Today is Round 1 of the NHL Entry Draft. I’ve been following the NHL draft since 1971. Why 1971? Please read this.
On June 10, 1971, the NHL drafted 117 players. Guy Lafleur (No. 1 overall), Marcel Dionne (No. 2) were the familiar ones for me due to the most outrageous Memorial Cup in history. Gregg Drinnan’s summary (here) is exceptional, but there are many others worthy of reading if you have the time.
Since then, I have followed every draft and always looks for signs of an organization building. You can do it through the draft, trades and free agency, but it’s important not to get too low on available prospects who can actually play. The Oilers just passed Kenny Loggins on the highway to the danger zone in this area, so this draft is important.
I want to say that Rick Pracey and his scouts did a grand job last season and the Oilers could get as many as three actual NHL players from that group. If he can do it again, and entering the weekend there are two picks available to Edmonton inside the top 100, we’ll have something to talk about moving forward. As it is, Tommy Lafreniere, David Lewandowski and Asher Barnett are legit.
I would recommend Blue Bullet for your draft rankings, I’ve stopped doing them and doubt I’ll return to that part of my hobby although one never knows. Brad’s nuanced system seems the best to me, and we’ll see as the years go by.
There’s talk Darnell Nurse will be traded tonight, we’ll see. Sometimes it happens during the day, and sometimes it doesn’t happen at all. I am looking forward to seeing how Stan Bowman tailors this team to Mike Babcock’s style, and do believe this team will have several new faces by opening night.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky from Inside The Truck podcast will join us and talk about the draft, the Jays, the CFL and World Cup. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Which Oilers players could struggle or thrive under new coach Mike Babcock?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7391918/2026/06/26/edmonton-oilers-players-roster-mike-babcock-coach/
LT,
What year did you start the blog? 2006?
How does it feel to have posted nearly every day for 20 years? It is pretty incredible.
I am truly amazed by the amount of top quality content you produce every day. It is amazing. Thank you so much. I find the blog is a place that I frequent more when I am very excited about something or very depressed about something. Your writing and the absolute hooligans in the comments section provide a lot of comfort.
Anyway, very grateful. Thank you.
Hear hear!
I’m not sure I’ve ever posted something pro-Oilers management before and this isn’t really that, but rather, it’s a defense of the “other” 25 teams struggling to keep up with Florida, Vegas and Tampa and to a lesser extent Carolina, Dallas and Minnesota.
It isn’t JUST taxes. It isn’t just weather. It isn’t just “winning”. It isn’t just no trade clauses. It isn’t just playing out of the spotlight. It isn’t just American stars opting out of Canadian cities.
But the reality is that some teams have all of these as plusses. Others like Minnesota have most.
And some like Winnipeg (as of now) and Edmonton in 5 years have NONE of these things on the right side of the ledger.
Seattle just offered Jason Robertson 15 million per year and he still said no. He’s also refusing to go to St. Louis.
Had Robertson accepted Seattle would have been crucified for signing a non-Olympic level player to the second highest AAV in the NHL. And that criticism is right. But what are they to do? No one will go there because the don’t have a winning culture (or taxes or weather) so their math is the same as Minnesota paying Kaprizov. Maybe this makes us a destination for people who want to win?
It was one thing when the stars got NMCs but now a good portion have them as a way to avoid half the cities in the league. So effectively Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg and soon to be Edmonton can’t even trade for a third of the leagues players to even get the right to drastically overpay them.
Yet we’ll keep piling awards and accolades on Nill, Zito, Tulsky, MacCrimmon. Yet no one mentions other “smart” guys like Gorton/Hughes still are on no stars “desired places to go” list.
Circling back to the Oilers, who have as good a team as they’ll likely have in my lifetime, they get criticized for giving Dickinson and Murphy term (even from me) because “Carolina walked away from Pesce. And it’s true! But Carolina knows they can go target someone else and the Oilers know they can’t.
Im not saying those orgs aren’t smarter but what I am saying is that we still underestimate how much harder GMs like Bowman and Cheveldayof have it.
Good point.
Great post. I hope the league at some point does something about this. Player movement is too restricted, and it hurts the product. Yes they are people etc, but that sort of thing comes with the territory for a pro athlete, and they are compensated for it
The tax thing is also overblown. It’s 42 games of whatever tax jurisdiction they are in, 42 mixed bag. States have to have revenue, so if it’s not income tax it’s coming from something else. I doubt the fully accounted difference washes out as being a large amount
There are a few players that might care about taxes, and I don’t want those guys anyway, don’t like the attitude and focus
I can’t remember what year the NTC came into the league? It initially was meant for the royalty of league. Now you have Jason Dickinsons of the league getting trade protection. In the old days there used to be more wheeling and dealing. Nowadays it’s all about the Cap and less so about the players. Very few people knew the salary of Dave Semenko-Stan Wier-Dave Lumley etc.
NHL teams need a “critical mass” of talent to magnetize other talent to want to join them.
It is largely independent of geography and taxes.
If you’re like Seattle and Vancouver and you don’t have the critical mass, you need to acquire talent via the draft. It’s the only way.
In sunny California Pat Verbeek failed at trying to attract Stamkos and a number of high profile free agents years ago. He had to settle for overpaying Alex Killorn. Anaheim (and San Jose, and Montreal), have now gathered enough talent via the draft where they can now attract players.
The draft is where you build the foundation. Seattle has not grasped this.
I think this is right. Players don’t want to go to Seattle because management sucks.
While I agree with almost all of this…I believe there’s another very impactful element at play.
That is American players increasingly opting to play in the U.S. rather than Canada and with the “empowerment” of players with NMC and NTC in their contracts they have and will continue to select their destinations as has become common in the NBA.
As these players continue to to push their own agendas, they are concentrating “winning” in selected U.S. markets which will accelerate the disparity in the league as is apparent that the last time a non-Sunbelt team won a cup (sans flukey STL win) is nearly a decade.
And. for a variety of reasons, the percentage of Canadian born players in the NHL has dropped precipitously to around 40% while American born has increased to 30% with Europeans representing the balance.
And it seems the NHL is just fine with this since the next expansion team will be in Texas with Atlanta waiting its turn.
I had mentioned the other day how virtually all of the Canadians tabbed to be selected in the first round of this draft have committed to playing in the NCAA next season which will have an effect on the competitiveness of the CHL and dilute the quality of play.
Also, with the western expansion of the USHL into 8 teams in California and Arizona, will see more American players staying home further affecting Canadian junior leagues.
You have touched on a topic that eats away at me.
The league used lockdowns to push through a salary cap on the premise that it would make “small market” teams competitive, or nurture some degree of parity. It is hard to not see the lockdowns and salary cap as part of a concerted effort to ensure that owners’ shares of revenue increase in size as the league grows (or grew), and they ensure (whether intended or not) that teams from some markets enjoy more rigorous economic health than their competitors.
The league have never implemented measures (equalisation payments, revenue sharing) that would “level” other local factors that directly impact on profit and revenue. For example, the tax differences between the jurisdictions that host teams can be considerable. States that have no income tax give their resident teams an advantage. Similarly, differences in currency evaluation can lead to major inequities between Canadian and US teams. Inversely, the league counts revenues from Canadian markets as a measure of overall league health thereby using local differences for global (i.e., league) benefit.
I realise these examples are complicated and require more context and nuance than I have given, but this post is too long already. 🙂
Robertson is a 40g 90pt player who’s only 26, 6’3 200+lbs. He’s scored 40 or more in 3 of his 6 seasons, he’s elite.
It makes all the sense in the world for the Kraken to offer that contract, he’s definitely Olympian level.
If anyone is crucifying the Kraken for trying to add a legitimate star to their team, imo that’s lost the plot.
Robertson either has a set location, or is trying to stick it to Dallas.
In Robertson’s 6 seasons in the NHL, he’s tied with Kyle Connor at 0.47 goals per game which ranks 12th and 13th respectively in the entire league, that’s Olympian level hockey.
Seattle has made many missteps, I don’t think the Robertson contract offer can be viewed as one.
Larry Hendrick 1971 I haven’t that name for a very long time.
Now that is a blast from the past.
What is the likelihood of Nurse being traded? I guess 40% unless he expands his trade list.
I will go with 65%. I think they want to move him and he wants a fresh start. make it happen Stan
LT, how many Top-10s this year, do you figure?
I’ve considered McKenna, Stenberg, Malhotra, Reid, Carels, Verhoeff. Maybe Belchetz.
Andy Strickland
@andystrickland
Gauging opinions, the belief is that Dylan Larkin will end up with Minnesota once everything is settled.
Minny desperately needs centres so that tracks.
With a late round flyer I’d like to see EDM pick RC Lukas Sawchyn from the Oil Kings.
He skates well, has soft mitts, plays a rugged game, and boasts a solid hockey IQ. Size is the main concern, being 5’10” and 173 lbs.
Some interesting observations and verbal about him from outside our bubble.
https://theleafsnation.com/news/toronto-maple-leafs-eye-miroslav-holinka-teammate-lukas-sawchyn-later-rounds-2026-nhl-draft
I’ve not seen Sawchyn play, but more players his size – eg. Zach Benson seem to be sticking if not at least getting a look from mgmt
LT discloses: “I’ve stopped doing them and doubt I’ll return to that part of my hobby although one never knows.”
Say it ain’t so!
I’ve been on the side trading Nurse and that Nurse carries legit value, especially because other teams will likely think they can “unlock” him or at least get him to where he was a few years ago.
With Babcock and Smith’s more aggressive hybrid system and supreme focus on accountability – I think Edmonton could be a great place to unlock him. I won’t be sad if he stays and hope the delays in trading is because we have a high bar set for trading him
I too would like to see Nurse stay here… a shift in system and more accountability (“You just starfished… next game you’re in the press box”) could really help Nurse out.
Maybe more importantly, we’ve already re-signed a 2RD who looked really good with him in the spring, but the question becomes what do we do with Walman… $7×7 is mighty expensive for 3LD.
Potentially it does turn into Walman and Ekholm sharing time with Bouchard, allowing Ekholm to play fewer minutes and be fresher in time for playoffs. That could be a positive too.
If we keep Nurse, is there enough money left to round out the forwards and get an actual goalie to support Jarry?
Totally agree – I don’t think it makes sense unless it’s in fact a good hockey trade. Don’t move him if it means being on the losing side of a trade
It’s a smart tactic to let teams know there’s no desperation to trade Nurse. If there isn’t a fair hockey deal the option to walk away is real.
You’ll never win a negotiation unless you’re willing to walk away!
They may have to keep him for a season or part of, but long term they can’t carry him Bouch and Walman
Here are some cap distributions 2025-2026 from top teams and Oilers. Cap 95.5M, Grok produced these numbers:
Canes F 54.5M D 27.6M G 5.5M
panthers F 67M D 24.9M G 9.1M
Bolts F 57M D 27M G ~10M
Knights F 63.9M D 33.8M G 9.1M
Avs F 57.9M D 28.9M G 6.8M
Oilers F ~57M D ~33.5M G ~3.6M-5M
The numbers being exact isn’t the point, it’s the cap distribution at issue. Given the Oilers have two high cap F, they have to shift some money from D to F to have competitive depth up front, especially with the goalie spend (including Campbell). ELC’s can help, but Howard is the only one not in the NHL that is likely to have much impact
I dunno about this take.
4 mil is all the difference on d edm has compared to these teams…
Knights spend the same on d just more on fwd
I dont think this shows they need to shift money honestly. Pretty minimal difference
The pattern is that top teams spend on forwards. If you factor in how much Connor and Leon make it’s even more skewed. Only the Knights spent as much on D and over 30M, and they have a bunch of LTIR didn’t they?
I tend to agree and some of this also has to do with timing of contracts. We have 4 top 4D caliber D that will be in year 1 or 2 of their deals. And one is Norris caliber.