The Toronto Maple Leafs played a great game Saturday night and were full value for a 4-0 win over the Edmonton Oilers. I don’t expect the home team to get shut out again and momentum this year lasts like a snow flake in a hot place, but that was a convincing victory on the weekend by TML. What changes will Dave Tippett make tonight?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: February report cards for the Oilers
- New Lowetide: Difficult season for trio of Oilers prospects playing in the AHL
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi must be on the Oilers expansion protected list after breakout
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ 2020 trade deadline splash: What we learned, a year later
- Lowetide: Revisiting our preseason predictions for the Oilers after 20 games
- Lowetide: Oilers begin to separate from prairie teams in Scotia North
- Lowetide: If Dylan Holloway turns pro this spring, will it be with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Could an Ethan Bear trade improve the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Is Oilers centre Kyle Turris playing himself out of the NHL?
- Lowetide: Tinkering with the Oilers’ top six — what are the best line combinations?
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg and the Oilers’ Leftorium
- Lowetide: Jujhar Khaira, a waiver reset and the Oilers’ future at No. 3 centre
- Lowetide: What to do with the Oilers defence now that the rookies have arrived
- Lowetide: Mike Smith’s return calms the Oilers goalie hysteria — for now
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway caps strong NCAA season with Hobey Baker nomination
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Evan Bouchard’s 2021 NHL debut — a shift-by-shift review
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers report card for January
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
OILERS AFTER 24 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 8-14-2, 18 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016-17: 12-10-2, 26 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017-18: 9-13-2, 20 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in 2018-19: 11-11-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2019-20: 14-7-3, 31 points; goal differential +11
- Oilers in 2020-21: 14-9-0, 28 points; goal differential +9
February was a love-in for the Oilers, what will March bring? A bunch of games in a very short space of time. A 3-6-0 start led to a 11-3-0 finish and we are here. If Edmonton can get 20 points from March, they’ll make the playoffs. Let’s have a look.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Calgary (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Ottawa, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary, Calgary (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Montreal, Montreal (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-6-1, 19 points in 16 games
- Current results: 0-0-0
My projections are conservative. The roster is back to being uncertain in areas, just like the beginning of the year. Coach Dave Tippett has to figure out his six most effective defensemen and there may be some tweaks on the skill lines. If my projections are correct, Edmonton will land on March 31 in or close to a playoff spot. The record will be 23-15-1, 47 points in 39 games. That projects to 67 points. April and May have a more favorable schedule, Edmonton should be able to secure enough points to win the day even if they’re shy of projections. March is a lion, coming and going.
OILERS 2020-21
This is five on five points per 60 (forwards); DFF% against all levels of competition (defense); overall save percentage (goalies).
The questions I have at the beginning of March pertain to Jones, Bear and Bouchard on defense. How will the coach use them? In a depth role, or a prominent one? Also a wonder is the timing of the next Mike Smith start and hot streak. Smith had a couple of burners last year and still finished with a .902 save percentage.
Forward questions include the four wingers playing on the skill lines. I think all four are the right choices, but are they in the right spot? Do the Oilers need a scoring winger more than a No. 3 center? March will bring many answers.
OILERS-LEAFS TRADES
Edmonton and Toronto have made several trades over the years, beginning with Reg Thomas for the draft pick used on Steve Smith way back in 1979. What was the biggest deal between the two teams? The best?
- August 22, 1979: Dealt F Reg Thomas for a 1981 fifth-round pick. Thomas would play 39 games in the NHL (he was a good WHA scorer) with Quebec Nordiques. Toronto dealt him in December 1979 for Dave Farrish and Terry Martin. Martin had a good run in Toronto. The fifth round pick was Steve Smith, who played 804 NHL games and is an integral part of Oilers history.
- March 8, 1982: Dealt Walt Poddubny for Laurie Boschman. Poddubny scored 184 goals after being traded, Boschman 190. Edmonton dealt him to Winnipeg for Willy Lindstrom, who hung around for a couple of Stanleys.
- September 19, 1991: Dealt Glenn Anderson, Grant Fuhr and Craig Berube to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Vincent Damphousse, Luke Richardson, Scott Thornton, Peter Ing. Edmonton gave up two key players from the 1980’s Stanley team, that’s painful. However, Damphousse had a great season in Edmonton, and would have a great career. The Oilers traded him a year after picking him up. Yeesh. Still, that was a nice return if you have to give up two HHOFers mid-career.
- March 23, 1999: Oilers trade a 2000 second-round pick and a 1999 fourth-round pick for Jason Smith. Great trade for Edmonton, Smith was a rock solid blue for years and was a member of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final team.
There are a few others, like the Nolan Vesey transaction, but this is the big stuff. Most substantial deal? Anderson and Fuhr leaving town. BIG trade.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kick out the jams and bring Monday to its knees. Well, maybe not but we’re awake and ready to talk Oilers trade ideas! At 10:20 we’ll preview tonight’s game with some trade talk. At 10:40, Andrew Peard from the Oil Kings broadcasts will talk about the new season and how important it is to draft eligibles. At 11, Jason Gregor from TSN1260 pops in with his thoughts on Saturday’s game and a preview of Oilers-TML. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide for your trade ideas and thoughts!
a little disappointed that we saw the effect Toronto’s speed has on the game and still nygard sits.
Those are two confidence shaking losses for the home squad.
If this was the DoD that would be the last we see of the team all season, as they slowly slip out of contention.
I’d like to think this team is different.
The Leafs sure have that backup goalie thing down. Both Campbell and Hutchinson are signed through next season. I wonder if Anderson will be ready to go Wednesday. Maybe he’s the weak link.
There is no weak link.
I think it’s is clear they are the class of the North.
And I don’t know fore sure what their lineup will be when fully healthy…..but I am not sure both Jumbo and Spezza can be hidden in the playoffs.
Will be interesting…..
They have weak links. Don’t listen to drunk Walter Matthau.
Our bottom 6 had them hemmed multiple times tonight. Connor had three breakaways. Drai 5 shots on net, three powerplays, like some of this is simply finishing, not making the extra pass, getting to the crease, fighting through checks, inches stuff and bounces too.
And then there was the big lead they blew to Ottawa two weeks ago. They don’t deal with adversity well. And adversity is everything in this League.
There is no spoon.
I’d like to see Tippett grow out that moustache, colour it in with some Just For Men, and reunite the DRY line!
Or just reunite the DRY line.
He’s gotta bring back that stache. Has to. No brainer. As with the other thing
Biggest problem with the Oilers having McD and Drai is no one else on the team plays the game. Our team-wide strategy is get the puck…give it to McD/Drai as fast as possible…then watch them play hockey. It’s like they all forget they are professional athletes and are incapable of doing anything besides passing to the two studs. Sure, get them the puck when you can because they’re magic…but don’t force every single play to them.
Jujar looks good right now because he is just playing hockey, not because he got better this year. The 3 & 4 lines look good because they depend on eachother to earn pucks and opportunities instead of depending on one guy over and over and over…and over.
TO played well defensively….but that’s easy to do when all you have to do is key in on 2 guys. Weak goaltending and no puck luck were the main reasons for this loss. It was NOT because TO is the more dominant team. They’re good…but not two games without a goal against good. I do agree with some on here that Tippy is getting outcoached this year…something that seldomly happened last year.
Make no mistake…Koski lost us this game. I’d put him on the market then on waivers. I honestly believe the salary space is more valuable at this point. I don’t think the team has much faith left in him either.
Bling
March 1, 2021 10:50 pm
Tough result but not calamitous.
The Leafs were very good defensively for sure, but we have seen the Oilers execute at a higher level than they have been showing. I think it’s fatigue related.
********
Pretty tough to execute when the other team is playing so well (ghahh I feel dirty) defensively.
Chicken or the egg?
The only fatigue I saw, was from watching their goalie let in yet another softie after having the run of the play.
Absolute killer
Fatigue can be mental or physical. Some of the execution was just off; we saw that last game as well.
I wonder if the top two lines are relying too heavily on the zone entries to run through 97 and 29. Gotta mix things up a bit.
There were also too many instances where it seemed like an Oiler forward was going in 1-3, 1-4. You don’t want to get caught against the Leafs in transition, but you’re not going to win many pucks in those odd-man situation down low, either.
I think we both agree,
Leefs puck pressure just bamboozled the Oilers in all 3 zones.
Would be nice to see one of the early chances get cashed.
That would undoubtedly change the complex of the rest of the game, not sure about the final result
The majority of our entries were along the wall pinned by a defender. The Leafs were rarely employing this approach/faced this situation. Not sure of the root causes but I hope the coaches figure something out for the next game.
There definitely was some underwhelming playing, but overall I didn’t think they played too badly. Lots of effort from the bottom 6 especially. It’s a different game if the first 2 shots don’t go in and Hutchinson isn’t playing like a Vezina candidate.
Exactly, and that’s coming off of Campbell’s Vezina performance.
Brown and Wilkins also surmising that the Oilers are going to carry three goalies on the 23 man.
Interesting
Couldn’t watch the last game.
But this game was decided by goaltending.
needed a couple saves in the first that Toronto was getting.
it’s easy to say Toronto defended well.
Truth is it’s easier to defend well when you have a cushion to work with.
The egg will crack next game.
Then we will see how good TO is defensively.
That’s what we said last game…
😛
Ya but, this game TO has to face the extra extra mad McDavid
Gregor asked Tippett about going back to the RNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto combo:
“We think about all the combos everyday.”
End of media avail.
ya, they shut er down pretty quick there after that one!
actually to be fair, i just listened again, the host did ask if there were anymore questions
That was the only substantive question asked, any follow up would have rung hollow because of the cliche reply that would inevitably follow.
Same scripted answer. Hope the reporters keep asking him why he refuses to do it.
yes
Exactly.
Tippett on the line swaps:
Not enough juice.
So we’ve gone from the blender to the juicer.
“Back to back shutouts” texts my Toronto friend. What is he talking about again?
That fool can’t count.
Three in a row, baby.
Just a little rut! Awesome!
Tippett: Top two lines are in a rut. Our group is in a rut right now. Our group doesn’t have juice right now. We’re lacking in emotion and intensity right now and it’s unfortunate because they’re against a team we want to be up for.”
When asked if he ever thinks about re-uniting Drai, he retorted that they think about all the possible line combinations all the time.
(and it definitely was a retort)
Imagine Drai and Nuge, I do
I think about them day and night, it’s only right
To think about the line we love, and hold them tight
So happy together
Koskinen’s body language is one of a clumsy 16 year old. Its amazing he’s even in the NHL.
You wouldn’t be saying that if he scored 4 goals..
Gold Jerry, Gold
You know what, I don’t think this double-righty thing is working out… (duh)
weirdly enough, they were getting better results with inferior d-men dressed playing on their strong sides.
also, wonder if their was a line that the oilers could have put together that would dominate any opponent that doesn’t have McDavid on it… A “best line in hockey”…
Nah… Tippett knows best that no such line exists.
I think its becoming obvious there is more to that line not being put together than Tippet refusing to do it, no?
I will admit I was not buying this ….
But……..
But Tip has done a lot of mixing here and it would appear you may be right.
There is clearly some sort of other impediment to reuniting one of the best lines in hockey.
Tippett hates winning. It’s obvious.
How is it obvious? The only evidence is Tippett being extremely stubborn anything else is just speculation. It’s dumbfounding and hard to imagine one person being so blatantly stubborn but it’s really the only thing that we can go with at this point.
That’s not the only thing we can go with at this point.
To say that its just Tip being stubborn is just as speculative as opining that there is something else going on.
We don’t know what we don’t know and we don’t know that this is just Tippett being stubborn and, to me, “being stubborn” doesn’t make sense – being stubborn for what purpose.
Its so dumbfounding that it gives credence to there being other factors at play.
Tippett specially said last year in the bubble the purpose was to establish two solid lines and not to be a one line team.
What are we suggesting here? McDavid went to the coaching and demanded to have Nuge on his line forever and he can’t play with Drai ever again? That’s completely ridiculous
Yes, that’s the narrative OP has been trying to sew for a while now. He wants everyone to believe something sinister is going on behind the scenes without any proof.
I didn’t want to give it any credence until Tippett’s retort to Gregor in tonights post-game media avail.
I still don’t… but there may be some smoke wafting.
Likely? I’ll say yes. Reasonable assumption? Probably.
Obvious? There’s still no actual evidence.
I don’t understand why Tipp doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt on this.
He successfully incorporated JP, Yamamoto, Bear, Jones, Lagesson, and Bouchard into the lineup.
He was patient with Larsson and Barrie, which is now paying dividends.
The team’s scoring ability is just fine, and for the first time in awhile there are good EV scorers up and down the lineup.
On this one item, the DYN line, people drill on him over and over and over again.
I feel bad for him, honestly. Did anyone come out and say, during the latest streak, “Hey Tipp, you were right about the lines.” Of course not.
Two games and we’re back to Tipp is a dummy for not reuniting the DYN line.
Crazy.
My theory is it’s 100% Tippett making the decision (ie – yes, he is refusing to do it).
But he’s doing it because he believes McDavid is the best player in the world. And he sees how it eats McDavid up to struggle (only 50%GF in the 2nd half last year, as you’re aware). All the while Draisaitl wins the Hart, playing with the two best wingers on the team.
It is kind of crazy to give one of your two elite centers BOTH of the best wingers available (did Pittsburgh do that with Malkin? maybe they did).
Anyway, I think it’s equal parts Tippett thinking his captain, and best player, needs SOME support to be that player. And Tippett reading McDavid and seeing how much it means to him to be those things.
This is of course just my guess and my parsing of the situation.
I think McDavid has requested Nuge be on his line. That’s the only explanation I can see for Tippet being so stubborn.
the only thing McDavid wants is to win. If that meant Nuge playing with Drai he would be all for it. The lineup decisions are 100% on the coaching staff. As much as I like Tippett as a coach he does make weird lineup decisions regularly
One would think but facts are leading to other plausible conclusions.
The facts are that Tippett in both the last two games has played McDavid with Kahun and Yamamoto as his wingers.
So it is not possible that 97 demanded that he only play with Nuge or Drai.
Can we end the conspiracy theory now?
I said “requested,” not “demanded.” McDavid’s a classy guy — he’d never demand that Tippett do something. Tippett can always change it up. But notice how the alternatives Tippett chose didn’t have a serious chance of sticking long term.
Nuge-Drai-Yam on the other hand does have a chance of sticking long term, and that’s the combo he avoided. (Until today)
Pretty sure we saw Nuge-Drai-JP last game in the third period.
And again today. As well as Kahun, Connor, and Yams.
These conspiracy theories are not supported by the evidence.
I don’t disagree. But…
Circumstances gather.
By eye, Tipp has rolled out almost every conceivable option that doesn’t include a DYNamite alignment.
Then the verbal at the end of tonights presser.
It is odd that he doesn’t go back to the well when the team is down and needs a goal. Even just once or twice, you know, to see if there’s any juice to be squeezed.
Tough result but not calamitous.
The Leafs were very good defensively for sure, but we have seen the Oilers execute at a higher level than they have been showing. I think it’s fatigue related.
The fatigue for the Oilers is just starting…March is brutal.
If they are fatigued -now -we are in big trouble.
Cuz, March has a lot of games .
Rob Brown just said he bets we will see two completely different lines up front.
Yup, Turris in for P. Russell and Nygard or Neal in for Ennis……
As in top 6.
Yes, I get what Brown was suggesting but be prepared to see Kyle Turris in the lineup.
Surely you’re OK with Turris for Russell.
Regardless whether it’s accompanied by DRY or some other top 6 realignment..
Who cares if Turris is in for P Russell on the 4th line. That’s so far from the top priorities
I believe the members of this community discuss and analyze every single portion of the the lineup every signed game day and off day including the 4th line.
I believe this community, as a group, has fairly strong feelings on Kyle Turris.
I believe much of this community “cares”.
I believe that topics and minutia of all priorities can be, and are, discussed on a daily basis.
Spec doing Spec things in this Nurse interview.
I think he thinks Nurse is dumb.
Given his replies and body language, it appears Doc thinks Spec is dumb.
And he’s smart enough to know…
Poised enough to win the exchange by being like dad, and keeping mum.
But he was the dumb one all along.
FYI: Darnell Nurse was awarded the Bobby Smith Trophy for “OHL Scholastic Player of the Year” following the 2012-13 season.
(shhh don’t tell Spec… all of us already know)
By the way, don’t you think it’s a bit of a tell that he takes more of the hard press conferences than Connor or Drai?
Nuge is usually the other fall guy… due to exceptional DoD experience.
I thought the Minnesota Wild crew were bad.
Took the Oiler crew 2 and a half periods to admit to what Zach Hyman had done to their team
Zach in firm possession of multiple deeds on Oilers players in the after life.
They have a very aggressive PK
Ha, Ha ..Hutchinson!
Just 3 or 4 more injuries to Toronto and we could get a goal.
Oilers: we want fans back to watch us play.
Also Oilers: *gets shut out twice at home by backup goaltenders*
I think there is a story here. They have been poor more often than not at home since arriving in the new building. Starting to think it may be poor choices on matching lines…
I watched the first period and the third, and honestly I thought the Oilers are just a little snakebit right now. They easily could have had 2 goals (one in each period) with the chances they generated.
Worm is gonna turn, and it’s gonna be fun hearing about what happened to the “dominant” leafs who had back to back shutouts when they lose to the Oilers in the playoffs. I hope …
Lol. Nice to see positivity. I’m pretty frustrated right now.
Well. No ego here. Beat by the better club. Some better goaltending would have helped but if you can’t score a goal in two straight games….with a couple of the best players in the game…with last change…you might need to adjust your attack. I’m no coach and have no answers for what I saw….Felt like the Oilers were just not good enough to win.
Their goalies were hot. Hutchinson looked like a Vezina winner tonight. Campbell looked like a Vezina winner on Saturday. Hot goaltending makes teams look amazing and the Leafs are taking advantage right now. The key is not to get too frustrated.
All three goals off the rush, I think
man they were good defensively with sticks.
defenceman with range, mmm, how many times did they poke check the puck away from McDavid
At even strength. Draisaitl has no one to pass the puck to. McDavid doesn’t pass the puck. Nugent-Hopkins is playing on the wrong line.
You know the reason, Nuge/Drai can’t play together unless we’re loading the three on one line.
McDavid doesn’t pass? McDavid? Who had to learn to shoot in this League because he always had a pass-first mentality? Who early this season was criticized for passing off too much? That McDavid?
C’mon, Godot. This is a massive stretch even for you.
A touch of hyperbole to make a point.
It just seems so obvious.
Top 2 lines have gone stale, and yet Tippett refuses to go back to the one combo he knows works.
How hard would it be to swap left wingers for a couple games?
Khaira was our best player tonight. Made some great plays to exit the dzone. Loving his game right now.
I think either Tippett is as arrogant as godot says he is, or there’s something going on behind the scenes.
Either way… Yikes.
I have him second behind Nurse tonight.
Its become quite clear that there is more to it than Tippett refusing to go back to it.
Tippett’s stubbornness on that line combination could be his hamartia.
Mike Smith with the 40 minute shutout streak…
And the Oilers participate in three shutouts in a row…
Just skip through the fineprint. Nobody reads that shit anyway.
This is what makes mini series so exciting. Brings some intensity to the regular season.
They blew it. Again. Played well though. They’ve made both goalies work for their shutouts. Credit where it’s due, Toronto is doing an excellent job at holding this team back for the most part. Still think with a little bit of puck luck the Oilers could very well being going into game three with 4 out of 6 points.
Shit happens. Wednesday night should be a doozy! They need a fire lit under their asses. Hopefully Smith can give them that.
Hyman is eating our lunch, playing smart, tough hockey, Oilers need to pony up, say goodbye to Hart talk for either of our superstars.
Yup. Clearly proves that other players should be included in Hart conversation. I don’t understand the reasons why entirely, but the Oilers two best players looked mediocre. One would think with last line change that shouldn’t happen. Tippet has not played a very good hard match game since his arrival, and it may be a tell as to why we have a poor home record. Just a guess.
6 periods no goals
Regression to the mean incoming.
This IS regression to the mean.
Now that’s just mean.
Considering the source, it carries no meaning.
The Leafs have had hot goaltending and some luck. The Oilers have had poor goaltending and no luck. I don’t think the Oilers are as bad as the two shutout losses make them appear to be.
It’s good that they are frustrated, frustration causes seeking for solutions
Well, I guess we know who is starting in net on Wed for the Oil…..
Please let it be Alex Stalock.
3rd stringers seem to work…..
I love me some angry Mike Smith, lol
He sparked some fire in the rest of them.
Not enough pissed of Oilers. Way to go Mike.
Yep. Other than nurse they don’t have that playing pissed off gear that can sometimes get a team out of a rut
Connor and Drai don’t have a pissed off gear?
And of course we will help them break a 65 yr old record
I think I heard the last team to get shutout twice by the Leafs went on to win the Stanley Cup, so…. Maybe history will repeat itself. Lol.
Fourth line tonight: not great but all right.
If the Oilers had the lead, then I’d say they played pretty close to great. Kept the puck in the opposite teams end for extended periods of time. Unfortunately in this one it took seconds on the clock but not in their favour.
3 in the last 5 would be a pretty epic comeback….
I’ve never seen a leafs team defend like this. Ever. They win the division easily if they get buy in like this
This is some of the best defending I have seen in a couple years. Toronto is good. Their structure excellent.
I haven’t watched the leafs much, but if they play consistently this well, the Oilers are going to have a hard time getting any more points from them.
Leafs have a way of making every Oilers pass look like a suicide pass.
We’re forcing them to skate miles… and they keep skating miles
IMO the Oilers should try a “brute squad” line. Jujar, McDavid and Puljarvi.
What if they were healthy?
Edmonton needs to make a statue for Yamamoto.
I’ve seen some lawn ornaments that might work…
So we’re gonna gnome there.
So tight checking
Need a goal? Put P Russel on ice…
He almost scored one once last season….
Ha ha. Yep…
Nothing working
Is this the worst game of Draisaitl’s career?
Nice to see some Bouchard PP time – wish P. Russell wasn’t on the ice for it….
Ugh, the Jesse shot didn’t go in? Great low wide side shot – nailed it but somehow didn’t cash.
Wow, they need to do scramble face offs drills, they never get the puck on face off scrums
Jujar! Jujar! Jujar!
I prefer it when we have the puck on the powerplay
Should have put Jujar out there.
Score. On. This. Fvcking. Penalty.
Tippet needs to cal, a timeout. Rest and get a goal.
Disappointing…no timeout called.
Drai been on ice for what 3 mins?
Tips doesn’t believe in timeouts. Has he used one this year? For the life of me I’ll never understand why NHL coaches refuse to call timeouts prior to 2 min left in the game