Cold Water Flat

by Lowetide
Laurent Brossoit, Leon Draisaitl photo by Mark Williams

I’m not sure there is much to be gained in going back over the mess that was HNIC’s second game from the Saddledome last night. Game, set, match. As the game wandered along, I was struck by just how many young players are on the roster, here and pushing to be part of the Oilers through the end of the decade.

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear struggled, Jesse Puljujarvi was 0-3 in on-ice goal differential at five on five, Kailer Yamamoto took a penalty and the Flames cashed on the power play. Evan Bouchard and William Lagesson weren’t in the lineup.

You know, some of these men aren’t destined to the Edmonton Oilers. Some could be gone this summer. Or sooner.


I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.


  • Oilers in 2015-16: 17-22-3, 37 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 21-14-7, 49 points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 18-21-3, 39 points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 21-17-4, 46 points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 25-15-2, 52 points; goal differential +10

Oilers are 15 points up on Calgary with 14 to play (Flames have 15 left). If the Oilers going 6-6-2 (14 points), the Flames would need to go 15-0-0 to beat Edmonton into the postseason. It’s over. Despite last night.


  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa, Calgary (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver (make up game) (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Expected April record: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
  • Actual April record: 3-1-1, 7 points in 5 games

Edmonton is off until Friday and then it’s non-stop action dusk to dawn every night (or close). If the Oilers finish as I predicted from here, the record for the season will be 30-18-2, 62 points. Placed over 82 games, that’s 102 points and a playoff team.


Rumours last night had the Oilers interested in some rental defensemen (Patrik Nemeth, who we had discussed) and Michael Del Zotto was suggested by Chris Johnston of SN as a player who might help.

That’s bad news for Jones, or Lagesson, or both. A rental like Nemeth would mean the young set are sitting, or part of the trade. Here’s a quick look at each man, all numbers five on five:

  • Caleb Jones: 12:42 per game; 50.11 Corsi; 52.59 Shots; 38.89 Goals; 53.06 Expected Goals
  • William Lagesson: 12:50 per game; 39.82 Corsi; 36.02 Shots; 52.94 Goals; 41.70 Expected Goals
  • Patrik Nemeth: 15:43 per game; 47.53 Corsi; 48.02 Shots; 50.00 Goals; 47.04 Expected Goals
  • Dal Zotto: 14:39 per game; 46.80 Corsi; 49.50 Shots; 57.69 Goals; 45.95 Expected Goals

I wrote about Nemeth (here) not long ago and he was the best of a group I thought Edmonton might be able to afford. Now that he’s been dealt, the play here is to keep Jones. If you line up Nurse-Bear, Jones-Larsson and Russell-Barrie I think that’s probably the best possible result. Barrie has been bleeding with Nurse lately, I think part of it is an injury to Barrie/Barrie exhaustion but haven’t seen anything on it.

The Oilers are in a dangerous spot here with Jones, and maybe Bear too for all I know. When a general manager is looking at a possible 10-year solution (I think both men could have long careers) it’s important not to send that kind of talent away for less than 100 cents on the dollar. Jones has his value suppressed currently, it’s on the downbeat. I wonder if the coaching staff believes he isn’t progressing as a coverage player. That’s the only thing I can think of as it pertains to keeping him in the lineup and moving him up the depth chart. He has so much talent. I wonder if there’s a crossroads for this player. I sincerely believe the Oilers will regret sending him away as a young man (if they do in fact trade him or lose him to expansion).

Left wing is another area Holland is looking at this weekend and in my opinion the skill LW job needs to be filled. Here are the primary Oilers with some trade candidates (all numbers five on five):

  • Rickard Rakell: 14:57 per game; 1.73 pts-60; 47.97 Shots; 47.91 Expected Goals
  • Taylor Hall: 14:33 per game; 1.34 pts-60; 49.26 Shots; 52.76 Expected goals
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 13:56 per game; 1.18 pts-60; 51.63 Shots; 56.97 Expected Goals
  • Mike Hoffman: 12:16 per game; 1.19 pts-60; 46.38 Shots; 42.67 Expected Goals
  • Dominik Kahun: 12:25 per game; 1.28 pts-60; 46.06 Shots; 44.52 Expected Goals
  • Tyler Ennis: 11:46 per game; 1.64 pts-60; 45.85 Shots; 48.22 Expected Goals

Any of the three possible acquisitions would be fantastic, price is of course the worry. I don’t believe Holland can afford to trade the first-round pick on a rental, even if it’s Hall or Hoffman. Rakell has one year left and would cost more because of it. Honestly? I’ll be shocked if Holland can reel in any of these men.


I know some of you might be curious about my take on Connor McDavid’s comments last night after the game. Commentary is unnecessary. There’s nothing to comment on. Listening is all that is required.


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If there is one Oilers player I am interested in watching develop its got to be that maligned rookie defenceman Bouchard …

The fact they haven’t traded Bouchard away for a Hall rental makes my day.

It. makes. my. day.


Does this mean Debrusk is an Oiler tomorrow?


I am wondering if Holland actually does anything.

I was going to post my Hall to Boston prediction, actually typed it 4 hrs ago, but got pulled away, lol. Interesting that Lazar was packaged with him, he was who I used in a package to Edm in a Capfriendly scenario, that ultimately looked too rich to me.

I have to the costs seem very low. So if Holland nets Getzlaf, Garland, Laughton and Kulikov for 0 1st rounders tomorrow, is anyone going to hate that?

Also, would anyone oppose a Nolan Patrick for Kahun + Lavoie trade?

Last edited 1 month ago by €√¥£€^$

If he nets those 4 it would have to be considered a successul deadline. Be grateful that he left Hall alone.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Well, if Kenny couldn’t get Hall for the peanuts Boston paid, then so be it. But we better not be spending draft capital for someone else’s 4th line/3rd pairing garbage tomorrow.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I don’t mean to go full godot, but I am going to have a meltdown if Holland trades for Glendening.


Great trade for the Bruins.

Hall type upgrades at the deadline are not always available, and almost never at that price.

Harpers Hair

Book it.


Only thing needing booking is yourself into a mental asylum sir.



Confirming. Hall and Lazar to Boston for Bjork and 2nd round draft pick.

seems like a steal for the bruins


Compared to the Foligno deal, definitely.

And now the talk turns to acquiring young DeBrusk,

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Wow. Taylor Hall is criminally underrated by the nhl.

This is worse than than the first Hall trade. Unbelievable.

Holland incoming with a 3rd for Glendening.


Perhaps my completely made up rumour about Hall having indiscrete sexual relations with space lizards is actually true… it’s the only way to explain this.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Foligno gets a bigger return than Hall. Incredible.


LT will be happy for his Bruins 😊


Hall and Lazar to Bruins for Bjork and a 2nd rounder.

Finally we can top talking about it.

Bill Clinternet

Yeah. Now we can return to 60% of the comments being your updates on what each Oiler prospect ate for lunch and which movie they watched in the evening


Condors play Tues, Wed and then twice on the weekend.

Should be a fun week!

Bill Clinternet

Awesome! The attention of the comments section will be back on you. Just how you seem to like it


Of note: you’ve decided to log in to make two posts – both attacking me.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

You searched the entire 237 comments to come to that conclusion? Hmm. I don’t think even Hilary henpecks poor Bill to that degree.


Control + F is a wonderful thing.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Well fuck … that is crazy good. Honestly didn’t know you could do that. Thanks, Side.


It is a game changer. Enjoy your new found power!

Material Elvis

I always assumed that poster was another HH burner account.

Harpers Hair

You make an awful lot of assumptions that are absolutely wrong.

But carry on with trying to create a safe space in a walled garden devoid of logic or reason.


Are you suggesting that what you provide is logic and reason?

Material Elvis

And you carry on creating an online ‘bridge’ on an island devoid of reality where you can sit and wait for goats to cross.


Why are you going after OP for providing Condors updates on Oilers blog?

Bill Clinternet

Because I found his comment where he was rejoicing over and end of discussion on a Taylor Hall trade narcissist and unnecessary. I have to come here and scroll through a shift by shift breakdown on Condors game nights. Yet he has the nerve to complain about too many comments discussing a former Oiler being rumoured in a trade involving the home team. Pot calling the kettle black and I felt he should be called out for it

Harpers Hair

It goes beyond spamming the site with prospect minutiae.

He’s been trying to control the narrative for years.



I love how much OP angers you. It throws your “trolling” defense right out the window. It’s great.


Controlling the narrative? Get a load of this quack. Fucking captain Gaslighter over here.

OP isn’t the fucking weirdo posting on a Vancouver Canucks blog about how glorious Marody is over all their prospects.

No that weird ass controlling the board and narrative bullshit is all yours bud.

The lies and the gaslighting, such a sad child you are.


He’s been trying to control the narrative

I believe LT is the one controlling the narrative.

This is a blog about the Edmonton Oilers (and future Edmonton Oilers).

Admiral Ackbar

Even on the right side of an argument you find a way to be wrong. This really feels like Tucker Carlson yelling at us about immigration when there’s a pandemic going on…

Sir, you’re out there even for this island.


I for one enjoy the Condors updates. In particular, I like that each one is its own post so I actually see them. OP may or may not be a narcissist (I really have no opinion and don’t care), but I’m not sure that his post really warrants a personal attack.


I see what you mean. But at least the Condor updates are unique. I feel like I have read the same Hall trade suggestions, speculations, player and character breakdowns of Hall about a hundred times already. I don’t hate the Hall talk, but I think mostly everything has been said about Hall at this point.

And the same talk will come again come Free Agency! Woooo!


Luckily you’re going to keep us updated on the Canucks and Kings and Avs prospects. And the latest, slightly out of date, news on whatever NHL teams/players doing better than the Oilers.

Material Elvis

Yes, you noticed that, too!

90s fan

I appreciate his updates.

Material Elvis

Mark Messier once kicked sand in Bill Clinternet’s face on Long Beach.


No that was DSF DCB HH


Meh some times other times its regurgatated stuff that our most gracious host posts

season not played

This is one of the funniest comments I have ever read on here. If I could give it 100 plus votes I would.


I agree a bit but didnt find it that funny


Folks should take a sec before slicing WOWY’s between 3 players half way into a season in which we play just 6 other teams, or at least take a sec before offering the results as good evidence. Seeing as the genie is out of the bottle though, here’s what I see in the Drai-CMD-Barrie results.

There are 4 possibilities to consider. All of them together and combinations of two without the other.

Scenario, TOI, GF-GA

All, 165, 16-7
CMD-Drai, 65, 8-1
CMD-Barrie, 248, 11-15
Drai-Barrie, 146, 8-3

Two things.

One, the CMD-Drai result is UN-sustainable and should be heavily discounted. No one plays 8-1 ball in 60 minutes over long stretches. Hockey would be just too damn easy otherwise.

Two, the only losing combination is CMD-Barrie without Drai.

Who are CMD and Barrie playing with away from Drai would be my first question. And why are they scoring just 2.66 while giving up 3.63 goals per 60 would be my next question.

I’m guessing the answer has something to do with RNH and JP struggling to score with CMD at 5v5 plus something to do with the shellacking the team took at home against TOR.

Not sure Barrie is the root of all evil though.

RNH and JP with CMD has officially become a thing. I don’t think JP is helping CMD and I don’t think CMD is helping JP. RNH seems a bit lost too, putting up disastrously bad offense in a UFA year while playing with the leading scorer in the league. Neither RNH nor JP are a threat to score from distance like Drai. I think other teams know that so they load up in front of the net when the trio is in the zone, forcing JP and RNH to fight through a forest of bodies for loose pucks. And the bounces haven’t been going our guys’ way. This plus a constant yellow alert on the part of the other teams with CMD on the ice to limit rush chances… I don’t see this trio figuring these things out against the other team’s best defenders.

JP would be better off playing a larger role in smaller minutes against weaker competition.

RNH would be better off with Drai and KY.


The trouble with playing JP elsewhere is Yamo and Drai have been a thing and we don’t have a 3C.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac

Jeff Carter supposedly going to Pens


Flames got more for Rittich than he’s worth – 3rd rounder – even with 50% retained.

Per Chris J. – Leafs now hold just three 2021 draft picks (Rounds 2/5/6) and four 2022 draft picks (Rounds 1/2/5/6).

Harpers Hair

Leafs need draft picks like a fish needs a bicycle.

Theres more than one way to run a railroad.


If you want to go “all in” on a short term window and then return to mediocre or worse.

Harpers Hair

It’s not a binary choice.


plan the parade like every other maple laugh fan now


Big save Dave to Toronto for a 2022 3rd rounder.
Must mean Andersen is done otherwise he’d be 4th on depth chart


Mike Riley to Boston for a 3rd rounder.

I had previously posted thoughts on renting Riley.


2022 3rd rounder.


That’s even less than Florida paid for Montour who is significantly worse


What’s with the Barrie hate?

Barrie is a career 21:47, .64 Pts/GP, 381 pts D-man. Not a lot of players like this guy, a top 20 scorer by points and rates for D-men. He’s had one year out of 9 where he’s scored less than a .5 Pts/GP rate (top-6 forward). Klef, our 1D up till this year, has scored over .5 Pts/GP just once out of his 6 seasons so far. Barrie is definitely not a player the Oilers have had, not since, I dunno, Visnovsky?

Barrie, like Bear, is a smaller guy. He’s going to have a tougher time defending. He’ll give goals back. But we didn’t get him to stay at home and defend, a la Larsson and Russell, did we?

Forget his effect on CMD or Drai’s game, these guys are already playing super high level.

Let’s talk about Nurse.

I’ve never seen Nurse play as well as he has this year with the puck on his stick. He’s calmer, more purposeful, more confident. His playmaking has taken a pleasant upward turn. He’s slowing down, picking and hitting spots with his shots. His passes are more on target, more likely to put the defense at a disadvantage.

Nurse is playing 25:42 a night (ranked #4), scoring at a .67 Pts/GP rate (ranked #16), +19 (ranked #4, I know, I know… +/-), tied for 1st with 23 EV points, and 1st with 12 EV goals. Those are all career bests or will be by the time the season is over. Hallelujah. That’s a #1D. Full credit to Nurse, but does he become the player he’s become this year playing with Bear?


Stunning post (again)!
Short answer is yes
For me Nurse was always taking another step forward this year regardless of D partner.
Darnell Nurse puts the work in, off season & in season.
Hard work, drive & talent accounts for 95% of his on ice results.
That & a (probably) career best shooting percentage.
But you are 100% correct when it comes to gf/ga% and corsi.
25’s possesion metrics would likely not be as high with 74 who has had an uneven year.
All that being said, Tyson Barrie has little to do with Darnell’s TOI #’s. That’s always going to happen with a True #1 D-man (Hallelujah!!)
Another metric worth looking into would be the amount of primary assists Barrie has on Nurse’s goals.
Lastly, I got love for Barrie, in terms of offensive output. He is a legit first pairing Right shot D.
No one will ever convince me this team is better off without T.B.
In terms of defense; I agree with Jim Playfair, protecting a 1 goal lead with under 2 mins to play most often we see Nurse-Bear. or Larsson.


I would hazard a guess that some people “hate” Barrie because he has blocked 2 fan favourites in Bear and Bouchard.

Barrie signed for a discount and it has paid off handsomely for us. Oilers usually overpay for a UFA and their game goes further south. Barrie is doing the opposite. We should be estatic that a UFA signing here has exceeded expectations. That’s almost as rare as unicorns.

with Nurse, I think he has the season he has whether it’s Barrie or Bear or Larsson.

The time off because of Covid helped Nurse. The game is slower for him and it shows.
I believe he is right now, a number 1 Dman. I’d love to have seen a healthy Klefbom on the left side this year. We would be pretty damn close to the balance photo me thinks.


Oilers fans hate offensive defencemen. It is known.


yep id be happy to sign Barrie RNH and another top 6 stud with some good size speed and skill this summer and call it a day. Now about that starting goalie?

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
The NHL’s top 3 leading scorers since March 1: 

– Gabriel Landeskog – 31 points
– Nathan MacKinnon – 30 points
– Mikko Rantanen – 30 points


Harpers Hair

Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) Tweeted:
The Colorado Avalanche are 13-0-2 in their last 15 games and have outscored their opponents 62-24 lol

90s fan

That’s insane.

Victoria Oil

Not sure where you are getting your stats. Colorado was pounded 8-3 by Minnesota a few days ago.


5 day old tweets.

Good catch.

Harpers Hair

Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) Tweeted:
Colorado Avalanche
since March 10…
13-0-2, 28 points (1st in NHL)
+39 goal differential (1st)
+14.8 shot diff (1st)
4.47 goals per game (1st)
1.87 goals allowed per game (1st)
68.15 xGF% at even strength (1st) 
23 points for MacKinnon (1st)
22 points for Landeskog (2nd)

Gamma Cassiopeiae

That Landeskog fellow sticks out like a sore thumb. He’d better up his game right quick!

Harpers Hair

Reached 500 career points tonight.


Again nobody cares. go find yourself a Avs blog now that they are your favorite team.


Points per game since March 1:

1) McDavid
2) MacKinnon
T3) Draisaitl and Crosby

90s fan

That’s also insane!

Harpers Hair

How is the rest of team doing?




Better than your sick bay Canucks!


Nobody cares HH go away you doink

Ice Sage

It’s shocking how good the Avalanche are – I mean who, I ask, WHO saw that coming? Outta nowhere!


Nobody here really cares


Here’s a long shot:

Puljujarvi, Jones, Koskinen, Neal and a 4th round pick…
Laine, Del Zotto and Merzlikins.


I am one that thinks Laine is highly over-rated but the Jackets don’t do this trade even without the massive negative value of Neal’s contract (which would require a 1st round pick and Lavoie – or similar value – added to the trade).

Merzlikins is exempt from the expansion draft – they don’t need to trade a goalie – they can keep both Korpisalo and Merzlikins – if they choose to trade one, they will do so for real value.


Damn.. I saw Merzlikins on TSN’s trade bait list and assumed he was an upcoming UFA… I didn’t double-check on capfriendly. My bad.


There’s very little value coming back from Edmonton there. I don’t really want Laine, but that’s a deal you probably have to do.


Vatanen is on waivers, which is surprising. I can’t see him go through unclaimed. He has put up up decent results this season.

FWIW, Kulikov is cheaper, bigger, a LHD and has put up much better numbers on the same team.


I’m refreshing twitter way too often. Heart wants Hall. Head doesn’t quite agree. But why not go for it and why wait? Enough with hoarding picks and hoping they eventually work out.

Hall is better for the next 4 years over anyone we have or could draft. He solidifies two scoring lines and has the speed and smarts to play well for long enough to make it worth it.

Ok my head now agrees. Go get Hall. Use a first and dump some contacts or pull a Tampa or Toronto to make the money work if needed.


I don’t understand the comment re: hoarding picks.

The issue is they have traded away so many picks that, aside from the 1st, they don’t have draft pick currency this season.

This also shows the danger of spending picks for short term help – its empties the cupboards and makes it harder to improve in subsequent years.

If the Oilers don’t trade away the pick now, they have that asset for next year as well.

Timing can everything.


It’s like love the heart wants what the heart wants. I can understand but disagree. All that glitters is not gold!


Tell that to the Oilers when its Toronto Montreal in the Canadian div Finals better yet tell that to Connor and Drai and Nurse after they poured there futile hearts out


Hall will be free in the summer. Why trade assets for a rental unless asset is a UFA. Trade draft picks for players we can control. We got burned last year with AA


This post aged bad sadly. I agree Hall wouldve been very nice to have


If the Oilers trade for Hall, what’s the over/under that the Oilers end up losing both Hall trades?


Put it this way, the Canucks have a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup than Edmonton has of winning the trade.

90s fan

“So your saying theres a chance’.

Wait, you said Vancouver winning the cup? Crap. There isn’t a chance.

90s fan

I really do want hall now. Logic asks why not wait to summer, but I just get this sinking feeling hall signs a contract with whomever he is traded to.


He will sign a very friendly 4mil a year deal with Boston this summer Book it.


I think Dubas is pretty close to the best general manager in the league, but I don’t like this Foligno trade for the Leafs at all.

That is a high price for a playoff run for a third line player (at best).


Joe Sakic might have something to say about that. Steve Yzerman too. The tandem in Vegas. Cheveldayoff.

The Kadri deal is on Dubas’s record.

Harpers Hair

Foligno was brought in specifically to play with Tavares on the second line.

That will allow the Leafs to bump Galchenyuk (he has been playing very well) to the third line which will make them one of the best third lines in hockey.

Foligno should thrive in that role.


If he is so good why has Toronto folded the tent early in the playoffs. Their offence is excellent their D is one one man and Meh and the goal tending is slightly above average. D wins championships and balance is important. The centralist media builds up Toronto on a regular basis. This year given the uncertainties is their best chance in many years. The previous high chances were strictly hype!


Dubas got absolutely reamed by Marner’s agent.

no other general manager was coming close to giving that contract plus 4 1st rounders.

That contract was horrible the day it was signed.

The fact that he is throwing all his chips in this year reeks of desperation.

He created a small window for himself.

This might be his best chance.


Well if they get Hall what’s the over/under the Oil draft 1st overall after next season?


Assuming they resign Hall it is entirely possible that the Hall is the new Neal!


I would be afraid to go anything longer than 3 yrs with Hall


That is what I’m afraid of, if not a worse case scenario. The (expected) goal scoring would be nice but if it went south fast… not enough lipstick at Revlon could pretty that pig.


Another player added to the Canuck Covid-Protocol list so the opening of their facilities is delayed – not sure if that puts Friday’s rescheduled game in jeopardy or not.

Harpers Hair

Tracy Lane

Oilers making a final push (On Hall)

Last edited 1 month ago by Harpers Hair
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Please god! Neal + 1st/Broberg + other shit.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

But I am also scared. I do not think I can remember the last time the Oilers won a trade involving big assets.


Or Hall


They would not win the trade you just proposed. It’s like buying milk that is closing in on its expiration date. Looks really good now but it’s going to sour on you quickly. For this privilege you are willing to pay a first round pick and a young big fast D man that is as little as a year away from starting a lengthy NHL career plus other assets.


My money is on Boston


KH is just trying to drive up the price than back out leaving the competition to deplete their assets for next year when we make our run.


For dearest OP,

McDavid with Draisaitl without Barrie GF% 88.9% xGF% 68.6% (TOI 65 min)
McDavid with Barrie without Draisaitl GF% 42.3% xGF% 48.1% (TOI 248 min)
McDavid without both GF% 45% xGF% 61.9% (TOI 237 min)
McDavid with both GF% 69.6% xGF% 55.3% (TOI 165 min)

i.e. Barrie sucks. Barrie doesn’t help McDavid. Barrie is a parasite.

McDavid with Barrie is worse than McDavid without Barrie, period.


Foligno to Toronto for a first and two 4ths
Holy crap


If so, that’s six picks the BJ’s have acquired in the last 48 hours.

Detroit and Columbus will own everyone else’s picks at the deadline tomorrow!


They could draft half of Finland with all the picks they are hoarding.


One of the the 4th’s go to SJ

Last edited 1 month ago by €√¥£€^$

It’s a ridiculous price to pay for a middle-sixer deadline deal, but I guess Toronto has decided they will be happy with just one cup over the next 50 years too.

Hopefully they don’t Lightning bolt out of the playoffs, for their sakes.

Last edited 1 month ago by Munny

Foligno has 8 points at 5 on 5 this season (and 0.85 P/60) and two points on the PP. He’s rocking a 40% goals percentage.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fine add as a depth player that can PK a bit and provide size, experience and character for the playoffs but a first round pick, even a late one, is a big price for this player. Not to mention two fourth round picks to double slice the cap hit down.

Harpers Hair

You might want to take a look at what TBL paid for depth players last season.

Seems to have worked out okay.


Plenty more picks next year when they trade Seth Jones at the trade deadline


And Laine


CBJ hasn’t even traded Laine yet

Harpers Hair

Frank Seravalli


Hearing the Toronto Maple #Leafs have traded for Nick Foligno.

Harpers Hair

Frank Seravalli


Pending trade call. But there is a third team involved to broker the money.

Harpers Hair

Mike Pfeil

hearing john tortorella has already benched the draft pick the blue jackets got for foligno


This may shortly be moot, but:

You can have one of RNH or Hall at $6M x 5. Who do you choose?

(It’s Hall obvs, but let’s hear ’em)


What makes it obvious for Hall?

Hall is older
Hall is less versatile (does not play center)
Hall does not PK
Hall is a less responsible 2-way player
Hall is having a much worse season offensively (and he was playing alot with Eichel before he got hurt).


Particularly considering the team he’s on, Hall’s possession metrics are terrific this year. I’m pretty sure you’re not a shooting percentage queen…

Hall’s outscored Nuge by 100 points and is two years removed from a league-MVP season.

RNH’s returns with McDavid have not been overwhelmingly positive. He doesn’t win draws and won’t be a $ fit for the 3rd line.

Love Nuge, but he’s not a driver of offence the way Hall has been for his entire career. Other than shooting % and unbelievably tumultuous/shitty/unlucky team fit, I don’t see a ton of evidence that Hall is on a steep decline.

Happy to entertain the debate (which is why I asked the question), but unless Hall is actually halfway down a cliff, I don’t really see why you’d think 93 would help you win more that Hall would.

And I say this even though Hall is obviously TerRiBlE in tHe RoOm and slept with all of my girlfriends and their mothers.


The reason you would keep Nuge is very simple and that is with Hall’s style of play his body has taken a hell of a beating. The heart of the man is unquestionable but there reaches a point where the body just can’t comply. There is also the fact that Nuge is a multi faceted player and Taylor Hall is not. The reason Nuge isn’t getting the points has as much to do with having to be the defensive conscience for the line as anything else. Put Nuge back with Draisaitl and Yamamoto and watch a totally different Nuge.


Hall actually spent more time playing with Stall 5v5 than he did with Eichel and then slightly less time with Dylan Cozens
so after the first 10 games of the season
this is absolutely made up


Eichel spent half his 5 on 5 minutes with Hall and 69 out of his 72 PP minutes with Hall so, no, to say that he played alot with Eichel before he got hurt is simply truth.

To Ben, and thank you for the response, 100% Hall has been a more dynamic offensive player and creater than Nuge over their careers – that’s not deniable. With that said, its seems the entire premise of your argument is offence and “driving”.

Nope, Nugent-Hopkins is not an offensive driver and it seems Hall is still “driving” but, for me, “driving” doesn’t mean that much if it doesn’t come with production and Hall’s production has disappeared this year and has been regressing for a bit now.

Is this a cliff? I don’t know but it could very well be the start of the “other side” given age and style of play.

Nugent-Hopkins offence is also non-existent this season (at evens) but he has other attributes that Hall does not – ability to play center, the PK, more responsible defensive zone play and more responsible neutral zone play (i.e. doesn’t make dangerous neutral zone turnovers nearly as often), etc.


So you don’t even admit when Eichel spent more time with Olofsson as a LW than Hall 5v5


In fairness everyone so far believes that Hall is a driver and Nuge is not which means who Hall plays with shouldn’t be a big deal or am I misinterpreting what you are saying.


Hall patented play is, cross the offensive blue line, does a butt and hooks proceed to turn the puck over.


Any team that signs Hall is asking for trouble if the go longer than 3 years


Ennis and Neal back to the taxi squad today.

That is interesting given only 4 call-ups (non-emergency) are permitted after 1 tomorrow afternoon.

Presumably Holland will have a full 23 player roster (plus Nuge) at the time.


Im not buying this multiple trade offers involving a first round pick for Nick Foligno.
Sounds like a leak hoping to get someone to pay up a first round pick


This aged like fine poultry 🙂




Most people in here want Holland to add at the deadline.

Kyle Turris, Alex Chiasson, James Neal And Kassian….

So, you can imagine other cities thinking they have a fair shake at the cup as well.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

It looks like a glut of forwards/dearth of centers at the deadline this year. If Hall is willing to go $5M x 5 as reported and Nuge is looking for north of $6.5 x 5, what about bringing in Hall and moving Nuge at the deadline. Classic buy low (Hall)/sell high (Nuge) situation with assets/cap considerations in vs assets/cap considerations out favoring the Oil.

I am not convinced that Nuge is a better fit on the current roster than Hall with the way Tipp has decided to deploy his players. I would rather see Connor and Leon playing C with Hall on the wing than Leon on the same line with Connor and Nuge playing 2C. When you have two guys that can drive their own line, you don’t play them together on the same line … you just don’t.


Nuge can easily be replaced on the PP internally and has 12 EV points despite great linemates
Do not break the bank for him


I think you would be surprised at how hard he will be to replace on both the PK and the PP. if somebody else was as good they would already be doing it.


If James Neal went on LTIR today, that would open up $5.75M of cap space (if he was out for the remainder of the regular season) – of course, he’s not hurt….


Say no more. I know some guys. Consider it done, OP.

Last edited 1 month ago by Side

So does Tonya Harding



Seems to be heating up on the Nick Foligno front for #CBJ. Belief is multiple teams have put a 1st-round pick on the table for Jarmo Kekalainen to consider.

If that’s true, then no way Buffalo takes anything less than a 1st rounder for Hall…


I bet Foligno brings a better return than Hall. Less money, more teams can fit him in, and NHL teams value intangibles.

I will be pretty surprised if Hall brings back a first round pick without a bad contract going back.

It is not impossible to me that Hall is not traded at all because either no one wants him or they can’t fit him under the cap.


Yea, no one wants him lol

90s fan

Do we accrue cap space while RNH is on LTIR? If so, how much per week?

I assume its pretty negligible in terms of space to make a trade?

Last edited 1 month ago by 90s fan

RNH is on IR not LTIR. No savings.

90s fan

So IR simply frees up a roster spot?


Nugent-Hopkins isn’t on LTIR. Just on regular IR, costing his normal daily cap. He has to be on IR, 30 days to be eligible to be put on LTIR (or get an MD to sign off that his injury will legitimately extend beyond 30 days).


Two players out of LA that could be viable acquisition targets for Holland.

Iaffalo and Athanasiou.

I believe the Kings are in the course of trying to re-sign both before the deadline but, if they can’t sign them, they will likely be moved.

Yes, AA could be a reasonable bet – he will be MUCH cheaper to acquire than last season. Can’t see Holland going back there, of course, but, if he was never an Oiler last season, based on play this season, a reasonable cheap bet.


If we want to track scoring at 5v5, Pts/GP is a much better metric than P60.

Let’s compare season to season correlations between 5v5 Pts/GP and 5v5 P60 for forwards who play at least 120 5v5 minutes per season.

Season, 5v5 Pts/GP, 5v5 P60

2007, .66, .50
2008, .69, .53
2009, .69, .53
2010, .69, .53
2011, .67, .52
2012, .65, .50
2013, .67, .51
2014, .66, .51
2015, .64, .49
2016, .60, .42
2017, .67, .50
2018, .63, .46
2019, .60, .43

If we want to predict future performance at 5v5, Pts/GP is always and clearly superior to P60. This has always been the case even in the early days of hockey analytics. Somehow, somewhere, someone went with P60 measures, and they became the norm. You can’t get 5v5 Pts/GP off of NST unless you pull the data and do it yourself.

As I pointed out yesterday with Khaira, P60 leads to weird results for bottom 6 players because a couple of points here and there can greatly skew a player’s P60 if he has low TOI.

When you browse through the top performing forwards on P60, you’ll see stuff that makes you go hmm, like Donskoi ahead of Marner and Stone, Spezza ahead of MacKinnon, some guy named Ross Colton ahead of everybody.

Per 60 is an unwieldy number. Donskoi plays 10:35 a night and scores 2.97 per 60. CMD plays 16:19 a night and scores 2.96 per 60. That means it take about 6 games for Donskoi to produce those 2.97 point, while it takes about 4 games for Marner to do the same. If you compare the numbers straight up, you get into trouble, because you’re buying into the idea that Donskoi and Marner are comparable offensive talents. To arrive at a more meaningful comparison, how much do these players contribute to the team’s 5v5 offense on a nightly basis, you have to do some mental math.

Or you can skip the mental math and just use Pts/GP. Marner is 3rd in the league at .80 Pts/GP. It’s easy to understand, it produce rankings that make more sense, and it does a better job of predicting what future output is going to be.

Donskoi is having a great year even on the 5v5 Pts/GP standard. He’s tied for 43rd in the league at .525 Pts/GP. A great year, mid first-line rates, but not Marner like. That feels closer to the truth than what 5v5 P60 is telling us.

Pts/GP does an even better job of clarifying the relative ranking of lower tier players who show well on P60.

Khaira is also having a good year, scoring .35 Pts/GP, which is a bit above top-6 rates. P60, meanwhile, has him playing at 2.18, which is a comfortable top-3 rate. P60 has Spezza playing at a top 10 in the league rate while Pts/GP has him playing at a comfortable second line rate.

Pts/GP isn’t immune to head scratching results. TBL’s Ross Colton is scoring .67 5v5 Pts/GP (10 points in 15 games) putting him in the top 10 in the league. He’s managing to do that playing under 10 minutes a night. (Who is Ross Colton and what the heck, TBL?) But that also has him at 4.21 5v5 P60, more than a point ahead of CMD and Matthews. Crazy. Has to cool off, right?

P60 has been and continues to be a bad choice for anyone interested in using math to evaluate forward offensive play. It’s the worst of available choices if you want to know what’s going to happen (5v5 Pts/GP, EV Pts/GP, all-situations Pts/GP in increasing order of predictive power, right in step with increasing sample sizes of player performance). It’s hard to translate into something that maps onto actual game play. It yields janky results for bottom-6 forwards and wonky rankings of forwards in general. P60 also creates a bad mental model of game play as it suggests that we view forward offense as a constant rate in every minute he plays, as opposed to viewing his offense as a unit of production for every game he plays.

It’s too bad NST defaults to per 60 measures for rates. They’re a tremendously useful site. They’d do a lot of good by checking the math and switching to per GP for their rates.


This is a convincing argument and you very well may be correct that P/GP is a better indicator of success, but P/60 is not without value. It sheds some light on which forwards are playing well in their roles and who may be ready for a step up in responsibility.


The relationship between 5v5 Pts/GP and 5v5 P60 is very strong (typically, r=.95). If P60 sheds some positive light on a player, it’s very likely that Pts/GP will as well. The higher year to year correlation for 5v5 Pts/GP shows that the light that Pts/GP sheds, while still flickering and not very reliable, tends to be truer than the light from P60. Anything 5v5 P60 can do, 5v5 Pts/GP can do better.


You make an astute point here (and yesterday, and every other time) which has made me think about this.

That said, while there is a sense in which you are clearly right, there is an absurdity to your view which while empirically correct, cannot possibly be true. Namely, that the denominator of GP is better for understanding a subset of games (5on5 play).

Now, I am convinced that it is more predictive, but if that is the case it is because of the confounding variable of coaches decisions, which tends to assign TOI and power play time (which inflates pts/Games) to those who are better players at 5on5. In which case, the measure tells us who coaches think are the better players.

In which case it is a better predictive measure for two reasons. 1) Because coaches are good at figuring out who the best players are, and 2) even when they make a mistake those players get more opportunity and hence more points.

The larger point, however, is that when we look at these numbers we usually aren’t looking to see who plays the most, or who coaches like the most, but who is underappreciated in their current situation.

In which case, even if it is less predictive, we need a measure that does not include the confounding variable of coaches opinion. And this is why rate stats continue to be more important.

All of this said, the reason that pts/60 is less predictive seems to be obvious and you’ve allude to it. 1) The sample is too small. 2) The result is affected by context (teammates especially).

I don’t think these are reasons not to use pts/60, but they are definitely reasons to be wary of pts/60, and to consider in a holistic judgment of the player. As always.


The league does tend to be conservative on allocating TOI for forwards. The year-to-year correlations are in the r=.8 range. Players largely stick to their pre-determined roles.

It’s (sort of) surprising you think the P60 rate stats don’t include coaches’ opinions. The coach decides how much you play, who you play with, who you play against, in what situations you play, and, to a large extent, how you play (your tactics, set plays, priorities, and objectives). Do you really think a player’s minutes are a blank canvas?

I’ve been following the Oil more closely since CMD arrived. It’s extraordinary the impact that HC’s have on players’ careers, given how few out and out stars there are in this league.

The poster boy around here for 5v5 P60, underappreciated in their current situation, is Connolly, a 3rd line player who showed better on 5v5 P60 than he did on 5v5 Pts/GP.

The inference a high 5v5 P60 invites (and Connolly was top 20 in the league in his contract year) is that the player has high offensive skill, and, because TOI is positively related to offensive production, the player should play more.

Connolly had a good but not extraordinary history on 5v5 Pts/GP. His contract year was the only year that suggested he was anything but a bottom 6 player. In Connolly’s case, at least, Pts/GP was closer to right, given the player’s status a couple of years out.

The thing you’re missing, intentionally or otherwise, is that player stats are supposed to tell us what happened and, more importantly for decision-making purposes, what’s going to happen. Why would anyone care about P60 if it had no relationship to future results? Cargo cult?

For the job of telling us what’s going to happen, 5v5 Pts/GP is better. 5v5 Pts/GP has a stronger relationship to future 5v5 Pts/GP than 5v5 P60 with future 5v5 P60. In fact, Pts/GP has a stronger relationship to future P60 than P60 itself!

You see most of the reasons why this is the case.

I did this round before using all situations Pts/GP, which is the best predictor of future offensive performance. But I can see why people would want to separate out the 5v5 or ES game states. Turns out, Pts/GP remains the better choice in those contexts as well.


The problem with points/GP is that it ain’t sexy. There is nothing more advanced than the old school points total (the old 30points 30 points and 5 points player that was used before the new ago advanced stats became vogue).


Awesome post,
In the immortal words of fake George Steinbrenner:
“Hire this man!”


I may have asked this before. Are the correlations you perform rank (spearman) or raw (pearson)? There is more variance in P/60 than P/GP, so it will necessarily show lower raw correlations.


What do you mean by that?

corr(X, Y) = cov(X, Y) / [sd(X) * sd(Y)]

The variance (or sd) of X and Y are scaling factors to ensure correlation has a value between +1 and -1. It’s the covariance of the two variables, not their individual variances, that determines the magnitude of their linear correlation.


Thanks for this. Good for this old math challenged bean.

Harpers Hair

Montreal going all in.


Montreal #Canadiens have made the following transactions:

Leskinen, Evans, & Primeau assigned to taxi squad

This leaves the club with $2.825M in LTIR relief available to use


Of the forwards reputed to be available, they appear to be interchangeable but they aren’t. Some are good and some are not, but the prices seem very low this year so while I think trading the farm is a bad idea, trading assets that aren’t that valuable to the team is a good idea.

All this depends on price but, of those reputed to be available, these players are good and will help the Oilers:


These players are not good and won’t help:


Ok player but the cost per value not likely to be a good trade


They could use a LHD but that guy isn’t on the market.

The problem is that the Oilers can’t get the good players on the list without trading Neal or Kassian, but if they could put Neal or Kassian into the deal they can’t lose the trade.

Benson, Marody, Mcleod, the first round pick, all of these things should be available. There is an opportunity here to improve the team in the long and short term. Who knows if the other team will bite, but it seems like the market is flooded with wingers and someone is going to get good players for cheap.


We have been looking for a third line centre for awhile. McLeod should be an untouchable as he brings size speed and skill. Most importantly is a cost controlled player for the years the team will be challenging for a Stanley Cup. Add Holloway and young cost controlled D and we are building something very special.


We are fully in the space where Oiler management is criticized in relation to every transaction around the league that is consummated.

Serentity Now!

Gamma Cassiopeiae

“Serentity” Synonym for “Calm your tits!”.

Gerta Rauss

You’re not giving away our Waterpick..!!


Victor Mete is an obvious guy to claim. Only 22, great skater, low salary and you get him for free.

Worst case scenario is you take him and put Lagesson on the taxi squad. Mete is three years younger and a much better pedigree. That is an easy call.

That said, I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t claimed before he got to the Oilers. Hell, why would the Sabres pass on him?


Why didn’t they just throw him in to the red wings


Sabres claimed Cagguila a few days ago, the Oilers (Stalock) are only ahead of Ottawa (Forsberg), Vancouver (Boyd) & Buffalo as far as waiver priority.

Several teams (Detroit or Chicago come to mind) should be all over this.

Last edited 1 month ago by €√¥£€^$

No – waiver priority goes by standings at this point, in inverse order.

Oilers are in the middle of the order – I believe 13th.


If Habs didn’t rush Mete he would probably be a highly rated prospect right now.


Why did we play 3 games in 4 nights to have 5 days off to play 3 games in 4 nights again ??


The schedule is bonkers


Connor McDavid also made a good point too. Why did they have to play the same day that the Cave memorial was happening?

Nothing like 3 games in 4 nights and playing after an emotionally draining day of celebrating a friend and teammates life.


I didn’t know about the memorial no way in hell they should of played. When your commissioner only dreams about money this is the product.


Same. I knew the 5050 was for Cave but I had no clue the memorial was the same day. It’s another awful look for the league.


Last night’s game was because of TV and satisfying Rogers…. otherwise it could have been today.


The Habs are looking like a team that thinks it’s a contender a year or two before getting blown up


While he’s not a game changer, would anyone be interested in Mete? I don’t know the advanced stats, but appears to be a decent defender and pretty good puck mover (not a shooter though).
However at only $750K and an expiring contract, isn’t he currently a better option than Jones or Laggesson? While I like Willy, I don’t think he brings anything a hundred other young available defenders do whileMete is an NHL defence man. You could waive Willy and not worry if he clears or not. Put Mete with Larsson and hope for better results than Russel, Jones or Laggesson put in that spot. No change in cap if Laggesson gets claimed or put back to the farm

Last edited 1 month ago by Primetime

I didn’t see this before I posted above, but this is an easy call. I don’t think he is better than Jones, but he is definitely better than Lagesson.

But I can’t see how he could drop to the Oilers. Why would any of the bad teams pass on taking a chance on him, while they are currently subtracting from their rosters.

That said, it is weird that he wasn’t included in the Merrill trade if the Canadians are just going to give him away for free anyway.


forgot to mention he would not have to quarantine either, so has all week to practice with the team to get up to speed.


Actually looks like if we really wanted Hall we could make it work with Buffalo retaining 50% and taking Chaisson and another team taking 50% of Halls cap hit

90s fan

I think chiasson is the key to all this.


That could be done but what are the value assets out – both to Buffalo for Hall (while retaining) and then more assets to the other team to take a cap hit?

The Oilers would need to outbid other teams as well – even with Hall’s NMC, I presume he would waive for any team that has interest in him as it would be playoff teams that have interest.

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
#RedWings trade Jon Merrill to #Habs for Hayden Verbeek and a 2021 5th round pick.

Harpers Hair

Max Bultman (@m_bultman) Tweeted:
First impression: that is one hell of a trade for Montreal. Merrill has been one of Detroit’s best defensemen this season. He makes less than $1 million. He’ll help the Canadiens in the playoffs. To get him for a fifth-rounder is a great bit of work by the Canadiens


People here need to seriously relax! The team is going to the playoffs. It had to play 4 games in 6 days and played a rested team. Judge the roster come playoff time. The important thing is be healthy and ready to go in a month. Last but not least, if they want to make a trade, target a RAKELL, SILFVERBERG, ARVIDSSON, JARNKROK………but please stay away from HALL….


Weird. I’m kinda resigned our fate this year. Don’t think we’re good enough to make a deep run – although I won’t be shocked if we win the division – but we don’t have the cap space to acquire a top six winger. Adding depth players is fine, but I think the real problem with this team is the top six. 

I’ll be very very disappointed if Holland nibbles around the edges in the off season.


They could win the division just as much as they could go out in the first round. The team has come a long way and will have cap space come the summer. Keep in mind that you can’t spend money all over so they will have to be smart. Again, the key tonight was not bringing in hall. The Oilers need to be patient with their youth. Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bear, Jones, Macleod, Holloway, etc… the success will come….


Holland’s summer to-do list.
re-sign Larsson and Nuge;
buyout Neal;
right shot 2C;
internal options for rest of team.


If Holland gets Nuge under contract why does he need to get a 2C? Where are Nuge and Drai playing?


If you have to ask.
29 / 97 / 13
93 / 2C / 56

nuge is better off as a winger. 29 and 97 are just to dynamite to keep apart.


Nuge is a better winger playing without McD or Drai as his centre than he is as a 2C? I’m not buying that without seeing your proof.


Try to off-load Koskinen in a package deal with ? There should be all kinds of wheeling and dealing around the league with the Kraken joining.


He absolutely needs to bring in at least two wingers.IMO it will be an epic failure if we don’t have two new wingers capable of playing in the top six.

Bag of Pucks

A shout-out to Corey Connors. C’mon dude, we’re pulling for ya. Grip it and rip it! 🇨🇦


Needs to shoot a 64 you can do it Corey get that flat stick going.


Gusev to FLA for $1M, 1 year

John Chambers

I predict that Ken Holland will trade the 2022 2nd round pick for Andreas Athanasiou.


You dirty son of a bitch!!


Only one?
Holland is learning


Leavins reporting in Cult of Hockey that Hall may take 5 x 5 on his next contract. He is plugged in and I trust that.

I would trade for Hall. Use the opportunity to get rid of some junk contracts, even if it means parting with a real asset.

Look at Woodguy’s goal differential numbers below.

The ship is leaking with 97 w/o 29 and with both 97 and 29 off. Look at the top 6 wingers; everyone’s EV scoring is starting to dry up as the games get tighter.

No way this team escapes the first round without a substantive upgrade.


You need to move Kassian or Neal to do this and that would require at least 2 first round picks or equivalent

90s fan

Why can’t buffalo just swallow Halls entire cap?

Material Elvis

That’s against CBA rules, which only allow 50% salary retention (including bonuses).

90s fan

Ok. Well I guess that’s a good rule … so we would need to train back a 4 mil. contract, or 2 2mill? Like Turris and chiasson?

Last edited 1 month ago by 90s fan

Although Detroit seems to be willing to swallow extra 50% for low price of a 4th


That’s not entirely true as Lighting demonstrated yesterday
2 teams can take 50% of cap for 75%

Material Elvis

Yes. Two teams could do that. A single player contract can have a maximum of two salary retentions, as per the CBA.


You need to move Kassian or Neal to do this and that would require at least 2 first round picks or equivalent

Koskinen is also a possibility. And wouldn’t require multiple 1sts.

Material Elvis

What do you think it would take to get rid of Neal’s contract? One year of Marleau cost the Leafs a 1st, so that helps to establish the price. As a follow up, what do you think it would take to get rid of Kassian’s contract?


That was pre flat cap. Not sure in today’s flat cap.


I’ve been on record a few times as saying a 1st round pick is not enough to get rid of the rest of Neal’s contract.

I think the value disposed of would need to be a 1st round pick and a Lavoie/Samorukov level prospect – maybe even more.

I see lots and lots of proposals similar to a 1st, Jones and Neal for Hall (with some retained).

I think the 1st and Jones might be enough to get rid of Neal (maybe not though) but not enough to get rid of Neal and add Hall (especially if there is retaining).

I would think many teams can put out better value offers for the Sabres – yes, Hall has a NMC but I don’t think he’s weaponizing it to get back to Edmonton.


I really don’t know.

Some folks were talking about Kassian being tradeable (like for a pick) not so long ago.

I don’t think that’s realistic, but 2 firsts is also a reach IMO. He has skill and is a sought after player type. Though him playing (well) with McDavid seems a distant memory.

Neal might actually cost 2 firsts. He’s not even a regular at this point. I wouldn’t even consider trying to trade him and expect a buyout in the summer.


Hearing about the Oilers in on Nemeth and it’s just another shoulder shrug of a deadline.

Not going to move the needle.