpers Hair

Michael Parkatti (@mparkatti) Tweeted:
1st, Broberg, and Lavoie and I’d do that. Don’t think you can jettison Bouchard. I’d go so far as saying Bouchard’s outside chance of being this team’s Duncan Keith within 2 years is like the only path I see to win a Cup during the 97/29 window.

https://twitter.com/mparkatti/status/1358464184560844800?s=20

Sierra

I make that trade. Gibson is that good and has a good contract. I’d try damn hard to get a 2nd round pick included with Gibson.

Material Elvis

Bouchard/Broberg + Holloway + a 1st? No way. Bear + Lavoie + a 1st? Yes.

Munny

Yeah, there’s a big difference there in value. I much prefer the second offer too.

McSorley33

Too steep for me.

This team currently would pick 7th overall in 21.

Plus lottery.

Scungilli Slushy

For a 27 year old goalie, that is a Chiarelli type team destroying trade.

That is potentially three first round picks. Gibson isn’t that good.

leadfarmer

gibson is that good.
Gibson is really good

Harpers Hair

Yes he is.

Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
Gibson has been the best goalie in the NHL for a while now. Except his hiccup last year, he’s Elite.
$6.4MM contract x 6 more years for a 27 year old is near perfect and value.
Here’s his Goals Saved Above Expected (as per https://t.co/y1qqNwmRVE) last 5 years and where he ranks https://t.co/V5z6RgHhwt

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1358461894072307714?s=20

leadfarmer

hes not getting traded
they didn’t trade him when it was obvious they needed a rebuild
they’re not trading him when the rebuild is half done

so the real question is what do you offer for Kuemper who has a year left or Raanta who is a UFA and always broken

Harpers Hair

Anyone can be traded if the return is significant enough.

Munny

In other words, if you overpay enough. Is that the path to success?

Harpers Hair

Sometimes it is if you’re dealing from a position with depth.

If the Oilers don’t make use of their excess at D and are afraid to lose a prospect winger, they’ll just keep spinning their wheels.

Munny

But you’re talking a blue chip D, a blue chip C/W AND a 1st AND our starting netminder AND another player to make the trade $s work.

AND we have to go two weeks with NO starting netminder (as do the Ducks)

The more I think of it the less I like the trade ideas.

I’m on record last night saying goalie has to be no 1 priority in the off-season, even if it requires something painful, but this seems downright masochistic.

Last edited 8 months ago by Munny
pts2pndr

They are still better than the Dys!

Material Elvis

Incredibly, some other team could have picked up JP for a relative pittance in the off-season. There must be a couple of GM’s who are kicking themselves for not giving up a 1st round draft pick.

Ryan

Full marks for Holland how he handled that situation… Probably also a bit of luck that other GM’s didn’t make a reasonable offer.

There are items on both sides of the ledger…

Chiasson contract… Kassian pact… Forsberg waivers. Smith as a backup.

lenko

When you can’t get out of your own end and lose most of the battles along the boards in your own end – you have a big problem!

JimmyV1965

This actually didn’t happen last night. Our transition game was very good. Some wobbly moments in the second period, but nothing like some previous games.

Yegfoundation

Did anyone else notice Nuge let Matthew T skate right by him on his way to shooting the puck into the open net?Poor battle and defensive determination. Oilers are fortunate that the ref lost sight of the loose puck and blew the play dead.

Last edited 8 months ago by Yegfoundation
ashley

Nurse is turning into an absolute stud. His defensive decisions are excellent. He’s a great athlete and very composed. He’s also finding some offense. I love his shot vs almost everyone else, most notably Barrie and Klefbom. Nurse keeps his shot low making it harder to save and also creating more rebounds. That’s important when shooting from 60 feet away. Barrie and Klefbom like to shoot crest or higher (or maybe don’t know how/don’t practice shooting low) which is much easier for the goalie to control the rebound.

Are we going to be able to afford Nurse? That bridge contract is looking like a bad decision.

Last edited 8 months ago by ashley
OriginalPouzar

I agree with the general analysis of Nurse – he has been so very very good last night.

Interesting time for this post though as, in my opinion, last night was one of Nurse’s two poor games on the year.

His decision making, and decisions to go walkabout, mainly in the offensive zone (which is odd) were off.

With that said, he has popped this season and is a legit top pairing d-man (no, not a #1 or a top end top pairing guy but a legit top pairing).

He’s at $5.6M for this year and next. I’m not overly concerned about his next contract – its a season and a half away and the raise cannot be all that much – he’s not going to get $7M plus I don’t think.

If he warrants $7M plus then, damn, we’ve got a player.

McSorley33

Milan Lucic has 3 goals and 2 assists 5 points…..at 5 x 5.

He is *15th* on the Flamers for TOI

Less than Sam Bennett. Less than Josh Leivo.

That is the bar Oiler forwards.

Dustylegnd

Evan Bouchard is going to be a top 2 D man for a lot of years in this league, his skating looks plus to me, rather than suspect, his IQ is off the charts and he is a sublime puck mover and has a bomb….kid looks to be the real deal……I have been a critic of Puljujarvi and would have never believed he could be as good as he was last night…he is a legit Top 6 player and if he can repeat this kind of performance he is a depth scoring game changer
No NHL contender can have Chris Russell on their team period….he is horrible..his calling card is defence because he has exceptionally poor gap control, which leads to easy zone entries coupled with his inability to make outlet passes, adds up to a shot blocking specialist because of the previously mentioned deficiencies…Barrie is a problem not a solution…thank goodness he is signed for 1 year and they can fire him into the sun…god awful defence
Koskinen has a terrible glove, struggles with positioning and rebound control and has an exceptional blocker….we are on the highway to hell with him as a starter and I have 0 faith Smith will be much better….Kyle Turris is not an NHL player anymore…he is as weak as a kitten and straight up lost out there
Next year we get Kleff back ditch Larrson and Barrie….Ride Nurse, Bear and Jones and Bouchard breaks through…..we have other left shot options in other leagues that may help….Goalie and 3rd line center is a must…is next year the year to buy out Neal??