I think we have a strong indication now about Rick Pracey’s preferred draft prospect. Please read this.
He likes the 200-foot player and is willing to overlook lack of offensive ability if it means the player brings enough range to the game. Sam O’Reilly, his first pick as Oilers scouting director, set the template for Edmonton with Pracey in charge. Tommy Lafreniere a year ago had some similar skills, and the first pick this summer (Rudolfs Berzkalns) is more than a little shy in the offensive box:
- Sam O’Reilly NHLE 2023-24: 8-14-22
- Tommy Lafreniere NHLE 2024-25: 9-11-20
- Rudolfs Berzkalns NHLE 2025-26: 6-6-12
Now, none of these players has arrived in the NHL yet, and none are AHL regulars as of this summer. So we are dealing in early days of Pracey eval. If you told me “Lowetide, Pracey and Michael Parkatti have discovered that USHL offense is badly underrated by NHLE” then I would be listening. I would tell you, however, that I’ve always used .27 NHLE as the multiplier for USHL scoring because I’ve long believed the USHL is a stronger league than the numbers imply. Put simply, the USHL brilliance is lagging. It’ll come out in the wash, but in the meantime even with .27 as the multiplier Berezkans comes out shy offensively. I think we have to, in fairness, call the Berzkalns selection a misstep until further notice. I don’t make the rules. Blame math.
No. 58 LC Rudolfs Berzkalns, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). There’s a lot to like from this player, including strong two-way awareness, size (6.04 and 204) and speed. Alas, you just can’t project shy junior scorers into middle-six NHL roles. Now, old Toe Blake taught Gilles Tremblay where the goals came from, and maybe Parkatti’s found a better mousetrap for NHL equivalencies as they apply to USHL centers with defensive chops. Hell if I know. NHLE 12.
No. 84: LW Malcom Gästrin, MoDO (Swe Jr). This looks like a more traditional draft pick in the second-third round. Gästrin won’t turn 18 for six weeks, and placed second on his Swedish junior team in points. The best MoDo forward age 17 last year was Elton Hermansson, who went in the first round. I think Gästrin, with his speed, skill and two-way reptuation, might be the best player Edmonton drafted on Saturday. NHLE 17.
No. 133 LD Andrew Robinson, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). There’s nothing special in the numbers here, but the scouting report includes plus foot speed, defensive acumen and a cerebral player. He can outlet, and his pairing was on the good side of the even-strength goal share. The truth is there isn’t much we can tell ourselves about Robinson. Brandon Davidson had a similar scouting report, and he was money, if that helps. Two-way blue, will never see the power play but could develop from here. NHLE 10.
No. 180: RC Caden Harvey, Windsor Spitires (OHL). The scouting report on Harvey is as interesting as the one on Berzkalns. Unlike Berzkalns, Harvey is not consistent. A power-forward dwells in this skill set, but he doesn’t always make himself known. He’s 6.01, 183 and still a teenager, so this is the kind of bet I like a team to make. More risk, more ceiling. NHLE: 13.
No. 212: G Ryan Cameron, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL). He posted a ridiculous year in the NAHL in 2024-25 (.947 save percentage) but his first year in the ECHL was a pedestrian (.882 save percentage) performance. None of the Cedar Rapids goalers delivered anything close to .900, and there were goalies well over .900 across the USHL a year ago. He is a draft and follow, and we’ll know by the end of the decade or early next.
There are few things in sports I enjoy more than a draft and follow. I discovered the practice during my years as a baseball fan. A team would take some kid who had barely played ball because he was so young but had potential. A crusty old scout would be quoted in Baseball America saying “well, my car broke down in Barstow and I had to stay over. Found a high school game and this kid is all arms and legs, loosy-goosy, but I clocked him at 89, which was more than he weighed at the time. He’s a kid we like, if he can get a foot on that fastball of his and we can get his entire body heading to the plate at the same time, maybe we have something” and it stuck with me as a chance to cheat the system. Any system.
Long odds, mind, but better to take a player whose photo hasn’t quite developed but is intriguing, than one who is fully developed and unimpressive. I think the draft and follow here is Harvey. Although he played all year, no one could get a handle on him. Kids develop at different times, maybe Harvey clocks opponents next season and the Oilers grab something very good.
An early look at Edmonton Oilers’ new prospects after 2026 NHL Draft
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7401245/2026/06/28/edmonton-oilers-nhl-draft-2026-prospects/
An underwhelming draft, even if we are well short of the five year window needed to assess the picks.
Meh – pretty much every pick in the 2025 draft had a great D+1 season and is trending ahead of their draft position. Does it seem underwhelming now? I guess but was anyone whelmed a year ago? I recall, generally, the “declared winners” of draft day, July 1, trade deadline day often turns out not to be.
Let’s chat in a year.
I think that’s the thing with drafts. We see people jumping up and down to draft Toni Rajala, he played in SHL as an 18 year-old, and there was much rejoicing when we picked him at 101 overall.
He came over, lit up the ECHL with 38 points in 28 games, the AHL with 45 points in 46 games and then promptly went home, never to come back to North America.
Pick 102 was Mattias Ekholm.
That draft NHL Central Scouting’s European Skater list had MPS at 2, OEL at 4, Klingberg at 7, Orlov at 9, Rajala at 11, Tatar at 14, Lander at 19, Gudas at 43,
and Ekholm at 113. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t know if anyone outside of LT ever goes back and re-visits their post-draft analysis but I do know that everyone looks foolish in hindsight.
https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/rankings/year-to-year-central-scouting-rankings/2009-2/2009-csb-final-eur-skaters/
Well, let’s chat in five years as I suggested. Then we will know.
Are you convinced any of those Draft+1 players be impact players in the NHL?
While it’s normal for almost any young prospect to improve with age and experience, it’s not very consequential if they develop into bottom 6 wingers or depth defenders.
You can pick those up for cheap every offseason.
Do you see any top 6 forwards or top 4 D in that group?
There is a difference between normal improvement with age and experience than having a draft +1 year that exceeds draft day expectations.
Will Tommy Laffreniere be a top 6 forward? I don’t know but I’ll sure take a 41 goal season (in which he didn’t even turn 19 until 5 months in to it). Hence the point.
Whose expectations…yours?
You may want to consider that Lafrenière trailed Kamloops 17 year old leading scorer JP Hurlburt by 20 points and was a team worst -15.
WHL scoring leader Markus Ruck, another 17 year old, had 108 points, 29 more than LaFreniere while his twin brother scored 45 goals and was +47.
Context matters,
What in the world does a census first round pick and a due drafted at the top of the 2nd round have to do with Laffreniere. I’m talking about the Oilers mid 3rd round pick and you brining up non-comparable does nothing honest.
99% of what he posts here is disingenuous trolling. Been like that since the dawn of this site.
Says the troll who thought Joe Colbourn was going to have a better career than Leon, or that Rathbone was the second coming of Cale Makar. You have less than zero credibility here.
If you can get any level of NHL player outside of the first round you should be pretty happy. Third line forward would be an excellent outcome for any of the guys they selected last year and all are trending well
This. You’re not drafting impact players out of the top of the first without luck. Or we’d see more of them. But regular players shouldn’t be discounted, because of the cap. If you can find players that make the NHL as regulars you have mined assets to continue contending
Third and fourth line wingers are always available. Bottom pairing D too.
For example, EVERY member of Caroline’s bottom 6 was acquired by means other than the draft.
Spending years waiting for them to develop is an enormous waste of time and resources unless they have very special skill sets.
They are much cheaper when you draft them. But what is the alternative you’re suggesting? You draft guys who have top 9 potential, and hope they turn into top 6, but you are happy if they turn into anything. Not sure what else you can do, not many teams are find top 6/4 outside of the first two rounds.
You write Meh? The author of this blog has been applying his grades the day after the draft, with success and interest, for a long time. I’ve enjoyed and value his writing and his opinions. We can imply many others feel the same, give the tenure, the success and the contributors over the years.
My response of “meh” was the the substance of a poster’s post, not the to the author.
One other thing I picked up on in the Pracey interview was that he was saying he was lucky to see the Windsor spitfires, as they are only 2 mins from his house. Then he picks 2 of them? Recency bias? Eye test bias?
wth is this Team Sports hyperlink infesting everyone’s posts…?
No issue here, Brave browser does a great job filtering out that kind of nonsense.
Another man of culture I see.
It always takes me a moment to think about what life is like browsing the web without Brave.. and I hate that life.
Stephen Ellis:
Only one Canadian-born OHL goaltender was drafted this weekend: Zachary Jovanovski to Carolina.
One Canadian-born WHL goaltender, too: Parker Snell to Columbus.
Two out of the QMJHL.
Weird time for Canadian goaltending.
On the flip side, six Czech goalies were taken. #NHLDraft
But why spend the pick on any of them at all? Spending years waiting for them to develop is an enormous waste of time and resources.
For example, BOTH of Carolina’s goaltenders were acquired by means other than the draft.
Kesselring 4X$4.5 million in San Jose.
Grier must not realize he’s just some garbage oiler prospect.
Lot’s of bad contracts getting signed this offseason. Kesselring has had less than 2 decent seasons, and his last season was a catastrophe. He should be signing a prove-it deal. Instead, he’s making Murphy’s deal look reasonable.
It’ll be interesting to see what transpires. He was dealing with a knee and ankle injury and never got on track. The tools are there. I wouldn’t bet against him (he was my target for 2RD but the acquisition price was more than we had to give).
Kesselring’s contract is likely to age far better than Murphy’s or Walman’s, and perhaps even Ekholm’s.
Maybe … or maybe last season was a harbinger of what’s to come, and he’s the new Mark Fayne.
Nice! I didn’t see yesterday that the ducks dealt carlsons rights to carolina. I was hoping he might not end up there. Be interesting to see what they end up with on backend. Considering most of the ufa “higher end” defenseman played there last year.
Like trouba, carlson and gudas if 2 of 3 sign elewhere is a pretty massive hole
From listening to Pracey’s avail they clearly have a strategy they believe in and are sticking to. It’s a long ways from the throwaway picks we used to spend late picks on BCHL overagers.
Pracey on Robinson, paraphrased
“skating and puck moving is his calling card. stamps our philosophical approach to trying to find hidden value. Started as a rookie. Toi increased game by game in the second half. Top 4 to top pairing, on both special teams. Significant importance during the playoff run. Played all over from offensive role to a shut down role. If the second half is representative of his offense potential we believe in it.lots of turnover in Windsor next year he’ll be a big part of their team.”
He seems to really like Robinson. He will be fun to watch next year. Says he thinks he really lucked out based on where he lived for viewings (Kingsville, 45 mins from Windsor). Windsor moved D at the deadline which gave him opportunity. They considered him in second round.
on Harvey
”was a rookie in Windsor. had a really good club up front in Windsor. Tough for him to get traction. Have him as an offensive player. Had him as a third round/fourth round value based on skill/sense. Opportunity played a big factor in him getting to us and we think he has the ability to pop.”
”I’ll have some explaining to do to my wife. Travel around the world all year and picked two guys from my backyard.”
Robinson in his first 27 games – 4 points, 0.15 points per game
Robinson in his last 36 games – 20 points, 0.55 points per game
Pierre LeBrun:
Still some final touches needed, and it can’t be announced officially until July 1, but Flyers and Dan Vladar closing in on five-year extension which will carry $5.5M AAV.
PuckPedia:
Nashville signed recently acquired 26 y/o F Jack Drury to a 5 year $4.5M cap hit contact
Yr 1: $4M Salary
Yr 2-5: $4.625M Salary
Full NTC Yr 2-3, 8 team NTC Yr 4-5
Deal covers 1 RFA & 4 UFA seasons
Makes the Dickinson contract look like a steal.
That’s a good contract for both team and player
One decent season in a career spent mostly as a backup, and he’s signing the Jack Campbell contract. Jarry has had a far better career to date and is paid the same for only 2 more years.
Here is a video posted on Reddit of Babcock giving a 30 minute talk at a coaches symposium. I haven’t watched it all but it’s pretty interesting. You can get a good sense of his personality. Says he acted like a “jackass” to Kyle Dubas haha. Talks about how important it is for the GM and coach to be working together constantly.
https://youtu.be/2VXgr5kIY1w?si=pMuYvLF0zwDnlRun
Very interesting talk. Key moments re: Oilers are at 17m00s, where he talks about how a freshman asst coach (Jim Hiller) for Detroit was scared to coach the stars, and so they didn’t play right. Then at 21m20s he talks about how at the 2010 Olympics, Crosby and Toews both started started a game by taking over-long shifts, and he immediately jerked their leashes and told them never again. When you pair this with what McD said to Rishaug about never having a tough coach in Edmonton, maybe Babs is the guy they need.
Yeah and a big theme is how you need your best players to have good habits and do everything right in order to get everyone else to do it. And how he is hard on the big guys and the results will funnel down to the team. It’s easy after watching to see how he appealed McDavid, Drai and co. He wasnt BSing or selling trying to get the job, he believes this stuff passionately.
My ideal offseason would be.
Nurse for Kreider(No rentention)
Our next first, Ike Howard+ for Kirill Marchenko
Sign UFA Jamie Oleksiak
Jarry(we retain half $) and a 2nd for Dipietro
Kreider McD Hyman
Savoie Drai Marchenko
Podz Nuge Frederic
Samanski Dickinson Dach
Janmark Lazar Hutson
Ekholm Bouch
Walman Murphy
Oleksiak Emberson
Stastney
Ingram
DiPietro
*Caveat* I’d personally be ok with running it back with Jarry and Ingram…goalies are voodoo, I oddly feel confident that Jarry can rebound and Ingram can be a bit better with more structure and better team play in front of them.
EUSTAQUI-GOAL!’ 🇨🇦⚽️
Dramatic finish. They were a markedly better squad with Davies on the pitch. Hopefully he’s fit enough to play more in the next round.
Huge win!
Impressive considering all the injuries
So awesome!
Eustaquio made no mistaquio.
Not a big fan of this draft personally, it will be interesting to watch our second and the two D that went right after him – Vanecek and Bilecki to Dallas and Toronto who were liked by Curlock and blue bullet Brad. They look good analytically and the second is historically a good spot to find top 4 D.
Can they teach Rudolfs offense?
i do like the Swede – Hes very young and his offense is in the range of others around that pick and earlier for the Swedish junior league.
And I like the Windsor forward for where he was taken.
update: i like it more after reading SwedishPoster’s post pointing out that the OHL guys are OHL rookies. I do like that strategy, it makes sense that guys take a while to adjust to a league and seems like a good spot to find value. Just think there were good D still there in the second.
Malcolm Gästrin is an intriguing guy, as mentioned late birthday, still has some growing to do physically, his dad and brother are both around 6’2 and quite stocky so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malcolm add an inch or two and some solid mass.
Decent offensive skill and his production for an August birthday is pretty good, could easily see a major uptick next year if he stays in juniors, he’s also very much a three zone player so not a guy who cheats for offense in any sense.
He’s also in a good spot as far his development path, Modo will play in Allsvenskan next season, if Malcolm can add some strength there’s a pretty good chance he plays for the men’s team and Allsvenskan is a great development league for young players(just look at the Djurgården crew, Frondell, Björk, Eklund, this season). If he doesn’t take a regular spot with the men’s he still hasn’t grown out of the U20 league as he could still add layers to his offensive game and isn’t physically at a level where he just bullies his peers on pure athleticism.
By no means a sure thing but I thinks it’s a very good bet in the third round.
Don’t know anything about the other guys picked but one thing that interests me from a statistical pov is that all of Harvey, Robinson and Cameron came from lesser leagues to play in the OHL/USHL for the first (full) time this season.
When I did my big write up at the time of the 2015 draft where I looked at all the top 4 D, top 6 F, #3C and NHL goalies at the time to see what their D -1 and draft year production looked like, don’t know if anyone still remembers it, I found that almost all forwards who played in the top junior leagues that made it (CHL, USHL, Euro top juniors) scored at least at ppg pace, D at least 0,40(also with D the guys who’s offensive production translated to the NHL had high goal scoring numbers).
The exceptions were few but the ones who didn’t meet the criteria and still made the show almost always either had had injury issues in their draft year or, and this is the point wrt this years draft class, they came from lower leagues and played their first year in major junior during their draft year.
Even Gästrin ticks this box as he spent the vast majority of his D -1 with the U18 team.
So maybe Pracey reads my old stuff 😉
I was hoping for you to chime in on Gastrin, looking forward to following him for sure next season hopefully in the Allsvenskan. Thank you as always!
I remembered that last concept you mentioned but didnt know I read it from you. Thanks. Lewandowski met that criteria last year too.
another reason I liked Vanecek at that 58 spot. Big Czech D with 0.6 points per game in his first year in the WHL after coming over from Europe.
Tommy Lafrenière was also a WHL rookie in his draft year
Pracey might not have but I bet you Parkatti did if you’re talking the 2015 draft
So, Pagnotta is saying that Anaheim is potentially in on Nurse with no retention, combined with Stauffers comments about the Oilers getting a $7m dollar forward back.
After taking a peek, my deductive reasoning tells me that could be pointing towards a Nurse for Kreider(6.5AAV for one more season) swap.
Thoughts?
Is Kreider good 5 on 5? I know he is good in PP but I don’t think he’ll get too much PP time unless Babcock decides to have the 2nd unit that spends more than 10 seconds 5 on 4. Also, he used to be a burner – is he still fast? Haven’t followed him in ANA.
Granlund is coming back, isn’t he………
Hard pass!!!
But I would take Terry😉
I was thinking Vatrano would be coming back in a swap with Anaheim. Kreider has trade protection, Vatrano has none. He was a pretty reliable middle 6 offensive producer until a shoulder injury last season. He’s quick and has got a good shot and could ride shotgun with McDavid or Draisaitl.
I’d also want one of their three second rounders, and another young player that has been passed by their top prospects, like Colangelo.
Looking at his stats on Edge, his skating hasn’t fallen off and he’s still taking a lot of HD shots. Would be a reasonable bet for a year without the cliff seemingly approaching despite currently being aged 35.
Probably a strong bet for a year, always liked his style and could see it as a fit in the top 6.
Kreider would be a good add, but at his age and contact length you need more than that. Nurse is good enough for a Team Canada, and lots of D are hitting 7 digits. He’s not chopped liver
Not chopped liver, never said he was. I’m not one of the folks who’re giving Nurse the Horcoff special; I appreciate what he does and acknowledge his flaws. I blame the contract on both Petey and Old Dutch.
The key element here is getting a good player on a test run, see if he wants to sign a reasonable contract after or not. Being able to recoup a ton of cap space clean, ahead of a monster free agent class. Or have the cap to make a trade. WSH picked up Tuch for peanuts because they had the cap available. Same with VGK and Marner.
And to be clear, it’s not the specific path I’m endorsing as the only viable move. If available trades don’t make the team better, hold on to Nurse until something does. He might thrive under Babcock and Smith. Who knows what that does to his value (either with the team or to others).
Mmmm Kreider maybe, Granlund no chance.
Clearing the whole salary for future considerations would be the dream.
Kreider has 1 year left, Terry’s contractt ends when Nurse’s ends. Terry will also be out for about half the season after hip surgery.
I like Terry, and this would makes sense, but he would really have an impact until the playoff (maybe) or the following season.
The Ducks have three 2nd rounders in 2027. I’d expect one of them in this deal.
In looking at this more closely, I did not realize that Terry is probably the least physical player in the NHL. He is an elite puck thief, though. As well he is slightly below average in speed, but he keeps his feet moving and has elite edgework.
However, next season could be a wasted year, if it takes him a long time to recover from surgery.
If Verbeek is motivated (and I think he is), all he has to do it throw in one of those 2nd’s. I expect that Nurse ends up in Anaheim.
Mike Grier’s gambit that saw him turn Eklund into Verhoeff was brilliant.
It would be akin to the Oilers turning Sam Gagner into Jacob Trouba in 2012, trading from an area of surplus to address a great need with a higher-floor / higher-ceiling player.
The Sharks are still 2-3 years away, but Rosy has built a foundation that’s nearly unprecedented in its depth, breadth, and overall quality.
It’s like he examined ChiaPet’s failures and learned what not to do. Ignore the fanbase’s and ownership’s impatience and methodically build a team that is ready to dominate once the current heavyweights age out.
I dream of this for the Oilers. It’s never too late to build it right (damn the fans’ and owners’ impatience).
The San Jose fan base is probably a lot more patient and not nearly so loud and demanding.
Good management breeds greater patience. In the chicken vs the egg of bad managerial decisions and fan impatience, I’m not going to blame the fan base.
I imagine San Jose fans would also grow impatient if Grier did what Chia did to similar results.
Actually the reverse is true.
With the demise of the Thornton Sharks attendance dropped dramatically.
Once Celebrini came on board, they now sell out every game.
If Canadian fans fired with their wallets there would be much more incentive to get things right.
Oiler fans spend. They have been a good team.The owner still fires people left, right and center
That’s BS … a quick search on the interwebs reveals that the Sharks were only at 82% capacity on average last season.
San Jose and most US fans for that matter are the definition of “fair-weather fans”.
Fun fact: Harvey and Robinson were Windsor teammates of Carson Woodall, who was at Oilers training camp last September.
Funner fact: Another attendee at last year’s camp was Parker Von Richter, who was drafted yesterday as a double overager by Pittsburgh, 111th overall.
Pracey lives 45 minutes from Windsor so it checks out
I read Lowetide blog every morning. I rarely disagree with that wise soul. But I do in regards to late picks. There is almost no chance of hitting a home run on a scoring star. But you can accumulate cost-controlled assets if they are developed properly. And this is key to a Cup contender! You need modern day Samanski and Desharnais types filling out the bottom end. Delving back to the 90’s, I remember them drafting or finding guys for cheap like Kirk Maltby, Rem Murray, David Oliver, Greg de Vries, Dan McGillis, Sean Brown, Fred Brathwaite on the road back to respectability. Occasionally they really hit on a Shawn Horcoff or Tom Poti. But your primary objective is to use late picks to fill the back end of your roster with ‘safer bets’. Bowman was forced to expend cap space and high picks on Dickinson (who were sorely needed and filled gaping holes in the roster) because of the Oilers’ poor draft record. And when a young guy rises up and asks for too much, trade him and rinse repeat with more cost-effective young men who rise up the ranks. There is no doubt that Tyler Wright was a disaster who cost us Cups (I remember screaming at the TV when Oilers traded down from the Wallstedt pick as loud as when they traded down from Parise in ‘03 I believe- it’s sad when a fan is smarter than the “experts”). I don’t think Pracey is bad. I heard his reasoning on his interview and he seems to be of the same opinion as me. After the second round, it’s a crapshoot. So roll the dice on a guy that has something you like – size, speed, sense- and maybe you’ll get a Michael Kesselring, Matt Benning, or Ethan Bear type the team can use, even for a short time. Tommy Lafreniere, Connor Clattenburg, William Nicholl, and Maxim Berezkin (dang it) are more recent examples.
I still remember Pierre McGuire yelling about Parise!
For me, it was the 2007 draft where I realized that it didn’t make sense to judge a draft early. I wanted the big fast Czech winger Voracek instead of Gagner (we needed a winger with Smyth gone) but Gagner was also ok although the worry was his skating and loading up on PP points. I yelled at the TV when they took Alex Plante at 15 instead of Alexei Cherapanov or Angelo Esposito and yelled again when they traded 30 and 36 for 21 just after Esposito was drafted to take future Cornell star Riley Nash while everyone was yelling for Backlund and saying Nash would never play.
The start of that season Gagner was fire, made the time, and his octotuple-deke was the talk of the NHL. I thought I was wrong but Gagner’s 49 points that season was the second-best of his career. Voracek had 8 seasons of 50+ points and was far better than Gagner.
Plante played 10 games while Esposito played none and Cherapanov refused to come over before tragically dying of a heart attack at 19 on the bench during a KHL game.
Riley Nash did turn out and played 628 games but refused to be an Oiler. He was traded for the pick that became Martin Marincin (but should have been Tyler Toffoli). Pacioretty and Backlund had better careers than Nash but no player selected between 30 and 42 played 200 games that year (PK Subban, TJ Galiardi, Nick Spaling, & Wayne Simmonds were the only 4 second round picks to play 200+ that year).
Trading up to pick Nash was better than not doing so but oh, so close to a home run had they picked someone else. Had they picked Nick Ross and Joel Gistedt, total disaster.
Sometimes we’re right, often we’re wrong. Pick guys that can skate & make and take a pass, then hope for the best.
Puljujarvi, MPS and Schremp where winners on draft day, Dubnyk and Cogliano were reaches. There are no winners for 2026 yet.
Yes that 2007 draft still gives me chills. So many mistakes. I think the Oilers were trying to trade up to get Kyle Turris at #2 as well. What a gong show. Alex Plante was just another wasted pick like David Musil, Mitch Moroz, Tyler Benson over that DOD. Huge opportunity lost. I had my rose coloured goggles on that draft day as I was sure Linus Omark was the steal of the draft after reading Lowetide’s writeup, lol.
What are the chances that Gastrin gets a runway in the Allsvenskan this season. He played 4 games last year but I presume he’s slated for at least one more year of junior?
Haha, the chances of Gastrin getting a solid runway in Allsvenskan this season? Pretty high I’d say — the kid’s got a real appetite for it after putting up strong numbers with MoDo last year. He’s only 19, so yeah, another year developing in the Allsvenskan (or maybe even pushing for SHL minutes) makes total sense before he’s ready for North America. With that two-way game and production, he’s got the intestinal fortitude for the grind!
I suspect just a typo there, but Gastrin is actually only 17 and one of the youngest players from this draft.
Oops yeah. I’m mostly just making gastrin jokes.
Takes guts to admit a mistake.
The thing is he’s not 19 – he doesn’t even turn 18 until August.
I mistook him for his brother Milton.
He’ll probably get half a season or so. It’s rare to get 4 games then nothing but it’s also rare to play just 4 and then the whole season up. He could get an SHL game or 3 as well.
He was one of the youngest players in the draft. Just over a month away from not being eligible to be drafted this year. Sweden had a monster draft class this year.
The Blues obtained his brother in the Kyrou trade, and are really high on him.
On Berzkalns, giants that can skate – sometimes these guys “grow in to their bodies” and their hand follow suit.
Of course, sometimes they do turn out to be coke machines – a bet.
Sometimes a big strong C that is hard to play against is the the value in itself. J Stahl’s best season was 50 points. He got 20 goals or more 6 times in a long career. Took him a few seasons to figure out faceoffs. He was really hard to stop these playoffs because he’s such a beast
Staal was drafted 2OV though, the traits you’re describing can be found much later in the draft or acquired for only money.
3OV in the same draft? Jonathan Toews. Still the board were none other than Niklas Backstrom and Claude Giroux (among others).
Could you imagine the early 2000s Penguins with Giroux or Backstrom or Toews instead of Staal? Drafting for talent at the top end of the draft instead of defensive acumen is always the better play.
He can skate and likes to run guys over. That’s a good chance at a career but he may never make a million in a season.
Leave min is $1MM in 2029/30…..
I think one thing Pracey does in the mid-later rounds is try to find players that are undervalued due to circumstance – for example, a player with upside that is on a very deep team and hasn’t got the opportunities due to being buried.
Not sure if that came in to play much this draft but I still trust Pracey based off last year’s results on every draftee tending up and beyond their draft slot a year later.
In listening to the Pracey interview it seems like NHLe has gone the way of Corsi, replaced by tracking and microstats. Pracey seems quite certain that the offence with Berzkalns is “in there”, whatever that means. Although drafted for size, they see something in his tracking and microstats that supports future point production and his selection.
Any inkling on what comprises tracking and microstats?
Know of any sites/articles in the public domain that explain what they are, how they’re used?
USHL and OJHL are partnered with Sportlogiq.
https://www.sportlogiq.com/2025/07/08/sportlogiq-ojhl-league-wide-agreement/
https://www.sportlogiq.com/2020/12/15/elementor-2406/
Okay so nothing public. Understandable but it’s a pity, nonetheless.
Brek Liske was sitting right there, Oilers trade out and Philly takes him 53.
Just won the WHL championship, 17pts in 18 games. Moved up the draft board during the entire second half of the WHL season.
200ft defender, over 6ft, probably ends up in the Bouchard size class, right handed.
Higher ceiling imo then anyone the Oilers drafted, what a fail imo.
Huge Flyers fan, could of drafted and added to a Nurse trade and brought back an improved return.
Blarg.
That does seem like a miss. Perhaps they thought with RD locked up for a while they needed a C more
The axiom that RHD are the rarest of commodity is less true than when it ChiaPet was trading Hall for Larsson. There are lots of good RHD now, and plenty more coming.
Right now, legit Centremen that can play in the heart of your lineup 5v5 and hold their own against the other team’s best are more scarce.
Forwards also progress faster than D do in their development. Getting a huge centre who has that hard to play agains gene is good work.
His ceiling is bottom 6 center if everything goes right, the Oilers have McDavid who by most accounts is resigning, Draisaitl who’s just walking into a long deal, a 3C in Dickinson for 5 years, and Samanski for at least 3 more most likely.
This giant that needs everything to go right will be 5 years away most likely.
Samanski was brought in without needing any draft picks.
You can find centers everywhere.
Passing on a possible 2nd pairing right handed defender for a at best bottom 6 center in 5 years is awful.
There aren’t many draft rankings that had Liske higher than Berkalns.
Maybe you watched a lot of Everett, but I don’t really see why he is the one that got away.
Center is locked up for awhile, McDavid, Draisaitl, Dickinson with a fresh 5 years, Samanski with 2 more rfa seasons after this one.
This kid wont be contributing to the Oilers for 5 years if ever.
Lets be honest here, we have zero idea is either player will ever play an NHL game. Brett Liske may turn out better, he may not but he is certainly nothing near special on draft day and one of 50 players in his tier.
Having right handed D prospects with upside is far more valuable then drafting coke machines.
With Philly wanting and taking Liske, he could of also been valuable piece in a Nurse trade if the Oilers wanted to flex some big brain thinking.
I’ll cheer for Rudolph and still think the Oilers could of done better.
I don’t see the delta to call one a “coke machine” and the other this “prospect with upside”. Pracey seems highly up to speed on the coke-machine’s game and where they think there is hidden value and where they can help the kid develop.
Projecting 18 years olds is tough. It does sound like Pracey’s strategy is use advanced stats married to deep scouting to unearth hidden gems. Seems like a better strategy than “seen him good”, or “he was great for the Oil Kings”.
LT, I was taught awhile ago on this site that during the draft you should take the best player available, not draft on the basis of need.
What concerns me is they seemed to have their mind made up on who they were going to take in the 2nd round irrespective of who was available, rather than taking the highest player on their list. That is where math helps. If you think that moving down a few and picking up another later pick has higher collective value, then great. If you’re doing it because you still think you can get the one player you wanted without considering the value on what you’re passing up, that’s where I have a problem. It becomes more pronounced when you’re missing out on a couple rounds in between, where pickings are even slimmer.
How do you know that Rudolfs wasn’t the highest player on their list?
My big takeaway after the draft:
It is much easier to GM a rebuilding team like the Sharks than a contender like Colorado or Edmonton.
When you are rebuilding, the task is straightforward: accumulate talent. Don’t have to worry too much about the cap or free agency or even on-ice success.
GM a contending team and you have to balance everything: cap, NHL talent, developing some cheap young talent, ageing curves.
Grier has done a great job developing the Sharks. I am curious to see his approach once the Sharks are contenders.
I am also hard on Stan Bowman, but, in fairness, he has only had the hardest job as GM: extending a competitive window.
Good points. And while he has caused himself some problems to this point, he also inherited a tough situation. Little cap, the offer sheet scenario, NMC’s, no depth in the org, and a roster that still needed work
He could have kept DH, but as he had just come in I don’t think it’s clear that the decision had not already been made. Summer of Jeff had brought in UFA’s, SB would have had to move one of them to keep DH, iirc from looking at the cap implications then. He wasn’t going to do that
Well, as you’re wont to say so often, NMCs aren’t a problem for competent GMs.
Until they are.
What annoys me most about Bowman the Younger’s tenure so far is the NMCs handed out to non-core players. Term, fine, if it actually reduces the AAV. But trade protection to bit players? No. Move on, find someone else.
Which really shines a light on just how bad ChiaPet was; unlike Grier, he tried to turn North as soon as he picked McDavid and screwed the whole rebuild up right from the start.
How do we know that this was not a dictact from the owner himself? With an owner who makes so many decisions on the operational side of the business, I think that ChiaPet would have been told to make some aggressive trades to be able to win the cup in 2016 itself. Maybe Grier does not have that demand.
Undoubtedly that was part of it. Plus the scouts at the time had a real hardon for Reinhart and were largely responsible for undermining ChiaPet the moment he started, based on the commentary from that time. Stu McGregor was fired shortly afterwards I believe.
That said, I would bet dollars to donuts that the Sharks owner has wanted to accelerate their rebuild from the moment that Celebrini was drafted, and Rosie has had to disabuse him of fanciful ideas of contending for a Cup right now.
The ‘Magnificent Bastard’ was fired shortly before the draft, and it was Bob Green whispering sweet nothings about Reinhart into ChiaPete’s ear.
Right – what ever happened to Bob Green?
If the Oilers’ website is to be believed:
Bob GreenChief Amateur Scout
Thing is, the blurb under his name and title still reference working for Tyler Wright. So who knows.
It is not easy to do a complete rebuild. Look at Chicago. The Oilers 15 years ago. Seattle. Columbus. Buffalo.
Mike Grier is doing a masterful job.
We will get to see how Vancouver and Calgary do.
A competent GM can deal with any hand they are dealt.
I did not say a rebuild was easy.
I said it is easier to GM a rebuilding team because there are less relevant variables and less pressure.
Grier is doing a great job so far, but, the hard part is coming. Winning and maintaining success requires more balancing.
I find it tough to follow the draft eligible prospects without the traditional posts with a blurb offering the player’s name, position, profile, and NHLE.
Given how much work such a task represents, and how one’s life changes over time, it’s certainly not expected (and was vastly appreciated while it lasted).
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
We’re just over 48 hours from first #NHL buyout window closing. Not expecting a buyout for #Canes Jesperi Kotkaniemi, despite last shot at 1/3rd buyout.
Kotkaniemi was a healthy scratch for every playoff game; Carolina is willing to play the long game with a rapidly rising cap.
This reads almost exactly like Tyler Wright. Primary preference for athletes, willing to overlook boxcars.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
I don’t see it like that. He said what they are trying to do. Sense, skill, compete. I think they also look for guys that can skate, which I like. They are looking for guys that were blocked somewhat, and have room to develop
You aren’t likely to find Kucherov, he’s an outlier. Picking kids with tools and a developed all round game, is more likely to produce a helpful NHL player than taking flyers on higher skill with issues in their game. I can’t recall one like the latter that even made the NHL for the Oilers in Connor’s era
Thanks for the synopsis; I’ll watch the video when the kids are in bed.
I wonder how often drafting for a 3C works compared to drafting for a 1/2 C and have that player’s ceiling end up being 3C?
We would trade him before ever finding out.
Not drafting Joel Eriksson Ek was a fatal mistake. Would have been the perfect 3C who can move up in a pinch.
Was there a 1/2 C to draft where they had selections? They probably would have taken that player if he matched their criteria
2026 Draft recap from Rick Pracey:
https://youtu.be/zIOQMxMTPEo?si=eyx6rKPDS3-v5jzV
Clear from this interview that they are using player tracking a lot for analytics.
At the surface level, definitely looks like an underwhelming draft.
More encouraging however was Pracey’s post draft interview. He talked lots about “hidden value” and it seemed like he meant a combo of what LT referred to as the “photo hasn’t quite developed yet” plus what external factors are there we know of or can introduce that will ensure an expedited development. This seems to be Kalle Larsson’s expertise as we’ve seen most players over the past couple years have tracked above their draft slot.
The biggest external factor he seemed to like was opportunity which he referenced many times through “tiered development” i.e. not getting buried on a team, constantly being a core player on the team, and graduating to the next league when you have the best chance to be a core player there. All the players are staying in their league this year (only unknown is Gastrin) where they will be top line players before moving on to College as 19/20 year olds.
TLDR; they’re all draft and follows
Pronman rates Oilers draft as a C-, tied with Dallas (and perhaps more) with the worst grade. That said, he acknowledges his ratings correlate with draft position. And the Oilers just did not have a plethora of picks nor any high picks.
We knew it was going to be a meh draft, so there you go.
Tied with Dallas with a C- – but Dallas has the great Jim Nil… how can this be?
LT, I posted a detailed response here but it got caught up in the spam filter, perhaps because I linked a YouTube video of Caden Harvey season highlights.
Long story short, the video (by HSD Prospects, worth a watch!) also showed some very dynamic plays and effortless skating by Robinson.
To summarize, I agree with the above Ryder, and am excited for the Tarkus updates on both Spitfires this season. Pracey’s praise for the rapid progress in season splits for Robinson becoming their #1 D and excelling in the playoffs was especially heartening.
It appears all four of the NAmateurs chosen yesterday will spend next season in their respective leagues before heading to NCAA in ’27-’28. As flea posited yesterday, this seems like a conscious decision by the Oilers brass. At the very least, it affords extra runway for development.
Curious to see whether Gästrin gets picked in the CHL Import Draft on Tuesday. Even if he does get chosen, he might not necessarily report.
Berzkalns, having been a teammate of Berry in Muskegon, will eventually be a teammate of Cameron at BC.
And then there’s the twain of Spitfires in Harvey and Robinson, echoing the O’Reilly and Nicholl selections in 2024. One can see a parallel between Nicholl and Harvey, both being later selections because they were buried on deep teams.
This is not unique to the Oilers. This is league wide and the emerging norm. A plurality of first round draft picks will likely head to US colleges directly from junior leagues, but later draft pics will remain in junior leagues for further development. Colleges do not want these players until they are 19 or 20.
And a few elite draft eligibles will head to college at 17.
The ratio is actually stunning.
Of the 32 first round picks, 19 are heading to the NCAA.
10 are Europeans, many of whom will continue to play in Sweden/Finland/Russia.
Only 3 might stay in Canadian junior leagues…Czech winger Adam Novotny drafted 15th by Anaheim, Mathis Preston drafted 24th by Vancouver and Maddox Dagenais drafted 26th by Montreal.
Even 13 second round picks are headed to the NCAA.
Given the USHL is a feeder league to the NCAA and it’s 8 team expansion, the trend is likely to accelerate further.
The NCAA is a piss poor development league.
Kids are using that route like they are AI. They think it’s a shortcut but they play too little, in a league that doesn’t actually value competitiveness and it hurts them in the long run.
The coolest new thing is rarely the best and in a few years, especially with the quick route to the AHL developing, you’ll see kids stay north.
Re: Gastrin, if not looking like he will be full time with the Modo senior team in the Allsvenskan next season, would love to see him for a year in the CHL.
The Oil Kings or Brantford Bulldogs would be good fits naturally haha.
Or, dare I say…Windsor? At the moment, it looks like only one of their three Euro slots is spoken for this fall.
S’toon with Lewandowski would work too since a Euro slot just opened there.
Reading the stats here on the first and second round, I wonder if it’s just more of the new development path for players. If 4/5 were staying in the CHL we wouldn’t bat an eye. Maybe just coincidence, odds are high that NHL prospects right now end up in the NCAA.
Definitely draft and follow. I prefer how they draft now than in a long time. Decent size, apparently everyone has boots, even got a RC. Nobody has an obvious big obstacle to overcome, other than offense is shy. Not sure you’re getting that kind of player without a first
They know what they want and those things are what make good NHL players
Their numbers being shy (and what it means is lacking in their game) is the biggest thing to overcome.
PPG drafted players become depth players and healthy scratches and AHLers.
Players who can’t score rarely make it. In any capacity.
Another epic fail by Bowman and Jackson unfolding, to be confirmed by this time next week.
Zero tangible improvement from the inadequate roster that was humiliated by Anaheim.
As usual, Nurse is at the heart of that. Impossible to trade, overpaid , with expectations of quality never realized.
Even with a tangible improvement in coaching, one can only reasonably expect decline and recrimination.
Why were Bowman/Jackson not fired a month ago?
Awesome, state that Nurse is “impossible to trade” and then blame Bowman for not being able to trade Nurse.
Good grief.
1. “Epic fail… confirmed by this time next week.” There’s still a whole summer after July 1st, rushed trades and UFAs usually don’t turn out well. Impatience is weakness.
2. “Humiliated by Anahiem” Most reports post series were about how the Oilers didn’t have a single healthy Center, and that dictated the result.
3. “Nurse… impossible to trade” That’s just not true. Reports all spring have reported the opposite, with options being limited to his trade list. It’s logical other GMs would wait until after July 1st and what becomes of Werenski, before circling back to Nurse.
4. “one can only reasonably expect decline” Hah! I expect the opposite. There will decline to Nuge and Ekholm, due to age, but the younger supportive players will be a year older and wiser, ala Savoie, Podz, Samanski, Dach, Howard, Hutton. Freddy and Walman will be fully healthy. Jarry’s numbers will improve with increased familiarity of the team, and a better defensive structure from the new coaching staff.
The capacity for delusion runs very deep amongst OIler fans.
The fateful moment when Broberg and Holloway were lost for nothing was the turning point.
And the men responsible are still employed.
Explain?
This is just a copy and paste from every post you’ve ever made, you just change the names
Yawn,
Yeah, 100% agree.
I wasn’t going to say anything when it happened (lest it draw attention from engagement), but I blame the guy who quipped the other day about missing verdud for bringing the plague out of hibernation.
Hi Verdad!
Looks like the oilers will sit out free agency pending a nurse trade. Probably a good thing this year! Would love to see Ingram resigned and bigger trade involving nurse and Jarry over the summer.
For Jarry’s warts he really isn’t that expensive/longterm and a rebuilding team might see him as an admirable tank commander. Still hopin that potentially Vancouver makes a deal with Edmonton involving Demko. While he’s injury prone, he has a high end ceiling.
There is nothing in free agency. Look for teams with surplus forwards with one year left on their contracts, who would likely be waived in September.
I really am impressed with grier to be honest. Not for the obvious shiney draft reasons. Like looking at market and timelines.
EDM, LAK & VGK have held serve in division for a fair while.
In the next couple seasons one or all of them really might be on the cusp of breaking down.
Like all 3 have next to no real calvary coming through development (holy crap did LA ever fall short on their rebuild. Their prospect pool is absolute tumbleweed dead town). At least 1 of those 3 likely blowing tires in not too distant future.
ANH is in a sort of bizzarre no man’s land out of rebuild and “on the cusp” just fairly precarious as far as tje defensive end of the equation and that isn’t something ocerly easy to duct tape together forever. Like they may fall well short due to sum failing really good parts.
But still that’s 4 teams with 3 chairs when music stops.
This offseason is as expected. Too much league wide free cap not enough really worthwhile targets to spend it.
Dealimg eklund and passing on trying to start real climb from rebuild to competitive is 100% what i was thought beat call just too bad he did macimize deadline assets by sellimg off.
Seeing the contracts roll out here on cusp of free agency i think bowman actually did pretty solid on murphy/dickinson re-ups.
Like not ideal but looking at where edmonton is at and the just thin free agent players i would not be at all shocked some GM would have bid up both those guys. Especially murphy. Like the combo probably costs at least 2 million more cap if he had rolled dice at least.
If i was grier, i’d be low key planning on start full heading north after next off season. Like after next year free agency most of the too free cap momey excess will be locked up in whatever. If he can get to there before comiiting too much longer term to infills i rhink they easily will just pass right over the ducks.
Anaheim is actually in much better shape that you portray.
With a young forward core of Carlsson, Gauthier, Sennecke, Gaucher and Moore together with the enormous potential of 2025 10th overall pick Roger McQueen, they are robust upfront.
Ahead of the draft, they had zero first round picks but by trading McTavish they ended up with 2 first round and 2 second rounds picks and ended up with high scoring winger Nikita Klepov, and big Mattias Nordmark who played in the SHL as a 17 year old.
They also received another big C, 20 year old Marcus Wahlberg from Buffalo in the Zellwegger trade.
Their D is obviously in need but their left side is pretty much set with LaCombe, Mintyukov and 2024 first round pick Stian Sohlberg who had a fine season in the AHL and is likely ready to step up.
On the right side is where they need immediate help.
They do have a couple of internal solutions in Drew Helleson, Ian Moore and Tristan Luneau but could certainly use a legit #1RD.
Pat Verbeek has potentially as much as $50 million in cap space to address that need.
Perhaps someone like Dougie Hamilton or Rasmus Ristolainen might be a short term fix.
That Jarry trade still leaves me dazed and confused. Skinner, Kulak and a 2nd! For a tender who was on waivers a year prior – and had 2 more years of term left on his $5.4 million deal. Serenity now!
Maybe Sam Poulin is the key to the trade, although he is currently in need of a contract. 🙂
He was on waivers the year before but, at the time of the trade, he was .914 in 14 games and was top ten in the league in goalie metrics.
At one time Bobrovsky had the worst contract in the league, then he bounced back and won a couple of cups. At one time Fosling was on waivers, etc., etc. Ingram cleared waivers and was given away with $1MM retained and he performed above league average.
Prior waivers is often non-consequential – one has to analyze in the hear and now.
Jarry will be fine this year with a more structured team in front.
Jarry will be better because he can’t be any worse.
But man, if he could hit .914 next year, what a godsend that would be.
.914 from Jarry and the Oilers win the Pacific.
Jarry was mid to bad for five years. Why would one judge him on a sample size of 14 games.
If you consider above league average and well above .900 “mid to bad”, I guess.
What I heard about “why Jarry?” was that his style of play/numbers showed a goalie who was a better fit for the kind of defensively lax style the Oilers tend to play, compared to Skinner. He looked good until he got hurt (but ALL Oilers goalies looked good Nov 26-Dec 25).
I’m w those who argue that behind a team playing better defensively, Jarry should look better. But I would say that about Ingram, Pickard, Skinner as well.
To my eye, the biggest factor in goalie success, after basic abilities, is health+confidence. Hence the inconsistencies in most goalies’ resumes. Jarry healthy, rested, and confident may show us he’s the right goalie for this team.
ps. I believe Jarry was right to question the team in front of him early in his tenure with Oilers. Everything McD et al have said about their own poor play last season underlines how justified Jarry was in expecting more from them. There is no small irony for this goalie apologist that first Skinner, then Pickard, Jarry, and Ingram had to wear blame for the leadership’s sloppy commitment to keeping pucks north of their own blueline.
pps. SV% is an unreliable number, when comparing goalies, and especially year over year. WIN% is a more reliable number, in part because it’s a team metric. With a team committed to winning, confidence grows, journeymen goalies become heroes.
Thanks LT. Always love your harvest moon. Been reading them for nearly 2 decades (is that right?).
my observation is that the Oilers are slowly losing assets. The cupboard isn’t bare, but it’s getting close. The draft was always a way to partially refill. This year feels like a miss. Players who have potential to fill in your 4th line or 3rd pair can be found for free. Best to use the lottery tickets on higher risk and higher reward assets.
We’ll see what free agency brings, but the GM doesn’t seem to know how to get his own hands untied. And I know he’s in a tight spot, but I’ve seen other men in his position get out of tighter squeezes. I’m not sure this GM is up to the challenge (I remember those big contracts he handed out in Chicago), unless he can summon the power that helped him to make the Duncan Keith trade to Edmonton.
At the end of the day, the Oilers will have the most expensive bottom 6 forwards around, with little draft/prospect capital, and roster holes to fill. They’ve made their own bed, now we get to watch it play out.
Yes, the Oilers have been slowly losing assets for years now. And the Jackson/Bowman duo accelerated this with the loss of Broberg and Holloway. You trade a 1st for a trade deadline rental, then you sign that rental for too much money and term. Henrique, Walman, Dickinson. Rinse and repeat.
There were posters here on Friday complaining that Bowman wasn’t in on any of the trades that were announced. Why was that? It’s because he has no bullets left. How many assets do the Oilers have that have significant trade value?
This is exactly it. We watch other contending teams improve their rosters with impact trades and signings every year. Then some people give Oilers management a pass because they have no cap space, draft capital, or tradeable assets to get in on these deals for top players. Well ask yourself, why that is? The answer is because the same GM pissed away all of these things to overpay for mid range, aging players. It is all connected
Be careful what you wish for. Look at Nashville a couple of years ago, team seemingly on the cusp of reaching a higher echelon of play, several major signings in the offseason that had the league abuzz… then the whole thing crashed and burned leaving them in Cap Hell for all those new contracts…
What contending teams in the west have improved with trades and signing so far?
At this point, Vegas and Colorado have traded way good/impact players (in Vegas’ case, a top impact forward) for futures due to cap reasons – they’ve made themselves worse. ANA has also traded out good players – they have cap space, great they can overpay in a highly mediocre free agent season.
Vegas and Colorado have hurt their current roster do move out cap and Bowman is trying to no do the same with Nurse.
Read my post. I didn’t specify conference or this year. Obviously free agency hasn’t even opened yet. Geez 🙄
The Oilers vaunted analytics department was at the kids table again.
“unless he can summon the power that helped him to make the Duncan Keith trade to Edmonton”
Alas, I fear that was the dread puissance of Ken Holland’s incompetence that brought Keith to Edmonton and prompted the Nurse contract once Seth Jones got the bank thrown at him. Being generous, does Bowman the Lesser get some credit for agreeing to the trade? 10% Is that fair?
If we’re talking Holloway/Broberg, personally i think the offer sheet was on Holland but Bowman should have matched on Holloway.
That’s not unreasonable on the offer sheets, but can we agree to point fingers at Jackson, whose July 1st activity (viz., Skinner, Arvdisson) painted Bowman into a corner?
I think it did. As I commented elsewhere, I recall that SB would have had to move one of JJ’s UFA’s to make the cap work. Very unlikely
He didn’t have to, at least nit right away.
They knew Kane was going to be out for months and months. There was a chance he was coming back during the regular season at some point, and they could need to clear room, but it was months away, if ever. He could have match.
Bowman didn’t know what he had in Holloway. I wonder what Jackson, Coach KK, Coffey the analytics group told him about Holloway leading to the decision to not match.
I’m pretty sure he could’ve found enough info on the Google machine to make a better decision. Heck, there was more than enough info on this website to direct Bowman to keep Holloway. He had enough time on the job and prior to the hire to do the research. When you’re getting interviewed for these roles you’re already preparing as if you’re getting the job. Bowman had weeks to make an informed decision. If his information was bad, then that’s on him for not asking more questions and doing more digging.
The Kane situation painted the team into a corner with respect to cap space.
The bet on Podkolzin has done well, at least on a pts/AAV basis.
At that point DH was still somewhat of an unknown. We could all see the potential, but it wasn’t set yet. He also has injury problems. Bowman said it was about the math. The issue wasn’t as much the offer sheet cap hit, it was the following contract that could be a problem, with uncertainty around Drai who was signed later in ’24, and Connor and Bouch coming up the next year
Sucks but seems prudent, they wanted DH to take what he should have been getting at that point
There is this think GM’s do called trading. Anaheim signed McTavish. When they needed cap space to sign better players, they traded McTavish.
Holland was no longer employed when the entry level contracts expired. No agent worth their 15% would advise a client to sign a low ball offer before the expiration of the ELC for players who have been blocked. It was ALL on Jackson and Bowman.
Nevermind Holland’s patented playbook, aka over ripening of prospects, or signing these players you acknowledge were blocking said prospects.
Honestly, I miss when you posted with degrees of nuance. This whole offer sheet situation turned you jaded, and rendered you binary in your opinions. I want the vintage godot back, damnit.
It was Holland that blocked Broberg. After Holland drafted Broberg, he signed Nurse for 8 years, he traded for Kulak and re-signed him of four years and he traded for Ekholkm, with, I believe, 4 seasons of term left. He also recalled Deharnais to take more of Broberg’s ice time. Holland also was the one the failed to sign him (even after being instructed to do so by his boss).
That’s an interesting tidbit: a hint that there was an Oilers mgt who resisted the boss’s instruction.
Other examples?
Why might Holland have felt confident in doing so? And why, when others didn’t?
Holland knew he wasn’t coming back at that time.
Thanks. How did he know this? I don’t know the history or the lore/opinions.
because Jackson was hired and it was simply generally accepted that they were moving on from Holland after his 5 years contract – I can’t say for sure but I presume there were internal conversations.
Thank you.