2020-21 Game 40: Oilers at Senators

When it comes to putting together a prospect pipeline, the Ottawa Senators have been firing on all cylinders for several decades. Right now, in the middle of a rebuild, there’s so much talent some of it might fall through the cracks. Expansion Seattle Kraken will take advantage but so could the Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

• New DNB: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on trade deadline needs
• Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s season of inactivity — what is the risk for the Oilers?
• Lowetide: Oilers futures watch — how new arrivals are making an impact at AHL Bakersfield
• New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers ahead of the trade deadline
• Lowetide: The Oilers’ big decision on defence — Caleb Jones or William Lagesson?
• Jonathan Willis: Finding the ideal centre for the Oilers at the trade deadline
• Lowetide: Oilers March report card
• Jonathan Willis: Who says no? NHL execs evaluate your Oilers trade proposals
• Lowetide: How the Oilers could benefit at the trade deadline from relaxed quarantine rules
• Lowetide: Every major transaction Ken Holland has made as Oilers GM
• Jonathan Willis: Five questions the Oilers need to answer by the NHL trade deadline
• Lowetide: Where does Zack Kassian fit on the Oilers, now and in the future?
• Lowetide: Oilers’ midseason depth chart informs their needs for trade deadline and beyond
• Jonathan Willis: A position-by-position look at the Oilers after 30 games
• Lowetide: How will Oilers GM Ken Holland make room in the lineup for Evan Bouchard?
• Lowetide: Are the Oilers and Elvis Merzlikins a trade match?
• Lowetide: Why Oilers GM Ken Holland shouldn’t wait for the deadline to make a trade
• Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
• Lowetide: Why are some Oilers fans hesitant to give Darnell Nurse his due?
• Lowetide: Top trade targets for the Oilers at the 2021 deadline
• Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021 trade value rankings
• Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?

OILERS AFTER 40 GAMES

• Oilers in 2015-16: 16-21-3, 35 points; goal differential -22
• Oilers in 2016-17: 20-13-7, 47 points; goal differential +5
• Oilers in 2017-18: 17-20-3, 37 points; goal differential -17
• Oilers in 2018-19: 19-18-3, 41 points; goal differential -6
• Oilers in 2019-20: 20-16-4, 44 points; goal differential -4
• Oilers in 2020-21: 23-14-2, 48 points; goal differential +13

A win tonight and Edmonton gets to 50 points in Game 40. If this was an 82-game season, we’d be talking about a 100-points season. It would have been Edmonton’s second 100-point campaign since 1986-87 (2016-17).

WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL

• At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
• At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: Vancouver (make up game) (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Expected April record: 8-4-0, 16 points in 12 games
• Actual April record: 1-0-1, 3 points in 2 games

A sweep in Ottawa gets the Oilers out to a fast start (7 points in four games), meaning the final 8 contests need deliver just 9 points to cover my bet. No idea how this month is going to go, but so far the team is averaging 1.5 goals per game for and against and have gathered three of a possible four points. Some luck there.

OTTAWA’S FARM TEAM

Brady Tkachuk isn’t going to be traded but is a fantastic young player. He is 12-11-23 in 39 games, with 177 shots on goal.

Drake Batherson isn’t going anywhere either but he’s one of my favourite young players. At 22, he has scored 18-24-42 in 82 career NHL games. He owns a heavy shot and would be an ideal acquisition for the Oilers.

Alex Formenton is a big, fast winger with complementary skill. His numbers (at 20, his NHLE via the AHL was 34.6) suggest a future middle-six LW role but that has value and it’s easy to imagine he could get lost in the prospect flood and be acquired for very little. For Edmonton, he represents similar offense to Tyler Benson in a much faster package.

Logan Brown has played in 29 NHL games, scoring 1-8-9. At five on five, he is 1-3-4 in under 100 minutes (2.55 pts-60). Brown is 23, 6.06, 220 and has scored 21-50-71 in 86 AHL games. He is more passer than shooter and is a two-way center. He won 39.6 percent of his NHL faceoffs, so maybe he’s a winger.

I would like to see McLeod recalled to Edmonton. I think it’s fairly clear coach Dave Tippett wants more speed and there’s absolutely time for an audition on left wing. That brings me to something I would like to see in the days ahead. Here is my suggested lines and pairings for today’s afternoon game:

• Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
• Ennis-McDavid-Puljujarvi
• Shore-Khaira-Chiasson
• McLeod-Haas-Archibald
• Nurse-Barrie
• Jones-Larsson
• Russell-Bear
• Smith (Koskinen)

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we preview an afternoon Oilers game on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy form the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will guide us through the pre-game and remind us of afternoon games of the before time. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk Masters, NBA and what I think is a juiced ball for MLB and how that might impact over under. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!