Deja Vu All Over Again

by Lowetide

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, like Shawn Horcoff before him, occupies an important spot in the Oilers organization. Late 20’s, contract extension under discussion, and the things Nuge provides are not easily replaced. How many things does Nuge do today that Shawn Horcoff did at the same age?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

2007-08 EDMONTON OILERS FORWARDS

Horcoff was surrounded by talented wingers, but he was the mainstay on the top line. Big minutes in all disciplines (2:46 PK), he (along with Jarret Stoll) was a constant in the middle and late 00’s in Edmonton. He was the only forward to play over 20 minutes a night in 2007-08.

He was productive, as you can see. His linemates were Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky and the trio played the toughs. Horcoff was the vital center. Stoll was getting caved everywhere but the faceoff dot, and his linemates were Penner, Hemsky, Gagner and Raffi Torres. That’s not a checking outfit folks.

Horcoff played in Edmonton through the 2012-13 season, age 33.

I’ve always felt that should be Nuge’s role too, as the one thing Edmonton hasn’t been able to do is keep their best players well into their 30’s. Fans were most unkind to Horcoff in the final years here, but it would have been folly to entrust the tough center minutes to Sam Gagner. He wasn’t going to cover that bet.

The man who took over from Horcoff as the tough minutes center, as the complete forward across all disciplines, was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

2020-21 EDMONTON OILERS FORWARDS

Nuge has a better PP number than Horcoff and also plays significant minutes on the PK(1:59) but at this point is so far removed from Horcoff’s job (No. 1 center) he’ll never get back there.

Nuge’s utility on the skill lines give him much of his value in my opinion. He can PK, and work the PP, and play center or wing and doesn’t bitch. The thing about signing him though is that the bloom is off the rose offensively. This is predictable, we know that the late 20’s and 30’s brings on some offensive erosion. Let’s compare Horcoff to Nuge through age 27 and then run Horcoff’s numbers afterward. Horcoff’s numbers first, then Nuge. These are even-strength points-per-60:

  • Age 18: (–), 1.93
  • Age 19: (–), 1.25
  • Age 20: (–), 1.67
  • Age 21: 2.25, 1.99
  • Age 22: 1.90, 1.62
  • Age 23: 1.99, 1.66
  • Age 24: 1.54, 2.40
  • Age 25: (–), 1.93
  • Age 26: 2.44, 2.30
  • Age 27: 1.52, 1.31
  • Age 28: 2.52
  • Age 29: 1.67
  • Age 30: 1.30
  • Age 31: 1.42
  • Age 32: 1.11
  • Age 33: 1.31

You can see injuries and lockouts over the years, Nuge’s bell curve began much earlier and he peaks 24-26. I think Nuge is a better player than Horcoff was, and he’ll have a great player on his line (Horcoff didn’t always have Hemsky and McDavid-Draisaitl is a cheat code). How much do you want to pay for that kind of future even strength offense? It’s not an easy answer, ladies.

HAPPY EASTER

I wanted to take a moment and talk about the year past and the one ahead. It has been so difficult for everyone, we need to acknowledge the life-altering 12 months just past, and the impact it had on us. We’ll talk about “the Covid” like my Dad talked about “the war” or “the depression” and it has changed us. I can feel it, see it in my restless children.

Just like when they were little, and about to run into traffic (seemed to be a family hobby for a time), there’s been some “holding back” in this house. For all of us. We are healthy, we are fine, we have had some scares and we are going to have restaurant meals often when this is over.

There is a new strain, actually more than one, that makes things even more dangerous and this time young people are included in the worry. Now is the time to redouble your efforts, do all the things that make you safe, and stay the course. I’m on a list for the shot, hope to get the call any day now. Mrs. Lowetide too. We’ll get through this together, and then we’ll talk about it forever. Things have changed. Please, please be careful, even if you think I’m crazy, I’ll plead guilty if you wear a mask, socially distance and follow the rules. I don’t want to say goodbye to you.

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defmn

Does Treliving survive to the end of the season?

Does he still have authority from ownership to make trades?

Foege Foegele Torpe

Yes, so long as Darryl signs off

Reja

Flames fans are so mediocre they only need to hear from Cassie and Hrudey that they have the right mix and they’ll make a real run next year.

McNuge93

It looks like thw Flames will not catch up to the Canucks before the Canucks return to play.

OriginalPouzar

Rantanen is on another tier from Landeskog, and four years younger.

This isn’t disrespecting Landeskog but Rantanen is high high end.

Redbird62

Rantanen’s on ice numbers without MacKinnon are 3rd line level. Like 1.8 team goals for per 60 and a 45% goal share for the last 4 seasons. Just this year slightly above 2.0 gf per 60 but still a 45% goal share. He’s tied to Mackinnon’s hip and obviously a good fit with him, and maybe it’ll be a long time before he ever has to do it on his own, but he won the lotto getting to play with Nathan.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Harpers Hair

 Reply to  Harpers Hair
 April 4, 2021 8:10 pm

So you have no idea….typical.
****
Easily you’re most insightful contribution thus far

Harpers Hair

Now you have to winnow down that list to the teams who have the cap space to take on the contract.

The list will be a short one.

Last edited 6 months ago by Harpers Hair
Brantford Boy

Tkachuk injured… happy Easter everyone!

Reja

Sutter and the Flames are tanking.

OriginalPouzar

Tkachuk came back minutes later – material contribution to a Leaf goal…..

Side

I am enjoying the mental gymnastics of Flames fans who bash the Oilers for tanking and then… root for their team to tank.

Last edited 6 months ago by Side
leadfarmer

Dallas Seguin
Chi Toews
Buf Eichel
VCR Pettersson

a lot of the other teams are building and while not better yet
Anaheim Zegras
NJD. Hughes

Nashville obviously can’t sign another high price center
vegas capped out

then teams closer to tearing it down
Calgary
Columbus, Jones is probably gone in a year

Dach will be a ppg player in his prime

Foege Foegele Torpe

Regardless of the corrections, your post still contains very important info. Especially for those who are expecting/hoping RNH will sign his name to a contract for less than a $6M AAV

OriginalPouzar

While hurt, Buffalo has Eichel.

Vancouver has Elias P. (although he may end up being a winger) and, straight up given ages, etc., I would probably take Horvat.

Hintz may be popping here as well.

OriginalPouzar

With the open taxi squad spot, I wonder if Holland is waiting for some league guidance on the Oilers/Canucks games scheduled for the 12th and 14th. If those games are canceled then, after Friday’s games, the Oilers don’t play for 7 days.

A player called up today would come out of quarantine with almost a full week before a game.

At the same time, the Condors play Tuesday and then the weekend so, waiting for the call-up would only get that player one more game.

Presumably, it would be best to call the player up now and have a full 5 days of skates (or as many as the team has) before the next game.

Maybe a call-up isn’t imminent.

Foege Foegele Torpe

That 7 day break will sure come in handy when the Oilers trade for Palmieri like HH is suggesting

Harpers Hair

It is a possibility but the Oilers don’t have second or third round picks….what would you suggest?

I doubt a 2022 pick would be of much interest to New Jersey.

pts2pndr

We would expect nothing less coming from you,, you are becoming very predictable.

Harpers Hair

So you have no idea….typical.

Foege Foegele Torpe

/thread

Foege Foegele Torpe

You’re probably correct, but depending on if the Oilers have the A1 prospect that NJ wants.
Either way, I think the chances ED & NJ consumate a trade for Palmieri is 0.05%

OriginalPouzar

I still don’t think I am in a place where I can hope that the flames win…..

With that said, they are 7th last in the NHL in points (tied with Vancouver) and 7th last in points percentage…… at some point, they’ll need to go on a heater to move up to apx 12-15th.

Tarkus

As unpalatable as it is to cheer for Calgary, a Flames win would allow the Oilers to reel in the Leaves.

Think of it as ‘strategic’ cheering for the greater good, if you will.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I understand that….. still not sure I’m at the place though.

Truth be told, finishing 2nd and playing the Jets may be the most favorable positioning.

Last edited 6 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Harpers Hair

Corey Masisak (@cmasisak22) Tweeted:
#NJDevils Kyle Palmieri’s agent confirmed he’s not playing today as protection in case of a potential trade. He said the two sides took one more swing at a contract extension over the weekend. A trade is now the likely next step.

https://twitter.com/cmasisak22/status/1378779835544170502?s=20

Harpers Hair

Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
Canucks on the NHL’s Covid-19 protocol list:

Travis Boyd; Jalen Chatfield; Thatcher Demko; Alex Edler; Adam Gaudette; Travis Hamonic; Jayce Hawryluk; Braden Holtby; Bo Horvat; Quinn Hughes; Zack MacEwen; Marc Michaelis; Tyler Motte; Tyler Myers; Antoine Roussel; Brandon Sutter

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1378818871491231751?s=20

godot10

It the other guy were still president, instead of the new guy, and was hording tens of millions of doses of the AZ vaccine (not even approved in their country) and refusing to make them available to Canada, because Pfizer and Moderna want to “profiteer” on their gene therapies, newly redefined as “vaccines”, would the news reported in Canada be different.

defmn

This is an easy ‘yes’.

Regardless of how the ‘other guy’ is or was viewed there is little doubt that the MSM completely abandoned any pretense of objectivity, credibility or integrity in order to remove him from office.

There is no ‘news’ available anymore. Just partisan perspective – from both sides of the aisle. Same in this country unfortunately.

hunter1909

Fake speculation. Wtf is this, a chance to bash the loser of the last American “election”? Your “new guy” is a patsy to usher in Kamala Harris in the continuation of degeneration USA…

But don’t listen to me. Enjoy the coming inflation, and fascism.

MrEd

You guys are in the wrong place I think.

ristojalo

A mute/block button would have been great during the last week.

CMcD4PM

Gene therapy eh? You really don’t know what you are talking about.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Why should that stop him?

godot10

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products

Human gene therapy seeks to modify or manipulate the expression of a gene OR to alter the biological properties of living cells for therapeutic use.

mRNA is not the first, but the second part certainly qualifies.

An example of a journal article title:

https://www.cell.com/molecular-therapy-family/molecular-therapy/comments/S1525-0016(16)30267-2

mRNA: Fulfilling the Promise of Gene Therapy

Nothing wrong with calling something exactly what it is instead of trying to deceive people because you think they might scare them. Tell people the truth.

https://www.asgct.org/research/news/november-2020/covid-19-moderna-nih-vaccine

https://hsci.harvard.edu/translation/what-are-drugs-4-gene-therapies

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2019.01208/full

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6491712/

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/mysterious-2-billion-biotech-revealing-secrets-behind-its-new-drugs-and-vaccines

An mRNA drug would also be easier to control than traditional gene therapy. Like mRNA, gene therapy can induce cells to make therapeutic proteins, but it typically introduces DNA that can integrate unpredictably into the genome.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/03/27/covid-19-vaccines-have-alerted-the-world-to-the-power-of-rna-therapies

Some companies market it this way:

https://mrna.creative-biolabs.com/mrna-for-gene-therapy.htm?gclid=CjwKCAjwx6WDBhBQEiwA_dP8raxFPf-Y098YN4Jzh3YzC8vcuQcvdXxUMw_IBi1DsmH1HKxfb46i9hoC3nUQAvD_BwE

godot10

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products

Human gene therapy seeks to modify or manipulate the expression of a gene OR to alter the biological properties of living cells for therapeutic use.

mRNA is not the first, but the second part certainly qualifies.

godot10

I have a longer post with about 15 links that needs to be approved.

mRNA may not be “traditional” gene therapy, but it certainly qualifies as an alternative form of gene therapy.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/mysterious-2-billion-biotech-revealing-secrets-behind-its-new-drugs-and-vaccines

An mRNA drug would also be easier to control than traditional gene therapy. Like mRNA, gene therapy can induce cells to make therapeutic proteins, but it typically introduces DNA that can integrate unpredictably into the genome.

Woodguy v2.0

Mini RNH comps thread using Cs who have at least 2min/gp PP and 1min/gp PK this year:

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1378796053093224449

DevilsLettuce

You say 5.75-6.25 for higher end winger you’d do it, with his versatility to cover 2C if coach is loading up or Gord forbid injuries.

Are you letting him walk out the door at 6.5? Higher then a winger pay, lower then the down the middle bonanza.

Brantford Boy

Thanks WoodGuy… 1.77 seems in the range of his entire Oilers tenure at 1.806… which I was asking for a couple weeks ago… so thanks LT!

Holland sees that as 1.80, Nuge sees is as 1.81

Redbird62

Do people on here believe Vegas is a well run franchise?

maudite

Sort of. They capitalized effectively on new expansion format and seem to be effective at moving on from players instead of desperately keeping past due dates.

The league did a good job ensuring setup tilted enough to not just endure years of wandering in desert put of gate. 4 years young though and nitro boost spent whack of NMC and a good dose of NTC…time will tell how they fair on level surface the next few years.

Redbird62

Right except they have Pacioretty, Stone and Karlsson signed till they’re 35, Marchessault till he is 34, and Pietrangelo till he is 38. Stone and Pietrangelo have NMC while the others have no trade clauses. A lot of good teams have key players in the early 30s. Washington and St. Louis when they won the cup, Boston and Dallas reaching the finals all have or had key players in their early 30s. I think a player like Hopkins can be very productive well into his 30s and the Oilers need guys like that and they are harder to find than fans thinks.

maudite

Something to be said for them essentially trading Schmidt and statsny in cap dump moves and still being absolutely in top tier. I’m impressed this year more than the previous ones.

godot10

Too early to tell. It is looking good, but they haven’t gone through a full cycle yet.

leadfarmer

They took between the 9th and 11th best player on each team and became a perennial contender immediately.
hard to argue as not successful.
Doesnt mean they haven’t made a few mistakes though

maudite

They leveraged cap inneficiencies handcuffing teams, a money tunnel level blizzard of poorly thought NMC contracts and incompetent internal evaluation of player values, by existing franchises, to successfully extract quality

or the 9-11th best player on every roster.

If not for flat cap Seattle likely wouldn’t have come out of gate remotely close to as strong. Now again nearly every other outfit is in as stressed out or more level (walking from RFA contracts leaves me wondering what is going to be on table again this year). If they have the right hand steering ship they might be pretty scary pretty fast as well.

Last edited 6 months ago by maudite
leadfarmer

You should recheck the Vegas Stanley cup odds before the season started

maudite

Oh I remember. But in that same time:

I was able to get ridiculous odds, and nearly cashed in hard, on Nashville winning the cup the year they lost in final – when they were clearly better than record, at midpoint in season.

Odds are not the ultimate benchmark in hockey just yet. They are getting better at it but how much of Vegas handicap was due more to historic expansion wasteland years over recognizing anything to do with anything different?

They have done a hell of a job stamping Vegas on hockey map. All I’m saying is overall level of league recycling known managers and incompetence played a role many different ways that ensured it was almost just as easy to get a lot more than simply 9-11th best roster player.

Same mindest as I find anyone making arguement last couple years regarding the implicit higher value of expansion protected picks and players in deals to get better short term wise. Along with present year “That doesn’t matter we are going to lose someone anyway” is loser talk in my mind.

We have too many defense you’d probably protect and too few forwards you’d be concerned to protect. Coupled with likely no goalie you’d be devastated if you left unprotected…some value on table right there.

Last edited 6 months ago by maudite
pts2pndr

Short term success due to circumstances. Time will tell how much was good management and how much was luck. It will be interesting to see if the Seattle franchise does as well and wether or not teams learned from their mistakes of the previous draft.

maudite

I definitely would be hoping to chart a different path than Vegas made, if I were in charge there. I wouldn’t be in such a rush to paint completely into win now corner so quickly.

OriginalPouzar

Super excited – home from the gym, groceries, food prep done – ready to sit down and get some nutrition in while reading through 99 comments on Lowetide.

I think I’m about half way through the comments, and there was finally one about the Oilers!

Go Oilers!

Material Elvis

Do you see the irony of your post?

Harpers Hair

Bartlett Hockey (@BartlettHockey) Tweeted:
Can confirm that Kyle Palmieri is being held out of Devils lineup today in anticipation of a trade in the coming days or week(s).

https://twitter.com/BartlettHockey/status/1378778023894384645?s=20

I’m guessing the Leafs.

MrEd

If he does go to the Leafs- what do you think it’s going to cost them?

Harpers Hair

A defense prospect and a pick.

MrEd

A 2nd?

Harpers Hair
godot10

Prediction: Lou is going to kick the punk Dubas in the a$$ again.

leadfarmer

swing and a miss
4.625 cap hit
1 mil deadline cap space

Harpers Hair

Read Mirtle’s piece…it’s very doable.

Harpers Hair

Bartlett Hockey
@BartlettHockey
·
26m

Replying to @BartlettHockey
Since 2015-16, only 5 Right-Wings have scored more @NHL
goals than @kylepalmieri

Harpers Hair

Replying to @BartlettHockey
Since 2015-16, only 5 Right-Wings have scored more @NHL
goals than @kylepalmieri

kgo

107 downvotes and counting for my opening post. I think that deserves an elaboration from the LT record holder in downvotes.

Nobody can argue that EVERYONE on this blog knows exactly what the public health recommendations are, we heard it 100 times yesterday from 100 different sources, and we’ll hear it 100 times again today.

It’s NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE to interact with any facet of the world today without hearing about this virus.

Lowetide can do whatever he wants on his blog, he can start putting graphs with Infection rates by province or start putting up hospitalization stats…I can’t stop him.

All I can do is make him aware that this beautiful space he has created for us is one of my last escapes from the harsh reality we find ourselves in, and I’m probably not alone in that regard.

In all honesty, Lowetide probably feels the burden of having such a large audience and is compelled by his conscience to shed light on public health recommendations…he would probably feel guilty if he didn’t.

Sorry for all the drama folks, I just want to vicariously step back onto the ice where all the world’s problems melt away.

maudite

Down votes are generous.

Not worth response. Man said his piece undoubtedly has no interest in conversation derailing fully into that arena over subject of this post.

I’m at the 15 year mark almost daily following this. He can say whatever the hell he wants about anything and maybe ill disagree if its hockey related.

One consistent light at end of tunnel while Wandering the hockey wasteland and even when he waxes poetic about pandemic – hope springs eternal.

Last edited 6 months ago by maudite
stephen sheps

One of this blog’s highlights is LT’s annual ‘reasonable expectations’ series. If your expectations of pure escapism aren’t being met, that’s on you, not on him. It’s unreasonable to project that expectation upon him.

Here’s the thing – LT’s been posting holiday notes as long as he’s had the blog. He usually uses those posts to take stock of where he and his family happen to be at that particular moment in time, pulling back the curtain a little and revealing a bit of his own life to the rest of us. Thanksgiving, Xmas and Easter tend to be those times. It’s a nice, touching and heartfelt moment of humanity from someone that most of us have never met (or will never meet) in real life to actually see the person (and the dog – I love seeing photos of Ziggy) behind the community. It’s nice. LT’s a nice, kind and welcoming person and he cares about this community. That’s all his post was about and it’s a shame you couldn’t see that.

Yeti

I don’t think you’d have had this level of negative reaction if you didn’t start your post by saying “With all due respect” and then demonstrate in your words very little sense of respect whatsoever. I don’t think you likely meant it that way, but it came over pretty crass.

Side

With all due respect to LT, I know it’s his blog, but I would appreciate it if he posted less about hockey and posted more about Ziggy.

90s fan

After reading Sides awesome comment, I have decided that saying “with all do respect” kind of braces one for the impact of being disrespected, regardless of the following message.

kgo

Good point. I have the utmost respect for LT, but I also don’t mind offending those I respect. A great thinker once said. “In order to be able to think, you have to risk being offesive”

Rex Davenport

Please just stop.

defmn

This is not a clever comment & Jordan Peterson is miles away from being a great thinker.

John Chambers

The Oilers have McDavid signed for 5 years. You need talented players and cap flexibility over those 5 years to win.

Nuge is a fine complimentary player at this stage of his career. Puts up ~23G 37A 60P over 82, kills penalties and is the coach’s most trusted forward after the big 2.

I’ve also never seen an Oilers player play their entire career here, wire to wire.

Theres a bit of emotion behind the move but I support going 7 x $5M, with a front-end loaded deal, 5 year NMC so that he’s guaranteed to play the McDavid years and his contract can be moved if needed to re-sign 97.

The likelihood is that Nuge is a 3C in 4-5 years, but that’s alright value especially after the cap his $90M.

A $5M cap gives Holland all kinds of flexibility to compete now.

Harpers Hair

Virtually all new signings have been backloaded to avoid the high escrow imposed by the flat cap and I would imagine Nuge will seek the same.

maudite

Yeah no chance you are getting average 5 mill and front loading it, in my brain either.

OriginalPouzar

It can be mid-loaded – ala Demko.

Shamus23

Nuge is not having the year that I am sure he and his agent were hoping for . He really has not been that great 5 on 5. I do feel for him when he was put in the dot with no LW that is an actual top 6. But that said he is and always has been terrible on the draw.
Is he still a 6 million dollar player ? Not this year , especially with the flat cap. I like this player as a person and he is a Jack of all trades player, but Holland should not be paying a player for his past anymore, and more for what they think he can do.( He also misses the net way too much on shots).
is he a legite #1 LW for McD? Certainly not this year, and he is more of a playmaker than shooter really.
Sure the Nuge can fill in on the top 2 Dots if injury happens.
He can pk , but would be better not taking draws.
The argument of “well if we let him walk then we will need 2 LWers”
This is true as we need one quite badly right now with Nuge.
The report out that Nuge was offered 5 is interesting. My thoughts are ( because it was said to not be flattering) they may have offered 5.5/5 Which I think would be a fair contract.
Just me but I like that Holland is offering 5 years, I do not think Nuge should get any longer and I don’t think he should get anymore than5.5. But if that was truly the offer, it Could be the starting point and maybe they go to 6.
I think the days of signing 27/28 year old players to 7-8 year contracts are over, and for the Oil especially they should be.
If Nuge doesn’t sign for what Holland is comfortable giving him, then he goes.

The Oil will have 30ish mill if he doesn’t resign . They Could look to making a trade for a LWer using D strength

They could look at the UFA market as well. We are a bit of a soft team up front and grabbing at least 1 LWer that is a bit bigger with Grit and can score would be great.

Zach Hyman should be the #1 target if the leafs dont get him under contract .Guy is tenacious and a 20-25 goal scorer, tough in front and in corners and a very good PK.. This kid will be sought after ,thus $$$$. Probably an overpay and not sure the Leafs can afford over 5 mill, which someone will give him

Nick Foligno is a very tough vet that would add to the room. Probably still get you 15, but at 33. Wouldn’t give him more than 2 years. Not sure what his camp will want either

Hoffman. He can score and should be looked at.

Thomas Tataaaaaar. Think he is on Holland’s radar for sure.

Trades

Jake Debrusk. He has really fallen and needs a change of scenery. What would it take to get him ?

System

Tyler Benson.
Holloway. LW/C. Kid has become a very good C man at Wisconsin. Good on the draw, but Could start him on the L side

Just me, but not a Taylor Hall guy in the UFA , but you never know. Holland tried to get him when he was put on the block from NJ.

Guess we see 1st what happens with Nuggee

€√¥£€^$

I have not heard anything and cannot find any info further to the cancellation of Bakersfield’ games that were cancelled this weekend. I am wondering if their game on the 6th will be played or not.

Does anyone have any up to date info?

OriginalPouzar

The official message was that the weekend games were postponed “out of an abundance of caution due to roster constraints affecting the Condors”

Jordan

If you’re not going to sign Nuge anyways… Can you flip him for Hall before the deadline? Get a chance to run a different LW and see if that moves the needle?

Maybe Nuge figures out he actually does want to sign for what the Oilers were offering after playing in Buffalo. Or maybe Hall decides he wants to be back here on Connors wing?

I see a lot of ways this makes sense for the Oil long term. Risk is short term in losing Nuges utility on special teams IMO.

Last edited 6 months ago by Jordan
Side

I think the Oilers care too much about Nuge as a person to try and send him to the hockey abyss that is the Buffalo Sabres.

defmn

Why would Buffalo flip their UFA for a different UFA?

geowal

At this point in their careers, I think Nuge has more value than Hall for the playoffs

maudite

Yeah i’d definitely opt for a more two way forward that has stellar PP abilities, can effectively kill penalties, that can also play center and has a style that will likely be significantly more durable/effective in later years of any contract.

I dont dislike hall at all. I just truly don’t see the need for another line driving winger who is primarily a pass rush player.

While it would be great to have McDavid drai
Nuge hall

That will cost what? At least 33 million over next 5 years…if you can get either hall or nuge to sign a 5 year contract?

If I’m either one of those guys I’m looking at shorter or longer.

– if I’m nuge might consider shorter term bridge over flat cap and high escrow
– if I’m hall might be looking to lock in longer contract and ensure i bank.

The tricky part is with Seattle coming in clean and success of Vegas

Id be hard pressed to not at least wait until they open their doors and can sign contracts over seriously considering any offer from the presently cap strapped market…this is why I’m not overly going to panic about nuge status. I think he’d be nuts not to see how Seattle looks and what they might offer a talented center in his prime before considering potentially lower balled offer from Holland.

I also agree Seattle is a pretty attractive option given where nuge grew up for a longer term deal (also easy flight back to YEG or yyc for the lady if she wants and Alaska air rules)

Last edited 6 months ago by maudite
DevilsLettuce

RNH has absolutely no bearing on whether a coach is going to come in and run 97 and 29 on the PP1 for as much time as possible.

Getting PP2 also has no bearing on producing 5×5, how you score on the powerplay and even strength are not one in the same. Wouldn’t Nuge then have 40ESP to go with all his powerplay success?

Do the 2 top 6 forwards you bring in with Nuge money cover the penalty kill, powerplay, left wing and center when 97 and 29 are paired together?

If these 2 players are available and they’re both top 6 players and the Oilers are losing Nuge because he’s a million too much.. Why are these 2 players not receiving a million too much on the open market since they’re also able to cover all these bases? Wallets are tight when the narratives fit?

RNH has never been a river pusher, yet his skills have always allowed him to compliment the riverboat gambler of the group. The DRY line won a man league MVP, Hopkins was the left wing on that line looking every bit the part.

MrEd

Given the possibility of losing RNH, Larsson, and Barrie to free-agency this year, is this not the year to go for it? I’m thinking that the organization would be in a stronger position with players at the bargaining table, and more likely to have a full building for them to play in next year, if there was some measure of success this post-season. Plus Smith seems to be feeling it.

Last edited 6 months ago by MrEd
MrEd

I think we’ll be able to retain Larsson.

I think Barrie will walk.

I think RNH will be given a choice to make and that there is a 50% chance that he’ll choose to stay.

jeetz

I know I am in the minority, but I am not a Draisaitl fan. there is no arguing his talent, but he is pouty and takes really long shifts. I do not believe you can win a championship with his attitude (that I see). In the off season I would look at blockbuster trade and take advantage of his resume and rareness as a big talented center that you can almost never trade for. This is my off season trade proposal. Remember I consider Draisaitl as a monster commodity.

Draisaitl + Neal + Jones + Broberg + Koskinen

Eichel (1 mil retained)+ Rienhart + Dhalin + Ullmark

I didn’t include Hall or RNH because whatever happens to those 2 happens before this off season trade.

I dont know what the off season fwds would look like, but I see

Nurse Barrie
Dahlin Bear
Klefbom Bouchard

or

Nurse Bear
Dahlin Larsson
Klefbom Bouchard

Last edited 6 months ago by jeetz
MrEd

Holy crap. That’s a very large trade.

MrEd

Im with you on coupling Broberg with Neal’s contract though to get the capspace and a rental + considerations.

Material Elvis

Is this your attempt at the downvote record?

Seriously?! You want to trade one of the best players in the NHL because of body language and shift length?

pts2pndr

You do remember that when Connor went out and everyone was doom and gloom Draisaitl stepped up and the team never missed a step. What you see as pouty is a vestige of hating to lose. Draisaitl would be a number one centre on auguably all teams except a couple. Take a look at all his stats and he has one thing all the others for the most part don’t and that is size. One of these days he will go off on the likes of turtlechuk and the space he will be given will grow exponentially.

OriginalPouzar

I 100% disagree with the premise of trading Drai (i.e. pouty, etc.) but just looking at the trade itself and its MASSIVE win for the Oilers:

Eichel, Dahlin and Reinhart….. plus Ullmark (granted, he’s a pending UFA) who is a target of mine….. and the Oilers get rid of two negative value contracts, one being among the worst in the league….

JimmyV1965

Ya. Drai might be the second best player in the world, but the Sabres would never do this.

Scungilli Slushy

That is a wild one. It may end up being a win for the Oilers as unlikely as it is.

But if pouty is a concern, I think it’s an epic fail. Eichel is as needy as they come.

OriginalPouzar

I think its more that “may end up being a win” – that’s a slaughter.

Eichel is pretty much on Drai’s level, maybe not quite there but, if anything one tier down (and that’s debatable) – Dahlin is 20 and Reinhart is legit top 6.

Not to mention getting rid of two negative contract and gaining a legit starting tender (who I want realistically).

leadfarmer

If Seattle signs Nuge to a 7.5 mil contract at least we won’t have to worry about them being competently run like Vegas

Bag of Pucks

One of the great disappointments for Oiler fans is we’ve never gotten our Derek Jeter moment, a superstar that plays his entire career in the home team’s silks.

We came close except for $100k for Ryan Smyth and I think his emotional sendoff reflected that. For us, Smyth is an Oiler first, last and always, despite detours in Colorado and LA. Hall saw that and expressed how much he wanted that too. I suspect that’s the reason he’s beloved by a portion of this fanbase to this day. Taylor never wanted to leave. He wanted to win here.

I used to think the superstars leaving was a small market money thing only and would change under Katz. Now I’m not so sure. Loyalty to flag, company, community, etc. is seemingly becoming an outdated concept for many. ‘What have you done for me lately’ is the mantra of the modern athlete. Edmonton in the dead of winter remains a tough sell for these rich young men particularly when wives and children have a voice in the decisions.

The most likely scenario for me is Nuge in Seattle someday, Connor a Leaf (spits), and Draisaitl becoming a UFA Ranger. It’s why I will always cheer for and support this team but don’t get as emotionally invested as a fan in individual players as I once did.

I would love for Oiler fans to have our Beliveau / Lemieux moment to change this narrative. But it’s going to take an exceptional committment from a special athlete to this frozen friendly place to make that happen.

leadfarmer

I haven’t lived in Edmonton for a long time
but the inferiority complex is palpable from here

Bag of Pucks

Is Edmonton a nice place to live? Yes.

Are their other cities with a better climate and quality of life? Yes.

Is it possible for both of these statements to be true without an ‘inferiority complex’ involved? Yes.

leadfarmer

Some people would rather be a hero of a city than another random rich guy living in Orange County

pts2pndr

Edmonton has much to offer. I found it a great place to live! I agree the climate has too much winter. Quality of life is not all about weather. Access to Jasper ( short drive) camping fishing and reasonable golf for the longer summer days. Most larger cities are such that the drive to work ends up over the course of a career being in about 2 years in real time. Everywhere you go is measured in driving time not miles as much time is spent in stop and go traffic.Great educational and sports facilities for your family. There is a lot to like about the city and I haven’t even brought into play the people and the unbelievable community support.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I find myself going in the opposite direction. I care less and less about the team. If McD and Drai ever leave I would stop watching the Oilers in favour of their new teams.

After years of mismanagement and incompetence and tier 1 fan talk, I have no loyalty to the team. I also thought Katz would stop the bleeding but, in my opinion, his decisions and management teams have only made the problems worse. Want to make Edmonton winters more unappealing? Make sure your team is awful year over year.

I enjoy watching McD and Drai make magic. That is about it.

Side

I think Drai and McDavid in comparison to their peers are already making an exceptional committment.

Max length contracts for them with no serious rumblings of them wanting to be moved or being moved.

Compared to Matthews who signed only a 5 year contract with the Leafs. Marner 6 years.

Compared to Eichel who is probably hoping he will be traded any day now.

Compared to Laine and Dubois for example who both seemed unhappy (I could be wrong) playing where they were drafted.

I don’t see McDavid as a sentimental type. The only way I see him going to the Leafs is if they give him the best chance of winning. But will Toronto be the place McDavid can win? Maybe if him, Marner and Matthews all agree to take major pay cuts for their new contracts to play together. But I doubt that will happen.

Only way I see McDavid and Draisaitl leave is if Holland turns into Chiarelli or MacT. Also don’t see that happening. The team is progressing under Holland and I think McDavid and Draisaitl realize they are arguably the best 2 players in the league and the grass isn’t guaranteed to be greener on another side.

geowal

I still remember well the “SIGN SHAWN HORCOFF!” Banner that adorned the top of this blog for a period that summer. And then they did, and people got to complain about the contract.
He was a vital player at the time, but people didn’t understand or acknowledge the bell curve of player performance.

McSorley33

Happy Easter LT.

Happy Easter Everyone.

We have lots to be thankful for…

MrEd

Maybe the final decision regarding RNH should wait until after the playoffs. At 2LW he’s going to get Nylander and/or Anderson (or Tuffoli) and/or Wheeler.

Last edited 6 months ago by MrEd
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Thank you for the blog LT. After the decade of darkness, McDrai and this blog are really the only reasons I watch hockey anymore. Thank you for all the great stories, analysis, and patience (especially for mediocre and often inflammatory posters, like me). I hope you are your family remain healthy and safe.

McSorley33

We now have a formal PR campaign mounted about Lagesson over Jones. ( defending coaching decision to play Laggy over Jones)

Cassandra was right all along.

I love Lagesson and think he is a good prospect. But at least for this year I don’t think he is better than Jones.

Laggeson looks to be a 3rd pair / PK guy. Who can pinch hit on occasion
in the top 4

Yes, Caleb Jones has his warts for sure.

But I am not sure ( too early yet) Laggy will ever have quickness to be in top 4 against other teams best.

Jones elite skating – he *only* has 78 games played.

We have seen Nurse finally mature his game.

Beware of giving up on Caleb Jones.

He needs more at bats. The game has not yet slowed down for him.

It will.

Material Elvis

Neither player has established themselves yet. Jones has way more potential for sure. Cassandra has been right on several key issues so would make sense to give his words careful consideration. He also said that power play points earned with McDavid and Draisaitl have no value. That is Nugent-Hopkin’s primary value. Plus he says that UFA contracts for players that are predominantly in their 30’s are signed by dumb GM’s. Logically, he’s saying that the Oilers should walk away from the Nuge’s upcoming UFA contract. Would you?

pts2pndr

I don’t believe very many posters have given up on the young man. The coach not playing him against certain teams has more to do with strategic use of assets. His mistakes are fixable and have a great deal to do with his limited time in top four. He is a valuable asset and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. He will have Avery good NHL career maybe not with the Oil.

Sierra

Leave Sean Avery out of this.

Foege Foegele Torpe

“Why would anyone want my turkey seconds?”
It’s been awhile, but I’m pretty sure that was the quote

Last edited 6 months ago by Foege Foegele Torpe
albertaboundedmonton

Thanks LT for the comparison. If Nuge’s production falls off over the next 6 years as you project it will then a 5.5×5 seems reasonable. Wishing you and everyone here glad Easter tidings. Happy Spring.

Woogie63

I would not be signing any UFA to a 6 year contract. Until the owners understand the hockey revenue implications of Covid. If it was my money, I would be placing shorted bets. If the cap went down that could hamstring a club.

OriginalPouzar

Per MOU for the CBA extension, the cap won’t be below $81.5M.

It will be $81.5M and then there are the triggers to increase (basically $4.8B HRR and the escrow balance being paid off). If won’t be going up for years but it won’t be going down either.

OriginalPouzar

Per Dreger:

Number of positive cases climbing within the Vancouver Canucks. More than 20 players/coaches combined have tested positive. Variant symptoms include vomiting, cramping and dehydration. Family members are getting it. Scary situation. Next 5-7 days will determine scheduling.

Sierra

Let’s wait for KGO to chime in before concluding it’s scary, but I do agree with you.

maudite

Brutal

OriginalPouzar

Terry Jones is reporting that the earliest the Canucks might play is the Mon/Wed games against the Oilers a week tomorrow.

Here is hoping.

Harpers Hair

Highly unlikely Vancouver will have enough healthy players by that time.
Also, the Utica Comets have not played in weeks due to Covid so no help available from the farm.

godot10

Terry Jones cannot count to 10 apparently. And the correct number of days is probably 14, not 10, at a minimum. 17 or 18 days is likely.

The minimum clearance for a person with Covid is 10 days. Add in at least one practice day, get you to 11. Then a game, 12 days. That is the absolute best case.

Sierra

I can’t see that happening.

OriginalPouzar

Per Jack Michaels, from practice, looks like the same lineup to be deployed against the Habs.

JOFA

LT,

Happy Easter to you and yours.

Do you think Nuge is a “true” number one centre on the top 15 teams in this league? What would you offer if you were Holland?

Material Elvis

Ok. Let’s play the Negotiation Game! You just offered him 4 x $6M and he rejected that. He sees himself as a top 6 center, not a winger and not relegated to the 3rd line. He counters at 7 x $7.5M (i.e. HH’s Seattle contract). How long do you feel he can play the top 6 center role effectively? What would you counter offer, knowing that you are overpaying in term or dollars?

Harpers Hair

I just took a quick look at the UFA centres available this offseason…pretty thin gruel.

Nuge has the leverage here and Holland may unfortunately be in the position of negotiating on Seattle’s behalf since there will be few other teams with the cap space to make a bid if Nuge goes UFA.

If Holland sticks to his guns on either term or money, Seattle would be able to beat it by offering more of one but not both.

pts2pndr

Depending on how things go your Canucks could be in the market also!

Shamus23

I do believe Nuge wants to win a cup. Besides location closer to his ponies, why would he want to go to a Seattle ? If he wants to win a cup, it won’t happen their for a long time probably. Teams that are close to being cup contenders don’t have much cap room. Except we do next year .

defmn

If it is going to take $7.5 to re-sign Nuge I thank him for his service and go shopping for a 3rd line centre in the $3.5 M range and a scoring LW for about $5 M.

That fills two spots instead of one for the extra million.

Sierra

me too.

JOFA

Me three😊

pts2pndr

Remember the bringing in Lucic to replace Hall debacle. There is a possibility the team could end up in a better position but our track record on these kind of moves is less than stellar. Then there was moving of the great one. Unlike a video game once the decision is made we have to live with. The mantra was get good players. Keep good players.

defmn

Pre cap mantra, though, to be fair.

pts2pndr

True and it does alter the playing field.

defmn

I think the cap put the GM position back as central to a team’s success or failure rather than the owner’s cheque book.

It also made it more complicated than just getting good players. Now you need to get good players that complement each other at cap hits that allow for maximum talent to be acquired.

I guess we will see how that dynamic affects Nuge’s future.

pts2pndr

I agree and regardless of the player there is a point where the player can’t be signed without doing more damage than good for the team. My hope is that Nuge and Holland can find a dollar sum that is fair for both Nuge and the team!

OriginalPouzar

I agree and regardless of the player there is a point where the player can’t be signed without doing more damage than good for the team. My hope is that Nuge and Holland can find a dollar sum that is fair for both Nuge and the team!

Yes, I agree the deal has to be reasonable for both sides and I think they can make that happen – maybe Nuge gets an extra year of term (the 6th year) to come down in AAV to $6M, for example.

Someone

The Lucic thing was only as bad as it was because
-the Hall for Larsson deal was bad value
-Lucic was an overpay long term for a player that most predicted, correctly, was on the verge of decline

There isn’t really a trade aspect to signing Nuge, so it’s more of a contract thing. If Nuge asks for $7m+ with term, you’re looking at an overpay for current ability, and probably several years of declining value at the end. Sounds a lot like the Lucic deal. I do believe that whoever Nuge is replaced with will likely be a step down, but overpaying him would be a mistake IMO.

Material Elvis

I’m with you. I don’t know what my line in the sand is for Nuge. I would prefer a 4 year term at $5M but the agent won’t sign that deal. 5 year term would be my limit for any UFA deal. And I would go as high as $5.5M per year. Then play him as a LW with Draisaitl (nod to Godot).

defmn

These things always come down to compromise and desire imo. If the team wants to keep Nuge & Nuge wants to stay then they find a term & number that makes both sides equally unhappy.

And then we bitch or crow about it depending on subsequent events. 😉

GordieHoweHatTrick

But it should…
that’s a reasonably good deal for the player and team in these times.
I was going to ask this exact question today…
cheers all!

Last edited 6 months ago by GordieHoweHatTrick
JOFA

I think faceoffs should be taken into consideration as well. I don’t think he would be anywhere near a top line Centre without checking the numbers.

JOFA

The math is in!

44.3% career. That’s ugly. It appears last year was an anomaly. I think we would be hard pressed to find many number one centres with that terrible of a percentage.

OriginalPouzar

Do McDavid’s faceoff effect his label as a first line center?

90s fan

If you are just at or just below 1st line C in all cats, and then only have 44% on the dot, perhaps it further tios the scales? Do we value FO%? How much do we value it?

JOFA

Sorry OP I just finished doing 1000 push-ups.

McDavid is already better in the dot, and will continue to get better imo.

When Nuge scores a 100 points a season I’ll forgive his pathetic faceoff percentage 😉

pts2pndr

He may not be a number one centre on the top 15 teams however in my opinion he is Edmonton’s best overall 200 ft player. His attitude and work ethic cannot be questioned. Quality individual and quality player.

DieHard

Total speculation but I don’t think Nuge and family want to leave. Don’t they have a ranch near Red Deer?aren’t they already rich? I like 5X5 and yearly after if he is still able and willing. I fear he goes to Seattle at like 7X7 and is hated by the fan base.

godot10

I am willing to pay Nugent-Hopkins 5 or 6 times $6.5 millionish, but I am going to play him on left wing with Leon Draisaitl.

That contract with that deployment would be value for money. If one doesn’t intend to deploy Nugent-Hopkins correctly, then that contract might not be value for money.

Holland and Tippett clearly don’t see Nugent-Hopkins the way I do, so I don’t expect Nugent-Hopkins to be signed.

dustrock

Agreed

Bling

What follows is a full-throated defence of Dominik Kahun. 

Kahun has been criticized (unfairly so) in these parts for some or all of the following: 

1 – Doesn’t score enough. 
2 – Too small. 
3 – Doesn’t win battles.  

Etc. 

Let us first address production. 

Kahun is scoring at a pace of 16 EV goals/82 games this season. This strikes me as quite good; what surprised me was how very good indeed this number is. 

Including last season through to this season, and a minimum TOI of 800 minutes, Kahun ranks 66th in the NHL in EV goals/60. 

By definition, there are 31*6 = 186 top six forwards in the NHL. 66/186 is comfortably first line level. Having him as your second line winger means you are cooking with gas! 

Interesting fact 1: Kassian is ranked 68th by this metric; Alexander Barkov and Nathan MacKinnon are tied for 69th.

Let us dig deeper into production, specifically shooting percentage. 

Kahun has a shooting percentage of 11.5% over his career. This number struck me as quite good; in fact, it is weighed down by his rookie campaign, in which he shot 9.5%. 

Including this season and last season, Kahun has compiled (at even strength) a shooting percentage of 13.6%, good for 53/325 eligible players (minimum TOI of 800 minutes). 

Interesting fact 2: Kahun trails Mark Stone, Kucherov, and McDavid by a margin of 0.12% or less.    

Let us now look into this question of “toughness” and “winning battles.” 

I have no numbers to address the misconception that Kahun does not win battles. However, I strongly believe that this is a biased observation. It is biased by the following: 

1 – Kahun is quick, sound positionally, and therefore more often puts himself in position to be in puck battles. As a result, he *may appear* to lose more battles. Attribution bias! 

2 – Kahun is small, and when he loses a puck battle, the puck battle loss is unfairly attributed to his height by those who consider him small. Confirmation bias! 

As you all know, I am a proponent (though not practitioner) of the holiest of all religions, Disciplined Physical Play. How do you measure Disciplined Physical Play with readily available stats? Forget hits. How about penalty differential? 

A good penalty differential tells me the player is in the fight enough to piss of the opponent and disciplined enough not to retaliate. 

Kahun has a penalty drawn differential of +0.26 over this season and last. This ranks 97/297, minimum of 80 games played. Is that a comfortable top six rank? Yes!  

Value. 

What cannot be argued is this player’s value. 975 K (1.2% cap space) is peanuts for this level of production. Little Kahuna is a Big Tuna when it comes to value. 

I am extremely bullish on Kahun going forward. If he were drafted in the first round he’d be signed long term by now. If he were 6’1, he’d be signed by now. 

Kahun is the hot, smart, funny, low-maintenance, delightful type of person that you aspire to meet and marry.  He does the dishes, takes out the garbage, and doesn’t care about being on the PP. 

Sign the man! 

Side

“Yeah but if you take away the Ottawa, Flames and Vancouver games Kahun played…….”

I kid, I kid.

wolf8888

excellent post, IMO

JOFA

I prefer MacKinnon😉

McSorley33

Excellent defence.

But criticized unfairly in these parts?

Nobody here scratched Kahun

*Dave Tippett* has made Kahun a healthy scratch on multiple occasions.

This defence needs to be directed at the right audience.

Side

I reread your comment and with all due respect on this point:

Kahun is the hot, smart, funny, low-maintenance, delightful type of person that you aspire to meet and marry.  He does the dishes, takes out the garbage, and doesn’t care about being on the PP””

Many would argue that you would want to marry someone who cares about being on the PP.

Bling

Yes, special teams matter for sure. The metaphor gets stretched when you have McDavid, Drai, Nuge, etc, haha.

Oilander

Excellent contribution as always, Mrs. Kahun. 😉

Bling

Saying that the correlation is low from season-to-season does not mean that we should discount even strength goal production.

Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do, and scoring even strength goals is climbing Everest.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=800&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

Check out that list of players sandwiched around Kahun. Pretty good company to be in.

Your point on sample size is well taken. That being said, grouping Kahun in with guys who get first unit or even second unit PP time is completely unfair.

Not every guy gets to play on the PP, but everybody gets to play at evens.

What Kahun has done with the time he has been given borders on extraordinary.

Bling

“The lack of PP time is a data point. If Kahun is extraordinary at scoring Mt. Everest even strength goals, why is his HC choosing not to put him on the ice to score easier PP goals?”

Kahun is not on the power play because he is not one of the four best power play options on a team that runs one unit. Nothing in that statement concerns EV play.

Is Chiasson a better player than Kahun at evens because he is on the power play? Chiasson’s presence on the fourth line suggests otherwise.

I am not suggesting Kahun = MacKinnon or Barkov. I am saying that since 2019 this player has contributed at a high level at the hardest thing of all in hockey, which is scoring EV goals.

Inspired by your example, I adjusted the filters to look at players who have scored 5 or fewer PP points and scored at least 15 EV goals from 2019 to present.

50 players qualify, and Kahun is tied for 32nd. Of the guys ahead of him, only Chytil and Laughton have played fewer games. He is tied with Hyman for GP.

I think this makes Kahun look even more intriguing, not less.

Material Elvis

Re: Nuge vs Horcoff

a) I would compare points per game rather than 5v5 scoring. We already know Nuge’s 5v5 production is bottom 6 level. If we don’t value the PP production, there is no way we can pay him $5-6M per year.
b) I would use percentage of cap to compare contract value rather than raw dollars.
c) ‘shirts off for Nuge’ doesn’t quite have the same ring to it

90s fan

What is the dollar value for “shirts off for Horcoff?

Material Elvis

That was worth $1M/year…..at least.

defmn

How much do you want to pay for that kind of future even strength offense? It’s not an easy answer, ladies.

No. It is not an easy answer.

It is compounded by the flat cap & the combined salaries of the two men who took his job as a top six centre & the very real impact of having 25% of the available budget spent by the time you get to the third player on the team.

Not an easy answer at all.

Last edited 6 months ago by defmn
Fuge Udvar

How much is an NMC worth to Nuge? It’s the only way i can see him signing for 5.5M.

I think this is one of the few situations where an NMC is beneficial to both parties. Oilers get a discount. Nuge gains the security of playing on a team with McDavid and Draisaitl.

JOFA

At 4 years max? I might consider it.

dustrock

Thanks for the Easter message LT. Spring a time of renewal as always. Hope everyone is safe and healthy

oilsnc79

Here here.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers practicing this morning before heading back out east. Don’t imagine any change in projected deployment.

Brantford Boy

I had to look up the Horcoff contract:
https://www.nhl.com/news/oilers-sign-forward-shawn-horcoff-to-six-year-contract-extension/c-380422

I still say sign the Nuge… he brings to much in his total game to just replace with a skilled winger. I believe it was Babcock when he was asked about playing McDavid and Draisaitl, and his response was something like “well they already had a number one centre on most teams before those two came along”.

Would you rather Laine than Nuge at the same figure?

Thanks for the blog LT. Always thankful for what you’ve created here.

JOFA

Sorry, Nuge is not a number one centre on a good team. But there is always Seattle. Have fun!

Sierra

I’m surprised by the down votes. People think RNH is a number one centre on a good team? I suppose if he’s playing with 2 top flight wingers he might be.

Last edited 6 months ago by Sierra
Reja

They have horse blinders on but what ever floats your boat.

pts2pndr

I could say that the grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence and or some people don’t realize what they have until it’s gone. People are entitled to have differing opinions and time will tell who is right. I think we should try to keep Nuge but at a fair cap and that means fair for both parties. As with all bargaining we wait!

leadfarmer

I think I give Nuge 5.5 x 6 years

JOFA

In a perfect world, I give Nuge 5.5 X 4. If they have to let him walk, so be it. He’s been paid handsomely for his career with the Oilers. If he doesn’t like it, he can go play for a shit team for an extra million a year. I’m over it at this point. Nuge is my favorite player, and his jersey is the only one I own. No more loyalty for me. I could care less about overpaid millionaires, playing the game they love fighting for an extra million, meanwhile the rest of us fight to make a living for our families. If you don’t like the contract you’re offered Nuge, don’t let the door hit you on the ass. Go sit in rainy ass depressing Seattle for six years and never see the playoffs again😊

kgo

With all due respect LT, I come here to escape reality, spare me the “wear a mask and social distance” message, I hear it 1000 times a day from other media

leadfarmer

Actually thank you LT for reinforcing this message
People are now outright ignoring the people that have been the messengers on this for the last year

kgo

Either way, just don’t let the fear get you.

Side

People should be more afraid. Maybe they would respect it more and be more responsible. Maybe if they did we wouldn’t have to keep shutting down multiple times.

Thanks for the message and reminder LT.

Last edited 6 months ago by Side
JOFA

Agent Smith quote:

“I’d like to share a revelation that I’ve had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet”.

Let the mouth breathers weed themselves out😉

Material Elvis

Exactly. Everyone needs to be more cautious with these new variants. One of my office manager’s father (70 years old) caught the Brazilian variant and it killed him in four days from his test result. It’s no joke.

thebiggestmanintheworld

Yeah it’s the peoples fault. Not the half assed measures, misinformation and terrible handling by our vaunted leaders…

if you’re going to lock down, f#ckn lock it down…they tell everyone it’s serious, deadly, so don’t stand so close when you’re in Walmart shopping for groceries…makes sense right?

And boy, there are some people who should feel pretty bad now…have you seen, we have basically eradicated the flu? Article in the paper last week stated there have been zero recorded cases so far in 2021…so these measures have basically wiped out influenza, and nobody feels bad for the thousands and thousands and thousands of people we’ve let die over the years because we didn’t think there was anything we could do…but at least these people are making up for it making anyone who doesn’t tow the line on COVID feel pretty darn guilty…

people shouldn’t be afraid, they should be more informed…but fear is easier right?

pts2pndr

Not picking sides but healthy respect is a better term. Fear leads to anger over time which then leads to hate and rebellion. Let’s all work together to keep one another safe!

leadfarmer

I’m so sick of the response
you don’t need to fear something to do the right thing
I hope to never have to step foot into the covid unit ever again. But that looks like a pipe dream right now as I take a look at Michigan’s numbers.
I’ve had enough Covid patients come my way to not fear the virus but to have a lot of respect for what it can do.

kgo

We’re in agreement. Respect the virus, respect the situation, but don’t live in fear, don’t let fear cloud your judgement…stay rational San Diego.

Side

It’s okay to live in fear though, we all do.

I live in constant fear my tire will blow while I am driving my car leaving me stranded, so I keep a spare in my trunk.

I live in constant fear that my house will burn down with me in it while I sleep, so I have a fire alarm to wake me.

I live in constant fear that someone will break into my house and steal all of my things, so I have insurance, and a safe.

I live in constant fear that someone will not wear a mask, wash their hands and sneeze on everything, so I wear a mask in public, socially distance, and wash my hands.

It’s okay to be afraid, and LT’s message has no sign of clouded judgement.

Last edited 6 months ago by Side
kgo

There’s a difference between “managing your risk” and “living in constant fear” One uses logic and reason, the other is based on emotion.

pts2pndr

The difference is profound. In the case of COVID you are talking peoples lives or long term health. In the other you are talking about things which are replaceable. The two should never confused as same.

Side

I used an example of me burning to death in my sleep. Unless you are saying I am replaceable?

Ouch.

Last edited 6 months ago by Side
Slapshot

I don’t think the Vancouver Canucks again with this.

Genjutsu

Yes thanks for this message and all you’ve done to keep us distracted and entertained during this difficult time.

Not sure how I’d have gotten through without.

Happy Easter.

yamfry

Hard disagree. LT, I appreciate all of the messaging you provide both here and on the radio! Valuable public service.

Rondo

First of all corona viruses mutate generally speaking become more infectious and less deadly. Lockdowns don’t work, masks don’t work, you would think there would be a minimum standard for masks if the worked. PCR test is a joke the cycle count is too high. The guy who invented PCR said they are not a good test. The “vaccine” is experimental and there are too many unknowns. Why would anyone healthy under 70 take an experimental “vaccine” when the have over 99% chance of survival?

Material Elvis

This is classic medical misinformation from a person with no medical or scientific background. Weren’t you previously pushing hydroxychloroquine and Oleandrin (Mike Lindell was your information source lol)?

The virus mutations are more transmissible and more deadly. Vaccines work. Masks work. Don’t listen to this poster!!

Rondo

Check the box on the masks come in see what they say

PCR find out the cycle count in your city

Vaccine they never studied whether transmission occurs or not

Go to the CDC and look at the numbers

Your listening to mom with no research on your own

Lockdowns kill more people of other sickness than Covid

Don’t be so lazy

Material Elvis

Go drink some bleach and let me know how that goes.

Rondo

Great comeback. You’re lazy and have no science behind you.

Material Elvis

No buddy, that’s not how it works. You posted misinformation with nothing to back it up other than vague recommendations to “check the box on masks”, “go to CDC and look at numbers”, “lockdowns kill more people than Covid”, “your (sic) listening to your mom…”, etc.

Is that your definition of not being lazy? You want me to provide all the links that dispute your nonsense? No, I’m not going to waste my time doing that. It is your responsibility to provide the evidence that refutes the guidelines recommended by nearly every public health association in the world, not the other way around.

N64

Rondo. Just stop. Why should anyone believe your “research” now?

last March 13 you said: “The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu”

At 550k deaths the US is now at 44 times the 12.5k CDC cited for the swine flu. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

due to our contracts only being honored by Europe the 3rd wave in Canada will be are hardest. we’ve got a hard month or 2 until we get first doses into enough arms. so save your belly aching for those who share your grievances.

Rondo

 The CDC later admitted that 94% of deaths had underlying conditions. That means that of the 527,000 deaths reported as Covid19, only 6% were caused directly by Covid19, or 31,620. That brings the true case fatality rate to 0.12% out of the 27 million cases

Material Elvis

You can’t lower the fatality rate arbitrarily because there were underlying conditions in many cases. Many people with the same underlying conditions continue to live, not having contracted Covid. For example, hypertension does not directly lead to death, but can lead to stroke, which can kill you. It can also be linked with poor outcomes from contracting Covid. You just dismissed 100K+ Covid related deaths because ‘hey they would have died of hypertension anyway right?!’. Also, you completely neglect to mention long-term health complications of Covid survivors. Organ damage is real and it’s not very spectacular.

Rondo

 As at March 19, 2021, even with the cooked numbers and faulty tests, the CDC arrived at the following survival rates:
Ages 0-17 99.998%
Ages 18-49 99.95%
Ages 50-64 99.4%
Ages 65+ 91%

Rondo

Don’t let facts get in your way of your opinions.

Side

Are you the ghost of Rush Limbaugh?

Ginch

Today we celebrate 90 days of Rush’s sobriety.

Ginch

But I don’t care what you think. I care about what Lowetide thinks. Not you. We come here for Lowetide. Not you. With all due respect, beat it.

Sierra

Wow, just wow. Such an ignorant post.

Is this the post for record downvotes on LT…and rightfully so.

Last edited 6 months ago by Sierra
kgo

Yes “Ignorant” is the key word here….I come here to escape reality, to “ignore” the harsh realities outside the rink…ignorance is bliss afterall.

In all seriousness I bet HH is super jealous of the downvote score on my post.

Side

HH is far too busy manufacturing misinformation about a team that broke his heart +30 years look bad. He does not concern himself with petty things like downvotes. He is above that kind of thing!

Little Johnny Frostbite

With no due respect, based on those of us trying to get through this shit without feeling entitled to party or eat out at restaurants, or those of us that understand that a piece of cloth over your fucking face doesn’t restrict anything but your ability to kill your fellow citizens…and on behalf of my fiancee that works in healthcare and has been put at risk because of your absolutely ignorant attitude…just fuck off. That’s my response to anti-vax and anti-mask and pro-freedom idiots. Just fuck off. You don’t deserve respect when you’re against the “slightest” inconvenience to help your fucking neighbours. I live in fear because I don’t want to see another loved one die alone in a covid ward. Is that enough of a reason? Seriously, worst post I’ve read in here since the start of this shit. Sorry LT, I’ll go back to ignoring the trolls again…this was just a really disgusting comment to see here, seeing 1100 new cases, wards full of people UNDER the age of 65, and certain churches full and above the law. And no, I’m going to reply to anyone that disagrees, because this is fucking black and white. Science vs made up internet shit. Grow the fuck up.

thebiggestmanintheworld

He never said he was anti-mask, anti-vax…

He, like everyone else, is bombarded with this stuff all day, everyday.

He just stated he would like a place where he wasn’t. I mean, posts get erased for being “political” all the time…(I know who’s place this is)

nice, classy rant though

OriginalPouzar

Find out in 90 minutes or so but I can’t imagine Nygard gets claimed.  This doesn’t mean he is going anywhere (i.e. AHL) but, even it if he isn’t, the

Lennstrom assignment opens up a spot on the taxi squad.

Would not be surprised if we do so a call-up (although the timing isn’t the best as I would imagine the Mon/Wed games with Vancouver the following week are canceled)

defmn

Just to make it official.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
Nygard clears

maudite

I would have been shocked if this close to deadline anyone might take a flyer.