There are times when this Edmonton Oilers team reminds this grey-haired old timer of the 1980’s. Last night had all kinds of brilliance, including five points from Leon Draisaitl and three each for Connor McDavid and Tyson Barrie. The most memorable moment came on a dizzying series of passes that was part 80s Oilers and part Harlem Globetrotters. The Oilers, the 2020-21 edition, were toying with the Ottawa Senators. It was quite a night.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers GM Ken Holland shouldn’t wait for the deadline to make a trade
- Lowetide: Three Oilers prospects form hottest line in the AHL
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
- Lowetide: Why are some Oilers fans hesitant to give Darnell Nurse his due?
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers improve enough to beat TML it in May?
- Lowetide: Top trade targets for the Oilers at the 2021 deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021 trade value rankings
- Lowetide: February report cards for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Difficult season for trio of Oilers prospects playing in the AHL
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi must be on the Oilers expansion protected list after breakout
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ 2020 trade deadline splash: What we learned, a year later
- Lowetide: Revisiting our preseason predictions for the Oilers after 20 games
- Lowetide: If Dylan Holloway turns pro this spring, will it be with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Could an Ethan Bear trade improve the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg and the Oilers’ Leftorium
- Lowetide: Jujhar Khaira, a waiver reset and the Oilers’ future at No. 3 centre
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
OILERS AFTER 28 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 11-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2016-17: 14-10-4, 32 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in 2017-18: 11-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in 2018-19: 14-12-2, 30 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in 2019-20: 16-9-3, 35 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2020-21: 17-11-0, 34 points; goal differential +9
This year’s model leads the group in wins, is within one point of the leader in points, and suddenly leads the pack in goal differential. Music! What a great way to wrap up the first half of the season.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Calgary (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: Ottawa, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary, Calgary (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Montreal, Montreal (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-6-1, 19 points in 16 games
- Current results: 3-2-0, 6 points in five games
Suddenly the team is back on track in terms of my projections and has a fantastic nine point lead on the Calgary Flames for the final playoff spot (Sutter’s bunch have two games in hand). Things are looking better than they did one week ago.
LINES LAST NIGHT
- Shore-Khaira-Russell played 11:40, leading all lines in five on five minutes. They went 4-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-1 HDSC and 4-8 Corsi five on five. The big event from this line was a glorious play by Shore, who intercepted a puck in the neutral zone, drove in on a breakaway with Khaira racing to the net, and sent a lovely pass that Khaira placed in the net.
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto played 11:36, going 12-2 shots, 2-1 goals, 6-1 HDSC and 17-8 Corsi five on five. This is thunderbolts and lightning (very very frightening) when this line is at their peak. LD had 3-2-5, McDavid 1-2-3 while Yamamoto was scoreless despite two HDSC scoring chances. They could have scored four more goals in all honesty. All of the Senators players hate them with the fire of a thousand suns, and they can get even. All they have to do is wait until 2035 when McDavid begins to slow down.
- Ennis-Nuge-Puljujarvi played 11:33, going 3-8 shots, no goals, 4-1 HDSC and 7-11 Corsi five on five. I thought this line had plenty of jump and was hoping they would cash (JP had some great looks and rang the goalpost chime) but it didn’t happen. Nuge had a PP assist, plus 2 HDSC and Ennis was a buzzsaw with plenty going on (one HDSC). I like this line just not sure they’re going to score enough to stay together.
- Neal-Haas-Chiasson played 10:21, going 6-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-1 HDSC and 10-7 Corsi five on five. Neal scored a nice goal on a feed from Chiasson, the old wingers are having decent seasons offensively at five on five.
PAIRS AND GOALIES
- Nurse-Barrie played 16:19, going 18-4 shots, 3-1 goals, 7-2 HDSC and 23-11 Corsi five on five. Benefiting from playing with the McDavid line, Nurse with a goal plus an assist (he scored that insane passing goal) and Barrie had three helpers. I don’t think this pairing is going to part for some time.
- Lagesson-Larsson played 17:34, going 6-7 shots, 1-0 goals, 4-1 HDSC and 14-14 Corsi five on five. Lagesson had one great scoring chance, the rest of the time things were quiet on the western front. Handled the Dadanov line effectively, going 1-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC. Rocking chair pairing.
- Russell-Bear played 13:19, going 3-5 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC, 5-10 Corsi five on five. Bear made some nice passes and had one good look, but at least twice he cut off a rush into the offensive zone in order to return to his spot on the defense. Russell was his usual self, defensively effective but short-circuiting breaks out of the zone regularly.
- Mike Smith was rock solid again, stopping 21 of 22, .955. It wasn’t a difficult (four HDSC) evening but Smith looked in control the entire way. Now at .927 for the season.
HALF THE WAY
We are halfway through the season, a great chance to review the numbers and see how they shine. I have the actual factual numbers below (boxcars, plus five on five goal differential) and let’s begin with the skill forwards.
- Connor McDavid 28, 16-32-48 [29-21, +8]
- Leon Draisaitl 28, 14-28-42 [30-12, +18]
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 28, 10-11-21 [19-19, even]
- Kailer Yamamoto 28, 7-7-14 [21-16, +5]
- Jesse Puljujarvi 27, 7-3-10 [12-14, -2]
- Dominik Kahun 25, 4-4-8 [12-13, -1]
- Zack Kassian 13, 1-2-3 [6-9, -3]
McDavid is threatening 50 points in 28 games, Draisaitl’s numbers are fantastic across the board. Nuge’s boxcars are good even as he struggles to score five on five and the young skill wingers are progressing. Kahun and Kassian have not delivered enough offense to remain on skill lines. Let’s look at the support forwards.
- Alex Chiasson 20, 5-4-9 [6-5, +1]
- Jujhar Khaira 19, 3-5-8 [8-8, even]
- James Neal 15, 3-3-6 [6-5, +1]
- Tyler Ennis 19, 2-4-6 [8-8, even]
- Josh Archibald 25, 4-2-6 [10-14, -4]
- Devin Shore 14, 1-3-4 [2-7, -5]
- Kyle Turris 21, 1-3-4 [7-17, -10]
- Patrick Russell 5, 0-1-1 [2-1, +1]
- Gaetan Haas 13, 1-0-1 [2-2, even]
- Joakim Nygard 5, 0-0-0 [1-2, -1]
Lots of good news here, led by Alex Chiasson who has cobbled together a rock solid first half of the season. The biggest turnaround has come from Jujhar Khaira, who is playing the best hockey of his career. His play at center this season has been timely and impressive. Neal, Ennis, Haas have helped too, and notice Patrick Russell +1 in his games with the team. The support group isn’t dynamic, but is more effective than one year ago. Even Kyle Turris seems to have found a home (on the wing). Here are the blue, what a crazy first half of the season.
- Tyson Barrie 28, 3-19-22 [27-25, +2]
- Darnell Nurse 28, 7-12-19 [36-28, +8]
- Kris Russell 19, 0-6-6 [8-8, even]
- Adam Larsson 28, 2-3-5 [16-17, -1]
- Evan Bouchard 12, 1-3-4 [5-6, -1]
- William Lagesson 9, 0-2-2 [6-2, +4]
- Ethan Bear 16, 0-2-2 [11-11, even]
- Caleb Jones 14, 0-1-1 [6-8, -2]
- Slater Koekkoek 17, 1-0-1 [4-12, -8]
Darnell Nurse is having an exceptional year, although many Oilers fans and observers are hesitant to give him his due. Tyson Barrie appears to be a lock for a 40-point season and a short season at that, may I say. Adam Larsson has been exceptional, William Lagesson solid and both Bear and Jones end the first half finding some good traction after a difficult first half of the year. Here are the goalies and five on five save percentages.
- Mike Smith .934
- Mikko Koskinen .905
- Stuart Skinner .903
Mike Smith has been a Godsend, no way around it. We’re halfway through the season and he has been consistent and owns an 8-2-0 record with two shutouts. Exceptional. Koskinen had a tough row to hoe early, being the only real option. His first half record (8-9-0) is not good and he has had some difficult moments. Stuart Skinner won his only start.
The Oilers may sign Barrie and Larsson and run them RH side with Evan Bouchard next season, but that doesn’t make it the right thing to do. Bear is not a big defenseman, that’s clearly the template for the Holland Oilers, but he is an effective one. I don’t believe Ken Holland is so rigid that he would send away an inexpensive defenseman of true quality based on size. After all, Kailer Yamamoto is on a skill line.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We have a big show this morning at TSN1260, led by Dan Ralph from The Canadian Press who will discuss the massive news surrounding the CFL/XFL negotiations. Dan is a terrific guest and very knowledgeable about the league. Frank Seravalli from TSN will have the latest trade deadline rumours, including Jake DeBrusk and Eric Staal. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I’m not sure which is worse – HH obvious troll jobs or OP constantly complaining about it while constantly baiting HH to troll more.
Sometimes this place is a wasteland.
New for The Athletic: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dominik Kahun, Dylan Holloway and a perfect storm on the Oilers’ left side
https://theathletic.com/2438188/2021/03/12/lowetide-ryan-nugent-hopkins-dominik-kahun-dylan-holloway-and-a-perfect-storm-on-the-oilers-left-side/
Hey Bruce,
If you read this, I just read your CoH article, great read! I am completely off social media and for some reason my EJ profile is all messed up, so I figure this is the only way I can provide feedback to you. …
A couple of points, Max Gildon is Florida property. The Panthers share Syracuse with TB, so no room at the Inn for him. He is an excellent add for Bakersfield, he looks really solid as a rookie pro (great wheels, very good size and moves the puck effectively). I expect he will make his NHL debut by next season.
Secondly, Brad Malone (I know AHL contract only, but is a big missing piece for the team) along with Quine are out with injuries. Also Safin didn’t get a shift in the 3rd, I am wondering if is injury or if he just is not trust my by the coaches…
Mcurdy apologize if mistake spelling that but he is a great dude my cousin worked or has worked for years with him at Edm Space Science Center.
Any chance Florida isn’t seeing what we have and we can snag him on the cheap?
Very doubtful, plus he is a LD.
I am having a hard time believing that we can trade for a 3C who is playing better than Khaira right now. I’ve been really hard on him this past year and he has been blowing me away. Who out there has better stats? And he’s doing it with different linemates too.
Would love to have Staal on this team but Staal almost seems a luxury given what Khaira has accomplished. And the Oil seemingly have so man 4Cs one wonders if they’ve breeding like gremlins after midnight.
As for the top 6, I don’t think there’s any way Holland would “plan” for Holloway to play wing when college is done. Too much of an unknown to bet on. So…
I think Holly should go LW hunting. Snipe hunting.
Holland would make a trade, if it wasn’t a rental, or that seemed to be the message he was sending on ON.
So Debrusk is a possibility, although it comes from outside Holland’s circle. I thnk he’d have to be pretty cheap for Kenny the G to bite on him just because the context is “project” and entails extra risk.
Who else, do you think?
Getzlaf at 3C (would need Anaheim to take Neal as part of the real deal) ?
I don’t see them doing that deal..
All this speculation that the Oilers are going to tumble down the standings due to up coming schedule.
At the same time, the flames, coming off of three full days off and the energy of a new coach, sneaks out a one-goal win against a team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, their 6th in 10 and having traveled last night while losing an hour – that’s a perfect Sutter game.
that’s a cherry wood frame. the correct question is which top 4 North team has the most games left against the bottom feeders. Yeah. That’s Edmonton
That’s only if you count Calgary and Vancouver as bottom feeders.
But we all know that Sutter will grind Calgary to first in the division and Vancouver will unleash Brogan Raffretiel.
Your move McDavid
Nothing you say will change the fact that the Flames OUTSHOT Montreal by ELEVEN!1!!
Are we agreeing on facts now?
Huh, well that’s a step.
A classic Sutter win.
2-1.
For those of you scoring at home…Flames outshoot Montreal 29-18.
Plan the red mile, it’s a 1 win streak.
Flames outshot Montreal by 11 and won by a goal!
Plan the parade, Flames fans!
Well, judging by that 3rd period, the dead cat ain’t gonna bounce very high,
Pray Markstrom is going to hold up, Flames fans.
Flames outshot the Habs 9-7 in the 3rd period despite score effects.
And the referees missed what should have been a 4 minute high sticking penalty on Lindholm who was cut on the play.
The game was never in doubt from start to finish,
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Score effects from a dead-tired team. Well that’s a new one.
Still demonstrating that lack of critical thought I see.
Never change HH. Not that you’re actually capable of getting smarter.
Oil are gonna feast on the slimy Phlegms this season sorry HH/Dead Cat Bounce/ DSF
All replies to DSF should be directed to the current state of his beloved Canucks.
Don’t give him the rest of the league to argue against the Oilers.
“Flames are good”. Yeah, bad news for your Canucks.
Doubleplusgood
Shouldn’t reply to him period. It’s the attention he seeks.
Well that was the plan last year, for Markstron’s team I mean.
Thank you Woodguy for your updates
Thanks to everyone else tossing stats to us that you take time to find
Thanks to Swedish and those that watch far away games and give us updates
I had hoped to do ‘clear win’ updates for this season, but you know. Looking at every game for 2 goal plus wins just didn’t happen :). No G Money scraping skills.
Clear wins would be regulation wins by more than 1 goal with no empty netters. Basically dominant wins..
But as Woodguy pointed out a few days ago, and I always pay attention to, regulation wins point in the same direction.
Teams with high lost games is also a strong indicator of strength in that they are clearly losing games.
If a team is squeaking games out in OT (as the Oilers have and then missed playoffs or been too weak to advance) they are not a strong team, not worth playoff units. Although anything can happen, we’re talking about projecting strength.
The second easy tell is goal differential. At the end of every season you can basically see team strength based on it. Almost every team in the playoffs is positive, those out negative.
I know it’s obvious why that is, outscore and win, but surprisingly when we hear prognostications near playoff time it isn’t mentioned much. As much as you would think.
So what if we took reg wins minus losses and divided by games played? Is that a good measure of team strength?
For each division top 3 teams no rounding:
Team Strength
North
Toronto .32
Winnipeg .11
Oilers .29
East
NYI .37
Washington .23
Pittsburgh 0
Central
Carolina .23
Tampa .4
Florida .26
West
Vegas .26
St Louis .07
Minnesota .12
Interesting.
What if then it was multiplied by goal diff?
North
Toronto 8.64
Winnipeg 1.15
Oilers 10.29
East
NYI 7.4
Washington 1.38
Pittsburgh 0
Central
Carolina 5.98
Tampa 13.6
Florida 3.38
West
Vegas 5.72
St Louis .07
Minnesota 1.44
It’s interesting but does not account for differences in schedule especially in a truncated season.
What did you multiply by goal differential?
I was trying to follow along but it didn’t add up.
The Toronto ROW per game and final number is correct I think.
But I think the Oilers ROW per game is wrong (should be .18 vs .29).
Also, even with the posted numbers,
Toronto .32 x 27
vs Oilers .29 x 10
But the Oilers come out ahead?
So two things that don’t seem right to me.
(another thing, inclusion seems to be based on top 3 in actual points rather than winning %; I think Montreal should be 2nd in the North ahead of both Winnipeg and Edmonton, by this number)
The final numbers for the North should be (I think!):
Toronto 8.68
Montreal 2.69 (nice)
Oilers 1.80
Winnipeg 1.07
Hence the question.
If a troll cries out for attention but everyone ignores it, does it make a sound?
Oilers destroy an opponent from start to finish – not a post during the game or post.
The one team with a possible chance to knock the Oilers out of a playoff spot, as remote as the possibility is, is winning a game and its full play by play.
Anyone surprised.
The Flames crossing center with a two goal lead in the 3rd, strangely.
Leafs and Jets go to OT.
Leafs dominated but Hellebuyck stood on his head again.
Nylander could easily have scored 5 or 6.
Marner could win a Selke Trophy soon.
Matthews scores in OT…Leafs win.
Yep, that’s the difference between To (and Edm) and Wpg (and rest of North) – great players in OT win it.
Not really worried about the Selke and really doubt it’s going to Canada.
Better bait would be Patrick Kane stealing the Hart.
Guy is having a crazy season
He won’t be stealing it…he deserves it.
Chicago is missing its top two centres and just keeps willing the Hawks to win.
Hi Art!
Period’s over half over and I still haven’t seen Sutter take a shift…
Guy’s lazier than Draisaitl.
Sutter hockey now in Calgary.
Montreal has 2 SOG.
Yeah, pretty obvious it’s Sutter hockey now: his team has no goals, as per usual.
And they’re playing a team who played a late game on a B2B and had to travel. Doesn’t get any easier, except it’s the hapless Flames.
That’s the way Sutter has always coached…choke the life out of the game and wait for a break.
Two Stanley Cups to show for it.
That’s exactly the way you post too!
No Stanley’s though, despite your ultra-boring life-choking game.
Shots are tied. Sutter hockey is over quickly I see.
Nearly half way through the game and neither team has double digits in shots yet, lol.
I can hear the Flames fans next door… snoring.
Yep.
And it’s 2-0 Flames.
Capitalized on 2 Montreal mistakes…just how Sutter likes it.
This man is crying for help.
Capitalizing on mistakes made by other teams is Sutter thing? Wow. Sutter better hope other teams don’t figure his unique strategy out!
If only Darryl could play a tired team on the back half of a B2B every night, he would be Harper’s Hero!!
Well until another team wins a game and then Squirrel-brain would be panting over that team, well until another team wins a game, and then the squirrel would jump on that bandwagon, well until another team…
Puppies have a longer attention span and FAR more loyalty.
I gave up religion when I developed the ability to exercise critical thought.
Obviously your results vary.
I’m afraid we’re gonig to need to see proof of this alleged and extremely unlikely ability.
I mean it’s been twenty years since I first read you on Oilfans and HF and I don’t ever recall you demonstrating thought, much less critical thought.
Flames outshooting Montreal 20-11 after two periods and leading 2-0.
How many goals will the Habs score if they get 5 shots in the third period?
It’s possible they could get 5 goals on 5 shots. Why do you ask?
Yeah..Markstrom is known for falling to pieces.
I don’t think he is known for falling to pieces. Not sure why you think that.
Not sure why you can’t recognize sarcasm.
It’s hard to tell with you what’s sarcasm vs you being confused.
Were you being sarcastic when you blamed Broberg for 2 goals against when he wasn’t even on the ice?
Were you sarcastic when you said Weber is a LHD?
Were you sarcastic when you said Brogan would be a 2nd line D?
Lucic destroys Anderson in a fight.
Have no fear Smith is here at 8-2 4th in save percentage 7th in goals against he dragged us out of the sewer. When’s Stalock getting his games and if he passes the Tippett test I don’t think will see Kosh unless there’s a injury.
I am very confused by all the hate for Barrie…
Firstly, he chose US in the off-season. He’s a big-name player and he came to us…that says a lot about him and our team. It also feels f***ing great to have a big name player choose us to play for. I think people have already forgotten this fact.
Secondly, he took a discounted contract to come here and prove himself. In fact, he took quite a bit less than what he was expected to get in the off-season. This means he likes what we’re doing here and he wants to prove he can play with elite players still…which he has done. Again, that feels great to have an outsider come here because we have talent that’s desirable to play with and he’s willing to sacrifice money to make that happen.
Thirdly, he came here to prove he can still put up points like an elite offensive defenseman. He has done just that as he’s on pace for 40+ points in this shortened season. That’s good…best we’ve had in an Oiler uniform for a verrrrrrrry long time.
Lastly, he has come in and played EXACTLY as advertised. He’s not very good in the D-zone, but plays like a 4th forward in the O-zone. He’s also a vet now…and I’m not positive on this…but I would bet Bouch and the other young guys have learned a ton from watching him and practicing with him. That’s a lot of behind-the-scenes value that doesn’t get advertised or noticed by the majority of people.
The only thing I do understand from all the haters is we do not need to, nor should we, sign him to a team-crippling contract after this season. He is not worth 5mil per season during a flat cap era. If a team wants to sign him to something like that…let them. But if we can sign him to a 3×4 or a 4×4…I say do it.
Can you see anything else on the market for that kind of money and equivalent talent…that also is willing to come and play here? I doubt it. We need to stop hating players that are good for our team just because they aren’t homegrown.
I will not question Ryan Rishaug’s hockey IQ.
I will not question Ryan Rishaug’s hockey IQ.
I will not question Ryan Rishaug’s hockey IQ.
I will not question Ryan Rishaug’s hockey IQ.
I will not question Ryan Rishaug’s hockey IQ.
Man the Oilers’ mainstream media, Spector, Rishaug, Matty….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvzFt8PPXvE
It extends even further.
Since the demise of TSN 1040 in Vancouver, I’ve been sampling the sports radio offerings in a variety of cities and have to say much of the programming is brutal and is more focused on the egos of the hosts as opposed to imparting any real insight.
One delightful exception in Edmonton is the Lowdown with Lowetide.
As an aside, for those on the west coast, the TSN 1040 crew is making a comeback in a couple of ventures including Don Taylor reprising the old Sports Page show on CHEK TV co-hosted by Rick Dhaliwal who is likely the most connected reporter on the west coast.
Sports Page is legendary in B.C.
Matt Sekeres and Blake Price, who in my opinion, are the gold standard of sports radio hosts in Canada have also launched a new podcast with assistance of the relationships they’ve developed with major sponsors over the years.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/don-taylor-returning-tv-chek-dhaliwal-tsn-1040?auto=true
Scratch Jordan Binnington off the FA list.
Dammit. That was the only goalie I think was worth getting this offseason. All the rest are middle-of-the-pack at best…
If we can get elite talent in net…this team skyrockets.
I would love to have the goalie but not the contract.
Long term contracts to goalies, to me, are super risky unless we are talking about the super elite with lots of runway left (Andrei V., Tuka Rask back in the day, etc.).
I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for that contract – he’s been .912 and the .908 in his two seasons since his out of nowhere run.
I agree…6mil seems like a bit much. But he was going to get a raise and anything less than 6 doesn’t get it done I don’t think.
This is why I’m sort of put-off about the goalies available this year. Combine the surplus of cap we have and the glaring weakness at the position…we could make a huge mistake and spend 5 mil on a “meh” goalie….and that’s all I see available.
I’d rather have Bennington at 6mil per season than any of the others available at 5mil per season.
Who else would you want? Freddy Anderson is the next best but he’s getting old and I don’t think he’s really that good of a goalie…
I know that Holland offered alot for Markstrom but, generally, that’s not his MO – he generally doesn’t shall out big money to try and get elite tenders. I believe he’s been on record with the opinion that there isn’t a ton of different between the top few tiers of the tenders.
Lots of “meh” tenders were signed this off-season, for far less than $5M – Benning and, in particular, Dorion made massive mistakes when they signed their tenders and that was posited on the date of signing by many.
I don’t know what Holland is going to do with the tending in the off-season – there are many different types of options, including trade.
I also don’t agree with the “surplus of cap space” – yes, there is cap space but its required to sign (1LW – Nuge or replacement), 2LW (missing – maybe Holloway on the cheap), 2RW (Yamamoto), 2RD (Larson/Barrie or replacement), etc.
He’s got cap to spend but most of it is re-signing or replacing current players.
Great discussion as always.
I want to chime in on Barrie. I think he deserves kudos for playing well in that top pairing role. Is he perfect? No, but he adds a tremendous amount of unpredictability to the attack.
For too many seasons, the Oilers have had two players playing defence and three players playing offence. That is a gross simplification, but Barrie (along with a dramatically improved Nurse) have allowed them to attack as a 5 man unit with regularity.
Regarding whether or not Barrie should be signed, to me it depends on a few factors:
1 – What is the cost of acquiring a young-ish, cost-controlled goaltender? This is the piper that will have to be paid at some point. The Oilers can either a) pay the asset cost now or next season or b) lose critical games. One way or another, the price will be paid.
2 – What is the probability that Konovalov, Skinner, and/or Rodrigues become effective goalies? I have my doubts that even one will become a top 10 level goalie.
3 – In a flat cap world, where is the salary inefficiency? The trend is towards young players getting paid. Perhaps this means that effective players in their late 20s and up become better values. Does that make RNH, Barrie, and Larsson more palatable?
We are all fearful of an older player falling off a cliff. In fact, this can happen with a young player as well, particularly given the premiums that are now being paid.
My preference is to stick with our young players, but dogma can kill you.
That’s is a very nice post, thanks.
Here are my thoughts:
1–It should be a general rule that a veteran goalie is better behind a young team and a young goalie is safer behind a veteran team. I think play musical old goalie till the situation resolves itself cheaply.
2–I don’t think anyoine is convinced any of them will make the NHL much less become top 10.
3–The inefficiency is paying mid-level players. Get as many stars as you can fit under the cap and fill in. Avoid the 3.5 to 5.5M range unless it means a discount or an ELC. As for age/timing, the key is in the timing of their performance. If they can have a “contract year”, they get paid. So find the ones where it was only a blip, same as it ever was. Make good bets for cheap wherever possible.
My god Spector – what a question. Asked Holland if he wasn’t “dollar in and dollar out” at the deadline like the rest of the season so he could get more done – not understanding at all that LTIR means they aren’t accruing and banking any cap space (which is why teams can have more cap space as the season goes on).
I know that not everyone understands how this works but a credentialed media person that is oblivious to this is boggling.
———————
Holland likes the team’s depth at most positions so isn’t looking to acquire depth – any acquisition would be more of an impact but he mentioned numerous times how hard it would be to make trades – I can’t imagine much happening at this point.
Over the next few weeks he’ll talk to Holloway and his agent and decide if he’s going back to school next year or if he wants to turn pro. If they sign him, they’ll have to decide whether he goes to Bako or Edmonton but he’ll discuss that with Tip, etc. as he will want him playing, not on the taxi squad – don’t know if that’s Bako or Edmonton at this point. He will do what’s best for the player which is why they haven’t spoken at this point – he wants Dylan totally focussed on Wisconsin, the Big Ten and the Frozen Four. He’s thought about it internally but won’t discuss with Dylan until they are done. He’s open to everything as long as its in the best interest of the player.
Rishaug asked about a Barrie extension – Holland talked about the standings and where they are in the standings will somewhat dictate. His first goal is the playoffs and to do well in the playoffs. If there is a losing streak and things fall off the rails, they’d need to make decisions on UFAs. He hasn’t reached out to Tyson (or anyone else). At some point, he’ll talk to his agent. If they looked like they were missing the playoffs, he’d be under pressure to figure out re-sign or trade but isn’t now. The takeaway for me is that, given he’d think about trading him if they were missing the playoffs, Holland hasn’t decided that he’s a definite re-sign to be part of the team going forward.
Bouchard is not going to the AHL this year – he’s passed that.
I appreciate this summary, thank you
Not saying this is the case for Spector.
But I think media sometimes ask questions they already know the answer to for the benefit of your average fan who doesn’t understand the whole picture with regards to salary cap so they hear it from the horses mouth
Yup. This is exactly why Spector asks this question. I would bet money Holland’s answer appears verbatim in quotes in his next column.
That was 100% not the case for Spec and his question – he clearly had no idea how cap accrual works.
Sorry OP but I listened to that interview as well & I am pretty sure that he was fishing for his quote.
I used to write for magazines & newspapers. It’s how opinion pieces are written. You plant the question and let the guy you are interviewing write your column for you.
Spec uses this technique all the time & I have even heard him credit Matheson for teaching it to him.
It’s the only technique he basically knows, but he doesn’t use it the way Matheson did. Spector pre-determines what he wants to write in his column and then tries to force the interviewee to respond in a manner that supports Spec’s narrative. He’s fucking awful.
Agreed that Matheson has more honesty in his writing. I was just commenting that Spector asks questions to get quotes he can work into his columns. It is a lazy way to write and Spec is mostly lazy.
BTW his column is up over at SportsNet.ca &, of course, the quote on the TD is there.
That doesn’t surprise me, never doubted your analysis. It’s Spec through and through. Was just worried an enterprising young wannabe reporter might pick up what he thinks is a good tip.
Semi-big deal, I think, that Holland hasn’t put the kibosh on Holloway playing NHL games this season.
It would be incredibly easy for a GM to shut that down, if he believed the player wasn’t ready.
Tip mentioned today that Kass still needs to get doctor clearance for full battle drills. He will likely go on the trip with the team.
If Archie is out, he will be a big add to 3RW. If Archie is back, I wonder if Kass replaces Shore or Neal? I lean towards Neal right now but we’ll see.
The issue there is Kass playing left wing. I fear coach will move Archie to the left side (as he’s moved over before) – I’m not sure Archie has been as effective on the left side.
An excellent set of comments today by many posters. Thanks to all (particularly Cassandra). My two cents worth on the half season:
The PK is a weak spot and does not look right to my eye. Currently 21st’ish at 77% but that is 3 or 4% worse if the league worse Senators PP kills are excluded. Bring back RSheahan.
I have loved watching Barrie (pronounced Berrie by most commentators). Maybe we can’t resign him but Bear, Jones, Bouchard, Lags are long on potential but do not seem a Stanley Cup winning group to me. Nurse has been fantastic.
PJ’s reverse check is amazing. Love the guy and hope to see the production numbers go up. Love Nuge but he is not worth $7m. Yamo is going to get killed.
Elliot Freedman has appalling dress sense. I don’t get the problems with Cassie. Drew has gone – praise the Gods.
Love 75% of OP’s posting. Just wish he would ignore HH and avoid repeating himself over and over and over and over.
I love the new site and love playing find the edit button on the iPad.
The big question is how good is the North. I suspect not very.
Good hear other people’s summary of the season so far.
I have been watching some of the other division games lately and the North seems at least the same as far as ‘good’ goes.
The only team with any sort of realistic chance to knock the Oilers out of a playoff spot is Calgary and they are 9 points back (with 2 games in hand).
In addition, they have 7 less regulation wins so, realistically, they are 10 points back as the Oilers will win any tie break.
The flames at -9 on the season is a fairly solid indication that they are not going to be able to make up that many points in the 2nd half.
Anything is possible but the playoffs are looking good at this point.
And as a double bonus,
doesn’t look like the Flamers are going to make anything other than a change to the front office
I ‘m still cheering for the Habs I want too see the Flames implode as Milan becomes Darryl’s new leader and Treliving finally gets canned at the end of the year. Plus it’s fun watching Tkachuk and sneaky Gio lose while Hrudey and Cassie give double lip service how great the Flames organization is and how they all love each other Kumbaya style.
One must not forget Craig ‘The Homer’ Button who projected the Oilers to finish 6th and the Flames 3rd. Bahahahahaha
Truly a beautiful mind
He must be buddies with Holland he’s done a 180 on getting his shots in on the Oilers since Ken’s taken over. I thought he was going to drop to his knees when gushing about Holland’s golden boy Broberg. Lowe and Mactavish and the rest of the gang must of teased him good back in the day because his out of the blue slagging of Craig’s big pick of Bouchard was totally uncalled for. It has cost Bouchard in the media because some of the media that didn’t follow him believed big nose Button. If you turned Button over there would be 2 flaming C’s tattooed one on each ass cheek.
You do know Chiarelli was GM when Bouchard was drafted, don’t you? That was barely a few years ago… and safely a few years after MacT was last GM.
May not be too fun if we get a first round matchup with the Leafs. I’m hoping at least 3rd in the division.
Clearly the most desirable, and hilarious, scenario is 1st seed Toronto losing to 4th seed Montreal in round 1. I think Edmonton and Winnipeg will play each other as the 2-3 seeds and holy crap will that be a fun series.
OMG the media from the ‘Center of the Universe’ will call for an immediate cancellation of the playoffs because it was not fair to the Leafs. Yes, Yes and yes again to that scenario.
I’m not overly concerned with play-off match-ups at this point – still have the primary goal of ensuring a playoff spot and its looking very good right now.
Winnipeg may win the division
I don’t think they will, but they could definitely be the team that comes out of the North in the playoffs. Picking up Dubois was an incredible move.
I agree with the Dubois move for sure. Lots of hockey left and TO doesn’t have a huge lead. Anyone know how many games TO and the Peg have against each other still to play?
IIRC someone said 8. A ton left to be determined between those 2 it seems.
If the Oilers play just .500 the rest of the season including 3-3 against the Flames and 3-3 vs the Canucks with no OT games, they would finish with 62 points. To get to 63 points, (Edmonton wins the tie breakers) Calgary would have to go 16-8 in their other 24 games which includes 7 against Montreal, 5 against Toronto, and 4 against Winnipeg. Vancouver would have to go 15-4-1 in their other 20 remaining games to get to 63 and they play Winnipeg 4 times, Toronto 4 and Montreal 2.
So far Edmonton is 2-5 vs the Leafs, 3-4 vs the Habs and Jets, and 12-2 vs the Canucks, Flames and Senators. ie. They beat the teams they should, their in the fight with the Habs and Jets (pre-Dubois anyway) and, at least for 1 week, were not a match for the Leafs (they were 2-2 prior to that week). Considering where the team was in late January, the Oilers are in good shape at the midpoint of this shortened season. And with still not being able to do too much else yet, I am grateful we are getting to watch this version of the team almost every second night versus worrying about the lottery and talking about next year like most seasons over that past 12 years.
Are you sure about this?
The Donner Party will be heading back east right after the Ides of March and the schedule is nothing short of brutal with 3 back to backs.
You also have no idea what the Flames are going to look like with Sutter behind the bench and also worth noting that in addition to the 2 games in hand the Flames have 2 upcoming games against Ottawa while the Oilers get a steady diet of Toronto, Montreal and Winnipeg in late March…all the teams ahead of them in the standings.
This ain’t over yet.
Also worth noting…Calgary has played only 10 games at home and 17 on the road.
Although home ice advantage is not what it is in a normal schedule, it’s not nothing either as it cuts down on travel days considerably.
It’s not over, but the Oilers have a very substantial head start for the remainder of the season. A team has to win games in hand for that to matter. So far this season Calgary has a losing record against every team in the division except Vancouver and Montreal (1-1). Yes they are even losing to Ottawa (2-3). They have 17 games against Montreal, Toronto and Winnipeg, Edmonton only has 13, so advantage Edmonton there as well. If the go 7-0 against Montreal, that would just allow Edmonton to beat Montreal out instead of Calgary. And as for back to backs, Edmonton so far is 4-0 in the second game so hasn’t been a problem yet.
Yeah we know we’ll hear from your sorry ass, in the unlikely event that the OIlers collapse, because that’s just who you are and why your making these doom and gloom predictions. It’s not because you have any real insight.
You are, of course, looking at what has happened as opposed to what is likely to happen.
We’ll see what things look like at the end of March.
I expect you will be singing a different tune.
Go to your bathroom and have a conversation with your only friend in the bathroom mirror. In the dictionary beside looser is your picture. You are the sorriest excuse for a human being that I have ever seen. God Bless your wife for being able to put up with you!
You are awfully hyper and insecure today.
Yes, you get the whole picture more than old HH, who sounds more like Oiler apologists of years past; we’re way past American thanksgiving here, folks!
This ain’t over yet…for the Oilers.
Its definitely over for the Nucks.
100% that pairing benefits from their McDavid TOI. I would posit that McDavid and his linemates also benefit from their TOI with Nurse/Barrie – sure its not an “equal benefit” but those two d-men absolutely contribute to the success of the forward line. In my opinion.
Well, the real question is “would another pairing do better?” and at this point, with Bear struggling, the answer is no.
Wait, Nurse/Bouchard wouldn’t do better or at least as good?
Bouchard is a flat out rookie, insane to ask him to play that high on the depth chart. Even top-4 is too big an ask.
Of course, I agree 100%.
My post was related to the opinions out there that Bouch can simply replace Barrie today with little or no issue.
If Bouch plays zero more games this season, is he still a rookie next year? I believe he has played 9 this year and 7 previously so total of 16? What is the line?
Even if Bouchard remained eligible for the Calder next season, the NHL would find a reason to change the rules “because Oilers”.
They never changed that rule before because of the Oilers. Why would they do it now?
The line is:
1) 25 total games, or
2) 2 season of 6 or more games.
Bouchard now has 2 x 6GP, so will not be a rookie next year, regardless what else happens.
All Bouchard has to do to replace Barrie is to play 3rd pairing and the power play. Struggling Bear can play with Nurse on the first pairing.
Bear did just that last year as a rookie and we all sing his praises.
Nobody, not a single soul, suggested he was likely or able to handle that workload as a rookie. Let alone thrive.
Stranger things have happened.
And Bouchard has more pedigree, size, is a better skater and at least as good a defender.
I’m not advocating trading Barrie and replacing him on the top pairing with Bouchard… just saying that the notion of a rookie on the top pairing isn’t without recent precedent.
Struggling Bear still gets put out over Barrie with Nurse in the dying minutes with the OIlers defending the lead. Struggling Bear kills penalties. And could play the power play as well as anybody if his minutes were not needed elsewhere.
Struggling Bear > Barrie defensively.
Struggling Bear > Barrie period.
I don’t think anyone questions that Bear > Barrie defensively but, of course, this does not equate to being “better period” unless, of course, Mark Letestu was better than Connor McDavid as he killed penalties of McDavid and he defended leads in the last minute over McDavid.
What will it take to get Hall? If we plan on running McDavid and Draisatl on one line, we need a driver on line 2 with Nuge.
And can you convince them to take Neal back? Can the wizard deliver again?
Neal, 1st and Lavoie for Hall? Is that way too much to get Hall for a run and also clear Neal off the books? Ensures we get Nuge resigned.
The first for a rental is a non starter in my opinion
Ah, but it’s the 1st for a Hall rental AND 5.75 in cap space for the next 2.5 years.
That is not insignificant.
I wonder if Buffalo would do it?
-12 already for this:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hall-Hopkins-Puljujarvi
Really?!?
People are terrified of being very good for some reason…
I suspect the negative votes have to do with the plan of having Drai and McDavid on the same line
Why would we get Hall when we’re not even eligible for the draft lottery?
Getting rid of Neal for a first could be interesting though. Holland would probably spend that money on resigning Barrie long term IMO. Or a long term goalie
Hall will be UFA in a matter of weeks here.
Keep the 1st . Keep Lavoie.
This is intriguing & no doubt would be worth consideration on Buffalo part for a 1st plus a good prospect for Hall who would most likely never return to the Sabres regardless of how the season went.
The sticker would be Neal, the big question is the Oilers.
Why give the Sabres this bounty when you can get Hall at probably 5 to 5.5 next year with giving up no assets?
I’d love to get Hall back him & Leon had great possession numbers & had great chemistry.
Hall’s PDO is fantastic even with that really bad Sabres team.
What do mean by Hall’s PDO is fantastic Bob?
I don’t get the hate for this post either. I feel like folks read part, had a gut reaction and never finished reading.
I think I’d do that deal. 30% for Hall and 70% for getting rid of Neal’s salary.
Great news that Klef is having the surgery this month. Lets get er’ done.
Should have a prognosis and timeline by the time the expansion draft comes along.
My presumption is:
1) He will not be deemed exempt
2) The organization will indeed protect him in the expansion draft
The above is premised on a prognosis that contains a time line for return which, I anticipate, will be sometime around the half way point of the season.
If this is indeed the case, that will be a massive mid-season addition.
The one negative will be his cap hit will count (as it always does) and there will be LTIR reserves just like there are now but, effectively, they can’t be spent as, once he’s activated, they disappear completely.
I say it’s far from a given that Klef is protected.
If the Oilers have to protect Klefbom they’d protect him or trade him.
he’s miles better than anything on the Oilers save Nurse.
Is a Klefbom with a bum shoulder that’s undergone a major surgery miles better than anything on the Oilers save Nurse? I’m not so sure.
This surgery isn’t wether Klefbom will play next year, this surgery is for quality of life moving forward & zero Dr would give him clearance to even workout let alone play when it’s time for the expansion draft.
Klefbom would have to be medically cleared to enter the expansion draft.
Klefbom expressly stated his goal was to get back to the NHL and I fully expect that, once the surgery is complete, he will be rehabbing the shoulder with the intent of a return to the NHL. I don’t know how long that rehab will be but Klefbom has made it clear he is looking to continue his career.
Sure, but it’s quality of life first, continuing his NHL career second.
I have a real hard time believing he will ever play to his potential ever again. He is a defenseman…he MUST be able to grind along the boards and win puck battles to be effective. How can you do this night in and out with a bum shoulder?
It’s just…tragic.
He’s been playing with a bum shoulder for years (and playing pretty well).
It is possible he doesn’t return as the same player, but I think it’s pretty likely he’ll be the exact same player we remember (once he gets up to speed, and assuming he feels good enough to return).
How many cortisone shots did he have last season? While playing 25 minutes a night and finishing tied for 4th in Oilers scoring?
Bob said 4-6 months today.
Question for the group.
Assuming Barrie and Larrson continue to play at their current levels, AND, the market sets Barries value at 5 million per year and Larrsons at 3.5 million per year,……
who do the Oilers sign to a new contract at a 3,4, or 5 year term? Or do they sign both? Or neither?
I vote for Barrie, but just to see Godot’s head explode.
Honestly, only an idiot wouldn’t vote for Barrie
Larsson at 3 X $3.5M is a contract I would sign – I would hope the AAV to be a bit lower but, I’ve been shown recent comparables that make that an unreasonable hope.
Larsson is just 28 (not even 29 until November), he does not have chronic back issues nor is he “injury prone” – he should be very effective on a subsequent 3-year contract.
I vote to resign Larsson only but his age is a concern. 3 year deal?
I suspect ( really hope I am wrong) that playoff hockey might not be too kind to Barrie.
In river hockey, Barrie looks good.
Montreal, Toronto and Winnipeg are all going to be very physical in the playoffs.
At $5m I’d strongly consider Barrie, but prefer to keep the term around 3 years. I think the team is probably worse next year without him, and he’ll likely have good trade value if/when Bouchard and Bear are ready to take his job (and of course, it’s entirely possible one of those guys stagnates). Thing is, a 3 year deal would have his contract end when he’s likely on the decline and I don’t see him taking that length without a hefty dollar value.
At $3.5 I’m happy to keep Larsson. Honestly, if we can avoid shitty contracts I’d bring both guys back for injury coverage and force the EBs to force their way up the lineup. I get that this might slow development, but I’ve been an Oilers fan for to long to take it for granted that both of the youngsters are ready next year with no hiccups. It’s time to start concentrating on winning and not sacrificing more seasons to development.
Neither.
At least… until after the expansion draft.
With this news about Klefbom his timeline to return should be 4-6 months if all goes well. So at the earliest for the beginning of the next season, maybe late-November to early-December -ish? That means he’s probably got to be protected? Or does Old Dutch gamble that the uncertainty of return to form and injury history turns off SEA?
Say it’s possible to negotiate a handshake deal with both Barrie and Larsson. If the term and dollar ranges are low it would be worth thinking about. But forced to choose just one I’d stick with Larsson. Barrie is duplicated elsewhere for less AAV, by younger players who will be under team control for longer. The money saved on Barrie is better allotted to an offensive forward who can score and open up room in the top-6. Or on a goalie.
I’d be okay with resigning Larsson to the extension KRusty got from ChiaPete, just with no trade protection. $4Mx4 (or less) is fine by me.
No trade protection and no material signing bonuses……
I’m one of the bigger Larsson fans on here but 4 X $4M isn’t something I’d automatically be OK with. I’d much prefer 3 years and, if it has to be 4 years, I think that AAV needs to come down.
I might sign both and trade Bear if those were the AAVs..
I’m not convinced either will be that low though.
KBomb going under the knife in 10 days in Cleveland per Matheson.
This surgery will put the “scar” in “Oscar”.
Hoping it goes well.
As long as it doesn’t put the “FBom” in Klefbom, I’m okay with it.
Good luck Oscar!
Its been a crazy busy morning so I’m just now about to get caught up with Oilers type news/blogs/etc. – excited given the domination the Oilers showed last night (and the game) before and, a summary of the first five minutes of my “Oilers Social Media” is:
1) Sell high on Nurse, as he’s a function of McDavid and his goals are fluky – Ehlers
2) Caleb Jones has the best possession and expected goal numbers of all D over the last while – he should be locked in as 2LD
3) Russell should never play over Jones of Bouchard
4) Talk about re-signing Larsson is ludicrous and it would be a fireable offence for Holland to re-sign
5) Playing Barrie over Bouchard means that Barrie will be signed long term and Bouchard traded.
Everyone is permitted their own opinion, of course.
For me, I’m going to revel in Nurse’s continued Norris-type play and Barrie’s clear material positive impact to the offence of the team.
I’m going to love that Willie L. fit right back in like a glove and continues to get more comfortable game after game after game and is starting to show some of the skill he has.
I’m going to acknowledge how much better this hockey team is when the 2017 Adam Larsson is playing and that 2021 Adam Larsson may be even better. This player is only 28 years old (not even 29 until in to next season) and is healthy and huge part of this team.
I’m going to realize that Jujhar Khaira is zooming whatever linemates Tip puts with him, being it Ennis and Archie or Shore and P. Russell/Turris, Khaira is playing great hockey – Kass/Archie on that right wing will be massive.
Go Oilers!
I really don’t get the narrative that Nurse benefits from playing with McDavid. Of course he does!! Just like every first pairing dman benefits from playing with their team’s best players. McDavid is the best player in the league so anyone who plays with him gets a bigger push, but it’s not like Nurse will play with bums on any team he’s traded to.
Also did anyone notice during the celebration after Drai’s third that Leon suddenly cracks a massive smile and glances to the side at someone, directly afterwards Jesse fly into frame. That kid is just pure joy.
Was great to see. Even Leon with the big grin. It’s great to see the joy Jesse brings to the team. I love it!
Filip Berglund’s game has picked up of late, had an assist tonight which makes it a three game point streak. He’s been playing around 20-21 minutes per game this last stretch which has been the teams best by far and they are steering clear of the relegation rounds which is good news since it would mean Berglund could get over to Bako quicker.
His assist last game was real nice, a shot fake into a no look slap pass across the slot. Right on the tape.
I wonder if there are plans from him to head to Bakersfield when he is done with Linkiping for the season? We know that is the plan for the likes of Broberg, Lavoie and Kemp but I’m not sure on Berglund.
Think I read/heard somewhere that he’ll be heading to Bako as soon as his season is up. Would make sense as he’s under contract with the Oil.
Think it would be beneficial for him as well, been an up and down year for him with a midseason injury, playing on a struggling team(until lately) and his play hasn’t been at the level that I(and I’m sure he) expected. At least not consistently. So prolonging the season and get a new set of coaching eyes reviewing his game should be very good for him going forward.
Thank you.
McDavid and Draisaitl’s 5v5 goal scoring rate (9.46 GF/60) in their 89 minutes together would be ranked as the 9th best 5v4 power play in the league.
Their 5v5 goal share (93.3 GF%) would rank 14th among NHL team 5v4 power play goal shares.
Also,
via Wheatnoil:
Even more wild?
McDavid and Drai have had 125 minutes of 5×4 together and they’re only slightly ahead of where they are 5×5. They’re 10.96 GF/60.
They’re GF% is actually LOWER at 92%!
Actual piss cutters wish that they could cut this much piss
That’s stupid. Re-run your numbers!!!!!
The Barrie “no defense” effect on the PP vs. having Nurse at even strength.
Last year with Klefbom on the ice, the team had a goal share on the PP of 84%, since the opposition scored shorthanded goals at a rate of 2.4 per 60. Barrie has an on ice PP goal share percentage of 90% with a shorthanded goals against rate of 1.06 per 60. So Barrie is twice as effective this season as Klefbom was last season at preventing short handed goals against.
I wonder when Godit will tire of facts being used to ruin his narrative.
I’m confident that Godot believes, if Kassian and Barrie were removed from the lineup, the team would be a top cup contender with no other moves.
NP
Not quite. But it is important to recognize the obstacles to contending.
You forgot DRY needing to be reunited.
Also not more than one hobbit (though DRY takes care of that).
And Lagesson in, Russell to PB. I believe that was a ‘start as you mean to go’ in Tippett’s 1st training camp. Man, Russell just keeps hanging around.
Nice work, but there’s some assuming going on there.
lol
Weirdest thing. WTF happened to them last year??
Draisaitl-McDavid’s GF% going off the rails was what got them playing on 2 lines to begin with.
Comparing Draisaitl-McDavid last season to this one:
19-20 48.6% GF (553 min)
20-21 93.3% GF (89 min)
19-20 46.0% SF
20-21 67.0% SF
19-20 47.1% xGF
20-21 69.4% xGF
19-20 48.8% HDCF
20-21 75.0% HDCF
What when into those % numbers?
19-20 32.0 SF/60 37.5 SA/60
20-21 44.6 SF/60 23.0 SA/60
19-20 2.69 xGF/60 3.02 xGA/60
20-21 4.24 xGF/60 1.87 xGA/60
19-20 13.3 HDCF/60 14.0 HDCA/60
20-21 18.3 HDCF/60 6.1 HDCA/60
No one’s underlying numbers support a 93% GF rate, but my gawd that is an impressive 89 minutes of hockey.
As spectacular as the ‘for’ part of the equation is, the year over year improvement in ‘against’ metrics is more impressive.
EDM Goal Share after 28 games (17-11-0)
Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29 (15-20)-43%
29 w/o 97 (17-11)-61%
97 & 29 On (15-1)-94%
Turris (6-16)-27%
Other (9-11)-45%
Net EV +3
Special Teams: 27-22
Net ST +5
Empty Net:4-2
Net EN +2
SO/PS 0-0
Net SO/PS 0
The Perogy House North Division standings March 11th using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
TOR +11
WPG +8
MTL +6
EDM +6
CGY -1
VAN -4
OTT -10
Looks like Kassian might be good to go on Friday.
to the airport?
Kassian just might come in with a new bounce in his step.
I’ll 100% take Kassian at 3RW over P. Russell (even if P. Russell is more responsible defensively).
Kassian doesn’t PK. Neal, Chiasson, Ennis, Kassian. Man that is a whole lot of non-PK’ers.
PRussell PK’s.
Patrick Russell has played zero seconds on the penalty kill this season.
I can’t imagine you are being honest when implying you’d prefer P. Russell as 3RW over Kassian even taken away the fact that it doesn’t have any impact on the PK at all.
Is that why you hate Barrie as well?
If you look at the teammate data you see that Barrie’s overall numbers are dragged down by a poor pairing with Russell and a disastrous pairing with Koekoek, and yet Russell’s numbers are like that with everyone and Koekoek actually has worse numbers away from Barrie. The conclusion here is not that Barrie is the problem, it is that Koekoek was a problem and that Russell is either a drag or doesn’t play with Draisatl or McDavid or both.
And while it is true that Nurse and McDavid have better numbers away from Barrie, Draisatl has better numbers with Barrie.
Nurse and Barrie have almost identical scoring chance numbers away from McDavid, and that is with Barrie playing with worse partners. By Fenwick and xgoals Barrie is actually better. This doesn’t mean Barrie is the better player, it means there are other factors to consider–here competition probably makes a difference.
Two guys with great numbers away from McDavid are Caleb Jones and Puljujarvi.
Quality post.
Theory 1-The fear of losing a trade seems to be a much larger motivation than the contentment of winning one.
Theory 2- We obsess over the hole such a trade will create and fail to give enough emphasis to the hole that already exists.
If these theorums exist in actual hockey management I believe this is an area a cutting edge GM could exploit.
Remember, a well executed trade should be win-win.
I have an decent supply of this and shortage of that. You have the opposite.
The Oilers are in good shape at RD, so much so that a solid right defender isn’t playing. Now, it isn’t hard to see that the extra RD could become a shortage if there’s an injury or if next year we don’t sign Lars and/or Barrie. It is prudent to keep all 4D through this season.
But what is undoubtedly true is that we have zero actual top-6 left wingers. This is a hole and it’s right now. You can again, stetch and bend and talk about moving a center over or Tyler Ennis pitching in if needed but the hole is real and it’s spectacular. I suppose you can really squint to see Holloway pitching in at some point. And we never talk about what happens if there’s an injury to 97/29/93? Those situations would leave us with zero left wingers as the remaining two would play center.
Why do we focus less on that hole?
So let’s not compare trading Bear for full value to trading Petry for a 3rd.
What if an Ethan Bear package gets you Filip Forsberg or Ricky Rackell?
I think you have to trade Bear for either Forsberg or Rackell. Is there any chance that is a good enough offer? I don’t think so.
Packages in both cases. But both players are likely on the move. Nashville has just lost Josi and Ellis and will have Ekholm on the move in a matter of days. Bear would be very interesting to them.
It wouldn’t be a disaster if we only have two RHD next year. Almost every team in the league does it.
So long as the plan isn’t Russell at 3 RD
I believe its imperative that the team has four.
Bear
Larsson
Bouchard
Depth veteran 4RD (a Matt Benning type signing).
Both of those theories are studied cognitive biases.
The first one has been experimentally determined that the average person weights losses twice as much as they weigh gains.
The second one is called the endowment effect.
GM’s aren’t trying to balance trades to be equal, they are trying to pooch the other side as hard as they can.
March 11, 2020 was the last game that fans attended in Rogers Place – an anniversary of sorts? Jets beat us 4-2, but we enjoyed a couple Old Fashions at the Atlas bar after the game…. good times
I was there with a buddy using my sister’s seat (thanks sis) and being the old guy that I am did not have my cell phone on. So, we went through the game and did not even know that the NBA had shut down. Sad that that game was my last for now over a year. This is by far the longest stretch I have gone without seeing the Oilers play live – and that includes the years when I did not even live in Edmonton.
I miss seeing the speed of the game. You kind on lose that watching on TV for over a year. Can’t wait until opening night 2021 – 2022!
That game was my first time being in the Sky Lounge so I had to still eat everything at the buffet. YOLO
An analysis of the new ESPN deal.
https://theathletic.com/2440795/2021/03/11/the-nhl-on-espn-what-the-2-8-billion-deal-means-for-the-league-players-and-viewers/?source=user_shared_article
Re: Barrie extension talk. I looked at puckiq.com for the top-6 Oilers defensemen by TOI v Elites and here’s what I found.
CTOI%
Bear: 45.9
Nurse: 43.0
Larsson: 39.4
Jones: 38.6
Russell: 35.3
Barrie: 34.2
DFF%RC
Larsson: +5.10
Russell: +4.60
Bear: +3.30
Nurse: +1.80
Jones: +1.80
Barrie: -7.20
CF%RC
Russell: +1.80
Bear: +0.70
Larsson: +0.30
Jones: +0.10
Nurse: -0.40
Barrie: -3.50
OZS%
Larsson: 27.4
Russell: 40.0
Bear: 45.1
Nurse: 47.3
Jones: 48.8
Barrie: 59.2
FO/60
Russell: 64.7
Bear: 60.0
Nurse: 58.0
Larsson: 56.0
Barrie: 52.8
Jones: 45.5
Not including last nights game.
Faceoffs per/60?
Yes. It’s a corollary of on-the-fly (OTF) starts at NST. The higher that number the more the coach trusts a player.
Ok, for us who are statistically challenged what is the conclusion.
He plays against elites as a percentage of his ice time the least on the team (heavily sheltered) and performs worst relative to his teammates.
At least, that’s what I see.
That’s what I’m seeing too. Despite playing well and having great boxcars, he’s not a top-4 defenseman.
Breaking results out against elites is a bad way of isolating performance. It reduces the sample size without actually providing more context.
For instance Russell’s overall RelCorsi is -4.67, worst on the team other than Koekoek. The numbers only get worse for Fenwick, shots, xGoals, scoring chances.
And yet your numbers make it seem like Russell has been one of the best D. The numbers here don’t make any sense. If you can’t use them to draw conclusions about Russell (and you can’t) then you also can’t use them to draw conclusions about Barrie.
And yes, Godot’s irrational hatred of Barrie has driven me to rationally defend Barrie.
There has to be a good reason why two other teams have gone away from this player. By my eye he is a negative in the defensive zone. In his favour is the fact that the puck appears to spend less time in the defensive zone when he is on the ice. My biggest reason for saying the team should move on from has to do with the fact the team needs what Larsson provides more than what Barrie provides and we have cover with younger offensively gifted D. Giving a retirement contract to Barrie when we have more pressing areas of need seem counterproductive to accomplishing the ultimate goal of winning another championship.
Colorado moved on from Barrie because he had trade value to acquire Kadri. That was a hockey trade.
I don’t know many Oiler fans (and i think none on here) that want to give Barrie a retirement contract and very few that want him re-signed at all.
There is a big difference between acknowledging his benefit to the team this year (which helps bring Bouchard along at a reasonable pace – even if it does block him a bit) and wanting to bring him back on a massive contract.
I don’t see how anyone can argue with you when you say Barrie is a big negative in the dzone.
Now, he is a positive player in the ozone, mostly due to his skating and stickhandling skills. And maybe due to his unpredictability, you never know where he’s gonna be.
But that unpredictability cuts both ways. I get the sense that his teammates don’t know where he is half the time either.
I also don’t see him as a great passer. He can make some plays, but he puts a lot of passes in peoples feet, or onto their backhand. He also seems to have trouble making an accurate drop pass on that PP breakout. Is anyone else noticing this?
The post you are replying to suggest my position on Barrie is NOT irrational.
Its is too simplistic to look at any of this info in isolation without some context. Barrie plays over 75% of his 5 on 5 minutes with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. The quality of the opposition is in the context of the whole unit. Some of that is who Tippett tries to match up against for the whole group or who the opposing group wants out to shut down the Oilers. Barrie’s not being as much sheltered defensively as he is being put out with Mcdavid and or Draisaitl to maximize offense. Unless the Oilers are up by a goal with 2 minutes to go, in which case Larsson for sure and maybe Bear are subbed for him. Even in the 3-2 win over Ottawa Monday holding on to a 1 goal lead, Barrie played 60 seconds in the last 5 minutes, Bear 40 seconds, then Larsson took care of the last 2 minutes.
I am not yet advocating he be signed beyond this year, but it is too early to conclude that Bouchard can easily replace him right away or that overall Bear is a better medium term option. Barrie is the best offensive defenseman the Oilers have had at least since Sheldon Souray. And assuming the Oilers are still a playoff team as the deadline approaches, he is not going to be traded except in the very unlikely scenario the other team is also sending back a valuable rental.
Anyone have a gif of McDavid and his no look through the legs pass to Draisaitl goal?
If you’re on twitter I believe Demitri Filipovich posted one.
Here it is…McD has eyes in the back of his head
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/mcdavid-makes-insane-no-look-legs-pass-draisaitls-hat-trick-goal/
This is awesome. Thanks.
I also found this on Twitter:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHL/status/1369861547762343937
Bundles up the Drai goals and includes McDavid’s no looker pass
I still think the team needs a goalie. Koskinen can get shipped out. Stalock fulfills the expansion draft requirement.
I know Gibson is out there. Kuemper looked good until he got hurt (same cap hit as Koskinen too)
it might not happen until the summer but get a goalie before the playoffs and all bets are off.
If stalock comes in and plays well that’ll be it for Koskinen season. Holland will sign a free agent as well as trying to trade Koskinen if no one bites on a trade he’ll buy him out. Most people believe it’ll be Neal being bought out next year I say they keep him for the front net presence on the PP with Chase gone and it’ll be koskinen kicking stones.
I’m looking at the standings and thinking that if the Oilers had won just 1 out of 3 against the Leafs, they’d be tied right now for first.
I’d be happy with a goal and losing by 2 or less before I got too worked up about beating them
The most memorable moment came on a dizzying series of passes that was part 80s Oilers and part Harlem Globetrotters.
That was truly amazing. Anyone count the passes on that play?
I think McCurdy tweeted 25, not sure f he was serious.
It sure felt like that many!
The game was replayed this morning so i counted 26 passes including them moving the puck up the ice into the zone. Ottawa touched the puck at least once not including the deflection but never had possession.
Wow that’s wild. Thanks!
Jamie Mclellan did a segment on it on TSN last night. You can probably find it on their site. It was north of 20, and pretty hilarious because he just kept talking and they just kept on passing.
Also some cool stuff there with the sports logic tracking, they could show all the passes on the ice.
I’m waiting for better player tracking stats to come out. They were dropping possession stats on earlier broadcasts but that seems to have stopped now. Per player possession would be interesting. I’d also like to see pass completion %
Which goal are we talking about here?
First one, I believe (Nurse).
I’m not so convinced we’re not going to go 9-0 against Ottawa. We are their bogey team, as the English football commentators like to say. They had 4 shots on goal when we put in our 6th goal last night. Even on Monday when they got the stinker on Koskinen in the 1st minute, they never looked in control of the game for a single second. It’s just a bad matchup for them and it’s hard to see them coming up with any answers within the space of this season.
Now if only we didn’t have the same damn dynamic with Toronto.
Not to mention two of their top-6 forwards went down with what looked like, awful knee injuries. So far this season, I only feel comfortable playing against Ottawa.
Bouchard got 12 of 28 games in the first half of the season. I doubt he breaks 30 before playoffs.
I wonder if they have any load management plans. At least they can be liberal with the maintenance days.
Regardless, there will be injuries.
Does anyone know when Holloway’s season is over? Curious if they’ll have a chance to take a peek at him before the deadline – I think the answer might be no.
Larsson is so fun to watch right now, one big nasty Viking. Last night was watching Ragnar train Bjorn in real time.
The regular season is over already. The Big-10 tournament starts Monday.
April 10 is when the NCAA championship game is played. Wisconsin has a chance, but I don’t think they make it to the Frozen 4, which is April 8th. Wisconsin is really only 2 lines deep and I am not overly impressed by their D. Their goaltending, especially Rowe (a freshman) is strong, however.
The selection for their brackets is this weekend, so perhaps they luck out with the draw. So in answer to your question with the quarantine as a consideration, my prediction is that he will be available to practice with the team by April 15th.
Love how Larsson is playing. You come in my area of the rink and body contact will commence.
Someone asked for a North crosstab yesterday. To keep it simple here it is in WG’s Fake Bettman Pts (Any Win is +1, Reg Loss is -1)
C,E,M,O,T,V,W
C=x,-2,0,0,-1,2,0 net -1
E=2,x,-1,6,-3,2,0 net +6
M=0,1,x,1,-1,5,0 net +6
O=1,-6,1,x,-1,-3,-2 net -10
T=2,4,2,2,x,1,0 net 11
V=-1,-2,-3,3,-1,x,0 net -4
W=2,0,2,3,0,1,0 net 8
And here the other cherry tree with games remaining.
C,E,M,O,T,V,W
C=x,6,7,4,5,4,4 net 30
E=6,x,6,3,2,6,5 net 28 (15 against C+O+V)
M=7,6,x,5,6,2,5 net 31 (14 against C+O+V)
O=4,3,5,x,4,6,5 net 27
T=5,2,6,4,x,4,8 net 29 (13 against C+O+V)
V=4,6,2,6,4,x,4 net 26
W=4,5,5,5,8,4,x net 31 (13 against C+O+V)
Thank you very much!
So using the boogeyman analogy from Durag:
We are Ottawas boogeyman
Toronto is our Boogeyman,
Montreal is Vancouvers Boogeyman.
I don’t really see any other Boogeyman action out there. Winnipeg and Toronto have been so steady against everyone.
Kryptonite
I already see Barrie as our own rental. They don’t need to trade any D, and just let Barrie walk. Bouchard can fill the role next year, but the depth today is nice. Hard to commit to Barrie going forward with so many D on the horizon, even assuming we lose one to Seattle.
Agreed. We were one injury away from having 0gp in his career Lennstrom in the lineup with Barrie on the team.
Boo hiss the Sens scored when 97 & 29 were on the ice together. Don’t they know that’s not allowed?
Barrie didn’t cover his man in front of the net.
It’s true.
Having a guy like Barrie really makes the team as a whole more dynamic. The Oilers haven’t had a guy like that since Whitney fubared his ankle in 2011.
I also don’t want to pay the guy as I agree you can’t pay one dimensional D-men big dollars, but I feel like some people feel like replacing Barrie’s skillset internally by next season is a slam dunk, and that is far from a sure thing IMO.
I’m a Barrie fan – this is on record.
With that said – Bouchard is ready. Next season he steps seamlessly into that role, with a bit more size, different shot, less in-tight skill but also less chaos.
The more he plays this season, the better he’ll be next. And he’s a positive force on the ice now.
If they clear out a bunch of cap space – sure. Otherwise, thank him very much for his time and let #75 run.
Yeah, I haven’t seen any evidence that Bouchard will be less chaos at least initially. He seems to have very slick offensive skills, but from what I have seen his defence is still a work in progress.
I think its natural that fans mark vets a lot harder than younger up and comers.
Barrie was dynamic against Ottawa, and mostly invisible against Toronto.
Barrie, to be competent at what he has good at, has to play with Nurse. Basically, he has to be babysat by one of the best defensemen in the league to appear competent.
What Barrie is adding is roster fragility and inflexibility.
An above average one dimensional one shot scorer can be carried by a team. An expensive offense only defenseman cannot be carried by a team that has Stanley Cup asperations.
Colorado kept drafting complete offensive D to replace him. Timmons and then Makar on the right side. Byram on the left. They also traded for Girard.
That is how little they thought of Tyson Barrie.
Toronto had a look, and said no thanks. Gave Brodie, a left shot D playing the right side, Barrie’s money.
The whole team was invisible against Toronto including McDavid . I can definitely see them resigning Barrie unless he gets bedazzled by big money elsewhere .
Sure hope then that the ‘Bedazzler’ GMs are out in full force this summer and that Holland is not part of the group.
RHD Next Season
Bear
Larsson (hope he signs an acceptable deal)
Bouchard
KRusty (injury coverage)
Yeah, I agree.
The book on Barrie prior to coming here – looks extremely accurate.