For many years I did a ranking of each summer’s NHL draft eligible players. I didn’t use anything but math in the beginning, and had some interesting results after a few years. Turns out, math is a pretty good aid to any swinging Dick, and I bet NHL scouts use math heavily. Please read this.
Here’s an example. This is late second-round ranking from 2014. I’m going to talk about Andrew Mangiapane here, so took a slice of my final 2014 list in the 55-60 range:
So, I had Mangiapane late second in 2014. He was in fact chosen in the sixth round. In 2015! So, this is an example of a good NHL player, recognized by math, falling through the cracks at the 2014 draft and almost doing it again in 2015. Mangiapane has had a fine career, and hia draft experience would be a mighty fine template for the current Oilers. The team doesn’t draft early, and so needs to find good prospects later on. Mangiapane was an astute selection by the Calgary Flames, and the Oilers would do well to look for CHL players who post big numbers.
Since Mangiapane was an overager when drafted, I decided to look for a ‘new 2015 Mangiapane outlier’ in this year’s draft. It didn’t take me long.
Egor Barabanov is a 6.0, 181 pound center from St, Petersburg, Russia. He played last season with Saginaw Spirit of the OHL and is headed to UMass this fall. He turned 20 this week. Craig Button has him No. 45 and the consolidated ranking is No. 85. Edmonton is slated (as of right now) to choose No. 52, so there’s an excellent chance he will still be on the board.
Barabanov is brilliant with the puck, and an elusive player based on scouting reports. He scored 28-63-91 in the OHL, an exceptional junior league. He did it at 19, so we need to dial back the wow factor, but this is a player. He is described as a hard worker, but not a quality two-way player. He’s not big but can win pucks, so there may be a coach out there in the ether who can help him be more effective in intercepting pucks and being on the right side of the play.
If I’m the Oilers, he is a player I look at for the second-round pick. Now, the scouts have to let the GM know about foot speed, et cetera, but math loves him even when considering he is an overage player.
Chase Harrington of the Spokane Chiefs is a likely target for Edmonton. He’s 18, 6.0, 201 pounds and the owner of skill plus a nasty streak. He hits like a truck and scouting reports have him as owning natural two-way ability. He posted almost a point-per-game (28-29-57 in 61 games with the Spokane Chiefs). He is described as a good skater, but the range of assessment on skating at this point in a draft season varies wildly. Oilers have fine scouts, they’ll be able to give Stan Bowman a good idea about this player.
Based on math and what we know from the scouting reports, I think Harrington goes before the Oilers pick. If he is there at No. 52, I think they’ll take him. Hell the club took Reid Schaefer 20 picks earlier not many years ago. Harrington and Schaefer have things in common, although Schaefer is a much bigger winger.
It is common to rip the Oilers amateur scouts, but the work being done by the group has been quality. This is being done under difficult circumstances, as the team doesn’t have many draft picks. This year’s second, assuming the team doesn’t deal the pick, will be one of the few inside the top 60 this decade.
Players who were chosen among the top 60 names by Edmonton since 2020? Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Reid Schaefer, Beau Akey, Sam O’Reilly. Four of the five are already listed on other NHL team’s roster lists, and I don’t think the team is fond of Akey (which is a shame).
Outside the top 60 picks who are matriculating well? Maxim Berezkin, Shane Lachance, Samuel Jonsson, Nikita Yevseyev, Connor Clattenburg, William Nicholl, Tommy Lafreniere, David Lewandowski and Asher Barnett. Under the most difficult circumstances, the team has found players who are pushing and have a chance.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast. We’ll talk about the next Oilers coach and what is going on in the NHL playoffs (basically my worst nightmane). Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Edmonton Oilers coaching search: Top 5 candidates, starting with Bruce Cassidy
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7296198/2026/05/22/edmonton-oilers-coaching-candidates-bruce-cassidy/
Isn’t the next VGK dick move obvious? At the end of their playoffs, they give permission to talk to Cassidy to non-Pacific teams but not Pacific competition. They satisfy the expectation by providing permission while not allowing their division rivals to improve their coaching position.
Could well play out that way.
Is that true LT? If they grant permission don’t they have to grant for all? Or can they pick and choose who they grant permission too?
I think technically they could and it might even give more veracity to the legal enforceability of the clause as its narrowing the geographical area of the clause…..
With that said, I presume the league would not be happy about picking and choosing and they may get more forcefully involved at that time, if t happened.
They can choose who to give permission to. When hiring a coach away from another team, there is usually a discussion between teams of who pays the coach how much. In the NHL, it’s often the new team that pays everything but when you see a coach move from the NHL to AHL, often the new team is paying 500k-1M while the old team pays the remainder. This is essentially why teams almost always give permission.
They could but Vegas also has a unique problem. They don’t have a head coach signed for next season. Should a Pacific division rival decide to “get even”, they just could target Tortorella (if Vegas wants to keep him) or collectively prevent Vegas from speaking to any of their available coaches. Just telling Seravelli that they’re planning on giving Torts $7-8M per year would screw Vegas over.
I suspect that Vegas wants to sort out their own coaching situation before releasing Cassidy but that creates an entirely new problem for them.
That would presume there is a Pacific team that is in need of a new coach.
The only other ones without a coach are Edmonton and Vancouver and the Canucks have already had the Tortorella experience. (it did not go well)
LA also needs a coach and was specifically denied access to Cassidy as well 😉 4/8 teams in the Pacific need a coach next year right now and SJ, Seattle and CGY didn’t make the playoffs. Vancouver fired Foote two days ago.
Don’t count your coaches before they hatch.
There has been no indication that SJS, SEA or CGY are considering a coaching change.
VCR seems poised to hire Manny Malhotra with the latest word being they are working out terms.
Anaheim is set with Quennville.
Its a very good bet Tortorella remains in Vegas.
So that leaves EDM and LAK but DJ Smith has not been fired and is still a candidate to return although they have apparently sought permission to interview Jay Woodcroft and Malhotra.
There is only one non-Pacific Division head coaching spot available and four in division. LA already asked permission.
Why can’t you just admit you were wrong?
Also, the only head coaching spot currently open outside of the Pacific division is in Toronto. That’s 4 spots open in the Pacific division and 1 in the rest of the NHL.
Agreed… Oilers and Pacific in general will not get access to Cassidy. I hate to say it but brilliant move by Vegas for long term planning. Oilers cannot get Cassidy… have to settle for lesser coach than KK… Oilers disappoint again… McDavid leaves… Vegas continues to beat Oilers… another blunder by Bowman… why is he still keeping his job
Vegas continues to beat the Oilers? Vegas pushes the rules, no question. But by current stats the Vegs and Oil are 1-1 going head to head in the playoffs. We will also see on the settle for lesser than KK coach comment.
I don’t see this as a “dick” move. It’s the smart move. It’s the move that should have been anticipated. As should the leak have been anticipated (which to my nose has a strong Vegan smell to it… and, again, a smart move if it was them).
Its a dick move in that not two months ago they had to ask permission to hire a coach from another team. If a guy is fired, it is understood they are able to be hired somewhere else. It is by the letter of the law (thus defensible in court) but completely flies in the face of the convention established by the other 31 teams since the cap came into place (and longer).
I can’t fault them for taking this step, but it is a dick move.
It is to me because it’s unprecedented. There are rules and norms around things because not all competition is healthy. It can go too far, and the ugly side usually seems to start with the attitude of wanting domination and the ends justify the means, collateral damage be damned
Do we want the NHL go full Rollerball? If we do then ditch the cap and the off ice rules and let’s go for it, to the richest and least scrupulous go the spoils. Aye mateys, the Edmonton Black Beards! Hoist the Black Flag, and the players can skate around with flaming beards
The Edmonton Black Beards is an interesting idea. Would anyone from the Oilers make that roster? Would anyone from management make the Black Beards?
What we’ve seen over several seasons or more is that smart mgt works whatever angle they can find to their club’s advantage. Those managers are in a small minority. They think like (or are) lawyers. Sam Pollock built a long lasting dynasty with smart /dick moves. Does GMSB have the cojones to be the GM the Edmonton Black Beards need? I’ve like a lot of what he does. But is he enough of a smart guy (a dick, in fact) to do what the Oilers need, to build for long term, not just the illusory “win now?”
From Justin Bourne, Sportsnet today: “Vegas is the most extreme example of the direction the league is heading. It’s a competitive sport, and you’re trying to win. Maybe it’s no longer trying to win at all costs, but rather trying to win with fewer. At the very least, with more efficient ones.”
To me the Cassidy thing is beyond competing hard and taking available advantages. Bruce is 61, he only has so many years left to coach, and possibly burning one is too cold
The offer sheets? Hard but fair, Jackson capped them out before TCB with youth and got nailed. Smoke someone in a trade? Fair game. Have a better org and start attracting better players? Fruits of your labour
Is there any team in need of a head coach other than Toronto?
From accounts, Toronto isnt’ overly interested and its an unlikely hire so, if he doesn’t go there, Foley will be on the hook for the entire $4.5MM if he doesn’t permit the Pacific in.
Also, I think that, if Vegas permits some teams, and not others, to speak with him, that might be where the league gets a bit more firm with them on this.
Could happen, we’ll see.
What a pickle!
— Should MacT gets anywhere remotely close to any role with the Oilers in a coaching capacity or otherwise the Oilers would be dead to me.
I’m not sure if I would go that far, but agree that MacTavish has demonstrated the limit of his abilities. Running Dubnyk out of town should be enough to prevent him from getting a second look. Although the NHL coaching market is far from an efficient one, the fact that MacTavish has not found another head coaching job since he left the Oilers is telling.
— to each their own. That would be my line in the sand : the triumphant return of someone who hasn’t been in hockey for a bunch of years who never was hired back to similar roles. It would be the culmination and cherry on top of what has ailed the Oil from OBC to today full circle.
— The only other line in sand for oilers being dead to me would be CmD signing here in Toronto.
I think we’re mostly in agreement. If MacT gets the job again the Oilers are doomed. Where we diverge is at that point you jump off the sinking ship while I’m still thinking Maybe It’ll Be Okay? even though we both know it won’t be okay and the water is up to my neck.
— yeah : when your drowning it doesn’t matter how deep it is …!
— I just have my radar up when LT posts stuff like this. He does drop hints if you read carefully…
Woodcroft, MacT and an AHL coach, I don’t think so….
Of note, Jackson/Holland fired Woodcroft – Bowman was not part of the org at the time.
Perhaps he gets an interview……
We know the players were pissed off at themselves for his firing.
Woody would be my choice. Without any inside knowledge however.
With someone like Lalonde as assistant.
He wouldn’t be the first coach to return to a team but I doubt Bowman wants to hitch his wagon to that horse. If he doesn’t get this one right, he’s probably never getting another GM job.
Yes. It’s a hard sell for sure therefore extremely unlikely unless other options disappear.
i dont think Theres any chance Woodcroft comes back with Jackson still in charge. It was pretty obvious he was the key driver behind his firing.
I think there’s more of a chance Stan gets his Dad to come out of retirement than the Oilers going with Woody again.
Stauff saying he thinks Laviolette is the clear #2 option for the team – makes sense to me.
John Shannon, who has lots of connections within the league, does think Vegas will let Cassidy speak with all teams eventually.
Stauffer still on playing McDavid/Drai together thinking that lets them play four lines.
The Oilers braintrust may be fatally broken again if they are contemplating playing McDavid and Draisaitl together.
Stauffer is a definite insider with Oilers information but Stauffer also provides his sole opinion sometime. The Oilers don’t even have a coach yet. This is not an organizational matter but Bob’s opinion.
Carter Hart: “Don’t call it a comeback”
The highly vaunted best centre depth in the league sure isn’t showing it.
Hart is punking the Avs.
Respect Nate, but Makar is who makes Colorado special
.967
.947
Mostly goalie…as always.
as always, the goalposts are moving
Out of curiosity, why has Stan not reached out to Laviolette? We don’t need permission to speak to him.
He may have. It does seem like everything is leaking right now but for all we know they have interviewed him. Stauffer sure talks about him a lot and he would know who we are interested in (though Stauffer is also doing some weird distraction thing now where he is mentioning guys like Babcock)
We don’t know that he hasn’t…. Stauff says he’s the #2 option.
Whoever called McMann Hyman-lite the other day might be right.
His 82 game goal pace the last three years
22 (57 goal pace in the AHL that year)
22
30
6’2, 217. Fast. 29 years old. Sign the man?
Hyman in Toronto – 345 games, 86 Goals
Hyman in Edmonton – 366 games, 175 Goals
I always forget that Hyman’s career high before Edmonton was 21 goals….
However, there is a big reason for the difference:
Hyman in Toronto – 6 Power Play Goals total
Hyman in Edmonton – 51 Power Play Goals total
Weird stat. Hyman has scored exactly 21 EV Goals in 4 of his 5 EDM seasons (his other was 39). In Toronto his best 2 seasons were 20 and 17 EVG.
He’s not hugely different than he was in Toronto, we just utilize him differently.
McMann rode a save percentage heater last year. He’s a 15-20 EVG winger that won’t get PP time in Edmonton (nobody but the top 5 do) but will want to be paid like a 30 Goal winger. I think he’s a good player but can’t see a scenario where he doesn’t get paid more than the value he would bring to the Oilers.
One thing very noticeable of the teams still playing is that all 4 lines are a threat to score. It has been a long time since you could say that about the Oilers. The bottom 6 has been a black hole since forever. Part of this is roster construction but a large part is playing time. Over playing 97 and 29 means reduced minutes available for the bottom two lines. No rhyme no rhythm. Would sure like to see us get there…..
Oilers were 7-4 goals with McDavid and Drai off the ice in the playoffs with a 3.4 G/60 (MUCH higher than McDavid/Drai together (1.79) and McDavid solo (1.68 G/60).
In 2025 playoffs, Oilers were 25-14 goals with McDavid and Drai off the ice.
This bottom six of this team had the ability to help more over the last few years but the coaching staff faded them quick and often, right?
Also F*ck Vegas. And one for St Lois too.
On ice product has been getting bullied. Management getting bullied. Stop it already.
Stop with the self inflicted pressure. You got a good coach on stand by. Try to upgrade but if its not there, you roll out Knoblauch. No panic.
Ha! Love it.
So, they cannot speak to Cassidy but surely they speak to folks around Cassidy?
What is the reason Cassidy is presently unemployed? Because the team he was coaching just exploded after he was replaced. Why?
What is the reason KK is unemployed? Back to back cup finals. Lost both, but better than Cassidy the last two years. The reason is the coach doesn’t matter, until he matters. The contradictive narratives on coaches from the sports world is mind blowing. The coach took them to two finals! But guess what, don’t blame the coach now, it is on the players who have the ultimate responsibility. The truth is likely closer to it is on the players, and if that is true, if a coach is not working, why fret about moving him when he has clearly lost the confidence of the top players?
Vegas regular season save percentage: .879
Vegas playoff save percentage: .918
Unless Tortorella has some magic goalie powers, he’s just getting the saves that Cassidy didn’t.
Carter Hart went from .891 in the regular season to .920 in the playoffs.
Vegas regular season: 29.0 shots for/GP (8th), 24.4 shots against/GP(2nd), PP 24.6%(6th), PK 81.4% (7th)
Vegas playoffs: 27.5 shot for/GP (10/16), 30.0 Shots against/GP (9/16), PP 27.0%(4/16), PK 85.4% (7/16).
The team exploded because the goalie went on a heater.
Gotta get some o them magic goalie powers…
From Marek’s show:
@TheFourthPeriod reports that the Vegas Golden Knights have previously blocked the Edmonton Oilers from pursuing an assistant coach within the Vegas organization
I’m guessing this was either Misha Donskov (asst in Vegas 19 to 22-23) or more likely Ryan Craig (asst from 17-18 to 22-23, then head coach of Henderson in 23-24) as Pagnotta said the individual was elevated in the Vegas organization after they denied him taking the EDM job.
i think Pagnotta said it was for an assistant coach job with The Oilers. Vegas gave permission to interview him but denied when we wanted to hire him.
It is helpful to see that the hatred of the Oilers is not limited to the fan base, and extends all the way up to the management level. The owner and GM should take note, and make everything as difficult as possible for LV every time. Stuff like making it harder to access practice ice, accommodation, flight access, buses, who knows what can subtly be screwed with.
Actually people on twitter think it was Joel Ward, was assistant w Henderson and then became assistant with VGK in 23-24. Must have been looking for an assistant on Woody’s staff
I’ve listened to all of the experts on this Cassidy thing and we know how this ends. We don’t have a case. Cassidy doesn’t have a case. NHLCA doesn’t have a case. NHL doesn’t have a case other than asking nicely.
Vegas will block Edmonton as an option and this “unprecedented event” will trigger the NHLCA to advise agents to change the language going forward and the NHL will wholeheartedly support the change in language so that this doesn’t become the new norm.
But as always, it’ll be too late for Edmonton but like always we’ll be used as the example that changes the way everyone else does business.
Just like the way everyone treated RFAs poorly until Edmonton was targeted and now RFAs get paid.
As angry as this makes us all, and Christ am I mad, my logical self can’t really blame the Oilers all that much.
But kudos to Vegas, they may just have dealt the final blow that pushes Connor McDavid out of their division.
in response, hire a team of lawyers or other outside the box thinkers with the sole purpose of “burning it down”. The Oilers are the #1 profit driving team in the NHL. Use that money to break half the league.
We’re now Ohio State of NCAA football. We couldn’t care less if Montana can keep up.
Float it out there…we’re willing to pay 15 million for the best coach. Five million is our new price for assistants. Top scouts are at 2.5M. Find Every little loophole and exploitable section of the CBA and salary cap. Charitable foundations in the name of every Oilers spouse. Start a private school for Oilers kids worth 100k per year and offer free tuition. An Oilers housing complex of million dollar condos in Edmonton, NYC and Paris the Oilers families can use for life.
Absolutely sink the poor teams.
Our owner is worth 4.2B and Foley 1.6B, make a few phone calls if they want to play hard ball. He’d never do it though
I disagree on not blaming the management for the situation they’re caught up in. There is a significant amount of questionable moves they have made in the past two decades and seem to paint themselves into their own corners quite often.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Oilers have been involved in the unprecedented events. It’s management and ownership near-sightedness lacking a clear vision/plan, along with poor organizational communication.
This is the way. Leverage the dollars to make every advantage possible.
I still don’t think this is 97s last contract, however.
— while the appeal of Cassidy is obvious (and leaked out to make fans excited) the conventional wisdom seems to be “if we don’t get this guy we are screwed”
— I don’t buy that narrative at all. He was let go and at the time no one was clamouring for him to be signed here. The team that fired him is doing better without him
— Do a deep dive into what ailed this team and come up with a coaching staff that can solve it.
— sometimes the obvious choice isn’t the right one. There surely is more than one head coach in the universe that can coach up our team to win the Cup. We just don’t know if Oilers management has the acumen to dig deeper than the most obvious one.
I really think this comes down to the assistant coaches anyways. I think Cassidy has the experience and cache for our superstars to listen to him. The concern is that we fired KK and staff without an assured upgrade.
This is an unusual situation because there were those that wanted KK fired and replaced with Cassidy but new coach speculation isn’t super loud when the current coach who made 2 cup finals is still with the team.
Realistically, the big “want” from fans was to fire management not the coach but now we need a coach.
This is completely inaccurate. There were many immediate calls for the Oilers to hire Cassidy ASAP the moment he was fired.
Perhaps but, if Vegas blocks the Pacific, Cassidy likely doesn’t get hired and I don’t think Foley’s end-game includes being on the hook for $4.5MM.
You forgot to add that Edmonton will also owe Calgary a 2nd round pick.
I really don’t think that Cassidy/Not getting Cassidy is what makes or breaks the team let alone whether McDavid stays or not. A goalie on a .925 heater vs. one on a .880 cold streak is much more likely to be the difference than a coach. As Kevin Lowe would say, Cassidy is a one time winner and eleven time loser. There are other coaches.
Cassidy could be a coach that provides the structure for that heater as opposed to the .880.
Bravo 👏
You forgot that the Oilers block their fired coaches from speaking with other teams. This is the way to go. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Speaking of Berezkin, if anyone missed it over the last few days, he is a back to back KHL champ and we are shortly on full on signing watch.
I’ll need to check but I think he may be unavailable to sign until end of May but he will be.
It will be an ELC and, I believe, 2 years but will need to check (length is a function of signing age).
He’s under contract until May 31st, and he’s only eligible to sign a 1-year ELC due to his age.
Russian language social media reporting he will sign; this is a journalist from Sport Express:
https://t.me/tebevukhokriknut/18046
«По моей информации, нападающий Локомотива Максим Березкин по окончании сезона подпишет контракт новичка с Эдмонтоном.»
Translation (rough, apologies to native speakers): According to my information, forward Maxim Berezkin will sign a contract with Edmonton at the end of the season.
Edit: in Russian, a player’s +/- score is referred to as a показателе полезности, maybe best rendered as a utility score or a utility indicator? I like it!
Only the worst kind of monster replies to his own posts, but TASS is reporting that it’s less cut and dry. The headline is Berezkin won’t say if he will go to the NHL, quoting the player: “Сейчас я хочу насладиться победой, а там уже будет дальше известно все.” Which reads as “Right now I want to enjoy the triumph, and then everything will be known.”
https://allhockey.ru/news/show/596126-Maksim_Berezkin_ne_stal_govorit_uedet_li_on_v_NHL
So, as our host says, we wait. (In Russian: Мы ждём.)
It’s difficult with Russian players because there tends to be backlash against them if they sign in North America. Sometimes that even means reduced playing time or sitting in the press box. It sounds like he will be coming but knows he can’t comment. If he was staying in Russia, he’d likely have said that.
He said straight up that he was thinking of coming over for this past season but wanted one more year to develop in the KHL. His dream is the NHL. Will be shocking if he doesn’t sign. Bob talking about it tonight.
I like this: “and then everything will be known.”
Oh sure, draft a Russian. What could go wrong? 😆
Friedman also thinks both Cossa and Levi could be moved.
If I was Howard I wouldn’t unpack.
There’s no reason to move Howard for a young unproven tender when there’s several available for draft capital. Howard being on his ELC and ready to go is far too much to give up.
Imo moving Howard would be for an impact top 6 winger in the same age range as 97/29. Howard would look great in Boston.
I agree with this take and I believe that since Bowman traded for him, he’ll be inclined to keep him/value him in line with a 1st round pick. I am worried though that “desperately need a goalie” becomes the Mantra and we pull a “did you want me to get him for free?” here. Because, yes. Lots of young, unproven goalies are about to become waiver eligible. Not so many 2/3Cs and top-six wingers.
Bowman did not trade for Howard.
Oh right, I forgot that. They were “looking” for a GM on the 8th and totally not talking to Bowman before the 24th.
Agree on the first statement.
I believe management understands this player likely provides material value for this cap hit the next two years.
Of course, the poster responding does not have any grasp of prospect development or reasonable expectations on timelines of arrival.
Friedman speculating the Sabres could more Kesselring (RFA, one year left to UFA) – he thinks he’s better than he showed and he needs to play and BUF is looking to fit Tuch, Baram and Benson in long term.
I’d have time for Kesselring
That was a poor trade moving him for Bjugstad. I’d certainly welcome him back
Can they slot him in to 2RD and be comfortable? I don’t know the answer to that.
I’d still be looking to re-sign Murphy and think this would mean Emberson would be traded out and he is very good at his 3RD role and needs more responsibility on the PK.
Kesselring would be a great 3RD if he was cheap enough. His QO is 1.47M and anything around $2M (doubtful though) would be amazing value if he comes back from his injuries at a high level next season.
As the plan at 2RD, I think the Oilers are repeating their mistake again. We’ve needed a solid/certain 2RD for years.
I never suggested that he’s a 2RD but that is a great point
For me Murphy as a 2 d has a very good chance to disappoint based on lack of puck moving and who he’s likely to be paired with.
I’d rather take the risk with Kesslering and hope/expect improvement by second half of the season.
I also realize that people in control need more of a sure thing which is Murphy.
Friedman says the Oilers will wait until Vegas is done to see if they can talk to Cassidy. No surprise.
I assume this is going to be like how teams aren’t allowed to talk to UFAs prior to free agency but then come 12:01 a lot of them have contracts already.
Would you like to read this 100-page, 7 year contract for $100M before you sign it? No, I trust that you’re a good dude and that everything in here is as you “guessed” I would want it…..😜
I don’t know the non pro prospects very well but from various accounts, including Bruce Curlock, last year’s draft is trending very well – most outpacing their draft position so far.
Let’s do it again Stan!
This.
“Win now” moves since 2015 have kept this team at or near the cliff of precipitous decline. The coach pickle is pretty dire. Building for the future is necessary, now.
No one knows who the coach is this year.
No one knows where McD will be in a year or three.
Everyone knows this organization will need to ice 20+ players October 2028. Build that fast, talented, young, hungry future, now. Build it as if there are no miracles or messiahs coming.
Excuse me if I’m stating the obvious.
NHL playoffs are brutal. Colorado puts up a dominant season only to have Makar injured for the conference finals. I didn’t think Vegas had a chance in hell of making the Cup Finals but a Makar injury definitely opens the window.
— The Stanley Cup always seemingly identifies and rewards a “traditional” winner. It’s a neat championship that way IMO. Rarely is it a team that wins other than the profiles of the 4 teams left
— There are only 3 categories of winners.
— Vegas or the Avs are “traditional” Cup winners : won a cup recently and have their core still intact (or trades of core for more core) with all time HoF players.
— Carolina is another “traditional” Cup winner : gone deep a number of times
— Montreal : if they win the only way it’s a “traditional” win is if in 10 years we look back and see they won multiple Cups and got one early. Teams that have limited playoff experience in recent years rarely win the Cup.
— I’m cheering for the Habs to win the Cup this year. Regardless they will enter next year as one of the handful of “traditional” Cup contenders.
— St- Louis and Carolina are the only two teams that come to mind in the last many decades that weren’t traditional winners. That’s pretty remarkable championship format
Yep. Playoffs are too long and brutal to give underdogs/ new contenders much chance.
MTL went to the finals five years ago and has 6 players from that team playing in the 2026 playoffs (Suzuki, Caufield, Evans, Danault, Anderson, Gallagher) along with two prior winners (Newhook, Blais) so I would say you could call them “traditional” as well as this happens often as well.
Teams that lost and then won in the next five years: Florida (2023->2024), Vegas (2018->2023), Tampa Bay (2015->2020), Pittsburgh (2008->2009), Anaheim (2003->2007), Carolina (2002->2006).
In the cap era, of the 16 teams that have lost a Stanley cup final, only 8 of them haven’t also won a cup. Of the 20 cups won, 10 were won by teams that also have a finals loss in the cap era.
— I don’t see them as a traditional team that way. Teams like them 5 years ago: they do sometimes go deep some times but they lose to a traditional team (in that case Tampa)
— it was clearly an anomaly as they missed playoffs next what 3 years ago. That was the Carey Price last hurrah Shea Weber Perry Cinderella story that invariably goes down to a traditional cup profile winner.
— Traditional Cup winners don’t miss playoffs 3 years in a row then lose in first round then win a Cup (unless it’s the start with hindsight that f a great era). It’s a stretch to point to a nexus from 5 years ago IMO.
Montreal is the only canadian team to properly jump on a rare market opportunity.
Flat cap era retool or rebuilding.
The premiums teams had to pay for everything to get out from under self inflicted wounds and try to improve tesms playoff chances was crazy.
I think the changing of the guard between lottery chasers to playoff qualifiers to legitinate threats is going to be a more shocking volume of teams transition than we’ve ever seen.
Like some if those prospect pools and rfa loaded teams is just crazy.
If i was in the contender level group with not much wiggle room i would swriously be commiting solid resources to a guy looking to exploit some of the inevitable perfectly rip apples that are sure to fall on the ground while these over saturated teams are tryimg to harvest.
Like i really did appreciate bowman getting dach thrown in on that deal.
That kind of stuff is surely a very ripe exploitable avenue the next 2-4 years. Between that stopping to consider what draft picks at deadline might be used for in offseason offer sheets the potential for an aging out of contention team can truly retool on the fly easier than any other point if one was really thinking ahead here.
Like detroit is dumping goalies maybe because they have too many to put in key development roles.
There is going to be a lot of this and especially for the longer track type positions of goalie and solid 2 way defenseman (aka the hardest positiond to fill or get premier options at deadline) -> some steals will quite obviously be possible.
I truly hope edmonton will decide to retool over drive bus off cliff trying to win 1 if it comes to it.
This would likely be my last year of “all in”
in 2004 TBL won a cup after missing the playoffs in 6 of the previous 7 seasons, in 2015 they made the final after making the playoffs in only 1 of the previous 3 seasons,
in 2006 Carolina won a cup after not making the playoffs since 2002
in 2007 the Ducks won after making the playoffs in 2 of their previous 6 seasons
in 2008 the Penguins made the finals after missing the playoffs in 4 of the previous 5 seasons
in 2010 the Blackhawks won a cup after missing the playoffs in 5 of their last 6 seasons
in 2012 the LA Kings won after missing the playoffs 6 season in a row and losing in the first round twice.
in 2016 the Penguins won a cup after winning only 4 rounds in 6 seasons after their 2009 cup.
in 2019 the Blues won the cup after not making the playoffs the previous year
in 2023 the Knights won the cup after not making the playoffs the previous year
in 2026 the Avalanche have won 1 playoff series in 3 seasons since their 2022 win, Vegas has won 1 playoff series since their 2023 win
Carolina has sustained success yet has won only one game in the conference finals in the last 8 seasons despite this being their 4th trip.
Top scorer of the 2021 playoffs for Montreal – Nick Suzuki, top scorer of the 2026 playoffs – Nick Suzuki.
4 of Montreal’s top 7 scorers in 2026 were on the 2021 team.
Having players that have been there before on the same team, that’s the “traditional” success story.
?
— every single one of these teams fits the criteria’s I’ve identified. I think you think your examples refute the premise of the characteristics that Cup teams generally share. You have actually confirmed my premise : thanks !
— Cup winners tend to be ones that win a few with a core of HoFs and/or a bunch of years of playoffs leading up and/or win one early and then more or contend in the subsequent seasons. That’s all the teams you mentioned (but provide false narratives):
— Tampa won a round year before and then Cup then were in playoffs a few years after side note: interesting tree : Bergevin played 1 game for them !
— Anaheim was in Cup 2 years prior had gone deep and good for a bunch of years before and after
— Penguins : were in the cup the year before and a good team for many years after an Hof and won more Cups.
— Blackhawks: won multiple Cups (this is the win one early then more later that maybe Habs could be with hindsight)
— Kings : won one early then more (like the Habs might be with hindsight)
— Blues : yeah that’s one that I said was exception
— Knights : they missed the year prior but good and went deep for many seasons before and have chance to win a second (this one in particular shows me you just want to disagree and select facts).
— Av : have been in playoffs many years a second Cup puts them in those penguins teams with gaps between but good for a long time.
— the Habs are a good team now. Next year they are profile of team that wins IMO
— it’s really exceptional for a team that has little recent playoff success or missed playoffs a bunch of years prior to win the Cup
— Stanley Cup has historically done a great job of rewarding teams that share one or a few of the same attributes.
—There are rarely surprise teams that catch lightning in a bottle and win that weren’t contenders before (unless with hindsight it was the start of a great run)
— Teams that win a Cup don’t generally suck for the few years before and miss the playoffs for many consecutive years thereafter.
I’m pointing out that your “traditional” winners often suck for years before and after winning a cup. Montreal having 8 players in their prime that have been to a final before, is exactly what winning teams generally have.
— except your examples and what really happens historically refute this: teams that win cups have been successful leading up to a cup run and generally continue to go to playoffs seasons after.
— that’s the beauty of the Cup IMO almost always its a team that ends up winning a bunch and have success before and after their cup. I don’t see how you conclude that Cup winners suck before and after. It’s the opposite: the Cup winners are good teams over many seasons, rarely one offs.
— I don’t think Montreal first round loser last year missing playoffs 3 years prior fits that mould. You seem hung up on their Cup finals 5 years ago and believe this is. Nexus. I’m looking at the missed playoffs 3 years and first round exit. They sucked for many years and now are good.
— Regardless if they win this year they ought to be good going forward.
I gave you several examples of teams that did not make the playoffs the year before they won. Tampa Bay hasn’t won a round since their last trip to the finals. “Success before and after the cup” is what? Losing in the first round?
This is a funny series for me. On the one hand I’d like to see the Habs win too, on the other, it would be cool for Dellow and King to get their cup rings.
I don’t really see the Habs winning this year, but what a wagon.
Gorton was the type of manager I had wished the Oilers had hired.
They have so many good players all clustered around the same age and just need to burn off some legacy contracts.
They are going to have a long run.
— yeah : they also let their rookie head coach grow with the team with management and the roster..
If I was an NHL GM, I think my number one question for scouts would be “can he skate?” immediately followed by “can he make and take a pass?”.
I believe it was Sam Gagner’s dad who told him that he’ll never be a rabbit but they could make him a fast turtle. When looking at the 2007 draft, the Oilers took the higher skilled Centre Gagner over the Fast Train Voracek. Both had 1000+ game careers but Gagner was never quite able to become more than a good second liner while Voracek was a true first liner.
LT is right, you need to draft players that have the things you can’t teach.
The top two assets scouts look for is compete and hockey IQ. Every other skill can be taught. Including skating to some degree.
Size can’t be taught but is not necessary for success although it certainly helps.
Your Gagner example is a good one. Not fast, not big, not a great shot but high hockey IQ and high compete. Sam had very good career.
Corey Perry can’t skate but high IQ and compete. Matt Tkachuk ect. Even Draisaitl wasn’t a great skater when drafted but now is.
I’d say that “compete” is squarely in the category of skills that can be acquired. Lots of “lazy” 17 year-olds become hard workers. Very few un-athletic 17-year-old hockey players become super athletic speed demon skaters.
Skating can be improved but a substantial amount comes down to genetics. Hockey IQ can be learned as well. Lots of guys figure out where to go and when to be there. The mental and physical ability, accuracy and agility to make/take a pass should be there and obvious 10 years into playing competitive hockey.
Lots of big players don’t make the NHL. Lots of hard workers don’t make the NHL. Often because they can’t skate. Draisaitl wasn’t a great skater due to style, not physical ability. You can teach style, you can’t teach fast twitch muscle fibres.
Corey Perry is an outlier more than the rule. Can a slow player be good? Yes. Is there a strong correlation between skating and scoring? Double yes. https://apexhockey.com/nhl-edge/
Thanks. I mostly agree.
With IQ you can teach it for sure but there is a limit that you can’t go beyond(Darnell).
Kids can be pushed to compete but you can tell the ones that have it or don’t.
Corey Perry is an outlier but there are many currently and in the past. Andrechuck, Matt tkachuk. Skating is certainly an asset and I agree players like Leon are able to improve with proper technique training.
The third thing scouts ask about with compete and IQ is quality of person. That’s a big one that doesn’t necessarily show up on ice in limited viewings. Lots of questions about family, community, schooling, extra away from hockey stuff.
Not being able to teach IQ is definitely a thing for players that lack the “processing power” if you will.
I read an article once about how teams were all doing their assessments at the combine. The journalist was sitting in a hotel room with three future mid-first round picks and each had 20+ assessments to fill out and he noted that they were trying to answer the way their agents had told them. Which is funny because the scouts are going to talk to everyone around that player and try to get their sense of him that way.
Marchand is a really good example of that. Lots of skill and scouts knew it but he’s always been an ass so he got picked in the third round.
Thanks. Great discussion!
That was quite a game last night. Montreal executed how to break the high pressure over loading really well. It kind of stung a bit, because that is what the Oilers were supposed to do against the panthers and couldn’t do. B Curlock even posted a tactics article describing using the weak side and getting up the ice quickly as the counter
I think the Oilers should play how they play. They create higher % chances offensively, and attack the net front off the cycle hard. My Habs pal says they play man on man defensively, I don’t know about that, but they didn’t leave much of anything for the Canes in the Habs end
LT might have called it. Habs buddy was certain they would win last night
Montreal also had Carolina’s number during the regular season – they know how to counter that heavy wall-centric forecheck and have the speedy horses to do it.
Brindy will adapt and Carolina’s best players will improve but, as long as Dobes outplays Andersen (who seemed surprised to have breakaways against him), this is now the habs series to lose. They’re also remarkably healthy for how much they’ve played.
I’ve read a couple of times that the Canes are usually low event but give up rush chances. Can be hard on the goalie. I think Bowman is taking the roster in the direction of Montreal. They need to also play a similar game to what we saw yesterday
Interesting that so many chances last night were off of stretch passes. Both teams used the stretch or the flip to neutral to beat pressure.
Carolina will have to adjust, they over pursued on at least two goals. Four guys going to the same area leaving Montreal players wide open the slot and off the rush.
…the swarm… it’s lives on!
Somewhere Dallas Eakins is smiling.
Ya, that is very noticeable. Interestingly, KK was skewered for the same.
It’s mostly the trigger that is different. Montreal and Carolina use it when full eyes up possession is a given. Oiler players use it when Darnell MIGHT get the puck. Very different results.
Agreed. Very noticeable. Not only to beat pressure, but to turn it against the Hurricane.
Goaltending (Dobes) was the difference in regular season games v Hurricanes. Habs were often significantly outshot.
However, here I’m paraphrasing from others (including and especially Kevin Woodley), Carolina shoot a lot (and Habs tend to keep these from the perimeter, low quality), don’t give up as many shots, but ones they do give up are high quality/high danger (breakaways, odd man rushes), as we saw last night.
cdammr and Fibonacci yesterday were talking about strategy to time your team’s rise to other’s decline, EPL being the example from cdammr. I like that type of thinking, but I’m not sure how easy it is to do that in the NHL
The EPL doesn’t have a hard cap on player’s contracts, they have a cap on total spending on players and head coaches. But that cap is related to the team’s revenues, so it’s a have and have not situation like the NHL once was
Player movement is also inelastic in the NHL because GMs are mostly not that aggressive, and movement clauses abound, it doesn’t seem as hard to make moves in the EPL. Add in the hard cap and I don’t think it will work the same in the NHL
Teams do have a process of growth and decline, but timing that against certain other teams doesn’t seem realistic
In the EPL you’d also be timing your growth vs. decline against a smaller # of teams
I’d agree you can’t really do this in the NHL. Pittsburgh won cups in ’16 and ’17 in large part due to the unexpected/uncertain rise of Matt Murray, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Connor Sheary, etc. at the right time.
In a strictly hypothetical sense, if two of the Oilers young players suddenly became 40 goal scorers and they trade for a young goalie who suddenly has a .930 save percentage, that would be a huge, huge advantage in a cap world.
Put another way: Colorado won a cup in 2022, lost Landeskog for 3(1) years, won one round in three years, and in 2026 is the favourite to win. Trying to time your rise would still put everything in the hands of fate, you would just be trying to win less often.
Yes and hockey is said to be 50% luck. That throws a big hitch in the giddy up
Yep. It’s wild how often the team that scores more goals in a playoff series is also the one that goes home or how an unbeatable team suddenly can’t score or stop a puck.
Even things like injuries. If Draisaitl was healthy in the 2024 final, we probably win. He missed way wide on several wide open shots from his scoring spot. Or in 2025, if Hyman had been able to play. Or 2006 when Carolina won, they had some serious help via injuries to players on the other side (Saku Koivu, Roloson, the entire Buffalo Sabre defence).
It’s a lot of luck, just try to win every chance you get.
50%? Maybe the hockey gods play a bigger role than that via physical injuries (because the NHL prides itself on hurt over talent), head injuries (ditto), owner meddling, locker room culture/drama, among other things.
Trying to build a team “against” another team would seem to double the impact of the hockey gods and their mercurial ways. Especially when other teams are using offer sheets/Cap tools or access to fired coach to build their clubs and/or f*k with yours. That is, “if” other teams are doing their best to build against you.
While what you say is true, NHL teams CAN help facilitate the decline of their rivals.
Vegas might be doing that right now with the coaching debacle and the Blues certainly targeted the Oilers.
Assume for a moment that San Jose decides to target the Oilers this offseason.
The Sharks have $41.5 million in cap space and 8 draft picks including 2 first round picks including one they received from the Oilers in the Jake Walman trade.
The Sharks are in dire need of defensemen particularly RD.
They could easily target Connor Murphy at a cap hit the Oilers could not match and do the same with Kapanen, Dickinson and Dach should they choose to do so all for under $10 million total.
If, as expected, they draft one of Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoff with the second overall pick, their RD issues are solved.
1 RD Reid/Verhoff
2 RD Murphy
3 RD Eric Pohlkamp (1st pairing potential signed after a stellar career at U of Denver)
4 RD Vincent Deharnais.
Assuming they can sign Murphy for around $5 million, with Reid/Verhoff, Pohlkamp on ELCs and Desharnais around $2 million they could immediately solve their RD problems for under $10 million.
Pretty sure they would like to move on from the final year of Barclay Goodrow and his $3.6 million cap hit since he is now playing 4LW and should easily be able to do so if they throw in a draft pick which would cover the Kapanen and Dach contracts.
I’m not saying they will/would do this, but the potential to screw the Oilers is certainly there since the Oilers would have to replace those players in a very think free agent market.
I hope San Jose signs Murphy to 5 mil x 4 and Dickinson to 4×4 and Kappy to 4 x4. Then trade for Nurse.
Thanks Mike.
Signing a UFA hardly meets the definition of definition of “targeting a team”. Good grief.
Dude has the Oilers losing RFA Dach and three UFAs for “under 10 million” because SJ is gonna “overpay” 4 players just because they were Oilers and the Oilers would then be screwed because there are no other UFAs? I feel like most teams don’t shoot themselves in the foot just because they hope the guy next to them catches some shrapnel.
Also, if the Oilers could get Murphy, Dickinson, Kapanen and Dach for under 10 Million, I’d say that’s a pretty good deal. That leaves $7 Million for a 2C and a goalie.
Good grief.
Signing 3 free agents from a division rival certainly is targeting a team.
Whatever, you are so full of shit that no one can have any sort of serious conversation with you. Your take on every matter is that every other team is good and the Oilers are bad.
Sam Pollock was not the first nor the last to be thinking about destabilizing other teams to his team’s advantage. It’s borderline conspiracy theory to imagine some of what you’re suggesting —but that’s the kind of conspiracy every GM/PoHo needs to be engaged in and wary of, no?
Can you build a team “against” another? That seems like too much tempting of the hockey goods/luck etc.
Should you be building the best team you can, absolutely. And if you can weaken or otherwise destabilize your competition, even better. Vegas is, right now, giving the masterclass, as you suggest.
ps. For whatever the reasons beyond building their own roster, the Blues and their offer sheets have created consternation and mistrust in Oilerville for years to come. Doubt about Jackson/Bowman is a dark cloud in the Ville.
Any GM who has cap/draft ammunition like SJS and ANA who doesn’t utilize predatory action is pissing away a huge advantage.
It all started with a few teams being willing to absorb bad contracts in return for picks and/or prospects but through offer sheets and strategic signings they can ramp up the warfare.
That was the gist of Mike Gillis’ assertion yesterday that smart teams should hire an assistant GM specifically to identify and exploit the weaknesses of competitors on a full time basis.
So, any GM with cap space that doesn’t overpay for other team’s UFAs is making a mistake? Losing their advantage? Overpaying players is how you lose your cap space advantage, FYI. There are 317 pending UFAs. You can’t overpay them all.
No no. Other teams can overpay and it’s a “strategic advantage” but when the Oilers overpay, for a better player, it’s a major sin. It’s like trying to have a discussion with a wall.
I did not say San Jose should over pay.
And when you have more than $40 million in cap space AND an additional $40 million the following season, you can make any competitor uncomfortable.
Cap space is only valuable if you use it.
How to use it is the subject of a debate but sitting on it is a vast waste of opportunity.
I am heartened you took note of my recent Harrington suggestion LT!
I do think he sounds like a perfect fit for team needs based on skill and playstyle (have seen comparisons to Sam Bennett on the latter, but meant as a compliment haha) while also being in the discussion for bpa at that point in the draft.
Should they not get him they may look at a right shot similar style winger in Zac Olsen who may be available in the 3rd round. He is slightly bigger and similarly described as having an utterly relentless motor and physicality along with some skill and speed. Offensive boxcars are certainly lower compared to Harrington, but Olsen played on the low scoring Blades this year alongside Lewandowski, so we know Oil scouts will be familiar with him as well.